Investors focused their attention to the problems of COVID-19 and the production of vaccines which supports the US dollar

As expected, the market was already done with the topic about the possibility of new incentives in the US, following the presidential election on November 3. Thus, the issue of COVID-19 is noticeable again. Its second wave hinders the full recovery of economic activity not only in individual countries, but also in entire regions.

The decline in demand for risky assets in view of the pandemic and corporate reporting of companies for the 3rd quarter provides support for the US dollar, although it should be recognized that it is not universal. The USD is rising against commodity and commodity currencies, as well as against the yen, but is declining against the franc, euro and pound. But if you look closely at the overall dynamics in the main currency pairs, you can see that they are moving in sideways ranges with different widths, and the behavior of the ICE dollar index only confirms this.

Meanwhile, interesting economic statistics began to appear, while investors are watching the pre-election battles in the US, the situation around COVID-19, as well as the slow down of vaccine trials against this infection. Yesterday, US manufacturing inflation data came out, which unexpectedly increased more than what was expected. The producer price index soared by 0.4% against the forecasted growth of 0.2% in annual and monthly terms. At the same time, the core PPI on an annual basis rose by 1.2% in September against 0.6% a year earlier and the forecasted 0.9%.

This data is an important signal to the market. If the overall growth dynamics of this indicator continues, then it will certainly have a strong impact on the growth of consumer inflation, which will force the Fed to think about the need for such a soft monetary policy in the future. Today, investors will closely monitor the emerging values of the number of applications for unemployment benefits and the production figures from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in America.

Assessing the overall situation on the markets, we believe that the general sideways trend may continue before this month ends.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair continues to decline in the wake of China's inflation data, despite the more positive values for employment in Australia. Against this background, the pair may fall first to 0.7100, and then to 0.7075.

The NZD/USD pair also has prospects for falling to 0.6570 after breaking through the level of 0.6630.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on October 15

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

The euro traded in a narrow sideways channel yesterday, so as a result, both long and short positions did not give the expected profit in the EUR / USD pair. This lack of definite direction once again suggests that traders do not know which side to take, especially since authorities do not have a clear reaction yet on the emerging new coronavirus pandemic wave in Europe.

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Trading recommendations for October 15

A report on France's inflation rate will be released today, along with speeches by representatives of the European Central Bank. Its president, Christine Lagarde, will also make a statement, and if she hints of a possible easing of monetary policy, the pressure on the euro will return.

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  • Open a long position when the euro reaches a quote of 1.1769 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1815.
  • Open a short position when the euro reaches a quote of 1.1739 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1700.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

The pound, unlike the euro, gave large profits to traders yesterday, as its quote moved 45 pips down from the level of 1.2925, and went back up 60 pips, reaching the target level, which is 1.3026.

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Trading recommendations for October 15

Brexit negotiations shall continue today, and if the EU fails again to make concessions, the risk of a "Brexit without deal" will become as high as possible, which will lead to a collapse of the British pound. But if good news comes out, that is, finally reaching an agreement with regards to a trade deal, the pound will rise against the US dollar.

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  • Open a long position when the pound reaches a quote of 1.3049 (green line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.3146 (thicker green line on the chart).
  • Open a short position when the pound reaches a quote of 1.2998 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at least at the level of 1.2905.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 15, 2020

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EUR/JPY dipped to the 61.8% corrective target of wave i at 123.41, which also where the support line from the 114.40 low was seen. This solid support is expected to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 123.99 to confirm wave ii has completed and wave iii towards 128.02 is unfolding.

R3: 124.18

R2: 123.94

R1: 123.76

Pivot: 123.80

S1: 123.38

S2: 123.19

S3: 123.00

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 123.48 with our stop placed at 123.00. Upon a break above 123.99 our stop will be raised to 123.30

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD. Disastrous labor market data and RBA chief's "dovish message"

The Australian dollar was not supported by macroeconomic reports. Data on the Australian labor market, although slightly better than expected, still reflected a slowdown in the recovery process in the country. The "test shot" for the Aussie was a speech by RBA Governor Philip Lowe, which took place against the backdrop of the Chinese indicators' disappointing release. Such fundamentals have reignited speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut interest rates at the next meeting.

In the Australian statistics, the preliminary forecasts did not bode well. According to most experts, the unemployment rate was expected to rise to 7.2%, and the growth rate of the number of employed was expected to decrease by almost 40 thousand. The figures were slightly better in reality than the forecast: unemployment rose to 6.9%, but the number of employed people decreased by 29 thousand. However, we should not pay any heed to the fact that the announcement was released in the "green zone." As a matter of fact, this situation is clearly negative and there is no reason for optimism here.

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The unemployment rate is gradually rising again, despite the fact that a decline was recorded in August after a four-month marathon. For comparison: in the "pre-crisis" times, this indicator fluctuated in the range of 5.0%-5.3% for many months. Starting in April, unemployment starts to rise and reaches its peak (7.5%) in July. In August, there was a fairly sharp decline (6.8%), after which there were hopes for a relatively rapid recovery in the Australian labor market. However, the September data showed that it is too early to talk about the recovery of key indicators.

The employment growth rate also reflected worrying trends. First, this indicator declined for the first time since May of this year (when the country was just coming out of full lockdown mode). Second, this decrease was mainly due to a reduction in the full employment component. If the indicator of partial employment growth decreased by 9 thousand, the indicator of full employment went into negative territory by 20 thousand. Recall that the RBA reports have repeatedly indicated that full-time positions tend to offer a higher level of salary and a higher level of social security, compared to temporary part-time jobs, resulting in the decline in consumer activity of Australians and weak inflation growth. Therefore, the current dynamics are doubtful to please the members of the Australian regulator.

The published Chinese data during the Asian session on Thursday exerted additional pressure on the Aussie. Despite the difficult political relations between Canberra and Beijing, China is still Australia's largest trading partner. Thus, the slowdown in the Chinese economy is also reflected in the Australian's well-being. According to published data, the consumer price index in China (in annual terms) in September increased by only 1.7%. This is the weakest growth rate since March last year. At the same time, this indicator increased by 2.4% in the previous month. The producer price index, which is an early signal of changes in inflationary trends, was also disappointing. This indicator, firstly, remained in the negative area, and secondly, was in the "red zone," falling short of the weak forecast values (-2.1% instead of -1.9%).

It is not surprising that the Australian dollar weakened throughout the market against the backdrop of such a fundamental picture. In early October, there were rumors on the market that the Australian central bank will soon reduce the interest rate. This scenario was warned by currency strategists at the country's largest financial conglomerate Westpac, whose position was also supported by AMP Capital, HSBC, and UBS. Economists at these banks predicted a rate cut before the end of this year as "one of the most likely options."

However, at the October meeting, RBA members restricted themselves to saying that the regulator "continues to consider how additional monetary easing can support the growth of the labor market as the economy continues to recover." In other words, the Australian regulator did not rule out the option of easing monetary policy, but it did so in a rather veiled way, ergo the Aussie ignored this message at the end of the October meeting.

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But this signal from the RBA today played with new colors. A few hours before today's release, the head of the Australian Central Bank, Philip Lowe, said that he does not exclude a further reduction in the interest rate to 0.1% (that is, by 15 basis points). However, he ruled out raising the rate for "at least three years." Given these messages, we can conclude that the regulator will still consider easing monetary policy at the November meeting (November 3).

Therefore, the dovish rhetoric of the RBA head, the failed data on the labor market, the latest restrictions from China (a ban on the import of Australian coal), and the decline in Chinese inflation suggest that the Australian dollar will soon be under significant pressure.

The AUD/USD pair is currently testing the support level of 0.7130 – this is the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart. With a high degree of probability, we can assume that the bears will push through this level and go to the main price citadel – to the "round" mark of 0.7000. Given the fundamental background that has developed for the Australian dollar, short positions to the base of the 70th figure are in priority for the pair.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on October 15. COT reports. Pound buyers believe in conclusion of trade deal on Brexit

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

There was an excellent entry point to sell the pound from the 1.3065 level yesterday afternoon, because after the first breakout of resistance at 1.3009, it was not possible to wait for it to be tested from the reverse side. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart. The bulls began to take profits after testing resistance at 1.3065, which caused the pound to immediately fall to the support area of 1.3009, where it was then possible and necessary to open long positions in anticipation of another wave of the pound's growth. However, there was no major upward movement.

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The technical picture has slightly changed at the moment. Buyers will focus on resistance at 1.3059 in the first half of the day, getting the pair to settle in this area will open the possibility for a new wave of growth for GBP/USD in the area of a high of 1.3154. Good news on Brexit will provide support to the pound, which will lead to a test of resistance at 1.3234, where I recommend taking profits. An equally important task is to protect support at 1.2988, just below which the moving averages pass. Forming a false breakout at this level will be a signal to open new long positions, counting on an upward trend. In case bulls are not active in this range, it is better not to rush to buy, but to wait for news on Brexit. In this case, the nearest major support levels will be seen in the area of 1.2923 and 1.2865, from where you can consider buy positions for a rebound upon reaching it, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for October 6 showed a minimal increase in short non-commercial positions from 51,961 to 51,996. Long non-commercial positions slightly rose from 39,216 to 40,698. As a result, non-commercial net position remained negative and reached -11,298 against -12,745, which indicates that sellers of the pound retain control and also shows their slight advantage in the current situation. The higher the pair grows, the more attractive it is to sell.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers need to defend resistance at 1.3059, but a lot will depend on news on the trade deal and on the decisions taken at the Eurogroup meeting. Forming a false breakout at 1.3059 generates a signal to sell the pound, but bad news on Brexit is necessary to exert pressure on the pair. After consolidating below support at 1.2988, we can finally expect the pair to fall and return to the 1.2923 area. I recommend taking profit in the 1.2865 area, since large buyers are most likely present in that area. In the absence of activity in the resistance area of 1.3059, it is best to postpone short positions until the resistance at 1.3154 has been tested, and you can also sell immediately on a rebound from the high of 1.3234. At least you can expect the bull market to stop at these levels.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates another attempt by the bulls to take control of the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.3059 will lead to a large wave of growth in the pound. A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2965 area will increase the pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on October 15. COT reports. Bears are pulling the market over to their side. Aim for

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday, buyers of the euro tried to retrieve resistance at 1.1756 and even formed a signal from it to buy the euro, but, unfortunately, a strong upward movement did not take place. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bulls managed to settle above 1.1756 and defended this level by testing it from top to bottom, trying to build a new wave of growth. Sellers regained control towards the end of the US session, forming a signal to sell the euro by testing it from the bottom up at the 1.1756 level, but so far this setup has not led to a good downward movement.

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Nothing has changed from a technical point of view. Buyers are still focused on resistance at 1.1756, and settling above this level forms a good entry point into long positions while counting on the euro's succeeding growth and also an update of a high at 1.1789. The 1.1824 level will be a distant target, where I recommend taking profits. If the pair is under pressure in the first half of the day since we don't have important fundamental statistics, there is no need to rush to open long positions. Forming a false breakout at the 1.1722 level will be a signal to buy EUR/USD. If bulls are not active at this level, then I recommend postponing long positions until we have updated the low of 1.1688, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for October 6 showed a reduction in long positions and an increase in short positions, which led to an even greater decrease in the delta. Buyers of risky assets believe in sustaining the bull market, but prefer to proceed with caution, as there is no good news about the eurozone and the pace of economic recovery so far. Thus, long non-commercial positions decreased from 241,967 to 231,369, while short non-commercial positions increased from 53,851 to 57,061. The total non-commercial net position decreased to 174,308, against 188,116 a week earlier. which indicates a wait-and-see attitude of new players. However, bullish sentiments for the euro remain rather high in the medium term.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

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The bears managed to defend resistance at 1.1756 yesterday afternoon, however the downward movement has occurred. Sellers will have the advantage as long as trading is below this range. Forming the next false breakout at the 1.1756 level will be a signal to open short positions in EUR with the goal of returning to the support area of 1.1722. However, a much more important task is to break out and settle below this range, testing it from the bottom up forms just an excellent entry point for short positions with the goal of pulling down the euro to a low of 1.1688, where I recommend taking profits. In case bears are not active at 1.1756, it is best to postpone sell positions until a larger resistance at 1.1789 has been tested, from where you can open short positions immediately on a rebound, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which again indicates a confusion between buyers and sellers.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower border of the indicator around 1.1730 will increase pressure on the euro and lead to a larger downward movement for the pair. A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.1765 area will lead to an increase in EUR/USD.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on October 15. COT reports. Bears are pulling the market over to their side. Aim for

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday, buyers of the euro tried to retrieve resistance at 1.1756 and even formed a signal from it to buy the euro, but, unfortunately, a strong upward movement did not take place. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bulls managed to settle above 1.1756 and defended this level by testing it from top to bottom, trying to build a new wave of growth. Sellers regained control towards the end of the US session, forming a signal to sell the euro by testing it from the bottom up at the 1.1756 level, but so far this setup has not led to a good downward movement.

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Nothing has changed from a technical point of view. Buyers are still focused on resistance at 1.1756, and settling above this level forms a good entry point into long positions while counting on the euro's succeeding growth and also an update of a high at 1.1789. The 1.1824 level will be a distant target, where I recommend taking profits. If the pair is under pressure in the first half of the day since we don't have important fundamental statistics, there is no need to rush to open long positions. Forming a false breakout at the 1.1722 level will be a signal to buy EUR/USD. If bulls are not active at this level, then I recommend postponing long positions until we have updated the low of 1.1688, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for October 6 showed a reduction in long positions and an increase in short positions, which led to an even greater decrease in the delta. Buyers of risky assets believe in sustaining the bull market, but prefer to proceed with caution, as there is no good news about the eurozone and the pace of economic recovery so far. Thus, long non-commercial positions decreased from 241,967 to 231,369, while short non-commercial positions increased from 53,851 to 57,061. The total non-commercial net position decreased to 174,308, against 188,116 a week earlier. which indicates a wait-and-see attitude of new players. However, bullish sentiments for the euro remain rather high in the medium term.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

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The bears managed to defend resistance at 1.1756 yesterday afternoon, however the downward movement has occurred. Sellers will have the advantage as long as trading is below this range. Forming the next false breakout at the 1.1756 level will be a signal to open short positions in EUR with the goal of returning to the support area of 1.1722. However, a much more important task is to break out and settle below this range, testing it from the bottom up forms just an excellent entry point for short positions with the goal of pulling down the euro to a low of 1.1688, where I recommend taking profits. In case bears are not active at 1.1756, it is best to postpone sell positions until a larger resistance at 1.1789 has been tested, from where you can open short positions immediately on a rebound, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which again indicates a confusion between buyers and sellers.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower border of the indicator around 1.1730 will increase pressure on the euro and lead to a larger downward movement for the pair. A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.1765 area will lead to an increase in EUR/USD.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 15, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

A study by the World Economic Forum and the Global Blockchain Business Council reveals the reasons why the blockchain industry still lacks well-defined standards at a global level.

The study, dubbed the Global Standards Mapping Initiative, noted that the gaps, discrepancies, and overlaps in the standard-setting landscape of the blockchain industry are the greatest challenges facing the industry.

Most of the industry standard setting organizations have shown great interest in some specific areas while completely neglecting others. This causes some sections of the blockchain industry to overlap, leaving a gap in the standardization of other parts.

The interest and scope of standard-setting activities also changed with the hype around technology. Many organizations that set out to set standards during the peak of the blockchain hype have either shut down or haven't produced any reasonable results yet.

According to the report, the five most common areas with overlapping interests are security, Internet of Things, identity, DLT requirements, and DLT terminology.

While there is tremendous interest in setting DLT terminology standards, the study indicates that blockchain terminology around the world remains uncertain. According to the report, consistent definitions and terminologies for the blockchain industry are key to the industry's development.

The study suggests that the blockchain industry still lacks standards that can formally define the suitability of blockchain technology for specific processes. Setting global standards in this regard can help more players assess the potential of a technology for their business and understand its benefits and possible risks.

There are also no formal standards that define the procedure for testing blockchain platforms. As we read in the report, most of the innovation in the industry so far has occurred through industry entities and technical evolution, not through formalization and standardization.

The solution suggests that regulators should become familiar with the technology before setting national or global standards. The report mentions that "the effectiveness of the standards will ultimately come down to a degree of understanding of the technology."

Organizations and regulators conducting closed operations to establish blockchain standards have also caused a lot of confusion.

Technical Market Outlook:

The bearish pressure is clearly visible on the Ethereum, despite the fact that the ETH/USD pair had bounced from the technical support seen at $375.52 and got back to the middle of the range. During this spike down a new low was made at the level of $372.63 and then ETH/USD has been consolidating in a narrow range for some time now as the market participants await for the important breakout continuation. The target for bulls is still seen at the level of $400 and due to the strong and positive momentum they might hit this level soon. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $389.90 and at the swing top at $394.95.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $440.56

WR2 - $409.44

WR1 - $39440

Weekly Pivot - $363.37

WS1 - $349.03

WS2 - $317.19

WS3 - $302.61

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. Moreover, bulls had bounced from the weekly trend line support last week and now are away from it. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on October 15? Plan for opening and closing trades on Thursday

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair tried to start a new downward movement last Wednesday night, which we are waiting for, but the sell signal that the MACD provided turned out to be false, and trading over the past 12 hours has been extremely weak. A sell signal from MACD appeared around midnight, but the majority of traders are already asleep at this time. However, if there were those who opened sell positions on the pair, then the current loss on this deal is only 5 points and it can be closed, since the MACD indicator has already moved up again. Therefore, we can expect another round of upward corrective movement and again we have to wait until the MACD indicator turns tp to the downside. Recall that there are more chances for the downward movement to continue after quotes of the euro/dollar pair have gone beyond the ascending channel. At least the price should fall to the 1.1696 level. We have also formed a new downward trend line, which currently has four points of contact with the price. This line also supports the option of moving downward, however, if the price settles above it, this will mean that traders are preparing new buy positions. In general, we can't call this line strong, since it was formed in two days.

The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. Nothing new in America, which has been the main factor in changes in the exchange rate in recent years. The election topics are smoothly approaching their finale, and the topic of negotiations between Democrats and Republicans has stalled again, but the differences in views on the size of the aid package for the American economy are not as big as before, so there is hope that the two opposing parties can still agree. But there is no news on this right now. A report on US unemployment benefits will be released today. An interesting report in our opinion, but not interesting from the markets' perspective. They probably won't react to it. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver another speech in the evening, which she has done almost every day now and this significantly reduces the importance of her speeches. As before, everything will depend on what exactly Lagarde says, and whether she touches on the topic of monetary policy at all. Thus, we advise beginners to pay more attention to technical factors and watch news feeds for unplanned news and events.

Possible scenarios for October 15:

1) Buy positions on the EUR/USD pair have ceased to be relevant at the moment, since the pair left the ascending channel. However, if the price settles above the new trend line today, then novice traders can try to open long positions with targets at the resistance levels of 1.1771 and 1.1796. However, we recommend that you be as careful with these positions since the trend line is not strong.

2) Sell positions are still relevant at the moment. However, there is still a lack of a sell signal from MACD. If it forms in the next few hours, and the price remains below or near the trend line (a delicate moment), then novice traders will have the right to open new sell orders with targets at 1.1720 and 1.1696. You can sell the pair even if the price breaks the trend line, but be careful, since the trend line is weak.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 15, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Another batch of 50 BTC, which has been lying untouched since 2010, has been moved today from home addresses. Their value is estimated at about $ 570,000 today. The block explorer data shows that these 50 coins were first sent to this address on November 9, 2010 as part of a Coinbase transaction. This means, no less than that, that these BTCs were the block mining award that was awarded to the miner.

No other transactions took place on this wallet. Until today, of course. The only exception is 0.00000547 BTC, which was sent to this address at the end of August in a spam-like transaction (over 300 different wallets were affected). Most likely it was a so-called "dust attack", mainly used to track BTC movements.

The coins were sent to three different addresses today: two Bech32 (SegWit format) and one P2SH, mainly used for multi-signature and non-native SegWit transactions. The transfers were 30.16, 12.48 and 7.34 BTC respectively.

Recently, more and more coins from Bitcoin's earliest days are "waking up". As of early October, two batches - 50 BTC ($ 570,000) and 1,000 BTC ($ 11.4 million) - have been moved out of deep sleep. Earlier, in May, another batch of BTC was released.

Technical Market Outlook:

After the BTC/USD pair had made a new local high at the level of $11,679, just above the technical resistance seen at $11,646, the bears took temporary control over the market and push it back towards the technical support located at $11,223. Since then the BTC/USD pair has been consolidating in the narrow zone located between the levels of $11,439 - $11,250, still below the supply zone. Please notice, Bitcoin is now trying to enter the supply zone located between the levels of $11,646 - $11,785, so some kind of the bearish pressure might be seen. In that case, the price might pull-back towards the technical support seen at the level of $11,223 or $11,062. Any violation of the last one will likely result in a further correction towards the level of $10,940 or below.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $12,712

WR2 - $12,078

WR1 - $11,737

Weekly Pivot - $11,125

WS1 - $10,786

WS2 - $10,156

WS3 - $9,820

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for October 15, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

After the EUR/USD pair had hit the level of 1.1822 again and made a new local high at 1.1830, the bears the reversed all the wave up. This is the 61% Fibonacci retracement level on the weekly time frame chart and had been tested many times in the past and even this time the bears were stronger than bulls again. The market is currently trading at horizontally around the daily lows seen at the level of 1.1746. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1724, 1.1710 and 1.1696. Weak an negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2004

WR2 - 1.1916

WR1 - 1.1875

Weekly Pivot - 1.1792

WS1 - 1.1756

WS2 - 1.1665

WS3 - 1.1629

Trading Recommendations:

Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top seen at the level of 1.2004. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for October 15, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has bounced from the main channel upper line seen around the level of 1.2900 and spiked up towards the technical resistance located at 1.3059 again. It looks like this zone will be the key short-term zone for both bulls and bears and only a clear and sustained breakout will show the traders the next direction for Pound. In a case of a bullish scenario, the next target would be 1.3121 and the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2868 and 1.2848.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3328

WR2 - 1.3191

WR1 - 1.3137

Weekly Pivot - 1.2992

WS1 - 1.2933

WS2 - 1.2792

WS3 - 1.2730

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 15, 2020

EUR/USD

The situation has not changed for the euro over the past day. Trading was weak on Wednesday, the price is also settling below the 1.1754 level. The Marlin oscillator moves along the border that separates the growth zone from the decline zone on the daily chart. Outwardly, the situation is neutral, but the price is developing below the red balance indicator line, which means consolidating in a dynamic downward trend. The 1.1650 target is dominant, the probability of reaching it is 65-70%.

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The four-hour chart shows that yesterday's attempt to go beyond the area above the MACD line turned out to be weak, the price has already settled below it and is ready to continue its decline. The Marlin oscillator is growing in the downward trend zone, but this growth in structure is the indicator unloading before declining even deeper.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on October 15, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar retested the 0.7190 level from below on Wednesday, and immediately retreated from it. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator continues to decline in the negative area. The 0.7055 target, which we previously defined, has become even closer. The MACD line is turning down, this is a sign of an emerging medium-term (up to six months) decline.

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The price went under the MACD line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin signal line turned downward from the border of the growth territory, the downward trend is strengthening. We are waiting for the price at the first target of 0.7055.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on October 15, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen strengthened by 30 points yesterday, slightly falling short of the support of the embedded price channel line (104.98). The price is currently trying to go back to the area above 105.30. But it is not enough for the price to only gain a foothold above this level; at present, the balance line (red indicator line) is acquiring a strong value, which kept the price from growing for the last week. The MACD line has been holding back growth since September.

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All this poses a difficult task for the price to overcome both of these indicator lines and also gain a foothold above them. And this is so that we could reach the relatively near target of 106.25, formed by the embedded price channel line. The Marlin oscillator is still in a depressed mood; it has not yet returned to the positive zone. If the price goes beyond the area below the 104.98 level, the price may continue to decline to the target of 103.75 formed by the high of May 2013.

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Oil prices fall due to frightening forecasts for COVID-19

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Throughout the day, the news about the rapid fall in oil prices is seen in major media today. This negative trend is due to concerns that a new wave of COVID-19 will hinder the recovery of demand.

The price of December futures for Brent North sea oil mix fell by 0.49% and reached the level of $42.24 per barrel. Remember that at the close of trading on Tuesday, these contracts rose by 1.8%.

The price of November WTI futures decreased by 0.62% and is worth $39.95 per barrel today. On Tuesday, the futures have risen in price for 1.95%.

This decline was the result of investor concerns that an uncontrolled increase in Coronavirus cases in the United States and Europe could greatly reduce fuel demand and quarantine restrictions will slow the economic recovery.

Today, oil prices look more vulnerable than ever. News states that COVID-19 continues to spread across Europe at an unimaginable speed and shows a positive trend towards growth in America. The main question here is how to effectively control the spread of the virus and how negatively the larger restrictions will affect economic activity.

Investors' concerns can hardly be called groundless because OPEC also expressed its concern about demand in the October report. The organization announced a forecast for a drop in global oil demand in 2020. It will decrease by 9.5 million barrels per day compared to last year. In addition, a long-term forecast for 2021 was made, where the figures slightly decreased in comparison with the organization's earlier statements. OPEC now expects demand to increase by 6.5 million barrels per day next year, instead of 6.6 million in the previous possible scenario.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on October 15. COT report. Traders wait and panic over uncertainty surrounding

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair quickly and sharply recovered all the losses of the previous day on October 14. Thus, the pair passed a total of 400 points during the last two trading days. This is a very high volatility even for the pound/dollar pair. The price managed to get out of the rising channel, so the upward trend was canceled. Instead of a channel, a new descending trend line has been formed, which is where the price is staying at this time. A rebound from this trendline will significantly increase the likelihood of a resumption of the downward trend. Bears need this to rebound off the trend line, and at the same time from the 1.3004-1.3024 area. If the rebound is executed, we will expect quotes to fall to the support area of 1.2873-1.2888. At the same time, the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines may not offer any resistance to the price.

GBP/USD 15M

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The lower linear regression channel began to turn to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, but the movements of the last two trading days are such that it is time to talk about panic, but not about calm, measured trading.

COT report

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A new Commitments of Traders (COT) report on the British pound showed that non-commercial traders were practically resting between September 29 and October 5. The pound increased by about 140 points in this period, which, in principle, is not so much, a little more than the average daily volatility of this currency. The "non-commercial" group of traders opened 1,093 Buy-contracts (longs) and closed 435 Sell-contracts (shorts) during this time. Thus, the net position of professional traders slightly increased by 1,500 contracts. However, as with price changes, these changes in the mindset of professional traders are purely formal. It is impossible to draw any conclusions or predictions about the pair's future movement based on them. In general, the "non-commercial" group has been decreasing its net position since the beginning of September, which means that their bearish mood is strengthening. In principle, this particular behavior from large traders completely coincides with what is happening on the market during this period of time, but despite the pound's growth in the last few trading days, it still goes back to falling. Nonprofit traders have more sell contracts, and UK fundamentals remain extremely weak and dangerous for the pound in terms of the outlook for the rest of 2020 and all of 2021.

No news from the UK on Wednesday, October 14. Markets continue to wait for accurate and clear information on the negotiations between London and Brussels, however, on the eve of the EU summit, which starts today, things have frankly begun to get tense. And when the markets are nervous, there is no question of any calm movements. According to the results of the summit, absolutely different results may be announced by today or tomorrow. Further trading of the British pound will be conducted depending on these results. Accordingly, now there is no point in guessing how the summit might end and what decisions will be made. Even EU and British officials themselves do not know if the deal will end up or not. Accordingly, the pound, even from the current positions, can suddenly move up and down again. In addition to the EU summit, no macroeconomic events are scheduled in the United States or Great Britain today. However, do not forget that topics such as coronavirus in the UK or US elections can also have an impact on the pair's movement. However, no one can predict what the next news will be on one of these topics, which means that the degree of uncertainty of further price movement increases.

We have two trading ideas for October 15:

1) Buyers for the pound/dollar pair have released the initiative from their hands. Therefore, long positions are not relevant right now, however, if the new trend line is overcome, you can consider them and aim for 1.3105 and 1.3177. Take Profit in this case will be from 50 to 120 points. However, we draw the attention of traders to very frequent changes in the direction of movement, so we recommend trading in small lots.

2) Sellers tried to seize the initiative again, but today they released the pair up again. If they manage to stay below the trend line and a rebound follows from it, then it will be possible to open new short positions in small lots with the targets of the Kijun-sen line (1.2972) and Senkou Span B (1.2925), support level of 1.2903 and the support area of 1.2873-1.2888. Take Profit in this case can be up to 140 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on October 15. COT report. Bears attack when there is no fundamental background

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair "crawled" to the support area of 1.1701-1.1725 and, barely touching it, immediately rebounded on the hourly timeframe on October 14. Thus, on the one hand, we see that the price has settled below the ascending channel, which indicates a change to a downward trend, on the other hand, traders failed to overcome the first obstacle on their way. Accordingly, current prospects for a succeeding downward movement appear rather vague. Bears need to tighten up and overcome the area of 1.1701-1.1725, within which the Senkou Span B line also lies, which is also quite strong support. At the same time, buyers released the initiative, and there is no question of returning to an upward trend either unless the price settles above the Kijun-sen line.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, which fully corresponds to the picture of what is happening on the hourly timeframe. The lower charts do not provide any signs of completing the correction cycle on the hourly timeframe.

COT report

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The EUR/USD pair has risen in price by about 120 points during the last reporting week (September 29 - October 5). But in general, there are still no significant price changes for the pair. In fact, all trades are held in a horizontal range of 250-300 points. Thus, data from any Commitment of Traders (COT) report can only be used for long-term forecasting. The latest COT report showed that non-commercial traders, which we recall, are the most important group of traders in the forex market, closed 10,784 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 2,078 Sell-contracts (shorts). Take note that two weeks earlier, the "non-commercial" group was relatively active in building up long positions, but now it is decreasing its net position for the second consecutive week. This may indicate that the upward trend for the pair is over. Or it is about to end. We have already said that the lines of the net positions of the "commercial" and "non-commercial" groups (upper indicator, green and red lines) diverge strongly when a trend change occurs. If this is the case, the peak point of the upward trend will remain at $1.20. The net position of non-commercial traders was at its highest (green line) at this point. After reaching this level, it falls steadily. Thus, the pair may try to make another upward breakthrough as a final assault on the bulls, but you should hardly expect the pair to go much higher than the 20 figure.

No macroeconomic background for EUR/USD on Wednesday, October 14. The only report of the day that could attract the attention of traders is the eurozone industrial production data for August. However, this report showed that the growth was only 0.7% in monthly terms, while the forecast was +0.8%. Thus, the fact that it nearly coincided with the forecast does not always provoke traders to react strongly to it. Therefore, from a fundamental point of view, it was inexplicable when the US dollar strengthened (the dollar gew against the pound) the day before yesterday. In addition to this is when the greenback fell yesterday (it also fell against the pound). Consequently, the reasons, if any, lie either in the United States, or are precisely connected with the US currency. However, the only report that was published in the US on Tuesday was the inflation report, which could not cause a strong rise in the dollar. Because its values were not optimistic or strong. Moreover, traders have been ignoring most of the macroeconomic reports lately. There is no reason to believe that the recent US inflation report was an exception. But there was no more general news on Wednesday at all. Not from US President Donald Trump, not from Democrats, not from Republicans, not from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, not from US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, not from US presidential candidate Joe Biden.

We have two trading ideas for October 15:

1) The pair has left the ascending channel, so buyers are not dominant in the market right now. You can consider taking new long positions only if the quotes return above the critical line (1.1775) and then you can aim for the resistance level of 1.1868 and even then, you should only take them in small lots. Take Profit in this case will be up to 80 points.

2) Bears have now made another attempt to start forming a downward trend, but immediately failed around 1.1720. So now sellers need to pressure the area of 1.1701-1.1725 and only after that should you open new sell positions while aiming for the support level of 1.1664. In this case, the potential Take Profit is up to 30 points. Not much, but the current volatility is not too high. You can also try to trigger a rebound from the Kijun-sen line, but in small lots while aiming for 1.1720.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. October 15. The EU summit is not an "X-hour" for the pound. Negotiations on the "deal" can

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 55.2764

The British pound sterling paired with the US currency collapsed by almost 200 points on October 13. However, on October 14, it began to recover. The pullback of the GBP/USD pair quotes to the top looks quite logical, since the drop itself was quite strong, and most importantly – groundless. First, it is worth noting that the reasons for the fall of the British currency on the 13th do not lie in Brexit or negotiations between Brussels and London. Simply because there was no news on these topics, and especially no disappointing news. Secondly, the pound/dollar pair continues to be tossed from side to side, and this can be seen even with a cursory glance at the 4-hour timeframe. Over the past two weeks, the pair has fallen sharply by more than 100 points at least 3 times (before the last drop). Thus, the upward movement may resume today. How does this upward movement fit in with the current fundamental background? Simple. The fundamental background from the UK is now simply ignored. Otherwise, we would not have seen the strengthening of the British currency in principle. Moreover, this background has remained unchanged in recent weeks. Participants in the negotiation process, all as one, regularly report that there is not enough progress on key issues. Today, on October 15, the EU summit begins, during which any decision can be made. Of course, it would be just fine if the summit participants clearly stated: "There will be no deal." Or Vice versa. "The deal is done!". However, we do not expect this option, if only because the negotiations were extended for 1 month with the consent of both sides. In other words, the final results of the negotiations should be expected by November 15, not October. Today, all participants in the summit can again discuss issues related to the future relationship between the Alliance and the Kingdom but do not make any decisions. Moreover, what prevents London and Brussels from continuing negotiations later on November 15? Boris Johnson, of course, can set new deadlines at least every month, however, they are well aware that without a free trade agreement, it will be bad for both the British and Europeans. And everyone understood from the very beginning that in 9 months (and even 6 or 7 months), it is impossible to agree on such a large transaction. Thus, nothing will prevent the parties from continuing negotiations, for example, in 2021. Moreover, in 2021, both sides will have additional motivation to make concessions and not delay negotiations, as both sides will begin to feel the charms of trade under WTO rules with each other.

Thus, with a high probability, today will not be another "X-day" for the UK and the British pound. And negotiations on the "deal" can safely continue for several years, becoming a full-fledged separate season of the series called "Brexit", which has not left the TV screens for 4 years. As for the American fundamental background, it is now more acute on the agenda. Simply put, the Brexit situation has been going on for 4 years. So one or two months doesn't solve anything. But elections in America take place every 4 years and they are now only three weeks away. Therefore, the markets pay more attention to the elections and political "gestures" in the United States. Although even this conclusion does not look completely unambiguous. For example, since the beginning of the "coronavirus crisis", the US dollar has become cheaper and paired with the pound sterling. This was followed by a very impressive pullback (from September 1 to September 23). That is, the pound sterling fell significantly at a time when the information was received about the next failures in the negotiations on the "deal" and the "Johnson bill". The current upward movement can generally be regarded as a purely technical correction against the fall between September 1 and 23. If this is the case, then in the near future, the fall in the British currency quotes may resume. Now, in general, there is an ambiguous situation, when both in the United States and in the UK, the fundamental background is so bad that it is impossible to make a clear conclusion that any of the currency should become cheaper. Therefore, we still recommend paying more attention to technical factors and using foundation analysis only as a supplement to technical analysis.

Meanwhile, in the UK, not only the incidence of "coronavirus" is growing, but also the death rate. It is reported that more than 17 thousand new cases were recorded yesterday, which is almost 3 times higher than the peak values at the height of the first "wave" of the epidemic this spring. Also, 143 people died, which is also a very high figure. Amid the spread of the epidemic in the foggy Albion, the Labor Party is calling for a "lockdown". Labor leader Keir Starmer said that "The UK government has lost control of the coronavirus and is no longer following scientific advice and has no reliable plan to reduce disease rates." Keir Starmer called on the government to impose a two or three-week quarantine. The same opinion is shared by healthcare professionals. Yvonne Doyle, Director of the Public Health Service, believes that "the number of infections among older people is increasing, which leads to an increase in the number of hospitalizations". Andrew Hayward, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at University College London, says it is not surprising that the number of cases continues to rise, as "the British authorities have not introduced tougher measures to counter COVID-2019". Thus, the epidemiological situation continues to heat up in the UK, which may also put pressure on the pound in the near future. Even now, it is clear that traders of the pound/dollar pair are quite nervous and may even panic. Thus, each new negative news from the Foggy Albion clearly will not add to their calm and confidence.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 127 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Thursday, October 15, therefore, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2899 and 1.3153. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a new round of downward correction or downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3000

S2 – 1.2970

S3 – 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3031

R2 – 1.3062

R3 – 1.3092

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has started a new strong upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in long positions with targets of 1.3062, 1.3092, and 1.3123 as long as the Heiken Ashi indicator is directed upwards. It is recommended to trade the pair down with targets of 1.2909 and 1.2899 if the price returns to the area below the moving average line.

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We continue to hold the Medium-term purchases of GBP USD

The pair has been forming an upward trend for the past three weeks. The growth yesterday was another confirmation of the impulsive nature of growth. Any decline in the pair should be considered as an opportunity to buy the instrument. The 50% correction level becomes an interesting level for opening a long position after yesterday's growth. Compensation for half of the upward movement will allow you to enter the purchase with minimal risks.

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The first growth target remains the weekly CZ 1.3202-1.3154, which was determined three weeks earlier and still remains the center of attraction for the price. After testing the specified zone, the probability of a large offer will increase, so you need to close most of the purchases after testing this zone. An important factor for continued growth will be the closing of one of the US sessions above the level of 1.3202. This will allow you to keep some of your purchases. The medium-term growth target is the opening level of last month's trading. At this point, you need to set a take profit to fix all possible purchases.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. October 15. Republicans could lose their majority in the Senate.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -67.4180

For the EUR/USD pair, the third day of the week was again held in relatively calm trading, although the pair was losing its positions quite cheerfully a few days earlier. The US dollar took the initiative from the European currency, however, there are big doubts about that for a long time. After all, the fundamental background for the US currency remains quite strong and not in its favor. As before, things are moving smoothly towards elections, the results of which cannot be predicted with a 100% probability. Still, Democrats and Republicans cannot agree on a new package of stimulus measures, which slows down the recovery of the American economy. Thus, the strengthening of the dollar may be only corrective and temporary. Even though the European currency has risen in price by 1,300 points in the last six months, it remains the leader in the pair with the US currency. Thus, despite overcoming the resistance, the price may stop falling soon and resume its bullish trend.

All conversations concerning America are still connected with the presidential election. Maybe someone has already had enough of this topic, and someone considers it not the most important for the currency market, however, there is no denying the fact that the new president will determine the country's recovery and development in the next four years. Its foreign and domestic policy will depend on it. And thanks to Donald Trump, the whole world realized how important it is to be able to negotiate with your partners and competitors, and not just put pressure on them, and then declare that everyone in this world "treats America unfairly". Trump's political ratings continue to fall, and we talked about this a few months ago. They said that it is impossible to remove responsibility from Trump for what is happening now in America and shift it to China. We believe that everything in this world is interconnected, thus, the results of the government that Trump has now are fully deserved results. After all, isn't it surprising that the "coronavirus" that escaped from China dealt the most severe blow to the States that provoked the trade war with China? We are not saying that a trade war could have been avoided if Trump had not been president. Probably not. But perhaps it would have been more civilized?

As we have already said, the political ratings of the current US President continue to fall, and Joe Biden – to grow. Although Biden himself does almost nothing to increase his popularity. But since there are only two candidates, if the popularity of one falls, the popularity of the second increases. Thus, Biden owes his popularity primarily to Trump. Such is the paradox. And along with this paradox, there is another very interesting fact. If Trump suffers not just a few "electoral votes" in the election, but a major defeat (and this is what the results of most opinion polls and research now indicate), this may mean that the Republicans will lose not only the president but also the majority of seats in the US Senate. How does it work? On November 3, not only presidential elections will be held, but also elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Of the 100 senators who are represented in the Senate, 33 will be re-elected. Thus, the Democrats, who are currently several votes behind in the Upper House, can also overtake the Republicans. Research shows that over the past 10 years, Senate elections in all states of the country were held a total of 139 times, and in 88% of cases, the winners of the elections were the candidates of the same party who won the last presidential election. There is even a forecast that according to the results of the Senate and presidential elections, the number of seats in the Senate for Democrats will be 51, that is, in any case, more than for Republicans. And this is almost total control over the country, as Boris Johnson has in the UK, who managed to form a "majority government".

If in the UK, people voted for Johnson and the Conservatives "just to finish Brexit faster" (which they may regret now) last year, then Americans can vote for Biden and Democratic senators "just not to vote for Trump". All the latest social studies and statistical simulations show that Biden will not just win, but will win by a significant margin. It is expected that he will get 370-400 "electoral votes" with the necessary 270. Well, Donald Trump, in our opinion, is currently trying to "catch up with the outgoing train". Throughout 2020, the most important year in terms of future elections, the US president made absurd statements, made mistakes and miscalculations, and did not inspire any confidence either by his actions or by his statements. Therefore, his last sluggish attempts to prove that the "coronavirus" is not so terrible, that the Americans are waiting for a new "Golden era" with him, and so on, are already of very little importance. We also support the general opinion that Joe Biden will win, and even the appointment of another Republican chief justice will not help Donald Trump since the case is unlikely to reach the courts if the Democrat wins by a large margin.

And for the US currency, all this means that times are changing from dark to light. Of course, it is impossible, especially now, to say unequivocally that the country will flourish under Biden. However, there was a rise under Barack Obama (a Democrat), and Joe Biden was the Vice President under Obama. Therefore, we can assume that the economic, epidemiological, and foreign policy situation will improve under a Democrat. Thus, the US currency may even begin to be in demand if the probability of a Biden victory continues to remain high. It should be noted that even the first round of TV debates did not help Trump increase his ratings. Most likely, the same thing will happen in the third round (second = canceled). Trump simply does not have any trump cards that he could use in the fight against Biden. Therefore, he can only exert moral pressure, interrupt, threaten, in general, do everything that he has done over the past 4 years.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of October 15 is 60 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1691 and 1.1811. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back down may signal the resumption of a downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1658

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1780

R2 – 1.1841

R3 – 1.1902

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair fixed below the moving average, changing the trend to a downward one. Thus, today it is recommended to open new sell orders with targets of 1.1719 and 1.1691 after the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to consider buy orders if the pair returns to the area above the moving average with the first targets of 1.1811 and 1.1841.

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The moment of truth for EUR/USD. The Central Bank is ready to continue the euro's growth

A support area at the level of 1.1735 was built yesterday. This is the zone where the future of EUR/USD will be determined in the first half of October. The closing of trading last day occurred above the specified mark, which may become the reason for the formation of an upward pattern in the coming days. The first growth target will be the maximum of the current week, ergo some purchases must be closed if it is retested or renewed.

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The same type of patterns for holding the ECB (European Central Bank) zone is being formed for about three weeks in a row now. The strengthening of the euro exchange rate is supported by the national bank, which indicates the need to find favorable prices for the purchase of the instrument as long as the banking zones act as supports.

In order to change the medium-term direction of trade, it is necessary to close today's trading below the level of 1.1735. This will allow us to consider the formation of a local zone of accumulation and adjustment to a downward impulse. Work towards the weakening of the Euro will take place until the lower banking zone 1.1639, where full fixation of sales will be required. The descending pattern is auxiliary as long as the pair is trading above the 1.1735 level.

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Main currency instruments EUR/USD & GBP/USD - H4. Comprehensive analysis of APLs & ZUP traffic options from October

Operational scale Minute (H4 time frame )

What's next? Will there be growth in the value of the US Dollar? Overview of EUR/USD & GBP/USD movement options in the h4 timeframe from October 15, 2020.

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Euro vs US Dollar

The development of the movement of the single Euro in the EUR/USD pair from October 15, 2020 will continue depending on the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • Resistance level 1.1785 - starting line of the SSL indicator Minuette operational scale pitchforks.
  • Support level 1.1750 - starting line of SSL Minute operational scale pitchforks.

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1750 on the initial SSL Minute line is an option to continue the downward movement of EUR/USD to the borders of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette (1.1730 - 1.1700 - 1.1670). This has a prospect of reaching the equilibrium zone (1.1625 - 1.1575 - 1.1525) of the Minuette operational scale.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1785 on the starting line of the SSL Minuette operational scale pitchfork will make it relevant to develop the upward movement of the Euro towards these goals:

  • UTL control line (1.1820) of Minuette operational scale forks
  • Local maximum is 1.1831 - 1.1872

with the prospect of reaching the borders of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1895 - 1.1960 - 1.2020) of the Minute operational scale.

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Great British Pound vs US Dollar

The development of the movement of the Pound in the GBP/USD pair, from October 15, 2020, will also occur depending on the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • Resistance level of 1.3055 - UTL control line of the Minuette operational scale pitchfork
  • Support level 1.3027 - starting line of the SSL Minuette operational scale pitchfork

If the support level 1.3027 on the starting line SSL Minuette will direct the movement of the Pound downward to the initial line SSL Minute operational scale fork (1.2915), the breakdown will be the actual achievement price of the channel borders 1/2 Median Line (1.2820 - 1.2745 - 1.2675) and equilibrium zone (1.2710 - 1.2615 - 1.2515) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The breakdown of the resistance level at 1.3055 to the control line UTL Minuette operational scale fork will subsequently update the local maximum to 1.3082. This will make it possible for the Pound to achieve borders of the channel 1/2 Median Line (1.3135 - 1.3240 - 1.3355) of the Minute operational scale pitchfork.

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The review is compiled without taking into account news background and the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers. This is not a guide to action (placing "sell" or "buy" orders).

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR 0.576 * USDJPY 0.136 * USDGBP 0.119 * USDCAD 0.091 * USDSEK 0.042 * USDCHF 0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro — 57.6 %

Yen — 13.6 %

Pound sterling — 11.9 %

Canadian dollar — 9.1 %

Swedish Krona — 4.2 V %

Swiss franc — 3.6 %.

The first coefficient in the formula brings the index value to 100 on the start date (March 1973), when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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