Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 5, 2018

analytics5b3e2235a0127.png

Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established. However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, further bearish momentum was expressed in the market.

Recently, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered significant bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry. Bearish target around 1.1520 has already been reached.

The price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent bullish demand where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

On the other hand, the price levels around 1.1750 remain a significant supply zone for the EUR/USD pair where bearish rejection should be anticipated.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped inside a consolidation range between the depicted key-levels 1.1520 and 1.1700 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 5, 2018

analytics5b3e223c22e1f.png

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until the bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.

Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears That's why bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for sellers to have a valid SELL entry. It's already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to 0.6800 to secure some profits.

Recently, the price zone of 0.6820-0.6780 was being challenged by the NZD/USD bears. This price zone was considered as a target level for current sellers.

The current bearish breakdown of the price zone 0.6820-0.6780 allowed bearish decline towards 0.6700-0.6680 where early signs of bullish recovery were manifested.

The current bullish pullback towards the supply zone (0.6820-0.6780) should be watched for bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.6850.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR / USD as of 05/07/2018

Given that yesterday in the US, Independence Day was celebrated and in the absence of American traders, market was completely calm. There were some interesting data on Europe, which already today will be taken into account by the market. t is about the data on the index of business activity in the service sector of the euro area, which increased from 53.8 to 55.2. Together with it, the composite index of business activity grew from 54.1 to 54.9. Thus, a single European currency has many reasons for growth.

Today, the turn of US statistics is to please market participants. Therefore, ADP's employment data should show its growth by 190 thousand against 178 thousand in the previous month. But along with such good data, there is data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. It is expected that the number of initial applications may decrease from 227 thousand to 225 thousand, but the number of repeat ones will grow from 1,705 thousand to 1,720 thousand. The total balance should grow by 13 thousand. Meanwhile, the non-productive sector drop from 58.6 to 56.5, and the composite index of business activity from 56.6 to 56.0.

Hence, it is clear that the forecasts are negative, at least for the dollar. Of course, we can assume that today's publication of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission for Open Market Operations will help the dollar. However, this is unlikely. The fact that the Fed's policy is completely transparent and there are no surprises on the horizon. Everyone already knows that by the end of the year, the Federal Commission for Open Market Operations will once again raise the refinancing rate, so there will be nothing new in the content of the text of the protocol.

After stagnation within the level of 1.1650, the EUR/USD currency pair managed to break free extended the upper limit of the chart to 1.1680. We can assume a further move to the periodic level of 1.1720, where one can already expect stagnation within it.

analytics5b3dbc5ea3522.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 05/07/2018

Wednesday was treated as a mini weekend with an increased risk of extraordinary events, as a result of which on Tuesday investors focused on closing profitable positions while they still had a chance. As yesterday passed without surprises, today we return to the leitmotif of the last days, what are the trade wars and their impact on the global economy. The eyes of investors are primarily on China, where today the yuan's performance was stable, but the stock market remained in bearish moods. The copper and iron ore also lost strength, which together shows that it is nervous. In this context, the stability of major currencies is impressive, although it may be the silence before the storm. The escalation of the commercial dispute is close because tomorrow the White House is to introduce a life of import duty including Chinese goods worth 34 billion USD. Donald Trump has promised to limit imports for goods worth $ 50 billion, so the risk by the end of the week is what the US intends to do with the remaining $ 16 billion. At the same time, China stipulated that "by no means" would not make the first move, but would not hesitate to respond to the actions of the United States. Personally, I have doubts whether the implementation of the tariffs will bring a market reaction in the style of "buy rumors, sell facts". Taking into account that Trump will not like China's retaliatory actions and will threaten with further tariffs, this may be a contribution to a further wave of risk aversion.

Let's now take a look at the Gold technical picture in the daily time frame. After the Death Cross around the level of $1,310, the market has dropped towards the technical support at the level of $1,236. Due to the oversold market conditions, the price has bounced towards the level of $1,261 and currently, the bulls are still trying to rally higher, but the momentum remains below its fifty level. If the next wave down will occur, then the traders should closely watch the support at $1,236, because, in a case of a breakout, the next important support is seen at the level of $1,204.

analytics5b3df69a98cf2.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fed protocols can affect the market

During the Asian session today, the USD/JPY pair reacted with a rather strong burst of volatility on the comments of a board member of the Bank of Japan. However, there were no serious technical changes in the alignment of forces.

BOJ board member, Takako Masai, said that prices in Japan are not high enough, despite the general improvement of the economy, and achieving the 2 percent inflation may take some time because of the persisting deflationary way of thinking.

Masai also drew attention to the fact of US protectionism, which will affect the global distribution of assets. Hence, further balanced and stable mitigation of the policy would be quite appropriate, in his opinion. According to the representative of the Central Bank, the 2 percent inflation is a worldwide standard, as it helps to stabilize exchange rates.

The latest statements led to the weakening of the Japanese yen against the US dollar.

From a technical point of view, the USD/JPY pair comes close to a large resistance level of 110.70. The breakthrough of which will lead to the formation of a new larger upward wave, with the return and renewal of resistance in the region of 111 and 111.55 yen. It is in this range that one can see short positions on the trading instrument, in the expectation of further strengthening of the Japanese yen against the US dollar as a safe haven.

Today there will be a number of important fundamental statistics on the US economy.

In view of yesterday's weekend in the US Independence Day, there are no significant changes in the markets. At the beginning of the North American session today, a report from the ADP on the labor market will be published. Economists expect an increase in the number of jobs by 190,000 in June this year. Also, there will be weekly data on unemployment benefits.

analytics5b3dbb29a9961.png

However, more attention will now be paid to the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed, in which investors will count on hints towards a more rapid increase in interest rates this year and the next. If traders do not receive new information in this direction, the pressure on the US dollar may increase, as the market will again move to the side of risky assets.

The technical picture remains unchanged. Only the breakthrough of resistance at 1.1680 can seriously damage the stop-orders of sellers, which will lead to a more active growth of the European currency with the renewal of the highs around 1.1730 and 1.1780. The main target of the sellers are the larger support levels around 1.1580 and 1.1530, but for this, it is necessary to return to the intermediate area 1.1630.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 05/07/2018

The beginning of the European session brings an appreciation of the euro, which is related to the increase in orders in German industry in May. Industrial orders increased by 2.6% on monthly basis against the expected increase by 0.1%. On an annual basis, the increase in orders amounted to 4.4% against the market consensus of 1.7%.

The European currency also caught its breath after the symptoms of the government crisis in Germany were solved. Angela Merkel provided the basis for further cooperation with the head of the CSU yesterday. Moreover, the valuation of the European currency may also be positively influenced by the recent financial media reports that some central bankers from the ECB do not feel comfortable with the price of money in the euro area priced by the market. Investors see the first rate hike by the ECB only in December 2019. In connection with the above, it is worth following the comments of bank members appearing this week in relation to monetary policy.

The US Dollar Index corrects the recent strong increases after it has been permanently failed to maintain above 95 points. Thursday's session is important for the dollar due to published data. Today, we will learn about the ADP report on changes in employment in the private sector, where 190,000 new jobs are expected to increase. against an increase by 178,000 in May. Solid employment growth can be a good sign for tomorrow's official report from the US Department of Labor. In addition, traders will learn the final reading of the ISM index for the US industry. In the evening, notes from the last FOMC meeting will be published, in which you should seek guidance on the speed of tightening monetary policy and the assessment of the effects of the trade war.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trading below the short-term dashed black trend line as it gets closer to the important support at the level of 94.18. A violation of this level would likely lead to the test of the longer-term golden trend line and even a drop towards the key technical support at the level of 93.21. Please notice the oversold market conditions that are indicating a temporary bounce from the current levels. The nearest intraday resistance is seen at the level of 94.46.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Banking Areas of AUD / USD pair

Yesterday, the next zone of bank compilation was formed. It coincided with the zone in the previous week, which speaks of the flat nature of the medium-term movement. Closure of yesterday's trading occurred within the zone. Thus, the priority is not yet known.

For the third week in a row, the banking compilation zones are formed on the same marks. This allows us to talk about the continuation of the formation of the medium-term accumulation zone. Support is defined at the level of 0.7340, as there is an increase in demand below it. Above the level of 0.7443, there is an increase in supply. These levels must be taken into account when determining prices for setting take profits and searching for patterns to enter into transactions. From the top of the range, it is profitable to look for sales, while from the bottom, we should look for purchases. At this time, the probability of an upward and downward movement is approximately equal.

analytics5b3db0cee4530.png

The last impulse movement was leaning towards the strengthening of the Australian dollar, which may cause the continuation of growth and the renewal of the weekly maximum. You can purchase a tool from within the zone of the bank compilation. The stop-level will determine today's low. The first goal in fixing purchases will be the level of 0.7443. Further growth will depend on whether the pair can gain a foothold above this level. To exit the flat, you will need to close either above 0.7443 or below 0.7340 in the US session.

analytics5b3db19a4215e.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for July 05, 2018

analytics5b3ddace5ade4.png

Trading recommendations:

Recently, Bitcoin has been trading sideways at the price of $6.573. According to the H1 time - frame, I found that price is trading in the upward channel but I also found a hidden divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is a sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the channel to confirm a further downward movement. The downward targets are set at the price of $6.233 and at the price of $5.765.

$6.754– Intraday resistance; $6.473 – Intraday support; $6.233 – Objective target 1;$5.765 - Objective target 2

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for July 05, 2018

analytics5b3dd7c7615e7.png

Recently, Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,260.65. According to the H1 time frame, I found a breakout of a downward channel in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the MACD oscillator and bullish flag pattern in creation. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the bullish flag to confirm further upward continuation. The upward target is set at the price of $1,282.70.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,260.91

R2: $1,265.70

R3: $1,269.00

Support levels:

S1: $1,254.80

S2: $1,251.50

S3: $1,247.70

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD analysis for July 05, 2018

analytics5b3dd4d7dfb14.png

Recently, AUD/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 0.7360. Anyway, according to the H1 time - frame, I found a potential end of the expanded flat downward correction, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a breakout of the suppy trendline in the background, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 0.7440.

Resistance levels: R1: 0.7411R2: 0.7440R3: 0.7460

Support levels: S1: 0.7360S2: 0.7345S3: 0.7350 Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Banking areas EUR/USD

On Wednesday, the open market were on regular operations which allows you to look at the position of the price relative to the new bank compilation zone. It is important to note that the movement relative to the two previous zones indicates the formation of a flat medium term structure, since any deviation would result in a return to the medium levels.

Yesterday's zone was formed at the same level as a week ago, so holding above will indicate a local ascending priority. If the US session today will close above the compilation of the bank, then the upward movement will remain a priority and the first goal will be the retest of the June highs 1.1722, which will keep some of the purchases to that level.

analytics5b3d8c5b7ed6d.png

Continuation of the support will be possible if the EUR/USD pair failed to gain a foothold above the 1.1722 level and shrank again below the bank compilation zone. This will allow us to look for patterns for selling the instrument, with the targets at June low in the medium term. Today, this pattern has a high probability to be implemented, so it is required to reach above the target level. This will save you from the risk reduction to profits of your purchases.

analytics5b3d8da7ad4f5.png

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis on Silver for July 5, 2018

Silver is showing bullish signs and a bullish classical pattern. Our target for silver is between $16.30 and $16.70. This scenario gets confirmed on a break above $16.11.

analytics5b3dc2d0bff84.png

Red line - resistance

The resistance trend line is broken. Silver is consolidating near its highs and is forming a bullish flag pattern. A break above $16.10 will be a bullish signal and will most probably push price towards $16.30 first. I'm optimistic and I think we could see even $16.70 as the bounce unfolds today and tomorrow.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis on EUR/USD for July 5, 2018

EUR/USD is trying to break out and above the short-term trading range. The price is breaking above short-term resistance trend line at 1.17 and we could see more upside if we break 1.1720.

analytics5b3dc1af44ef2.png

Red line - resistance

Blue line - support

Magenta line - RSI support

The EUR/USD held support at 1.15 and is trying to reach the cloud resistance at 1.1770. A break above this level could push the price higher towards 1.19-1.20. Short-term support is at 1.1625. A daily close below this level will be very bearish for EUR/USD and will increase dramatically the chances of moving towards 1.14-1.13 in the first half of July. ADP Payrolls announced today and Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow. These announcements are going to bring volatility to the market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis on Gold for July 5, 2018

The Gold price has stopped its rise at $1,260 where we find the 4-hour cloud resistance. Price is moving lower along the lower cloud boundary. The Gold price has formed what seems to be a bullish flag and is now trying to break out above it.

analytics5b3dc0e31dae8.png

Blue lines - bearish channel

Red lines - bull flag pattern

The Gold price has short-term support at $1,248 and resistance at $1,260. A break above $1,260 will push the price higher towards $1,274 which is the first target. The second target is at $1,290. Gold has broken out of the bearish channel and the chances of a big bounce here are high.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 05/07/2018

American stockbroker Peter Schiff debated with President of ShapeShift - Erik Voorhees - in the Bitcoin Debate program. The two leaders of financial thought discussed the most important issues regarding Bitcoin and their basic Blockchain technology, questioning the possibilities of mass adoption and comparing cryptocurrencies with other types of assets, such as money and gold.

Voorhees, the bitcoin bull of debate, said that Bitcoin would eventually become a substitute for state-supported money, while government structures would be reorganized using Blockchain technology. Voorhees argues that Bitcoin is "an exceptionally good money" praising its proven scarcity, divisibility, durability, flexibility, portability and decentralized character, stating:"Bitcoin will win because there is competition in money and it is currently the best available measure. Because it is decentralized, it can not be stopped".

Voorhees noticed that mass adoption would not take place immediately, arguing that Bitcoin would gradually be used as an occasional alternative to fiat currencies.

In turn, the bitcoin skeptic, gold investor and financial commentator Schiff argued that Bitcoin will not succeed in the future and will act as a substitute for fiat money, because it is not supported by any bodies, and is only endowed with the trust of the buyers, which largely stems from speculation.

Schiff talked extensively about the price-making properties of precious metals, namely gold, arguing that the fact that the US dollar was once supported by gold and allowed it to accumulate trust in time. He also said that gold does not have to compete with any other resource, including Bitcoin, which "replicates all the properties of gold, except the most important one - metal itself". Schiff's argument why gold is valuable as an element is based on the fact that it is a rate and has been valued as a commodity for thousands of years.

Schiff, as well as many supporters of gold for Bitcoin, expressed concern that it is not possible to find out how much Bitcoin is worth in terms of gold or any other physical commodity:"There is no real value in itself as a commodity, there is no way to link the price of Bitcoin to the price of anything else".

Will we choose an optimistic or pessimistic path for Bitcoin, we will agree on one thing - crypto-currencies are an innovation, modern and advanced technology, they are a payment child that develops despite going through various types of "colds". It is what will certainly be a significant part of the global economy in the near future.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The first attempt to break through the technical resistance at the level of $6,809 was unsuccessful, but the pull-back was not that deep and the price is now consolidating around the support at the level of $6,519. The momentum is still positive and strong, so the bulls might attempt again to rally higher. Their first target is seen at the level of $6,993.

analytics5b3dbea9bc63d.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 05/07/2018

Shanghai Composite loses 0.8% and Hang Seng falls by 1.0%. In Tokyo, Nikkei225 exchange drops by 0.9%. Trade wars remain at the center of the investors' attention, the closer we are to the end of the week, when the US is going to officially announce the start of duties on Chinese goods.

Among the major currencies, the worst is AUD, which dropped to USD 0.7370. However, USD/JPY jumped to 110.60 in the last hour. Also in EUR/USD, before the European session, the demand roused and revised the rate just under 1.17.

On Thursday, 5th of July, the event calendar is busy in important data releases. During the London session, Germany will post Factory Orders data, Switzerland will issue CPI data and Eurozone will present Retail PMI data. Later on, during the US session, the traders will get familiar with ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data, Unemployment Claims and Continuing Claims data, ISM Non-Manufacturing data, and at the end of the trading day with FOMC Meeting Minutes. Seems like very active US session is ahead.

The EUR/USD analysis for 05/07/2018:

EUR may find some support in the recent financial media reports. Based on sources from the ECB, some decision-makers in the bank express dissatisfaction that investors do not discount the chances of interest rate hikes earlier than in December 2019. In their opinion, the move is also possible in September or October.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The bulls are again trying to break out above the level of 1.1690 and head towards the 61% Fibo at the level of 1.1720. The technical resistance zone between the levels of 1.1720 - 1.1740 will be tough to break, but in a case of a breakout higher, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1850. The immediate support is seen at the level of 1.1638, 1.1630, and the last one at 1.1590. The momentum remains positive and strong, so the chances for a move upward are still high.

analytics5b3dbc1947b8c.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning forecast 07/05/2018

Burning forecast 07/05/2018

We buy the Euro when the range breaks.

There are no strong new data. Markets are waiting for the introduction of duties on the US-China line on both sides.

Euro at 6:00 AM London time breaks the level of the daily order up.

In the afternoon important data on employment in the US for June will appear - a report from ADP Employment at 15.15 Moscow time, in the evening at 2:00 PM London time the report on the ISM service index, late in the evening "minutes" of the Fed at 6:00 PM London time

However, the market is likely to move based on the technical picture.

Buy the euro from 1.1695 stop 1.1650 target 1.1850

Alternative: Sell from 1.1525

analytics5b3db78562269.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The services sector of the eurozone and the UK demonstrates growth

Despite the good data on the service sector in the eurozone, the European currency fell paired with the US dollar amid a low volume of trading. Today in the United States, Independence Day was celebrated, and in connection with which the exchanges will be closed. This will affect both the volume and market volatility.

In the first half of the day, data came out, which indicated that the index of supply managers for the PMI service sector in Italy in June this year rose to 54.3 points against 53.1 points in may. Economists had expected the index to decline to 53.0 points.

The PMI supply managers index for the French service sector also rose in June to 55.9 points, against the May value, when PMI for the service sector was 54.3 points. The data turned out to be worse than the forecasts of economists, who were counting on growth to 56.4 points.

Similar data for Germany also did not lead to the growth of the European currency. According to the report, the index of supply managers PMI for Germany's service sector in June rose to 54.5 points against 52.1 points in May. Economists had expected PMI for the German services sector to be 53.9 points in June.

The above-mentioned good indicators had a positive impact on the overall PMI supply managers index for the eurozone services sector, which in June rose to 55.2 points against 53.8 points in May. Let me remind you that the value above 50 points indicates an increase in activity in the sector. Economists predicted the growth of the index to 55.0 points.

As for the technical picture. That it remained unchanged compared with the morning forecast.

As expected, after another unsuccessful attempt to break through the weekly highs around 1.1684, the pressure on the euro increased significantly, which led the trading instrument to the first support level of 1.1630. However, the main target is the larger levels of 1.1580 and 1.1530. Only the breakthrough of resistance 1.1680 can seriously damage the stop-orders of sellers, which will lead to a more active growth of the European currency with the renewal of the highs around 1.1730 and 1.1780.

The British pound rose against the US dollar after a good report. According to the research company IHS Markit, the index of supply managers PMI for the service sector of the country in June rose to 55.1 points from 54 points in May, which is the highest level since October 2017. Let me remind you that the index values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

analytics5b3cc41c89417.png

Economists at IHS Markit believe that the current growth in the service sector index could lead to an increase in quarterly GDP from 0.2% to 0.4%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for July 4. Expectations for growth in the Euro-currency are justified

analytics5b3c77f0839e7.png

Analysis of wave counting:

As a result of the previous trading day, the currency pair EUR / USD added about 20 percentage points. And though it is a little, nevertheless, the pair remains within the limits of construction of a prospective wave 3, c, 4. Thus, wave counting does not change, and we continue to expect growth of euro. Wave c, 4 can take the form of a 5-wave structure, but it should be remembered that, according to current wave counting, this is still a corrective wave with targets located near the calculated mark of 1.1856. In the global plan, a resumption of the decline in quotations is expected in the framework of the construction of wave 5 of the downward trend section.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1440 - 323.6% of the Fibonacci of the highest order

1.1118 - 423.6% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1866 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.2072 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD continues to rise within wave 3, c, 4. Thus, I recommend remaining in purchases with targets located near the calculated marks of 1.1856 and 1.2072, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci. I recommend returning to sales not before a successful attempt to break the minimum of the proposed wave b. In this case, the pair will most likely proceed to build the wave 5 of the trend-bearish section with the targets that are about 12 and 11 figures.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for July 5, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains today after rejecting off the dynamic level of 20 EMA yesterday with a daily close. Whereas AUD has been struggling with the recent economic reports, Trade War tension has got into USD ahead of the upcoming NFP report this Friday.

Recently AUD Retail Sales report was published with better than expected value at 0.4% decrease from the previous value of 0.5% but a slightly better than expectation of 0.3% and Trade Balance report failed to meet the expectation with the actual figure of 0.83B increasing from the previous figure of 0.47B which was expected to be at 1.21B.

On the other hand, ahead of the NFP report tomorrow, today Challenger Job Cuts report is going to be published today which previous was at -4.8% with no expectation so far, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is expected to increase to 190k from the previous figure of 178k, Unemployment Claims is expected to decrease to 225k from the previous figure of 227k, Final Services PMI is expected to be unchanged at 56.5 and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report is expected to have slight decrease to 58.3 from the previous figure of 58.6. Moreover, today FOMC Meeting Minutes is going to be held which is expected to have a higher impact on the USD momentum this week.

As of the current scenario, USD is expected to have an upper hand over AUD in the coming days despite the AUD mixed economic reports published recently. Though certain volatility may occur in the process market is still not anti USD biased by now for the Trade War for which certain gains may be observed on the USD side for the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 0.7350 area from where it is expected to push much lower towards 0.72 area in the coming days. The trend has been a bit non-volatile recently for which expected impulsive momentum is yet to be observed in the pair. As the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and 0.7500-50 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

NEAREST RESISTANCE: 0.7500-50

NEAREST SUPPORT: 0.7250

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE VOLATILE

analytics5b3dadcc69733.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 05, 2018

analytics5b3d99f5aa460.jpg

At the 4-hour chart we can see the EUR/JPY pair loosing its volatility, this can be confirmmed by this pair making a triangle pattern, this condition indicate there will be a significant movement in a future, now this pair will try to test the 128.39 level if this level can easily pass, there is a possibility this pair will reach their next target at the next support level 126.96.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 05, 2018

analytics5b3d995e992f9.jpg

The GBP/JPY at the 4-hour charts now moving in a Sideways condition with a Bearish pressure as long as they not break out and close above the 146.62 this pair will going down to test their nearest Support level at 145.16.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 05, 2018

analytics5b3d98bfa9d84.jpg

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as French 10-y Bond Auction, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, Retail PMI, and German Factory Orders m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, Unemployment Claims, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1718.

Strong Resistance:1.1711.

Original Resistance: 1.1700.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1689.

Target Inner Area: 1.1661.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1633.

Original Support: 1.1622.

Strong Support: 1.1611.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1604.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, July 05, 2018

analytics5b3d982cbec47.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the 30-y Bond Auction data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, Unemployment Claims, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 110.97.

Resistance. 2: 110.75.

Resistance. 1: 110.54.

Support. 1: 110.26.

Support. 2: 110.04.

Support. 3: 109.83.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 05, 2018

analytics5b3d6e7add3f3.png

Overview:

Pivot: 1.1615.

The EUR/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.1615. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 1.1615 to a top around 1.1650. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1676 followed by 1.1696, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1614 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 1.1615 and 1.1696; so we expect a range of 81 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 1.1675, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.1721) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.1614 with the first target at 1.1675 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.1696. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.1721 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 1.1610, a further decline to 1.1530 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 05, 2018

analytics5b3d6cc60eea3.png

Overview:

The USD/CAD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.3190, which represents the double top on the H1 chart. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3190 to the bottom around 1.3130. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3227 followed by 1.3190, while daily support is seen at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3093. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still trapping between the levels of 1.3227 and 1.3093. Thus, we expect a range of 137 pips in coming hours. The first resistance stands at 1.3227, for that if the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3227, the market will decline further to 1.3130. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.3093 in order to test the second support (1.3093). On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.3257 (the double top on the H1 chart), then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP/USD for July 4. The dollar begins to show weakness

analytics5b3c78248846e.png

Analysis of wave counting:

In the course of trades on July 3, the GBP/USD pair increased by 50 basis points, which leads to the complication of the proposed wave 4, at 3, in the downtrend and the whole wave 3, in a, which began to take the form of a diagonal triangle. If this assumption is correct, the decline in quotes will nevertheless resume within wave 5 with targets around 1.3054 and 1.2962. After this, it is possible to complete the construction of the descending section of the trend and refine the wave counting. Anyway, now is expected to decline quotes. The working variant retains a high probability of execution until the maximum of wave 2, at 3, in a is broken through.

Targets for buying:

1.3445 - 0.0% Fibonacci (formal goal)

Targets for selling:

1.3054 - 161.8% by Fibonacci

1.2962 - 200,0% by Fibonacci

1.2809 - 261.8% by Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to rise in quotes, presumably within wave 4, at 3, in a. If this is the case, then in today's decline the pair may resume within wave 5 with targets located near the markers 1.3054 and 1.2962, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% by Fibonacci. Return to buying of the pair is recommended not before the cancellation of the current work plan, that is, after a successful attempt to break through the 161.8% mark on the senior Fibonacci grid.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP/USD Divergences for July 4. Two bear divergences warn of the fall

4h

analytics5b3c6849d6e65.png

The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart resumed the growth process towards the corrective level of 161.8% - 1.3301. On July 4, the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator is maturing: the last peak of quotations is higher than the previous one, and a similar peak of the indicator may turn out lower than the previous one. Bearish divergence will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop towards the correction level of 200.0% to 1.3048. The consolidation of the pair's rate below the Fibo level of 200.0% will work in favor of a further decline.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from March 1, 2018 and April 17, 2018.

1h

analytics5b3c68525c22e.png

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair made a return to the correction level of 61.8% - 1.3212. The retreat of quotations from the level of Fibo 61.8% allows you to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% - 1.3182. Bearish divergence in the CCI indicator similarly worked in favor of the US currency. The consolidation of quotes below the Fibo level of 50.0% will increase the chances of the pair to continue falling towards the next corrective level of 38.2% - 1.3150.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of June 22, 2018 and June 28, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Buying of the GBP/USD pair can be opened with a target of 1.3252 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 1.3212, if there is a close above the Fibo level of 61.8% (hourly chart).

The GBP/USD pair can now be sold with a target of 1.3182 (and 1.3150) and a Stop Loss order above the correction level of 61.8%, since there has been a retreat from the level of 1.3212 (hourly chart) with the formation of a bearish divergence.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Daily. Prospects for the development of the movement from July 04, 2018 the Analysis APLs & ZUP

Minor (Daily)

Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar

Previous review from 15.06.2018 17:47 UTC+3.

____________________

GBP/USD does not want to be determined with the development of its upward movement and remains in a fairly wide range:

-> the lower limit of the channel 1/2 Median Line (the resistance level of 1.3160) of the operating-scale forks Minute;

-> reaction line RL23.6 (support level 1.3160) pitchfork of the operational scale of the Minor; accordingly, the direction of breakdown of this range and will determine what further, in July 2018, will begin to flow with the development of the movement of this currency instrument.

____________________

The prospect of a downward movement (sell)

The breakdown of the support level 1.3160 (reaction line RL23.6 forks of operating scale Minor), with subsequent breakdown of levels -> 1.3090 (upper border of the channel 1/2ML Minor) <-> 1.3048 (local low) <-> 1.3000 (control line LTL fork operational scale Minute) -> the option of continuing the movement of GBP/USD in the channel borders 1/2 Median Line (1.3090 <-> 1.2700 <-> 1.2330) the forks of operating scale Minor.

See chart for the details.

____________________

buy)

Break of the resistance level 1.3370 -> the development of the GBP/USD movement will arise within the boundaries of the channel 1/2 Median Line (1.3370 <-> 1.3470 <-> 1.3570) and equilibrium zone (1.3570 <-> 1.3720 <-> 1.3870) trading recommendations.

The details are shown in the graph.

____________________

The review is made without taking into account the news background and is not a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

analytics5b3cb8e34753b.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The calm market will continue

The European currency will continue its gradual strengthening against the US dollar, despite the good data released on the American economy yesterday. Support for risky assets is provided by the political crisis resolution in Germany, associated with a compromise on the issue of immigration, which was a kind of threat to the government.

The the New York business conditions report in the afternoon also put pressure on the US dollar.

According to the Institute of Supply Management ISM, the current business conditions index fell to 55 points in June from 56.4 points in May. Values above 50 indicate an increase in activity. The employment index rose in June to 63.4 points from 50.2 points in May, while the current income index rose to 50 points after dropping to 43.8 points in May.

The US Production orders in May rose helped bring down the demand for some currencies on Tuesday afternoon.

According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, US production orders in May showed an increase of 0.4% compared to the previous month and amounted to 498.2 billion US dollars. Economists had expected that production orders in May would remain unchanged.

If you do not consider the volatile categories of transport, production orders increased by 0.7% in May compared to the previous month. Excluding defense orders, production orders in May fell by 0.1% compared to the previous month.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, everything remained unchanged. The first resistance frontier 1.1680 was pushed up, the breakthrough could seriously damage the stop orders of the sellers which would lead to a more active growth of the European currency, with the renewal of the highs of 1.1730 and 1.1780. In case of another unsuccessful attempt to break through the weekly highs, the pressure on the euro could increase significantly which will return the trading instrument to the larger support levels of 1.1580 and 1.1530.

The Australian dollar continues its steady growth against the US dollar. Yesterday, the support was provided by the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision , and today traders were satisfied with the good report on Australian retail sales which will support the momentum of the country's economic growth.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, retail sales in May 2018 increased by 0.4% compared with April. Economists had expected sales to grow by 0.3%. As noted in the report, a sharp increase in the sales of department stores led to an increase in the indicator. Sales in department stores increased by 3.9%.

analytics5b3c711650706.png

Today, a report was also published from the Bureau of Statistics, which indicated that the surplus of Australia's foreign trade in May was 827 million Australian dollars. Economists forecast a surplus worth 1.2 billion Australian dollars.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The daily review of GBP / USD on July 4, 2018. Ichimoku Indicator

analytics5b3c90d64d525.jpg

GBP / USD

At the moment, the pair, continuing to use the support of the monthly Fibo Kijun (1.3144), keeps the work in the correction zone, does not leave hopes for its development. Key resistance is still concentrated in the area of 1.3275 - 1.3333 (the final frontiers of the day-long dead cross + week-old Tenkan and Senkou Span A). Reliable consolidation above will open up new prospects and opportunities for players to improve. If the players on the slide can overcome support in the near future (1.3144) and leave the correction zone, then the continuation of the decrease to the lower boundary of the weekly cloud will become actual.

analytics5b3c90e54d2c6.jpg

Simultaneously with the transition to the side of players to increase the daily short-term trend (1.3181), long-term support of bullish sentiments in the lower timeframes is formed. Exit to the bullish zone relative to the cloud H4 will allow adding to the upward orientation targets for the breakdown of the cloud H4. The return and consolidation under the most important now support zone 1,3181-44, which combines the levels of the senior and junior halves, will change the current balance of power and return the opportunities for reduction. The first guideline, in this case, will be the update of the minimum extremum of 1.3048.

Indicator parameters:

All time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

The color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

Clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

The color of additional lines:

Support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

Horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

Trend lines - purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. 4th of July. Trading system "Regression channels". The growth potential of the euro is still limited

4-hour timeframe

analytics5b3c7d73048a6.png

Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: direction - down.

Moving average (20; flattened) - sideways.

–°CI: 87.6152

The currency pair EUR / USD on July 3 tried to continue the upward movement and even surpassed the level of Murray "3/8", but now the advantage of bulls looks extremely weak. This is clearly seen in the declining extremes of prices, each of which is lower than the previous one. Today in America is a day off to celebrate Independence Day. Thus, volatility for all instruments in which there is a US dollar can significantly decrease. Nevertheless, we do not have a signal at the moment for the beginning of the downward correction, thus, we can keep the open lines. In Europe today will be published indexes of business activity in the fields of services and production Markit. However, they are unlikely to have a strong impact on traders. Thus, there will be few fundamental factors on the market today.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.1658

S2 - 1,1597

S3 - 1.1536

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.1719

R2 = 1,1780

R3 = 1.1841

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD continues to be located above the removals. Thus, long positions now remain relevant for the purpose of 1,1719. Turning the indicator of Heikin Ashi down will indicate the beginning of a very likely downward correction.

It is recommended to open a sell order after the bear has crossed the moving average line with a target of 1.1597. In this case, the descending trend may resume, especially as it continues to be supported by two linear regression channels.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences for July 4. Euro: There is still powder in the flasks

4h

analytics5b3c688d8660c.png

The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart fulfilled the fixation above the correction level of 61.8% to 1.1639 and the growth to the correction level of 50.0% to 1.1680. Quit quotes from the Fibo level of 50.0% allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop towards the correction level of 61.8%. July 4 is maturing bearish divergence in the MACD indicator. Her education will increase the chances of the pair to retreat from the Fibo level of 50.0%. Fixing the rate above the Fibo level of 50.0% will increase the likelihood of further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 38.2% - 1.1721.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from May 29, 2018, and June 14, 2018.

Daily

analytics5b3c6896967d4.png

On the 24-hour chart, after the rebound from the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1553, the growth of quotations can be continued in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789. The bearish divergence of the CCI indicator is still ripening. Her education will allow you to count on a turn in favor of the US currency and a return to the corrective level of 100.0%. Fixing quotes below the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the probability of continuing the fall of the pair towards the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Buy EUR / USD pair will be possible with the target of 1,1721 with a Stop Loss level under the correction level of 50.0% if there is a close above the level of 1.1680.

To sell the EUR / USD pair is now possible with the target of 1,1639, as there was a retreat from the correction level of 50.0%, with a Stop Loss order above 1.1680, especially if a bearish divergence is also formed.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com