Bitcoin analysis for August 30, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that price was rejected from the upper diagonal of the upward channel, which is a sign that buying looks risky. Kijun sen (support) is on the test and my advice is to watch for breakout of the Kijun sen to confirm potential downward movement. I also found thin cloud in the background, which is a sign that support is weak. Watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $6.528. $6.225 and at the price of $5.850.

Kijun-sen (purple line) - $6.800

Bottom of the cloud - $6.528

Swing low of the channel - $5.850

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of August 30

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, we continue to monitor the upward structure from August 23 and the upward movement is expected after the passage at the price of the noise range of 1.1719 - 1.1746. For the Pound / Dollar pair, we consider the medium-term upward structure of August 15 as the main trend, as well as the local loop from August 24. For the pair Dollar / Franc, the medium-term downward structure develops from August 17, the local downward cycle from August 23. For the pair Dollar / Yen, the continuation of the development of the upward cycle from August 21, we expect after the breakdown of 111.80. For a pair of Euro / Yen, the price issued a small local structure for the top of August 29. For the Pound / Yen pair, the continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 145.71, the movement downward is considered as a correction.

Forecast for August 30:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the EUR / USD currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1817, 1.1794, 1.1746, 1.1719, 1.1660, 1.1630, 1.1582 and 1.1528. Here, we continue to follow the local upward structure of August 23. The short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor of 1.1719 - 1.1746 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 1.1794. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.1817, after which we expect consolidation.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 1.1660-1.1630 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1582 and this level is the support for the top.

The main trend is the local structure of August 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1720 Take profit: 1.1744

Buy 1.1747 Take profit: 1.1792

Sell: 1.1660 Take profit: 1.1632

Sell: 1.1628 Take profit: 1.1585

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3115, 1.3068, 1.3045, 1.3006, 1.2981 and 1.2941. Here, the upward structure of August 24, we considered as a large initial conditions, medium-term from August 15 (scale H4). The continued upward movement is expected after passing through the noise range of 1.3045 - 1.3068. In this case, the target is 1.3115 and from this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 1.3006 - 1.2981 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2941 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is a local structure for the top of August 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3068 Take profit: 1.3113

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 1.3005 Take profit: 1.2982

Sell: 1.2979 Take profit: 1.2941

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.9774, 0.9748, 0.9729, 0.9713, 0.9683, 0.9667 and 0.9643. Here, we continue to follow the local top-down cycle of August 23, the medium-term structure begins on August 17. The short-term downtrend is possible in the range of 0.9683 - 0.9667 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9643, from this level we expect the movement to correction.

The short-term upward movement, possibly in the corridor of 0.9713 - 0.9729 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9748 and the breakdown of which, in turn, will allow to count on the formation of the potential for the top. Here, the target is 0.9774.

The main trend is the local structure for the bottom of August 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9713 Take profit: 0.9726

Buy: 0.9731 Take profit: 0.9748

Sell: 0.9665 Take profit: 0.9645

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Dollar / Yen pair, the key levels on a scale of H1 are: 112.42, 112.13, 111.80, 111.60, 111.01, 110.82 and 110.47. Here, we continue to follow the upward cycle of August 21. The short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor of 111.60 - 111.80 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. In this case, the target is 112.13. We consider the level of 112.42 to be a potential value for the top, after which we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 111.01 - 110.82 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 110.47 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend: the upward structure of August 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.60 Take profit: 111.80

Buy: 111.83 Take profit: 112.12

Sell: 111.00 Take profit: 110.83

Sell: 110.80 Take profit: 110.50

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For the Canadian Dollar / Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3004, 1.2974, 1.2948, 1.2884, 1.2864 and 1.2821. Here, we follow the descending structure of August 24. The continuation of the movement downwards is expected after the passage at the price of the noise range of 1.2884 - 1.2864. In this case, the potential target is 1.2821, from this level we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 1.2948 - 1.2974 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3004 and this level is the key support for the downward structure from August 24.

The main trend is the downward structure of August 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2948 Take profit: 1.2972

Buy: 1.2975 Take profit: 1.3002

Sell: 1.2864 Take profit: 1.2825

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Australian Dollar / Dollar pair, the key H1 scale levels are: 0.7452, 0.7427, 0.7385, 0.7353, 0.7318, 0.7290, 0.7263 and 0.7238. Here, the price is in deep correction from the ascending structure of August 24. The level of 0.7263 is the key support and its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward movement. Here, the first target is 0.7238. The continued development of this structure is expected after the breakdown of 0.7353. In this case, the target is 0.7385 and near this level is the consolidation. The breakdown at the level of 0.7385 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement, the target here is 0.7427. The potential value for the top is the level of 0.7452, upon reaching which we expect a pullback downwards.

The main trend is the formation of the potential for the top of August 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7355 Take profit: 0.7385

Buy: 0.7387 Take profit: 0.7425

Sell: 0.7262 Take profit: 0.7240

Sell: Take profit:

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For the pair of Euro / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 131.84, 131.32, 130.92, 130.39, 130.01, 129.58 and 129.07. Here, the price has issued a small local structure for the top of August 29. The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 130.92 - 131.32 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 131.84, from this level we expect a pullback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 130.39 - 130.01 and the breakdown of the last value will have to develop an in-depth correction from the whole upward movement. Here, the first target is 129.58. We still consider the level of 129.07 to be a potential value for the bottom, after which we expect consolidation in the corridor 129.07 - 128.75.

The main trend is the local upward structure of August 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 130.92 Take profit: 131.30

Buy: 131.35 Take profit: 131.82

Sell: 130.00 Take profit: 129.60

Sell: 129.54 Take profit: 129.10

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For the Pound / Yen pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 147.61, 146.92, 146.35, 145.71, 144.74, 144.31, 143.70 and 143.30. Here, we have specified the corrective objectives for the medium-term upward structure of August 15. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 145.71. Here, the target is 146.35 and the breakdown of which will lead to a short-term upward movement in the range of 146.35 - 146.92. Hence, the probability of a turn downwards is high. The potential value for the top is the level of 147.61, upon reaching which we expect a pullback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 144.74 - 144.31 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 143.70 and the range of 143.70 - 143.30 is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the medium-term ascending structure of August 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 145.71 Take profit: 146.35

Buy: 146.39 Take profit: 146.90

Sell: 144.74 Take profit: 144.35

Sell: 144.26 Take profit: 143.80

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EUR / USD: tomorrow is an important day for the euro

Positive rumors about the prospects of Brexit helped to recover not only the pound. The European currency also became the beneficiary of the situation, halting the decline in a pair with the dollar. But at this point, you should be very careful in choosing the direction of trade.

Firstly, the information noise around Brexit looks too unreliable, although some hopes for a deal before the end of this year still appeared. Secondly, tomorrow, EUR / USD traders will switch to important macroeconomic statistics, where the key role is played by European inflation. Also tomorrow, ECB Vice President Louis Gindons will make a speech, which will comment on the current situation in the economy of the eurozone.

But the focus will, naturally, the dynamics of inflation. According to preliminary forecasts, in July, the consumer price index will rise to 2.1%, that is, to the June level. This is the strongest rate of inflationary growth since February last year. The core inflation index may also show a positive trend, reaching 1.1% (as in June).

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If the indicators come out at the forecast level, the European currency will get an excuse for its growth, as such dynamics speak about certain prospects. First of all, the probability of completion of QE in December this year will remain at an extremely high level. Many traders believe that the issue of minimizing the incentive program is already decided and does not require discussion. However, it is not. Just this week, rumors appeared on the market that the Italian government could apply to the European Central Bank with a request to extend the QE to protect Italy's debt from "probable speculative actions". And although the country's vice-premier denied these intentions, experts do not exclude such a scenario. According to them, with speculative forays, the Italian government will have no other choice but to contact the ECB.

Also, we should not forget about the crisis in Turkey. Lira continues to lose its position versus the dollar, exacerbating the economic situation in the country. The fall of the currency continued after Germany denied the information that appeared that could provide financial assistance to Ankara. After that, the risk of default in the country again increased, reinforcing the flight of capital from the Turkish economy. At the moment, the credit rating of Turkey is lower than that of Greece, while bonds of the country's main banks are traded at a yield of twenty percent per annum. If the Turkish economy collapses, this will undoubtedly affect the European banking sector: according to experts, borrowers from Turkey owe a total of about $ 150 billion to European banks. Among the main creditors are Italian and French financial institutions. Given the sharp devaluation of the lira, the risk of "collapse" of the situation is great enough.

The factors listed above indicate that the option of extending QE can in no case be ruled out. Therefore, in this context, the growth of European inflation plays a big role. If the growth of the CPI does not survive the set pace and will begin to slow down by the end of this year, the probability of an extension of the stimulating program will increase. I'm not talking about raising the ECB rate: according to the majority of representatives of the regulator, this issue will be considered "not before the summer of 2019", provided the inflation is growing steadily. It is obvious that if inflation shows negative dynamics, then the issue of rate increase will be postponed for 2020. However, the determining factors will be not only macroeconomic data - regulator members will assess the consequences of Brexit, the level of political stability in the EU, the state of the Turkish economy, the trade relations between the US and China, the dynamics of the world economic growth and so on. But the growth of European inflation, in this case, plays a key role.

The publication of the consumer price index is not the only important release of Friday. We also learn about the state of the labor market in the European Union. This indicator is a traditional "ally" of the European currency. The unemployment rate in the EU has been gradually (but surely) going down since March 2017, declining from 9.4% to the current 8.3%. According to analysts' forecasts, in July the indicator will decrease by another one-tenth of a percent, that is, up to 8.2%. The data published today on the level of German unemployment (the figure remained at a record low of 5.2%) make it possible to say that the European unemployment tomorrow will also show positive dynamics.

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Thus, the dynamics of the euro-dollar pair in the medium term largely depends on the release of tomorrow's data. If the European inflation confirms the hopes placed on it, then the pair is likely to not only gain a foothold in the 17th figure, but also test the resistance level 1.1760 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). Otherwise, the price will return to the frame of the 16th figure, stuck in a sluggish flute.

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Analysis of Gold for August 20, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,204.50. According to the H4 time – frame, I saw that Gold found the multiply support at the price of $1,200.00. There I found the Kijun-sen, upward trendline and the previous high. The short-term trend is bullish (rising Ichimoku cloud) and my advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential upward target. I got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of $1,223.70. The first upward target is set at the price of $1,213.55 (previous swing high).

Key Support Kijun-sen (purple line) – $1,200.00

Trading recommendations for today : As long the price is holding above the Kijun-sen on the H4 time – frame, watch for buying opportunities.

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The pound rose on Brexit news, euro buyers still have a chance

The European currency managed to restore its position against the US dollar even after the release of a good report on the growth of the US economy in the second quarter of this year.

The British pound also rose more than 1.0% compared to yesterday's opening level for after good news related to Brexit.

The speech of US President Donald Trump in the second half of the North American session was ignored by the market. The good news is that the prospects for US-Canadian trade relations have unexpectedly improved.

The US president said that Canada wants to conclude a trade agreement. And the talks continue, as the negotiators from Canada are in the White House. Trump also said that Canada wants to be part of the new trade agreement without mentioning whether the Canadian authorities are ready to join the trade agreement that was recently concluded with Mexico, or not. It is expected that by the end of this week there will be final results, and work on the revision of the North American Free Trade Agreement will be completed.

During his speech, Trump also mentioned North Korea, saying that the US administration in this direction is all right, but further negotiations are complicated due to disagreements with China.

Data from the National Association of Realtors, released yesterday afternoon, did not affect the rate of the US dollar, even though the number of houses for sale in the US in July were contracted, fell.

According to the report, the index of signed contracts for the sale of housing fell by 0.7% compared to the previous month, to 106.2 points, while economists predicted that sales will remain unchanged. Compared to July 2017, the index fell 2.3%.

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As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, to maintain the upside potential in risky assets, a breakthrough of a large resistance of 1.1710 is required, which will lead to a new wave of growth with a test of highs of 1.1760 and 1.1800.

The British pound rose more than 1.0% yesterday after the EU's chief negotiator for Brexit, Michel Barnier, said the bloc is ready to offer Britain a profitable partnership. As Barnier noted, the conditions proposed by the UK will be individual, which will provide special advantages.

Such a statement could not be ignored by the market, since the main pressure on the pound that we observed recently was due precisely to the problems of concluding a Brexit trade agreement between the UK and the EU. The new agreement allows you to count on a scenario of a softer Brexit.

As for the technical picture of the GBP / USD currency pair, the breakthrough of the large resistance 1.3040, near which the upward trend was suspended yesterday, will lead to a new wave of pound growth with the yield already at the new monthly highs of 1.3080 and 1.3120.

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The deepening of the confrontation between the PRC and the US supports the dollar

The US economy shows strong growth, as evidenced by recent data. But will this extravaganza last against the backdrop of a trade war between the States and China? That's what markets care about.

Published on Wednesday, revised US GDP data for the second quarter showed a strong growth of the US economy to 4.2% vs. 4.1% and a forecast of a slight slowdown to 4.0%. The deflator also maintained its growth rate, 3.2%. Added the price index of personal consumption expenditure to 1.9% from 1.8%. But the negative is the decrease in real consumer spending in the second quarter to 3.8% from 4.0%, although they were expected to drop to 3.9%, and slightly lower the current account balance, to -15.9 billion dollars from -17.5 billion dollars and the forecast -15.2 billion dollars. In addition, corporate profits fell noticeably in the current quarter, reducing growth to 2.4% from 8.7%. It was expected only a small correction to 3.9%.

Of course, as a whole, while the data of economic statistics show strong values, but here we should take into account the fact that the data demonstrate for the time being the consequences of D. Trump's economic policy, which, first of all, includes tax stimulation by increasing to an unprecedented scale of public debt. These figures do not yet reflect the consequences of the trade war, which began only a couple of months ago. But they will certainly be, which, in our opinion, will lead to a decrease in the rate of economic growth in the States and in China.

We do not expect that the achieved agreements on NAFTA with Mexico and Canada fully compensate for losses from the trade war with China, so we are of the opinion that strengthening the confrontation after a while will affect the moods in the elites of these countries and they will seek a compromise, but this will already be in other conditions and under other circumstances. In the meantime, it is possible to say with high probability that the demand for protective assets will "wake up" on any negative news that will generally support the dollar and the Japanese yen, and the overall dynamics of the currency market will be expressed in a protracted period of consolidation.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD / USD currency pair is trading above the 0.7275 level, remaining in the sideways range. A breakthrough at the mark of 0.7310 could lead to its local decrease to 0.7260. We consider it possible to buy it at a decrease with a local target of 0.7345.

The currency pair USD / CAD is trading above 1.2900. It could fall on the backdrop of a positive outcome of the negotiations on an agreement between the US and Canada on free North American trade (NAFTA). We consider it possible to sell the pair at its decline below the level of 1.2900 with the target of 1.2820.

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GBP / USD. 29th of August. Results of the day. Brexit: Negotiations drag on, EU prepares special conditions for Britain

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 113p - 81p - 72p - 70p - 188p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 105p (95p).

The pound sterling grew by almost 200 points after it became known about the "special offer" of the UK Brexit. This message alone was enough for traders to start active purchases of the pound sterling. From our point of view, nothing super-optimistic happened. First, the essence of this "special offer" is unclear. It is unlikely that Brussels simply decided to cede London to key issues. Secondly, there already appeared information that, most likely, the parties will not have time to agree before October on all conditions of Brexit. And this means that the deadline will be postponed to November or December, which only drags out the process of Britain's withdrawal from the EU. Thirdly, Dominic Raab accused the main negotiator from the EU Michel Barnier in delaying the talks. According to Raab, Barnier does not give proper attention and the necessary amount of time to such an important matter. Thus, we believe that yesterday's strengthening of the pound is temporary, and already in the near future, if the "special offer" is not really beneficial for Britain, the US currency may begin to grow again. Of course, there are other factors that affect the pair and which can prevent the strengthening of the dollar. For example, Trump's policy on the national currency. However, while the main attention is focused on Brexit and any positive for the Albion information can provide strong support for the pound. At the same time, we note the preservation of an upward trend in the instrument. Talk about its completion is still early, technical indicators indicate a move up.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair resumed the upward movement and almost fulfilled the level of 1.3043. A rebound of the price from this level or a MACD down turn will signal the beginning of a downward correction with a view to a critical line, which we recommend to work out in small lots.

Orders for purchase can be opened or increased on August 29 in case of overcoming by bulls of the level of 1.3043. In this case, the upward movement may continue with a target resistance level of 1.3117, and the bulls will continue to hold the initiative in their hands.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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Control zones of EUR / USD as of August 30, 2018

The third day of the pair is trading above the monthly short-term fault of August, which indicates a high probability of a corrective downward movement. The probability of return within the limits of a monthly fault is 90%.

The current plan should take into account the finding of a price higher than the monthly short-term, which increases the likelihood of a downward model formation to 90%. The fall may be small, however, purchases from current marks will not be profitable, since the pair is at the highs of the current month. For sales there is not yet a pattern that has been formed, which means that it is necessary to be out of the market until a signal is received to open the deal. The defining support is the NCP 1/2 1.1642-1.1633. While the pair is trading above this zone, it is unprofitable to make sales.

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Work within the local flat is possible, but requires careful decision-making, since finding a price within a monthly short-term fault can be a strong incentive to form a deep corrective model.

An alternative growth option is likely to sell 30%, which does not allow buying from current levels, since the risks will be overstated. Any growth before the end of the month from current marks will lead to a decrease in the short term and a return of the price within the limits of the monthly short-term. Do not forget that next week will expire options contracts, which will increase volatility and will allow the implementation of one of the models in a short time.


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The daily short-term fault is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

The weekly short-term fault is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.

The monthly short-term fault is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Strong US economic growth will help the dollar in the future

The euro fell slightly in the morning after weak data on consumer sentiment in Germany, as well as to reduce consumer spending in France. In general, the situation remains on the side of buyers of risky assets, with the exception of the necessary technical correction down in front of a new wave of growth.

According to the leading data, which were provided today by the research company GfK, in September 2018, the mood of consumers in Germany will worsen. And this is provided that the overall economic expectations of companies have improved.

The leading index of consumer confidence in September will drop to 10.5 points from 10.6 points in August. Economists predicted that in September the index will remain unchanged, at the level of 10.6 points. Despite the slowdown in the dynamics of the index, GfK believes that the economic situation will remain favorable for consumers. The main problem remains the trade conflict between the United States and the uncertainty with energy prices.

In the morning, a report was also published on the growth of consumer spending in France. According to the data, expenditures grew by only 0.1% in July this year after rising by 0.3% in June. Economists had expected a reduction in spending in July compared with June by 0.2%. The main expenditure fell on food and clothing. Expenses for energy carriers in July decreased by 0.2%.

The second estimate of the growth of the US economy was ignored by the market, although it was revised upward.

According to the report of the Ministry of Trade, US GDP growth in the second quarter of 2018 was 4.2% per annum. In the first preliminary estimate, the US economy grew by 4.1% per annum. Economists predicted that the second estimate would be the same.

The report indicates that the revision was facilitated by a higher growth of companies' capital investments. A negative contribution to the valuation was made by consumer spending, which was revised with a slight decrease. Let me remind you that in the first quarter of this year, the US GDP was 2.2% per annum.

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As for the technical correction of EUR / USD, the breakthrough of support 1.1665 may lead to the formation of a downward wave in risky assets, and therefore more acceptable levels for buying are seen in the areas of support 1.1620 and 1.1590. However, counting on the large growth of the euro at the end of this month and the break of the highs around 1.1730 will not be entirely correct. Most likely, the upward movement will continue only in early September, after a slight downward correction.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences as of August 29. Pound sterling is ready to fall

4h

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The GBP / USD pair on the 4-hour chart executed a new U-turn in favor of the US dollar, again without any signal. Thus, today the process of falling quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correctional level of 261.8% - 1.2938. There are no maturing divergences in any indicator. Goals will be determined on the hourly chart.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from March 1, 2018, and April 17, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair after the formation of the bearish divergence in the indicator MACD performed a turn in favor of the US currency and fixing under the correction level of 38.2% - 1,2872. As a result, on August 29, the drop in quotations could be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 23.6% - 1.2791. Brewing divergences are not observed. The closing of the exchange rate over the correction level of 38.2% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the British currency and expect a resumption of growth towards the corrective level of 50.0% to 1.2937.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from July 26, 2018 and August 15, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

New purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out with the target of 1.2937 and a stop loss order under the correction level of 38.2% if a close above the Fibo level is 1,2872 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can now be carried out with the target of 1.2791 and a Stop Loss order above the correction level of 38.2%, as there was a close under the Fibo level of 1.2882.

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Control zones of AUD / USD pair 30.08.18

Today, there is a breakdown of a control zone at 0.7300-0.7294, which is the determining support for the upward movement. The fixation below the zone will mean the continuation of the formation of the medium-term accumulation zone.

The breakdown of a control zone will give an opportunity to search for favorable prices for the sale of the instrument. In case of closing the US session below the level of 0.7294, the target of the fall is the weekly control zone of 0.7238-0.7226. It is important to understand that the current movement takes place within the medium-term accumulation zone, formed in the second half of August. This indicates the need to fix most of the sales on the first significant support. Just below the weekly control zone is the monthly control zone of August, the test of which was already taking place on August 15.

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Working in the medium-term flat suggests that it is possible to find advantageous purchase prices in the event that the lower limit of accumulation was reached. It is important to set a stop, which will be three times less than the potential profit for a long position.

An alternative model will develop if the US session closes above the 0.7300 level. This will allow the continuation of working in the ascending direction, where the target will once again be the weekly control zone of 0.7376-0.7364. It is unprofitable to buy from current marks, as a violation of the ascending structure indicates a high probability of movement towards a monthly minimum.

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The daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

The weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone is formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

The monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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EUR/USD short-term technical levels and trading recommendations for for August 30, 2018

The EUR/USD pair has been trending-up for the past few days. This bullish movement has been demonstrated within the depicted bullish linear regression channels.

Since Tuesday, lack of enough bullish momentum was demonstrated on the chart. The EUR/USD pair failed to maintain enough bullish momentum so that recent movement has turned into sideway consolidations.

For the bearish reversal scenario to be confirmed, bearish breakout below 1.1670-1.1655 (the lower limit of the movement channels) is needed.

This would enhance the short-term bearish scenario for the EUR/USD pair. Intraday bearish target would be located around 1.1600.

On the other hand, bullish persistence above 1.1650 invalidates the bearish scenario for the short-term. Instead, the EUR/USD pair would keep moving within the depicted linear regression channels (1.1750 and 1.1650).

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EUR/USD analysis for August 30, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1696. According to the M30 time – frame, I found the price rejected from the resistance pivot cluster at 1.1708, which is a sign that buying looks very risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1652 and at the price of 1.1630.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1727

R2: 1.1747

R3: 1.1785

Support levels:

S1: 1.1669

S2: 1.1631

S3: 1.1611

Trading recommendations for today: watch for selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 30, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair will continue to rise from the level of 1.1612. The support is found at the level of 1.1612, which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 time frame. The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 1.1612, while immediate resistance is seen at 1.1697. Accordingly, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of a high at 1.1697. So, buy at the level of 1.1697 with the first target at 1.1782 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and move further to 1.1865. Also, the level of 1.1865 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the EUR/USD pair to climb from 1.1697 to 1.1865 today. At the same time, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.1612, a further decline to 1.1500 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 30, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair couldn't break support at the level of 0.6650. The level of 0.6650 coincides with 38.250% of Fibonacci retracement which is expected to act as major support today. Equally important, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward, while the moving average (100) is headed to the upside. Accordingly, the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the EMA 100 is pointing to the uptrend. This suggests that the pair will probably go above the daily pivot point (0.6676) in the coming hours. The NZD/USD pair will demonstrate strength following a breakout of the high at 0.9958. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 0.6676 with the first target at 0.6712. Then, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the 0.6733 mark and further to the 0.6759 levels. The level of 0.6759 will act as strong resistance, because the double top is already set at 0.6759. On the other hand, the daily strong support is seen at 0.6624. If the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the level of 0.6624, the market will decline further to 0.6540.

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EUR/USD short-term technical levels and trading recommendations for for August 30, 2018

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In April, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (lower limit of the consolidation range) allowed quick bearish decline towards 0.6700-0.6800 where narrow ranged consolidation range was established.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 temporarily.

However, lack of bullish momentum made the bulls fail to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6700.

On August 9, bearish breakout below the depicted consolidation range (0.6700-0.6840) was executed. This allowed the recent bearish decline to occur towards 0.6600-0.6570.

The NZD/USD pair outlook turned to be bearish. Bearish targets are projected towards the price levels of 0.6520 and 0.6480.

Recently, early signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the recent low around 0.6550. This allowed the current bullish pullback to be demonstrated.

Conservative traders should wait for bullish pullback towards 0.6750 for a low-risk SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.6850 while T/P levels should be located at 0.6620 and 0.6550.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 30, 2018

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In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range (1.2200).

The price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery towards 1.1830. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1800.

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair tested the price zone of 1.1400-1.1300 where the depicted trend lines were located on the chart.

On August 10, temporary bearish closure below 1.1400 was achieved. This allowed further bearish decline towards 1.1300 where evident bullish recovery was demonstrated.

This week, the current bullish pullback is persisting above 1.1520, the bearish scenario would be hindered for the short-term. Further bullish advancement should be expected towards 1.1750.

Conservative traders should be watching the next price zone (1.1750-1.1850) for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry. Initial Bearish targets would be located at 1.1550 and 1.1420.

On the other hand, For the weekly Head & Shoulders reversal pattern to be confirmed, the EUR/USD pair needs obvious bearish persistence below 1.1400.

Trade Recommendations:

The price zone of 1.1750-1.1850 should be watched for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be located above 1.1880. T/P levels to be located at 1.1550 and 1.1420.

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BITCOIN Analysis for August 30, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with the recent bullish gains which lead the price above $7,000 after breaking above $6,500 with a daily close. The price has recently formed bearish pressure in the process at the edge of the Kumo Cloud resistance which is expected to lead to certain bearish retracement towards the dynamic levels of 20 EMA and Tenkan line from where the price is expected to climb higher again with a target towards $8,000 area. Despite having no fundamentals effecting the Bitcoin gains now, any bearish momentum in the process is considered a cause of exhaustion. As the price remains above $6,000 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 6000, 6500

RESISTANCE: 7500, 8000, 10000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for August 30, 2018

EUR/GBP has been impulsive amid the bearish pressure recently which made the price proceed down below 0.9050 area towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA. EUR has been dominating GBP since the price broke above 0.8850 area with a daily close whereas certain bearish pressure was quite uncommon in the process.

The reason for such impulsive bearish pressure in the pair is that the exhaustion of the EUR buyers after persistently downbeat economic data, published recently. So, German GfK Consumer Climate report was published with a decrease to 10.5 which was expected to be unchanged at 10.6, French Consumer Spending also decreased to 0.1% which was also expected to be unchanged at 0.3%, and French Prelim GDP was published unchanged as expected at 0.2%. Moreover, today German Import Prices report was published with a decrease to -0.2% from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to be at 0.0%.

On the GBP side, today M4 Money Supply report was published with a significant increase to 0.9% from the previous value of -0.3% which was expected to be at 0.2%, Mortgage Approvals remained unchanged at 65k and Net Lending to Individuals decreased to 4.0B from the previous figure of 5.4B which was expected to increase to 5.5B.

Meanwhile, GBP has been quite firm in light of economic reports published today, whereas EUR is still struggling. Though EUR has been the dominating currency in the pair, certain volatility is expected in the pair in the coming days which might lead to certain GBP gains in the process. However, it is expected to be short-lived if the eurozone publishes better-than-expected economic data in the short term.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of dynamic level 20 EMA which has been quite successful holding the price higher for a several times earlier. Recent bearish momentum was quite impulsive which engulfed the previous bullish price actions. Nevertheless, as the price remains above the dynamic level of 20 EMA and 0.8950 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further with a target towards 0.9050 and later towards 0.9250 area in the future.

SUPPORT: 0.8950, 0.8850

RESISTANCE: 0.9050, 0.9250

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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EUR/USD Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal

EUR/USD is approaching its resistance at 1.1749 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 1.1529 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal is expected.

EUR/USD is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 1.1749. Stop loss 1.1857. Take profit at 1.1529.analytics5b87b425bf07a.jpg

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AUD/JPY Testing Resistance, Prepare For Reversal

AUD/JPY is testing its resistance at 81.79 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% & 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where a reversal to its support at 82.57 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) is expected.

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) has reversed off its resistance at 95% where a corresponding drop is expected.

AUD/JPY is testing its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 81.79. Stop loss at 82.57. Take profit at 80.58.

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for August 30, 2018

NZD/USD has been quite impulsive with bearish moves today that is expected to lead to further bearish momentum in the pair. NZD used to be quite firm amid recent economic reports which helped the currency to gain momentum while USD was struggling for gains amid disappointing economic reports.

Today New Zealand's Building Approvals report was published with a decrease to -10.3% from the previous negative value of -8.2% and ANZ Business Confidence report was published with a significant decrease to -50.3 from the previous figure. of -44.9. Due to the worse-than-expected reports, NZD lost momentum impulsively today which may lead to further bearish pressure in the pair.

On the USD side, the Prelim GDP report was published with a better-than-expected reading yesterday with an increase to 4.2% from 4.1% growth in the first estimate which was expected to be at 4.0%. In this context, USD regained momentum and pressure it had over NZD. Today US Core PCE Price Index report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%, Personal Spending is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%, Personal Income is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.4%, and Unemployment Claims is expected to increase to 214k from the previous figure of 210k.

Meanwhile, USD is quite indecisive with the upcoming reports forecasts which is expected to lead to certain correction and volatility in the market, whereas NZD battered by downbeat economic reports is expected to help USD sustain the counter impulsive momentum it had today to continue a delcine in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. After the recent bullish divergence formation in the pair, the price has pushed higher towards the resistance area of 0.6720 from where the price sank lower quite impulsively today. The price has breached below the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well. If the price closes below the dynamic level of 20 EMA amid the bearish pressure today, the price is expected to push lower towards 0.6550 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.6720 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.6550

RESISTANCE: 0.6720

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE and VOLATILE

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Global macro overview for 29/08/2018

The Swedish currency is at levels that were last seen during the global economic crisis. The collapse of value takes place in the face of the upcoming historic government elections, which carry the potential of a radical change of the existing political landscape.

On Wednesday, the SEK slides down the fifth day in a row against the EUR after it has reached the weakest level for more than nine years. The fall was the result of unfavorable data on retail sales at the beginning of the week, increasing this year's losses of the Swedish crown to over 8.0%.

The fall in SEK coincided with the decision of the central bank planned for next week regarding the interest rates. Foreign investors are afraid that Riksbank may postpone plans to start interest rate hikes from record-low negative levels, as it expects clear signals that inflation remains at 2.0%. The central bank is due to announce its next decision on September 6, three days before the election.

The economist's claims, that the prolonged weakness of the SEK results from a combination of factors, including the low rates and the negative impact of trade wars on the Swedish economy, which, unlike many others, relies heavily on exports. Moreover, in addition to the fact that there are Swedish general elections coming that foreign investors perceive as a risky event, one should remember about Italian elections, British Brexit and Donald Trump's actions towards Mexico and China. Surveys show that the nationalist, anti-immigrant party - the Swedish Democrats - is willing to gain much in the parliament, and some polls even suggest that they will win against the ruling social democrats, becoming the largest political group in the country. Convergent policy plans will certainly make it difficult for both large blocs to create a well-functioning government after 9 September.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/SEK technical picture at the daily time frame chart. The price has broken above the swing high at the level of 10/6941 and made a new local high at the level of 10.7259. The larger time frame chart is still up, the momentum remains strong, but the market conditions are now extremly overbought, so a short-term corrective pull-back can occur any time soon. The nearest support is seen at the level of 10.6000.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for August 30, 2018

AUD/JPY has been quite volatile and corrective recently after breaking above 80.50 area with a daily close. Despite downbeat economic reports from Australia today, the currency has not yet weakened enough to give in to JPY.

Today Australia's Private Capital Expenditure report was published with a significant decrease to -2.5% from the previous positive value of 1.2% which was expected to be at 0.6% and Building Approvals also showed a significant decrease to -5.2% from the previous positive value of 6.8% which was expected to be at -2.2%.

On the JPY side, the Japanese currency was struggling to gain momentum recently due to indecisive results from the economic reports, but today Japan's Retail Sales report came in beyond expectations, while decreasing from 1.7% to 1.5% but performing better than 1.3% which lead JPY to gain impulsive momentum over AUD in the process.

Meanwhile, AUD performed worse amid high impact economic reports like Private Capital Expenditure and Building Approvals that is expected to hurt upcoming gains for the currency. On the other hand, JPY is likely to regain momentum until Australia presents positive economic reports to justify its further gains in the pair for the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite impulsive with the bearish pressure which led to certain downward momentum in the volatile and corrective phase of the market. The dynamic level is being breached currently whereas a daily close with such bearish pressure is expected to inject further bearish momentum with a target towards 80.50 and lower in the coming days. On the other hand, a daily close above 82.00 is expected to provide the required momentum for the pair as a counter move against the ongoing bearish trend. As the price remains below 82.00 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 80.50, 78.50

RESISTANCE: 82.00, 85.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 30, 2018

EUR/USD remains in a bullish up trend. Price pulled back towards trend line support at 1.1650-1.1660 and bounced towards recent highs. EUR/USD is showing bearish divergence signs. A new higher high is not to be ruled out.

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Blue line - trend line support

Red line - expectation

EUR/USD could produce a new higher high above 1.1730 but I will be expecting to see a full scale reversal as the bearish divergence signs suggest. I would then expect EUR/USD to fall towards the 1.1550-1.16 area before resuming higher. I'm a seller of EUR/USD from current levels and higher.

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Technical analysis of Gold for August 30, 2018

Gold price did not manage to break above $1,210 yesterday and has pulled back towards the short-term trend line support. Gold could see a new higher high towards $1,220 this week. If Gold however breaks back below $1,200, we could see it pull back towards $1,190-$1,180 area.

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Red line - support trend line

Green rectangle- major support

Short-term support is at $1,200 where are currently. Short-term resistance is at $1,208 and a break above it could push Gold towards $1,220. A break below $1,200 will push Gold towards the green rectangle support area.

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Trading plan for 30/08/2018

Today, finally, a macroeconomic session rich in publications are being prepared. Overnight, the market participants got to know a series of disappointing data from Australia and New Zealand, which led to the fall in the currencies of both countries. It is still a small depreciation compared to the Turkish lyre, which weakened strongly yesterday. The rest of the majors remains relatively stable with a slight advantage of USD. EUR / USD is falling below 1.17, USD / JPY is circling at 111.65, and GBP / USD at 1.3015 defending yesterday's increases. The stock market in Asia is nervous, especially in China, where success in the North American NAFTA negotiations does not translate into a greater hope for the completion of the US-China trade dispute. Shanghai Composite is losing 0.7% today. Japanese Nikkei225 is better, although it grows only 0.1 percent.

Today's Asian session was marked by weak data from Australia and New Zealand. It started at 3:00 AM from the publication of the ANZ consumer confidence index in New Zealand. The result of -50.3 points (previously -49.9 points) led to a drop in the New Zealand dollar, which lost about 40 pips compared to the USD, and the depreciation has not stopped yet.

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Bitcoin analysis for 30/08/2018

The German joint-stock company Deutsche Boerse (DB) continues its cooperation with the HQLAx liquidity provider which is based on Blockchain, investing millions of euros in a minority shareholder.

Deutsche Boerse AG is a German market organizer and provider of transaction services, which since 2015 has had assets of up to EUR 3.695 billion (USD 4.327 billion). Both sides, which initially cooperated in March to create a securities lending platform based on Blockchain technology, using Corda R3 Consortium technology, say that this move allowed them to expand their field operations. "This cooperation gives us the opportunity to develop a solution based on Blockchain to handle transactions after their completion" - commented Philippe Seyll, responsible for global DB loans and adds: "Our goal is to work with like-minded partners, such as HQLAx, to create a standardized securities lending market".

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a new local high at the level of $7,087 and is currently consolidating the gains. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $6,873 and then at the level of $6,782. In a case of a bullish breakout higher, the next target is seen at the level of $7,176.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 30, 2018

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Finally short-term important resistance at 1.7484 gave away. This has opened up the upside for a continuation higher to 1.7820 on the way higher towards the next important target at 1.8369.

The break above resistance at 1.7484 also completes the huge S/H/S bottom that has been building over the last three years. The ideal target for this huge bottom-formation is seen near 2.0000 so there is still a lot of upside to cover here.

R3: 1.7820

R2: 1.7714

R1: 1.7668

Pivot: 1.7484

S1: 1.7435

S2: 1.7398

S3: 1.7371

Trading recommendation:

We remain long EUR from 1.7330 and will move our stop higher to 1.7410.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 30, 2018

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Was the corrective spike to 129.55 it? We do not think that this extremely small correction in regards to the rally from 124.89 to 130.28 even comes near fulfilling the requirements for wave ii/ being complete. So either an expanded flat or a running expanded flat is developing or a much more bullish rally is developing.

We slightly prefer the expanded flat, which calls for a new dip below 129.55 and ideally down to at least the 38.2% corrective target at 128.29. Or in the more rare case a running expanded flat is developing. In this case wave c/ of ii/ is not able to break back below 129.55, but will just take up more time to complete the correction in wave ii/. There is no question that impatient should be considered here, but a running expanded flat is rare and we will look for a regular expanded flat as our first option.

Only a break above 131.15 will shift our preferred count in favor of the much more bullish alternate count.

R3: 131.38

R2: 131.15

R1: 130.85

Pivot: 130.30

S1: 129.89

S2: 129.55

S3: 129.18

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 129.68 with our stop placed at 131.35. Upon a break below support at 130.29 we will move our stop lower to 130.90. We will take profit at 128.50.

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EUR / USD for August 29. Trading system "Regression channels". Traders do not get new signals for dollar purchases

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

Senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The moving average (20; flattened) is up.

–°CI: 79.2546

On August 28, the EUR/USD currency pair perfectly worked Murray's level of "8/8" at 1.1719 and could not overcome in the first attempt. The trade dispute provoked by Trump in recent weeks has come down from the front pages. Against this background, the US dollar continues to depreciate against many currencies, which undoubtedly pleases the US leader. However, it is too early to talk about the end of the trade conflict or at least its weakening. It is still unclear what trade duties will ultimately affect China. Thus, we can count on new information at any time from Washington, which again will force traders to actively buy up the American currency. Trump can again prevent this at least try to stop it. But whether it will be possible to do this from the leader of the States, given the general predisposition of the markets to buy the dollar, it is still difficult to say. In the first place, Trump now has the task of negotiating the best terms with his main trading partners. Thus, we continue to believe that the probability of resuming the growth of the dollar is very high. Determining the moment when the markets will start buying dollars again, it will be quite simple by technical indicators.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.1658

S2 - 1.1597

S3 - 1.1536

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.1719

R2 = 1.1780

R3 = 1.1841

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has started a new round of correction. Thus, today the pair can descend to the moving-average. It is still recommended to consider shorts only below the moving average line, which will be a signal to the transition of the instrument to a new downtrend.

New longs are recommended to open in the event of a turn of the Heiken-Ashi indicator to move upward with the targets of 1,1719 and 1,1780. Above the moving average, the prospects for the uptrend persist despite the purely technical grounds for such growth.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Aug 30, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Italian 10-y Bond Auction, German Unemployment Change, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, German Prelim CPI m/m, and German Import Prices m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too such as Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1766. Strong Resistance:1.1759. Original Resistance: 1.1748. Inner Sell Area: 1.1737. Target Inner Area: 1.1709. Inner Buy Area: 1.1681. Original Support: 1.1670. Strong Support: 1.1659. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1652.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Aug 30, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Retail Sales y/y and the US will release some Economic Data such as Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE PriceIndex m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3: 112.21. Resistance. 2: 111.99. Resistance. 1: 111.77. Support. 1: 111.50. Support. 2: 111.29. Support. 3: 111.07.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold threw "bears" overboard

The fastest intraday gold gain over the past five months, against the backdrop of Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole, forced the market to rack his brains over the question: from what level will the speculators start fixing profit in short positions en masse? Their net shorts by the end of the week by August 21 increased to 90 thousand contracts. Commerzbank notes that over the past few weeks, long positions have remained virtually unchanged, while short positions grew. The speech of the FRS chairman squeezed a part of the "bears" from the market. From what levels will the others run?

From January's highs, gold lost about 11% of its value and speculators continued to actively sell in April-August against the backdrop of the strengthening of the US dollar. The latter took away from the precious metal the function of the asset-refuge and grew rapidly during the escalation period of trade conflicts between the US and other countries. At the same time, the divergence in economic growth and the monetary policy of central banks played into the hands of the "bulls" at the USD index. The Fed raised the federal funds rate, and the US GDP grew by 4.1% in the second quarter. Gold fans found it difficult to counter something to their opponents, which led to the growth of net shorts to record highs.

Dynamics of speculative positions on gold

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It did not receive support from the precious metal from the side of physical demand. Along with the drop in ETF stocks to the lowest level since 2016 and the reduction of Chinese net imports from Hong Kong to 44 tonnes in July, which is the worst monthly indicator since the beginning of the year, bad news came from India. Heavy rains and floods inflicted $ 3 billion damage to local farmers, which is this class of buyers that is most active in the Diwali wedding season.

Since mid-August, the situation began to change. Donald Trump confused the dollar bulls with comments about his dissatisfaction with the activities of Jerome Powell as chairman of the Fed, to which the latter responded with "dovish" rhetoric in Jackson Hole. The head of the Central Bank is confident that inflation will not go far above the 2% target, and therefore it is not necessary to raise the federal funds rate aggressively. After his speech, the dollar fell out of favor, marking the worst weekly dynamics since February. On the contrary, the bulls on XAU/USD came to their senses after the knockdown.

I do not think that the dollar's positions are hopeless. The extent of the trade conflict between the US and China did not declined entirely. The chances of the four monetary restrictions in the FRS this year are still high (74%), the leading indicator from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta signals a 4.6% increase in US GDP for the third quarter. The market turned out to be too emotional for the performances of the White House and the chairman of the Federal Reserve, but gradually calmed down. According to RBC Wealth Management, only a break of $ 1225 ounce will launch an avalanche of mass closure towards speculative short positions.

Technically, the necessary condition for continuing the rally is the ability of the bulls to gain a foothold above the 1209 mark.

Gold daily chart

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of GOLD on simplified wave analysis for the week of August 29

Wave picture of the H4 chart:

The prevailing trend on the gold chart moves the price downwards. The last and incomplete part from April 12 forms a wave of analyzed scale.

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The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

Bear zone from June 14 forms the final part of a larger wave.

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

Since August 16, the bullish wave corrects the last trend area of the higher TF. The price has reached the lower limit of the calculated completion zone.

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Recommended trading strategy:

In the coming days, the gold exchange rate is expected to change. To open trading transactions, it is recommended to track the sell signals of the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 1210.0 / 1220.0

Support zones:

- 1125.0 / 1115.0

Explanations to the figures: In a simplified wave analysis, waves consisting of 3 parts (A-B-C) are used. For analysis, 3 main TFs are used, on each one the last and incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the highest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the wave counting according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure, the dotted - the expected movements.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from your trading systems!

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of the foreign exchange market of August 29, 2013

All throughout the day yesterday, the dollar continued to lose its positions which was largely because of the consumer lending in Europe, whose growth rate accelerated from 2.9% to 3.0%. The data completely coincided with the forecasts, so investors have reason to hope for the growth of consumer activity in the Old World. But in the evening, the dollar managed to win back some of its losses. The growth of the dollar coincided with the placement of five-year bonds, the yield decreased from 2.815% to 2.765%. The growth in demand for medium-term US Treasury bonds may be due to Jerome Powell's slurred position on the rate hike in the refinancing rate next year. Two more increases in the refinancing rate before the end of this year have long been laid in both the dollar price and the US bond yield. However, if the Fed slows the rate of increase in the refinancing rate next year, then it makes no sense to wait for the bond yield growth and investors could make a decision about purchases right now, which led to an increase in demand for debt securities. It is worth noting that preliminary data on commodity stocks in warehouses of wholesale trade showed their growth by 0.7%, which means that stocks have been growing for four months in a row. The constant growth of stocks suggests that the US economy shows signs of a slowdown, and it is because that the Fed can substantially revise its plans to tighten monetary policy.

Today, it is worth paying attention to the latest estimate of US GDP growth for the second quarter. Two previous estimates showed that the US economy accelerated in the second quarter, and the third assessment is expected to show the same. However, the data may be somewhat worse, since the US economy did not grow as fast as expected, and this could have a negative impact on the dollar. Also, data on the number of unfinished transactions for the housing sales can be extremely weak. As of this writing, it is reduced by 2.5% in annual terms. Today's data can show that its number is decreasing by 6.0% in annual terms, as well. This is against the backdrop of the continuing decline in home sales both in the primary market and on the secondary market. Therefore, it is not worth waiting for the growth in housing sales, at least in the short term.

Thus, the single European currency will be able to consolidate at 1.1725.

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The pound will also react to US statistics, and it is worth waiting for the pound to rise to 1.2900 based on its forecasts.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com