Fundamental Analysis of EUR/CAD for June 18, 2018

EUR/CAD has been correcting itself below the 1.5350 area for a few days now, whereas certain volatility can be observed at highest rate in the process. Ahead of the upcoming high impact economic events and reports this week, such volatility is no surprise.

This week, ECB President Draghi is going to speak about the nation's key interest rate and policies which is expected to have a hawkish impact on the upcoming market behavior. Today, Italian Trade Balance report was published with a decrease to 2.94B from the previous figure of 4.53B which was expected to be at 3.21B. Despite the worse economic report, EUR was saved by the German Buba monthly report which did provide certain improvement results for the zone.

On the other hand, CAD has been struggling with the recent economic reports, whereas this week CAD is expected to gain certain momentum in the process. This week, on Friday, CAD CPI, Core Retail Sales, Common CPI, Trimmed CPI and Retail Sales reports are going to be published which are expected to inject certain volatility in the market. Though no expected figures and values are being published, CAD is expected to have certain positive results in the coming days.

As of the current scenario, if Draghi provides hawkish outcome for the Eurozone economy this week, EUR is expected to gain more momentum over CAD in the coming days. Though CAD has a series of impactful economic reports, the market is still quite indecisive with the economy, until the result publishes in the coming days. To sum up, EUR is expected to have an upper hand over CAD in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite bullish recently below the 1.5350 area, from where it is expected to break higher with target towards the 1.57 area in the coming days. Though there are still certain chances of the price pushing lower towards the 1.50 area, but the pressure is still quite bullish in the process. As the price remains above 1.50, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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BITCOIN Analysis for June 18, 2018

Bitcoin is currently residing below the $6,500 area with daily close which does indicate further bearish momentum in the coming days. Bitcoin has dropped around 4.57% by the end of the week which is indeed a shocking blow for traders of this Cryptocurrency. Though there were certain expectations that the price might rebound from the $6,500 to $7,500 area, but after pushing lower below the $6,500 area, the bias has currently turned bearish which might lead to more bearish pressure with target towards the $5,000-5,500 area in the coming days. As of the current scenario, the price is expected to correct itself below $6,500 and pushing lower towards the $5,000-5,500 area will not be an easy path to cross. As the price remains below the $6,500 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for June 18, 2018

USD/JPY has been making higher lows recently despite the volatile structure of the market. After breaching above 110.50 area recently, the price has pushed lower below 110.50 again impulsively that is more likely to inject certain bearish pressure in the market.

After the recent Federal Funds Rate hike from 1.75% to 2.00%, USD did not gain much momentum over JPY as expected. USD is still struggling for gains over JPY ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech. He is going to speak about the short-term interest rates and future monetary policy at the conference in Portugal on Wednesday. After the recent rate hike by the US Fed, his remarks are expected to provide the required push for USD to encourage further gains in the coming days.

On the other hand, JPY has not been quite impressive amid the recent economic reports but still manages to sustain the momentum against USD for a while. Despite the Bank of Japan's decision to keep the key interest rate at -0.10% last week, JPY managed to keep the USD pressure low in the market. Today, Japan's Trade Balance report was published with a decrease to -0.30T from the previous figure of 0.45T which was expected to be at 0.14T, which did not quite affect JPY strength at all. Moreover, this week BOJ Governor Kuroda is going to speak about the policy plans and measures to be taken to improve the economic conditions in the future.

As for the current scenario, this week the pair is expected to be quite volatile as two market-moving events are going to be held both in the US and Japan. Though USD has greater probabilities to dominate further over JPY, it is not going to be a straight and easy route to take. Certain correction and higher volatility are expected along the way, though the odds are that JPY will keep momentum.

Now let us look at the technical view. The pair is trading in a bearish bias, aiming to trade below 110.50 in the process. Though the price structure is still quite corrective, holding above the dynamic level of 20 EMA indicates the bullish momentum in the pair. As the price remains above 108.50 area with a daily close despite having certain pullbacks, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for June 18, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite corrective today, starting the trading day started with a small gap. Though the price has been quite impulsive amid the recent bearish pressure, bulls have not entered the market yet.

After the recent Federal Rate hike from 1.75% to 2.00%, the market pushed impulsively towards USD side while ECB is expected to upgrade its outlook on the eurozone's economy this week. Besides, ECB President Draghi is going to speak about the key interest rate and monetary policy. His speech is expected to make a hawkish impact on the trading sentiment. Today, Italian Trade Balance report was published with a decrease to 2.94B from the previous figure of 4.53B which was expected to be at 3.21B. Despite the worse economic report, EUR was propped up by the German Buba monthly report which contains some upbeat readings for the eurozone.

On the USD side, today FOMC Member Bostic is going to speak whose speech is likely to be of little importance for USD gains today whereas Fed Chair Powell is going to have a talk whose remarks are expected to have a good impact on further USD gains against EUR.

As for the current scenario, EUR is expected to recover for a while ahead of ECB President Draghi's speech as market sentiment is currently leaning towards EUR amid hawkish expectations from the event. On the other hand, Fed Chair Powell is also expected to make a certain impact on USD gains which is more likely. To sum up, EUR is expected to gain short-term momentum over USD whereas USD is expected to continue its trend in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing just above 1.1550 support area from where certain bullish gain is expected to push the price higher towards 1.1720 in the coming days. As the long-term trend is bearish, the price is expected to continue pushing lower with target towards 1.10 in the future. As the price remains below 1.1720 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue though certain correction and bullish intervention may be observed along the way.

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Global macro overview for 18/06/2018

I have the uncomfortable feeling that the market has underestimated both the importance of the Federal Reserve decision in June and the decision of the European Central Bank. Both regulators in a probably coordinated way decided to turn the taps with cheap money soon.

In my view, global investors have underestimated the consequences of the recent Fed and ECB monetary policy decisions and here is why:

First, changing the Fed's policy should guarantee a continuation of the bear trend in the debt market. The still ridiculously low yields on US bonds will probably grow with interest rates in the Federal Reserve. In such an environment it would be strange if the dollar did not gain against the euro, yen or pound, not even mention emerging currencies.

Secondly, the Fed's will probably not go unnoticed in Europe and Asia. The ECB, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England can not afford to disregard the Americans and will soon be taking their first steps towards ending the unprecedented monetary expansion. We already have the first effect - the ECB announced the end (conditional, but still) of its own QE together with December 2018.

Thirdly, the more restrictive (or rather more normal) Federal Reserve policy is a disastrous news for emerging markets. If the American investors will be able to safely earn 3-4% in Treasury securities in America, they will probably withdraw the cash invested in risky assets in some kind of Poland, Thailand or Brazil. The effects of the Fed's actions have already been experienced by residents of Argentina and Turkey, where local currencies suffered a breakdown. The market participants have observed the retreat of foreign capital from the emerging markets from mid-April. Higher US rates will probably only consolidate or even strengthen this move.

Fourthly, the risk of collapse in US share prices is on the rise. This is partly because the growing profitability of Treasuries increases the profitability of the alternative to extremely overvalued shares, but also partly because some investors can compensate for losses in emerging markets by realizing profits from US shares. And with the automatic investment systems, a ready recipe for Wall Street busting. A foretaste of what may happen, we already had in February.

In conclusion, if the most important central banks have actually started a coordinated retreat from the ultra-low monetary policy, then the bull market days are numbered. The more so that the bull is no longer young: the bull market in America is already 9 years old, which is a very old age for this species. Also, indices in Europe have many years of strong growth behind them. The scale of the coming breakdown will be directly proportional to the credit excesses of the last decade, which are unprecedented in history. Central banks, restoring long-sighted normality, simultaneously prepare a powerful crisis, during which 2008 will be a nice memory. Investors should therefore be prepared for a strong sell-off of both stocks and bonds. A strong dollar will put pressure on emerging markets. It's time to fasten your seatbelt and go on defensive positions.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has opened gap down at the level of 275.24 and it looks like the bears want to test the recent breakout above the old resistance zone (now support) between the levels of 273.42 - 274.15. The key level to the upside is still seen at the level of 280.61, but so far the momentum is weak and the market conditions are now overbought, so this situation a corrective pull-back down is being favored.

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Global macro overview for 18/06/2018

The weekend did not bring any significant macroeconomic or political information that could detach traders from following Football World Championship in Russia. However, there is a slight nervousness in the markets, although mainly as a result of an exchange of blows by the US and China in the field of new import duties.

Friday's decision of the Donald Trump administration to impose import duties on more than 1000 goods from China worth USD 50 billion has become the basis for the vacuuming of worries about trade wars. It was not half an hour, and China replied with a list of products from the USA, on which they would impose customs duties of similar destructive power. The markets are not yet in full-scale panic mode, because somewhere on the side there is a smoldering hope that all this is part of Trump's twisted negotiation policy, from which nothing harmful to global growth will emerge. Despite this, the issue of trade wars does not improve the investment climate, hence the nervousness in the stock markets and the likely pressure on risky currencies.

This week's unplanned reports from news sites may be more important than macro releases. The central bankers' symposium, taking place in Sintra in Portugal, should be in the center of attention for traders. The conference tonight (06:30 pm GMT) opens the ECB president Mario Draghi, who tomorrow has at 08:00 am GMT his panel of questions as well. Can Draghi mix more into EUR than what he did on Thursday? I would say no, but before the Thursday decision, markets did not count on fireworks either. Today, the comments of Fed members Williams and Bostic may also be interesting if it sheds more light on the pace of interest rate increases. Next week, the RBA (on Tuesday) and BoJ (on Wednesday) minutes should go unnoticed, but a disappointing GDP from New Zealand (on Thursday) would intensify investors' germinating reluctance to commodity currencies. On Thursday, we have the decision of SNB, Norges Bank and the Bank of England and the SNB decision should be closely monitored for all CHF traders. The Bank of England decision is important as well, but there should not be any change in policy.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe before BoE interest rate decision. The key zone to the upside is still seen between the levels of 1.3292 - 1.3307 and only a sustained violation of this zone would open the road towards the level of 1.3340 - 1.3350. Nevertheless, the momentum is still weak as the RSI remains below its fifty level so the odds for a test of the level of 1.3210 are still high.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 18, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair hasn't made a significant movement for a long time. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 0.7185 or higher. The NZD/USD pair continues to rise from the level of 0.6977 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.6977 which represents the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7057. So, buy above the level of 0.7057 with the first target at 0.7121 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7121. Besides, it might be noted that the level of 0.7185 is a good place to take profit because. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.6977, the stop loss should be placed at 0.6848.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 18, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair fell from the level of 1.1734 to bottom at 1.1543 last week. But it rebounded from the bottom to close at the price of 1.1617.

Today, the EUR/USD pair has faced strong support at the level of 1.1543.

So, the strong support has been already faced at the level of 1.1543 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again and form a double bottom.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 0.9660; to form a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 1.1662 and 1.1543. Also, it should be noted major resistance is seen at 1.1734, while immediate resistance is found at 1.1662. Then, we may anticipate potential testing of 1.1662 to take place soon.

Moreover, if the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.1662, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 1.1617. A breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to 1.1662.

Buy orders are recommended above the area of 1.1617 with the first target at the level of 1.1662 and continue towards 1.1698. On the other hand, if the EUR/USD pair fails to break out through the resistance level of 1.1662; the market will decline further to the level of 1.1489 (daily support 2).

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Daily review of GBP / JPY pair as of June 18, 1818. Ichimoku Indicator

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GBP / JPY pair

The Day Cross exerts resistance (Tenkan 147.08) and the attraction (Kijun 146.57). As a result, on the last day of last week, we failed to form a retreat but we saw a breakout instead. At lower time intervals, it is clear that the players to fall continues to decline now and needs to go into the bear zone against the H4 cloud. The formation of a new downside target for the breakdown of the H4 cloud will make it possible to liquidate the day's golden cross (Fibo Kijun 145,77) formed in favor of the bulls. After which, expect an interaction with the support zone in the region of 144.21-48 (the monthly Kijun + lower border of a week cloud).

At the same time, it should be noted that in case of prolonged braking and returning of full support to bullish interests by the Ichimoku day cross (Tenkan 147.08 + Fibo Kijun 147.38). There will be opportunities to test the key resistance zone 147.97-148.25 (a cluster of weekly levels) with the aim of breakdown, increasing sentiment and creating new prospects for players to rise.

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Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chikou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

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Review of EUR / GBP pair for a week of June 18 on simplified wave analysis

The wave pattern of the H4 graph:

An unfinished wave of this scale of the cross plot can be considered a bearish sector of March 7. In a larger wave model, it took the place of the final part (C).

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The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

Within the framework of a bigger formation from April 14, the price forms an upward wave. The structure of the movement shows working out of the middle part (B).

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

The bearish wave of June 7 reached the upper boundary of the calculated target zone at the time of analysis. Its structure had been formed, but there are no signals of a reversal.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Sales are risky, due to the limited reduction. In the area of the estimated support area, it is necessary to track the signals for buying a pair.

Resistance zones:

- 0.8820 / 0.8870

Support zones:

- 0.8650 / 0.8600

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the GBP/USD currency pair on June 18, 2018

The pound/dollar currency pair managed to roll back to the level of 1.3300 after Mario Draghi's speech, but the joy of the bulls was short-lived, and the new week began with another market collapse. As we discussed in the previous review of June 15, there are still a lot of sellers in the market and they can not escape from them. The current week does not shine with positive news for Europe and Britain. We are waiting for ECB meeting where Mario Draghi will continue to "stimulate" the interest of the traders.

Further development

There is nothing positive for the strengthening of the British Pound, but the banquet will continue for the dollar. Now the quotation is rapidly approaching the local lows of 1.3200, which at the same time reflects the range level. While the level holds the quotation, but if it lasts long enough, this would become the issue.

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At the moment we have two trading variations:

First, the level of 1.3200 keeps sellers, which is moving into a temporary flat between 1.3200 and 1.3300, where it will probably work with a small amount.

The second, "sit on the fence" while tracking clear fixations below the level of 1.3200. In the event of its breakdown, we will decline quite quickly to the range of 1.3150-1.3100, where in there will be a rapprochement in the the medium term at the psychological level of 1.3000.

Technical picture

Analyzing different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicator analysis is more inclined to sales than to purchases. The general conclusion: We actively sell.

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Key Levels

Resistance zones: 1.3300 *; 1.3440 **

Support zones: 1.3200; 1.3000 **

* Periodic level

** Range level

*** We sit on the fence - slang expression, we are out of the market

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of AUD / USD pair for the week of June 18 via simplified wave analysis

The wave pattern of the H4 graph:

The direction of short-term trends of the "Aussie" major pair sets the downward wave algorithm from January 26. In a larger model, the section completes the wave structure (A-B-C), which explains the overall impulsive nature of the motion.

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The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

The ascending segment of the graph dated May 9 completed the irregular upward correction of the pair. The bearish phase that began later has a great potential.

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

Since June 6, the downward wave is developing. On a larger scale, it begins to form the final part (C) of the main trend. In the coming days, the price is expected to roll back up.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Traders who are trading in higher timeframes before buying should wait for the completion of the current bearish wave. On a smaller scale, trade is recommended for the sale of tools.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7490 / 0.7540

Support zones:

- 0.7320 / 0.7270

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

It is not necessary to consider growth of the euro

The European currency received support on Friday following a major collapse on Thursday and meeting of the European Central Bank. Optimistic data on the growth rates of wages in the euro area led to some demand for the European currency in the first half of the day. The diverse fundamental statistics on the American economy did not contribute to the US dollar strengthening, and the White House's claims related to China's trade tariffs as well as the returned interest in asylum currencies from investors.

According to Eurostat statistics, hourly wages in the euro area for the first quarter of this year increased by 1.8% year-on-year, after a 1.6% growth in the 4th quarter of 2017. Such data will necessarily lead to higher consumer spending and the strengthening of the European economy in the second quarter of this year, which is really needed by the ECB, especially on the curtailment of the asset redemption program in December this year.

The two-week talks between Washington and Beijing did not end, as US President Donald Trump administration announced tariffs on imports from China at a total cost of $ 50 billion. First of all, we are talking about tariffs on goods from China, which contain industrially significant technologies. The White House also said that they would impose additional duties if China took retaliatory measures.

Earlier, China's representatives have repeatedly said that the imposed tariffs on the part of the United States will not remain unnoticed.

Based on the US economy data, the growth of business activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York should be noted. According to the report, the leading production index in June 2018 has grown to 25 points. The subscriber price index fell to 52.7 points, while the subscription for new orders rose to 21.3 points.

Industrial production data in the US somewhat disappointed the investors in the afternoon. According to reports, US industrial production in May this year fell by 0.1% compared with April, while economists predicted its growth of 0.2%. Capacity utilization in the US in May amounted to 77.9% against the forecast growth of 78.1%.

The Consumer Sentiment Survey was published at the end of the day but was generally ignored by the market. According to the data, the preliminary index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan in June 2018 amounted to 99.3 points versus 98.0 in May. Economists expected the preliminary June value to be 98.3 points.

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* The presented analysis of the market is informative and is not a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound: a small technical dot

GBP / USD

The British pound closed Friday's growth by 19 points, with the support of a 0.13% decrease in the dollar index. But the pound did not have its own reasons. The index of the fast-moving economic indicators of Great Britain for April fell by -0.2% after the previous decline by -0.3%. Prospects for Brexit remain negative. Also, the upcoming meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, 21st of November, is not optimistic, since there are no changes expected in the monetary sentiments of the monetary policy committee . But this will be the only important event for the British pound and not the significant macroeconomic indicators for the week.

Technical indicators, like oscillators (Marlin), and price indicators, indicate a continuing decline in prices. The closest target is GBP / USD 1.3210.

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* The presented analysis of the market is informative and is not a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of EUR / USD pair for the week of June 18 via simplified wave analysis

The wave pattern of the H4 graph:

The unfinished wave of the euro major pair from January 25 is heading "south" on chart and reached the intermediate support zone.

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The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

The last downward wave since the end of March has been formed. Last month, the formation of a counter correction began.

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

The ascending segment from May 29 became the first part (A) of the bull wave. Last week, the middle phase of the movement (B) began. With a high probability, the wave will take the wrong kind of structure.

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Recommended trading strategy:

At this stage of the price movement, sales are not recommended. In the support area, monitor the signals for buying the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1930 / 1.1980

Support zones:

- 1.1520 / 1.1470

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every time frame is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for June 18, 2018

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Trading recommendations: According to the H1 time - frame, I found a rejection of resistance trendline in the background, which is sign that buying looks risky. I found intraday rising trendline and my advice is to watch for potential breakout of trendline to confirm further downward continuation. The downward target is set at the price of $6.157.

Support/Resistance

$6.500– Intraday resistance $6.350– Intraday support $6.157– Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for June 18, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,275. According to the H1 time - frame, I found strong supply in the background, which is a sign that sellers in control. I also found a bearish flag in creation, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the bearish flag to confirm further downward continuation. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,275.25 and at the price of $1,236.00.

Resistance levels: R1: $1,284.50R2: $1,286.40 R3: $1,287.90

Support levels: S1: $1,281.10S2: $1,279.60S3: $1,277.70

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Macro stats put pressure again on the euro

EUR / USD

As a result on Friday, the euro corrected up by about 40 points at the unexpected fall in US industrial production in May, the indicator showed -0.1% against the forecast growth of 0.2%. The capacity utilization rate decreased from 78.1% to 77.9%. In the euro area trade balance showed a decline from 19.8 billion euros to 18.1 billion, but investors decided to record a profit with an overall neutral situation. The US consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan increased from 98.0 to 99.3 in June. A significant phenomenon in the market happened on Friday, as the oil fell at 3.95% due to the intention of OPEC + during the June 22-23 meeting to increase the quota for extraction. Also, gold fell on Friday by 1.70%. Commodity markets in the whole spectrum from metals to crops declined. All this suggests the continuous strengthening of the dollar in adjacent markets, and its growth on Forex is expected today.

In Italy, the trade balance for April is projected to decline from 4.53 billion euros to 3.21 billion euros. In the US, the business activity index in the housing market from NAHB for the current month is expected to remain unchanged at 70 points. Tomorrow, the eurozone balance of payments for April is expected to decrease from 32 billion euros to 30 billion, and the construction volume of new homes in the US in May is expected to increase from 1.28 million to 1.32 million. We are waiting for a decline in the euro to 1.1510.

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* The presented analysis of the market is informative and is not a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for June 18, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1587. According to the H1 time frame, I found a potential bullish flag in creation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential breakout of a bullish flag to confirm further upward movement. The upward target is set at the price of 1.1625.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1600

R2: 1.1610

R3: 1. 1615

Support levels:

S1: 1.1587

S2: 1.1580

S3: 1.1570

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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"Australian" is steadily decreasing

AUD / USD

On Friday, the Australian dollar continued to decline and lost 35 points. Unlike the euro, it did not have any positive or external support. Oil (Brent) lost 3.29%, iron ore -0.11%, copper -2.19%. Today is a holiday in China and Australia will release residential prices for the first quarter tomorrow, with the forecast of -1.0%. Also, the RBA minutes from the last meeting will be published tomorrow, which will mark anxiety about the trade wars. According to the US on Tuesday, an indicator of construction of new homes will be released in May, and the forecast predicts an increase of 1.4%.

A slight sensation arose on the Australian debt market for the first time in the past 18 years, while the spread between 10-year US and Australian bonds has become negative (-0.241 points). This is an additional pressure factor for the Australian currency.

We are waiting for the AUD/USD currency pair in the range of 0.7375 / 85. Further support will be the lower boundary of the price channel 0.7352.

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* The presented analysis of the market is informative and is not a guide to the transaction.

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Bitcoin analysis for 18/06/2018

The last six months on the cryptocurrency market is a time of disappointment among investors. However, there are few indications that Bitcoin and other currencies would have to "end". On the contrary - taking into account technological development, interest in the world of Blockchain and crypto projects and the fact that the market is very young, you can estimate that everything is ahead of us. Only by investing, you should take care not only of risk awareness but also patience ...

Specialist in cryptocurrencies and ICO as well as CEO of The Blackmore Group and Wealth Chain Group - Phillip Nunn - aroused interest earlier this year among cryptocurrency investors, when he predicted that the price of Bitcoin would fall to $ 6,000 in February. He also predicted that its peak would be at the level of 60,000 dollars. Nunn, however, said that although he maintained his forecasts, his confidence in Bitcoin's price fell nearly 18% last week.

The first half of Nunna's predictions came true in the first week of February, when Bitcoin's price dropped slightly below $ 6,000. Now many are becoming skeptical that Bitcoin will be able to return to its $ 20,000 from the highest level in the first half of 2018, let alone nearly $ 60,000.

Nunn remains confident, however, citing unwavering faith in the underlying Blockchain technology, claiming that this is a vehicle that will take Bitcoin and other digital currencies to new highs in the years to come. He said: "in fact, we go from internet to information value Internet."

Nunn - like most other cryptocurrency investors and analysts - agrees that the largest factor in these high percentage forecasts in both directions can be accredited by high volatility in the market. Nunn explained: "the forecasts were based primarily on the volatility of the market that we are currently experiencing. I think it's really obvious. I support my predictions completely."

The cryptocurrency market is still relatively young and quite small compared to traditional markets, and the small marketplace of cryptocurrencies facilitates manipulation. However, the continuous waves of messages regarding regulation, technology and security make the cryptocurrency market truly unique. Nunn continues: "all the money that currently exists in cryptography comes from society, so it all depends on market sentiment. A flood of bad news can shake the market, as does regulation. The industry is so small that there is manipulation on the market."

As the cryptocurrency market matures, an inflow of institutional investments and new infrastructure should be expected, which will slowly limit market manipulation and potentially lead to higher prices. Well, as they say: hope dies last.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the daily and H4 time frame. After the recent invalidation of the impulsive upwards scenario, the next best fit for the waves is presented at the daily time frame chart: the current cycle is the continuation of the downward correction in form of a complex structure labeled as WXY. There is still a chance, that this structure might evolve into more complex cycle line WXYXZ, but for now, the count will follow only WXY scenario for wave 2.

At the lower time frame, we can see an unfolding downward cycle in form of a Triple Zig-Zag corrective pattern that might constitute the wave Y of wave 2. The projected target level for wave C of wave Y is seen at $5,500, but the wave might unfold even lower, towards the level of $4,970.

On the intraday time frame, the nearest techncial support is seen at the level of $6,090 and the two key intraday technical resistance levels are seen at $6,587 and $6,687. Nevertheless, in order for bulls to regain the control over the market, they would have to break out abive the wave XX top at the level of $7,752.

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Will the dollar continue to grow?

The first half of this month was held in anticipation of the results of meetings of the Fed and the ECB on monetary policy. This constrained the markets, since if in the case of the Fed meeting, the consensus forecast implied another increase in interest rates by 0.25%, the key to 2.0%, then the situation with the ECB was not so obvious.

The Fed hiked interest rates and made it clear that the process of a smooth rise in the cost of borrowing will continue not three, but four times this year and will spread further to 2019 and 2020. This did not surprise investors, but the result of the meeting of the European regulator was unexpected for most market participants, which caused the collapse of the European currency. We, by the way, did not belong to this majority, because in the winter we expected that the ECB would not decide to completely stop the program of quantitative easing in September due to the deceleration of inflationary pressure and the general fear of the central bank by the stability of economic growth. But now the situation seems to us only worsened, and the reason for this is the notorious D. trump, who increased import duties on aluminum and steel from the EU to the United States. These US measures threaten the European economy with significant financial losses, which can expand to the German automotive industry, which will be if not a disaster for the first EU economy, then a strong blow.

Assessing such probable prospects, as well as the decision of the ECB not to stop stimulus measures in September of this year and continue them until the end of the year, albeit at a lower level - 15 billion euros against 30 billion euros at the moment, we believe that the single currency may continue its decline against the US dollar. An important role played by the awareness of market players that there is a renewal of discrepancies in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB is clearly not in favor of the euro. Since the Fed, in accordance with the promises, will continue the process of a smooth increase in interest rates, and the ECB at best to stop incentive measures. At the same time, as the head of the Central Bank of Belgium J. Smets said on Friday, there is a possibility of renewal of stimulating measures in the future. Proceeding from this scenario, we believe that the euro/dollar pair should be sold on corrective growth.

Assessing the reaction of other major currencies, and not only them, on Thursday, following the ECB meeting, we believe that the dollar will grow against them, as the beginning of the active phase of trade wars will deter many central banks from wanting to raise interest rates.

The forecast for today:

The EURUSD pair is trading above the level of 1.1550. It may resume its fall towards 1.1470, if it overcomes the mark of 1.1550.

The AUDUSD pair is also under pressure. It has the potential to continue its fall against the backdrop of the entry into force of new US customs duties against China, which will hit the economic growth of China and will have a negative impact on Australia's exports to China, as it is the main for the first. Given this, the pair can overcome the level of 0.7425 and fall to 0.7375.

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Trading plan for the European session on June 18 EUR/USD

To open long positions for EURUSD, it is required:

Buyers need to return to the resistance level of 1.1606 in order to resume the upward correction, which will allow them to count on a new impulse with the update of the resistance of 1.1649 and 1.1694, where I recommend profit taking. In the event of a further decline in the euro, only a false break on the support of 1.1571 will allow you to look at new purchases of the EUR/USD. Otherwise, you can open long positions only on the rebound from 1.1522.

To open short positions for EURUSD, it is required:

The formation of a false breakout at 1.1606, or a repeated support test at 1.1571, will be a good signal for opening new short positions in euros in order to update the monthly lows around 1.1522 and 1.1482, where I recommend locking in profits for today. In case of growth above 1.1606 in the first half of the day, selling of the EUR/USD can be seen in the area of 1.1649 and 1.1694.

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Indicator description

  • Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Trading plan for the European session on June 18 GBP/USD

To open long positions for GBP/USD, it is required:

Buyers of the pound will show themselves in the support area of 1.3252, but it is best to open long positions immediately on the rebound in the area of 1.3213. The main task for the first half of the day will be to return and consolidate on the resistance of 1.3283, which will lead to a small upward correction to the area of 1.3315 and 1.3346, where I recommend profit taking.

To open short positions for GBP/USD, it is required:

Sellers will try to gain a foothold below the support of 1.3252, which will lead to the formation of a new downward wave in the area of 1.3213 and 1.3146, where I recommend to lock in profit. In the event of a rise in the resistance of 1.3283 in the first half of the day, selling of the pound can return to a rebound from 1.3315 and 1.3346.

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Indicator description

  • Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Trading plan for 18/06/2018

There is nervousness on the financial markets fueled by fears of trade wars recalled on Friday by Trump's admiration for China. Panic is not visible, but the stock market is red. The currency market remains stable without major movements: EUR / USD keeps on close to 1.16. The yen remains stable despite the earthquake that hit the western part of Japan, including Osaka, the second largest urban area in the country. Changes from the beginning of the week on major pairs with USD do not exceed 0.25%. The crude market is warming up before the OPEC summit.

On Monday, 18th of June, the event calendar is light in important data releases, so an exceptionally quiet start to the week is going on. In addition to the data on the Japanese trade balance, no macro data will be published. It is only on Thursday that the most important event of the week will take place - the Bank of England meeting and its decision on interest rates. Today, we are mainly waiting for speeches of central bankers as a meeting on central banks held by the ECB will take place from Monday to Wednesday in Sintra. The event will be opened by the President of the European Central Bank. Mario Draghi will also be speaking on Tuesday and Wednesday. The movements of the single currency in the coming days may depend on its rhetoric. In addition, there will be numerous presentations of FED members at the FOMC today. Dudley will be the first to speak at 12:45 pm GMP, then Duke, Bostic and Williams in the space of hours.

USD/JPY analysis for 18/06/2018:

Stock markets in Asia started a week with a decline after raising concerns about a trade dispute between the US and China. Nikkei opened with a small gap, which deepened over time. When the lunch break starts, the index loses 0.89% or over 200 points. The situation is similar to the Korean Kospi. The index currently loses nearly 1.0% and is at the session minimum.

There were moderate data releases overnight on Japan's trade balance. In May, the deficit amounted to JPY 578 billion, although only 235 billion JPY was expected. Exports grew stronger than expected (+ 8.1% vs. 7.5%), however strong appreciation of imports increased the balance of trade.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the support at the level of 110.27 and currently is moving towards the golden trend line resistance located around the level of 110.65. In a case of a bullish breakout, just above this line, there is a technical resistance at the level of 110.72 and another one at the level of 110.89. The key level to the upside is still located at 111.39. On the other hand, the immediate support is 110.27 and then 109.91 - 109.83 zone. The momentum remains above its fifty level, so there is still a change for a move upwards.

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Trade wars - the inevitability of a new time

The US dollar opens a new week with strong growth, working out not only the growing gap in the monetary policies of the ECB and the Fed, but also preparing for the beginning of a full-scale trade war, "the US against all", the threat of which is currently higher than ever.

We have repeatedly noted that Trump's trade wars are absolutely inevitable under current conditions, despite victorious reports about the strength of the US economy and on improving the macroeconomic forecasts of the Fed, which justifies the acceleration of the pace of normalization of monetary policy.

The chart below shows two key patterns describing the economic condition of the United States. One of them reflects the share of industrial production in the GDP structure and it shows that the state of the real economy is not just bad, it is catastrophic. The growth of the real sector came to a halt in 2000, shortly before assets were rushed into the growing bubble of "house committees", and at the moment there are no signs of a correction of the situation. In May 2018, the volume of industrial production fell again by 0.1%, and therefore the entire growth of GDP, referred to by the Federal Reserve, consists exclusively of the growth of the services sector.

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The second criterion is the ratio of the number of new jobs created by the US economy to the number of citizens falling out of the labor force. At the moment, unemployment in the US is only 3.8%, the Fed expects a decline in the coming year to 3.6%, which actually meets the criteria for full employment. However, the real ratio of workers to non workers is worse than before the 2008 crisis and much worse than in 2000, remaining at a historically low level. It's not about demographics, it's a matter of the crafty statistics, which allows us to take out of the workforce a significant part of the working population, not only unemployed, but also desperate to find it.

To date, the real sector is not able to create jobs, and the US economy will not be able to maintain a dominant position in the world without decisive actions to change the structure of GDP; a post-industrial society does not withstand price competition with Asian countries, and an attempt to close its market from cheap imports is an inevitable step in the struggle for a new industrialization of the United States. Trump does what he can to save the American economy, and therefore his actions are consistently logical and can not be canceled. Trade partners of the United States need to leave the illusion that they can bargain for themselves any privileged conditions - this is simply impossible.

In this light, the Fed's policy is clearly aimed at strengthening the dollar. In addition to the fact that the Fed is tightening the rate of growth and reduces the balance sheet, it is engaged in another process, which does not focus attention - an attempt to gently get rid of the excess reserves of banks. At the last meeting, the Fed raised the rate for excess reserves by 0.2% instead of 0.25%, thereby reducing the profitability of banks when placing funds on the Fed's correspondent accounts, and most likely will reduce the profitability of the placement further. Thus, the Fed intends to force banks to assume part of the responsibility for financing the government's debt, after all, someone has to buy out the Treasuries, if the Fed itself does not intend to do so?

The dollar will dominate the markets in the coming week, confidence in a fourth rate hike this year is growing, the spread of yields will also grow in favor of US assets.

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Important macroeconomic data is not expected at the beginning of the week, the publication of preliminary PMI Markit data for June is of interest, however this will happen only on Friday, and therefore there are no economic reasons for changing sentiments. Markets will be prepared for the beginning of trade wars in which, in addition to the United States and China, the EU, Canada and Mexico - all major US trading partners - will take part. Tightening the Fed's policy will lead to a further withdrawal of the dollar from emerging markets, financial flows will objectively contribute to the growth of demand for the dollar, and it is unlikely that something will be able to prevent it from strengthening.

Markets will listen carefully to the comments of a number of FOMC members on Monday and Tuesday, as well as to the discussion of a number of Central Bank heads at the ECB forum opening today.

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Technical analysis on USD/JPY for June 18, 2018

The USD/JPY pair is trading in a bullish trend. Price has been making higher highs and higher lows since the end of May at the 108.10 level. The last higher high was made by USD/JPY at 110.91, however, it was a non-confirmed high by the RSI which is diverging.

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Blue lines- bullish channel

The USD/JPY pair has support at 110.20 and next at the 109.70-109.40 area by the Ichimoku cloud. Resistance is at 111. The USD/JPY pair is in a bullish trend as long as the price is inside the blue upward sloping channel and will give us a reversal signal, once the channel is broken. Trend will change to bearish only in the case of a break below 109.40.

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Technical analysis on the Dollar index for June 18, 2018

The Dollar index has reached again its May highs after the ECB meeting giving a push lower to EUR/USD which is the major component of the Dollar index. The index is trading at its yearly highs with the RSI diverging.

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The Dollar index could make new highs this week but I will be looking for a major reversal for the index soon. Of course any break below the 93 level will confirm that a top is in, Shorter-term support is at 94.20. Resistance at 95.25 and next at 95.70 which is a possible target to be reached this week. Trend is bullish. However I prefer to be a contrarian now and look for reversal signs as I believe the Dollar will make a major top soon and reverse back below 90 over the coming months.

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Technical analysis on Gold for June 18, 2018

Gold price has broken through our support levels and reached our lower target in the $1,275-80 area. Last week, we were worried that a break below $1,290 would lead to a test of $1,280 and probably give a new lower low. I was bullish and still remain bullish for the longer term, but the market showed us a decline, so we should protect our longs.

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Red line - triangle

Blue line - support

Yellow line - bullish divergence

Gold price in the short-term support is at $1,278 and next at $1,262. The RSI is diverging while the price is marginally below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Last week, once the triangle pattern broke out and Gold got rejected once again at the $1,307-$1,310 area, things were not looking good for Gold. Inability to break the resistance was followed by a rejection and new lower lows. Gold has resistance at $1,295. Only a move above this level could increase the chance of a major low. Longer-term view remains bullish for a move towards $1,400-$1,450.

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Trump the destroyer: US-China Trade war approaches

Trump the destroyer: the US-China Trade war is approaching.

China introduces retaliatory measures on US goods after the US statement on the introduction of duties on goods from the United States on Friday, June 15.

China said it is imposing new duties on goods from the US, including soybeans, Boeing aircraft and crude oil.

In total, the list of goods from the United States, which is expected to impose duties, 659 goods - compared to 110 goods in the list of China from April. This is a response to Trump's decision to impose duties on goods from China worth $50 billion. - the tax is 25%.

On Friday, US authorities said that if China responds, the US government will immediately introduce new duties on an additional list of goods from China.

Thus, before the full-scale US-China trade war, there remains a minimum distance - by actions and time.

American business-especially high-tech, producing its products in China (a striking example - Apple and its iPhones and iPads) - appeals to Trump to abandon new duties, as it will lead to duties on US goods of American companies.

The picture is supplemented by Trump's willingness to impose duties on steel and aluminum from Europe, Canada and Mexico - despite the stiff resistance of the US allies - we recall the failure and the virtual breakdown of the "Big Seven" last weekend - the US-Partner conflict reached such a degree (especially with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau) - that Trump even withdrew his signature under the final statement of the "Seven".

The situation is unfolding rapidly, we are following the development.

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BITCOIN Analysis for June 15, 2018

Bitcoin bounced above $6,500 area yesterday quite surprisingly. This opens the doors for the bulls to push the price higher for a certain period of time. Due to the recent negative reports about hacker attacks and Bitcoin experts signaling the price to move lower towards $5,000, the sentiment was quite against the bullish pressure. Nevertheless, yesterday we observed certain bullish pressure leading to a bullish daily close above $6,500 area, the price is expected to push higher for a certain period towards the dynamic level of 200 EMA residing at $7,000-7,500 area. After the price is rejected off the area, the bearish pressure is expected to continue to push the price lower with a target towards $5,000 area in the coming days. As the price remains below $8,000 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for June 15, 2018

EUR/GBP has been residing inside the correction range 0.87 to 0.8850 area for a few weeks now, where the price showed impulsive bearish pressure yesterday following the recently published EUR economic reports and events.

Recently EUR Main Refinancing Rate report was published with an unchanged value as expected at 0.00% but ECB failed to impress the market participants with its upcoming plans to for the economic growth. EUR economy has been quite unimpressive recently leading EUR to lose certain grounds in the market. Today EUR Final CPI report was published with an unchanged value as expected at 1.9%, Final Core CPI report was also published unchanged as expected at 1.1% and Trade Balance report was published with a decrease to 18.1B from the previous figure of 19.8B which was expected to increase to 20.2B.

On the other hand, GBP gained momentum having better than expected Retail Sales report yesterday. Retail Sales report was published at 1.3% decrease from the previous value of 1.8% which was expected to decrease to 0.5%. The better than expected result helped GBP to gain momentum when EUR was struggling to make an impact. As a result, GBP gained quite impulsively against EUR in the process which is expected to continue further in the coming days leading to more gains on the GBP side in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has rejected the bulls with greater extent today after the recent impulsive bearish pressure breaking below 0.8750 area with a daily close. Though the price is currently residing inside the support area of 0.8700-50 the bears are expected to push the price much lower towards 0.85 in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.8850 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for June 15, 2018

AUD/JPY has been quite impulsive in the bearish bias after bouncing off the 84.00 area with a daily close recently. Amid the recent mixed employment report from Australia, JPY has gained impulsive momentum which is expected to encourage a further downward move in the coming days.

Today, RBA Assistant Governor Ellis spoke about the nation's key interest rate and future monetary policies which had a neutral impact on the market. RBA is currently in the process to develop plans for GDP growth with not much change in the policies which will be inveiled in the coming days.

On the other hand, today Japan's Policy Rate report was published with the same record low key policy rate at -0.10% in line with expectations, whereas BOJ Press Conference was quite indecisive, having a neutral impact on further economic developments.

As for the current scenario, certain correction and indecision is expected in this pair in the short run. JPY is expected to have an upper hand over AUD in the process, as AUD is found struggling for gains amid the fresh employment reports.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 83.50-84.00 resistance area after the recent rejection off the level with a daily close. The price is being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA in the process along with Bearish Divergence as well, which is expected to push the price much lower towards 80.50-81.50 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 84.50 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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EUR/USD analysis for June 15, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1542. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential end of the bullish corrective phase in the background. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1510.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1760

R2: 1.1950

R3: 1.2050

Support levels:

S1: 1.1469

S2: 1.1370

S3: 1.1178

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/CAD for June 15, 2018

EUR/CAD is currently residing below 1.53 price area after being rejected off the 1.5350 price area with an impulsive bearish daily candle. EUR has been quite weak in comparison to CAD in the current market scenario, where the price is expected to push much lower in the coming days.

Despite the recent weak economic reports of CAD including a decrease in Employment Change to -7.5k from the previous figure of -1.1k, did have an impact on the growth of CAD in the process. Recently CAD NHPI report was published unchanged at 0.0% which was expected to increase to 0.2%.

On the other hand, EUR has been quite mixed with the recent economic reports whereas ECB had less to offer for the currency growth in the market. Today Final CPI report was published with an unchanged value as expected at 1.9%, Final Core CPI report was also published unchanged as expected at 1.1% and Trade Balance report was published with decrease to 18.1B from the previous figure of 19.8B which was expected to increase to 20.2B.

As of the current scenario, CAD is expected to gain further momentum over EUR in the coming days as of the recent EUR worse economic reports having impact on the economy growth. Though there are certain high impact economic events like ECB President Draghi's speech for a multiple time which is expected to inject volatility ahead of the CAD CPI and Retail Sales report to be published in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of breaking below the dynamic level of 20 EMA after being bounced off with a daily close from 1.5350 area. Currently the price is forming certain Continuous Bearish Divergence in the process, which is expected to push the price lower towards 1.50 in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.5350 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 15, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

As mentioned, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established.

The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, further bearish momentum was expressed in the market.

The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) was considered a prominent Supply zone where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry was offered Yesterday. S/L should be lowered to 1.1720 to offset the associated risks.

As depicted on the chart, evident bearish rejection was expressed around the price zone of (1.1850-1.1750). This enhances the bearish side of the market towards 1.1520-1.1420.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 is the next destination for the current bearish decline where price action should be watched for bullish demand and a possible bullish pullback.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for June 15, 2018

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Since January, the price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 has been standing as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous weeks' consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.6860 and 0.6820. That's why, the price level of 0.7050 is currently considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for sellers to have a valid SELL entry. It's already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to entry levels (0.7050) to offset the risk.

Currently, the price zone of 0.6820-0.6780 will be the next destination for the NZD/USD pair. It should be watched for bullish rejection and a possible valid BUY entry.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 15, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair opened below the weekly pivot point (1.3429). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.3429 to the bottom around 1.3225. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3429 followed by 1.3580, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3225. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.3225. So it will be good to sell at 1.3250 with the first target of 1.3200. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.3106.

The strong daily support is seen at the 1.3106 level, which represents the double bottom on the H4 chart. According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade between 1.3250 and 1.3106 in coming hours. The price area of 1.3300 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the levels of 1.3300/1.3429 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.3429, then a stop loss should be placed at 01.3475.

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Global macro overview for 15/06/2018

The Eurostat published the most important report during today's European session: the final data on consumer inflation in the Eurozone (CPI). In the case of data on a monthly basis, market forecasts increase, as was the case for year-on-year readings. As it turned out, expectations were a spot on.

In annual terms, inflation in May 2018 reached 1.9%, which in comparison to the April reading (1.3%) indicates its increase. In turn, the annualized CPI for the entire EU reached the level of 2.0% against 1.5% in April this year, while a year earlier the reading indicated 1.6%. Data on a monthly basis point to CPI inflation by 0.5%, thus they are in line with market expectations, but higher than the previous reading (0.3%).

The lowest increase in inflation was recorded in Ireland (0.7%) and Greece (0.8%). The highest in Romania, where the CPI is up 4.6%.

In conclusion, the Consumer Price Index data were in line with expectations, but there are still below the ECB target on a minimum 2.0%.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Quotations of the main currency pair are correcting the strong decline, which lasted until the end of yesterday's session. As can be seen in the 4-hour chart below, inflation data help to move the price above the level of 1.1600, but the nearest technical resistance at 1.1616 seems to be the line in the sand for now. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1542 and violation of this level would immediately lead to the test of the swing low at the level of 1.1509.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 15, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot: 0.7075.

The NZD/USD pair didn't make significant movement last week. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 0.7185 or higher. The NZD/USD pair continues to rise from the level of 0.6977 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.6977 which represents the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7057. So, buy above the level of 0.7057 with the first target at 0.7121 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7121. Besides, it might be noted that the level of 0.7185 is a good place to take profit because. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.6977, the stop loss should be placed at 0.6848.

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AUD/USD analysis for June 15, 2018

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Recently, the AUD/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 0.7459. According to the H1 time – frame, I found broken upward trendline in the background which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a potential end of the intraday bullish corrective phase which is a sign that AUD/USD may continue lower. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 0.740.

Resistance levels:

R1: 0.7539

R2: 0.7610

R3: 0.7650

Support levels:

S1: 0.7430

S2: 0.7393

S3: 0.7320

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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