Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 01/10/2020 and a trading recommendation

Apparently, investors are not impressed by what is happening around Iran, but are still seriously preparing for today's release of the report of the United States Department of Labor. The fact that the likelihood of an escalation of military confrontation between the United States and Iran has faded away has allowed everyone to breathe and relax, which of course has calmed the markets. In turn, this allowed investors to pay close attention to macroeconomic data, as well as to forecasts for the US labor market, and to begin to think over a line of behavior. Only this can explain the complete lack of market reaction to data on applications for unemployment benefits.

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Nevertheless, the data turned out to be extremely interesting, and makes us seriously think. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell by 9 thousand, instead of the forecasted 4 thousand. This is certainly not bad, and even good, however, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits, which should have been reduced by 31 thousand, unexpectedly increased by 75 thousand. This is a lot. Which naturally inspires concern, and clearly drove many investors into a stupor.

Number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits (United States):

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At the same time, it is the incredibly poor data on repeated applications for unemployment benefits that suggest that the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor will be negative. True, it is worth noting that the forecasts for it do not sparkle with optimism. So, 165 thousand new jobs should be created outside agriculture, against 266 thousand in the previous month. Also, the unemployment rate could rise from 3.5% to 3.6%. Although this should happen due to an increase in the share of labor in the total population, from 63.2% to 63.3%. But no one will initially pay attention to this, since the very fact of rising unemployment will plunge investors into gloom. But the most interesting is that no one has revised these forecasts, after yesterday's data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. So there is a chance that the data will be even worse.

Unemployment rate (United States):

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a kind of restraint, expressed in local stagnation, along the value of 1.1100. In fact, this is the first stop from the beginning of the week, and an intense downward move behind it, in the structure of which there was no pullback, or correction.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see that the main support is still lower and reflects the level of 1.1080, which in turn changed its status and became a range level, which confirms the current boundaries of the slowdown.

It is likely to assume that the quotation will continue to fluctuate within 1.1090/1.1120, but this will not last long, where the most optimal tactic would be to work on the breakdown of time boundaries.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- Long positions, we consider in case of price consolidation higher than 1.1125.

- Short positions, we consider in case of price consolidation lower than 1.1080.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments still maintain a downward mood, although the current slowdown has already affected smaller time sections.

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Control zones of AUDUSD 01/10/2020

The movement of the last three days occurs within the zone of the average weekly move. The probability of closing trades below this zone is 30%, so we are seeing a stop in the decline. Now the pair is testing the first resistance zone of the WCZ 1/4 0.6883-0.6880. If the zone test leads to the formation of a sell pattern, then on Monday, it will be possible to open a short position in the direction of the continuation of the medium-term downward impulse.

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Working within the local accumulation zone allows you to use the highs of the last two days to find the point of continued fall.

Deeper correction and growth to WCZ 1/2 0.6916-0.6910 will allow you to get favorable prices for selling. This model needs to be considered, since today sales from WCZ 1/4 are not profitable and a stronger growth of the Australian dollar may be required before continuing the bearish medium-term impulse.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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GBP/USD IPDA Projection HOD/LOD For Friday January 10, 2020

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The economic calendar reminds us that tonight the US is due release two crucial rpeorts on the labor market: nonfarm payrolls & unemployment rate. On the grounds of this data, we project the high/low of the day (H/LOD) for the Cable based on the Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) from the previous day CBDR (Central Bank Dealer Range) with Today's Flout Range. Usually under normal market conditions, the price will move to standard deviation 2 - 4. In this case ideally GBP/USD will move between 1.3029-1.3053 and/or 1.3085-1.3109. Please pay attention to the level above the Flout Range as 1.31321/1.3133 because of confluence between the previous day CBDR STDV 1 and today's Flout STDV 7. Both these levels have a potential turning point as a HOD. For the level below the Flout Range, please pay attention to the area of 1.3052/1.3053 from the CBDR STDV 2 & The Flout STDV 1 with 1.3012-1.3013 from the CBDR STDV 4 with the Flout STDV 6 because all these levels have a possibility to be a LOD and could be a potential turning point level.

(Disclaimer)

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NZD/USD Price Movement For Friday January 10, 2020

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During the realese of US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data, we see the bias of USD/NZD is still bearish. However, there is a zone between the previous 4-hour chart. The previous bullish orderblock & the previous bullish propulsion block are likely to act as a strong support zone (0.6570-0.6589). There is a possibility for this pair to make a turning point at least for fill the liquidity void at least to the bearish fair value gap threshold at 0.6633. As long as the 0.6677 level is not violated, NZD/USD is going to continue its bearish bias.

(Disclaimer)

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for January 10 - 2020

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GBP/JPY is likely to fail to regain the 143.46 peak and break back below support at 142.40 for a new decline below 141.10 towards 139.25 and the ideal target near 137.31. Even if GBP/JPY will be able to hit 143.46 again, the potential towards the upside will be limited to 143.73 for renewed downside pressure through support at 142.79 and more importantly below 142.40 for a decline below 141.10.

R3: 144.23

R2: 143.73

R1: 143.46

Pivot: 142.79

S1: 142.40

S2: 141.96

S3: 141.50

Trading Recommendation:

We sold GBP at 143.04 with a 144.25 stop.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 10 - 2020

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EUR/JPY continues to move higher from the 120.15 low but is very tied. However, as long as support at 121.55 is able to protect the downside slightly higher, corrective high near 121.76 can be expected. Nevertheless, from here or upon the lack of support at 121.55 renewed downside pressure may happen The pair may decline to 120.15 on the way lower to the 119.26 corrective target to complete wave 2 and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave 3 to above 122.50.

R3: 122.03

R2: 121.87

R3: 121.76

Pivot: 121.55

S1: 121.42

S2: 121.07

S3: 120.89

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 121.70 was hit for a 50 pips loss. We will re-sell EUR at 121.75 or upon a break below 121.55

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Control zones for USD/JPY on 01/10/20

The growth of the pair has doubled the average weekly range of movement over the past two days. Such impulses rarely occur on the market, so you need to be careful when making trading decisions. The continuation of growth in the medium term is a priority, however, buying from current levels is not recommended, as the pair is outside the zone of the average weekly range and close to the main weekly control zone 109.90-109.69.

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Sales from a weekly control zone are possible in the case of the formation of a "false breakdown" pattern of yesterday's maximum. Thus, it is necessary to take into account the fact that there is a maximum of December within the weekly control zone, which coincides with the November extremes. This can all become a strong resistance zone.

An alternative model of the continuation of growth has a low probability, however, such a sharp increase in demand can lead to aggressive purchases if today's trading closes above the weekly control zone. This will indicate a huge interest on the part of market buyers, which will block a large accumulation of limit orders for sale.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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USD/CAD pull back in progress below resistance. Further drop expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.30437

Reason for Entry:

Horizontal swing high, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 1.3000

Reason for Take Profit: 50.0% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.30950

Reason for Stop loss:

61.8% Fibonacci retracement

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EUR/JPY approaching support, potential for bounce!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 121.465

Reason for Entry: Horizontal pullback support, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, previous breakout level

Take Profit : 122.031

Reason for Take Profit:

78.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance

Stop Loss: 121.115

Reason for Stop loss:

Horizontal swing low support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement

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USD/JPY potential bounce coming!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry:106.71

Reason for Entry: 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit :108.42

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 105.06

Reason for Stop loss:

Horizontal swing low support

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Control zones of USDCHF on 01/10/2020

The upward corrective movement remains a priority, since there has not been a return to the monthly CZ of December. The main target of growth is the level of 0.9757. WCZ 1/2 0.9774-0.9763 and the range of the average weekly move are located slightly above this mark. If today the pair is testing these marks, then it is likely that the offer will increase and a false breakout pattern will form.

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The current growth is only a small correction from a medium-term point of view. Keeping the price below WCZ 1/2 will indicate continued interest in the strengthening of the Swiss franc by the national bank.

An alternative growth model will be developed if the close of trading this week occurs above the WCZ 1/2. This will open the way for the further weakening of the franc in the medium term. The probability of implementing this model is 30%, so it should be considered as an auxiliary one.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones of USDCAD on 01/10/2020

Yesterday's move beyond the weekly average move caused a sharp reaction. Today the pair is already trading within the zone. The likelihood of continued growth declined to 30% until the end of today. It is important to note that the growth led to a test of the weekly control zone 1.3119-1.3104. This may indicate the end of the corrective upward medium-term movement, which should be used.

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Yesterday's positioning of the US session indicates the appearance of a major offer, since the close of trading is at the opening level.

An alternative model has a low probability, which does not exceed 30%. This suggests that purchases from current marks are not profitable. The first goal of the decline is WCZ 1/2 1.3027-1.3020. The test of this zone will be decisive for the upward movement, and may be the beginning of a new bearish phase. The first sales profits should be focused on this zone.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on January 10. Brexit bill moved to the House of Lords for approval

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The British pound managed to regain its position against the US dollar against yesterday's sharp fall, which was formed after the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney. Let me remind you that Carney announced the possibility of lowering interest rates this year. However, the vote on the Brexit bill and its move to the House of Lords for approval retained optimism among pound buyers. Now the bulls need to regain the resistance of 1.3071, which from a technical point of view will return the market location. Only in this scenario can GBP/USD rise to the highs of 1.3129 and 1.3206, where I recommend taking profits. An equally important task will be to maintain support at 1.3015, which the bears tested yesterday. The next formation of a false breakout on it will be a signal to buy. Otherwise, it is best to open new long positions after updating lows 1.2971 and 1.2904.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Important fundamental statistics are not published today, and the whole emphasis will be reduced to data on the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the United States. Sellers, in order to resume pressure on the pound, it is necessary to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3071, which will be an additional signal to open short positions in the expectation of a further decrease and a breakdown of the low of 1.3015, from which a good upward rebound occurred yesterday. Consolidation below this range will push GBP/USD even lower to 1.2971 and 1.2904, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls turn out to be stronger than sellers, and this can happen only after weak statistics on the US labor market and positive news on the Brexit bill, a return to 1.3071 will cause the pound to increase. In this scenario, it is best to rely on sales after updating the high of 1.3129, or on a rebound from a more powerful resistance of 1.3129.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade returned again in the range of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the preservation of the likelihood of the pound's growth after yesterday's decline.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper boundary of the indicator at 1.3090 will lead to a new rising wave. In the event of a decline, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.3020.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on January 10. Dollar and euro to remain in the channel until release of data on the

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's weekly report on the US labor market, as well as statements by the Federal Reserve representatives, did not significantly affect the technical picture of the pair, which made it possible for euro buyers to stay above the support of 1.1096. While trading is above this range, the main emphasis today in the morning will be at 1.1130, a break and consolidation above which will be a signal to open new long positions, counting on updating highs 1.1166 and 1.1205, where I recommend taking profits. Also, one should not forget about the support of 1.1096, an update of which, together with the formation of a false breakout, will also indicate that the euro could likely grow in the short term. Otherwise, it is best to open long positions in EUR/USD by rebounding from the lows of 1.1069 and 1.1041.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The downward trend continues, and sellers, even despite yesterday's failure with a break of 1.1096, continue to control the market. Now their main task for the first half of the day will be the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1130. This scenario may come true even before the publication of an important report on the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector. However, the bear's no less important task will be to break through and secure below support at 1.1096, which will increase pressure on EUR/USD and lead to updating lows 1.1069 and 1.1041, where I recommend taking profits. However, such a scenario will be probable only in the case of a good growth in the number of employees, which will exceed the forecasts of economists. In the scenario of a return of EUR/USD resistance at 1.1130, it is best to consider short positions for a rebound from highs 1.1166 and 1.1205.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the advantage of euro sellers.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1096 will be a signal to sell the euro. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the area of 1.1116, a breakthrough of which will increase demand.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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Forecast for EUR/USD on January 10, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro closed the day at the level of its opening, which, on the one hand, can be taken for consolidation before a further decline, and on the other hand, a stop before a reversal, since important data on US employment will be published today. A statement by President Trump about the refusal to forcefully resolve the conflict with Iran briefly increased risk appetite in the stock market. The S&P 500 grew by 0.44% on Wednesday while it climbed by 0.67% yesterday as a new record was established (3275). Yields on US government bonds after a sharp increase on Wednesday remain at the same level. This is still a sign of the extinction of unexpected political optimism and, as a consequence, the further strengthening of the dollar. But if the stock market continues to ramp up, the dollar will weaken. We do not expect the euro to turn into medium-term growth, but risk appetites will affect the depth of the upward correction. From this perspective, today's US employment data is particularly important.

The forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change for December is 162 thousand after the November figure of 266 thousand. Our calculation on the basis of weekly unemployment applications gives a comparable figure of 155-170 thousand. If the November indicator is revised downward, which is very likely from similar calculations (approximately up to 210 thousand), then the obtained values will be optimal for continued growth in the stock market, but insufficient for the risky growth of the euro. In this scenario, which we take as the main one, we expect the euro to fall further to the nearest target of 1.1073 - to the point of coincidence of the Fibonacci level of 123.6% with the MACD line on the daily chart.

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Considering yesterday's market indecision, we question if the targeted support of 1.1073 and the price completion of the blue line of the price channel at the level of 1.1045 can be overcome, as previously thought. Such indecision of the market is also indicated by the Marlin oscillator, which lies in a horizontal trend.

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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator indicates a slight desire to correct the market up. In general, the mood on this chart remains down.

Next week we can see the correctional growth of the euro, the height of which will depend on the new incoming data, primarily political. Forecasts on macroeconomic data for the next week in favor of the dollar (increase in inflation indices in the US and worsening trade balance in the eurozone).

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Forecast for GBP/USD on January 10, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound lost 30 points on Thursday. The price consolidated below the MACD line on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is falling in the negative trend zone, but not due to the strong dynamics of the pound's decline, the balance indicator line (red) continues to hold the price, further slowing its decline. The continuation of such a tendency - a decrease in the British pound will lead to an increase in bullish sentiment, the market can take advantage of such confusion.

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Data on US employment will be published today, the forecast for new jobs in the non-agricultural sector for December is 162 thousand, this may be an incentive to further pull down the pound to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.2968. But even in this case, the pound's decline rate may not be enough to overcome the balance indicator line. If it also remains below the price by the opening of Monday, then the correction of the British pound is possible next week. The 1.2968 level is technically strong.

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On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated below the MACD line yesterday - one candle with the whole body was under this line, but at the moment the price is already above the MACD line. Such a false signal is also a sign of a short downward movement, if any (to our target 1.2968). The Marlin oscillator is moving after the price, it is not providing signals. Another price consolidation below the MACD line, as well as under the correction level of 23.6%, will open the nearest target at 1.2968. To move the price to lower targets (1.2820, 1.2730), which are marked on the daily scale, you need a rapid movement of the price down today.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on January 10, 2020

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair has risen by 190 points over the past two days and this raises the question: what was stronger - the fear of a stock market decline with the threat of a US war with Iran or the belief in the stock market growth on Trump's desire to win the presidential election for the second time. We believe that investor pragmatism will prevail and they will be more cautious in conclusions, because in the end the stock market grew not so much from Trump's energy, but from the desire of investors themselves to invest company profits in the purchase of their own shares. Now they don't have such a desire, since the middle of 2019 there has been a large players exit the market and the "housewives" are connecting to the game, which always happens before major market falls. Large investors doubt Trump's victory for the second time, and during the year we can receive more clear signals about his weak political positions. Such signals came, in fact, all the time he was in office.

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From technical positions, the price is above the MACD line on the daily chart, but to consolidate the price, you need to close the current candle above this support. The Marlin oscillator is in a growing position, target at 110.10 - the line of the ascending green channel is open. The return of the price under the MACD line (below 109.40) may subsequently turn the price down to support the red price channel in the region of 108.10.

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The situation is completely upward on the H4 chart. Pressure from the higher timeframe (price drift below 109.40) will direct the quote to the MACD line at 108.76. This will be the first goal on the way to 108.10.

So, USD/JPY continues to grow, but it must be taken carefully.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs on January 10

Forecast for January 10:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1177, 1.1151, 1.1132, 1.1087, 1.1058, 1.1031 and 1.1015. Here, we continue to monitor the local descending structure of January 6. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1087. In this case, the target is 1.1058. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1056 will lead to movement to a potential target - 1.1015. In turn, price consolidation is in the range of 1.1015 - 1.1031 and from here, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1132 - 1.1151. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1177. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the local descending structure of January 6

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1132 Take profit: 1.1150

Buy: 1.1153 Take profit: 1.1175

Sell: 1.1085 Take profit: 1.1060

Sell: 1.1056 Take profit: 1.1034

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3178, 1.3113, 1.3073, 1.3006, 1.2937, 1.2874 and 1.2838. Here, we consider the descending cycle of December 31 as the main structure. We expect further downward movement after a breakdown of the level of 1.3006. In this case, the target is 1.2937. Price consolidation is near this level. Its breakdown will lead to a movement to a potential target - 1.2838. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2838 - 1.2874 and from here, we expect a correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3073 - 1.3113. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3178. This level is a key support for the descending structure of December 31.

The main trend is the descending structure of December 31

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3073 Take profit: 1.3111

Buy: 1.3120 Take profit: 1.3175

Sell: 1.3005 Take profit: 1.2940

Sell: 1.2935 Take profit: 1.2875

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9832, 0.9810, 0.9778, 0.9751, 0.9706, 0.9685 and 0.9664. Here, we determine the next goals from the local ascending structure on January 8. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9751. In this case, the target is 0.9778. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9780 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.9810. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9832, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9706 - 0.9685. There is a high probability of a reversal to the top from this range. The breakdown of the level of 0.9685 will lead to the development of a downward structure. Here, the first potential target is 0.9664.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of January 8

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9751 Take profit: 0.9775

Buy : 0.9780 Take profit: 0.9810

Sell: 0.9705 Take profit: 0.9688

Sell: 0.9683 Take profit: 0.9664

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.78, 110.39, 109.81, 109.58, 109.14, 108.86 and 108.46. Here, we are following the formation of a pronounced ascending structure of January 8. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 109.58 - 109.81. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by an impulsive movement to the level of 110.39. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 110.78, from which we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range 109.14 - 108.86. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.46. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend: building potential for the top of January 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.58 Take profit: 109.80

Buy : 109.83 Take profit: 110.30

Sell: 109.14 Take profit: 108.88

Sell: 108.82 Take profit: 108.50

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3157, 1.3126, 1.3112, 1.3090, 1.3062, 1.3040 and 1.3015. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of January 7. We expect further upward movement after the breakdown of the level of 1.3090. In this case, the target is 1.3112. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3112 - 1.3126. We consider the level of 1.3157 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3062 - 1.3040. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3015. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of January 7

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3090 Take profit: 1.3112

Buy : 1.3126 Take profit: 1.3155

Sell: 1.3062 Take profit: 1.3042

Sell: 1.3038 Take profit: 1.3015

analytics5e17cfb732621.png

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6926, 0.6893, 0.6875, 0.6851, 0.6827, 0.6793 and 0.6770. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the downward cycle of December 31. We expect a short-term downward movement in the range 0.6851 - 0.6827. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 0.6793. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6770. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 0.6875 - 0.6893. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6926. This level is a key support for the descending structure of December 31.

The main trend is the descending structure of December 31

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6875 Take profit: 0.6890

Buy: 0.6895 Take profit: 0.6922

Sell : 0.6850 Take profit : 0.6830

Sell: 0.6825 Take profit: 0.6795

analytics5e17cfd39f6dc.png

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.61, 122.30, 121.82, 121.30, 121.06 and 120.71. Here, we are following the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of January 8. We expect the continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of the level of 121.82. In this case, the target is 122.30. For now, we consider the level of 122.61 to be a potential value for the upward trend; upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 121.30 - 121.06. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 120.71. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of January 8

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.82 Take profit: 122.26

Buy: 121.32 Take profit: 122.60

Sell: 121.30 Take profit: 121.08

Sell: 121.04 Take profit: 120.76

analytics5e17cff375abb.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 145.11, 144.53, 143.68, 142.34, 141.87, 141.31 and 140.66. Here, we are following the development of the upward structure of January 3, after the abolition of the downward trend. We expect further upward movement after the passage at the price level of 143.70. In this case, the target is 144.53. Price consolidation is near this value. For the potential level for the top, we consider level 145.11, from which we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 142.34 - 141.87. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 141.31. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of January 3

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 143.70 Take profit: 144.50

Buy: 144.55 Take profit: 145.10

Sell: 142.34 Take profit: 141.90

Sell: 141.85 Take profit: 141.35

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Comprehensive analysis of movement options for #USDX vs EUR/USD vs GBP/USD vs USD/JPY (DAILY) in January 2020

2020 has started - what surprises could be in January? Here's a comprehensive analysis of movement options for #USDX vs EUR/USD vs GBP/USD vs USD/JPY (DAILY) for January 2020

Minor operational scale (daily time frame)

____________________

US dollar Index

The movement of the #USDX dollar index for January 2020 will be determined by developing the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (97.35 - 97.15 - 96.90) and the equilibrium zone (97.35 - 97.65 - 97.95) of the Minuette operational scale. The markup is presented on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the upper boundary ISL61.8 (resistance level of 97.95) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks will confirm the continuation of the upward movement of the dollar index to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (98.60 - 98.95 - 99.30) of the Minor operational scale forks.

The breakdown of the support level of 96.90 on the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel together with the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line Minor (96.80) is a variant of the development of the downward movement #USDX to the targets:

- initial SSL line (96.45) of the Minuette operational scale forks;

- lower boundary of ISL61.8 (96.20) of the equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks.

The markup of #USDX movement options in January 2020 is shown on the animated chart.

analytics5e1742ad0ec49.jpg

____________________

Euro vs US dollar

For January 2020, the development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD will also be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1160 - 1.1133 - 1.1105) and the equilibrium zone (1.1120 - 1.1080 - 1.1045) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The markup is presented on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the support level 1.1045 on the lower boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks will make it possible to continue the downward movement of the single European currency to the goals:

- the final Schiff Line Minuette (1.1020);

- local minimum (1.0980);

- LTL control line (1.0935) of the Minor operational scale forks.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1160 (the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel) is an option to continue the development of the upward movement of EUR / USD to the initial SSL (1.1230) and the control UTL (1.1255) lines of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options in January 2020 are shown in the animated chart.

analytics5e1742d850379.jpg

____________________

Great Britain pound vs US dollar

Range development and breakdown direction :

  • resistance level of 1.3155 - 1/2 Median Line Minor;
  • support level of 1.3090 - reaction line RL28.2 Minor ;

For January 2020, the development trend of Her Majesty's currency movement GBP / USD will begin to be determined.

In case of breakdown of the support level of 1.3090 on the reaction line RL38.2 Minor, the downward movement of the currency of Her Majesty can be continued to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.2735 - 1.2515 - 1.2290) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The breakdown of 1/2 Median Line Minor (resistance level of 1.3155) will make it relevant to continue the upward movement of GBP / USD to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.3405 - 1.3800 - 1.4200) of the Minor operational scale forks.

The details of the GBP / USD movement in January 2020 can be seen on the animated chart.

analytics5e1742f7ede1c.jpg

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

The development of the movement of the currency of the "country of the rising sun" USD / JPY for January 2020 will also depend on the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 109.40 (1/2 Median Line Minor);
  • support level of 109.00 (final Shiff Line Minor).

A consecutive breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line Minor (resistance level of 109.40) and the UTL control line (109.75) of the Minuette operational scale forks will direct the movement of the rising sun currency to the upper boundary of the ISL61.8 (110.50) equilibrium zoneof the Minor operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching maximum 112.40.

The breakdown of the final Schiff Line Minor - support level of 109.00 - the option of developing a downward movement of USD / JPY to the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (108.45) equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (107.90 - 107.30 - 106.70) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement in January 2020 on the animated chart.

analytics5e174319e6e74.jpg

____________________

The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power factors correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis for major currency pairs on January 9

Dear colleagues,

For the euro / dollar pair, we are following the development of the downward structure of January 6. The level of 1.1087 is the key resistance. For the pound / dollar pair, subsequent targets on the H1 scale are determined from the descending structure on December 31. For the dollar / franc pair, the price forms a local upward structure from January 8. The level of 0.9751 is the key resistance. For the dollar / yen pair, the price forms expressed initial conditions for the top of January 8. The development of this structure is expected after the breakdown of the level of 109.81. For the euro / yen pair, the price canceled the development of the downward structure and currently forms the potential for the top of January 8. For the pound / yen pair, we consider the upward structure on January 3 as the main one. The level of 143.68 is the key resistance.

Forecast for January 9:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

analytics5e175e37ed1ce.png

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1177, 1.1151, 1.1132, 1.1087, 1.1058, 1.1031 and 1.1015. Here, we continue to monitor the local descending structure of January 6. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1087. In this case, the target is 1.1058. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1056 will lead to movement to a potential target - 1.1015. In turn, price consolidation is in the range of 1.1015 - 1.1031 and from here, we expect a upward rollback.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1132 - 1.1151. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1177. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the local descending structure of January 6

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1132 Take profit: 1.1150

Buy: 1.1153 Take profit: 1.1175

Sell: 1.1085 Take profit: 1.1060

Sell: 1.1056 Take profit: 1.1034

analytics5e175e5dae59b.png

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3178, 1.3113, 1.3073, 1.3006, 1.2937, 1.2874 and 1.2838. Here, we consider the descending cycle of December 31 as the main structure. We expect further downward movement after a breakdown of the level of 1.3006. In this case, the target is 1.2937. Price consolidation is near this level. Its breakdown will lead to a movement to a potential target - 1.2838. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2838 - 1.2874 and from here, we expect a correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3073 - 1.3113. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3178. This level is a key support for the descending structure of December 31.

The main trend is the descending structure of December 31

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3073 Take profit: 1.3111

Buy: 1.3120 Take profit: 1.3175

Sell: 1.3005 Take profit: 1.2940

Sell: 1.2935 Take profit: 1.2875

analytics5e175e78c1cd2.png

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9832, 0.9810, 0.9778, 0.9751, 0.9706, 0.9685 and 0.9664. Here, we determine the next goals from the local ascending structure on January 8. We expect further upward movement after the breakdown of the level of 0.9751. In this case, the target is 0.9778. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9780 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.9810. The potential value for the to

p is the level of 0.9832. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward rollback.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9706 - 0.9685. There is a high probability of a turn up from this range. The breakdown of the level of 0.9685 will lead to the development of a downward structure. Here, the first potential target is 0.9664.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of January 8

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9751 Take profit: 0.9775

Buy : 0.9780 Take profit: 0.9810

Sell: 0.9705 Take profit: 0.9688

Sell: 0.9683 Take profit: 0.9664

analytics5e175e9456fb3.png

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.78, 110.39, 109.81, 109.58, 109.14, 108.86 and 108.46. Here, we are following the formation of a pronounced ascending structure of January 8. We expect short-term upward movement in the range of 109.58 - 109.81. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by an impulsive movement to the level of 110.39. Price consolidation is near this level. We consider the level 110.78 to be a potential value for the top, from which we expect a downward rollback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range 109.14 - 108.86. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.46. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend: building potential for the top of January 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.58 Take profit: 109.80

Buy : 109.83 Take profit: 110.30

Sell: 109.14 Take profit: 108.88

Sell: 108.82 Take profit: 108.50

analytics5e175eb140842.png

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3157, 1.3126, 1.3112, 1.3090, 1.3062, 1.3040 and 1.3015. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of January 7. We expect further upward movement after the breakdown of the level of 1.3090. In this case, the target is 1.3112. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3112 - 1.3126. We consider the level of 1.3157 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a downward rollback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3062 - 1.3040. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3015. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of January 7

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3090 Take profit: 1.3112

Buy : 1.3126 Take profit: 1.3155

Sell: 1.3062 Take profit: 1.3042

Sell: 1.3038 Take profit: 1.3015

analytics5e175ecf2775b.png

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6926, 0.6893, 0.6875, 0.6851, 0.6827, 0.6793 and 0.6770. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the downward cycle of December 31. We expect a short-term downward movement in the range 0.6851 - 0.6827. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 0.6793. We consider the level of 0.6770 to be a potential value for the bottom; upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward rollback.

We expect short-term upward movement in the range 0.6875 - 0.6893. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6926. This level is a key support for the downward structure from December 31.

The main trend is the descending structure of December 31

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6875 Take profit: 0.6890

Buy: 0.6895 Take profit: 0.6922

Sell : 0.6850 Take profit : 0.6830

Sell: 0.6825 Take profit: 0.6795

analytics5e175eede7fa6.png

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.61, 122.30, 121.82, 121.30, 121.06 and 120.71. Here, we are following the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of January 8. We expect the continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of the level of 121.82. In this case, the target is 122.30. For now, we consider the level of 122.61 to be a potential value for the upward trend; upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 121.30 - 121.06. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 120.71. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of January 8

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.82 Take profit: 122.26

Buy: 121.32 Take profit: 122.60

Sell: 121.30 Take profit: 121.08

Sell: 121.04 Take profit: 120.76

analytics5e175f09dde75.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 145.11, 144.53, 143.68, 142.34, 141.87, 141.31 and 140.66. Here, we are following the development of the upward structure of January 3, after the abolition of the downward trend. We expect further upward movement after the passage at the price level of 143.70. In this case, the target is 144.53. Price consolidation is near this value. The potential level for the top is considered to be the level of 145.11, from which we expect a downward rollback.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 142.34 - 141.87. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 141.31. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of January 3

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 143.70 Take profit: 144.50

Buy: 144.55 Take profit: 145.10

Sell: 142.34 Take profit: 141.90

Sell: 141.85 Take profit: 141.35

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. January 9. Results of the day. Mark Carney allowed a reduction in the key rate, which everyone has been waiting

4-hour timeframe

analytics5e17c40b500bd.png

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 135p - 106p - 111p - 118p - 89p.

The average volatility over the past 5 days: 112p (high).

The British pound on Thursday, January 9, plunged during the European trading session, after which it quickly came to its senses. Thus, at the moment, we can say that the flat is canceled, since the price has already overcome the lower Bollinger band, and the indicator itself can now begin to expand down. We believe that the general fundamental background remains in favor of the US dollar, despite the US military conflict with Iran, which, according to the latest information, is actually gradually disappearing. We still believe that the pound should "repay all debts" to the US currency for unreasonable growth to the level of $1.35. Moreover, macroeconomic statistics from the UK continues to leave much to be desired, the future of the country is still shrouded in fog, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, after the first conversation with Boris Johnson, said that it would take much more than a year to sign a comprehensive agreement. In principle, these words can be regarded as a hint to Johnson that he should not count on the accelerated work regime of the European Union in order to catch up by December 31, 2020. Thus, the issue of signing a trade deal between London and Brussels is a very subtle one.

Meanwhile, the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, made a speech today. In the morning we talked about how long it was time for the British regulator to intervene in the country's economy, as macroeconomic indicators continued to fall. We also expected that Carney would open the veil over the plans of the Bank of England regarding monetary policy. Fortunately for traders, the central bank chief did not once again evade answers to direct questions with general phrases. He clearly stated that if the economy continues to slow down, the central bank will reduce the key rate. It is not clear how long and how much the British economy must slow down before the BoE intervenes. However, Carney indirectly answered this question, noting that the central bank does not have much space for influencing the economy through monetary policy and rates. The current rate is 0.75%, so the central bank can lower the rate 2-3 times, but clearly does not want to bring it to zero or a negative value. Carney also noted that the BoE could also expand its asset repurchase program. At the same time, market participants still do not expect monetary policy easing at a meeting on January 30. Carney is set to leave his post in March 2020 and seems to do the same as Mario Draghi - lower his key rate at his last or penultimate meeting. In our opinion, this will be a wise decision, since you must first wait for the beginning of the transition period of Brexit. This is precisely what the British regulator has regularly hinted at in recent months - the uncertainty of the consequences for the economy at a time when Brexit will begin.

Thus, the GBP/USD currency pair may resume a downward trend, as most technical and fundamental factors speak in favor of this.

Trading recommendations:

GBP/USD overcame the Ichimoku cloud and resumed its downward movement. Thus, it is recommended that traders continue to trade lower with the target of the support level of 1.2993 (which coincides with the lower boundary of the volatility channel on January 9). It is recommended that purchases of British currency be returned no earlier than when the price is consolidated above the Kijun-sen line with the first target level of 1.3204.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: pound continues to follow policy

analytics5e17c69d84327.jpg

The British currency marked the New Year with a sharp increase against the US dollar. However, the pound had a hangover in early January: the GBP/USD pair plunged below the bottom of the 31st figure.

Data on business activity in the UK services sector for December became a kind of pickle for the pound.

The Purchasing Managers Index managed to cling to the psychologically important mark of 50, and new orders grew at the fastest pace in five months.

I am glad that the British currency is beginning to show sensitivity to macro statistics. However, the main driver for changing quotes is still politics. Investors continue to monitor the situation around Brexit.

Relations between London and Brussels remain tense. The new European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, expressed serious concern about Boris Johnson's intentions at the legislative level to limit the transition period to December 31, 2020. The British prime minister believes that it will take less than 12 months to sign a trade agreement. It seems that he decided to bargain with the EU, because the draft "divorce" agreement is already on the table.

It should be understood: even the UK's divorce from the EU does not isolate the country from the influence of external demand. Great Britain is characterized by the same trends as the United States or the eurozone, namely, the weakness of industry and the stability of the service sector, a strong labor market and sluggish inflation.

If the global economy begins to recover against the backdrop of the end of the US and China trade conflict, this will have a positive effect on the UK export and manufacturing sector and, accordingly, on the pound.

However, this will be later, but for now the GBP/USD pair is still consolidating, remaining below the resistance level of 1.3285.

The decline is expected to be held back by the 55-day moving average of 1.2993. On December 23, the pair noted a low of 1.2908, and while trading takes place above it, the "bullish" mood should remain in order to retest the December high of 1.3515.

A breakout of the support of 1.2908 will bring into the game a 200-day moving average of 1.2690.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. January 9. Results of the day. Trump's surprising response to Iran. China and the US to sign a trade agreement on

4-hour timeframe

analytics5e17bdea95422.png

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 59p - 55p - 49p - 64p - 67p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 59p (average).

The EUR/USD pair ends the penultimate trading day of the week not only with a downward trend, but also with a weakening downward movement. In general, we can say that an upward correction, which, in principle, would have been logical today, did not happen, but traders did not find sufficient reasons for new sales of the European currency. Thus, the euro fell by several points during the day, having spent the entire trading day near the support level of 1.1109. Slowly, the euro/dollar is approaching its local lows near the level of 1.1069, with which certain problems may arise. Nevertheless, as we have repeatedly noted, the general fundamental background remains on the side of the US currency, so we believe that the downward trend will continue to form, but, as before, we recommend that technical indicators be taken into account as well.

The entire macroeconomic background of the day consisted of data on changes in industrial production in Germany, as well as the level of unemployment in the European Union. Both reports cannot be called excessively important, therefore, it is not surprising that none of them caused strong movements in the forex market. Although statistics from Germany today was unexpected, pleased traders, but at the same time again did not change the overall picture of things in Germany and the European Union. The report on industrial production was stronger than expected by traders and experts. In monthly terms, the growth amounted to 1.1% with the forecast of + 0.7%, and in annual terms - losses of 2.6% instead of the projected 3.8%. What do these numbers mean? That the situation in the industrial sector may begin to improve in the near future. However, we believe that it is too early to draw such conclusions. First, the German industry is still experiencing a decline in annual terms. Secondly, business activity indices in the manufacturing sector of Germany and the EU remain "below the plinth". Thus, we believe that the current high value of industrial production in Germany is somewhat an accident. Perhaps that is why this report did not provide any support for the euro. Furthermore, the unemployment rate in the European Union remained the same at 7.5%, so there is simply nothing to talk about here. There has not been a single important macroeconomic publication in the United States today.

Meanwhile, official information arrived that the Chinese delegation, headed by Vice Premier of the State Council of the PRC Liu He, will visit the White House on January 13-15 in order to sign a "first phase" trade deal with Donald Trump. The parties agreed on the conditions of the first stage of the general agreement on December 13, now it is time to sign.

However, the topic of the trade conflict between China and the United States has now clearly receded into the background. Moreover, we believe that President Trump is doing his best at this time to smooth out any conflicts in which the United States are involved. As we said last year, Trump needs stability before the election. Trump needs victory before the election. He needs economic growth before the election. If there seems to be no problems with the last paragraph, then for the first two there are obviously questions. The conflict with Iran, which began neatly on New Year's Eve, ended as if the parties simply spoke impartially to each other and calmed down. The millionth funeral of General Soleimani, the fierce promises of the Iranian government to avenge, the attacks on military bases in Iraq - and not a single dead American "contractor" ... Iranian military units fired idle? President Trump made a statement, allegedly early warning systems warned in advance American soldiers who managed to take cover. However, the whole conflict looks from the outside as if Iran did not want to answer the United States, realizing that if there are real losses among American soldiers, then the blow Trump spoke about (on 52 objects of Iranian culture) can really be dealt. On the one hand, it's good that we can declare de-escalation of the conflict, on the other hand, it all looks very strange. World analysts have also noted a certain oddity of Trump's retaliatory move, which only announced the introduction of new sanctions against Iran. The kind of sanctions is unknown. It seems that Trump does not need this war before the presidential election, and Iran does not need this war, since the enemy is very strong. Trump is not on the principle now in trade negotiations with China, although we still do not know all aspects of the trade deal that will be signed on January 13-15. The criticism of Jerome Powell, who previously fell under the "shelling" of the White House every week, ended. The topic stalled with the impeachment of Trump, who, most likely, will not be able to overcome the Senate. In general, we believe that in the last year of his presidency, Trump will seek to show the result and will no longer tense the situation on all fronts, as he did in recent years.

Trading recommendations:

EUR/USD generally continues to move down. Thus, now it is recommended for traders to trade lower with the target at the support level of 1.1060 and reduce shorts if the MACD indicator turns up. It will be possible to consider purchases of the euro/dollar pair no earlier than the reverse consolidation of the price above the critical Kijun-sen line with the first target of 1.1224.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com