Overview of EUR/USD on August 2. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". Nonfarm Payrolls can return the demand for the

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – sideways.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -77.2485

Due to not the best indicators of business activity in the US manufacturing sector, as well as the technical need for correction, the pair started moving to the moving average line on August 1. On the last trading day of the week, traders will receive a very large package of macroeconomic information. From the eurozone will come information on retail sales for June, in America – the unemployment rate, the change in average hourly wages, Nonfarm Payrolls and consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan will be published. In general, all forecasts are at a high level and, if the real values of these indicators do not disappoint traders, the US dollar may once again be popular. In any case, the downward trend in the euro/dollar pair is still maintained. The fate of the US currency will also largely depend on today's news from overseas. The fact is that strong statistics can force the Fed to reconsider its views on monetary policy, and Jerome Powell can come to the conclusion that new easing is not required. In his last speech, Powell hinted at this: strong statistics and leveling of various risks to the economy – and a new rate cut is not possible. Thus, the forex market will closely follow the news from the US today.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1047

S2 – 1.0986

S3 – 1.0925

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1108

R2 – 1.1169

R3 – 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair started to adjust. On August 2, therefore, it is recommended to resume sales of the euro/dollar pair with the targets of 1.1047 and 1.0986 after the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down.

It is recommended to buy the euro/dollar in small lots if the bulls manage to gain a foothold above the moving average line, with the first target Murray level of "3/8" - 1.1169.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR/AUD approaching resistance, potential drop!

EURAUD is approaching our first resistance at 1.6330 where we might be seeing a drop below this level. Stochastic is also seeing a bearish divergence.

Entry: 1.6330

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 1.6421

Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 1.6227

Why it's good: Horizontal pullback support, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

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EUR/USD approaching resistance, potential reversal!

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Price approaching its resistance at 1.1119 where it could potentially drop to its support. Ichimoku cloud is also showing signs of bearish pressure.

Entry: 1.1119

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal pullback resistance

Stop Loss : 1.1180

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

Take Profit : 1.1029

Why it's good: horizontal swing low support

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USD / JPY. Trump in shock: new duties against China and the escalation of the conflict with the EU

The Japanese currency is rapidly strengthening throughout the market: the yen hardly updated its annual low (106.81) paired with the dollar, it also renewed a two-year minimum paired with the euro, and a three-year one paired with the pound. A pair of USD/JPY yesterday fell by 150 points, despite the growth in the dollar index and the overall dominance of the greenback. Today, the southern dynamics of the pair has continued, although not with such intensity - on the eve of the release of Nonfarm many traders take profits. Nevertheless, the yen is still in demand, amid an unexpected increase in anti-risk sentiment.

The focus of the markets – another escalation of the trade war between China and the United States. Donald Trump said on his Twitter yesterday that from September 1, the United States will impose an additional 10 percent duty on almost all Chinese imports (for $ 300 billion): this list of goods does not include those that had already come under a 25 percent charge. It is worth recalling that the first stage of the new trade negotiations, which took place the other day in Shanghai, was completed ahead of schedule. The parties did not comment on its results in detail, having escaped only with formal and veiled phrases about "certain progress". But judging by the fact that the American president announced the new duties to the People's Republic of China the very next day, there is actually no progress in relations between the countries.

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However, Donald Trump had not previously been optimistic about the negotiation process - he recently made it clear that the current trade negotiations are unlikely to end effectively. In particular, on the eve of the meeting of delegations in Shanghai, he suggested that the Chinese intentionally pull time, avoiding the escalation of the trade conflict and at the same time, hoping for a change of power in the United States next year. Simultaneously, Trump warned that if the parties did not enter into a trade agreement during the period of his first cadence, then in the period of the second cadence, the transaction would be concluded on more stringent conditions for the PRC or would not be concluded at all. Trump seems to have no doubts that he is being re-elected for a second term, despite the results of recent polls.

It is noteworthy that the refusal of Beijing to resume purchases of American agricultural products became the direct reason for introducing new duties. Let me remind you that at the end of the G20 summit, the parties agreed on mutual concessions - China resumes purchases of agricultural products, and the United States lifts sanctions against Huawei. However, it soon became clear that Washington's relief was more of a formal nature - for example, the Chinese technology giant remained on the "black list" of the Americans, despite certain concessions (in particular, they were allowed to implement certain types of processors). Beijing responded to the situation accordingly - refused to fulfill its part of the agreements.

In addition to the escalation of the trade war between China and the United States, there are several other reasons for the growth of anti-risk sentiment in the market, and accordingly for the further growth of the Japanese currency. Firstly, Japan excluded South Korea from the so-called "white list" of countries with minimal trade restrictions. Now, Japanese exporters need to obtain individual permits for the supply of each batch of their products (and we are talking about a thousand industrial products). Relations between the countries deteriorated after the scandal with the demands of Seoul from Tokyo to pay compensation for the years of colonization of the Korean Peninsula in the last century. And although the news should hit the Japanese currency first, the yen continues to gain momentum due to the demand for defensive assets.

Moreover, according to the American press, Donald Trump will make a statement tonight regarding the prospects for trade relations with the European Union. Obviously, we will talk about the possible introduction of additional tariffs on the import of European cars. Last year, the trade war between the US and the EU was averted, but at the beginning of this year, the situation escalated again. Specialists of the US Department of Commerce prepared and handed over a report on the import of cars to the States from Europe to the American president. Following that, Trump had to make the appropriate decision: to introduce protective duties or not. In May of this year, against the background of the escalation of the trade war with China, Trump did not dare to open the "second front" of the trade war - he postponed the introduction of import duties on European cars for six months, that is, until the autumn. Today, he may intimidate Brussels with barriers again. However, EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom stated a month ago that if the United States imposes duties on manufactured cars against EU countries, Brussels will respond with its own duties - by 35 billion euros.

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Thus, the growth of anti-risk sentiment in the market is fully justified, as is the strengthening of the Japanese currency. If we talk about the technical side of the issue, then the priority is definitely beyond the south. The Ichimoku indicator on the daily chart formed a bearish signal "Parade of lines", in which the price is under all its main lines and under the Kumo cloud. Secondly, the pair is between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which also indicates a downward trend. The nearest downward target (support level) is the mark of 106.15, which corresponds to the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart.

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USD/CAD testing resistance, potential drop!

USDCAD is testing our first resistance at 1.3238 where we are expecting a drop below this level.

Entry :1.3238

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance

Stop Loss : 1.3297

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.3107

Why it's good : horizontal overlap support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on August 2. The pound remains under pressure after yesterday's decision of the Bank

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Despite the pound's attempt to form a correctional wave of growth in the second half of the day after a weak report on manufacturing activity in the US, buyers did not manage to get above the important resistance level of 1.2160, to which I repeatedly paid attention to. At the moment, given that a report on the US labor market is being released today, bulls are required to keep the level of 1.2083 in the first half of the day, forming a false breakdown on which will allow us to rely on a repeated upward correction to the resistance area of 1.2160, where I recommend taking profits. Consolidation above this range, after weak data on unemployment in the US, will make it possible for us to start a conversation on the topic of the pound's continued growth in the region of a high of 1.2240. In case GBP/USD further declines, it is best to look closely at long positions from lows of 1.2040 and 1.1985.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

For the third time, sellers have set their sights on support around 1.2083, a breakthrough of which will only strengthen the bearish trend and lead to an update of 1.2083 and 1.2040 lows, where I recommend taking profits. However, one should not forget that data on the US labor market may affect traders, and a weak report on the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector may force a profit in the US dollar, which will lead to an upward correction in GBP/USD. In this scenario, it is best to rely on short positions after the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.2160 or to sell the pound from a high of 1.2240, which was formed earlier this week.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the prevalence of pound sellers in the market.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound falls, support will be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the region of 1.2083. The upward correction will be limited by the upper line of the indicator in the area of 1.2160.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on August 2. The US dollar fell after a slowdown in growth in the manufacturing sector

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Euro buyers took advantage of a weak report on the ISM manufacturing index and managed to return yesterday to the resistance level of 1.1066, on which further growth today depends on. As long as trade is conducted above this range, we can expect a continuation of the upward correction in the resistance area of 1.1100, above which it will be extremely difficult to break through. In the event of weak data on the volume of retail trade in the eurozone, an attempt to fall to the support level of 1.1066 is not excluded. The formation of a false breakout on it will be an additional signal to open long positions in EUR/USD. Otherwise, you can buy immediately to rebound from a low of 1.1028. The task of the bulls will to consolidate above the resistance of 1.1100, which will strengthen the upward correction in the pair and will lead to an update of the high of 1.1137, where I recommend to take profit.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers will be waiting for data on retail and producer prices in the eurozone. Weak reports will help form a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1100, which will again increase the pressure on the euro and lead the bears to the support level of 1.1066, on which further movement will depend. A breakthrough will increase the pressure on EUR/USD and open the way to this week's low in the area of 1.1028, where I recommend taking profits. If buyers manage to consolidate in the first half of the day above the resistance of 1.1100, then it is best to rely on short positions after updating the resistance of 1.1137. However, the main movement will depend on data on the US labor market, which we will discuss in more detail in the review for the second half of the day.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

In case the euro declines, support will be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the 1.1035 area. The upward correction will be limited to the upper line of the indicator in the area of 1.1107.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Burning forecast for EUR/USD on 08/02/2019 and a trading recommendation

Market participants did not have time to recover from the unexpected outcome of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, as Donald Trump had already presented another surprise, announcing the imposition of 10% of customs duties on imports from China that are worth $300 billion. In fact, the United States imposed customs duties on all imports from China. We will not argue on how this corresponds to the principles of free trade, which the United States is so vehemently preaching. In any case, today, traders are still not allowed to relax and calmly think over everything that happened, since all the attention of market participants will be focused on the monthly report of the United States Department of Labor. Another thing is that the content of this remarkable document is unlikely to allow any far-reaching conclusions. It is expected that almost all major indicators of the labor market should remain unchanged. In particular, we are talking about the level of unemployment, which is currently at the level of 3.7%, and the length of the working week, which is still 34.4 hours. At the same time, the growth rate of the average hourly wage may accelerate from 3.1% to 3.2%, which of course raises the expectations for the growth of retail sales and inflation. However, the joy will not be complete, since outside of agriculture, 164 thousand new jobs were expected to be created, against 224 thousand in the previous month. Thus, the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor, in fact, does not change anything. Unless of course the actual data matches expectations. Well, recently in the market we invariably observe the same picture - a confident strengthening of the dollar. Of course, even a slight negative on the labor market of the United States can hold back the dollar's growth. But only for a while.

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The EUR/USD pair, having broken through the ill-starred level of 1.1100, rushed into an inertial move, closing its eyes to all possible cries in the form of an overbought dollar. Analyzing the trading chart in general terms, we see that the quote has moved closer to the psychological level of 1.1000, which by the way reflects the value of 2017, and a pullback has formed at the local overheating of short positions.

It is likely to assume that within the previously passed level of 1.1100, the quotation will slow down, forming a primary fluctuation of 1.1070/1.1100, where you should carefully analyze the price consolidation points. At the same time, we should not forget that in case the downward movement returns, the psychological level of 1.1000 remains below the quote, which temporarily keeps us from further decline. In view of the safety net, it is advised to wait for a pause, at least until the moment of breakdown of accumulation.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the main frame of time intervals on which the indicators are superimposed signal a decrease due to a formed background. At the same time, short-term periods signal an upward interest due to the current pullback.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 02/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The general manager of a company dealing in trade and investment in cryptocurrencies, Circle, believes that the United States will create appropriate regulations, as more and more companies are moving abroad.

Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg, Jeremy Allaire, he pointed to current trends for cryptographic market participants to move abroad as a factor motivating future regulatory policy in Washington.

Allaire's comments come as a follow-up to his testimony on Tuesday's hearings on cryptography and Blockchain, the latest in a series of sessions that US lawmakers have conducted about the growing industry.

"The increase in the number of projects related to digital resources outside the United States, the movement of companies to leave the US and projects wanting to start operations outside the United States is definitely attracting people's attention, I think it will eventually lead to legislative initiatives to try to provide adequate safeguards and protect investors but also clarity, which is very much needed to enable the development of technology and industry "- he said.

Technical Market Overview:

Not much has changed at this market since the beginning of the week as the ETH/USD pair still keeps trading inside of a narrow price range between two levels of $189.91 - $223.38. The level of the local support at $199.68 has been tested, but the price did not break below but bounced back to the range. The bulls did not make any decision regarding the possible move higher, so the bullish momentum is decreasing as the price goes nowhere fast. In order to continue the move upwards, the bulls must break through the Fibonacci retracement levels located at $223.38, $233.77 and $244.16. Otherwise, the market will stay inside of the trading range or will be pushed lower by bears to test the technical support at the level of $189.91 again.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $247.21

WR2 - $236.28

WR1 - $220.47

Weekly Pivot - $209.37

WS1 - $191.97

WS2 - $182.25

WS3 - $161.51

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 02/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The total and target Bitcoin supply amounts to 21 million units. Today 85% of this number has been dug. In addition, in less than a year - in May 2020 - another division of the prize for block mining in the BTC network awaits. Up to now, such a period was conducive to growth and was the basis for subsequent bubbles. It is no different now.

The current supply of bitcoins means that only 17,850,000 people around the world can own one whole coin. In reality, however, this number is even smaller because there are people who, for example, have lost private keys to their portfolios.

Estimates of the Chainalysis blockchain research company from 2017 showed that the number of lost coins amounts to as much as 4 million units or more than 20% of the total supply.

Looking to the future, in May 2020 the aforementioned reduction of miners 'payments will take place - the miners' award will fall from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC for a new block. This event, which, according to analysts' predictions, will increase the price of bitcoin.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has been continuing the move up and recently the bulls have broken above the technical resistance located at the level of $10,166. The new local high was made at the level of $10,432 on a solid upward momentum. The next target is seen at the level of $10,636 or even at the level of $11,068. The last target can be hit only if the bulls will maintain control over the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,468

WR2 - $11,040

WR1 - $10,062

Weekly Pivot - $9,661

WS1 - $8,704

WS2 - $8,287

WS3 - $7,289

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 02/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has made a local low at the level of 1.1034. The next target for bears is located at the level of 1.1023. The trend is still down and there are no signs of a trend reversal, but recently the bulls had stared a bounce from the level of 1.1034. They did not make it to the level of 1.1101 yet, but it is still possible for the price to test this level. Please notice the market makes lower lows despite the oversold conditions. The momentum remains weak and negative but might spike up during the bounce period.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1307

WR2- 1.1265

WR1 - 1.1188

Weekly Pivot - 1.1140

WS1 - 1.1055

WS2 - 1.1016

WS3 - 1.0927

Trading recommendations:

After the level of 1.1181 gas been violated, the best strategy for the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. The Ending Diagonal pattern has not been finished yet and the bears are in full control of the market. The longer-term target is seen at the level of 1.0814, from where the traders can expect a larger rebound.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 02/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has hit the lower channel line at the level of 1.2230 and reversed immediately towards the technical support located at the level of 1.2100. This support has been violated overnight and the pair has made a new local low at the level of 1.2077. The momentum indicator remains weak nad negative, which, despite oversold market conditions, indicates a further possible spike towards the level of 1.1983. The trend is still down and there are no signs of a trend reversal yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2594

WR2- 1.2550

WR1 - 1.2446

Weekly Pivot - 1.2406

WS1 - 1.2296

WS2 - 1.2257

WS3 - 1.2154

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to follow the larger timeframe trend. The larger time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of any trend reversal. The key long-term technical support at the level of 1.2420 has been violated and the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2100 and 1.1983. All the corrections are just the local correction inside of a downtrend.

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on August 2, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar has been falling for ten days in a row. Marlin's line oscillator has drawn a flat line up to the oversold zone itself, only this visual pattern is enough to consider the options for correction. The price yesterday stopped at almost the minimum of May 2004 at 0.6794 and taking into account quotation errors for 15 years, we can accept the achievement of this level. Our target of 0.6742 can be achieved after a correction from the whole 10-day decline of the "Aussie".

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But today, good data on employment in the US is expected. The forecast for new jobs in the non-agricultural sector in July is 164 thousand and a decrease in unemployment from 3.7% to 3.6%. If the data do not fail, it is likely to work out the range of 0.6773/94, the lower limit of which will be at least June 2014 (and the lowest point in the next 3 years).

On the four-hour chart, there was a weak convergence in Marlin, while converting the price to the target range, convergence may become more convincing.

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The potential correction at the moment is determined by the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the 10-day price reduction. This level coincides with the May 15, 21 and 23 minima at 0.6866. The first growth target will be the MACD line in the area of 0.6904 on H4. We are waiting for the development of events since the price can drop for 11 and 12 days.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, August 02, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Retail Sales m/m, Italian Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m, Italian Industrial Production m/m, and Spanish Unemployment Change. The US will also publish the economic data such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Factory Orders m/m, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with medium to high volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1135. Strong Resistance: 1.1129. Original Resistance: 1.1118. Inner Sell Area: 1.1107. Target Inner Area: 1.1081. Inner Buy Area: 1.1055. Original Support: 1.1044. Strong Support: 1.1033. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1027. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, August 02, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and Monetary Base y/y. The US will also publish some economic data such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Factory Orders m/m, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with medium to high volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3 : 107.59. Resistance. 2: 107.38. Resistance. 1: 107.17. Support. 1: 106.91. Support. 2: 106.70. Support. 3: 106.49. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on August 2, 2019

EUR/USD

The main event on Thursday was Donald Trump's decision to introduce additional duties on Chinese goods worth $300 billion by 10% from September 1. On this news, oil collapsed by 5.78%, gold went up by 2.19%. Pacific currencies weakened, but the euro showed an increase of 8 points.

In yesterday's review, we thought that the Fibonacci level of 123.6% (1.1073) became a resistance for the euro's possible correction - such a correction did take place, but slightly higher, to the resistance level of lows on July 25 and May 23 - 1.1102.

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We slightly lower the nearest target to just below the Fibonacci level of 138.2%, to 1.0980, which is closer to the old record levels in 2015 and 1991 y/y. We believe that this goal will be achieved on Monday - today there are data on employment in the US Monday, the business activity index in the non-manufacturing sector from ISM for July is expected to increase from 55.1 to 55.5.

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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator does not show signs of a significant correction, it probably has already happened yesterday. We are waiting for the price at 1.0980. Consolidating below the level opens the next target - the range of 1.0840/60, defined as the area of coincidence of the Fibonacci level 161.8% and the price channel line.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on August 2, 2019

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the British pound was down by 70 points at the moment, but not reaching the target range of 1.2032/55, went to a correction. We look forward to pulling down prices in the range today, and in the event of good performance on the US labor market, the price goes lower, to a target of 1.1986 - to the low of 2017. Either the second goal can be achieved on Monday, with the release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July, expected to rise from 55.1 to 55.5.

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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator signal line unfolds from the boundary with the growth area, which may indicate exhaustion of the pound's rising potential that is already weak, because when the Marlin line reached the top of the 31st (indicated by the arrow), the quote was significantly lower than the previous day's high .

So, we wait for the price in the target range of 1.2032/55, after which we focus on the level of 1.1986.

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Control zones for USD/JPY pair on 02.08.19

Yesterday, the pair fell a lot of times, exceeding four average daily moves. This indicates the strength of the downward movement. In similar situations, the probability of retest weekly minimum exceeds 90%, which happened this morning. It is also important to understand that making sales outside the average weekly move is no longer profitable.

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Today, the pair is trading in an important support area. Now, there is a move beyond the minimum of the last month. If there is a price hold in this range, a further decline will become a priority for the current month.

An alternative model will be developed in case the growth starts from the current rates. To enter the purchase will require the formation of a "false breakdown" pattern at yesterday's minimum. The main goal of growth will be the level of 108.09, which is the lower limit of the weekly average move.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for August 2

Forecast for August 2 :

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1162, 1.1135, 1.1100, 1.1074, 1.1025, 1.0989 and 1.10962. Here, the price is in correction from the downward structure on July 31. The level of 1.1100 is a key support for the bottom. Its price passage will have to develop the ascending structure. Here, the first goal is 1.1135. As a potential value for the top, we consider the level 1.1162. Up to which, we expect registration of the expressed initial conditions.

The continuation to the bottom is possibly after the breakdown of the level of 1.1025. Here, the first target is 1.0989. As a potential value, we consider the level of 1.0962, and near which, we expect consolidation.

The main trend is the local downward structure of July 31, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1101 Take profit: 1.1135

Buy 1.1137 Take profit: 1.1160

Sell: 1.1025 Take profit: 1.0990

Sell: 1.0987 Take profit: 1.0962

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2254, 1.2192, 1.2158, 1.2099, 1.2069 and 1.2021. Here, we are following a downward cycle of July 19th. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range of 1.2099 - 1.2069. The breakdown of the last value will allow us to expect movement to the potential target - 1.2021. From this level, we expect a departure to the correction.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2158 - 1.2192. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of the initial conditions for the top. Here, the potential target is 1.2254.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2158 Take profit: 1.2191

Buy: 1.2194 Take profit: 1.2254

Sell: 1.2099 Take profit: 1.2070

Sell: 1.2067 Take profit: 1.2025

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9931, 0.9910, 0.9895, 0.9871, 0.9854, 0.9819 and 0.9797. Here, the price forms the downward structure of August 1. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9871 - 0.9854. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 0.9819. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9797. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9895 - 0.9910. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9931. This level is a key support for the downward structure of August 1.

The main trend is the downward structure of August 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9895 Take profit: 0.9910

Buy : 0.9912 Take profit: 0.9930

Sell: 0.9870 Take profit: 0.9855

Sell: 0.9852 Take profit: 0.9820

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.55, 107.98, 107.62, 106.98, 106.48, 105.71 and 105.14. Here, the price canceled the development of an upward trend on the H1 scale and we are following the formation of a pronounced potential for the bottom of August 1. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 106.98 - 106.48. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 105.71. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level 105.14.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 107.62 - 107.98. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 108.55. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend: the formation of the downward structure of August 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.62 Take profit: 107.96

Buy : 108.00 Take profit: 108.55

Sell: 106.96 Take profit: 106.50

Sell: 106.45 Take profit: 105.71

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3324, 1.3297, 1.3256, 1.3224, 1.3175, 1.3156, 1.3129 and 1.3102. Here, we continue to monitor the local ascending structure of July 31. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3224. Here, the goal is 1.3256. Consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level 1.3257 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3297. We consider the level of 1.3324 to be a potential value for the top. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3175 - 1.3156. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.3129. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3225 Take profit: 1.3255

Buy : 1.3257 Take profit: 1.3295

Sell: 1.3175 Take profit: 1.3156

Sell: 1.3153 Take profit: 1.3130

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For the pair of Australian dollar / US dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6857, 0.6834, 0.6817, 0.6786, 0.6761 and 0.6738. Here, the intraday price has issued a local downward structure for the subsequent movement to the bottom. The continuation of the downward trend is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6786. In this case, the target is 0.6761. For the potential value for the downward structure of July 31, we consider the level of 0.6738. Upon reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6817 - 0.6834. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6857. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of July 18, the local downward structure of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6817 Take profit: 0.6832

Buy: 0.6835 Take profit: 0.6855

Sell : 0.6788 Take profit : 0.6764

Sell: 0.6760 Take profit: 0.6738

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.95, 119.52, 119.27, 118.89, 118.69, 118.22 and 117.88. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of July 30th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the passage of the price of the noise range 118.89 - 118.69. In this case, the first goal - 118.22. For the potential value for the downward structure, we consider the level of 117.88. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 119.27 - 119.52. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 119.95. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 30th.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.27 Take profit: 119.50

Buy: 119.55 Take profit: 119.90

Sell: 118.67 Take profit: 118.24

Sell: 118.20 Take profit: 117.90

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 131.10, 130.61, 130.30, 129.80, 129.51, 128.98 and 128.30. Here, the price has issued a local structure for the downward movement of July 31. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 129.80 - 129.51. In this case, the goal is 128.98. Consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 128.30. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 30.30 - 130.61. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 131.10. This level is a key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the local downward structure of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 130.30 Take profit: 130.60

Buy: 130.63 Take profit: 131.10

Sell: 129.50 Take profit: 129.00

Sell: 128.95 Take profit: 128.30

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

#USDX vs GBP / USD H4 vs EUR / USD H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from August 02, 2019. Analysis of APLs

Let us consider the comprehensive analysis of options for the development of the movement of currency instruments #USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD from August 2, 2019

Minuette operating scale (H4)

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US dollar Index

The movement of the dollar index #USDX from August 2, 2019 will occur depending on the direction of the range breakdown :

  • resistance level of 99.05 (warning line UWL38.2 Minuette operating scale fork);
  • support level of 98.60 (upper boundary of ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork).

The breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette (support level of 98.60) will determine the development of the dollar index movement in the equilibrium zone ( 98.60 - 98.40 - 98.20 ) of the Minuette operational scale, and if there is a breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL38.2 (98.20) of this zone, then the downward movement #USDX can be continued to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (97.95 - 97.80 - 97.65), and as an option - reaching the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (97.55 - 97.30 - 96.95) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 99.05 (warning line UWL38.2 of the Minuette operating scale fork), the upward movement of the dollar index can be continued towards the targets - the final FSL line (99.20) of the Minuette operational scale fork - warning UWL61.8 Minuette (99.40) - warning UWL100 .0 Minuette (99.90).

The details of the #USDX movement are shown in the animated graphics.

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Euro vs US dollar

Similar to the case of the dollar index, the development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from August 2, 2019 will also be due to the direction of the range breakdown:

  • resistance level of 1.1060 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operating scale fork);
  • support level of 1.1040 (warning line LWL38.2 Minuette operating scale fork).

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1060 will make it possible to develop the movement of a single European currency within the 1/2 of the Median Line channel (1.1060 - 1.1075 - 1.1090) of the Minuette operational scale, and if there is a sequential breakdown of the upper boundary (1.1090) of this channel and the initial SSL line (resistance level of 1.1100) Minuette operating scale fork, then the upward movement of this instrument will continue to the final Schiff Line Minuette (1.1125) and the equilibrium zone (1.1150 - 1.1170 - 1.1190) of the Minuette operating scale fork.

On the other hand, if the EUR / USD returns below the support level at 1.1040 on the warning line LWL38.2 of the Minuette operational scale fork, it will be possible to continue the downward movement of the single European currency to the targets - the control line LTL (1.1015) of the Minuette operational scale fork - warning line LWL61.8 Minuette (1.1000) - warning line LWL100.0 Minuette (1.0940).

The details of the movement option for the EUR/USD pair are shown in the animated graphics.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

The development of the movement of Her Majesty's currency GBP / USD from August 2, 2019 will also be determined by the direction of the range breakdown :

  • resistance level of 1.2130 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operating scale fork);
  • support level of 1.2095 (the starting line is SSL for the Minuette operating scale).

If the resistance level of 1.2130 is broken down, then the development of the GBP / USD movement will continue in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.2130 - 1.2155 - 1.2180), well, and, accordingly, during the breakdown of the upper boundary (1.2180) of the mentioned channel, it is confirmed that the upward movement of this currency instrument can be extended to the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scales fork - Minuette (1.2215 - 1.2350 - 1.2490) and Minuette (1.2240 - 1.2280 - 1.2325).

However, the breakdown of the SSL Minuette initial line (support level of 1.2095) will continue the development of Her Majesty's downward movement to the control LTL (1.2035) and precautionary LWL38.2 (1.2020) - LWL61.8 (1.1975) - LWL100.0 (1.1900) lines of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the GBP / USD movement options are presented in the animated chart.

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The review was compiled without taking into account the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index is :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Which currency suffered the most from the Fed's decision?

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The Fed met the expectations of the markets by lowering the rate by a quarter percentage point, while also being disappointing as it said that this is just a "mid-cycle adjustment". Markets, on the other hand, counted on the beginning of a long series of easing policies. According to Donald Trump, who did not miss the opportunity to criticize Jerome Powell, the central bank made the mistake of not declaring "a long and aggressive cycle of rate cuts." By the way, these statements led market participants to the idea that in the coming months, Washington could initiate currency interventions. Despite the fact that the presidential administration has abandoned this idea, the majority of Bloomberg respondents do not exclude such a development of events.

Although as a result, the July rate cut may not be the last in 2019, the markets lost their optimism. Due to their shaky plans for September, the US currency rate, however, like the dollar index, began to grow. Meanwhile, key stock indexes showed a fall of more than 1%.

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The recent meeting may well be a turning point for both the dollar and the markets as a whole. Recall that during the past two cycles, the federal funds rate decreased by more than 5 percentage points. Currently, the US central bank does not have such space for maneuver. This is due to the fact that now we have to carry out a decline from the starting point of 2.25% -2.50%. The situation is different from the previous two cycles, and Powell tried to convey this to market participants, but apparently did not succeed. If the nearest economic reports from the United States do not present unpleasant surprises, the dollar will develop growth.

Long-suffering pound

The most affected by the Fed's ambiguous rhetoric and dollar growth was the British pound. In tandem with the US currency, it collapsed to the marks on which it was during the Brexit referendum in 2016. Sterling has become even more vulnerable to political uncertainty in Britain.

In Asian trading, GBP/USD came close to 1.21. Later, the pair slightly reduced losses, but the picture as a whole remained negative. Failure below he 1.21 mark can trigger a new wave of stop orders and subject the English currency to an uncontrolled fall.

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The next word was for the Bank of England, which, of course, did not make adjustments to the monetary policy. In addition, Mark Carney and his colleagues abandoned any hint of future policy easing. The only thing that could not be avoided was the decline in forecasts for the economy. The scandalous "divorce" process of Great Britain with the European Union does not bode well for the English economy, obviously.

Despite the massive drop in the pound, many analysts have a positive view on this currency, considering it too oversold.

Gloomy euro

The euro was seriously injured from the greenback's rally. The main pair reached its lowest level since May 2017 on Thursday, marking at 1.1025. The support line is broken, and this could trigger a further decline in the euro. In the short term, a smooth entry of quotations to the territory of the ninth figure is not excluded. If euro bears break through another important mark –1.09 - pressure on the EUR/USD pair will increase. In this case, the euro will be able to fall to even more sad value - 1.04.

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Judging by recent events, the US dollar's domination is not under threat just yet. Jerome Powell's hawkish notes cast doubt on the widespread view that the US currency should depreciate in the near future.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar bet on the Fed and did not lose

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The USD index continues to update two-year highs, even despite the decision of the Federal Reserve to reduce the interest rate for the first time in 10 years and to stop the balance reduction process since August.

According to JPMorgan analysts, one should not be surprised at this kind of behavior from the US currency.

"The decision of the Fed on rates corresponded to the median forecast of economists, and now we are seeing a reaction in the spirit of "sell on rumors, buy on facts"," representatives of the financial institute noted.

"The rhetoric of the central bank was rather restrained and gave participants in the foreign exchange market the opportunity to recall that, in general, the level of interest rates in the US remains attractively high, and the situation in the global economy is tense," they added.

JPMorgan admits that the greenback may lose ground against currencies such as the yen and the franc in the future, but otherwise the potential for pulling down the US currency looks doubtful, especially in the case of the euro and the pound, therefore, bankers report that they refrain from any major "shorts" on the dollar.

The rate cut at the FOMC meeting in July by a quarter of a point was already taken into account in the quotes, and the key event was the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

At a press conference, the Fed chief said that the regulator does not rule out further cuts in the federal funds rate, but does not consider its reduction from 2.5% to 2.25% as the beginning of a monetary policy easing cycle. In order for this to happen, the central bank must see the real weakness of the US economy.

The comments of the Fed Chairman can be interpreted as follows: if the statistical data on the United States worsens, the regulator will lower the rate, if not, raise it or keep a pause.

"Apparently, the Fed, considering its further actions, intends to track the incoming information. This is the same type of data dependency as it did when the Fed indicated in a statement that it would be "patient", "says Bipan Rai of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC).

According to the analyst, the main idea of the FOMC's July message is that the market should not be 100% certain of a reduction in the federal funds rate at the September meeting.

"It seems that the Fed has decided to insure itself in order not to give the market a false signal. If the tone of the regulator's statement was too bearish, then investors would get a signal to cut rates in September. In addition, it would be a reason to talk about the fact that the Fed already fears an economic slowdown at the moment," said B. Rai.

It should be noted that the decision that the market expected from the US central bank with a probability of 100% turned out to be difficult for the regulator and was not unanimous. Two members of the FOMC - Boston head of the Federal Reserve Bank Eric Rosengren and his colleague from Kansas City Esther George - voted to keep the interest rate unchanged.

"The split in the Fed is understandable. From a formal point of view, the US central bank has no reason to ease monetary policy. In the second quarter, GDP grew by 2.1%, and in the first half of the year - by 2.5%. At the same time, unemployment in the country has been at a low for more than half a century, core inflation (excluding energy and food prices) exceeds the target by 2% (2.1% in June), consumer confidence has reached its highest since November 2018" - said economist Moody's John Lonski.

Meanwhile, the market seriously counted, if not on the Fed's aggressive monetary expansion (rate cut by 50 basis points), then on the door opened by the regulator for further easing of monetary policy. However, the US central bank returned bidders from heaven to earth.

In response to the FOMC statement and comments by Jerome Powell, the single European currency exchange rate against the US dollar fell to its lowest level since May 2017.

However, from a fundamental point of view, the weakening of the euro against the greenback looks quite logical. The differential yield of US and German government bonds now plays in favor of the dollar, and the fact that economic growth in the eurozone slowed down by half in the second quarter puts pressure on the euro bulls. The US economy is clearly growing faster than the currency bloc's GDP.

If we assume that the Fed makes monetary policy decisions dependent on incoming data, then one of the catalysts for the change in the dollar exchange rate could be the US labor market report for July, which will be released tomorrow. It is assumed that the strong figures will allow EUR/USD bears to push the quotes to 1.09, and a weak result will bring the bulls to life.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. Unexpected dollar weakness and hopeless pound prospects

The US dollar unexpectedly stopped growing in almost all pairs in the afternoon. The EUR/USD pair pulled back from the bottom of the 10th figure to the level of 1.1085, the USD/JPY pair dropped to the bottom of the 108th figure, and the aussie again went to conquer the 69th price level.

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In varying degrees, the greenback surrendered its positions in the remaining pairs. The pound-dollar pair was no exception: after the price again updated its annual low of 1.2078, a rather sharp reversal and growth followed in the middle of the 21st figure. By and large, a corrective pullback was expected, as the pair was gradually approaching its record high, that is, to a record low of 1.1986, which was reached in January 2017. As the pair's downward impulse exhaled, the probability of a corrective growth increased - from the bottom of the 20th figure. But the dollar was ahead of the event, weakening throughout the market. As a result, the GBP/USD pair retreated by almost 100 points only due to the devaluation of the greenback.

This price dynamics was due to several reasons. First, the ISM Manufacturing Index was published today, which, despite positive forecasts, dropped to 51.2 points, updating its multi-month lows. The structure of the indicator suggests that the employment component fell to 51.7 points (for comparison, it was at 54.7 in the previous month), and the price component of the index (inflation component) fell to 45.1 points, while the growth forecast to 50 -ty points. In general, the indicator has been falling for the fourth month in a row, disrupting the optimistic picture of the US statistical reporting.

After a strong Nonfarms and relatively good data on US GDP growth, today's release has become a kind of "cold shower" for dollar bulls. After all, the words of Jerome Powell are still fresh in their memory, as they allowed a further reduction in the interest rate, if key macroeconomic indicators show a steady decline. Yesterday, this rhetoric supported the dollar, as the key economic indicators that preceded the July Fed meeting came out (mostly) in the green zone or at the level of forecasts. But the ISM index "sobered up" many market participants, especially on the eve of tomorrow's Nonfarms, which traders could also be disappointed in, given the relatively weak report from ADP (according to their data, the increase in the number of employees amounted to 156,000 in July).

Amid doubts that have resurfaced regarding the Fed's future actions, the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell sharply. In just a few hours, this figure fell from 2,053% to 1,952%. The fact of such a rapid decline put additional pressure on the dollar, allowing bulls of the GBP/USD pair to return to the 21st figure.

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In general, the current situation shows how dollar bulls are uncertain in their abilities. Only one macroeconomic report was able to shake the position of the greenback, which has been building up its muscles throughout the day. If subsequent releases will also be released in the "red zone" (especially inflation indicators), the dollar will return the points gained in the medium term, as concerns about the next steps from the Fed will return to the market.

This situation will allow GBP/USD traders to open short positions at the peak of corrective pullbacks. After all, the fundamental picture remains negative for the pound, regardless of the US events. Johnson is still preparing Britain for the hard Brexit, and his aggressive rhetoric addressed to Brussels reduces the likelihood of any compromise. The market hopes for the help of the British Parliament, which can block the implementation of the chaotic scenario. But these hopes are justified only with the current composition of the House of Commons. In the meantime, the British press is increasingly suggesting that Johnson will decide to hold extraordinary Parliamentary elections. Here it is worth noting that with the arrival of the new prime minister, the Conservative Party rating rose by six points at once - that is, to 31%. The Labor Party ranking is now 21%. The gap in the ratings of Conservatives and Laborers was a record in the last five months. Such sociology also has background pressure on the pound, although the question of early elections is not yet on the agenda.

Nevertheless, uncertainty over Brexit prospects, as well as Johnson's aggressive attacks on the EU leadership suggest that the downward dynamics of GBP/USD is still justified. From a technical point of view, the pair is within the framework of the downward movement, as evidenced by the trend indicators on all "higher" timeframes (from H4 and higher). The nearest support level is at 1,2005 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the monthly chart). The purpose of a possible corrective pullback is the mark of 1.2290 (Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart): if the bulls overcome it, then they will consolidate again in the 23rd figure. However, given the fundamental picture, it will be difficult for the bulls to find a reason for such a significant upward spurt.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com