Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for September 18, 2017

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Technical outlook:

EUR/USD bulls still remain in control but believe it or not, the upside is extremely limited. At this point in time, the pair is consolidating into a probable flat or a triangle before pushing higher one last time. We have to remain a bit patient here as the consolidation structure is unfolding and furthermore a meaningful top is being formed. Let us not speculate on a potential top formation and allow prices to dictate the same. It is good to prepare for short positions but committing then right now would be too risky. A considerable resistance should be seen around 1.2200/50 levels going forward, so please be prepared to sell around those levels. At this point, immediate support is seen around 1.1830 levels, while resistance is just below 1.2092 levels respectively. A break below 1.1800 and subsequently 1.1650 levels would confirm a meaningful top is in place.

Trading plan:

Please remain flat for now and look to sell on a new high above 1.2100 levels.

GBP/USD chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

GBP/USD has rallied above expectations and a strong bull trend persists with no signs of a reversal yet. Believe it or not the pair is firmly within strong resistance zone around 1.3600/1.3700 levels, but a bearish reversal is still not confirmed. Rather than speculating on a top, we shall remain flat for now and wait for the first 5 waves (impulse) at a lower degree. A daily chart has been presented here to have the bigger picture in mind again, and that is indicating a 50% retracement of the drop between 1.5000 through 1.2000 levels respectively. A major bearish reversal shall be confirmed on a break below 1.2800 levels going forward. At this point it is good to remain flat, waiting for yet another potential top and a bearish drop in 5 waves. We shall confirm the same here, watch out for resistance around 1.3650/1.3700 levels.

Trading plan:

Please remain flat for now and look to go short again around 1.3650/1.3700 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for Bank of England Governor Mr Carney's speech today at IMF, at 11:00 AM EST.

Good luck!

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 18, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, If bearish pullback persists below 1.1800 and 1.1700, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 can be watched for a valid BUY entry

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 18, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested earlier in September.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

The current price levels of 0.7320-0.7350 can be watched for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Analysis of Gold for September 18, 2017

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Recently, Gold has downwards. The price tested the level of $1,311.80. According to the 30M time frame, I found a valid breakout of Friday's low at the price of $1,315.50. I found that demand looks very weak and that sellers are in control. MACD oscilator confirmed that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $1,300.30.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,322.25

R2: $1,325.50

R3: $1,327.15

Support levels:

S1: $1,317.35

S2: $1,315.60

S3: $1,312.45

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for September 18, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3618. Anyway, according to the 15M time frame, I found a broken trading range and a fake breakout of Friday's high at the price of 1.3616, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is a hidden bearish divergence on the RSI oscilator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3450 and 1.3385.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3612

R2: 1.3634

R3: 1.3650

Support levels:

S1: 1.3575

S2: 1.3560

S3: 1.3530

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for September 18, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $3,993 driven on the news that the Japanese exchange Coincheck announced they have become a fully licensed exchange in Japan after being approved by the country's Finance Bureau Director. On September 13 the Japanese bitcoin trading platform and payment processor, Coincheck, announced the firm had been approved to be a licensed "virtual currency exchange." The exchange registration approval follows the provisions of Article 63-3 of the country's fund settlement law. The tehnical picture is still in favor of sellers.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found a rising wedge in creation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscilator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. Downward targets are set at the price of $3,354 and $2,965.

Support/Resistance

$4.000 – Cluster resistance (price action)

$3.454 – Pattern objective support (price action)

$2.965 – Support (price action)

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Global macro overview for 18/09/2017

Global macro overview for 18/09/2017:

The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index declines slightly. According to the US goverment agency, the preliminary September University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index reading declined to 95.1 from the previous reading of 96.8 and was below consensus expectations of 95.3. The annual increase was not affected and it is still at the level of 4.5%. The Current Economic Conditions sub-index strengthened from 110.9 to 113.9. This represented a 9.3% increase over the year and the strongest reading since November 2000. On the other hand, in contrast, the Consumer Expectations sub-index reversed August's gain with a decline to 83.4 from 87.7 previously.

The reason behind the decline in confidence might be directly linked to the damage caused by hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The responses from the readers who were not affected by the hurricanes were more robust than from people who suffered property and other assets damage caused by hurricanes. Moreover, survey Director Richard Curtin said: "many people in Houston and Florida couldn't be interviewed, meaning the report may be slightly biased toward the positive". Only 9.0% of respondents reported the storms would hurt the US economy, though Curtin said the disasters may have been on the minds of much more people than that.

The hurricane Irma and Harvey have caused more than $100 billion in damage and sparked a jump in claims for unemployment benefits. As the hurricanes temporarily shuttered refineries in Texas, plenty of respondents expect an increase in the price of the gasoline, which will eventually impact the inflation. Nevertheless, the vast majority of analysts don't expect the disasters to have a long-term effect on the US economy, as reconstruction later in the year should offset their negative impact on third-quarter growth.

Let's now take a look at the SPY (SP500 ETF) technical picture on the H1 time frame. The market gapped up to the new all-time highs at the level of 250.31, but opened with a gap down after the weekend. Currently, the bulls are trying to fill the gap between the levels of 248.66 - 249.91, but the market conditions do not show increasing upward momentum. Any breakout below the level of 248.88 will likely extend the slide towards the other unfilled gap zone between the levels of 246.59 - 247.98.

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Global macro overview for 18/09/2017

Global macro overview for 18/09/2017:

The Fed's blackout period ahead of the FOMC meeting on 20 September has already begun and three of the voting FOMC members (Brainard, Kashkari and Kaplan) took the opportunity last week to express concerns about inflation, as it continues to run below the 2% target projection. It is widely expected, that Fed will announce "quantitative tightening" at the upcoming meeting which means a reduction of the money being currently printed. The possibility of an interest rate hike in December is still relatively high and as long as FOMC members put more weight on the labour market data, not least due to Yellen's strong belief in the Phillips curve. This point of view was recently supported by the NY Fed President William Dudley. Moreover, according to a simple Taylor rule, which links the Fed funds rate to inflation and unemployment, the interest rate should be around 3% now. Market participants do not expect a rate hike in September, so any move like this by Fed would be a great surprise and have a big impact on US Dollar across the board.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market was capped at the golden trend line resistance around the level of 92.54 and currently reversed slightly lower. No new low was made, so the bulls are still ready to become active again as soon as the positive news or data will be released (Fed meeting is this Wednesday). For now, the index might get less violate and continue the sideways movement, but it is worth to keep an eye on the key levels: 92.54 for the upside, 91.02 for the downside.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for September 18, 2017

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3444. Last week, the pair rose from the level of 1.3444 to a top around 1.3610. Also, it should be noted that the trend rebounded from the price of 1.3610 to set at 1.3551. This week, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3610 followed by 1.3732, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3444. According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3444 and 1.3610; so we expect a range of 166 pips at least in coming two days. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 1.3610, we should see the pair climbing towards the new level of 1.3732. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.3444 with the first target at 1.3610 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3732. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.3732 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. On the other hand, we still prefer the bullish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay above the zone of 1.3444 this week.
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Bitcoin analysis for 18/09/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 18/09/2017:

Chiasso in Switzerland accepts taxes in Bitcoins. A small town located in the south of Switzerland on the Italian border will officially begin accepting payments in Bitcoins next year for taxes. The maximum amount you can transfer is 250 Swiss Francs. Town Mayor Bruno Arrigoni stated that Chiasso is recognizable in the world as an epicenter of economic and technological growth in the blockchain technology. The town has been nicknamed "CryptoPolis" and attracts many new companies from the blockchain industry. Over the past few months, eight cryptocurrency related startups and companies have registered their activity there.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture on the H4 time frame. Due to nature of the impulsive rebound from the lows at the level of $3,000, the corrective down cycle might have been terminated sooner than expected, so the current move up is a part of a new cycle. The price is now trading above the weekly pivot at the level of $3,662 but just below the technical resistance at the level of $3,989. If this level is violated, then the test of the recent high at the level of $4,968 is possible in a short time.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 18, 2017

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair fell sharply from the level of 1.1994 towards 1.1837. Now, the price is set at 1.1924. The resistance is seen at the level of 1.1994 and 1.2037. Moreover, the price area of 1.1994/1.2037 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.1964 and 1.1897. If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1994, the market will decline further to 1.1897 as as the first target. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1837 so as to test the double bottom. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.2037, then this scenario may become invalidated.
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Trading plan for 18/09/2017

Trading plan for 18/09/2017:

The first hours of the new week do not bring clear changes to the market. In the currency market, NZD and CAD are the strongest, reflecting a positive outlook for risk. In spite of this, changes to the USD are not high. EUR/USD is stable just under 1.1950. USD/JPY is testing seven-week highs around 111.30 as growth is supported by rising yields of the US 10-year-notes (2.20%). There is no sign of risk aversion on the Asian stock market - Nikkei is up 0.5% and Hang Seng gains 1.1%.

On Monday 18th of September, the event calendar is light in important economic releases, but market participants will keep an eye on Consumer Price Index data from the Eurozone and German Bundesbank Monthly Report. During the US session, Canada will publish Foreign Securities Purchases data and the US will post NAHB Housing Market Index data.

EUR/USD analysis for 18/09/2017:

The Consumer Price Index data from the Eurozone are scheduled for release at 09:00 am GMT and market participants expect no change in inflationary pressures. The CPI is expected to be released at the level of 1.2% and the Core CPI at the level of 1.5%. The lack of the inflationary pressures is adding more to the indication, that the European Central Bank will hardly decide to hike interest rates soon, but it is more likely to first decrease the amount of quantitative easing. The first hint of that decision had hit the newswires late Friday when the Bloomberg agency posted news indicating a possible 15bln Euro target of the asset purchase program in 2018. This would be the first step to normalize the monetary policy by ECB and could send the Euro higher across the board even on the larger time frames.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trying to bounce from the oversold conditions, but the technical resistance at the level of 1.2000 still hasn't been hit. The momentum indicator broke above its fifty level, but now is going down again, which might indicate the bull camp is not strong enough to continue the bounce. Any violation of the gray support zone between the levels of 1.1821 - 1847 will directly expose the level of 1.1775 for a test. Longer-term bias remains bullish, but there are mounting signs of a corrective cycle coming.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY breaks above key resistance

The price of USD/JPY has broken above the key resistance at the level of 111.04 and above the 50%Fibo at the level of 110.90. Currently, the price is trying to hit the 61%Fibo at the level of 111.75, but there are first signs of a building bearish divergence at this time frame, so a reversal might be expected around this level.

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Market Snapshot: Gold at the key trend line support

The price of Gold deteriorated further from the recent swing high at the level of $1,353 and currently is testing the long-term trend line support around the level of $1,315. If the bears manage to break out below this trend line, the next technical support is seen at the level of $1,308.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 18, 2017

The Dollar index as expected completed its bounce at 92.50 area and reversed. Short-term trend remains bearish. I continue to expect the Dollar index to move below 90. The upward bounce was clearly corrective and not a larger trend change.

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Black line - short-term support (broken)

The Dollar index got rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and has also broken below the black trend line support. Short-term support is now found at 91.65. Breaking below that level will confirm our view that we are heading towards 90 and lower. Short-term resistance is at 92.20 at the upper Kumo (cloud) boundary.

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On a daily basis the Dollar index is clearly trapped between the kijun- and tenkan-sen indicators making lower lows and lower highs. Price got rejected at the kijun-sen and now the tenkan-sen is being tested. A break below Friday's lows will open the way for a push towards 90 and lower. I remain short-term bearish as long as we are trading below last week's high.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for September 18, 2017

Gold price remains in a bearish short-term trend. The inability last week to break above the resistance at $1,335 and the rejection, confirmed that we are heading towards our next pull back target of $1,310-$1,280. My longer-term view remains bullish.

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Black line - resistance

Black rectangle - horizontal resistance

Gold price is trading below the 4-hour Kumo. Price got rejected at the horizontal resistance last week. Short-term, resistance is now at $1,324 and next at $1,330-35. Trend is bearish in the short term as long as price is below $1,335. Gold is in a corrective phase.

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Gold is moving slowly and steadily towards the daily kijun-sen as expected. We mentioned when price broke below the daily tenkan-sen (red line indicator) that we should expect a move towards the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) as long as price is below the tenkan-sen. A break below the kijun-sen will open the way for a deeper correction towards cloud support. My longer-term view remains bullish and I continue to see this pullback as a buying opportunity.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 18, 2017

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All our upside targets which we predicted in the previous analysis has been hit. USD/JPY is expecter to advance further and post some new highs. The pair posted a gap up when opening and broke above the 20-period moving average. The rising 50-period moving average suggests that the prices have potential for a further upside. The relative strength index is calling for a new upleg.

To sum up, as long as 110.60 holds on the downside, look for another advance with targets at 111.70 and 112.10 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 110.60 with a target at 110.30.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 110.60, Take Profit: 111.70

Resistance levels: 111.70, 112.10, and 112.55 Support Levels: 110.30, 109.85, 109.05

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 18, 2017

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Our first Target which we predicted in the previous analysis has been hit. USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. Although the pair posted a rebound, the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 0.9625. The declining 50-period moving average is playing a resistance role.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell 0.2% on month in August (vs. +0.1% expected, +0.3% in July). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 95.3 in August from 96.8 in July.

Hence, as long as 0.9625 is not surpassed, look for another decline to 0.9580 and even to 0.9545 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9625, Take Profit: 0.9580

Resistance levels: 0.9645, 0.9680, and 0.9710

Support levels: 0.9605, 0.9580, and 0.9500

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 18, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in previous analysis have been hit. We will retain our upside prediction of GBP/JPY movement. The pair is expected to continue its upside movement and a further advance is expected. The pair is supported by its ascending 20-period and 50-period moving averages acting as support. On the technical side, the relative strength index is in the buying area between 50% and 70% but not overbought.

We suggest long positions above 149.65 with targets at 151.65 and 152.70 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 149.65 with the target at 148.35.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 149.65, Take Profit: 148.35.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 151.65, 152.70, and 153.35

Support levels: 148.35, 146.60, and 146.00

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 18, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook and continue its upside movement. The pair is trading above the rising 50-period moving average, which plays a support role and maintains the upside bias. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

Therefore, as long as 0.7280 is not broken, look for a further rise to 0.7345 and even to 0.7370 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates the bullish position. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7245, 0.7370, and 0.7405

Support levels: 0.7260, 0.7235, and 0.7200

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Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/NZD for September 18, 2017

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Wave summary:

The correction in red wave iv is extending and will likely move closer to the 38.2% corrective target near 1.6194 before completing and tuning higher in red wave v towards at least 1.6727 and possibly even closer to 1.7106 before completing.

R3: 1.6625

R2: 1.6575

R1: 1.6533

Pivot: 1.6340

S1: 1.6269

S2: 1.6237

S3: 1.6194

Trading recommendation:

Our long EUR-position was stopped at 1.6295 for a loss. We will re-buy EUR at 1.6205 with stop placed at 1.6180.

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Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/JPY for September 18, 2017

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Wave summary:

No real change in view here.

We continue to look for more upside towars 134.80 and ideally closer to 137.36 to complete wave D. Short term, we should see minor support at 130.55 continue to protect the downside for the expected rally higher to 134.80.

R3: 134.80

R2: 133.80

R1: 132.80

Pivot: 132.50

S1: 132.24

S2: 131.75

S3: 130.56

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 131.76 with stop placed at 130.50. Upon a break above 133.10 our stop will be move higher to 132.15.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 18, 2017

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German Buba Monthly Report, Final Core CPI y/y, Final CPI y/y, and Italian Trade Balance. The US will release a few economic reports too such as TIC Long-Term Purchases and NAHB Housing Market Index. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1995.

Strong Resistance:1.1988.

Original Resistance: 1.1976.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1964.

Target Inner Area: 1.1936.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1908.

Original Support: 1.1896.

Strong Support: 1.1884.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1877.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sept 18, 2017

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In Asia, today Japan will not release any economic data. However, the US will release some economic news such as TIC Long-Term Purchases and NAHB Housing Market Index. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 111.79.

Resistance. 2: 111.55.

Resistance. 1: 111.34.

Support. 1: 110.07.

Support. 2: 110.85.

Support. 3: 110.63.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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EUR/JPY testing major resistance, start to sell

Price is testing major resistance at 133.19 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect a strong reaction from this level to push price down to at least 131.73 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) once again.

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong resistance at 96% and we expect a strong reaction from this level to correspondingly push price down.

Sell below 133.19. Stop loss at 133.87. Take profit at 131.73.

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AUD/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell

Price touched our buying area and shot up perfectly to our profit target. We prepare to sell below 89.25 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) for a push down to at least 87.91 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support)

RSI (34) sees horizontal resistance at 64% and we expect a reaction off this level to push price down correspondingly.

Sell below 89.25. Stop loss at 89.67. Take profit at 87.91.

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AUD/USD bouncing up perfectly, remain bullish

Price has bounced up perfectly from our previous buying area. We are also seeing price make a bullish exit of our long term descending resistance-turned-support line. The aim is to buy above support at 0.7987 (Fibonacci retracement, pullback support) for a further push up to at least 0.8051 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 4.6% where we expect further bullish action from.

Buy above 0.7987. Stop loss at 0.7951. Take profit at 0.8051.

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EUR/USD testing major resistance, prepare to sell

Price is seeing major resistance below 1.1994 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect a strong reaction from this level to push price down to at least 1.1838 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, Fibonacci retracement).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 95% where stochastic is turning down nicely from.

Sell below 1.1994. Stop loss at 1.2035. Take profit at 1.1838.

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USD/CHF profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy the bounce

Price has dropped perfectly to our profit target as expected. We prepare to buy above major support at 0.9578 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci extension) for a bounce up to at least 0.9675 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong support above 3% where we expect a corresponding bounce from.

Buy above 0.9578. Stop loss at 0.9525. Take profit at 0.9675.

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USD/JPY testing major resistance, remain bearish

Price continues to test our resistance area which is our selling area. We remain bearish below major resistance at 110.90 (Fibonacci retracement, multiple horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect a strong reaction from this level to push price down to 108.52 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 97% and we expect a drop from this level soon, similar to the one we're expecting on price.

Sell below 110.90. Stop loss at 111.84. Take profit at 108.52.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 18, 2017

EUR/USD: There is short-term neutrality on EUR/USD - although the long-term bias on the market is bullish. The short-term neutrality on the market would end as price goes upwards by about 150 pips or goes downwards by about 150 pips from here.

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USD/CHF: This pair is bearish in the long-term and neutral in the short-term. For a directional movement to start, price would either need to go below the supply line at 0.9500 (staying below it); or price would go above the resistance level at 0.9700, causing a bullish signal to be generated. A movement below the support level at 0.9500 would strengthen the overall bearish outlook, while movements between the support line at 0.9500 and the resistance line at 0.9700, would perpetuate the ongoing neutrality in the market.

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GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument has gone upwards seriously, gaining about 680 pips within two weeks (the movement last week was the strongest). There is a huge Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which portends further bullish movement. This week, the distribution territories at 1.3600, 1.3650 and 1.3700 could be seen. There could be pauses and transitory bearish corrections along the way.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair went bearish in the first week of this month and then went bullish last week. The market is bearish in the long-term and bullish in the short-term. This week, price could go further upwards by another 100 pips, but further bullish movement would be rejected, owing to a bearish expectation on JPY pairs for this week.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair went upwards from the demand zone at 130.00 to test the supply zone at 133.00 (a gain of 300 pips). The supply zones at 132.50, 133.00 and 133.50 would be reached this week before there is a turn in the market, which would harbinger a southwards movement, which would result in a bearish bias. On Friday, price closed below the supply zone at 132.50, after testing the supply zone at 133.00.

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Trading plan 09/18 - 09/22/2017

The general picture: the Fed and North Korea.

On Monday morning, the markets calmed down after a nervous weekend: the launch of a new long-ranged missile by North Korea on Friday towards Japan - put on the agenda the issue of a US military strike against North Korea. With no slim possibility- in this case - of the beginning of a big war in Korea - and potentially the use of nuclear weapons.

However, so far, the crisis has limited itself to new tough statements by the US officials. On Tuesday they expect Trump's big program speech at the UN - undoubtedly, he will demand the isolation of North Korea. For the markets, it is important that the probability of war decreased sharply until Wednesday. North Korea seems to have reduced a little - but everyone understands that leader Kim Jong-Un is even more unpredictable than Trump.

The main event for the markets is the Federal Reserve's announcement on Wednesday evening. This meeting is more important than usual - the Fed will publish the decision at 6:00 pm London Time and also the revised forecast (published every six months) on the US economy - GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, interest rates. Press conference of the head of the Federal Reserve Yellen will be held 30 minutes after the publication.

Moreover- on Thursday / Friday - the news is not very important. But on Sunday, September 24, - the elections in Germany will be held. This is traditionally puts pressure on the euro - before the publication of the results. A gap is possible at the opening next Monday.

EURUSD

Consolidation was formed. Daily limits: 1.1835 - 1.2100.

Boundaries for H4: top 1.2000, bottom 1.1835.

Open positions on the breakthrough of the borders of the scale of H4 - buy from 1.2000, and sell from 1.1835.

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GBP/USD analysis for September 15, 2017

Forex analysis review
GBP/USD analysis for September 15, 2017

US Dollar: bulls ready for revenge

The US dollar was sold at the close of the week on Friday after an unexpectedly weak report on retail sales and industrial production for the month of August. The data cast doubt on the prospects for the recovery of the US economy.

Retail sales decreased by 0.2% compared to July. Moreover, the July growth of 0.6% was revised downwards to 0.3%. Meanwhile, the report for June was a;so revised from + 0.3% to -0.1%. Thus, the dynamics of retail sales over the past three months was significantly worse than the market expected, casting doubt on the ability of the US consumer sector to maintain demand at the same level.

For the first time since January, the volume of industrial production has decreased. The decline in August was 0.9%, which is the maximum monthly decline since May 2009, causing the manufacturing industry fell by 0.3%. The reason for such a weak data, according to experts, is the consequences of hurricane "Harvey", which broke out on the southern coast of the United States and contributed to a decline in the oil refining and chemical industries.

The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was now under attack. The GDPNow model from the Atlanta Federal Reserve forecasts an increase of 2.2% in the third quarter, which is noticeably worse than the 4% growth expectations of just 6 weeks ago. Meanwhile, weak economic growth casts doubt on the Fed's plans to normalize monetary policy.

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The failed report on retail sales was unexpected given the acceleration in consumer price growth. In August, inflation rose by 0.4% against a growth of 0.1% for the month of July. Year-on-year growth reached 1.9%. The results were better than forecasts and, it would seem, gave a strong argument for the bulls on the dollar. Good dynamics on consumer activity would add credibility to the leaders of the Fed. This is because after the start of the program to reduce the balance sheet following the meeting on September 20, the market considered the matter resolved,and the dollar should have receive the long-awaited impetus for a turn.

However, the dollar's fate is again in question. Of course, the dynamics of retail sales is unpleasant news for the Fed but it will not affect its position. The plan to reduce the balance sheet was announced in advance and the impact of the hurricane will have be temporary. However, the increase in inflation is a much stronger argument, and it will give an opportunity in the updated forecast of September 20 to indicate higher figures than the market expects.

The weakening of the dollar by the end of the week was also caused by the unexpectedly aggressive position of the Bank of England, which announced the imminent start of the rate hike cycle, and fixing profits before the weekend. At the same time, there is a noticeable recovery in the markets, which is reflected in the growth in demand for risky assets with stock indices growing. The dollar is experiencing a clear deficit of good news, and the beginning of the week before the Fed meeting will be held in anticipation of the positive outcome of the meeting.

At the moment, the dollar is ready to resume growth. All the catalysts for its decline in the current year are already played by the market. There are no new catalysts and there are very few reasons for further weakening. The problem with the level of public debt and government funding is removed from the agenda. The fate of the tax reform is in the hands of the democrats with whom Trump, according to recent data, has managed to find a solution that suits everyone. Any announcement of support for reforms by the Congress will serve as a powerful driver for the growth of the dollar, as it will potentially contain the factor of a rapid inflow of investments into the US economy.

The dollar has good chances, primarily against the yen and the franc. The Central Bank of Japan and the NBS continue to adhere to a soft monetary policy, which, against the backdrop of growing interest in risk, will be an additional argument in favor of sales. Against the euro, the dollar does not yet have strong positions, as the ECB is also preparing to wind down the buyback program. However, the euro's rise before the Fed meeting is virtually ruled out. Trade in the Australian and Canadian dollars will be cautious, with greater chances to go into the lateral range, at least until the support from rising commodity prices ceases.

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The market overestimates the strength of the pound

Eurozone

ECB board member Sabine Lautenschlager said that the conditions for achieving a stable trend of inflation have been formed and it is necessary to think about how to complete non-traditional measures of monetary stimulus. The stance of Lautenschlager is close to the expectations of the market, especially as it has been confirmed by the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators: the quarterly data published on Friday for labor costs per unit of labor in Q2 were significantly higher than forecasts and indicate an increase in the cost of working hours.

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A similar position is maintained by the president of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann. In his opinion, "one should not miss a suitable opportunity to reduce the stimulus," which Weidman said in his speech in Frankfurt.

The euro still looks very convincing, but the ECB's discontent with the rising euro exchange rate, which has a positive effect on the market. be dismissed. This week, the euro will be able to continue its correction, and the resumption of its rally is only possible if the US Federal Reserve does not meet the growing market expectations.

United Kingdom

The pound was finished the week with impressive growth, as investors reacted to the unexpectedly hawkish tone of the Bank of England's statement. In their comments, several members of the Monetary Policy Committee immediately expressed their confidence in the need for start-up raising rates, among which were unexpectedly the doves Gertjan Vlieghe and chief economist of the Bank of England, Andrew Haldane.

The pound's case for continued growth can be published on Wednesday, when retail sales data for the month of August will be published. It's no secret that high inflation, to which the Bank of England justifies the need to raise rates, is just a reflection of the fall in the trade-weighted rate. A weak pound led to a rise in cost of imports, which ultimately resulted in an increase in consumer prices. However, a number of other indicators, such as an increase in the average wage, are also caused by the lagging behind of growth of prices; so inflation, in fact, stands on unstable foundation.

This point is well monitored by the dynamics of retail sales, which clearly leaves much to be desired.

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This week, the fourth round of Brexit talks was due to start, which was postponed for a week. On Friday, Theresa May will speak on the relationship with the EU and the growing tensions. Both parties intend to complete the process with the least losses, and there is a high probability that the Bank of England is in a hurry with the increase of rates, not to offset the inflation, but in order to raise the attractiveness of British assets. The influx of investment in the UK economy is at a very low level, and the situation requires decisive action. At the same time, the pound's rise will reduce inflationary pressures, and the Bank of England risks losing its main argument in the issues concerned with rates.

The rapid growth of the pound will lose momentum on Monday, but it's too early to speak about the possibility of a corrective decline. The market will be fully focused on the forthcoming meeting of the Fed, the pound needs an additional driver, which can strengthen the position of the Bank of England. The scenario of technical correction to 1.3350 is probable, for the continuation of growth the fundamental causes are weak.

Oil and ruble

The growth of prices contributes to strong demand and the general sentiment of the market for risky assets. Oil production in the US has not yet recovered, as well as processing, as the consequences of the hurricane allow bulls to control the ball in the oil market.

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