EUR / USD Technical Analysis Recommendations on February 12

EUR / USD pair

The economic calendar is relatively calm today. Only in the late afternoon, important events are expected including the publication of data on the number of open vacancies on the US labor market at 15.00 London time and Fed speech at 17.45 London time.

6XH7XyPkR1RigawNnXZPvWjFSUCnHp0NUMmfh2Wz

Bears continue to advance. Yesterday, they didn't just test the nearest benchmark at 1.1290, but also confidently closed the previous day below the level. The attention and interests of players for a fall are directed now to the accumulation of support levels in the area of 1.1229 - 1.1186, which is the target for the breakdown of the day cloud + monthly Senkou Span A + monthly Fib Kijun. A Breakdown of this zone will allow to finally exit the correction zone and restore the downward trend at the most senior time intervals. In the case of a retest, the day cloud is still the closest resistance at 1.1357-92.

-pCBt2vq4QgvPSF82NhNv5yUYaMT9s3XC8FfTfDS

The advantage of the bears in the younger halves has shaken. A slight upward correction allowed the majority of technical indicators on H1 to be adjusted in favor of bulls. However, you need to consider that the key levels remain on the side of the bears. In the case of the completion of the upward correction and the resumption of reduction, the support and benchmark levels for today are S1 (1.1251), S2 (1.1227), S3 (1.1188). The less significant first victory of the players to rise can now be considered as a breakdown and consolidation above the central Pivot-level of the day at 1.1290. After that, the bulls will have new perspectives, the weekly long-term trend of 1.1348 will become the most significant guideline.

ooPnfZF6jgmsPunz2jiT9tGCaQpJ1NxcqTv5sTih

At the moment, conditions are emerging for the occurrence of discrepancies but there is no new divergence.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average ( 120)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Banks revise their bearish dollar forecasts

analytics5c62ce675f7b7.jpg

If at the beginning of the year, BNP Paribas analysts adhered to the "bearish" views on the dollar and predicted its weakening, now they believe that in the first half of the year, greenbacks could increase by 5%.

"Despite the change in the Fed's rate, the dollar is not depreciating, and the main reason for this lies in the fact that easing the position of the regulator is only the first swallow. Other central banks will probably soon begin to issue pigeon comments as well," representatives of the bank said.

Goldman Sachs specialists also revised their bearish dollar outlook. According to them, it will come true only if the slowdown in US GDP growth forces the Fed to pause in the process of raising interest rates, while there will be strong economic growth outside the United States.

"The US economic indicators, when compared with those in other countries, including the latest labor market data, indicate that the US economy will continue to outpace competitors in terms of growth in the coming months," said Goldman Sachs experts.

"The main problem of bears in the dollar is that the currencies they like are in a chronic deficit. The decline in the yield of European bonds, weak economic growth in the eurozone, the political uncertainty around Brexit are the reasons why you can not like the euro as well as the dollar," said currency strategists at Societe Generale.

"The slowdown of the global economy is likely to continue, and this will be a negative signal for risky assets and a positive one for the dollar. The latter also remains not only an asset with a low-risk level but also one of the high-yielding currencies in the G10 group. Therefore, in the current conditions, greenback looks more attractive than its competitors," they believe in HSBC.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: plan for the American session on February 12. Pound buyers are not enough to break a downtrend

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Pound buyers failed to cope with the resistance of 1.2884, to which I paid attention in my morning review and on which the further upward correction in the pair fully depends. The support of 1.2833 showed itself perfectly. At the moment, only a breakdown with consolidation above the resistance of 1.2884 will open up the prospect of further GBP / USD recovery with a test of highs around 1.2932 and 1.2992, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decline and breakdown of support at 1.2833, it is best to return to long positions to rebound from the lows of 1.2782 and 1.2728.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Speech by the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney could put pressure on the pound. The bears have already worked out the morning sell signal in the resistance area of 1.2884, and the repeated support test of 1.2833 will lead to a new, larger sale of the pound to the lows of 1.2782 and 1.2728, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a pair rising above the resistance of 1.2884 in the second half of the day, it is best to open short positions to rebound from a high of 1.2932.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted below the 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates the formation of a downward trend.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is very low, but a breakthrough of the upper border around 1.2885 will lead to a larger increase in the pound.

uybS_TE95L6wFeG4nIt7TXjbrHlJgoP_YBRGQqCN

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar will definitely remain the favorite currency of the market this week

analytics5c62b6ba6f448.jpg

Dollars are growing! In this case, we are talking primarily about the American and Australian, the first confidently updated the two-month maximum, and the second quickly compensates for the recent losses. The impetus for growth was expectations of progress in trade negotiations between the US and China and a preliminary deal that would avoid the closure of the US government.

US lawmakers have signed an agreement on financing border security, which may prevent another partial closure of the government, this news will fuel growth. In addition, the markets are optimistic about the course of trade negotiations. At the same time, the dollar remains the favorite currency of the market, regardless of whether growing concerns about the global economy or the risks associated with the trade conflict between China and the United States, as well as the closure of the government. The growth of the dollar is also caused by growing caution regarding the prospects of its main competitors, in particular, the euro and the British pound. Weak data from Europe reduced market interest in the single European currency. The euro is trading near a three-month low. Sterling generally remained stable, but its future does not look bright. Until March 29 - the dates of how Britain leaves the European Union - there are only a few weeks left, and investors are increasingly concerned that the Brexit transaction will not take place.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brent will build a wall

Improving global risk appetite allowed Brent and WTI bulls to resume the offensive. Donald Trump was able to reach an agreement with Congress on the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico and although the total amount of $ 1.38 billion over 55 miles turned out to be less than requested, the fact that it would be possible to avoid a second shutdown of the US government had a positive effect on the US stock market. "Demand a lot and achieve your goals, albeit on a smaller scale," seems to be the motto of the White House host, which allows us to hope for a breakthrough in the trade talks between Washington and Beijing. If it happens, oil will have an important argument to continue the rally due to a reliable global demand.

According to UBS, the reduction in production of OPEC and other countries of producers by 1.2 million b/s and a healthy interest in black gold from consumers can lead to pleasant surprises from global reserves, which will have a positive impact on prices in the next few months. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts that the average price of Brent in 2019 will be $70 per barrel. However, some investors believe that 16% of the oil rally from the beginning of the year begins to run out of steam. As a result of the five-day period by February 5 speculators increased short positions for the first time in the last five weeks in the North Sea variety by 28%. Against the background of a modest increase in longs (+5.2%), net long positions declined by about 1% to 233995 futures and options contracts.

Dynamics of speculative positions on Brent

mpqBHvqv37dScvOpLrp5WLvBHiSdEm6PyvZd5fY2

Along with improving the global risk appetite, support for Brent and WTI bulls has been aggressively cutting OPEC production led by Saudi Arabia due to the temporary closure of a part of the Keystone pipeline through which oil flows from Canada to the States, as well as, military clashes near the main black gold deposit in Libya. Additionally, there is the US sanctions against Venezuela and the uncertainty regarding the prolongation of Washington's grace period for purchases of Iranian oil. Also according to polls by experts from Bloomberg, the US stocks will increase by 2.4 million barrels by the end of the week by February 8.

Saudi Arabia is acting aggressively and is ready to cut production to 9.8 million b/d in March, which is 500 thousand b/d more than it promised in the framework of fulfilling its obligations under the OPEC treaty and other producing countries. As a rule, such statements lead to higher prices for black gold. However, a strong US dollar is tied to the legs of the "bulls" weights. The central banks and competitors of the Fed do not intend to normalize the monetary policy, which puts pressure on the currencies issued by them and contributes to the growth of the USD index. Since futures contracts on oil are denominated in dollars, the strengthening of the latter leads to a decrease in prices on the derivatives market.

In technical terms, the Brent correction continues as part of the transformation of the Shark pattern to 5-0. Reversals to 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave are usually used to form short positions.

Brent daily chart

CCS2mWH2ELMF42wJWX44kVzPMSgjjdPMGajeJHQJ

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USA: There will be no second shutdown on February 15

So, there will be no shutdown. Details of the compromise will be known later, how the issue with the wall with Mexico and other details was resolved, but the abolition of the shutdown is positive for the markets.

The second worrying point is that the EU-UK agreement is still in poor condition. Today, February 12, British Prime Minister Theresa May should make a statement and offer some options. Experts believe that the most likely option, Brexit will be postponed for some time, to allow the British authorities to agree on an agreement with the EU.

Euro: On Monday, a downward trend signal was received, a breakthrough of 1.1285 down.

We are waiting for the continuation of the movement.

g6KYm5_881RWUNvJQn0OIVWQjHS05Yz8VkSPES7M

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of EUR / GBP for February 12

Large-scale graphics:

The last wave of the cross that is relevant for today is rising, starting from April of last year. In its structure, the middle part (B) is close to completion.

ERUcKZzFcN9Uvg2fSld-cYZslFNIdHwWqMGtnEtu

Medium scale graphics:

The bearish stretch of December 10th in the larger wave model completes the descending plane. The preliminary targets for the reduction have been achieved, but there are no signals to change the course.

Small-scale graphics:

Despite strong support, the potential of the rising wave of January 25 is not sufficient to reverse the short-term trend. In the near future, a price reduction is expected.

LjA3cDJeTvolEMxe4P2fGZNGfm5CZKPNxTCJnskP

Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming week, the price of the cross-country expects to move down, mainly in the lateral plane. Signals of a change of the main movement vector have not yet been formed, therefore the best tactic remains "out of the market".

Resistance zones:

- 0.8790 / 0.8840

Support areas:

- 0.8700 / 0.8650

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. 12th of February. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Postponement of the voting date of Brexit

4-hour timeframe

6kAvgYhnskIZ1Dh6MAY4zzQ5kNRrkXMCuyUJ8rpq

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -161.0887

The currency pair GBP / USD on Tuesday, February 12, resumed its downward movement after the absolutely disastrous macroeconomic statistics published the day before. We will not speak about the failure of GDP and industrial production and the reasons for this. Brexit continues to put pressure on the UK economy, and the pound sterling. The very procedure of the country's withdrawal from the EU stopped in a dead center, and it is not yet clear how the current British Prime Minister, who has already avoided two resignations on votes of no confidence, is going to solve this stalemate? So far, there is information that Theresa May is going to ask Parliament to postpone the date of voting on the terms of Brexit to the end of February, in order to get a few more weeks to negotiate with EU leaders. Although why does she need these weeks and these negotiations, if the EU has made it clear that there will be no new concessions, like new negotiations? In general, we wrote a month ago that Brexit is entering the final stage. It seems that in this "final" stage, it will remain until March 29, and further, it is possible to postpone Britain's release from the EU to a later date. In particular, the date was January 1, 2020. Thus, this whole epic can be delayed for another year. On February 12, the Bank of England's head Mark Carney is scheduled to speak, who may "add fuel to the fire" with new fears for the "tough" Brexit, but will do his best to reassure the markets.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2817

S2 - 1.2756

S3 - 1.2695

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2878

R2 - 1.2939

R3 - 1.3000

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues its downward movement. Thus, it is still recommended to trade short positions with the goal of 1.2817. Heikin Ashi's turn up will be a signal for manual reduction of the short positions.

Buy positions are recommended to be opened after the price is fixed back above the moving with targets of 1.3000 and 1.3062. There is still no fundamental basis for strengthening the British currency.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD plan for the American session on February 12. Euro buyers are trying to return to the market

To open long positions in EUR / USD pair, you need:

The absence of important news in the euro area led to the development of a buy signal, which I talked about in detail in my morning review today. At the moment, euro buyers need to break lower and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1299, which will increase demand and lead to an update of the highs of 1.1321 and 1.1350, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of a decline in the euro in the afternoon to the morning support of 1.1264, it is best to consider long positions when forming a false breakdown or a rebound from the new minimum of 1.1243.

To open short positions in EUR / USD pair, you need:

In the second half of the day, the chairman of the Federal Reserve System is expected to speak and only a positive tone will be able to return the buyers of the US dollar to the market, which will resume pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Failing to fix above the resistance of 1.1299 will be the first signal to open short positions in euros based on the return and breakdown of support 1.1264, which will open a direct path to new lows in the 1.1243 and 1.1223 areas, where I recommend taking profits. If Jerome Powell turns out to be restrained in his statements, the demand for the euro may continue. In such a scenario, it is best to open new short positions to rebound from the maximum of 1.1321 or after updating the resistance of 1.1350.

Details in the video forecast for February 12

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is falling, which does not give signals to enter the market and a breakthrough of the upper border around 1.1291 may lead to a larger growth of the European currency.

OMK7ZHemEAa9GYMs9bBHazI5jBU1GqnZl8GsAl21

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. 12th of February. The trading system. "Regression Channels". New "Shutdown" for the United States, Powell's speech

4-hour timeframe

UG9SdLlnYh2lagYPON1e8auUjv1UI-11WOcw1rjW

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -126.8487

At the beginning of the new trading week, the EUR / USD currency pair, as if nothing had happened, continues the downward movement, as evidenced by the blue bars of the Heikin Ashi indicator. The pair overcame the Murray level of "1/8" - 1.1292, which opens the way to the next Murray level of "0/8" - 1.1230. However, we still believe that at current price values, the pair is likely to turn to the top with a subsequent increase to the level of 1.1500. It is in this area that the pair has been moving for several months. Thus, the turn of the indicator Heikin Ashi upwards will mean at least a correction, and as a maximum, the beginning of an upward movement. At the same time, nothing prevents the pair from continuing to move down and to update several local minima at once. Thus, the lack of reversal Heikin Ashi upward will indicate the continuation of the downward movement. Of the fundamental events can be noted the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which is scheduled for tonight. In the course of the day, no publications in the Eurozone and States are planned. In the meantime, a new "shutdown" is being prepared in the States, since Donald Trump and the Democrats are still unable to agree on either the wall or the immigration policy. This event may coincide with the technical reversal of the pair to the top.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1230

S2 - 1.1169

S3 - 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1- 1.1292

R2 - 1.1353

R3 - 1.1414

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair continues a slight downward movement. Thus, the short positions remain relevant until the Heikin Ashi indicator is reversed to the top with the goal of Murray level of "1/8" - 1.1230.

It is recommended to open long positions not earlier than the Bulls overcome the moving average line with the target of 1.1414. The trend in the instrument in this case change to ascending.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

February 12, 2019: GBP/USD is demonstrating bullish weakness around the backside of the broken trend.

analytics5c62c16b9314c.png

On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240.

That's when the current bearish pullback was initiated around slightly lower price levels near 1.3215 (around the depicted supply levels in RED).

This was followed by a bearish engulfing daily candlestick on January 29. Thus, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155 as a result.

As expected, the recent bearish decline below 1.3150 brought the GBP/USD pair into a deeper bearish correction towards 1.2920-1.2950 where (38.2% Fibonacci level) as well as the backside of the depicted broken trend are located (in RED).

However, lack of bullish demand was demonstrated on yesterday's daily candlestick. Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2800 where bullish recovery is expected to be demonstrated.

For the bullish side to regain dominance, a bullish breakout above 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) should be re-established early.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can consider the recent decline towards 1.2825-1.2800 as a valid BUY entry. S/L to be located below 1.2760. T/P levels to be located at 1.2890 and 1.3040.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What to expect from the pound: If you go to the left - you fall and to the right - you rise

According to analysts of Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML), the future dynamics of sterling will depend on which way the Brexit pendulum will swing.

"If the United Kingdom leaves the European Union without concluding an agreement, then the British currency may fall in price to $1.10 against the dollar," representatives of the financial institute predicted.

According to them, this event will be a shock not only for the pound but also for the European economy since its growth is already slowing down.

The economy of the currency bloc may suffer more than markets expect, "in the case of the implementation of the" hard "scenario. This may cause a recession in countries such as Italy, Spain and Greece, "noted by BofAML specialists.

"If investors again begin to doubt the stability of the eurozone, then they are likely to consider the UK as a safe haven, and its decision to leave the EU in a more positive way," they added.

However, experts say that "If Brexit is accompanied by an agreement for the transition period, the GBP/USD pair could rise to the level of 1.50".

dYhCPh-HWZXh_AC9a7iyZCeExalRXxn0UeGF2o_V

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The pound continues the last effort

A positive start to the week is reflected in the growth of stock indices and a decrease in the demand for defensive assets is based on several serious reasons. Firstly, it is the resumption of trade negotiations between the United States and China. White House adviser Kellyanne Conway commented on the current situation in a positive way, saying that the deal at the end of the trade war is close to completion. Even if one fails to complete the deadline before March 1, there is no doubt that in the event of a positive dynamic in the negotiations, the deadline may be slightly postponed in order to find time for Trump and X to meet in person.

Secondly, another positive news is the preliminary agreement between the leaders of the Republicans and Democrats on financing the construction of the wall between the United States and Mexico, which means that the threat of renewed shutdown on February 15 has decreased.

Current conditions contribute to the growth in demand for currencies of developing countries. The US dollar will also remain as favorites in risky assets and both gold and the Japanese yen for defensive assets, which will be sold.

Eurozone

For the euro zone, no data is expected until Thursday to publish data that may change the market's assessment. The euro is under pressure for several reasons as EUR/USD fell to strong support at 1.1260/70. An attempt to test this level is more than likely to occur during the day, and if successful, the focus of decline will move to the key level of 1.1215.

Great Britain

The pound reacted negatively to the statistics published on Monday since all of them were worse than forecasts without exception which was an unpleasant surprise for the players. In 2018, the Preliminary data on GDP growth amounted to 0.2% in Q4 and annual growth rates of 1.3%, which is worse than 1.6% a quarter earlier. The main growth was noted in the service sector, and as for construction and industrial production, a slowdown was significant.

5Ps8dWCG--0MPKwcSbKER3AFwvKepe_M4M0-921i

The volume of commercial investments fell in 4 square meters 1.4%, while a 0.2% growth was forecasted, which decreased for the whole year for 3.7%. This is the worst figure in more than 5 years.

The decline in the industrial sector in December also turned out to be stronger than forecast. As a whole, it grew by -0.5% and in the manufacturing industry, it shows -0.7% growth. In both cases, although symbolic, these were predicted in plus. For the first time since 2009, all 4 key indicators for the industry went into the negative zone and taking into account the slowdown in PMI in January, we can assume that this is not yet the limit.

The data on the trade balance in December also turned out to be worse than the forecasts and the NIESR report on GDP growth rates over the past 3 months was already finished, taking into account the month of January. The calculated growth rates were 0.2% against the forecast of 0.3%.

The Bank of England lowered growth forecasts but increased the possible damage from Brexit and actually abandoning the plans to raise rates this year. Hence, there are no macroeconomic grounds for growth in the pound at the moment. The only thing that can throw it above 1.32 is an agreement with the EU on an agreement for a transitional period and this will happen only if the parliamentary crisis is overcome. Theresa May is going to appeal again to the Parliament for a request to give her the opportunity to speak until Thursday and try to convince the lawmakers to accept her plan. But for the time being, it must be assumed that the GBP/USD pair is under strong pressure, the immediate support of 1.2820 may not stand up to the bears.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 02/12/2019

Yesterday's British statistics is badly spoiled, which pulled along a single European currency. Indeed, amid the slowed GDP growth from 1.6% to 1.3%. The decline in investment also increased from -1.9% to -3.7%. If you can, of course, you can get it. Industrial production slowed down from -1.3% to -0.9%, but it should be noted that they were slowing down to -0.4%. Also, the trade deficit amounted to 12.1 billion pounds against 12.4 billion pounds in the previous month. However, it predicted a deficit of 12.0 billion pounds. Hence, even though there was a certain positive trend is visible.

Today, macroeconomic statistics are extremely poor and only data on open vacancies in the United States of America are worthy of attention, whereas the number may increase from 6,888 thousand to 6,960 thousand. However, the JOLTS data practically do not have any impact on the market. Fortunately, Mark Carney and Jerome Powell will perform today. Therefore, they will determine the mood of investors. From the head of the Bank of England, it is not worth waiting for something new. He will continue to talk about the risks and unpredictability of the consequences of Brexit and yesterday's British statistics will be perceived as proof of his words. Therefore in the morning, the pound will be under pressure but the single European currency will wait for the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve System. Jerome Powell is expected to have more specifics about the regulator's plans for the current year and given that inflation data is coming out this week, which should show its slowdown, it becomes clear that the head of the Fed will be extremely careful in his statements. It is possible that he will again make a reservation about the possibility of monetary policy easing, which will become the trigger mechanism triggering the long-awaited correction on the dollar.

Z2w-WebhZUGLDIsIQqzx_VyHeStC8ra_4SabRcD4

The euro/dollar currency pair reached an important range of 1.1270/1.1300, where it slowed down. It is likely that there will be temporary instability in this level and in case of a fixation higher than 1.1310, we can assume a correction.

FhxiYauTl03klLWECLNbYr32GNTQqfGMaso_JZxT

The pound/dollar currency pair continues its downward movement, focusing currently near the value of 1.2850. It is likely that the downward move will still be sustained but a pivot point is possible with a subsequent correction already near the range level of 1.2800.

F2DnG79PifUGOTwFs5D6aQUATbY5V6vjUwx6idhA

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

February 12, 2019: The EUR/USD pair is failing to hold within its daily movement channel.

analytics5c62abd74cb42.png

Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

On February 5, a bearish daily candlestick closure below 1.1420 terminated the recent bullish recovery.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 challenging the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel comes to meet the pair.

On the other hand, a bearish flag pattern may be confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily-chart basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders can look for a counter-trend BUY entry around the current price levels (1.1285) (lower limit of the depicted movement channel).

S/L to be located below 1.1240 while T/P level to be located around 1.1350 and 1.1420.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for February 12, 2019

analytics5c62abf0d041c.png

Bitcoin made a successful breakout of the symmetrical triangle in the background, which is a sign that sellers took control from the buyers. As long as the price is trading below the supply trendline (white line), you should watch for selling opportunities. The key short-term support is set at the price of $3.593 (pullback low after the spike).

Trading recommendation: We are short on Bitcoin from $3.645. Targets are set at the price of $3.593 and $3.543. Protective stop is placed at $3.717.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XAU/USD Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce

XAU/USD is approaching its support at 1298.44 (61.8% & 100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 1308.68 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 4% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

XAU/USD is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 1298.44. Stop loss at 1291.79. Take profit at 1308.68.

analytics5c62a4b4e1b55.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal

USD/CAD is approaching its resistance at 1.3366 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 1.3234 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 97% where a corresponding reversal is expected.

USD/CAD is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 1.3366. Stop loss 1.3446. Take profit at 1.3234.

analytics5c62a468bc395.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/JPY analysis for February 12, 2019

analytics5c62a3d093b32.png

EUR/JPY has been trading sideways at the price of 124.63. According to the H1 time frame, I found a potential end of the upward correction (ABC), which is a sign that buying looks risky. I found a downward movement in the background, so watch for potential selling opportunities. The breakout of the support at 124.48 will confirm a potential test of 123.77. The key intraday resistance is set at the price of 124.85.

Trading recommendation: We will sell EUR/JPY if we see a breakout of the support 124.48 with a target at 123.77 and protective stop at 124.90.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for February 12, 2019

analytics5c629e8e70733.png

Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1.311.00. According to the H1 time frame, I found that Gold did a successful breakout of the bearish flag pattern (ABC correction) which is a sign that selling continues. I also found confirmed the Head and Shoulders pattern in the background which is another sign of weakness. Most recently, there is a rejection from the supply trendline and median Pitchfork trendline, which are sign of the weakness. Key short-term support is set at the price of $1.302.00. The key short-term resistance is set at $1.315.00.

Trading recommendation: We are short on Gold from $1,305.00 and with the targets at $1,286.25-$1,277.80. Protective stop loss order is placed at $1.318.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for February 12, 2019

analytics5c629be057acc.png

Overview:

The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3228. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.3228, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.3228, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend.

According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CAD pair to trade between 1.3228 and 1.3328. So, the support stands at 1.3228, while daily resistance is found at 1.3328. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3228. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.3228 with the first target at the level of 1.3328; and continue towards 1.3295. However, if the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3328 today, the market will decline further to 1.3228 or 1.3200.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for February 12, 2019

analytics5c62996dcaa9a.png

Overview:

Pivot point: 0.7112.

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the level of 0.7046 which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards the first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 12/02/2019

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair had made another lower low at the level of 1.1257 after the technical support at the level of 1.1266 was violated. The market is still decreasing lower and the next target is seen at the level of 1.1239 despite the extremely oversold market conditions.

Due to the bullish divergence building at this time frame, there is s possibility of a horizontal move for some time before the short-term downtrend will continue. The levels to watch for the resistance are 1.1321 - 1.1336.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1528

WR2 - 1.1495

WR1 - 1.1390

Weekly Pivot - 1.1351

WS1 - 1.1247

WS2 - 1.1212

WS3 - 1.1101

Trading recommendations:

All the sell orders from yesterday's recommendation have hit the take profit level at 1.1289, so well done for all that took these positions. Currently, due to the downtrend continuation, the traders should open only sell orders as close as possible to the level of 1.1289 with a target at the level of 1.1239.

analytics5c62916488e48.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for February 12. There is a wave minimum breakout 1

analytics5c6275e5eb859.png

Wave counting analysis:

On Monday, February 11, trading ended for EUR / USD by another 45 bp decline. Thus, the tool performed a successful attempt to break through the level of 100.0% Fibonacci and the minimum of the expected wave 1 of the descending trend section. Thus, the reduction of quotations is now possible with targets near the level of 127.2% and below. So far, there are no prerequisites for the transformation of the current trend segment in the three wave, but still, this option should not be excluded. The 0.0% level on the older Fibonacci grid is the most important for the instrument in the light of the determination of readiness or non-readiness for a strong decline and the construction of 5 waves.

Sales targets:

1.1228 - 127.0% Fibonacci

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1444 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.1514 - 50.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build a downward wave 3. Thus, now, I still recommend selling EUR / USD, but be more cautious with targets around 1.1228 and 1.1215, which corresponds to 127.2% and 0, 0% Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt to break through one of the target marks can lead not only to the departure of quotes from the lows reached, but also to the completion of the construction of a downward trend segment.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 12/02/2019

Technical market overview:

The GBP/USD pair has broken down through the technical support zone between the levels of 1.2920 - 1.2828 and moved down towards the next technical support at the level of 1.2853, but even this level has been violated as well. The new local low on its way down has been made at the level of 1.2844 and it looks like it is not the end of the decline. The next target is seen at the level of 1.2832 and 1.2814. The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3314

WR2 - 1.3207

WR1 - 1.3066

Weekly Pivot - 1.2955

WS1 - 1.2817

WS2 - 1.2712

WS3 - 1.2570

Trading recommendations:

All the targets for sell orders recommended yesterday has been hit at the level of 1.2853, so congratulations to everyone who took the trade. For today, as the downtrend continues, only sell orders should be opened again, preferabclosecloase at possible to the level of 1.2883 with a target at the levels of 1.2832 and 1.2814.

analytics5c6288e899d26.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ethereum Elliott Wave analysis for 12/02/2019

Technical market overview:

The ETH/USD pair has been trading in a tight consolidation zone located between the levels of 116 - 120 USD after the swing high at the level of 124 USD was made. This high might be considered at the top for wave B, but it has not been confirmed yet. The top confirmation will be possible when the price will break below the key technical support zone of 108.46 - 110.33 USD.

Please notice the bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator that support the short-term bearish outlook. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 114 USD and 112.15 USD.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 149.94

WR2 - 135.39

WR1 - 127.42

Weekly Pivot - 112.16

WS1 - 105.12

WS2 - 90.45

WS3 - 82.23

Trading recommendations:

Only the sell orders should be opened as close as possible to the level of 120.81 - 124.10 with a protective stop loss placed above the level of 124.61. The target is technical support at the level of 112.15 and 110.33.

analytics5c6286aa30923.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis for 12/02/2019

Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis for 12/02/2019

The market is consolidating the gains, higher prices still possible.

Technical market overview:

The BTC/USD price is now consolidating in a narrow range between the levels of $3,606 - $3,676 and a breakout higher is being expected, mainly due to the fact the up move has not been completed yet. From the Elliott wave point of view, the current price action is a wave 4 correction in progress, so there is wave 5 left anyway. The targets for wave 5 are seen at the levels of $3,763 and $3,850.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $4,242

WR2 - $4,002

WR1 - $3,885

Weekly Pivot - $3,610

WS1 - $3,455

WS2 - $3,290

WS3 - $3,068

Trading recommendations:

After the spike up the traders should try to buy the BTC at one of the buyback zones: $3,591 - $3,631 with a solid protective stop-loss order. The targets should be placed at the level of $3,767 or even above as the impulsive wave progression will unfold.

analytics5c62852c9ea28.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on February 12, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

On Tuesday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1251 is the support line (blue bold line).

eurusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1251 is the support line (blue bold line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (February 11)

By the end of the trading week, the Euro / Dollar currency pair again showed extremely low volatility of 30 points, but the overall plan has not yet changed for the downward movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a stable downward movement with a starting value of 1.1515, where traders are confidently directed towards the main range level of 1.1280 / 1.1300, which, in principle, has almost happened. The news background over the past weekend did not have any attacks. British Prime Minister Theresa May promises new debates on Brexit, waiting for a chance to negotiate with EU officials. There is almost no time left until the day "X" because Britain leaves the European Union in less than 47 days (March 29). Meanwhile, voting in the Parliament regarding the Brexit agreement is postponed from the current week to an unspecified date.

analytics5c61650a94638.jpg

Further development

Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see how earlier forecasts are performed on the trading schedule. The quotation still managed to touch the range level 1.1280 / 1.1300, where it already feels a certain point of support. It is likely to assume that the current coordinates in the face of the level of 1.1280 / 1.1300 will try to keep the quote and bring some kind of corrective movement to the market. In turn, traders lead their short positions to the finish line, which they still kept from breaking through the level of 1.1440. Another part of the traders will have to wait a little bit longer, tracking the foothold for the breakdown, while holding a much smaller part of the position in the market.

Based on the data available, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

analytics5c61651d336d8.png

- Buy positions are considered in the case of working out the range level 1.1280 / 1.1300 and price fixing is higher than 1.1340

- We consider selling positions in case of a clear price fixing lower than 1.1270.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short term, there has been an upward interest against the background of the initial testing of the range level. Intraday and mid-term perspective preserves the descending interest against the general background of the movement.

LKb4Pp8pQ9FngDoI5VrrsskN688db4qMBiXkbsY0

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(February 11 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 44 points. It is likely to assume that the volatility of the day will be lower than the average daily indicator, referring to earlier statistics and the possibility of a temporary stagnation within the range level.

4KzhoGfAFyuB6ie9DXvzfs88U_gKZFaq4SXP0vd0

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1350 *; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100.

Support areas: 1.1300 **; 1.1214 **; 1.1120; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for Gold for February 12, 2019

Despite Dollar strength Gold price remains above recent lows at $1,302 and continues to respect previous resistance now support at $1,300. Breaking above $1,317 will open the way for new highs.

analytics5c627fc445f00.png

Purple lines - bullish channel

Yellow rectangle- support

Black rectangle - resistance

Gold price remains in a bullish trend. Price is above the $1,300 support and still inside the bullish channel. Resistance is found at $1,317 and if broken we should see a test of $1,326 at least. A rejection at $1,326 will most probably lead to another move towards $1,300. If we break above $1,326 we should expect Gold price to reach $1,340-50 area.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning forecast 12.02.2019

On Monday, the euro broke down an important level of 1.1285 and closed the day below the range limit.

This is an important technical signal at the beginning of a big trend downwards.

However, while such an option is possible: the signal may turn out to be false - the price has passed too short a distance in the direction of a breakthrough - and there is an option of a reversal upwards.

We keep selling from 1.1285 and look forward to a continuation of the downward movement.

In the event of a full reversal, we are ready to buy the euro not closer than 1.1515.

g19ia0CipdiWVWBLPUuFnJR1IRTPiTdx1AYUcp06

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for EUR/USD for February 12, 2019

EUR/USD has made a new lower low relative to the January low. This is a bearish development for the medium- and longer-term trend. Our expectations of a bounce were not confirmed as price remained below 1.1350 resistance and provided a new lower low below 1.1280. Nevertheless I believe bears will get better entry points after a bounce rather than short the market at current prices.

analytics5c627ee56e853.png

Red line - major trend line resistance

Green line - trend line support

Black rectangles - bounce targets

Black lines - bullish divergence

Despite the new lower low the RSI continues to provide a bullish divergence. The entire decline from 1.15 will soon be over if it is not already over and I continue to expect a bounce. Targets for a bounce are at 1.1360-1.1370 and at 1.1420. Trend remains bearish as long as price is below the red downward sloping trend line. Medium to longer-term target is at 1.10 as long as we trade below 1.15.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for February 12. The pair is ready to complete the first wave

DiaXNhbDaqIl3hAtkk1bssWiMuSpQt3ql4N8YJYm

Wave counting analysis:

On February 11, the GBP / USD pair lost about 85 bp, therefore going to the construction of an estimated wave of 5, 1, or a new downward trend. In the near future, the pair may complete the construction of this wave and proceed to the construction of a corrective 2 or b. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 50.0% level on the older Fibonacci grid could just lead to this. On the other hand, the news background still does not contribute to the pound sterling increase, but a not too deep wave 2 or b can still be built. In the near future, Theresa May is going to continue its negotiations with the EU and postpone the date of voting on the plan for leaving the European Union to a later date.

Shopping goals:

1.3216 - 0.0% Fibonacci (formal goal)

Sales targets:

1.2827 - 50.0% Fibonacci

1.2734 - 61.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern implies the completion of the construction of the first wave of the downward trend section in the near future. Thus, now, I recommend closing sales when there are signs of completion of this wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.2827 mark could be such a sign. Consequently, I expect to build a correctional wave.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on February 12, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

On Monday, the market moved down, reaching the lower fractal of 1.2854, but closing over this level. On Tuesday, the price will attempt to get and test the rolling 50.0% level - 1.2828 (blue dotted line). Strong calendar news today comes out at 16.00, 18.00 and 20.45 Moscow time.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price will move down. The first lower target 1.2828 is a rolling 50.0% level (blue dashed line), then a possible rollback.

gbpusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price will move down. The first lower target 1.2828 is the 50.0% sliding level (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on February 12. An important moment for buyers of the euro

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday, another fall at the beginning of the week was quite expected, but now there is a real hope for buyers of the euro to form an upward correction. Long positions can be seen after updating the previous day's low in the support area of 1.1264, but under the condition that a divergence is forming on the MACD indicator. The main task of sellers will be to return to the resistance level of 1.1299, above which the demand for EUR/USD will increase, which will lead to an update of the high of 1.1321 and 1.1350, where I recommend taking profits. If there is no demand in the support area of 1.1264, I recommend returning to long positions only after updating lows 1.1243 and 1.1223.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The best scenario for bears today will be the euro rise in the first half of the day to the resistance area of 1.1299, and the formation of a false breakdown at this level will be the first signal to open new short positions in order to break through yesterday's low at around 1.1264 and update support at 1.1243, where I recommend to take profit. In case of an unsuccessful breakout of 1.1264 low, it is best to look at short positions after an upward correction to rebound from the highs of 1.1321 and 1.1350.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger Bands

In case of an upward correction, the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1315 will be a good level for opening short positions in the euro.

l8VTQOQrTrNymgMEAnyEdIio5Oact2d4Q4YTvSXd

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days-yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days-green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for February 12, 2019

EUR/JPY is currently trading higher after breaking below 125.00 with a daily close recently. The price is expected to make a correctional decline along the way. The eurozone is facing a slowdown which has been proved by recent downbeat economic reports. This is certainly bearish for EUR.

Citing Finance Minister Mario Centeno, a slowdown in the eurozone's economy is caused by political risks which the EU policymakers should bear in mind. Most countries in the eurozone have reported evidence of a slowdown in their domestic economies that dents the overall growth in the eurozone. Another headwind is the looming divorce of the UK with the EU. Moreover, ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos recently stated that the inflation will rise on the back of higher wages and ultra-loose monetary policy. Today, German Buba President Weidmann is going to speak on the eurozone's key interest rates and future monetary policies. His speech is unlikely to provide EUR with support. In case the policymaker expresses hawkish rhetoric, certain bullish momentum is expected in the pair in the coming days.

On the JPY side, today M2 Money Stock report was published unchanged as expected at 2.4% whereas Tertiary Industry Activity showed a slight increase to -0.3% from the previous value of -0.4% which failed to meet the expected value of -0.1% and Prelim Machinery Tools Orders showed a slight decrease to -18.8% from the previous value of -18.3% which affected the overall JPY growth, leading to certain EUR gains for a while. At present, JPY is a firmer currency in the pair on the back of stronger Japan's economy, while a slowdown in the eurozone's economy is affecting EUR strength.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has recently breached below 125.00 area and as well as the trendline support which is currently being retested. The price is currently expected to push lower towards 122.50 support area in the coming days as it remains below 126.00 area with a daily close.

SUPPORT: 122.50, 123.50

RESISTANCE: 125.00, 126.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5c6268850bd9b.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD for February 12, 2019

GBP/USD

On Monday, the release of data on the British economy disappointed as soon as it could. GDP for the 4th quarter grew by 0.2% against expectations of 0.3%, December's GDP fell by -0.4% against the forecast of 0.0%, the trade balance for December showed a negative balance of -12.1 billion pounds against the forecast of -12.0 billion, and the November figure was revised to deterioration from -12.0 billion to -12.4 billion pounds. Industrial production in December shrank by -0.5% against expectations for a growth of 0.1%. As a result, the pound lost 89 points in the market.

On the daily chart, the price went below the Krusenstern indicator trend line, on the four-hour chart the price continues to fall below the balance line (red indicator), but formed upward convergence with the Marlin. This circumstance preserves the possibility of a correction to the consolidation range of 1.2930/75. A reason for this correction could come from today's speech by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney on the prospects of economic instability and trade tensions in the world. Later, at 16:45 London time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on the topic of economic development in agricultural communities. The lack of optimistic incentives may send the price to the target level of 1.2784. Consolidating below it unfolds a scenario of a decline to 1.2617.

DMEBXypeiNkH4r59oTUozKJcRyuPGGtZBQLrbXUu

v5pC8zTJ8E0wi_WBUJT6XMTZQ2g9KOV3tqJ1QcNI

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD for February 12, 2019

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar was timidly approaching the support of the price channel line, towards the level of 0.7040, falling only by 48 points in 3 days. As a result, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the four-hour chart turned up and is about to move into the growth zone. The correction band is formed by the Feb 11th high and the line of Krusenstern on the H4 – 0.7108/40.

Whether the price can still complete the nearest support of the price channel is a rhetorical question. Over the past 12 months, the price has always touched or crossed it before a reversal, albeit corrective, but, on the other hand, a year is a long enough period for this pattern to be broken at least once.

Consolidating the price at 0.7040 will make it possible for it to strengthen the decline to 0.6920.

8ql7n6ZH1NNdfW_onesc6DKzr3_OXyNaM6dp5CSH

IPmNaPR0HIX10ax5PCvHCztwumD2VqlSr8Eby1fF

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for February 12, 2019

GBP/USD dropped below 1.2930 area under impulsive bearish pressure recently which changed the bias to bearish, aiming for further bearish momentum. The UK GDP showed a slowdown in the domestic economy in the final quarter of 2018. Besides, the BREXIT pressure is still going on that is certainly bearish for GBP for the medium term.

British Finance Minister Hammond's expressed an optimistic approach to turn the country's budget deficit to surplus by 2020. However, his optimism is currently fading away as he relaxed his grip on public spending last year. Recently UK GDP report revealed that economic growth contracted to -0.4% in December month-on-month from the previous 0.2% gain which was expected to be at 0.0%, Manufacturing Production decreased to -0.7% from the previous value of -0.1% which was expected to increase to 0.2%, Prelim GDP eased to 0.2% in Q4 2018 from the previous value of 0.6% which was expected to be at 0.3%, and Prelim Business Investments also decreased to -1.4% from the previous value of -1.1% which was expected to be at -1.3%. Additionally, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is currently looking for more BREXIT talks with the EU but the eurozone negotiator is not really falling for May's proposal which may lead to more probability of No Deal BREXIT on March 29th.

On the other hand, recently Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated the US economy is on a sound footing and the ongoing monetary policy is likely to spur economic growth. The US congressional negotiators reached a tentative deal to avert another partial government shutdown on Friday as it is slowing down the overall economic growth and may lead to further weakness of the economy if no proper measures are taken in due time. Today FED Chair Powell is going to speak about the upcoming policies and steps of monetary tightening. His comments are expected to have a positive impact on USD gains in the coming days.

Meanwhile, USD is the dominant currency in the pair which is being supported by the optimistic FED and downbeat economic reports from the UK. Until the UK comes up with better economic data and fundamentals which is highly unlikely at present, GBP is set to lose more steam.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading below 1.2930 area with an impulsive bearish daily close from where it is expected to retrace and retest in the coming days before pushing much lower in the future. As the price remains below 1.30 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 1.2500, 1.2700-50

RESISTANCE: 1.2930, 1.30

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5c625fac0fb66.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com