Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for September 04, 2015

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Overview

GBP/JPY dropped to as low as 183.14 last week, but was supported above 61.8% retracement of 174.86 to 195.86 at 182.88 and recovered. Overall outlook did not changed. Price actions from 195.86 are viewed as a consolidation pattern and should be supported by mentioned 182.88 Fibonacci level. An upside breakout through 195.86 is expected later. However, sustained trading below 182.88 will dampen our view and turn focus back to the 174.86 support instead.

In the longer term, the uptrend from the 116.83 long-term bottom is still in progress. The current rise is likely to have a test on 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80 in the medium term at least. A break of 174.86 will bring deeper correction first.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for September 04, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair continues trading within the broader range between 1.4600 and 1.4900. The pair can break below the 1.4600 levels, but the risk/reward ratio to initiate short positions now is not good. It is recommended to exit long positions and remain flat for now, looking to initiate short positions at higher levels. Immediate resistance is seen at the 1,4900 levels (interim) followed by 1.5100 and higher, while support is seen at 1.4600 levels followed by 1.4500 and lower. The pair needs to break out of the confined trading range to enable taking positions.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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EUR/NZD analysis for August 04, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.733. In the daily time frame, we can observe a supply bar in an average volume. The trend is neutral. Buying still looks risky, since we got strong weakness today. Watch only for selling opportunities after retracement. We need to see a change in the trend behavior from neutral to downward and then we can watch for selling opportunities. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe sings of weakness (no demand and upthrust) that means we may expect a downward movement. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance level and our Fibonacci retracement 50% at the price of 1.7510 is on the test.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.7640

R2: 1.7735

R3: 1.7895

Support levels:

S1: 1.7327

S2: 1.7230

S3: 1.7075

Trading recommendations: Watch only for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Gold analysis for September 04 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of $1,122.67. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a weak supply bar (no-supply bar) in a volume below the average. Watch only for selling opportunities after retracement. Strong support is found at the level of $1,117.50. If the price breaks this support level, we will get the second support around $1,085.00. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe sign of weakness (supply coming in). Anyway, in the background we got a potential stopping volume with low at the price of $1,122.00. I would like to see a breakout of that area to confirm further downward. The trend is strong in favor of sellers so buying looks risky. Be careful of the news relases today and trade safe.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,130.45

R2: 1,133.45

R3: 1,138.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,121.00

S2: 1,117.65

S3: 1,113.00

Trading recommendations:

There is weak demand today on the market but stopping volume from yesterday is still in the play at the price of $1,122.00.

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Global macro overview for 04/09/2015

Global macro overview 04/09/2015:

The main event of the day is the Non-Farm Employment Change news release that is currently expected to hit the level of 215k. This jobs report is rather important for the US economy.

Ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, which will take place in under two weeks, market participants are very cautious. Today the market is rather quiet that is typical for this kind of important news release, especially if the NFP number might influence the Fed's attitude towards the first possible rate hike in six years. Please notice that I would expect to see a lot of volatility around the news release.

The US Dollar Index technical picture shows a strong rebound from the 93.13 support with daily candle close way above the level. Any better-than-expected figures might result in a test at the level of 98.33. Please bare in mind the golden trend line as well.

The release is scheduled as follows:

12:30 USA Unemployment Rate exp. 5.2%

12:30 USA Non-Farm Employment Change exp. 215K

12:30 USA Change in Private Payrolls exp. 215K

12:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings Aug exp. 0.2% m/m; 2.1% y/y

12:30 USA Participation rate exp. 62.6%

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Global macro overview for 04/09/2015

Global macro overview 04/09/2015:

Yesterday's ECBs decision on the interest rate (to maintain it at 0.05%), deposit facility rate (-0.20%), and marginal lending facility (0.3%) did not surprise market participants. Another decision to increase the issue share limit on securities to 33% from 25% wasn't priced in as a rather possible and unavoidable result of the current ECB's monetary policy, so this news together with dovish comments of Mario Draghi was the main reason behind the general weakness in the euro. Moreover, as indicated yesterday, Mario Draghi mentioned that the asset-purchase size and timeline might be extended beyond September 2016 if necessary.

Today's major event is the NFP number release scheduled for 12:30 GMT. The market expectations are at the level of 215k and any number better then this might cause further EUR/USD sell-offs .

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 4, 2015

General overview for 04/09/2015 11:00 CET

The latest bullish count labeling did not do well as the new low had been reached before wave b green unfold. So, let's just take a look at a higher cycle labeling to indicate a possible target for the recent market decrease. The 61%Fibo support is seen at the level of 131.92, 66%Fibo support is seen at the level of 131.09 and both of this levels correspond to the 1-to-1 geometry range ( orange rectangle). This zone might be then the target for wave C and a possible upside rebound form the zone is currently expected.

Support/Resistance:

131.92 - 61%Fibo

131.09 - 66%Fibo

131.75 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Swingtraders should close their sell orders in the support zone between the levels of 131.92 and 131.09.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 4, 2015

General overview for 04/09/2015 10:40 CET

The market has decline in three waves from the top of wave b green. This might suggest a further complex wave progression that might be developing in the sideways manner round the weekly pivot at the level of 1.3230. Please notice that the impulsive wave progression is likety to be rather low now unless the intraday support at the level of 1.3115 is violated in impulsive fashion.

Support/Resistance:

1.3352 - Swing High

1.3326 - Intraday Resistance (strong)

1.3319 - WR1

1.3230 - Weekly Pivot

1.3164 - Intraday Support

1.3115 - Intraday Support (strong)

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should refrain from trading and wait for more clear pattern to occur. Swingtraders should close their long-term buy orders and wait for the further confirmation of a higher-degree corrective cycle.

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USDX technical analysis for September 4, 2015

The US Dollar Index broke above the bullish flag pattern and above the short-term resistance of 96.20. The trend is bullish but there are some signs of weakness. With NFP numbers announced today, traders should be very cautious as volatility is expected to rise sharply today.

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Green line - support

The index is in a bullish short-term trend moving towards higher highs and higher lows. Support is seen at 96.10 and 95.80. A breakout below these levels will probably push the index even lower towards the cloud support at 95. In case of a breakout below the cloud support, we will find the next support at 94.

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This week's candle is still below the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). This is not a good sign. A rejection at these levels will be a bearish signal. Bulls need to be very cautious as my forecast of the second pullback towards 92 is still in play.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold technical analysis for September 4, 2015

Gold price broke its short-term support yesterday but found the next support at $1,120, where the recent low was found on August 18. The short-term trend is bearish. Bullish signal will come when we break above $1,133.

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Green line - support

Black line - resistance

Gold price is trading above the Green trend-line support but below the Black trend line that connects its two recent highs. The rice is also below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. This confirms that bears are in control of the short-term trend. The picture will change if the price breaks above $1,133.

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The weekly chart is still supported by the tenkan-sen (red line-indicator), but we should see a bounce today towards $1,145 after the announcement of the Non-Farm Payrolls. Only in that case bulls will have chances of success. If the week closes below $1,120, the next-week trend will be bearish.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 4, 2015

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Technical summary:

There is still no verdict here. As long as support at 1.7103 stays intact, one more rally higher to 1.9023 and above can not be excluded. To confirm a new rally higher towards 1.9023, a break above minor resistance at 1.7743 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.7896 should be seen. That said, we are a bit reluctant to make a strong call for one final rally above 1.9023. The reason behind it is that the top of wave iii seems to move very far away and risk of a wave five failure could be much greater than normally.

Trading recommendation:

The trend is still up. Support at 1.7103 is still holding firm, so we would normally be buying EUR, but the risk seems much greater than normal, so for now we will stay neutral.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 4, 2015

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Technical summary:

A break below 133.27 confirmed that correction from 141.06 is still unfolding and should move lower to 131.63 as the next downside target. The short-term former support at 133.27 will act as resistance now , but even in case of a breakout the back-up resistance will be found at 133.67, which is expected to protect the upside.

But what if support at 131.63 gives away too? Looking at the price-action since May we have a clear S/H/S top in place (see the chart below). Yesterday's break below 133.27 points to a break below the S/H/S neckline and the measured downside target for this formation is below a mid-April low of 126.05. If this low is broken, the rally to 141.06 would be assumed to be an X-wave and a much larger correction is unfolding.

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Trading recommendation:

We will place an order to sell EUR at 133.25

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 4, 2015

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD has now broken out of its recent sideways phase. The breakout favored the bears as the price tested the support line at 1.1100. The bears' willingness to continue testing the support line is perceived and the line may yield as the EUR/USD goes further south today.

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USD/CHF: The bias on this pair is bullish, owing to the near-term strength in the USD. There is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level of 50. The price has tested the resistance level at 0.9750, and it may test it again, breaching it to the upside.

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GBP/USD: The cable has dived by 160 pips this week, resting on the accumulation territory of 1.5250. There are now a lot of activities around the accumulation territory, as bull and the bear continue to struggle for supremacy, an ongoing volatility would be observed. The accumulation territory at 1.5200 remains an easy target for bear.

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USD/JPY: This market is also bearish vividly. Based on the price action, it would be rational to seek short trades when the market rallies a bit. As long as the rally does not hit the market above the supply level of 121.50, this would be called a bearish market.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY cross, which became bearish last week, has fallen by 250 pips this week. In line with our expectations, the price has gone below the supply zones at 134.50 and 134.00. With more selling pressure in the market, this cross could also test the demand zone of 133.00.

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 04, 2015

The USDX is still alive in the bullish path above the support level of 95.83, and current resistance zone of 96.64 could produce a pullback. However, this corrective move should have a short duration, as the USDX is expected to test the resistance level of 97.23.

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On the H1 chart, the USDX is forming a higher high pattern above the support level of 96.34 and we should see a test around the resistance level of 96.63. If a breakout happens over there, the index will rise to 97.03. The MACD indicator is entering the negative territory, and this would mean the USDX could perform corrective moves soon.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.64 / 97.23

Daily chart's support levels: 95.83 / 95.26

H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.63 / 97.03

H1 chart's support levels: 96.34 / 96.09

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 96.63, take profit is at 97.03, and stop loss is at 96.24.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 04, 2015

On the daily chart, there is still a lower continuation on GBP/USD towards new monthly lows, as the pair is approaching the support zone of 1.5224. We should see a breakout there in order to test the next support around the level of 1.5107. The other path is calling for a correction towards the resistance level of 1.5329 in the short term.

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We can see a breakout below 1.5272. Now, the pair is testing the support level of 1.5220. On the H1 chart, 200 SMA is still bearish and we could expect another fall towards the support zone of 1.5167 in coming hours. However, after this long fall made by the GBP/USD, there could happen some rebounds during the process.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5329 / 1.5438

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5224 / 1.5107

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5272 / 1.5331

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5220 / 1.5167

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5220, take profit is at 1.5167, and stop loss is at 1.5272.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 04, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release data on Average Cash Earnings y/y and the US will publish economic data on the Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with medium to high volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.14.

Resistance. 2: 120.19.

Resistance. 1: 119.94.

Support. 1: 119.65.

Support. 2: 119.42.

Support. 3: 119.18.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 04, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic news on the Revised GDP q/q, Retail PMI, and German Factory Orders m/m is due to be released. The US will publish economic data on the Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1176.

Strong Resistance:1.1170.

Original Resistance: 1.1159.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1148.

Target Inner Area: 1.1112.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1096.

Original Support: 1.1085.

Strong Support: 1.1074.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1068.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 4, 2015

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair has rebounded from minor support at 0.9701 and it is now approaching its support in order to test it again. As it is known, we use historic rates to determine future prices, so it will probably start upside movement at this area and recovery again at the level of 0.9701. Therefore, it will be a good sign to buy at this spot with the first target at 0.9769 and continue towards 0.9826. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the level of 0.9659, then it will be a good location for placing stop loss below 0.9643. The value of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement was calculated at 0.9659. If the price hits 0.9659, it will continue in moving in a bearish trend towards 0.9581. It should remind you that you should check out the market volatility before investing, because the price may have already been reached and scenarios might have become invalidated.

Notes:

  • We expect a range about 82 pips today.
  • The risk of 41 pips must make a profit of 82 pips.
  • The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is 0.9580.
  • The level of 0.9701 will confirm the bullish market.

Technical levels:

  • It should be noted that the price will be moving between 0.9701 and 0.9783 today.
  • Projected high: 0.9826.
  • Strong support (sell stop): 0.9656.
  • Projected low: 0.9580.
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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 4, 2015

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Overview:

  • The USD/CAD pair is expected to face strong resistance at the level of 1.3280 and this level is coinciding with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. Equally important, the price is still moving between 1.3144 and 1.3251. Also, the USD/CAD pair is still below 78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels since last week. As a result, the price has already formed the strong resistance at 1.3280/1.3251 and it is now approaching it in order to test it. Moreover, it should be noted that the level of 1.3251 is the key level today. Therefore, the USD/CAD pair will get downside momentum rather convincing and the fall does not look corrective, for indicating a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.3280 for that it will be a good sign to sell below 1.3280/1.3250 with the first target of 1.3226 (this level is coinciding with the weekly pivot point). It will call for downtrend in order to continue bearish towards 1.3141. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, Hence, it will be useful to set your stop loss at the level of 1.1313.
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  • Also it should be noted that the USD/CAD pair is still calling for bullish market in the daily chart.
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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 3, 2015

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Overview:

Few months ago, when bulls pushed the price further above 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs), resulting in lower highs (within the depicted consolidation zone) enhancing the bearish side of the market.

A daily fixation below 1.2300 opened the way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend).

Bullish support was found around these levels. Successive higher lows were achieved. Bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels at 1.2450 and 1.2500 (previous tops).

On the other hand, the previous weekly candlestick was quite bullish. That is why, an extensive bullish movement is seen on the chart.

A bullish breakout above the zone of 1.2770-1.2800 has been executed.

The long-term bullish target was projected towards the level of 1.3270 (100% Fibonacci Expansion) where bearish pressure should be expected. Bulls are revisiting this level today.

Bearish corrective movement towards the level of 1.2750 (Breakout Level) should be expected as long as USD/CAD bears keep defending the Fibonacci Expansion zone around 1.3270 - 1.3300.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.3100 (lower limit of the depicted Flag pattern) is needed to expose the next support level around 1.2910 and then 1.2800 where long-term buy entries can be considered.

Trading recommendations:

A counter-trend SELL entry was suggested previously anywhere around the price level of 1.3330 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%). S/L should be placed above the price level of 1.3400.

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards the recent breakout zone (1.2800-1.2750) for a valid buy entry as the breakout level constitutes a recent strong support.

Stop Loss should be located below the level of 1.2700. T/P levels should be located at 1.2850 and 1.2900 and T/P levels to be placed at 1.3200 and 1.3050.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 3, 2015

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Few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900, which has been providing evident supply for the GBP/USD pair.

Last week, strong bearish pressure was applied at the level of 1.5550 again. It was broken down temporarily two weeks ago, when a weekly bullish engulfing candlestick was expressed.

For several weeks, consecutive weekly candlesticks have been generating contradictory signals.

However, a previous weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hindered a further bearish decline for some time and enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.5670 (previous weekly high) and 1.5780 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

The most recent WEEKLY candlestick came as bearish engulfing one, closing below the price level of 1.5450 (Head and Shoulders neckline). This enhances the bearish side of the market in the long term. Approximate projection target for the reversal pattern should be located near the price level of 1.5050.

In the short term, the nearest demand level around 1.5200 is vulnerable to retesting as long as the GBP/USD bears manage to keep moving below the level of 1.5450 (neckline).

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Previously, the zone of 1.5800-1.5880 acted as significant supply. It offered a valid sell entry few weeks ago. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the level of 1.5550, which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci level and the previous prominent top, was temporarily broken allowing further bearish decline towards 1.5350 where an ascending bottom was recently established.

The level of 1.5500 formed a significant key level to watch for. It corresponded to the uptrend line depicted on the chart.

Prominent supply/resistance existed around the price level of 1.5770 (prominent 61.8% Fibonacci level) where the right shoulder of the depicted bearish reversal pattern was originated.

That is why, a valid sell entry was suggested for retesting 1.5770 last week on Monday. The position is already running in profits now.

Moreover, the current bearish movement seeks the price level of 1.5200 (Prominent Demand Level) as long as the market keeps trading below the zone of 1.5450-1.5500.

On the other hand, bearish rejection should be expected at retesting of the price zone of 1.5450-1.5500 (recent resistance zone) with the same T/P levels projected towards 1.5200.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 3, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously hit back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established in January 1997). Bullish recovery was expressed shortly after.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May, June, July, and August) reflected that recent bearish rejection being expressed around 1.1450.

In the long term, a projection target will be still located at 0.9450 if a bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 occurs soon.

On the other hand, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 will be possible only if May's monthly high of 1.1465 gets breached. This can be achieved if the current monthly candlestick closes above the weekly high (1.1465) by the end of this month.

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Recently, evident bullish recovery was expressed after hitting the level of 1.0800. Since then, bulls have been trying to achieve an extensive bullish movement towards 1.1500 and 1.1700.

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0830 and 1.1020. These levels corresponded to the current daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Extensive bullish pressure was applied until bearish resistance was expressed around the price level of 1.1700.

Recently, the market looked overbought as the bulls were pushing above the price level of 1.1500 (Daily Supply Level). That is why, a bearish movement took place towards the price level of 1.1160 (61.8% Fibonacci level) which is being breached today.

Daily persistence below the price level of 1.1160 exposes the next demand levels around 1.0980 where the daily uptrend comes to meet the pair.

Conservative traders can have a valid BUY entry anywhere around the price zone of 1.0980-1.1000 (corresponding to the depicted uptrend line).

S/L should be placed below 1.0950. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1080 and 1.1160.

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