Rising global uncertainty in favor of dollar, euro and pound under pressure

The growth of uncertainty intensifies at the opening of the week on Monday. The Central Bank of China weakened the yuan against the dollar again. The rate has peaked since February 2008 while Asia-Pacific exchanges are trading in different directions.

The question of whether there will be a recession or not is no longer on the agenda. Now the American establishment has a completely different question, who will ultimately succeed in blaming it. Trump constantly claims that the Fed does not help the economy by maintaining too high interest rates and Jerome Powell even called the enemy of the state. In turn, the Fed is trying to avoid accusations of excessive politicization but Fed officials are inclined to consider Trump to be the main culprit in the onset of the recession, which, in their opinion, with clumsy actions in trade policy just destroys the basis for sustainable economic growth.

Former Fed official William Dudley said this week that "Fed officials can explicitly say that the Central Bank will not save the administration, which continues to make the wrong choice regarding trade policy, and it is clear that Trump will be responsible for the consequences of his actions."

These are signs of the start of a new presidential race. The parties indicate their positions and the US political and financial establishment is actively polarizing into two opposite camps. The Consumer Confidence Index showed the most significant monthly decline since December 2012, and the University of Michigan seems to be taking a side at the Fed in a heated debate about who is to be considered guilty of approaching the recession. The accompanying statement emphasizes that every third consumer who was surveyed mentioned tariffs as a negative factor. Such a policy may provide certain advantages in trade negotiations with China, but at the same time, it contributes to the growth of uncertainty and lower household consumption spending. It is noted that "undermining confidence is in full swing."

Other indicators look similar. Tips bond yields fell to the level of September 2016, that is, the business no longer sees the possibility of growth in consumer spending even against the backdrop of the tax reform. ISM notes a sharp slowdown in business growth and the trade balance, excluding petroleum products is showing a record drop.

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According to the CME futures market, the probability of two rate cuts is consistently high this year. This means that the Fed will lower the rate and will be forced to announce a slowdown in economic growth. With a high probability, the Fed meeting will be a turning point in the recognition that the global economy has turned to a new crisis.

The recognition of this fact will consolidate the diversion of safe and protective assets in favor of the fall of the former and the growth of the latter. This is how the main trend for the coming month looks like. The dollar is definitely a defensive asset as the euro and the pound are likely to continue its decline.

EUR / USD pair

Core inflation in the eurozone remained at the same level in August, which turned out to be worse than forecasts suggesting a slight increase. The confidence of the markets that the ECB is preparing for the widest stimulus package at the next meeting is growing and this confidence is putting strong pressure on the euro.

The support of 1.1027 did not resist and the chances of returning above 1.10 look weak. It is more logical to use any growth for sales with the target of 1.0920/30. A decline to 1.06 is not ruled out for a long time.

GBP/USD pair

The markets have come to understand that, nevertheless, Britain will leave the EU by November 1 but some optimism is based on the fact that the exit will be orderly. In any case, attempts to increase the pound last week are interpreted that way.

As for economic data, there is no reason for optimism. Gfk's consumer confidence index updated the low again, dropping to -14p, which turned out to be worse than expected. PMI forecasts suggest a further slowdown in the economy.

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The political struggle for the exit scenario from the EU is in full swing and the pound has nothing to rely on again. So, it is likely to resume the decline. Possible growth is limited by the zone to 1.2190/2202 with the nearest target of 1.2062, after its breakthrough the decline may increase.

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trade orders (September 2)

By the end of the last trading week, the pound / dollar currency pair showed volatility close to the daily average of 86 points, locally slowing down the quotation in the region of 1.2150. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quote has returned to the level of 1.2150 again, where it slowed down without any diligence, forming as a fact an accumulation. Whether this level of 1.2150 is strong in the market, there is no way, but because of the impending uncertainty regarding the divorce process, they are trying to grab hold of everything in order to take a break at least for a while.

As discussed in the previous review, speculative traders are working on the decline, where the focus of attention was concentrated just at the level of 1.2150, in terms of its breakdown. Did everyone went into short positions, as soon as we began to pierce the level, at the end of Friday, I'm not sure, because the move was already very sluggish. However, I do not exclude that a considerable part of speculators nevertheless entered, and perhaps, this is not a failed step, since the downward mood has not gone away. Conservative traders are in no hurry with actions, but they also monitor the level of 1.2150, because, perhaps, it will give an acceleration in terms of going to the psychological level of 1.2000. Considering the trading chart in general terms (the daily period), we see that half of the recent correction has already been won back, and this is a good sign in terms of restoring the downward trend and forming the Impulse tact.The main conversation and the continuation of the formation of the global downward trend will go after the breakdown of the psychological level of 1.2000.

Meanwhile, Friday's news background did not have complete statistics for Britain and the United States, but it was needed when all traders and investors were immersed in the information background, in particular the "divorce process". Thus, the decision of the new prime minister to temporarily leave the country without parliament raised a considerable wave of negativity. Last weekend, thousands of protesters took to the streets of London, Manchester, Leeds, York and Belfast, blaming not only Boris Johnson, but also the queen who gave permission for this. The British deputies did not stand aside and announced their intention to present on Tuesday a plan to prevent the United Kingdom from leaving the European Union without an agreement. The opposition is confident that the Prime Minister is suspending the work of the parliament precisely for this. In turn, Boris Johnson decided to threaten politicians,

Naturally, against such a "positive" background, investors can only flee Britain or temporarily take the ostrich's position until at least a little explanation appears.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have only the manufacturing activity index in the manufacturing sector (PMI) for August in the UK, where there is a slight increase of 48.0 ---> 48.4. In the United States, today is a day off. Labor Day is celebrated, thereby trading volumes can be reduced. In your work, it is worth taking into account such a moment that the pound and its participants react exclusively to the information background, thereby even though we do not have solid statistics and Americans on the market, but we have not gone away from the background, we should carefully monitor the entire information flow.

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Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the fluctuation within the 1.2150 level continues in the market, where the quote is trying to go below it. In turn, speculative traders continue to analyze the behavior of prices near the level where some market participants already have short positions.

It is likely to assume that the fluctuation within the 1.2150 level will continue for some time, but the pressure on the British currency only intensifies with the onset of autumn, in the medium term we see only a decrease. Thus, selling positions are priority, where it is worthwhile to understand whether the quotation will be able to break the level of 1.2150 in a downward direction.

Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:

- Buying positions are considered in the case of price fixing higher than 1.2180-1.2200.

- Sell positions, if we still do not have, are considered if we look at how the price will show itself now and whether it can go lower than the 1.2138 puncture. The prospect of progress in this case is to 1.2100 ---- 1.2000 (+/- 30 points).

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Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators on all the main time intervals signal a further decrease, which in general terms, confirms the background in the English currency.

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Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(September 2 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 37 points. It is likely to assume that in the case of maintaining the inertial course and the breakdown level of 1.2150, volatility may begin to grow, and the information background will help us in this.

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Key levels

Resistance zones: 1.2150 **; 1.2350 **; 1.2430; 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 *; 1,3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1.3300

Support areas: 1.2150 **; 1,2000; 1.1700; 1.1475 **

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment

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EUR/USD Preview of the week: Nonpharma and the "gala concert" of the Fed representatives

On Friday, the euro/dollar pair opened up new price horizons, breaking through the psychologically important support level of 1.1000. Although this price movement was impulsive against the background of profit-taking at the end of the week and month and "thanks to" massive triggering of stops, the pair is in no hurry to return to their previous positions. The EUR/USD pair showed modest corrective growth but still remained within the ninth figure. The pair has not been at such marks since May 2017 then the price was within the uptrend, recovering after reaching the multi-year low of 1.0350.

At the moment, the downward trend dominates and the pair has the potential to further decline at least to the first, most powerful support level of 1.0750, which was the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the monthly chart. However, the pair may return to the previous price range of 1.1090-1.1210 but only due to the weakness of the dollar. The common currency is under pressure from a negative fundamental background, concerning the latest macroeconomic releases and dovish comments by Christine Lagarde put strong pressure on the euro. Hence, the EUR/USD bulls should focus only on American events in the context of a possible corrective price recovery.

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That is why Nonpharma will become the central event of the current week. Key data on the labor market after the comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who will speak at an economic forum in Switzerland, will determine the movement of the American currency. All other releases will have a secondary and more likely "supportive" role. According to preliminary forecasts, data on the labor market will again support the US currency but the optimism of traders may be restrained due to weak growth in the level of wages. Thus, the unemployment rate should remain at a minimum level of 3.7% with a sufficiently significant increase in the number of employees by +160 thousand. But here, a separate line is worth noting the growth rate of the average hourly wage. Experts expect the indicator to slow down in annual terms and should fall to a three percent mark (after reaching 3.2%). If the stated figures are confirmed, the dollar will receive some support, but at the same time, a weak increase in salaries can smear the overall positive outlook.

If the release comes out in the "red zone" as a whole, then the US currency will again be in limbo as talks will return to the market that the Fed will not be limited to one round of rate cuts before the end of the year. The published figures will be able to quickly comment on the head of the Fed Jerome Powell. After the release (15:30 UTC), he will deliver a speech "Economic Perspectives and Monetary Policy" at the University of Zurich. It is worth noting here that after the July rate cut, he said that he did not consider the decision of the US Central Bank as the beginning of a long cycle of reducing the cost of borrowed funds. If in the light of recent events he changes his mind, then the dollar will be under quite powerful pressure. Also, it is worth noting that Powell could take a "dovish" position against the backdrop of excellent Nonpharms (focusing on the conflict between the US and China). Therefore, do not rush to open trading positions immediately after the release of data on the growth of the American labor market. In this case, it is advisable to wait for the comments of the head of the Fed.

As I said above, other publications of a macroeconomic nature will play a secondary role for the EUR/USD pair. Today, the economic calendar is practically empty as the United States celebrates Labor Day, so the country's trading floors will be closed (as in Canada). During the European session on Monday, the final estimates of the manufacturing PMI indices of Germany, France, Italy, and the entire eurozone will be published. According to the forecast, the final assessment of these indices will coincide with the preliminary value, so these releases are unlikely to have any effect on the pair.

On Tuesday, traders should pay attention to the American manufacturing index ISM. Over the past four months, it gradually slides down, reaching 51.2 in July. According to most experts, the indicator in August will remain at its previous values. For dollar bulls, it is important that this indicator does not cross the 50-point value. This requirement is also true for the composite ISM index for the non-manufacturing sector. It also gradually decreases. If in May the index was at the level of 56 points, then it was already around 53.7 in July. According to the general forecast, the indicator in August will have a minimal recovery up to 54 points.

Also this week, several Fed representatives are expected to speak. Ten days before the meeting, members of the US regulator must abide by the "silence regime", but up to this point, many of them will comment on the current situation. Hence, on Wednesday, John Williams, James Bullard, Charles Evans, Michelle Bowman and Neil Cascari will speak and on Friday, Jerome Powell will have a speech, as mentioned above. He will put an end to this series of speeches ahead of the September meeting of the Federal Reserve.

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Thus, the euro/dollar pair will be waiting for key Friday data this week, while tracking the dynamics of US-Chinese trade relations. An increase in anti-risk sentiment can also be triggered by British events as the House of Commons will begin its work on September 3. If MPs are unable to dismiss Johnson and/or form an interim government, the euro will come under strong pressure, fueling interest in the sales of the EUR/USD pair. The impact of macroeconomic releases against this background will have a limited impact. In general, now the question is as follows: either the bulls of the pair will be able to "pull out" the price above the 10th figure in the range of 1.1090-1.1210 at the end of the week, or the downward trend will continue, which reduces the price to the middle of the seventh figure.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 09/02/2019 and trading recommendation

Macroeconomic reports that were released on Friday did not shine with data from Britain and the United States, but in principle it is not necessary when all attention is focused exclusively on political battles in the face of the Brexit divorce process.

After Boris Johnson made the "Queen" move, everything changed dramatically, the fear of investors, both the public and politicians acquired new colors, since blocking the Parliament is not a joke and the prime minister has every chance to leave the EU without any agreement, which scares the Labour even more. The English currency, in turn, gradually reduced volatility, and this is not due to the lack of a characteristic background, but simply a fear of uncertainty looming over everyone.

Today, in terms of macroeconomic reporting, we only have an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, where, in principle, there are no colossal changes. In turn, the United States has a day off to celebrate Labor Day. Well, since American traders and banks are resting, without them there will be extremely low activity on the market. Thus, all hope remains on further information background on Britain, Brexit in particular.

Great Britain 8:30 London time. - Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug): Prev 48.0 ----> Prog. 48,4

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The GBP/USD pair will retain a downward interest, which is due to the general information background, as a result of which the price has moved closer to the level of 1.2150, where it formed a local slowdown. Considering the trading chart in general terms, we see that there is some restraint in terms of reduction, although there are plenty of bases for the fall. This ambiguity again follows from the information background about which I wrote above, but I'm not certain as to how how long this restraint will last.

It is likely to assume that the temporal turbulence within 1,2140-1,2200, will persist for some time, but with the slightest margin trading forces and consolidating prices lower than 1.2130, the picture may change and we will again see a characteristic slope.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

  • Long positions can be seen as local growth to 1.2200, but in this case it is worth observing the conservative method of capital management, since the general interest of the market is downward.
  • We consider short positions in case of price consolidation lower than 1.2130, with the prospect of a move to 1.2080 - 1.2020.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators are versatile in nature, even though most of them are prone to decline. It is worth considering such a moment that while there is a local slowdown in the region of 1.2150, indicators at minute and hour intervals can be volatile in their performance.

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Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for September 2. Business activity in the production of the EU and Britain may cause

EUR / USD

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Friday, August 30, ended for the EUR / USD pair with a decrease of another 70 base points, which led to the transformation of the wave marking. Now, the entire trend section, originating on June 25, is interpreted as a 5-wave impulse structure. Thus, we have completed waves 1 and 2 in its composition, as well as completed waves 1 and 2 in the composition of future 3. If the current wave marking is correct, then the euro-dollar pair will continue to decline in the coming weeks as part of the construction of wave 3. On Friday, the one that caused the euro to decline was the speech by Christine Lagarde, who in 2 months will replace the ECB President Mario Draghi. She said that rates will go down, as the current state of the global economy and the EU economy requires intervention and stimulation. This uniqueness of her statement caused a storm of emotions in the foreign exchange market. Naturally, with direct statements and easing monetary policy, the euro came under pressure. Moreover, the news background implies that the euro will remain under this pressure, since everyone will now expect from the ECB to lower interest rates and other stimulation of the economy. In addition for today, by the way, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the European Union will be released.

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As you can see, the index fell in recent months "below the plinth" and there is little hope that it will increase above 50 in the coming months. Thus, the industrial sector of the European Union continues to be in a deplorable state.

Purchase goals:

1.1248 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.0969 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.0893 - 161.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair continues to build a bearish wave, which is now interpreted as 3, in 3. I recommend selling the pair with targets near the calculated levels of 1.0969 and 1.0893, which corresponds to 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci . An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 127.2% level may lead to quotes moving away from the minimums reached.

GBP / USD

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On August 30, the GBP / USD pair lost only about 20 bp, since for the first time in a long time, the focus of the Forex currency market was shifted towards the EUR / USD pair. Based on the current wave markings, I expect the completion of the construction of wave b in the near future and the new growth of the pair within the framework of the wave with targets located above 23 figure. As before, the news background may interfere with this. Also, the news in the UK is expected to be plentiful in the coming days. Tomorrow, British MPs will leave the holidays, who will urgently have to solve the issue of a new vacation, which starts on September 9, and was organized by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Since this is not just a vacation, but a direct threat to Brexit's implementation without an agreement, which the Parliament is doing its best, there is very little time left to resolve this issue. The first and most important question is whether a vote of confidence will be submitted to Boris Johnson? If so, what will be its consequences, will a real war break out inside the parliament between the deputies and the prime minister? As you know, all this can, firstly, affect the pound, and secondly, negatively affect the pound. The pound is now in an unenviable state, any new negative is a real chance to go below the 20th figure. Today, the UK currency will be able to continue building wave b, since the index of business activity in the UK manufacturing sector comes out and markets do not expect any major changes.

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Sales goals:

1.2016 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2306 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.2401 - 50.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The downward section of the trend is previously considered completed. Thus, now, it is expected to build an upward trend correction section with the first goals located near the calculated levels of 1.2306 and 1.2401, which corresponds to 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci. You can buy a pound, but I do not recommend doing it in large volumes. You can open purchases by the "up" MACD signal.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday levels of EUR/USD for September 02, 2019

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When the European market opens, a series of economic data will be released such as Final Manufacturing PMI, German Final Manufacturing PMI, French Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI. The US today will not release any economic data on the occasion of the Labor Day celebration. In this context, EUR/USD will trade with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:Breakout BUY Level: 1.1043.Strong Resistance:1.1037.Original Resistance: 1.1026.Inner Sell Area: 1.1015.Target Inner Area: 1.0990.Inner Buy Area: 1.0965.Original Support: 1.0954.Strong Support: 1.0943.Breakout SELL Level: 1.0937

Disclaimer: Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all traders or investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday levels of USD/JPY for September 02, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Final Manufacturing PMI and Capital Spending q/y. The US today will not release any economic data on the occasion of the Labor Day celebration. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will trade with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3 : 106.70

Resistance 2: 106.48

Resistance 1: 106.28

Support 1: 106.03

Support 2: 105.82

Support 3: 105.61

Disclaimer: Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all traders or investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 2, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price may begin to start a pullback upward movement, with the target of 1.2226 - the upper fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price may start a pullback upward movement.

An unlikely scenario is a downward movement with a target of 1.2127 - a pullback level of 61.8% (blue dashed line).

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Trading plan for USD/JPY for September 02, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair dropped to fresh lows on Friday at 1.0963 before pulling back. We have presented a compressed chart view of the 4H chart to highlight a potential ending diagonal wave structure. The conditions are fulfilled for a potential reversal for EUR, though another decline is also in place. It would be a safe trading strategy to build long positions from the current price at 1.0989 with a risk below 1.0900. Please note that the scenario is still valid for another low at 1.0930 going forward. Conservative traders are advised to wait until those levels are hit. Immediate price resistance is seen through 1.1165 for now. A break of this level would confirm that a meaningful low is in place. Please note that the counter trend rally has got the potential to push through 1.1400-1.1500 levels going forward. We shall bring updates in the wave structure as price action unfolds.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 2, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, an upward movement with the target of 1.1029 is possible - the lower fractal (black dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, an upward movement with the target of 1.1029 is possible - the lower fractal (black dashed line).

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 02/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Coincheck, Japan's cryptocurrency market, has announced it is reducing the scope of leveraged trading options to comply with local regulations. In a blog post published today, the company said they were reducing the leverage available for margin trading from five to four times.

This move was a direct response to the best practices presented by the Japanese Virtual Currency Exchanges Association - or JVCEA - a dedicated self-regulatory body for the Japanese stock exchange industry.

As written in the blog, the changes should take effect from October 31. Coincheck calls on investors to cancel any planned margin calls and take some precautions.

Margin trading involves significant risk, and it has even been suggested that practice can transfer entire Bitcoin market rates. Nevertheless, this option is gaining popularity and new offers from players such as the Binance exchange are coming to the market.

Coincheck, which recovered after a gigantic $ 530 million hacker hack in January 2018, revealed last week that it is considering launching an additional IEO branch. Similar to ICO, IEO makes it easier to sell crowdsale tokens directly through the exchange without the need for an intermediary

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has been trading inside of the narrow range between the levels of $164.81 - $172.82 for all the weekend. Despite the fact, that the wave Z of the overall corrective cycle might have been completed already, the bulls are not showing any strength on the market yet, which is why the price is trading horizontally. Moreover, the price is still being closed inside of the short-term descending channel, so only an impulsive move out of the channel can give a signal for the market participants to resume the uptrend on this pair.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $214.26

WR2 - $203.46

WR1 - $183.94

Weekly Pivot Point - $173.24

WS1 - $152.37

WS2 - $142.84

WS3 - $121.31

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 2. The pound will continue to remain under pressure amid the suspension

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Tensions over the Brexit situation and the suspension of the UK Parliament continue to put pressure on the pound. Buyers made an attempt on Friday to go above the resistance of 1.2200, but failed to do so. At the moment, the task of the bulls is to break the resistance of 1.2188, as well as consolidate higher, which will lead to a larger upward correction to the area of a significant level of 1.2232, where I recommend taking profits. If the bears continue to pull down the pound, I recommend to open long positions only after the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2143, which on Friday kept the pound from falling, or buy for a rebound immediately from a low of 1.2107. However, the update of 1.2107 will indicate a complete turnaround of the upward trend, so strong growth from this range can hardly be expected.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The main task of the pound sellers is to break the support of 1.2143, near which all the downward movement stopped on Friday. Only such a scenario will allow counting on updating the lows in the region of 1.2107 and 1.2065, which will completely erase all attempts by pound buyers to return to the market in the near future. The formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.2188 will also be a good signal to open short positions in GBP/USD, however it is best to sell immediately for a rebound at the high of 1.2232, which is a very important medium-term resistance level.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible continuation of the pound's fall.

Bollinger bands

In case of pound growth, the upward potential of the indicator will be limited by the upper boundary of the indicator at 1.2195. A bearish impulse can be stopped by the lower boundary at 1.2135.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 02/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The growing number of retail investors is betting on Bitcoin as a hedge against macroeconomic turmoil during the protracted trade war between the US and China.

Data from industry-specific financial portals reveal a correlated increase in both Bitcoin and Gold on its trading platforms after the announcement of an escalation of trade tensions between the US and China.

While gold has long been considered a safe haven in periods of macroeconomic or geopolitical instability, stock market data point to the growing perception of Bitcoin among investors as a form of "digital gold" and a means of thesaurization in an uncertain global climate, as Bitcoin has similar characteristics to gold: it will only the finite amount (21 million) of BTC is decentralized, its price is not influenced by inflation and has an additional advantage over gold due to lower storage costs.

There are several factors that still hinder Bitcoin's acceptance as a primary safeguard, noting that its reputation is still undermined by perceived price volatility, alleged market manipulation and the prevalence of hacking intrusions in the cryptocurrency sector.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has been trading for all the weekend inside of a narrow range located between the levels of $9,415 - $9,704. The bulls are still testing the upper boundary of this range which is still a technical resistance for the price. In the case of a breakout higher, the market will move towards the level of $9,826, which is the nearest technical resistance. Please notice, that from the Elliott Wave theory point of view, the market is very close to terminate the wave Y of the corrective cycle in the wave 2, or this cycle had been completed already and the market is ready to resume the up trend.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,528

WR2 - $11,079

WR1 - $10,223

Weekly Pivot Point - $9,753

WS1 - $8,875

WS2 - $8,358

WS3 - $7,589

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 01/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has failed to rally above the 61% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2324 and reversed towards the main technical support level located at 1.2156. This level has been recently violated as well as the market is now moving down towards the lower line of the Broadening Wedge. This dynamic support for the market is located around the level of 1.2130 - 1.2135 and if violated then the price will return to the downtrend and move further towards the level of 1.2118 and below. Weak and negative momentum supports the short-term negative outlook for this pair.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2411

WR2 - 1.2356

WR1 - 1.2237

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.2187

WS1 - 1.2067

WS2 - 1.2021

WS3 - 1.1902

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2429 and it must be clearly violated. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.2000 and below.

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Control zones for GBP / USD pair on 09/02/19

Testing of the 1/2 WCZ makes it possible to consider purchases from the zone during the second test and the formation of the "false breakdown" pattern. The main growth target is the weekly control zone of 1.2384-1.2350, which gives a favorable risk-to-profit ratio for a long position.

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The last downward movement took place over three days. To confirm the reversal pattern, it will be necessary to close the American session above Friday's opening.

An alternative fall model will be developed if the closure of today's US session occurs below 1.2123. This will indicate the need to find favorable selling prices for the current week. The first goal of the fall will be the August low.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 01/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has broken through the technical support located at the level of 1.1027 and made a fresh new low at the level of 1.0964. The momentum is now negative and weak and the market conditions are now oversold, so there is always a chance for a bounce towards the level of 1.1027 to test it from below. Nevertheless, if bears continue to make pressure on the market, the next target for them is seen at the level of 1.0908.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1285

WR2 - 1.1224

WR1 - 1.1084

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.1025

WS1 - 1.0886

WS2 - 1.0818

WS3 - 1.0681

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0814 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1250.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 2. Bears hit the euro at the worst possible moment

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Despite the fact that it's the end of the month and there are expectations of profit taking, the weak data on the eurozone economy that was released on Friday hit the EUR/USD pair, which led to another update of monthly lows. At the moment, buyers should rely only on the level of 1.0982, since only the formation on it will be the first signal to open long positions. More rational purchases are best done after updating the low of 1.10955, with confirmation of the divergence on the MACD indicator, which is now being formed on the hourly chart. The main task of the bulls will be the resistance of 1.1010, consolidating above which will lead to an upward correction to the area of a high of 1.1048, where I recommend profit taking.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Today, the United States celebrates Labor Day, so a number of markets will be closed, which will affect the volume and volatility. However, in the first half of the day, indexes are expected to be released for the manufacturing sector of the eurozone countries, which may increase pressure on the euro and cause the pair to further fall. A break of support at 1.0982 will be the first sell signal in order to update the lows 1.0955 and 1.0927, where I recommend taking profits, as bullish divergence on the MACD indicator can form in this range. In the EUR/USD growth scenario in the morning after the reports, which is unlikely, it is best to open short positions after a false breakdown in the 1.1010 area, where the moving averages are concentrated, or a rebound from the resistance of 1.1048.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading below 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a continued decline in the euro.

Bollinger bands

If the euro rises in the morning, short positions can be opened by a rebound from the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1035. The downward trend can be stopped by the lower boundary at 1.0955.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 2, 2019

EUR/USD

On Friday, the euro fell to the first target of 1.0980, having worked the Fibonacci level of 138.2%. The Marlin Oscillator on the daily falls in the negative trend zone.

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On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the oscillator is slightly bent up, which is quite consistent with our expectation of a small correction from the first target level. Correction is possible to an August 1 low at a price of 1.1027.

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It is a national holiday today in the US, which also contributes to a respite from the market before a further decline. The next target 1.0840 is the area close to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% with the the price channel line on the daily chart.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 2, 2019

GBP/USD

On Friday, the pound once again tested the Fibonacci level of 223.6% and plunged to the level of 238.2%, while making a puncture of the signal level (1.2154). The Marlin oscillator on a daily scale probes the border with the territory of the "bears".

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On the four-hour chart, the price reversal came from the MACD line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is consolidating in a narrow range. We are waiting for a further price reduction; the first goal is the Fibonacci reaction level of 261.8% at the price of 1.2032, then the price will try to work out a zone of coincidence of the Fibonacci level of 271.0% with the price channel line in the region of 1.1986.

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on September 2, 2019

USD / JPY pair

The economic indicators released in Japan were a little disappointing this morning. As a result, the dollar was weak against the yen and a new week opened with a falling gap. The index of business activity worsened from 49.5 points to 49.3 in August, while the volume of capital investments showed an increase of only 1.9% in the 2nd quarter against 6.1% in the 1st quarter. On the daily chart of the currency pair, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator did not go into the zone of positive numbers but there is a slight hitch with growth.

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On the four-hour chart, the price stayed on the lines of balance and MACD, and the Marlin oscillator remains in the growth zone. The opening of the market with a gap speaks in favor of its subsequent closure and continued growth in prices. To develop a negative scenario, the price needs to gain a foothold below the low of the Asian session at 105.9. However, below this level, there is quite strong support on August 27-28 at an average price of 105.68. Only after consolidation below would it be possible to consider the goal of 104.74 as the support for the red lowering channel on the daily chart.

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In the main scenario, we are waiting for the price at 106.74, which is near the MACD line on the daily chart. The next target will be the resistance line of the rising price channel at 107.10.

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Control zones EURUSD 09/02/19

Today's construction of the trading plan should be based on the fact that the closing of trading last week occurred below the average weekly move. This increases the likelihood of the formation of a correctional upward model to 90%.

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The downward movement remains a medium-term impulse, so any growth should be considered as an opportunity to enter sales.

An alternative model will be the continuation of the fall from current levels without the formation of a correctional model. This will not allow you to enter the sales, since the probability of a return is above 90%. Corrective growth is required to enter a short position. The most favorable selling prices are within WCZ 1/2 1.1051-1.1043.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones AUDUSD 09/02/19

The August movement is a complex impulse structure. At the beginning of last week, there was consolidation above WCZ 1/2, which indicates an upward priority. Today, the WCZ 1/2 0.6723-0.6716 test is taking place again. Purchases from this zone are profitable, since the growth target continues to be the weekly control zone 0.6838-0.6825.

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The flat movement of August implies the continuation of work from monthly extremes, so they should be taken into account in trading plans.

To break the ascending structure, it will be necessary to close today's trading below 0.6716. This will make it possible to resume work in a downward direction. The first goal of the fall will be the low of August.

analytics5d6c82adc478e.png

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for September 2

Forecast for September 2:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1040, 1.1012, 1.0996, 1.0960, 1.0948 and 1.0922. Here, we continue to monitor the descending structure of August 26. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.0960 - 1.0948. In this case, the potential target is 1.0922. When this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.0996 - 1.1012. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1040. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of August 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.0996 Take profit: 1.1010

Buy 1.1014 Take profit: 1.1040

Sell: 1.0948 Take profit: 1.0922

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2252, 1.2200, 1.2177, 1.2113, 1.2063, 1.2028 and 1.1977. Here, we follow the development of the descending structure of August 27. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2113. In this case, the target is 1.2063. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.2063 - 1.2028. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1977. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2177 - 1.2200. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2252. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of August 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2177 Take profit: 1.2200

Buy: 1.2203 Take profit: 1.2252

Sell: 1.2113 Take profit: 1.2065

Sell: 1.2061 Take profit: 1.2030

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0025, 0.9980, 0.9958, 0.9920, 0.9877, 0.9856 and 0.9822. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of August 26. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9920. In this case, the target is 0.9958. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9958 - 0.9980. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.0025. Upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9877 - 0.9856. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the target is 0.9822. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of August 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9920 Take profit: 0.9958

Buy : 0.9980 Take profit: 1.0025

Sell: 0.9877 Take profit: 0.9857

Sell: 0.9854 Take profit: 0.9822

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 107.88, 107.14, 106.87, 106.52, 105.65, 105.37, 104.92 and 104.44. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of August 26. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.52. In this case, the target is 106.87, where consolidation is near this level. The passage at the price of the noise range 106.87 - 107.14 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 107.88. Consolidation is near this level.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 105.65 - 105.37. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 104.92. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 104.44. Consolidation is near this level.

The main trend: the ascending structure of August 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 106.52 Take profit: 106.85

Buy : 107.15 Take profit: 107.88

Sell: 105.35 Take profit: 104.94

Sell: 104.90 Take profit: 104.46

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3408, 1.3379, 1.3357, 1.3328, 1.3318, 1.3275, 1.3259, 1.3241 and 1.3217. Here, the price forms a pronounced potential for the upward movement of August 27. The continuation of the development of the upward trend is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3318 - 1.3328. In this case, the target is 1.3357. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.3357 - 1.3379. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3408. Upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3275 - 1.3259. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.3241. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward movement. In this case, the first potential target is 1.3217.

The main trend is the rising structure of August 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3328 Take profit: 1.3357

Buy : 1.3359 Take profit: 1.3377

Sell: 1.3275 Take profit: 1.3262

Sell: 1.3257 Take profit: 1.3241

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6755, 0.6742, 0.6714, 0.6704, 0.6689, 0.6681 and 0.6663. Here, we follow the development of the downward cycle of August 26. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 0.6714 - 0.6704. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.6689. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6689 - 0.6681. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6663. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6742 - 0.6755. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of initial conditions for the top. In this case, the potential target is 0.6786.

The main trend is the descending structure of August 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6742 Take profit: 0.6755

Buy: 0.6757 Take profit: 0.6780

Sell : 0.6704 Take profit : 0.6690

Sell: 0.6680 Take profit: 0.6664

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 117.31, 117.00, 116.79, 116.44, 116.19, 115.81 and 115.59. Here, we follow the development of the descending structure of August 26. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 116.44 - 116.19. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 115.81. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 115.59. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation in the range of 115.81 - 115.59, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 116.79 - 117.00. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 117.31. This level is a key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward cycle of August 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 116.79 Take profit: 117.00

Buy: 117.02 Take profit: 117.31

Sell: 116.44 Take profit: 116.20

Sell: 116.17 Take profit: 115.81

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 133.74, 132.73, 132.17, 131.23, 130.57, 129.00 and 128.12. Here, the price has entered an equilibrium state. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 130.57 - 131.23. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 132.17. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 132.17 - 132.73. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 133.74. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

The range of 129.00 - 128.12 is the key support for the ascending structure of August 12. The breakdown of the level of 128.12 will favor the development of the downward movement. In this case, the first potential target is 126.48.

The main trend is the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 130.58 Take profit: 131.23

Buy: 131.26 Take profit: 132.17

Sell: 128.96 Take profit: 128.12

Sell: 128.10 Take profit: 126.55

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