BITCOIN Analysis for September 11, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite indecisive and volatile recently while residing inside the corrective range of $6,000 to $6,500 area with a daily close. The price has been quite impulsive inside the bearish bias earlier which led the price to reside inside the support area from where a definite impulsive breakout is needed for a further direction and momentum in the coming days. Currently the price is indecisive amid bearish pressure whereas the reduction of impulsive momentum inside the range indicates emerging weakness of bears in the process. A daily close above $6,500 is a must for further bullish momentum to take place in this market whereas the bearish pressure is expected to continue as it remains below $6,500 with a daily close.

SUPPORT: 6000, 5500

RESISTANCE: 6500, 7500, 8000




The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

GBP / USD. 10th of September. Results of the day. Macroeconomic statistics in Britain helped the pound slightly

4-hour timeframe


Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 79p - 65p - 196p - 66p - 120p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 105p (98p).

The British pound sterling on Monday, September 10, has grown quite strongly against the US currency. Although it will be more correct to say that the US dollar has fallen in price. The reasons for this were a minimum of two. Firstly, it is a scandal in the White House, which is connected with the article published in the Times, devoted to an interview with an anonymous official, who reported a certain plot against Trump. This conspiracy is expressed in restraining the inconsistent president in his actions on the world stage. Secondly, the GDP of the UK in July quite unexpectedly showed an increase of 0.3% instead of 0.2% of the forecasted. However, we believe that this news had no special effect on the growth of the pound sterling. Moreover, for example, the volume of industrial production in the same July fell through, amounting to only 0.1% with a forecast of + 0.2%. Thus, all the attention of traders will be riveted again to Donald Trump, who through the scandal seems to have decided to lower the rate of the national currency. Recall that Trump is an ardent opponent of the "expensive" dollar, and not without reason. The more expensive the dollar, the more expensive is the service of the US dollar, which is already expressed simply as an astronomical figure. It's safe to say that all this behind-the-scenes games of the US government, of course, is impossible. However, the probability of such an option is high. One has only to recall all the scandals connected with Trump at the beginning of his reign by the country. Then the US dollar fell quite a bit on the joy of the White House. Thus, the topic with the scandal will be a counterweight to the new US trade policy, due to which recently the dollar has significantly strengthened against all its competitors.

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD resumed its upward movement and fulfilled the level of 1.3034. The price rebound from this level can provoke a correction loop with the aim of the Kijun-sen line. If this happens, then the correction can be bargained off in small lots. Given the serious news background, which is expected in the near future, increased caution in trade will not be superfluous.

Sell-positions are recommended to be opened in case of overcoming the Kijun-sen line. In this case, a downtrend may resume with the first target at 1.2791. Also in the coming days are very likely, the so-called "swings".

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

EUR / USD. 10th of September. Results of the day. In the White House, the scandal, the dollar is falling

4-hour timeframe


Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 39p - 92p - 90p - 53p - 98p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 74p (76p).

The currency pair EUR / USD on Monday, September 10, began an upward correction. In the White House scandal erupts because of the article published in Times, dedicated to the statements of an anonymous high-ranking official from the American state apparatus. According to him, there is a group of officials in Parliament that corrects Trump's actions in the international arena, preventing him from completely managing foreign economic policy. Also the author of the article reports that Trump's actions are detrimental to the economy and the country as a whole. It is reported that many officials consider Trump's behavior to be extravagant and make great efforts to make many of his wrong decisions remain in the White House and not become the property of the masses. The US leader himself had already reacted to this article, saying that the Times should immediately give out the name of the official who gave the interview. Moreover, the odious president has already begun to hunt in the White House for officials who hypothetically could give such an interview. It all looks like a scandal and a conspiracy against Trump. However, we have repeatedly said that in order to reduce the dollar, Trump can use just such methods as scandals around his person. As soon as this information appeared in the press, immediately followed the sale of the American currency. The bigger and stronger the scandal, the more the dollar will fall, which traders just prepared to buy in connection with the possible introduction of new trade duties on Chinese imports. If you recall the first months of Trump's presidency and the scandals of those days connected with the former head of the FBI and possible connections of Trump with the Russian Federation, thanks to which the dollar then fell sharply, it is reasonable to assume that the current scandal is aimed at devaluating the rate of the national currency. In the coming days, the situation should be monitored.

Trading recommendations:

For the pair EUR / USD "golden cross" correction began. It can be practiced in small lots with the targets of 1,1631 and 1,1673. However, increased caution when opening any transactions in the next few days is extremely necessary, since another scandal involving Trump is unpredictable.

Orders for sale will again be relevant after fixing the price below the critical line with a target level of support of 1.1526. In this case, the bears again take the initiative in their hands and continue to form a downward trend.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/PY for September 11, 2018

EUR/JPY has been quite volatile at the edge of the resistance area of 129.00-50 from where certain bearish pressure can be observed currently. Amid recent mixed economic data from Japan, certain gain on the EUR side has been observed that is expected to be short-lived as JPY is expected to lead the way again in the coming days.

Ahead of the ECB decision on the benchmark refinancing rate which is expected to be unchanged at 0.00% and ECB Press Conference later this week, EUR has been struggling to gain momentum as it was expected to be. Today French Final Private Payrolls report was published with a decrease to 0.1% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.2%, German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased to -10.6 from the previous figure of -13.7 which was expected to be at -13.5 and Employment Change report was published unchanged at 0.4%. Moreover, ZEW Economic Sentiment was published with an increase to -7.2 from the previous figure of -11.1 which was expected to be at -10.9.

On the other hand, JPY has been quite positive with the recent economic reports which is expected to impact the future gains in the pair against EUR. Today Japan's M2 Money Stock report was published unchanged at 2.9% which was expected to increase to 3.0%, Tertiary Industry Activity report was published as expected with an increase to 0.1% from the previous negative value of -0.6%, and Prelim Machine Tool Orders report was published with a decrease to 5.3% from the previous value of 13.1%.

At present, both currencies in the pair have been affected by mixed economic reports today which is expected to lead to further indecision and correction in the process. Having comparison of the both currencies via fundamentals, JPY is still quite stronger against EUR whereas ECB Press Conference and Main Refinancing Rate is expected to have a great impact on further momentum in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing below the resistance area of 129.00-50 area with a strong bullish rejection. Though the price has been volatile and corrective, a daily close below 129.00 is expected to provide the required confirmation for further bearish pressure in the pair with a target towards 125.50 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 129.50 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 125.50

RESISTANCE: 129.00-50




The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Bitcoin analysis for September 11, 2018


Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found a potential end of the upward correction (running flat abc) in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a potential end of the smaller abc upward correction, which is another sign of weakness. Watch for a breakout of the support trendline to confirm further downward continuation. The downward target is set at the price of $5.847.

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

GBP / USD pair for September 11. Trading system "Regression channels". The pound goes up again on positive expectations

4-hour timeframe


Technical data:

Senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: the direction is up.

The moving average (20; flattened) is up.

CCI: 173.3570

On September 10, the GBP / USD currency pair rose against the US currency. There were several reasons for this. The first is a scandal in the White House, of which we have already written. The second is Michel Barnier's speech in Bled, during which he stated that Brexit agreement can be reached within 6-8 weeks. This news was perceived by traders as a positive signal. From our point of view, this is another rumor and hope for a favorable outcome of the whole epic with the UK's withdrawal from the EU. In fact, Barnier just expressed the hope that everything will be decided before November. This does not mean that the parties have already agreed or are close to an agreement. Thus, nothing positive for Britain and the pound did not happen. But the topic with another scandal around Donald Trump provided his development lead to a long decline in the US currency and growth of competitors accordingly. This is what Trump wants - to divert public attention from the topic of trade policy and focus on some scandal. With this, he can kill two birds with one stone.

On the one hand, to continue the introduction of necessary trade duties, reducing the likelihood of strengthening the US dollar against this background. On the other hand, it is to raise doubts about the market about the inviolability and stability of the United States in political terms, which will cause a decline in demand for the dollar. Today, we recommend paying attention to the publication of average wages and applications for unemployment benefits in the UK.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,3000

S2 - 1.2939

S3 - 1.2878

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.3062

R2 = 1.3123

R3 = 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD pair resumed the upward movement and fulfilled the level of 1.3062. Thus, since there are no signals to the beginning of the correction, long positions can be held for the purpose of 1.3123. Turning downward the Heiken Ashi will indicate the turn of the corrective movement.

It is recommended to consider selling orders after fixing the price below the moving average, which is unlikely to happen today. Nevertheless, when fastening below the removals, shorts with a target of 1.2878 will become actual.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The junior channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for September 11, 2018

GBP/USD has been quite bullish and volatile recently which lead the price to reside and reject from the edge of 1.3050 area. USD has been the dominant currency in the pair earlier but despite the positive employment reports published recently, USD could not sustain the bearish pressure it had over GBP in the process.

Yesterday, a positive GDP report did help GBP to gain the required momentum after having a certain volatile affair with USD after the Employment Change reports published on Friday. UK GDP rose to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1% which was expected to be at 0.2%. Moreover, Goods Trade Balance, Construction Output and Index of Services reports were also better than a forecasted value which leads GBP to gain impulsively over USD in the process. Today Average Earning Index report was also published with an increase to 2.6% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.4% but Claimant Count Change had negative impact performing worse than expected at 8.7k which was expected to decrease to 6.9k from the previous figure of 10.2k and Unemployment Rate was unchanged as expected at 4.0%.

On the USD side, there have been no impactful economic reports published after the Friday's NFP reports for which no certain momentum on the USD side was observed so far. Today, the USD Final Wholesale Inventories report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.7% and JOLTS Job Opening is expected to increase to 6.68M from the previous figure of 6.66M. Ahead of the PPI, CPI and Retail Sales reports to publish this week, certain volatility and indecision can be expected on the USD side as the forecasts are quite mixed.

As of the current scenario, GBP had a setback today after providing series of positive high impact economic reports whereas USD having certain high impact economic reports yet to be published, certain volatility can be observed in this pair. If USD performs better than expected with the economic reports this week, the bearish trend is expected to continue further for the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 1.3050 area with a daily close while also having a bearish divergence in place signaling upcoming bearish momentum in the pair. A daily close below 1.3050 with certain bearish pressure today is expected to indicate further bearish momentum in the pair which can lead the price towards 1.2850 and later towards 1.2650 area in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 1.2850, 1.2650

RESISTANCE: 1.3050, 1.3200




The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Bitcoin analysis for September 11, 2018


Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3018. Anyway, I found the fake breakout of the 2-week high at the price of 1.3042 (strong resistance), which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator and breakout of the support trendline, which is another sign of weakness. Watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.2920.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

GBP/USD analysis for September 11, 2018


Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3018. Anyway, I found a fake breakout of the 2-week high at the price of 1.3042 (strong resistance), which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator and breakout of the support trendline, which is another sign of weakness. Watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.2920.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 11, 2018


The recent bearish movement of the GBP/USD has shown signs of weakness since September 5 when an ascending bottom was established around 1.2800

The GBP/USD pair is currently testing the depicted downtrend line which comes to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090.

This price zone (1.3025-1.3090) corresponds to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels where evident bearish rejection should be anticipated.

As long as sings of bearish rejection are demonstrated below 1.3020 (50% Fibo level), the short-term outlook remains bearish towards 1.2840 and 1.2780.

On the other hand, successful bullish breakout above 1.3090 will probably hinder the current bearish movement allowing further bullish advancement to occur towards 1.3200, 1.3250 and 1.3315.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 11, 2018


The EUR/USD pair is currently trapped between the depicted technical levels (1.1750 - 1.1500). Breakout movement should be anticipated.

The price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 stands as a prominent demand zone to be watched for bullish rejection and possible bullish pullbacks.

Bearish breakdown of 1.1520 is needed to allow further bearish decline towards 1.1420. Next bearish target would be located around 1.1275.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 11, 2018


In April, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (lower limit of the consolidation range) allowed quick bearish decline towards 0.6700-0.6800 where narrow ranged consolidation range was established.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 temporarily. However, lack of bullish momentum made the bulls fail to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6700.

On August 9, bearish breakout below the depicted consolidation range (0.6840-0.6700) was executed. This allowed the recent bearish decline to occur towards 0.6600-0.6570.

The NZD/USD pair outlook turned to be bearish. Bearish targets are projected towards the price levels of 0.6520 and 0.6480.

Recently, signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the previous weekly/monthly low around 0.6550. This allowed the recent bullish pullback towards 0.6700 to be demonstrated.

Evident bearish rejection was demonstrated around 0.6700 (broken demand-zone and backside of the broken-trend) where the current bearish decline was initiated.

Currently, the price level of 0.6550 stands as a prominent demand-level which needs to be broken-down so that further bearish decline can occur towards 0.6420.

Trade Recommendations:

Risky traders can wait for bearish persistence below 0.6550 (key-level). This offers a high-risk SELL position.

Initial T/P should be placed around 0.6420 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) while S/L should be placed above 0.6600.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 11, 2018


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 11, 2018



The market is still trading above the weekly pivot point (0.9689). It continued to move downwards from the level of 0.9689 to the bottom around 0.9651. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9728 followed by 0.9776, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9651. The USD/CHF pair broke support which turned to strong resistance at 0.9776. Right now, the pair is trading below this level. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the support (0.9698) which is expected to act as major support today. This would suggest a bearish market because the moving average (100) is still in a negative area and does not show any signs of a trend reversal at the moment. Amid the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9689 and 0.9600, so we expect a range of 89 pips in coming hours. Therefore, the major resistance can be found at 0.9728 providing a clear signal to sell with a target seen at 0.9651. If the trend breaks the minor support at 0.9651, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level of 0.9600 in order to test the daily support 2. Overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay below the spot of 0.9728 today.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Technical analysis of Gold for September 11, 2018

The Gold price remains inside the bearish channel. Gold is in a consolidation stage relieving some oversold conditions. It is most probable that the entire decline from $1,365 is not yet finished and we should expect one more leg lower towards $1,100.


Blue lines - bearish channel

So far the Gold price action has shown no sign of a bigger trend reversal. The Gold price is trading around $1,200 level unable to break above and out of the bearish channel. The trend remains bearish in the Daily chart and a break below $1,180 will signal that the next leg lower has started. Short-term resistance is at $1,205-10 and if broken we could see a bigger bounce in Gold prices towards $1,220-30 area.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 11, 2018

EUR/USD has moved back above 1.16-1.1620 towards major short-term resistance at 1.1660 but sellers appeared once again and are putting pressure on the pair. Another rejection at 1.1660 is not a bullish sign. On the other hand, as long as bulls respect and defend the 1.1540 neckline support they are safe. A break below the neckline will activate the Head and Shoulders pattern.


Orange rectangle - resistance area

Blue horizontal line - neckline support

EUR/USD has reached 1.1644 only to get rejected. So far the 4 hour candle is bearish with a long upper tail. If bulls manage to break above the recent high it will be a bullish sign that will increase the chances of challenging and breaking above the 1.1660 resistance. Support is at 1.1590. A 4-hour close below this area will be a sign of weakness, implying a move towards the neckline support at 1.1540 is coming.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

The dollar will continue to rise

The US dollar is finished the week with an unconditional favorite. While the global PMI is declining due to the financial crisis in the number of developing countries and is at the lowest level since November 2016, ISM has got established itself above 60p, the production ISM has been at its maximum since 2004.


The employment report for August showed a sharp increase in average wages to 2.9% 2.7% a month earlier. Markets reacted poorly to the data output, considering that the Congressional elections and trade wars are now in the foreground, but from the point of view of the FRS's long-term plans, a strong increase in wages removes a number of concerns. It is no coincidence that the probability of a fourth increase this year reached 75% in the CME futures market, after which 50% at the beginning of the week can be regarded as a sharp change of mood.

This reaction is primarily due to the fact that the Fed is guided by the so-called "Phillips formula", according to which high growth rates of wages inevitably lead to an increase in consumer demand, and hence, to an increase in inflation. Accordingly, the Fed receives confirmation that the US economy is in a phase of growth, which gives it the right not to slow the pace of normalization of monetary policy.

Thus, all the concerns of the market were lifted after the speech of Powell in Jackson Hole. The dollar is again a favorite, as confirmed by the Friday report of the CFTC, which confirmed a strong preponderance of the cumulative bullish speculative position on the dollar in the futures market. Bonds TIPS has had not yet managed to react to the growth of inflationary expectations.


On Friday, Trump again confirmed his tough position regarding the intention to rewrite the rules of US foreign trade. According to him, the duties on the import of Chinese products will be raised soon, moreover, the next step is also being developed with a total volume of $ 267 billion. In addition, Trump announced the imminent start of negotiations with Japan on the development of a new bilateral agreement, as well as the intention to achieve a result with Canada within NAFTA, although Canada has so far refused to sign the document without concessions on the dispute resolution mechanism.

The dollar has every chance to spend a week in the green zone.

EUR/USD pair

On September 13, the ECB meeting on monetary policy will take place. Markets are calm and surprises are not expected. The main focus will be on the rhetoric of Draghi, as well as, the possible change in macroeconomic forecasts.

The Eurozone GDP growth slowed by only 0.4% in both quarters this year, which is below 0.7% on average for the quarter in 2017. The ECB is still quite far from the first rate hike, but the asset repurchase program is unlikely to be extended and will end by the end of this year.

Today, trade negotiations between the EU and the US begin in Brussels, hence, the euro's nervous reaction to any public statements is possible, but more likely it is still a quiet expectation of Thursday. The euro will be traded with a decrease with the nearest support at 1.1509. On Tuesday, the decline may accelerate to 1.1430.

GBP/USD pair

The pound plays out a leak about the EU's willingness to make some concessions in Brexit negotiations. The head of the EU delegation Michel Barnier warned that the two main provisions of the UK trade plan are unacceptable, accordingly, the concession on the part of the EU can mean the readiness to work out an interim document without specifying details, on which, at the moment the discrepancy is most severe. This is the approach proposed by the ruling coalition of Germany, and if it is adopted, the chances of developing an agreement will increase.

On Thursday, there will be a meeting of the Bank of England, which will be a passing event, surprises are not expected. The pound's reaction is predicted to be calm. The week, as a whole, will be quite tense. A report on industrial production and trade balance in July will be published today, a little later NIESR will give an estimate of GDP growth rates. It could significantly change the position of the pound if the data on average wages will be significantly different from the forecasts.

Today, GBP/USD pair is under the threat of increased volatility. There is no direction and the price will fluctuate in a wide range of 1.2786-1.3050.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Trading plan for 11/09/2018

On the currency market, the JPY is losing to USD just above 111.40 level after the reports that the Japanese processor manufacturer Renesas intends to buy for USD 6.7 billion competitors from the US IDT (potential demand for USD / JPY).

Among other currencies, the strongest was GBP, which is all the time supported by positive information about Brexit. European Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said yesterday to journalists that the agreement with the UK is "realistic" within 6-8 weeks.

The NAB business mood index from Australia in September fell to 4 from 7 months earlier. The sentiment index increased to 15 from 12. Mixed data turned out to be neutral for the currency and AUD/USD remained stable at just above 0.71.

The Japanese Nikkei225 stands out on the stock market, growing by 1.2%, following USD/JPY. In emerging markets, investors are struggling to break the series of eight succession sessions and put aside fears of escalating trade wars. Chinese Shanghai Composite is at the level of Monday closing.

On the commodity market, gold drifts close to 11195 USD/oz and WTI is stable at USD 67.6/b.

On Tuesday, the 11th of September, the event calendar will be busy only during the London session, because there are ZEW Economic Sentiment data from Germany and Eurozone scheduled for releases in the morning, together with Claimant Count Change data from the UK. During the US session, there are NFIB Small Business Index data from the US to be released and Housing Starts data to be released from Canada.

EUR/USD analysis for 11/09/2018:

The data from Germany and the rest of the Eurozone in form of ZEW Economic sentiment will be released at 09:00 am GMT. A German Firm, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), queries financial experts throughout Europe every month in order to make a medium-term forecast about Germany 's economic situation. They ask experts to evaluate the current situation and to predict the future direction of the economy. For all components of the survey, responses are restricted to positive, negative, or unchanged. This simple structure allows the survey to be quick and efficient in terms of turnaround time, as well as easy to understand and interpret. Experts are asked for a qualitative assessment of the direction of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates and the stock market in the next six months. Thus the indicator provides a medium-term forecast for the German economy.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still trading inside of the black channel and currently, the bulls are trying to challenge the technical resistance at the level of 1.1627. In a case of a bullish breakout, the next target is seen at the level of 1.1655 and a better than expected ZEW data might be a fundamental trigger. Please notice, the momentum remains neutral to positive and now is pointing to the upside which supports the short-term bullish bias.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Bitcoin analysis for 11/09/2018

The European Commission will conclude this year's regulatory assessment regarding the management of cryptocurrency resources. Speaking at a press conference following the meeting of the Economic and Financial Council, Valdis Dombrovskis, Vice-President of the European Commission, said that member states support changes in the regulations governing the activity of the cryptocurrency industry in the economic region: "We also had a good exchange of views on the subject of crypto-assets. We are aware of the fact that crypto-assets will be permanent. Despite recent turmoil, this market is still growing" says Dombrovskis. In addition, he suggested that initial monetary offers (ICO) could become a viable form of alternative financing: "Already last year, ICO helped raise more than $6 billion in funding, and this year will be much larger" he added. In order to make the best use of this potential, Dombrovskis claims that the challenge now is to "categorize and classify" cryptographic assets and whether the EU should apply the existing rules of the financial market or create a set of special rules dedicated to cryptocurrencies" In this context, we are currently working with the European regulators on what we call regulatory mapping of cryptographic resources to answer these questions exactly. This will provide a solid basis for further work and make decisions on further steps in this area" he says.

In the past, Dombrovskis was positive about the ICO as an innovative method of raising funds. He pointed out that regulators would take a more individual approach to manage specific projects, although he admitted that the Commission had a lot of work to do.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market remains locked inside a horizontal zone between the levels of $6,365 - $6,083. Moreover, the black trend line still provides the dynamic resistance for the price around the level of $6,350 and the Pin Bar candlestick reveals the weakness of bulls so far. In order to regain the control over this market, bulls must break out above the technical resistance at the level of $6,514 and spike higher towards the level of $6,752 and above. Otherwise, the bears will push the prices lower towards the level of $6,083 and then $5,846.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 11, 2018


EUR/NZD keeps making headway towards the sub-target at 1.7820. Ideally, this resistance will only make a temporary top for the next swing higher towards the more important resistance at 1.8369.

Support is now seen at 1.7668 and if a break below here is seen, then a corrective decline closer to support at 1.7605 could be seen, but it should be short-lived as the steady uptrend continues higher towards 1.8369.

R3: 1.8016

R2: 1.7919

R1: 1.7820

Pivot: 1.7738

S1: 1.7701

S2: 1.7668

S3: 1.7605

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7330 and we will move our stop higher to 1.7660.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 11, 2018


The corrective decline in red wave (2) seems to have bottomed just above the 50% corrective target at 127.60. The following rally looks nice and strong and has already tested short-term important resistance at 129.11. A clear break above this resistance will confirm that red wave (2) is complete and red wave (3) is taking over for a rally towards at least 136.50 and possibly even move higher.

Short-term, we expect support to be seen in the 128.33 - 128.47 area for the expected break above 129.11. That said, as long as resistance at 129.11 has not been broken clearly, we must accept the possibility of a final dip to just below 127.85, but the odds for this outcome, seems quite low.

R3: 130.49

R2: 129.98

R1: 129.11

Pivot: 128.94

S1: 128.76

S2: 128.47

S3: 128.33

Trading recommendation:

We have bought EUR at 129.11 and we will place our stop at 127.75. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a possible correction back into the 128.33 - 128.47 area and use the same stop at 127.75.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

GBP/USD Testing Resistance, Prepare For Reversal

GBP/USD is testing its resistance at 1.3033 (100% & 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 50% & 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where a reversal to its support at 1.2924 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) is expected.

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) has reversed off near its resistance at 98% where a corresponding drop is expected.

GBP/USD is testing its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 1.3033. Stop loss at 1.3097. Take profit at 0.8891 1.2924.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

EUR/GBP Testing Support, Prepare For A Bounce

EUR/GBP is approaching its support at 0.8891 (100% & 61.8%% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where price is expected to bounce up to its resistance at 0.8950 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 4.4% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

EUR/GBP is testing its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 0.8891. Stop loss at 0.8851. Take profit at 0.8950.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Ethereum analysis for 10/09/2018

In April this year, the Central Bank of Russia launched a regulatory cell that controls all entities that develop or use innovative services whose implementation requires appropriate regulatory changes. In a document published in February this year, the Central Bank announced that it plans to transform the Russian cryptocurrency into financial services by developing new infrastructure, including a platform based on blockchain technology (DLT). The special representative of Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov, in the last interview pointed to the tightening of the Russian position for the cryptocurrency market.

Vladimir Putin's representative for digital and technological development (RIA) notes that Russia does not yet have a right covering cryptographic assets, virtual coins, and ICO. According to the report, the RIA does not support the legalization of cryptocurrencies in Russia at this time. He notes that there is a big risk that his country may once again fall victim to a financial pyramid such as MLM: "The Central Bank of Russia has adopted a fairly liberal position in the field of cryptocurrency regulation. But the level of risk is so high that the position may soon be much stricter" - noted Dmitry Peskov.

According to Mr. Peskov, the most sensible approach would be to create regulatory institutions that would conduct research and analysis of cryptocurrencies. Despite the increasingly harsh position of the Bank of Russia in relation to the crypto market, the regulator is still open to blockchain technology.

Let's now take a look at the Ethereum technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the downside breakout from the triangle formation, the market has made a low at the level of $181.47. The bulls tried to rally, but were too weak and did not even violated the nearest technical resistance at the level of $206.54, so the price has moved back again and now is trading close to the recent lows. Please notice, there are some signs of a possible bullish divergence forming on this time frame.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

What you need to know about trade tariffs in relation to China

On Monday, in my morning review, I said that the US is preparing new trade tariffs against China. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China did not delay its response, saying that it will take retaliatory measures if the United States will impose additional duties on Chinese imports

The official representative of the Ministry of Trade of China, Geng Shuang, said that China will take counter measures to resolutely protect its legitimate rights and interests.

As for tariffs, so far the breakdown is as follows:

- The US has already introduced tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 50 billion;

- The US is ready to introduce additional tariffs on Chinese goods worth 267 billion in the near future;

- The US is preparing another $200 billion package of tariffs;

TOTAL: The final cost of taxable goods from China will be more than $505 billion. By the way, according to the US Bureau of Statistics, the amount of $505 billion is equal to the amount of US exports from China in 2017.

China has so far limited itself to retaliatory tariffs in the amount of $50 billion.

The British pound managed to get support and increased against the US dollar. This happened against the background of a good report on the pace of economic growth in the UK in July of this year, which exceeded the forecasts of economists. However, weak data on industrial production counterbalanced the above report and forced investors to take a wait-and-see position on Brexit regarding the future plans of the Bank of England, which will be announced later this week.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in July 2018, the growth of the UK economy accelerated, but the growth rate remains quite restrained. Warm weather led to an increase in consumer spending, as well as a positive impact on the construction sector.

Thus, in July this year, compared with June, UK GDP grew by 0.3%. Let me remind you that in June the growth was 0.1%. Good data on UK GDP calmed investors who fear uneven progress in negotiations on the UK's withdrawal from the EU.


In the period from May to June, compared with the previous three months, the UK economy showed an increase of 0.6%. Year-on-year growth was 2.4%. As I noted above, the growth of retail sales and services sector offset weak data on the decline in the manufacturing industry.

The report is very useful, as this Thursday, September 13, the Bank of England will publish its decision on interest rates.

Data on changes in the volume of industrial production in the UK were worse than experts ' forecasts, which limited the growth of the pound in the short term.

According to the Statistics Agency, industrial production in the UK in July this year increased by only 0.1% compared to June, while compared to the same period in 2017, production increased by 0.9%. Economists had expected growth of 0.2% and 1.1%, respectively.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, the strong fall of the pound at the end of last week threatens a further uptrend that was formed on rumors related to Brexit. Buyers of the British pound require an operational return to the resistance of 1.2950, above which the demolition of a number of stop orders will lead to the resumption of the upward trend and the renewal of the highs of 1.3025 and 1.3080. In the event of a further downward correction, the breakthrough of support at 1.2900 will form a strong momentum on the pound down, which will lead to a test of the lows at 1.2830 and 1.2790.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

EUR/USD: The euro follows the pound

The unexpected price jump of the euro/dollar pair in the afternoon is primarily due to the news on Brexit. Brexit's theme triggers high volatility for the third consecutive week. The main negotiator from the EU Michel Barnier again and again gives optimism to traders, increasing the probability of concluding a final deal between London and Brussels.

And although the reaction of the European currency to the Brexit process, as a rule, is secondary (the main beneficiary is the pound), on Monday the EUR/USD pair quite sharply jerked up after the sterling. In general, there has been some correlation recently, although not so long ago the euro was cool about the successes or failures of the negotiations. Apparently, the proximity of the "deadline" begins to put pressure not only on British investors, but also on the European business community. Various apocalyptic scenarios of the chaotic withdrawal of Britain from the EU used to concern mainly the country of the the UK, and now in the European press one can increasingly meet the expert assessment of the possible consequences for the countries of the Alliance. Therefore, certain steps towards concluding a deal are perceived by traders of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD with the same optimism.

As I said above, negotiators have recently "indulged" market participants with positive information. Today's price momentum is the fourth in less than three weeks. Although over the past two years, London and Brussels rarely and slowly came to any consensus and compromise-only at the end of 2017, the parties completed the first stage of negotiations. The current pace of dialogue shows that the negotiating groups are determined to achieve results and are ready to make concessions. So, this morning there was information that Michel Barnier will soon receive final instructions that will increase the chance of concluding an agreement with Britain, as they contain a number of concessions on key issues. Here it is worth recalling that last week there were rumors on the market that Germany refused a number of requirements in the negotiations, thereby meeting the British. Officially, the Germans denied this information, but rather vague: the representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Germany "fully trusts Michel Barnier" in this matter.


This position is consistent with the information that emerged today that Brussels will give Barnier a mandate to complete the negotiation process. According to preliminary data, at the end of September an informal EU summit will be held in Austria, where representatives of the Alliance countries should agree on a preliminary agreement. If the summit is successful, the deal will be submitted to the official EU summit (in October) and then – at a special summit, which will be devoted exclusively to the "divorce" process of Britain and the EU. Tentatively, it is planned to be held in November, and it can put an end to the long-term negotiation process.

On the one hand, the algorithm of actions fits into the time frame, but on the other hand, any hitch in the negotiations or lack of compromise on the Irish border can completely negate the optimistic plans of the negotiators. That is why today's statement by Barnier caused such a price surge for the pound and the euro. He said that, in his opinion, it is quite possible to conclude general agreements on Brexit in the next month and a half or two. The key unresolved issue is the fate of the Irish border, but now the parties are trying to "simplify it as much as possible."

He also noted that the negotiators have reached a lot of compromises on various controversial issues, and Theresa May's "Chequers" plan is not so bad, as the parties learned "a lot of useful" from there. A "cherry on top of the cake" of such a positive picture was Barnier's statement that Brussels is ready to make the British a "quite important and exclusive" offer, without going into details. About a certain "special offer" Barnier said before, however, the market reaction to these words was short-term.

Now we can assess the set of fundamental factors that add up to one picture. By and large, the negotiators have one of the most serious issues, which is a stumbling block – the Irish border. Today there were optimistic notes regarding its resolution. In my opinion, if the parties find a consensus on this issue, the probability of concluding a final deal will increase to 90-95% (now the parties themselves estimate the chances of 80%). Therefore, the topic of the Irish border should be carefully monitored.

In addition, if you add up all the various rumors and comments, you can come to the conclusion that the parties are set to conclude a framework agreement at the end of September, for approval of the top officials of the EU countries in October, and in November to hold a "solemn part" of the conclusion of the negotiation process.


As I said above, the European currency has recently shown a stronger correlation with the Brexit process. Further optimism on this issue will continue to support the euro. From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair needs to consolidate above 1.1620 (Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart). In this case, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator will form a "Golden cross" signal, which indicates the priority of purchases. If this scenario is implemented, the next price targets will be the boundaries of the Kumo cloud on D1-1.1645 and 1.1680, respectively. But here it is worth noting that last week this attempt of EUR/USD bulls failed.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Weekly review of the foreign exchange market from September 10, 2018

Last week, the dollar made serious attempts to strengthen. As a result, it managed to continue to strengthen with respect to the ruble, though not at such a pace. Also, the dollar was able to strengthen slightly against the single European currency, but it did not work with the pound. Although during the week, the pound was quite seriously cheaper but finished the week in the same place where it started. Almost the entire week, American statistics were completely multidirectional. Thus, the total sales of vehicles decreased from 16.8 million to 16.7 million. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector fell from 55.3 to 54.7, while in the service sector, from 56.0 to 54.8. Naturally, this led to a decrease in the composite index of business activity from 55.7 to 54.7. Moreover, production orders decreased by 0.8%. So, there was no reason to be happy, but much more important data came out. This is the report of the US Department of Labor. Initially, the content of the report was somewhat disappointing, as the unemployment rate remained the same, and more importantly, the proportion of the workforce in the total population decreased from 62.9% to 62.7%. But with a closer look at the text of the report, investors were cheered up. The fact is that out of agriculture, 201 thousand new jobs were created, and the growth rate of the average hourly wage increased from 2.7% to 2.9%. It turns out that employment is growing in the face of rising incomes. This is an extremely positive signal, and, in theory, the dollar should be strengthened even more.

The fact that the dollar should have strengthened much more actively becomes doubly clear after a cursory glance at European statistics, as European GDP growth rates in the second quarter slowed from 2.5% to 2.1%. Earlier, it was assumed that economic growth rates slowed from 2.5% to 2.2%. Also, the growth rate of retail sales slowed from 1.5% to 1.1%. But in Europe, there was also positive news that could not change the general mood, but only a few smoothed the negative. The fact is that unlike the US, the European index of business activity in the services sector grew from 54.2 to 54.4, which allowed the composite index of business activity to grow from 54.3 to 54.5. Also, the growth rates of producer prices accelerated from 3.6% to 4.0%. But in any case, the slowdown in economic growth, paired with a slowdown in retail sales, should have given a much greater decline in the single European currency. And much more interesting with the pound, as only the index of business activity in the service sector, showed an increase from 53.5 to 54.3. While the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector fell from 53.8 to 52.8, and in the construction sector from 55.8 to 52.9. So, the question arises as to what constrained the growth of the dollar.

The questions are caused by the growth of the dollar against the ruble, as inflation in Russia accelerated from 2.5% to 3.1%, and Elvira Nabiullina said that the next meeting of the Bank of Russia's board will consider not the reduction of the key rate, but its increase. And all this should lead, if not to the growth of the ruble, then at least to its stability.

So the answers again have to be found in the bulletins of political news.

If we talk about the single European currency and the pound, then we need to remember about Brexit and all that is associated with it. More recently, representatives of the European Union have stated that they are ready to offer the UK such conditions of cooperation that no one has. In response, Theresa May said that the United Kingdom will not make any concessions, hinting that she knows about the details of these conditions, and they are not so good. But last week, there were reports that Britain and Germany agreed to give up a number of mutual demands in order to reach a common agreement at the talks. This development of events strongly inspired market participants. Simultaneously, along with this, a political scandal is gaining momentum in the United States caused by the publication of a book in which, referring to unnamed sources, the White House's plot against Donald Trump is described. A little later, in a number of mass media, correspondence appeared allegedly between the employees of the administration of Donald Trump, where the question of his removal from power is being discussed. Naturally, the US President was furious, and all prominent representatives of the White House began to give official comments one by one, that they did not take part in any conspiracies and did not know anything about it. Many have assured that they are ready to undergo an immediate check on the lie detector. And, finally, this does not add confidence in the future, so that even though the dollar had good reasons for growth, purely political factors hindered it.

As for the ruble, its weakening is connected exclusively with political factors, since purely economic factors have an extremely weak influence on it. And it's about the case of the Violins. The new information provided by Great Britain, although it causes a lot of questions and criticisms, still implies a certain intelligible answer that Russia does not give. And the situation in Syria is heating up. But on all these points Russia is limited to some kind of unintelligible excuses, which raises many questions about its ability to withstand pressure. So, it is not surprising that investors are trying to close their ruble positions in order to wait for at least some clarity.

If you look at what data should be released this week in the US, it is unclear how to grow the dollar. Of course, the increase in consumer lending from $ 10.2 billion to $ 13.0 billion is quite good, but not enough. Moreover, if commodity stocks in wholesale warehouses should increase by another 0.7%, producer price growth rates will slow from 3.3% to 3.2%, and inflation from 2.9% to 2.7%. And the growth rates of industrial production and retail sales may slow down. So, it's time to worry that the Fed can reconsider its plans on the rate of increase in the refinancing rate. Moreover, the scandal surrounding a certain conspiracy against Donald Trump will only gain momentum. So, the dollar can grow only if something extraordinary happens in the Old World.

True, the continental is not particularly pleased with a large amount of statistical data. The slowdown in industrial production is expected to slow from 2.5% to 2.4%. And that is all. However, all attention will be focused on the results of the meeting of the ECB Monetary Policy Board. Naturally, no changes are expected, but the ECB is waiting for further confirmation that after December, the program of quantitative easing will not be prolonged. And at the moment, such fears are justified, as inflation slows down, and with it consumer activity. However, it is unlikely that, against the background of preliminary data on inflation, the ECB will make hasty decisions. So, the ECB will once again announce plans to curtail the quantitative easing program, as well as the subsequent increase in the refinancing rate. So, by the end of the week, the single European currency should strengthen to 1.1675.


Much more interesting will be in the UK, where data on industrial production has already emerged, whose growth rates have slowed from 1.1% to 0.9%. But this is the only negative that is expected by the pound. Data on the labor market can show the stability of the unemployment rate combined with the acceleration of the growth rate of the average wage both with and without bonuses. Well, the main event will be a meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Board. From the department of Mark Carney will wait for at least hints about further plans of the regulator. The market is now in the state of waiting for further growth in the refinancing rate in the US, as well as serious tightening of monetary policy in Europe. Against this background, the Bank of England should designate its medium-term position, and it should be aimed specifically at further raising the refinancing rate. If the results of the meeting of the Bank of England are different, then the pound will be extremely difficult. But while everything indicates that the English regulator will please market participants, and this will allow the pound to strengthen to 1.3050.


But the ruble has a completely different story. And it does not matter whether the Bank of Russia will raise the key rate or not. Even if Elvira Nabiullina goes to such an impractical step, this will not significantly affect the ruble. While everyone thinks only about new sanctions, since no one doubts that they will be entered. Considering that all previous sanctions did not have the same effect as the US expected, so that everyone is waiting for new, really harsh sanctions. It is this fear, and most importantly the lack of understanding what exactly will be, and scares. Fear is the most important enemy, as it is irrational, and nothing will prevent market participants from further getting rid of their ruble assets. So, it is worth waiting for the growth of the dollar to 71.00 rubles. True, the dollar is so heavily overbought that at least some kind of relaxation or calm will lead to a weakening of the dollar to 69.00 rubles. But while it is most likely that the ruble will continue to weaken.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -