Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 25, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) has identified a sharp increase in investment fraud during the coronavirus pandemic and highlighted cryptocurrency fraud as a particular problem.

According to the published ASIC announcement, between March and May 2020, all types of investment frauds were reportedly increased by 20% compared to the same period in 2019.

Criminals seem to be trying to take advantage of the economic uncertainty many citizens face during the crisis. ASIC Executive Director for Evaluation and Intelligence, Warren Day, warned that scammers "use age-old tactics in new and sophisticated ways."

"ASIC is particularly concerned about the risk of losing funds by consumers and investors when purchasing fake cryptographic assets. Most of the options for investing in crypto assets reported to ASIC seem like a scam and there is no real underlying investment," he added.

Although fraud reports have provided "supervisory information" to the supervisory authority, the announcement warns readers that it is difficult to catch fraudsters - especially those who operate abroad. For this reason, consumers and investors may not be able to recover lost funds. However, ASIC encourages victims to report financial and investment fraud. Typical features of suspicious programs include a number of investment offers presented that sound 'safer than they are,' requests to withdraw money from individuals or companies using multiple or ever-changing bank accounts, or false confirmations from celebrities or public agencies, including ASIC .

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair is trading below the short-term trend line support seen at the level of $230. Moreover, any sustained violation of the nearest technical support located at the level of $225.84 might accelerate the drop towards the next support seen at the level of $217.42. This is the key short-term technical support for bulls, so it might be well defended and some kind of a price bounce should be expected if the price hit this level.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $257.09

WR2 - $246.02

WR1 - $2437.53

Weekly Pivot - $227.45

WS1 - $218.65

WS2 - $207.59

WS3 - $198.98

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 06/25/2020

Investors and all kinds of stock traders are extremely greedy creatures. On a daily basis, they must satisfy their hunger by absorbing information. Be it some kind of macroeconomic statistics or wise and thoughtful decisions and statements by various politicians. And only, having enjoyed the taste of these dishes, they are able to make a decision about the direction in which stock quotes will move today. However, when they are unable to satisfy their hunger, simply because nothing happens, a technical analysis comes to rescue, which allows investors to achieve the same state of catharsis. That is exactly what happened yesterday. One glance at the charts is enough to understand that it could not do without technical analysis. For two days in a row, the dollar was only concerned with losing its position. But yesterday was a day of forced information, therefore, hunger strikes or so called fasting day, since it is necessary to keep yourself in shape. And in the end, the dollar is incredibly elegant and literally according to all the laws of technology played almost exactly half of the losses of the first two days of the week. Beauty, that's all.

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Today, market participants are offered a real feast of the most exquisite delicacies. The highlight of the program is the first quarter GDP data of the United States. However, do not think that investors are waiting for some kind of emotional explosion. After all, they have tasted this dish three times already. But these were only samples of some small pieces. Today, the dish will be presented in all its glory. And its taste may differ slightly, since if the preliminary estimate showed a decline in GDP of 4.8%, the final data will show a decline of 5.0%. Of course, there are some differences, but they are insignificant, so it is unlikely that these differences will encourage investors to sell off the dollar. But other dishes may well make them actively buy portraits of dead American presidents. Now, orders for durable goods look the most attractive and most interesting. After all, if the previous two innings of this delicacy were clearly unsuccessful due to the spoilage of products, today, a real firework of delight is expected. For example, in March, orders declined by 16.6%, and by another 17.2% in April. So in May, these same orders should grow as much as 8.5%. You must admit that such a striking contrast of taste sensations can even drive you crazy. Moreover, this taste promises a fantastic improvement in the quality of such main dishes as retail sales and industrial production. But it's also Thursday, which means it's fish day. However, over the past few months, it is customary to serve only rotten fish, today it can be slightly better salted, and the feed should improve a little. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits should be reduced from 1,508 thousand to 1,380 thousand. The number of repeated requests may decrease from 20 544 thousand to 20 100 thousand. So, there are dishes on the menu today that will make investors love the portraits of dead American presidents.

Durable Goods Orders (United States):

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The euro/dollar currency pair managed to switch to the recovery process, during which the majority of the correctional movement was won back. It can be assumed that the downward trend will remain in the market, which will ultimately lead to a return to the values of 1.1200-1.1180.

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The pound/dollar currency pair managed to rebound from the range of 1.2500-1.2540, recovering about half relative to the correctional move from the level of 1.2350. It can be assumed that if the price consolidates below the level of 1.2400, a downward movement will bring the quote to a support level of 1.2350.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 25, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The Bitcoin.com forum, one of the most popular cryptographic forums, has suddenly announced the closure.

The bitcoin.com forum, a place of lively debates and thoughtful discussions related to cryptocurrencies, will end services on July 23, 2020. The message was reported by the forum administrator in a thread published on June 24.

In the post, the forum administrator gave some details about the upcoming closure. No reasons were given.

The Bitcoin.com forum is linked to the Bitcoin.com website - one of the oldest and largest cryptocurrency websites in the world. The site, supported by Bitcoin's early supporter and investor, Roger Vera, offers a number of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash services, including cryptocurrency exchanges.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a Pin Bar candlestick patter after the rally has hit the key technical resistance seen at the level of $9,704 and after a short period of trading inside of a narrow local zone located between the levels of $9,530 - $9,650 the price turned sharply down towards the level of $9,249 (broken already). This might be an early indication that the rally is over and bears are trying to regain the control over the market. Please keep an eye on the key short-term technical support located at the level of $8,858 as any violation of this level might accelerate the drop towards the level of $8,565. The key technical support is located at the level of $8,8858. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,274

WR2 - $9,895

WR1 - $9,583

Weekly Pivot - $9,212

WS1 - $8,912

WS2 - $8,511

WS3 - $8,252

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 25, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has broken through the technical support located at the level of 1.2485 and made a local low at the level of 1.2406. It looks like the rally to the north was corrective in nature and the break out from the channel zone was false. Please notice, that to break out from the short-term descending channel zone, the bull would have to violated the level of 1.2580, which is the key short-term technical resistance for the price. The next target for bears are seen at the levels of 1.2362 and 1.2328.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2859

WR2 - 1.2772

WR1 - 1.2508

Weekly Pivot - 1.2419

WS1 - 1.2165

WS2 - 1.2080

WS3 - 1.1826

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for June 25, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

After making a new local high new at the level of 1.1348, the EUR/USD pair failed to rally higher. This level was the lower line of the supply zone located between the levels of 1.1348 - 1.1361. Any violation of the level of 1.1236 makes the rally towards the swing low located at the level of 1.1168 highly possible, so please keep an eye on the current developments at this market. Please notice the overbought market conditions and weak momentum support the bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1456

WR2 - 1.1397

WR1 - 1.1266

Weekly Pivot - 1.1215

WS1 - 1.1074

WS2 - 1.1031

WS3 - 1.0903

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on June 25th

Outlook for June 25:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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The key levels for the euro / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.1451, 1.1428, 1.1390, 1.1347, 1.1299, 1.1238, 1.1212 and 1.1168. Here, the price is close to the cancellation of the upward structure from June 22, which requires passing the noise range 1.1238 - 1.1212. In this case, the potential target is 1.1168. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1299. In this case, the first target is 1.1347. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow you to count on movement to the level of 1.1390. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1390 will lead to movement to a potential target - 1.1451. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation in the range 1.1428 - 1.1451.

The main trend is the ascending structure of June 22, the stage of deep correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1300 Take profit: 1.1345

Buy: 1.1348 Take profit: 1.1390

Sell: 1.1238 Take profit: 1.1213

Sell: 1.1210 Take profit: 1.1168

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The key levels for the pound / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.2745, 1.2684, 1.2638, 1.2572, 1.2488, 1.2419, 1.2388 and 1.2334. Here, the price is close to the cancellation of the upward structure from June 22nd, which requires passage of the noise range 1.2419 - 1.2388, in this case, the potential target is 1.2334. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2488. In this case, the target is 1.2572. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.2572 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 1.2638. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2638 - 1.2684. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2745. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of June 22, the stage of deep correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2574 Take profit: 1.2638

Buy: 1.2488 Take profit: 1.2570

Sell: 1.2386 Take profit: 1.2335

Sell: Take profit:

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The key levels for the dollar / franc pair on the H1 scale are: 0.9526, 0.9502, 0.9488, 0.9441, 0.9416, 0.9400, 0.9376 and 0.9363. Here, the price is close to the cancellation of the downward structure of June 22, which requires a breakdown of the noise range of 0.9488 - 0.9502. In this case, the potential target is 0.9526. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9441. In this case, the first target is 0.9416. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9416 - 0.9400. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.9376. We consider the level of 0.9363 to be a potential value for the bottom. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation in the range of 0.9363 - 0.9376, as well as an upward pullback.

The main trend is the local descending structure of June 22, the stage of deep correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9502 Take profit: 0.9526

Buy : Take profit:

Sell: 0.9440 Take profit: 0.9416

Sell: 0.9400 Take profit: 0.9377

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The key levels for the dollar / yen pair on the scale are: 108.31, 107.97, 107.73, 107.36, 106.98, 106.76, 106.45 and 106.07. Here, the price has canceled the formation of the downward structure and at the moment, we are following the formation of the potential for the top of June 23. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.36. In this case, the target is 107.73. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 107.73 - 107.97. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.31. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range 106.98 - 106.76. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 106.45. This is the key support level for the top.

Main trend: building potential for the top of June 23

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.36 Take profit: 107.71

Buy : 107.74 Take profit: 107.96

Sell: 106.98 Take profit: 106.77

Sell: 106.74 Take profit: 106.45

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The key levels for the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.3811, 1.3767, 1.3706, 1.3658, 1.3607, 1.3566, 1.3544 and 1.3484. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of June 23. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3658. In this case, the target is 1.3706. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.3706 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3767. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level 1.3811. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A correction is possible after the breakdown of the level of 1.3607. In this case, the target is 1.3566. The range of 1.3566 - 1.3544 is the key support for the top and price passing this will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.3484.

The main trend is the formation of the upward potential of June 23

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3658 Take profit: 1.3704

Buy : 1.3708 Take profit: 1.3765

Sell: 1.3605 Take profit: 1.3567

Sell: 1.3544 Take profit: 1.3486

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The key levels for the Australian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 0.7052, 0.6990, 0.6941, 0.6849, 0.6789, 0.6741, 0.6705. 0.6613 and 0.6549. Here, we are following the local ascendant structure from June 19th. We expect a short-term upward movement in the range of 0.6941 - 0.6990. The breakdown of the level of 0.6990 will lead to the cancellation of the downward trend. In this case, the first target is 0.7052.

The resumption of the downward trend is possibly after the breakdown of the level of 0.6849. Here, the first goal is 0.6789. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to rely on the movement to 0.6741. The price passing through the noise range 0.6741 - 0.6705 will lead to a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.6613. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 0.6549. Upon reaching which, we expect an upward pullback.

The main trend is the local upward structure of June 19

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6941 Take profit: 0.6988

Buy: 0.6992 Take profit: 0.7050

Sell : 0.6849 Take profit : 0.6790

Sell: 0.6787 Take profit: 0.6741

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The key levels for the euro / yen pair on the H1 scale are: 122.40, 121.93, 121.57, 121.08, 120.28, 119.94 and 119.29. Here, the price forms expressed initial conditions for the top of June 22. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 121.08. In this case the target is 121.57. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 121.57 - 121.93. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 122.40. We expect a downward pullback upon reaching which.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 120.28 - 119.94. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the target is 119.29. Price consolidation is near this level.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of June 22

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.08 Take profit: 121.57

Buy: 121.59 Take profit: 121.91

Sell: 120.28 Take profit: 119.95

Sell: 119.92 Take profit: 119.31

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The key levels for the pound / yen pair on the H1 scale are : 136.35, 135.65, 135.15, 134.40, 133.86, 133.15, 132.69, 132.17 and 131.71. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of June 22. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 133.86 - 134.40. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 135.15. Price consolidation is in the range of 135.15 - 135.65. We consider the level 136.35 to be a potential value for the top. We expect a downward pullback upon reaching this level.

A consolidated movement is possible in the range of 133.15 - 132.69. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the goal is 132.17. This is the key level for the top.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle of June 22

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 133.86 Take profit: 134.40

Buy: 134.44 Take profit: 135.15

Sell: 132.66 Take profit: 132.17

Sell: 132.15 Take profit: 131.72

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COVID-19 is back on the agenda: daily increase of new infections in the US exceeded the records in April

Market sentiment is changing rapidly. Just yesterday morning, traders showed a strong interest in risky assets, but in the afternoon changed dramatically as investors became nervous again and went back to safe-haven assets, particularly the US dollar. As a result, the USD index, which initially slowed down, turned 180 degrees and regained all its lost positions in just a few hours. In addition, the increasing demand for safe-haven assets was reflected in all currency pairs especially in dollar ones, so the USD index fluctuated in a range of 96.5-97.5, the same as it has been for the second week. However, despite yesterday's trading ending in favor of the dollar, the overall situation with the currency is still uncertain.

The demand for safe-haven assets increased for two reasons: first is the recent coronavirus outbreaks, and the second, is the possibility of a trade war between the US and the EU. Such fundamental factors set the tone for yesterday's trading, and continue to influence the mood of investors today.

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If the trade war between the US and the EU does not intensify (WTO will decide on the imposition of retaliatory duties in July. Brussels, on the other hand, may not use this resolution), the problem on coronavirus will be the primary issue.

Over the past two weeks, traders have changed their attitude towards the daily increase of new infections both in the US and in the whole world. The panic initially subsided after authorities assured everyone that a second wave of the pandemic is unlikely to occur in the US, and that local outbreaks were recorded only in certain states of the country. In addition, US Secretary of Treasury Steven Mnuchin and White House adviser Kevin Hassett said that a re-lockdown is very unlikely despite recent trends, so investors became reassured on the issue. However, the epidemiological situation continues to deteriorate every day (both in the US and in several other countries around the world), so panic arose again in the market.

The recent increase of infected people in the US is scary. Today, it became known that the daily increase of COVID-19 infections in the country exceeded the records in April, when the epidemic was at its peak. The increase was recorded in 20 states, with the highest being in Florida (5,508 new cases per day), followed by Texas (more than 5 thousand cases per day) and Arizona (almost 4 thousand). New infections also resumed in Washington, which in early March was one of the first states to be hit by the virus. All in all, 38,386 infections were recorded in the United States in just 24 hours, which is the highest daily rate since April, and the third for the entire pandemic.

The market is currently ignoring such anti-records. But if the situation continues to deteriorate further, an appropriate reaction of the authorities will follow, and the consequences of repeated lockdown are even harder to imagine. Negative dynamics are also observed on a global scale, as over the past day, 172,383 new cases of COVID-19 were recorded worldwide. According to the forecasts of the WHO, the total number of coronavirus patients next week may exceed 10 million. WHO representatives also announced the worsening situation in Europe, as the rate of new infections amounts to around 17-20 thousand new cases per day on average.

The issue on the coronavirus will continue to put pressure on the forex market until a vaccine is formulated. At the moment, more than a dozen possible vaccines are being tested worldwide, but so far none of them have been brought to the third stage. For such a phase of testing, thousands of participants are required, and the study should be conducted in a country where the virus is widespread and is in a natural environment. Two days before, Chinese company CNBG came close to this stage, and in July, they are set to conduct final tests of the coronavirus vaccine in the UAE.

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Such factors gave the US dollar another reason to recover. However, it's scale is still uncertain as after all, if the number of new infections in the US declines over the next few days, the issue of a re-lockdown will be abolished, and panic will subside again. The USD index will turn down again accordingly, so traders should pay attention not only to macroeconomic reports but also to statistics on the coronavirus both in the US and around the world.

As for the EUR/USD pair, the quotes are at a crossroads, being stuck in the area of support level 1.1260. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands coincided with the Tenkan-sen line at this price point on the daily chart, so bulls need to consolidate the quotes above this target before they can consider long positions. Such action will allow the Ichimoku indicator to generate a bullish signal, to which a movement up to the resistance level of 1.1400 may be expected. However, if the bears drag the quotes below 1.1260, the next destination will be the level of 1.1150, which is the three-week low.

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How long will the issue of COVID-19 overshadow investors' minds? (a local decrease in the AUD/USD and an increase in USD/CAD

The uncontrollable coronavirus pandemic in the United States, as well as in the Western Hemisphere as a whole, drives financial markets into the "Procrustean bed". Investors cannot understand what to do, which leads to high volatility in the markets and a state of general nervousness.

Reports from the United States about a sharp rise in the cases of COVID-19 have already stopped the June rally and fully restrains the real potential for the growth of global stock markets, the restoration of prices for commodity and commodity assets, as well as the continued depreciation of the US dollar.

Investors switched again from the release of encouraging economic statistics, both in Europe, America, and Asia, which indicate a strengthening rate of growth in the recovery of regional economies to the topic of the impact of coronavirus infection. Wednesday's news that New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have already quarantined those coming from other states with high levels of COVID-19 brought down equity markets in America itself and led Europe to fail amid fears of a second wave pandemic. The reasons for the rise in incidence in the United States are ordinary - social protests, which led to the widespread prevalence of this infection.

Fed statements by Fed member C. Evans, who was extremely pessimistic about the prospects for the country's economic recovery, worsened the situation, saying that he expects a wide economic recovery, but with a significant time delay later in 2022, and for now, the uncertainty factor will fully dominate. On the contrary, his pessimistic mood could not even be compensated by the optimistic words of J. Bullard, who said yesterday that he was waiting for a vibrant economic recovery in the second half of this year.

How will the current situation affect the currency market? We believe that the aggravation of COVID-19 will not lead to a strong demand for protective assets - for the dollar, franc, yen and government bonds of economically developed countries. Most likely, we should expect continued lateral dynamics in pairs where the dollar is present and nothing more. This is due to the fact that both the dollar and the major currencies traded against it do not have a strong weight in order to improve their position. This happens, on the one hand, due to the broadest incentive measures by the world Central Banks, cutting interest rates, and on the other, due to the weakness of economies due to the coronavirus pandemic.

We continue to expect that this state of affairs will continue until the end of this month. The negative side of COVID-19 will pull up the dollar and other defensive assets, and the glimpses of optimism, primarily related to the fact that the growth of the economies of the leading economies is restored, will support hopes for a wide revival of economic activity.

On Thursday, US GDP data for the first quarter and the values of basic orders for durable goods will be released. It is likely that the positive values of the second indicator can locally contribute to the demand for risk and ease the pressure of the dollar and other protective assets.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair continues to remain in the range on a wave of controversial factors - the aggravation of the situation with COVID-19 in America and clear signs of a recovery in global economic growth. The pair may decline to the lower border of the range 0.6800-0.6975 before turning up to 0.6975.

The USD/CAD pair also remains in the range of 1.3500-1.3685. The declining oil prices in the wake of the situation with coronavirus infection in Canada and the US may stimulate the pair to rise to the level of 1.3685.

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Hot forecast and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on June 25, 2020

Incredibly technical and beautiful, the dollar won back exactly half of its losses in the first two days of the week. And all this happened ami a completely empty macroeconomic calendar. So investors prepared for today's American statistics. There will be no other today.

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So, at first glance, the main event of the day is the publication of final data on US GDP for the first quarter. Moreover, the final assessment should be slightly worse than the preliminary one. If the last preliminary estimate showed a decline of 4.8%, then today's data should show a decline of 5.0%. So it is likely that the dollar will begin to lose its position literally before the publication of these data. Like it or not, but we are talking about a much more impressive decline than anticipated. However, the decline in US GDP is already taken into account by the market, so the scale of the dollar's fall will not be significant. It will only be a minor adjustment. But other macroeconomic data that is published today will subsequently lead to a resumption of the strengthening of the dollar, as they are purely positive. Especially if you look at orders for durable goods, which can grow as much as 8.5%. And such growth indicates a recovery in consumer demand, which will affect industry. In addition, a further gradual reduction in the number of applications for unemployment benefits is expected. In particular, the number of initial applications should decrease from 1,508,000 to 1,380,000. The number of repeated applications may decrease from 20,544,00 to 20,100,000. So for the most part, macroeconomic statistics will be more positive.

GDP growth rate (United States):

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see the price reversal relative to the correction course, where the quote managed to return to the area of 1.1250, and this is more than half the output. Regarding the development of quotes, the recovery process is already being discussed here as the second week, which carries with it not just a return of the price to the range of 1.1180, but to the region of April of the current year.

In terms of volatility, there are high indicators of daily dynamics on a stable basis here, which indicates the prevailing speculative interest.

Considering the trading chart with respect to the daily period, one can see that the area of interaction of the trading forces of 1.1440/1.1500 is the main point of resistance from which the recovery process originated.

We can assume a temporary price fluctuation within the range of 1.1240/1.1260, where prior to the publication of data on the United States, a local pullback to the direction of the 1.1275 value is not ruled out. The main prospect is still the downward development, where in case the price is consolidated lower than 1.1230, a sequential course will open for us in the direction of 1,1200-1,1180.

Specifying all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider the buy positions higher than 1.1260, with the prospect of a move to 1.1275.

- We consider selling positions as a recovery process lower than 1.1230, with the prospect of a move to 1.1200-1.1180.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the performance of technical instruments relative to hour and day periods signal a sale due to the recovery process.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 25, 2020

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GBP/JPY is trading sluggishly. A break above minor resistance at 133.65 will indicate that the next impulsive rally higher to key-resistance at 136.35 is in motion. It may grow above the 139.67 peak.

We need the break above minor resistance at 133.65 to confirm the completion of this minor correction. Failure to break clearly above 133.65 will likely mean that the pair will trade sideways before it gains ground.

R3: 135.18

R2: 134.38

R1: 133.81

Pivot: 133.65

S1: 133.08

S2: 132.72

S3: 132.10

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 132.85 with our stop placed at 131.55. Upon a break above minor resistance at 133.65 we will raise our stop to 132.50.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 25, 2020

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EUR/JPY is in a minor correction from 121.10 preparing for a new impulsive rally higher towards the key-resistance at 122.12. A break above here will confirm that wave 2 has been completed. It is likely to test 119.41 and wave 3 is in motion for an ultimate break above the peak at 124.43.

In the short-term, we are looking for a break above minor resistance at 120.75 to confirm this minor correction is completed and the rally to 122.12 is unfolding.

R3: 122.12

R2: 121.58

R1: 121.23

Pivot: 120.75

S1: 120.19

S2: 119.88

S3: 119.60

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 119.95 and we have our stop placed at 119.35.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 25 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pound loses bullish momentum. COT reports.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

After another unsuccessful attempt by the pound to go beyond weekly highs yesterday, pressure returned, and a breakthrough of the rather important support 1.2463 led to a larger downward correction, which could soon develop into a new bearish market. Buyers need to protect support at 1.2395 to prevent this, where forming a false breakout will be a signal to open long positions while expecting a return to resistance 1.2463, where the moving averages are held. It depends on this level whether the bulls will be able to continue the upward correction this week or not. Consolidating above will be a signal to open long positions in the hope of updating the weekly high in the area of 1.2536, where I recommend taking profits. If there is no activity in the support area of 1.2395, it is best to abandon long positions before updating the low of 1.2334 and buy the pound there for a rebound, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. Also, do not forget about the interest of large players. The COT report states that last week short non-commercial positions were reduced from 52,941 to 45,376. At that time, long non-commercial positions sharply rose from 28,893 to 29,379. As a result, the non-commercial net position reduced their negative value at -15,998, versus -24,048, which indicates a possible market reversal and building a new bullish momentum in the medium term.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Pound sellers will monitor retail sales in the UK and the minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England Financial Policy Committee today, which could lead to another sale of the pound. Consolidating below support 1.2395 in the morning will be a good signal to open short positions in the hope of continuing a downward trend to the low of 1.2334, the test of which will completely erase the bullish momentum formed earlier this week. A break of 1.2334 will pull down GBP/USD to a low of 1.2290, where I recommend taking profits. Bulls can try to save the situation in the morning, so forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2463, where the moving averages also take place, will be a good signal to open short positions. I recommend selling GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from a weekly high in the region of 1.2536 today, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a further decline in the pound.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.2365 will increase pressure on the pound. You can count on an upward correction only after a breakout of the average indicator border in the region of 1.2435.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-profit traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 25 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Bears are advancing. Euro correction can

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The European currency fell against the US dollar yesterday despite the good fundamental data for Germany and the high likelihood of a faster economic recovery after the coronavirus pandemic, as many market participants fear the outbreak of the second wave of COVID-19. It was not possible to wait for a more or less suitable signal to open short positions in the euro yesterday afternoon. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the 1.1272 level I indicated was completely smeared, which did not allow us to enter the market in short positions in order to continue the downward correction. The emphasis shifted to resistance 1.1280 today in the morning. It is a return to this level that will allow euro buyers to count on keeping the market under their control and on growth by the end of the week in the resistance area of 1.1321, where I recommend taking profits. An equally important task is to protect support at 1.1224, from which we observed a large increase in EUR/USD on Tuesday. Forming a false breakout there will be a signal to buy the euro. In the absence of activity and a quick upward movement from this level, it is best to postpone long positions in the euro until the low of 1.1204 is updated, counting on a rebound from it of 25-30 points by the end of the day. It is also necessary to remember the COT reports, which clearly indicate the preservation of the bullish momentum in the market. Any decline in the euro will make the market more suitable for purchases by institutional investors. During the reporting week, a short non-commercial position was reduced from 89,020 to 69,988, while long non-commercial positions sharply rose from 184,669 to 187,120. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position rose again to 117 132, against 95,639, which indicates an increase in interest in buying risky assets even at current prices high enough for the market.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers have managed to cool the ardor of buyers of risky assets, and today's European Central Bank report from the monetary policy meeting could put even more pressure on the euro, since there is no place to wait for the eurozone. Bears will aim to break through and consolidate below support 1.1234, which will be a signal to open short positions in order to continue pulling down EUR /USD to the area of a larger support of 1.1204, where I recommend taking profits. Apparently, testing 1.1204 will lead to a complete change in the upward trend observed in the euro this week. In case of an upward correction of the pair in the morning, the bears will be noticeable in the resistance area of 1.1280, where the formation of a false breakout will also be a signal to sell the euro. Moving averages are also taking place there now. Otherwise, short positions can be opened on a rebound from a high of 1.1321, based on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates an attempt to return the market under their control by the bears.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator in the region of 1.1225 will increase pressure on the euro. It is possible to count on an upward correction only after a breakout of the average indicator border in the region of 1.1265.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-profit traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold trying to reach 1753.91, June 25, 2020

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If we look at the 4-hour chart, we can see that gold is trying to break through the nearest liquidity void at 1753.91. If so, gold is likely to grow and close above 1778.35.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 25, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro fell by 57 points yesterday, blocking the body of the daily candle growth on Tuesday. A few formal technical touches are missing to fully form a reversal condition. This is the transition of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator to the zone of negative values on the daily chart. The price needs to drop around ten points for this transition. The nearest target at 1.1195 will be open for all technical conditions. Furthermore, the bears will fight for the second goal of 1.1111.

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The price returned below the MACD indicator line and consolidated below it on the H4 chart, as well as under the target level of 1.1265. Also, the signal line of the oscillator in the last day worked out almost the entire range of its own channel after a short-term false exit above its upper boundary. Now the oscillator needs to go below the lower boundary of the channel in order to finally form a falling market vector. Visually, this exit under the channel border will occur when the price overcomes the current low of 1.1246.

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So, we are waiting for the price to fall to the targets 1.1195 and 1.1111.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on June 25, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar's attempt from yesterday to go up to the level of 0.7080 was suppressed by the wide market; The S&P 500 -2.59%, dollar index 0.56%, while non-ferrous metals fell. The aussie's situation quickly returned to a downward direction - the Marlin oscillator turned down from the border of the growth zone with a confirming picture on a four-hour scale.

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The price has consolidated under the red balance indicator line on the H4 chart, Marlin is falling in the zone of negative values. The first target at 0.6680 (March 9 high) is open.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 25, 2020

USD/JPY

The US dollar gained so much yesterday that even the yen lost to it as an instrument of risk aversion. The yen weakened by 50 points. The main topic of risk was the data on the beginning of the second wave of the spread of the Covid-19 virus, there was a surge in the incidence in the United States, India and Mexico.

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The price pierced the embedded line of the price channel of the higher timeframe on the daily chart this morning. The price is facing two choices, to break out of the resistance and continue to grow towards the nearest target 107.77 or turn around and show market participants a new impulse to 105.85. The bullish scenario reinforces the fact that the price is above the MACD indicator line (blue), the Marlin indicator, which is still in the declining trend zone, is fighting for the bearish scenario.

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The price is above the MACD line on the four-hour chart, but below the balance line (red indicator). Marlin in the growth zone.

As a result, the situation on the yen looks extremely uncertain, the price even correlated with the stock markets: the S&P 500 showed -2.59% yesterday, Nikkei 225 is losing -1.40% today.

We are waiting for the development of events and certainty in this situation.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD facing bearish pressure, potential for further drop

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.23546

Reason for Entry: Our horizontal overlap support, 100% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 1.22330

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low support, 78.6% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.24628

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal pullback resistance, 38.2% fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDUSD coming close to ascending trendline support! Bounce expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.68456

Reason for Entry:

78.6% Fibonacci retracement, ascending trendline support

Take Profit: 0.68926

Reason for Take Profit:

38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.68118

Reason for Stop Loss:

-27.2% Fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCAD is approaching 1st support, possible bounce !

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.3618

Reason for Entry: horizontal pullback support

Take Profit :1.3742

Reason for Take Profit: horizontal overlap

Stop Loss:1.3496

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing low support

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair for June 25. COT report. Buyers unexpectedly fell near 1.1341. They

EUR/USD 1H

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Buyers continued to retreat from the highs reached the previous day on the hourly timeframe on June 24, showing their weak motivation for further upward movement. As a result, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the resistance area of 1.1326-1.1341 and began a new round of downward movement to the ascending trend line. Thus, formally, an upward trend is still maintained, supported by just this trend line. It turns out that the fate of the euro/dollar pair for the coming days will be decided near this trend line. If it is overcome, then the bears will become active again and continue to put pressure on the dollar. Otherwise, buyers will try to once again pull the pair above the 1.1326-1.1341 area to form a new upward trend.

EUR/USD 15M

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The lowest linear regression channel turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, which indicates a new approach of the pair to the downward movement. But now everything will depend on overcoming or not overcoming the trend line.

COT Report

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The euro/dollar pair steadily rose until June 16 (the deadline, data for which is included in the latest COT report) and was only adjusted in recent days. According to the COT report, professional traders were busy during the entire reporting week, not with opening purchase contracts, which could be assumed based on the direction the pair was moving, but with closing sale contracts. In just five days, professional traders closed almost 20,000 Sell contracts and at the same time opened 1,300 Long Euro contracts. Thus, strengthening the European currency at that time was absolutely logical. But we emphasize that major market players are not buying the euro for the second week in a row, and therefore do not believe in the prospects of this currency. The euro grew for two weeks almost at the mere closure of contracts for sale by large speculators, which caused a skew of supply and demand for the euro. After a relatively small correction, the European currency resumed its upward movement, and the new COT report will answer the question whether the demand for the euro has increased this time, or is it going up again not because market participants buy it?

The general fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair remained the same on Wednesday. No major changes. In principle, there were no high-profile events or macroeconomic statistics on this day. There will be loud statistics today. Reports on GDP and durable goods orders will be published in the United States. These are very important reports that cannot be ignored by traders. In recent days there has been a classic situation where "some cannot, but others do not want." Buyers already climbed too high to easily and naturally continue to buy the pair. Sellers are frankly afraid to start investing in the dollar, since all the events taking place in the United States now are tense. As a result, we become witnesses to the "swing". Today, the GDP report may make bulls trade more actively, because it is unlikely that the US economy will be less than 5% in the first quarter. But more than 5% is possible. The same goes for the durable goods order report. After two absolutely disastrous months, an increase is now expected in all categories of these products. But what will the evidence show? Three out of four indicators predict a low increase compared to April, which in reality may not be ...

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 25:

1) Bears are making a new attempt to seize the initiative from the bulls and overcome the trend line. So far, they have managed to descend to the Kijun-sen line, overcoming which will make it possible to open sell-positions while aiming for a trend line. However, it will be possible to trade lower if the trend line is overcome. In this case, the targets for short positions will be the support levels 1.1112 and 1.1047. Potential Take Profit range from 40 to 200 points.

2) But the buyers perked up, but it was not enough to overcome the area of 1.1326-1.1341. Therefore, we advise you to wait until this area is overcome before buying the EUR/USD pair with a target at the resistance level of 1.1417. Potential Take Profit in this case is about 70 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 25. The United States are mired in one big cloud of "uncertainty". The next four months

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 32.0601

For the euro/dollar currency pair, the third trading day of the week was held in a corrective movement against the background of a complete lack of any fundamental information and macroeconomic reports. During the day, traders simply had nothing to react to, nothing to pay attention to. Thus, the euro/dollar pair began to adjust. At the same time, the technical picture looks quite interesting now and allows us to make some assumptions about the future movements of the currency pair. For example, during the past day, traders managed to work out the Murray level of "5/8"-1.1353 and rebounded from it. This is the second time that traders have failed to overcome this level in the past two weeks. Thus, this rebound can send the pair down again to the previous local low of about $ 1.12. However, traders are now clearly interested in the prospects of an upward trend, which seems to have resumed this trading week. We believe that from a fundamental point of view, the prospects for the European currency are quite ambiguous, however, it has certain chances for continued growth. The problem is that in recent weeks, the euro currency has already grown significantly, rising by about three cents against the dollar. For comparison, for the entire previous year, the dollar rose by 2 cents. Thus, three cents of advantage on a virtually flat spot is a lot. As for the reasons, they are still ambiguous. The growth of the euro can be associated with the political crisis in the United States (we continue to insist on this interpretation), and with a high probability of termination of the trade deal between China and the United States and, as a result, the beginning of a new trade war or even the "cold" war. It is completely unclear what will happen to the country after the elections and who will win these elections. It is completely unclear what to do with the "coronavirus", which continues to spread calmly across the United States, claiming more and more American lives. In general, now the number of these "incomprehensible" is so large that it is almost impossible to apply fundamental analysis in the general analysis of the currency market. By the way, we would like to remind you that during the 18-month trade war between Washington and Beijing, the dollar did not feel particularly strong pressure on itself. Thus, even now, the risks of an escalation of the conflict are just risks. But no one knows how these risks are interpreted by major market players. Perhaps there is more secret information in higher circles about the future relationship between Beijing and Washington. Perhaps in the highest circles and more accurately known about the prospects of Donald Trump as President of the United States. In general, there may be much more potentially important information, however, it is not available to ordinary traders.

But the information that is available to ordinary traders says now that Trump continues to suffer defeat after defeat in 2020. He has been repeatedly criticized by high-ranking officials and members of the Republican party (it is not worth talking about the Democrats). Now an open war has been declared against him by his former adviser, John Bolton, who wrote a book that reveals many aspects of the president's work, stating that "there has never been a more incompetent president in the United States". Trump, of course, immediately threatened Bolton with legal proceedings, however, what difference does it make? The key aspects of the book have already become known to everyone. And this is another blow to Trump's political ratings, which are already bursting at the seams in 2020. The most important thing is that Trump is no longer believed. No one believes him. His Twitter posts are increasingly becoming fake. Many media outlets and experts note that Trump constantly makes contradictory statements, the essence of which is completely untrue. Some of them can not be verified, some of them can be and that's where the US President begins to have problems. Just the other day, Donald Trump publicly and, as usual, unsubstantiated accused former US President Barack Obama of treason. The head of the White House believes that employees of the Obama administration spied on his election campaign in 2016. Trump accused Obama of doing everything possible in 2016 to prevent him from becoming president and hinted that democrats might try to crank something like that in 2020. "This is high treason. When I spoke a long time ago, I said that they were spying on our campaign. It turns out I was right. We'll see what happens to them now," Trump said in an interview. Well, most political analysts immediately agreed that through "Obamagate", Trump is trying to cast a shadow on his current rival for the presidential seat in the election, Joe Biden, who was Vice President under Barack Obama. What is this if not a political crisis?

On Thursday, June 25, a large number of important macroeconomic reports are planned in the United States, including orders for durable goods, GDP for the first quarter, and applications for unemployment benefits. The last report can be safely discarded, however, you need to focus on the first two. The most important, of course, is the GDP report, which has a forecast of -5%. Recall that in previous readings, US GDP losses were expected to be 4.8% in the first quarter. Therefore, this time the real losses may also be higher than the forecast. And if this happens, the US currency may again be under market pressure. The same applies to the first report on orders for durable goods. This category of goods is characterized by its high cost and long service life, respectively, which has a high impact on the economy and GDP. All four derivatives are expected to increase in comparison with the previous month. If the forecasts do not come true, the US dollar may again be under pressure from traders.

But from a technical point of view, everything is simple. If the pair overcomes the moving average, the downward movement will continue to approximately 1.1200. If it bounces, then the price will return to the Murray level of "5/8"-1.1353, at least.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of June 25 is 89 points and now the value of the indicator is characterized as "average", in general, the volatility continues to decrease. We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1170 and 1.1348 today. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top will signal a possible resumption of the upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1353

R2 – 1.1475

R3 – 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair settled above the moving average, but could not overcome the Murray level of "5/8". Thus, long positions with targets of 1.1348 and 1.1475 remain relevant at this time, but only if the price rebounds from the moving average line. It is recommended to return to selling the pair not before fixing the price below the moving average with the first goals of 1.1170 and 1.1108.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Premature panic: specter of a new trade war has scared traders

The euro-dollar pair shows multidirectional dynamics today. The price returned to the 13th figure in the morning - primarily due to the general weakening of the US currency. But the roles changed in the afternoon: the bears seized the initiative and are now trying to get the pair back under the Tenkan-sen line (which currently corresponds to the 1.1260 mark). From a technical point of view, this is a strategically important price barrier: if the price consolidates on this target, the Ichimoku trend indicator on the daily chart will generate a bullish Parade of Lines signal that will allow buyers to test the next resistance level of 1.1400 and the main resistance level of 1.1420 (three-month high, coinciding with the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1).

It is worth noting that the downward momentum of EUR/USD is only partly due to the strengthening of the dollar. The pair is mainly declining due to a sharp weakening of the euro across the market. The dollar itself still demonstrates vulnerability due to many factors that have accumulated throughout the week (increased risk sentiment, weak US macro reports, uncertainty about additional assistance to the US economy, etc.). But the European currency quite unexpectedly "fell under the hand", although the trade conflict between the US and the EU has been smoldering for a long time.

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Let me remind you that Washington voiced its complaints to Europeans back in April last year: according to the White House, some European countries (namely France, Italy, Spain and Germany) illegally subsidized the European aircraft manufacturing concern Airbus, causing the US state $11 billion in annual damage. The US then threatened to introduce additional duties on a number of goods from the above European countries.

A little later - in October last year - Brussels lost a dispute over subsidies for Airbus to the World Trade Organization. This fact was the next stage in the trade confrontation between the United States and the European Union. Washington expressed its readiness to introduce tariffs authorized by the WTO ($7.5 billion), while Brussels expressed a similar willingness to use mirror measures. The White House took advantage of its right on October 18: the United States introduced additional tariffs for the above amount relative to some goods imported from the European Union. The list of these products is quite large - in particular, civilian aircraft levied a 10% tariff, and food and alcoholic beverages (Scotch whiskey, French wine, sire, clothing, coffee) charged 25%. In addition, European pork, yoghurts, butter, olives and other European exports most in demand in the United States fell under new sanctions.

The EU did not remain in debt and asked the WTO to authorize the imposition of retaliatory duties in the amount of 11 billion 200 million dollars for American goods. Today it became known that the WTO will decide on trade return tariffs in July. According to most experts, if Brussels receives a green light in this matter and takes advantage of its right, then losses will be incurred not only by US aircraft manufacturers, but also coal producers, farmers, as well as representatives of the fishing industry. This will be a rather painful blow for Donald Trump, whose rating is already falling against the backdrop of the coronavirus epidemic, mass protests and the economic crisis. The above sectors of the economy are especially important for the head of the White House, since their representatives are concentrated mainly in the states that support the Republicans (in particular, the fishing sector is important for Louisiana, the coal mining industry for Missouri).

Given this disposition, some experts have suggested that the trade war between the US and the EU will continue, thereby exacerbating the situation of the global economy. For example, Trump could bring back the issue of introducing duties on European cars and spare parts. This "Damocles Sword" has been hanging over Europe for a long time, since 2018. Under attack is the automotive industry not only in Germany, but also in France and Italy - according to preliminary estimates, the total cost of the indicated duties is $300 billion. According to experts, in the case of the introduction of American duties, the domino effect will follow: the business climate in the eurozone countries will significantly deteriorate again, thereby slowing down the growth of key indicators and the economy as a whole. This question was put on a "long-playing pause" thanks to trade negotiations, but the White House can play this card at any time, especially against the backdrop of the upcoming presidential election.

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Such prospects greatly excited the market participants. Anti-risk sentiment increased again, providing background support to the dollar as a defensive asset. In turn, the European currency was under pressure - after all, if a trade war with Washington really becomes a reality, the process of economic recovery in the EU could be significantly delayed.

But here is the keyword "if." Firstly, it is not a fact that the WTO will decide in favor of Brussels. Secondly, it is not a fact that Trump will continue to heat up the situation, because the attitude of the Americans towards the trade wars initiated by him is far from unambiguous. And thirdly, even if the WTO allows the European Union to introduce retaliatory duties, it is not a fact that it will use this right. It is likely that Europeans are using this decision as a powerful argument in repeated trade negotiations.

Therefore, in this case, the downward momentum is due to the factor of surprise, while it is too early to talk about the real threats of a trade war. If EUR/USD remains above 1.1260 by the end of the day, then you can consider the longs to the first resistance level of 1.1400 and the main resistance level of 1.1420 (a three-month high coinciding with the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1) for the pair.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com