USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 14, 2016

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On May 16, a bullish pullback towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was expected to offer a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. However, a lack of a significant bearish rejection was manifested during recent consolidations.

On May 18, temporary bullish fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opened the way towards the 1.3180 level where significant bearish pressure was originated.

Bearish persistence below 1.3000-1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was needed to enhance bearish momentum in the market.

However, on August 18 signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2830 which led to the current bullish breakout above 1.3000.

The USD/CAD pair was trapped between the price levels of 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) until bullish breakout took place last week.

Note that the USD/CAD pair was challenging the upper limit of the depicted flag pattern around 1.3360-1.3400 which failed to apply enough bearish rejection on the pair.

Bullish persistence above 1.3360 will probably liberate a quick bullish movement towards 1.3650 unless the pair comes to close below 1.3360 before the end of the current week.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 14, 2016

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As long as the NZD/USD pair continued trading above 0.6860, further bullish advance was expected towards the upper limit of the depicted channel around 0.7400.

During August and September, a consolidation range was established between the price level of 0.7250 up to 0.7350.

Later on October 20, the lower limit of the consolidation range (0.7250) stood as a temporary resistance which initiated a bearish movement towards 0.7100 (the lower limit of the depicted channel).

Bullish recovery was expressed around the price level of 0.7100 on October 28. Hence, a double-bottom pattern was expressed on the chart.

Bullish fixation above 0.7250 and 0.7350 was needed to allow further bullish advance towards the projection target of the reversal pattern around 0.7450.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were expressed around the upper limit of the price range (0.7350).

Bearish breakdown of 0.7250 (lower limit of the depicted range) enhances the bearish side of the market towards the price level of 0.7100 (the recent bottom of October 28).

Price action should be watched around the price level of 0.7100 ( lower limit of the depicted channel ) to determine the next destination of the NZD/USD pair.

Bearish persistence below 0.7100 allows quick bearish decline towards 0.6960 where bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry should be expected.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 14, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again In February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the depicted supply levels (Note the monthly candlesticks of May, August and October 2016).

In the long term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

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The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish persistence below 1.0825 is needed to enhance this bearish scenario.

In September 2016, temporary bullish breakout above 1.1250 was expressed again, but evident bearish pressure was applied on the EUR/USD pair on September 16.

Bearish closure below 1.1250 (Supply Level-1) maintained enough bearish pressure and enhanced the bearish momentum towards the price level of 1.1000 (Key-Level 1).

Bullish rejection was expected around the price levels of 1.1000 (Key Level-1) and 1.0825 (Key Level-2). However, extensive bearish pressure and significant bearish closure below 1.1000 and 1.0825 were eventually expressed.

On November 9, obvious bearish breakdown of the price level of 1.1000 was achieved (Shooting-Star daily candlestick). Moreover, further bearish decline below 1.0825 is being expressedToday.

The current bearish persistence below 1.0825 allows further bearish decline to occur towards 1.0570 (Demand Level) where price action should be watched for short-term bullish recovery.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 14, 2016

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The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (historical bottoms in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, by the end of June, a significant bearish breakdown below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts (fundamental reasons).

Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhanced the bearish scenario towards the current price levels around 1.2700 (nearest bearish projection target).

Note that the GBP/USD pair was trapped inside the depicted consolidation range above 1.2700 until a bearish breakout took place on October 6.

Daily persistence below 1.2700 confirmed the bearish Flag pattern. Hence, bearish projection target would be located around 1.2020.

Recently, bullish recovery was manifested around 1.2080. That's why, a bullish pullback is being executed towards 1.2700.

The current bullish pullback towards 1.2700 should be considered for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be set as daily closure above 1.2700.

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Global macro overview for 14/11/2016

Global macro overview for 14/11/2016:

The market is not convinced that OPEC and non-OPEC members will reach an agreement to cut output at its November 30 meeting in Vienna. On Friday, OPEC said its output hit a record +33.64 million barrels per day in October and forecasted an even larger global surplus next year. This forecast was also confirmed by International Energy Agency. The IEA anticipates that in 2017 the global oil market will still struggle with the persistent supply growth, similar to 2016, and there's little evidence to suggest that economic activity is robust enough to deliver higher oil demand growth.

Let's now take a look at Crude Oil technical picture in the 4H time frame. Crude oil prices continue to hover near their three-month lows on concerns of another year of oversupply. The market is trading below all of the moving averages and any break out below the technical support at the level of 42.51 will result with another lower low in the sequence and the overall market trend will change from bullish biased to bearish biased.

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Global macro overview for 14/11/2016

Global macro overview for 14/11/2016:

A flash survey showed on Friday, that after falling to its lowest level since 2014 in the previous month, the sentiment of American shoppers improved more than expected. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released at 91.6 points, which was better than last reading of 87.2 points and better than expectations of 87.4 points. Moreover, the CSI Index was 0.3% higher than at the same time last year and it managed to improve in November, even though long-term and short-term inflation expectations climbed to 2.7%. It is important to mention, that this survey was conducted before the Presidential Elections results, so it will be interesting to watch how the sentiment increased after the results were announced.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture at the daily time frame. The bulls have managed to break out above the important high at the level of 99.12 and they are in full control over this market. The next resistance is seen at the level of 100.48, but please notice the bearish divergence is currently forming between the price and the momentum oscillator (suggesting a temporary correction is due).

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 14, 2016

General overview for 14/11/2016:

The last wave in the sequence is about to terminate and a correction to the downside is about to start. The current price action, supported by the Elliott wave count, shows that the market is in the last stages of the ending diagonal pattern in the green wave c of the blue wave c. Any break below the intraday support at the level of 1.3523 will confirm the top is in place and further selling in this market should follow.

Support/Resistance:

1.3663 - WR1

1.3523 - Intraday Support

1.3464 - Weekly Pivot

1.3378 - WS1

1.3290 - 13312 - Demand Zone

1.3265 - Wave (b) Low

Trading recommendations:

Bearing in mind the good risk/reward ratio supported by the current short-term Elliott wave count, day traders should consider opening sell orders with tight SL and TP open for now.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 14, 2016

General overview for 14/11/2016:

The top of the green wave b at the level of 116.58 is still acting as the intraday resistance and only a sustained break above this level can change the bearish bias. However, the market has bounced from a weekly pivot at the level of 115.45 and the price is trying to violate the golden intraday trend line. According to the bearish scenario, there is still one more wave to the downside missing - the green wave c - which is a part of the blue wave c.

Support/Resistance:

117.19 - WR1

116.58 - Intraday Resistance

115.45 - Weekly Pivot

114.37 - WS1

113.70 - Intraday Support

112.66 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Bearing in mind the good risk/reward ratio supported by the current short-term Elliott wave count, day traders should consider opening sell orders with SL just above the high of the green wave b and TP open for now.

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GBP/USD bearish below major resistance

We remain bearish below major resistance at 1.2678 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a drop to at least 1.2383 support.

Stochastics (34,5,3) is reacting off major resistance at 93% and has good downside potential to follow our drop.

Sell below 1.2678. Stop loss at 1.1873. Take profit at 1.2383.

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NZD/USD approaching key support, prepare to buy

Price is approaching major support at 0.7076 (Fibonacci projection, horizontal support) where we expect a bounce up to at least 0.7174.

RSI (34) is also right on a major support level where its previous bounce occurred.

Buy above 0.7076. Stop loss at 0.7018. Take profit at 0.7174.

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AUD/USD approaching key support level, prepare to buy

We are ready to buy above major support at 0.7520 (Fibonacci projection, horizontal support area) to see a bounce up to at least 0.7606.

RSI (34) is also above a major 36% support level.

Buy above 0.7520. Stop loss at 0.7498. Take profit at 0.7606.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 13, 2016

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Overview:

  • The market opened below the weekly resistance 2 (1.2610). The GBP/USD pair continued to move downwards from the level of 1.2560 to the bottom around 1.2471. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.2560 followed by 1.2610, while daily support 1 is set at 1.2470. The GBP/USD pair broke support which turned to strong resistance at 1.2560. Right now, the pair is trading below this level. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the support (1.2470) which is expected to act as major support today. This would suggest a bearish market because the moving average (100) is still in a negative area and does not show any signs of a trend reversal at the moment. Amid the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.2560 and 1.2408. Therefore, the major resistance can be found at 1.2560 providing a clear signal to sell with a target seen at 1.2470. If the trend breaks the minor support at 1.2470, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level of 1.2408 in order to test the daily support 2. Overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay below the zone of 1.2560 and 1.2610 this week. However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 1.2610, then this scenario may be invalidated.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 13, 2016

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.0995. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.0995 which coincides with the weekly pivot point to the bottom around 1.0828. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.0828 followed by 1.0995, while daily support 1 is found at 1.0689. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend as it is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 1.0829 towards the first support level at 1.0750 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.0750, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.0689. Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 1.0689 providing a good spot to take profit today. This week, if the EUR/USD pair breaks through the major support level of 1.0829, a further decline to 1.0600 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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Technical analysis of USDX for November 14, 2016

The Dollar index has made a new high as the bullish reversal after the election day was too strong. However price has reached important resistance area of 99.50. There are bearish divergence signals here and also the rise from 91.90 lows is far from impulsive. This implies that this upward move is part of the correction and not a new up trend.

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Red lines - bullish channel

The Dollar index is testing upper channel boundary. Price touched the cloud support and the lower channel boundary after the elections and is now at the upper boundary. This is resistance area. The RSI is diverging so bulls need to be cautious.

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Red lines - trading range

Green line - important trend line support

In the weekly chart we see price testing the upper trading range boundary. 99.50 is important resistance area. A rejection at current levels will push the index towards the Ichimoku cloud and the green trend line support. A break below the green trend line support will open the way for a push towards the lower trading range boundary.

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Wave analysis of gold for November 14, 2016

Gold price crashed to new lows on Friday and even today closer to our $1,200-$1,180 target area after breaking below $1,250-40. We are in wave 2 down for Gold and this is not the time to be bearish. I expect Gold price to reverse to the upside once wave 2 down is complete.

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Black lines - bearish channel

Gold price is trading inside a bearish short-term channel. Oscillators are oversold and diverging. A bounce at least towards $1,240 should be expected. Important resistance is now at $1,280. A break above it will open the way for a re-test of the highs.

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Green line - long-term resistance trend line

Gold price completed wave B at the green trend line resistance and then we said that a rejection would imply this was wave B and wave C towards the Ichimoku cloud and close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement would follow. We are currently in wave 2 down as long as price is above $1,045. This is my long-term bullish scenario as I believe a long-term reversal has occurred at $1,045. Price has touched the Ichimoku cloud but could very well reach even the 61.8% Fibo.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 14, 2016

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EUR/NZD - Daily

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EUR/NZD - 4 Hourly

Wave summary:

To confirm that a long-term bottom is in place with the test of 1.4812, a break above 1.5516 is needed. Our preferred count shows that an ending diagonal completed with the test of 1.4812 and a break above 1.5516 will confirm a return to the origin of the ending diagonal near 1.5833 and above.

A break above 1.5516 will confirm that the long-term correction from 1.9023 completed at 1.4812 and that a new impulsive rally to above 1.9023 is building.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.4950 with stop placed at 1.4805. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.5025 and use the same stop at 1.4805.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 14, 2016

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EUR/JPY - Daily

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EUR/JPY - 4 Hourly

Wave summary:

A firm break above 116.28 is still needed to release the long-term energy for upside acceleration towards 118.47 and 122. 00 as the next upside targets. Ideally we will see minor support at 115.51 protect the downside for the break above 116.28. However, even if a break below minor support at 115.51 is seen the downside potential should be limited to 114.93 before the next impulsive rally higher is expected.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 115.04 with stop placed at break-even. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 116.33 and use the same stop at 115.04.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 14, 2016

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Industrial Production m/m and the ECB President Draghi Speaks. Today, the US will not release any Economic Data, so, amid the reports, the EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0860.

Strong Resistance:1.0854.

Original Resistance: 1.0843.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0832.

Target Inner Area: 1.0807.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0782.

Original Support: 1.0771.

Strong Support: 1.0760.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0754.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Nov 14, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will release the Revised Industrial Production m/m, Prelim GDP Price Index y/y, Prelim GDP q/q and today the US will not release any Economic Data. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 107.96.

Resistance. 2: 107.74.

Resistance. 1: 107.54.

Support. 1: 107.28.

Support. 2: 107.06.

Support. 3: 106.86.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 14, 2016

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD began trending downwards on November 7, but this was seriously interrupted on Wednesday. However, the bearish journey resumed that day, and the market went down by 240 pips overall. The support line at 1.0850 is being besieged, and it might be breached to the downside. On the other hand, there are chances that the EUR/USD would rally this week, especially when the USD/CHF pulls back significantly.

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USD/CHF: This pair traded sideways on Monday and Tuesday, pulled back significantly on Wednesday and rallied massively the same day. Price was able to close above the support level at 0.9850, going towards the resistance levels at 0.9900 and 1.0000. The resistance level at 1.0000 is a great psychological level – it would be difficult to breach it to the upside.

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GBP/USD: This market consolidated from Monday till Thursday and trended higher on Friday. The bias remains bullish in the short-term and bearish in the long-term. The outlook on the GBP/USD (and some GBP pairs) is bullish for this week. Further movement of about 500 pips to the upside would also result in a bullish signal in the daily chart.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY is already in a bullish mode, as forecasted last week. Price consolidated on Friday and closed above the demand level at 106.50. The next target for bulls are located at the supply levels of 107.00, 107.50 and 108.00. The outlook for most JPY pairs is bullish for this week, and therefore, further bullish journey is anticipated.

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EUR/JPY: Unlike the USD/JPY, this currency trading instrument did not move upwards significantly last week. The market environment is quite choppy, and the possibility of a bullish movement this week would depend on the condition surrounding the Euro. In case price goes upwards, the supply zones at 116.00, 116.50, and 117.00 could be targeted.

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Daily analysis of USDX for November 14, 2016

USDX is getting trapped below the resistance level of 99.08, as the bullish structure is still strengthening. If the index manages to breakout above that zone, then we can expect an advance towards the 99.57 level, as the ground is getting prepared to test the next key interest area of 100.00. However, if the index breaks the last Friday's lows, it can decline to test the 200 SMA, around 98.07.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.08 / 99.57

H1 chart's support levels: 98.65 / 98.00

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 99.08, take profit is at 99.57 and stop loss is at 98.60.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 14, 2016

As GBP/USD remains posting gains above the 1.2500 handle, the bullish bias is getting some exhaustion across the board, as we can see the resistance zone of 1.2637 is trying to push lower to the pair. GBP/USD may attempt a breakout higher over there, as it's noteworthy that the 200 SMA provided a good enough bullish momentum and it could target the 1.2753 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2637 / 1.2753

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2546 / 1.2482

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2637, take profit is at 1.2753 and stop loss is at 1.2522.

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