Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 14, 2019

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EUR/JPY should test the 61.8% corrective target of red wave i at 121.96 from where red wave iii is expected to take over for a strong impulsive rally towards at least 125.10 and likely even higher than that. A break above minor resistance at 122.48 will confirm red wave ii has completed and red wave iii is developing.

Only an unexpected break below support at 121.29 will invalidate our bullish outlook.

R3: 123.18

R2: 122.83

R1: 122.48

Pivot: 122.39

S1: 121.96

S2: 121.74

S3: 121.29

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 120.75 with our stop placed at 121.75. If our stop is triggered, we will re-buy EUR upon a break above 122.48.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday levels for EUR/USD, June 14, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as French Final CPI m/m. The US will release a batch of macroeconomic reports such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Business Inventories m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Industrial Production m/m,Capacity Utilization Rate, Retail Sales m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So, in this context EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1333

Strong Resistance:1.1327

Original Resistance: 1.1316

Inner Sell Area: 1.1305

Target Inner Area: 1.1279

Inner Buy Area: 1.1253

Original Support: 1.1242

Strong Support: 1.1231

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1225

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday levels for USD/JPY, June 14, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the revised Industrial production m/m. The US will release a series of macroeconomic data such as Prelim UoM inflation expectations, business inventories m/m, Prelim UoM consumer sentiment, industrial production m/m, capacity utilization rate, retail sales m/m, and core retail sales m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance.3 : 108.91

Resistance. 2: 108.70

Resistance. 1: 108.48

Support. 1: 108.22

Support. 2: 108.00

Support. 3: 107.79

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 14. A major decline in the pound might resume

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Euro buyers may have a lot of problems if support for 1.2666 is broken. The main task for the first half of the day will be the formation of a false breakdown in this range, which will allow us to expect a re-growth by the middle of the side channel of 1.2704, as well as an update of the upper limit in the 1.2742 area, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a breakthrough scenario of 1.2666, it is best to buy the pound from a low of 1.2643 or from a larger support of 1.2617.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Pound sellers need to break below the support of 1.2666, which will keep the pressure on the pair and will lead to updating a larger area of 1.264, where I recommend taking profits in the first half of the day. The main weekly goal of sellers will be the 1.2617 area. Under the GBP/USD growth scenario in the first half of the day, it is best to rely on short positions on a false breakdown from a resistance of 1.2704 or on a rebound from a weekly high in the area of 1.2742.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a further decrease in the pound.

Bollinger bands

If the pound grows, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2690 will act as resistance, while the lower limit of the indicator near 1.2666 may provide support.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on 14 June. Euro buyers are in a difficult situation

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

In the course of yesterday, resistance was formed in the area of 1.1284, around which the entire emphasis will now be in the morning. Consolidating at this level will allow euro buyers to rely on a larger upward correction in the area of 1.1310 while maintaining the trend, but much will depend on the data on retail sales in the US, which will be released in the afternoon. In case of a EUR/USD decline scenario, long positions can be seen at a false breakdown at a low of 1.1253, but I recommend that you open long positions immediately to rebound only after the support test of 1.1203.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1284 will be a signal to open short positions in euros, but the main purpose of the bears will be a low of 1.1253, consolidating below which will push EUR/USD to the support area of 1.1220 and 1.1203, where I recommend taking profits. If the demand for the euro returns following a weak report on retail sales in the US, it is best to consider short positions on a rebound from a weekly high around 1.1341.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible fall in EUR/USD

Bollinger bands

In case the euro declines, support will be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1265, while growth will be limited by the resistance of 1.1290.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Control zones for Bitcoin on 06/14/19

Bitcoin continues to trade in the medium-term accumulation zone. Yesterday, the price consolidated above $ 8000, which indicates an increase in the probability of growth to $9000.

Working in the framework of the medium-term flat involves the retention of purchases from the lower limit at $7500. The goal of growth is the maximum of the current year formed a little above $9000. It is important to understand that growth remains a strong medium-term impulse. This allows you to keep purchases open below $7000.

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Working inside the flat provides opportunities for partial fixation of profit at significant weekly resistance levels. Now, the course is above the significant support of $8000 with the next goal possible at $8500.

An alternative model will be developed in the event that the close of trading this week will occur below $8000. This fact will allow considering the next reduction to the support of $7500, which was already tested three times in the current month. At the moment, the probability of the formation of the downward movement is 30%, which makes this model an auxiliary.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones AUDUSD 06/14/19

Yesterday, the pair went beyond the average weekly run. Today, it continues to move near the weekly CZ of 0.6887-0.6874, which makes it possible to consider purchases when forming the "false breakdown" pattern. The probability of returning within the average weekly move is 90%, which makes any sales within the daily course unprofitable.

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The best prices for consolidating a short position start at 0.6887. The likelihood of large demand increases significantly, which requires the complete closure of sales.

The alternative decline option has a probability of 30%, which does not make it profitable to trade at a distance. Just below the weekly short-circuit is the annual low, where the fate of the long-term downward movement will be determined.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones EURUSD 06/14/19

Today, the pair is trading near WCZ 1/2 1.1268-1.1260, which means a possible halt of the fall. Forming a "false break" pattern is required for the purchase. This will provide an opportunity to get a favorable price in case growth resumes. The first goal of the ascending model is the June high, therefore, purchases with a stop no higher than 30 points will provide a favorable risk-earnings ratio.

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It is important to note that the upward movement will remain a medium-term impulse as long as the exchange rate is trading above the level of 1.1260. Otherwise, purchases will have to be abandoned.

An alternative model will be developed if the closure of today's US session happens below 1.1260. This will open the way to pulling down the pair. The goal of the fall will be the weekly CZ of 1.1188-1.1172. It should be borne in mind that in the medium term, the decline may continue to the May low.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Medium term for EUR/AUD pair

EUR / AUD pair

On the weekly scale, the current candle has accelerated growth by rebound from the MACD indicator line, after which it confidently moved above the resistance of the embedded trend line of the price channel at 1.6256. This mark coincides with the top of February 2016 (also the maximum of the year) and the top of September 2015, where an important price resistance has been broken. The Marlin oscillator is growing steadily with a big growth prospect.

On the daily chart, the price is struggling with the resistance of 100% Fibonacci level, which was the maximum levels of September and October last year. The Marlin oscillator line resumed its growth after a short-term false fall into the negative zone. The first target zone is the range of 1.6589-1.6636, determined from the peak of August 2015 to the Fibonacci level of 110.0%. With the overcoming of the range, the second goal opens to 1.7000 with the Fibonacci level of 123.6%.

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Technical analysis of Ethereum for 14/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The Brazilian government will consider a bill that requires all local public administration units to promote new technologies, such as Blockchain. The new law, PL 3443/2019, was submitted by a group of ten federal officials from various political parties and states in the lower chamber of the National Congress of Brazil, the Chamber of Deputies on 11 June.

As specified in the title of the document, the proposed bill provides for "digital delivery of public services in public administration - a digital government". The draft law, if approved, will require federal and state government departments to use new technologies, such as artificial intelligence and Blockchain, to improve public services, the publication says.

The bill was signed by the federal deputy Tiago Mitraud, a member of the classical liberal and libertarian Brazilian political party The New Party (Partido Novo, NOVO), as well as officials from other parties, including the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB), among others.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has reversed after hitting the 61% Fibonacci retracement at the level of $264.31 and tested the technical support at the level of $251.08. Moreover, this move up has been made in three waves only, so it will be considered as a corrective for now. The most important level from the Elliott Wave theory now is the top at $247.79 as any violation of this level will invalidate the impulsive scenario.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $291.72

WR2 - $280.83

WR1 - $249.36

Weekly Pivot Point: $237.71

WS1 - $207.19

WS2 - $196.25

WS3 - $166.76

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the short-term trend, which is still down and the corrective cycle continues. All the local bounces and correction should be treated as another opportunity to open the sell orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is up and there are no signs of any trend reversal, this is only the correction during the up trend.

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Technical analysis of Bitcoin for 14/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Cryptographic winter is likely to end, said CEO of the American Venture Capital company Digital Currency Group (DCG) in a television interview.

Barry Silbert, founder and CEO of DGG, presented the cyclical nature of Bitcoin's ups and downs, which allegedly means that the recent increase in cryptographic prices will continue.

Silbert, known as a serial cryptographic investor, clearly emphasized that the price growth of Bitcoins was a "roller coaster" - its price since 2011 has fallen by 80% fourfold, to later reach another record level. On this basis - in connection with the recent increase in markets after the huge bear market in 2018 - Silbert stated: "It looks like we are coming out of the crypt of winter and we have come into crypto spring".

Executive Director of DGG also pointed to the strong involvement of institutions in the cryptographic industry, claiming that there has been a huge increase since the last bull market in 2017, when Bitcoin reached a record level of $ 20,000. Referring to large institutional cryptographic initiatives, such as Fidelity's upcoming storage offer for Bitcoins, Silbert said that the institutional commitment in 2017 compared to the current interest of the institution is "really night and day".

Earlier this year, Silbert predicted that most digital tokens would lose their value in the long term, arguing that almost every ICO was "just an attempt to raise money, but there was no point in using a base token."

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has tested another technical resistance at the level of $8,306 and then reversed a little towards the local technical support at $8,102. The momentum is still increasing, so there is a chance of the move up continuation. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of $8,520 and $8,800. Due to the form of the up move, it is too early to consider this move as a part of an impulsive cycle, it rather looks so far a corrective cycle in wave 4 extension.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,578

WR2 - $9,128

WR1 - $8,319

Weekly Pivot Point: $7,869

WS1 - $7,020

WS2 - $6,556

WS3 - $5,664

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the short-term trend, which is still down and the corrective cycle continues. All the local bounces and correction should be treated as another opportunity to open the sell orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is up and there are no signs of any trend reversal, this is only the correction during the up trend.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 14/06/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

After two Pin Bar like candlestick formation around the upper consolidation boundary, the GBP/USD pair keeps trading close to the support zone located between the levels of 1.2652 - 1.2668. The momentum is barely holding the neutral fifty level and it looks like is about to go lower as well. The stochastic is in the middle of the range now, so all sum up there is no direct signal regarding the future price move now, but the support zone is tempting to be violated. In this scenario, the next target for bears is seen at level 1.2605.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2954

WR2 - 1.2856

WR1 - 1.2800

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.2708

WS1 - 1.2658

WS2 - 1.2549

WS3 - 1.1502

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is still down. All the local bounces and correction should be treated as another opportunity to open the sell orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is down and there are no signs of any trend reversal.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 14/06/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has made another lower low on its way down at the level of 1.1268. The volatility is very limited as the price moves do not have a decent range, but the momentum is clearly below the neutral level and is pointing down, so the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1250. The key technical support levels are 1.1206, 1.1215 1.1224 and any violation of these levels will open the road towards the lower supports located at 1.1118.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1598

WR2 - 1.1464

WR1 - 1.1422

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.1290

WS1 - 1.1228

WS2 - 1.1091

WS3 - 1.1040

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is now up. All the local pull-backs and corrections should be treated as another opportunity to open the buy orders for a better price. There is a downtrend reversal sign on the weekly time-frame chart, which is why the recent move up might be the beginning of the new uptrend.

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on June 14, 2019

USD / JPY pair

The main achievement for the USD/JPY pair against the background of almost sideways movement was the closing of the gap of the beginning of the week. On the four-hour chart, the price still cannot consolidate below the MACD line but the Marlin oscillator penetrates deeper into the negative area. We continue to adhere to our version with double convergence on a daily scale, after which we are waiting for the growth of the pair in the medium term but this option is hardly the main one. If the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the stock market continues, the yen may turn around from current levels. In this case, the first goal will be the embedded line of the price channel at 109.17. or the development of growth, the price needs to fix above the MACD line (H4) and the signal line of the Marlin oscillator in order to return to the growth zone.

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Forecast for GBP/USD for June 14, 2019

GBP/USD

On Thursday, the British pound closed the day with a symbolic slide. The support of the MACD line on the four-hour chart was quite strong. Marlin oscillator signal lines on both graphs - daily and four-hour, show the neutrality of the current moment, any external fundamental factor can shift the balance in one direction or another. The next such event could be the release of data on industrial production and retail sales in the United States. Industrial production for May is expected to grow by 0.2%, retail sales for May with a forecast of 0.7%. Company inventories for April are expected to rise by 0.4%. We look forward to the pound's decline towards the previously set target of 1.2610 - the low of August 15, 2018. Consolidation below the level will form a condition for further medium-term decline.

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GBP/USD near support, a bounce is possible!

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GBPUSD is near support, a bounce to 1st resistance is possible

Entry: 1.2652

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support

Stop Loss : 1.2559

Why it's good :100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support

Take Profit : 1.2763

Why it's good: 61.8 &100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance

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NZD/USD Broke Major Support, Potential Further Drop!

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EUR/JPY to test support, a bounce is possible!

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EURJPY to test key support, a bounce to 1st resistance is possible

Entry: 122.075

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 121.247

Why it's good :76.4% Fibonacci retracement,horizontal swing low support

Take Profit : 123.093

Why it's good: 38.2% & 76.4% Fibonacci retracement,horizontal swing high resistance

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for June 14

Forecast for June 14:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1435, 1.1416, 1.1384, 1.1363, 1.1333, 1.1286, 1.1259 and 1.1214. Here, the price is in the correction and forms the potential for downward movement of June 12. The continuation of the upward trend is possible after the breakdown of 1.1333. In this case, the first target is 1.1363. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.1363 - 1.1384. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.1416. We consider the level of 1.1435 to be a potential value for the top. Upon reaching this level, we expect a consolidation in the range of 1.1416 - 1.1435, as well as a rollback to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1286 - 1.1259. The breakdown of the latter value will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. Here, the potential target is 1.1214.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of June 5, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1333 Take profit: 1.1363

Buy 1.1386 Take profit: 1.1416

Sell: 1.1284 Take profit: 1.1262

Sell: 1.1257 Take profit: 1.1220

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2808, 1.2789, 1.2754, 1.2727, 1.2687, 1.2667 and 1.2633. Here, we follow the formation of the potential for the bottom of June 7. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 1.2727. In this case, the goal is 1.2754, and near this level is a price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.2755 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 1.2808. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2789 - 1.2808. From here, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2687 - 1.2667. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.2633. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend - the formation of the downward potential of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2728 Take profit: 1.2752

Buy: 1.2755 Take profit: 1.2787

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 1.2664 Take profit: 1.2638

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0059, 1.0033, 0.9995, 0.9965, 0.9930, 0.9908, 0.9884 and 0.9858. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of June 7. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 0.9965. In this case, the target is 0.9995, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9997 will lead to the development of a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.0033. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.0059. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9930 - 0.9908. Hence, a high probability of a reversal to the top. The breakdown of the level of 0.9908 will lead to the development of a protracted correction. Here, the target is 0.9884. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend - the formation of the ascending structure of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9965 Take profit: 0.9995

Buy : 0.9997 Take profit: 1.0033

Sell: 0.9930 Take profit: 0.9910

Sell: 0.9906 Take profit: 0.9886

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.58, 109.37, 109.01, 108.70, 108.08, 107.76 and 107.35. Here, the situation is in equilibrium. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 108.70 - 109.01. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 109.37. Meanwhile, there is a price consolidation in the range of 109.37 - 109.58.

The level of 108.08 is the key support for the ascending structure. Its price passage will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the first target is 107.76. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 107.35.

The main trend: the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.70 Take profit: 109.00

Buy : 109.03 Take profit: 109.37

Sell: 108.08 Take profit: 107.76

Sell: 107.74 Take profit: 107.37

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3451, 1.3424, 1.3370, 1.3350, 1.3304, 1.3277 and 1.3237. Here, we follow the formation of the ascending structure of June 7. The continuation of the development of an upward trend is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3350 - 1.3370. In this case, the goal is 1.3424. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3451. After reaching which, we expect to go into a correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3304 - 1.3277. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the first potential target is 1.3237.

The main trend - the formation of the ascending structure of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3370 Take profit: 1.3424

Buy : 1.3426 Take profit: 1.3450

Sell: 1.3304 Take profit: 1.3280

Sell: 1.3275 Take profit: 1.3240

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For the pair Australian dollar / US dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6974, 0.6964, 0.6944, 0.6933, 0.6912, 0.6897, 0.6875 and 0.6861. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of June 7th. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.6912 - 0.6897. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6875. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6861. After reaching which, we expect a consolidation, as well as rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.6933 - 0.6944. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.6964. The range of 0.6964 - 0.6974 is a key support for the downward structure. Before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6933 Take profit: 0.6944

Buy: 0.6946 Take profit: 0.6964

Sell : 0.6912 Take profit : 0.6898

Sell: 0.6895 Take profit: 0.6875

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 123.15, 122.82, 122.58, 122.38, 122.06, 121.78, 121.39 and 121.14. Here, the price forms the potential for the downward movement of June 11. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range of 122.06 - 121.78. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 121.39. We consider the level of 121.14 as a potential value for the bottom. After reaching which, we expect a consolidation in the range of 121.39 - 121.14, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 122.38 - 122.58. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 122.80. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend - the formation of the potential for the downward movement of 11 June.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 122.40 Take profit: 122.55

Buy: 122.60 Take profit: 122.82

Sell: 122.06 Take profit: 121.80

Sell: 121.76 Take profit: 121.42

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 139.44, 138.98, 138.67, 138.19, 137.82, 137.25, 136.97 and 136.52. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 4. At the moment, the price is close to canceling this structure, for which a passage of 137.25 - 136.97 is necessary. In this case, the first potential target for the bottom is the level of 136.52. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 137.82. Here, the first target is 138.20. Its breakdown should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 138.67. Meanwhile, in the range of 138.67 - 138.98, there is a short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 139.44. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 4, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 137.82 Take profit: 138.16

Buy: 138.22 Take profit: 138.65

Sell: 137.25 Take profit: 137.00

Sell: 136.94 Take profit: 136.55

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD h4 vs USD / JPY h4 vs EUR / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of the movement options from June 14, 2019. Analysis of

Let me bring to your attention a comprehensive analysis of the options for the development of the movement of EUR / USD vs USD / JPY vs EUR / JPY in the Minuette (h4) operational scale from June 14, 2019

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Euro vs US Dollar

The movement of the single European currency EUR / USD comes within the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1295 <-> 1.1270 <-> 1.1250) Minuette operational scale fork. The options for working off of these levels are presented on the animated graphics.

The breakdown of the level of support 1.1250 on the lower boundary of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette will make relevant continuation of the movement of the EUR / USD to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.1235 <-> 1.1200 <-> 1.1170) Minuette operational scale fork.

In the case of the return of the single European currency above the upper boundary (the level of resistance of 1.1310) channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette, can continue the upward movement of EUR / USD to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.1310 <-> 1.1340 <-> 1.1375) Minuette operational scale fork.

The markup of EUR / USD movement options is shown in the animated graphic.

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US Dollar vs Japanese Yen

Just like in the case of EUR / USD, the development movement of the currency pair USD / JPY from June 14, 2019 will be determined by working off the boundary levels of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line (108.70 <-> 108.45 <-> 108.15) Minuette operational scale fork. More details can be found in the graphic shown below.

The breakdown of the upper boundary (the level of resistance 108.70) channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette -> version of the continuation of the upward movement of the currency instrument to balance zone (109.15 <-> 109.50 <-> 109.75) Minuette operational scale fork.

On the other hand, if there is a breakdown of the support level of 108.15 (lower boundary of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette), then the downward movement of USD / JPY can be continued to the targets -> initial SSL line (107.90) of the Minuette operational scale fork <-> LTL Minuette control line (107.60) <-> control line LTL Minuette (107.35) <-> warning line LWL38.2 Minuette (107.00).

Markup options for the USD / JPY movement can be seen at the animated graphic.

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Euro vs Japanese Yen

The development of the movement of cross-instrument EUR / JPY for June 14, 2019 is due to the direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line (122.70 <-> 122.25 <-> 121.75) Minuette operational scale forks.

In case of the breakdown of the level of resistance 122.70 (upper boundary channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette), the upward movement of the cross-instrument will continue to the reference line UTL (123.04) Minuette operating scale fork and boundaries of the equilibrium zone (123.14 <-> 123.90 <-> 124.60) Minuette operating scale fork.

A development of the downward movement of EUR / JPY may continue after the breakdown of the level of support of 121.75 (the lower boundary of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette), and signified it will be sent to the equilibrium zone (121.50 <-> 121.05 <-> 120.65) Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the ultimate Schiff Line Minuette (120.40).

Marking options for the movement of the cross-instrument EUR / JPY is presented in the animated graphic ->

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The review was compiled without taking into account of the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Johnson leads, pound falls

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It's impossible to be one hundred percent certain, but it seems that Boris Johnson will take the lead in the Conservative Party and become the new British prime minister. You can move to a more positive outlook on the long-term prospects of the pound, if the situation starts to develop as it should. In other words, "cold heads" will prevail and controlled and civilized Brexit will occur. There is a lot of space for movement in front of the sterling.

Speaking with a keynote speech today, the ex-British foreign secretary promised that the country would leave the European Union on October 31 with or without a deal. The politician stressed that he would seek a review of the previously agreed deal with the EU. In addition, he intends to begin preparing for the consequences of the "hard" scenario.

The pound went down after such a portion of the negative, its course is reduced for the second day in a row due to heightened fears of an exit without an agreement. Thus, the GBP/USD pair is in the lower part of the trading range of this year. The weekly indicator of price fluctuations has grown the most since the beginning of the month, as traders expect an outcome in the struggle for leadership among Conservatives and the Fed's decision on the rate.

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In the near future, the pound will continue its flight down, since the market considers the exit without agreement as the most risky scenario for the economy of the UK and the country as a whole. This opinion is shared by most global strategists. Some are waiting for the fall of sterling paired with the dollar to the level of 1.10.

"You should stay short in sterling," advise SocGen.

Conservative lawmakers began voting for 10 contenders for their new Tory leader on Thursday at about 10 am in London. Boris Johnson received the greatest support in the first round. The second round is scheduled for June 18, followed by a vote on June 19 and 20, until two candidates remain. Then a postal bulletin with a broader membership in the Conservative Party is scheduled to select a leader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Swiss franc may be the main beneficiary of the new global crisis

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Over the past month, the Swiss currency has risen by almost 2% against the US dollar, surpassing all other peers in the G10 group.

"A downward turn in the global economy and riskier asset markets could lead to a dramatic and accelerated growth of the CHF," said Paul M., currency strategist at JPMorgan Chase.

Now he expects the franc to strengthen to $0.95 (the highest level since March last year) compared with the previous target of $0.98.

According to the analyst, the current account surplus in Switzerland, which is 10% of gross domestic product (which is three times more than Japan), makes the franc more reliable than the yen, a safe haven.

"I admit that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will try to restrain the growth of the franc. However, the regulator did not intervene and did not conduct foreign exchange interventions even during the Italian budget crisis last year, "said P. Meghesi.

"Now the national currency is less controlled by the central bank than during most of the past decade. Entering the next global recession with reserves at the level of 120% probably means that the regulator should be more loyal to the fundamental reasons for the appreciation of the franc caused by fundamental reasons, unlike in the past situation when the central bank met the global financial crisis when foreign exchange reserves were less than 15 % Of GDP. The SNB arsenal may not be completely empty, but there are far fewer bullets than ever before," he added.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. The three main problems of the euro: Italy, the ECB and Brexit

The euro paired with the dollar loses the positions it won in recent days. Buyers of eur/usd could not consolidate within the 13th figure, after which the pair headed towards the main support level of 1.1220 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart, coinciding with the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator). Italy, the ECB and Brexit are the three main problems of the single currency, which almost reminded us of it on the daily. Today, the news background is full of events, but almost all information campaigns are negative for the euro. At the same time, the US currency is gradually recovering: the dollar index today has returned to the 97th figure, reflecting demand for the greenback across the entire market. This time, growth of anti-risk sentiment did not hurt the greenback and dollar bulls were able to take advantage of the situation.

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It is worth noting that, paired with the euro, the dollar can easily dominate, given the vulnerability of the single currency. Today, the Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici reiterated that Brussels is ready to apply the disciplinary procedure against Italy, having fined it because of the growth of public debt. By and large, Moscovici made the "last China warning," but this time he added that Rome has not yet provided any real evidence of compliance with EU fiscal legislation. In turn, the Italian Finance Minister of Italy, Giovanni Tria, asked the Europeans not to rush to retaliatory measures. According to him, Rome will agree with Brussels on all controversial issues by July 9 and will convince the European Union that Italy will comply with the financial and budgetary goals set by the European Commission. According to some experts, such a long delay is related to the inconsistency within the coalition government of Italy.

According to Italian media, the coalition is on the verge of a split: members of the League and the Five Stars movement are increasingly unable to find a common language, provoking political conflicts. Things reached the point that Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte threatened with resignation if the members of the coalition did not start working in tandem. But it's one thing to coordinate issues related to domestic policy, and it's quite another to develop a common position in relations with Brussels. Anti-European slogans, on the wave of which populists came to power in Italy now play against them, being a barrier to compromise solutions. In other words, the Italian problem weighs on the euro, and mutual accusations from Rome and Brussels only increase the pressure on the European currency.

News from Britain also does not bode well for the eur/usd bulls. According to the results of the first round of voting for the future leader of the Conservative Party, Boris Johnson won a crushing victory, as he received 114 points. Current British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt ranked second with a significant margin: he scored only 43 votes. According to the results of the first round of voting, 7 out of 10 candidates received the necessary (minimal) support to continue their participation in the fight. Former head of the House of Commons Andrea Leeds, former Minister of Labor and Pensions Esther McVey and former Secretary of the Treasury Mark Harper dropped out of the race. They didn't get enough votes to go to the next round. The next round of voting will take place next week: then they will go in a similar format until there are only two candidates left. According to most observers, the name of the winner will be known from July 22 to 28.

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However, judging by the starting position of Johnson, one can say that he continues to be the favorite of the political struggle, whereas his closest competitor, Jeremy Hunt, is significantly inferior to him in popularity among party members. By the way, Dominic Raab was previously considered the main rival of Johnson, but now the top three look like this: Johnson, Hunt, Gove. Of these, only the latter defends the position of a long delay: in his opinion, Brexit should be postponed until the end of 2020 in order to re-negotiate with Brussels on the terms of the deal. But Johnson and Raab strongly oppose a delay, while admitting the implementation of a hard Brexit. In other words, the likelihood of a "chaotic" scenario is still high, since Brussels refuses not only to change the terms of the deal, but also to discuss the deal already agreed with the EU. The single currency, as a rule, responds only to key events regarding Brexit prospects. Today's primaries once again reminded traders of the relevance of this problem, and this fact has put significant pressure on eur/usd.

From a technical point of view, the pair is in the area of the support level of 1.1280 (the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart). If the bears push this level, the price will go to the main support level of 1.1220 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart, which coincides with the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com