Trading plan for AUDUSD for June 30, 2020

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Technical outlook:

AUDUSD had managed to rally towards 0.7060 level around June 10, 2020, before reversing sharply. Earlier the pair dropped to 0.6775 level on June 15, 2020. Since then it managed to pull out a counter-trend rally towards 0.6975 level, which is also the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the previous drop as seen here. Immediate resistance is seen toward 0.7060 level, while support is seen at 0.6775 respectively. AUDUSD is expected to drop lower below 0.6775 in the short term. Intraday resistance is seen at 0.6920 and traders might be looking to sell there with risk above 0.7060 level respectively.

Trading plan:

Short now, stop @ 0.7060, target @ below 0.6775.

Good luck!

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Trading plan for Gold for June 30, 2020

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Technical outlook:

Gold had rallied towards $1,780 levels on June 24, 2020; before pulling back. The yellow metal had dropped to $1,747 levels and found support of a short-term trend line passing through. Gold is seen to be trading around $1,769 levels at this point in writing and it need to break below the trend line to turn bearish again. On the flip side, a break above $1,780 would push the metal towards $1,790/95 resistance. Gold has been rallying since last 13 months from $1,262 levels and should be very close to forming a meaningful top. It is better to avoid initiating fresh long positions and get into a bull trap, since upside remains limited towards $1,790/95 levels, going forward. Aggressive traders might want to sell with risk above $1,780 resistance.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders remain short with stop @ 1,780, target is open.

Good luck!

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for June 30, 2020

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Technical outlook:

Bitcoin had rallied through 10400/500 levels earlier, almost taking out initial resistance at 10500 as shown on the daily chart here. Since then the crypto has been drifting sideways and it is seen to be trading around 9160 levels at this point in writing. The recent boundary which is being worked upon is between 3850 and 10500 respectively. Immediate resistance is seen around 10500, while strong support remains around 3850 level respectively. Ideally, Bitcoin should produce a counter trend drop towards 6300 levels, which is very close to Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the previous rally. A bullish reaction could be expected around 6300/6400 levels and Bitcoin could resume its rally towards 13800. It is recommended to open short deals with risk at 10500 level and then turn bullish again at lower levels.

Trading plan:

Remain short, Stop @ 10500, target @ 6300/6400. Then turn bullish again.

Good luck!

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Trading plan for DAX for June 30, 2020

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Technical outlook:

DAX had rallied towards 12920 level around June 09, 2020, before sharply reversing. The index had dropped to 11600 level by June 15, 2020, before resuming its counter-trend rally. The recent boundary which is being worked upon is between 12920 and 11600 respectively. The index is seen to be trading around 12232 level around this point in writing and is expected to break below 11600 interim support. Also note that the counter trend rally had managed to reach 12600 level, which is close to the Fibonacci 0.786 retracement of earlier drop. Resistance is seen to be strong around 12920 levels, while support is around 11600 respectively. Traders would be looking to sell on rallies, with risk around 12920 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain short, stop @ 12920, target @ 10500 in the short term.

Good luck!

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Trading plan for Dow Jones for June 30, 2020

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Technical outlook:

Dow Jones had rallied through 27,586 levels around 09 June, 2020 before reversing lower again. The index is seen to be trading around 25,595 levels at this point in writing and is expected to resume lower. Please note that the Dow Jones had earlier dropped from 27,585 towards 24,843 by June 15, 2020. The counter trend rally since then managed to reach 26,600 levels, which is extremely close to the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of earlier drop. Ideally, the index should remain below 27,585 interim resistance going forward and continue lower below 24,000 mark in the short term. The boundary which is being worked upon is between 27,585 and 24,843 respectively. Traders should be looking to sell on rallies, with risk around 27,585 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain short, stop @ 27,600, target is below 24,000 in the short term.

Good luck!

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for June 30, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the lower channel line around the level of 1.1190 and made a local high at the level of 1.1287 before the Bearish Engulfing pattern had been made. The bearish pressure is still present on chart, so if bulls will not violate the nearest technical resistance located at the level of 1.1282-1.1290, then the swing top located at 1.1419 will not be hit. On the other hand, any violation of the level of 1.1236 makes the rally towards the swing low located at the level of 1.1168 highly possible, so please keep an eye on the current developments at this market. Please notice the overbought market conditions and weak momentum support the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1484

WR2 - 1.1410

WR1 - 1.1289

Weekly Pivot - 1.1235

WS1 - 1.1124

WS2 - 1.1056

WS3 - 1.0936

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 30, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Blockchain-based Russian voting system is reportedly attacked by an election observer node.

As reported by the state news agency TASS, the attack took place on June 27 at around 20:00 CET. A representative of the Moscow government told TASS that the attack did not cause a system crash, which means that all e-voices will be successfully registered in the chain.

According to the official, cyber security experts were working to restore access to the victim node. It is unclear whether it has been repaired.

Electronic voting, which takes place from June 25-30 for residents of Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod, is based on the Blockchain Exonum platform developed by Bitfury.

The constitutional amendments initiated earlier this year, if approved, will theoretically allow Vladimir Putin for a further two six-year terms, which means that he could remain president until 2036.

According to previous reports, the electronic voting website was unavailable for the first few hours after launch.

Furthermore, blockchain-based online voting has resulted in some incorrect results in some regions. For example, nearly 7,300 people assigned to polling stations in the Trojick County have been registered to vote online, even though the station has only 2,358 residents entitled to vote. The local electoral commission claimed it was a "technical failure".

In addition, some people reported that they were able to vote several times because of the apparently poor system compatibility with some offline voting.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $9,129, but it looks like the bulls had lost the battle of the trend line resistance. There is a Doji candlestick pattern made at the top of this move, so if the intraday support located at the level of $8,971 is clearly violated, the odds for another low are high as the momentum is still weak and negative. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $8,565.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,465

WR2 - $10,072

WR1 - $9,509

Weekly Pivot - $9,126

WS1 - $8,593

WS2 - $8,191

WS3 - 7,623

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 30, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The Hong Kong Cryptocurrency Instrument Exchange BitMEX is introducing a new program with benefits for its corporate clients, including improved security support and accounting.

According to the announcement published on the BitMEX support website, the stock exchange is launching a new program for corporate clients called BitMEX Corporate. Accounts on the cryptographic exchange that are not owned and not operated by a natural person can now guarantee that their BitMEX resources are the legal property of the corporation.

BitMEX said the new features were created for customers who need "different ownership structures for their accounts," account access and management, and security requirements. However, the announcement also states that options such as multi-user login and instant transfers between accounts will be available later in 2020.

Although BitMEX remains one of the largest derivative exchanges in the world, many members of the cryptographic community claim that they are losing confidence in it.

According to previous reports, the stock market went offline in March for almost 25 minutes during a crypto blood-bath, many users were not happy about the BitMEX explanation of "a hardware problem with the cloud service provider." In addition, the derivatives giant must face a new lawsuit in which executives are accused of extorting money, laundering money, banking fraud and transferring money without a license.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has retraced 38% of the last wave down and made a new local high at the level of $229. Nevertheless, the is a Doji candlestick pattern made at the top ot the move, which indicates a possible reversal of the local up trend. If the intraday support located at the level of $221.31 is clearly violated, the odds for another low are high as the momentum is still weak and negative. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $209.89.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $273.84

WR2 - $260.74

WR1 - $240.04

Weekly Pivot - $227.40

WS1 - $206.35

WS2 - $194.36

WS3 - $173.30

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 30. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's deals). Inflation alone was not enough.

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday's attempt to break through resistance 1.1280 did not succeed, and good data on inflation in Germany was not enough to maintain the morning bullish momentum, which quickly waned amid the risk of a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how buyers of the European currency tried to cling to the level of 1.1280 several times, but returning to this range in the afternoon generated a signal to sell the euro, which quickly returned the pair to morning support at 1.1236, a little above which trade is now underway. There are some changes that could affect the growth prospects of the European currency in the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 23. An increase in long positions was recorded a week earlier, but the growth of short ones was also noted, which indicates a possible slowdown of the bullish momentum in the short term. Those wishing to buy euros under current conditions and at higher prices are becoming much smaller, and more and more they want to have time to enter the market before the wave of a new fall in EUR/USD. The report shows an increase in short non-commercial positions from 69,988 to 72,368, while long non-commercial positions also slightly rose from 187,120 to 190,816. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position grew again and amounted toreached 118,448, against 117,132, which indicates a slight slowdown in the interest in buying risky assets at current prices. As for the intraday strategy, after yesterday's unsuccessful attempts to raise the euro, it has not changed much. The bulls' task is to protect the level of 1.1236 and forming a false breakout on it will be a signal to open long positions while expecting EUR/USD to grow to a high of 1.1282, where I recommend taking profit. The level of 1.1321 is another target at the middle of the week. If there is no activity at 1.1236 in the morning, and there are a number of reports on inflation in the EU countries and the eurozone as a whole today, it could put pressure on the euro. It is best to postpone long positions until we update the low of 1.1197 and buy from there immediately for a rebound with the aim of a correction of 20-25 points within the day.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The task is still the same for sellers of the European currency. It is necessary to wait until the inflation reports are released, which will most likely lead to consolidation below support 1.1236 and another wave of pressure on the European currency. This will open a direct path to a low of 1.1198, the next test of which will be a bearish signal and strengthen the downward trend with the exit to the levels 1.1170 and 1.1106, where I recommend taking profit. If the bulls continue to push EUR/USD after the publication, it is best not to rush into sales, but wait until the resistance of 1.1282 is updated, or open short positions immediately on the rebound from the high of 1.1321, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates an active confrontation for the further direction of the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1250 will lead to a new upward momentum of the pair. In case the euro falls, the lower border of the indicator will provide support in the region of 1.1215 from which a small upward rebound will form.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-profit traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
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Control zones for OIL on 06/30/20

Oil tested the defining support in the form of WCZ 1/2 37.71-37.32 again yesterday, which led to growth and an absorption pattern to form on the daily level. Purchases from the control zone must be kept until the monthly high is updated, afterwards they can be converted to breakeven or a part can be consolidated.

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Working within the ascending momentum in the medium term makes it possible for you to hold part of the position based on testing the 46.19 level, which is the main goal in the long term.

The option to continue forming the accumulation zone will develop if testing the month's high results in forming an absorption pattern of the daily level and an increase in offers. This will indicate the need to open a short position and close all purchases.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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GBP/USD price movement, June 30, 2020

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On the 4-hour chart, we can see that GBP/USD formed the divergence between the price from the Cable with the Stochastic Oscillator. It means that soon GBP/USD will resume its bullish momentum with the Daily BUY Side Liquidity Pool at 1.2542 as uts target. This scenario is likely to occur if the pair does not drop and close bellow the 1.2251 level

(Disclaimer)

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EUR/USD facing bearish pressure, potential for further drop

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.12888

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 1.11514

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal pullback support, 50% fibonacci retracement, 78.6% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1.13382

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance

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EUR/USD facing bearish pressure, potential for further drop

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.12888

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 1.11514

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal pullback support, 50% fibonacci retracement, 78.6% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1.13382

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD facing bearish pressure, potential for further drop

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.12888

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 1.11514

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal pullback support, 50% fibonacci retracement, 78.6% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1.13382

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance

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Control zones for USD/JPY on 06/30/20

There was a test of two significant resistances at once yesterday. The pair reached the WCZ 1/2 107.90-107.74, which is the determining factor on the growth track, as well as a return to the lower boundary of the weekly average course of early June. This indicates a 100% implementation of the priority ascending model. Further growth will be possible if today's trading closes above the WCZ 1/2. This will open up opportunities for buying the instrument.

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The purpose of the upward movement is the weekly control zone of 109.77-109.43. The range between the zones is 181 points, which will make purchases extremely profitable.

An alternative downward model will develop if an absorption pattern forms from yesterday's growth. The probability of this is below 50%, which makes the model provide support. The growth of the last five days has led to forming a weekly absorption model, which could become the main one for trading in the first half of July.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 30, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro tried to break the technical level of 1.1265 on Monday, due to news of closures of organizations in California as a result of the second wave of the viral epidemic. But in general, the markets were not going to panic, the technical resistance was stable, and the euro showed a daily growth of 23 points. The Marlin oscillator continues to decline in the negative area, the downward trend and the previous target of 1.1108 along the price channel of the weekly scale remain.

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The price returned to the area under the MACD line (blue indicator) on the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator also returned to a downward trend. The first goal of the euro is 1.1195, it is also the signal level for moving to the main goal of 1.1108.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on June 30, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed little volatility yesterday, continuing to consolidate at 0.6900. The technical situation has not changed, the target at 0.6680 for the March 9 high remains.

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The previous day's price did not go beyond the MACD line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is slightly growing, but does not leave the decreasing trend zone. Consolidating the price under the signal level 0.6842 paves the way for the Australian currency to the specified target of 0.6680.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 30, 2020

USD/JPY

The yen enthusiastically reacted to the growth of European and US stock indices on Monday, although it ended lower in Asian markets. The Nikkei 225 lost 2.29% yesterday, but with the S&P 500 up 1.47% today, the Japanese index rose 1.77%. The price reached the first target level of 107.77. The Marlin oscillator has moved into the growing trend zone, the price has the opportunity to develop growth first to 108.10, then afterwards, to the target range of 108.30/40.

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The four-hour chart shows that the price reversal from the MACD line turned out to be very effective. The trend is upward in both charts under review, we are waiting for the price to grow to the first target of 108.10 (May 19 high).

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AUDJPY facing bearish pressure, potential for further drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 74.31

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit :73.87

Reason for Take Profit: 50 fib retracement

Stop Loss:74.66

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high resistance

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USDCAD bounce in progress towards descending trendline resistance!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.36588

Reason for Entry: Moving average support

Take Profit: 1.36970

Reason for Take Profit: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, descending trendline resistance.

Stop Loss: 1.36367

Reason for Stop Loss: -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on June 30. COT report. Boris Johnson pulled down the pound. Decline

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD currency pair, unlike the EUR/US, simply continued its downward movement and worked out the first support level of 1.2250 on Monday. Thus, the bears continue to use any chance in order to continue to get rid of the British currency. The descending channel clearly shows the current trend and as long as the quotes do not get out of it, buyers will remain in the shadows. However, the British currency's next fall is not surprising, given the general fundamental background. However, more on that below, and in this section we can only say that there are several important supports below the pound/dollar pair, which could be difficult for bears to overcome.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels continue to be downward on the 15-minute timeframe, so the overall trend remains downward in the short term. Quotes of the pair are also located below the moving average line, so for the time being we are not even talking about an upward correction in the short term.

COT Report

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The latest COT report, which covers dates June 17-23, shows minimal changes. A group of professional traders were extremely inactive in the indicated period of time and only opened 3,500 new transactions. Of these, 1,200 for purchase and 2,300 for sale. At the same time, the group of hedgers were even less active and closed 343 contracts for the purchase and opened 2,500 contracts for the sale. This is very small. However, this was enough for the pound to resume its decline. This happened after June 23, a time period that is not covered by the latest COT report. Thus, no conclusions can be drawn from the latest report. The mood of traders has not changed, and the total number of open positions opened by a group of professional traders remains with an advantage in short positions. Despite the rather low activity of professional traders, the British currency will have a tendency to decline further.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair was negative again on Tuesday. The head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey is set to give a speech on this day. However, traders were not interested in his speech. On the same day, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a speech, saying the following: "This (coronavirus crisis) was a disaster. Let's not downplay our words, I mean, it was an absolute nightmare for the country, and the country experienced a deep shock." After these words, the British pound resumed its decline, as traders quite reasonably interpreted Johnson's words in a negative context. Obviously, the British economy, which had problems even before the coronavirus crisis due to Brexit, experienced a real shock thanks to the pandemic and quarantine. Accordingly, recovery can be much more difficult and longer than in Europe or the United States. The UK is set to publish GDP for the first quarter on Wednesday, June 30, which, according to forecasts, could lose only 1.6% in annual terms and 2.0% in quarterly terms. These figures are much smaller than in America or the European Union, however, they are unlikely to support the British currency.

There are two main scenarios as of June 30:

1) Since the support area of 1.2403-1.2423 was passed, the downward movement resumed. The trend remains downward, however, a price rebound from the first target of 1.2250 triggered a round of corrective movement. Thus, traders need to wait for it to end and only after that should they resume selling the pair with goals 1.2168 and 1.2022. Potential Take Profit in this case will be from 130 to 260 points.

2) Buyers need to wait until the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen line and above the downward channel, which will give them a chance to resume moving upward with targets at resistance levels 1.2478 and 1.2624. Potential Take Profit in this case will be from 40 to 190 points.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on June 30. COT report. Buyers made an unsuccessful attempt to break

EURUSD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair was traded in different directions on the hourly timeframe on June 29, while perfectly working out the key lines and levels. The Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines were worked out, from which a rebound followed with the resumption of the downward movement. Thus, the bears dominate the market after formally overcoming the ascending trend line, but at the same time they clearly do not have enough strength for new sales of the pair. Perhaps they will be given an impetus by a rebound from the Senkou Span B line and overcoming the support area of 1.1227-1.1242. In general, the pair has made two important rebounds over the past few days, from the resistance area of 1.1327-1.1342 and the Senkou Span B line. Thus, buyers continue to stay out of the market and can not even play against weak bears on equal terms at this time.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned up on the 15-minute timeframe, signaling an upward trend in the short term. But traders managed to gain a foothold below the moving average line and fall to the lower lines of both channels by the end of Monday, so it is possible to resume the downward movement.

COT Report

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The new COT report, which was released last Friday, as we expected, showed no major changes. The pair has been trading in different directions for the last ten days, and there is no pronounced trend. The trend seems to be downward, but sellers do not have a clear advantage. The most interesting group of professional traders for us, which includes various organizations that enter the foreign exchange market in order to make a profit, only opened 3,000 transactions for the purchase and 2,000 transactions for the sale in the reporting week, which is very small. A group of hedgers were more active, but it did not drive the market. The total number of transactions increased by almost 20,000, short positions had an advantage. However, in general, we can call this report boring and uninformative. The mood of major players remained virtually unchanged over the reporting week. Recent trading days that are not included in the latest COT report do not add any clarity, since the pair continues to trade in different directions.

The general fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair was practically absent on Monday. We do not even analyze the report on inflation in Germany, which, from our point of view, did not matter to traders. In recent months, market participants with pleasure and ease have ignored much more significant data, continuing to trade the pair for their own reasons, which often do not coincide with the fundamental background. Moreover, more and more attention has recently been paid to the epidemic rather than to economic factors. Experts seriously fear that the whole world will be overwhelmed by a new wave of pandemics, which will have to introduce a new total quarantine. And even if the quarantine is not as strict as the first one, there will still be certain restrictions that will at best slow down the recovery of the economy, and at worst contribute to its new decline. First of all, this now concerns the United States, where the lockdown did not bring any results. Isolated by someone or something, Anthony Fauci finally went on the air, saying only that the current numbers of infected people in the United States are frightening. However, few people listened to Fauci when the virus was just beginning to take over America. Now, it is unlikely that the White House will go to a new total quarantine because of fears that China will take away the world's leadership and strengthen its influence on other countries, while the United States is mired in a crisis and epidemic. Well, don't forget about the presidential election. A new lockdown, a new fall in the economy can finish off Donald Trump's chances of re-election.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 30:

1) The bears seemed to have overcome the upward trend line, but failed to extract anything for themselves from this signal. Thus, sales orders with the support levels of 1.1141 and 1.1065 remain relevant until the quotes remain below two key lines, Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen. However, it is worth remembering that now there is a high probability of a flat. Potential Take Profit range from 80 to 150 points.

2) Buyers can still return to the market, but have too many barriers to form new upward trend. Therefore, we advise you to wait until the 1.1327-1.1342 area has been overcome before buying the EUR/USD pair with a target at the resistance level of 1.1425. Potential Take Profit in this case is about 75 points.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 30. The "swing" continues. Coronavirus is back in focus. Markets fear not a second wave

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -63.5571

Well, if a few days ago we doubted that the euro/dollar pair could go into a sideways movement since there were a sufficient number of technical factors that speak in favor of the beginning of a new downward trend, now we can say with confidence that the euro/dollar quotes are trading in a side channel. During the past day, the pair again failed to continue the downward movement, so a new upward turn was made and a new round of upward movement was started with a new overcoming of the moving average line, which ended very quickly. At the same time, the prospects for the European currency remain very vague, since no positive news is coming from Europe right now. However, the situation in America now can not be interpreted as "positive". The fact is that in recent weeks, the problem of the "coronavirus epidemic" has again become acute across the ocean. At least, this is what most analysts and representatives of the healthcare sector believe. However, we believe that the first wave was not completed in the United States either. Just in contrast to the more conscious countries that were not in a hurry to remove quarantine measures, and more far-sighted rulers who think not only about the upcoming elections and political ratings, there was no decline in the growth rate of the virus in America. This is why the United States remains in first place in the world in terms of the number of diseases. This is not about the number of tests performed or the size of the country's population. And the country probably does not need to say what the repeated "lockdown" threatens.

On the first trading day of the week, there were no important reports or events in Europe or the United States. In Germany, the consumer price index for June was published, which was better than the forecast values and amounted to 0.9% y/y. However, this is not surprising, since the European economy has begun to recover, and Europe has managed to stop the spread of infection with the help of strict quarantine measures. Even in the most infected countries, such as Italy and Spain, the daily increase in new cases is minimal. Therefore, it is the European economy that can now fully embark on the path of recovery, although Christine Lagarde expects it to shrink by almost 9% by the end of 2020, while in America they expect a fall of 5-6%. However, its future will still depend on the results of the fight against "coronavirus" infection. If the second wave of the disease begins in Europe, then the growth of the European GDP will be slowed down.

At the same time, after a long break, the chief epidemiologist of the United States Anthony Fauci went on the air, who said that the situation with the"coronavirus" in the United States is beginning to become very serious. Anti-records for the number of new cases are updated daily in the United States. However, many health officials believe that the actual number of infected people in the United States is much higher than the official number. In general, all this situation does not add optimism to buyers of the US currency. So far, the dollar is not under pronounced pressure, but in the future, if COVID-2019 continues to spread across the US at the same pace, it will affect the US economy. Accordingly, the country's macroeconomic indicators may continue to decline instead of recovering.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump just can't live a day without a scandal. On June 28, Donald Trump posted a video of one of his supporters on his Twitter page, which clearly shows a white man shouting the phrase "White Power" several times. The fact that the American President deliberately retweeted this video to his page means that he approves of what is happening in the video. Naturally, a new racist scandal immediately unfolded on the network, and the video was deleted a few hours later. The White House immediately made it clear that Donald Trump did not notice any racist chants and does not support them. However, most Americans who do not encourage Trump's policies immediately concluded that the president has racist tendencies. To be honest, we continue to believe that Trump is doing everything possible not to be re-elected in November 2020...

On the second trading day of the week, the European Union is scheduled to publish the consumer price index for June in a preliminary value. It is expected that the main indicator in annual terms will be 0.1%, while the base indicator (excluding food and energy prices) may be 0.8% y/y, continuing to slow down. However, much more important and significant events are planned for the second half of the day, when the US will host speeches by the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Naturally, it is not known what the two main financiers of the country will say, but these are potentially two very important speeches. We continue to hold our opinion that in the current conditions, Mnuchin and Powell simply can't tell the markets anything but negative. For sure, both economists will touch on the topic of a new package of financing for the US economy, as well as the topic of "coronavirus", which can lead to a new downturn in the economy. If their speech is overly "dovish", the US dollar may continue its decline, which began at the beginning of the new trading week. Also scheduled for the US trading session is a speech by ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos, who, in turn, can share prospects and forecasts related to the European economy.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of June 30 is 76 points and is characterized as "average", but in general, the volatility continues to decrease. We expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1153 and 1.1305. A new turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will signal a new round of upward movement, possibly within the side channel.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1353

R2 – 1.1475

R3 – 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair managed to change the direction of a movement twice over the past day and finally settled again below the moving average line. Thus, at this time, short positions with the goals of 1.1153 and 1.1108 are relevant, which it is recommended to keep open until the MACD indicator turns up. At the same time, there is a probability of a price rebound from the level of 1.1170 – the previous local minimum. It is recommended to return to buying the pair not before fixing the price above the moving average with the goals of 1.1305 and 1.1353, but these goals are very close, and the probability of a flat is high.

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Analysis and forecast for USD/JPY on June 29, 2020

Hello!

At last week's trading, the dollar/yen currency pair showed growth, strengthening by 0.32%. It is worth noting that the situation in the world has not improved. Several countries have seen a surge in the second wave of COVID-19, including the United States itself. Also, mass riots related to the murder of a black American, George Floyd, have not subsided in the United States. Investors are also concerned about the tension in US trade relations with China and the European Union. Nevertheless, at last week's trading, market participants gave their preference to the US dollar, rather than the Japanese yen. In my opinion, the main significance here was technical factors. Let's figure it out.

Weekly

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At the trading on June 22-26, the bears intended to continue the pressure on the quote, however, the landmark and strong level of 106.00 was not up to them. It was near this significant mark that the pair found strong support and began to actively recover.

The current trading started with a swing and is still going without a certain direction. It is understandable - at the beginning of the week, all the most important events are still ahead. Among a large number of macroeconomic statistics, it is immediately worth highlighting data on the US labor market, which will be published this Friday, at 13:30 (London time). I will describe this event in more detail closer to its release date, but for now, we will return to the technical picture and indicate the nearest goals at the top and bottom on the weekly timeframe.

So, if the upward dynamics continue, the USD/JPY bulls will have to once again test the strong resistance zone of 107.45-107.65 for a breakdown, where the maximum values of the last two weeks were shown. A break of 107.65 will open the way to a strong technical area of 107.92-108.11, where the lower border of the Ichimoku indicator cloud, the Tenkan line, and the 50 simple moving average passes. Do not forget about the important level of 108.00, which has repeatedly had a significant impact on the course of trading. Thus, we can assume that the closing of the current weekly trading above 108.11 will indicate the superiority of the bulls over their opponents and the subsequent growth, the goals of which will be: 108.44 (upper limit of the cloud), 108.86 (89 EMA) and 109.25, where a strong 144 exponential moving average passes. Only the breakdown of the 144 EMA will make it possible to retest the sellers' resistance at 109.85 and the most important psychological and technical mark of 110 yen per dollar.

To implement a bearish scenario for this currency pair, a true breakout of the level of 106.00 and the closing of weekly trading under this mark is necessary. If the downside players manage to complete this task, the road will open to another important mark of 105.00. Judging by the last weekly candle, with a fairly long lower shadow, I am more inclined to expect growth from USD/JPY.

Daily

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In the daily timeframe, there is an extremely interesting picture, which indicates the uncertainty of market participants regarding the further price movement of this instrument. In particular, this is indicated by the last two daily candles with long shadows and insignificant bullish bodies. This is especially true for the Friday candle for June 26.

Now about the role of the 50 simple moving average, which acts as a very strong resistance. As you can see on the chart, the dollar/yen can not go up 50 MA, starting from June 15, that is, almost half a month.

At the moment, the situation for USD/JPY bulls is complicated by the presence of the lower border of the Ichimoku cloud, which passes at 107.23.

In turn, support is represented by the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which runs at 106.77. Only a break of this mark and fixing under it will open the way to a strong support zone of 106.08-106.00.

Trading recommendations for USD/JPY:

As noted above, the last weekly candle showed that the bulls turned the situation around and took control of it. Although it is too early to draw definite conclusions right here and now, I am more inclined to expect the implementation of an upward scenario.

I recommend considering purchases after short-term declines in the area of 107.10-107.00. This week, we will return to this currency pair and, if necessary, make changes to this trading recommendation.

Good luck!

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The Fed's measures to support companies in the US

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In the first half of June, the Federal Reserve bought $ 428 million worth of bonds from individual companies such as Walmart and AT&T, major oil companies such as Philip Morris International Inc and the utility subsidiary of billionaire Warren Buffett of Berkshire.

The goal of the program was to guarantee that companies can continue to finance themselves, leaving the option of closing the business out of the question. The program is supported by the US Department of Treasury, which provided investment capital to cover any losses in the event of corporate default.

The largest purchases of bonds were from AT&T and the UnitedHealth Group, while issuers in the energy sector accounted for about 8.45% of bonds purchased.

These bond purchases, as well as other emergency programs of the Fed will be scrutinized by lawmakers at a hearing on Tuesday. Questions may focus on individual bonds purchased, and on the fact that the support of bond markets used by large firms is currently active and receives support from the Fed in billions.

Meanwhile, the Fed also conducted a survey in Dallas regarding oil production, the result of which revealed that 82% of oil companies stopped production in the second quarter of 2020, while 18% did not.

As for the resumption of production, 36% said they are planning to do it at the end of June, while 20% answered that they will do it at the end of July. 18% answered that they will resume production at the end of August, while 4% plan to do it at the end of September. The remaining 13% said that they will resume production at the end of November or later.

Another important issue is the target price value of oil before companies reopen the closed oil wells. According to the survey, 51% believe that the return of closed wells requires a price of $ 41 per barrel, while 27% said that a price from $ 41 to $ 45 per barrel is needed. 6% answered $ 51 per barrel or higher.

Among the remaining 49%, who believe that a price of $ 40 per barrel or lower is required to resume production, 30% said that from $ 36 to $ 40 per barrel, while another 15% said that from $ 31 to $ 35 per barrel. A clear minority of 4% noted $ 30 or less.

The most gloomy and sad result of the survey was the attitude of E & P leaders to drilling. When asked "When do you expect US drilling and pumping to return to levels up to COVID-19?", 44% said that somewhere between the fourth quarter of 2020 and the fourth quarter of 2021. In particular, a bold 3% said that in the fourth quarter of 2020, while only 8% responded with the first quarter of 2021. Another 14% answered the second quarter of 2021, while 13% said they were in the third quarter of 2021. 6% responded "in the fourth quarter of 2021".

Of the remaining solid majority of 55%, 39% said "no earlier than 2021," and an incredibly pessimistic 16% said "never."

When asked why they stopped production altogether, 94% said that prices were too low, while another 4% said that this was because refineries or pipelines had abandoned oil production. The remaining 1% explained that storage capacity is not available.

When asked if they expect their firms to remain solvent next year, 95% of managers answered yes, while 5% answered no.

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Latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly prospects for EUR/USD

The latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly prospects for EUR/USD

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The situation has slightly stabilized. The latest COT report (Commitments of Traders) showed an increase in open interest in the euro again (585,421 against 574,939). After fixing a certain part of the profit and some thought, global players make plans again and increase their positions. In the statistics of the general report, an unbalance increase in short positions by the Commercials group is noteworthy. Players who have information about the real state of Affairs in the economy, actively increased bearish positions almost four times more. The trend in the preferences of this group of players has not changed for a long time, despite some different behaviors. For hedgers in the euro, priority and dominance of bearish interests remain. Therefore, in the long-term, COT reports allow us to draw conclusions about long-term plans, revision and change of the trend on such timeframes as a week and a month is not expected yet. In the financial report, the key indicator of the distribution of forces of the largest dealers (Dealer intermediate) retains the preponderance of forces in favor of long positions in the Euro, but it is no longer a peak value and has begun to change its structure since the last time. These circumstances constrain confidence in the percentage of positions (58.9 - 4.7) and require additional confirmation.

Main conclusion

The activity and effectiveness of the players to increase, which allowed them to achieve good results in the daily half-time to outline the opportunities for the weekly and perform the upward correction on the monthly time interval, has been stopped. Its further prospects are either unclear or not yet available.

Technical picture

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The indicated conclusions find some consonance in the technical analysis of the situation. The downward corrections of the daily and weekly timeframes did not receive development last week and take the form of consolidation. This week, we are closing the month. The next COT report will just contain information on the final conclusions and decisions for the month of June. In June, the EUR/USD pair tested the monthly medium-term trend (1.1360), as a result, the shape of the monthly candle will be important, especially significant in this case - the size of the upper shadow.

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In the meantime, the pair at the lower time interval is fighting for the key H1 boundaries, which are joining forces at 1.1217-54 (central Pivot-level of the day + weekly long-term trend) today. The analyzed technical indicators are ready to support further strengthening of the bullish positions, but the main advantage of forces on H1 is still maintained on the side of the players to decline. On the other hand, the resistance within the day can be noted 1.1261 and 1.1283, while support for the classic Pivot levels are located today at 1.1217 - 1.1195 - 1.1173 - 1.1151.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)

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Instaforex Daily Analysis - 29th June 2020

Today we take a look at NZDUSD and see how we are going to play the bounce!

We use Fibonacci retracements, extensions, support/resistance, momentum and trend lines to identify trading opportunities in this exciting pair today!

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 29, 2020

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair was trading around the area of 1.2345 a week ago. Today, the level of 1.2396 represents a weekly pivot point in the H1 time frame.

The pair has already formed minor resistance at 1.2396 and the strong resistance is seen at the level of 1.2478 because it represents the weekly resistance 1.

So, major resistance is seen at 1.2478, while immediate support is found at 1.2314. If the pair closes below the weekly pivot point of 1.2396, the GBP/USD pair may resume it movement to 1.2478 to test the weekly support 1.

From this point, we expect the GBP/USD pair to move between the levels of 1.2314 and 1.2478.

Equally important, the RSI is still calling for a strong bearish market as well as the current price is also below the moving average 100. As a result, sell below the weekly pivot point of 1.2396 with targets at 1.2314 in order to form a double bottom.

Major support sets at the level of 1.2250. For that in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario as long as the price is above the level of 1.2250.

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EUR/USD: Economic recovery in the US may slow down due to the surge in coronavirus incidence. Further growth of the euro

The recent weak macroeconomic statistics on the US economy lowered the demand for the US dollar. It canceled out all the positions the currency gained last week amid the news of worsening trade relations between the US, China and Europe.

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The only bright report was the data published by the Ifo Institute regarding employment in Germany, which according to their calculations, continued to rise in June due to many companies becoming less pessimistic about the employment situation in the country. The index determined to 92.3 points, much higher than the previous value of 88.3 points in May. Although many companies still conduct lay-offs, the tendency of it is gradually slowing down especially in the service sector. Some are also observed in the trade and manufacturing sectors.

A rather important report on Germany's inflation will be released today, the value of which may set the direction of the euro this week. The data should turn out to be better than the forecasts, since a lower value may become a problem for the central bank of Germany, which will lead to the weakening of the European currency.

Meanwhile in the US, the macroeconomic reports published last Friday turned out to be weak, which disappointed traders, as it became clear that a quick recovery is out of the question. Consumer spending was less than the value predicted by economists, which led to the weakening of the US dollar against risky assets. The recovery of the US economy is clearly not at the level that many expected. According to the data published by the US Department of Commerce, consumer spending in the US rose by 8.2% in May, while economists expected the figure to rise 8.7%. The resumption of activity after a two-month quarantine in connection with the coronavirus pandemic did not become as rapid as predicted, but thanks to stimulating measures by the government, the growth became very impressive.

Household income declined at a slower pace, also thanks to the financial support. Recent data revealed that revenues in May decreased by 4.2%, despite the increasing concerns on the rate of the coronavirus since 33 states in the US observed a huge jump in coronavirus cases last week. A number of companies were forced to close again due to it.

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It is not surprising that with such factors, the Americans' assessment on the US economy worsened again at the end of June. The report of the University of Michigan revealed that in the four weeks that passed, consumer sentiment fell from 78.9 points to 78.1 points. Apparently, another surge in coronavirus infection will put serious pressure on the final index of consumer activity for June this year.

Meanwhile, the current conditions index rose to 87.1 points at the end of June, while the expectations index jumped from 65.9 points to 72.3 points in May.

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As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the upward correction of the European currency may continue at the beginning of this week, if the data on German inflation turns out to be better than economists' forecasts. However, the deterioration of trade relations between China, Europe and the US, as well as the surge in coronavirus infections, may still curb the demand for risky assets. Thus, the bulls need to work on a technical breakout from the resistance level of 1.1280, as such occurrence will open an opportunity to push the quotes up to the highs last week in the area of 1.1345. But if there are no active purchases above the level of 1.1280, the bears will try to form the upper boundary of a new downward channel, which will return the quotes under the support level of 1.1235. It will increase the pressure on the EUR/USD pair and lead the quotes back to the weekly lows in the areas of 1.1200 and 1.1160.

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Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on June 29, 2020

Good day, dear traders!

Last week, the pound/dollar currency pair traded quite volatile and generally justified the forecast of a week ago. Let me remind you that it was recommended to sell the pound/dollar pair after corrective pullbacks to the price zone of 1.2500-1.2525. This pullback took place and even exceeded the expected levels. In the course of trading on June 22-26, the pair rose to 1.2541, then turned to decline, ending the week's trading at 1.2332. This is significantly lower than the important technical and psychological level of 1.2400, which kept the bears' pressure at bay for a long time.

Weekly

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Last week started positively for the pair, and the "Briton" showed strengthening. However, fears of a surge in the second wave of COVID-19 increased, which led to an increase in demand for the US currency. This is despite the fact that in the United States itself, the number of coronavirus infections remains quite high and riots continue, caused by the murder of an African-American George Floyd by police. In general, the situation in the US is far from calm. In addition to mass riots and the demolition of a number of monuments to the founding fathers, President Donald Trump has found time to escalate trade relations not only with China, but also with the European Union. However, this did not prevent the US dollar from strengthening against a number of major competitors, including the British pound.

If we return to the technical picture on the weekly chart, then, despite the candle with a very long upper shadow and the closing price below 1.2400, a small bearish body and the shape of the candle itself, it is not possible to give an unambiguous answer about the further direction of the quote. I'll explain the point. According to its shape, the last candle is a pure-looking "Tombstone" model, however, it can hardly be considered a reversal, because there is nothing to expand, by and large. If such a candle appeared at the end of an upward movement, for example under 1.2800, then it would have an exceptional reversal value and strength. As practice shows, after the appearance of such candles, approximately in the middle of the trading range, it is not uncommon for the subsequent strengthening of the exchange rate to occur.

If the situation for the pound/dollar currency pair develops in this way, the nearest target at the top will be the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which runs at 1.2442. After that, the pair's bulls will need to raise the quote above the important psychological level of 1.2500 and break through the strong resistance of sellers at 1.2541, where the highs of the previous week were recorded. Closing weekly trading above 1.2541 will return bullish sentiment for the pound/dollar pair, and open the way to 1.2600, where the 50 simple moving average passes.

The bearish scenario will continue if the important and strong support zone of 1.2322-1.2311 breaks through, where the minimum values of last week were shown and the Kijun line passes. In this case, the next targets of the bears for the pound will be 1.2300, 1.2246 and 1.2200.

Daily

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On the last trading day of last week, the pound/dollar fell significantly, however, the pair failed to break through the support of 1.2322. The price bounced back from this level and Friday's trading ended at 1.2332.

Today, at the end of this article, the pound/dollar pair shows quite good growth, trading near 1.2370. If the rise continues, its nearest target will be the 50 simple moving average, which runs at 1.2410. Above, the resistance is represented by Friday's highs at 1.2435, and after passing this mark, the pound bulls will have to test the strength of the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which is at a strong technical level of 1.2450. However, in my opinion, the pair will face the most important resistance on the approach to the iconic psychological mark of 1.2500, under which 89 EMA and the Kijun line converged.

To resume the bearish scenario, players on the downside need to break through support in the area of 1.2322-1.2313, and then consolidate under the level of 1.2300. If this can be done, I do not exclude the price entering the limits of the Ichimoku indicator cloud, the upper limit of which is at 1.2280.

Trading recommendations for GBP/USD:

The most likely scenario is that the pair will continue to show a downward trend. This means that the main trading idea for GBP/USD will be considered sales, which I recommend considering after short-term rises in the price zone of 1.2435-1.2475. Above, to open short positions, it is worth looking at the pair's attempts to return above 1.2500. However, we will talk about this in subsequent articles on this tool.

This week, a lot of important macroeconomic data will be published, which will be mentioned on the day of their release. If you want to define today's events, you should pay attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, which will take place at 10:30 London time.

Good trading!

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EUR/USD. June 29. COT report. Neutrality and calmness of major players. Bull traders are starting to buy the euro currency

EUR/USD – 1H.

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Hello, traders! On June 26, the euro/dollar pair started the recovery process after a two-day drop in quotes. Thus, the graphical picture allowed us to build an upward trend line, which again characterizes the current mood of traders as "bullish". At least as long as the quotes do not secure under this line, it is the purchases that will be more attractive. A bit of optimism was presented to traders on Friday by Christine Lagarde. The ECB Chairwoman said that perhaps the worst part of the crisis caused by the coronavirus epidemic is over. However, Lagarde also spoke of a slow and long recovery of the European Union's economy to pre-crisis levels. Thus, her words can be interpreted in different ways. But there was little information on the most important and interesting topics on Friday. Better to say, it wasn't even there at all. In America, rallies and protests continue, Donald Trump continues to prepare for the election and has already begun to travel to the cities of America with speeches to their voters, and the coronavirus in the country continues to spread, as rallies are just "what you need" to spread the infection.

EUR/USD – 4H.

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On the 4 hour chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair on Friday continued the process of falling, but today, Monday, thanks to a new rising trend line on the hourly chart has fulfilled turn in favor of the European currency and began the process of growth towards the corrective level of 76.4% (1,1294). Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator. The rebound of the pair's exchange rate from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a resumption of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1167).

EUR/USD – Daily.

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On the daily chart, the euro/dollar pair again performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and closed under the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1261), which allows traders to expect a fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1147). However, the growing number of cases of coronavirus in the US may stop the growth of the dollar.

EUR/USD – Weekly.

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On the weekly chart, the eurodollar pair rebounded from the lower line of the "narrowing triangle", which still allows traders to expect growth in the direction of the 1.1600 level (the upper line of the triangle"). However, the lower charts are now in a more bearish mood, so working out this goal is being postponed for now.

Overview of fundamentals:

On June 26, the European Union hosted a speech by Christine Lagarde, about which I wrote above, and in America – reports on changes in the volume of personal income and spending of Americans in may were released. However, none of these events is not sufficiently interesting to traders.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

Germany - consumer price index (12:00 GMT).

June 29 news on the European Union and America in the calendar is not listed. Only the German consumer price index will be released, but it is unlikely to interest traders. Thus, we can assume that today the information background will be empty.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

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The latest COT report, released last Friday, showed almost nothing. The "Non-commercial" group, which is the most important group and is considered to be the one that drives the market, has opened a total of only 5,000 contracts, of which 3,000 are long and 2,000 are short. The "Commercial" group (hedgers) were more active and opened almost 11,000 short-contracts, however, as we can see, in the period from June 17 to 23, the euro/dollar pair was trading first down, then up, then down again. In other words, it is impossible to conclude that the mood of traders during this period of time was the same and did not change. And the changes in the balance of forces that the latest COT report showed do not allow us to draw any conclusions for the long term.

Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:

Today, I recommend buying the euro currency with the goal of 1.1294 and 1.1350 (the last peak), since an upward trend line was built, above which the pair is currently trading. I recommend opening new sales of the pair today with the target level of 50.0% (1.1065), if the closing is performed under the trend line on the hourly chart.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.

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