Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 15, 2017

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USD/JPY is under pressure. The pair is under pressure below the key resistance at 113.70. The declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

To conclude, as long as 113.30 is not surpassed, look for a further drop with targets at 112.50 and 112.30 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended above 113.30 with a target at 113.50.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 113.30, Take Profit: 112.50

Resistance levels: 113.50, 113.70 and 114.05 Support Levels: 112.50, 112.30, 112.00

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 15, 2017

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Our target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. USD/CHF is still under pressure and expected to continue downside movement. The pair is in a downtrend, capped by its falling 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index remains under pressure below its neutrality area at 50. Last but not least, the downside potential has been opened towards 0.9830 after the recent breakout of 0.9935 (the previous key support).

In these perspectives, as long as 0.9900 holds on the upside, look for a new pullback to 0.9830 and 0.9800 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9900, Take Profit: 0.9830

Resistance levels: 0.9935, 0.9970, and 0.9815

Support levels: 0.9830, 0.9800, and 0.9765

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 15, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair accelerated on the downside and broke below the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands, which confirmed the continuation of the bearish trend. The relative strength index broke down its oversold level of 30.

To sum up, as long as 149.10 holds on the upside, a further drop to 148.00 and even to 147.70 seems more likely to occur.

Therefore, as long as 148.95 holds on the upside, look for a new decline to 148.00 and even to 147.75 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 149.10 with the target at 149.60.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 149.10, Take Profit: 148

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 149.60, 150.00 and 150.50

Support levels: 148.00, 147.70, and 147.15

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 15, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook and expected to continue the upside movement. The pair has reversed up after yesterday's strong rebound on its key support at 0.6860. A bullish cross between the 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified. In addition, the relative strength index is also turning up, and calling for a further advance.

In conclusion, as long as 0.6860 is not broken, the pair is likely to advance to 0.6935 and 0.6955 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6935, 0.6955, and 0.6975

Support levels: 0.6840, 0.6820, and 0.6790

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BITCOIN Analysis for November 15, 2017

Bitcoin is currently hovering above $7,000 price level again after the drastic fall towards $5,500 support area recently. The cryptocurrency has again proved its strength by overcoming the external influences for the downturns and regaining the momentum to proceed higher. The Bitcoin recovery after the fall was remarkable as the gain was quite impulsive in comparison to the steady downturn after bouncing off the $7,800 price area. The price is currently quite higher than the dynamic levels and showing some bearish intervention already in the non-volatile impulsive bullish trend which is expected to show some correction towards $6,900-$7,000 price level before the price pushes up higher with a target towards $8,000 price area in the coming days. As the price remains above $6,900-$7,000 price area, the impulsive bullish pressure is expected to continue to push the price much higher in the future.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for November 15, 2017

EUR/GBP has been quite bullish recently after bouncing off the 0.8750 support area. The pair is expected to surge up higher in the coming days. EUR has been in a better position than GBP in light of economic reports from the eurozone along with favorable market sentiment. The recent rate hike by the Bnak of England did not quite help the currency to gain momentum. Today, French Final CPI report was published unchanged as expected at 0.1% and Trade Balance report was published with a higher figure of 25.0B from the previous figure of 21.0B which was expected to have a slight increase to 21.2B. On the GBP side, today the Average Cash Earning Index was published with a better than expected value at 2.2%, down from the previous value of 2.3%, the Claimant Count report which is the Unemployment Claims report of the UK, showed a better result at 1.1k decreasing from the 2.6k which was expected to be at 2.0k, and the Unemployment Rate report was published unchanged as expected at 4.3%. Additionally, MPC member Broadbent speech is expected to be quite neutral for the upcoming interest rate decisions and future monetary policy. As of the current scenario, EUR and GBP are currently residing in an unclear structure of the market where any currency with better economic reports and results will lead the way in the coming days. As of the current scenario, GBP still did not quite amaze us with gains after the rate hike and several recent positive economic reports which are expected to be absorbing sufficient power to put pressure on EUR in the coming days. Though the current situation of the pair is indecisive, GBP is expected to have an upper hand over EUR pushing the price lower in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing at the edge of the resistance area of 0.90 which is expected to push the price lower with a target towards 0.8750 in the coming days. The resistance area of 0.90 has been quite strong earlier that led to several bearish momentum. If the price rejects off the level with a daily close today, then we will be looking forward for strong selling pressure in the nearest days. As the price remains below 0.90 resistance area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Global macro overview for 15/11/2017

Charles Evans, a dovish Chicago Fed official, said in his interview with CNBC television that the yield curve of US debt remains relatively smooth. In his view, FOMC members should pay attention to the dual purpose set in advance, albeit further highlighting the key drivers of consumer price dynamics. Evans allowed inflation to hit 2.0% and an increase in the deviation of the unemployment rate from the NAIRU level by descending below 4.0%. In his opinion, the observed trends in potential output should draw the attention of other members who have time to revise their adopted monetary policy framework.

Looking through the short-term economic factors, it is pretty difficult to find a composite measure of US prices that has on average seen 2.0% annual inflation since the 2007-2008 crisis. In fact, former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has recently noted that the level of core PCE – the central bank's other preferred inflation measure – remains 4.5% lower than where it would have been had the Fed been successful in meeting its 2.0% target. It's, therefore, no surprise to see current FOMC members like Williams and Evans talking about potential price-level targeting in the future.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The dollar remains relatively insensitive to his statement as the vertical rally at this pair continues higher. Currently, the price is trading just below the technical resistance at the level of 1.1862 and momentum indicator points to the north despite the overbought trading conditions. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.1805.

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Global macro overview for 15/11/2017

Seventh in terms of population Eurozone country released a GDP growth of 8.8% in the third quarter of 2017 (8.6% in the non-adjusted season). This is a surprising result for economists as the market consensus was up by "only" 5.8%, which was a slight slowdown compared to 6.1% in the second quarter. In terms of quarterly growth, Romanian economic growth was 2.6% (seasonally adjusted data) vs. 2.0% in the first two quarters of the year. Data for the first two quarters have been revised from 1.8% (first quarter) and 1.7% (second quarter). The result above 8.8% indicates the fastest growing Romanian economy since the beginning of the crisis in 2008. Before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the country recorded well over 10.0% annual growth.

The report contains only preliminary calculations, without the breakdown of individual components (such as consumption, investment). Final figures on the economy of Romania in the third quarter will be announced on 5 December.

The annual GDP growth of over 8.0% puts Romania at the absolute top of the world. Many countries still have not reported data for the third quarter, and among those who have already done so, the highest growth was reported by Vietnam (7.5%). By comparison, in China, GDP growth in the third quarter was "just" 6.8%.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to break out above the local technical resistance at the level of 133.50, but no new high was made yet. The price is currently testing the resistance (now support) from above and if this level is not clearly violated, the bulls will eye the next technical resistance at the level of 134.40. This level had been tested twice already, so the bull camp will have to try hard to break out above it and then sustain the breakout.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for November 15, 2017

USD/CAD has been quite bearish and corrective recently due to positive economic reports of CAD supporting the gains of the currency against USD in the existing bullish trend. USD has been the dominant currency in the pair since September despite the Rate Hike in CAD from 0.75% to 1.0%. Currently, the market sentiment is looking forward to the USD Rate Hike in December which is expected to empower the currency to gain further against CAD in the future. Today USD CPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.5%, Core CPI report is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%, Core Retail Sales is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 1.0%, Retail Sales report is expected to decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 1.6%, Empire State Manufacturing Index is also expected to decrease to 25.5 from the previous figure of 30.2 and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to show negative result of -2.1M from the previous positive figure of 2.2M. On the CAD side, today we do not have any upcoming economic event or report to have an impact on the market momentum, but tomorrow CAD Foreign Securities purchases report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 10.68B from the previous figure of 9.85B and Manufacturing Sales report is expected to be negative at -0.4% from the previous value of 1.6%. To sum up, both USD and CAD economic reports are forecasted to be mixed in nature whereas the market sentiment is currently leaning towards the USD side as the Rate Hike in December is quite imminent. If the economic reports of USD result better than expected then further bullish pressure with a higher target is expected in this pair against CAD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has reacted to the bearish divergence recently which lead to the recent bearish pressure in the pair whereas the price is currently struggling to break above 1.2750-1.2800 resistance area which has been confluence with the 200 EMA as well. As the price remains below 1.2750-1.2800 resistance area with a daily close the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 15, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $7.121. Just recently the notorious former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan gave his opinion concerning the rise of bitcoin in 2017. The 91-year old Greenspan explains that he believes the decentralized currency is very much like the world's unbacked fiat currencies. Technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 4H time frame, I found broken supply trendline in the background, which is sign that selling looks risky. The price filed the gap in the background, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $7.878

Support/Resistance

$6.471 – Intraday support

$7.878 – Major resistance

$5.636 – Major support

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for November 15, 2017

EUR/JPY is still residing inside the corrective range of 131.40 to 134.40 area which is currently expected to break on the upside in the coming days as per the formed structure. Recently EUR has been quite positive with the economic reports and events with hawkish results which helped the currency to gain momentum in the market which is expected to continue further in the coming days. Today, EUR French Final CPI report was published unchanged as expected at 0.1% and Trade Balance report showed significant growth to 25.0B from the previous figure of 21.0B which was expected to be at 21.2B. On the other hand, JPY had been quite mixed with the economic reports today which did not quite help the currency to put pressure against the recently impulsive EUR gains. Today, JPY Prelim GDP report was published with decreased value at 0.3% from the previous value of 0.6% which was expected to be at 0.4%, Prelim GDP Index report was published as expected at 0.1% which previously was negative at -0.4% and Revised Industrial Production report was published with less deficit at -1.0% which was expected to be unchanged at -1.1%. As of the current scenario, EUR has not been quite impulsive till now with positive economic reports published today whereas JPY could not quite dominate either but was quite successful to hold the EUR gains to certain extent. In the coming days, it is expected that EUR will gain further over JPY based on long-term growth policies discussed in the ECB events, which will lead to steady gains for the currency in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing above the support level of 131.40and dynamic level of 20 EMA as well. The trend has been bullish since April 2017 which is expected to continue further in the coming days after the price breaks above the 134.40 resistance area. As the price remains above 131.40 support area the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Analysis of Gold for November 15, 2017

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Recently, the Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,285.00. According to the 15M time – frame, I found that price is trading above the pivot level ($1,277.94), which is sign that selling looks risky. I also found broken yesterday's high at the price of $1,283.50, which is another sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunties. Upward targets are set at the price of $1,291.10 (pivot resistance 1) and at the price of $1,298.90 (pivot resistance 2).

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,285.85

R2: $1,291.50

R3: $1,298.95

Support levels:

S1: $1,272.24

S2: $1,264.34

S3: $1,258.65

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for November 15, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3213. According to the 15M time – frame, I found rejection from the pivot level of 1.3141, which is a sign that selling looks risky. There is also an oversold condition on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunties. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3210 (pivot resistance 1) and at the price of 1.3255 (pivot resistance 2).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3211

R2: 1.3255

R3: 1.3325

Support levels:

S1: 1.3095

S2: 1.3025

S3: 1.2980

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 15, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair went upwards significantly yesterday – just as it was forecasted. Price has gained about 180 pips this week, and it is now above the support line at 1.1800, now targeting the resistance line at 1.1850. Price would still move upwards by at least, another 100 pips this week, but there could be temporary pauses or pullbacks along the way.

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USD/CHF: There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on USD/CHF. Price has gone downwards by about 100 pips this week (as the bullish EUR/USD caused some selling pressure on USD/CHF). The market is now below the resistance level at 0.9900, and it may reach the support level at 0.9850 soon.

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GBP/USD: There has not been any vivid changes on the Cable. A directional bias is expected this week, when price either goes above the distribution territory at 1.3300, or it goes below the accumulation territory at 1.3050 (either of these would require a strong buying or selling pressure).

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument traded lower on Tuesday. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. Further bearish movement is anticipated, for bears would target the demand levels at 112.50 and 112.00. The supply level at 113.50 ought to contain any possible rallies that would want to jeopardize the current bearish bias.

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EUR/JPY: The bullish bias on the EUR/JPY cross has become stronger owing to the bullish run that was witnessed yesterday. The price action remains bullish, while there is a temporary pullback along the way. The pullback would soon bring a great opportunity to go long at a better price, as another 150 pips would be gained before the end of this week.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 15, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

If the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback can be expected towards 0.7050 if the current bullish pullback persists above 0.6970 ( Intraday Key-level ).

Trade recommendations:

If the current bullish pullback persists towards 0.7050, a valid SELL entry can be offered around there.

S/L should be placed above 0.7100. T/P levels to be placed at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6830.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 15, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Trade Recommendations

Recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This scenario remains valid as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.

On the other hand, the current price levels around 1.1850 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 15, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is moving around the spot of 0.6891 (daily pivot point). It should be noted that the resistance is established at the level of 0.6891 which represents a pivot point.
  • The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of force following a breakout of the highest price of 0.6860. The price has been in a bearish channel this week. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market.
  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.6891. As long as the trend is above the price of 0.6891, the market is still in an uptrend. The trend is still strong below the moving average.
  • The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements in the last two days. The market is indicating a bearish opportunity above the mentioned resistance levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA heads for the downside.
  • Therefore, strong resistance will be found around the spot of 0.6891 providing a clear signal to sell with a target seen at 0.6821. If the trend breaks the first support at 0.6821, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level of 0.6740 in order to test the daily support 2.
  • The major support is seen at the levels of 0.6821 and 0.6740. However, the stop loss should be set at the price of 0.6891.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 15, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair faces resistance at 0.9910, while strong resistance is seen at 0.9966. Support levels are found at the 0.9870 and 0.9782 levels. Today, the USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from 0.9910 level. The pair could fall from 0.9910 level to the first support around 0.9870. In consequence, if the USD/CHF pair will break support at 0.9870, this level will turn into resistance today. In the H4 time frame, the 0.9910 level is expected to act as minor resistance. Hence, we expect the USD/CHF pair to continue moving in the bearish trend from 0.9910 level towards the target at 0.9870. In the long term, if the pair succeeds in passing through 0.9870 level , the market will indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.9870 level in order to reach the second target at 0.9782. However, the 0.9782 mark remains a significant support zone. Thus, the trend will probably rebound again from 0.9782 level as long as this level is not breached. in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario above the area of 0.9782.
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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for November 15, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has rallied before printing a low below 1.1550 levels recently. It is now facing the 50% fibonacci resistance of the entire drop between 1.2090 through 1.1550 levels respectively. Still at least two probable wave counts are coming up. If the entire drop between 1.2092 and 1.1550 levels should be considered as a leading diagonal, then the recent rally should prove to be corrective and find resistance soon to reverse lower again. On the other hand, if we consider the drop as A-B-C, which is not labelled here, then EUR/USD is heading north towards fresh highs. Probabilities will increase towards the latter wave count if the pair continues to trade in the buy zone. Resistance should be very strong around the 1.1870/85 levels where fibonacci 0.618 of the earlier drop is passing through.

Trading plan:

Please look to sell at least 50% around 1.1870/85 levels, stop above 1.2092 and target open.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index has also dropped before printing fresh highs at 95.30/50 levels and it is seen to be trading around 93.50/60 levels for now. The US Dollar Index is either producing wave 4 of the same degree or probably wave (2) of one higher degree as labelled here. In either case, a push higher is suggested from current levels. Please note that the index is seen to be trading very close to the fibonacci 0.382 support levels of the entire rally between 91.00 and 95.10 levels earlier. Furthermore, please note that the pair would find strong support around 92.80/93.00 levels, which is fibonacci 0.618 support of the earlier rally mentioned above. A high probable trade setup should be a bullish reversal around 93.00 levels going forward.

Trading plan:

Please look to go long again around 93.00/93.50 levels (at least 50% capacity), stop below 91.00, targeting 98.00 and higher.

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for USD Consumer Price Index at 08:30 AM EST today.

Good luck!

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The growth of the euro will be short-lived

Producer prices rose 0.4% in October. The growth is similar to the September index and exceeded the forecasts of experts expecting an increase of + 0.2%. On an annual basis, growth was at 2.8% vs. 2.6% in September. This is the highest level since 2012.

A confident recovery in production prices shows the potential for growth in consumer inflation, which will affect the demand for the dollar in the near future.

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Today, reports on consumer prices and retail sales will be published. Forecasts are more than cautious with sales being expected with zero dynamics relative to September. Inflation is expected to have - 0.1% growth versus 0.5% in October. Judging by the prices of the manufacturing sector, there may be a surprise in the direction of exceeding expectations, which, in turn, may well lead to pronounced dollar purchases.

The sharp increase in demand for defensive assets, primarily on the yen and the euro, is most likely short-term and is caused by a number of speculative factors. The immediate cause was the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) who said that crude oil inventories rose by 6.51 million barrels in the reporting week. This is a record high in 9 months. Earlier, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a decline in world oil demand in the coming months due to a warmer than previously expected weather according to its monthly report. These, as well as some other factors, such as preparations for the imposition of sanctions against Venezuela by the EU, led to the long-awaited fixation of profits in the oil market, which in turn, brought down commodity currencies.

At the same time, bare numbers indicate that the dollar remains the favorite across the entire spectrum of the market. Published on Monday, the CFTC report showed that investors are betting on its strengthening in the next few months. The analysis of the dynamics of yields of government bonds of the USA and eurozone countries, in particular Germany, in the last 2 months leads to a similar conclusion. If before September, the yield of 10-year bonds fluctuated almost synchronously, meaning that the spread between US and German bonds remained fairly stable, recently, there has been a clear trend for spread growth,which will inevitably create pressure on the euro in the near future.analytics5a0bf0435a8dc.png

As for the growth of the US economy, the expectations are quite positive. On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia published another quarterly review compiled by professional forecasters. In their view, US GDP in the 4th quarter will grow by 2.6%. This is better than the previous forecast of 2.3% which was revised upward along with the forecast for Q1 2018. Unemployment per 1 sq. km. for 2018 is expected at 4.1%, which again, is better than 4.2% compared to a quarter earlier. The pace of creation of new jobs has been significantly revised upwards.

Thus, the expectations are quite positive. Investors' fears, in essence, boil down to one question: will the rate increase in the US and the Fed's reduction in the balance of risk heighten as deteriorating financial conditions naturally occur during the growth phase of the economy? However, this could lead to a recession if growth is insufficient. Obviously, a skillful manipulation of expectations can change the mood of investors who do not see the risks for the dollar in the near future. The stress indices calculated by a number of regional offices of the Federal Reserve indicate a low level of fear. In particular, the Financial Stress Index from the Kansas Federal Reserve Bank is at a three-year low. A similar figure can be seen from the St. Louis Federal Reserve in the zone of historic lows indicating a tendency to decline.

The dollar is slowly but surely returning to its own initiative and as the FOMC meeting dates approach, the dollar index will grow. Rollback against the defensive currencies on Tuesday will be used by players to enter the market with more profitable levels.

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Bitcoin analysis for 15/11/2017

Tim Draper, a technical investor who has helped create companies such as Skype, Tesla and Twitter, has a reason to praise Bitcoin because its $ 20 million digital currency investment has grown by over 1,000 percent in just three years. Draper predicts that in five years the fiat currency will be so outdated that it will be ridiculous. He first got involved in Bitcoin after he bought 30,000 units in the government auction of assets confiscated from Silk Road in 2014. While Draper may now be on the defensive after his ICO - Tezos - entangled in the scandal leading to a class action lawsuit, he is still very optimistic about the future of the father of all digital currencies. Draper told Forbes magazine: "In five years, if you try to use fiduciary currency, they will laugh at you. Bitcoin and other cryptanalysts will be so important ... there will be no reason to have a fiat currency."

Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market have recently reached over $ 200 billion, and Wall Street has refueled the fire, announcing trading in Bitcoin futures. However, this is paltry in comparison with the trillions of dollars in the global supply of fiat money. However, the fact that Bitcoin gained more than 600% this year is enough reason to believe that it is on a wave of fluctuations towards the fictitious market. Draper explains what the constraints are, which really begin to harass the progressive and thinking global population. Crossing the border for any currency is never a pleasant or easy task. Nigeria's Naira falls by 30% when you cross the state line. Outside of Argentina the Peso in this country is almost worthless currency, and there are other countries where the situation looks very similar. In Zimbabwe and Venezuela currencies either disappear completely, or are on the verge of total collapse. Bitcoin knows what needs to be done to raise it.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has broken out above the 50% Fibo and now is trying to test the 61% Fibo at the level of $6,980. This level is almost in line with the key resistance level at $6,983, so both of them are creating a strong reversal zone. Moreover, the market conditions are close to becoming overbought, so the top of the wave 2 or B might be established soon around this levels.

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Elliott wave analysis of USDX for November 15, 2017

There are a lot of chances that the Dollar index has more upside if the current decline is wave A or wave 2. Today we are going to talk about this scenario and when it gets canceled. However our primary scenario remains the one where the entire upward corrective wave has been completed and we have already started the final leg down towards 88.

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Blue line - support trend line

Red line - projection

The Dollar index has broken the trend line support and is heading towards cloud support at 93. This is also the area of the previous lesser degree fourth wave and high probability target for the pull back to end. Resistance is at 94.35. The downward move could very well be wave B or 2. A wave C or 3 should follow if this scenario is valid.

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As we noted in previous posts, price was getting rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The entire correction could be over and we could already have started the final leg down. If however the correction is not over yet or even if the Dollar index has bottomed in September, there is a good chance this decline finds support soon and reverses upwards for a move towards 96-97. This is a valid scenario and we should keep as a very probable alternative.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 15/11/2017

Risk aversion continues to increase. Particularly clear is the pressure on commodity markets. In addition, there is a lot of doubt about the reform of the US tax system. EUR/USD after yesterday 1.0% shot to 1.18 remains close to this barrier. USD / JPY is heading towards 112.94, which cannot be surprising, as the Asian markets drops. Indices in Shanghai and Hong Kong are down more than 0.5%. On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Nikkei 225 drops more than 1.5%. The currency of Antipodes remains weak.

On Wednesday 15th of November, the event calendar is busy with important data release. During the London session, France will provide Consumer Price Index data, The UK will post Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings Index data and the Eurozone will post Trade Balance data. Later on, the US will release Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Index data.

GBP/USD analysis for 15/11/2017:

The Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings Index data are scheduled for release at 09:30 am GMT. The market participants expect an increase in those individuals who are out of work and who are claiming some sort of unemployment benefit from 1.7k to 2.0k, but the unemployment rate should remain steady at the level of 4.3%. The wages are expected to decrease slightly from 2.2% to 2.1% on a quarterly basis. The recent interest rate hike by Bank of England was conditional, so, in order to revive the second BoE rate hike possibility, the wages must grow more substantially. The other reason for higher wages is UK rate curve steepening (assuming a smooth Brexit). Nevertheless, yesterday's CPI data disappointed the market participants, so the situation is already worsening for BoE.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market remains directionless as the price is still stuck in a horizontal zone between the levels of 1.3025 - 1.3321. Only a deliberate impulsive violation of one of this levels will show the direction of the future movement. The momentum oscillator is as well hovering around its fifty level.

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Market Snapshot: Gold bounces from channel support

The price of Gold had bounced from the channel support around the level of $1,270 as the risk aversion increases. Nevertheless, no new high or low was made so far, so the market remains locked in a channel between the levels of $1,290 - $1, 270. The key level to the upside remains at the level of $1,305 and the key level to the downside at $1,260.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY breaks out below support

The price of USD/JPY has broken out below the technical support at the level of 112.94 after a fake black trend line violation. The momentum turned sharply to the downside and the next technical support is seen at the level of 112.27. No signs of any divergence yet.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for November 15, 2017

Gold price continues to trade above the 4 hour Ichimoku cloud. Trend is bullish in Ichimoku terms, but price is mainly moving sideways and has not yet convincingly broken above the critical short-term resistance.

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Blue lines - sideways channel

Short-term support is at $1,278 and resistance at $1,288. Price is trading above the 4 hour Kumo but there is no clear trend in pure price terms. The entire movement since late October is not impulsive and I believe that there are a lot of chances we see another strong leg downwards.

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On a daily basis Gold price is trading between the kijun- and tenkan-sen. The daily chart portrays the sideways move we mentioned above very clearly as price is trapped between the two indicators. Bulls need to be very cautious as price remains below the Kumo. A break below yesterday's low at $1,269 will open the way for a move towards $1,250. A break above $1,310 will open the way for a move to $1,400

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Last minute burning forecast 15.11.2017

Last minute burning forecast 15.11.2017

EURUSD: Buy on the rollback. Lock in profits.

The euro showed strong growth during the speeches of the heads of the Central Bank at the ECB conference. There was a general decline in the dollar - against the franc and the yen, except for the euro. The pound appeared the weakest.

It is advised to lock in buying profits from 1.1625 and 1.1690 (see previous forecasts) - at the moment (the current EURUSD rate is at 1.1793).

We are waiting for a significant rollback from the strong resistance of 1.1840 or earlier.

Perhaps, a strong move could occur today at 12:30 London time - news on inflation in the US.

Buy from the kickbacks: Buy the euro from 1.1740 and from 1.1700.

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Trading plan 11/15/2017

Trading plan 11/15/2017

The general picture: The speeches of the heads of the Central Bank at the ECB conference caused a decline in the dollar.

Experts have not yet analyzed the essence of the statements of the heads of the largest Central Banks on Tuesday at the ECB conference - the heads of the ECB, U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England.

However, the market determined: A decline in the dollar rate - and this is important.

The EURUSD pair showed strong growth.

It is advised to lock in profits for the euro at the moment - as one should recall, it is recommended to buy from 1.1625 and from 1.1690 - the current rate of 1.1790. A strong correction is possible up to 1.1740 - 1.1700.

For the GBPUSD pair:

Buy for a breakthrough at 1.3230.

Sell for the breakthrough at 1.3020.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 15, 2017

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Wave summary:

The rally here is clearly a wave iii of (iii) of 3 rally. It's strong with almost no time for corrections.

We are still looking for more upside towards 1.7770 as the next target on the way higher to 1.8430 longer term. Support is now seen at 1.7114 and again at 1.7049. The later is expected to be able to protect the downside for the next push higher.

R3: 1.7273

R2: 1.7216

R1: 1.7174

Pivot: 1.7114

S1: 1.7085

S2: 1.7068

S3: 1.7049

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6770 and will move our stop higher to 1.6900.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 15, 2017

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Wave summary:

We have seen the expected run higher. This run even exceeded the expected target at 133.15 and has likely peaked at 133.89 for a new impulsive decline towards 128.36 on the way lower to ideal target for wave (E) at 123.43.

Short-term a break below minor support at 132.60 will be the first strong indication that wave ii has completed, while a break below support at 131.88 will confirm this is the case and wave iii lower to 128.36 is developing.

R3: 134.50

R2: 134.13

R1: 133.89

Pivot: 133.16

S1: 132.60

S2: 131.88

S3: 131.36

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 133.10 with stop placed at 134.55.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 15, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German 10-y Bond Auction, Trade Balance, and French Final CPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Crude Oil Inventories, Business Inventories m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1848.

Strong Resistance:1.1841.

Original Resistance: 1.1819.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1697.

Target Inner Area: 1.1791.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1763.

Original Support: 1.1752.

Strong Support: 1.1741.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1734.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Nov 15, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Revised Industrial Production m/m, Prelim GDP Price Index y/y, and Prelim GDP q/q data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Crude Oil Inventories, Business Inventories m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.90.

Resistance. 2: 113.68.

Resistance. 1: 113.46.

Support. 1: 113.18.

Support. 2: 112.96.

Support. 3: 112.74.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/JPY continues to test major support, remain bullish

The price continues to whipsaw and continues to be testing our major support level at 86.58 (Fibonacci extension, long-term Fibonacci retracement, fake horizontal breakout). We look to buy above this level for a corrective bounce to at least 87.21 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, bullish divergence).

Stochastic (89,3,1) is seeing strong support above 1.2% and also sees bullish divergence vs price signaling that a bounce is impending.

Buy above 86.58. Stop loss is at 86.26. Take profit is at 87.21.

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USD/CHF key support broken, confirming strong reversal

The price has broken a key support level triggering a head and shoulders reversal. We look to sell below 0.9925 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, pullback resistance) for a strong push down to at least 0.9826 support (head and shoulders exit potential, pullback support, Fibonacci extension).

RSI (89) is under a lot of pressure.

Sell below 0.9925. Stop loss is at 0.9991. Take profit is at 0.9826.

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Daily analysis of USDX for November 15, 2017

The index is extending the decline across the board and it looks like we can see further losses in coming days, as the greenback remains under pressure below the 200 SMA. The nearest support is located at 93.97 and one could expect a break below there in order to reach the 93.55 level. MACD indicator remains in favor of the bears.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.60 / 95.14

H1 chart's support levels: 93.97 / 93.55

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.14, take profit is at 95.85 and stop loss is at 94.47.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 15, 2017

The pair hasn't made any significative changes in its current structure and remains consolidated below the 200 SMA at H1 chart. The next support lies at 1.3037, at which the bears are trying to gather enough momentum in order to continue with the downside, towards the 1.2880 level. MACD indicator is in the neutral territory, calling for sideways moves.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3201 / 1.3309

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3037 / 1.2880

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3037, take profit is at 1.2880 and stop loss is at 1.3193.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 15, 2017

The strength in EUR has pushed the EURJPY to new short-term highs after successfully testing and respecting support at 131.50-131.30 area. The long-term technical and cloud support were held, the price is bouncing strongly now in an upward move that could provide new highs towards 135.

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Red line - long-term support

The EURJPY has been mainly moving sideways for the last two months between 134.60 and 131.40. This is the 4th time price has reached the red trend line support and bounced strongly. This time might be different and we might not see a rejection at the 134.60 level. Price movement looks impulsive. Key support for bulls is at 131.80-132.30. Breaking into this area will increase the chances of breaking below 131.40.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Red line - horizontal support trend line

On a daily basis, we see EURJPY having broken out and below the bullish channel. Price was making new highs but the RSI was diverging. This does not cancel the scenario for a new higher high towards 135 before a bigger scale reversal. However, if the price back tests the resistance of the broken channel at 134.30 and gets rejected, we could then see an ugly downward reversal. Long-term view keeps a close eye on 131.60-131.40 trend line and cloud support. Breaking it will push price towards 127 at least.

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Brent needs a halt

After the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the confidence of investors in the extension of the OPEC agreement at the Vienna meeting on November 30, which caused oil prices their peak level in the last 2.5 years, the market was at a deadlock. Many "bullish" factors are already taken into account in the futures quotes, while the revived growth of the number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes (+9 to 738 by the week-end results by November 10) strengthens the risks of increased activity of American producers. They managed to increase production to a record 9.62 million b/d ( a 14% increase from mid-2016), even as the drilling process slows down and prices are lower than current ones. Confident consolidation of the Brent above $60 per barrel unleashes companies from the US hands, which in turn lays the foundation for the development of correction.

According to the International Energy Agency, shale production in the U.S. by 2025 will generate up to 80% of the increase in the global indicator. States who are the largest importer of oil will turn into an exporter, radically changing the situation of the entire market. Will OPEC be able to cope up with this? Given this, a regular extension of the Vienna agreement is necessary, which so far is working, although not without issues. If the cartel cut production in October to 32.59 million b/d (-0.46% m/m), then Russia for 10 months of 2017 produced 2% more than in the same period last year. Moscow was most vocal about the need to extend the validity of the Vienna agreement, however, it does not fulfill its obligations!

At the same time, Saudi Arabia notes that in less than one year global oil reserves have decreased by 180 million barrels and currently exceed their five-year averages by 154 million barrels. Riyadh calls 2018 the year of the restoration of the oil market, but it seems that it is the only country working on it, while all the others use the price increase for their own interests. OPEC predicts that in 2017 and in 2018 global demand will increase by 1.53 million and by 1.51 million b/p, which will help to balance the market. However, it is necessary to understand that there is also an offer.

In my opinion, the lack of new drivers reinforces the risks of Brent pulling back from current levels. Especially since the net position on the North Sea grade at ICE Futures Europe has once again notched a record high. By the results of the week by November 7, they exceeded 543, 000 contracts, marking an increase of 2.4%.

Dynamics of Brent and speculative positions

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Source: Bloomberg.

Fitch Ratings argues that the price increase above $ 60 per barrel can not be sustained. In 2018, the value of oil will be the same as in the current year. While the average price of Brent in 2017 is $54.5 per barrel.

Technically, the North Sea grade rollback after reaching the target by 200% on the child pattern AB = CD looks natural. To continue the rally in the direction of $ 66.95 (161.8% for the maternal pattern AB = CD), the November high needs to be updated. The nearest support levels are located near the $62.3 and $60.75 marks.

Brent, daily chart

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Bitcoin analysis for November 15, 2017

Bitcoin is in a bearish short-term trend as the price is trading below the 4-hour Kumo (cloud) resistance at 7,180-7,200. As long as the price is below that level, we should expect selling pressures.

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Bitcoin is trading above the short-term support of the kijun- and tenkan-sen indicators at 6,300, but also below the 4-hour Kumo. The price has stopped at the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the top. The decline looks somewhat impulsive and this implies that at least one more downward leg should be expected. Confirmation will come with the break below 6,300.

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On a daily basis, the pullback by Bitcoin price has held both horizontal and above cloud support. The price is now testing the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators, which are now resistance at 6,500-6,700. Breaking above this resistance will increase the chances for a new higher high above 7,900.

The longer-term trend remains bullish as long as the price is above 5,400.

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