EUR/NZD analysis for October 20, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the level of 1.6630. In the daily time frame, we can observe a weak demand bar. Our 6-day support level at 1.6845 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%) got finally broken and we can see a potential test at the level of 1.6280. The price is still moving in a downward channel. Selling opportunities are preferable. I am waiting for larger liquidity and stronger price action to confirm further downward continuation. The first support level is seen at 1.6505. I had placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential mid-term support levels and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the level of 1.6860 (broken), Fibonacci retracement 50% at 1.6280, and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at 1.5740. The intraday trend is downward.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6750

R2: 1.6790

R3: 1.6855

Support levels:

S1: 1.6620

S2: 1.6575

S3: 1.6510

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.

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Gold analysis for October 20 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,174.00 in a high volume. The short-mid term trend is still upward. In the daily time frame, we can observe a supply bar in a volume below the average. In the H1 time frame, we can observe a support-cluster around the level of $1,171.00. Besides, the price broke a downward channel (bullish flag). I had placed major Fibonacci expansion to find potential objective points and got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the level of $1,191.00 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the level of $1,247.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points :

Resistance levels

R1: 1,176.70

R2: 1,178.75

R3: 1,182.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,170.25

S2: 1,168.25

S3: 1,165.00

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities on dips. The next resistance level is seen around $1,191.00-$1,247.00.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 20, 2015

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Review:

In the H4 chart:

  • The double top for the NZD/USD pair is seen at the level of 0.6896.
  • The support is found at 0.6740. This level is going to represent the weekly support 1, because the major support has already represented the weekly support 1.
  • Moreover, the double bottom is also coinciding with the major support in the same time frame.
  • We expect a range of 136 pips in coming days because the market seems trapping between the levels of 0.6760 and 0.6896.

Trading recommandations:

  • TheThe major support is found at the level of 0.6740. Buy above this area with targets at 0.6848 and 0.6896 in order to test the double top. However, stop loss should be set below the support level of 0.6740.

Intraday technical levels:

  • Projected high: 0.6896
  • Breakout (buy stop): 0.6810
  • Current Pivot: 0.6795
  • Projected low: 0.6740
  • Breakout (sell stop): 0.8432
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 20, 2015

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Overview:

  • TheThe USD/CHF pair has rebounded from minor resistance at the level of 0.9550. Now, it is approaching its support in order to test it again. As it is known, we use historic rates to determine future prices, so it will probably start downside movement in this area and recover again to the level of 0.9550, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. It should be noted that the strong resistance was already found at the level of 0.9619. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell at this spot with the first target at 0.9481 and continue towards 0.9440 in order to form a new double bottom in the H4 chart. On the other hand, if a break takes place at the level of 0.9625, it will be a good location for stop loss below 0.9640. The value of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement was calculated at 0.9619. If the price hits 0.9625, it will continue moving towards 0.9717. You should check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios might have become invalidated.
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Global macro overview for 20/10/2015

Global macro overview for 20/10/2015:

Will the Swiss National Bank sell the franc again in case the ECB expands the QE program in the near future? The Bloomberg monthly poll revealed that 63% of the analyst wee seeing further SNB interventions if the currency battle intensified and 42% suggested another deposit rate cut soon. ECB President Mario Draghi already said he was ready for more actions if necessary, especially if the inflation levels were stubbornly weak and global demand slowed even further. The current ECB bond-buying program is 1.1 trillion euros.

The EUR/CHF pair is currently trading at important daily support at the level of 1.0816 and it is still above the golden trend line. The next support is seen at the level of 1.0707.

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Global macro overview for 20/10/2015

Global macro overview for 20/10/2015:

The monetary policy meeting minutes were released overnight from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The minutes revealed that the RBA thinks the low Australian dollar and very low interest rates are helping the economy so far and are strengthening the labor market. Moreover, this month's minutes revealed the RBA is nowhere near to cut the rates below 2% again this year as the second quarter growth figures were considered to represent a temporary weakness. Nevertheless, the main risks for the economy might still come from the housing market as lending and mortgage prices vary across the country.

The AUD/USD pair is testing the support at the level of 0.7280. In case of any breakout lower, the next support is seen at the level of 1.7198.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 20, 2015

General overview for 20/10/2015 09:55 CET

One of the possible scenarios for wave b green development is a triangle pattern. Currently, two more sub-waves are needed to complete the triangle pattern before a breakout lower would happen. On the other hand, any breakout above the level of 136.00 would invalidate the pattern scenario and make wave b green more extended to the upside.

Support/Resistance:

136.95 - Wave D Top

136.58 - WR1

136.00 - Intraday Resistance

135.68 - Weekly Pivot

134.79 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening sell orders from the current price levels with SL above the level of 136.20 and TP at the level of 134.75.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 20, 2015

General overview for 20/10/2015 09:45 CET

On the hourly chart, we can see a potential impulsive wave development to the upside that currently has three waves up. One more wave up is needed to complete the structure, but the price can not go below the invalidation line at the level of 1.2938. On the other hand, bullish upward cycle will be confirmed with a daily close above 1.3080 level ( inside the bullish zone).

Support/Resistnace:

1.3079 - Intraday Resistnace

1.3067 - WR1

1.2955 - Intraday Support

1.2935 - Weekly Pivot

1.2938 - Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

Yesterday's take profit level has been hit and profit were made. For today, daytraders should consider buying the intraday support at the level of 1.2955 with SL just below 1.2935 and TP at the level of 1.3080.

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USDX technical analysis for October 20, 2015

The US dollar index has reached important short-term resistance levels and is expected to make a pullback. As long as the index is above 94.40, bulls have a chance of another bounce higher to try and break above the critical resistance at 95.80.

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Red line - resistance

Green line - support

The US dollar index is below the Ichimoku cloud. Support is found at 94.40 and resistance is seen at 95.80. I expect the US dollar index to remain weak and push lower towards the green line support. A 4-hour close below 94.40 will open the way to new short-term lows.

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Red line -weekly resistance

Green line - weekly support

The weekly candle is trying to break above the Ichimoku cloud upper boundary. However, a rejection here will push the index towards the green trend-line support. Long-term support is found at the 38% Fibonacci retracement, the level, which US dollar bulls should not ignore.

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Gold technical analysis for October 20, 2015

Gold price holds above the short-term support at $1,170. This is the time to take profits as gold price has reached a top and is expected to hit a marginal new high soon and reverse back to $1,120-$1,100.

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Red lines - bullish channel

Green line - resistance

Gold price remains above the Ichimoku cloud. The price is below the green trend line and has broken the bullish channel. Gold price is vulnerable, but a bounce is justified from current levels specially if the price breaks above the green trend-line resistance at $1,177.

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Gold price is heading towards our target of the Ichimoku cloud at $1,200. The Stochastic oscillator is entering overbought levels and this is a sign for gold bulls to be of cautious. I expect gold to reverse from higher levels and move back towards $1,120-$1,100. So, this is not a good time to buy.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 20, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair did not perform any significant movement yesterday (just like most popular pairs). However, there could be some serious movement today or tomorrow, which would most probably be in favor of bulls because the outlook for the pair is currently bullish.

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USD/CHF: There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the USD/CHF pair; plus the pair would remain under selling pressure as long as the EUR/USD pair is in a bullish mode. So, it is logical to conclude that the movement in the USD/CHF would be largely determined by whatever happens to EUR/USD.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair was unable to break above the distribution territory of 1.5500 last week - something that needs to be achieved this week. An uptrend could continue. The uptrend would be rational as long as the accumulation territory of 1.5200 is not broken to the downside. This means that any noticed pullbacks in the market could be taken as an opportunity to go long.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument is still at the neutral territory. The price must either go above the supply level of 121.00 or go below the demand level at 118.00. Until now, swing and position traders might prefere to stay away from the market.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY cross did not move that much on Monday, but some movements are expected this week. A movement below the demand zone of 134.50 would result in a bearish outlook (though it is expected that the demand zone would defend the extant bullish outlook). Any movement above the supply zone of 136.00 would reinforce an existing bullish outlook, which might mean that last week's pullback was a nice opportunity to go long.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 20, 2015

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Wave summary:

We thought that a firm bottom was seen at 1.6486 and a new impulsive rally was slowly developing. In the short term, we would like to see a break above the base-channel resistance line near 1.6851 for a continuation higher towards important resistance at 1.7198. It will confirm that a firm bottom is in place.

In the long term, a breakout above 1.7198 will also call for a rally higher to 1.8021 and above here being very bullish.

Only an unexpected breakout below 1.6485 will point to more downside pressure.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6555 with stop placed at 1.6480. If you are not long EUR yet, buy near 1.6590 or upon a break above 1.6750 and use the same stop at 1.6480.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 20, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news on the Current Account and German PPI m/m is due to be released. The US will publish economic data about Housing Starts and Building Permits. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1385.

Strong Resistance:1.1378.

Original Resistance: 1.1367.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1356.

Target Inner Area: 1.1329.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1302.

Original Support: 1.1291.

Strong Support: 1.1280.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1273.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 20, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data, but the US will publish news on Housing Starts and Building Permits. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.11.

Resistance. 2: 119.88.

Resistance. 1: 119.65.

Support. 1: 119.36.

Support. 2: 119.13.

Support. 3: 118.89.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 20, 2015

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Wave summary:

We are getting nowhere at the moment. We are still firmly locked inside the triangle pattern, looking for clues about when a thrust of the triangle should be imminent. The first clue would be a break below minor support of 134.36 with a call for a test of important support at 133.11. It will confirm an expected downside thrust and decline below 126.05 in the longer term.

That said, we will have consider a possible upside breakout, which will be confirmed by a break above 137.44.

Trading recommendation:

We continue to look for a selling opportunity at 135.95 or upon a break below minor support at 134.91.

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Daily analysis of USDX for October 20, 2015

There is a higher high pattern formation above the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, but the resistance zone of 94.98 could push lower the index towards the support level of 94.61. A breakout below this level will expose 94.15 as the next key support level. A mid-term bullish trend should start when the USDX breaks higher above the resistance zone of 95.30. The MACD indicator is entering the negative territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.98 / 95.30

H1 chart's support levels: 94.61 / 94.15

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US dollar index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is seen at 94.61, take profit is at 94.15, and stop loss is at 95.09.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 20, 2015

Monday was a bullish day for GBP/USD, on the intraday basis at least, because the pair was consolidating above the support zone of 1.5458. Now, the cable could test the resistance level of 1.5506, where a breakout towards the 1.5543 level could happen. In the H1 chart, we can observe a very strong sell zone around 1.5506, so the pair should face off that level before any rallies to reach new highs. The MACD indicator is at the negative territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5506 / 1.5543

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5458 / 1.5411

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 1.5506, take profit is at 1.5543, and stop loss is at 1.5471.

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