EUR/USD: A slight increase in the sentiment index of the eurozone economy is not enough for the upward impulse of the euro

According to the data, the confidence of eurozone companies grew in May due to the good growth of the economy at the beginning of this year. This helped to smooth out the situation with weak exports, which will still manifest itself in the 2nd quarter of this year.

Growing consumer confidence will certainly support the eurozone economy, but activity will remain quite restrained. According to the European Commission, the sentiment index in the eurozone economy rose to 105.1 points in May from 103.9 points in April. Economists had expected the indicator to fall to 103.8.

It is worth noting that due to the trade wars that have been waged by the White House administration for more than a year, the sentiment of eurozone producers gradually deteriorated because of the weakening external demand for goods from Europe. The situation will most likely get worse, since after the "solution of the problem with China", the United States will clearly return to a trade war with the EU.

As for the consumer confidence index, it was -6.5 points in May against -6.5 points in April, which fully coincided with economists' forecasts.

The index of confidence in the eurozone industry in May pulled closer to zero and was at the level of -2.9 points against -4.3 points in April. Although, it was predicted not to change. The index of confidence in the services sector of the eurozone in May continued to grow and amounted to 12.2 points against the forecast of 11.8 points.

Data on lending in the euro area also turned out to be good news for traders and supported the euro in the current conditions of uncertainty.

According to the report of the European Central Bank, household lending grew by 3.4% in April of this year after rising by 3.3% in March, which will certainly support retail sales and weaken economic growth in the 2nd quarter of this year. Lending to companies grew even more in April, amounting to 3.9% against 3.6% in March.

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As a result, the Eurozone M3 monetary aggregate increased by 4.7% in April with a growth forecast of 4.4%. Moreover, the Eurozone M3 monetary aggregate from February to April increased by 4.5%.

However, reports alone are not enough to return the demand for the European currency. From a technical point of view, the correction is not yet complete, and a breakthrough in support of 1.1170 will only increase the pressure on the euro. More acceptable purchase levels can be traced at 1.1150 and 1.1110 lows. If the demand for the euro returns and a weak report on consumer confidence in the US may help the bulls in the afternoon, a break of the resistance at 1.1200 will lead to the formation of a new upward wave in risky assets and an update of large levels in the range of 1.1220 and 1.1250.

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GBP / USD plan for the American session on May 28. Traders do not know what to do next with the pound

To open long positions on GBP / USD pair, you need:

The technical picture has not changed. The British pound is on the verge of another major fall, but buyers still have a chance to continue the upward correction. In the second half of the day, buyers of the pound still need all of the same return and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2969. This will make it possible to count on a rapid growth to the maximum of 1.2744 and an update of the resistance of 1.2800, where I recommend taking profits. With a further decrease in the pound, you can open long positions on a false breakdown from the low of 1.2648 or on the rebound from the support of 1.2607.

To open short positions on GBP / USD pair, you need:

As long as trading will be below the resistance of 1.2696, pressure on the pound will continue. In support of this, a false breakdown was formed in the first half of the day at the level of 1.2696. However, the main task of the bears is the support of 1.2648 and a breakthrough of which can lead to an update of the minimum of 1.2607 and 1.2564, where I recommend taking profits. When the growth scenario is above 1.2696 in the second half of the day, you can return to sales of the pound immediately to rebound from a maximum of 1.2744.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Volatility has decreased, which does not give signals for entering the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD plan for the US session on May 28. Consumer confidence in the eurozone remained at the past level

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The European currency only regained its morning position after the release of a report on consumer confidence in the eurozone, as well as lending, but the technical picture remained the same. To continue the upward impulse, it is necessary to get above the resistance of 1.1196, where the demand for the euro will increase. This will lead to an update of the highs of 1.1218 and 1.1243, where the upper limit of the current upward channel is located. In the event of a decline in the euro against the background of strong data on the American economy, support will be provided by the area of 1.1170 but it is best to open long positions from it, provided that a false breakdown is formed. I recommend to buy the EUR/USD pair for a rebound only after the testing of the minimum at 1.1143.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

False breakdown and decline under the resistance level of 1.1196 led to a slight decrease in the euro in the first half of the day. However, the main task of sellers is to return to the major support level of 1.1170, which will increase the pressure on the euro and lead to an update of the minimum of 1.1143, where I recommend taking profits. If the scenario is a weak report on consumer confidence in the US, it is best to return to short positions in EUR/USD pair after updating the maximum of 1.1218 or to rebound from a larger level of 1.1243.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Volatility has decreased, which entered the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD and GBP / USD: Forecast and Simplified wave analysis for May 28

EUR / USD pair

From the end of March, the direction of the euro price movement was set by a downward wave. We can state its ending given various factors such as the pronounced corrective nature of the wave, the completeness of its structure, the achievement of the target zone and the presence of a potential reversal model. In the bullish wave of May 23, a correction is being formed in the last days.

Forecast:

In the first half of the day today, a downward motion vector of the pair is expected, right up to its completion. By the end of the day, the likelihood of a change in the rate and a repeated price rise is increased. The daily range of travel is limited by oncoming settlement zones.

Recommendations:

Traders should be cautious in selling the European currency today since the short-term decline. In the area of support, it is recommended to start tracking reversal signals to search for entry into long positions.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1220 / 1.1250

Support areas:

- 1.1170 / 1.1140

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GBP / USD pair

The latest wave of trading for intraday traders starts from May 3rd. The wave completes a larger downward formation. On May 21, the final section began, which in turn, the first parts (A+B) were already formed. Since yesterday, the price rolled upward.

Forecast:

Over the next trading sessions, the current flat mood of the pound movement is expected to complete. Next, it is expected to turn and the price move down major. A breakthrough beyond the lower boundary of the support zone is unlikely today.

Recommendations:

There are no conditions for buying pounds today. It is recommended to wait for the completion of the ascending movements and look for an opportunity to enter short positions in this instrument at their end.

Resistance zones:

- 1.2700 / 1.2730

Support areas:

- 1.2630 / 1.2600

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Explanations to the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). Each of these analyzes the last incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure and the dotted exhibits the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time.

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EUR/USD and AUD/USD: Consumer confidence in Germany is falling while it is improving in Australia

The lack of important fundamental statistics forces many euro buyers to wait for more acceptable support levels to be updated.

Report on consumer sentiment in Germany did not cause major changes in the market but will likely worsen in June of this year. The decline in sentiment is directly related to the weakening of economic expectations. According to the GfK research group, the leading consumer confidence index GfK fell to 10.1 points in June 2019 from 10.2 points in May. Data for May were revised downwards. Initially, it was reported that the index was 10.4 points. Economists had forecast that the indicator would be equal to 10.4 points in June. Initially, it was reported that the index was 10.4 points. Economists had forecast that the indicator would be equal to 10.4 points in June.

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According to Gfk, it is noted that the main fall of the index is directly dependent on the slowdown in the global economy, as well as incomprehensible scenarios Brexit. Key risk factors also include an escalating trade conflict with the United States.

The index of economic expectations in May amounted to 1.7 points versus 3.0 points in April. Consumer expectations regarding revenues rose to 57.7 points from 56.8 points in April.

Consumer confidence in France rose slightly. According to the report, the index increased to 99 points against 96 points in April of this year. Economists had forecast that consumer confidence in France would be at 97 points in May.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, further upward movement will directly depend on the resistance level of 1.1195. Only a break above this range will return the demand for risky assets and will lead to an update of yesterday's high near 1.1215 and then to the exit to the next large area of 1.1250. If the pressure on the euro continues and it can happen after the reports on the eurozone, the output of which is expected in the first half of the day. It is best to rely on long positions after updating a large support level in the area of 1.1150.

The Australian dollar rose slightly after the report that Australian consumer confidence continued to improve last week and show growth against the background of talks about the coming reduction in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia. According to the report, the indicator for assessing current financial conditions rose by 1.2%, while the index reflecting the assessment of current economic conditions added 3.0%. Australia's inflation expectations dropped in April.

However, the statements of the American President Donald Trump returned to the market with a bearish sentiment. During the interview, Trump said that he had made significant progress in trade negotiations with Japan. Thus, duties on Chinese imports can be easily increased.

As for the technical picture of the AUD/USD pair, the current alignment of forces remains on the buyers' side. However, this requires a breakthrough above the resistance of 0.6940, which will open a direct road to the area of the new and larger high 0.6980. While maintaining pressure on the Australian dollar, support will be the area of 0.6890.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 28, 2019

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.1192. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.1192 to the bottom around 1.1111. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1192 followed by 1.1216, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1111. According to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.1192 and 1.1111; for that we expect a range of 81 pips. If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1111, the market will decline further to 1.1069. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1069 with a view to test the second support. However, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.1192 (major resistance), then this scenario may become invalidated.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 28, 2019

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of weakness following a breakout of the lowest level of 0.6571.

On the H1 chart, the level of 0.6571 coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor resistance today. Since the trend is below the 38.2% Fibonacci level, the market is still in a downtrend.

However, the resistance is seen at the level of 0.6571. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100).

Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside.

Therefore, resistance will be found at the level of 0.6571 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6500.

If the trend breaks the first supprt at 0.6500, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the levels 0.6469 and 0.6424.

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Excess raw materials and falling demand are the main enemies of the oil market

According to experts, the past week was the worst for the oil market since the beginning of this year. The reasons for this is that experts believe the protracted trade conflict between the US and China, as well as the decline in global demand for black gold, and concerns about a possible surplus of raw materials.

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Prices for black gold collapsed primarily due to the escalation of the US-China trade war, analysts emphasized. Last Wednesday, May 22, the Energy Information Administration of the United States Department of Energy (EIA) announced an unexpected increase in oil and gasoline reserves amid growing production. Based on these data, the large investment bank Standard Chartered has calculated the bull-bear index, an indicator that determines the strength of the trend and the probability of its change in the oil market. In this week, this indicator has made 100 points, which shows the weakest data for the last six years.

According to analysts, the decline in the black gold market was largely due to numerous interruptions in oil supplies and heightened tensions in the Middle East. Many experts believed that a sudden "bearish" turn in the oil market increases the chances of prolongation of OPEC+ production cuts for this year.

Fears about the slowdown of the global economy also lead to a decrease in demand for oil, experts reminded. According to Bloomberg, small Chinese refineries reduce the processing of raw materials due to the growing oversupply of gasoline. The increase in stocks is a consequence of the weakening of demand and the negative impact of a trade war on the Chinese economy.

The US economy is more stable as its performance is quite strong. In the first quarter of 2019, a significant increase in GDP was recorded and unemployment in the United States is at a historic low.

If economic growth weakens, experts predicted a sharp drop in demand for crude oil. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for black gold increased by in the first quarter of this year by 640 thousand barrels per day. This is much less than the previous estimate of growth at 1 million barrels per day. Lower than expected growth rates led to an oversupply of 0.7 million barrels of oil per day, analysts emphasized.

IEA experts have reduced the demand forecast for this year in the expectation that it will grow in the second half of 2019. However, some experts believe that this is unlikely given the escalation of the trade war and the global sale of shares.

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Bitcoin: The real Bitcoin market is efficient and streamlined

Bitwise Asset Management came to this conclusion, stating that the market can be reduced by almost 95% if the reports eliminate the fabricated volumes and fictitious data from CoinMarketCap. However, the rest will be supported by a regulated market of significant derivatives and be very effective.

Bitcoin (BTC) buy signal:

The task of Bitcoin buyers is to break through the range of 8,900, which will lead to new highs of 9,100 and 9,300, where I recommend taking profits. Those who still believe in decline and correction of Bitcoin can wait for the renewal of 8,480 minimums or buy for a rebound from 8,120.

Bitcoin Sales Signal (BTC)

Yesterday, an unsuccessful breakthrough of the resistance of 8,900 has already taken place but a major sell-off did not happen. It is best to return to short positions in Bitcoin at the next unsuccessful breakdown of 8,900 with confirmation of divergence on the MACD indicator, which will be the first signal to open short positions. However, more acceptable levels for selling Bitcoin are seen in the region of 9,100 and a little higher in the region of 9,300. The purpose of the bears is to return the cryptocurrency rate to the support area of 8,480.

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Wave analysis for EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs on May 28. The markets once again sell the euro and the pound amid "zero"

EUR / USD pair

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Bidding on the EUR/USD pair on Monday, May 27, ended with a decline of 15 basis points. Thus, the pair shows a willingness to resume building a downward trend within the proposed wave 3 with a complication in wave 2, 3, 3. If this is true, the decline will continue with targets located near the Fibonacci level of 161.8%. News background is now completely neutral for the pair. At the end of last week, the euro received support from weak news from the US on business activity and orders for durable goods. But the effect of the publication of these news has already passed and the market is again moving to a more usual occupation for itself in recent months of sales of the euro and purchases of the dollar. Today, the news background is unlikely to help the euro finish the day without a loss.

Sales targets:

1.1097 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1045 - 200.0% Fibonacci

Purchase targets:

1.1324 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair remains at the stage of building a downtrend trend. The signal from the MACD was formed downward. Therefore, I recommend selling the euro with the targets of 1.1097 and 1.1045, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% in Fibonacci. A restrictive order is recommended to be placed above the level of 76.4% Fibonacci with an unsuccessful attempt to break through which led to a new decrease in the instrument.

GBP / USD pair

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On May 27, the GBP/USD pair lost 30 basis points. Since the situation in the UK is not yet resolved, the markets continue to be unprepared for buying the sterling pound. Even if you do not take into account the situation with Brexit and the resignation of Theresa May, the economic situation in the United Kingdom leaves much to be desired. The investment climate is zero, many well-known companies, whose production is located in Britain, want to move it out of the country. The pound has been falling for several years in a row but how the Brexit will it end is not clear. Additionally, the country is losing money because of Brexit now. In such circumstances, it is difficult to expect from the market zealous purchases of a pound. The wave pattern still assumes the construction of a downward trend and its wave. The MACD indicator has given a downward signal but the news background is now neutral.

Sales targets:

1.2554 - 200.0% Fibonacci

1.2360 - 261.8% Fibonacci

Purchase targets:

1.3175 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument suggests a resumption of the instrument decline within the estimated wave c. Thus, I still recommend selling the pound now with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.2554 and 1.2360, which corresponds to 200.0% and 261.8% Fibonacci. In small amounts at first and in the case of new headlines that will support the dollar, it will be possible to increase sales.

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EUR / USD plan for the European session on May 28. Euro buyers still have a chance to resume growth

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The upward momentum in the pair is slowing down, but there is still hope for its continuation. To do this, you need to get above the resistance of 1.1196, where the demand for the euro will increase. This will lead to an update of the highs of 1.1218 and 1.1243, where the upper limit of the current ascending channel is located. In the event of a decline in the euro against the background of weak data on lending and consumer confidence, support will be provided by the area of 1.1170. But to open long positions from it, it is best when the false breakdown is formed. I recommend buying EUR/USD for a rebound only after testing the minimum of 1.1143.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

False breakdown and a decline below the resistance level of 1.1196 will be a signal to open short positions in euros. The main task for the first half of the day will be to return to a major support level of 1.1170, which will increase the pressure on the pair and will lead to an update of the minimum of 1.1143, where I recommend fixing the profit. With a scenario of good fundamental data and an increase in consumer confidence in the Eurozone, it is best to return to short positions in EUR/USD pair after updating the maximum of 1.1218 or to rebound from a larger level of 1.1243.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted just below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a probable return to the market of euro sellers.

Bollinger bands

In case of euro growth in the first half of the day, the upward trend may be limited by the upper limit of the indicator in the region of 1.1200.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review for GBP/USD pair on May 28: The forecast for the "Regression Channels" system. We need a second referendum or parliamentary

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -10.8979

In the case of the technical picture of the sterling pound, everything is much compared to the euro. The pound/dollar pair corrected to the moving average then rebounded from it. The Heiken Ashi indicator turned down and the downward movement resumed. However, from a fundamental point of view, everything remains extremely confusing. Half a year ago, everyone expected Brexit to take place on time (March 29) and this epic would be ended. Now, when two "extra" months have passed, it can be said that the country hasn't come close to getting out of the jurisdiction of Brussels one iota. Moreover, Theresa May will retire anyway. The current parliament showed only that it is not able to reach agreement on the most important issue for Great Britain in the past 10 years. Even the country's two main parties, Labor and Conservatives, could not agree at the time when this agreement was needed. First of all, by him, in order to maintain his credibility in the eyes of the electorate. The subsequent local and European Parliament elections showed perfectly what the disagreements between themselves and the inability to come to a common denominator cost both parties. Just yesterday, Labor leader Jeremy Corbin announced the need for a second referendum in order for the population to decide the fate of Brexit. Also, Corbin said that the situation can be saved by early parliamentary elections. Just yesterday, Labor leader Jeremy Corbin announced the need for a second referendum in order for the population to decide on the fate of Brexit. Also, Corbin said that the situation can be saved by early parliamentary elections.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2634

S2 - 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2695

R2 - 1.2756

R3 - 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has completed an upward correction. Thus, it is now recommended to resume sales of the sterling pound with targets of 1.2634 and 1.2573.

Long positions are recommended to be considered only after the pair has been fixed above the movement with targets of 1.2756 and 1.2817. However, the bulls remain fairly weak at the moment.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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China does not want to devalue the yuan: AUD and NZD get a chance for corrective growth

The likelihood of a short-term trade agreement between China and the US has declined, as the Trump administration is considering banning the sale of US technology to a large number of Chinese companies. In turn, Beijing refuses to resume negotiations when such threats arise. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said that China could devalue its currency in order to smooth the impact of higher US trade duties. However, is it beneficial for China?

Most likely, concerns about a significant devaluation of the RMB as one of the retaliatory measures are exaggerated. Of course, such a move can mitigate the effects of higher tariffs for exporters, but it can bring even more problems than benefits. The People's Bank of China (NBK) has already made certain changes to the yuan market value formula when the first tariff increase from 10% to 25% occurred and both deputy heads of the NBK Liu Guoqiang and Pan Gunshen recently spoke publicly, promising a stable yuan.

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There are other reasons not to assume a weakening of the yuan, particularly the likelihood of growing internal panic and capital outflows, which in the end could provoke a financial crisis and weaken the fundamental indicators of the Chinese economy. A weaker currency will undermine China's efforts to internationalize the yuan, which is clearly not in the plans of the country's leadership.

Thus, China's response will most likely be selective, which will not be detrimental to exports. As a result, stable exports also mean stable imports, which gives some support to the main suppliers of raw materials to China, including Australia and New Zealand.

AUD/USD pair

Signals from the RBA indicate the regulator's willingness to cut the rate by a quarter percent at the next meeting in June. This forecast is generally supported by markets that focus on expanding the yield spread in favor of the USD, which makes it possible to predict a decrease in the AUD against the dollar over the coming weeks.

At the same time, the main macroeconomic indicators are far from being considered negative. The growth rate of wages in Q1 of 2.3% y/y is quite sufficient to count on price increases, as well as trade balance and current account surplus. The PMI in the manufacturing sector is surely above 50p and GDP growth rates do not give rise to fears of a recession.

The main factor that can lead to a decrease in the RBA rate is low inflation. Very low rates of construction and a weak housing market require lower mortgage rates. Moreover, if housing prices stabilize, then after some delay inflation may begin to stabilize. In turn, this will reduce the threat of a rate cut.

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Until the end of the week, data on new home sales in April, the number of new building permits and private sector lending will be published. Any improvement in performance relative to March is able to support the AUD in favor of retracement and technical factors.

The AUD/USD pair has formed support at 0.6860/70 and has good chances to seize the moment and roll back a little higher. The immediate goal is 0.70 and the movement may develop to 0.7070/80 but the achievement of this level should be supported by new positive factors.

NZD/USD pair

The coming week will be devoted to issues of financial stability and budget prospects. Today, RBNZ will present a semi-annual report on financial stability. A little later, the business forecast from ANZ will be released. On Thursday, the Treasury report on the budget is scheduled, then on Friday, ANZ will provide new consumer confidence data. The RBNZ will provide private sector lending.

The decrease in the RBNZ on May 8 was a response to a slowdown in GDP growth and low inflation, which in the first quarter was only 1.5% y/y. It is still too early to expect a recovery in the consumer sector after the rate cut. Expectations from the Treasury report are rather negative since tax revenues are expected to decline.

Kiwi currently has no clear direction. The three-month decline period has been completed and the support level of 0.6427 was not reached. Its chance for corrective growth has increased. Kiwi will trade sideways and corrective growth may stop at 0.6575/80 zone while waiting for the Treasury report.

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Investors are expecting the release of important economic data this week: we expect range-bound movement to continue for

According to the presented forecasts, it is assumed that the US economy will reduce the growth rate to 3.1% in the first quarter of this year from 3.2% a year earlier. In principle, if the values turn out to be exactly that, it is unlikely to have a negative impact on the local stock market since investors logically believe that a slowdown in economic growth will force the Fed to think about the beginning of lower interest rates. On the other hand, if the numbers are better than expected, positive and will stimulate market interest in the shares of US companies.

However, the negative for global markets in this situation may be the publication of the values of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in China, which suggest a decrease to 49.9 points from 50.1 points. If the forecast is confirmed, this may cause a new wave of sales in the markets.

Another important data coming out this week will have to have a direct impact on the dynamics of the US dollar. These are the values of the basic index of personal consumption expenditure (RFE), as well as figures on income and expenditure of Americans for the month of April. It is assumed that the data will show a positive trend in monthly terms. If they really show it, we can expect a local growth of the US dollar, as the published values of the indicators may strengthen the expectation that the Fed will continue to wait and not lower interest rates in the near future. This possibility is the main factor influencing the dynamics exchange rate of the American currency.

Summing up, we note that the dollar may receive support after the release of possibly strong US GDP data, as well as after the publication of positive values of the basic index of personal consumption expenditure (RFE) and figures for income and expenditure. However, if they disappoint then the dollar may be under local pressure.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading below 1.1185 in the wake of expectations. Perhaps new stimulus measures from the ECB, as well, as the publication of important economic data from China and the US will be released this week. If the pair consolidates below 1.1185, it may continue to fall to 1.1125.

The GBP/USD pair on the wave of the government crisis in Britain remains under pressure. It has significant potential to fall first to 1.2620 and then to 1.2575.

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Review EUR / USD. May 28th The forecast for the system "Regression Channels". We expect a resumption of the downward trend

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

SSY: 29.4535

Monday, May 27, ended logically enough - a downward correction to the moving average line. No important macroeconomic reports were published in the States or the European Union on this day, so the traders had nothing to respond to. But today will be extremely important, from our point of view, to determine the future trend for the euro/dollar pair. Since no macroeconomic statistics are also planned for today, traders will rely on their own trading forecasts for trading techniques when making trading decisions. And, accordingly, if the EUR / USD pair manages to overcome the moving today, this will mean that traders are still looking to the downside. Based on this, it will be possible to expect not only the resumption of the downward trend, which still persists in 2019 without any complaints, but also updates the latest prices lows. The price rebound from the MA can provoke a resumption of the upward movement, however, traders now do not clearly want to buy the pair, especially without fundamental support. On the other hand, bulls remain extremely weak, and the market is clearly not set up to purchase Eurocurrency in a longer term than intraday. Thus, there is no new information on the trade wars between the United States, EU and China.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1169

S2 - 1.1139

S3 - 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1,1200

R2 - 1.1230

R3 - 1.1261

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has begun to be adjusted, and this correction may develop into a full-fledged movement downwards. Thus, buy orders with targets at 1.1230 and 1.1261, but in small lots, are still relevant, since both linear regression channels are still directed downward, and only in the case of a rebound, the price will move.

It is recommended to consider selling orders for the euro / dollar pair only after fixing the price below the moving with targets 1.1139 and 1.1108.

In addition to the technical picture, we should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Trading plan for EUR / USD and GBP / USD for 05/28/2019

Although the Memorial Day was celebrated in the United States yesterday, the dollar was able to unexpectedly strengthen its position in the absence of American traders. Everybody is shouting about the fact that the matter is in Austria and Italy, which have begun to stir up the water. Thus, in Austria, a political scandal continues, hyped by the German media due to the fact that the former Vice-Chancellor promised to support allegedly Russian entrepreneurs. It came to the point that the parliament passed a vote of no confidence in the government and the chancellor. Although the Chancellor himself even earlier announced the dissolution of the ruling coalition, which already implies going to early elections. Italy, on the other hand, continues to be afraid of exceeding the permissible level of budget deficit this time, in order to reduce the unemployment rate from 10.2% to 5.0%. If Italy goes to such a serious crime against the will of Germany, then penalties will be imposed on it, and it also threatens to worsen the situation with the servicing of public debt, which carries a threat to the entire euro area. And although these reasons look quite logical and pretty, they do not give an answer to the most interesting question - why did the pound weaken more than the single European currency?

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Apparently, we are witnessing a gradual realization that Brexit will be fun and festive, that is, without any deal, with unpredictable consequences. The fact that this is not good for the economy of the United Kingdom is obvious. But for the European Union, the outcome is quite difficult to predict. Yes, Jean-Claude Juncker beat his heel many times on his chest and swore on blood that Europe had already prepared for this parade of all the armed forces. Like, they took such a bunch of regulations that there would be no negative consequences. However, these are just words, and how it will be in practice, the question is quite interesting. So while in the UK, they are engaged in such a fascinating business as the selection of a new prime minister from among the eurosceptics, investors gradually come to understand that little will change from this, and everything goes according to the worst case scenario. Especially if the new prime minister will be Boris Johnson, who openly advocates Brexit without a divorce agreement.

Although no one is resting today, the macroeconomic calendar is practically empty. Thus, we can pay attention to data on consumer lending in Europe. The growth rate of which should accelerate from 3.2% to 3.3%. On the other side of the Atlantic, S & P / Case-Shiller data on housing prices are published. The growth rates of which can slow down from 3.0% to 2.8%. But the data itself is not so important, and the maximum that they can do is to somewhat hold back the negative due to the risk of an uncontrolled Brexit.

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The euro / dollar currency pair shows a recovery after a sharp rise, where the quotation went down again to the level of 1.1180. It can be probably assume amplitude fluctuations within this value, with the amendment of 20-30 points.

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The currency pair pound/dollar after the corrective movement, went into the recovery phase, rolling back to the limit of 1.2680 which probably suggest a temporary stagnation in the range of 1.2660 / 1.2700.

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AUD / USD: Aussie beat himself

Exactly in a week, the next meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will take place on June 4. This meeting will not be "passing". According to its results, members of the regulator can reduce the interest rate or announce such a step. The Australian dollar is under pressure from this factor is not the first day. Last week, the head of the RBA, Philip Low, stated that the issue of monetary policy easing will be considered at the June meeting. According to him, low rates "will support the labor market and contribute to the growth of inflation to the target level." Such dovish rhetoric low surprised the market, after which, the Australian updated the annual minimum and reached 0.6860. Moreover, rumors appeared on the market that the RBA will not stop there and this issue will return for several more times until the end of the year.

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Thus, according to a published forecast from one of the four largest banks in Australia, Westpac, the Australian regulator will reduce the interest rate three times this year and in the fall it will be at around 0.75%. Currency strategists of the bank expect rate cuts in June, August, and November. After that, the rates will remain unchanged until the end of next year. It is worth noting that analysts of this bank predicted a rate cut back in February when the Reserve Bank of Australia took a rather optimistic position regarding the growth prospects of the national economy. At that time, Westpac was skeptical against the backdrop of Lo's vigorous rhetoric and the emerging progress in negotiations between Beijing and Washington.

Now, the situation has changed dramatically. First, the opinion of Westpac is shared by other large banks of the world, particularly the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the Royal Bank of Canada. However, in their opinion, the RBA will reduce the rate twice in summer and autumn. Secondly, the head of the Australian Central Bank himself now does not deny such a scenario, at least in the context of a one-time rate cut in June.

Despite such gloomy prospects, the AUD/USD pair formed a price bottom last week and, pushing off from multi-month lows, almost came back to the key level of 0.70. What is the reason for such behavior, which seems to be illogical at first glance? In my opinion, the Australian "beat himself", yielding to panic. "Aussie" actually played a one-time reduction in the rate, which by and large, was expected a long time ago. As for the further steps of the RBA, the market still began to doubt. At least, none of the regulator's members had yet voiced such soft intentions. Therefore, the double-triple rate cut scenario still looks implausible. In other words, the market overdid it, putting aggressive rates of monetary policy easing into current price quotes.

There are other factors that keep the Aussie afloat. First, it is a commodity market. The cost of iron ore, a key raw material for the Australian economy, jumped by 2.5% exceeding $100 per ton in the second half of May for the first time in the last 5 years. Such dynamics can be continued taking into account the factors that contributed to the price strengthening.

Thus, there were interruptions in the supply of ore in Australia and Brazil at the beginning of the year. It all started with the fact that in one of the Brazilian states there was a breakthrough of the dam of the mine Corrego de Feijao, which is owned by Vale. The waste of the mining and processing complex flooded the nearby municipality, resulting in more than 200 deaths. A Brazilian court froze the company's assets to more than four billion dollars. Thereby, covering the potential costs of compensation, salaries, and other unforeseen expenses. After that, the cost of iron ore increased sharply, as one of the "three whales" of the market de facto dropped out of the game. The Brazilian authorities have already calculated that the volume of ore production may be reduced by 10% this year and the forecast for 2020 remains "so far unclear".

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In addition, the price of iron ore is growing due to the introduction of American sanctions against the Iranian metallurgical sector. Iran exported about 14 million tons of iron ore last year, which is about 1% of the world's total sea shipments of this raw material. This figure should have grown to 20 million tons this year amid Vale's problems. Now, according to experts, there is a high probability that the supply of ore from Iran will be close to zero until the sanctions expire.

Thus, the growth of the commodity market, good data on the growth of consumer confidence in Australia, as well as the continued strengthening of the Australian labor market level out traders' concerns about the future steps of the RBA. Of course, problems with the growth of inflation and the country's GDP have not gone away and it is these factors that will form the basis of the June rate cut. However, the RBA may well limit itself to this step, then taking a defensive position, waiting for the outcome of the American-Chinese negotiating "thriller".

In technical terms, the support level for the AUD/USD pair is the Tenkan-sen line, which corresponds to the mark of 0.6905. Yet, the resistance level is still the price of 0.7000, which also coincides with the Kijun-Sen line on the daily chart. Taking into account the fact that the rate reduction in June has already been actually won back by the market, it will not exert strong downward pressure. Therefore, Aussie will soon follow; Firstly, the dynamics of the commodity market (iron ore) and secondly, the dynamics of the US-China trade relations.

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placing trade orders (May 28)

Over the past trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed volatility below the daily average of 80 points, resulting in a gradual recovery of short positions. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the corrective movement from the level of 1.2620 reached the value of 1.2746, where the echoes of the range level 1.2770 restrained the buyers and as a fact, a gradual recovery. Considering the graph in general terms, we see quite interesting trends. The primary phase, which is also a key, is going downwards. Then there is a certain lateral fluctuation in the calculation of 10 months of consideration, and closes the current fluctuation phase, which draws progress to the lower limit of the 10-month fluctuation. Putting it all together, we understand that if we start from the main trend, the focus now will be on the value of 1.2500, which is the pivot of the 10-month swing, and in case of its breakdown, the downward trend will continue its march. In order to visually see all these cycles, let us look at the GBPUSD D1 trading chart. On the other hand, the news background didn't have any statistics on the UK and the United States due to the weekends. If you roll back a little and return to the recent growth of the British currency, we see that unjustified emotions in connection with the imminent resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May led to growth, but understanding of all that is happening is not far off. There were already the first comments of possible candidates for the post of the leader. United Kingdom Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt said that an attempt to leave the EU without an agreement on conditions will require new general elections in the UK and will turn into a "political suicide" for the ruling Conservative Party, because its loss will be inevitable.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have only the S&P/ Case-Shiller housing price index in the United States, where they are waiting for a decline from 3.0% to 2.8%. The news, of course, is not in favor of the dollar. Yet, there is nothing good about the pound in the general information background.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation has gone to the phase of gradual recovery of short positions, slowing down in the area of 1.2670. It is likely to assume a temporary bump in the range of 1.2660 / 1.2710, where, in the event of further recovery, it will lower us to the level of 1.2620, and then analyze the behavior of the quotes for price fixing.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- Positions to buy can be considered, in the case of a delay in fixing the price is higher than 1.2770.

- Positions to sell is possible to consider in case of price fixing lower than 1.2660, with the prospect of a move towards 1.2620.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators on all TFs have turned downward again due to an attempt to restore short positions.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(May 28, based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 37 points. If the negative background of the pound remains and the inertial move resumes, the volatility may increase.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 *; 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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GBP/USD to gain bullish momentum? May 28, 2019

GBP has been the weaker currency in the pair with USD recently, so the price resided below 1.2700 area after certain retest of 1.30 with a daily close.

Brexit had a great impact on Britain's main political parties in the European Parliament elections, with both Conservatives and Labour scoring their worst results in decades as voters opted for politicians with clear pro- and anti-European Union messages. Ms. May has finally given in to pressure from her party and has recently announced that she would quit. But there's little indication that the election will break the deadlock in the Parliament. Conservatives rejected May's deal because it stayed too close to the EU.

Today, the UK High Street Lending report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 39.3k from the previous figure of 40.0k. Tomorrow, the Nationwide HPI is expected to decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.4%.

On the USD side, China is expected to increase tariffs on US imports worth $60 billion in retaliation for the US decision to hike duties on Chinese imports. Thus, the trade war between the world's two largest economies has escalated that threatens to damage the global economy. The US Prelim GDP report is to be published on Thursday which is expected to decrease to 3.1% from the previous value of 3.2%. Ahead of it, USD is expected to struggle to gain momentum in the process.

Today, the US HPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%, while the S&P Composite index is expected to increase to 3.1% from the previous value of 3.0%. At the same time, the CB Consumer Confidence is expected to increase to 130.1 from the previous figure of 129.2.

As of the current scenario, the British pound is weaker with the upcoming economic reports and political uncertainty in the country. So, it is expected to lose momentum against USD. At the same time, the US dollar is not in the best shape as well because of the rising trade tensions and increased tariffs of Chinese products which is expected to impact the consumer spending and retail prices in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has recently rejected off the 1.2750 area after certain bullish pressure and the non-volatile bearish trend pressure. Though the dynamic levels are quite far from the current position, the price below 1.30 area with a daily close would indicate further bearish momentum in the coming days with target towards 1.2500 support area.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for May 28, 2019 for the currency pairs EUR / USD and GBP / USD

On Monday, due to the weekend in the United States and Britain, the market which was narrow for both currencies, moved down.

The pair GBP / USD made an upward movement, but after reaching the pullback level of 1.2740 (yellow dotted line), it went down.

The EUR / USD pair moved upwards, but after reaching the resistance line of 1.1217 (white thin line), it began to move down.

On Tuesday, strong calendar news comes out at 14.00 (USD) Universal time.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the price will continue to move down with the first target of 1.1175 - the pullback level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 2 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, we are waiting for the continuation of the upward movement. The first upper target of 1.2740 is the pullback level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line). The second upper target of 1.2823 is the pullback level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

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EURUSD: Growth under pressure.

US - China trade disputes looks like a long-term problem.

Otherwise, there is no strong news.

EURUSD: The euro is still held within the beginning of the upward movement.

We are ready to buy euro at the breakthrough of 1.1220.

In the case of a full turn downwards, we sell from 1.1108.

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Trading plan for Gold for May 28, 2019

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Technical outlook:

Gold seems to be breaking out of triangle consolidation as presented on the 4H chart here, which might terminate around $1290.00/1291.00 levels. The yellow metal has been pushing sideways since several weeks now, and we might see yet another spike towards $1290.00 levels, before it resumes lower. Ideally, prices should remain below $1310 levels, if the triangle consolidation holds true. Furthermore, a break below the consolidation support line, which is passing through $1270/71 levels around this time, would accelerate the drop towards $1250 and $1230 levels. Trading point of view, it is safe to initiate short positions between $1285/90 levels, with risk just above immediate resistance at $1303 levels, targeting lower. If prices manage to break above $1303, we would re-look the wave counts and trade setups. Also note that fibonacci 0.618 resistance is seen passing through $1290 levels, hence a bearish reversal remains probable there.

Trading plan:

Short @ 1285/90, stop @ 1304, target @ 1250/30

Good luck!

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USD/JPY to gain momentum ahead US GDP Data? May 28, 2019

The USD/JPY pair has been volatile residing below 110.00 area with a daily close. Though certain bullish pressure was observed yesterday but it was not sufficient enough to call for deeper pullbacks.

The US durable goods orders fell -2.1% during April. The Orders have been influenced by volatile aircraft orders in recent months, and this was again the case. The core capex orders conjointly slipped 0.9%, and have slowed to 2.5% year-over-year. Overall, producing activity ought to still be subdued in returning months among sharp trade contacts and slow world growth. Home sales index has fallen during April. The Preliminary GDP of the USA is expected to be published this. The previous reading was 3.2%. Economists expect a decrease to 3.1%. The pending home sales index is also expected to drop from 3.8% to 0.9% while personal spending is expected to fall from 0.9% to 0.2%. The trade tension has been the most important factor that hammers the economic growth of U.S. China is expected to raise tariffs on $60 billion in US imports in retaliation for the US decision to increase duties on Chinese imports, escalating a trade war between the world's two largest economies that threatens to damage the global economy.

Japan's Gross Domestic Product was impressive at first glance, with Japan's economy growing 2.1% quarter-over-quarter annualized. Household spending has fallen at a 0.4% pace and business investment constricted at a 1.2% pace. In Japan's Domestic Sector, the main sources of strength were a residential and public investment. The key mover behind the headline growth figures was the large 17.2% quarter-over-quarter annualized fall in imports, an indicator of still subdued domestic demand. Although the consumer spending growing moderately the government is still on track to raise the consumption tax in October 2019.

Today, the Japanese SPPI report was published. It indicated a fall to 0.9% from 1.1%. The BOJ Core CPI report is about to be published. The previous figure was 0.5%.This week, Tokyo core CPI will be published along with the Speech of BOJ Governor. Japan's Unemployment Rate report is going to be released as well. Analysts anticipate a decrease to 2.4% from 2.5%.

The publication of the US GDP data and its upbeat results might create bullish momentum in the USD/JPY pair. Volatility is also expected in this pair due to the trade war between China and the US.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price managed to push higher after pushing lower towards 109.20 support area which is expected to lead the price towards the dynamic level resistance of 20 EMA which resides at 110.00 area. The price has successfully formed Bullish Regular Divergence. As the price remains below 110.50 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue but a certain pullback is likely to occur.

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Trading plan for EURUSD for May 28, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EURUSD pair reversed from 1.1200/10 levels yesterday, as expected. Please make note that the single currency pair is still in the sell zone of resistance downtrend line presented here. Until the zones change, we shall remain bearish and look to the target below 1.1107 levels. Also note that yesterday's bearish reversal was quite important e.g. it came around the fibonacci 0.618 and trend line convergence as seen on the chart here. Intraday pullback rallies should remain well capped below 1.1215 levels, as potential high seems to be in place now. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1260 and it is also the line in sand for bears to remain in control. Interim support remain at 1.1107 levels, which is expected to break down anytime soon. Please, be sure that the short term trend line displayed here was broken earlier, and the backside could provide the necessary support to continue rally. Hence, we shall reconsider the position around 1.1140 levels, which is the backside of trend line, highlighted with an arrow here.

Trading plan:

Remain short for now with stop at 1.1260 and target 1.0900.

Good luck!

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Forecast for AUD / USD for May 28, 2019

AUD / USD

Yesterday, the price touched the resistance of the embedded line of the daily price channel. Perhaps, there will be a downward price reversal, but technical indicators for such a reversal have not yet indicated. The Marlin oscillator on the daily scale chart shows strong growth, slightly declined on the four-hour scale, but the signal line still remains in the zone of positive numbers. A steady downward situation will arise after the price leaves the MACD line on H4 (0.6898), which automatically sends the Marlin signal line to H4 in the negative zone. The aim of the reduction is the support of the nested line in the price channel, around 0.6825.

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The upward movement may continue. For this, the price needs to consolidate above yesterday's high, then the goal of 0.7020 will be opened - resistance of the nested line of the price channel and the MACD line of the daily timeframe. This scenario may not be fully realized due to a sufficiently high goal against the background of the strengthening of the American dollar. Nevertheless, the market is capable of surprising.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 28.05.2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair bounce did not last long as the first technical resistance located at the level of 1.2755 capped it. The market reversed and now is testing the technical support at the level of 1.2668. The momentum went back to the negative territory, so the odds for the move down are increasing. In a case of the down move continuation, the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2605. The larger timeframe trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3009

WR2 - 1.2910

WR1 - 1.2801

Weekly Pivot - 1.2631

WS1 - 1.2607

WS2 - 1.2502

WS3 - 1.2401

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to sell the up move near the technical resistance around the level of 1.2755. The larger timeframe trend is still down, so the trade at the short term timeframe will be in line with the downtrend.

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BITCOIN to surpass $9000 with target towards $10,000. May 27, 2019

Bitcoin has caught the bullish momentum which pushed the price higher towards $9000 before showing certain throwbacks. The bullish pressure is still quite strong. Presently, the price is aiming to reach the psychological area of $10,000.

Additionally, BTC starts to consolidate in the short-term around $8,700. Some are sure that the cryptocurrency market will continue to print higher as the week elapses. Bitcoin suddenly broke over, shooting past $8,200, $8,400, and $8,600 in rapid succession. Initially, though, some were wary that this was a fakeout, designed to trap bulls into thinking there was going to be a strong weekly close above $8,400. $8,400 is, of course, where this market topped in a bear market rally in mid-2018, and where BTC double topped in early-May.

Bitcoin touched $8,940 a couple of hours ago before a slight pullback. It is the highest price BTC has traded at for over a year. The last time Bitcoin was anywhere near $9,000 was in early May 2018. Daily volume has cranked up to almost $30 billion and BTC market capitalization is at $155 billion, more than the entire crypto cap was just two months ago in March.

The price formed certain throwback but the bullish pressure was quite strong. It managed to regain momentum to push higher towards $9000 area. The price was non-volatile after the push from $8000 area. As the price breaks above $9000 area with a daily close, further bullish momentum with the target towards $10,000 is expected. As the price remains above $8000 area with a daily close, the impulsive bullish momentum is expected to sustain further.

SUPPORT: 8000, 8400, 8500

RESISTANCE: 9000, 9250, 9500, 10000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 28.05.2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair failed to break through the dynamic trendline resistance located around the level of 1.1215 and reversed towards the level of 1.1174 which is technical support for the price. The market conditions are now overbought and the momentum is pointing to the downside, so the indicators support the short-term bearish outlook. The line in the sand for bulls is the support at the level of 1.1167 and any breakout lower will accelerate the sell-off towards the level of 1.1111 again.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1355

WR2 - 1.2080

WR1 - 1.1254

Weekly Pivot - 1.1180

WS1 - 1.1146

WS2 - 1.1076

WS3 - 1.1043

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to sell the up move near the technical resistance around the level of 1.2020. The larger timeframe trend is still down, so the trade at the short term timeframe will be in line with the downtrend.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 28.05.2019

Crypto Industry News:

One of the largest peer-to-peer cryptocurrencies, LocalBitcoins.com, has banned users living in Iran, according to information published on the company's website.

The source previously informed the financial media in an e-mail that the impulse to limit Iranian transactions was to comply with financial regulations in Finland, where the headquarters of LocalBitcoins.com is located. In addition, the stock exchanges allegedly cut off users from Iran because of sanctions previously imposed on other exchanges by the United States.

Coinbase and Binance cryptocurrency exchanges do not currently support users residing in Iran as well.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair might have completed wave (4) and now the market is unfolding the wave (5) to the upside, but the momentum behind the move up is still low. The target for this wave is seen at the level of $304. For now, the market is consolidating the recent gains in a narrow range between the levels of $278.14 - $263.42 as the market participants wait for the breakout.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $321.20

WR2 - $292.77

WR1 - $283.99

Weekly Pivot - $254.33

WS1 - $241.65

WS2 - $213.82

WS3 - $203.55

Trading Recommendations:

The best trading strategy in the current market conditions is to buy the local pull-back as wave 4 is in progress in anticipation of the wave 5 to the upside. Please pay attention to the technical resistance at the level of $278.14 as any breakout above this level is bullish. On the other hand, any violation of the level of $226.17 will accelerate the sell-off towards the next technical support at the level of $212.12.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 28.05.2019

Crypto Industry News:

The new cryptographic exchange platform, in which Yahoo Japan owns a large share, will be launched after more than a year of development.

A new platform, called Taotao, announced on Twitter on Sunday that it will be launched on Thursday, May 30 at noon local time. According to the exchange website, Taotao will offer a mobile application next to its internet platform and will offer Bitcoin and Ethereum trading at the time of launch. The company will also provide leverage to interested traders, adding three additional cryptos to the available options: XRP, Litecoina and Bitcoin Cash.

Taotao is regulated as a virtual currency exchange company within the Financial Services Agency. This early registration takes place through the agency's previous BitARG authorized agency, in which Yahoo Japan has bought a 40% stake in March. During this time Nikkei Asian Review announced that Yahoo Japan has taken part in the creation of a new platform using BitARG technology.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has been consolidating the recent gains in a narrow zone between the levels of $8,919 - $8,621. According to the present Elliott Wave scenario, this is the consolidation during the wave 4 of the overall wave progression. It means there is still one more wave to the upside to be made, wave 5. The larger time frame trend remains up. On the shorter timeframes, please keep an eye at the level of $8,241 as any violation of this level will invalidate the current impulsive scenario.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10467

WR2 - $9524

WR1 - $9190

Weekly Pivot - $8239

WS1 - $7860

WS2 - $6970

WS3 - $6557

Trading Recommendations:

The best trading strategy in the current market conditions is to buy the local pull-back as wave 4 is in progress in anticipation of the wave 5 to the upside. Please pay attention to the technical support at the level of $8,241 as any breakout below this level invalidated the impulsive scenario.

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Forecast for GBP / USD pair on May 28, 2019

GBP / USD pair

On Monday, the price reached the Fibonacci correction level of 23.6% as indicated on the daily chart. This level coincided with the MACD line on the four-hour chart, which together became an irresistible resistance for the price. The pound closed the day with a decrease of 33 points. The price before is not very strong support to 1.2660 at least August 15, 2018, in the present condition. Thus, overcoming it opens the way from 1.2530 – at least December 14, 2018. The US economic data can help this price, where the house price index for March is expected to increase by 0.2%. Data from the Conference Board on consumer confidence index for May is projected to increase from 129.2 to 130.1.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, May 28, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Private Loans y/y, M3 Money Supply y/y, German Import Prices m/m, and German GfK Consumer Climate. The US will also publish the economic data such as CB Consumer Confidence, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, and HPI m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1271. Strong Resistance: 1.1263. Original Resistance: 1.1249. Inner Sell Area: 1.1235. Target Inner Area: 1.1202. Inner Buy Area: 1.1170. Original Support: 1.1156. Strong Support: 1.1142. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1134. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, May 28, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Core CPI y/y, SPPI y/y and the US will publish some economic data such as CB Consumer Confidence, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, and HPI m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3 : 110.11. Resistance. 2: 109.90. Resistance. 1: 109.68. Support. 1: 109.41. Support. 2: 109.20. Support. 3: 108.98. (Disclaimer)

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Forecast for EUR / USD for May 28, 2019

EUR / USD

On Monday, in the absence of American traders in the market, the euro was trading in a narrow range, bounded below by the MACD line, above the Fibonacci 100.0% on the daily scale chart. Today, in the Asian session, the euro has taken a move in the direction of less resistance, which is, downwards. On the daily chart, the price has made its way under the MACD line, while the Marlin oscillator moves to the zone of negative numbers.

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On the four-hour chart, the price is also under the MACD line, while Marlin attacks the border with the territory of "bears".

Thus, we are waiting for the price to decline under the Fibonacci level of 110.0% (1.1155) and further decline to 123.6% at 1.1075.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for May 28

Forecast for May 28:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1269, 1.1248, 1.1217, 1.1206, 1.1191, 1.1167, 1.1154 and 1.1136. Here, the price forms the potential initial conditions for the upward movement of May 23. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 1.1191. In this case, the goal is 1.1206, wherein consolidation isn near this level. The price passage of the noise range 1.1206 - 1.1217 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 1.1248. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1269. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1167 - 1.1154. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.1136. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of May 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1191 Take profit: 1.1206

Buy 1.1218 Take profit: 1.1246

Sell: 1.1167 Take profit: 1.1155

Sell: 1.1153 Take profit: 1.1136

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2811, 1.2737, 1.2693, 1.2612, 1.2553, 1.2478 and 1.2428. Here, the price is still in equilibrium: a downward structure of May 21, as well as the formation of a potential of May 23. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 1.2612. Here, the target is the level of 1.2553. The breakdown of which must be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 1.2478. We consider the level of 1.2428 to be a potential value for the bottom. Upon reaching this level, we expect a consolidation in the range of 1.2478 - 1.2428, as well as a departure to a correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2693 - 1.2737. The breakdown of the latter value will have to form an upward movement. Here, the target is the level of 1.2811.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2693 Take profit: 1.2735

Buy: 1.2738 Take profit: 1.2810

Sell: 1.2612 Take profit: 1.2555

Sell: 1.2550 Take profit: 1.2478

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0086, 1.0062, 1.0045, 1.0023, 1.0010, 0.9991 and 0.9978. Here, we are following the formation of the downward structure of May 22. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range of 1.0023 - 1.0010. In this case, the target is the level of 0.9991. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9978. After reaching which, we expect a consolidation.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.0045 - 1.0062. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is the level of 1.0086. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the development of the downward structure of May 22. We expect the registration of large initial conditions.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 1.0045 Take profit: 1.0060

Buy : 1.0062 Take profit: 1.0086

Sell: 1.0010 Take profit: 0.9991

Sell: 0.9990 Take profit: 0.9978

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.21, 109.94, 109.73, 109.36, 109.14, 108.98 and 108.51. Here, the price forms the medium-term initial conditions for the downward cycle of May 21. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 109.36. In this case, the goal is 109.14, wherein consolidation is near this level. The price pass of the noise range of 109.14 - 108.98 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 108.51. Near this level, we expect a consolidation and a possible rollback to the correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 109.73 - 109.94. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 110.21. This level is a key support for the downward cycle.

The main trend: the formation of medium-term initial conditions for the downward cycle of May 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.73 Take profit: 109.92

Buy: 109.95 Take profit: 110.20

Sell: 109.36 Take profit: 109.15

Sell: 108.98 Take profit: 108.51

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3611, 1.3556, 1.3534, 1.3503, 1.3474, 1.3428, 1.3409, 1.3387 and 1.3355. Here, the price forms the medium-term initial conditions for the upward cycle of May 22. Continuation of the development of this structure is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3474. In this case, the first target is 1.3503. The breakdown of which, in turn, will lead to a movement to the level of 1.3534, wherein consolidation is near this level. The price passage of the noise range 1.3534 - 1.3556 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is the level of 1.3611.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3428 - 1.3409. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is the level of 1.3388. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of medium-term initial conditions for the upward cycle of May 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3474 Take profit: 1.3501

Buy : 1.3503 Take profit: 1.3534

Sell: 1.3426 Take profit: 1.3410

Sell: 1.3408 Take profit: 1.3388

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For the pair Australian dollar / US dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7013, 0.6994, 0.6965, 0.6955, 0.6941, 0.6910, 0.6897, 0.6882 and 0.6863. Here, the price forms the expressed initial conditions for the top of May 23. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown 0.6941. Here, the first goal is 0.6955, near this level is a price consolidation. The price passage of the noise range of 0.6955 - 0.6965 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is the level of 0.6994. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7013. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.6910 - 0.6897. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged movement. Here, the target is the level of 0.6882. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of May 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6941 Take profit: 0.6955

Buy: 0.6967 Take profit: 0.6992

Sell : 0.6910 Take profit : 0.6898

Sell: 0.6895 Take profit: 0.6884

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 123.29, 122.92, 122.72, 122.12, 121.76, 121.54 and 120.96. Here, the price forms the expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle of May 21. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 122.12. In this case, the goal is 121.76, wherein consolidation is near this level. Meanwhile, in the range of 121.76 - 121.54, there is a short-term downward movement. The breakdown of the last value will allow to count on the movement towards a potential target - 120.96. From this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 122.72 - 122.92. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 123.29. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the formation of medium-term initial conditions for the downward cycle of May 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 122.72 Take profit: 122.90

Buy: 122.93 Take profit: 123.25

Sell: 122.12 Take profit: 121.78

Sell: 121.74 Take profit: 121.55

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 140.18, 139.51, 139.14, 138.70, 138.36, 137.49 and 136.85. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of May 21. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the passage of the price of the noise range 138.70 - 138.36. In this case, the goal is 137.49, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 136.85. After reaching which, we expect to go into a correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 139.14 - 139.51. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 140.18. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is a local downward structure of May 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 139.15 Take profit: 139.50

Buy: 139.55 Take profit: 140.10

Sell: 138.34 Take profit: 135.55

Sell: 137.46 Take profit: 136.90

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