AUDJPY is approaching 1st resistance, possible reversal!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 74.19

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing high

Take Profit :73.37

Reason for Take Profit: 78% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss:75.09

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high resistance

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GBPUSD facing bearish pressure, potential for further drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.25111

Reason for Entry: Horizontal overlap resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci extension

Take Profit: 1.23546

Reason for Take Profit: 100% fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.25844

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension

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Fractal analysis of main currency pairs on June 23rd

For the euro/dollar pair, the price forms expressed initial conditions for the top of June 22. The level of 1.1212 is the key support. For the pound/dollar pair, the price also forms the potential for the top of June 22. The level of 1.2388 is the key support. For the dollar/franc pair, the price is in equilibrium. The level of 0.9462 is the key resistance for the downward movement. For the dollar/yen pair, the price is in equilibrium. For the euro/yen pair, we continue to monitor the local structure from June 16. The level of 120.22 is the key support. For the pound/yen pair, the price forms the initial conditions for the top of June 22. The level of 134.40 is the key resistance, while the level of 132.69 is the key support.

Outlook for June 23:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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The key levels for the euro / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.1397, 1.1368, 1.1324, 1.1286, 1.1238, 1.1212 and 1.1168. Here, the price forms expressed initial conditions for the top of June 22. Further upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1286. In this case, the target is 1.1324. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1325 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 1.1368. We consider the level of 1.1397 to be a potential value for the top. We expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback upon reaching which.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1238 - 1.1212. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the target is 1.1168. We expect the formation of a local potential for the bottom to this level.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of June 22

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1286 Take profit: 1.1322

Buy: 1.1326 Take profit: 1.1368

Sell: 1.1238 Take profit: 1.1213

Sell: 1.1210 Take profit: 1.1170

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The key levels for the pound / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.2745, 1.2684, 1.2638, 1.2572, 1.2517, 1.2419, 1.2388 and 1.2334. Here, the price forms the initial conditions for the top of June 22. Further upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2517. In this case, the target is 1.2572. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.2572 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 1.2638. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2638 - 1.2684. A potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 1.2745. We expect a downward pullback upon reaching which.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range 1.2419 - 1.2388. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the development of a downward movement. Here, the first goal is 1.2334.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of June 22

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2517 Take profit: 1.2570

Buy: 1.2573 Take profit: 1.2638

Sell: 1.2388 Take profit: 1.2335

Sell: Take profit:

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The key levels for the dollar / franc pair on the H1 scale are: 0.9687, 0.9618, 0.9561, 0.9488, 0.9462, 0.9416 and 0.9373. Here the price has entered an equilibrium state. Further upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9561. In this case, the target is 0.9618. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9618 will lead to a pronounced movement to the potential target - 0.9687. We expect a downward pullback from this level.

A consolidated movement is expected in the range of 0.9488 - 0.9462. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper movement. Here, the target is 0.9416. This is the key support level for the top.

The main trend is the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9561 Take profit: 0.9615

Buy : 0.9620 Take profit: 0.9685

Sell: 0.9460 Take profit: 0.9418

Sell: 0.9414 Take profit: 0.9375

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The key levels for the dollar / yen pair on the scale are : 108.39, 108.15, 107.67, 107.34, 106.64, 106.07, 105.78 and 105.08. Here the price is in equilibrium. Further downward movement is expected after a breakdown of the level of 106.64. In this case, the target is 106.07. A short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 106.07 - 105.78. We consider the level of 105.08 to be a potential value for the downward trend. We expect an upward pullback upon reaching which.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range 107.34 - 107.67. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 108.15. We expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed before the noise range of 108.15 - 108.39.

The main trend is the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.35 Take profit: 107.66

Buy : 107.69 Take profit: 108.15

Sell: 106.64 Take profit: 106.07

Sell: 105.76 Take profit: 105.10

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The key levels for the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.3967, 1.3889, 1.3779, 1.3737, 1.3683, 1.3560, 1.3510 and 1.3452. Here the price is in equilibrium. Further upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3683. In this case, the target is 1.3737. Price consolidation is near this level. The price passing the noise range 1.3737 - 1.3779 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3889. We consider the level 1.3967 to be a potential value for the top. We expect a downward pullback upon reaching which.

A consolidated movement is possible in the range of 1.3560 - 1.3510. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the development of a deeper correction. Here, the goal is 1.3452. This is a key support level for the top and its breakdown will allow you to count on movement to the level of 1.3371.

The main trend is the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3683 Take profit: 1.3737

Buy : 1.3780 Take profit: 1.3888

Sell: 1.3508 Take profit: 1.3452

Sell: 1.3450 Take profit: 1.3371

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The key levels for the Australian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are : 0.7052, 0.6990, 0.6941, 0.6849, 0.6789, 0.6741, 0.6705. 0.6613 and 0.6549. Here the price is in equilibrium. The resumption of the development of the downward trend is possible after the breakdown of the level of 0.6849. Here, the first goal is 0.6789. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to rely on the movement to 0.6741. The price passing the noise range 0.6741 - 0.6705 will lead to a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.6613. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 0.6549. We expect an upward pullback upon reaching which.

We expect a short-term upward movement in the range of 0.6941 - 0.6990. The breakdown of the level of 0.6990 will lead to the cancellation of the downward trend. In this case, the first target is 0.7052.

The main trend is the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6941 Take profit: 0.6988

Buy: 0.6992 Take profit: 0.7050

Sell : 0.6849 Take profit : 0.6790

Sell: 0.6787 Take profit: 0.6741

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The key levels for the euro / yen pair on the H1 scale are: 122.40, 121.93, 121.57, 121.08, 120.28, 119.94 and 119.29. Here, the price forms expressed initial conditions for the top of June 22. Further upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 121.08. In this case the target is 121.57. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 121.57 - 121.93. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 122.40. We expect a downward pullback upon reaching which.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 120.28 - 119.94. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the target is 119.29. Price consolidation is near this level.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of June 22

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.08 Take profit: 121.57

Buy: 121.59 Take profit: 121.91

Sell: 120.28 Take profit: 119.95

Sell: 119.92 Take profit: 119.31

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The key levels for the pound / yen pair on the H1 scale are : 136.35, 135.65, 135.15, 134.40, 133.86, 133.15, 132.69, 132.17 and 131.71. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of June 22. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 133.86 - 134.40. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 135.15. Price consolidation is in the range of 135.15 - 135.65. We consider the level 136.35 to be a potential value for the top. We expect a downward pullback upon reaching this level.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range 133.15 - 132.69. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the goal is 132.17. This is the key support level for the top.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle of June 22

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 133.86 Take profit: 134.40

Buy: 134.44 Take profit: 135.15

Sell: 133.15 Take profit: 132.70

Sell: 132.66 Take profit: 132.17

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Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on June 23, 2020

Hello, dear colleagues!

Despite the fact that COVID-19 continues its deadly march around the world, threatening its second wave, yesterday there was some risk aversion in the currency market. Perhaps this was caused by improving macroeconomic indicators. Although, as we remember, market participants have recently reacted very sluggishly to fundamental factors.

Some reports were published on the first trading day of the current week. Thus, the consumer confidence index in the Eurozone was better than expected at minus 15 and came out at minus 14.7. It also surpassed the previous value (minus 17.89) of the economic activity index of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which was in positive territory and amounted to 2.61. However, sales in the secondary housing market in the US were lower than expected by economists.

Today in the Eurozone and the USA, an index of business confidence in the manufacturing sector and the service sector will be published. Also, the United States of America will provide data on new home sales and publish the index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve of Richmond.

If we return to the topic of coronavirus, the largest spike in infections continues to be in South and North America, namely in Brazil and the United States. The difficult situation with COVID-19 is observed in India, where the number of daily infections is also growing steadily.

Daily

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In yesterday's review of the main currency pair, the daily EUR/USD chart was overlooked. We will start today's analysis of the technical picture for the euro/dollar with the daily chart.

As already noted at the beginning of the article, the US currency was not in demand among investors at yesterday's trading and weakened across a wide range of the market. The euro/dollar currency pair strengthened significantly at the trading on June 22 and ended Monday's session at 1.1259. It is characteristic that the breakdown of the support level of 1.1212 has to be recognized as false. Three consecutive daily candles did not close below this level, and the pair returned above this level yesterday.

Today, at the time of writing, the euro/dollar is trying to continue strengthening, the pair has already updated yesterday's highs at 1.1269 and was rising to 1.1280. However, the euro bulls are not yet able to stay near this level. It seems that the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which runs at 1.1285, will play an important role as a resistance. If today's trading ends above Tenkan, this will give additional strength to the euro bulls and they will rush to 1.1353. However, do not forget about the important technical level of 1.1300, which can block further progress of the course up.

Strong support was noted at yesterday's lows of 1.168, which also showed the minimum values on June 19. If this mark is pushed, the next targets of players to lower the rate will be the broken resistance level of 1.148, as well as the Kijun line, which is located just below, at 1.146. In my opinion, these are the immediate reference points of price movement on the daily chart.

H4

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At the 4-hour chart, the pair can not go up to the simple moving average, which provides a strong enough resistance to attempts to grow. If 50 MA is still broken and the pair is fixed higher, you can try buying the euro/dollar pair on the rollback to this moving average. The long tail (shadow) of the previous candle may indicate the market's desire to move up, but whether it will turn out or not will become known after the closing of trading today. You can also look at the opening of long positions after a short-term decline to 1.1247. I fully assume that from here there will be a rebound up and the pair will continue to move in the north direction

For sales, you need to see reversal candlestick patterns on a four-hour or hourly chart in the price zone of 1.1267-1.1277. If there are any, you can sell, but with small goals, in the area of 1.1225-1.1210. By the way, for those who will stand in purchases for the euro/dollar pair, I also do not recommend setting large goals. The price zone of 1.1300-1.1325 is quite suitable for fixing the profit of long positions on the main currency pair.

Good luck!

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GBP/JPY Price Movement For June 23, 2020

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Having touched the Daily Bearish Orderblock of 133.47 according to the 4-hour chart, the GBP/JPY pair seems to be halting its upward movement. It is now trying to reach the 131.74 level as the nearest Liquidity Pool will be purged as long as the pair does not retrace upwards and closes above 135.11. Then, 131.74 is viewed as the target for this pair.

(Disclaimer)

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Hot forecast and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on June 23, 2020

Everything went exactly as planned yesterday. The nearly empty macroeconomic calendar, in itself, became a good background for the beginning of a rebound in the dollar, which until then had been steadily growing for several consecutive days. At the end of the day, these successes were consolidated by US statistics on home sales in the secondary market. Honestly, the real estate market was the main topic of yesterday, as it began with information that the level of overdue mortgages in the United States was already equal to the record high that was achieved in 2011. And in truth, such news should be terrifying, since the record high level of delinquencies in mortgages was then a consequence of the 2008 crisis. It took about three years to achieve. A few months were enough for everything

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At the same time, data on home sales in the secondary market were even worse than forecasts, and instead of a 2.0% decline, we saw a drop of as much as 9.7%. In absolute numbers, sales fell from 4,330,000 homes to 3,910,000 homes. Sales have been declining for three months already, and during that time they have decreased by almost a third.

Secondary Home Sales (United States):

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Of course, today I want to pay attention to preliminary data on business activity indices, but most likely, they will not have any effect. For the simple reason that the growth of all indices is projected both in Europe and in the United States. And almost certainly, these forecasts will come true, as around the world they confidently remove the restrictions imposed due to the coronavirus epidemic. So the business has reason for optimism. And if growth is expected everywhere, then these data will offset each other, and it will be difficult for investors to give preference to one or another currency. So it is possible that the US real estate market will determine investor sentiment today. After all, data on home sales in the secondary market was published yesterday, then the primary could be released today. At the same time, the sales volume of new homes, it seems, should grow by 2.5%. From 623,000 to 635,000. Of course, if this forecast is confirmed, then the dollar will receive a reason for growth. However, given the results of home sales in the secondary market, as well as the situation with overdue mortgages, it is likely that there will be a decline instead of growth. But in this case, the dollar will already be forced to continue its decline against the single European currency.

New Home Sales (United States):

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see an upward turn from the range of 1.1180, which returned the quote to the area of 1.1250/1.1280, where a slight stagnation formed. The current fluctuation is the structure of the recovery process from June 11, where a violation of the local act can occur if the price is consolidated higher than 1.1350.

Regarding volatility, there are high indicators on a daily basis, which indicates the prevailing speculative interest in the market.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, the daily period, it is worth highlighting that the area where trading forces interact at 1.1440/1.1500 is the main point of resistance in the current measure.

We can assume a temporary price fluctuation within the limits of the deceleration of 1.1250/1.1280, where if the previously set upward stroke is held, the quote will return to the area of 1.1300/1.1320.

Specifying all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider purchase positions higher than 1.1280, with the prospect of a move to 1.1300-1.1320.

- We consider selling positions as a recovery process lower than 1.1250, with the prospect of a move to 1.1200-1.1180.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments relative to hourly periods signal a purchase due to an upward spiral of long positions from the level of 1.1180. Daytime periods are still in a downward spiral, signaling a sale.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 23, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The UK Financial Supervision Authority (FCA) has called on all national cryptocurrency companies to register with a supervisory authority.

According to the FCA statement, companies must submit completed applications by June 30. The regulator says that the deadline is necessary to ensure that all applications will be considered by the end of the grace period on January 10, 2021.

The regulatory body has set requirements for compliance with certain types of cryptography activities that include a full risk assessment on anti-money laundering (AML) and terrorist financing (CTF) rules.

Businesses operating in the United Kingdom will have to implement both monitoring and control systems to eliminate potential threats related to AML and CTF. Failure to meet the deadline by 2021 means that they will have to stop operating in this country.

The deadline of June 30 "allows FCA to check submitted applications and ask companies questions" - we read in a statement.

In addition, traditional fintech companies dealing with cryptographic assets that are already authorized under the 2000 Services and Financial Markets Act, the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 or the Payment Services Regulations 2017 will also have to apply for streamlining of regulatory monitoring.

The supervisor warned that "it will proactively monitor compliance by companies with new regulations and take swift action where companies do not meet the desired standards."

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair is testing the lower channel line seen at the level of $242.50 after the bounce from the technical support located at the level of $225.84. Despite the bounce, Ethereum is still trading below the key technical resistance seen at the level of $252.03. Moreover, any sustained violation of the nearest technical support located at the level of $238.68 might accelerate the drop towards the next support seen at the level of $235.42. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $257.09

WR2 - $246.02

WR1 - $2437.53

Weekly Pivot - $227.45

WS1 - $218.65

WS2 - $207.59

WS3 - $198.98

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 23, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Wang Wong Zhongmin, former vice chairman of the Chinese National Social Security Fund Council, announced that China has completed the development of the architecture of the back office of China's digital currency, the central bank (CBDC).

Wang announced this during the Fintech 2020 online forum organized by the Tencent Fintech Research Institute and the Fintech 50 Forum in Beijing.

With so many existing and developed cryptocurrencies, China is trying to create a payment infrastructure in which these currencies could coexist with sovereign digital currencies. Wang said that such a system would create an environment in the digital currency space for healthier competition and cooperation.

According to Wang, the epidemic has increased competition in the digital currency space, and more technology giants and governments have become interested in creating a better digital payment infrastructure. He also noted the development of Libra.

Wang said in the forum that CBDC in China is currently being tested. Earlier, there were also reports that the country began developing regulations that would help launch and implement the digital currency.

The Chinese technology and payment giants Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei and China Merchants Bank are believed to cooperate with the People's Bank of China in developing and testing.

Although everyone is still not sure when China plans to officially release the digital currency, head of Ledger Vault from the Asia-Pacific region Glenn Woo said that the digital Yuan will probably be the first virtual currency supported by the state around the world.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a Pin Bar candlestick patter after the rally has hit the key technical resistance seen at the level of $9,704. This might be an early indication that the rally is over and bears are trying to regain the control over the market. Please keep an eye on the key short-term technical support located at the level of $9,530 as any violation of this level might accelerate the drop towards the level of $9,381. The key technical support is located at the level of $8,8858. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,274

WR2 - $9,895

WR1 - $9,583

Weekly Pivot - $9,212

WS1 - $8,912

WS2 - $8,511

WS3 - $8,252

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 23, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

After the GBP/USD pair has almost hit the 1:1 market geometry level located at 1.2328, the bounce from this level was solid and almost hit the upper descending channel boundary. The bulls had hit the second target located at the level of 1.2466 with a high made at the level of 1.2505. Currently, the price started to reverse a little, but there are still chances for the bounce to continue higher. Please notice, that to break out from the short-term descending channel zone, the bull would have to violated the level of 1.2580.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2859

WR2 - 1.2772

WR1 - 1.2508

Weekly Pivot - 1.2419

WS1 - 1.2165

WS2 - 1.2080

WS3 - 1.1826

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for June 23, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has tested the lower level of the support range located at 1.1185 and bounced towards the short-term trend line resistance located around the level of 1.1265. The oversold market conditions might help the bulls to test the nearest technical resistance, but they must break through the short-term trend line resistance in order to regain the control over the market. Any violation of the level of 1.1148 will accelerate the sell-off towards the next technical support seen at 1.0009. So, it is important for bulls to defend this level, but only a sustained violation of the short-term trend line resistance would put them back into control (around the level of 1.1300).

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1456

WR2 - 1.1397

WR1 - 1.1266

Weekly Pivot - 1.1215

WS1 - 1.1074

WS2 - 1.1031

WS3 - 1.0903

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Investors continue to believe that the global economy will recover, which will lead to dollar's future depreciation (local

The currency market remains extremely "boring" in the wake of the continuing influence of the likelihood of a second wave of coronavirus infection. In any case, this topic is exaggerated in the media and supported by active statements by WHO. These cautious moods in the investor environment are supported by the ongoing pandemic in the United States and the local outbreak of COVID -19, albeit small in quantitative terms, in China.

In general, watching everything that happens on world markets, we can say that bidders are balancing. On the one hand, they do not want to sell, and on the other, they do not want to buy, since the pros and cons factors approximately balance each other. It can be recalled that the fears of the probability of the second wave of the pandemic are negative, and the broad stimulus measures from global central banks and the understanding that the global economy will recover with some manifestations of coronavirus infection are difficult, slow, but steady, or this growth will be more vigorous starting from the third quarter, when it becomes clear that these fears were not justified.

Building a short-term forecast for the next three months, we believe that amid continued recovery in the global economy, the US dollar will begin to more actively lose ground. It seems that after reaching the maximum for the basket of major currencies on March 19, the ICE dollar index will only decline, characterizing the general attitude of market participants to buying risk, which clearly correlates with the dynamics of the US dollar.

After the June rally, the dollar made an attempt to recover, but it was not so strong and more like a small correction before the continuation of decline under the pressure of more positive economic data, which already began to signal the first problem of US economic recovery.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index data released on Monday unexpectedly showed a 2.61 point increase in May against a 16.74 point decline a month earlier, which was revised down to -17.89 point. And although the value of the indicator did not have a noticeable effect on the market, it has become another stumbling block supporting the hopes for a more vigorous restoration of the US economy, and with it the world economy.

Important from the point of view of the attitude of the American authorities to the prospects of the second wave of COVID-19 was the statement on the CNBC channel of economic adviser D. Trump, L. Kudlow, who said that there is no second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in America, and only focal outbreaks of regions. What's even more important were his words that decisions on additional restrictive measures will be taken by regional authorities and that they are unlikely to be taken centrally.

Assessing the general situation in the markets, we believe that the period of uncertainty, characterized by high volatility in the markets, will continue this week.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading near the upper border of the short-term downward trend. It can continue to grow locally to the level of 1.1350 in the wake of the publication of positive data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and the services sector in Germany and the eurozone, which will be released today.

The USD/JPY pair remains in the range 106.65-107.65. It turns up on a wave of words spoken by the White House trade adviser. P. Navarro, who said that trade relations between the US and China do not stop. The positive wave from this news may push the pair up to the level of 107.65.

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GBP/AUD price movement, June 23, 2020

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On the 4 hour chart, we see that the GBP/AUD pair may test the nearest liquidity pool at 1.7994. This condition is also confrimed by the fact that the pair is moving bellow the moving average but pay attention to the level 1.8128. If the price rises and closes above that level this scenario will be cancel.

(Disclaimer)

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 23, 2020

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GBP/JPY is hovering above key-support at 131.63 and the break above minor resistance at 133.25. This could indicate the completion of red wave ii at 131.68 for a new impulsive rally towards 138.04 and for a continuation towards 148.32.

Thus, we need more evidence before we are sure that the correction in red wave ii is completed. The first target is a break above resistance at 133.81 and more importantly a break above key-resistance at 136.35, but so far, the rally from 131.68 looks promising.

R3: 135.18

R2: 134.38

R1: 133.81

Pivot: 133.52

S1: 133.08

S2: 132.72

S3: 132.10

Trading recommendation:

We are long on GBP from 132.85 and our stop remains locked at 131.55

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 23, 2020

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EUR/JPY shot away from the 50% corrective target at 119.41 indicating a possible corrective low being in place. The break above the minor resistance at 120.21 also add confidence that a possible bottom is in place now. However, we will need a break above key-resistance at 122.12 to confirm that wave 2 is completed and wave 3 higher is in motion for a ride towards 129.24 and more likely even closer to the 161.8% extension target at 135.46.

Support is now at 119.88 while key support is at 119.41. A break below the later will call for a continuation of wave 2 towards the 61.8% corrective target at 118.23.

R3: 122.12

R2: 121.80

R1: 121.23

Pivot: 120.62

S1: 120.24

S2: 119.88

S3: 119.41

Trading recommendation:

We are long on EUR from 119.95 and we will move our stop higher to 119.35.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 23. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pound regains strength. Bulls

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The British pound is gradually recovering its position against the US dollar, and the bulls are aiming for a reversal of the market after a good downward correction, which many have been waiting for a long time. Yesterday, if you recall my forecast for the second half of the day, then you would know that I advised you to open long positions to continue growth after the breakout of resistance 1.2431, which happened. We can clearly see how buyers achieved a breakdown level of 1.2431 on the 5-minute chart, and its top-down test was an excellent signal to buy the pound, which led to an update of the high of 1.2483, where I advised taking profits. And even if you did not have time to immediately buy the pound from the level of 1.2431, such an opportunity was offered after a sharp decline in the pair in the Asian session. The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 16 recorded a reduction in short positions and an increase in long ones, which indicates a completely possible change in the market direction in favor of strengthening the pound. This once again indicates that traders are counting on progress in negotiations related to the trade deal, and are reviewing their positions, preparing for a major rising wave of the pound in the second half of the year. The COT report states that short non-profit positions decreased from 52,941 to 45,376 during the week. At that time, long non-profit positions sharply rose from 28,893 to 29,379. As a result, non-commercial net position decreased its negative value to -15,998, against -24,048, which indicates a possible market reversal and building a new bullish momentum in the medium term. As for the intraday strategy, as long as buyers control the market above 1.2431 support, we can count on strengthening the British pound. Forming a false breakout in this range after the release of a number of important data on the status of activity in the UK services sector will be an additional impulse to open long positions in order to consolidate above the high of 1.2503. This scenario will open a direct path to the resistance 1.2585 and 1.2676, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on the pound returns, but you don't have to expect anything good from production activity and the service sector, then after returning GBP/USD to support 1.2431, it would be best to postpone opening new long positions until you test the low of 1.2381, or buy immediately for a rebound from the weekly low of 1.2334, where there was a reversal of the downward trend yesterday.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Pound sellers already had problems with maintaining the bearish momentum, and today it is very important to quickly return the pair to the support level of 1.2431. This can be done after the release of data on the status of the composite PMI index in the UK. Consolidating below 1.2431 will be a signal to open short positions in GBP/USD, which will lead to a repeated decrease in the pair and updating the low of 1.2381, where the moving averages are held, as well as to the support test of 1.2334, where I recommend taking profit. If the demand for the pound continues in the morning, I do not recommend rushing to open short positions from the resistance of 1.2503. It is best to wait until a false breakout is formed, and sell immediately for a rebound from a larger weekly high of 1.2585, counting on an intraday correction of 30-40 points.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a bulls attempt to take the initiative again.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

If the pair decreases, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the region of 1.23281. A break of the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.2515 will lead to a new wave of pound growth.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - convergence / divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 23. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's deals). Euro bulls will not let the

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday, euro buyers continued to bend their line and achieved a breakout of resistance 1.1230, above which I advise you to open long positions. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how, from the second attempt, closer to the middle of the US session, the bulls achieved a breakout of resistance 1.1230 and continued to strengthen the European currency. And even if you decided not to buy the euro without a top-down test, you could wait for it at the Asian session, when there was a sharp drop in the EUR/USD pair, which was temporary. Not surprisingly, the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 16 recorded an increase in long positions, as well as a reduction in short ones, which indicates that the pair has maintained the bullish momentum at that time even with a weekly closing price of 1.1337, as well as customer interest to the market, even amid a lack of good news on helping countries in the eurozone most affected by the pandemic crisis. The report shows a reduction in short non-profit positions from 89,020 to 69,988, while long non-profit positions sharply rose from 184,669 to 187,120. As a result, the positive non-profit net position rose again to 117 132, against 95,639, which indicates an increase in interest in buying risky assets even at current prices high enough for the market. As for the intraday strategy, euro buyers need to try very hard to keep the market under their control. The first goal will be to maintain the area of 1.1230, which we managed to do today at the Asian session. However, it is best to re-open long positions from it only after forming a false breakout there. An equally important task for the bulls will be to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1279, which can be achieved today if good data on activity in the manufacturing sector and the eurozone services are released. Consolidating above 1.1279 will lead to the euro's growth in the area of highs 1.1349 and 1.1418, where I recommend taking profit. In the absence of activity in the support area of 1.1230, where moving averages are also held, it is best to postpone purchases until the week's low is updated in the region of 1.1170, counting on a rebound of 30-40 points within the day. However, a test of this area will indicate a resumption of the bearish trend.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers urgently need to rehabilitate themselves and get back the level of 1.1230 as quickly as possible, on which the further direction of the pair depends. If the eurozone reports come out quite mediocre, the bearish actions after the breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.1230 will increase the pressure on the pair, which will lead to a return to the area of 1.1170, where the sellers may already have difficulties, as the bulls will actively protect the week's lows. It will be possible to speak with confidence about the resumption of pressure on the euro and the continuation of the downward correction after a real breakout and consolidation below the range of 1.1170, which was formed on June 10 this year. Sellers will further aim for low of 1.1106, where I recommend taking profits. Also, short positions in euros can be considered after forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1279, which will be an additional signal to sell. If the bulls turn out to be stronger in the first half of the day, then the euro's growth could lead to an update of the high of 1.1349, where I recommend looking at short positions immediately on the rebound while expecting a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt to return buyers to the euro market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1295 will lead to a new upward momentum of the pair. In case the euro falls, the lower border of the indicator will provide support around 1.1205 from which you can buy for a rebound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - convergence / divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 23, 2020

EUR/USD

Monday ended with a significant increase in the euro risk appetite, as it was a week earlier. But unlike the growth on the 15th, yesterday's growth was in a narrow sector of values - the euro and US stock indices: the euro grew by 85 points and the S&P 500 with 0.65%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 by -0.84% at the end of the European session. Gold has risen in price, yields on US government bonds have grown. Given the euro's growth with weak support for the broad market, it may soon turn into a decline. There is an alternative scenario - risk appetite will gradually increase and will soon affect other key trading instruments.

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The readings of technical indicators confirm the growth - the signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart reversed from the border dividing the growth zone from the decline zone. The price overcame the first target level of the bulls and the 1.1385 target opened.

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The price goes above the balance indicator line on the H4 chart, shifting the price equilibrium towards growth. According to the Marlin oscillator, the double convergence has fully worked out, the signal line is approaching the upper border of its own channel, touching it could coincide with reaching the price of the MACD indicator line (1.1303). The market can wait for a surprise here - the euro will turn down, up to completing the previously defined target on the embedded line of the price channel on the higher timeframe - 1.1115. Price taking above 1.1303 increases the chances of the price reaching the upper target of 1.1385.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on June 23, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose 73 points amid weakening US dollars and rising commodities, having completed its first growth target of 0.6900. This morning, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator returned to the growth zone. Formally, the 0.7080 target is open.

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The price reached the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart. Consolidation over the line will be the final condition for the price to grow to the designated goal. The Marlin oscillator has already consolidated in the growth zone.

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When the price returns to the level of 0.6900, consolidating below it will become a condition for a trend reversal and, possibly, an attack on 0.6680. The first fleeting attempt has already taken place with the lower shadow of the current candle, we follow the development of events.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 23,2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen is consolidating strictly below the MACD line on the daily chart for the fourth day. The Marlin oscillator is also stable in the negative trend zone. These are signs of a forthcoming breakdown in prices, even despite the upward surge in prices that occurred today in the Asian session. Resistance to growth is the embedded line of the price channel. Nevertheless, consolidating the price above this line (107.20) will mean a really resolute intention of the dollar to continue strengthening. The growth target is 107.77. Next at 108.10.

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When the price returns under the MACD line (106.89 - the opening of the day), this will mean the falsity of the observed growth and, consequently, the subsequent breakthrough to the level of 105.85. Next, the target is 105.40.

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The level of 107.20 coincides with the MACD line on the four-hour chart, which creates the risk of a price reversal down. Consolidation above the resistance component will give optimism to the bulls.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair for June 23. COT report. Decisive moment for sellers. Recent chances

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair began to correct on the hourly timeframe on June 22, not quite reaching the first upward trend line. However, while the quotes of the pair continue to remain inside the downward channel, therefore, the trend in the current timeframe remains downward. A price rebound from the upper line of the channel may trigger a resumption of the downward movement, despite overcoming the critical Kijun-sen line. Thus, sellers remain in the market, and on the way up, buyers still have many potentially strong obstacles that can temper their ardor. This is, at the lowest, the Senkou Span B line and the resistance area of 1.1326-1.1343. If all these resistances are overcome, then the bulls will be able to activate and begin forming a new upward trend.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned up on the 15-minute timeframe, so the trend has now changed to an upward one in the short term. So far, this movement is only a correction on the hourly chart.

COT Report

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The euro/dollar pair steadily rose until June 16 (the deadline, data for which is included in the latest COT report) and only began a correction in the last two days. According to the COT report, professional traders were busy during the entire reporting week not with opening purchase contracts, which could be assumed based on the direction the pair was moving, but with closing sale contracts. In just five days, professional traders closed almost 20,000 sell contracts and at the same time opened 1,300 long euro contracts. Thus, the continued strengthening of the European currency was absolutely logical at that time. But, we emphasize that large market players were not buying the euro for the second week in a row, and therefore do not believe in the prospects of this currency. The euro grew for two weeks almost at the mere closure of contracts for sale by large speculators, which caused a skew of supply and demand for the euro. Accordingly, we believe that this week the dollar will continue to rise in price, and the new COT report will show a decrease in the net position in the euro.

The general fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair did not change at all on Monday, since no important macroeconomic reports were published, and there were no important fundamental events. Market participants continue to be entertained by Donald Trump, however, apart from this, nothing interesting in the world happened on the first trading day of the week. By and large, traders are now ready to focus on important macroeconomic reports that are not yet available, and on serious fundamental topics that are now paused. There is one important topic in the European Union. The formation of a Recovery Fund worth 750 billion euros, which should be aimed at helping the European economy recover from the coronavirus crisis. There are many more topics in the United States, but all of them are also paused now, while the most important ones are threatening to be put on hold. It is primarily a confrontation between the United States and China. After several months of mutual skirmishes, insults, and accusations, it turned out that Washington was not ready to apply new sanctions and duties against Beijing. And it's better to say that Donald Trump is not ready to apply any sanctions against China, because any retaliatory measures can further damage him personally. It is regarding his political ratings four months before the presidential election. Today's business activity reports in the US and the EU are unlikely to have a significant impact on the movement of the euro/dollar pair.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 23:

1) Bulls continue to remain in the shade, so the EUR/USD pair could resume the downward movement. However, in the current conditions, it is imperative for the bears to stay inside the descending channel, which will maintain the current downward trend and will make it possible to trade with a view to the downward trend line, which has not yet been reached. Further downward movement will depend on overcoming or not overcoming the trend line. The potential Take Profit is 85 points.

2) We recommend considering the option to resume the growth of the EUR/USD pair only when bulls manage to gain a foothold above the downward channel. In this case, we recommend opening euro purchases with the first goal of the Senkou Span B line (1.1308). Further trading on the increase will be possible after overcoming the resistance area of 1.1326-1.1341 with the target level of 1.1417. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 30 to 150 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Why not bet on the pound's growth?

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The prospect of the absence of negative rates in the UK, in theory, was supposed to cause a pound rally, but this did not happen. Let's try to figure out why and what positions on the pound are most profitable now.

Traders were enthusiastic about the decision of the Bank of England to keep the rate at the lowest level of 0.1%. But market players were a little alarmed by the position of one of the senior members of the English regulator. Andy Haldane voted to keep the target level of asset purchases unchanged. In his opinion, the current policy of the BoE favors economic recovery and the return of inflation to the 2% target.

Nevertheless, the pound lost ground. The continuation of the downward trend, including in relation to the dollar, market players associate with continuing concern about Brexit. Pressure on sterling is also exerted by the BoE's penchant for pursuing a soft policy if the situation requires it, and the situation may require it, since the prospects for inflation and the economy remain vague.

The GBP/USD pair ended in negative territory last week. Today, the course is slightly higher. Sterling gained 0.8% against the dollar and reached a local high at 1.2450 in the US session. However, this did not happen at all because of the attractiveness of the pound, but because of the US dollar's weakness.

GBP/USD

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The dollar index was steadily losing value at evening trading, the quote was prepared to go below 97 points, threatening an upward trend in the US currency. Recently, the dollar has been extremely sensitive to the growth of stock indices, which have been increasing today, despite the alarming situation with coronavirus in America and in the whole world. However, investors are a little nervous because of the risks associated with the second wave of the pandemic, which means the dollar has a chance of recovery. This, in turn, will put pressure on the pound.

As for the factors that come specifically from the pound, there is little positive. Most strategists predict a decline in sterling due to the threat of Brexit without agreement. In addition, the measures taken by the BoE may not be enough to compensate for the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. And if you allow a new outbreak in the UK, how did this happen in other countries? The answer is obvious.

The fundamental background does not yet create the prerequisites for long positions on the GBP/USD pair. Despite today's rise, the pair is trading below a key resistance level of 1.2590.

Meanwhile, volatility in this pair may increase on Tuesday. The publication of business activity indexes is expected. The growth of indicators will support the GBP/USD rate.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 23. Donald Trump has changed his mind about imposing sanctions on Chinese officials because

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -26.4393

The British pound also started to adjust against the US currency during the first trading day of the new week. In contrast to the euro, the previous downward movement was much stronger, so the pound/dollar pair needs to go a long distance to the moving average line. However, the overall volatility and strength of the pair's movement are higher than those of the euro/dollar. Thus, in the near future, the moving average can be worked out, and the future fate of the British currency for the next few days will be decided around it. On Monday, there were no important macroeconomic publications in either the United States or the UK. There were no important statements from high-ranking officials, and the main news package still flows from the White House, from the office of the US President. However, this time the information is very interesting in the context of the confrontation between China and the United States on the eve of the presidential elections in America.

In short, Donald Trump once again broke his word and continues to adhere to the principle of "my word, I want to give, I want to take back". The American President was reminded that he threatened to impose sanctions against Chinese officials and organizations responsible for the oppression of the Uyghur people in one of the districts of China. When asked directly why Trump has not yet imposed sanctions, he will answer: "We were in the middle of a big trade deal. And I made a big deal - potential purchases of $ 250 billion." We recall the words of John Bolton from his memoirs that Trump hopes that Xi Jinping will help him in the upcoming elections. Or had hoped earlier, when there was at least some logical reason for it. Hardly anyone believes now that Beijing will help Trump defeat Joe Biden, who has always treated China well and will seek to establish business and working relations with him. Thus, it is not the introduction of new sanctions against China, Donald Trump is pursuing quite different goals. Most likely, the American president does not want to just completely bury the chances of his re-election in November. Recall that China about a month ago considered the option of canceling the "first phase" of the trade deal, the agreement on which was reached in January. At any time before the election, China can refuse to purchase agricultural products in the United States. Thus, American farmers will again be put in a very difficult position, which is already not the most enviable thanks to the "coronavirus crisis". However, Beijing has every chance to strike a new blow to Trump's political ratings, angering part of his electorate. It is easy to guess that farmers are unlikely to vote for Trump, who has damaged relations with China. Thus, from our point of view, the US leader will behave very carefully with China in the coming months. Of course, the accusations and "injections" against Beijing are unlikely to disappear, however, the American leader is unlikely to move from words to deeds. Any escalation of the conflict in Beijing threatens retaliatory measures that can further aggravate the deplorable state of Trump's popularity. Because the confrontation is now more Trump-China and not the US-China.

At the same time, representatives of Donald Trump and White House officials are trying their best to refute the statements of former national security adviser John Bolton. For example, the head of the trade council, Peter Navarro, said that Donald Trump never asked Xi Jinping to help him get re-elected for a second term. "Whatever Bolton says about China, it's just stupid, because no American president has treated China more harshly than the current one," Navarro said. However, Mr. Navarro forgot about such a concept as "political pressure", which was already applied to Trump in the case of his impeachment, which was initiated after the "pressure" on Kiev. The US leader, according to Bolton himself, wanted to get the support of the Chinese leader in exchange for a more lenient trade agreement or, perhaps, some trade preferences and easing.

Well, in the UK at the same time, the population wants Boris Johnson to reduce his salary because of the "coronavirus" pandemic. The British believe that British politicians should reduce their wages in times of economic crisis, as did London mayor Sadiq Khan. These are the results of a social survey conducted recently. Unfortunately, no important news regarding Brexit negotiations with Brussels has been received in recent days. Thus, the fundamental background remains quite weak, to say the least.

On Tuesday, the UK is also scheduled to publish business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors. The first indicator is expected to grow from 29 to 39.5, and the second – from 40.7 to 45.0. Thus, like in the Eurozone and the US, business activity will continue to increase, the only question is, to what extent will it be able to reach in the current economic conditions? Recall that even before the "coronavirus crisis", business activity in the UK manufacturing sector was below the mark of 50.0. From May 2019. Thus, as we can see, the industrial sector was in a state of decline even without the COVID-2019 epidemic. This applies not only to the UK but also to the entire EU and the US. According to many experts, the world economy has long been heading for a recession, and the "coronavirus" only helped it begin and manifest itself in full. Thus, we are not at all sure that in 2020 business activity will grow above 50.0, which is in Britain, which is across the ocean.

The trend for the pound/dollar pair is still downward, so sell orders remain relevant. However, both channels of linear regression are directed upwards, so far the downward trend is only in the short term. If sellers manage to stay below the moving average, the downward movement is likely to continue. From our point of view, it is the further fall of the pound that will be most logical.

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The average volatility of the pound/dollar pair continues to remain stable and is currently 125 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this indicator is "high". On Tuesday, June 23, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2338 and 1.2588. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards will indicate a possible resumption of the downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2390

S2 – 1.2329

S3 – 1.2268

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2451

R2 – 1.2512

R3 – 1.2573

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar pair started to adjust on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to resume selling the pound/dollar pair with the goals of 1.2390 and 1.2329 if the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down or there is a rebound from the moving average. It is recommended to buy the pound/dollar pair not earlier than fixing quotes above the moving average with the first goals of 1.2573 and 1.2634.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 23. A new recipe against "coronavirus" from Donald Trump.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 33.5233

The euro/dollar currency pair spent in a not too strong corrective movement during the first trading day of the week. Since all the downward movement can be described as quite weak, the price could not even get far enough away from the moving average line. Therefore, the minimum correction and the pair are already moving. Based on this, a new price rebound from the moving average may trigger a resumption of the downward movement, according to the current trend. In general, the downward movement is much slower than the previous growth. Therefore, we can assume that sellers are not confident in their actions and doubt the feasibility of serious sales of the euro and purchases of the US dollar. Thus, the current fall in the currency best fits the description of the word "correction", which can end at any time. However, this will mean that the upward trend will resume, which has no fundamental support and banal logic under it. Recall that the main possible reasons for the sharp depreciation of the US currency in recent weeks were the following: mass riots and rallies in the US, the political crisis, the intensity of relations between China and the US due to the "Hong Kong" and "coronavirus" issues. These issues have not been resolved, however, at the same time, they cannot put pressure on the dollar permanently or for a long period. New information that can turn these topics in a different direction or give them development simply does not exist now. Thus, we do not see why the European currency can continue to grow now. However, in the currency market, you can never be 100% sure of anything. Thus, if traders manage to return to the area above the moving average line, then the upward trend will be resumed, and buy orders will become relevant again.

On the first trading day of the week, no important macroeconomic statistics were published either in the United States or in the European Union. Thus, traders had nothing to react to during the day. However, as long as Donald Trump remains President of the United States, there will be no shortage of interesting comments and high-profile statements. For example, the US President previously linked the high incidence of American "coronavirus" with a large number of tests conducted in the US. However, as official data showed, the United States was not even in the top five countries in the world in terms of the number of tests performed per 1000 residents. Yesterday the leader of the United States brought a shock to his listeners, fans, and supporters with a statement in the pre-election rally in Oklahoma. Trump said that "when testing is carried out on such a scale as in the US, it inevitably leads to a large number of recorded cases of the disease". So the US President "asked his people to slow down testing". To be honest, we do not know how to react to this statement of the American President. By and large, Trump wanted to say the following: "The high incidence of American disease is hindering my campaign and lowering my political ratings, so I decided to slow down testing so that things don't look as bad as they are." Several Trump officials and advisers immediately called the president's words a "joke", although this is very controversial. Trump regularly amuses the public with his contradictory statements, which are refuted even without referring to experts from the field that the US leader has touched on this time. By the way, at the same time, eight states in America announced a record number of cases of COVID-2019. The total number of cases in the United States today is almost 2.3 million, the number of "deaths" - almost 120 thousand. The "contagion" curve is directed upward at the same angle as before, which means the same rate of increase in the spread of infection, no slowdown.

Meanwhile, the American President also came up with a new name for "coronavirus", calling it "kung flu" (flu – English. "flu"), thus referring to the Chinese martial art "kung fu". In general, in the last 6 months of the presidential term, Donald Trump seems to be having as much fun as he can.

On Tuesday, June 23, preliminary values of business activity indices in various services and manufacturing sectors will be published in the United States and the European Union. We already said in articles over the weekend that these reports are unlikely to cause any reaction from traders, since they are preliminary for June, which has not yet ended, and in any case, the values of these indicators will remain below the mark of 50.0. Therefore, no matter how much business activity increases, it will not be enough to declare the growth of the economy itself. Although it should be recognized that business activity in Germany is expected to be higher than 40.0 in both areas, just like in the European Union. Thus, in a few months, hypothetically, we can expect these indicators to return to the "growth zone". The situation in the United States is the same as in the European Union. Both Markit business activity indices are likely to be more than 40, and forecasts predict even values of 46.0 and 47.8, which is already "almost 50". Thus, it is American business activity that can be the first to return to the "growth zone", which will contribute to a faster transition to recovery than in the European Union. This factor may support the dollar in the medium term.

As for technical factors, the most important now is moving. As long as the pair remains below the moving average, the downward trend persists, which will eventually contribute to a downward reversal of both linear regression channels. However, for now, both channels are directed upwards, so we would say that the chances of resuming the upward trend are even greater. The problem is that the foundation and macroeconomics do not support the euro currency and we do not see how the euro can show new long-term growth.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of June 23 is 94 points. Thus, the value of the indicator is still characterized as "high", but in general, volatility is decreasing. We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1165 and 1.1353 today. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a new round of downward movement, however, the price must remain below the moving average.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1353

R2 – 1.1475

R3 – 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair has started at least an upward correction. Thus, at this time, sell orders with targets of 1.1165 and 1.1108 remain relevant if the pair bounces off the moving average line. It is recommended to return to buying the pair not before fixing the price above the moving average with the first goals of 1.1353 and 1.1475.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com