Overview of EUR/USD on October 11th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Trump announced progress in negotiations

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 152.7148

The euro currency ends the week with an advantage over the US dollar. Although small, still an advantage. This is not to say that yesterday the euro received the support of traders due to a weak inflation report in the United States, however, the weakness of the consumer price index at least did not allow the pair to resume the downward movement. Today, October 11, one report will be published – the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. According to experts, the indicator may decrease from 93.2 to 92.0. If it turns out that the fall in consumer confidence will be more than expected now, then in the last hours of the working week, the US currency may be under pressure from traders. ECB Chief Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at the European trading session. The day before, Vice Chairman Luis De Gindos said that the regulator could lower rates even further, but he believes that "the current level of rates is the right one." Let's see how Mario Draghi thinks. In addition to these events, nothing more has been planned to date.

In the meantime, although days before information was received about the complete failure in the negotiations between China and the United States, today Donald Trump personally said that the negotiations are progressing well. On Friday, Trump is supposed to receive Vice Premier Liu He at the White House and there, most likely, the final stage of the current round of negotiations will take place. It is difficult to say which information should be trusted more. It has already happened many times that Trump spoke of "progress" or "the imminent signing of the deal," after which he abruptly announced that "China does not adhere to verbal agreements," and introduced new duties. Therefore, we recommend that you wait until official information is received with all the details. Otherwise, negotiations on a trade agreement begin to become similar to negotiations on Brexit, where for three years, information has also been received many times that "the parties have almost agreed," but then it turned out that there was nothing of the kind.

Also, Donald Trump may deliberately mislead the markets and the media, as there is no confirmation from the Chinese side about making progress in the negotiations. Thus, in practice, things may be quite different.

From a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair tried to start a downward correction, but in general, the upward mood in the forex market remains. But only in the short term. Both channels of linear regression are still directed downward, so you can expect a resumption of the downward trend at any time.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.0986

S2 – 1.0925

S3 – 1.0864

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1047

R2 – 1.1108

R3 – 1.1169

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair continues to be located above the moving average line, so today it is recommended to reconsider the purchases of the euro currency in small lots with the target of 1.1047. The pair's sales will become relevant not earlier than the reverse consolidation under the moving average line with a target of 1.0925.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue lines of the unidirectional motion.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple lines of the unidirectional motion.

CCI– the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Control zones NZDUSD 10/11/19

Holding the price below the weekly CZ 0.6321-0.6333 indicates the interest of major players. To continue the growth, it will be necessary to close today's US session above the level of 0.6333. If this happens, the beginning of next week will give the opportunity to look for favorable prices for the purchase of the instrument.

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Work in the upward direction is a priority, therefore, the retention of purchases opened yesterday after the WCZ 1/2 test is the main plan for the end of this week.

Now, there is a formation of a local accumulation zone, so the main trade is to work inside the flat. The weekly control zone and the formation of the "false breakdown" pattern will allow you to enter the short position. The target of the reduction will again be WCZ 1/2 0.6275-0.6269, where sales fixation will be required.

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Daily CZ – daily control zone. An area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly KZ – weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly KZ – monthly control zone. An area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 10/11/2019 and a trading recommendation

What happened yesterday with the pound can only be called euphoria, or ecstasy. No other epithets will reflect the fullness of emotions that forced traders to buy the pound en masse. This is the only way to describe the market reaction to the results of the meeting between Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar. The prime ministers of Great Britain and Ireland were extremely optimistic about the meeting, and said that great progress had been achieved that would allow the resumption of negotiations between London and Brussels as soon as possible, as well as achieve mutual understanding on the divorce deal. That alone was enough for the pound to jump a little over two hundred points.

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However, there is no doubt that the pound's growth is solely due to emotions. Neither Boris Johnson, nor Leo Varadkar, revealed the exact issues on which they found a compromise. But most importantly, this does not mean that Brussels will agree to take into account the agreements reached. Especially if they contradict the basic principles of the same agreement, which the House of Commons has already rejected three times. First you need to resume negotiations between London and Brussels, and today the meeting is scheduled for the main negotiator on the part of the European Union, Michel Barnier, and Brexit's Minister for Affairs, Steve Barclay. They should outline a plan of action for the early conclusion of a divorce agreement between London and Brussels. So the process is clearly delayed, and will not be so swift. You can be absolutely certain that it will not be easy.

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Moreover, if we look at the statistics, the pound's growth, to put it mildly, was somewhat unreasonable. The fact is that the state of industry in the United Kingdom, at the very least, is worrying. Yesterday's data showed that the decline in industry deepened from -1.1% to -1.8%. The negotiations can inspire optimism and hope as much as you like, but in fact, the real state of affairs in the economy, just terrible, and it would be better if all these high-level meetings have begun to bear real fruit.

Industrial Production (UK):

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There are no releases of macroeconomic today. So investors will have a great opportunity to carefully look at the real state of the British economy. No one will be pleased once it is clearly seen. Just another streamlined phrase about moving in the right direction, without any specifics, also somewhat reduce the optimism that was caused by yesterday's meeting of Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar.

The GBP/USD pair once again found a foothold in the face of the value of 1.2200, slowing down and, as a fact, bouncing in the opposite direction. The volatility of the past day was extremely high amid the information flow, as I wrote above, as a result of which the quotation flew to the value of 1.2467, where it slightly slowed down. Looking at the trading chart in general terms, we see that an oblong correction is still being maintained in the market, with the price almost returning to a peak.

It is likely to assume that this kind of impulsive move has greatly overheated long positions, and a stop with a subsequent recovery move can be expected in the region of the available coordinates.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider long positions in terms of residual reaction, where in case of price consolidation higher than 1.2470, we can head towards 1.2500.

- We consider short positions in terms of recovery, where within the range of 1.2415-1.2410, you can think about positions in the direction of 1.2380 -> 1.2350.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators against the background of a recent surge in prices, all together turned upside down to signal purchases. It is likely to assume that in the event of a slowdown and subsequent recovery, we will see changes in indicators, starting from the minute interval.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 11, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the price will move up, with the first target of 1.2511 - the resistance line (blue bold line). From this level, a rollback is possible.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the price may continue to move up.

The first upper target of 1.2511 is the resistance line (blue bold line).

An unlikely scenario is a downward movement with a target pullback level of 23.6% - 1.2406 (red dotted line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 11, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the market may attempt to break the resistance line 1.1031 (blue bold line) once again. If successful, it will rush to the goal 1.1056 - a pullback level of 76.4% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - the top;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, an upward movement is possible.

The upper target of 1.1031 is the resistance line (blue bold line).

From the level of 1.1031, you can work down with the target of 1.0998 - a pullback level of 23.6% (yellow dashed line).

An unlikely scenario - from the level of 1.1031, moving up to the target of 1.1056 - a pullback level of 76.4% (blue dashed line).

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 11/10/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The chairman of the US Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) believes that Ether is a commodity and trading ETH futures will become a reality.

Heath Tarbert, the new president of CFTC, who took over the position of J. Christopher Giancarlo in July, presented his position on Ether, other cryptocurrencies and forked coins during the financial event Yahoo Finance Summit All Markets Summit.

Although the CFTC made it very clear that Bitcoin is a commodity, it is reported that for the first time the authority presented the vision of Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization. In addition, as the publication notes, the chairman of the CFTC also expects to trade Ethereum futures contracts on US markets.

"We spoke clearly about Bitcoin: Bitcoin is a commodity. We have not spoken anything about Ether - until now. [...] In my opinion, as president of CFTC, Ether is a commodity," he said.

According to the publication, Tarbert acknowledges the existing uncertainty about the status of altcoins. He claimed, however, that similar digital assets should be treated in a similar way.

Tarbert suggested that forked cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin Cash or Ethereum Classic - those that are derived from the original underlying Blockchain - should be treated the same as the original assets. At the same time, the chair noted that the status of a forked coin could change if "the fork itself raises some issues with securities law as part of this classic Howey test."

"It is obvious that similar assets should be treated in a similar way. If the underlying asset, the original digital asset, was not specified as a security, and therefore is a commodity, most likely the forked resource will be the same," he said.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $195.88 and reversed immediately, hence the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern has been made. The bears are currently testing the local technical support located at the level of $185.05, but any violation of the level of $195.88 will lead to another leg up towards the technical resistance seen at the level of $202.70 and $215.73. The confirmation of the bottom of the wave (C) at the level of $151.30 will take place when bulls will break through the wave (B) top at the level of $223.50.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $200.05

WR2 - $192.33

WR1 - $180.15

Weekly Pivot - $172.02

WS1 - $159.46

WS2 - $151.65

WS3 - $138.64

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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GBP/USD. Brexit formula: many unknowns and the "Varadkar factor"

The pound paired with the dollar jumped more than 250 points yesterday - this is the highest intraday growth over the past seven months. Even without opening the information feed, it was possible to draw an unmistakable conclusion that such a take-off was due to the Brexit question: macroeconomic reports - even the most important ones - now practically do not affect the dynamics of the British currency. For example, yesterday the GBP/USD pair updated an almost 3-week high amid disappointing data on the growth of the British economy and industrial production. This suggests that the pound is slightly susceptible to any forecasts, both long-term and short-term. Nevertheless, there are certain patterns in the behavior of the pound, even in conditions of "emotional instability".

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In just a week, the EU summit will take place, at which once again the fate of Brexit will be decided. In anticipation of this event, the degree of incandescence rises, and any news regarding the prospects of the "divorce proceedings" throws the pound from side to side. So, literally at the beginning of this week, the GBP/USD pair fell from the middle of the 23rd figure to the bottom of the 22nd, on the news that Angela Merkel actually put an end to the negotiations. Although in this case the market was dealing with unofficial information, the pound slumped, having lost over 150 points in a few days.

Reasons for pessimism were: according to an insider, the German Chancellor criticized Johnson's latest proposals regarding the Irish border, saying that the deal is "unlikely" to be concluded on such terms. Merkel's position was consistent with the official comments of many European politicians, including among the EU leadership (with the exception of Juncker, who remains optimistic on this issue). Therefore, GBP/USD buyers again lost their hands: they could only hope for a prolonged negotiation process, with subsequent elections to the British Parliament, where hawkish conservatives could only strengthen their positions, thereby tightening relations with Brussels. Such prospects put significant pressure on the pound, and only the weakness of the US currency kept the GBP/USD pair within the 22nd figure - otherwise the price would have been in the region of annual lows.

Amid such "hopeless pessimism", yesterday's statement by Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar made a deafening effect. After all, it was just recently that he was among the first to criticize the latest proposals of Boris Johnson on the creation of a "translucent" border with the simultaneous granting of a veto to the legislative body of Northern Ireland. The head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, supported Varadkar, saying that the European Union would defend a solidarity position with Dublin. In other words, it was the prime minister of the Republic of Ireland who became the main opponent of the new proposals of the British prime minister, after which his position was supported in Brussels.

Now the situation has turned around 180 degrees.

Following the results of yesterday's dialogue with Boris Johnson, Leo Varadkar announced that their meeting was "promising and extremely positive." Such diplomatic curtsies are formal in nature, and therefore have been ignored by the market. But further Irish rhetoric forced traders to reconsider their positions on the pound. He said that given Johnson's "updated proposals," the deal could be concluded as early as the next few weeks, that is, until October 31. Unfortunately, Varadkar did not specify what kind of proposals are in question. He vaguely commented enough on the outcome of their conversation: "what happened today at the meeting will become the basis for new negotiations in Brussels." However, what exactly "happened" at their meeting remained a mystery. The only thing the Irish prime minister mentioned was some "customs issues", concessions on which should be discussed in a more expanded format. He also said that at the moment all the negotiators are willing to conclude a deal in the framework of the upcoming summit.

Thus, Leo Varadkar voiced truly optimistic theses, but without any details. It is worth recalling that over the past three years, such situations have repeatedly emerged when representatives of one of the sides of the triangle "EU - British Government - British Parliament" came up with compromise proposals. However, at the stage of coordination with other participants in the negotiation process, the initial optimism faded, as the parties could not crystallize the consolidated position.

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In this case, it is difficult to talk about the prospects for the development of the situation, due to the lack of information. After all, we don't know what exactly Johnson proposed to Varadkar and how exactly Brussels and the British Parliament will respond to these proposals. Let me remind you that Theresa May once agreed on a draft deal with the EU, but was never able to convince MPs to ratify the agreement. Whether Johnson will repeat May's fate in this regard is an open question.

I believe that in the near future we will learn from official or unofficial sources what exactly was discussed at the meeting of the prime ministers. And depending on the reaction of the deputies and EU leaders, the pound will determine the vector of its movement. If the option of concluding a deal really appears on the horizon (even with a forced extension of the negotiation process until January 2020), the pound will strengthen by several more figures. Otherwise, the GBP/USD pair will return to the area of 21-22 figures with possible tests of the area of annual lows.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 11/10/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Bitwise Asset Management and NYSE Arca after the US regulatory authorities rejected the Bitcoin ETF fund, confirmed that they would resubmit it. According to the published press release, the companies said that while the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected the ETF application, they are happy about the progress.

The verdict on the ETF Bitwise proposal had many delays before the final decision that was made this week - the SEC had no choice under the laws and had to make it.

"We greatly appreciate the careful review of the SEC. The detailed feedback they provided provides a critical context and a clear path for ETF applicants to continue working on listing Bitcoin ETFs. [...] We look forward to further productive cooperation with the SEC to address their remaining concerns and we are going to resubmit the application as soon as it is appropriate "- we read.

Bitcoin markets, when news came about the last rejection of the application, remained stable. Earlier, Bitwise was particularly convinced that the application could be considered positive this time. "We're closer than ever to get Bitcoin ETF approval," Matt Hougan told major media on October 7.

Nevertheless, more than a year's dialogue with regulators was not for nothing, says the company, concluding:

"Although we have not been able to dispel SEC's concerns as part of the statutory 240-day review period that these reports provide, and although they have identified the need for additional data and context to interpret our key findings, we are pleased with the industry's progress and believe that thanks to additional research and further progress in the wider ecosystem, remaining concerns will be dispelled. "

In September, another ETF proposal, this time from VanEck and SolidX, was withdrawn by sponsors. At the same time, the SEC delayed its ruling on Wilshire Phoenix's third bid.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has hit 38% of the Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down located at the level of $8,671 and reversed immediately. Despite the fact, that the new local high was made at the level of $8,759, the momentum is clearly decreasing, so if this will be the impulsive wave upward, then the low located at the level of $7,676 will be confirmed as the bottom for the wave (c) of wave (A) and the market will develop the wave (B) of the overall corrective move. Currently, the bears are preparing to test the technical support at the level of $8,282 and if this level is violated then the next support is located at the level of $8,102.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,064

WR2 - $8,729

WR1 - $8,221

Weekly Pivot - $7,955

WS1 - $7,433

WS2 - $7,138

WS3 - $6,572

Trading recommendations:

Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 11/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has bounced from the technical support at the level of 1.2231 in a spectacular way as the enormous Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern had been made at the H4 timeframe chart. During this move up, the technical resistance located at the level of 1.2411 has been violated and will act now as a support for the price. The local high was made at the level of 1.246, so traders should have in mind, that a clear breakout above the level of 1.2411 will open the road towards the next technical resistance located at the level of 1.2504. It is worth to keep an eye on the current market situation.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2623

WR2 - 1.2518

WR1 - 1.2423

Weekly Pivot - 1.2315

WS1 - 1.2215

WS2 - 1.2101

WS3 - 1.2006

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2504 and it must be clearly violated. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key short-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.2381. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on October 11. The pound rose after the meeting of the prime ministers of Great Britain

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The British pound strengthened after the meeting of the two prime ministers, however, if you look at the minutes in more detail, in fact, the negotiations did not bring any result. The only thing that inspires optimism among traders is an agreement to continue negotiations on the border issue, since even yesterday the prime minister of Ireland was categorically against any meetings. Buyers need to regain the resistance of 1.2445 today, which could trigger a new wave of purchases to the highs of 1.2484 and 1.2527, where I recommend taking profits. Under the scenario of GBP/USD decline in the morning, long positions can be returned after updating the lows of 1.2385 and 1.2353.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Today, an important meeting of EU and UK representatives on the Brexit issue will take place, on which it will depend whether the pound continues to grow or the bears return to the market. The formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.2445, or a test of a new high at 1.2484, with confirmation of divergence on the MACD indicator - all this will be the first signal to open short positions in the calculation of a downward correction in the support area of 1.2385 and 1.2353, where I recommend taking profit. In the scenario of further growth of GBP/USD, after the publication of the results of the above meeting, it is best to return to short positions to rebound from the highs of 1.2527 and 1.2570.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the maintenance of a bullish trend.

Bollinger bands

Under the scenario of pound decline, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.2385. Growth will be limited by the upper level at 1.2560.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 11/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has broken through the key technical resistance level located at the level of 1.0999 and make a local high at the level of 1.1033. The momentum is still strong and positive, which supports the short-term bullish outlook. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1075 - 1.1091 zone and the immediate technical support is located at the level of 1.0999. Please remember, that the higher timeframe trend is still bearish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1156

WR2 - 1.1079

WR1 - 1.1037

Weekly Pivot - 1.0957

WS1 - 1.0918

WS2 - 1.0839

WS3 - 1.0797

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0926 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on October 11. German inflation and Mario Draghi's speech may put pressure on the

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Data on inflation in the US yesterday did not support the US dollar, which left the market on the side of buyers of the euro. Today, all attention will be focused on the inflation report in Germany and the statement by the President of the European Central Bank Marie Draghi. At the moment, EUR/USD growth is limited by the resistance of 1.1033, and only going beyond its margins will keep the growth, which will lead to the renewal of the highs of 1.1067 and 1.1109, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of a downward correction, which can be formed after the fundamental data is released, it is best to return to long positions on the update of support at 1.1005, provided that there is a false breakdown there, or a rebound from a larger low of 1.0975.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers are in no hurry to return to the market, focusing on the inflation report and on negotiations between the US and China. Only bad news can increase the pressure on the euro, and the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1033 will be a direct signal to open short positions, in the hope of updating support at 1.1005. However, a more important task, which is realized under the scenario of failed negotiations between the US and China, will be consolidating below this support, which will quickly pull down EUR/USD to the lows of 1.0975 and 1.0943, where I recommend taking profit. If the demand for the euro continues in the morning, and inflation data in the eurozone countries, especially Germany, will please traders, it is best to return to short positions only after a test of a high at 1.1067 and a rebound from 1.1109.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is slightly higher than 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the bullish momentum will be maintained.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.1005 will increase pressure on the euro.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones USDCAD 10/10/19

Yesterday's move may be decisive for next week. Closing trades below WCZ 1/4 1.3303-1.3299 indicates an increase in the likelihood of a decline to 70%. The purpose of the fall is WCZ 1/2 1.3259-1.3250. Testing this area will close part of the sales. The rest should be transferred to breakeven in case of continued downward movement.

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The medium-term outlook for the decline can be assessed as updating the October low. This model will become relevant if the pair consolidates below the WCZ 1/2.

An alternative growth model will be developed if the pair stops at WCZ 1/2 and a false breakout pattern is formed. This will lead to a sharp increase in demand and the resumption of upward movement. This model should be considered along with the bear one.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for October 11 - 2019

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GBP/JPY is accelerating higher and the break above 132.24 is a clear indication that red wave ii finally has completed and red wave iii towards 139.15 now is developing.

Support is now seen near 133.31 which is expected to protect the downside for a continuation higher to the solid resistance at 135.75. This resistance may be able to cap the upside temporary but is should only be a matter of time before this resistance is broken too and a continuation higher to 139.15 should be seen.

R3: 135.75

R2: 135.25

R1: 135.06

Pivot: 134.55

S1: 133.97

S2: 133.31

S3: 132.92

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 131.25 and we will move our stop higher to break-even

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 11 - 2019

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EUR/JPY has rallied nicely after the expected dip into the 117.54 - 117.61 area. This rally is likely to push the pair higher if only it is not interrupted by minor corrections as wave iii heads towards the minimum target at 121.93.

Support is currently seen at 118.65 which ideally will protect the downside for a continuation higher to 119.60 on the way higher to 121.93 and above.

R3: 119.60

R2: 119.23

R1: 119.01

Pivot: 118.65

S1: 118.42

S2: 118.18

S3: 118.04

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 and we will move our stop higher to 117.50

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, October 11,2019

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When the European market opens, German Final CPI m/m will be released. The US will publish such economic data as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Import Prices m/m. So, amid the reports ,EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:Breakout BUY Level: 1.1066. Strong Resistance:1.1060. Original Resistance: 1.1049. Inner Sell Area: 1.1038.Target Inner Area: 1.1012. Inner Buy Area: 1.0986. Original Support: 1.0975. Strong Support: 1.0964. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0958. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, October 11, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the M2 Money Stock y/y and the US will also publish some economic data such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Import Prices m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 108.56. Resistance. 2: 108.35. Resistance. 1: 108.14. Support. 1: 107.87. Support. 2: 107.66. Support. 3: 107.45.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 11, 2019

EUR/USD

The euro closed yesterday with a rise of 34 points on information about the readiness of the US and China to conclude an interim trade agreement - "comprehensive," according to Trump, the parties will not have time to conclude a trade deal purely technically. China is ready to increase purchases of American agricultural products. In business media, the growth of the euro on this news is explained as investors withdrawing from the safe-haven currency (dollar) and their willingness to buy risk (stocks). But the fact is that this trade agreement is more profitable for the United States, therefore, revaluation of this event will soon come and the dollar will strengthen. At the same time, the main impulse in the market was given by the strongest growth of the British pound on the news about a likely Brexit deal.

On the daily chart, the price is trying to break above the red indicator line of balance with the support of the growing line of the Marlin oscillator. But the MACD line is close (1.1042), when touched by the price it can return under the balance line. This is our scenario for today.

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In the future, following our basic outline of the strengthening of the dollar, we expect the euro to decline to the Fibonacci level of 138.2% (1.0985). Price growth to the Fibonacci level of 123.6% is possible after the release above 1.1042. Even higher growth, to 1.1126, is possible only with new, no less strong fundamental news, for example, failed data on the US retail sales and industrial production next week.

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On a four-hour chart, the price is higher than both indicator lines, but Marlin is in no hurry to increase, which sets the stage for a reversal divergence.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on October 11, 2019

GBP/USD

On Thursday, the British pound showed enchanting growth of 238 points on the news of the preliminary agreement of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson with Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar on customs and border issues under the Brexit agreement. No details of the arrangements were made, but markets rallied and outstripped the events. The EU expressed its willingness to postpone the Brexit date. Everything will be decided at the emergency EU summit next week.

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The pound is not far from the embedded line of the falling price channel, to the target of 1.2490. Price output above resistance may still continue to rise to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.2548. The Marlin oscillator is not growing willingly, this indicates that the market is not ready to pick up growth. According to dealers, it occurred mainly due to broken restrictive orders of sellers. Indeed, there are no fundamental reasons for purchases - only brief information on the readiness to resolve the customs issue has passed.

So, we are waiting for the correctional decline of the British pound to achieve the first goal of 1.2490, or the second goal 1.2548.

On a four-hour chart, the price is above the indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator in the growth zone, shows the first signs of cooling.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on October 11, 2019

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar, as expected, closed the gap at the opening of the week and today in the Asian session it reached the MACD line on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator has penetrated the territory of the "bulls", and this may be a condition for a slight increase - either to the blue line of the price channel (0.6788) or to the red line of the price channel (0.6805). From this range, a price reversal is likely, or at least a correctional decline.

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On a four-hour chart, the price is supported by the balance line, the Marlin oscillator does not rise in the growth zone. While there are no clear signs of a reversal, we are carefully waiting for the continuation of the current trend.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on October 11

Forecast for October 11:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1091, 1.1069, 1.1058, 1.1039, 1.1000, 1.0986, 1.0966 and 1.0939. Here, we determined the subsequent goals for the top from the local ascending structure on October 8. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1039. In this case, the target is 1.1058. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1058 - 1.1069. We consider the level of 1.1091 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 1.1000 - 1.0986. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.0966. This level is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward movement. In this case, the target is 1.0939.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure from October 1, the local structure from October 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1040 Take profit: 1.1058

Buy 1.1070 Take profit: 1.1090

Sell: 1.1000 Take profit: 1.0987

Sell: 1.0984 Take profit: 1.0966

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2665, 1.2562, 1.2525, 1.2477, 1.2396, 1.2358 and 1.2296. Here, the ascending structure of October 9 is considered to be a potential initial conditions for the ascending cycle. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2477. Here, the target is 1.2525. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.2525 - 1.2562. The breakdown of the level of 1.2562 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2665.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2396 - 1.2358. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2296. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of October 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2478 Take profit: 1.2525

Buy: 1.2563 Take profit: 1.2665

Sell: 1.2396 Take profit: 1.2358

Sell: 1.2355 Take profit: 1.2297

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0027, 0.9999, 0.9974, 0.9957, 0.9921, 0.9892, 0.9872 and 0.9845. Here, we follow the development of the descending structure of October 3. The continuation of the development of the downward trend is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9921. In this case, the target is 0.9892. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9892 - 0.9872. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9845. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 0.9957 - 0.9974. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9999. This level is a key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will have the potential for the development of the upward movement. Here, the potential goal is 1.0027.

The main trend is the descending structure of October 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9976 Take profit: 0.9999

Buy : 1.0003 Take profit: 1.0027

Sell: 0.9920 Take profit: 0.9892

Sell: 0.9870 Take profit: 0.9845

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.90, 108.72, 108.39, 108.14, 107.80, 107.64, 107.44 and 107.30. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 4. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 108.14. In this case, the target is 108.39. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 108.40 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 108.72. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.90. Upon reaching which, we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 107.80 - 107.64. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 107.44. The range 107.44 - 107.30 is the key support for the top.

The main trend: the upward cycle of October 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.15 Take profit: 108.36

Buy : 108.40 Take profit: 108.70

Sell: 107.80 Take profit: 107.65

Sell: 107.62 Take profit: 107.45

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3326, 1.3315, 1.3298, 1.3264, 1.3251, 1.3240 and 1.3209 and 1.3189. Here, we are following the formation of the potential for the downward movement of October 10. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3264. In this case, the target is 1.3251. Price consolidation is near this level. Passing at a price of the noise range 1.3251 - 1.3240 will lead to the development of pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 1.3209. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3189. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

A correction is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3298. Here, the target is 1.3315. The range 1.3315 - 1.3326 is the key support for the downward structure from October 10. Its passage at the price will lead to the formation of a local upward structure. In this case, the target is 1.3347.

The main trend is the formation of the downward movement potential of October 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3300 Take profit: 1.3315

Buy : 1.3326 Take profit: 1.3345

Sell: 1.3264 Take profit: 1.3251

Sell: 1.3240 Take profit: 1.3210

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6868, 0.6838, 0.6815, 0.6782, 0.6772, 0.6756, 0.6730 and 0.6710. Here, the price has formed a local potential for continuing the development of the upward trend of October 2. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the passage at the price of the noise range 0.6772 - 0.6782. In this case, the target is 0.6815. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range 0.6815 - 0.6838. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6868. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6840.

Consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 0.6730 - 0.6710. The breakdown of the latter value will have a downward trend. Here, the potential target is 0.6668.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 2, the local structure for the top of October 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6782 Take profit: 0.6815

Buy: 0.6817 Take profit: 0.6836

Sell : 0.6730 Take profit : 0.6712

Sell: 0.6708 Take profit: 0.6670

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.62, 119.23, 119.06, 118.70, 118.54 and 118.29. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 4. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 119.06 - 119.23. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 119.62. We expect a rollback to correction from this level.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 118.70 - 118.54. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 118.29. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.07 Take profit: 119.23

Buy: 119.25 Take profit: 119.60

Sell: 118.70 Take profit: 118.55

Sell: 118.52 Take profit: 118.30

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 137.64, 136.11, 135.53, 134.76, 133.52, 132.90 and 132.00. Here, we are following the formation of the expressed initial conditions for the top of October 8. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 134.76. In this case, the target is 135.53. Price consolidation is in the range 135.53 - 136.11. The breakdown of the level of 136.11 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 137.64. We expect consolidation near this level.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 133.52 - 132.90. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 132.00. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of medium-term initial conditions for the top of October 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.76 Take profit: 135.50

Buy: 136.11 Take profit: 137.60

Sell: 133.50 Take profit: 132.90

Sell: 132.85 Take profit: 132.00

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It is still hard to believe in a conclusion of the US and Chinese trade deal, as well as in a reversal of EUR/USD

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While FOMC members ponder when to put an end to the process of easing monetary policy for preventive purposes, investors are wondering what to expect from the next round of U-China trade talks.

The US currency reacted quite calmly to the publication of the minutes of the September meeting of the Federal Reserve. The regulator lowered the federal funds rate to 2%, since, according to his estimates, the risks of a slowdown in the US economy have increased since the July FOMC meeting. The Fed calls trade tensions and uncertainty about economic development the main factors that weigh on exports, industrial production and business investment. At the same time, some officials believe that the central bank should give specific signals about the cessation of the reduction in interest rates for preventive purposes.

It should be recognized that at present there is a serious discrepancy between FOMC point forecasts and market expectations regarding the weakening of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.

Minutes of the Fed showed that 7 out of 17 FOMC members expect a federal funds rate between 1.5% and 1.75% by the end of the year, 5 believe that it should remain unchanged (at 1.75% –2.00 %), another 5 do not exclude a higher level of interest (2.00% –2.25%).

The derivatives market estimates the chances that the Fed will lower the interest rate once by 25 basis points, by 92%, by the end of the year. The probability of two reductions of 50 basis points is at 52%.

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The minutes of the September meeting of the FOMC also confirmed on Tuesday a statement made by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the central bank would resume the purchase of assets. This step will expand the balance of the regulator.

According to Alan Ruskin of Deutsche Bank, if market expectations remain overestimated, then the US dollar as a reaction to the reduction in the federal funds rate will become cheaper by no more than 1% at the end of October.

"The final communique of the October meeting of the Fed is likely to be less dovish than the September instruction. This will not be an additional incentive to sell the US currency," the expert says.

"The USD rate will continue to grow until the end of the year, and even the daily injections of liquidity into the repo market from the Fed will not stop it," UBS strategists say.

According to them, the Fed's actions are more like a technical "twist" of the repo market than a full-fledged asset purchase program (QE).

"The foreign exchange market has not yet responded to the infusion of liquidity by the US regulator, and therefore investors do not consider these measures as a new direction of monetary policy. We believe that only new cuts in Fed rates and some improvement in the prospects for the global economy will be able to curb the growth of the dollar. In addition, in the past, there was no direct and stable correlation between the dynamics of the Fed balance and the USD exchange rate. In general, the greenback tended to get cheaper during three QE rounds in 2009-2013, but there were a lot of exceptions to this rule," UBS noted.

Amid growing positive sentiment regarding US-Chinese trade negotiations to resume in Washington today, the EUR/USD pair finally managed to overcome key resistance at 1.10, as a result of which it jumped to two-week highs.

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According to Bloomberg, this time the parties will try to conclude a partial agreement on currency regulation. In addition, the New York Times reported that the White House plans to ease restrictions for US companies on the ban on the sale of its products to the telecommunications giant Huawei, as well as to refrain from introducing a new package of duties on Chinese imports next week. In turn, Beijing promised to increase the volume of purchases of agricultural products from the United States.

Counting on something more is not necessary now. Contradictions remain between the parties on other issues; moreover, they continue to exchange unfriendly statements. Apparently, even the cessation of the mutual increase in tariffs and the desire of both parties to meet again can be considered progress.

Optimists believe: the owner of the White House is beginning to realize that duties harm the US economy and, in order to prevent its serious slowdown on the eve of the 2020 presidential election, he will make concessions. Pessimists believe that the United States does not intend to abandon the idea of raising tariffs, because, according to the US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, it works: duties forced China to pay attention to US problems.

Thus, a serious breakthrough in trade relations between Washington and Beijing is not worth the wait.

The EUR/USD pair managed to break through the upper limit of the short-term consolidation range of 1.096–1.10, however, it can be attacked by "bears" if it is near 1.1045–1.1065.

The euro is gaining points amid a weakening greenback, which faced sales due to the possible conclusion of a trade agreement between the US and China, but from a fundamental point of view, the single European currency has no long-term drivers for growth.

The eurozone economy continues to slow down, which justifies the ECB's decision to soften monetary policy and keep interest rates low for a longer period. In addition, the United States can still impose duties on European imports, and the Brexit issue has not yet been resolved, which makes the EU's more bleak economic prospects even more pessimistic. All this is fraught with bearish sentiments regarding the euro.

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GBP/USD: pound is growing on rumors and prepares for the EU summit

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After several days of decline, the British currency sharply jumped at Wednesday morning trading. The reason for what happened was the news that several Conservatives may refuse to support the exit without a deal. The pound was later supported by reports that the EU was ready to make concessions on the Irish border.

However, the latest news was quickly denied in the EU and in the ranks of the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland. As a result, the pound descended from heaven to earth, ending yesterday near the $1.22 mark.

Today, the British currency was able to somewhat recover the losses amid the publication of a report on national GDP. In June-August, the indicator increased by 0.3% compared with the previous three-month period.

Apparently, the quotes have not yet laid out the scenario for Britain to exit the EU without a deal. Investors still believe that the parties will conclude an agreement at the last moment, and any signals that this is possible serve as a driver pushing the pound up.

According to representatives of the government's office and MPs, the House of Commons will hold an emergency meeting on October 19, which will take place immediately after the end of the EU summit and on the day when, according to the law adopted in September, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will have to submit to the legislators a "divorce" agreement agreed upon with Brussels.

Most likely, MPs will try to influence the prime minister so that he asks the EU to postpone the country's withdrawal from the EU, and take away from the government the right to determine the agenda of the chamber. In turn, Johnson can vote on the choice between deferring Brexit and leaving the EU without an agreement.

However, what issues will be considered at the emergency meeting and how it will end, no one undertakes to predict now. It is possible that on this day the fate of Brexit and B. Johnson himself as a prime minister may be decided.

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