Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 4, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of 1.2614, just above the technical resistance located at the level of 1.2580, but now the price started to a pull back towards the upper channel line. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.2485 and the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2645. If the level of 1.2485 is violated, then GBP/USD has made an overbalance of price, so the odds for another wave down are higher. The last swing low and technical support is seen at the level of 1.2072, but there is still a long way to test this level of support.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2667

WR2 - 1.2540

WR1 - 1.2455

Weekly Pivot - 1.2311

WS1 - 1.2222

WS2 - 1.2062

WS3 - 1.2001

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 4, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Coinbase went offline four times in the last three months during the main Bitcoin price movements, and furious users who can't access their wallets demand a response.

On June 1, when Bitcoin rose from $ 9,600 to $ 10,380 in less than an hour, Coinbase users trying to access their portfolio received a message that the site was "temporarily unavailable".

On May 9, two days before predicted halving, Bitcoin's price dropped sharply by nearly $ 2,000 in 24 hours, probably due to the huge sale of whales and other investors. On April 29, Bitcoin rose by almost 12% to $ 8,600. In both cases, many Coinbase users have once again been unable to trade any digital assets. It is worrying that this problem was not solved even after the mid-March event, when some stock market users were unable to sell Bitcoins while the price dropped to $ 3,000.

Many users of the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States have reported that they cannot trade during times of peak Bitcoin volatility. Unfortunately, huge declines or rapid price increases are events when investors want to buy and sell the most. When users do not have access to their accounts to sell their crypto, and the potential profits can simply disappear, when nothing can be bought, losses can accumulate,

The Coinbase status page provides updates on current crashes, but only cites "connection issues" on June 1, May 9, and April 29, and "network congestion" on March 12.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the trend line support (blue and brown trend line color on the chart) and is currently hovering around the level of $9,500 after the bounce. The momentum is now weak and negative, so any clear violation below the level of $9,000 will accelerate the drop towards the next technical support located at the level of $8,565. The daily time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,128

WR2 - $10,392

WR1 - $9,960

Weekly Pivot - $9,277

WS1 - $8,866

WS2 - $8,158

WS3 - $7,756

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 4, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Chinese law enforcement agencies have discovered the operation of mining Bitcoins in what appeared to be underground burial sites. A local English-language news service reported law enforcement found illegal mining activities in the city of Daqing in northern China.

Police decided to investigate the area after a local oil company told law enforcement authorities about unexplained power losses. Policemen found an entrance near the mounds and discovered Bitcoin mining equipment that operated on stolen electricity.

Local media reported that law enforcement found 54 Bitcoin mining platforms in dog breeding in the same county in Heilongjiang Province at the beginning of the same week.

As cryptocurrency prices began to rise again, people's readiness to mine also increased. However, the government of the Chinese province of Sichuan recently announced that local companies must stop mining cryptocurrencies. This is especially noteworthy because, according to research at the University of Cambridge, the province is responsible for almost 10% of Bitcoin's global hashrate.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the level of $225.84 and is currently testing the upper channel line from below. This bounce is quite strong and if bear will not regain the control of the market soon, then the bulls will push the price towards last swing high seen at $253.00. The decreasing momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for Ethereum. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $217.65 and $215.58.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $307.85

WR2 - $277.87

WR1 - $257.91

Weekly Pivot - $226.70

WS1 - $208.30

WS2 - $176.78

WS3 - $157.13

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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GOLD Upside Still Safe!

Gold has plunged in the short term and now is trading around the $1,700 psychological level, the outlook remains bullish as long as the price stays above this downside obstacle. The selling pressure is high in the short term, but the major uptrend is unharmed, so the yellow metal could increase anytime again.

Today's ECB meeting could boost the gold price again if further stimulus measures will be added to fight the COVID-19 crisis, the Main Refinancing Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.00%, but the Monetary Policy Statement and the ECB Press Conference will bring high volatility.

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As you already know from my yesterday's analysis, the gold price was rejected by the upper median line (UML) of the minor dark blue descending pitchfork, so the current drop towards the $1,700 was somehow expected in the short term.

Gold has registered another false breakdown below the $1,700 level and below the $1,693 former low, but we still need another confirmation that the price will stay in the buyer's territory and that it could rebound soon.

The yellow metal has failed once again to reach the median line (ML) of the descending pitchfork, signaling that the bulls are still in the game. Another rejection or false breakdown with great separation below $1,700 - $1,693 area will suggest another bullish momentum towards the upper median line (UML) of the descending pitchfork.

  • GOLD Recommendations

The gold price is trading near a critical zone, a valid breakdown below the $1,700 - $1,693 area will signal a further downside movement. If the price reaches the median line (ML) and if it closes on it, Gold could make a valid breakdown below the $1,666 major static support as well and to confirm a broader drop towards the $1,600, $1,555 levels and lower towards the $1,484 support level.

Still, the failure to close below the $1,693 level could send the rate higher towards the upper median line (UML) of the descending pitchfork. Only a valid breakout above the upper median line (UML) will really confirm a strong upside movement. Technically, if the price fails to reach the median line (ML) and if it makes a valid breakout above the upper median line (UML), most likely it will approach and reach at least the $1,765 high. The $1,800 level is seen as a potential target as well.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for EUR/USD pair on June 4, 2020

On Wednesday, the pair rose and tested the upper boundary of the Bollinger line indicator - 1.1243 (the purple dashed line). It was a strong downward signal on small volumes. On Thursday, strong calendar news is expected.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the price is likely to start falling from the level of 1.1235 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the first target at 1.1169, the retracement level of 14.6% (the red dashed line). There is a possibility that the price may continue to go down from this level with the next target at 1.1112, the retracement level of 23.6% (the red dashed line). Strong calendar news which is set for release today can greatly affect the price movement.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci retracement levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price is expected to start falling from the level of 1.1235 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the first target at 1.1169 - that is, the retracement level of 14.6% (the red dashed line). There is a possibility that the price may continue to go down from this level with the next target at 1.1112, the retracement level of 23.6% (the red dashed line).

Alternatively, after reaching 1.1169 (the red dashed line) - that is, the lower retracement level of 14.6%, the price may rise with the target at 1.1295 (the blue dashed line) - that is, the retracement level of 76.4%.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for June 4

Forecast for June 4:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1344, 1.1294, 1.1254, 1.1168, 1.1137 and 1.1087. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of May 25. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.1254 - 1.1294, as well as price consolidation. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1344. Upon reaching this level, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1168 - 1.1137. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. In this case, the target is 1.1087. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of May 25

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1255 Take profit: 1.1292

Buy: 1.1295 Take profit: 1.1344

Sell: 1.1168 Take profit: 1.1138

Sell: 1.1135 Take profit: 1.1088

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2777, 1.2690, 1.2642, 1.2566, 1.2515 and 1.2441. Here, we are following the ascending structure of May 25. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2642 - 1.2690. The breakdown of the last level will allow us to expect movement to a potential target - 1.2777. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to correction.

A consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.2566 - 1.2515. The breakdown of the latter level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2441. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of May 25

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2642 Take profit: 1.2690

Buy: 1.2692 Take profit: 1.2775

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 1.2513 Take profit: 1.2450

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9671, 0.9639, 0.9618, 0.9586, 0.9564, 0.9533 and 0.9515. Here, we are watching the downward structure from May 25. At the moment, the price is in correction. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9586 - 0.9564. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.9533. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9515. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9618 - 0.9639. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. In this case, the target is 0.9671. This level is a key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the descending structure of May 25

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9618 Take profit: 0.9637

Buy : 0.9641 Take profit: 0.9670

Sell: 0.9586 Take profit: 0.9566

Sell: 0.9562 Take profit: 0.9535

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.87, 109.56, 109.20, 109.01, 108.72, 108.50 and 108.19. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of May 29. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 109.01 - 109.20, as well as consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 109.20 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 109.56. Price consolidation is near this level. We consider the level of 109.87 to be a potential value for the upward trend; upon reaching this level, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 108.72 - 108.50. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.19.

The main trend is the upward cycle of May 29

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.20 Take profit: 109.55

Buy : 109.58 Take profit: 109.85

Sell: 108.70 Take profit: 108.52

Sell: 108.48 Take profit: 108.20

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3735, 1.3634, 1.3583, 1.3545, 1.3452, 1.3422, 1.3346 and 1.3299. Here, we are following the development of the local downward cycle of May 29. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3452 - 1.3422. In this case, the target is 1.3346. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3299. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3545 - 1.3583. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the development of an in-depth correction. Here, the potential target is 1.3634. This level is a key support for the downward structure and its breakdown will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the target is 1.3735.

The main trend is the local descending structure of May 29

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3445 Take profit: 1.3581

Buy : 1.3585 Take profit: 1.3632

Sell: 1.3422 Take profit: 1.3348

Sell: 1.3344 Take profit: 1.3300

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7132, 0.7073, 0.7011, 0.6902, 0.6850 and 0.6774. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of May 15. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.7011. In this case, the target is 0.7073. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7132. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback. However, it is most likely that the reversal to the correction will occur earlier than reaching the potential level, namely from the range 0.7011 - 0.7073.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.6902 - 0.6850. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6774. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 15

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7011 Take profit: 0.7070

Buy: 0.7075 Take profit: 0.7130

Sell : 0.6902 Take profit : 0.6853

Sell: 0.6848 Take profit: 0.6780

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.53, 121.85, 121.23, 120.87 and 120.24. Here, the price reached the limit value for the ascending structure of May 22, and therefore, we expect the correction to go after the breakdown of the level of 121.85. In this case, the target is 121.23. Price consolidation is in the range of 121.23 - 120.87. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 120.24, to which we expect the initial conditions for a downward cycle.

The main trend is a local ascending structure of May 22, a correction is expected

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 121.85 Take profit: 121.25

Sell: 120.85 Take profit: 120.26

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 138.98, 137.82, 137.25, 136.04, 135.62 and 135.03. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the upward cycle of May 29. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 137.25 - 137.82. The breakdown of the last level will lead to movement to a potential target - 138.98. We expect a pullback to the bottom from this level.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 136.04 - 135.62. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the potential target is 135.03. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 29

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 137.25 Take profit: 137.80

Buy: 137.86 Take profit: 138.96

Sell: 136.04 Take profit: 135.64

Sell: 135.60 Take profit: 135.05

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 4, 2020

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EUR/JPY moved directly to the 122.70 target without taking a break first. Red wave iii/ now seems so stretched that a pause is needed. Red wave iv/ to at least 121.30 and possibly even closer to the 38.2% corrective target at 120.49 should be expected anytime now before the final rally higher towards 124.22 to complete red wave v and black wave iii. It sets the stage for a more time-consuming correction in black wave iv.

R3: 124.22

R2: 123.35

R1: 122.70

Pivot: 122.00

S1: 121.30

S2: 120.77

S3: 120.49

Trading recommendation:

We took profit on the final 25% at 122.50 for a 685 pips profit. We will re-buy EUR at 120.55.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 4, 2020

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GBP/JPY has completed red iii/ and we should now see a short-term correction in red wave iv/ towards the 135.10 - 135.30 area before red wave v/ takes over to complete red wave iii near 139.07.

As red wave ii/ was a complex sideways correction, we should look for a simple zig-zag correction in red wave iv/.

We also need to be ready that wave three may climb higher and extend further than expected.

R3: 138.58

R2: 137.52

R1: 136.95

Pivot: 136.25

S1: 135.85

S2: 135.50

S3: 135.10

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 131.95 with our stop placed at 133.50.

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USD/JPY to test 109.05 June 04, 2020

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The USD/JPY pair is now trying to break the 109.05-109.15 levels, its nearest liquidity pool. If this level is broken, there is a possibility that this pair will edge higher to the next target at 109.39. This scenario is likely to happen if the USD/JPY pair does not drop bellow 108.44.

(Disclaimer)

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 4 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pressure on the pound is gradually increasing.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

After yesterday's unsuccessful attempt to once again break through above resistance 1.2609 during the US session, the pressure on the pound gradually increased, which I repeatedly paid attention to in my reviews. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how another unsuccessful attempt to grow above 1.2609 led to selling the pound and consolidation below the rather important resistance of 1.2555, under which the main trade is now being conducted. Bulls urgently need to return to this level in the morning, since we can count on the pair's growth in the short term in this particular scenario. It is important to note that GBPUSD fell below the moving averages, which does not add optimism to market participants. Consolidation at 1.2555 will be a good signal to buy with the aim of re-growth to resistance 1.2609 and its breakout, which will lead the pound to new highs in the areas of 1.2647 and 1.2686, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on GBP/USD persists in the first half of the day, then it is best to postpone purchases until the support test of 1.2496, subject to forming a false breakout there, or open long positions immediately to rebound from a low of 1.2439 based on a correction of 30-35 points within the day. It must be remembered that in COT reports over the past week, the situation also remains on the side of the pound sellers, so you should be extremely careful with future purchases at highs. The COT report indicated that short non-profit positions increased from 54,799 to 61,449 during the week, while long non-profit positions also increased from 35,810 to 39,192. As a result, the non-profit net position became even larger negative and turned out to be at the level of –22,257, against –18,989, which so far indicates that the medium-term bearish trend has remained in GBP/USD.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers are cautious enough, as the pound's recent growth was more related to the dollar's weakness due to unrest, than to the strength of the pound itself. Bears need to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2555 and a rebound from the moving average, which will be an ideal signal to open short positions in the pair. However, pressure on the pound will also remain while trading is below the 1.2555 level, which may lead to a fall in the area of first support at 1.2496, but a bearish target will be the low at 1.2439, where I recommend taking profit. Testing this level can be a turning point in the current upward trend of May 25 this year. If the bulls manage to take the market under their control, then it is best to consider short positions only after a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2609, or slightly higher: from the highs of 1.2647 and 1.2686. However, a test of these levels will lead no more than to a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the formation of a bear market in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

If the pound rises, the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.2609 will act as resistance.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 4 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Euro will not suffer much from ECB forecasts.

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday, the bulls demonstrated strength and managed to keep the pair above the 1.1183 level, from which I recommended to open long positions. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the repeated test of this range at the US session led to a new sharp wave of EUR/USD growth, and then to a break and consolidation above the 1.1231 level, which buyers were not able to keep on today's Asian session. As for the current picture, the levels have slightly changed. Today, we are facing an important decision of the European Central Bank on interest rates, but the economic forecast from the regulator, which, as many expect, can put strong pressure on the euro, will be more interesting. If the bulls manage to stay above the 1.1195 level today in the morning, and also form a false breakout there, this will be a good signal to open long positions with the aim of returning and consolidating above the resistance of 1.1254, which will lead to the renewal of new highs around 1.1295 and 1.1344, where I recommend taking profits. If the ECB forecasts really will be too negative, then after breaking through support 1.1195 I do not recommend rushing to open long positions. It is best to wait for the low of 1.1139 to be updated, or to buy immediately for a rebound from the 1.1085 level with the aim of an upward correction of 30-35 points at the end of the day. In the meantime, the market remains on the side of buyers of the euro. In COT reports, a rather intensive growth of long positions was observed, which jumped from the level of 167,756 to 175,034. As a result, the positive non-profit net position also increased and reached 75,222, against 72,562, which indicates an increase in interest in buying risky assets.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers are still less active and the entire focus is now on the forecast of the European Central Bank, as well as on the speech of the head Christine Lagarde. If negative forecasts are given, then a breakthrough of support at 1.1195 will certainly increase pressure on the European currency, which will lead to a downward correction of EUR/USD to 1.1139, where I recommend taking profits. Bears will aim for the low of 1.1085, the test of which could be the start of a new downward trend in the pair. If the demand for the euro continues in the morning, then it is best to consider new short positions only after forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1254, or to sell already at the rebound from the new highs of 1.1295 and 1.1344, and the higher the better. However, you should not count on more than a correction of 25-30 points from these levels.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates real problems for buyers of the euro with further growth.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A breakthrough of the lower border of the indicator in the region of 1.1195 will increase pressure on the European currency. A break of the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.1254 will lead to new purchases of the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD holding above trendline support and looks for further upside!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.11670

Reason for Entry: Ascending trendline support, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, moving average

Take Profit : 1.13623

Reason for Take Profit: -27.2% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.11154

Reason for Stop loss: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 4, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro reached the target range of 1.1250/65 and today, with the support of the Marlin oscillator turning down, it is ready to head for a correction. The purpose of the correction is the embedded line of the price channel in the region of 1.1133. Consolidating the price below it opens a deeper target 1.1019 (May 1 high). If the price goes above the upper boundary of the target range of 1.1265, the second bullish target at 1.1342 will open.

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The divergence on the Marlin oscillator still formed on the four-hour chart (yesterday we questioned the formation of this reversal pattern). Target level at 1.1133 coincides with the MACD line, which it is aiming for. Working out this correction level is our main scenario.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 4, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound did not reach the target level of 1.2644 in terms of the Fibonacci level of 110.0%. The reversal that started yesterday began again today in the Asian session. The nearest decline target is the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.2424. Behind it, the target is 1.2237 at a Fibonacci level of 161.8%. The Marlin oscillator is turning down, and the reversal, as a leading indicator, began to show since Tuesday.

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Marlin is falling at an increased rate on the H4 chart, this is a sign that the price is still going to work out the Fibonacci level of 138.2%. The MACD line approaches this level, strengthening it. Therefore, overcoming the strong support at 1.2424 paves the way to 1.2237.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on June 4, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fulfilled one of our goals on Wednesday, defined by record levels - 0.6975. At the moment, the price is under the 0.6917 level, fixing it will extend the decline to the target level of 0.6830. It is very possible that the aussie will sharply fall, up to its reversal into a medium-term decline, since the Marlin oscillator forms a double divergence on the daily chart.

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The Marlin oscillator is declining quite quickly on the H4 scope, and you can feel its desire to quickly move into the negative trend zone in order to give the price a new downward momentum. This transition of the indicator can take place approximately if the price falls below the target level of 0.6830. We are waiting for developments.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 4, 2020

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair continues its steady growth towards the nearest target of 109.50. Consolidation above the level will allow the price to continue rising to the second target of 110.83 (November 26, 2017 low). Stock indices so far favor this desire of the dollar: S&P 500 gained 1.36% yesterday, while the Nikkei 225 is adding 0.68% this morning.

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Nothing portends a decline on the four-hour chart; the price rises above the indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator decreases in a small frame of the indicator discharge before further growth.

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USDCAD bouncing from 1st support, further upside!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.3482

Reason for Entry: 100% fibonacci extension

Take Profit :1.3733

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal pullback resistance, 38.2% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.3300

Reason for Stop loss: 161% fibonacci extension

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GBP/USD approaching support, potential bounce

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.24612

Reason for Entry: Horizontal pullback support, 100% fibonacci extension and 38.2% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 1.26348

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance

Stop Loss: 1.23622

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair for June 4. COT report. Bulls are full and can soon put bears on the

GBP/USD 1H

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The pound/dollar pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday, June 3, but the movement has already thoroughly weakened. On the way to the highs of April 14 and 30, buyers clearly became more cautious and stopped buying the British pound (and selling the dollar) with the same volumes and with the same zeal. Thus, we believe that in the near future the upward movement may be stopped. There is also a new upward channel on the current chart, however, it is more formal in nature, since it does not originate from the very beginning of the upward movement of the pair and has a too strong inclination angle, which does not imply any correction in principle. Thus, it shows well the strength of the movement of recent days, but is useless for determining the general trend. Based on the foregoing, the pair's new purchases are now considered quite risky. The only trend line is far from the current price, therefore, a downward correction can be very strong, and the upward trend will continue anyway.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels continue to be directed upward on the 15-minute timeframe, therefore, there are no signs of an upward trend ending here, just as there are no signs of starting the correctional movement. Only the lower channel can begin to unfold in the coming hours, and even then not down, but sideways.

COT Report

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Despite the fact that in total among all major market participants, the demand for the pound sterling did not change during the reporting week (a total of 8600 contracts for buying and selling were opened), professional traders mainly bought the pound sterling - +5205 contracts, and from contracts for on the contrary, they got rid of the sale at -1,686 transactions. Therefore, traders are upbeat and in principle, the situation has not changed at the end of last week. The GBP/USD pair continued to grow in the new week, which means that demand for the pound is not declining. The new COT report may show even greater strengthening of the position of large buyers.

The fundamental background for the British pound remains negative despite the fact that this currency continues to go up in tandem with the dollar. There were practically no important macroeconomic statistics in the UK and the United States this week, and those reports that could have caused interest were again ignored. The most interesting publications came on Wednesday, when just the pair showed the least volatility and stood in one place all day. Thus, traders continue to ignore most of the reports, and in recent days, the British currency should thank the riots in the United States. However, if the euro can still continue to rise in price, then the pound seems to have exhausted its growth potential. All the blame is the fundamental background from the UK itself, which remains very sad and disappointing. We have repeatedly said that the absence of a deal with the European Union, the very fact of Brexit, the epidemic of the coronavirus have a strong negative impact on the British economy, which can continue to decline in 2020 and in 2021, when most countries of the world can already show growth. Thus, in the medium and long term, it will be very difficult for buyers to find the reasons and reasons necessary for opening new positions.

There are two main scenarios as of June 4:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair remains in the hands of buyers, who so far remain in purchases with goals of 1.2642 and 1.2664. However, opening new buy-positions is now associated with increased risks. There is still no correction, which means a high probability of its onset. A short Stop Loss can be set below 1.2529 and, if it works, it is recommended that new purchases be made only after the correction is completed and an upward trend is maintained. Possible Take Profit for current purposes is about 70-90 points.

2) Sellers continue to remain in the shadow and will be ready to return to the market only below the ascending trend line. Of course, short positions can be considered up to this point, but now there are no prerequisites for this at all. We consider the minimum necessary condition for sellers to overcome the area of 1.2403 - 1.2423. Then it will be possible to sell the pair with the goals of the trend line (1.2350) and Senkou Span B line (1.2260). In this case, Take Profit will be from 50 to 130 points.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair for June 4. COT report. ECB meeting results can moderate the ardor

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement on June 3. This time the pair managed to grow by another 70 points or so, and also overcome the resistance level of 1.1205. Thus, nothing has changed over the past trading day. Buyers continue to dominate the market. At the moment, there is no sign of the beginning of a downward correction. The pair continues to gently trade inside the rising channel, without going beyond it. Thus, the bears have no reason to open short positions. At least the market participants can count on a correction, but in the current conditions, for its identification, consolidating under the ascending channel will be required. We remind you that in addition to the channel, there are also two upward trend lines that also support traders to increase.

EUR/USD 15M

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We see the same picture on the 15-minute timeframe. Two linear regression channels, both still pointing up and clearly signal an upward trend. Thus, at the moment, there is not a single signal that traders can use regarding the completion of the upward trend, even on the lowest timeframe.

COT Report

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The latest COT report showed that professional traders unexpectedly started buying European currency during the reporting week. Suddenly- because, from our point of view, the fundamental background was not in favor of the euro. However, over the course of the current week, it became expectedly in favor of the euro due to mass rallies and protests in the US. Large traders found reason to open new 7524 purchase contracts last week. For the reporting week, only 3817 sales contracts were opened, if we take into account the most important group of traders - professional players who work in the market with the goal of making a profit due to exchange rate differences. This information is already enough to understand that the mood of large traders for the reporting week has changed to bullish. The beginning of the new week also remains with the buyers, so in the new COT report we can see an even greater increase in purchase contracts among professional traders.

The overall fundamental background for the pair remains neutral, if only economic news is taken into account. However, today it may shift a little in the direction of the negative. On June 4, the results of the ECB meeting will be summed up and traders are waiting for changes in the parameters of the PEPP economic stimulus program, or rather its expansion. In addition, the ECB will hold a press conference and announce forecasts for 2020 on GDP and inflation. It is expected that forecasts will be adjusted for the worse, and ECB representatives will not be able to reassure and inspire optimism in the markets. However, market participants still want to work out all this information. It is no secret that in recent months most of the macroeconomic information has been ignored, and programs for quantitative easing and stimulating the economy are expanding in many countries. Thus, traders' reaction to the ECB's decision may simply be absent. But market participants continue to closely monitor what is happening in the United States and, as riots, rallies and protests continue there, they continue to sell the US currency. Thus, from our point of view, the topic of riots in the United States is now in first place in terms of importance.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 4:

1) It is possible for quotes to grow further with the goal of the resistance level for the 4-hour chart at 1.1312. However, for this, the bulls just need to continue to stay within the rising channel. Stop Loss levels can be placed below the channel and gradually transferred to the top. Potential Take Profit in this case will be 70 points.

2) The second option - bearish - involves consolidating the EUR/USD pair under the rising channel, which will allow sellers to join the game and start trading down. However, we also recommend waiting for consolidation below the Kijun-sen line, and then open short positions with targets at 1.1010 (upward trend line) - 1.0945 (Senkou Span B line). Overcoming each of the barriers will keep sales open. Potential Take Profit range from 130 to 180 points.

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ECB June meeting: preview

The euro-dollar pair is growing, as they say, "not by the day, but by the hour": the price was able not only to stay within the 12th figure today, but also to update the three-month high along the way. Buyers, apparently, intend to test the resistance level 1.1270 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart) in the near future, thereby confirming a trend reversal. And yet, despite the clear dominance of the bulls, buying now looks risky, especially in the context of the medium term. Tomorrow's meeting of the ECB may turn the attention of traders from American events, while the rhetoric of the head of the European regulator may put pressure on the euro. And if today the pair is growing mainly due to the weakness of the US currency (the dollar index continues to decline to 96 points), then tomorrow the euro will turn into a kind of "anchor", which will at least slow down the price increase.

However, there is no consensus on the possible outcomes of the ECB June meeting. But at the same time, everyone agrees that the issue of expanding the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) will become the central theme of tomorrow. So far, the European regulator has spent less than a third (namely 210 billion) of emergency funds, the total amount of which is 750 billion euros. Therefore, the central bank, by and large, can afford not to rush with further decisions on this issue, that is, not to consider the issue of expanding PEPP at the June meeting.

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But the main problem of the EUR/USD bulls is that most market participants expect Christine Lagarde to expand this program by 500 billion euros. And if the head of the ECB does not meet these expectations, the European currency will be under significant pressure, sharply weighing on EUR/USD. After all, it is already obvious that the 750 billionth volume is not enough to cover all the necessary "targeted" expenses - at the current pace the money will run out by October. Naturally, the regulator will hold several more meetings until October (July 16 and September 10), but if tomorrow Lagarde does not indicate the corresponding intentions, then the volatility in the pair will not be in favor of the euro.

By the way, the head of the ECB can also make a "Solomonic decision", thereby reassuring the markets - for example, declare an expansion of the program by 250 billion, extending its validity by next year. The central bank may also inform us about expanding the list of redeemable assets by including, for example, issuers whose rating has recently been lowered to a speculative level from investment. All of these measures would provide additional support to the eurozone economy in the current crisis. In addition, according to most analysts, Lagarde will again call on eurozone countries to increase fiscal stimulus to support the economy. In this vein, she can comment on the recently presented anti-crisis plan of the European Commission. Most likely, she will support this initiative.

It is also necessary to take into account the "German factor" in the context of tomorrow's meeting. Let me remind you that in early May, the German Constitutional Court stated that the ECB's quantitative easing program partially violates the German Basic Law. The judges did not "cut off the shoulder", allowing the European Central Bank to argue its decision within three months and prove that it did not exceed its authority - but otherwise the court would prohibit the Bundesbank from participating in this program. However, the court did not agree with the arguments of the European Court, which two years ago legalized QE. In other words, the judges questioned the legitimacy of the program, which the European regulator resumed last fall. And although Brussels has already stated that "a German court does not order the European Central Bank," general anxiety among traders has persisted. Here it must be emphasized that the above court decision does not apply to "coronavirus money" - the judges considered the legality of only the 2015 QE QE program. Nevertheless, some analysts have warned that the verdict of the German Themis may affect the expansion of PEPP. In their view, the ECB's ability to increase quantitative incentives may be limited in light of the above court decision. Although in my opinion, this is unlikely, given the previous rhetoric of Lagarde on this issue. In addition, not so long ago, Isabele Schnabel, who represents Germany on the ECB's executive board, said in an interview with the Financial Times that the European regulator "will ignore this court decision" and that the German Central Bank will deal with this problem.

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Thus, there are three main scenarios for the June meeting of the European Central Bank. According to the first scenario, Lagarde will declare a wait-and-see attitude by announcing the consideration of the expansion of the program at the July meeting. In this case, the European currency will collapse throughout the market. The second option is to increase the program by 250 billion euros. The regulator will thus support the eurozone economy, but at the same time make it clear that it is not in a hurry with actions, given the widespread weakening of quarantine in the EU countries. A restrained, and possibly short-term (but positive) reaction of the euro is expected here. Well, the third option is to increase the volume of the PEPP program by 500 billion euros. Thus, the repurchase volume for this year under all programs will be brought up to 1 trillion 600 billion euros. In this case, the pair will definitely break the resistance level of 1.1270, and, possibly, will test the 13th figure.

All other related factors of tomorrow's meeting (even updating economic forecasts) will play a secondary role. Given such a high degree of uncertainty, it is advisable for the pair to take a wait-and-see attitude, at least until the end of the final press conference, Christine Lagarde.

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Stock markets in America, Europe and Asia on the same positive wave

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The stock markets of the United States of America were able to find a foothold and, following the results of past trading, closed mostly in positive territory. Investors have ceased to win back the news about the unrest in the country, as well as about the possible repetition of the scenario with coronavirus. For them, mitigating measures that support the growth of the economy affected by the COVID-19 pandemic came to the fore. In addition, statistics also add to the positive, reflecting a more rapid than previously expected exit from the crisis.

The main support for the three major stock indices was provided by the technical sector. However, the industrial and financial sectors were also on top.

Securities of the technical sector are becoming more expensive, thereby pushing the index up, despite the fact that there are quite serious external factors for the negative, which include, for example, protest demonstrations in the United States.

Recall that at the very beginning of the week, the US President DOnald Trump spoke out that unauthorized demonstrations that arose against the backdrop of the death of African American George Floyd will be severely dispersed by the authorities, up to the use of military forces. If the words of the head of state do not go wrong, investors will be forced to turn their attention to this fact, which in turn can lead to lower stock indices.

To avoid looting, shops in the United States will be closed, and a possible curfew will result in people being unable to get to outlets. This will be a repetition of the situation that developed during the global pandemic. It is difficult to say about the scale of what is happening.

The Dow Jones index was higher at the end of the trading session by 1.05% and reached the level of 25,742.65 points. The S&P 500 index increased by 0.82% and was at the level of 3,080.82 points. The Nasdaq index recorded a less positive dynamic, which rose by 0.59% and was at 9 608.375 points.

Stock indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the day by increasing, which allowed them to maintain and slightly improve the results that were recorded following the results of the last session.

Australia's ASX 200 Index gained 0.86%, despite the fact that statistics are poor. As it became known yesterday, the country's GDP showed a decline of 0.3% in the first quarter of this year.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index climbed 1.11%. The South Korean KOSPI index is up 2.25%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is also up 1.18%. Although the tension between Beijing and Washington has not yet passed, it has ceased to exert such significant pressure on investors.

China's Shanghai Composite index rose 0.35%, while the Shenzhen Component recorded a smaller, but still rising 0.29%. Positive here was supported by news about the resumption of the services sector and corresponding growth in it. In addition, the Caixin/Markit services purchasing managers index was at 55 points.

In general, the situation is such that market participants are betting on a systematic and targeted restoration of all processes in the economy and its return to the previous (pre-crisis) level. Hopes are based on the fact that an increasing number of enterprises are starting their activities after long stagnation.

Optimism regarding the acceleration of economic growth so far can not be offset, and besides, statistics provide it with proper support. Meanwhile, the number of patients with coronavirus in the world remains extremely high, and the vaccine from it has not yet passed all the required clinical trials, so it's impossible to say with full confidence that there will be only growth ahead. Experts also try to protect everyone from being overly optimistic, pointing out that there are a lot of problems and enthusiasm should be moderate, especially since the statistics on economic growth in the next quarter will most likely not be as impressive. According to analysts, negative values will prevail over positive statistics.

European stock indexes reflected strong, if not powerful, growth today , the reason for which was the expectation of the introduction of the next portion of incentive measures to boost the eurozone economy.

The German DAX index rose 1.7%, the French CAC 40 index jumped 1.6%, the UK FTSE index increased 1.1%.

The main factors contributing to this significant result were clear signs of economic recovery. First of all, it is worth noting the service sector, which showed the best results compared to the previous period, but so far it has not moved far from its historical low marks.

The unemployment rate in Germany has increased by 5.8%, but the previous rate was at around 6.3%, which indicates a gradual improvement in the situation.

The greatest attention of investors is still focused on the pending decision of the ECB. The regulator can extend soft economic policies and make as a stimulus the purchase of a new portion of bonds. Recall, in total, the repurchase of securities under the previously adopted plan to maintain the economy should be about 750 billion euros, or 830 billion dollars.

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GBP/USD. All hopes are on Johnson: ambitious pound updated four-week high

Dollar pairs continue to take advantage of the weakness of the US currency. The dollar index is slowly but still slipping to the 96th figure amid massive US protests and a slowdown in the US economy. The risk of a second outbreak of coronavirus in the United States and subsequent lockdown causes quite justifiable concern for investors, as a result of which the greenback has become a "persona non grata" in the foreign exchange market.

The pound-dollar pair here was no exception: for the first time since the end of April, GBP/USD tested the area of the 26th figure as part of its upward trek. The pound has risen in price since Friday, and British events related to the exit from the lockdown and the negotiation process between London and Brussels also contribute to this. All of these fundamental factors have allowed buyers to upgrade the four-week high. At the same time, the pound maintains the potential for further growth - the closest resistance level is located at 1.2740 - this is the lower border of the Kumo cloud on the weekly chart. Of course, to achieve this target, the bulls must first gain a foothold in the 26th figure, and judging by the downward pullbacks, this is a rather difficult task. Nevertheless, if the news from the "negotiation front" is positive, the pound will be able to overcome the 150-point distance in a few hours. As you know, the British are very keenly reacting to any more or less significant news regarding the prospects of Brexit.

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Let me remind you that at the end of last week, the pound rose on the news that Boris Johnson will hold personal talks in June with the head of the European Commission and the leaders of key EU countries. General pessimism was again replaced by ghostly hopes: after all, last year it was Johnson who was able to move the long-suffering Brexit issue off the ground, having successfully negotiated with the prime minister of Ireland and further with the EU leadership. This year, the dialogue on a new agreement came to a standstill barely beginning: the parties could not find common ground on any key issue. Then the negotiators were forced to interrupt the negotiation process due to quarantine, resuming it only this week.

However, a pause in the negotiations did not benefit: the parties are still upholding their positions, and London is categorically against prolonging the transition period, even despite the coronavirus crisis. That is why Boris Johnson has such great hopes. According to the Financial Times, the British politicum, including the prime minister's inner circle, convinces Johnson to give the negotiations a "political impetus" so that the parties can find a common denominator by the end of the summer. As noted by an unnamed British senior official, London should not delay the negotiation process even until October, given the consequences of the coronavirus crisis. At the same time, the European Union believes that reaching an agreement before the end of the year will be "very difficult, but possible."

At the moment, it is not known exactly when Boris Johnson will meet with Ursula von der Leyen. According to general expectations, this will happen at the end of this month, probably after the summit of the European Commission (June 19), which will be entirely devoted to the approval of the anti-crisis plan of the European Commission. Most likely, after this summit, Brussels will deal closely with the British issue.

As I said above, traders have hopes that a personal dialogue between Johnson and the EU leadership will help cut the knot in one form or another: either negotiations will move forward, or London will nevertheless agree to extend the transition period, since there is a suitable, "politically reliable" reason for this - the coronavirus crisis. By the way, the mayor of London has already appealed to the British government with a request, asking not to aggravate the already difficult economic situation in the country.

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An additional factor supporting GBP/USD is the weakening of quarantine in Britain. Markets and schools partially opened in the country, competitions in professional sports tournaments resumed, etc. In addition, according to the results of the last day, a little more than one and a half thousand new patients with coronavirus were found in Britain - this is the lowest figure since March 23.

Also, do not forget that the pair is growing due to the weakening dollar, which is under pressure from recent events in the United States. Due to ongoing unrest in the United States, nearly two thousand troops were put on alert near Washington, while Trump is calling for troops to be sent to New York. In large cities across the country, protests continue, in many cases they are accompanied by looting. According to the American press, the death toll has increased to 11, and the number of detainees is estimated in the thousands (according to the latest data - more than 8 thousand). In the US, news about the protests dominates the news about coronavirus - on CNN, MSNBC and Fox News on Sunday May 31, 2.5% of the broadcast was devoted to coronavirus and 25% to protests. However, the market is concerned precisely with the coronavirus - and more precisely, the risk of a re-outbreak. The economic consequences will be disastrous if the United States quarantine again. Such a fundamental background exerts quite strong pressure on the dollar, which is weakening throughout the market.

Thus, the pair retains the potential for its further growth. The nearest price barrier is 1.2600. If the bulls can gain a foothold above this target, we can consider long positions with the first target of 1.2700 and 1.2740 (the lower border of the Kumo cloud on the weekly chart).

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