Fundamental Analysis of USDJPY for April 29, 2019

USD is expected to continue strengthening against JPY ahead of the Federal Funds and NFP reports scheduled for this week. The yen is affected by the mixed economic reports and likely to give in if the US reports come out strong, like the recent Advance GDP.

Thus, the US dollar is anticipated to firm against the yen in the coming days. The hopes of Donald Trump for re-election have always hinged on supercharging the US economy, and data showing faster than expected growth provided him a boost just as he was preparing to ramp up his campaign. The gross domestic product rose at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2019.

Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for April tops the list of data releases this week. Economists anticipate a gain of 181,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 3.8%. The American economy added 196,000 jobs in March, rebounding after just 33,000 jobs were added in the previous month. Moreover, evaluating the recent data, consumer confidence is expected to be boosted by equity market gains and the ongoing strength in the jobs market. This will be underlined by another decent rise in payrolls and a renewed uptick in wage growth after last month's surprise dip.

On Wednesday, the outcome of the FOMC meeting and the Federal Funds Rate report are going to be published. The regulator's interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.50%. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference following the meeting, investors await his insights on the policy outlook.

Today's US Core PCE Price Index is anticipated to inch up to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%, Personal Spending is also expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%, and the Personal Income is to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2% as well.

On the JPY side, the Bank of Japan is still projecting a moderate expansion of the economy with weaker exports due to the global economic slowdown. The Bank intends to keep the current interest rate unchanged for an extended period and plans to purchase the Japanese government bonds (JGBs) so that 10-year JGB Yields remains at around 0%. The Japanese regulator decided to examine the uncertainties about the economic activity along with the effect of the scheduled consumption tax hike and planned to continue the QQE on an extreme level. The extreme QQE might make the yen weaker against all other major currencies.

The bank forecasts a strong labor market with the consumer price index below a 2% target. The industrial production showed a weaker-than-expected result and dropped from 1.4% to 0.7%. The retail sales index increased to 1.0%. The trade Balance came in at -0.18T, while the forecast was -e30T. As a result, the market is expected to be volatile. The final Manufacturing PMI scheduled for this week is going to remain unchanged at 49.5.

Currently, the upcoming economic reports from the United States provide support for the greenback which is likely to gain further momentum. However, any disappointing news may slow it down.

Now, let us look at the technical view. The pair has a strong bullish trend. It is likely to move higher after it has recently bounced from the 111.35-50 support area with a daily close. Moreover, it might jump much higher towards the 114.50-115.00 area in the coming days. As far as the price remains above 110.00 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

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EUR./USD analysis for April 29, 2019

EURUSD is trading sideways in past 24h at the price of 1.1151. The strong impulsive upward movement in the background is present and you should still watch for buying opportunities.

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Orange rectangle – Short-term resistance, which became key support

Yellow large diagonal – Resistance based on price action

EURUSD is in creation of the potential bullish flag just after the breakout of the supply trendline (orange) in the background. In the near term we see potential for more upside on the EUR especially since we found strong bullish divergence on the 1H+4H time-frames. Upward references are seen at the price of 1.1191 and 1.1220. Key support remains at the price of 1.1114. Watch for buying opportunities if you see potential breakout of the bullish flag.

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Analysis of Gold for April 29, 2019

Gold traded lower in past 24h period but it is on critical support at $1.279.00 and selling at the support looks very risky. We are expecting further upside and potential test of the upward references.

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Yellow rectangle – Short-term resistance, which became key support

Green rectangle – Resistance based on price action

Green rectangle – Resistance 2 based on price action

Green rectangle – Resistance 3 based on price action

Gold is testing the key support at $1.278.00. Our advice is to watch for buying opportunities. Upward references are set at the price of $1.294.30, $1.300.95 and $1.310.00. As long as the Gold is trading above the $1.265.00, the short term-trend remains bullish. Medium Keltner average (20EMA) is acting like support, which adds more potential for upside.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 29, 2019

BTC price did break the bearish flag pattern in the background, which is sign for further downward movement. The resistance at $5.441 didn't hold like support, which is another sign that buyers lack power for any larger break.

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Yellow upward channel – Bearish flag pattern

Lower big diagonal - major short-term support

We found big bearish divergence on MACD oscillator on the H4 time-frame, which is strong sign that weakness is coming. Support levels are seen at the price of $5.052 and $4.811. Key resistance levels are set at the price of $5.518 and $5.644. Since the strong impulsive downward wave in the background, we expect at least testing of $5.052. Watch for selling opportunities.

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EURUSD: Eurozone lending slowed, consumer and company confidence declined

Buyers of the European currency failed to cling to a large resistance level around 1.1180 and did not update it, and weak data released in the first half of the day on consumer confidence in the eurozone and lower lending, discouraged any interest from large players in the short-term purchase of risky assets.

According to the report, growth in lending to companies by banks in the eurozone slowed in March after a slight increase in February of this year, indicating a weakening growth in the region's economy.

The report of the European Central Bank indicated that lending to companies in March of this year increased by 3.5% compared with the same period of the previous year, after growing by 3.8% in February.

Household lending grew in March only by 3.2 % compared with the same period of the previous year, after rising 3.3% in February. I recall that the economy of the eurozone, like other developed countries, is highly dependent on the availability of financing and lending, and a decline in these indicators may indicate likely problems in the future.

The M3 monetary aggregate rose by 4.5% in March compared with the same period of the previous year, against a 4.3% increase in February. Economists had expected a growth of 4.2%.

The euro was also influenced by data on the sentiment index in the eurozone economy, which, given the indicator of confidence among producers and consumers, fell to 104.0 points in April against 105.6 in March of this year. Economists had expected the index to be 105.0 points in April.

Eurozone producers were more pessimistic in April, as eurozone exports remain rather weak, which worsens prospects. According to the data, the industrial sentiment index in April 2019 fell to -4 points against -1.6 points in March. The index of confidence in the eurozone industry for April was projected at -2.0 points.

As I noted above, the quarterly index of export expectations showed a particularly strong drop.

The consumer confidence index in the eurozone also fell slightly in April, reaching -7.9 points against -7.2 points in March. The consumer confidence index was forecast at -7.9 points.

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The technical picture in the EURUSD pair has not changed significantly. Trading in the next few days will be conducted from the support range of 1.1115, where the bulls will try to build a new lower limit of the ascending channel. The main problem for buyers of risky assets will be the upper limit of the current side channel at 1.1180, a breakthrough of which will lead the trading tool to return to levels 1.1210 and 1.1240.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for April 29, 2019

EUR/USD is trading in an impulsive bearish manner. The price broke below 1.1200 with a daily close. Thie week, traders are anticipating two major events: a two-day policy meeting of the Federal Reserve and US nonfarm payrolls. That's why the pair is set to trade with higher volatility in the coming days.

Today the eurozone presented mixed economic reports. As a result, EUR is trading in the green for a while, though EUR's gains are likely to be short-lived. The eurozone's M3 Money Supply report was published with an increase to 4.5% from the previous value of 4.3% which was expected to decline to 4.2% and Private Loans decreased to 3.2% while experts projected a flat reading of 3.3%.

The eurozone is struggling with an economic slowdown which has been proved by economic data. So, WYE is expected to extend weakness if upcoming ECB events and reports do not meet expectations. This week the economic calendar contains a series of reports on the eurozone's economy which are unlikely to support EUR gains over USD.

On the USD side, on Friday the US reported much stronger than expected GDP expansion according to flash estimates. The US GDP surged 3.2% in Q1 2019, much better than the forecast for a flat print of 2.2%. So, USD is expected to hold the upper hand over EUR in the coming days. The Federal Reserve is to conclude its two day meeting on Wednesday amid expectations that interest rates will remain on hold. At its March meeting the Fed indicated that it would refrain from raising rates for the rest of the year citing a slower pace of economic growth. The meeting is holding after Friday's data proved that growth the US economy unexpectedly accelerated in the first quarter. However, the expansion was boosted by gains in trade and inventories which may unwind.

This week on Friday, nonfarm payrolls report for April tops the list of macroeconomic reports. Economists expect the US private sector to add 181k jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 3.8%. The US economy created 196k jobs in March, rebounding after just 33k jobs in the previous month. A new round of the China-U.S. trade talks is due get under way on Wednesday with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer travelling to Beijing. The next round of meetings is scheduled for the following week in Washington.

To sum it up, any positive reading of the US economic reports and events this week will encourage further USD gains over EUR. Alternatively, any worse result will weaken the US currency and lead to certain correction and indecision in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price gained bullish momentum recently after the impulsive break below 1.1200 which is expected to be retested with a pullback before the bearish pressure reinforces in the coming days with a target towards 1.1050 support area. As the price remains below 1.1300 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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GBP / USD: plan for the American session on April 29. Buyers failed to continue upward correction, but the chance for growth

To open long positions on GBP / USD you need:

Pound buyers could not build a new wave of growth in the first half of the day, but the probability of continuing upward correction remains quite high. The formation of a false breakdown at 1.2915, to which bears are now very close, will be a signal to open long positions based on a breakout and consolidation above resistance 1.2960, which will open a direct path to the highs of 1.2990 and 1.3017, where I recommend taking profits. Under the scenario of reducing the pound below the level of 1.2915, long positions can be returned to the rebound from the support of 1.2870.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

The bears did not wait for a false breakdown in the area of resistance 1.2960, to which I paid attention in my morning forecast. Now the main task is to consolidate below the range of 1.2915, which is the middle of the side channel, which will lead to the formation of pressure on GBP / USD and reduce the pair to the area of minimum 1.2874, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of growth above 1.2960, GBP / USD can be sold to rebound from a maximum of 1.2990.

More in the video forecast for April 29

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likely completion of a downward trend.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on April 29. Trade has moved to a narrow side channel

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The situation has not changed in comparison with the morning forecast. After an unsuccessful Friday attempt to continue strengthening the US dollar, amid a good report on US GDP, euro buyers returned to the level of 1.1144, and as long as trade is conducted above this range, demand will remain. The formation of a false breakdown in this range will be a signal to buy EUR / USD in order to break through and consolidate above the important resistance of 1.1177, which will open a direct path to a maximum of 1.1208 and 1.1237, where I recommend taking profits. When the decline scenario is below the level of 1.1144, long positions can be returned to the rebound from 1.1115.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

An unsuccessful attempt to consolidate at the level of 1.1177 will be a signal to open short positions in the euro with the aim of reducing and fixing at a minimum of 1.1144, a breakdown of which will lead EUR / USD to the support area 1.1115, where I recommend taking profits. With the growth of the euro above 1.1177 resistance, and this can happen only after weak data on income and expenditures of Americans, it is best to open short positions to rebound from a maximum of 1.1208.

More in the video forecast for April 29

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likely completion of a downward trend.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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BITCOIN Analysis for April 29, 2019

This past week, there was a sharp drop in bitcoin price below the $5,200 support. The BTC/USD pair even spiked below the $5,000 support level and formed a swing low above $4,900. Later, the price started a slow and steady recovery above the $5,000 and $5,050 resistance levels. The bulls even pushed the price above the $5,200 resistance.

It opened the doors for more gains above the $5,200 level and push higher towards $5,500 area in the coming days. It seems like the 50% Fib retracement level of the last slide from the $5,509 high to $4,905 low is acting as a hurdle. Besides, the trendline holding the price as support above $5,250 is expected to push the price higher towards $5,500 area.

On the other hand, if there is no upside pressure and if the price breaks below $5,200 with a daily close, BTC may decline below $5,150. An initial support is seen near the $5,100 level, below which the next stop could be $5,050. Looking at the chart, bitcoin price is clearly trading near a crucial juncture below $5,220 and $5,250. If the bulls gain control above $5,220 and $5,250, there could be a decent extension towards the $5,380 resistance level. Conversely, a continuous struggle to clear $5,250 is likely to start a fresh decrease towards the $5,100 or $5,050 level in the near term.

SUPPORT: 5,000, 5,200-50

RESISTANCE: 5,380, 5,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Yen recalls flash crash

A rich economic calendar across the States, the final round of US-Chinese trade negotiations, and concerns about a repetition of the January flash crash riveted investors 'attention on the Japanese yen. From the minimum in 2019 levels, the USD / JPY quotes soared almost 7% amid growing global risk appetite and falling Forex volatility to the very bottom since 2014. Nevertheless, the situation changed slightly in April: despite continuing growth in global stock indices, interest in the safe haven flared up with a new force.

The release of data on US GDP for the first quarter cooled the ardor of dollar fans. The US economy may have expanded by 3.2%, but this was due to an increase in inventories and net exports. These temporary factors may not be drivers of growth, but their brake in April-June. In contrast, inflation slowed down from 1.8% to 1.3%, which increased the risks of a reduction in the federal funds rate in 2019 from 40% to 66%. Investors have been drawing parallels from 1995-1998, when the Fed, despite the booming GDP and the historical highs of the S & P 500, lowered rates, nodding at sluggish inflation and international risks.

For the first time in many years, divergence in monetary policy can play on the side of "bears" and not "bulls" on USD / JPY. The last meeting of the Bank of Japan left many questions. Why does the regulator predict that consumer prices in 2022 will grow by 1.6%, but at the same time declares that the overnight rate will remain at the current level, at least until March 2020? Is he ready to tighten monetary policy earlier than inflation allows? It should be noted that the use of the yield curve targeting practice made it possible for BoJ to buy less assets than it is declared. It seems that the peak of the quantitative easing program was passed in 2017.

Dynamics of asset purchases by Bank of Japan in the framework of QE

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Despite the fact that Xi Jinping is ready to go along with Donald Trump and liberalize China's domestic market, ban illegal transfer of technology and limit non-market subsidies to state-owned enterprises, it's premature to talk about the end of trade wars. Washington is starting talks with Tokyo and Brussels, and Shinzo Abe's refusal to facilitate American farmers 'access to the agricultural market in the Land of the Rising Sun heightens the risks of new US import duties. This, in turn, stirs interest in safe-haven assets.

Along with the macroeconomic calendar and trade conflicts , investors should keep in mind long holidays in Japan. In January, the USD / JPY pair for a few minutes slipped by 4% in the witchcraft hour, and, fearing a repeat of the flash accident, speculators close their positions on the yen.

Technically, an internal bar appeared at the auction on April 26th. Breakthrough of its minimum near 111.4 will increase the risks of continuing the peak to the lower border of the upward trading channel. The Shark pattern can be activated, the target of which is 88.6% corresponds to 110. On the contrary, a breakthrough of the maximum of the inside bar near 112 will create prerequisites for the rally to continue to target by 161.8% according to the AB = CD model.

USD / JPY daily graph

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EUR / USD. April 29th Trading system "Regression Channels". Boring Correction Monday

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -38.4089

On Monday, April 29, the EUR / USD currency pair began to be adjusted, as evidenced by the purple bars of the Heiken Ashi indicator. In principle, we wrote last week that Friday and Monday may be corrective. And it therefore, turned out to be. Euro currency declined strongly against the US dollar last week. This week the main question is whether the pair will manage to keep the downward trend. We can find out the answer to this question for today or tomorrow, since the pair must work out a moving average. From which, it will either rebound or overcome. In the first case, the downward movement will most likely resume. Strong reports from America on changes in personal incomes and expenditures of the US population in March may support the American currency, but in general, these reports are not strong. No other macroeconomic publications are planned for today. In the case of overcoming the MA, the trend will change in the short term to an upward trend, but the bulls are still weak and do not have serious fundamental support. Both linear regression channels are directed downwards, which eloquently indicate the direction of the trend in the medium and long term. There is still no new information on the topic of trade war.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1169

R2 - 1.1230

R3 - 1,1292

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has begun to adjust. Thus, now it is still recommended to consider short positions with the target of 1.1108, but this will be after turning the Heiken Ashi indicator down.

Buy positions are recommended to open no earlier than fixing the pair above the moving average line with the first target of 1.1230. The fundamental factor does not give grounds to assume that MA will be overcome in the near future.

In addition to the technical picture, the fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel refers to the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel refers to the violet lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that refers to the colored bars in blue or purple.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 29, 2019

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3087. Last week, the pair rose from the level of 1.3087 to a top around 1.3201 but it rebounded to set around the spot of 1.3140. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3206 followed by 1.3268 , while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3087 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3087 and 1.3268; so we expect a range of 181 pips in coming days. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 1.3206, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.3268) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.3087 with the first target at 1.3206 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3268. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.3268 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3087, a further decline to 1.2976 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Oil shortage due to US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela

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According to Reuters, the tightening of US sanctions against the oil sector in Iran and Venezuela is one of the key factors holding back global oil supplies and increasing its value.

Recall that in November 2018, after leaving the international nuclear deal with Iran, Washington imposed restrictions affecting the oil industry of the Islamic Republic. Currently, the situation has been complicated by the sanctions imposed on the oil sector of Venezuela.

The White House administration has previously provided special exemptions for eight countries, allowing them to temporarily import Iranian oil. However, the exemption from sanctions will cease to act this week, namely May 2, 2019, analysts remind.

According to the American authorities, the global supply of black gold will remain at the same high level, despite the sanctions. The reason for this, experts believe the boom of shale oil production in the United States. However, only light oil grades are in excess, and the market is experiencing a shortage of medium and heavy grades that are banned and mined in Venezuela and Iran.

According to experts, not all customers are willing to buy heavy and medium oil at inflated prices. The current situation may lead to a serious imbalance in the global black gold market, experts predict. The current confrontation between buyers and sellers is partly due to the vagueness regarding the future supply of Iranian oil and the possible increase in sanctions.

"Fuel to the fire" adds uncertainty from the leadership of China, the largest consumer of oil in the world. It is not excluded that the Celestial Empire may neglect the lifting of the exemption from anti-Iran sanctions, and Washington will not impose restrictions on Chinese companies importing Iranian oil. Recall that these companies are key buyers of American oil and liquefied natural gas. In case of such scenario, the rise in prices for oil sellers will become difficult, experts are sure.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 29, 2019

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of weakness following a breakout of the lowest level of 0.6648. On the H1 chart. the level of 0.6648 coincides with 23.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in a downtrend. But, major resistance is seen at the level of 0.6690. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Therefore, strong resistance will be found at the level of 0.6690 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6575. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.6575, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level 0.6544.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 29, 2019

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.1192. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.1192 to the bottom around 1.1111. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1192 followed by 1.1216, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1111. According to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.1192 and 1.1111; for that we expect a range of 81 pips. If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1111, the market will decline further to 1.1069. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1069 with a view to test the second support. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.1192 (major resistance), then this scenario may become invalidated.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for April 29. Speech by Mark Carney can give a boost to the market

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Wave counting analysis:

On April 26, the GBP / USD pair gained about 15 basic points, which is too little to clarify the current wave pattern. The pair left the tapering triangle, indicating the intention to continue falling. It should be noted that wave counting is not completely unambiguous. Wave 3 can take a very long look, but much will depend on the news background, which should continue to be monitored, even though there is almost now news regarding Brexit. However, for the pound sterling, this topic is still the main one until the whole procedure reaches its logical conclusion. Today will be the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney. The Chairman of the Central Bank can speak on the topics of monetary policy and Brexit, which can cause a market reaction.

Purchase goals:

1.3118 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.3168 - 50.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2839 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.2693 - 161.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still involves building a downward trend, especially after breaking through the bottom line of the triangle. Now, I recommend selling a pair with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.2839 and 1.2693, which corresponds to 127.2% and 161.8% in Fibonacci.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 29, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 1.0123 and 1.0177. Currently, the price is in an upward channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that the pair is still in a bullish trend. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.0177. Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.0177. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 1.0177. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the level of 1.0177 with the first target at the level of 1.0265. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 1.0265, we should see the pair climbing towards the point of 1.0314. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.0123.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for April 29. There is no reason for strong growth of the euro

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Wave counting analysis:

On Friday, April 26, bidding ended for the pair EUR / USD by 12 bp increase. Such a small increase in the euro currency does not in any way affect the current wave counting. Thus, I still assume the construction of a downward wave 3 with targets located near the levels of 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci. At the current time, wave 3 is less than wave 1, which suggests that it will continue to be built. The news background for the tool is still neutral. Reports published from time to time do not always cause a market reaction. Last week there were very few of them, which did not prevent the euro currency from losing 1.5 cents.

Sales targets:

1.1097 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1045 - 200.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1324 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build a downward trend plot against the background of the reluctance of markets to buy euro currency. The current wave counting assumes the resumption of the pair reduction with the closest targets 1.1097 and 1.1045, which equates to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci. Upon completion of the rollback to the top, I recommend selling a pair with these goals.

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Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (April 29)

By the end of the last trading week the euro / dollar currency pair showed a high volatility of 61 points, resulting in a corrective move on the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the rapid decline, which lasted already throughout the week, reached the mark of 1.1112, where a periodic pivot was found and the long-awaited correction was born. The news and news background had statistics about the US GDP for the first quarter, where they waited for a decline from 2.2% to 2.0%, but as a result, get accelerated to 3.2%. The news is certainly positive for the US currency, but, as we see from the result, the dollar was losing its position. The question is why. Probably, there are two factors, the first is a strong overheating of short positions, caused by such a rapid and steady decline, where the technical correction resulted. The second factor is the upcoming two-day Fed meeting, where they can again catch up on the negative.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we do not have solid statistics, the only thing present, is the speech of the Bank of England CEO Mark Carney. However, there is an indirect factor for the euro. But if there are no sharp statements, then we will see nothing.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote is still in the correction phase, but already quite close to the important mirror level of 1.1180. Probably assume that at current values, the upper limit will be just this level 1.1180. In the case of fixation higher than 1.1180, we can assume further correction formation towards 1.1230. Otherwise, a temporary flat of 1.1120 / 1.1180 is possible.

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

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- Consider buying positions in case of a clear price fixing higher than 1.1180.

- Positions for sale are considered in case of a clear price fixing lower than 1.1110.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short term there is a downward interest against the background of a temporary stop. Intraday perspective is in the ascending phase against the background of the correction. The medium-term perspective maintains a downward interest on the general background of the market.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(April 29 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 22 points. If the quotation finds resistance around the level of 1.1180, the volatility will remain within the average daily indicator.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1180; 1,1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Weekly review from April 29 to May 4, 2019 for the GBP / USD pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

In the coming weeks, the price will move up with the first goal of 1.2985 - a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- monthly schedule - down.

Conclusion of the complex analysis - upward movement.

The overall result of the calculation of the candle of the GBP / USD currency pair on a weekly schedule: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candle (Monday - up) and the presence of the second upper shadow (Friday - down).

In the coming weeks, the price will move up with the first goal of 1.2985 - a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dashed line).

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EURUSD: Despite the growth of the US economy, there are still problems with consumer and business spending

On Friday, the US dollar made another attempt to grow after the release of the report, which indicated that the US economy in the first quarter of 2019 grew at a high rate due to an increase in exports and investment in inventories. This allowed to resolve the problem associated with the slowdown in demand from consumers and companies.

However, the bears did not manage to stay at the new minimums, which led to a quick profit taking and a small upward correction of the euro by the end of the North American session.

According to the data of the US Department of Commerce and the first preliminary estimate, the US GDP in the 1st quarter of the current year grew immediately by 3.2% per annum, while economists had expected growth of only 2.5%, after 2.2% in the 4th quarter of year 2018.

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As noted above, the main contribution was made due to large export growth, while imports gradually declined. Also, the growth of public spending and private investment added a few tenths to GDP. The main problem is a slower growth in consumer spending, as well as business, where a slowdown was noted in the first quarter. Thus, consumer spending in the 1st quarter increased by only 1.2% after rising 2.5% in the 4th quarter of 2018. The reduction in the main item of expenditure has affected large purchases and durable goods.

Also on Friday, it became known that consumers' assessment of the prospects for the American economy in April of this year has somewhat deteriorated. According to the University of Michigan, the final consumer sentiment index in April 2019 was 97.2 points, down from the March value of 98.4 points. The university noted that the average value of the index over the past 28 months is 97.2 points.

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After the published data, a presentation was made by Economic Advisor to the USS President Larry Kudlow, who said that strong GDP data was provided by the current policy of Donald Trump, which in the future will further contribute to economic recovery.

Kudlow also drew attention to the slowdown in inflation, noting that its low level may show a decrease in the Fed's rates in the coming months. With regard to trade negotiations between the US and China, the presidential adviser remains cautiously optimistic.

The technical picture in the EURUSD pair has not changed significantly. Trading in the next few days will be conducted from the support range of 1.1115, where the bulls will try to build a new lower limit of the ascending channel. The main problem for buyers of risky assets will be the upper limit of the current side channel at 1.1180, a breakthrough of which will lead the trading tool to return to levels 1.1210 and 1.1240.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for April 29

Forecast for April 29:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1200, 1.1175, 1.1153, 1.1113, 1.1100, 1.1069 and 1.1043. Here, we are following the local downward structure of April 22. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.1113 - 1.1100. In this case, the goal is 1.1069, after reaching this level, we expect a consolidation. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1043. Near which, we expect a consolidation, as well as a departure to the correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range 1.1153 - 1.1175. Breaking the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1200. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the local structure of April 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1153 Take profit: 1.1173

Buy 1.1175 Take profit: 1.1200

Sell: 1.1100 Take profit: 1.1070

Sell: 1.1067 Take profit: 1.1044

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2966, 1.2940, 1.2924, 1.2891, 1.2870, 1.2831 and 1.2805. Here, we are following the local downward structure of April 23 and at the moment, the price is in deep correction. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2891 - 1.2870. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.2831. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2805, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2940 - 1.2966, up to the level 1.2966. We expect registration of the expressed initial conditions for the upward cycle. Its breakdown will lead to the development of an upward trend on the H1 scale. In this case, the first potential target is 1.3018.

The main trend is the local downward structure of April 23, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2940 Take profit: 1.2965

Buy: 1.2968 Take profit: 1.3016

Sell: 1.2890 Take profit: 1.2871

Sell: 1.2869 Take profit: 1.2831

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0286, 1.0257, 1.0225, 1.0193, 1.0176 and 1.0146. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure from April 12. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.0225. In this case, the goal is 1.0257, wherein consolidation is near this level, and hence, the probability of a turn to the bottom is high. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.0286. After reaching which, we expect to go into a correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.0193 - 1.0176. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.0146. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending cycle of April 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 1.0225 Take profit: 1.0255

Buy : 1.0258 Take profit: 1.0286

Sell: 1.0193 Take profit: 1.0176

Sell: 1.0174 Take profit: 1.0146

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 112.14, 111.89, 111.74, 111.44, 111.30, 110.97 and 110.57. Here, the price forms a pronounced potential for the downward movement of April 24. The development of the downward structure is expected after the price passes the noise range of 111.44 - 111.30. In this case, the target is 110.97, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the downward cycle, we consider the level of 110.57, near which, we expect a consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 111.74 - 111.89. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 112.14. This level is a key support for the downward structure of April 24.

The main trend: the formation of the downward structure of April 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.74 Take profit: 111.88

Buy: 111.90 Take profit: 112.14

Sell: 111.30 Take profit: 111.00

Sell: 110.95 Take profit: 110.58

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3585, 1.3558, 1.3516, 1.3496, 1.3469, 1.3442, 1.3407 and 1.3370. Here, we continue to follow the development of the upward cycle of April 17. At the moment, the price is in the correction. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the passage by the price of the noise range 1.3496 - 1.3516. In this case, the goal is 1.3558. We consider the level of 1.3585 to be a potential value for the top. Upon reaching this level, we expect a consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.3469 - 1.3442. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3407. This level is a key support for the top, and the breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the target is 1.3370.

The main trend is the ascending structure of April 17, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3516 Take profit: 1.3555

Buy : 1.3558 Take profit: 1.3585

Sell: 1.3440 Take profit: 1.3410

Sell: 1.3405 Take profit: 1.3370

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7137, 0.7116, 0.7088, 0.7064, 0.7040, 0.7024, 0.7003 and 0.6986. Here, we are following the formation of the upward potential of April 25. The development of this structure is expected after the breakdown of 0.7064. In this case, the goal is 0.7088, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.7088 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.7116. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7137. After reaching which, we expect a consolidation, as well as a rollback to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7040 - 0.7024. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.7003. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its price will lead to the subsequent development of the downward cycle of April 17.

The main trend is the downward cycle of April 17, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7064 Take profit: 0.7086

Buy: 0.7090 Take profit: 0.7116

Sell : 0.7040 Take profit : 0.7025

Sell: 0.7022 Take profit: 0.7005

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 125.25, 125.02, 124.71, 124.34, 124.05, 123.82 and 123.30. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of April 17. At the moment, the price is in the correction. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 124.34. In this case, the first goal is 124.05. Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 124.05 - 123.82. The breakdown of the latter value will allow to expect movement towards a potential target - 123.30. From this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The level of 125.02 is a key support for the development of a downward trend. Its price passage will lead to the formation of pronounced initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the potential target is 125.25, wherein consolidation is near this level.

The main trend is the downward structure of April 17, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 124.74 Take profit: 125.02

Buy: 125.03 Take profit: 125.25

Sell: 124.34 Take profit: 124.05

Sell: 124.05 Take profit: 123.84

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 145.07, 144.87, 144.53, 144.08, 143.80, 143.49, 143.11 and 142.89. Here, the price is in deep correction from the downward structure on April 23. The registration of the expressed initial conditions for the top is expected to level 145.07. Continuation to the bottom is possible after breakdown 144.08. Here, the first target is 143.80. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range 143.80 - 143.49. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 143.11. We consider the level of 142.89 to be a potential value for the bottom, after reaching which, we expect a consolidation in the range of 142.89 - 143.11, as well as a rollback to the top.

The main trend is the local structure of April 23, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 144.55 Take profit: 144.85

Sell: 144.80 Take profit: 143.88

Sell: 143.80 Take profit: 143.50

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Weekly review from April 29 to May 4, 2019 for the EUR / USD pair

This week, the price will move up with the first goal of 1.1189 - a rolling level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- monthly schedule - down.

Conclusion of the complex analysis - upward movement.

The total result of the calculation of the EUR / USD currency pair candle on a weekly schedule:

When moving up, the first target 1.1189 is a recoil level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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EURUSD and GBPUSD: a week of increased volatility

US GDP growth in Q1 2019 turned out to be noticeably higher than forecast and was previously 3.2% on an annual basis, but its structure turned out to be atypical for the United States and points to a number of quite significant changes. In particular, 1% growth was due to the dynamics of net exports, which against the background of a rather weak growth of the global economy indicates the result of the protectionist pressure of the US administration. At the same time, domestic demand growth was only 1.5%, which is less than 2% a quarter earlier. Weak retail sales and inflation dynamics indicate that consumer demand is slowing down.

Data on wages and PMI indicate that the slowdown should be developed in the 2nd quarter. The base personal consumption expenditure index of PCE was only 1.3% y / y, while it was expected to be 1.6%, weak inflation increases the likelihood of the Fed reevaluating its plans not in the direction of growth rates, but rather in the direction of reducing them.

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The coming week is rich in events, among which are the Fed meeting on Wednesday and the publication of the employment report on Friday. The Fed meeting will be passing, there will be no updated macroeconomic forecasts, and the rate will remain at the current level. The markets also do not expect changes from the accompanying statement after a strong GDP report. At the same time, lowering inflation expectations may be the main topic of Powell's press conference, as it increases the likelihood of a rate cut. If Powell maintains equanimity, then the dollar will react to the outcome of the meeting with a neutral or a slight increase. Possible rate of reduction.

As for Nonfarm Payrolls, the last two reports, especially the February ones, were worse than forecasts. The ISM report on the service sector will be released after the employment report, but Markit has already contributed his share of the negative, reporting a slowdown in the creation of new jobs, so the likelihood of weak data has slightly increased. The dollar will go down if the fear is confirmed, as the second disastrous report on labor will indicate a reversal of the trend and the approach of the recession for a short time.

EURUSD

The euro looks neutral on monday; an increase in volatility may trigger a report on economic activity for April in the European Commission version, if it differs in terms of conclusions from the previously published PMI results.

The recovery potential of EURUSD is limited by the level of 1.1183, a decline to 1.1135 / 42 is a bit more likely.

GBPUSD

The CBI report on changes in the volume of industrial orders in April indicates a trend towards a slowdown in the UK economy. The overall optimism of the business prospects assessment noticeably fell, and at the fastest pace in the entire history of observations, stocks of raw materials (+ 39%), work in progress (+ 21%) and finished products (+ 25%) grew, indicating progressive marketing problems. The growth of wages and domestic prices looks positive, which allows to maintain some optimism, but on the whole, a reversal towards a slowdown has already taken place.

The Bank of England has no reason to consider options for raising rates in the foreseeable future, despite the good state of the labor market. The Brexit deadline has been extended until October 31, but there is growing political uncertainty within the country, which may lead to a new government crisis and early elections, in which the Laborists, led by James Corwin, a consistent opponent of May, have every chance of winning.

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Business investments are extremely weak, and there is no hope of a change in the trend. The forecast for the pound remains negative. On Monday, GBPUSD will spend the day in the range with a downward trend, possible growth is limited by resistance 1.2961 or, less likely, 1.2991, more likely to decline to the support of 1.2864 formed last week.

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Bitcoin A breakthrough of 5 500 and a new wave of growth is expected.

After the recent sharp decline in the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the region of 5 000 and also a rapid return, the trade has been established within the usual range, which maintains its upward potential. Let me remind you that the sharp fall in Bitcoin was directly related to the claim of the Prosecutor General of the State of New York against the company iFinex, which belongs to the Bitfinex exchange and the company Tether.

Bitcoin Buy Signal (BTC):

While trading is above the range of 5 370, buyers will remain optimistic and try to gain a foothold above the resistance of 5 500, which will lead to another upward wave with an update of the maximum of 5 660, where I recommend taking profits. With a decrease in Bitcoin, you can take a closer look at the purchases from the support of 5 360 and 200.

Bitcoin Sales Signal (BTC):

The next unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 5 500 will be a signal to sell, however, the main goal of the sellers will be to return to support 5 360, which can push the cryptocurrency to the area of minimum 5 200 and 5 050, where I recommend to fix profits.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 29. The bulls need to protect the level of 1.2915

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Buyers returned to the resistance level of 1.2915, and their main task for the first half of the day will be to keep this range. The formation of a false breakdown there will be a new signal for opening long positions based on a breakthrough and consolidation above a resistance of 1.2960, which will open a direct path to the highs of 1.2990 and 1.3017, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound declines below the level of 1.2915, long positions can be returned to rebound from the support of 1.2870.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The bears will expect an unsuccessful consolidation in the morning, above the resistance of 1.2960, which will lead to the formation of a small wave of pressure on the pound and an attempt to consolidate below the range of 1.2915, which is the middle of the side channel. In case of growth above 1.2960, GBP/USD can be sold to rebound from a high of 1.2990. The main purpose of the bears today will be to return to the lower boundary of the side channel of 1.2870.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likely completion of a downward trend.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound declines, support may be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2910.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 29. Upward correction on the euro may continue, but subject to a breakthrough

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

After an unsuccessful attempt on Friday to continue strengthening the US dollar, amid a good report on US GDP, euro buyers returned to the level of 1.1144, and as long as trade is conducted above this range, demand will remain. Forming a false breakdown in this range in the first half of the day will be a signal to buy EUR/USD with the aim of breaking through and consolidating above the important resistance of 1.1177, which will open a direct path to a high of 1.1208 and 1.1237, where I recommend taking profits. When the decline scenario is below the level of 1.1144, long positions can be returned to rebound from 1.1115.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

An unsuccessful attempt to consolidate at the level of 1.1177 will be a signal to open short positions in the euro with the aim of declining and consolidating at a low of 1.1144, a breakdown of which will lead EUR/USD to the support area of 1.1115, where I recommend taking profits. With the growth of the euro above the resistance of 1.1177 in the first half of the day, and this can happen only after the release of a good report on consumer confidence in the eurozone, it is best to open short positions to rebound from a high of 1.1208.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likely completion of a downward trend.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is low, which does not provide signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placing trade orders (April 29)

By the end of the last trading week, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a low volatility of 67 points, but even with such a low amplitude, the direction of the quote was built in a correction. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quotation has found a foothold in the face of the periodic level 1.2865, from which came the origin of the corrective move went towards the previously predicted values of 1.2935-1.2960.

The information and news background had statistics about the US GDP for the 1st quarter, where they expected a decline from 2.2% to 2.0%, but as a result, it gets accelerated right up to 3.2%. Returning to the information background, we have another drilling on Brexit, where a survey took place last weekend, which showed that Scottish residents are ready for a new referendum on independence, if the United Kingdom does complete the Brexit according to a tough scenario. As we can see, the outgoing news flow in general had to respond positively to the American currency, but no, the dollar was falling, and the reason probably lies in the general overheating, and the so-called technical correction came.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we only have a speech by the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the correction is in the construction phase and the quotation has already reached the first control point of 1.2935. It is likely to assume that the correction will continue in the market, where the quotation is within 1.2955-1.2965. It may feel resistance, restoring downward interest.

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Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is an upward interest against the background of the correction in the short and intraday perspective. Meanwhile, the medium-term perspective maintains a downward interest on the general background of the market.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(April 29 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 32 points. Volatility can increase in case of any harsh rhetoric on the part of the head of the Bank of England.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3000 **; 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.2920 * 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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GBP / USD. April 29th Trading system "Regression Channels". Will it still be the second referendum?

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: 7.6983

The weakest upward correction continues on the GBP / USD pair. The UK continues to fever. It was only recently reported that in the case of "tough" Brexit, Scotland will try to leave the UK. Now it became known that almost 100 members of the Labor Party of Great Britain intend to initiate a second referendum so that the citizens themselves determine which exit option from the EU (and whether Brexit is needed at all) suits them. In principle, such a scenario can be a way out of the current situation, when the Parliament, Theresa May and the European Union cannot reach a general agreement. However, the problem lies in the fact that the results of the repeated referendum may be unexpected. For example, a majority will vote to opt out of Brexit. Then it turns out that all the events of the last three years, Great British monetary losses, and the mass resignations in parliament will not make any sense. Moreover, Brexit is the brainchild of Theresa May, and she will resist to the last, just not to cancel it and bring it to the end. For sterling, this only means new potential problems. This process is unlikely to go smoothly, quietly and calmly. But the final failure of Brexit may, on the contrary, support the pound. However, all this is only at the stage of talking. The downward trend in pound sterling continues.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,2878

S2 - 1,2817

S3 - 1.2756

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2939

R2 - 1.3000

R3 - 1.3062

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD continues to be adjusted. Thus, after the completion of the correction, it is recommended to trade for a fall with targets 1.2878 and 1.2817, since the downtrend persists.

Longs are recommended to be considered after fixing the pair above the moving average line with targets at 1.3000 and 1.3062. The pair can execute this option, but the pound still has no fundamental support, which means that the pair will not go far upwards.

In addition to the technical picture, the fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel refers to the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel refers to the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI refers to the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken indicator is an indicator that refers to the colored bars in blue or purple.

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Burning forecast 04.29.2019 EURUSD

The EURUSD rate is in a downtrend course - cancelling the signal - growth is above 1.1220

The new week is filled with important data for the US - the Fed's decision on rates on Wednesday and employment reports on Friday. We expect a strong movement.

We keep selling from 1.1220

Selling from 1.1180 is possible.

Alternative: in a complete reversal, buy from 1.1265

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on April 29, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, technical analysis gives a continuation of the upward movement. The first upper target of 1.2988 is the pullback level of 24.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Monday, technical analysis gives a continuation of the upward movement. The first upper target of 1.2988 is the pullback level of 24.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on April 29, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the downward movement will continue, but only after the price tests the resistance line 1.1175 (blue bold line) once again. The first lower target 1.1098 is the target level of 161.8% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the downward movement will continue, but only after the price tests the resistance line 1.1175 (blue bold line) once again. The first lower target 1.1098 is the target level of 161.8% (yellow dotted line).

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We expect a local weakening of the dollar (selling the USDCAD pair and buying the AUDUSD pair)

The markets' attention in the new week will focus on the outcome of the Fed's meeting on monetary policy. Investors will be interested in the regulator's view on the state of the US economy, as well as the prospects for a possible reduction in interest rates.

Earlier, the opinion was that the Fed would have to lower interest rates this year, on the one hand, under pressure from conflicting economic data, and on the other, under pressure from D. Trump, who wants the bank to start the process of lowering interest rates to simulate, as he believes, economic growth in the country. But in fact, the US president needs to create the conditions for the continued unrestrained growth of the local stock market, the upward dynamics of which coincide with its rating. Therefore, investors are still highly likely to allow the return of the "dovish" policy of the Federal Reserve, which is the main reason for the rise in US stock indices.

An additional positive factor is the preservation of positive expectations from the outcome of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. The next round begins this week. It is likely that the market will traditionally respond positively to this very fact, and not on the result, which is not clear.

Assessing the overall market picture and investor sentiment, we note that, in general, positive expectations remain, which, in our opinion, can support the demand for risky assets and contribute to the local weakening of the US dollar in the forex market. But again, this dynamics will probably remain local, since we regard the existing positive in the markets as cautious. It can be deflated at any time, and then the decline in the dollar exchange rate may again change to its growth.

In general, we still believe that the uncertainty factor will dominate in the markets, which will have an overwhelming effect on investors' desire to be active. It is likely that the local growth of stock indices in the United States will continue to correlate with the fall in market volumes. Volatility in the foreign exchange markets will also remain extremely low.

Forecast of the day:

The AUDUSD pair is actively recovering in the wake of new reports on the resumption of trade talks between the United States and China. If the pair rises above the level of 0.7060, it will continue its growth to 0.7125

The USDCAD pair is trading below 1.3455. If oil prices stop its decline, and the general weakening of the dollar continues, we should expect the pair to decline to 1.3350, but for this it needs to consolidate below 1.3455.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 29.04.2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has bounced finally from the level of 1.2866 and is currently moving towards the level of 1.2938, which is a part of the supply zone located between the levels of 1.2938 - 1.2960. Any breakout through this zone would extend the rally towards the level of 1.2977, 1.2996 or 1.3012. The positive momentum and a bounce from the extremely oversold market conditions are so far helping the bulls.

Weekly Pivots:

WR3 - 1.3137

WR2 - 1.3074

WR1 - 1.2986

Weekly Pivot: 1.2980

WS1 - 1.2827

WS2 - 1.2766

WS3 - 1.2683

Trading recommendations:

The zone between 1.2938 - 2.2960 is the key technical resistance zone for the pice, so it is a good level to open the sell orders. If, however, the resistance is violated, then the corrective pull-back will extend higher and the sell orders should be closed and short-term buy orders should be open with a target at the level of 1.2977, 1.2996 or 1.3012. The larger timeframe outlook is now neutral.

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Control zones USDCAD 04/29/19

The current priority is to decrease, since the pair is trading below the WCZ 1/4 1.3470-1.3465. The first target of the corrective downward movement will be the WCZ 1/2 1.3418-1.3407. Reaching this zone will make it possible for you to partially close a short position and consider purchasing when forming the "false breakdown" pattern. Since growth is still a priority, working to buy from a level of 1.3418 is the main plan for today.

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It is better to not make any trading decisions at current levels, since a local accumulation zone is being formed and the price can go in an extreme range from the last three days.

To break the upward momentum, it will be necessary to close today's US session below 1.3407. This will cancel the option to buy the instrument and force you to look for entry points into a short position tomorrow. The probability of implementing this model is at 30%, so it should be considered as an auxiliary.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 29.04.2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the level of 1.1118 after a second low was made at the level of 1.1112. There is a Pin Bar candlestick formation formed at those level as well, so the move up might have some momentum behind it. Nevertheless, so far the bounce is shallow and the market is just trying to test the technical resistance at the level of 1.1176. The RSI indicator is still below its fifty levels, but the oversold market conditions are somehow helping the bulls to at least pause the down-trend and made a local pull-back.

Weekly Pivots:

WR3 - 1.1369

WR2 - 1.1315

WR1 - 1.1220

Weekly Pivot: 1.1165

WS1 - 1.1067

WS2 - 1.1006

WS3 - 1.0913

Trading recommendations:

The level of 1.1176 is the key technical resistance for the pice, so it is a good level to open the sell orders. If, however, the resistance is violated, then the corrective pull-back will extend higher and the sell orders should be closed and short-term buy orders should be open with a target at the level of 1.1210.

analytics5cc6965a99a8d.jpg

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Technical analysis of Ethereum for 29.04.2019:

Crypto Industry News:

A bill that would completely ban cryptocurrencies, reportedly circulating to various departments of the Indian government, media reports say. An official familiar with this issue reportedly told the financial newspaper that the government has begun interministerial consultations on the draft law "Prohibition of cryptocurrencies and regulation of official digital currency bills 2019".

A Committee consisting of the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT), the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) and the Education and Investment Fund (IEPFA), among others, reportedly supported the idea of a total ban on "selling" , purchase and issue of all types of cryptocurrencies. "

The Committee is also considering the possibility of prohibiting digital currencies under the Money Laundering Prevention Act (PMLA), as they could allegedly be used to launder money. The Ministry of Corporate Affairs reportedly claimed that cryptocurrencies are used in fraudulent programs to "deceive gullible investors".

The information made available by the Economics Times contradicts reports from December that another government committee suggested that cryptocurrencies should be legalized in the country, and stressed that there is a broad consensus that the cryptocurrency cannot be rejected as completely illegal.

In February, the Supreme Court of India granted the Indian authorities four weeks to develop a policy for regulating cryptocurrencies before the Tribunal stops accepting cryptography-related issues, including those that demand the revocation of a cryptographic circular issued by the Indian Reserve Bank.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD market has bounced from the level of 148.00 and now is consolidating around 50% of the Fibonacci retracement at the level of 162.69. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 61% Fibonacci which is 166.17 and this is where the corrective cycle in wave (1)/(a) might terminate. There is still a chance for the current corrective cycle in a wave 2 of a higher degree to evolve into the more complex and time-consuming cycle, so please bear this in mind.

Weekly Pivots:

WR3 - 204.74

WR2 - 190.50

WR1 - 176.25

Weekly Pivot: 160.51

WS1 - 146.54

WS2 - 132.16

WS3 - 116.96

Trading recommendations:

The 50% Fibonacci retracement is a good level to open the sell order. The room for manipulation or averaging is up to the level of 61%, but above this level, the bearish setup is invalidated. The longer-term outlook remains bullish, but the corrective cycle is now getting quite extended in time and price.

analytics5cc6959f07d37.jpg

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for April 29, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair rallied through 1.1175 levels on Friday, inviting traders to open short positions discussed earlier. Still probability remains for yet another push towards 1.1190, which is the upper boundary of resistance zone as well backside of the trend line and fibonacci 0.382 resistance of the entire drop between 1.1324 and 1.1111 levels respectively. In either case, a safe strategy could be to remain short and sell further on rallies through the above defined levels. The minimum downside target remains at 1.1020 levels as presented on the above chart. Resistance remains strong around 1.1324 levels and bulls would require to break above that to confirm that a meaningful bottom is in place for now. According to wave counts and fibonacci extensions, further downside remains a high probability going forward.

Trading plan:

Short from 1.1175 with risk at 1.1324, target 1.1020. Also add short positions around 1.1190 levels.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Bitcoin for 29.04.2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Illegal mining of cryptocurrencies - or else crypto jacking - against consumers has essentially disappeared, declares MalwareBytes, a cybersecurity company, in a report they have issued.

According to the report, after the closure of the CoinHive mining browser service in early March - when the team claimed that the project has become economically reliable - crypto jacking against consumers has significantly decreased. At the same time, the number of such attacks on companies has increased since the last quarter.

In addition, MalwareBytes also notes that Bitcoin holders who use Electrum wallets on their Macs have lost more than $ 2.3 million in stolen crypto assets by the Trojan version of the portfolio in the first quarter of this year.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the level of $5,047 to the level of $5,510 where the old technical resistance level is. The pair is still trading below the orange trendline, but the bounce was impressive and fast, so the bulls might still be thinking about a test of the recent high at $5,666. From the Elliott Wave point of view, the recent drop was a wave (a) of the corrective cycle and now the market is unfolding wave (b), so there is still wave (c) missing anyway.

Weekly Pivots:

WR3 - $6,630

WR2 - $5,993

WR1 - $5,751

Weekly Pivot: $5,379

WS1 - $5,117

WS2 - $4,744

WS3 - $4,481

Trading recommendations:

The level of the recent high at $5,666 is a good level to enter a short term sell position with a target at the level of $5,500 or even below ( it all depends on the form of the corrective cycle in wave (c)). The longer-term outlook is still bullish, but currently, the market entered a corrective cycle.

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Control zones GBPUSD 04/29/19

Work on the pair is still going in the direction of weakening the British pound, however, the demand received at the end of last week may lead to the formation of a deep correction or a reversal of the bearish momentum. The main plan is to find favorable prices for selling. The first resistance is the WCZ 1/4 1.2970-1.2961. Stopping growth in this area will provide an opportunity to entry into sales.

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While the pair is trading below the level of 1.2970, there is no need to consider the formation of complex correctional models, since the emergence of proposals will be a natural development of the downward movement.

In order to break the bearish impulse, today's trading above the level of 1.2970 is required. This will make it possible for you to consider purchases tomorrow. The growth target will be the WCZ 1/2 1.3057-1.3076, where you will need to lock in purchases that are open on Friday or at prices higher than the current ones. Frequent purchases from last week should be transferred to breakeven in case of continued growth.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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