BITCOIN Analysis for November 9, 2017

Bitcoin has been quite bearish recently after having good amount bullish rejection off the $7,880 resistance area. Due to sudden cancellation of high impact event which was supposed to be held next week Bitcoin market had observed a sudden crash. The fork was done with the objective of increasing the capacity of the Bitcoin network which had some positive vibes to it and made the market gain good momentum but due to lack of agreement between the developers it was cancelled. The price was impulsively bullish yesterday progressing towards $7,880 level before it crashed towards the current market price area of $7,100. Currently the price is residing above the Kumo Cloud support area but below the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line. The Chikou Span is currently residing inside the corrective structure as well showing no significant directional bias. As the price remains above $6,900-$7,000 price area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 09, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $7.145. Britain's Revolut filed a formal application for banking licensing this week. Established British banks are bracing for rule changes domestically and internationally, as more digital-only banks are ever-closer to legal parity with legacy institutions. Technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found fake breakout of resistance at the price of $7.467, which is sign that buying looks risky. I also found a strong bearish engulfing candle formation, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $6.901 and at the price of $6.556.

Support/Resistance

$7.878 – Major resistance high

$6.907 – Pivot support 1

$6.556 – Pivot support 2

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for November 9, 2017

NZD/USD has been quite indecisive today after some bullish gains recently in a long-term bearish market. USD has been dominating in the pair that pushed the price lower from the 0.7550 area to the current level of 0.6950. Recently, due to some downbeat economic reports from the US, NZD gained some momentum. But today indecisive price action is currently indicating that USD might take over again to push the price much lower in the coming days. Today, New Zealand's regulator posted the official cash rate report with an unchanged value of 1.75% as expected that helped the currency to produce a spike along the way but the pair could not sustain the gain. Along with the Official Cash Rate report, the RBNZ released Rate Statement and Monetary Policy Statement and held a press conference where it was confirmed that the economy is developing slowly but due to unchanged wage rates, inflation and a cooling housing market the economic growth is not quite stable. RBNZ was quite hawkish with the long-term development of the economy but meanwhile NZD is expected to lose some ground. On the USD side, today Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 232k from the previous figure of 229k, Final Wholesale Inventories report is expected to be unchanged at 0.3% and Natural Gas Storage report is expected to reveal a decrease to 15B from the previous figure of 65B. As for the current scenario, if the US reports come out with positive readings today, then USD is more likely to gain momentum against NZD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently quite indecisive in nature and being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA and horizontal resistance of 0.6980 area. The price has been quite corrective since it bounced off the 0.0.6900 support area. If the price remains below 0.6980 and dynamic level of 20 EMA with a daily close today, then we expect the price to move lower towards 0.6900 and later towards 0.6820 support area. As the price remains below 0.7000 resistance area with a daily close the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Analysis of Gold for November 09, 2017

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Recently, the Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,288.70. According to the 15M time – frame, I found doji candles at the pivot resistance ($1,287.35), which is sign that buying looks risky. I also found overbought stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportuntiies.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,287.40

R2: $1,293.40

R3: $1,299.55

Support levels:

S1: $1,275.24

S2: $1,269.10

S3: $1,263.10

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 9, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed in the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

If the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback can be expected towards 0.7050 if the current bullish pullback persists above 0.6970 ( Intraday Key-level ).

Trading recommendations:

A valid SELL entry can be offered around the price level of 0.7050 S/L should be placed above 0.7100. T/P levels to be placed at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6830

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 9, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed in the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, the evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Trading Recommendations

Price action should be watched around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 for evident bullish recovery and a possible short-term BUY entry.

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EUR/USD analysis for November 09, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1644. According to the 15M time – frame, I found an evening star formation at the pivotal resistance 3 (1.1640), which is sign that buying looks risky. I also found overbought stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1615 and 1.1590.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1610

R2: 1.1627

R3: 1.1642

Support levels:

S1: 1.1578

S2: 1.1563

S3: 1.1545

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 09/11/2017

The decision to leave the interest rates unchanged was largely expected. The bank also lifted its inflation forecasts to factor in the impact of new government policies and a weaker currency. At the press conference, Acting Reserve Bank Governor Grant Spencer said proposed Government changes would have little effect on the Bank's thinking in current economic conditions. Nevertheless, in he brought forward a potential rate hike to June 2019 from September that year. He added: " "Moving to a dual mandate is unlikely to have an impact on the way we run monetary policy. Currently, inflation was the Bank's primary objective but was not the sole objective". Moreover, Spencer reiterated the mantra the market participants know from the previous meetings already: "monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly". At the end of the meeting, Spencer added, that RBNZ incorporated preliminary estimates of the impact of new government policies in four areas: new government spending; the KiwiBuild programme; tighter visa requirements; and increases in the minimum wage, but the outlook and the impact of this policies remain uncertain.

In conclusion, a dovish tone of the Spencer remarks and the already known RBNZ wait-and-see approach did not bring anything new to the more tightening monetary policy discussion. The New Zealand Dollar has fallen around 2.3% on a trade-weighted index basis since the new government was formed and is around 6.0% below where the bank forecast it would be in the September quarter.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the news was released. The market is at the key level now as it tests the technical resistance at the level of 0.6970 and the golden trend line resistance. Nevertheless, the key level to the upside is still the gray zone between the levels of 0.7057 - 0.7089. Only a sustained breakout through this zone would change the outlook to more bullish in the short-term.

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Global macro overview for 09/11/2017

There are just three rounds of negotiations before December's EU summit, where EU leaders will have to decide (again) if sufficient progress has been made. Except for the recent "dovish hike" by Bank of England and self-evident Brexit uncertainty. the negotiations might have an impact on the British Pound exchange rate as well as the recent internal development on the UK political scene. Scandals are threatening PM May's thin majority and are likely to leave the Tory party (and May's leadership) weakened. Moreover, the UK Government is under the pressure to publish 58 "secret" studies examining the economic impact of Brexit.Those studies are the assessments into how the EU withdrawal will impact on sectors ranging from tourism to pharmaceuticals, which make up nearly 88% of the UK economy. Failure to publish the raft of studies has prompted a major political row with more than 170 cross-party MPs urging their release, while campaigners also threatened the Government with legal action if the assessments were not made public.

Finally, October's CPI will be released next Tuesday, and that may also drive some volatility in the GBP - considering the highly contingent nature of the BoE's current tightening cycle.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market failed to rally above the level of 151.59, reversed and currently is trading close to the technical support at the level of 148.61. A breakout below this level will likely lead to the test of 38% Fibo at the level of 147.66 again and if the sell-off accelerate, then the lows of 146.89 might be tested as well. Weak momentum development supports this bias.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 9, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD is consolidating in the context of a downtrend. There would be a rise in volatility today or tomorrow, which would most probably be in favor of bears. Price may reach the support lines at 1.1550 and 1.1500. Price is currently below the resistance line at 1.1600.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF is moving sideways in the context of an uptrend. There would be a rise in volatility today or tomorrow, which would most probably be in favor of bulls. Price may reach the resistance levels at 1.0050 and 1.0100. Price is currently above the support levels at 0.9950.

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GBP/USD: In spite of the volatility in the market, there is a vivid bearish bias on the Cable. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. The market is expected to go downwards, reaching the accumulation territories at 1.3100, 1.3050 and 1.3000 (which would be attained today or tomorrow).

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USD/JPY: Things are quite choppy on the USD/JPY, but the bullish bias is still extant (though threatened). Since the outlook on USD is bullish, it is more likely that when volatility returns to the market, it is going to favor the bulls. Thus, initial targets are located at the supply levels of 114.00, 114.50 and 115.00. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they could have impact on the markets.

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EUR/JPY: There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the EUR/JPY 4-hour chart. Price went downwards by 120 pips this week, testing the demand zone at 131.50 and then bouncing upwards. The upwards bounce is construed to be an opportunity to sell short at better prices. Thus the demand zone at 131.50 is expected to be tested again.

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Bitcoin analysis for 09/11/2017

A message from Mike Belshe, the chief spokesman, said it was "clear" that the project "did not reach enough consensus to make a clean upgrade of the blocks right now." Belshe's post states that "the Segwit2x effort began in May with a simple purpose: to increase the blocksize and improve Bitcoin scalability. At the time, the Bitcoin community was in crisis after nearly 3 years of heavy debate, and consensus for Segwit seemed like a distant mirage with only 30% support among miners." Belshe adds that "Segwit2x found its first success in August, as it broke the deadlock and quickly led to Segwit's successful activation." Moreover, Belshe states "our goal has always been a smooth upgrade for Bitcoin. Although we strongly believe in the need for a larger blocksize, there is something we believe is even more important: keeping the community together." Belshe concedes "it is clear that we have not built sufficient consensus for a clean blocksize upgrade at this time. Continuing on the current path could divide the community and be a setback to Bitcoin's growth. This was never the goal of Segwit2x."

SegWit2x met with great opposition from the entire Bitcoin community, and several of its followers were under pressure to justify their decision. No replay protection - a mechanism to prevent accidental use of coins on both chains - was the main criticism that even Nick Shabo had opposed SegWit2x.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The sudden drop from a new high at the level of $7,886 did not result in a technical support violation of the level of $6,987 yet. The top might be labeled as the wave (v) high and the overall impulsive cycle from the level of $2,956 termination, despite the fact, that the projected target at the level of $8,356 has not been reached yet.

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Trading plan for 09/11/2017

Surprising reversals in asset prices remain a key theme for this week. The sudden drop of the Nikkei 225 was followed by USD/JPY and other Dollar caresses. EUR/USD jumped to 1.1610. Reserve Bank of New Zealand gave a positive boost to NZD when it left the interest rates unchanged at 1.75%. Risk aversion led USD/CHF down to 0.9973, Gold rose to $1,283.

On Thursday 9th of November, the event calendar is light in important economic data releases, but market participants will keep an eye on ECB Economic Bulletin, European Commission Economic Forecasts data, NIESR GDP Estimate from the UK, New Housing Price Index data from Canada and Unemployment Claims, and Continuing Claims data from the US.

EUR/USD analysis for 09/11/2017:

The EU Commission releases the Autumn 2017 Economic Forecasts today, which will be used as the basis for the detailed assessment of the 2018 Draft Budgetary Plans (DBP) submitted on 15 October. In particular, the EC will assess the fiscal measures announced by the EU governments in the draft budget bill. Any shortcomings or potential drift between the EC estimate and the 2018 government commitment might push the EC to require corrective action. Regarding the 2018 public finances figures, the EC applies the 2018 DBP with its own forecasts and assessment of the efficiency of the measures, which will give an idea of the required fiscal tightening to meet the 2018 targets. In terms of growth, compared to the last report published in April, the EC is set to significantly revise upward its 2017 growth forecasts. Indeed, the EC had a 2017 figure of 1.7% compared with 2.2% for the consensus. Only limited downward revision to inflation is expected for 2017 (EC: 1.6%, consensus: 1.5%). Market participants should also expect minor changes in the 2018 outlook, with growth at slightly below 2.0% (April forecasts, consensus: 1.8%) and inflation at below 1.5% (April forecasts and consensus: 1.3%).

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market jumped towards the level of 1.1610 from the oversold trading conditions. The momentum is not dramatically improving so far, and the move upwards is so far looking as corrective. In case of a further breakout, the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1662 and 1.1690.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY reverses again

The price of USD/JPY has reversed from the top at the level of 114.72 and is trading closer to the key near-term support at the level of 113.25. Any breakout lower will directly expose the level of 112.94 for a test. Until this event, the market remains closed in a narrow horizontal zone between those two levels.

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Market Snapshot: Gold moves higher after the test

The price of Gold has moved towards the next technical resistance at the level of $1,289 after a successful test of the golden trend line from below. The 200-period moving average has been broken as well and the momentum is slowly increasing too. The key zone for bulls is the gray area between the levels of $1,298 - $1,306.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for November 9, 2017

The Dollar index has broken the short-term bullish channel and has entered the 4-hour Kumo (cloud) support area. Trend has changed from bullish to neutral. The Dollar index is showing reversal signs off important medium-term resistance.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

The Dollar index is about to enter the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud. This will change short-term trend to neutral. Support is at 94.69 and next at 94.30. As long as we are above these levels I believe there are still chances of seeing a move towards the big resistance at 95.50.

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As we have been saying for some time now, price is right below the important 38% Fibonacci retracement and the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). This is very important resistance. It is not necessary to reach the exact levels, but overall this is a very important resistance area. A rejection here will have longer-term bearish implications for the Dollar.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis of AUD/JPY for November 9, 2017

AUD/JPY has been very volatile and corrective at the edge of 87.30-50 event area. AUD has been struggling with the mixed economic reports whereas JPY is also found to be facing hard times with recently published worse economic reports. Today Japan's Bank Lending report was published with a decreased value at 2.8% from the previous value of 2.9% which was expected to increase to 3.0%, the Core Machinery Orders report was published with negative value of -8.1% which previously was positive at 3.4% and was expected to be at -1.8%. Besides, the Current Account report was also published with worse figure at 1.84T which previously was at 2.27T and expected to be at 2.05T. On the AUD side, today Home Loans report was published with a negative value of -2.3% which previously was positive at 1.5% and was expected to increase to 2.5%. The massive downfall of the economic report today can lead AUD to lose some grounds against JPY despite the worse economic reports from Japan published today. As of the current scenario, AUD is weaker in comparison to JPY and it is expected that JPY is going to gain further taking the price much lower in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently correcting itself at the edge of the event area of 87.30-50 area. The price is also being resisted by the dynamic level of 20 EMA along with the horizontal level resistance which is expected to push the price lower towards 85.50 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 88.00 resistance area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of gold for November 9, 2017

Gold price has been making higher highs and higher lows since a pullback from the low at $1,263. The short-term trend has changed to bullish and is challenging important resistance at $1,283-86. Gold is in a bullish short-term trend as long as price is above $1,272.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Red rectangle - short-term support

Green rectangle - important medium-term support

Gold price is trading inside a bullish channel. The trend is bullish. Support is at $1,272. Breaking below the red rectangle will increase the chances of breaking below the green rectangle support at $1,262. Breaking below $1,262 will open the way for a push towards $1,245.

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For now, gold price is trading above the daily kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) resistance. A daily close above it will open the way for a push higher towards the Kumo (cloud) resistance at $1,300. A rejection here will increase the chances we are still in a corrective phase and will eventually move towards $1,245-50. I remain longer-term bullish gold.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Last minute burning forecast 09.11.2017

Last minute burning forecast 09.11.2017

EURUSD is prepared for a strong move.

There is complete lull on the market because there are still no important news.

The EURUSD pair showed a very rare intraday consolidation - for almost a day, the movement stood in the range of 1.1580 - 1.1605 - a break of the range boundaries and strong movement is very likely.

In this case, it is possible to expect a strong downward movement and an upward movement.

Occupy the following positions - place orders for breaking the boundaries of the range:

buy stop 1.1625

buy stop 1.1690

sell stop 1.1550

All orders have a stop loss of 45 points from the entry level; the minimum goal is 100 points (points in 4 characters, for example: from 1.1600 to 1.1700 - 100 points)

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 09, 2017

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USD/CHF is under pressure and expected to continue its downside movement. The pair is trading below its key resistance level at 1.0005, which should maintain the selling pressure. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

Therefore, as long as 1.0005 is not surpassed, look for a return to 0.9945. A break below this level would trigger a new decline to 0.9930.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 1.0005, Take Profit: 0.9945

Resistance levels: 1.0025, 1.0040, and 1.0075

Support levels: 0.9945, 0.9930, and 0.9900

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 09, 2017

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Our first target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. USD/JPY is still expected to trade in a lower range. Despite the pair posting a rebound, the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 114.00. The declining 50-period moving average is playing a resistance role. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50.

To sum up, below 114.00, look for a further decline with targets at 113.30 and 113.15 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended above 114.00 with a target at 114.30.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 114.00, Take Profit: 113.30

Resistance levels: 114.30, 114.50 and 114.90 Support Levels: 113.65, 11.30, 112.95

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for November 9, 2017

USD/CAD has been bearish recently after breaking above the 1.2660 resistance area which is currently expected to be retested as support. CAD has been quite mixed in light of recent economic reports. Canada's Employment Change showed positive change to 35.3k from the previous figure of 10.0k which was expected to be at 15.3k, Trade Balance report was published unchanged at -3.2B which was expected to decrease the deficit to -3.0B, and Unemployment Rate report showed an increase to 6.3% which was expected to be unchanged at 6.2%. This mixed reports helped the currency to sustain gains, but USD is expected to make a comeback soon as the Rate Hike is highly probable in December. Today, Canada's NHPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%. Positive outcome of the report is likely to encourage further gains of CAD against USD in the short term. On the USD side, today Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 232k from the previous figure of 229k, Final Wholesale Inventories report is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%, and Natural Gas Storage is expected to decrease to 15B from the previous figure of 65B. As for the current scenario, if Canada's economic reports reveal better than expected readings, then we might see further bearish pressure in the pair whereas negatively forecasted US reports will also be a strong factor for a further directional move in this pair. To sum up, CAD is expected to have an upper hand over USD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some bearish pressure after bouncing off the dynamic support level of 20 EMA. As the price proceeds towards the support level of 1.2660, we will be looking forward for a break below or bounce off the level. If the price breaks below the 1.2660 level with a daily close then, we will consider sell positions with a target towards 1.2410 support area. On the other hand, if the price bounces off the 1.2660 with a daily bearish rejection or bullish engulf, then we will be looking forward to buy with target towards 1.30 resistance area. The bearish bias is expected to continue until price remains below 1.2850 resistance area.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 9 - 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD continues to follow the expected path lower towards the ideal downside target at 1.6545 from where a new impulsive rally towards 1.7770 is expected.

Short-term minor resistance is seen at 1.6750 and a break above here will be the first indication that wave ii has completed and wave iii higher is developing. To confirm that wave iii indeed is developing a break above resistance at 1.6813 is needed.

R3: 1.7059

R2: 1.6890

R1: 1.6813

Pivot: 1.6750

S1: 1.6614

S2: 1.6545

S3: 1.6518

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 1.6790 and will move our stop+revers lower to 1.6770. Take profit+reverse remain at 1.6565.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 09, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to continue the upside movement. The pair posted a strong rebound last night, and is now above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index has reversed up, and is displaying strong bullish momentum.

In which case, as long as 148.90 holds on the downside, look for a continuation of the rebound to 149.90 and 150.35 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 148.90 with the target at 148.50.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 150.30, Take Profit: 149.30

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 149.90, 150.35 and 151.00

Support levels: 148.50, 148.15, and 147.45

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 9, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY has tested important resistance at 131.60 again. The failure to break right through indicates a more complex wave ii correction is building in form of a flat correction. This mean a new rally to 131.15 should be expected shortly to complete wave c of ii and set the stage for the next downside pressure in wave iii.

Short-term a break above minor resistance at 132.26 will confirm the expected mini rally to 133.15.

R3: 133.15

R2: 132.84

R1: 132.26

Pivot: 131.60

S1: 131.00

S2: 130.56

S3: 130.05

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 132.59 and will move our stop lower to 132.30. If our stop is hit, we will sell EUR again at 133.10.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 09, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.6915. The pair is holding on the upside. The rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages maintain the bullish bias. The relative strength index is bullish, calling for another rise. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 0.6915.

Hence, as long as this key level is not broken, look for a further advance with targets at 0.6975 and 0.7000 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6975, 0.7000, and 0.7045

Support levels: 0.6890, 0.687, and 0.6835

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 09, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair has already tested the zone of 0.6963. The NZD/USD pair will probably continue to move upwards from the level of 0.6963. However, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6963 followed by 0.6981 and 0.7003, while the weekly support 1 is seen at 0.6889 (major support this week). According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.6963 and 0.7003. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out the second resistance level at 0.6963, we could see the pair climbing towards the resistance levels of 0.6981 and 0.7003 Therefore, buy above the level of 0.6963 with the first target at 0.6981 in order to test the daily resistance 2 and further to 0.7003. Also, it should be noted that the level of 0.7003 is a good place to take profit on the H1 chart. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.6933, a further decline to 0.6862 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 09, 2017

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Overview:

  • The trend of USD/CHF pair movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.9938 and 1.0037. Also, the daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 1.0037 and 0.9938 respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. So, we need to wait until the sideways channel has completed. Last month, the market moved from its bottom at 0.9938 and continued to rise towards the top of 1.0037. Today, in the one-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.0037, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.0037 (the level of 1.0037 coincides with the double top too). Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 1.0037 with the first target at 1.0037. If the trend breaks the support level of 1.0037, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level 0.9885 in order to test the daily support 2 (horizontal green line).
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 09, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as EU Economic Forecasts, ECB Economic Bulletin, and German Trade Balance. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, and Unemployment Claims, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1644.

Strong Resistance:1.1637.

Original Resistance: 1.1626.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1615.

Target Inner Area: 1.1588.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1561.

Original Support: 1.1550.

Strong Support: 1.1539.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1532.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Nov 09, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Economy Watchers Sentiment, 30-y Bond Auction, Current Account, Core Machinery Orders m/m, Bank Lending y/y, and BOJ Summary of Opinions data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, and Unemployment Claims. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 114.59.

Resistance. 2: 114.36.

Resistance. 1: 114.14.

Support. 1: 113.87.

Support. 2: 113.64.

Support. 3: 113.42.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD has formed a strong reversal, time to start selling

The price has dropped strongly since yesterday and has started to form a really strong reversal setup. We look to sell below major resistance at 1.3120 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to at least 1.3048 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

RSI (34) sees descending resistance and immediate resistance at 46% which is supporting our bearish view.

Sell below 1.3120. Stop loss is at 1.3178. Take profit is at 1.3048.

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NZD/USD right on major resistance, remain bearish

The price is now testing major resistance. We remain bearish looking to sell on strength below major resistance at 0.6968 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, bearish divergence) for a push down to at least 0.6827 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55,3,1) is seeing strong resistance below 96% and also sees bearish divergence vs the price signaling that a reversal is impending. It still has some good downside potential for price to drop further.

Sell below 0.6968. Stop loss is at 0.7043. Take profit is at 0.6827.

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How stable is the demand for the dollar?

The dollar began a neutral week, losing all the enthusiasm it had accumulated earlier. Part of this is due to the fact that all the main drivers that recently helped it have already been played back - the presentation of the new head of the Fed took place, the plan for tax reform was submitted to Congress, and the growth rates of the Fed rates at the last meeting were confirmed.

The Fed is moving to its goals faster than any other central bank. The pace of interest rate increase were quite fast, especially against the backdrop of weak inflation and the launch of the program for reducing the balance sheet, which could provoke a liquidity crisis. The demand for the dollar is steadily growing as a direct consequence of expectations on the rate of normalization of monetary policy.

The dynamics of the demand for the dollar is well monitored by CFTC reports. Speculative demand versus the 10 major currencies tracked by the stock exchange began to rise in mid-2016 and peaked on a wave of euphoria from Trump's victory by the end of December, followed by a prolonged fall. The lower point was reached at the end of August. Even the weaker than expected results of the Fed meeting in September could not prevent a turn in investor sentiment. At the moment, the demand for the dollar has been growing for several weeks and one can assume that the bottom is formed.

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Thus, we can note the growing interest in US assets. Investors proceeded from the fact that the US economy is the locomotive of the entire world economy and high rates of economic growth make assets more attractive. Low inflation? This phenomenon is temporary, according to the Fed's assurances. They expect the realization in practice of the key provision of modern economic theory, known as the "Phillips rule". According to this statement, inflation is always a consequence of the state of the labor market. With full employment, the US unemployment rate has reached a minimum of 4.1%, wage growth is growing at an accelerating rate. This ultimately leads to an increase in consumer demand and an increase in inflation. It is just a matter of waiting a little bit more.

Of course, this provision sounds pretty convincing, especially if we take into account that the FOMC management constantly recalls this rule during their discussions on monetary policy. However, we have to take a look at the situation from the other side.

On the graph below is the growth rate of the US GDP in comparison with the growth rate of consumer spending. Both indexes have been growing steadily since 1947, slowing down during periods of recessions. However, the rate of growth of expenditures over the entire time interval outpaces GDP growth.

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In other words, consumer growth in the US is based not on economic growth, but obviously, on growth in lending. US citizens provide faster growth of costs not because they have high rates of wages that can not grow faster than the economy as a whole, but because the growth rate of consumer lending is even higher.

Thus, the US economy, if it is considered in isolation from the whole world, is ineffective. Its growth does not correspond to the growth of consumption. How can we expect inflation to rise in such conditions, which in turn should be based on even higher consumption growth rates?

Deflation under current conditions is a completely natural process and even full employment is not able to significantly increase the purchasing power of the population. Strong GDP growth is required, at least 4-5% per year, in order to get a chance to turn the tide.

Is the tax reform promoted by the Republicans capable of providing such a result in conditions of tightening of the monetary policy of rate growth and hence, the growth of the cost of debt servicing? The answer to this question is completely unclear.

The demand for the dollar at the current stage is cautious and does not yet seem sustainable. In the absence of significant macroeconomic news, the dollar is able to strengthen its positions somewhat by the end of the week. Following the trend, however, it is impossible to count on stable outpacing growth

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Daily analysis of USDX for November 09, 2017

The index is still moving in sideways across the board, supported by the 200 SMA, according to our H1 chart's projection. The resistance zone of 95.14 is giving an offer to the price action, but if that level gets broken, then we might expect a leg higher to test the resistance zone of 95.85. MACD indicator remains in the neutral territory, showing the sideways situation in USDX.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.14 / 95.85

H1 chart's support levels: 94.60 / 93.97

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.14, take profit is at 95.85 and stop loss is at 94.47.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 09, 2017

The pair is facing a dynamic resistance in the 200 SMA at H1 chart and it's again on the way to test the support level of 1.3037, which adds strength to the bias proposed. If that zone gives up, then we might expect a leg lower towards the 1.2880 level, but if it manages to do a rebound then it can break the resistance area of 1.3201.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3201 / 1.3309

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3037 / 1.2880

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3037, take profit is at 1.2880 and stop loss is at 1.3193.

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BITCOIN Analysis for November 8, 2017

Bitcoin had a decent pullback towards the $6,910 support area and currently showing impulsive bullish pressure taking the price reside above $7,500 price level. Next week is expected to be quite volatile for Bitcoin which is likely to be one of the biggest events for the Cryptocurrency since its inception. The Bitcoin price is expected to be under pressure in the coming days despite the current bullish pressure which is expected to continue until price touches the $8,000 price resistance. The price was quite corrective this week having a deeper pullback since it broke above $6000 level. Currently, the price is expected to break above $7,500 level and proceed impulsively towards $8,000 price level by this week. As the price remains above $6,900-$7,000 price area with a daily close the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold recalled its old ties

The uncertainty surrounding the tax reform, the growth of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the visit of Donald Trump to Asia allowed the bulls in gold to restrain their opponents who are on the offensive. There were rumors in the market that the start of the transformation of the fiscal system in the US could be postponed for a year due to the fact that the US economy is in good shape. If you add an incentive to this, it will increase the risks of overshooting inflation and a future recession. Given its current position, there is no certainty that the reform will be passed through the Congress: Democrats criticize the bill because of the losses of the middle class, while the number of dissatisfied Republicans is increasing. In general, the revision of the tax system is seen as a "bullish" factor for gold. Therefore, the problems with its implementation allows buyers of the XAU/USD to strike a counterattack.

Investors have raised their share of haven assets in portfolios, looking at events in the Middle East. The mass arrests in Saudi Arabia, the attack on Riyadh by rebels from Yemen, the conflict between Turkey and Kurdistan, and the dissatisfaction of Donald Trump with decisions of his predecessors on Iran's nuclear program have pushed up oil and bond prices. The yield of the latter is under pressure, which, due to the existing correlation, has a positive effect on precious metals.

Dynamics of gold and yield of US bonds

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Source: Trading Economics.

An additional factor in supporting gold is U.S. President Donald Trump's tour in Asia. In Japan, Trump has already tickled the nerves of local businessmen, accusing them of non-commercial and non-mutually beneficial trade. In China, the US president raised the issue of ending its economic ties between Beijing and Pyongyang, which certainly provoked North Korea's discontent. Let me remind you that one of the most important drivers of almost 12% of the XAU/USD rally since the beginning of the year have been geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula and the US protectionist policy.

At the same time, from the point of view of macroeconomics, the precious metal's situation is not the best. While the euro area and Japan's GDP are growing above the trend, the US economy has been expanding by 3% or more for two consecutive quarters, and is also prepared to increase the rate. In the case of tax reform, investors prefer risky assets. Moreover, global inflation is characterized by sluggish growth. In this scenario, real world market rates have the prerequisites for a movement upwards, which should be considered as a "bearish" factor for XAU/USD.

In my opinion, the situation in the Middle East will soon stabilize, and the absence of conflicts with North Korea and the passage of tax reform through the Congress would raise the demand for the US dollar and return the quotes of precious metals futures for a downward short-term trend.

A technically successful test of the upper limit of the consolidation range at $1262-1281 per ounce will increase the risks of rising gold prices towards $1,299 and $1,320. On the other hand, a breakthrough of support at $1262 will allow the "bears" to count on the implementation of the targets for 161.8% and 200% for the AB=CD pattern.

Gold, daily chart

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