Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 21, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price will move down, with the first target of 1.2874 - a pullback level of 14.6% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price may begin to pull back down.

The first lower target of 1.2874 is a pullback level of 14.6% (blue dashed line). If it is successful, the downward movement will continue with the target of 1.2804 which is a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dashed line).

An unlikely scenario is an upward movement with a target of 1.3167 - a pullback level of 50.0% (yellow dashed line).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on October 21. Pound is waiting for the next series of the "soap opera" called Brexit

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Boris Johnson's attempt to hold a vote in the House of Commons over his deal has failed last Saturday. The matter did not even reach the very vote, which is again scheduled for today. Therefore, the volatility of the pound is unlikely to be high until any news in this direction appears. Nothing has seriously changed from a technical point of view. A break and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2916 will lead the pair to new local highs around 1.2988, 1.3037 and 1.3074, where I recommend profit taking. Any negative background will put pressure on GBP/USD, so only the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2833 will be a signal to buy the pound. In a different scenario, the pair will fall to a support of 1.2833, long positions can be returned to rebound from the lows of 1.2757 and 1.2664.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Sellers need bad Brexit news, and the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2916 will be an additional signal to sell the pound. However, the more important task of the bears today is to return and consolidate the pair below the support of 1.2833, which will push the pound to the lows of 1.2757 and 1.2664, where I recommend profit taking. However, such a downward movement will be possible only if Labour and Tory again do not allow Johnson to hold a vote on his deal, and even worse if the vote proves to be a failure. In case the pound further grows above the resistance of 1.2916, you can look at short positions after testing the highs of 1.2988, on a false breakout, or on a rebound from 1.3074.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the maintenance of a bullish trend.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.2845 may put pressure on the pair. Growth will be limited by the upper level at 1.2970.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for October 21. The opposition in the British Parliament has won over Boris Johnson once

EUR / USD

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Friday, October 18, ended for the EUR / USD pair with an increase of 45 basis points and a successful attempt to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci level. Thus, the first wave in the new upward trend section continues to be built despite the fact that there was no important news for the euro-dollar pair during the final period of last week. In addition, the pair has good prospects for a further increase to the level of 61.8%, although from the point of view of wave analysis, the construction of a correctional wave b is expected.

Fundamental component:

The fundamental background for the EUR / USD pair remains weak, ambiguous, and sometimes simply absent. From what side you do not look, but it is definitely not in favor of the euro. At the end of last week and most of the current half, no news and reports from the European Union are expected at all. However, the euro is growing. One gets the impression that the currency market simply wins back the earlier losses of the euro, being ready to resume massive sales of the EU currency at any time. Despite this, all these are reflections and assumptions, nothing more. This week, Thursday, markets will receive a whole package of economic reports and news. Moreover, a meeting of the ECB will be held, at which the rate may be lowered again, although the probability of this is not high. Eurozone and US business activity indices will be released, and changes in the volume of orders for durable goods in the United States. Until Thursday, the news plan will be completely calm.

Purchase goals:

1.1208 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.1286 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.0879 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair continues to build a new upward set of waves. An unsuccessful attempt to break the level of 1.1208 may lead to a departure of quotes from the reached highs and the transition of the instrument to the construction of wave b. On the contrary, a successful attempt will show the intention of the markets to continue to buy the instrument with targets located near the calculated level of 1.1208, which corresponds to 76.4% Fibonacci.

GBP / USD

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On October 18, the GBP / USD pair gained 85 more basis points and "pricked" the Fibonacci level of 127.2% once again. The second attempt to break through this level also failed, which suggests the readiness of the instrument once again for the transition to the construction of a downward wave or even a set of waves. The most interesting thing for the pair happened on Saturday, when the Lower House of the British Parliament rejected the government's deal with the European Union again. Thus, Brexit has every chance of being rescheduled for a later date. However, this is negative for the pound, which in recent weeks has risen on expectations of an agreement between the EU and Britain.

Fundamental component:

The news background for the pound-dollar pair continues to consist about Brexit only and everything connected with it. According to recent reports, the British Parliament refused to ratify the agreement reached at the EU summit between Boris Johnson and Donald Tusk, simultaneously obliging the Prime Minister to ask the EU for a new postponement. However, the saga is clearly not yet complete and can turn into a completely different course of events at any moment. Thus, the markets continue to keep a "finger on the pulse" and closely monitor any news from Downing Street 10. It is no secret that Boris Johnson is not going to give up and will continue to try to leave the EU until October 31 in any scenario, which he does not once declared at a time when Parliament had not yet obliged him to strictly follow the plan for concluding a deal with Brussels. In this way, you can expect anything from the Prime Minister. Consequently, Brexit still has a whole range of possible options, each of which can send the pound up or down another few hundred points.

Sales goals:

1.2191 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2986 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.3202 - 161.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound / dollar instrument continues to build an upward trend. However, an unsuccessful attempt to break the level of 1.2986 indicates that the instrument is ready to decline. Since the news background is now at its most importance, the continuation or completion of the construction of wave 3 or B will depend on it. The breakdown of the level of 1.2986 can be regarded as a signal to buy.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 21, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the market may start pullback downward, with the target of 1.1132 - a pullback level of 14.6% (red dotted line). If successful, it will continue to the next lower target of 1.1106 which is a pullback level of 23.6% (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, a downward movement is possible.

The lower target of 1.1132 is the pullback level of 14.6% (red dashed line).

The next lower target of 1.1106 is a pullback level of 23.6% (red dashed line).

An unlikely scenario is an upward movement towards the target of 1.1209 - a pullback level of 61.8% (blue dashed line).

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 21/10/2019

Crypto Industry News:

G20 global finance chiefs agree that global stablecoins pose a number of risks associated with public policy and regulatory risk.

On October 18, Reuters reported that the G20, an international forum for governments and central bank governors from 19 countries and the European Union, called on the International Monetary Fund to examine the various macroeconomic effects of global stablecoins, including the issue of monetary sovereignty in member countries.

According to the report, the nations agreed that global acceptance of Stablecoins would cause a number of serious threats to public order and regulation.

"Such threats, including in particular those related to money laundering, illegal financing and consumer and investor protection, must be assessed and properly addressed before implementing these projects," say G20 ministers.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the G20 summit will begin with a debate on stablecoin regulations - following proposals from global regulators such as the Financial Stability Board and the Task Force on Money Laundering.

"Some emerging countries are concerned about what could happen, stablecoins supported by a huge customer base have become widely used around the world [...] But this is not just a problem for emerging economies. This may have a broader impact on monetary policy and financial system stability, "he said.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair is still trading out of the main ascending channel and below the short-term trendline resistance. Currently, bulls are trying to break through the trendline around the level of $173.44 and even manage to make a spike above the trendline with a top at the level of $175.76. Will that be enough to continue a rally higher or is it just another false breakout? The next few hours might give the answer to market participants. Please keep an eye at the level of $163.98 because it is the key short term technical support for bulls.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $203.55

WR2 - $195.01

WR1 - $184.09

Weekly Pivot - $175.68

WS1 - $163.10

WS2 - $154.16

WS3 - $142.73

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on October 21. Further euro growth will depend on Brexit news

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Saturday's vote on Brexit failed, and the whole emphasis is shifted to today's attempt. The lack of important fundamental statistics will also maintain low volatility in the market until the voting results appear. To continue the growth of the euro, it is required to keep the level of 1.1151 in the first half of the day, as well as the formation of a false breakout on it, which will update the highs in the areas of 1.1189 and 1.1226, where I recommend taking profits. However, without good news, this is unlikely to succeed. Johnson's next unsuccessful attempt to advance his deal could put pressure on the pair. Therefore, in the event of a decline to the level of 1.1151 in the first half of the day, you can count on purchases from a low of 1.1123, where the moving average also passes, as well as a rebound from the larger support of 1.1090

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The main task of the bears today will be the return of the pair to the support level of 1.1151, which will increase pressure on the euro, and will lead to lows in the areas of 1.1123 and 1.1090, where I recommend profit taking. However, all this can be expected only after the news about the next failure of Boris Johnson, or the failure of the vote on the deal. In the EUR/USD growth scenario, it is necessary to pay attention to the divergence, which is now being formed on the MACD indicator. A test of resistance at 1.1189 with confirmation of divergence will be a clear signal to open short positions. You can sell immediately for a rebound even higher, from a high of 1.1226.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a further increase in the euro.

Bollinger bands

In the event of a euro decline scenario, the lower boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1135 will provide support. Growth will be limited by the upper level in the area of 1.1175.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brexit's Fate: Solomon's decision of deputies, three letters from Johnson and Operation Yellowhammer

A political show called Brexit continues. Deputies of the House of Commons on Saturday could not put an end to the three-year epic of the negotiation process between London and Brussels: according to the results of the vote, the situation remained in limbo. Many journalists have already managed to "put an end" to the soft Brexit scenario, although in my opinion it's too early to draw such conclusions.

The pound's first reaction to Saturday's events was negative, but not catastrophic. The GBP/USD pair opened the trading week with just a 30-pound downward gap, but it returned to the 29th figure at the end of the Asian session. This suggests that traders did not interpret what was happening as a "failure", taking a wait-and-see attitude on the eve of the key events of this week.

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In general, we can admit that Johnson's blitzkrieg has failed, and now the issue of approving the deal is again moving into a longer-lasting phase. Traders went through all this: at the end of last year, Theresa May agreed on a deal with the EU in the same way, but could not convince Parliament to support this deal, despite some compromises from Brussels. At first glance, Johnson is now repeating the path of the previous prime minister. However, these situations cannot be blindly compared, projecting the political failure of Theresa May with the possible failure of Boris Johnson. Both de jure and de facto circumstances are significantly different.

Let me remind you that in January of this year, the Lower House of the British Parliament rejected the deal proposed by May: only 202 deputies voted in favor, while 432 MPs voted against. The deal was rejected with a difference of 230 votes, which, by the way, was the largest defeat of the British prime minister in Parliament over the past almost one hundred years. But this is not a matter of records or counter-records: the important thing is that at that time the British Parliament actually turned away from Brexit's further fate (May initiated the postponement), while now the deputies are ardent opponents of the "hard" scenario, legislatively regulating the government's next steps in this matter.

By and large, the deputies of the House of Commons on Saturday adopted a "Solomon decision": on the one hand, they did not approve the proposed deal, but on the other hand they did not formally reject it. Instead, they adopted Oliver Letwin's amendment, which prohibits voting on a deal until British law is "ready" for an orderly exit from the European Union. In other words, British MPs must vote for laws to replace EU law with English law: MPs supported the initiative with 322 votes to 306. At the same time, MPs ordered Johnson to ask Brussels to postpone Brexit until the beginning of next year.

The British prime minister really appealed to the EU leadership, formally fulfilling the requirements of the law. However, he sent to Brussels not one appeal, but three. He did not sign the first letter (although it is certified by the government office): this is the so-called "compulsory" appeal for a deferment. Johnson signed the second letter, and called it a "personal request." This appeal says that the Cabinet of Ministers and he personally considers the delay of Brexit a mistake. At the same time, he assures his European colleagues that the government will do everything to conduct an agreed deal through Parliament, having implemented Brexit by October 31. The third note, as it were, places "all the dots on i": it explains that the first letter was sent as an execution of the law, while the position of the government is reflected in the second appeal. Moreover, according to the British press, Johnson phoned almost all European leaders and stated that the request for a postponement is de facto not his request, but the deputies of the House of Commons.

The logic of such maneuvers is obvious: Johnson wants to get rejected by Brussels, thereby pushing the Parliament to approve the deal, on the principle that "a bad world is better than a good war". For the same purpose, an emergency action plan called "Yellowhammer" was launched on Downing Street, which was developed in case of withdrawal from the EU without a deal. An emergency government meeting was held in connection with the "increased risk of the implementation of a hard Brexit." In other words, Boris Johnson returned to the tactics of escalating the situation in order to persuade as many deputies as possible in favor of approving the deal. Theresa May also used a similar strategy, although some Labour are now ready to support the prime minister, which was not the case with May.

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It is worth noting that the pound is holding at a given height and for another reason - according to British and European journalists, Brussels is ready to grant a respite to Brexit even on the basis of Johnson's "formal" appeal. That is, in fact, now the fork in events consists of two options: either London has time to adopt the corresponding package of laws and approves the deal, or Europe again extends the negotiation process.

The British prime minister assured that the cabinet would submit to the Parliament all the bills referred to in the Letwin Amendment on Tuesday (according to other sources, even today, on Monday). But there are pitfalls: the fact is that MPs can make amendments to the aforementioned laws, the approval of which can prolong the epic with Brexit for a few more months. For example, Laborites have recently been actively lobbying for the idea of a referendum on the proposed deal. In addition, it is possible that the opposition will put forward a vote of no confidence in the government, which will lead to early elections. If at least one of these issues is met by Parliament, a delay in Brexit will be inevitable.

Thus, in the coming days, the GBP/USD volatility storm will resume. If Johnson nevertheless "pushes" the deal in Parliament, the price will jump by several figures. Otherwise, a significant pullback is expected for the pair, to the area of 24-25 figures.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 21/10/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Computer scientist and CEO of WeWork South Africa, Stafford Masie, said Bitcoin will change the future of humanity more than any other technological innovation.

In a speech at the SingularityU South Africa Masie Summit - formerly CEO of Google Africa - he said that the exchange of Bitcoin value without intermediaries is the greatest gift that humanity has ever received technologically.

He argued that although the cryptocurrency wallet is "misunderstood, misused, misrepresented and perceived as complicated," it will revolutionize global trade. He continued that his main potential was not developed and already highly digitized economies, nor in cash-dominated informal economies, but what he called "third economies" in which barter systems still dominate:

"The third economy is an economy where people do not have access to electronic forms of value or cash distribution [...] Think about people who live two hours outside of Shanghai, the central coast of China. They will use Bitcoins to trade and will unblock international transactions outside existing structures in a way you and I can't imagine, "he said.

Masie also tried to resolve basic misunderstandings about Bitcoin, such as the alleged possibility of hacking - emphasizing that "it is stock exchanges that can be hacked, not Bitcoin." By praising decentralization, Masie summarized the development of technology corporations as a breakthrough for global markets:

"Combined, the net asset value of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, and Microsoft represents the same value as the combined S&P 500 companies, and this is remarkable because we have never seen such a concentration of wealth in history. Combined, these companies have a value equal to product rates gross national in some countries ".

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has bounced to the level of $8,255 after the short-term trendline resistance had been violated during the weekend. The pair have been dangerously close to the key technical support and wave (A) bottom after the failed rally above the 61% Fibonacci retracement, but now the bulls are regaining the control over the market. The immediate support is seen at the level of $8,048 and the next technical resistance is seen at the level of $8,474.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,074

WR2 - $8,707

WR1 - $8,444

Weekly Pivot - $8,103

WS1 - $7,849

WS2 - $7,474

WS3 - $7,245

Trading Recommendations:

Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for October 21 - 2019

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Primer Minister Boris Johnson negotiated a Brexit deal last week but there was no voting for or against it on Saturday. Maybe we will see a vote today in the UK parliament. Nevertheless, it seems that its outcome is unlikely to affect the pound sterling. So, the British currency may be quite volatile soon. The pound sterling could be hit short-term for a dip in GBP/JPY towards strong short-term support at 135.67 before the next impulsive rally towards 144.98 as the next minor upside target.

R3: 142.26

R2: 141.50

R1: 140.08

Pivot: 139.69

S1: 138.64

S2: 137.84

S3: 137.21

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a GBP-buying opportunity near 135.75

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 21/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has retraced all the pullback down to the level of 1.2783 and is currently testing the technical resistance at the level of 1.2988. This level was made after the big Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made last week in overbought market conditions. This time, global investors can see a negative divergence between the price and the momentum as indicated by the RSI. Any violation of the level of 1.2865 will likely lead to another leg down to the level of 1.2783 again and even a slide towards the level of 1.2705. The key technical support is still located at the level of 1.2561. The larger timeframe trend remains bearish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3651

WR2 - 1.3325

WR1 - 1.3193

Weekly Pivot - 1.2842

WS1 - 1.2723

WS2 - 1.2355

WS3 - 1.2252

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2999 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 21 - 2019

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There is still the possibility of a short-term correction closer to 119.87 before the next impulsive rally pushes EUR/JPY higher towards the next upside target near 124.64.

In the longer term, we remain bullish as the 11-year triangle consolidation completed with the text of 115.87 on September 2. This also mean that wave [C] now is in motion. If wave [C] becomes equal in length to wave [A], a rally to 196.88 looks likely over the coming years.

R3: 122.01

R2: 121.50

R1: 121.00

Pivot: 120.64

S1: 120.25

S2: 119.87

S3: 119.10

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 with our stop placed at 119.00

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Control zones NZDUSD 10/21/19

The closing of last week's trading occurred above the average move. This makes it possible to get a better price. The probability of a return to the upper boundary of the average course of the last week 0.6357 is 90%, which makes it possible to buy an instrument after correction.

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Purchases from the current levels are not profitable. Therefore, the formation of a correctional model is required. After the formation of a local maximum of the current week, it is necessary to build a control zone and place a limit buy order.

An alternative growth model is being formed. The growth target is the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 0.6435-0.6429. Testing this zone will allow you to consolidate the next part of a long position and consider sales after the formation of the pattern of "false breakdown". This will allow working to return to the average weekly move at the level of 0.6357.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 21/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pairs have made another higher high at the level of 1.1170 after breaking out of the ascending channel. The bulls have managed to hit the technical resistance located at the level of 1.1167 and are currently testing it in very overbought market conditions. The momentum remains strong and positive, so there is still a chance for another leg up after the correction is completed. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1109 and the key technical support is still located at the level of 1.1091.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1435

WR2 - 1.1300

WR1 - 1.1250

Weekly Pivot - 1.1120

WS1 - 1.1063

WS2 - 1.0981

WS3 - 1.0893

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0999 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, October 21, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German Buba Monthly Report and German PPI m/m. The US will not publish any economic data today, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1180. Strong Resistance: 1.1174. Original Resistance: 1.1163. Inner Sell Area: 1.1152. Target Inner Area: 1.1126. Inner Buy Area: 1.1100. Original Support: 1.1089. Strong Support: 1.1078. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1072. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, October 21, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the All Industries Activity m/m and Trade Balance, while the US will not release any economic reports today. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 108.94. Resistance. 2: 108.73. Resistance. 1: 108.51. Support. 1: 108.25. Support. 2: 108.04. Support. 3: 107.82. (Disclaimer)

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Control zones GBPUSD 10/21/19

Last week's upward movement made it possible for the pair to go beyond the average weekly move. This indicates an increase in the probability of the formation of a correctional model. The probability of a return to the level of 1.2791 is 90%, so purchases from current levels are not profitable. It is worth noting that this month the pair is already trading outside the monthly average move. This suggests that the Bank of England is interested in the growth of the national currency.

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Work in the upward direction is a priority, therefore, any trades against the trend should have a clearly limited range and quickly translate into breakeven. Trades in the direction of a correction are possible, since the pair is trading outside the monthly control zone.

An alternative model will be developed if growth does not stop and none of the minor control zones is broken. In this case, a significant monthly extremum test will be required. The nearest high was formed in May of this year and is at the level of 1.3169.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 21, 2019

EUR/USD

The euro exceeded the closest target level of 1.1155 at the Fibonacci level of 110.0% on Friday, probably on the optimism of investors on a new EU deal with the British prime minister about more favorable conditions for themselves than they were before (Theresa May's options). Today, the British Parliament begins to finalize the deal.

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On the daily chart, the price has consolidated above the line of the descending price channel, the Marlin oscillator shows a reversal only to insignificant depth, therefore the next target of 1.1215 as the Fibonacci level of 100.0% becomes relevant.

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On the four-hour chart, Marlin is expanding deeper, but it has not yet formed a divergence as a reversal formation, which also speaks in favor of the rising scenario. A trend reversal, of course, does not have to be accompanied by divergences, but then the fall of the signal line should be sharp, with the formation of a spike. So, we are waiting for the euro to grow by around 70 points, after which reversal elements may be added to the technical picture.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on October 21, 2019

GBP/USD

The British Parliament was supposed to vote on the Johnson-EU deal last Saturday, but the first thing he passed was a law requiring the prime minister to request an extension of the Brexit date. Boris Johnson instantly replied that the law was not written to him, but a little cooling down (after the House of Commons Speaker John Bercow threatened to file a petition for deferment) and having talked with Donald Tusk, he nevertheless sent such a request. Now the deadline is January 31. The government has put forward a draft of the deal with revisions for today, but the deputies have already made a number of serious amendments, including, possibly, a second referendum. As a result, the vote may be delayed again in the sense that amendments will be adopted, and this process may take a long time. At the same time, Parliament begins to consider a vote of confidence in the prime minister. If the government and Parliament do not reach a compromise on the draft deal, a re-election of Parliament may be called.

The markets met the weekend news calmly. The pound opened the week with a slight downward gap, but this is a purely technical aspect, the gap can be closed soon and the pound will continue to decline. Earlier we said that the British currency will weaken even with the ratification of the deal on the market effect of the sale on the fact. At the same time, while Johnson's proposal is worse than May's, it includes a customs border with Northern Ireland and "level playing field" (with the EU), including the rule of law of the EU.

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On the daily chart, the Marlin Oscillator began to reverse from the overbought zone. The first goal of the decline is the Fibonacci level of 123.6% at the price of 1.2743, then we are waiting for the price at the level of 161.8% at the price of 1.2548.

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On the four-hour chart, the oscillator signal line after multiple divergence is about to enter the decline zone. Technically, the situation is reversed.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on October 21, 2019

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar was able to gain a foothold over the strong resistance zone from trend lines and indicator lines and rushed to the upper boundary of the blue price channel (0.6896). Good Friday data on China provided help; GDP for the third quarter amounted to 6.0% YOY against the expected 6.1% YOY, but industrial production in September increased from 4.4% YOY to 5.8% YOY against forecast 5.0% YOY, retail sales in September increased from 7.5% YOY to 7.8% YOY.

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On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator slowly continues to grow. Even if it turns down, the market will have enough energy to continue growing and fully develop the price channel. The exit of the aussie from the blue price channel will open up new upward prospects.

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EURUSD approaching resistance, potential big drop coming up!

Price is approaching our first resistance which comprises of a horizontal overlap resistance, 78.6% fiboancci retracement where we are expecting a drop below this level to our first support level at 1.11018 which is also a horizontal pullback support level in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension.

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usdchf to reach 1st support at 0.9839, possible bounce!

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Further rise on AUDUSD

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Entry: 0.68460

23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 34 period EMA

Take Profit : 0.68946

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance since September 2019

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on October 21

Forecast for October 21 :

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1223, 1.1179, 1.1161, 1.1140, 1.1123 and 1.1092. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the upward cycle of October 9. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.1161 - 1.1179. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a movement to a potential target - 1.1223, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 1.1140 - 1.1123. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the goal is 1.1092. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of October 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1162 Take profit: 1.1175

Buy 1.1181 Take profit: 1.1220

Sell: 1.1140 Take profit: 1.1124

Sell: 1.1121 Take profit: 1.1093

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3215, 1.3141, 1.3033, 1.2939, 1.2810, 1.2734 and 1.2625. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 9. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.2939 - 1.3033. The breakdown of the level of 1.3035 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 1.3141. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3141 - 1.3215 .

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2810 - 1.2734. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2625. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2940 Take profit: 1.3032

Buy: 1.3035 Take profit: 1.3140

Sell: 1.2810 Take profit: 1.2735

Sell: 1.2730 Take profit: 1.2625

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9902, 0.9879, 0.9863, 0.9836, 0.9822 and 0.9794. Here, we are following the development of the local descending structure of October 15. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 0.9836 - 0.9822. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement to a potential target - 0.9794. We expect a pullback to the top from this level.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9863 - 0.9879. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9902. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the local descending structure of October 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9863 Take profit: 0.9875

Buy : 0.9881 Take profit: 0.9900

Sell: 0.9836 Take profit: 0.9822

Sell: 0.9820 Take profit: 0.9796

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.66, 109.33, 108.90, 108.72, 108.24, 108.02 and 107.67. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 4. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 108.72 - 108.90. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 109.33. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 109.66. Upon reaching this level, we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 108.24 - 108.02. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.67. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend: the upward cycle of October 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.90 Take profit: 109.30

Buy : 109.34 Take profit: 109.65

Sell: 108.24 Take profit: 108.03

Sell: 108.00 Take profit: 107.70

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3211, 1.3177, 1.3156, 1.3107, 1.3082 and 1.3052. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of October 10. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.3107 - 1.3082. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a movement to a potential target - 1.3052. From this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3156 - 1.3177. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3211. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of October 10th.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3156 Take profit: 1.3176

Buy : 1.3178 Take profit: 1.3210

Sell: 1.3107 Take profit: 1.3084

Sell: 1.3080 Take profit: 1.3052

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6933, 0.6901, 0.6886, 0.6860, 0.6832, 0.6820 and 0.6805. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of October 16. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6860. In this case, the target is 0.6886. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6886 - 0.6901. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6933. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6901.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6832 - 0.6820. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6805. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6860 Take profit: 0.6886

Buy: 0.6887 Take profit: 0.6900

Sell : 0.6832 Take profit : 0.6822

Sell: 0.6820 Take profit: 0.6805

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.95, 121.79, 121.34, 121.03, 120.61, 120.28, 119.92 and 119.64. Here, we are following the development of the local ascendant structure of October 15. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 121.03 - 121.34. The breakdown of the level of 121.35 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 121.79. Price consolidation is in the range of 121.79 - 121.95. From here, we expect a correction.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 120.61 - 120.28. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 119.92. This level is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the first goal - 119.64.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.05 Take profit: 121.34

Buy: 121.36 Take profit: 121.76

Sell: 120.60 Take profit: 120.33

Sell: 120.25 Take profit: 119.94

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 142.82, 140.89, 139.53, 137.79, 137.08, 136.05 and 135.47. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 8. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 139.55. In this case, the target is 140.89. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 140.92 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. In this case, the potential goal is 142.82. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 137.79 - 137.08. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 136.05. The range of 136.05 - 135.47 is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure of October 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 141.00 Take profit: 142.80

Sell: 139.50 Take profit: 138.75

Sell: 138.65 Take profit: 137.80

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Control zones EURUSD 10/21/19

The growth of the euro is a strong medium-term impulse. This indicates the need to find favorable prices for the purchase. Since the closing of trading last week occurred above the weekly and monthly average moves, the probability of the formation of a correctional model increased to 90%.

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Work towards continued growth will be relevant all week, as the growth of the pair has led to a violation of the downward long-term model. Any decrease should be perceived as a correction and look for opportunities to buy the instrument.

An alternative model will be developed if a local accumulation zone is formed. This will require retention of the Friday high and the formation of a false breakout pattern. At least two days should be traded within the Friday movement.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones AUDUSD 10/21/19

At the end of last week, the pair went beyond the average weekly move, which indicates the strength of the upward movement. However, it is important to understand that the probability of a return to the breached zone has increased to 90%. When building a daily plan, it is important to take this fact into account, as this will make it possible to obtain more favorable prices for purchasing.

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There is not much left to the target zone of WCZ 1/2 0.6870-0.6864, so its test will be decisive for further movement. If the test leads to the formation of a "false breakout" pattern, then this will indicate the beginning of the formation of the correctional model.

The main support on Monday will be WCZ 1/2 0.6799-0.6793. After returning to the range of the average course of the previous week, this zone will be decisive for the entire upward impulse. If the pair continues to trade above it, then the monthly high will be updated several more times.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Weekly Bitcoin analysis

On a weekly basis the Ichimoku cloud indicator has given a weak bearish signal by a cross of the tenkan-sen below the Kijun-sen. I expect this bearish signal to provide a pull back test towards weekly cloud support before the bullish trend resumes.

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Price is below the weekly Kijun- and tenkan-sen. Bulls need to recapture this resistance level ($9,500) in order for the trend to continue higher. Until then, price is in a bearish short-term trend looking for a back test of the Kumo. The Chikou span ( green line indicator) is approaching the lower cloud boundary support at 7270. Breaking below this level would be bad for bulls.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCAD at critical support

USDCAD is challenging important long-term support levels. Bulls need to step in now, otherwise we could see price move below 1.30 soon, even this week. Such a break down could lead to 1.27 and would cancel any scenario for a move towards 1.35.

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Red line- support trend line

USDCAD price is right above the red trend line support at 1.3125. The RSI has already broken this support level. This is a bearish sign. This increases the chances of a move lower at least towards 1.30. Long-term support is found at 1.30. Breaking below it will open the way for a move towards 1.28-1.27. Bulls need to recapture the 1.3240 level in order to keep hopes for 1.35 alive.

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EURUSD remains firmly bullish in the short-term

EURUSD has held its ground this week and closed at its week highs not looking back from 1.1030 where it opened last Monday. In our previous posts we noted that holding above 1.10-1.1030 would lead to a move towards 1.1130 and higher. Resistance at 1.10-1.1030 area got broken, back tested and then broken again. What else do we need for a clearer bullish sign?

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Black lines- wedge pattern

This wedge pattern has been noted several times in previous analysis. Our first target was the 38% Fibonacci retracement once the resistance at 1.10 was broken. Now we are moving closer to our next target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Trend is bullish in the short-term.

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As we noted last week we had a weak bullish signal by the cross of the tenkan-sen above the kijun-sen. We also said that a break above the Daily cloud resistance would strengthen this signal. And so it did break above the cloud for the first time since June. Daily trend is changing to bullish. Bulls now need to hold above the Kumo (cloud) support. A break below 1.10 would be very bearish. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly analysis of Gold

Gold price was mostly stable last week moving within a narrow price range. Gold ended the week slightly higher than last week while price moved between $1,477 and $1,498. At the end of the week price was just a bit higher than where it opened on Monday. So this is a no event week.

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Green lines - bearish channel

Despite Dollar sell off last week, Gold bulls did not manage to recapture the $1,500 level. Price remains inside the bearish channel and as long as we continue to trade below $1,525 I continue to expect price to move closer to the lower green channel boundary near $1,440. Support is at $1,477-74 and resistance at $1,500 and next at $1,525. Any bounce is considered selling opportunity as long as we trade below $1,525.

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On a daily basis in ichimoku cloud terms, Gold price is in neutral trend. Price is below the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicator favoring more downside. Resistance is at $1,500 (tenkan- and kijun-sen) and at $1,520-25 (upper cloud boundary). Support is at $1,471 (lower cloud boundary).The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com