Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 13, 2017

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GBP/JPY is under pressure and expected to continue the downside movement. The pair is under pressure below the key resistance at 148.95, which should maintain the upside potential. The relative strength index is bearish below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum.

Therefore, as long as 148.95 holds on the upside, look for a new decline to 148.00 and even to 147.75 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 148.95 with the target at 148.00.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 148.95, Take Profit: 148.00

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 149.30, 149.70 and 150.20

Support levels: 148.00, 148.15, and 147.45

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Bitcoin analysis for November 13, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $5,636. Gavin Andresen is the latest significant player in bitcoin to pledge support for bitcoin cash, referring to it as the chain most true to Satoshi's original vision. In a tweet published on the 12th of November, Andresen has emphasized his belief that the high fees associated with BTC are undermining it as an effective means of exchange. The technical picture looks bearish due to a downward gap in the background.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time - frame, I found a bearish flag in progress, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a successful rejection from the supply trendline and overbought conditions on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The first downward target is set at the price of $5,652.

Support/Resistance

$6.765 – Intraday resistance

$5.652 – Support 1

$5.370 – Support 2

$4.950 – Support 2

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EUR/USD analysis for November 13, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1669. According to the 15M time – frame, I found testing of Friday's high at the price of 1.1675, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found overbought conditions on the stochastic oscillator, which is sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1633 (pivot support 1) and at the price of 1.1600 (pivot support 2).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1688

R2: 1.1710

R3: 1.1743

Support levels:

S1: 1.1633

S2: 1.1600

S3: 1.1577

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 13, 2017

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NZD/USD is Under pressure and expected to trade in a lower range. The pair is clearly in a down trend, and also remains under pressure below its key resistance at 0.6950. Both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are heading downward now, and should continue to push the prices lower. Last but not least, the relative strength index is mixed to bearish, and is below its neutrality area at 50.

Hence, as long as 0.6935 is not surpassed, look for a new pullback to 0.6890 and 0.6870 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6950, 0.6965, and 0.7000

Support levels: 0.6890, 0.687, and 0.6835

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Analysis of Gold for November 13, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,277.45. According to the 30M time – frame, I found broken intraday bearish flag below the pivot level ($1,278.75), which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,270.60 (pivot support 1) and at the price of $1,265.25.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,284.05

R2: $1,292.40

R3: $1,297.65

Support levels:

S1: $1,270.45

S2: $1,265.25

S3: $1,256.80

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 13/11/2017

This week's event is Tuesday's presentation of the four major global central banks (the Fed, the ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan) at the European Central Bank's "Challenges in Policy Effectiveness, Responsibility, and Reputation Communication" conference in Frankfurt, Germany. Discussion can be an opportunity (planned?) for coordinated action by the central bankers on the financial markets. The majority of economists thinks it can take the form of a confirmation of the direction of monetary policy in the most important economic regions of the world (tightening), ensuring win against deflation and signals of inflation return and, most importantly, warnings of markets that current prices are too low, cost of money and future interest rates. This prediction brings with it the potential for a stronger deterioration of moods and a drop in risk appetite on the financial markets in the next weeks.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The Euro might be strongly impacted by the conference conclusions, but so far the bull camp looks too weak to continue the bonce after the failure at the trend line resistance around the level of 1.1676. Moreover, the trending conditions look overbought and the upwards momentum is diminishing. If the conference outlook will be worse than expected, the price might continue the downside move towards the technical support at the level of 1.1554 and below.

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Global macro overview for 13/11/2017

The Federal Budget Balance data measures the difference in value between the federal government's income and spending during the previous month. The October budget statement from the Treasury will mark the beginning of the fiscal year 2018. During the fiscal year 2017, the budget deficit increased to $666 bn, from $586 bn during the previous fiscal year. In June 2017, the CBO estimated a somewhat smaller deficit in the fiscal year 2018 ($563bn) owing to a modest increase in individual income tax payments. Historically, outlays outpace receipts in October. This is why a budget deficit during the first month of the fiscal year 2018 would not be unexpected. Consensus expects a deficit of $50bn for October.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The sequence of the higher highs and higher lows continues since the FED interest rate decision in September. The price is respecting the golden trend line dynamic support and so fat it reached the level of 95.15. The upward outlook is being supported by the oversold trading conditions which make the likelihood of a short-term advance more probable. The first target is at the level of 95.15 and the next one is at the level of 95.44.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 13, 2017

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Overview:

  • The market opened below the first resistance 1 (1.1665). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.1665 to the bottom around 1.1640. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1665 followed by 1.1737, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1535. The EUR/USD pair broke support which turned into strong resistance at 1.1665. Today, the pair is trading below this level. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the support (1.1665) which is expected to act as minor resistance today. This would suggest a bearish market because the moving average (100) is still in a negative area and does not show any signs of a trend reversal at the moment. Amid the previous events, the EUR/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.1665 and 1.1535, so we expect a range of 130 pips in coming days. Therefore, the major resistance can be found at 1.1665 providing a clear signal to sell with a target seen at 1.1665. If the trend breaks the minor support at 1.1609, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level of 1.1553 in order to test the double bottom. Overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay below the zone of 1.1665 today.
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 13, 2017

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Overview:

  • Since last week the GBP/USD pair is still moving upwards above the level of 1.3017. The first support level is currently seen at 1.3017. The price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.3017, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade between 1.3017 and 1.3298. So, the support is seen at 1.3017, while daily resistance is found at 1.3298. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3017. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the zone of 1.3017 with the first target at the level of 1.3298; and continue towards 1.3655 in coming days. On the other hand, if the GBP/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3298 today, the market will decline further to 1.2820 (50% Fibonacci retaracement levels).
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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 13, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

If the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback can be expected towards 0.7050 if the current bullish pullback persists above 0.6970 ( Intraday Key-level ).

Trade recommendations:

If the current bullish pullback persists towards 0.7050, a valid SELL entry can be offered around there.

S/L should be placed above 0.7100. T/P levels to be placed at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6830.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 13, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Trade Recommendations

Recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicates evident bullish recovery and a possible short-term BUY entry. This scenario remains valid as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.

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Bitcoin analysis for 13/11/2017

In an official statement released on Thursday, Tom Zander praised BitcoinCash and said that its value means that Bitcoin Classic's performance would be more than that, believing that within half a year BTC would stop adding "Cash" and that we would start calling it a new " Bitcoin. Bitcoin Cash increased its value by 35% in the face of expectations and, following the cancellation of SegWit2x, a large portion of investors decided to shift their capital to split the chain.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The reversal from the wave five to at the level of $7,886 has happened as anticipated. Moreover, the decline toward the level of $5,534 is impulsive, so it might be a beginning of the new cycle down. The most important level for bears is now the technical resistance at the level of $6,982 and it might be tested as another leg upward is currently in progress ( possibly wave 2 or B). The weekly range measure by last week down candle size is now between the levels of $7,886 - $5,548, so it was almost reached already.

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Trading plan for 13/11/2017

Monday's opening brings the sale of the British Pound under the influence of the weekend press. The Nikkei225 marks a sudden drop, pulling in USD/JPY and giving a negative signal to the markets in Europe. The fall on the Japanese stock exchange woke up the Gold bears. The ounce price rises to $1,277 from $1,273 reached on Wednesday.

On Monday 15th of November, the event calendar is light in important data releases. Only two news might have an impact on the financial markets today: Federal Budget Balance data from the US and Retail Sales data from New Zealand.

GBP/USD analysis for 13/11/2017:

The Cable dived from 1.3190 to 1.3120 and as the perpetrator indicates the weekend UK press releases. The Sunday Times reports that as many as forty MPs of his Conservative Party are ready to sign a censure letter to Prime Minister Theresa May. To dismiss the Prime Minister this way, the British law requires 48 votes. This is another May's problem after the sex scandal in Westminster and the recent resignation of two ministers. In addition, another article reports that the EU is preparing for a possible breakdown of the Brexit negotiations. Although the creation of an emergency plan does not imply a desire to use it, a reminder of such a vision raises concerns.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market was rejected at the technical resistance at the level of 1.3220 and currently is trading near the technical support at the level of 1.3087. Any breakout lower would likely result in a test of the key near-term support at the level of 1.3030. Weak upward momentum is supporting this view.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY test the trend line resistance

The price of USD/JPY has failed to rally above the black trend line resistance around the level of 113.75 and currently is reversing towards the technical support at the level of 112.94. Any breakout below this level would immediately open the road towards the next technical support at the level of 112.27.

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Market Snapshot: Gold fails to rally higher

The price of Gold has broken the golden trend line, but so far it fails to rally higher in order to confirm the breakout as the nearest technical resistance at the level of $1,290 still has not been violated. Currently, the price is trading in the middle of the narrow range at the level of $1,276. Any breakout lower would accelerate sell-off towards the level of $1,265.

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Trading Plan for November 13-17, 2017

Trading Plan for November 13-17, 2017

The general picture: the second week without important news.

So, the second week started without important news for the FOREX market: there is a lull in the market.

On Wednesday there will be data on retail sales in the US for October and inflation data on retail prices - usually this news is not the first order, but in a situation of stagnation, this may cause the market may move.

For the euro -we buy from 1.1625 and are waiting for an attempt to break through 1.1690 up.

For GBPUSD: we see a continuation of the consolidation that has been repetitive all in the range of 1.3020 and 1.3320 - we are waiting for a breakthrough and we are preparing positions in the direction of the breakthrough.

In the weekend, bitcoin showed a strong drop of 30% - and although a significant part of the fall was reversed immediately - this is a significant signal for a long stop.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for November 13, 2017

The Dollar index is trading right above the important medium-term trend line support at 94.40. The price remains inside the Kumo and has not broken below it. The price is making higher highs. So far bulls remain in control. A strong upward move will come very soon as long as we trade above 94.40.

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Blue line - medium-term trend support trend line

The Dollar index is testing the blue trend line support. Price is inside the 4-hour Kumo. The trend is neutral. Resistance is at 94.85. Break above it and we are heading towards 96.20. Support is at 94.35, break it and we have started the next leg down to 88.

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On a weekly basis, price remains below the kijun-sen and the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Break above 95.30 and we could very well move towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the weekly Kumo resistance at 97.90.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for November 13, 2017

Gold price made a sharp reversal on Friday getting rejected once again at the $1,283-88 resistance area and where we also warned that the important 61.8% Fibonacci retracement was. Price has now tested the Ichimoku cloud support and is bouncing.

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Gold has pulled back towards the 4 hour Kumo support and holds above it. Price is bouncing off that support. As long as price is above this support at $1,272, we remain short-term bullish. Breaking below it will open the way for a move to new lows towards $1,245-50. However if price makes a higher low here and moves higher towards $1,290, this would be a very bullish sign.

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On a daily basis, the candle formation is bearish as price got rejected at the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) and also closed below the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). Bulls need to break above last week's high in order for price to move towards the Daily Kumo (cloud) resistance at $1,294-$1,301. Gold long-term view remains bullish. We have either started the upward move or we need one more final low towards $1,250.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Last minute burning forecast 13.11.2017

Last minute burning forecast 13.11.2017

EURUSD: Growth is expected, focus is on buying.

The EURUSD pair ended the week in favor of buyers: the closing of the day and the week moved near highs.

Important news are not expected until the middle of the week.

The most likely scenario is the euro's rise towards 1.1690 and an attempt to break this important level upwards. In case of success - the path is at 1.1790.

Keep buying from 1.1625, while the stop loss is at 1.1580. Buying can be done at a breakthrough of 1.1690 upwards.

Alternative option - in case of a full spread, sell for a break down at 1.1550.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 13, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for a new impulsive rally towards 1.7770 as the next larger upside target. Short term, we expect support at 1.6614 will protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 1.6890 for a rally to and above resistance at 1.7216.

R3: 1.7216

R2: 1.7059

R1: 1.6853

Pivot: 1.6695

S1: 1.6614

S2: 1.6545

S3: 1.6518

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6770 with stop placed at 1.6610.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 13, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for a move closer to resistance at 133.15 to complete wave ii and set the stage for a strong decline in wave iii towards 128.36.

A clear break below support at 131.60 will confirm that wave (E) is developing towards the ideal target seen at 123.43.

R3: 133.15

R2: 132.84

R1: 132.50

Pivot: 132.00

S1: 131.60

S2: 131.47

S3: 131.36

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 132.30 was hit for a small profit of 29 pips. We will sell EUR at 133.10

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for November 13, 2017

USD/JPY has been quite corrective and volatile recently after rejecting off the 114.50 resistance area for several times. USD has been quite mixed with the economic reports whereas JPY could not gain in the moment due to worse economic reports. Today JPY PPI report was published with a positive outcome of 3.4% which was an increase from the previous value of 3.1% which was expected to be unchanged and Prelim Machinery Tools Orders report is going to be published which is also expected to have an increased value from the previous value of 45.0%. Along with these economic reports, today Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda is going to speak about the upcoming interest rates decisions and monetary policies which are expected to be quite neutral in nature. On the USD side, today FOMC Member Harker is going to speak about the upcoming interest rates decisions and monetary policies which are expected to be quite hawkish in nature providing a hint about the December Rate Hike. This week USD has several high impact economic reports to be published, like Retail Sales, Building Permits, Unemployment Claims etc. which are expected to help the gains of the USD in the coming days. To sum up, USD economic reports are forecasted with mixed expectations and any negative outcome of the reports may lead to further gains on JPY side and positive outcomes of USD report is expected to push the price higher. As of the current scenario, USD has a higher probability of gaining over JPY in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing inside the corrective range of 113.00 to 114.50 area where the dynamic level of 20 EMA is acting as a reliable support to hold the price higher recently. As the price remains above the dynamic level of 20 EMA with a daily close the bullish bias is expected to continue with the target towards 114.50 and later to break above it with the target towards 115.50 resistance area. On the other hand, if the price breaks below 113.00 with a daily close then we will be looking forward to selling with the target towards 111.60 support area in the future.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for November 13, 2017

EUR/USD has been quite volatile recently after breaking below the 1.1670 support area. Due to recent worse economic reports from USD, the currency was unable to dominate EUR as it was expected but as of the upcoming Rate Hike decision in December, a bearish pressure is expected to hit the pair in the coming days. Today FOMC Member Harker is going to speak about the Interest Rate Hike in December and upcoming rate hikes which are expected to be quite hawkish for the currency. On the USD side, there are several high impact economic reports to be published this week including Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, PPI and Building Permits which are forecasted to be mixed in the outcome, but any positive result will lead to further gain against EUR this week. On the other hand, today EUR German WPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.6%, the impact of the economic report is expected to be minimal on the currency whereas the upcoming economic events like Draghi is going to speak twice this week about the interest rates and monetary policies which are expected to have good impact on the EUR growth in the coming days. As of the current scenario, the correction is expected to last a bit longer until one of the currency in the pair takes the lead to direct the price in one direction with the positive economic reports. To sum up, USD is expected to have an upper hand over EUR and gain further in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA and horizontal level of 1.1670 level as resistance. The price has been quite corrective in nature after it was broken earlier last week but with several rejections off the level the bearish pressure was not quite up to the mark to push the price lower. As the price remains below 1.1670-1.1700 resistance area the bearish bias is expected to continue with the target towards 1.1300 support area in the coming days.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 13, 2017

EUR/USD: The bias on the EUR/USD is bearish, but the price has been making some faint bullish effort (especially on Friday). The outlook for the market is bullish for this week (and so it is for some EUR pairs), and therefore, the price may go upwards to form a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF is bullish in the long-term, but bearish in the short-term. Further bearish movement is expected this week, but it may not be significant because USD would maintain some stamina. The support levels at 0.9900, 0.9850 and 0.9800 would be tested before the end of the week.

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GBP/USD: The outlook on the GBP/USD is currently neutral. A directional bias is expected this week, when price either goes above the distribution territory at 1.3300, or it goes below the accumulation territory at 1.3050 (either of these would require a strong buying or selling pressure). The most likely direction on the GBP/USD is to the upside; whereas GBP may rally against some other currencies like AUD and NZD.

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USD/JPY: This pair is bullish in the long-term, but bearish in the short-term. Price may make some attempts to go upwards this week, owing to a bullish outlook on USD. There are demand levels at 113.00 and 112.50. On the other hand, there are supply levels at 114.00 and 114.50.

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EUR/JPY: This cross is neutral both in the long-term and the short-term. There is an expectation of a strong directional bias this week, which would most probably be in favor of bulls. The price may rise from the current area in the chart, to reach the supply zones at 132.50 (which was tested on Friday), 133.00 and 134.50.

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NZD/USD finally dropping nicely, remain bearish

The price has started to drop really nicely from our selling area and has broken an ascending support-turned-resistance line triggering a change in momentum. We remain bearish looking to sell on strength below major resistance at 0.6968 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, bearish divergence) for a push down to at least 0.6827 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (89,5,3) is dropping nicely from our resistance and has good downside potential.

Sell below 0.6968. Stop loss is at 0.7043. Take profit is at 0.6827.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 13, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German WPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Mortgage Delinquencies, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1704.

Strong Resistance:1.1697.

Original Resistance: 1.1686.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1675.

Target Inner Area: 1.1647.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1619.

Original Support: 1.1608.

Strong Support: 1.1597.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1590.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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AUD/USD remain bullish above strong support

The price continues to hover above our buying area. We remain bullish looking to buy on dips above 0.7628 major support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, Long-term Fibonacci retracement) for a push up to at least 0.7730 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (55,3,1) is rising nicely with good upside potential.

Buy above 0.7628. Stop loss is at 0.7556. Take profit is at 0.7730.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Nov 13, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y and PPI y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Mortgage Delinquencies. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 114.21.

Resistance. 2: 113.99.

Resistance. 1: 113.76.

Support. 1: 113.49.

Support. 2: 113.26.

Support. 3: 113.04.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for November 13, 2017

The index trimmed gains during Friday's session and it continued to extend the decline below the 200 SMA at the H1 chart. The next support is located at the 93.97 level, where bears could gather momentum to continue on the path in the short-term. However, if it manages to break above the moving average, then it can reach the resistance level of 95.14.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.14 / 95.85

H1 chart's support levels: 94.60 / 93.97

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.14, take profit is at 95.85 and stop loss is at 94.47.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 13, 2017

The pair is looking to break above the psychological level of 1.3200, waiting to reach the next resistance placed around 1.3309, which should be the line in the sand for GBP/USD in order to advance with the bulls' price action across the board. To the downside, if it breaks below 1.3037, then it can plummet towards the 1.2880 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3201 / 1.3309

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3037 / 1.2880

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3037, take profit is at 1.2880 and stop loss is at 1.3193.

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The dollar finished the week lower

The dollar ended the week with a slight decline, for the first time in a month. The decline is primarily due to market reaction towards the tax reform plan proposed on Thursday. The final document was slightly worse than market expectations, based on preliminary statements by Trump and Treasury Minister Mnuchin, and could also reduce the attractiveness of the US stock market as a result.

At the same time, the tax reform aims to increase the attractiveness of U.S. assets, promote the repatriation of capital and revitalize business activity. These measures are necessary against the backdrop of weak growth rates of real incomes of the population. As the drop in consumer demand intensifies deflationary pressure and can lead to yet another wave of recession in the near future.

Slowing inflation in the US - this is currently the most important threat to the plans of the government and the Fed. Since January 2017, the main consumption expenditure has lost about 0.5% in price, similar rates of core inflation, calculated by an alternative method, have similar rates of slowing down.

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Such a decline is almost entirely the result of the fall in prices for basic services, which accounts for about 0.45 percentage points, but for basic goods - it is only 0.05 percentage points. This includes the decline in demand for financial services, lower prices in the telecommunications sector, medicine and housing prices.

At the same time, employment reached its peak, the jobless rate fell to 4.1% in October, its further decline is almost impossible, the growth rates of creating new jobs is expected to slow down. On the labor market, there is a struggle not for quantitative indicators, but for qualitative indicators, that is, for changing the structure of employment in favor of full-time jobs and with fairly high qualifications. It is entirely uncertain whether this task will be solved. Therefore, the expectations of a rise in the average wage might not be realized. Accordingly, the main condition for the growth of inflation, namely, the increase in real incomes of the population - is under threat.

In order to eliminate this concern and to provide an answer to the call for tax reform. The Senate began to consider changes in legislation proposed by the Ministry of Finance. A strong decrease in the tax burden is an attempt to raise real incomes of the population and improve effective demand. However, it also brings forward another problem - a sharp increase in the budget deficit.

The U.S. House Committee on the Budget summed up the results of the 2017 financial year, which ended on September 30. The results - the growth of the budget deficit reached 666 billion dollars, or 3.5% of the US GDP, an increase from 3.2% a year earlier.

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Income from income taxes, the largest source of budget revenues, grew by 3%, and from the wage fund (social insurance) - by 4%, while revenues from corporate profits declined. At the same time, budget spending grew by about 3%, the trend is steady. In October, the deficit stood at 62 billion, which is 27% higher than in October 2016.

In other words, the growth of revenues from the two main sources of budget filling did not decrease, but instead had raised the deficit. What will happen if the implementation of the tax reform begins simultaneously with the tightening of the financial conditions held by the Fed?

Income to the budget will significantly drop from all the main sources of income, while at the same time the cost of servicing the public debt will increase, and on defense - at least not be reduced. Such consequences of the ongoing reforms will accelerate the growth of the budget deficit, the rate of this growth will be much higher than the figures set in the baseline scenario of the NWE, according to which by 2027, the annual budget deficit may reach 1.5 trillion dollars.

Basically, the Trump administration will be forced to sharply raise borrowing, that is, the growth rate of the national debt will increase with the outstripping growth of expenses for its servicing. Needless to say, this prospect will not attract investors, but instead frighten them away.

All these factors cast doubt on the growth rates of demand for the dollar. The upcoming week will be quite saturated with macroeconomic statements, primarily on the data of consumer and production prices in October. The release of data that is worse than the September indices can cause a wave of selling for the dollar and will cast doubt on the general trend reversal in favor of the US currency.

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The situation in the eurozone continues to improve

Eurozone

Last week, the ECB and the European Commission presented two versions of the development of the economic situation in the eurozone. The European Commission increased the forecast for 2017 from 1.7% to 2.2%, noting that the improvement in the dynamics in the euro area is associated with a significant improvement in economic sentiment, moderate financial conditions and sustainable consumption.

The ECB came to a similar conclusion that private consumption continues to be the key factor of the continuing economic growth, which shows growth against the background of a fall in fuel prices and improvements in the labor market. PMI holds at the level of seven-year highs, and the Economic Sentiment Index has already significantly exceeded the pre-crisis level.

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While a number of key indicators for eurozone's economy does not look worse, it is doing better than the US economy. The proxy for surplus trade balance contributes to the capital outflow from the eurozone, but the direction of its movement is somewhat different from expectations - investors invest significantly more in Asia than in the US. The growth of the dollar in recent months contributed to the expectations of growth in the spread between the yield of US securities and eurozone countries, but this driver is weakening, as the US economic growth and the inflation situation lag behind the Fed's plans for normalizing monetary policy.

On Tuesday, an estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter in Germany and the eurozone as a whole will be published. Analysts suggest that for both indicators the result will be no worse than in the second quarter, and the euro can receive significant support.

The EURUSD pair will try to test the boundaries of the channel, which is approximately at the level of 1.1750 In case it succeeds, an attempt by the bulls to regain the momentum is possible. At the same time, long-term expectations are changing in favor of the dollar, and the likely growth will most likely be used for selling in the second half of the week with a prospect of withdrawing to the recent lows of 1.1550.

United Kingdom

The pound won against the dollar during trading on Friday after the publication of data on industrial production and trade balance in September, which significantly exceeded the forecasts. The production grew by 0.7% against the growth of 0.3% a month earlier, the growth in processing accounted for the same 0.7% against 0.4%, year-on-year growth of 2.5% and 2.7% respectively.

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The trade balance significantly reduced the deficit in September to 11.25 billion pounds against 12.8 billion pounds a month earlier. Analysts did not expect the deficit to decline, on the contrary they expected it to rise.

The published data confirm the accuracy of the course chosen by the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy, but let's not forget that industry is only 14% of the country's economy, and therefore the effect of published data will be short-lived.

On Tuesday, data on prices will be published in October, further growth of inflation is expected. If the data released is not worse than projected, it will support the pound, as well as it will increase the chances for another rate hike.

At the same time, the key issue for investors, namely the UK's exit from the EU, is still unresolved. Brexit will be triggered on March 2019 and so 17 months remain, and negotiations are at the same stage as at the very beginning. There is no progress, and further inaction of politicians will lead to a deterioration in the investment climate and will put pressure on the pound.

Until Tuesday, the pound will most likely trade neutral, to break through the 1.30/ 1.33 trading range, conditions have not yet been formed.

Oil

Brent finished the week above $63/bbl. A factor capable of causing correction in the oil market has not yet been found.

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