NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for July 3, 2018

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The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.

Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears That's why, bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for sellers to have a valid SELL entry. It's already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to 0.6800 to secure some profits.

Recently, the price zone of 0.6820-0.6780 was being challenged by the NZD/USD bears. This price zone was considered as a target level for current sellers.

The current bearish breakdown of the price zone 0.6820-0.6780 allowed bearish decline towards 0.6700-0.6680 where early signs of bullish recovery are being manifested.

Any bullish pullback towards the supply zone (0.6820-0.6780) should be watched for bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.6850.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 3, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established. However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, further bearish momentum was expressed in the market.

Recently, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered significant bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry. Bearish target around 1.1520 has already been reached.

The price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent bullish demand where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

Initial Bullish target levels were located around 1.1750. However, the significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.1700 which led to the current bearish decline again towards the price level of 1.1600.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped inside a consolidation range between the depicted key-levels 1.1520 and 1.1700 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

A bearish breakdown below 1.1520-1.1420 might occur if enough bearish pressure is applied. This would potentially enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1270 (recent consolidation range and demand level).

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BITCOIN Analysis for July 3, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently which surprising led the price to reside above $6,500 area with a daily close. After a decline below $6,500 with a daily close, the bearish momentum has been quite strong which sparked off anxiety among market participants. However, yesterday's sudden bullish momentum confused the sentiment. This month of July is expected to be the bullish momentum month for Bitcoin and other crypto currencies which may encoureage further gains in the coming days. As more big names like Goldman Sachs is showing interest in Bitcoin trading, bulls are likely to enter the market in the short run. As for the current scenario, the price is holding above $6,500. Moreover, the price is expected to jump towards the Kumo Cloud at $7,000-7,500 area before showing any bearish intervention in the process.

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EUR / USD m30. Variants of the development of the movement from July 2, 2018 - Analysis of APLs & ZUP

SubMinuette (m30)

Euro vs US Dollar

Previous view of 27/06/2018 17:20 UTC + 3.

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The development of the EURUSD price movement takes place in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1575 <-> 1.1595 <-> 1.1617) of the Micro operational scale forks. Therefore, the further trend of movement development (in the period 02 - 04 July 2018) of the trading instrument price will be defined by the direction of the border levels' breakdown of this channel.

Marking of the working out of the above levels of fork lines. The operational scale of Micro is shown in the graph.

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The prospect of downward movement (sell)

Breakdown of the support level at 1.1575 (the lower bound of the channel on the a Median Line Micro) will make it possible to continue the development of the EUR/USD traffic in the equilibrium zone ( 1.1575 <-> 1.1550 <-> 1.1520). There is a micro operational scale fork with the prospect of achieving the ultimate Shiff Line Micro ( support level 1.1505 ).

View detailslook at the graph.

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Prospect of development of the upward movement (buy)

Breakdown of the resistance level at 1.1617 (the upper border of the channel on the 1/2 Median Line SubMinuette). The movement of the EUR / USD pair will continue in Canada on 1/2 Median Line SubMinuette ( 1.1612 <-> 1.1635 <-> 1.1660 ), and in case of breakdown of the upper border ( 1.1660 ) of this upward movement channel, the price of the instrument can continue to the targets.

The details are shown in the graph.

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The review is made disregarding the news background and it is not a guide to action (issuing orders "sell" or "buy").

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Materials for the study of the analysis of ZUP & APL's.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for July 3, 2018

EUR/JPY has been quite corrective and volatile at the edge of 129.50 area recently. The price is currently expected to fall lower with a target towards 125.00 area in the coming days. Though JPY was getting weaker due to sluggish inflation this year, EUR is also domed to struggle for gains as well.

EUR has been quite positive amid recent economic reports, including unchanged Unemployment Rate at 8.4% and a slight decrease in Manufacturing PMI. Today, French Government Budget Balance report was published with an increase of deficit to -55.1B from the previous deficit of -54.3B, Spanish Unemployment Change failed to meet the expectation of -101.0k as it showed -90.0k, increasing slightly from -83.7k, PPI report was published with an increase to 0.8% from the previous value of 0.0% which was expected to be at 0.4%, and Retail Sales showed a slight increase to 0.0% from the previous value of -0.1% which was expected to be at 0.1%.

On the other hand, Japan's Average Cash Earning report which is due on Friday which is expected to increase to 0.9% from the previous value of 0.6%. Today, JPY Monetary Base report was published with a decrease to 7.4% from the previous value of 8.1% which was expected to increase to 8.3%.

As for the current scenario, despite the worse economic report from Japan today it managed to gain certain momentum over EUR whereas EUR has been mixed with the reports published today. As the trade war tensions are going on, EUR is expected to lose momentum over JPY in the process. The market is likely to be volatile and corrective in the coming days whereas JPY is expected to have an upper hand.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite indecisive with the recent daily candle below 129.50 area. The price is expected to sink lower towards 125.00 area. Apart from the recent rejection off the level, the price has also formed a Bearish Divergence in the process which is expected to contribute to the upcoming bearish momentum. As the price remains below 129.50 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Markets wait for new landmarks

Eurozone

Eurozone cannot stay away from the prospect of growing protectionism, which threatens to turn into a full-fledged trade war. The ECB meeting on June 14 considered this factor as the main risk for global growth.

The EU summit allowed reaching an agreement on immigration, but it became clear the following day that the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the leader of the CSU party, Horst Seehofer, considered the results of the summit insufficient, while the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland refused to recognize its results de facto at all.

The ruling coalition of Germany faces the threat of its disintegration, which would mean early elections and Merkel's departure from the political Olympus. This is a factor of strong instability for the euro, which can exert pressure on him. Indicators of confidence in the euro area are declining and the German indicator Ifo in the area of two-year lows.

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Published on Friday, Eurostat's report on inflation in June showed no deviations from expectations. Markit confirmed a slight slowdown in the manufacturing sector.

Currently, the euro has no objective reasons for the resumption of growth. Financial markets are closed during the US Independence Day on Wednesday. Hence, trading is likely to take place in a narrow range. On July 6, the "moment of truth" is expected on the trade restrictions of the US and China, which can significantly change the balance between the demand for risky and protective assets on a global scale. Also, the report on the US labor market will be released and we should expect a weak activity before this time.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, the EUR / USD will be traded in the range of 1.1600 / 1680, further dynamics will depend on data from the US. Strong data will open the way to 1.12. The weakened currency will allow overcoming the resistance 1.1680 and give a chance to resume corrective growth.

United Kingdom

Macroeconomic data from the UK comes out mixed and does not give a clear picture of the pound's prospects. The adjusted GDP growth in the first quarter was only 1.2%, where there is a negative flow was recorded for commercial investments. In May consumer credit growth slowed down, consumer confidence index from Gfk decreased to -9 in June. There is no positive trend.

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At the same time, there has been an increase in activity in the services sector and a decrease in the balance of payments deficit. There is an unexpected increase in PMI of the manufacturing sector to 54.4p in June, while a slight decline was projected. Markit's reports are of interest from the perspective of growth rates in August. the Bank of England should see positive dynamics in the economy in order to have a reason to raise the rate. Accordingly, the publication of Markit report on business activity in the services sector in June was able to support the pound in case of exceeding forecasts.

According to Brexit, there is no dynamic; the EU summit signaled to the British government that if it does not submit its proposals on a number of issues within the agreed timeframes, the exit may be formalized without a trade agreement and without a transition period.

The GBP/USD pair will continue trading in the range of 1.3100 / 80 in anticipation of new introductions. There is a slight possibility for the decline to resume by the end of the week.

Oil and ruble

As oil continues to grow, Brent is near $ 80 / bbl. and intends to make another attempt to go higher. The WTI reached a multi-year high of 74.81 dollars per barrel. Growth is facilitated by a number of factors such as problems with exports from Libya as it came out lower than predicted, oil reserves in the US, as well as an attempt to block all exports from Iran within the framework of the unspoken program "our weapons are unfair competition". The growth in production of OPEC + member countries, agreed last week, the market may regard as insufficient.

Going above 80 hinder the demand for the dollar and fears of a geopolitical nature on the eve of the start of the trade war between the US and China. By the end of the week, nevertheless, we expect Brent to grow above this level. For WTI, the goal is to gain a foothold above $ 75 / bbl.

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USD/CAD analysis for July 03, 2018

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Recently, USD/CAD has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3142. According to the H1 time frame, I found a breakout of the bearish flag pattern, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a strong downward trend in the background and my advice is to watch for potential selling opprtunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.3060.

Resistance levels: R1: 1.3226R2: 1.3263 R3: 1.3300

Support levels: S1: 1.3150S2: 1.3111S3: 1.3075 Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for July 03, 2018

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Recently, EUR/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1672. According to the H1 time frame, I found a breakout of the supply trendline, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a rising trendline, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1720 and at the price of 1.1840.

Resistance levels: R1: 1.1683R2: 1.1724 R3: 1.1770

Support levels: S1: 1.1596 S2: 1.1550 S3: 1.1510 Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 03/07/2018

In June, the UK Construction PMI index rose to 53.1, beating the median forecast of 52.5 and the reading from May (52.5 points). The construction production is at a 7-month high and new orders grew at the fastest pace since May 2017.

The Construction Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the level of activity among purchasing managers in the construction sector of the economy. Any reading above 50 signals industry expansion; below 50 indicates a contraction. Construction figures are an important indicator of housing demand.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pound enjoys the market sentiment that appeared at the start of trade in Europe. GBP/USD approaches 1.32 slowly, reversing yesterday's drop and in the last minutes, an upside-down reading of the PMI index for the construction sector has become an additional impulse. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3191 - 1.3217 zones and there should be a pretty good reaction from the bear camp. If the bulls will break higher, their next target is seen at the level of 1.3292.

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Global macro overview for 03/07/2018

The Swedish Riksbank maintained the main interest rate unchanged at -0.50% in line with expectations. A surprise for the pessimistic market was that the bank maintained its position that it would start raising interest rates "at the end of the year". The market assumed that after the dovish position of the ECB from June and postponed the date of the increase, the Riksbank would follow in its footsteps. In addition, Floden joined the board member of Ohlsson in his objection to the decision to allow intervention on the currency market.

In conclusion, global investors might feel disappointed as the Riksbank did not give a clue regarding the next possible interest rate hike like the ECB did. Nevertheless, it is still very unlikely for Riksbank to hike before the ECB will hike first. There must be a clear sign from the ECB regarding the next monetary policy move until then all the possibilities regarding the hike are pure speculation.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/SEK technical picture at the H4 time frame after the decision was made. EUR/SEK drops from 10.42 to 10.31, probably under pressure from massively closed short positions in the crown. The level of 38% Fibo retracement has been broken and now the price is likely to drop towards the next retracement at the level of 10.28. Overbought market conditions and weak momentum support the temporary bearish outlook.

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Bitcoin analysis for July 03, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

Recently, Bitocin has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $6.624 and met my first objective target. Anyway, according to the H1 time - frame, I found an intraday bullish flag in creation, which is a sign that buying may resume. My advice is to watch for a breakout of the bullish flag to confirm further upward continuation. The upward target is set at the price of $6.956.

$6.624 – Intraday resistance; $6.538 – Intraday support; $6.956 – Objective target

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Trading plan for the European session of GBP / USD pair on July 3

To open long positions for GBP / USD pair, you need:

Only a break and consolidation at 1.3162 will be the first signal for the opening of long positions for the British pound in order to return and update the weekly high near the level of 1.3214, where fixing profits are recommended. In case of GBP / USD decline in the first half of the day, you can see the purchase after a formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.3114 or open long positions on the rebound from 1.3050.

To open short positions for GBP / USD pair, you need:

An unsuccessful attempt to consolidate at the resistance level of 1.3162 and returning will be a good signal for opening short positions on the pound, with the main goal of a breakdown and consolidation below support 1.3114, which will lead to a larger sellout of GBP / USD and a minimum update around 1.3050, where fixing profits are recommended. In the case of growth above 1.3162, the pound can be sold for a rebound of 1.3214.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Analysis of GBP/USD Divergences as of July 3. Slight uncertainty

4h

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The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart continues the decline in the direction of the correction level of 200.0% - 1.3048 after the formation of the bearish divergence at the CCI indicator. On July 3, no new emerging divergences are observed in any indicator. The retreat of quotations from the Fibo level of 200.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% - 1.3301. The consolidation of the quotes below the Fibo level of 200.0% will increase the chances of continuing the fall in the direction of the next correction level of 261.8% - 1.2638.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from March 1, 2018 and April 17, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded first from the correction level of 23.6% - 1.3111, and then from the Fibo level 38.2% - 1.3150. Strengthening the pair's exchange rate above the correction level of 38.2% will allow traders to expect continued growth in the direction of corrective levels of 50.0% - 1.3182 and 61.8% - 1.3212. There are no emerging divergences today. The consolidation of quotes under the Fibo level of 23.6% will increase the chances of the pair to further fall in the direction of the correction level of 0.0% - 1.3049.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of June 22, 2018 and June 28, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Buying of the GBP/USD pair can be opened with targets of 1.3182 and 1.3212 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 1.3150 if the closure above the Fibo level is 38.2% (hour chart).

Selling the GBP/USD pair can be made with a target of 1.3049 and a Stop Loss order above the correction level of 23.6% will occur if the closing is under the Fibo level of 1.3111 (hourly chart).

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Bearish trend continues along the euro

EUR / USD

On Monday, macroeconomic data on the euro area and the US as a whole came out in equilibrium, but where the equilibrium, there is the market follows the trend. Also, the media reports internal contradictions in German politics - the leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the same Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer came out with an extreme position on the issue of migration, threatened to resign, which jeopardized the coalition with much difficulty. Later, the CSU signed a memorandum with Merkel's CDU party.

The final estimate of the Manufacturing PMI of the eurozone for June was 54.9 against the previous estimate of 55.0. The eurozone unemployment rate for April was revised downward from 8.5% to 8.4%, and the May estimate remained at this level.

American Manufacturing PMI by Markit in the final estimate for the last month was increased from 54.6 to 55.4. Manufacturing PMI according to the ISM version was 60.2 against 58.7 in May and a forecast of 58.2. Construction costs for May increased by 0.4% (0.5% forecast).

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On the four-hour chart, the price failed to gain a foothold under the Krusenstern trend line (blue), but the oscillator's signal line Marlin moved to the drop zone (-0,0006).

Retail sales in the euro area for May are expected to grow by 0.1%, in the US the volume of factory orders for the same month is expected to grow by 0.1% against -0.8% in April. As a result, we expect the continuation of the current trend and wait for the price to support the trend line in the area of 1.1510.

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Bitcoin analysis for 03/07/2018

The new attack on Bitcoin users, which gains control over the Windows clipboard for the exchange of crypto-addresses, already monitors 2.3 million computers.

Malware, which is part of a family of threats known as "hijackers," secretly gains control over memory, acting in the background to ensure that users will not notice its presence. It then replaces the Bitcoin address copied by the user to the clipboard with the attacker's address, which later unknowingly pastes and sends coins. If the user does not double-check the address, he will have no idea that this replacement has taken place.

Bitcoin users face various vulnerabilities when using transaction equipment, regardless of whether it is an Android smartphone, a Windows computer or other device. The list of threats continues to grow, even if they contain e-mails, while other malicious entities exchange destination addresses in different ways. Attackers recognize that users copy and paste addresses and created malware to be able to use it.

Keeping up-to-date antivirus software is the main protection of users against the problem, along with double checking of the target Bitcoin address during the transaction, if this has been done using the copy-paste function.

Some hardware portfolios, such as TREZOR, also force users to double-check addresses. It is highly recommended to use the hardware wallet instead of mobile or desktop wallet as the level of security in hardware wallets is much more higher.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is clearly going higher after the Double Bottom pattern was made at the level of $5,742. The bulls are now just under the very important technical resistance at the level of $6,809 and the possibility of a breakout is high. The immediate support is seen at the level of $6,519.

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Trading plan for 03/07/2018

Turbulence in the Chinese stock market and the yuan's sell-offs cover other topics and send a wave of pessimism through the global financial markets. USD/CNY remains at the center of attention, over 6.70 at night, at the most since August 2017. Concerns about the effects of the US-China trade war and the "contagion risk" on other Asian economies bring stock markets in Asia to 9 months lows. Japanese Nikkei225 is losing 0.6% today. Shanghai Composite at some point has been lowest for 28 months, although in the last minutes there are some attempts to recover.

During the night the situation was tried by the vice president of the PBOC who said that China has many tools to control the foreign exchange market, including extensive reserves. He is convinced that it will be possible to stabilize the course of the yuan because its foundations are solid and the economy is immune to shocks.

Pressure on EM currencies is less affected by the main pair. EUR/USD is holding close to 1.1640. The talks between German Chancellor Merkel and the Minister of Internal Affairs Horst Seehofer, who threatened his resignation yesterday, were helpful. The interviewees reached an agreement on migration issues, which diminishes the risk of the coalition breaking up.USD / JPY is still in opposition to signals from falling stock markets. During the night the course went to 111.10 but quickly dropped to 110.80.

On Tuesday 3rd of July, the event calendar is light in important data releases. The global investors will focus their attention only on Construction PMI data from the UK and RBC Manufacturing PMI (s.a.) from Canada.

AUD/USD analysis for 03/07/2018:

RBA has kept the interest rate at 1.50% in line with expectations. There were not many changes in the announcement. The bank maintains that low-interest rates help the economy and maintain the monetary policy in its current state will help maintain economic growth and allow inflation to return to the target. Previously, construction permits in Australia fell in May by 3.2 percent m/m with expectations of no change. In annual terms, the increase amounted to 3.3% with a 9.9% forecast.

In the Bank's opinion, low rates help the economy. The stable monetary policy is in line with economic growth and inflation. Business conditions are positive. Inflation will remain low for some time. In 2018, CPI inflation may be slightly above 2.0%.

The real estate market has slowed down in Sydney and Melbourne. The consumption of home businesses is still a source of uncertainty. Their revenues are growing slowly, and the level of indebtedness is high. The salary increase is still slow, it will probably continue for some time. The Australian dollar remains at the level maintained for the last few years, despite recent declines. We can be sure of one thing - the interest rate hike will not take place this year.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pair was fairly stable around the night events, although in the last minutes the local low was made at the level of 0.7311 and now the price is trying to bounce towards the level of 0.7410. The market is still below the short-term trend line resistance and only a sustained breakout through it can change the bias from bearish to more bullish. Momentum remains around its fifty level but points to the upside. The next resistance levels are seen at 0.7445 and 0.7475.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 03, 2018

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Overview:

The pivot point is seen at the price of 0.9857, but the price is still trading above it around the 0.9943 level. The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9943. The strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9943 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9943, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9943 (the level of 0.9943 coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9943, so it would be good to sell at 0.9940 with the first target of 0.9795. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9733. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9733. On the other hand, the stop loss order should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.0055

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of July 3

Dear colleagues.

The Euro/Dollar pair is expected to continue its movement upward after the breakdown of 1.1684. The price of the Pound/Dollar pair almost increased the ascending structure from June 28 with a breakdown at 1.3099. For the Dollar/Franc pair, the level. 0.9969 is the key support for the downward structure from June 28. For the he Dollar/Yen pair, we follow the upward structure of June 26, the development is expected after the breakdown of 111.10. For the pair Euro/Yen, the continuation of the upward movement from June 28 is expected after the breakdown of 129.90. For the Pound/Yen pair, the price forms an upward structure from June 28, the development is expected after the breakdown of 146.70, currently the price is in the zone of initial conditions.

The forecast for July 3:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the H1 scale:

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For the Euro/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1807, 1.1771, 1.1718, 1.1684, 1.1633, 1.1610 and 1.1578. Here, we continue to monitor the upward structure formation of June 28. The upward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 1.1684, in this case the target is 1.1718 near the consolidated level. The breakdown at the level of 1.1718 should be accompanied by a determined upward movement, with the target at 1.1771. The potential value for the top is the 1.1807 level and we expect a downward pullback upon reaching that area.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1.1633-1.1610, breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction with the target at 1.1578, this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1684 Take profit: 1.1715

Buy 1.1722 Take profit: 1.1770

Sell: 1.1631 Take profit: 1.1611

Sell: 1.1608 Take profit: 1.1580

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For the Pound/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3306, 1.3274, 1.3225, 1.3198, 1.3174, 1.3165, 1.3141 and 1.3099. Here, the price almost lifted the ascending structure from June 28 which requires another breakdown at 1.3099, and in this case the first target is 1.3049. The upward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 1.3174, in this case the target is 1.3198. Short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor 1.3198 - 1.3225, the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a determined trend to the 1.3274 level. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.3306, we expect a downward pullback upon reaching that area.

The main trend is the upward structure formation of June 28

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3198 Take profit: 1.3223

Buy: 1.3227 Take profit: 1.3272

Sell: 1.3165 Take profit: 1.3143

Sell: 1.3138 Take profit: 1.3105

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For the Dollar/Franc pair, the key levels in the H1 scale are: 0.9993, 0.9969, 0.9918, 0.9902, 0.9888, 0.9861, 0.9842 and 0.9816. Here, the reversal development of the downward structure from June 28 is expected after the breakdown of 0.9970, in this case the first target is 0.9993. The downward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 0.9918, with the target at 0.9902. Passage at the price of the noise range 0.9902 - 0.9888 should be accompanied by a determined trend, with the target at 0.9861, in the corridor 0.9861 - 0.9842 consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is the 0.9816 level, we expect an upward pullback upon reaching that level.

The main trend is the downward structure formation from June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9970 Take profit: 0.9990

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 0.9918 Take profit: 0.9902

Sell: 0.9888 Take profit: 0.9865

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For the Dollar/Yen pair, the key levels on the scale are: 112.00, 111.58, 111.39, 111.09, 110.74, 110.52 and 110.25. Here, the continuation of the upward cycle from June 26 is expected after the breakdown of 111.10, and in this case the target is 111.39, in the corridor 111.39 - 111.58 consolidation. The potential value for the top is the level 112.00, and we expect a downward pullback upon reaching this level.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 110.74 - 110.52, the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is the 110.25 level which is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.10 Take profit: 111.36

Buy: 111.60 Take profit: 112.00

Sell: 110.73 Take profit: 110.52

Sell: 110.50 Take profit: 110.25

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For the Canadian Dollar/US Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3286, 1.3233, 1.3193, 1.3131, 1.3071, 1.2938 and 1.2872. Here, we follow the downward structure formation from June 27. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 1.3131 - 1.3071, and breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of a determined trend to the bottom with the target at 1.2938 level. The potential value for the bottom is the 1.2872 level, from which we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 1.3193 - 1.3233, the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction with the target at 1.3286 level, which is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward structure formation from June 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3193 Take profit: 1.3231

Buy: 1.3235 Take profit: 1.3285

Sell: 1.3130 Take profit: 1.3073

Sell: 1.3068 Take profit: 1.2940

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For the Australian Dollar/US Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7405, 0.7369, 0.7351, 0.7302, 0.7270, 0.7233, 0.7211 and 0.7174. Here, we follow the local structure formation for the bottom of June 29. The downward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 0.7302, in this case the target is 0.7270 near the consolidation level. The breakdown at the 0.7270 level should be accompanied by a determined trend towards the 0.7233 level, in the corridor 0.7233 - 0.7211 consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 0.7174, we expect a rollback to the top upon reaching this level.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 0.7351 - 0.7369, the breakdown of the last value will form an upward structure with the target at 0.7405.

The main trend is a local downward structure from June 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7370 Take profit: 0.7405

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 0.7300 Take profit: 0.7272

Sell: 0.7268 Take profit: 0.7235

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For the Euro/Yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 132.02, 131.20, 130.64, 129.90, 128.80, 128.34, 127.74 and 127.06. Here, the price has issued a determined structure for the upward movement of June 28. The upward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 129.90 with the target at 130.64. We expect short-term upward movement and consolidation in the corridor 130.64 - 131.20. The potential value for the top is the 132.02 level, we expect a downward pullback upon reaching that area.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 128.80 - 128.34, breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction with the target at 127.74, this level is the key support for the upward structure of June 28.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.90 Take profit: 130.60

Buy: 130.66 Take profit: 131.20

Sell: 128.80 Take profit: 128.38

Sell: 128.30 Take profit: 127.80

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For the Pound/Yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 148.80, 148.10, 147.48, 146.67, 145.62, 145.11 and 144.52. Here, the price forms an upward structure from June 28. The upward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 146.67, with the target at 147.48, in the corridor 147.48 - 148.10 consolidation. The potential value for the top is the 148.89 level, we expect a downward pullback upon reaching this area.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 145.62 - 145.11, breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction with the target at 144.52, this level is the key support for the upward structure of June 28.

The main trend is the upward structure formation of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 146.68 Take profit: 147.45

Buy: 147.50 Take profit: 148.10

Sell: 145.60 Take profit: 145.14

Sell: 145.10 Take profit: 144.55

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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EUR / USD. 2 July. Trading system "Regression channels". Bulls seized the initiative, but hardly for long

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The moving average (20; flattened) is up.

–°CI: 21.1472

On June 29, the currency pair EUR / USD made a breakthrough and overcame the moving middle line. Nevertheless, the trend remains descending, and we state the fact that the pair correction has become deeper. This means that the advantage of the US dollar is gradually beginning to dry up, traders do not find good reasons for opening new and large shorts. And it is not surprising, because now it is completely unclear how to end the whole epic with trade wars between the States and partners. On Monday, July 2, we should pay attention to the indices of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the EU Markit and the similar ISM index of the USA. Also today, the unemployment rate in Europe for May will be published. The forecasts for these reports are neutral, but any negative information from the EU can bring traders back to dollar purchases, most likely short-term. Both channels of linear regression are still directed downwards, which indicates that the downward trend in the medium and long-term plans for the instrument remains in place.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1597

S2 - 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.1719

R2 - 1.1841

R3 = 1.1963

Trading recommendations:

Currency pair EUR / USD has overcome the moving, but it can not develop the movement. The color of 1-2 bars in the purple color will serve as a signal for the opening of new buy-positions with the target of 1,1719. Meanwhile, a downward correction has begun and continued.

Orders for sale can be reopened if traders are fixed below the moving average line and, preferably, at 1.1597 with a target of 1.1475. In this case, the formation of a downtrend is likely to resume.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

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Control zones of EUR / USD pair 02.07.18

The movement of Friday was impulsive, which allowed the pair to gain a foothold above the control zone a of 1.1628-1.1619. Continued growth is a priority at the beginning of this week, and the probability of updating the Friday's maximum is 70%.

With a decrease in the exchange rate, it is necessary to look for favorable prices in purchasing the instrument. The first support is the control zone a of 1.1645-1.1641. The emergence of demand for this zone will allow the pair to continue its growth. The first goal of the upward movement is a weekly short-term control zone of 1.1729-1.1711. When buying from the control zone a, our profit will be 70 points, so the stop loss size should not exceed 25 points.

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In the event of breakdown and consolidation below the control zone a, next support zone will be the control zone a of 1.1599-1.1590. While the instrument is trading above this zone, the upward movement remains impulsive. In testing the control zone a, it will be possible to get the most favorable prices for the purchase of the instrument, and the profit will already be 120 points. Therefore the stop size should not exceed 40 pp. To enter the medium-term range, a breakdown and fixing of the price above the level of 1.1729 will be required during the US session today.

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The daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

The weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

The monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Burning forecast 07.03.2018

Burning forecast 07.03.2018

The euro is ready for growth.

The main problem for the euro of the last days - the conflict inside the government of Merkel - is settled. Merkel managed to agree with Minister Horst Seehofer and his party-ally Angela Merkel, CSU.

Now a new attempt by the euro to organize growth seems logical.

Buy the euro from 1.1695, stop at 1.1650, profit at 1.1850.

Alternative: Sell from 1.1525.

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Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences for July 2. We expect a new drop in Eurocurrency

4h

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The pair EUR / USD on the 4-hour chart has increased to a correction level of 50.0% - 1.1680. End of quotes from this level Fibo worked in favor of the US dollar and the pair began to fall in the direction of correction levels 61.8% - 1.1639 and 76.4% - 1.1589. Brewing divergences on July 2 are not observed in any indicator. The consolidation of the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 50.0% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the EU currency and expect to continue growing in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% - 1.1721.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from May 29, 2018, and June 14, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the quotes were released from the corrective level of 100.0% to 1.1553 and started the growth process in the direction of the Fibo level of 76.4% -1.1789. Today, the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator is maturing. Its formation will allow traders to count on the reversal of the pair in favor of the US dollar and a return to the correction level of 100.0%. Fixing the quotes below the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances of the pair to further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Buy EUR / USD will be possible with the targets of 1,1721 and 1,1771 with the level of Stop Loss under the correction level of 50.0% if there is a close above the level of 1.1680.

To sell the EUR / USD pair is now possible with the targets of 1,1639 and 1,1589, as there was a retreat from the correction level of 50.0%, with the Stop Loss order above the opening level.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 03, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.1615. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 1.1615 to a top around 1.1650. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1676 followed by 1.1696, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1614 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 1.1615 and 1.1696; so we expect a range of 81 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 1.1675, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.1721) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.1614 with the first target at 1.1675 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.1696. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.1721 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 1.1615, a further decline to 1.1533 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 03, 2018

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From the Daily Charts we know the Gold bias is still in a Bullish Condition, this can be seen by the Gold still moving in an up Channel event. Now Gold has a correction and tries to test the nearest Support level at 1,235.72 but it seems that in a few days Gold will be back to its previous bias (Bull). This is already confirmed by the Stochastic Oscilator now at the Oversold level and preparr to go up above the 20 level, so the next few days ahead it seems the Gold will go back to the previous bias (Bull).

(Dsiclaimer)

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Technical analysis of Crude Oil for July 03, 2018

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If we look at the Daily Charts, we will see that the Crude Oil bias is in a Bullish condition, but it seems already overbought this situation. The price is already at the top of the up channel and the Stochastic Oscillator is already at the overbought level too, basing on this fact in a few days ahead there is a possibility for the #CL to get a down correction to the Moving Average Period 21 or to the (RBS) Resistance Become Support Zone at 61.90-66.64 level.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 03, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Retail Sales m/m, Spanish Unemployment Change, and French Gov Budget Balance. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Total Vehicle Sales, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, and Factory Orders m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1701.

Strong Resistance:1.1693.

Original Resistance: 1.1680.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1667.

Target Inner Area: 1.1636.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1605.

Original Support: 1.1592.

Strong Support: 1.1579.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1571.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, July 03, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the 10-y Bond Auction and Monetary Base y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Total Vehicle Sales, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, and Factory Orders m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.53.

Resistance. 2: 111.31.

Resistance. 1: 111.09.

Support. 1: 110.83.

Support. 2: 110.61.

Support. 3: 110.39.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for July 3, 2018

GBP/USD is currently quite bearish in nature but having certain volatility along the way between the range of 1.3050 to 1.3320 area, the price is expected to show some bullish momentum in the coming days. Ahead of the upcoming high impact USD and GBP reports and events this week, certain volatility and spikes in the market may be observed.

Today GBP Construction PMI report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight increase to 52.6 from the previous figure of 52.5 and FPC Meeting Minutes is going to be held which is expected to cover the in-depth financial condition of UK and will discuss some important financial decision for the economy. The economic event is expected to have a good impact on further gains of GBP ahead of the upcoming Bank of England Governor Carney's speech this week.

On the other hand, today USD Factory Orders report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.1% from the previous negative value of -0.8%, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism is expected to increase to 54.2 from the previous figure of 53.9 and Total Vehicle Sales report is also expected to increase to 17.0M from the previous figure of 16.9M.

As of the current scenario, both USD and GBP is quite optimistic with the upcoming economic reports to be published today whereas USD might gain certain momentum in the short-term but GBP is expected to counter strong if Carney's speech this week provides a positive outcome for the further economic growth. A weekly close of this week is expected to provide the answer to upcoming definite trend pressure in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has formed certain Bullish Divergence in the process which is expected to push the price higher towards 1.3320 area in the coming days from the support area of 1.2850-1.3050. Though the bullish impulsiveness will not be quite visible before it takes out 1.3320 with a daily close in the coming days leading the price to push higher towards 1.37-1.3850 area in the future. As the price remains above 1.2850-1.3050 area, the bullish pressure is expected in this pair.

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The yen broke off its teeth on the divergence

The publication of the minutes of the June FOMC meeting, where the Federal funds rate was raised to 2%, the release of data on the US labor market for June and the expectations of the counteraction of opponents in trade wars fuel the interest of investors towards the Japanese yen. On the one hand, the closure of the position of carry traders in the conditions of the second-quarter developing countries, which is sad for the monetary units, the return to the funding currencies, the fall of the Shanghai Composite and the Chinese yuan increase the demand for safe haven assets. On the other hand, the different vectors of monetary policy of the Fed and the Bank of Japan are pushing the USD/JPY quotes in the direction of monthly highs.

Currently, the amount of import duties introduced in 2018 is equivalent to 4% of US imports and 0.5% of GDP. A drop in the ocean. The insignificant amount of tariffs allows the markets to ignore the factor of trade wars and the yen does not bring any special dividends. Large-scale military operations are another matter. Washington threatens to add another $200 billion + $200 billion to Beijing's existing restrictions. The EU puts an ultimatum to the US: if you introduce duties on car imports, we will respond the same for $300 billion. This is a serious amount that could slow the global economy by disrupting supply chains, which will immediately affect stock indices and global risk appetite. However, while all this is not happening, the attention of investors is focused on monetary policy.

The Bank of Japan is gradually coming out of QE ,but the financial markets are missing it. The regulator has reduced the volume of purchases of assets with maturities from 5 to 10 years at £20 billion to £410 billion. This is the third time it has been committed during 2018, however, the yen has strengthened only in the first case. In the second, it showed reduced sensitivity, which allowed the BoJ to act confidently for the third time. The total amount of the quantitative easing program in fact for the last 12 months is less than £50 trillion, although the central bank declared a £80 trillion growth in the monetary base. While the yield of bonds is already close to the target, it is not required to show heroism. Especially as the volatility of the yen is declining.

The dynamics of the bond yield of Japan and the volatility of the yen

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Curiously, according to a survey of Tankan for more than 10,000 large companies of Japan, respondents see the drop of USD/JPY to the mark of 107.26 amid the escalation of the trade conflict and the status of the yen as a safe haven currency. In the previous quarter, expectations for July-September were 109.68.

Further dynamics of the pair will depend on the mood of the Fed and statistics on the US labor market. The publication of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will allow investors to clarify the mood of the central bank. Whether it is ready to raise the Federal funds rate four times in 2018 or prefers a gradual and slow normalization of monetary policy.

Technically, on the USD/JPY daily chart the realization of the "Splash and shelf" pattern continues. A breakthrough of the resistance at 110.95 will increase the risk of reaching the pair of the upper border of the downward trading channel by quotations.

USD/JPY daily chart

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EUR/USD: It's restless again in Berlin

The optimism of traders regarding the outcome of the EU summit, which ended at the end of last week, was premature. First, the European press reported that not all the countries of the Alliance supported the final decision on the migration issue. Second, the summit failed to resolve the political crisis in Germany, despite Brussels' intention to renegotiate the terms of the Dublin agreement. Such disappointing trends exerted a corresponding pressure on the euro, so the EUR/USD pair started the trading week with a price pullback.

So, again, Germany. Let me briefly recall the essence of the political conflict: German Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer, who was appointed to his position under the quota of CSU, categorically disagrees with the position of Angela Merkel in the migration issue. He advocates the prevention of "secondary migration", when migrants come to Germany who have already applied for asylum in other EU countries. The Chancellor, in turn, says that Germany should not take a stand in isolation on the migration issue, as this will only exacerbate the problem at the European level. That is why she brought this issue to the EU summit, where after a long and difficult debate, the parties nevertheless came to a common opinion, agreeing to establish new rules for the reception of migrants and to review the Dublin agreement on the distribution of refugees.

However, the outcome of the summit did not satisfy Horst Seehofer. The obstinate minister was skeptical about this decision, which is too declarative in nature. Last night, the leader of the Christian Social Union held a meeting among the leadership of the party, where he discussed his further actions. There are few options in general, only two. The minister can, by direct, order close the country's borders, thus preventing "secondary migration". Otherwise, he declared his readiness to resign as Minister of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the leader of the CSU.

In general, these scenarios will in any case end with the resignation of Seehofer - either at his own will or at Merkel's "will", who will be forced to dismiss him in the event of an unauthorized decision to close the borders. However, there is a third option. It should be noted here that other members of the leadership of CSU did not support his resignation and actively dissuaded from such a decision. Therefore, it is possible that the Christian-Social Union can support the CDU (Merkel) in the migration issue if it goes to a "certain compromise", for example, significantly tightening control at the border.

Therefore, to date, there is no definitive solution: Germany is still in the balance of the political crisis, since the resignation of Seehofer can destroy the construction of the government coalition. If the rest of the members of the CSU go to the minister of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, all this will lead to re-elections. And the new re-elections do not promise anything good to Merkel.

Influential public opinion institute Yougov recently published the results of one poll. It turned out that more than 40% of Germans believed that Angela Merkel should step down as Chancellor. Moreover, among the supporters of the CDU/CSU, many also called for the chancellor "to retire" - almost 30% of the respondents. It is noteworthy that more than half of the respondents believe that the current coalition will collapse before the next parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for 2021. All this suggests that in the case of re-elections, the political picture in the country can change significantly, and not in the best for Brussels side. In particular, the right-populist party "Alternative for Germany" is gaining momentum, which is not only for the country's exit from the eurozone, but for the "dissolution" of the EU as a whole. Anti-European sentiment among the Germans is still popular, so new elections can strengthen the position of Eurosceptics in the parliament.

This fundamental picture puts pressure on the European currency: the downward pullback is still limited, as the situation remains in limbo. If Seehofer reaches a compromise with Merkel, the euro will find support, but otherwise the euro/dollar pair will update the local lows.

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From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair has not been able to overcome the main resistance level 1.1670 (the middle Bollinger Bands line, which coincides with the Kijun-sen line on the daily chart). This circumstance indicates that technically the pair still remains under considerable pressure. The support level is the price minimum of the year - 1.1508 - which coincides with the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1. By and large, today the fate of the pair is in the hands of German politicians. The economic calendar is practically empty today, so traders will focus their attention only on political battles in Berlin.

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AUD / USD: The Aussie did not keep altitude

On Friday, the Australian dollar paired with the US currency unexpectedly and fairly rapidly strengthened, reaching the 74th figure. However today, the Aussie has already fallen to the bottom of the annual minima, leveling the success of last week. Such wavelike price fluctuations reflect the general nervousness of the market, which is caused by the trade war between the US and China.

Despite the background pressure of the US-China conflict, Friday's weakening of the US dollar was quite unexpected. By and large, traders had no reason for such impulse movement. Of course, the greenback now takes a somewhat controversial position. On one hand, the currency is under pressure from Trump's foreign trade policy, but on the other hand, it continues to be in demand, although not as active as in the spring.

Interest in reliable assets, among which "the dollar" is listed, is also fueled by political conflicts in the European Union, where the migration crisis again flares up. There are reasonable risks that this crisis will provoke the collapse of the government coalition in Germany, and Europe will again find itself in a swamp of political uncertainty. And if traders survived the political crises in Italy and Spain which is relatively easy, then German events can turn into very sad consequences for the market (from the re-elections to the Bundestag, ending with the prospects of the "hawkish" Jens Weidmann to head the ECB in 2019).

In other words, the boat of political stability is again rocking in Europe, so the demand for US currency does not decrease. Pay attention to the dynamics of the dollar index and compare with the level of profitability of 10-year US government bonds. The corroboration of these indicators suggests that the greenback grows without looking back at Treasury. Although quite recently, the opposite picture was observed: the growth of the yield of treasury securities "pulled" the dollar for itself, while many of the underlying fundamental factors were ignored by the market.

So what was the result of Friday's "failure" of the dollar? According to most experts, there were no prerequisites for this. Market participants only recorded profits on the last trading day of June against the background of ambiguous prospects for the US-China trade war. Today, the situation has largely returned to normal. The risk of political crisis returned interest to the dollar, while Beijing and Washington are in a "fighting stance", preparing the ground for further steps. So, in just four days (July 6), the first import duties of the White House against China will come into effect. On the eve of this event, the financial world is arguing about the possible consequences of this step, or rather, the effect from the likely "domino effect".

For example, the dynamics of the Chinese yuan speaks eloquently that Beijing uses the exchange value of its currency as a defensive weapon in a trade war and defends exporters with the help of devaluation. However, such steps are fraught with "side effects" (problems with liquidity in the domestic market, instability of the credit market, outflow of capital), which can turn into big problems for the Chinese economy in particular and for the world economy as a whole. Trump, in turn, has not yet used the whole arsenal of voiced ideas, at least in the matter of restricting Chinese investments.

If we talk directly about the Australian currency, then the raw material market is an additional factor of pressure. Steel, iron ore, and coking coal continue to lose value. It has become actively cheaper while copper reached almost the annual minimum (today, a ton of raw materials are traded at $ 6476, whereas at the beginning of the year the price was at $ 7090).

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All of the above suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia, at its July meeting (which will be held on July 3 during the Asian session), will not tighten its rhetoric, preserving the parameters of the monetary policy. External risks such as weak inflation and wage growth, a fall in the commodity market, and "cool" political relations with Beijing, all these factors reduce the likelihood of strong intentions on the part of the RBA. According to most experts, the Central Bank will return to the issue of raising rates not earlier than the second half of 2019, despite the growth of Australia's GDP in the first quarter of this year. Thus, the "soft" position of the RBA may increase pressure on the Australian dollar in the medium term.

From a technical point of view, the pair demonstrates a pronounced bearish trend, which is confirmed by the main trend indicators: Bollinger Bands and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. So, the indicator Ichimoku Kinko Hyo on the weekly chart formed the strongest bearish signal "Parade of lines", in which all lines of the indicator are above the price chart, thereby demonstrating the pressure on the pair. In turn, the price is on the bottom line of the indicator Bollinger Bands, which shows a narrowed channel, this is also a strong signal for the southern direction.

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Additional confirmation of the bearish scenario is the oversoldness of the MACD and Stochastic oscillators. The nearest resistance level is the Tenkan-sen line of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, which corresponds to the 0.7500 mark. However, in the near future, this level is unlikely to be achieved with a high probability of the AUD/USD pair updating to the annual minimum price.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The US currency again demonstrates its strength

The US dollar once again resumed pressure on the world foreign exchange market. The positive mood of Friday, which was based on the news that the EU members agreed to coordinate the solution to the problem of the migratory crisis, had already disappeared on Monday, as the heavy reality of the last months, the trade wars between the States and their economic competitors, returned to the markets.

The reports of the end of last week that the EU and Canada are responding to the US trade war, as well as the next reduction in the PRC of the yuan exchange rate against the dollar, returned market players to sinful land and showed that the situation around the trade wars will only worsen and that there are as yet no hopes of reaching agreements.

The hopes of many market participants that the situation around the trade crisis is normalized, again collapsed. This, in turn, allows us to believe that the escalation of events will support the rate of the US dollar, which, as we indicated earlier, is viewed by investors as a safe haven on one hand, and on the other, as perhaps the least able to suffer in conditions of trade wars. Given this, it can be said that the outlook for the dollar is still positive. In the worst case scenario, it can decrease on the local recovery of demand for risk in conditions of speculation. But this, most likely, will look like an excuse for fixing profits on American currency, as it was already observed at the end of last week.

In addition to the factors listed above, it should be recognized that the dollar is also supported by the Fed's monetary policy, which should not be forgotten. This is aimed at continuing the process of raising interest rates. After the June meeting of the American regulator, it became clear that this year, it will raise interest rates not three, as previously expected, but four times. Hence, in our opinion, this can be done at the September and December meetings.

Summing up, we consider it necessary to buy the dollar against major currencies, with the exception of the Japanese and Swiss currencies, at it has noticeable drawdowns.

Forecast of the day:

The EURUSD pair is testing the 1.1635 mark, the overcoming of which may lead to a decline of value to 1.1540.

The GBPUSD pair, following the eurodollar, also has a local drop potential to 1.3040, if it falls and stays below the level of 1.3155.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com