Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 20/01/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Binance, one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges in the world, has started discussions on a strategic partnership with two Japanese companies. According to a press release on January 17, Binance began negotiations with Z Corporation, a subsidiary of Z Holdings formerly known as Yahoo Japan and TaoTao, a Japanese licensed cryptocurrency.

The exact details of the collaboration have not been revealed at the moment, but Binance said Z Corporation and TaoTao will "continue talks and discussions with Binance and begin preparations to launch commercial services for users in Japan."

"We are looking forward to our joint efforts with Z Corporation / TaoTao in providing our services to Japan. First of all, we want to ensure that we operate in full compliance with Japanese laws and regulations, in which local and global standards play a key role in establishing sustainable development in the entire industry and greater public acceptance, "said Binance CEO.

On January 14, the Financial Services Agency (FSA) proposed lowering the leverage ratio in trading the cryptocurrency margin from 4x to 2x. In addition, the amended versions of the Payment Services Act and the Financial Instruments and Stock Exchanges Act, which some consider being harsh and unclear, will be implemented in April.

Binance noted that all parties to the partnership will work with the Financial Services Agency to ensure full compliance with regulations in the Japanese market.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD has reversed from the level of $178.12 after the Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made. The bears have broken out form the local consolidation zone located between the level of $178.12 - $172.91 and managed to hit the technical support at the level of $163.11. Currently, the market is consolidating around this level and the bounce is very shallow so far. If the bearish pressure intensifies again, then the next target for bears is seen at the level of $157.37 and $151.37. Please notice that this is a quite strong technical support zone due to the short-term ascending trendline presence around these levels.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $219.38

WR2 - $198.31

WR1 - $181.78

Weekly Pivot - $161.46

WS1 - $144.93

WS2 - $123.85

WS3 - $107.13

Trading recommendations:

There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed at the level of $115.05, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $146.94 is not violated. Nevertheless, the larger timeframe trend is still down and all the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend until the level of $196.61 is cleary broken.

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Positive sentiment and rising oil increase bearish pressure in USD/CAD; USD/JPY is likely to resume growth

The stock indices of the Asia-Pacific countries started the week with growth, continuing the tendency to lower anti-risk sentiment that took shape last week after signing the first phase of the US-China trade deal. As of 6:00 Universal time, the Shanghai Composite is adding 0.47%, Nikkei 225 is growing by 0.23%, and demand in oil has recovered - Brent is adding 1.30%.

At the same time, the dollar looks unconvincing. There is no growth against the Japanese yen amid a decrease in risks, gold has updated a 12-day high, increasing above 1560 again. The explanation is logical - reducing trading risks reduces the demand for defensive assets, but at the same time, internal factors increase dollar does not contribute.

Consumer sentiment in January worsened from 99.3p to 99.1p according to the University of Michigan, and they can't return to the level of reached highs for a year now.

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Despite all efforts, industrial production continues to decline - in December, a 0.3% reduction was recorded again, while capacity utilization was kept near two-year lows.

A reduction in the supply in the repo market by the Fed could lead to a strengthening dollar, but the liquidity flow will not decrease, but on the contrary, it may even grow, since there will be a tax return period that will seriously increase the supply in February.

Meanwhile, the net long dollar position declined from 40.8 thousand to 33 thousand over the week, due to a combination of factors according to the CFTC. Therefore, the dollar is likely to decline against G10 in the short term.

The coming week will be quite informative. A number of central banks will hold meetings on monetary policy. On Monday, the National Bank of China will decide on a new discount rate, which is projected to remain unchanged. At the same time, the Bank of Japan will take the baton on Tuesday. No changes in the rate are also expected, but forecasts are likely to be revised, as the government is faced with the need to significantly increase costs. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will meet and the head of BoC Poloz will deliver a speech. The meeting will be held by the ECB on Thursday, and the launch of a review of the monetary strategy will be formalized.

USD/CAD

The Bank of Canada continues to adhere to a cautiously positive assessment of the Canadian economy. In the quarterly review of business prospects, it is noted that business sentiment remains generally positive, and expectations of an increase in both domestic demand and exports are growing. In the positive territory, there are also expectations for investment growth, inflationary pressures do not change, business expectations are generally stable, but there has been no steady sales growth for 12 months now, and these statistics make the whole positive design from BoC quite unsteady.

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The Canadian currency turned out to be little defenseless against the news about the trade deal. Trading was in the expected range and perhaps, the players are not in a hurry to change their long-term strategies before announcing the results of the meeting of the Bank of Canada. On Wednesday, Stephen Poloz has already warned that hasty steps should not be expected. Poloz will leave his post on June 2 and the the markets expect another rate cut until this time, but, apparently, not next Wednesday.

However, there will be many reasons for the growth of volatility this week even taking into account the possibly neutral outcome of the BoC meeting. Manufacturing sales report on Tuesday, wholesale, consumer inflation and housing sales index on Wednesday, and retail sales on Friday.

The decline of the dollar last week is similar to a weak bullish reversal with a base of 1.2950, but the inability of the USD/CAD to move higher gives reason for the resumption of sales. Before Wednesday, leaving the range 1.3025 / 90 is unlikely and according to the results of the week, switching to the range 1.2950 / 3030 looks preferable.

USD/JPY

Japan's economy continues to slide into a "soft recession," which is clearly manifested in declining exports and a downward turn in industry. Industrial production in November declined by 1%, while the annual decline is 8.2%, that is, in the region of 7-year lows, which means that the Abe program launched in April 2014 on large-scale stimulation essentially has a negative result.

As a result, the weakness of the dollar holds back the growth of USD/JPY, but updating the maximum of 110.28 is very likely. The target is 110.96 and support is 109.65 / 75. Positive market sentiment will push the pair up.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 20/01/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The Canadian authorities have issued new guidelines to determine which digital currency trading platforms are subject to derivative rules.

The Canadian Securities Authority (CSA) explained the new rules in the "Guidance on the Application of Securities Legislation to Cryptographic Assets facilitators" published on January 16.

Essentially, the agency has established a line between transactional platforms that immediately provide cryptographic resources to their users and those that store transactions related to cryptographic resources until the user makes a subsequent request.

After analyzing trading techniques on various platforms, CSA came to the conclusion that some of them only provide their users with a contractual right or claim to a cryptographic resource and do not immediately transfer it to the user. Such cryptocurrency trading platforms are subject to securities laws, and therefore are subject to derivatives laws.

Potentially, the user will rely on the platform and depend on it until it is transferred to a user-controlled wallet. Until then, the user would not have ownership, possession or control over cryptographic resources without relying on the platform. The user will be exposed to continuous risk related to insolvency (credit risk), fraud risk, performance risk and proficiency risk from the platform "- we read.

The CSA will not apply securities laws to cryptographic exchanges where the underlying cryptographic component is not a security or derivative and cryptographic assets are immediately provided to you.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has broken slightly above the last high and made a new local high at the level of $9,130, but this breakout did not last long. The bear's reaction for a new high was to push the prices lower again and they have managed to hit the level of $8,405 on the Bitcoin way down. This level has been tested before and it is clear that the bulls will treat this level as an important short-term key support, so it is worth to keep an eye on the current situation on this market. Any violation of the level of $8,405 will lead to the sell-off extension towards the next technical support at $8,298 and below.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,362

WR2 - $9,728

WR1 - $9,214

Weekly Pivot - $8,735

WS1 - $8,034

WS2 - $7,406

WS3 - $6,911

Trading recommendations:

There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed at the level of $6,345, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $7,582 is not violated. Nevertheless, the larger timeframe trend is still down and all the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend until the level of $10,278 is cleary broken.

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Trading plan on EUR/USD for January 20, 2020.

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On Friday, EUR/USD closed the day and the week at the lowest end of the 1.1085 range.

Below that, however, there is an even more serious level of 1.0980.

Technically, the picture is telling us that there will most likely be a break down to 1.1085 and a move to 1.0980, but for now, the euro is holding higher.

What is the basis?

There was a lull in the market, as the Trump-China trade agreement was signed, there is no new trade wars, and the Trump-Iran tension has eased so far.

According to news from the United States, the week is very quiet.

The main news is the ECB's rate meeting on Thursday. It is very likely that the visible decline in the euro will be a bookmark for a new super-soft ECB statement. Let's look closely at this.

Sell euros from 1.1084.

Buy euros from 1.1180.

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We expect moderate demand for risky assets to continue this week (we expect EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs to increase this week)

World markets ended the week on a positive note, satisfied with the final signing of the US-China "first phase" trade agreement, as well as positive economic statistics from both America and China.

Although most experts believe that the trade "world" between the US and China will be in the nature of a hidden, powdery conflict, it still suits everyone, which means that the markets have prospects for maintaining demand for risky assets. And here, the statistics that were released last week from economic statistics from the "under heaven" and the United States are of great help.

On the other hand, Chinese data showed an acceptable growth rate in the fourth quarter and on an annualized basis of 1.5% and 6.0%, respectively. However, greater interest was caused by the volume of industrial production, which jumped by 6.9% against 6.2% in annual terms, by the way, while it was expected to decrease in growth to 5.9%. What is also important were the numbers and retail sales, which maintained growth at 8.0% amid an expected decline to 7.8%.

From US data, of course, we should single out the values of retail sales and the Philadelphia index of manufacturing activity, which were published on Thursday and showed respectively an increase of 0.7% from 0.1% for the previous reporting period and an increase to 17.0 points from 2.4 points.

Meanwhile, protective assets have come under pressure against the backdrop of these important data for the global economy, though not for such a long time. But this is more true for gold, which is in demand, primarily, as some alternative to the dollar among the countries-opponents of the USA, for example, in Russia. Nevertheless, a slight pullback supported the yields on the US Treasuries, the dollar against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

We believe that the coming week may turn out to be quite calm as a whole, despite the expected meeting of the ECB and the publication of important economic data from both the eurozone, Germany, and the United States.

Today, we do not expect much activity in the markets due to the weekend in America - Martin Luther King Day.

Forecast of the day:

This week, the EUR/USD pair may test the level of 1.1240 again if the ECB's final decision is unclear regarding the prospects of monetary policy and if the pair stands above the level of 1.1085.

The USD/JPY pair remains in a short-term upward trend. Thus, maintaining positive sentiment in the markets may stimulate the continuation of growth of the pair to 112.20, but for this to happen, it should stay above 109.75.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 20/01/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made a Pin Bar candlestick pattern around the level of 1.3101 where the technical resistance is located and then reversed towards the channel support. The lower channel boundary was located at the level of 1.3055 and it was broken swiftly as the bears continued the move lower. After the channel breakout was done, the price fell to the level of 1.2988 which is a part of a demand zone located between the levels of 1.2939 - 1.3017. Any violation of the level of 1.2939 will directly lead to the sell-off extension towards the level of 1.2904 and 1.2786. The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3247

WR2 - 1.3172

WR1 - 1.3080

Weekly Pivot - 1.3013

WS1 - 1.2913

WS2 - 1.2847

WS3 - 1.2749

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is up, so all downward market moves will be treated as local corrections in the uptrend. In order to reverse the trend from up to down in the longer term, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2756 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509.

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EUR/USD. Preview of the week: ZEW indices, ECB meeting and Davos forum

The euro-dollar pair for the final of the last trading week still went below 1.1100, completing trading at 1.1090. A strong bearish momentum, which was due to the general strengthening of the US currency. In anticipation of a long weekend (today, the United States is celebrating Martin Luther King Day), many traders took profits, and therefore the price movement became avalanche-like. Monday's Asian session turned out to be much calmer. The downward impulse died away, and the pair began to drift in the flat in anticipation of the next news drivers.

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It is worth noting that this week the main news for the pair will come from Europe. Key macroeconomic releases and the ECB January meeting will determine the pair's vector of movement, while the dollar will be content with secondary American statistics.

The macroeconomic calendar is practically empty on Monday for both the euro and the greenback. The US trading floors are closed, and only the German producer price index will be published during the European session. The Bundesbank's monthly report will also be published, but it can affect the dynamics of the pair only if the rhetoric of members of the German regulator is very different from the previous rhetoric of ECB members. Also today, the head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, will speak, but with a high degree of probability, the market will ignore this event. The fact is that she will deliver a solemn speech at a gala reception in Belgium. As a rule, officials do not raise serious topics during such events.

On Tuesday, January 21, all attention will be focused on the mood indexes in the business environment from the ZEW Institute. Both in Germany and in the whole eurozone, positive dynamics is expected. So, the German index last month for the first time since May last year out of the negative region, reaching 10.7 points. Experts are also optimistic in January. In their opinion, the figure will reach 15 points. The pan-European indicator in the same way left the territory of negative values in December, rising to 11 points. The January index should grow to 16.3 points. The European currency will receive support if the real numbers coincide with the forecast values.

In addition, the World Economic Forum kicks off in Davos on January 21, and runs until Friday, January 24. This event will bring together more than a hundred billionaires from 36 countries (in particular, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg and George Soros). In addition, Donald Trump is also expected to attend the forum, along with US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin. Their comments may affect the dynamics of the pair.

Only minor macroeconomic releases from the US in the real estate market will be published on Wednesday, January 22. We are talking about the housing price index and the volume of home sales in the secondary market. Both indicators should show positive dynamics, but they are unlikely to become catalysts for price movement.

But the main event of the week will take place on Thursday, January 23,: the ECB will hold its first meeting this year. Let me remind you that last week the minutes of the December meeting was published, which confirmed the expectant position of the regulator. Members of the central bank expressed cautious optimism about the latest macroeconomic reports (first of all, we are talking about restoring core inflation) and noted the weakening concern about foreign trade. And although the ECB has listed and continuing risks (for example, in the field of industrial production), traders drew attention to a rather "hawkish" wording. Regulator members said the ECB's monetary policy could be adjusted to avoid "unwanted side effects." A rather encouraging phrase, given the dynamics of inflationary processes in the eurozone.

According to many experts, the ECB will remain "cautious optimism" in January. After all, since the last meeting, the signing ceremony of the first phase of the trade transaction took place, and European inflation continued to grow. The general consumer price index in December reached 1.3% from the previous value of 1.0%. Core inflation also showed positive dynamics - the core index was at the same level as in November, that is, at around 1.3%. This is the strongest indicator growth over the past six months. In other words, members of the ECB have certain reasons for optimism.

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The final chord of the trading week will be PMI indices. If these releases follow the ZEW trajectory, the euro will receive additional support for its corrective growth. In general, experts expect a positive trend - especially in the provision of services. As for the manufacturing sector, minimal growth is forecasted here - indices will still remain below the key 50-point level. But the very fact of a positive trend can strengthen the position of the single currency.

The situation is still ambiguous from a technical point of view. To confirm the downward trend, the bears of the pair need to go below 1.1050 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands, which coincides with the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on D1). For EUR/USD bulls, the task is more complicated - they need to overcome the price level of 1.1160 so that the price is between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands, and the Ichimoku indicator forms a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal. In this case, they will have a chance to re-test the area of the 12th figure.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 20/01/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has broken out form the short-term ascending channel around the level of 1.1127 after the Shooting Star candlestick pattern had occurred around the level of 1.1162 (50% Fibonacci retracement as well). Since then the market has hit the key short-term technical support located at the level of 1.1085, but so far the bulls defended the level and the price has bounced slightly towards the level of 1.1106. Nevertheless, the momentum is still weak and negative and the market conditions are too far away to be called oversold yet, so if the bulls will not bounce harder towards the technical resistance located at the level of 1.1127, then the odds for the down move are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1216

WR2 - 1.1193

WR1 - 1.1130

Weekly Pivot - 1.1046

WS1 - 1.1042

WS2 - 1.1019

WS3 - 1.0955

Trading recommendations:

Not much has changed since the last week in a bigger perspective. Still, the best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.1040 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 01/20/2020 and a trading recommendation

Friday's macroeconomic reporting continued to delight sellers, so after weak data on inflation and GDP, retail sales came out, which, instead of rising to 2.6%, showed a spectacular dive into the 0.9% zone, and previous data was revised from 1.0 % to 0.8%. The pound quickly fell due to such indicators, showing increased volatility, which was lacking in recent days. In turn, support for the US dollar was provided by data from the United States, where the volume of construction of new houses for December showed some unrealistic indicators of 16.9%, compared with 2.6% a year earlier.

Today, in terms of macroeconomic reporting, we do not have statistics worth paying attention to, nor is today a day off in the United States where Martin Luther King Day is celebrated. Thus, the trading volume can be reduced, it is worth considering this in the trade.

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In terms of technical analysis, we see an impulsive downward movement with an amplitude of more than 110 points, where the quotation quickly fell to the area of the psychological level of 1.3000. In fact, we again find ourselves at the fulcrum, with which it all began a week earlier. This market step makes it clear to us that the downward interest set in the first days of January is still preserved, and the level of 1.3000 is just one of the points of temporary rearrangements.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, we see that the peculiar spring at the peak of the five-month course has strongly compressed, which may signal an upcoming acceleration of volatility. We should not forget that the global trend is still downward.

It is likely to assume that sellers will try to take advantage of the situation in terms of the breakout of the control psychological level of 1.3000, but as history has shown, this level has quite large fluctuation limits, so you should not make hasty actions. The most notable values are on the history, in the area of 1.2955-1.2950, it is worth paying attention to them.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- Long positions, we consider in case of price consolidation higher than 1.3001.

- Short positions, we consider in case of price consolidation lower than 1.2955-1.2950.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that due to the recent impulsive move, as well as the return of the price to the psychological level of 1.3000, the indicators have unanimously turned in a downward direction.

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Indicator analysis: Daily review on GBP/USD for January 20, 2020

The pair moved up on Friday and reached the resistance line 1.3119, presented in a red dotted line. After that, the price quickly went down. Strong calendar news is not expected today. Perhaps there is a continuation of work down to the support line 1.2983 presented in a red bold line.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

As the price moves down today, it can test the support line 1.2983, presented in a red bold line. Only after that can it start moving up to the target of 1.3080, the pullback level of 38.2% presented in a red dashed line. If this line is reached, the market can continue to work up with the target and the upper fractal 1.3119.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may start to move up.

A downward scenario is unlikely but quite possible. That is, from the resistance line 1.2983, presented in a red bold line, continue to work down with the target 1.2954, the lower fractal in a red dashed line.

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Indicator analysis: Daily review on EUR / USD for January 20, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

In order to continue its upward movement for this day, the price must overcome the resistance line 1.1103, presented in a white bold line. Only in this case can the market continue to move upward with the target 1.1146, the retracement level of 38.2% presented in a blue dashed line. Upon reaching this line, the next goal will be at 1.1164, the pullback level of 50.0% presented in a blue dashed line.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

An upward trend is possible today.

An unlikely but quite possible scenario is from the lower fractal 1.1087, presented in a blue dashed line, the price goes down to a pullback level of 76.4% equivalent to 1.1043 presented in a red dashed line.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for January 20 - 2020

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GBP/JPY is becoming tricky as more alternate counts now is possible. The rally to 144.53 could be the completion of an time-extended b-wave correction and if this is the case, then more downside progress should be expected towards 139.25.

It could be wave i of a new impulsive rally (less likely at this point). If this count is to return to top-priority, then we need for GBP/JPY to break back above resistance at 144.53.

R3: 144.53

R2: 143.91

R2: 143.71

Pivot: 143.36

S1: 143.09

S2: 142.90

S3: 142.65

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 143.20 was hit for a small loss of 40 pips. We will sell GBP at 143.65 with at 144.60 stop.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 20 - 2020

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EUR/JPY corrected to a low of 122.04 (we expected a corrective dip to 122.15) before starting to turn higher again towards the ideal target near 123.84. In the short-term, a break above minor resistance at 122.44 will indicate more upside pressure towards 122.88 on the way higher to 123.35 and 123.84.

Only an unexpected break below support at 122.04 will call for an extended decline towards 121.46 and possibly lower to 120.25.

R3: 123.35

R2: 122.93

R1: 122.43

Pivot: 122.27

S1: 122.18

S2: 122.04

S3: 121.84

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 122.40 was hit for a small profit of 15 pips. We will re-but EUR here at 122.27 with a stop at 122.00.

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EUR/USD IPDA 60 Days Premium-Discount Array For Jan 20, 2020

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After testing the Fair Value Gap at 4, Hour Chart Fiber looks like moving in the Market Maker SELL Model in Low Resistance Liquidity Run condition. It seems this pair will try to attack the Daily Chart SELL Side Liquidity Pool @ 1.1066 but firstly this pair must be breakout and close bellow the 1.1085 and as long they do not break out and close above the Daily Chart BUY Side Liquidity Pool 1.1173 the EUR/USD still continue its down movement.

So the bias from EUR/USD base Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) 60 Days is bearish.

(Disclaimer)

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GBP/USD IPDA 60 Days Premium-Discount Array For Jan 20, 2020

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It seems Cable is on the way to the Daily Chart SELL Side Liquidity Pool at 1.2904. However, first this pair must break out and close bellow the Daily Chart SELL Side Liquidity Pool 1.2953 as long the GBP/USD will not break out and close above the 4 Hour Chart BUY Side Liqudity Pool 1.3118 then Cable still moving in a Market Maker SELL Side Mode in Low Resistance Liquidity Run condition.

For today GBP/USD bias base Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) still bearish.

(Disclaimer)

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Forecast for EUR/USD on 1/20/2020

EUR/USD

Good US construction performance came out on Friday last week: 1.608 million y/y were pledged in December against new expectations of 1.38 million y/y - this is the highest figure since January 2007; 1.42 million were issued for new construction permits y/y (forecast was 1.47 million). Industrial production failed - the December decline was -0.3% versus the expected 0.0%, but optimistic investors found positive in the index structure - production in the manufacturing industry increased by 0.2% against the forecast of -0.2%. As a result, the dollar index grew by 0.33% while the euro lost 45 points.

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On the daily chart of the pair, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator penetrated into the negative trend zone. An important support is the 1.1074 level - the area of the Fibonacci line of 123.6% and the line of MACD. Overcoming support will open an equally important goal at 1.1034 - an embedded price channel line, overcoming of which, in turn, opens the way for pulling down the euro in a medium-term..

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On the four-hour chart, the MACD blue indicator line is turning down, the price is also under the line of balance. Marlin consolidated in the decline zone.

It is a national holiday in the US today, and there are also no important events expected in the euro area. A calm day (consolidation) is expected on the market before tomorrow's attempt to overcome technical support (1.1074).

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Forecast for GBP/USD on 1/20/2020

GBP/USD

On Friday, the British pound followed the market after the release of optimistic US data: 1.608 million y/y new homes were pledged in December against expectations of 1.38 million y/y - this is the highest figure since January 2007. On the daily chart, the price sharply returned under the balance indicator line (red). The Marlin oscillator moved down in front of the boundary with the growth zone. The trend has become completely downward. We are waiting for the British pound at the level of the first target 1.2820 (Fibonacci level 138.2%) after consolidation under the Fibonacci level 161.8% (1.2968). Furthermore, it is likely to decrease to the level of 123.6% at the price of 1.2730.

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On a four-hour chart, the price has been fixed under the lines of balance and MACD, the Marlin oscillator penetrates into the decline zone. There is also a declining trend for all indicators here.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on 1/20/2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen successfully completed key resistance on Friday: the triangle of convergence of the two lines of price channels, the Fibonacci reaction line of 110.0%. Now, if the levels are reached (the Friday high), the yen will go to conquer the target range of 110.83/98 near the Fibonacci level of 123.6%. Before such an expected attack, the price may get a little hooked up to the Fibonacci level of 100.0% (109.74), to which the MACD line also approached.

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On the four-hour chart, the MACDline approaches the level of 109.74, it will strengthen the significance of the level.

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Forecast for USD/CAD on 1/20/2020

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar is consolidating its sixth session at a correction level of 23.6% of the movement from November 20 to December 31. Today in the Asian session, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator crossed the boundary of the growth territory, which indicates the possible completion of the observed consolidation. The immediate growth target is the Fibonacci level of 50.0% at the price of 1.3138. It opens the second target for the Fibonacci level of 61.8% at the price of 1.3183, then 1.3237 at the correction level of 76.4%, which coincides with the low on June 10, 2019.

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On the H4 chart, the price is struggling with the resistance of the balance indicator line and the signal line of the Marlin oscillator at this very moment is trying to overcome the boundary with the growth territory. We believe that this struggle will be on the side of a positive trend and we will see the price at the target level 1.3237 in the future for several days.

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Control zones of EURUSD 01/20/2020

The downward movement on the pair is a medium-term impulse. This makes it possible to keep sales open from WCZ 1/2 1.1164-1.1157 to the December low. This goal is medium-term, so part of the position can be consolidated after updating the January low. This is necessary in case of the appearance of large demand after an extreme test and the formation of a correctional upward model.

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The next target after updating the January low and consolidating below it will be the WCZ 1/2 1.1010-1.1003. These are the levels for possible sales commits that have been converted to breakeven.

An alternative model will be developed if the closing of trading on Monday occurs above the opening after updating the monthly low. This will allow you to create a False Breakdown pattern and Absorption of the session level. In this case, corrective purchases will come to the fore.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs on January 20

Forecast for January 20:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1131, 1.1115, 1.1102, 1.1079, 1.1064 and 1.1031. Here, the price canceled the development of the upward structure from January 10 and at the moment, we are defining key targets from the downward structure on January 16. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1079 - 1.1064. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the potential target is 1.1031. We expect a pullback to the top from this level.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 1.1102 - 1.1159. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1131. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of January 16

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1102 Take profit: 1.1113

Buy: 1.1116 Take profit: 1.1130

Sell: 1.1078 Take profit: 1.1065

Sell: 1.1063 Take profit: 1.1034

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3243, 1.3178, 1.3126, 1.3082, 1.2994 and 1.2953. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of January 14. At the moment, the price is close to its cancellation. In this case, a breakdown of 1.2994 is needed, also in this case, the first goal is 1.2953. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.3082 - 1.3126. The breakdown of the latter value will allow us to expect movement to the level of 1.3178. Price consolidation is near this value. For the potential level for the top, we consider the level of 1.3243. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of January 14, the stage of deep correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3082 Take profit: 1.3124

Buy: 1.3127 Take profit: 1.3176

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 1.2992 Take profit: 1.2954

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9778, 0.9758, 0.9725, 0.9699, 0.9668, 0.9654, 0.9632 and 0.9610. Here, the price forms the expressed initial conditions for the top of January 16. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9700. In this case, the target is 0.9725. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9725 will lead to pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.9758. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9778. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9668 - 0.9654. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9632. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of January 16

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9700 Take profit: 0.9725

Buy : 0.9727 Take profit: 0.9756

Sell: 0.9667 Take profit: 0.9655

Sell: 0.9652 Take profit: 0.9635

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 111.38, 110.78, 110.39, 109.81, 109.58 and 109.23. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of January 8. At the moment, we expect to reach the level of 110.39. The breakdown of which will allow us to count on movement to the level of 110.78. Price consolidation is near this value. The breakdown of the level of 110.80 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 111.38.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 109.81 - 109.58. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 109.23. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend: the upward cycle of January 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.40 Take profit: 110.76

Buy : 110.80 Take profit: 111.35

Sell: 109.80 Take profit: 109.58

Sell: 109.55 Take profit: 109.25

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3157, 1.3126, 1.3112, 1.3090, 1.3062, 1.3040 and 1.3015. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of January 7. The continuation of the movement to the top is except after the breakdown of the level of 1.3090. In this case, the target is 1.3112. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3112 - 1.3126. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3157. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation are possible in the range of 1.3040 - 1.3015. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the potential target is 1.2988.

The main trend is the upward cycle of January 7, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3090 Take profit: 1.3112

Buy : 1.3126 Take profit: 1.3155

Sell: 1.3038 Take profit: 1.3017

Sell: 1.3013 Take profit: 1.2990

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6972, 0.6955, 0.6933, 0.6915, 0.6887, 0.6871, 0.6851, 0.6827 and 0.6793. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of January 9. At the moment, the price is close to the cancellation of this structure, which requires a breakdown of the level of 0.6871. In this case, the first target is 0.6851. Short-term movement to the top is expected in the range of 0.6915 - 0.6933. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.6955. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6972. Upon reaching this value, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of January 9, the stage of deep correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6915 Take profit: 0.6930

Buy: 0.6935 Take profit: 0.6955

Sell : 0.6870 Take profit : 0.6852

Sell: 0.6850 Take profit: 0.6828

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 123.89, 123.32, 123.06, 122.68, 122.09, 121.80 and 121.47. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of January 8. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 122.68. In this case, the first target is 123.06. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 123.06 - 123.32 . The breakdown of the level of 123.35 will lead to a movement to a potential target - 123.89, from this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 122.09 - 121.80. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 121.47. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward cycle of January 8, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 122.70 Take profit: 123.05

Buy: 123.06 Take profit: 123.30

Sell: 122.07 Take profit: 121.84

Sell: 121.80 Take profit: 121.50

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 146.41, 145.55, 144.93, 144.53, 143.98, 143.07, 142.59 and 142.11. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of January 3. At the moment, the price is in correction. The resumption of movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 144.00. In this case, the first goal is 144.53. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 144.53 - 144.93. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 145.55, and near which, we expect consolidation. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 146.41, from which we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 143.07 - 142.59. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the potential target is 142.11.

The main trend is the upward structure of January 3, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 144.00 Take profit: 144.51

Buy: 144.53 Take profit: 144.91

Sell: 143.05 Take profit: 142.65

Sell: 142.54 Take profit: 142.11

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Control zones of AUDUSD 01/20/2020

Work in the downward direction is still a priority, since the pair could not gain a foothold above the WCZ 1/2 0.6916-0.6910. This makes it possible to keep a short position open after the test of the specified zone. The first target of the fall is WCZ 1/2 0.6942-0.6836. Upon its achievement, a partial consolidation of the sale will be required, and the remaining part can be transferred to breakeven in case the fall continues.

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The downward movement is still a medium-term impulse, therefore, the goals for the fall should be considered for one to two weeks. An important support zone will be the monthly control zone of January located below the level of 0.6819.

It's better not to consider options with buying a tool, as they will not be profitable from current levels. In the event of updating the January low and consolidating below it, the next fall target will be the December extremum formed at the level of 0.6800.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones of USDJPY 1/20/2020

Last week's movement made it possible for a local accumulation zone to form. This happened within the average monthly move, which indicates the presence of limit sell orders. Purchases from current levels are not profitable, since the probability of closing the trade in January is above the zone of the monthly move below 30%. A model has not yet been formed for selling, which indicates the need to switch to standby mode.

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Keeping part of the purchases opened at the beginning of this month is the optimal strategy, since the probability of absorption of the latest growth from current levels is below 20%.

To enter a short position requires the formation of an absorption pattern at the daily level. Closing of trading on Monday should occur below the low of last week. This will indicate the appearance of a major offer from significant market players. Work in the downward direction is more profitable, since the monthly range of the average stroke has already been overcome by the pair....

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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EUR/USD. Senate will consider Trump impeachment next week. New evidence in the case

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Despite the fact that absolutely everyone understands that the likelihood of Donald Trump being removed from his post is negligible, the impeachment case does not stop and the Democrats are ready to go to the end. We already said earlier that the only chance to entice Republican senators to their side is to provide the Senate with such evidence of Trump's guilt that cannot be interpreted in two ways, which cannot be refuted. Only in this case can one count on some kind of support from the Republicans in the Senate and hopes that the total number of votes (at least 67 out of 100 is required) is enough to impeach Trump. The latest information on this topic is as follows. Democrats took a break almost one month after Congress officially voted "for" the impeachment of Trump. This month was spent collecting new evidence and searching for new witnesses. And it cannot be said that the Democrats, led by Lower House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, were unable to collect anything new. "Time was on our side, and this allowed us to collect additional evidence incriminating the president," the politician said. The new documents are presented in a copy of a letter from U.S. President Rudolph Giuliani's personal lawyer, which clearly confirms that Donald Trump was aware of Giuliani's attempts to compromise his main rival in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden. Moreover, Trump personally approved the meeting of Giuliani with Volodymyr Zelensky. The documents also contain a copy of a letter from Giuliani, which was sent to Zelensky, in which the lawyer demands a meeting on May 13 or 14. Earlier, Republicans and Trump himself have repeatedly stated that the US president was completely ignorant of the actions of his personal lawyer. However, new documents indicate the opposite. In addition, there is evidence of Lev Parnas, an American businessman and associate of Giuliani, who was detained and initially refused to participate in the case, but later changed his mind. According to the U.S. intelligence committee, Parnas prepared handwritten notes that seem to be directly related to the presidential scheme aimed at forcing Ukraine to announce investigations useful for his re-election campaign. One of these notes was made public and it reads: 1) Force Zelensky to announce the beginning of the investigation of the Biden case; 2) start negotiations with Zelensky without Pinchuk and Kolomoisky. The documents also provide information that Parnas and Giuliani were monitoring the US ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch, to secure her resignation. In general, the case is overgrown with new details and, it seems, Trump is really guilty of everything that he is accused of. Despite the Democrats' furious desire to force Trump to leave his post, one should also be clearly aware that the impeachment procedure does not begin "out of the blue", simply because of personal hostility towards the US president, as in virtually any other country, there are several political forces that constantly compete among themselves for power. Thus, formal impeachments can be declared to any president, because he always has opposition or a banal list of dissatisfaction with his policy. In the Trump case, there are very serious charges and very high-profile evidence. Thus, more and more ordinary people are inclined to believe that Trump is really guilty. Another thing is that Trump's associates in the Republican Party will decide his fate, of which there is a larger number in the Senate ...

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