Trading plan for EUR/USD for October 14, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair is comfortable out into the Buy Zone, breaking above its resistance trend line as seen here. It is trading around 1.1030 levels at this point in writing, looking to push through 1.1075. Earlier, the pair has formed a strong support at 1.0940 and is expected to stay above that until resistance at 1.1110 is taken out. Please note that a break above 1.1110 would confirm that EUR/USD is hearing north toward 1.1450 levels at least, and that a meaningful low is already in place at 1.0879. Trading point of view, it is still a safe strategy to hold long positions while risk could be defined at 1.0879 levels respectively. Please take profits ahead of 1.1110 levels, since a meaningful retracement can be expected after that. We expect EUR/USD to trade through 1.1450 levels in the coming weeks.

Trading plan:

Remain long against 1.0879, targeting 1.1110 at least,

Good luck!

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Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for October 14. It will be difficult for the pound to continue rising this week.

EUR / USD

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Friday, October 11, ended for the EUR / USD pair with an increase of 30 basis points. Thus, the downward trend section is still considered completed. Moreover, the instrument is supposedly located within the framework of building the first wave as part of a new upward trend section. If this assumption is correct, then the increase in quotations will continue within the framework of the expected wave a with targets located near the level of 38.2% Fibonacci.

Fundamental component:

The fundamental background for the EUR / USD pair remains rather uncertain now. On the one hand, there are no positive economic reports from the Eurozone, on the other hand, not everything is good right now in America, starting from the Congress investigation into Trump's activities, which could lead to impeachment or, at least, cast a shadow over the US president, who doesn't allow himself to win the race against Joe Biden in 2020, ending with a trade war with China, which, although slowly moving towards the signing of a trade agreement, is still very far from this moment. On Monday, the European Union will release a report on industrial production and markets expect to see a figure of -2.5% y / y, which will indicate a serious decline in the industry. Although, given the weakest indicators of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Eurozone, such a reduction in industrial production is not surprising. Thus, today, the wave a can complete its construction.

Purchase goals:

1.1083 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.1145 - 50.0% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.0879 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair is supposedly continuing to build a new upward set of waves. At the same time, the news background can "turn" the instrument down at any time, but for now, I still expect a moderate increase in quotes with targets located near the levels of 1.1083 and 1.1145. An unsuccessful attempt to break the level of 1.1083 may lead to a departure of quotes from the reached highs and the construction of wave b.

GBP / USD

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On October 11, the GBP / USD pair gained another 205 basis points, thus, transforming the existing wave markings. At the moment, the wave pattern involves the construction of a 3-wave plot of the trend, which can already be completed, given the too fast growth of the pound over the past two days. Thus, the proposed wave C will either get too long or shortened. A lot in this matter will depend on the news background, as there will be plenty of events this week that will affect the dynamics and direction of the pound-dollar instrument.

Fundamental component:

While the pound has beaten volatility records, markets continue to think about how the EU summit will end this week. At the end of last week, against the background of information that seems to increase the likelihood of a deal between London and Brussels, the British currency has grown very much. Now, the progress issued to it must be confirmed. Boris Johnson will have to confirm them, since he is the main distributor of information about the positive outcome of negotiations between the EU and Britain. This week, either something that, perhaps, no one has long believed in, will be confirmed. The parties will come to an agreement, or something will happen, the probability of which is 90%, is Brexit's next transfer. By the way, even if Johnson makes an agreement with the European Union, it's necessary that the UK Parliament approves the deal later, and we all know how much the British deputies are picky and like to reject the proposals of the Prime Ministers. If the deal fails, and Brexit is rescheduled, such a news background will be favorable for the US currency and the construction of a new bearish section of the trend. Hard Brexit - also opens the way for the instrument to go down.

Sales goals:

1.2191 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2666 - 76.4% Fibonacci

1.2817 - 100.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound / dollar instrument has transformed the wave markings. Thus, now, I can recommend new purchases of the instrument in case of a successful attempt to break through the 76.4% Fibonacci level, which will indicate the readiness of the markets for a new pound increase. However, I also indicate that the current levels are very high for the pound, and if Brexit does not decide in favor of the UK this week, then there is a high probability of building a new downward trend. Accordingly, current levels look very attractive for sales.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 14, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price will move down, with the first target at 1.2586 - a pullback level of 23.6% (red dashed line). If this level is reached, there will be a continuation of the lower movement to the pullback level of 38.2% - 1.2512 (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price may begin to roll back down.

The first intermediate lower target at 1.2586 is a pullback level of 23.6% (red dashed line).

In case of reaching the intermediate target, the continuation of the lower movement to the pullback level of 38.2% - 1.2512 (red dotted line) is possible.

An unlikely scenario is an upward movement with the target upper fractal - 1.2707 (red dashed line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 14, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price will move down, with the first target at 1.2586 - a pullback level of 23.6% (red dashed line). If this level is reached, there will be a continuation of the lower movement to the pullback level of 38.2% - 1.2512 (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, an upward movement may continue.

The upper target of 1.1064 is the upper fractal (yellow dashed line).

An unlikely scenario - from the level of 1.1031 moving down to the target of 1.0994 - a pullback level of 38.2% (yellow dashed line).

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 14/10/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The Malaysian Ministry of Finance says that both domestic and global cryptocurrency adoption rates are low, despite the considerable attention the sector has received. However, in the recently published "Economic Outlook 2020" report, the ministry noted that several prominent companies from key sectors of the economy have taken steps to adopt digital currencies, according to financial media:

"Although the impact of these projects was not even more noticeable, digital assets may appear as part of the wider economy or go as a novelty, depending on the result of their use," the report says.

The ministry called on the global authorities to formulate a legal framework to solve problems related to digital assets, noting that close monitoring of the sector's development is necessary.

The report summarizes the work done to date by the national financial supervisory authorities, including the amendment to Bank Negara Malaysia anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing provisions in February 2018 to take into account the requirements for digital asset service providers.

In January 2019, the regulation on capital markets and services in Malaysia aimed at regulating both digital assets and exchange platforms entered into force. The order states that all digital assets offered as a form of investment or used as a fundraising method are classified as domestic securities.

Technical market overview:

After a failed attempt the rally above the level of 38% Fibonacci retracement at $8,671, the BTC/USD pair has reversed towards the technical support located at the level of $8,048. This level is around the middle of the horizontal trading range located between the level of $8,760 - $7,700, so the price in now back to the range again. The momentum is flat and so is the price action at the beginning of the new trading week as the global investors await a clear breakout in either direction. Please notice the larger timeframe trend remains bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,781

WR2 - $9,248

WR1 - $8,711

Weekly Pivot - $8,198

WS1 - $7,675

WS2 - $7,127

WS3 - $6,590

Trading recommendations:

Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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EUR/USD. The results of the US-China talks: is there any reason for optimism?

The results of last week made it possible for the euro-dollar pair to gain a foothold in the 10th figure. US-China negotiations, on the whole, ended on a major note (contrary to many expectations of the opposite nature), and the likelihood of the implementation of a "hard" Brexit significantly decreased, in anticipation of a key EU summit. However, as it usually happens, the wave of optimism is followed by a wave of consolidation, therefore, the Asian trading session on Monday ended not in favor of the euro. The couple lay in a drift, waiting for the next news drivers.

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It is worth noting that both the Brexit issue and the issue of prospects for US-China relations have their own "pitfalls" that spoil the overall positive picture. For example, on the one hand, Washington decided not to raise duties on Chinese goods by $250 billion, which this Tuesday was supposed to grow from 25% to 30%. But on the other hand, the issue of raising 15 percent "December duties" worth $156 billion remained hanging in the air - according to US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, the White House has not yet made a final decision regarding the fate of these duties. In addition, the United States did not declare an amnesty in other restrictive areas - starting from Huawei, ending with sanctions lists against several dozen Chinese companies.

Nothing is known at all about counter steps from China. Only from the words of Donald Trump do we know that China decided to purchase agricultural products from the US for $40 billion, significantly increasing the volume of purchases (for example, last year, the Chinese purchased $20 billion from American farmers). This is really positive news for the US: but only China has not officially confirmed such intentions. The state-owned media in China are silent about this, just like official sources are silent. On the whole, Beijing has not yet commented on the results of the past meeting, without confirming or refuting reports of the agreements reached.

In other words, the talk that "from day to day" Beijing and Washington will sign a historic deal is extremely premature. Moreover, insider information began to arrive on the market, which indicates continuing differences. In particular, according to the sources of the American press, China at the talks said that the volume of purchases of agricultural products should, firstly, meet WTO standards, and secondly, meet the needs of Chinese importers, and not be artificially regulated, to please Washington. In addition, according to preliminary data, Beijing refused to reduce the volume of purchases of relevant products from other countries in favor of the United States. Given this position, it is not at all surprising that China is in no hurry to officially confirm Trump's words.

In general, the completed round of negotiations ended on a major note, in accordance with the principle where "the absence of bad results is a good result." However, it is worth noting that the most controversial and complex issues will be discussed at the second stage of negotiations, which is expected in November. It is, in particular, about protecting the intellectual property of US companies, subsidizing the industrial sphere of China and ending the forced transfer of technology to China. As part of the second stage of the dialogue, Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet, and according to the results of the third stage (in the first half of next year), the conclusion of a "historical deal" is expected.

But according to a number of experts, now it is impossible to speak with confidence about any temporary guidelines. At the moment, China is interested in negotiations lasting as long as possible: following this tactic, Beijing, on the one hand, "freezes" the conflict, avoiding new duties, and on the other hand, delaying the conclusion of the deal, given the upcoming presidential US elections. Therefore, the results of the first stage of the negotiations are "cosmetic" in nature: the parties, in fact, did not discuss the most difficult issues, which became a stumbling block in previous attempts to conclude an agreement. Beijing and Washington diverged in the corners of the ring, and there are no clear winners (however, like losers) in this meeting.

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The US currency reacted to the events of the past week with cautious optimism. On Monday, the dollar index marginally rose, reflecting the general phlegm of the market. In addition, Columbus Day is celebrated in the United States today, so US trading floors will be closed. Now the focus will be on the comments of representatives of the Federal Reserve and the ECB, who should assess the situation in the context of the prospects for monetary policy. In my opinion, none of them will change their position on this issue: the split of opinions will continue both among the members of the European regulator and the American one. China and the United States were able to prevent a new round of trade war (and this is a good thing), but at the same time made it clear that the negotiation process would go on for many months (which is an absolute negative).

From a technical point of view, the bulls of the EUR/USD pair need to stay above 1.0990 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which coincides with the Kijun-sen line on the D1 timeframe). Otherwise, the bears will again seize the initiative, sending the price to the bottom of the 9th figure. To confirm further corrective growth, traders need to overcome the mark of 1.1075 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the same time frame). On Friday, the bulls of the pair did not succeed in impulsively breaking through this resistance level, therefore, in this case, buyers need a powerful informational occasion. In the conditions of market silence, the pair is likely to trade within the flat band of 1,0990-1,1075.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on October 14. The pound will continue to grow as the likelihood of reaching an agreement

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The pound continued to grow on Friday, which began on Thursday, after a meeting of the prime ministers of Ireland and the UK. EU officials said that a Brexit deal was possible, and asked Boris Johnson to provide details of the plan, which strengthened the British pound. At the moment, it is best to consider new long positions after a small downward correction to the support area of 1.2564 and 1.2533. The main target of the bulls will be the resistance 1.2639 and 1.2673, where I recommend taking profit. However, it is worth remembering that it is Columbus Day today in the United States, which will significantly reduce market volatility. Any positive news regarding the Brexit deal will only fuel interest in the pound.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Open short positions in the pound in the current conditions would not be the right decision, as any Brexit news could trigger a new wave of growth. Only unsuccessful consolidation and the formation of a false breakdown in the morning in the resistance area of 1.2673 will be a signal to sell GBP/USD with the short-term goal of falling to the support area of 1.2564, where I recommend taking profits. When breaking through the high of last week, it is best to consider new short positions for a rebound from resistance at 1.2741 and 1.2781.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the maintenance of a bullish trend.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound falls, the lower boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.2564 will provide support. Growth will be limited by the upper level at 1.2705.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 14/10/2019

Technical market overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of 1.2705 (the level of 200 MA on the daily timeframe chart) after the impressive bounce from the level of 1.2206 was made. This 500 pips move is backed by strong and positive momentum and despite the overbought market conditions, there is still a chance for another leg up towards the level of 1.2783. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.2580 - 1.2561 zone, so as long as the price is trading above this zone, the chances for another leg up are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3395

WR2 - 1.3032

WR1 - 1.2877

Weekly Pivot - 1.2532

WS1 - 1.2380

WS2 - 1.2032

WS3 - 1.1859

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2907 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 14/10/2019

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair has broken through the technical resistance located at the level of 1.0999 and made a new local high at the level of 1.1062. The momentum is still strong and positive, so there is still a chance for another upwards move towards the next key technical resistance zone located between the levels of 1.1075 - 1. 1091 and even a possibility of an attack on the swing high at 1.1109. The immediate support is located at the level of 1.1024. Please remember, that the higher timeframe trend is still bearish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1211

WR2 - 1.1133

WR1 - 1.1093

Weekly Pivot - 1.1014

WS1 - 1.0971

WS2 - 1.0893

WS3 - 1.0849

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0926 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on October 14. Further growth of the euro is in question, and the bears will seek

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Today is Columbus Day in the United States, so volatility will be very low due to the holiday. The movement can only happen after the release of data on the volume of industrial production in the eurozone. With weak data, it is best to open long positions in EUR/USD after a downward correction to support 1.1008, or immediately to rebound from a larger low of 1.0975. However, the main task of the bulls will be to return to resistance at 1.1033, above which the pair will try to update last week's highs in the area of 1.1061, where I recommend taking profits. However, due to the holiday break in many markets, it is quite possible that trading will be conducted around the level of 1.1033.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The main task of the bears will be the return of EUR/USD to the support of 1.1008 and the breakdown of this level, which will provide the euro with new pressure that can push it to a low of 1.0975, where I recommend taking profits. Failure to consolidate above resistance at 1.1033, after the release of a weak report on industrial production in the eurozone, will also be a kind of signal to sell EUR/USD. Short positions can be opened immediately on the rebound from a high of 1.1061, however, the direction in the pair will depend on further negotiations between the United States and China.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1015 will lead to increased pressure on the euro. Growth will be limited by the upper level at 1.1055.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for October 14 - 2019

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GBP/JPY has accelerated higher and should continue its upside progress after a minor correction towards 135.15 from where renewed upside pressure is expected for a rally towards 139.15 and 144.98 as the next upside targets.

In the longer term, the minimum target is seen at 160.12 but it could easily extend much higher.

R3: 138.44

R2: 137.87

R1: 137.23

Pivot: 136.73

S1: 136.22

S2: 135.65

S3: 135.15

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 131.25 and we will raise our stop to 133.50

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 14 - 2019

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EUR/JPY is currently correcting after its rally seen on Friday. This correction will likely see its limit near 119.01 for the next move higher towards the short-term target at 121.93.

In the longer-term, we expected EUR/JPY to move much higher as the huge 11 years triangle completed with the test of 115.87 and a new mulity year rally should be expected. If wave [C], which is now developing, becomes equal in length to wave [A] then the ideal target for wave [C] is seen at 196.88.

For now, we should be looking for support near 119.01 for the next rally higher towards 121.93.

R3: 120.55

R2: 119.96

R1: 119.72

Pivot: 119.39

S1: 119.01

S2: 118.65

S3: 118.45

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 and we will move our stop higher to 118.00.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, October 14,2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data such as Industrial Production m/m and German WPI m/m will be released. Today the US will not publish any economic data. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1083.Strong Resistance:1.1077. Original Resistance: 1.1066. Inner Sell Area: 1.1055.Target Inner Area: 1.1029. Inner Buy Area: 1.1003. Original Support: 1.0992. Strong Support: 1.0981. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0975. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, October 14,2019

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Today Japan and the US will not release any economic data. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:Resistance. 3:108.83.Resistance. 2:108.62. Resistance. 1:108.41. Support. 1:108.14. Support. 2:107.93. Support. 3:107.72. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones AUDUSD 10/14/19

Last Friday's test of the weekly control zone 0.6904-0.6792 made it possible to fix part of the profit on a previously open long position. Further growth is more likely, but purchases from current levels cannot be called profitable, since a repeated test of the resistance zone may cause an increase in supply again.

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Work in the upward direction is a priority, therefore, the pattern of "false breakdown" on a weekly control zone must be perceived as correction. Moreover, work in the correction involves quick fixation of profit at the first levels of support.

The reversal model will become relevant if the closing of today's US session occurs below the Weekly Control Zone 1/4 0.6779-0.6775. This will allow considering corrective sales to WCZ 1/2 0.6745-0.6738. The test of which will determine the further priority for the second half of the month.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ- weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 14, 2019

EUR/USD

On Friday, the euro added another 30 points to the growth of the past week, stopping at the resistance of the MACD line of the daily scale. The peak of the day did not hit the Fibonacci level of 123.6%, but this is not a prerequisite for a potential reversal - the resistance range of the second half of September has been reached. In an alternative scenario, a price exit above 123.6% (1.1074) will extend growth to the price channel line to the price of 1.1126. Further, growth to the Fibonacci level of 100.0% is possible - to the resistance of the first half of August.

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On the four-hour chart, the expected divergence on the Marlin oscillator has almost formed. Departure of the price under the local support range of 1.0985-1.1000 will launch a new wave of decline with the immediate target of 1.0926, which acts as a signal level to decrease to 1.0845 - the Fibonacci level of 161.8%.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on October 14, 2019

GBP/USD

The restless pound on Friday repeated the success of Thursday, adding 205 points by the end of the day. On the daily chart, growth reached a Fibonacci level of 138.2%. The price reached strong record levels of the lows of August and October 2018 and the powerful consolidation zone of June 2019. From this resistance zone, we expect a reversal of at least a correction to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.2548, or lower, to support the trend line of the price channel at 1.2480, or a full reversal on the negative development of the Brexit epic to the Fibonacci level of 271.0% at the price of 1.1986.

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The growth scenario (after correction) will develop with a new force after the price goes above the Fibonacci levels of 123.6% (1.2744) and 110.0% (1.2815), which opens the first target at 1.2976. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is turning down, but in the current situation this reversal is not indicative, the indicator will come into play when the signal line goes into the negative zone.

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The pound is completely dependent on political events, and technical subjects will be only a visible consequence of the Brexit story. At the moment, the most likely relations between England and the EU after Brexit seem to be: a free trade agreement on the basis of quotas, trade according to the general rules of the WTO, a customs union, a single market without a customs union. The EU summit will begin on Thursday, at which this issue will be resolved.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on October 14, 2019

USD/JPY

Last Friday, the dollar growth exceeded the peaks of October 1 and September 18, also breaking the resistance of the red line of the price channel. The Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone, the immediate target of the pair is now the resistance of the upper line at 108.97. Overcoming the first goal opens the second at a price of 109.70 - the line of the growing green price channel.

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On the four-hour chart, the leading indicator Marlin took on a leading role - it follows the price, which is a sign of the continuation of the current trend. That is the growth of the pair.

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Control zones Bitcoin 10/14/19

During the third day, bitcoin is trading below the balance level. This makes it possible to search for a pattern to sell. On Friday, a "false breakout" pattern was formed, which allowed us to enter a short position. Sales, in turn, is possible until the monthly minimum is updated, after which a partial fixation and transfer of the remaining part to breakeven will be required.

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In the middle of last week, the "absorption" pattern was formed at the daily level; and thus, the minimum of this day can be considered decisive for the further construction of trading models.

An alternative model will be developed in case that Bitcoin will be rebuilt above the level of balance. The probability of this event today is 30%, which makes this model auxiliary. On the other hand, purchases from the current levels are not profitable.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for October 14

Forecast for October 4:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1091, 1.1069, 1.1058, 1.1039, 1.1000, 1.0986, 1.0966 and 1.0939. Here, we continue to consider the local ascending structure of October 8 as a reference. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1039. In this case, the target is 1.1058. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1058 - 1.1069. We consider the level of 1.1091 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 1.1000 - 1.0986. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.0966. This level is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward movement. In this case, the target is 1.0939.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure from October 1, the local structure from October 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1040 Take profit: 1.1058

Buy 1.1070 Take profit: 1.1090

Sell: 1.1000 Take profit: 1.0987

Sell: 1.0984 Take profit: 1.0966

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2906, 1.2850, 1.2748, 1.2678, 1.2573, 1.2525 and 1.2447. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 9. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2678. In this case, the target is 1.2748. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.2750 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the level of 1.2850. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2906. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2573 - 1.2525. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2447. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2678 Take profit: 1.2744

Buy: 1.2750 Take profit: 1.2850

Sell: 1.2573 Take profit: 1.2527

Sell: 1.2523 Take profit: 1.2450

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0054, 1.0033, 1.0018, 0.9999, 0.9950, 0.9934, 0.9892 and 0.9872. Here, the price registered a small potential for the top of October 10. The development of this structure is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9999. In this case, the target is -1.0018. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.0018 - 1.0033. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.0054. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 0.9950 - 0.9934. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the development of a downward structure from October 3. In this case, the first goal is 0.9892.

The main trend is the descending structure of October 3, the formation of potential for the top of October 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9999 Take profit: 1.0018

Buy : 1.0035 Take profit: 1.0054

Sell: 0.9950 Take profit: 0.9936

Sell: 0.9931 Take profit: 0.9894

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.66, 109.33, 108.90, 108.72, 108.24, 108.02 and 107.67. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 4. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 108.72 - 108.90. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 109.33. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 109.66. Upon reaching this level, we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 108.24 - 108.02. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.67. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend: the upward cycle of October 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.90 Take profit: 109.30

Buy : 109.34 Take profit: 109.65

Sell: 108.24 Take profit: 108.03

Sell: 108.00 Take profit: 107.70

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3251, 1.3223, 1.3209, 1.3177, 1.3158, 1.3142 and 1.3107. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of October 10. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3177. In this case, the target is 1.3158. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3158 - 1.3142. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3107. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3140.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3209 - 1.3223. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3251. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of October 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3210 Take profit: 1.3220

Buy : 1.3226 Take profit: 1.3251

Sell: 1.3177 Take profit: 1.3158

Sell: 1.3140 Take profit: 1.3110

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6890, 0.6868, 0.6838, 0.6815, 0.6782, 0.6772 and 0.6751. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 2. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6815. In this case, the target is 0.6838. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.6840 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6868. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6890. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 0.6782 - 0.6772. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6751. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 2, the local structure for the top of October 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6815 Take profit: 0.6836

Buy: 0.6840 Take profit: 0.6866

Sell : 0.6770 Take profit : 0.6753

Sell: 0.6746 Take profit: 0.6710

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 120.80, 120.22, 119.93, 119.43, 119.16, 118.75 and 118.54. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 4. At the moment, the price is near the limit values and, mainly, we expect the movement to correction. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 119.93 - 120.22. The breakdown of the latter value will allow you to count on the movement to a potential target - 120.80, but we consider the movement to this level as unstable.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 119.43 - 119.16. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 118.75. The range 118.75 - 118.54 is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.95 Take profit: 120.20

Buy: 120.25 Take profit: 120.80

Sell: 119.40 Take profit: 119.16

Sell: 119.14 Take profit: 118.80

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 141.05. 140.17, 138.71, 137.79, 136.20, 135.47 and 134.55. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 8. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 137.80. In this case, the target is 138.71. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 138.71 will lead to the development of pronounced movement. In this case, the goal is 140.17. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 141.05. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 136.20 - 135.47. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 134.55. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure of October 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 137.80 Take profit: 138.70

Buy: 138.75 Take profit: 140.10

Sell: 136.20 Take profit: 135.50

Sell: 135.45 Take profit: 134.55

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Preview of the new week. The EU summit, Brexit, inflation in the European Union

It is safe to say that we can call the new week, the"Week of Great Britain." Most of the macroeconomic reports planned for the week will concern the GBP/USD pair. Most of the reports regarding the GBP/USD pair will come from the UK. In addition to economic data, it will be decided whether a new Brexit date will be postponed, whether Boris Johnson and the European government will be able to agree on a "deal" and whether the British Parliament will block a new deal if, by some miracle, Brussels and London succeed to reach consensus on all contentious issues in five days? Thus, the EUR/USD pair may feel relatively calm, just as it did the previous week, but the British pound is likely to break volatility records and very often change its direction if the news comes mixed. But consider all the data in more detail.

As we said, most statistics come from the UK. On Tuesday, this will be data on unemployment and changes in average wages for August, on Wednesday - the consumer price index for September, on Thursday - retail sales and the European Union summit on Brexit starts. In addition, the United States will receive information on retail sales for September (Wednesday). However, despite the importance of future reports, we believe that the main attention of traders will be focused on Brexit, on the EU summit and on any information from Boris Johnson, Donald Tusk, Jean-Claude Juncker, Michel Barnier, Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron. It is these leaders who most often speak out about the promotion of the Brexit negotiation process and have the greatest influence on it. Regarding the chances of fulfilling one or another Brexit option, we recommend that traders not try to guess the future. Brexit has repeatedly shown to all market participants that trying to predict how everything will end is an ungrateful affair. The growth of the pound was often associated with rumors and unfounded market expectations, which each time gave way to a stronger fall in the British currency. That is why the movement of the pound/dollar pair this week may well be illogical and consistent with the nature of the incoming news, and all macroeconomic reports can be completely ignored. Thus, the main principle will be the "principle of caution" when trading GBP/USD in the new week.

As for the EUR/USD pair, here from macroeconomic events we can note the report on the change in industrial production in August on Monday, the inflation report for September on Wednesday. The greatest interest, of course, will be caused by the consumer price index, which in recent months has fallen to absolute lows. A value below 1.0% will no longer be considered just low, but critical. And then it can be expected from the ECB and a new reduction in key rates, the quantitative stimulus program in the first months of its operation is unlikely to be changed, but in the future it can be expanded. And for the euro, these are all potential bearish factors. We still believe that in the confrontation with the dollar, a single European trump card is very small. And at the moment, we consider the main factor behind the growth of the euro a banal technical need to be adjusted from time to time. There is no positive news from the EU. Recently, everything is not good in the United States too, but America's economy is still stronger, macroeconomic indicators are higher, monetary policy is tougher. It is these factors that continue to play for the dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones USDJPY 10/14/19

Last month, the September high was tested, the weekly CZ and the zone of the average weekly run were reached. This could be a new starting point for building a medium-term model. If Monday's movement continues to keep prices below the September high, and by the close of the US session, a pattern of absorption of the daily level will form, then the downward movement will become a priority.

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Work in the downward direction will be medium-term in nature, therefore, as a goal, it is best to determine the monthly low.

To continue the growth, consolidating above the level of 108.49 at the US session will be required. If this happens, you will need to search for a buy pattern for any decrease in the pair. This model will allow you to go beyond the medium-term flat, which is formed in the second month.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones USDCHF 10/14/19

At the beginning of last week, the WCZ 1/2 test 0.9904-0.9892 took place. This made it possible to enter the purchase. Holding a long position is the main trading plan at the beginning of the current week. The first growth target is the October high. Its test will take part of the position, and the rest of the transfer to breakeven.

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Work in the upward direction has been going on for the third month, which indicates a long-term bull trend. The probability of a reversal of such an impulse in a short period of time is possible with a small probability, therefore it is more profitable to focus on updating monthly highs. The formation of a false breakdown pattern will be required to start a long-term bearish impulse, which will lead to an update of the monthly extremum.

An alternative model will be developed if the closure of one of the next US sessions occurs below the WCZ 1/2. This will indicate the need to exit a long position and find favorable prices for selling the instrument.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. October 13. Results of the week. Mario Draghi believes that EU countries should spend more

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 43p - 39p - 55p - 37p - 64p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 48p (average).

The European currency in the confrontation with the US dollar ended the week of October 7-11, relatively calmly, with an increase, but not too strong. In total, the bulls managed to push the pair away from two-year lows by almost 200 points. Yes, this is not too much, and the positions of the bulls still remain extremely precarious, but at least it did. Given the fundamental background of the European Union, such a strengthening is happiness for the euro currency.

On the last trading day of the week, by and large, there was one significant event - a speech by the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, who, recall, will resign on October 31. He stated that the governments of the EU member states are indirectly to blame for the unprecedented low level of key rates. According to Draghi, if the governments of the EU member states began to spend more, trying to support the economy, this would definitely lead to improved macroeconomic indicators, and the European regulator would not have to resort to its methods of stimulating the economy, one of which is just lowering rates. By and large, such statements by the head of the ECB are aimed at countries that still have a budget surplus, despite the stagnation of the EU economy. We are, of course, talking about the "locomotive" of the EU economy - Germany, as well as the Netherlands. However, the finance ministers of these countries refused Draghi's out of the blue "proposals" to spend more, which is quite logical.

However, Draghi's speech with insinuations about some EU countries remained only interesting news in itself, which had no effect on the movement of the EUR/USD currency pair. One gets the impression that the euro continues to grow only on technical factors, a small negative from the United States (where there are also enough problems), as well as by inertia. Considering the fact that the ECB may well lower rates again in October, as the vice-chairman of the regulator said recently, and now Draghi is hinting that the central bank has to stimulate the EU economy, the picture for the euro remains very unattractive. Not to mention inflation slowing down from month to month ...

In addition, on November 1, a quantitative easing program starts with a total amount of 2.6 trillion euros, almost half of the monetary committee opposed the resumption of which. It was at this point that many experts began to talk about a split in the ranks of the ECB. However, now this is not particularly important, since Christine Lagarde, who will take office on November 1, will have to establish communications with all members of the committee in any case.

Thus, in general, we have a situation where the euro seems to be growing, technical indicators signal an upward movement, volatility remains at an average level, but traders still do not leave doubts about the validity of the euro growth. All the same, there is a feeling that the euro can turn down at any moment and again begin to fall against the US currency. A trade war with the United States looms ahead of the European Union, macroeconomic indicators are falling, monetary policy is "ultra-soft", and the situation is not improving. Thus, we believe that while the Ichimoku indicator signals an upward movement, purchases can be considered. However, overcoming the critical line of Kijun-sen will be the first bell not just for a certain decline in the euro, but for a new downward trend. The only salvation for the euro in the near future is the third consecutive reduction in the Federal Reserve key rate.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move up. Thus, it is recommended that traders still buy the pair in small lots with goals of 1.1073 and 1.1084. So far, it is not recommended to return to sales, although they are more preferable from the point of view of a long-term fundamental background.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. October 13. Results of the day. Unprecedented growth of the pound based solely on rumors

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 81p - 49p - 107p - 93p - 264p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 119p (high).

From our point of view, what happened to the pound in the last two trading days of the week cannot be called anything other than "chaos". Even now, when all the media highlighted the "main reason" for the British currency's sharp growth - productive negotiations between the prime ministers of Great Britain and Ireland on the Brexit issue, after which both sides stated that a "deal" with the European Union is still possible, it remains to us unclear: Another rumor about a possible conclusion of the agreement caused the pound to grow by 450 points in two days? That is, as soon as Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar declare that it is still possible to agree on the Irish border, all traders rushed to buy the pound. But what about the position of the European Union, which, in fact, has not changed in any way? After all, the European Union has repeatedly stated that Johnson's proposals do not solve all the problems in the Brexit issue and an alternative to the back-stop mechanism on the Northern Irish border, as well as in questions of further life and Britain-EU relations after Brexit. What changed after Varadkar and Johnson agreed? Nothing. It should be noted that all the "first" persons of the EU, Junker, Tusk, Merkel, Macron, Barnier, have repeatedly stated that there is certainly a chance to come to an agreement with Great Britain, but it is small. Now, 5 days before the key EU summit, at which London and Brussels will either sign the agreement, or Johnson will ask to postpone Brexit to a later date, the rhetoric of these politicians has not changed at all. Donald Tusk, head of the European Council, said at a press conference in Nicosia on Friday that there was little chance of reaching an agreement with London. However, as we have said, the EU has never rejected this chance.

But there remains a whole host of questions that traders clearly did not take into account when they were actively buying the pound. We list them:

1) The European Union may banally reject Johnson's proposals for the EU summit. One more time.

2) The parties will simply not have enough of the remaining 5 days to discuss all issues regarding Brexit and the agreement on it and Brexit will still have to be postponed.

3) The Parliament of Great Britain will refuse to vote for a new deal, now by Boris Johnson, just as it had rejected Theresa May's deal earlier.

The likelihood of any of these options being executed is much higher than the likelihood of a deal. But what really needs to be noted is Boris Johnson's changed rhetoric, from which recently the words about "leaving the EU in any case on October 31" have disappeared sharply. Now the British prime minister poses the question as follows: either a deal with the EU, or a new postponement of Brexit. He informed the MPs about this, who will gather for an extraordinary meeting on October 19 in order to quickly respond to the results of the EU summit on October 17-18.

From the foregoing, this is what follows: we fully support the position of the European Union, which does not deny the possibility of concluding an agreement, but believes that the chances of a successful outcome of the negotiations are low. Thus, such a firm growth in the pound is clearly not consistent with the strength of the information that became the basis for the strengthening. That is why we assume that the pound will begin to become cheaper in the near future. Firstly, a technical downward correction is needed, which could reach 50% of the growth of the pound/dollar pair. This is a potential decrease to 1.2470, that is, to the Kijun-sen line. Secondly, now the pound, in order to maintain these positions, needs confirmation that London and Brussels really are going to sign the agreement until October 19. If such information is not available to traders, then the feeling of euphoria will quickly be replaced by a feeling of disappointment. Thirdly, if the notorious deal is not concluded before October 19, the pound sterling is almost guaranteed to resume the downward trend.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair continues its strong upward movement. Thus, we recommend now continuing to hold long positions for those who are already in them, but not opening longs to those who have not done this before. From our point of view, there is a high probability of a downward correction or even the resumption of a downward trend. In any case, the pound can be thrown from side to side next week, and volatility can be very high.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com