Indicator analysis. Daily review on July 16, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

On Monday, the pair did not manage to overcome the rolling level of 38.2% - 1.2572 (blue dashed line) and went down. On Tuesday, the pair will try to continue moving down. Strong calendar news is expected at 8:30 UTC+00 (pound), 12:00 UTC+00 (pound), 12:30 UTC+00, 17:00 UTC+00 (dollar).

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Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price will continue to move down, with the first goal of 1.2440 - the lower fractal.

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price will continue to move down with the first goal of 1.2440 - the lower fractal.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for July 16, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, according to the weekly calculation, the downward movement will continue until the news at 12:30 UTC+00 with the first target of 1.1251 - a rolling back level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, according to the weekly calculation, the downward movement will continue until the news at 12:30 UTC+00 with the first target of 1.1251 - a rolling back level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

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Overview of GBP/USD on July 16. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". Candidate for the post of head of the European

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: -8.6999

The British pound spent about two days above the MA, once again showed its inability to grow and returned to the area below the MA. Thus, now we can state the resumption of the downward trend, and to all the fundamental reasons for the fall of the pound, technical ones are added. The prospects for the British currency remain extremely rosy. Even when Jerome Powell spoke in Congress, hinting at a preventive reduction in the key rate in July, the pound is not that much more expensive. All the leaders and heads of key departments of the European Union said that the current version of the "deal" on Brexit will not be reviewed, so all the threats of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt to leave the EU on the "hard" scenario did not seem to frighten Brussels too much. Moreover, the EU does not want to lose the UK and is well aware that the new negotiations, the best conditions for London will lead to its exit from the EU. And with the current version of the "deal" that does not suit the Parliament, there are options. For example, Laborists will still push the scenario with the second referendum. Today in the UK, Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney will deliver a speech, as well as reports on unemployment and changes in average wages will be published. This news may "help" the pound sterling to continue falling.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2512

S2 – 1.2482

S3 – 1.2451

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2543

R2 – 1.2573

R3 – 1.2604

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP/USD pair fixed back below the MA. Thus, it is now recommended to sell the pound with the closest targets at 1.2482 and 1.2451.

It will be possible to buy the pound/dollar pair with the targets of 1.2573 and 1.2604 after fixing the price back above the moving average line, but with the minimum lots.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Overview of EUR/USD on July 16. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". Jerome Powell's speech at the G7 summit may not

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 30.3935

The first trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair ended exactly as it began. The volatility of the pair remained very low, and trading took place near the moving average line, directed to the side. Today, July 16, the next speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be held, this time at the summit of Finance Ministers and heads of the Central Bank G-7. It is unlikely that Powell's rhetoric will be changed, it is unlikely that the probability of a Fed rate cut in July will decrease, and it is unlikely that traders will react to Powell's speech with dollar sales. Yes, we believe that the Forex market has repeatedly worked out the information that the Fed is ready to lower the key rate in July, and will no longer play it. In addition to Powell's speech, two important macroeconomic reports will be released in the United States today. These are retail sales and industrial production for June. The forecasts are quite low, but still, indicate a minimum increase in both indicators. If in fact, the values are below forecasts, this may cause pressure on the US currency and confirm that the Fed is right in its intention to soften monetary policy. From a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair once again returned to the moving average and it is clearly visible that it cannot continue to move up.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1169

S3 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1292

R2 – 1.1353

R3 – 1.1414

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to be located just above the moving average. Now, therefore, it is recommended to consider the minimum purchase of the euro with the goals of 1.1292 and 1.1353 after the reversal of the indicator Heiken Ashi up.

It is recommended to buy the US dollar after the bears consolidate back below the moving average line, which will change the trend to a downward one, and the targets will be the levels of 1.1230 and 1.1169.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Burning forecast 07/16/2019 EURUSD and trading recommendation

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The momentum of a falling dollar, given by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on a report to Congress, seems exhausted.

There is no strong news yet that can give a new impetus to the market.

Perhaps today at 12:30 London time, data from the US that is set to be released will increase volatility.

The market is waiting for an impulse from the Fed report "Beige Book" on Wednesday.

EURUSD: Choosing a future direction.

From the point of view of technical analysis, you can buy at a breakthrough up 1.1290 and then at 1.1325

Sales are possible with a break down 1.1190

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 16/07/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Ethereum's co-founder, Vitalik Buterin, proposed the use of Blockchain Bitcoin Cash as a temporary scalability solution for the Ethereum network. The developer presented a summary of this idea in an article published in Ethereum Research.

The Ethereum network has experienced some scalability problems because its native Blockchain can process just 15 transactions per second (TPS), while its main competitor, Ripple, is reportedly holding 1,500 TPS.

Therefore, the Ethereum community is working on Ethereum 2.0, a major network update that will improve its scalability after passing ETH from proof-of-work to the proof-of-stake algorithm.

While the first stages of Ethereum 2.0 change are expected to appear in early 2020, Buterin has now suggested the implementation of other Blockchain networks as a new option to improve Ethereum's scalability in the short run. Buterin said that Blockchain Bitcoin Cash fits this goal perfectly, because the cryptocurrency provides a bandwidth of about 53 kilobytes (KB) per second, unlike 8 KB Ethereum.

In addition, Buterin presented three other important reasons why it is worth using this network, including low fees, the readiness of necessary machines and the openness of the Bitcoin Cash community to people using Blockchain "to whatever they want, as long as they pay transaction fees.

In the post, Buterin indicated a 10-minute blocking time for Bitcoin Cash as the main obstacle to obtaining a good Ethereum scalability solution. The expert noted, however, that this problem can be solved by means of payments without confirmation using techniques such as Avalanche before consensus.

The crypto community on Twitter negatively assessed the new Bitcoin Cash Buterin integration proposal, and some commentators predicted that such a scenario could lead both Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash to a faster fall.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has bounced 50% from the recent swing low located at the level of $190.94. There is still a potential for a further rally higher as this might have been the last of the corrective waves down and the market might be ready to resume the uptrend. The key technical resistance to confirm the move up is seen at the level of $259.81.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $421.78

WR2 - $368.25

WR1 - $298.00

Weekly Pivot - $241.50

WS1 - $169.20

WS2 - $118.90

WS3 - $41.01

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 16/07/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

A bill that allegedly would ban the use of cryptocurrencies in India is disseminated by Blockchain's local legal experts in social media.

An unverified document published by technical lawyer Varuna Sethi seems to disclose a bill entitled "Ban cryptocurrencies and regulation of official digital currencies." Even if it is authentic, the bill will not be allegedly discussed during the monsoon session of the Indian parliament in 2019, according to one of the local industry figures.

The document, containing 18 pages, proposes to define the cryptocurrency as: "any information or code, number or token that is not part of any Official Digital Currency, generated by cryptographic means or otherwise, providing a digital representation of values"

The proposed law suggests that "digital rupiah" - digitally issued by the reserve bank of the country - would be approved by the central government as legal tender, while all currencies that meet the definition of cryptocurrencies would be completely banned: "No one can dig, generate, store, sell, spend, transfer, dispose or use cryptocurrencies in India" - we read.

The proposed ban does not apply to persons using DLT technology or other related technologies for experimental or research purposes, including in an educational context, provided that no cryptocurrencies are involved in the transaction.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has almost hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $11,060 after a bounce from the level of $9,826. From the Elliott wave theory point of view, the whole move down is still in three waves, which is typical for the correction and the last leg of it has been labeled as wave Y. It means, the corrective cycle WXY might have been completed, so it is worth to wait for the market to confirm the bottom is in the place.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $14,838

WR2 - $13,876

WR1 - $11,942

Weekly Pivot - $11,071

WS1 - $9,127

WS2 - $8,276

WS3 - $6,180

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 16/07/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

Despite the positive momentum behind the recent rally on the GBP/USD pair, the bulls were unable to break through the trendline located around the level of 12570. Moreover, the price fell out of the channel so now is getting closer to the technical support. The market conditions are now overbought, but the momentum is still positive, so if the bulls will make it, then ten the next target is seen at the level of 1.2591 and 1.2641.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 12770

WR2 - 1.2670

WR1 - 1.2630

Weekly Pivot - 1.2528

WS1 - 1.2496

WS2 - 1.2396

WS3 - 1.2356

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to follow the larger timeframe trend. The larger time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of any trend reversal. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2420 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2775 and only if this level is violated, there is a chance for the trend reversal.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 16/07/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has again tested the technical resistance located at the level of 1.1269. The local high was made at the level of 1.1285, but the price has made another Pin Bar candlestick formation is it looks like the bears want it to get back into the channel zone. The market conditions are now overbought, but the momentum remains positive, so there is still a chance for a rally (decreasing with every passing hour). The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1224.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1406

WR2 - 1.1342

WR1 - 1.1312

Weekly Pivot - 1.1251

WS1 - 1.1222

WS2 - 1.1157

WS3 - 1.1125

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to buy the corrections in anticipation of the uptrend to resume. This strategy is valid as long as the level of 1.1181 is clearly violated. The larget time frame trend is still down, but there are signs of the trend reversal and the Ending Diagonal breakout to the upside.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for July 16 - 2019

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GBP/JPY has made a new low for the corrective decline from 148.87. The ideal target for the ongoing correction in wave 2 is seen at 134.50 which we expect will be tested shortly. Once this target has been tested or on a break above minor resistance at 135.50, a new impulsive rally in wave 3 is expected.

A break above minor resistance at 135.50 will be the first strong indication that wave 2 has completed and wave 3 is moving higher, while a break above resistance at 136.03 will confirm that wave 3 is unfolding.

R3: 136.03

R2: 135.80

R1: 135.50

Pivot: 135.25

S1: 134.92

S2: 134.75

S3: 134.50

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 135.00 was hit. We will re-buy GBP at 134.75 or upon a break above 135.50.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 16 - 2019

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EUR/JPY continues to push lower towards the ideal target at 120.62. This should complete wave II and set the stage for the next impulsive rally higher. Short-term support is seen at 121.29 and a break below here will add downside pressure towards the ideal target at 120.62.

Short-term minor resistance is seen at 122.32 and a break above here will be the first indication that wave II has completed and wave III is developing. Besides, a break above resistance at 123.36 will confirm that wave III is developing

R3: 122.23

R2: 121.85

R1: 121.67

Pivot: 121.48

S1: 121.29

S2: 120.92

S3: 120.62

Trading recommendation:

We are look for a EUR-buying opportunity at 120.85 or upon a break above 122.23

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 16,2019

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When the European market opens, sucheconomic data as ZEW Economic Sentiment, Trade Balance, German ZEW EconomicSentiment, and Italian Trade Balance will be published. The US will release such economic data as TIC Long-Term Purchases, NAHB Housing Market Index,Business Inventories m/m, Industrial Production m/m, CapacityUtilization Rate, Import Prices m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and Core RetailSales m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1314. Strong Resistance:1.1308. Original Resistance: 1.1297. Inner Sell Area: 1.1286.Target Inner Area: 1.1260. Inner Buy Area: 1.1234. Original Support: 1.1223. Strong Support: 1.1212. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1206. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, July 16, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data today, but the US will publish some economic data such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, NAHB Housing Market Index, Business Inventories m/m, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Import Prices m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3: 108.58. Resistance. 2: 108.37. Resistance. 1: 108.15. Support. 1: 107.90. Support. 2: 107.69. Support. 3: 107.47.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD / JPY pair on July 16, 2019

USD / JPY pair

The local historical level of 107.87 (at least June 3-4) turned out to be strong support for the price and the price could not overcome it in the last four sessions. Marlin oscillator signal line starts to turn upward on the daily chart. Overcoming the balance line, which coincides with the top of yesterday, will allow the price to grow more confidently to the MACD line at 108.92, which also coincides with the nested line of the price channel.

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On the four-hour chart, a convergence formed with the Marlin oscillator. Halfway to the first target level, the price is waiting for the resistance of the MACD line at 108.40, where some growth is possible.

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GBP/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

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GBPUSD is approaching our first support where we expect a bounce above this level.

Entry: 1.2510

Why it's good : horizontal swing low support, 50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 1.2470

Why it's good : 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal overlap support

Take Profit : 1.2583

Why it's good: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8%, 100% Fibonacci extension

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AUD/USD reversed off its resistance, potential drop!

analytics5d2d4ef7dc0eb.jpgPrice has reversed off its resistance where we expect to see a further drop.

Entry: 0.7046

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance

Stop Loss : 0.7065

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.7008

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support

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USD/JPY approaching support, possible bounce!

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Price is reaching support at 107.875, a bounce could occur!

Entry :107.875

Why it's good :

78.6% Fibonacci retracement

61.8% Fibonacci extension

Horizontal overlap support

Take Profit : 108.592

Why it's good :

horizontal pullback resistance

61.8% Fibonacci retracement

100% Fibonacci extension

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 16, 2019

EUR/USD

The euro fell by 12 points on Monday, up to support on the daily chart of the balance line. This morning, the opening session has already occurred below this line. For a signal for a medium-term price decline, now you need to go below the MACD line, below the 1.1245 mark. Nevertheless, you should be careful - the price channel will be the first support on the way to decline, and at the point of coincidence with the Fibonacci level 100.0% (1.1215), then the signal level of 1.1193 is connected, and the overcoming of which opens the nearest target of 1.1155 – the Fibonacci level of 110.0%. Next Fibonacci 123.6% on the price of 1.1076.

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On the four-hour chart, the price formed the second accumulation zone of 1.1245-1.1283, almost exactly corresponding to the range and length of July 2-4. The lower limit of consolidation (1.1245) coincides with the MACD lines on the four-hour and daily charts. This circumstance reinforces the importance of this support.

The risk of a rising movement will increase after the price leaves the current consolidation upwards.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on July 16, 2019

GBP/USD

On the daily scale, the scenario we expected yesterday was realized - the Marlin oscillator signal line turned down from the boundary with the growth area. The price did not even reach the balance line, which may indicate the strength of the downward trend. Formally, the price on the way to the target level of 1.2296 already holds nothing. But the price still has to create conditions for a decrease on a smaller scale chart.

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At the moment, the price of H4 lies on the balance and MACD lines, the price needs to gain a foothold under them and go below the signal level of 1.2480 - the low of July 5, after which the path to 1.2296 will be opened. The Marlin oscillator signal line is already in the decreasing trend zone.

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Today's data on the US economy can help the price in overcoming the supports; the forecast for retail sales for June is 0.1%, a growth forecast of 0.1% is also expected for industrial production, while the forecast for inventories for May is 0.4%.

However, until the price has formed a signal to further decrease, the probability of growth to 1.2665, after preliminary overcoming the signal level of 1.2604, remains. This growth may be due to the rough, but having a place to be double convergence on the daily chart.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on July 16

Forecast for July 16:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1363, 1.1336, 1.1317, 1.1291, 1.1257, 1.1240, 1.1218, 1.1191 and 1.1155. Here, the price forms the ascending structure of July 9. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown at level 1.1291. In this case, the goal is 1.1317. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, is in the corridor 1.1317 - 1.1336. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 1.1363, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1.1257 - 1.1240. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1218. This level is a key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will allow to count on the movement to the level 1.1191.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1291 Take profit: 1.1317

Buy 1.1336 Take profit: 1.1360

Sell: 1.1256 Take profit: 1.1241

Sell: 1.1238 Take profit: 1.1218

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2652, 1.2633, 1.2603, 1.2580, 1.2514, 1.2480 and 1.2438. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure of July 10. Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 1.2580 - 1.2603. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2633. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 1.2652, after reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 1.2514 - 1.2480. Hence, there is a high probability of a reversal to the top. The breakdown level of 1.2480 will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the potential target is 1.2438.

The main trend - the rising structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2580 Take profit: 1.2602

Buy: 1.2604 Take profit: 1.2633

Sell: 1.2512 Take profit: 1.2482

Sell: 1.2478 Take profit: 1.2440

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9952, 0.9902, 0.9881, 0.9841, 0.9820, 0.9797 and 0.9779. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 9. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 0.9841. In this case, the goal is 0.9820. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to count on the movement to 0.9797. There is a potential value for the downward trend, while we consider the level of 0.9779. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Consolidated movement is possible in the corridor 0.9881 - 0.9902. We expect the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend - the formation of a downward structure of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9881 Take profit: 0.9902

Buy : 0.9910 Take profit: 0.9950

Sell: 0.9840 Take profit: 0.9822

Sell: 0.9818 Take profit: 0.9797

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.99, 108.70, 108.42, 108.26, 107.78, 107.58, 107.41, 106.98 and 106.68. Here, we are following the downward structure of July 10. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown 107.78. Here, the goal is 107.58. Price consolidation is near this level. A passage at the price of the noise range 107.58 - 107.41 will lead to the development of a pronounced motion. In this case, the goal is 106.98. For the potential value to the bottom, we consider the level of 106.68. And from which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 108.26 - 108.42. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 108.70. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend: the formation of a downward structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.26 Take profit: 108.40

Buy : 108.43 Take profit: 108.70

Sell: 107.78 Take profit: 107.58

Sell: 107.40 Take profit: 107.00

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3105, 1.3090, 1.3063, 1.3048, 1.3016, 1.3001, 1.2964 and 1.2937. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 9. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3016 - 1.3001. In this case, the target is 1.2964. For the potential value to the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2937. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 1.3048 - 1.3063. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.3090. The range 1.3090 - 1.3105 is a key support for the downward structure of July 9.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3048 Take profit: 1.3062

Buy : 1.3065 Take profit: 1.3090

Sell: 1.3000 Take profit: 1.2965

Sell: 1.2962 Take profit: 1.2938

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7111, 0.7091, 0.7063, 0.7050, 0.7028, 0.7013 and 0.6991. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of July 10. Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 0.7050 - 0.7063. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 0.7091. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7111, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 0.7028 - 0.7013. Breaking the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6991. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend - the rising structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7050 Take profit: 0.7063

Buy: 0.7065 Take profit: 0.7090

Sell : 0.7027 Take profit : 0.7015

Sell: 0.7011 Take profit: 0.6993

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.28, 121.89, 121.67, 121.41, 121.22, 120.92 and 120.48. Here, the price entered an equilibrium state: a mid-term descending structure of July 1. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after passing by the price of the noise range 121.41 - 121.22 In this case, the goal is 120.92. There is consolidation near this level. For the potential value to the bottom, we consider the level of 120.48. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Consolidated movement is possible in the corridor 121.89 - 122.28. Key support for the downward structure is at level 122.28. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the mid-term descending structure of July 1, the formation of potential for the bottom of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.94 Take profit: 122.28

Sell: 121.22 Take profit: 120.94

Sell: 120.90 Take profit: 120.50

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 135.81, 135.46, 135.23, 134.90, 134.70, 134.44 and 134.13. Here, the next targets for the downward movement are determined from the local structure on July 9. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 134.90 - 134.70. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the movement to the level of 134.44. Consolidation is near this level. For the potential value to the bottom, we consider the level 134.13. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown at level 134.40.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 135.23 - 135.46. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 135.81. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 1, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 135.23 Take profit: 135.44

Buy: 135.48 Take profit: 135.80

Sell: 134.90 Take profit: 134.70

Sell: 134.68 Take profit: 134.45

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The ECB and the Fed are going to cut rates, while the Bank of England is not yet ready for this, and this could support the

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The single European currency fails to demonstrate a steady upward trend, despite expectations that the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) will cut interest rates for the first time in ten years.

Derivatives market expects the US central bank to lower the rate in July and September. This is a negative point for the dollar. Why then the euro can not benefit from this?

The fact is that the ECB also does not exclude the possibility of easing monetary policy to stimulate the European economy and inflation in the region.

UBS analysts believe that the regulator will lower the deposit rate twice before the end of this year.

"Most likely, this will happen in September and December, and each time the step size will be 10 basis points. In addition, the ECB may resort to QE, if the outlook for the economy and inflation in the eurozone worsens, downside risks associated with trade policy and geopolitical uncertainty materialize, or the Fed has a weaker monetary policy than expected. We think that at the meeting next week, the ECB will make adjustments to its statements of intent to prepare the markets for the coming changes," they noted.

Thus, it turns into a "vicious circle": both the American and European central banks want to cut rates and lower the rate of their currency. Who will lose: euro or dollar? It is possible that this week will be a draw and the next winner will be the greenback.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England, it seems, is not yet ready to lower interest rates. Moreover, some members of the BoE Monetary Policy Committee are considering the possibility of raising rates in the fall, if after Brexit there is a high increase in consumer prices.

According to a number of analysts, since the ECB and the Fed are setting investors to lower rates, the pound can show good growth in quotes.

"The pound is already trading at crisis levels and will resist further decline. High inflation expectations and inflation, which is close to the Bank of England target, should for the time being keep the central bank from deciding to soften the policy," say Nomura analysts.

"Great Britain's exit from the EU without a deal is a risk, and it will certainly lead to the formation of new lows in sterling, but this will happen only in a few months, and we don't expect the market to lay a high premium for a hard Brexit until Parliament returns to work in September after the summer break," they added.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Fed rate cut is not due to Trump's whim

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The president of the United States accuses China and the European Union with currency manipulations. At the same time, the euro and the yuan are more likely to be victims of trade conflicts than instruments. China's GDP growth in the second quarter was confirmed, as predicted. This is the lowest value for the last 27 years. The fiscal stimulus of $291 billion is clearly not enough for the economy to develop as the Chinese authorities plan. Disagreements with the US has hurt the country's foreign trade. As a result, shipments of Chinese products to the US fell by 7.8% in June, while imports fell by 31% in annual terms. The surplus, as a result, expanded to a 7-month high. The development of events clearly does not correspond to the previously written scenario in Washington.

The Fed will cut rates this month, including due to the risks of a slowdown in the country's economy. The head of the regulator made it clear that this would be a purely preventive measure. The yield curve, which predicted all recessions over the past 50 years, was at -1.6 bp on Friday, July 12, while it was at -19 bp a week earlier. This is the most dramatic indicator jump during the reign of Donald Trump. Financial markets are sensitive to a change in the position of the Fed, but it is not yet clear how much the regulator is ready to ease policy. There are suggestions that the criticism of the White House's host is only a background, and the central bank is actually led by investors.

Most of the surveyed economists believe that the negative and pressure towards the Fed does not affect the central bank's outlook. It's independence is a bit undermined and that's all. During Powell's speech to Congress, lawmakers urged him not to take into account the recommendations and threats from the White House, promising protection if necessary.

The fear is not Donald Trump, but financial markets. At the end of last year, it was they who signaled the need for a pause in the process of normalizing monetary policy. At the beginning of this year, the Fed leadership announced the beginning of a period implying patience. Then investors began to unwind the topic of rate cuts, and Powell seems to meet their expectations. Now the market is asking for three rounds of policy easing. The question is, will it come to life?

Authoritative forecaster Bloomberg - Eurobank Cyprus - believes that the dollar index will be stable until the end of the summer. At the same time, expectations of lowering the rate in September and later will allow "euro bulls" to reach $1.17 by the end of the year. While his forecast comes true at 100%. The EUR/USD quotes are firmly stuck in the trading range of $1.12–1.14.

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The euro cannot benefit from a negative policy easing for the dollar. The fact is that the ECB meeting will be held next week on July 25, where the regulator may also announce the need to reduce rates. The pressure is on both currencies at the same time, so in the long run a combat draw.

However, some strategists expect the main pair to grow to the level of $1.14 this week. To do this, it will need to overcome the high at $ 1.1285.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: a sluggish flat in anticipation of ZEW reports and US retail sales data

At the beginning of the trading week, the euro-dollar pair continued a correctional growth after the release of fairly good data from China. However, during the day, EUR/USD bulls could not strengthen the upward impulse, as a result of which bears have then intercepted the initiative on the pair. This has contributed to the disappointing rhetoric of European officials against the background of strong data from the United States. Trump's threats to devalue the US currency have so far been sidelined, since all the information on this matter is in the nature of unverified rumors. In addition, according to some analysts, the US president will not be in a hurry with actions until the July Fed meeting, at which the regulator is likely to lower the interest rate.

Therefore, traders of the EUR/USD pair live today - and the overall results of Monday are clearly not in favor of the single currency. Thus, according to the German Minister of Economy Peter Altmeier, the key economic indicators suggest that in the second quarter of this year, the growth of the country's GDP will slow down significantly. This is indicated by the low growth of the service sector, as well as a slowdown in industrial activity. External demand is declining, and with a high degree of probability this trend will only gain momentum at the expense of a hard Brexit and the ongoing trade war between the US and China.

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As is known, Germany is the "locomotive" of the European economy; therefore, such forecasts increase the likelihood of monetary policy easing by the European Central Bank. Here it is worth recalling that representatives of the ECB more and more often warn the market about such intentions. In particular, ECB member Benoit Coeure, who four years ago was one of the initiators of the launch of the stimulating program, said last week that the regulator could resume QE in the near future, if the situation in the eurozone economy demands it.

A similar position was voiced by ECB chief economist Philip Lane, whom the press already calls not only the central bank's chief economist but also the "chief adviser" to Mario Draghi's successor Christina Lagarde. According to many analysts, Lagarde will be guided precisely by his recommendations (at least for the first time), so the likelihood of mitigation of monetary policy conditions is growing due to this factor. Lane once again reiterated that the European regulator needs to pursue an accommodative policy in order to return inflation indicators to the targets, and the ECB "has enough tools" for this.

In the light of such rhetoric, currency strategists of the main European banks warn that the ECB can not only renew QE in the fall, but also lower the interest rate. In particular, according to analysts of the largest French bank Societe Generale, the regulator in September will cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points and announce the beginning of a stimulating program that will provide for a monthly purchase of assets in the amount of 40 billion euros. At the July meeting, according to analysts, the regulator widely announces easing of monetary policy. Therefore, the main reaction of the market regarding these steps will be in July, not in September.

However, the euro is already acting out such intentions of the ECB, being under background pressure. The only question is how aggressive the regulator's steps to mitigate monetary policy will be. Almost no one doubts that the ECB will follow this path.

That is why the potential for corrective growth of the EUR/USD pair was initially limited. Bulls could not take advantage of the temporary weakness of the dollar (which was due to rumors about Trump's intentions to devalue the currency through interventions) and go to the 13th figure. The pair touched the first resistance level of 1.1290 (the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart) and headed towards the middle of the 12th figure. The formal reason for the downward pullback was published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire State Manufacturing Index. In June, the indicator fell to a negative area (for the first time in 3.5 years), which alarmed dollar bulls. But today the index showed a positive trend, although it remained at relatively low values (4.3 points). The dollar reacted positively to this release, despite the fact that the employment component has remained at the lowest values since the fall of 2016.

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Thus, the dovish intentions of the ECB exert background pressure on the euro, and this fact is a difficult "anchor" for the EUR/USD pair. The weight of this burden may intensify tomorrow, if the sentiment index in the business environment from the ZEW Institute (in Germany and in the whole of the eurozone) goes even deeper into the negative area. Given the high likelihood of a hard Brexit, the pessimism of the European business sphere will most likely grow and exponentially, will place additional pressure on the euro. In turn, the dollar will focus on retail sales tomorrow. This indicator may show negative dynamics, especially without car sales.

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In other words, if political factors do not mix the cards of the fundamental picture, then weak US data will partially compensate for weak European indicators, especially in the light of the dovish intentions of both the ECB and the Fed. All this will lead to the fact that the pair will fluctuate in the price range with an upper ceiling of 1.1300 (Kijun-sen line on D1) and a lower limit of 1.1225 (the upper and lower boundaries of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart coincide at this price point). If the bears push the lower limit, the next support level will be the mark of 1.1160 - this is the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same timeframe.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com