Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 11, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD bulls have managed to push the price towards the short-term supply zone located between the levels of 1.2747 - 1.2786. The price has made a new swing high at the level of 1.2811, but this high was made on the Pin Bar candlestick pattern. The price was rejected from the zone, so the momentum went down as well towards the fifty level. In a case of a trend continuation, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2823 and 1.2848. Nevertheless, the market conditions on H4 time frame are now extremely overbought, so please keep an eye on the price developments around the level of 1.2645. The immediate support is seen at the level of 1.2645.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3258

WR2 - 1.2986

WR1 - 1.2861

Weekly Pivot - 1.2596

WS1 - 1.2454

WS2 - 1.2189

WS3 - 1.2084

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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USD/CAD Price Action Suggests A Reversal UP!

USD/CAD rallies as the USDX has managed to rebound in the current session. The pair is trading at 1.3477, far above the 1.3315 yesterday's low. A USDX's further increase will force the currency quote to climb way higher in the weeks to come.

As you already know, the Federal Reserve maintained the Federal Funds Rate steady at 0.25% in yesterday's monetary policy meeting, sustaining that they will use all available tools to fight the COVIS-19 effects.

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USD/CAD has found support right on the 78.6% retracement level, has developed a pin bar, and now is trading in the green again. The pair has made only a false breakdown with great separation below the 1.3347 static support, so a strong bullish candle could announce a bullish momentum and a bullish reversal.

The price approaches the 1.3487 former high, another higher high, and consolidation above the median line (ML) of the major orange descending pitchfork could bring a buying opportunity.

The bearish pressure is still high, USD/CAD could drop anytime again if the USDX resumes its downside movement, but we may have an important rebound on this pair if the price will consolidate above the median line (ML) and above the 1.3347 level.

I've drawn an ascending pitchfork (black) hoping that I'll catch the next leg higher, so a retest or a false breakdown with great separation below the lower median line (lml) and below the 1.3347 will suggest buying.

  • USD/CAD Trading Tips

USD/CAD will resume its downside movement if it stabilizes below the median line (ML), and if it makes another lower low, to drop and close below the 1.3315 level, the next targets are see at the 88.6%, and lower at the 100% levels.

Technically, yesterday's pin bar, false breakdown with huge separation below the 1.3347 level, and below the 78.6% has signaled a potential reversal after the major drop. As I've said earlier, we may have a great long opportunity if USD/CAD comes back to retest the 1.3347 and the lower median line (lml), if it registers a false breakdown with huge separation. The median line (ml) of the black ascending pitchfork could attract the pair if it stays within the ascending pitchfork's body.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for June 11, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, an upward pullback is possible from the level of 1.1376 (closing of yesterday's candle) with the target of 1.1308 - a 14.6% retracement level (red dashed line). There is a possibility that from this level the price may continue to move downward with the next target of 1.1238 - a 23.6% retracement level (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may begin to move downward from the level of 1.1376 (closing of yesterday's candle) with the target of 1.1308 - a 14.6% retracement level (red dashed line). There is a possibility that from this level, the price may continue to move downward with the next target of 1.1238 - a 23.6% retracement level (red dashed line).

Another possible scenario is an upward trend after reaching the lower pullback level of 14.6% equivalent to 1.1308 (red dashed line) with the target at the upper fractal 1.1423 (blue dashed line).

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Crude oil trying to test 37.07, June 11, 2020.

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On the 4-hour chart, we can see that the double top pattern. It means that oil may test the neckline at the 37.07 level. If this level is broken out, the oil will decline to the next level at 35.50 as its first target and the 34.27 level as its second target. As long as the crude oil does not rise and close above the 40.43 level, this scenario is likely to come true.

(Disclaimer)

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Hot forecast and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on June 11, 2020

The Federal Reserve, as expected, left the refinancing rate unchanged. In addition, there was no talk of any additional quantitative easing. The US central bank will closely monitor the development of events, and make further decisions based on what effect the already taken stimulus measures will have. However, Jerome Powell said interest rates were not expected to be raised until 2022. Although he said only about the increase, most likely this applies to the entire monetary policy as a whole. So interest rates will remain unchanged over the next couple of years. The only thing that can change is the expansion of incentive measures. After all, the government has already allocated nearly two trillion. dollars that the Fed has provided. So if these funds are not enough, then the regulator will probably find some other way to inject additional money into the economy. But this is still out of the question.

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However, the pace of the slowdown in US inflation is going quicker than expected. It decreased from 0.3% to 0.1%, and not to 0.2% as predicted. In other words, the United States, like Europe, is steadily slipping into deflation. And most likely, this is precisely what hindered the dollar from carrying out a full correction.

Inflation (United States):

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Nevertheless, the dollar clearly looks much more attractive than the single European currency. Unlike the European Central Bank, the Fed does not take measures to mitigate monetary policy. In addition, despite the catastrophic situation in the labor market, the dynamics are drawn relatively well. So, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits should decrease from 1,877,000 to 1,500,000. The number of repeated applications may be reduced from 21,487,000 to 19,890,000, which should become the lowest value in the last six weeks. So the dynamics are positive, and inspire at least some optimism.

Repeated Unemployment Claims (United States):

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we have high activity associated with the last meeting, where the quote managed to show dynamics of 100 points in less than half an hour, eventually knocking down stops for both sellers and buyers. It is worth noting that, in the wake of speculative activity, the quote locally updated its highs, hitting the 1.1422 mark, thereby bringing us closer and closer to the area where trading forces interact at 1.1440/1.1500.

Based on a number of technical and fundamental factors, the quote ultimately unfolded with the rapid strengthening of the US dollar.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, the daily period, it is worth highlighting the rapid inertial move of May 26, where the European currency gained more than 500 points, which was a signal of a change in market ticks.

It can be assumed that amid tremendous overbought, as well as the convergence of prices with the area where trading forces interact at 1.1440/1.1500, sellers will try to take advantage of the situation, locally releasing the quote. The prospect of a move in this case will look like a stepwise move, where relative to the price taking points, the scope of a possible correction will be clear.

Specifying all of the above into trading signals:

Sales positions have already been sent towards a variable level of 1.1300, where a temporary slowdown is possible, but if the price marks lower than 1.1290, a sequential descent in the direction of 1.1250-1.1200 can be expected.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators of technical instruments relative to hourly and daily periods still signal a purchase, but there are already shifts, which can lead to a change in signals at hourly intervals.

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Markets are still unprepared to continue the June rally (continuation of the correction of the EUR/USD and AUD/USD pairs

On Wednesday, all market attention was focused on Fed's final decision on monetary policy and its economic forecasts for the second half of the year and the next three years, which left a corresponding mark on the dynamics of world markets in general and the currency market in particular.

Investors believed that the regulator would not take any extreme measures in relation to the current soft monetary rate and would follow it until the US economy showed a sign of a steady growth rate. However, despite such positive expectations, stock indices in Europe and the USA showed a correctional decline before the publication of the bank's communique and its economic forecasts for the second half of this year, as well as the speeches of its leader J. Powell. This could be explained only by the fact that market participants still allowed, on the one hand, the Central Bank to intervene in the dynamics of government bond prices, and on the other, on the background of a likely rapid recovery of the country's economy with a promising start to reduce stimulus measures.

In the published plan, the Fed predicts that the federal funds rate will remain until 2022 in the range of 0.0% -0.25% with a long-term rate of 2.5%. The Bank believes that this year's GDP will decline to 6.5%, but it will amount to 5.0% and 3.5% already in 2021 and 2022, and 1.8% in 2023, respectively. The employment level will move from 9.3% this year to 2023 with a decline first in 2021 to 6.5%, then to 5.5% and 4.1% in the next two years. Inflation will gradually rise from 1.0%, then 1.5% to 1.7%.

Powell noted the existing problems in the economy in his commentary, the risks of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, but at the same time, signaled that increased economic growth in the country should be expected in the second half of the year.

In turn, markets reacted to the Fed's decision, its forecasts and Powell's speech by the negative dynamics of stock indices and commodity assets. This can be explained by the desire to fix the previously received profit and only then on the correctional decline to start buying again.

The currency market consolidated with a slight weakening of the dollar in anticipation of speaking at a press conference by J. Powell. But then, following the results of his speech, the dollar began to receive support. We do not expect this to change the trend. Most likely, we are facing a small correction, and amid some new positive messages, the rally in the stock markets, supported by the resumption of the dollar's decline, will continue.

Also on Wednesday, market players turned their attention to the publication of consumer inflation data in the United States. According to the presented consensus forecast, the consumer price index in annual terms was supposed to add 0.2% in May against the growth of 0.3% in April, and its monthly value should decline by 0.1 against the fall by 0.8% a month earlier. However, the values of the indicators were worse than expected. On an annualized basis, the consumer price index grew by only 0.1%, while the indicator showed an expected value of -0.1% in May. But what is noticeably more important is that the basic consumer price index in May was the same as in April -0.1%, and its annual value increased less than the forecast of 1.3%, only 1.2% compared to the April value of 1.4%.

The currency market practically did not respond to these statistics, although it should be noted that if the values were above expectations, then this would most likely lead to a local increase in the dollar before the result of the Fed meeting. This would lead to increased speculation about a possible increase in inflationary pressure, which could become a reason for adjusting the current soft monetary rate of the Federal Reserve, which is really frightening both in the bank and in the financial markets.

We believe that the Fed's decision to leave the current monetary policy course will have a beneficial effect on the demand for stocks of companies and will give them a new impulse for their growth. In this situation, of course, one should not expect an increase in the exchange rate of the US currency, which will be restrained, on the one hand, by the resumption of demand for stocks of companies, and on the other, by low yields on government bonds of the US Treasury.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading above the level of 1.1320. A decline below this level will lead to a corrective decline of the pair to 1.1185 if there is no new positive news on the markets by the end of the week.

The AUD/USD pair corrected by 23% Fibonacci after reaching a local maximum. The negativity for it is the price decline for commodity and raw material assets in the wake of a correction in the markets, as well as political tensions with China, which is an important economic partner for the country. A decline in price below the level of 0.6900 will lead to a correctional fall of 38% in Fibonacci, to 0.6815.

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EUR/USD: Fed's statement and its forecast for the US Economy

The Federal Reserve intends to use the full range of tools to support the US economy during this difficult time, thereby contributing to reach the goals of maximum employment and price stability.

The coronavirus outbreak causes tremendous human and economic difficulties in the United States and around the world. The virus and measures taken to protect public health (quarantine) have led to a sharp decline in economic activity and a sharp increase in job losses. At the same time, weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding back consumer price inflation. Yet, financial conditions improved, partly reflecting policies to support the economy and the flow of loans to American households and enterprises.

The ongoing public health crisis (coronavirus) will greatly affect economic activity, employment and inflation in the short-term and pose significant risks to economic prospects in the medium-term. In the light of these events, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has survived the recent events and is on the way to achieving its maximum goals in the field of employment and price stability.

Moreover, the Committee will continue to monitor the impact of the information received on economic prospects, including information related to health (the pandemic), as well as global trends and moderated inflationary pressures, and will use its tools and act appropriately to support the economy. In determining the timing and amount of future adjustments to the monetary policy position, the Committee will evaluate the realized and expected economic conditions with respect to its maximum employment target and its symmetric inflation target of 2 percent. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including indicators of labor market conditions, indicators of inflationary pressures and inflationary expectations, indications of financial and international events.

To support the flow of loans to households and enterprises, the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of treasury securities and agent residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace in the coming months. This will maintain the smooth functioning of the market, thereby facilitating the effective transfer of monetary policy into wider financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Bureau will continue to offer large-scale operations to conclude buy-back agreements overnight and on time. The Committee will closely monitor developments and is ready to adjust its plans accordingly.

(This is adopted unanimously at the Fed meeting on June 10)

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What happened to the EUR/USD pair 15 minutes after the Fed?

We keep buying from 1.1320 to a goal of 1.1480.

The Fed forecast for the year 2020: GDP - 6.5%, unemployment 9.3%, inflation + 0.8%, Fed rate 0.1%.

The Fed's forecast for the year 2021: GDP + 5%, unemployment 6.5%, inflation + 1.6%, Fed rate 0.1%.

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Fractal analysis of main currency pairs on June 11th

Forecast for June 11:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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The key levels for the euro / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.1533, 1.1488, 1.1457, 1.1408, 1.1334, 1.1299 and 1.1238. Here, we are following the local rising structure of June 9th. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1408. In this case, the target is 1.1457. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 1.1457 - 1.1488. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1533. We expect a downward pullback upon reaching this level.

We expect short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation in the range 1.1334 - 1.1299. The breakdown of the last reading will have the downward structure development. In this case, the first goal is 1.1238. This is the key resistance level for the bottom.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of June 9

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1408 Take profit: 1.1457

Buy: 1.1488 Take profit: 1.1533

Sell: 1.1334 Take profit: 1.1300

Sell: 1.1297 Take profit: 1.1240

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The key levels for the pound / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.2974, 1.2901, 1.2845, 1.2777, 1.2685, 1.2626, 1.2566 and 1.2515. Here, we are following the ascending structure of May 25. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2777. In this case, the target is 1.2845. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 1.2845 - 1.2901. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2974. We expect a downward pullback upon reaching this level.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2685 - 1.2626. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 1.2566. The range of 1.2566 - 1.2515 is the key support for the top, We expect the initial conditions for the downward cycle to be formed to the level of 1.2515.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of May 25

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2777 Take profit: 1.2845

Buy: 1.2845 Take profit: 1.2900

Sell: 1.2685 Take profit: 1.2628

Sell: 1.2640 Take profit: 1.2568

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The key levels for the dollar / franc pair on the H1 scale are: 0.9582, 0.9539, 0.9518, 0.9476, 0.9443, 0.9423 and 0.9387. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of June 5th. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the price passes the noise range of 0.9443 - 0.9423. In this case, the target is 0.9387. Price consolidation is near this level. We consider the level of 0.9342 to be a potential value for the downward cycle. We expect an upward pullback upon reaching this level.

It is possible to avoid correction after the breakdown of the level of 0.9476. In this case, the target is 0.9518. The range of 0.9518 - 0.9539 is the key support for the bottom. We expect the top of the initial conditions to form at the level of 0.9539.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 5

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9476 Take profit: 0.9516

Buy : 0.9540 Take profit: 0.9580

Sell: 0.9422 Take profit: 0.9388

Sell: 0.9385 Take profit: 0.9343

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The key levels for the dollar / yen pair on the scale are : 108.39, 108.15, 107.67, 107.34, 106.64, 106.07, 105.78 and 105.08. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of June 5th. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.64. In this case, the target is 106.07. A short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 106.07 - 105.78. We consider the level of 105.08 to be a potential value for the downward trend. We expect an upward pullback upon reaching this level.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 107.34 - 107.67. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 108.15. We expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed before the noise range 108.15 - 108.39.

The main trend: the downward cycle of June 5

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.35 Take profit: 107.66

Buy : 107.69 Take profit: 108.15

Sell: 106.64 Take profit: 106.07

Sell: 105.76 Take profit: 105.10

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The key levels for the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.3634, 1.3579, 1.3510, 1.3452, 1.3371, 1.3340 and 1.3283. Here, the price has entered an equilibrium zone. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3371 - 1.3340. In this case, the potential target is 1.3283, after which we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3452 - 1.3510. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the development of a deeper correction. Here, the target is 1.3579. We consider the level 1.3634 to be the potential value for the top, to which we expect the initial conditions to be formed for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the local descending structure of May 29

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3452 Take profit: 1.3510

Buy : 1.3512 Take profit: 1.3578

Sell: 1.3340 Take profit: 1.3285

Sell: Take profit:

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The key levels for the Australian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are : 0.7132, 0.7073, 0.7011, 0.6941, 0.6901 and 0.6840. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of May 15. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.7011. In this case, the target is 0.7073. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7132. After which we expect a downward pullback. However, it is most likely that the reversal to the correction will occur earlier than reaching the potential value, namely from the range 0.7011 - 0.7073.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.6941 - 0.6901. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6840. This is the key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 15

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7011 Take profit: 0.7070

Buy: 0.7075 Take profit: 0.7130

Sell : 0.6940 Take profit : 0.6903

Sell: 0.6900 Take profit: 0.6843

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The key levels for the euro / yen pair on the H1 scale are: 123.13, 122.61, 122.21, 121.67, 121.34, 120.52 and 119.94. Here, we are following the descending structure of June 5th. A consolidated movement is expected in the range of 121.67 - 121.34. The breakdown of the last level should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 120.52. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 119.94. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 122.21 - 122.61. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the goal is 123.13. This level is a key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the building of potential for the downward cycle of June 5

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 122.21 Take profit: 122.60

Buy: 122.63 Take profit: 123.10

Sell: 121.32 Take profit: 120.55

Sell: 120.50 Take profit: 119.96

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The key levels for the pound / yen pair on the H1 scale are : 137.61, 136.90, 136.45, 135.65, 135.05, 134.36, 133.81 and 132.81. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of June 5th. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 135.65 - 135.05. The breakdown of the last level will allow us to count on movement to the level of 134.36. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 134.36 - 133.81. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 132.81. Upon reaching which, we expect an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 136.45 - 136.90. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the potential target is 137.61. This is the key support level for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of June 5

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.45 Take profit: 136.90

Buy: 136.92 Take profit: 137.60

Sell: 135.65 Take profit: 135.08

Sell: 135.00 Take profit: 134.40

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for June 11, 2020

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EUR/GBP needed another stab to test solid support at 0.8866. However, the following break above minor resistance at 0.8939 indicates that the correction in wave ii is complete and a new impulsive rally towards 0.9485 can be expected.

Short-term, we should see support near 0.8883 be able to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 0.8959 and more importantly above resistance at 0.9007 that should accellerate the rally higher towards 0.9485.

R3: 0.9007

R2: 0.8975

R1: 0.8959

Pivot: 0.8941

S1: 0.8933

S2: 0.8912

S3: 0.8883

Trading recommendation:

We remain long EUR from 0.8760 with our stop placed at 0.8860.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 11, 2020

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GBP/JPY broke below the 38.2% corrective target at 136.34. This indicates a continuation of a drop lower to the 50% corrective target at 135.26 and, of course, a shift in the corrective shape too. A triangle consolidation is still possible, but, this time, we cannot say what shape this red wave iv correction may take.

To be sure that the red wave iv is completed, we need a break back above the minor resistance at 137.48, which may call for the renewed upside pressure and possibly a new impulsive rally towards 141.05.

The RSI declined below the 41.39 index and confirmed that this correction fulfilled all requirements.

R3: 136.65

R2: 136.43

R1: 135.95

Pivot: 135.61

S1: 135.33

S2: 135.26

S3: 135.05

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 135.75 was hit for another nice profit of 115 pips. We are planning to re-buy the GBP at 135.35 or upon a break above 136.30.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 11 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pressure on the pound gradually returning.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Following yesterday's decision by the Federal Reserve on interest rates, as well as US inflation data, the bulls tried to continue their upward trend by forming a good signal to buy the pound, which, unfortunately, did not translate into a new bullish trend. If you look at the 5-minute chart and remember my forecast for yesterday afternoon, you will see how buyers were able to break through above resistance 1.2773 in the afternoon, the second test of which from top to bottom became an entry point to long positions. However, more than 30 points of upward movement did not take place. At the moment, an important task of the bulls is to protect support 1.2706, a breakthrough of which can cause them many problems. Forming a false breakout at this level will be a signal to open long positions in the pair that can lead to updating this week's high at 1.2803. An equally important task will be to consolidate above this range, which will open new highs for GBP/USD in the areas of 1.2906 and 1.2961, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on the pound returns, and most likely it will be so, then after breaking through the support of 1.2706, it is best to postpone long positions until the test of this week's low in the region of 1.2620, based on a correction of 20-30 points, or buy GBP/USD at a rebound from larger support around 1.2534. It is worth recalling that you need to be very careful with purchases at current highs, as the recent Commitment of Traders (COT) report for June 2 clearly showed a change in market sentiment. Over the week, short non-profit positions increased from 61,449 to 63,014, while long non-profit positions sharply dropped from 39,192 to 26,970. As a result, the nonprofit net position became even more negative and turned out to be the level of -36,044, against -22 257, which indicates a slowdown in the short-term bullish momentum and a large downward correction to likely form.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers coped with the task yesterday and did not allow the bulls to form another wave of pound growth. Now the primary task of the bears is to gain a foothold below the support of 1.2706 as soon as possible, which forms a new signal to open short positions in the hope of continuing to pull down the pair to the area of a high of 1.2620. Another target for sellers is support at 1.2534, where I recommend taking profits at the end of this week. In case GBP/USD grows in the morning, the bears also need to defend resistance at 1.2803, where forming a false breakout will be a signal to open short positions. When breaking through resistance 1.2803, it is best to abandon short positions to test the high of 1.2906, or sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from a larger resistance of 1.2961 based on a downward movement of 30-40 points by the end of the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, a breakthrough of which can lead to forming a bearish market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.2803 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.2700 will increase pressure on the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 11 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Bulls ran out of steam and failed to continue

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday's news on inflation in the US, which fell more than many expected, as well as the Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged and only slightly adjust the bond purchase program, did not allow euro buyers to continue the upward trend that we have seen since the beginning of May. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you can see that in the afternoon, even before the Fed announced its decision, the bears formed a signal to sell the euro, making a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1379. Given the pair's downward movement after the central bank announced its decision, the profit reached more than 50 points, which is pretty good in the current market. I also drew attention to sales after an update of resistance at 1.1422, the test of which took place after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, which also made it possible to take more than three dozen points from the market. As for the current technical picture, by and large, nothing has changed compared to yesterday. Bulls still need to break above the resistance 1.1403, consolidating on which will strengthen the upward momentum and lead to updating highs 1.1462 and 1.1514, where I recommend taking profits. An equally important task for euro buyers is to protect support 1.1325, where forming a false breakout will be a signal to open long positions. Otherwise, given the fact that the bulishl market is gradually coming to an end, it is best to count on purchases on a rebound from a large low of 1.1244 in anticipation of a correction of 30-40 points at the end of the day. You also need to remember that in the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 2, a decrease was noted in both long and short positions, however, sellers left the market more, which may maintain a bullish momentum until new reports are released. Reduction of short non-profit positions occurred from the level of 99,812, to the level of 93,172, while long non-profit positions slightly decreased, from the level of 175,034 to the level of 174,412. As a result, the positive non-profit net position increased again and reached 81,240 , against 75,222, which indicates an increase in interest in buying risky assets even at current prices high enough for the market.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

As for the short positions in the euro, there was a chance for a more powerful downward correction, following the Fed's statements. The bears need to wait for a false breakout to form in the resistance area of 1.1403 in the morning, which will be a signal to open short positions in the pair, however, many traders will concentrate on the Eurogroup meeting, which might discuss the assistance plan proposed by the European Commission worth 750 billion euros, which will lead to another wave of EUR/USD growth. In this scenario, it is best to count on short positions after updating the highs of 1.1462 and 1.1514 while aiming for a downward correction of 30-40 points within the day. However, it is likely that traders will disregard the meeting and focus on data on US producer prices and the labor market. In case of positive reports, demand for the US dollar may return. In this case, the bears' task is to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.1325, which will increase pressure on EUR/USD and lead to a return to the area of the lower border of the side channel of 1.1244, where I recommend taking profits. The entire upward trend formed on May 25 will depend on the breakout of this level.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the possible completion of the uptrend in the pair.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

If the pair falls in the morning, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the region of 1.12354, a break through of which will increase pressure on the euro. Growth above the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.1403 will lead to a larger bullish momentum.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XAU/USD facing bearish pressure from descending trend line, potential for further drop

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1723.66

Reason for Entry: 23.6% fibonacci retracement and Horizontal pullback support

Take Profit: 1697.07

Reason for Take Profit: horizontal overlap support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1755.79

Reason for Take Profit: 78.6% fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCAD bouncing off 1st support, further upside !

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Trading Recommendation

Entry:1.3339

Reason for Entry: 61.8% fibonacci extension

Take Profit :1.3564

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high

Stop Loss: 1.3205

Reason for Stop loss: 100% fibonacci extension

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD break below downside confirmation could trigger further drop

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.13549

Reason for Entry: Horizontal overlap support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 1.11983

Reason for Take Profit: 38.2% retracement and horizontal swing low support

Stop Loss: 1.14284

Reason for Take Profit: 100% fibonacci extension

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 11, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced its forecasts for the economy: GDP at 6.5% for 2020, and 5.0% for 2021, inflation forecast for this year was 0.8%, and 1.6% for the future. The regulator expects an unemployment rate of 9.3% this year and 6.5% in the year 2021. The dollar index lost 0.32%, while the euro grew by 33 points. The only forecast of the Fed which raises a clear doubt, is the forecast for inflation. The release of huge money supply into the open market in the framework of combating the epidemic and supporting the unemployed population cannot but cause much stronger inflation. Very soon, the Fed will be forced to raise rates even contrary to an earlier promise not to do so before the end of the year. However, for the remaining six months, you can still manipulate statistics so that this is not very obvious, and shift the focus from developing inflation to employment problems. As a result, the euro is unlikely to continue to strengthen on yesterday's data from the Fed, investors understand the unreliability of these forecasts.

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The euro is staying in the range of target levels 1.1322-1.1416. According to the Marlin oscillator, a small divergence forms on the daily chart, but this can become a reversal signal.

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Divergence is more pronounced on the four-hour chart. Consolidating the price under 1.1322, which will also correspond to the price falling below the MACD line (it is going up), opens the underlying consecutive goals: 1.1265, 1.1200, 1.1125.

Consolidating the price over 1.1416 may extend the current branch to 1.1495.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 11, 2020

GBP/USD

The pound sterling overcame the Fibonacci level of 100.0% yesterday, but in case the price returns to this level with consolidation today, yesterday's exit will be interpreted as false and will become its own and additional reversal factor. The immediate goal of going down to 1.2645 is the Fibonacci level of 110.0% on the daily chart, but it is still an intermediate goal to move up to 1.2540 - to the Fibonacci level of 123.6%.

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On the four-hour chart, the level of 1.2645 coincides with the approaching MACD line, respectively, the price overcomes two levels at once which will then cause the pound to sharply fall. A double divergence is formed on the Marlin oscillator. We are waiting for the development of a downward movement.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on June 11, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar slightly grew on Wednesday, staying within the range of Tuesday and between the levels of 0.6900-0.7080, which is already the seventh session. Leaving the price below the lower limit of the range opens the way to the first target of 0.6680 (September 12, 2019 high).

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The price has a little bit left to go under the MACD line on the four-hour chart, but for more certainty, you should wait for the price to cross the signal - target level of 0.6900, after which short positions can be opened. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned down from the border with the growth territory.

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There is a small chance for the price to increase. But in case the price goes above 0.7080, the 0.7185 target will open.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on June 11, 2020

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair continues to fall intensively. The stock market even helped it yesterday: the S&P 500 -0.53%, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.81%. Today, Nikkei 225 is losing 1.24%, Chinese China A50 -0.67%.

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The price went below the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, entering a complex range limited by the embedded trend line of the price channel at 105.95. Leaving the price below this level will trigger a medium-term decline in the dollar relative to the yen. The immediate goal is 102.02. Marlin is in the negative zone, in the zone of a declining perspective trend.

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The price has been recorded below the signal level of 107.10 on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator is in the declining trend zone. We are waiting for the price to fall. A correctional consolidation is likely within the range of 105.95-107.25.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on June 11. COT report. Buyers do not let the pair off for a second.

GBP/USD 1H

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The pound/dollar continues to trade with an increase on June 11. Last night there were certain hopes that the pair would start a small correction, but buyers do not even want to take part of the profit so that the pair moves slightly away from their highs. Thus, firstly, quotes of the pair overcame an important resistance area of 1.2719-1.2759, and secondly, they almost reached the resistance level of 1.2821. There are still no signs of the beginning of a correction, although a rebound may follow from the level of 1.2821. Although the GBP/USD pair has left the upward channel, however, the upward trend persists, as does the relevance of the upward trend line. All indicators and indicator lines are steadily increasing.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are still directed up on the 15-minute timeframe. Since the resistance area of 1.2719-1.2759 was overcome, we believe that now the pair has new opportunities for growth, you only need to overcome the target of 1.2821.

COT Report

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The COT report for the British pound shows the exact opposite (from the euro) picture of what is happening. Professional players during the reporting week intensively reduced purchase contracts (-12,784 contracts), as well as increased sales contracts (+2,215). Nevertheless, the British currency has risen in price and continues to do so (the COT report affects the days only until Tuesday inclusive, comes out with a three-day delay). Thus, the trend remained the same in the last three trading days of the past week. The total number of contracts opened during the reporting week is also in favor of Short (+9020; +4591). Thus, as we said over the past week, the growth of European currencies raises a large number of questions. The latest COT report shows that the issues were not unfounded, and the growth of the euro and the pound is almost groundless. Based on this, we are even more expecting a new downward trend for both major pairs, but technical analysis continues to confidently signal an upward trend and the absence of a correction.

The fundamental background for the British pound has not changed recently, and it is simply absent during the current week. Even statistics and fundamental data from across the ocean do not have much effect on the movement of the pound/dollar pair. Traders just keep selling the US dollar and that's it. Of course, reasons can always be found, given the political crisis that has ripened in the United States, the prevailing rates of the spread of coronavirus in the United States, given the Federal Reserve's forecasts of an economic decline of 6.4% in 2020 in the United States. The UK macroeconomic calendar is empty again on Thursday, June 11, and the United States will only publish a report that is not as important as it used to be, which is for applications for unemployment benefits. All the most interesting events are scheduled for Friday. Industrial production and GDP in the UK will be published on this day. Therefore, the pound may continue to rise in price along with the dollar at least until Friday, and it is still advised to track the possible beginning of the correction using technical indicators. For obvious reasons, trading lower is not recommended. In general, we do not recommend trading off-trend.

There are two main scenarios as of June 11:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair remains in the hands of buyers, so long positions remain relevant with targets at resistance levels of 1.2821 and 1.2979, the first of which can be considered fulfilled. However, it is now recommended to wait until we overcome the level of 1.2821 to open new longs. Take Profit in this case will be about 140 points.

2) Sellers at the moment continue to remain in the shadows and do not show themselves. If buyers release the pair below the Kijun-sen line (1.2661), then it will be possible to carefully open short positions with the goal of Senkou Span B line (1.2468). However, sell-positions should not be large in volume, since the upward trend line keeps in action exactly the upward trend. In this case, Take Profit will be about 170 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on June 11. COT report. Fed left rates unchanged and predicts -6.5%

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair resumed the upward movement on the hourly timeframe on June 10. Thus, the correction turned out to be extremely weak, and the bears showed that they were extremely few in the market, as well as their desire to buy the US dollar. Yesterday, during the publication of the results of the Federal Reserve meeting, the euro/dollar began to rise again, so the hope that the US central bank will support its currency collapsed. The pair reached the resistance level of 1.1417 very quickly and does not show any signs of starting a new round of correction. Quotes of the pair even returned to the upward channel, which, of course, is now no longer relevant. Thus, based on the results of the past trading day, we can only state that buyers remain masters of the situation, and sellers remain on the fence. Thus, the European currency can continue to rise in price.

EUR/USD 15M

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There was no reason to expect the correctional movement to begin on the 15-minute timeframe on Wednesday. Both linear regression channels are still directed upward, so the upward trend remains valid in the short term.

COT Report

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The latest COT report showed what we did not expect to see. It turned out that professional traders did not increase purchase contracts during the reporting week, but closed contracts for sale in euros. Thus, the effect was similar. But market participants who use foreign exchange contracts for hedging risks and for operating activities frolic in full swing. New 20,000 purchase contracts and 30,000 sales contracts were opened. As you can see, there was no effect from as much as +10,000 thousand sales contracts. Thus, the situation was terrible. Despite the fact that the total number of net sales contracts increased by about 5,000, the euro showed the strongest growth. This further leads us to the idea that the euro's growth is somewhat random and may be completed in the near future. However, the first trading days of the new week do not allow us to conclude that the upward trend is complete.

The overall fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair remains neutral. A report on inflation in the United States was published yesterday, which showed its decline to 0.1% y/y, which is already very close to deflation. However, we have already said that this indicator has no significance for the economy and traders. And it happened, market participants did not react to the information received. In the evening it became known that the Fed left the key rate unchanged, about zero, which caused a new round of sales of the US currency. Although, by and large, the lack of changes in the parameters of monetary policy can hardly be called bearish factors for the dollar. However, market participants now absolutely do not need any reason to sell US currency. There are formal occasions - great! All ten members of the Monetary Committee voted in favor of the invariance of the rate, and in an accompanying statement it was said that the FOMC does not expect a rate increase until the end of 2022. In addition, the Fed revised its forecasts for GDP and unemployment. Now the US central bank expects -6.5% of GDP in 2020 and + 5% in 2021. The unemployment rate, according to Fed Chief Jerome Powell and the company, will be 9.3% this year.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 11:

1) It is possible for EUR/USD to grow further with the goal of the resistance level of 1.1542. To do this, buyers need to continue to stay above the Kijun-sen critical line and overcome the level of 1.1417, which will confirm the readiness for new purchases. At the same time, the strength of the bulls is not unlimited, and the normal correction for the pair did not happen, so we advise you not to forget about Stop Loss. Potential Take Profit is about 100 points.

2) The second option involves consolidating the EUR/USD pair under the Kijun-sen line, which will allow sellers to again try to join the game and begin forming a downward trend. In this case, it is recommended to open sell positions with the target of 1.1157 (Senkou Span B line). The potential Take Profit in this case is 140 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 11. Nobody is interested in inflation in the United States. "Dead" negotiations between

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 97.0632

The British pound continued to rise on the third trading day of the week. At the same time, there were no reasons or grounds for this process on Wednesday, June 10. Thus, the overall picture of the situation on the international Forex market for its two main currency pairs has not changed at all during the first half of this week. The most important thing is that now it is not clear what exactly is the reason for the serious fall in the US currency in the last two weeks. There are plenty of problems in America, however, there are no fewer in the UK. No macroeconomic reports were published again in the UK yesterday. All publications on the Foggy Albion are scheduled for Friday. In the United States, a completely uninteresting consumer price index for May was published, which slowed to 0.1% in annual terms. The core consumer price index fell to 1.2% y/y. Both values were worse than forecasts and the US dollar showed even a small increase in the US trading session. Then it would be more logical to continue falling. By the way, the fall of the pair was not too strong, however, we were once again able to make sure that market participants do not pay any attention to the "foundation" and "macroeconomics".

However, for the British currency, there are several topics that it is simply impossible to pass by and forget about them as well as Donald Trump about the "coronavirus". The key topic remains Brexit and the negotiations that are underway between London and Brussels. However, unfortunately for the British pound, no progress was made during the four-week round of negotiations. Michel Barnier, the coordinator for the European Union, said: "After four rounds, I have to say that the British negotiators refuse to engage seriously with us in four main areas." Naturally, we are talking about fishing, the legal sphere, the economy, and competition. The EU also says that it is not going to force negotiations to meet the "schedule of Boris Johnson", who refuses to extend the "transition period" and is generally confident that a comprehensive agreement can be signed in 10 months. Brussels believes that if the parties fail to reach an agreement on fisheries, then the remaining issues can not be discussed since there will be no final deal.

In addition, London begins negotiations on a trade deal with Japan. It sounds optimistic, however, Japan is Britain's fourth most important non-European trading partner. While exports from Britain to the EU account for more than 50% of the total. Thus, even if the agreement with Tokyo is signed tomorrow, it will not affect the overall financial condition of the UK too much. At the same time, it is reported that the European Parliament can veto any deal with London if it does not provide reliable guarantees of fair competition and strict European standards on the environment and workers' rights. And in any case, we wrote about the low probability of signing the agreement at the beginning of the year. Now it is June and this probability has not increased by one-tenth of a percent.

However, despite all the negativity associated with the negotiations, it is the pound that is now continuing to rise in price. So the reasons for what is happening need to be sought in the United States. We have already listed possible reasons several times. Trump continues to lose support, and meanwhile, more and more members of the Republican party doubt that it is necessary to vote for Trump on November 3. On condition of anonymity, some Republicans gave interviews to the American publication The Washington Post, and it turned out that many prominent and respected politicians doubt that the current President needs to cast a vote. And, from our point of view, this is the lowest point of Donald Trump's fall – when even his party members do not want to vote for him. Of course, things may still change by November. Moreover, even if some Republicans do not want to vote for Trump, this does not mean that Americans will not vote for him. However, recent ratings say that he loses at least 14% to Joe Biden. Also, many prominent politicians and military personnel who are already retired and who have nothing to fear for their careers continue to speak out. For example, William McRaven, the Admiral who led the operation to eliminate Osama bin Laden, said: "President Trump has shown that he doesn't have the qualities necessary to be a good commander-in-chief. We have fought the coronavirus epidemic and terrible acts of racism and injustice in which the President has shown none of the leadership qualities."

On the penultimate trading day of the week in the United States, a report on applications for unemployment benefits is scheduled to be published. However, if in the first weeks of the crisis this report was taken very seriously by traders, now it is not. It is expected that the total number of applications submitted by May 29 will be 20 million, and the number of new primary applications – 1.5 million. Thus, we remain in great doubt that the unemployment rate in the US fell to 13.3% at the end of May, as the US Bureau of Statistics says. In the UK, no important information is scheduled for this day again. However, on this day, a meeting of the Eurogroup will be held, at which the issue of financing the European economy will again be decided.

Technical factors remain the most important and significant for the two main currency pairs. And all technical indicators now show an upward trend, which has no signs of ending. Moreover, there are no signs of the beginning of a downward correction. The Heiken Ashi indicator turned down several times, however, the price was never able to even work out the moving. Thus, bears are not so weak now, they are simply absent from the market. Buyers from time to time fix part of the profit on long positions, which leads to small corrections. Both channels of linear regression remain directed upward, so the trend is upward in the medium and long term.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to remain stable and is currently 125 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this indicator is "high", but not too high. On Thursday, June 11, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2632 and 1.2881. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator down will indicate a new round of corrective movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2695

S2 – 1.2634

S3 – 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2756

R2 – 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair resumed a strong upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to continue trading the pound/dollar pair for an increase with the goals of 1.2817 and 1.2881 and keep buy positions open until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to sell the pound/dollar pair when traders manage to return to the area below the moving average, with the first targets of 1.2573 and 1.2512.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 11. The collapse of Donald Trump's hegemony.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 96.5416

The EUR/USD currency pair continues its upward movement, which is very difficult to justify fundamentally. In fact, there are so many events happening in America right now that any event can negatively affect the demand for the dollar. Every day, all the news feeds are literally bursting with messages related to Donald Trump. Therefore, it is quite possible that traders simply avoid investing in a currency whose issuing country is currently experiencing a severe political crisis. Yes, it is a political crisis, and it began from the first day as Trump took office as President of the United States. However, the problem was not that "Trump was not allowed to work by the Democrats" (as the US leader himself said). The problem is Trump's very personality. We have repeatedly said that Donald Trump is a great businessman, but as the leader of the nation – an unsuitable candidate. The US President for almost 4 years of his work managed to quarrel with almost all the country's partners. Those who are stronger were able to engage in a skirmish with Washington (China, the European Union). Those who are weaker just made decisions about the duties of the White House in silence. However, the US President could not understand that the more enemies he has inside and outside the country, the more likely it is that these enemies will act against him and will not allow him to jointly win the elections in 2020. This is what we are seeing now. Every action of Trump is literally under the microscope of the media and television. Because Trump managed to throw mud at all American journalists, all media outlets, and all TV channels (except those who openly support him). However, microscopes are not needed in the case of Trump. His actions are so obvious that there is no need to look for hidden meaning or hidden motivation in them. For example, rallies began 2 weeks ago in the United States, and Trump's American population "from the most beautiful, who wants to quickly complete the quarantine and return to work" turned into "a herd of limitless people who need to be calmed with the help of the army". The fact that the rallies are mostly peaceful (which is not prohibited by US laws), Trump did not care. The most important thing is that the rallies disturbed the peace in the country, and people, instead of raising the economy from the ruins, were engaged in useless activities. Moreover, after the Pentagon refused to resort to using the army, Donald Trump immediately wanted to fire US Defense Secretary Mark Esper. This is stated by the American media, in particular The Wall Street Journal. It is reported that only after long negotiations, Trump's advisers dissuaded him from such actions. And this is Trump's policy in everything. Those who do not obey him should be dismissed. If you can't fire them, then you need to throw mud, accuse them of anything, and impose sanctions. It's as simple as five cents. And when the US leader at the end of his term lags behind his rival Joe Biden by 14%, despite the fact that Biden himself did almost nothing to get such a high rating, Trump says that a war was waged against him from the very first day as President and they say everyone does not like him, although it was he who raised the country's economy to an all-time high. Here, by the way, there is also one very significant omission. Under Trump, the country's economy did show growth (before the pandemic and crisis), but this growth began under Barack Obama. In other words, it cannot be said that it was Trump who launched a new economic program that brought the US economy to a fundamentally new level. He only continued to build on Obama's success.

Well, the situation with "coronavirus" is worthy of anthologies. This is the best guide on how not to rule a country. We do not in any way claim that China intentionally released the COVID-2019 virus. We don't know who designed it or if it was developed by people at all. However, if you look only at the facts, they are as follows: Trump has been at war with China for two years; it was from China that the "coronavirus" broke out, which tore the US economy to shreds (we very much doubt that the unemployment rate really fell to 13% instead of rising to 20%), and also exposed the US President in the most unsightly light. He put it up and continues to put it up, as Trump and his followers almost daily accuse China of all the deadly sins, but have never yet provided any evidence. The President of the United States from the very first day underestimated the virus, made statements that made doctors around the world stand on end, after which the White House stopped sanctifying the topic of the epidemic in the United States. For more than a month, Trump has not held any briefings regarding the epidemic. The country's chief epidemiologist, Anthony Fauci, who we used to see on TV almost every day and who allegedly went into self-isolation a month ago, has stopped speaking. Meanwhile, according to the Johns Hopkins Institute, the COVID-2019 virus continues to spread quietly across the United States. There is still no sign of any reduction in the rate of infection. If the contagion curves in Europe have gone sideways, which indicates a drop in the number of new infected with the virus, the same curve in the United States is directed at an angle of 45 degrees and does not change its direction. 20 states recorded a sharp increase in cases in the last 7-10 days. Moreover, some TV companies report that many states underestimate the statistics on cases. First of all, we mean the states where the growth of diseases was recorded a week ago. As well as the most populous states – California, New York, Texas, and Florida. Well, we can only guess how many new cases of infection the states will get thanks to two weeks of rallies and protests. Even now, the Johns Hopkins Institute reports a sharp increase in death forecasts for the next few months, but the country's quarantine continues to weaken. And at the same time, Donald Trump is going to hold campaign rallies across the country, as this is almost his only chance to raise his political ratings now. To be honest, we don't think Joe Biden even needs to do anything right now. Trump himself will achieve a victory for the Democrat in the election. And, of course, it should be noted that Trump is opposed not only by the population of the country but also by officials. It's not even worth talking about the Democrats, but even the Republicans themselves are starting to speak out against Trump.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of June 11 is 105 points. Thus, the indicator value is characterized as "high" due to the last five trading days. We expect the pair to move between 1.1251 and 1.1461 levels today. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a new round of downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1353

S2 – 1.1230

S3 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1475

R2 – 1.1597

R3 – 1.1719

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair resumed its upward movement. Thus, long positions with the goals of 1.1461 and 1.1597 remain relevant at this time. It is recommended to keep them open until the beginning of a new round of corrective movement. It is recommended to return to selling the pair not before fixing the price below the moving average line with the first goal of 1.1108.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com