Trading plan EURUSD 11/12/2019

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There is a shortage of important news in the market.

Last week's strong decline in the euro is running out of steam.

At the same time, the EURUSD rate has not yet reached key lows below 1.0900.

So far, the decline we see is no more than the usual 50% correction to the previous growth of the euro.

What can change the current picture?

The stagnation in the euro may last another month – the fact is that on December 11 and 12 very important meetings of the Fed and the ECB will take place – the strategy of the main central banks will be decided for next year or at least for six months.

Therefore, the EURUSD rate may spend this month in a range followed by a choice of direction.

The pound – probably already decided – it's unlikely that the 800-point upward movement will be further "eaten up" – but here, too, the key date for December 12 is parliamentary elections.

EURUSD: we are still holding sales from 1.1070, stop with a reversal up to 1.1095.

However, purchases from 1.1045 are possible.

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Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for November 12. Instead of falling, the pound increased. Thanks to Nigel Farage.

EUR / USD

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November 11 ended for the pair EUR / USD with an increase of 10 basis points. However, the increase clearly did not have any effect on the current wave marking. Thus, the construction of the proposed wave c can continue with targets located near the levels of 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci. A successful attempt to break through the level of 50.0% will bring the instrument closer to the execution of this working variant.

Fundamental component:

There was no news background for the euro-dollar instrument on Monday. There were also no interesting events in Europe and America, which explains the low market activity. Today, the news background will remain the same, and thus, one should not expect high activity on the currency exchange market today. Such days should simply be waited, since working in the 20 or 30 point range is extremely difficult and inconvenient. Moreover, most of the attention of the currency market is shifted to the pound-dollar pair now, and more specifically to the UK, where there are important economic reports and enough news from the political sphere. Well, the euro-dollar instrument will wait for "its" news, which will also be present this week, but will begin to arrive on the market a little later.

Purchase goals:

1.1175 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.0993 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.0951 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair allegedly completed the construction of the upward trend correction section. Since the attempt to break through the minimum of wave b turned out to be successful. Thus, now, I recommend selling the instrument with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.0993 and 1.0951, which equates to 61.8% and 76.4 Fibonacci. A new successful attempt to break through the level of 50.0% or a MACD signal down will just give the green light for new sales of the instrument.

GBP / USD

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On November 11, the GBP / USD pair gained about 60 basis points, and the current wave pattern is starting to get a little complicated and confused. This is due to the fact that the trend section, after October 21, turns out to be somehow long and drawn out, which does not fit well with the possible option with the complication of the upward trend section and the construction of wave 5 . Most likely, the pair will now begin to build a horizontal five-wave segment of the trend, and we will see waves d and e. If this is true, then now we should expect an increase in the instrument to the area of 127.2% Fibonacci, and then again decline to the level of 100.0% Fibonacci.

Fundamental component:

Yesterday's economic reports from the UK were such that today we would have to see the pound-dollar instrument at about 27 figures or lower. However, instead of selling the pound, the market decided to buy it. Of course, not just like that, but thanks to Nigel Farage, the head of the Brexit party, who made a very resonant statement that his members of the same party would not be elected in those areas in which the conservative deputies won the 2017 election. Thus, the market clearly considered that such a message, which means only a slightly greater chance of winning the conservative elections, is much more important than weak GDP, disastrous industrial production in Great Britain. It is not difficult to guess, both reports turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations. Today, we are waiting for two more reports from the UK, on wages and unemployment. The expectations of the market come down to + 3.8% y / y in terms of wages and taking into account premiums and without taking them into account. Any value below should cause a decline in "Britain". In this case, the market should recall yesterday's reports, which were left ignored. The unemployment rate is expected at around 3.9%.

Sales goals:

1.2667 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2986 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.3202 - 161.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound / dollar instrument supposedly completed the construction of an upward trend. Thus, only a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2986 can be regarded as a complication of this area and become the basis for new purchases of the instrument. At the same time, the trend section threatens to go into horizontal form after October 21, so as not to cast doubt on the further lowering of the instrument.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 12. UK election news supports the British pound

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Good data on the economy, which indicated the absence of a recession at the end of this year, as well as the refusal of the leader of Brexit Party, Nigel Faraj to fight for seats in the Conservative Party, led to a sharp increase in the pound. Now the bulls' task is to break the resistance of 1.2874, which will lead to a new wave of GBP/USD growth with updating highs around 1.2910 and 1.2941, where I recommend profit taking. The formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2850 will also be an additional signal to buy the pound. If the pair decreases due to weak data on changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits and unemployment in the UK, you can count on long positions in the support area of 1.2827, as well as buy on the rebound from a low of 1.2799

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Today, sellers will try to keep the pair below the resistance of 1.2874, and the formation of a false breakout there, together with weak data on the UK labor market, will only increase pressure on the pound. However, a more important task for sellers will be to return under the support of 1.2850, which will lead to the sale of GBP/USD to the low of 1.2827 and 1.2799, where I recommend profit taking. In the scenario of the pair's further growth after data and news on elections in the UK, short positions can be opened by a rebound from a high of 1.2910, and from a larger resistance of 1.2941.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible continued growth of the pound.

Bollinger bands

If the pair decreases, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.2840. The pound will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.2880.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 12. ZEW indices will help euro buyers break above 1.1045

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Since yesterday, the technical picture in the EUR/USD pair has not changed. Euro buyers coped with the task and managed to maintain the support of 1.1025, and while trading is above this range, demand for the euro will continue. However, a more important task, in which the ZEW indices for Germany and the eurozone can provide help, will be a break of resistance at 1.1046 in order to reach highs 1.1046 and 1.1065, where I recommend profit taking. The formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.1026, subject to a decrease in the euro there in the morning, will be another signal to open long positions. In the scenario of EUR/USD decline to the level of 1.1026, it is best to count on purchases after updating the lows of 1.0994 and 1.0969.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The main task of sellers in the first half of the day is to return the pair to the support range of 1.1026, which could not be done today at the Asian session. Only this will keep EUR/USD in the bearish channel, which will lead to the updating of the lows 1.0994 and 1.0969, where I recommend profit taking. With continued upward correction and good data on Germany and the eurozone, the first active short positions can be observed in the resistance area of 1.1046, but selling from there is best only after the formation of a false breakout. Bigger sellers will prefer to return to the market only after a test of a high at 1.1065, from where it is possible to open short positions immediately for a rebound.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1042 will strengthen the demand for the euro. A break of the lower boundary in the area of 1.1028 will lead to the formation of new pressure on the pair.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of GBP/USD on November 12th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Boris Johnson may return to the idea

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – upward.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – upward.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 32.5643

The British pound, which yesterday unexpectedly rose by 80 points, just as unexpectedly as 800 a few weeks ago, seems to end its climb. Recall that the information, which this time pushed the pound up, stated that the leader of the Brexit party, Nigel Farage, would not run for election in the constituencies won by the Conservatives in 2017. That is, Farage almost openly declared that he is in the same boat with the conservatives in the upcoming elections, and the goal of his party is to wean as many votes from competitors as possible.

How honest this is with the electorate is the question. That is, it turns out that the British political forces, to achieve their goals, will not be allowed in some districts (and there are only 317 of them) to vote, for example, for Brexit party deputies. Like this? It is clear that Farage and Boris Johnson have decided to join forces to implement Brexit, and for this to happen, a convincing victory is needed in the election, but, from our point of view, this is beyond "fair play". However, for Boris Johnson, such actions are not new. We recall only the topic with the prophecy of the work of Parliament, with which Johnson simply wanted to remove the deputies so that they could not block the "hard" Brexit. Well, somewhere in Washington, US President Donald Trump rejoices, who is sleeping and seeing how Great Britain will leave the EU, preferably without any agreements. Trump's idea worked, the Brexit and Conservative parties joined forces. Now we need to win on December 12. And then – the most interesting. Donald Trump is in favor of a speedy Brexit, but against making any "deals". It is the same option that Nigel Farage holds. But Boris Johnson, who initially had the same rhetoric, has now changed it to "Brexit with a deal," as Parliament refused to approve the option of leaving without an agreement, and Johnson's "move of the horse" with prorogation failed. However, if the conservatives win the election with the necessary advantage, will Boris Johnson return to the idea of implementing a "hard" Brexit? If the votes in parliament are enough to support any Brexit scenario, will the Prime Minister return to the idea of an unordered divorce, given that his name is often associated with the name of Donald Trump, who opposes any agreements with Brussels and promises a "grand" trade deal if there are no agreements with the European Union? We believe that this is a very serious issue, because you can expect anything from Johnson, and the people of the UK need to take the issue of voting very seriously, because without too much pathos we can say that the upcoming elections will indeed be one of the most important in recent decades for the United Kingdom. Of course, Boris Johnson's return to the idea of a "hard" Brexit is just a hypothesis now.

The pound, from our point of view, reacted once again not quite logically. We do not believe that the growing chances of a conservative victory are positive news for the pound. At least as long as the party is led by Boris Johnson, who, if he had his way, would have left the EU long ago, without wasting time negotiating an agreement. Thus, we believe that with the growing chances of the conservatives winning the election, the chances of some sort of "surprise" from Boris Johnson are also growing. And this "surprise" is unlikely to please the British currency. From a technical point of view, the pound/dollar pair is now fixed above the moving average line, so the trend has changed to an upward one. However, we believe that today or tomorrow, the pair will return to the area below the moving average. Today, for example, traders may be disappointed by another package of weak macroeconomic information from the UK.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2848

S2 – 1.2817

S3 – 1.2787

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2878

R2 – 1.2909

R3 – 1.2939

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has consolidated above the moving average, while volatility remains low. Formally, traders can now consider buying the pound with targets of 1.2878, 1.2909, and 1.2939. However, we still recommend trading small volumes. The downward movement of the pair in the coming days remains preferable, however, now the bears need to wait for the pair to re-consolidate below the moving average line.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of EUR/USD on November 12th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". The dollar holds a key advantage in

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -72.9228

The first trading day of the week passed for the EUR/USD pair, as we expected, in a correction movement, weak, which may end today. In general, nothing interesting happened in the European Union and the States on Monday. Nothing interesting that could be reflected in the chart of the euro/dollar currency pair. Thus, the downward trend remains, the lower channel of linear regression turned down, supporting the downward movement in the medium term.

On Tuesday, November 12, market participants will be able to turn their attention only to the data from the ZEW Institute. We are talking about the index of assessment of current economic conditions and the index of sentiment in the business environment of Germany, as well as the index of economic expectations in the European Union. However, firstly, these indices have the status of secondary macroeconomic indicators, and secondly, they have long been in the negative zone, indicating negative investor sentiment and are unlikely to return to the "green" zone today. Thus, traders will only be able to make sure once again that in terms of the business and investment climate in Germany and the European Union, everything remains in place, no more. Well, the European currency may well resume falling today. Not because the above indices will exert pressure, but because, as we have already said, traders have been getting rid of the euro for several days in a row (despite the presence or absence of a fundamental background of intraday). This suggests that the bulls have lost the initiative, respectively, the market is now in the "bearish paws". And the euro will tend to fall to its two-year lows, which are not so far from the current exchange rate of the pair, just 130 points.

However, calm in the market will not last long, as we think. Tomorrow, in Germany, the consumer price index will be released, in the European Union – industrial production, and in the States – inflation and Jerome Powell will speak in Congress. Thus, surges in volatility are possible tomorrow, and until the evening the euro can continue to remain under pressure since few people now believe that industrial production or inflation in Europe can "rise". The head of the Fed will speak first to the Joint Economic Committee, and later to the budget committee of the House of Representatives. In principle, the main questions to the Fed chairman will remain the same. What is the Fed going to do with the rate in the coming months? According to many experts, the Fed will take a pause, and the pause is not short-term, but at least for a year. Donald Trump, of course, will not be delighted with Jerome's decision, however, it certainly makes no sense to lower the rate for the fourth time in a row. Thus, if the euro did not grow much after three easing of the US monetary policy, now that the pause is indeed very likely, the euro has excellent chances to go to conquer new lowlands, since the ECB has not hinted at any pauses in the cycle of changing the key rate. Accordingly, a new easing can be expected in the coming months from the European Central Bank, led by Christine Lagarde. But even if this does not happen, the US monetary policy is still much more "hawkish" than the ECB's policy. Thus, the US currency retains an advantage over the euro.

From a technical point of view, the pair continues to adjust, but one closed blue bar indicates readiness for the resumption of the downward trend. Two bars of blue color is already a signal for new sales. The bulls still have no chance, because the fundamental backdrop today will once again be empty. There are no grounds for a sharp change in sentiment in the forex market today.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.0986

S2 – 1.0925

S3 – 1.0864

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1047

R2 – 1.1108

R3 – 1.1169

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair is still in a weak upward correction. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards will indicate the completion of the correction and in this case, it is recommended to sell the euro again with the target of the Murray level of "4/8" - 1.0986. Purchases of the pair are now impractical since there are no fundamental or technical reasons for this.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones AUDUSD 11/12/19

On Friday, there was a violation of the upward momentum, which allows us today to consider growth as an opportunity to profitably sell the pair. The target of the decline is the weekly control zone 0.6811-0.6799. The probability of testing this zone is 75%, which makes it the main target of the bearish movement.

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Yesterday's high may become a determining level. If this test leads to the formation of the pattern of "absorption", then it will be necessary to enter the sale.

An alternative model will be developed if the closure of today's US session occurs above yesterday's high. This will indicate the emergence of market buyers. In this case, sales will have to be postponed to the main resistance zone of the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 0.6899-0.6893.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones EURUSD 11/12/19

Today's growth is a correction to the bearish momentum of last week, so the WCZ 1/4 1.1055-1.1052 will act as the first resistance. If the zone test leads to the formation of a pattern of "absorption", then sales will again come to the fore. The first target of the decline will be the local weekly minimum.

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On Monday, the margin requirements changed, which obliges to recalculate the control zones. Those areas that have not been tested need to be rebuilt to meet the new requirements.

An alternative growth model will be developed if today's US session closes above yesterday's high. This will form a pattern of "absorption" of the daily level. The next growth target will be WCZ 1/2 1.1095-1.1088. The test of this zone will be decisive for the entire downward medium-term momentum.

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Daily CZ – daily control zone. A zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ – weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ – monthly control zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, November 12, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic reports will be released such as ZEW Economic Sentiment and German ZEW Economic Sentiment. The US will also publish the economic data such as Mortgage Delinquencies and NFIB Small Business Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1090. Strong Resistance: 1.1084. Original Resistance: 1.1073. Inner Sell Area: 1.1062. Target Inner Area: 1.1036. Inner Buy Area: 1.1010. Original Support: 1.0999. Strong Support: 1.0988. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0982. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, November 12, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y, 30-y Bond Auction, and M2 Money Stock y/y. The US will also publish some economic data such as Mortgage Delinquencies and NFIB Small Business Index. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 109.73. Resistance. 2: 109.53. Resistance. 1: 109.31. Support. 1: 109.04. Support. 2: 108.83. Support. 3: 108.61. (Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 12, 2019

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro lingered on supporting the MACD line of the daily chart. The price remains above both indicator lines - balance and MACD, in this case, it is likely that a short-term consolidation will form in order to accumulate strength for a break down. The immediate target is still the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0985, below it the second target of 1.0925 - the lows of September 3 and 12.

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On a four-hour chart, the price remains in a downward trend - indicator lines are high above the price, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is still in the zone of negative numbers. The most significant sign of growth here is the double convergence of the oscillator. A possible correction is probably limited by the level of 1.1063 - the high of October 11, because it was after overcoming this level that the euro accelerated its fall on November 7.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on November 12, 2019

GBP/USD

The British pound jumped 120 points yesterday and closed the day with a total of 75 points on an unexpected statement by Brexit leader Nigel Faraj refusing to fight the Conservative Party during the election campaign to avoid a second referendum. Moreover, Faraj announced his intention to fight with opposition parties. The market reaction looks more than strange, because such an action means a separate Brexit deal with Conservatives, the strengthening of Boris Johnson's position, and, accordingly, the exit from the EU on its terms. That is, nothing changed for the pound yesterday. Faraj's position can be understood only in a different light - his party's rating in the last poll fell to 6% and he still has a chance to get into Parliament in the bloc with the Conservatives. The Conservative party has a rating of 41%, the Labour Party is second with 29%, the Liberal Democratic Party is third with 15%, and Brexit is only 4th, ahead of only 5% of the SNPs.

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The growth of the pound occurred in a relatively thin market, the daily volume was almost the smallest in the last month. We look forward to a quick price reversal down. But, nevertheless, the impulse was set yesterday, it can be worked out until it is completely depleted by another attempt to grow with the conditional intention of the market to block yesterday's high. The Marlin oscillator signal line on the daily chart is testing the boundary with the growth territory, which also suggests a speedy price reversal.

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On the four-hour chart, the last attempt at growth may look like an increase to the MACD line and a correction level of 61.8%, that is, to the area of yesterday's price peak.

A scenario with the price moving down from current levels is equally probable. We are waiting for the price at 1.2768 with any plan- the low of Friday.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on November 12, 2019

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar continues to systematically decline to the designated target of 0.6810 - this is the low of October 25, to which the MACD line of the daily scale is aiming. Consolidation below the level opens the way to the embedded line of the red price channel in the region of 0.6752. The Marlin oscillator has entered the negative trend zone.

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On the four-hour chart, the price is still developing under the lines of balance (red indicator) and MACD (blue indicator), the leading Marlin oscillator does not give noticeable reversal signals, except perhaps for a weak convergence that precedes a short consolidation.

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#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options for November 12, 2019 APLs

New week - change of mood? - Comprehensive analysis of movement options - #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY - H4 for November 12, 2019

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US dollar index

Starting November 12, 2019, the development of the #USDX dollar index movement will be determined by the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (98.30 - 98.03 - 97.77) of the Minuette operational scale forks, taking into account the development of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (98.10 - 97.97 - 97.86) of the Minuette operational scale fork. Look at the details on the chart.

The breakdown of the support level of 97.77 at the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel, of the Minuette operational scale forks will direct the movement #USDX to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (97.70 - 97.50 - 97.30) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, the breakdown of the resistance level of 98.30 on the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel, followed by the breakdown of the initial line SSL Minuette (98.35) and ISL38.2 Minuette (98.40) will determine the development of the movement of the dollar index in the equilibrium zone (98.40 - 98.75 - 99.11) of the Minuette operational scale.

The details of the #USDX movement are presented on the chart.

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Euro vs US Dollar

The development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from November 12, 2019 will be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.1060 (lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette);
  • support level of 1.1025 (reaction line RL100.0 forks of the Minuette operational scale forks)

In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1060, the development of the single European currency movement will occur within the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1060 - 1.1090 - 1.1122) of the Minuette operational scale forks and the equilibrium zone (1.1085 - 1.1105 - 1.1130) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the final Schiff Line Minuette (1.1144).

The breakdown of the reaction line RL100.0 Minuette (support level of 1.1025) with the subsequent update of the local minimum 1.1017 will determine the continuation of the downward movement of EUR / USD to the equilibrium zone (1.0975 - 1.0935 - 1.0890) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown on the chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

From November 12, 2019, the development of Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency movement will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2840 - 1.2865 - 1.2885) and the equilibrium zone (1.2885 - 1.2917 - 1.2950) of the Minuette operational scale forks. We look at movement details on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (resistance level of 1.2950) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks will confirm the further development of the GBP / USD movement in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2940 - 1.3012 - 1.3105) o of the Minuette operational scale forks.

In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (support level of 1.2840) the downward movement of Her Majesty's currency can be continued towards the goals - the initial line SSL Minuette (1.2782) - the control line LTL Minuette (1.2765) - the equilibrium zone (1.2725 - 1.2635 - 1.2540) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen on the chart.

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

The development of the USD / JPY currency movement of the "country of the rising sun" from November 12, 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (109.05 - 108.85 - 108.70) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details are shown on the chart.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (support level of 108.70) - continuation of the development of the downward movement of the currency of the country of the "rising sun" to the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale forks (108.15 - 107.75 - 107.45) and Minuette (107.75 - 107.35 - 106.95).

On the contrary, the return of USD / JPY above the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (resistance level of 109.05) of the Minuette operational scale fork will make it possible to develop the upward movement of this currency instrument to the goals - maximums (109.29 - 109.50) - control line UTL Minuette (109.60) - warning lines UWL38.2 (109.70) - UWL61.8 (110.05) of the Minuette operational scale forks

The details of the USD / JPY movement are presented on the chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for November 12

Forecast for November 12:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1108, 1.1090, 1.1064, 1.1044, 1.1013, 1.0973 and 1.0941. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 4. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1013. In this case, the target is 1.0973. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.0941. Upon reaching this value, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.1044 - 1.1064. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1090. The range 1.1090 - 1.1108 is a key support for the downward structure, before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1045 Take profit: 1.1062

Buy: 1.1065 Take profit: 1.1090

Sell: 1.1012 Take profit: 1.0975

Sell: 1.0971 Take profit: 1.0941

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3032, 1.2997, 1.2946, 1.2905, 1.2876, 1.2840, 1.2817, 1.2790 and 1.2765. Here, the price forms the expressed initial conditions for the top of November 8. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.2876 - 1.2905. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to movement to the level of 1.2946. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.2946 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2997. We consider the level 1.3032 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

A short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2840 - 1.2817. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2790. This level is a key support for the top, its passage at the price will lead to the formation of a local descending structure. Here, the first goal is 1.2765.

The main trend is building potential for the top of November 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2876 Take profit: 1.2905

Buy: 1.2907 Take profit: 1.2944

Sell: 1.2840 Take profit: 1.2818

Sell: 1.2815 Take profit: 1.2792

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0025, 1.0001, 0.9968, 0.9933, 0.9919, 0.9900 and 0.9890. Here, we are following the medium-term ascending structure of November 1. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9968. In this case, the target is 1.0001. Price consolidation is near this level. We consider the level 1.0025 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 0.9933 - 0.9919. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9900. The range 0.9900 - 0.9890 is the key support.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure from November 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9970 Take profit: 1.0000

Buy : 1.0002 Take profit: 1.0025

Sell: 0.9933 Take profit: 0.9920

Sell: 0.9917 Take profit: 0.9900

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.12, 109.79, 109.54, 109.28, 109.03, 108.84 and 108.62. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the local ascending structure on November 7. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 109.28. Here, the first goal is 109.54. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow you to count on moving to 109.79. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 110.12.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 109.03 - 108.84. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the cancellation of the local ascending structure from November 7. Here, the first goal is 108.62.

The main trend: the upward cycle of November 1, the local structure of November 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.28 Take profit: 109.52

Buy : 109.55 Take profit: 109.77

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 108.82 Take profit: 108.62

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3332, 1.3268, 1.3246, 1.3208, 1.3185 and 1.3156. Here, we are following the medium-term upward structure from October 29, as well as the local structure for the top from November 5. Short-term movement to the top is expected in the range of 1.3246 - 1.3268. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the potential target is 1.3332, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3208 - 1.3185. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3156. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the medium-term initial conditions for the upward movement of November 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3246 Take profit: 1.3266

Buy : 1.3270 Take profit: 1.3332

Sell: 1.3208 Take profit: 1.3187

Sell: 1.3183 Take profit: 1.3156

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6895, 0.6879, 0.6866, 0.6845, 0.6836, 0.6810 and 0.6793. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 5. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 0.6854 - 0.6836. In this case, the target is 0.6810. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6793, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6866 - 0.6879. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6895. This level is a key support for the downward structure from November 5.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 5.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6866 Take profit: 0.6877

Buy: 0.6880 Take profit: 0.6895

Sell : 0.6836 Take profit : 0.6812

Sell: 0.6808 Take profit: 0.6793

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 120.87, 120.62, 120.41, 120.03, 119.83, 119.38 and 119.07. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of October 30. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 120.03 - 119.83. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 119.38. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 119.07. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 120.41 - 120.62. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 120.87. This level is a key support for the downward trend.

The main trend is the downward cycle of October 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 120.41 Take profit: 120.62

Buy: 120.64 Take profit: 120.87

Sell: 120.03 Take profit: 119.85

Sell: 119.80 Take profit: 119.38

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 141.57, 141.27, 140.72, 139.36, 138.97, 138.51, 138.19 and 137.71. Here, as the main structure, we consider the downward trend of November 5, and the price has also formed the potential for the top of November 11. The level of 140.72 is the key support for the initial conditions of November 5. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of the ascending structure of November 11. Here, the first potential target is 141.27. Price consolidation is in the range of 141.27 - 141.57. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 139.36 - 138.97.

The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement to the level of 138.51. Price consolidation is in the range of 138.51 - 138.19. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 137.71. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback in the correction.

The main trend is the descending structure of November 5, the potential for the top of November 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 140.72 Take profit: 141.27

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 139.36 Take profit: 138.98

Sell: 138.95 Take profit: 138.51

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Gold prospects in November and December

Gold was the main hope of investors in 2019, but it was also the main disappointment at the beginning of the final fourth quarter. Gold investors were optimistic in September, but then they were disappointed, which last week turned into a panic. So what happened in the gold market and why did it suddenly began to decline instead of continuing to grow? In this article I will try to answer this question and consider the prospects of the precious metal until the end of this year.

If you read my precious metals market analytics published on the InstaForex portal on October 9, then you know that back in September I bet on raising the price of gold. However, in early October, my point of view has changed, suggesting that the price of gold will be in a correction to the rising trend of the daily time until the end of November.

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Despite the fact that November is in full swing, today we see that I was right, and the price of gold is actively declining and has reached the level of $1,450 per troy ounce. In this regard, I will try to predict the dynamics of prices in the context of the analysis methods that I used earlier, for which we turn to the data of the futures market, which determines the price of gold in US dollars around the world, due to the fact that the American futures market has the highest liquidity among all other markets.

The main futures contracts in gold are February, April, June, August and December, where June and December play a key role in determining the price of a half-year and a year, as well as calculating profits and losses for these periods. The main buyers of gold in the futures market are the so-called money managers, managing funds or simply speculators. It depends on their moods whether gold will rise in price or not. In the cash market, the function of buyers of gold, determining the price, perform the Exchange Trading Funds (ETFs). Yes, it is speculators, not central banks, that determine the current price of gold in US dollars, and I will prove it to you. That is why we will closely monitor the stock trading funds and money managers.

In September, investments in global ETFs secured by gold reached a new record high of 2852.17 tons, exceeding the peak of 2012 (Fig. 1)

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Fig. 1: Gold reserves in exchange trading funds exceeded the high of 2012

As you can see, the demand for the so-called "paper gold" was excellent, but it was not confirmed by the demand for gold bullion and coins. According to the World Gold Council, in the third quarter of 2019, the demand for bullion and coins was 50% lower than in the third quarter of 2018, and amounted to only 150.3 tons. Demand in India fell by 35%, demand in China was lower by 51%. Amazing right?

These data, among other things, confirm my assumption that the price is most influenced by the demand of North American speculators, but they also show the discrepancy between the fast - speculative and investment demand for gold. If not for demand from speculators, the price of gold could collapse to the region of $1200, or even $1100, instead of soaring to the level of $ 1550.

In addition to the above, it should be noted that central banks bought 38% less gold in the third quarter of 2019 than in the third quarter of last year. In turn, demand for jewelry also fell by 16%, and in India it fell by -32%, and in China by -12%.

Let's look at what is happening on the futures market. If we talk about the amount of money, since September, the Open Interest has stabilized near the mark of 1 million 50 thousand contracts and now amounts to 1 million 71 thousand. The aggregate positions of speculators have also stabilized at the level of 230 thousand contracts, they are not growing, but they are not falling. In such circumstances, at least it is not rational to expect a price increase. If there is no demand on the market or it remains at constant values, how can the price rise? Rather, the current situation is a reflection of the range that we have seen over the past two months. A range is, of course, a continuation figure, but who's to say that at the top it can't turn into a reversal pattern?

However, it was not without reason that at the beginning of the article I remembered the December gold futures contract as the main contract closing the current year. In the third quarter, option sellers suffered serious losses, and now they need to end the year with a profit, for which the futures price should close in the area of 1450 (Fig. 2).

This follows from theory and practice suggesting that most options close out of money. If sellers had trouble in the third quarter, when they were forced to put gold at unfavorable prices and suffer losses, then allowing it twice in a row, and even doing this in the absence of growth in demand, would be very rash on the part of large structures that actually control given market.

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Fig. 2: Distribution of optional barriers, December futures.

Today, the price of gold surpassed the $1,450 mark, but the option contract closes on November 25, that is, in two weeks. Given the date of expiration, it can be assumed that the price of gold may well drop to $1425 and then return to $1450 or close slightly higher. However, taking into account the fact that the level of $1450 is a rather powerful strike in itself, a rebound from this level is possible and a return to the level of $1500, or $1485.

However, there is another circumstance that I would like to draw the attention of traders. Lowering the price below the level of $1450 and closing the week below this value will mean opening new prospects below, due to the fact that the level of $1450 is the key low of October. This, in turn, means the possibility of a deeper decline, for example, in the area of $1375. So far, in the February option contract, closing on December 26, such depths are not visible, but the liquidity there is not very large. If traders see the possibility of a further decline, then gold can very quickly fall to these values, but this will be a different story. Therefore, follow my articles, and I, in turn, will try to respond promptly to a changing situation.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Volumetric oil analysis and trading idea

So, last Wednesday, as you know, data on excess oil reserves came out in the United States. Traders, naturally, reacted with sales, and this is understandable. The next day, on Thursday, after stock, the positive news came out from the fields of negotiations between the US and China about plans to abolish mutual duties - and the news won back in positive territory. On Friday, there was a bullish takeover at D1 and the day closed even higher, which suggests that the seller is very weak during the Oil Reserves Day. Therefore, the players win back the "duties"

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As a result, updating the 57.88 on the futures is expected. In addition, since 57.88 is formed by a weak seller, it is very likely that this extremum will be broken, and the next target is 59.5 dollars per barrel. If you will implement this trading idea on a "spot" - transfer trading levels relative to the body of the candles.

Good luck in trading and follow the money management.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Faded gold: is it worth "picking up" the cheaper precious metal?

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Gold fell by more than 3% on the news that Beijing had agreed with Washington on a phased reduction in tariffs. However, the subsequent statements by US President Donald Trump that he was not ready to completely abolish duties on Chinese products weakened optimism about the US-Chinese trade deal.

Against this background, gold managed to win back some of the points after falling to three-month lows, but the precious metal lacked a confident bullish momentum.

Despite attempts to increase, the fall of gold does not seem to have ended and a continuation will follow.

Apparently, there is a "shake" in the precious metal market, which may lead to testing a 200-day moving average, which is now in the region of $1,390 per ounce.

Moreover, it is possible that quotes can test the level of $ 1360 per ounce.

It is important to understand that the level of $1,500 per ounce is a kind of "rubicon". If the price consolidates above this level, then it will go to the mark of $2,000. Otherwise, testing the level of $1,000 will be only a matter of time.

Most likely, in the end, gold will still be able to gain a foothold over the level of $1,500, but before that, the market expects a final "shake" with a "dive" of prices closer to the level of $1,400 and, possibly, briefly lower. Such "sales" can be used to buy precious metals, since then it will rise in price.

Gold demand is expected to grow for the following reasons.

Firstly, despite the positive mood that has recently engulfed markets, the world is still troubled. In addition, the threat of a global recession has not been canceled, and the United States and China still have not shaken hands.

Secondly, a lot of liquidity is pouring into the market. These are lowering interest rates and new asset buyback programs in the US and the EU. Therefore, whatever one may say, when optimism in the market is over, liquidity will not go anywhere: gold will be bought among other instruments.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Do not trade USD until Wednesday/Thursday

I present to you the evening market analysis.

So today, Monday is one of the worst days to trade in a week, according to many experienced traders. However, if we filter out prejudice and look at the economic calendar, then the next news we will see is only on Wednesday and Thursday. Below, I noted all the important news on USD by the end of the week:

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As you can see, this week, we have inflation on Wednesday, and on Thursday, PPI and Powell will be powerful volatile days. Think about it yourself, if you are a bank trader and know that on Wednesday - USD inflation - will you be gaining a position on rumors about its increase or decrease? Of course not! Do you know why? Because all profitable participants are "accountable" people, i.e. they report on their actions to management, investors, etc. Because it is a business. That is why market volatility is falling ahead of the good news. And now is just such a moment. Therefore, I recommend to wait until Wednesday and Thursday.

Most private traders trade a pair of EUR / USD, and I think that it's better to forget about "dollar" instruments by Wednesday. For saving money in flat is a great art. I'm perhaps the only analyst who will periodically recommend you not to trade :). "Stay in the cache" - believe me - far from the worst option in trading. After all, the main task in trade is to save a deposit.

Good luck in trading and see you at the morning review!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Kiwi is alarmed: the threat of collapse is near

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The New Zealand currency is currently not in the best shape, analysts said. The threat of a serious fall hangs over it with the sword of Damocles. The general state of New Zealand's economy is also far from ideal.

Analysts consider the reasons for the possible drawdown of the NZD/USD pair to be a general slowdown in the global economy and continuing uncertainty in US-China trade relations. These factors create the prerequisites for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to reduce the interest rate to 64%. If the regulator leaves the rate unchanged, its forecasts will still be pessimistic. This will be the first step towards easing monetary policy in early 2020.

Recall that in August 2019, the RBNZ reduced the rate immediately by 50 basis points (bp), to 1.00%. The regulator explained its decision by the aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China, as well as the loss of momentum in the New Zealand economy. The authorities of New Zealand believe that increasing uncertainty and a decline in international trade will reduce the export of goods and services, as well as contribute to a decrease in economic growth in the trading countries of the island nation. The RBNZ management records a low wage growth in the country and a reduction in inflation expectations.

According to analysts, the regulator is currently leaning towards further easing of monetary policy. It is expected that during the upcoming meeting, the interest rate will be reduced by 0.25%, to 0.75%. Experts consider this a negative factor for the New Zealand dollar.

Analysts attribute the negative drivers of the potential kiwi collapse to an increase in unemployment to 4.2% recorded in the third quarter of 2019, as well as a decrease in expectations about the conclusion of the "first phase" of a trade agreement between Washington and Beijing.

Recall that China is a leading trade and economic partner of New Zealand and a buyer of raw materials and agricultural products of the country. The slowdown in the Chinese economy has an extremely negative impact on New Zealand's economic growth, experts emphasize. The worsening macroeconomic indicators of China strongly hits similar indicators of the New Zealand economy. As a result, the New Zealand economy suffers both from a slowdown in the global economy and from a decrease in the volume of purchases of national products, including from China.

A key place in the economy of New Zealand is occupied by timber and agricultural complexes, and the lion's share of exports is made up of dairy products, primarily milk powder. Rising global prices for dairy products provides additional support for the New Zealand currency, experts emphasize. However, negative factors can outweigh the positive effect.

The authorities of New Zealand are certain that in order to stabilize the national economy and increase inflation, the New Zealand dollar should be weakened. Analysts believe that the RBNZ will lower the rate and confirm its commitment to pursue a soft monetary policy. This will increase pressure on the Kiwi, analysts warn.

In early November, the New Zealand dollar and the NZD/USD pair resumed their decline, remaining within the global downward trend. On Monday, November 11, the NZD/USD pair rose to a short-term resistance level of 0.6372. Subsequently, the pair cruised near the levels of 0.6362–0.6363.

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According to experts, in the event that the NZD/USD pair sharply drops below the resistance level of 0.6525, it should be in short positions. A breakdown of the local support level of 0.6322 may be considered a signal to resume sales of the NZD/USD pair.

At a certain point, the pair rose to 0.6367, but did not overcome this bar. The NZD/USD pair showed a downward trend.

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At the moment, the pair is trading in the range of 0.6364–0.6365, maintaining a relatively flat position. According to experts, one should not expect further growth from the kiwi and the NZD/USD pair. It is limited by the decrease in the RBNZ interest rate and the regulator's penchant for soft monetary policy.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD and USDCAD: Euro may start an upward correction. Canadian dollar will remain under pressure amid weak data

Euro and pound under pressure against the US dollar at the end of last week after the release of good data on US sentiment, which slightly improved in early November.

However, it was already possible to observe a slight upward correction in the trading instruments today at the European session. The euro demonstrated a technical breakdown of the important resistance of 1.1026, which led to a slight demolition of the seller's stop orders and the strengthening of risky assets. The pound rose after data on the UK economy and a report on industrial production.

As I noted above, a University of Michigan study indicated that the preliminary consumer sentiment index was 95.7 points in November versus 95.5 points at the end of October this year. Economists had expected the index to reach 95.3 points in November. But the current conditions index weakened in November and dropped to 110.9 points against 113.2 points in October. However, the decrease in this indicator was offset by expectations regarding the future situation, where the index rose to 85.9 points in November against 84.2 points in October. It is noteworthy that the actions of the administration of the American President to unleash trade wars do not greatly concern ordinary Americans. The study indicated that only 1 out of 4 respondents spoke negatively about the introduction of fees.

introduction of duties.

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On Friday, Lael Brainard, one of the members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, also delivered a speech. She said that after all the work done with interest rates, the central bank needs to focus more on the impact of climate change on monetary policy. We are talking about climate change, which may affect long-term prospects for labor productivity, which will negatively affect the level of real interest rates. This is a study in which it is indicated that abnormal periods of warming leads to an increase in insurance premiums and increased costs, which will necessarily have consequences for economic activity.

As for the current technical picture of the EURUSD pair, so far, there is no serious demand for risky assets after buyers return the level of 1.1025. Most likely, the bulls will take a number of active actions and try to tighten the trading instrument to the resistance of 1.1050, however, to continue the upward correction, stronger fundamental data will be required. Also, in the hope of maintaining a downward trend, bears will be more active in protecting this range. The return of the pair to the level of 1.1010 will lead to a new wave of sales of risky assets with updating lows in the areas of 1.0990 and 1.0940.

USDCAD

The Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar after the release of fundamental statistics on Friday and continues to remain under pressure. To continue the upward correction of the USDCAD pair, a breakdown of last week's high in the area of 1.3235 is necessary, which will open a direct path for the bulls to new resistance levels 1.3270 and 1.3330.

If traders calmly accepted the decline in building permits in Canada, then the information that job creation in Canada unexpectedly stalled in October this year increased pressure on the Canadian dollar.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics Canada, building permits in September 2019 immediately fell by 6.5% compared with August and amounted to 8.34 billion Canadian dollars. Economists had expected permits to decline by 1%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, permits increased by 2.1%.

Bookmarks of new homes in October also fell, and immediately by 8.7%. So, compared with the previous month, the number of bookmarks was 201,973 against 221,135. Economists expected bookmarks to be 225,000.

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According to the Canadian Bureau of Statistics, the number of jobs in Canada fell by 1800 in October 2019, while economists expected, on the contrary, an increase of 17,000. The unemployment rate in October was 5.5%. The main reduction was due to the manufacturing sector. But the average hourly earnings in October showed annual growth of 4.0%, which is a good indicator.

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Dark, even darker: the euro again predicted a collapse

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The dynamics of the European currency continues to alarm analysts. Most of them stubbornly predict the fall of the euro. However, the situation may unfold in such a way that after some time the single currency will be able to rise.

The European currency again disappointed market participants last Friday, plummeting to a new three-week low against the American one. The EUR/USD pair dipped 0.2% to 1.1028, the lowest level since mid-October 2019.

On Monday, November 11, at some point, the pair showed even more negative dynamics, reaching 1.1031.

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Amid a weakening euro, the greenback perked up and reacted positively to the news of the cancellation of a number of tariffs between China and the United States as part of a possible trade ceasefire. Recall that representatives of both powers said they agreed on the mutual abolition of duties on each other's goods in connection with the possible start of a "first phase" trade deal.

According to preliminary estimates, the market situation will remain favorable for the dollar, most stocks and other risky assets. The reason for this, experts believe, is a decrease in tension in the trade war between Washington and Beijing. However, a drop of tar in a barrel of US-Chinese "honey" could be a recession in the German economy. At present, experts consider the statistical data received from Germany to be relatively positive, but signs of weakening are still present. Analysts urge the authorities of Germany not to relax and take appropriate incentive measures, but the German authorities do not see this as necessary. They believe that the risk of a recession is not too great, and if a recession occurs in the German economy, it will be short-lived.

The current situation significantly weakens the single European currency, analysts said Last week, the euro systematically surrendered to the greenback, and the trend continued at the beginning of this week. The situation can be corrected by strong data on German GDP, analysts said. This will give an acceleration to the European currency, which it lacks.

The cautious optimism regarding the euro" that emerged after the new head of the ECB took office, Christine Lagarde, was replaced by disappointment. Many analysts do not expect anything good for the euro, and some still hold out hope. At the same time, the position of the new head of the ECB regarding monetary policy remains unclear, although, according to preliminary estimates, it will remain in the "soft" range.

Short-term prospects for the European currency will not soon change from gloomy to more rosy, analysts said. Tensions are added by the fact that at any time the United States may decide on car tariffs not in favor of the EU. If this scenario is realized, the euro will receive an additional blow, after which it will be difficult to recover.

At the beginning of this week, the euro made an attempt to overcome the negative trend. In the morning, the EUR/USD pair ran in the range of 1.1021–1.1022, but could not stay within this framework.

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Subsequently, the pair headed to the levels of 1.1026–1.1027, repeating the events of the end of last week. Analysts have recorded a clear trend towards subsidence.

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At the moment, the EUR/USD pair reached the level of 1.1033, but quickly leveled off. Now the pair is trading within the range of 1.1029–1.1030, which keeps the market in suspense. Few people hope for a favorable outcome for the euro, but excessive discouragement is also not observed.

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The near future for the euro is seen by analysts in dark colors, but in the distant future, everything may not be so gloomy. Analysts believe that the single currency will be able to "steer" from a sharp turn, where it strengthened the dollar. Few experts put the euro on the rise, but many are confident that the euro will still show its best.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. November 11. Results of the day. Pound has grown again on emotions. Union of Boris Johnson and Nigel Faraj

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 67p - 58p - 53p - 84p - 54p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 63p (average).

The British pound sharply increased on Monday, November 11, adding about 70 points. Running a little ahead, the pair's behavior was completely unrelated either to today's macroeconomic reports, or to elementary logic and common sense. The information that had the status of "unexpected" and "discouraging" simply entered the market. Traders did not have time to analyze it properly, but simply began to close previously opened positions. Since the pound has been declining recently, the pair's sales were closing, which led to a small, but sharp, increase. But first things first.

Macroeconomic statistics from the UK today not only turned out to be worse than forecasts, or weak, it failed completely, on all fronts. We have already repeatedly stated that the economy of Great Britain continues to deteriorate, but due to the fact that the main attention of market participants is focused on Brexit and the elections, these data are fading into the background. They leave, depart, and there they remain, because no (!!!) reaction to the publication of GDP and industrial production was followed today. Monthly GDP fell by 0.1% in September. That is, the growth rate did not slow down, namely, the volume decreased. The preliminary value for the third quarter indicates that the increase in quarterly terms will not exceed 0.3%, and in annual terms not more than 1.0%. Forecasts were above real values. Is it worth recalling that GDP is the most significant indicator of the state of the economy? Industrial production collapsed quite predictably. In the morning, we said that with those business activity indices that are now fixed in the EU countries (the UK currently remains part of the EU), there can be no question of any growth in industrial production. Thus, the collapse of 1.4% in annual terms in September is still good. Along with such disappointing statistics, the pound managed to rise in price today. What happened?

Recently, the created Brexi party, the initiator of the entire process of divorce from the European Union, Nigel Faraj officially announced that he would not nominate his candidates for elections in those areas where the Conservatives won earlier (in 2017). There are also 317 polling stations. In essence, this means that the Brexit party will work in the elections for the highest possible weaning of votes from Boris Johnson's Conservative party rivals. In fact, this means the coalition between the two parties, which Donald Trump so dreamed of, calling both Faraj and Johnson his friends. The leader of the Brexit party said that the competition of his candidates with the Conservatives could take away part of the votes from Brexit supporters and increase the chances of the Laborites, who are in favor of holding a second referendum, to win. Since Faraj himself advocates a "hard" Brexit without any agreements with the European Union, this is precisely what he motivates his actions to create an alliance with Conservatives, saying that he works for the benefit of the quickest completion of the "divorce" process with the EU. It was after the publication of this information that the pound went up. We will try to analyze whether this plan of Faraj and Johnson is able to bring additional seats to the Conservatives in the Parliament? We believe that if so, then a little. As we have repeatedly said, in the current election they will not vote for one or another program of a particular party, they will vote for Brexit options. That is, in fact, on December 12, a kind of nationwide referendum will take place, where voters will be asked to choose the Brexit option by electing one or another politician of one or another party that supports one or another Brexit scenario. Thus, everyone who is against Brexit will in any case vote for the Labour Party. And the main question is, how many more opponents of Brexit have become over the past three years? In 2016, there were 48%.

The sterling pound, which has grown on emotions, can very quickly return to a downward channel, since nothing has brought the country closer to an orderly exit from the EU. The victory of the Conservatives in the upcoming elections gained a few additional percent of probability, but no more. Thus, from a technical point of view, now short positions are no longer relevant, but the pound/dollar pair already shows a desire to bounce off the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud and the resistance level of 1.2890. Well, a return below the critical line will mean the resumption of a downward trend, albeit not strong.

Trading recommendations:

GBP/USD unexpectedly started an upward correction. Thus, it is recommended that traders wait for the correction to complete, the price to return below the Kijun-sen line, after which it will be possible to resume sales of the pair with the goal of the support level of 1.2716. It is recommended to buy the currency pair under current conditions no earlier than consolidating above the level of 1.2925, which is obtained based on average volatility.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com