Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 08/29/2019 and trading recommendation

The single European currency steadily fell for three consecutive days. This is largely due to the general situation, which lies in the clear intention of the European Central Bank to find new ways to mitigate its monetary policy. At the same time, the Federal Reserve almost directly tells investors that there is no reason to lower the refinancing rate. Moreover, the banal disparity in interest rates also favors the dollar's growth. Like it or not, but the rate is 0.00% in Europe, and it is 2.25% in the United States. Well, this means that the yield on US government debt securities is significantly higher than in Europe. So it is not surprising that investors prefer the dollar rather than the single European currency.

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However, this fascinating process is not so monotonous, and from time to time there are jumps in one direction or the other on the market, which at least temporarily brings some kind of variety to the life of traders. Today there is a turn of deviations from the given scenario, and the second short-term panic will be caused by the second estimate of the United States GDP for the second quarter. The first estimate showed a slowdown in economic growth from 2.7% to 2.3%, while the second could show a slightly larger decrease, to 2.2%. Naturally, this will instantly lead to renewed discussion of an impending recession in the United States, with calls for the Federal Reserve to immediately lower the refinancing rate. So today we can safely expect the growth of the single European currency, especially since in recent days it has appeared to be somewhat oversold.

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The EUR/USD pair has been stubbornly recovering quotes since the beginning of the trading week after the impulsive jump from Friday, working out more than 80% of at the moment. The sluggish movement has returned us to the framework of the recent flat formation of 1.1066/1.1100, where the quote is now located. Considering everything that happens in general terms, we see that the recent leap has not changed the overall picture of the trend, the pair continues to run in a downward trend, having all the same points of support 1.1060 ---> 1.1000.

It is likely to assume that the movement within the specified limits of 1.1066/1.1100 will still remain for some time in the market, where, against the background of the news flow, we can expect the quotation to return to the upper limit of 1.1100-1.1115. The main move is considered after the breakdown of the given framework.

We concretize all of the above into trading signals:

• We consider long positions in terms of temporary corruption in the direction of 1.1100-1.1115, from the current coordinates.

• We consider short positions in case of price consolidation lower than 1.1060, with the prospect of a move to 1.1030-1.1000.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators relative to all the main time periods signal a further decline. At the same time, indicators in short-term temporary areas signal stagnation, varying interest.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on August 29, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

On Wednesday, the pair began to move down after being pushed off the resistance line last Tuesday. Moving down, the pair tested a strong pullback level of 50.0% - 1.2163 (blue dotted line), but could not break it down. Strong calendar news is expected at 12.30 Universal time and 14.00 Universal time (dollar).

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the price may continue to move down, with the target of 1.2156 - the lower fractal. In case of breaking through this level, going further down to the pullback level of 61.8% - 1.2127 (blue dashed line) is possible.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price may continue to move down.

An unlikely scenario is an upward movement to the resistance line 1.2288 (red bold line).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on August 29. The pound is preparing for a new fall after yesterday's statements by

To open long positions on GBP/USD is required:

The British pound tried to regain its position against the US dollar, after a major sell-off, which was associated with the British prime minister's statement about the possible suspension of Parliament. However, the bulls did not manage to go above the resistance of 1.2245, which I drew attention to in my yesterday's review. At the moment, the main task of buyers is to break through this range, as only this will provide a new impetus to the bulls with the update of highs in the area of 1.2301 and 1.2343, where I recommend to take profits. If the pressure on the pound continues, which is likely, only the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2195 will allow buyers to return to the market. Otherwise, it is best to open long positions on the rebound from a low of 1.2158.

To open short positions on GBP/USD is required:

The main task of the pound sellers is to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.2195, which will necessarily lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders of buyers below this level, and a further decrease in GBP/USD to the low of 1.2158 and 1.2123, where I recommend taking profit. Pressure on the pound will continue to be exerted by news of the likely suspension of Parliament. Only the failure of Boris Johnson's attempt to implement this measure will return the demand for the pair. In the scenario of growth in the first half of the day, it is best to count on short positions after the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.243, or sell immediately on a rebound from the weekly high in the area of 1.2301.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible continuation of the pound's fall.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound grows, the upward potential of the indicator will be limited by the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2243. A break of the lower border at 1.2195 will increase pressure on the British pound.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on August 29. Traders are preparing for a series of important fundamental data and

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday, buyers missed the support of 1.1086, which coped with its function for almost three trading sessions. However, there was no major decline due to the lack of news. At the moment, it is best to open long positions after the release of a series of reports on the countries of the eurozone, ranging from consumer confidence and ending with inflation in Germany. Good news background will help the bulls regain the level of 1.1086, which will be the first signal to open long positions in the hope of updating the resistance of 1.1115, from which sellers will return to the market. However, a further target will still be a high of 1.1151, where I recommend taking profits. If eurozone reports put pressure on the euro, which is to be expected, then it is best to consider long positions after updating the low of the month in the region of 1.1055, or on the rebound from the new support of 1.1028.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

As long as trading is below a resistance of 1.1086, the market remains on the side of euro sellers. As I noted above, the entire emphasis will be shifted to data on the eurozone, and weak reports with the formation of a false breakdown in the region of 1.1086 will be the first signal to open short positions in order to continue a downward correction to the last week's support area of 1.1055, where I recommend taking profit in the first half a day. However, the main goal of sellers will be a low of 1.1028. If the pair grows after the reports, you can consider new short positions after the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1115, or you can sell immediately for a rebound from a high of 1.1151.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the return of euro sellers to the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1075 will only increase pressure on the euro.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Indicator analysis. Daily review on August 29, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

On Wednesday, the price continued to move down. Moving down, the price tested a pullback level of 76.4% - 1.1079 (blue dashed line) and closed slightly higher - 1.1080. Today, strong calendar news is expected at 7.55 Universal time (euro), 12.30 Universal time and 14.00 Universal time (dollar). Also today, the downward movement may continue.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, a downward movement with the target of 1.1063 is possible - the support line (blue bold line). There is a chance of breaking this line down, and then continue to the next target of 1.1053, which is the lower fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, a downward movement with the target of 1.1063 is possible - the support line (blue bold line). There is a chance of breaking this line down, and then continue to the next target of 1.1053, which is the lower fractal.

The equivalent scenario is an upward rebound from the support line and an upward movement with the target of 1.1100 - a pullback level of 23.6% (yellow dashed line).

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 29/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The Santiago Stock Exchange (STE), Central Securities Depository (DCV) and Global Trade Directory (GTD) announced the creation of a new Blockchain association.

The company BNamericas informs that STE, DCV and GTD have created a consortium for creating Blockchain financial applications, which is reportedly the first of its kind in Latin America.

The agreement provides for the creation of a Blockchain business network: infrastructure to connect public clients around the world via nodes that will provide access to various applications running on the Hyperledger platform.

"Since 2017, we have been cooperating with other securities depositories around the world in the application of Blockchain to the services of our industry, to which is added a project that we are implementing with the central bank of Chile to include this technology in the issue of its financial instruments "- says the Director-General of the Central Securities Depository, Fernando Yanez.

After signing the contract, the three institutions will create a technical committee whose task will be to design the system within six months, consulting the members of the alliance. After this phase, a team of programmers will be employed to build a Blockchain-based platform in about 18 months.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair spiked down after days of trading inside of a narrow range and broke below all the local technical supports at $177.07 and $172.82. So far the sell-off has stopped at the level of $164.81 and there is a clear bullish divergence present on the market between the AO oscillator and the price. The next important technical support is seen at the level of $145.45.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $218.26

WR2 - $210.07

WR1 - $196.01

Weekly Pivot Pont - $185.93

WS1 - $171.02

WS2 - $161.63

WS3 - $146.97

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 29/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Hong Kong's pro-democratic, anti-government protest movement is stimulating a wider adoption of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

Financial portals report that political unrest in Hong Kong - which has just entered the 12th week - has prompted several local businesses and individuals to switch to non-sovereign and decentralized digital currencies. On August 26, Pricerite department store in Hong Kong announced that it would begin accepting Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum at its fourteen locations in Hong Kong. The store has indicated that it will be able to quickly convert crypto to Hong Kong dollars using the Bitcoin's Lightning Network scalability layer. In addition to traditional retailers, the cryptocurrency company Genesis Block operates 14 cryptocurrency ATMs throughout the city.

In July, Genesis Block - which it trades under the name "CoinHere" - distributed water to protesters who were paid for using international donations in Bitcoin Cash, as well as umbrellas - a symbolic reference to the 2014 umbrella revolution in this city.

The increase in interest in cryptocurrencies appears against the background of other forms of economic activism. Earlier this month, protesters began withdrawing as much money as possible from bank accounts or converting the local currency to US dollars.

This had a dual purpose, serving both as precautionary protection of their personal property and by sending a sharp warning to the Chinese authorities. What's more, it was reported in June that many of Hong Kong's tycoons - a city of 853 people with assets worth over $ 100 million - began to transfer their assets abroad.

If the protest movement fails to prevent the entry into force of the controversial Chinese extradition law, the Chinese continental authorities will have the right to demand that Hong Kong courts freeze and confiscate assets related to crimes committed on the continent.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has broken below the trendline support around the level of $9,990 after a failure to break through the upper trendline resistance around the level of $10,200. The bears were able to make a new local low at the level of $9,466 and since then the market did not bounce much. Currently, the price is trading around the level of $9,534, just above the low of the old wave W of the overall corrective cycle. Any violation of this level will lead to sell-off acceleration towards the level of $9,046.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,710

WR2 - $11,306

WR1 - $10,534

Weekly Pivot Pont - $10,091

WS1 - $9,320

WS2 - $8,854

WS3 - $8,140

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 29/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has reversed down after hitting the level of 1.2308 which is located just below the 61% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2324. The Broadening Wedge price pattern might have been completed then because the price has broken below the technical support at the level of 1.2248 and 1.2175. The whole move up is still a part of the correction, because it does not look like the beginning of a new, impulsive trend. The pair is currently testing the nearest technical support located at the level of 1.2156 in overbought market conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2616

WR2 - 1.2455

WR1 - 1.2395

Weekly Pivot Pont - 1.2226

WS1 - 1.2161

WS2 - 1.2001

WS3 - 1.1935

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2429 and it must be clearly violated. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues.

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NZD / USD: The game against the New Zealander is still relevant

The New Zealand dollar, paired with the US currency, continues to dive down to multi-year lows. At the moment, the pair is trading at the base of the 62nd figure and the last time the price was in this area was four years ago in the fall of 2015. Judging by the dynamics of decline, the NZD/USD pair can update the 4-year low at 0.6156, approaching the levels of a decade ago, when the pair was trading within the 50s. Such a rapid decline in prices is primarily due to the trade war between the United States and China. This is the cornerstone of all the problems of New Zealand as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand focuses on this fundamental factor.

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After the July interest rate cut by 50 basis points at once, the NZD/USD pair demonstrated a pronounced downward trend on the weekly chart, which sometimes pleases the bears with large-scale price pullbacks up to a 100-point correction. This allows sellers to open short positions at a better price, pushing the pair further into the price gap. The last time this opportunity was presented to traders literally at the beginning of this week. The NZD/USD pair crashed last Friday on the news that China is introducing additional duties on the United States, but on Monday, it adjusted by almost a hundred points in response to Donald Trump's "conciliatory" comments. At this stage, it is possible to profitably open sell orders since the price began to show a downward movement again at the very next day.

All of these suggest that the game against the New Zealander now has practical meaning, and with more or less large-scale correction, it is advisable to consider short positions in a pair. Such a strategy will be relevant until Beijing and Washington sign the notorious deal. Only this fact will change the fundamental background of the pair radically. In the meantime, the market is living in the state of a trade war and in anticipation of further easing of monetary policy by the RBNZ.

Members of the New Zealand regulator will meet only twice this year and both times in the fall (September 25 and November 13). More recently, most experts were inclined to believe that the regulator would lower the interest rate by another 25 basis points, that is, to 0.75% at one of these meetings. But after another round of the global trade war, the likelihood of a different scenario is growing. According to some analysts, the RBNZ will lower the rate at each meeting this year, which will end the year at 0.50%. Also, immediately after the August meeting, New Zealand central bank head Adrian Orr said that regulators might as well have to deal with negative rates. In the event of a crisis, the regulator could lower the key interest rate to -0.35%. This suggests that the Reserve Bank is not going to stop at what they have achieved and they are ready to move on and on in the coming year.

Of course, such prospects strong pressure on the New Zealand dollar. The NZD/USD bulls are virtually helpless since it is rare that upward correction occurs mainly due to the weakness of the American currency or when Beijing and Washington come together as part of the negotiation process. But even in such cases, the NZD/USD bears make use of the situation accordingly and opening short positions, thereby, repaying the upward impulse. The fundamental background of recent weeks confirms the correctness of this strategy. Despite the declared intentions, de facto the United States and China are still too far from the moment the deal was concluded.

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It is also worth noting that NZD/USD traders should be wary of New Zealand macroeconomic reports. Strong numbers can create the illusion of a trend reversal but this is just an illusion. Internal macroeconomic statistics play an important, but far from a decisive role for RBNZ members in the context of determining further steps. The focus is on the global trade conflict, and the associated uncertainty. According to Adrian Orr, the trade war negatively affects consumer confidence, the investment climate, as well as exports and actually paralyzes business activity in the country. Incidentally, excellent data on the labor market were published on the eve of the 50-point rate cut in New Zealand. Almost all components came out in the "green zone", significantly ahead of forecast values.

From a technical point of view, the potential for the development of a bearish trend of the NZD/USD pair remains. On all of the "senior" timeframes (except for the monthly chart), the pair is located on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator and under all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator. The support level is the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the monthly chart, which is the target of the downward movement that corresponds to the mark of 0.6250.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 29/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair keeps trading below the 61% of the Fibonacci retracement and the last lower low was made at the level of 1.1073. The bears are clearly in control of this market despite the low volatility conditions. The momentum returned to the neutral level and the market conditions are now coming off the overbought levels as well. Please keep an eye on the current developments as any move lower can change the market positioning for the next days.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1293

WR2 - 1.1218

WR1 - 1.1193

Weekly Pivot Pont - 1.1119

WS1 - 1.1089

WS2 - 1.1014

WS3 - 1.0984

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.1027 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1250.

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Trading plan for EURUSD for August 29, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The 4H chart view has been presented for EURUSD to project the short term direction. Prices have slowly drifted lower after Monday opening at 1.1158. The single currency pair is seen to be trading at 1.1084 levels at this moment, and might rally towards 1.1120 levels during the day. Looking into the overall wave structure, prices have been carving lower lows and lower highs since 1.1412 levels with the recent high at 1.1250 levels which stays as a potential resistance for now. The EURO should ideally stay below 1.1158 level and drift lower toward fresh intermediary lows below 1.1020. With the sentiments at extreme bearish levels, it is better to be caution towards taking fresh shorts around current price. It is a safe strategy to keep booking profits on short positions while prices drift below 1.1020 levels.

Trading plan:

Book profits on shorts taken from last week. Remain flat after that.

Good luck!

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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 29, 2019

EUR/USD

On Wednesday, the euro fell by 13 points, reaching an important technical level of 123.6% of the Fibonacci level of the basic movement from September 24-November 12, 2018, consolidation under which opens the way to a decline to the next level of 138.2%, to the area of 1.0980. Today in the Asian session, the price is slightly correcting upwards. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator remains in the negative zone.

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On the four-hour chart, theMarlin is also in the decline zone, the price is developing below the indicator lines of balance and MACD, the last of which creates resistance at a price of 1.1100. Consolidating the price above this level will allow the correction to increase, perhaps the price will fall into the range of 1.1164/80, formed on the daily scale by the line of the price channel and the MACD line. The lower limit of the range coincides with the peak on August 26. The predominant option for further development remains downward, that is, with the price consolidation at 1.1074.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, August 29, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Italian 10-y Bond Auction, German Unemployment Change, German Prelim CPI m/m, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, French Prelim GDP q/q, and French Consumer Spending m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, Goods Trade Balance, and Prelim GDP q/q, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1139. Strong Resistance: 1.1133. Original Resistance: 1.1122. Inner Sell Area: 1.1111. Target Inner Area: 1.1085. Inner Buy Area: 1.1059. Original Support: 1.1048. Strong Support: 1.1037. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1031. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, August 29,2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Consumer Confidence and the US will publish some economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, Goods Trade Balance, and Prelim GDP q/q. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3 : 106.50. Resistance. 2: 106.29. Resistance. 1: 106.08. Support. 1: 105.83. Support. 2: 105.62. Support. 3: 105.41. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on August 29, 2019

GBP/USD

The British pound at the time of yesterday's fall was losing 133 points, reaching the first target of a 238.2% Fibonacci reaction. The Marlin Oscillator on the daily chart showed a reversal down.

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On the four-hour chart, the double divergence worked in all its splendor - the price attacked the support of the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator itself is completely in a downward position. Currently, the price is struggling with the support of the balance line (indicator red) and intends to gain a foothold below the MACD line. Success will lead to a repeated attack on the Fibonacci level of 238.2% of the daily scale, and consolidation below it opens up to 261.8% at the price of 1.2032 to the Fibonacci level.

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on August 29, 2019

USD / JPY pair

The Japanese yen is consolidating for the third day after a sharp rise in prices on Monday. Previously, the price of the nearest resistance is in a downward line of the price channel at 106.33 as a result of the convergence on the Marlin oscillator. Above it, the resistance of the MACD line is at 106.77 on the daily chart.

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On a four-hour chart, the price winds up on the MACD line with the signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the trend growth zone. The consolidation range around 105.60-106.33 and overcoming the price of its lower boundary at August 27 low may trigger a fall to the lower line of the price channel to the area of 104.77. We tend to take the upward option as the main one, but as we noted in previous reviews, the growth of the pair will be difficult since there are a lot of technical resistances before the price.

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AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX. Comprehensive analysis of movement options since August 29, 2019 APLs &

Minuette operational scale (H4)

Let me bring to your attention a comprehensive analysis of the options for the development of the movement of AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX from August 29, 2019 through the Minuette operational scale (H4)

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US dollar Index

From August 29, 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 98.35 (control line UTL Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 98.10 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel).

The breakdown of the support level of 98.10 - the development of the dollar index movement will continue within the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channels of the Minuette operational scales fork - (98.10 - 97.75 - 97.45) and Minuette (97.75 - 97.55 - 97.32) with the prospect of reaching the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scales fork (96.95 - 96.55 - 95.10) and Minuette (96.95 - 96.45 - 96.05).

With a combined breakdown of the UTL control line (resistance level of 98.35) of the Minuette operational scale fork and updating the local maximum 98.45, the upward movement of #USDX can be continued to the targets - maximum 98.93 - UTL Minuette control line (99.15).

We look at the layout of the #USDX movement options in the animated chart.

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Australian dollar vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the Australian dollar/US dollar (AUD / USD) from August 29, 2019 will also be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 0.6750 (lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel);
  • support level of 0.6740 (lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel).

The breakdown of the resistance level of 0.6750 will determine the development of the movement of the Australian dollar in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (0.6750 - 0.6765 - 0.6780) with the prospect of reaching the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.6825 - 0.6855 - 0.6890) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the support level of 0.6740 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel) will make it relevant to continue the downward movement of AUD / USD to the targets - the initial SSL line (0.6720) of the Minuette operational scale fork - the initial line SSL (0.6705) of the Minuette operational scale fork - minimums (0.6690 - 0.6677).

We look at the layout of the AUD / USD movement options in the animated chart.

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New Zealand dollar vs US dollar

Now, similarly, the development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar/ US dollar (NZD / USD) from August 29, 2019 will also depend on the direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 0.6350 (lower boundary ISL61.8 of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork);
  • support level of 0.6324 (initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale fork).

The breakdown of the resistance level of 0.6350 and ISL61.8 Minuette will determine the development of the movement of the NZD/USD within the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.6350 - 0.6405 - 0.6460) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

In case of the breakdown of the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale fork (support level of 0.6324), the downward movement of NZD / USD can continue to the warning line LWL38.2 Minuette (0.6240).

We look at the layout of the NZD / USD movement options in the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Canadian dollar

The development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the channel of the equilibrium zone (1.3370 - 1.3305 - 1.3240) of the Minuette operational scale fork will begin to determine the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar/US dollar (USD / CAD) from August 29, 2019. The options for movement inside this equilibrium zone are presented on the animation chart.

The downward movement of USD / CAD will be possible after the breakdown of the support level of 1.3240 at the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork and this will be directed to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channels of the Minuette operational scales fork (1.3170 - 1.3125 - 1.3080) and Minuette (1.3155 - 1.3110 - 1.3055).

The upward movement of USD / CAD will take place as a result of breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (resistance level of 1.31550) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale and its targets will be the warning lines UWL100.0 (1.3430) and UWL161.8 (1.3560) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

We look at the layout of the USD / CAD movement options in the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. The opening of trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound Sterling - 11.9%;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on August 29

Forecast for August 29 :

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1128, 1.1110, 1.1094, 1.1077, 1.1066, 1.1040 and 1.1022. Here, we expect the development of the downward structure from August 26, which requires a breakdown of the noise range 1.1077 - 1.1066. In this case, the goal is 1.1040. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1022, and near which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.1094 - 1.1110. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1128. This level is a key support for the downward structure. Its passage in price will lead to the development of the upward movement. In this case, the potential target is 1.1164 .

The main trend is the downward potential of August 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1095 Take profit: 1.1110

Buy 1.1112 Take profit: 1.1126

Sell: 1.1064 Take profit: 1.1042

Sell: 1.1040 Take profit: 1.1024

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2302, 1.2252, 1.2229, 1.2190, 1.2166, 1.2113 and 1.2063. Here, the price forms a pronounced potential for the downward movement of August 27. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2190 - 1.2166. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.2113. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2063. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2229 - 1.2252. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the formation of an upward structure. Here, the potential target is 1.2302.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the bottom of August 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2230 Take profit: 1.2252

Buy: 1.2255 Take profit: 1.2300

Sell: 1.2190 Take profit: 1.2167

Sell: 1.2164 Take profit: 1.2115

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9920, 0.9893, 0.9877, 0.9839, 0.9817, 0.9777, 0.9756, 0.9704, 0.9673, 0.9650 and 0.9586. Here, the price is in equilibrium: the downward structure of August 23, as well as the formation of the potential for the top of August 26. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9777 - 0.9758. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 0.9735. Consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9735 will lead to the development of a downward structure from August 23. In this case, the first target is 0.9704.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9817 - 0.9839. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of the ascending structure from August 26. Here, the target is 0.9877. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9877 - 0.9893. For a potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9920. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9817 Take profit: 0.9836

Buy : 0.9842 Take profit: 0.9875

Sell: 0.9777 Take profit: 0.9760

Sell: 0.9756 Take profit: 0.9735

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 107.88, 107.14, 106.87, 106.52, 105.65, 105.37, 104.92 and 104.44. Here, the price is in equilibrium: the descending structure of August 23, as well as the ascending structure of August 26. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.52. In this case, the target is 106.87, where consolidation is near this level. The passage at the price of the noise range 106.87 - 107.14 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 107.88. Consolidation is near this level.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 105.65 - 105.37. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first target is 104.92. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 104.44, where consolidation is near this level.

The main trend: the equilibrium situation: the descending structure of August 23, as well as the ascending structure of August 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 106.52 Take profit: 106.85

Buy : 107.15 Take profit: 107.88

Sell: 105.35 Take profit: 104.94

Sell: 104.90 Take profit: 104.46

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3379, 1.3357, 1.3328, 1.3318, 1.3305, 1.3275, 1.3259, 1.3241 and 1.3217. Here, the price forms a pronounced potential for the upward movement of August 27. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3305. In this case, the target is 1.3318. Consolidation is near this level. The passage at the price of the noise range 1.3318 - 1.3328 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3357. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3379. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3275 - 1.3259. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.3241. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward movement. In this case, the first potential target is 1.3217.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of August 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3305 Take profit: 1.3318

Buy : 1.3328 Take profit: 1.3357

Sell: 1.3275 Take profit: 1.3262

Sell: 1.3257 Take profit: 1.3241

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6859, 0.6822, 0.6808, 0.6786, 0.6768, 0.6748 and 0.6725. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of August 26. At the moment, the price is close to the cancellation of this structure, which requires the breakdown of the level of 0.6725. In this case, the potential target for the downward movement is 0.6690. The continuation of the upward trend is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6768. In this case, the first target is 0.6786. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow you to count on movement to 0.6808.

Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6808 - 0.6822. The breakdown of the level of 0.6822 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6859. Price consolidation is near this level, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of August 21, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6786 Take profit: 0.6808

Buy: 0.6809 Take profit: 0.6820

Sell : 0.6745 Take profit : 0.6728

Sell: 0.6722 Take profit: 0.6695

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 118.99, 118.67, 118.22, 118.01, 117.74, 117.28, 117.00 and 116.54. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of August 23. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 117.74. In this case, the first target is 118.01. The passage at the price of the noise range 118.01 - 118.22, will lead to a pronounced movement. In this case, the target is 118.67. Consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 118.99. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The range 117.28 - 117.00 is a key support for the upward structure. Its passage at the price will favor the development of a downward movement. In this case, the first potential target is 116.54.

The main trend is the downward cycle of August 13, the formation of the potential for the top of August 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 117.75 Take profit: 118.01

Buy: 118.22 Take profit: 118.65

Sell: 117.28 Take profit: 117.05

Sell: 117.00 Take profit: 116.55

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 133.74, 132.73, 132.17, 131.23, 130.57, 129.00 and 128.12. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of August 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 130.57 - 131.23. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 132.17 Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 132.17 - 132.73. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 133.74. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

The range of 129.00 - 128.12 is the key support for the ascending structure of August 12. The breakdown of the level of 128.12 will favor the development of the downward movement. In this case, the first potential target is 126.48.

The main trend is the ascending structure of August 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 130.58 Take profit: 131.23

Buy: 131.26 Take profit: 132.17

Sell: 128.96 Take profit: 128.12

Sell: 128.10 Take profit: 126.55

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Britain on the verge of a constitutional crisis

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The pound fell sharply by 100 points on the news that Boris Johnson could try to interrupt parliament for a month - from September 11 to October 14 - so that Parliament could not stop Johnson from withdrawing Britain out of the EU without an agreement.

This is a constitutional crisis. The queen has such a right to suspend the work of the parliament, at the proposal of the prime minister. However, such an action on this occasion is a clear crisis. Given the minimal majority of conservatives in parliament - it is very likely - to have a political crisis and new elections.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Is it possible to pull down the euro to $1.05?

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Market sentiment is generally balanced between fears of a slowdown in the global economy and hopes of a degree decline in the trade conflict between the US and China. While this is not noticeable, on the contrary, all sorts of steps of the conflicting parties reveal the gambling tendency of officials to eternal confrontation. It is indicative that neither Beijing nor Washington have so far lost ground on such important issues as technology and intellectual property rights.

Without a breakthrough in trade negotiations in the near future, current trends may well be negatively developed. The yuan is likely to remain under pressure and may well carry out a forecast of a fall to the level of 7.22 against the dollar. A strong weakening of the Chinese currency promises to be the main source of deflation in the world. This pressure will be less felt in the US, as the introduced tariffs lead to higher prices.

Due to the fact that the parties are constantly adding fuel to the "bonfire" of trade disagreements, the dollar risks becoming more expensive in the future not only to the euro, but also to other major currencies.

The fact is that the Federal Reserve will have less space to ease policy. If the United States and China do not come to a compromise, the dollar will head for a 14-year high and rise to 104 against a basket of 6 major competitors.

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The EUR/USD pair may suffer the most, as additional pressure on the euro comes from the ECB. The regulator promises to lower rates in September, if it keeps its word, then the main pair can fall to $1.05 by Christmas. At this point, the euro runs the risk of being stuck for the entire first quarter of next year.

The ECB officials are unlikely to be bothered by the fall of the euro, even if the exchange rate reaches parity with the dollar. The main goal is to help the economy and avoid excessive buildup of debts.

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Meanwhile, the head of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, believes that the ECB does not need to rush to resume mitigation and "act for action." The speculation about the rate cut at the September meeting is less and less consistent with the latest news from the economic front.

It is worth noting that Weidmann is a traditional hawk, and only with the advent of a vacant seat as head of the ECB began to play the role of a pragmatist. This did not last long, since the place went to Christine Lagarde.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading idea for the EURUSD on August 28, 2019

The dollar weakening impulse that gave rise to bullish sentiment on the EURUSD pair of August 23 did not develop into the third wave of purchases. Thus, players with long positions in Chinese duties and Powell are drawn into the market, and they are now trapped, which will be discussed in this article.

Trading idea for the pair EURUSD

The developments

Recently, the most popular pair in the world of trading EURUSD was shocked by a series of very controversial events and news that I put on the daily chart of this pair (see below). The most important of these are Jerome Powell's speech and the US announcement of the imposition of duties on Chinese goods, as well as China's response itself.

All these events dragged a large number of players into the market, relying on fundamental analysis and news. And this is normal. All this gigantic mass of orders - concentrated in the relatively small news range of 100p between quotes 1.105 - 1.1150 - it was in this zone that all the latest news came out.

The technical picture

In my analytics, I am guided by the "Hunting for stops" system, which assumes a price movement with a higher probability in the direction where the stops (money) of small and medium bidders accumulate, as well as signal bars from the D1 "Price Action"

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Let me remind you that the EURUSD pair is trading at the lows of the current (and last) year, and all long-term and medium-term buyers can hide their risks only for a round extremum of 1.1.

In other words, everyone who has gone from dollars to euros on "duties" is now being held at 1.1 and they simply have no other place.

The news impulse of 08/23/19 did not lead to the emergence of a third growth wave. Moreover, it is almost completely absorbed. The stops of medium-term buyers are now below this day at 1.1050, and this is the first target for EURUSD sales. The second goal is a minimum of a year, as well as around level of 1.1 - under which are the risks of buyers throughout the month of August. In addition, as practice shows, trading near such extremes lead to breakdowns of such levels.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Should the Fed soften the blow or refuse to play along with Trump?

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The EUR/USD pair is still stuck in the range of 1.1050-1.11150 and so far has not found a reason to exit this side trend.

The day before, former head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley voiced what many probably thought, but did not dare to say out loud.

"If the re-election of Donald Trump in 2020 poses a threat to the US economy, then the Fed should stop being apolitical and indulge the head of the White House," said the former vice president of FOMC.

One of the reasons for the slowdown in US GDP, indeed, is the trade war between Washington and Beijing, which adversely affects investment and exports. Tariffs are a heavy burden on US citizens. The question is, why then should the Fed follow the lead of a person who is pushing the country to the abyss?

According to W. Dudley, attempts by the regulator to protect the US economy from the negative effects of a trade war may not only be ineffective, but will worsen the situation even more.

"What if easing monetary policy would only provoke the US president, allowing him to further escalate the trade conflict and increase the risk of recession?" he said.

D. Trump raises old and introduces new tariffs, putting pressure on the Fed, urging it to cut the interest rate by 1% and to revive the quantitative easing (QE) program. He does all this in order to win the trade war, which harms the US economy. This is the truth that people refuse to listen. However, as you know, he will not get away from it. Another round of escalation of trade tension has led to a decrease in the differential yield of ten- and two-year US government bonds to -5.3 basis points for the first time since March 2007. At the same time, the spread between ten-year and three-month bonds fell to -51.4 basis points. Thus, the chances of a recession in the United States are growing by leaps and bounds, and there is no need to look for the culprit.

Most of all, Trump' statement at the G7 summit on a phone call from the representatives of China regarding the resumption of trade negotiations seems to have surprised the Chinese themselves. So far, Beijing has not given any confirmation of the conversation. The trade war continues, the risks of a slowdown and recession in the US economy increases, and the USD index is growing.

The reasons for the greenback's strengthening primarily lies in the weaknesses of its main competitors. At the same time, Washington's fears of currency interventions with the aim of weakening the US currency are holding back EUR/USD bears from taking action. Neither the deterioration of the political situation in Italy, nor the decrease in German GDP by 0.1% in April-June in quarterly terms led to a breakthrough of support at 1.1050-1.1065 for the EUR/USD pair. It is possible that market participants decided to wait for the release of data on US GDP for the second quarter, as well as the August release on European inflation, which will be released this week.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. August 28. Results of the day. Five factors of dollar growth and one in favor of strengthening the euro

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 28p - 49p - 101p - 70p - 30p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 56p (average).

A completely empty calendar of macroeconomic events makes traders stay out of the market. Those positions that are already open remain open, but new ones do not open, since there are no drivers for this. Thus, volatility fell to the lowest. Yesterday it amounted to only 30 points, so far it was at 24 today. There was not a single one from even minor publications today. Based on this, the emphasis on the forex market is again shifting towards the GBP/USD pair, on which there is clearly more news. Today, it was just like a bolt from the blue that Boris Johnson turned to Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain with a request to suspend the work of the Parliament for a period of about one month. Naturally, market participants immediately rushed to sell the pound, and everyone forgot about the euro currency.

In the current situation, we have only one thing to do. To speculate on the topic, what are the prospects of the European currency paired with the US dollar in the near future? Here we have some interesting factors to predict the future dynamics. The first is a perfect rebound of the pair from the Kijun-sen line on the daily chart using the Ichimoku indicator with standard settings. Every trader can see this rebound, and it is quite a strong sell signal. The second is a rebound from the Senkou span B line on the 4-hour chart, which is seen above. It is also a strong sell signal, as the Senkou span B line itself is strong. The third is a year and a half downward trend for the euro, which is difficult to break a priori. The fourth is the readiness of the ECB to cut rates at the next meetings, to revive the quantitative stimulus program and the lending program for commercial banks. The fifth is the proximity of prices to two-year lows. It usually happens that near lows, traders place either take profit orders in short positions or pending orders against the trend, which leads to sharp price rebounds from areas close to lows. In our case, traders do not expect the euro to strengthen and are going to stop the medium-and long-term sales of the euro/dollar pair. From our point of view, all these factors almost unambiguously speak in favor of the continuation of the downward trend. In favor of its completion, there are much fewer factors, or rather, one - the escalation of the trade conflict between China and the United States may lead in the future to a strong drop in US macroeconomic indicators and to a repeated reduction in the key Fed rate. That is what can lead to a drop in demand for the US currency and its depreciation. However, even this factor is, so to speak, long-term.

On the technical side, the euro/dollar pair has now fallen to the support level of 1.1078. Consolidation below this level will open the way for bears to the level of 1.1023.

Trading recommendations:

EUR/USD continues to move down. At the moment, we can consider sell orders while aiming for the support level of 1.1023, if there are no problems with overcoming the 1.1078 level. Bulls once again showed their weakness, having failed to overcome the Senkou Span B line, so buying the pair is not recommended yet.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be considered.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com