Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 14, 2018

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair is rebounding after touching the rising 50-period moving average. The relative strength index has landed on the neutrality level at 50 and is turning up. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 109.30. Hence, as long as this key level holds on the downside, look for a bounce with targets at 109.80 and 110.00 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: Buy, stop loss at 109.30, take profit at 109.80.

Resistance levels: 109.80, 110.00, and 110.35

Support levels: 109.30, 109.15, and 108.95.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 14, 2018

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Our first target which we predicted in the previous analysis has been hit. Despite the recent rebound from 0.9975 (around the low of May 11), the pair is still staying below its declining 50-period moving average, which maintains the downside bias. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. Therefore, as long as 1.0015 holds on the upside, look for a further decline with targets at 0.9930 and 0.9900 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 1.0015, take profit at 0.9930.

Resistance levels: 1.0040, 1.0060, and 1.0090

Support levels: 0.9930, 0.9900, and 0.9875

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 14, 2018

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NZD/USD is expected to trade in lower range. The pair continues to show downward momentum while showing a bearish pattern of lower highs. Currently, it has returned to the levels below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, targeting the immediate support (first downside target) at 0.6920. The relative strength index remains subdued at the levels below the neutrality level of 50, showing a lack of upward momentum for the pair. Intraday bearishness persists, and a break below 0.6920 would trigger a further decline toward 0.6900.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7000, 0.7025, and 0.7060

Support levels: 0.6920, 0.6900, and 0.6860

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for May 14, 2018

EUR/JPY

In a bearish outlook, EUR/JPY trended downwards on Monday and Tuesday, and then started to make a rally effort. It managed to close above the demand zone at 130.50 on Friday, in the context of a downtrend. It is much more likely that the rally would end up offering a clean opportunity to go short in the market at strategic supply zones.

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There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Unless the Euro gets strengthened considerably, there might be a reversal in favor of bears, which would enable the market to target the demand zones at 130.50, 130.00 and 129.50.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 14, 2018

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook and continue its rebound. The pair is edging higher and is challenging the key resistance at 149.25. Both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages play support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index is bullish, calling for a further upside. To conclude, as long as 148.20 is not broken, look for a new advance with targets at 149.25 and 149.65 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 149.25,149.65, and 150.20

Support levels: 147.90, 147.40, and 147.85

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for May 14, 2018

USD/JPY

The bias on the USD/JPY pair is bullish and the trend is still in a precarious position. Price did not go in a strong directional movement last week. It only oscillated between the demand level at 109.00 and the supply level at 110.00.

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A breach above the supply level at 110.00 is anticipated this week, although bulls may not be able to enjoy that victory for a long time, because there is a possibility of a fall back towards the demand level at 109.00. There is currently a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which is, though, weak.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for May 14, 2018

USD/CHF

In the context of an uptrend, the USD/CHF pair went sideways last week, ranging between the resistance level at 1.0000 (previously a support level) and the resistance level at 1.0050. Eventually, price closed below the resistance level at 1.0000 on Friday, and it may even test the support levels at 0.9950 and 0.9900.

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There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, which shows the possibility of further upwards movement. However, price would rise again, possibly reaching the resistance level at 1.0000 and breaching it to the upside.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for May 14, 2018

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The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 stood as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous week's consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred Yesterday.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.6860 and 0.6820. That's why, the price level of 0.7050 is currently considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

Any bullish breakout above the price level of 0.7050 hinders further bearish decline allowing bullish pullback to occur towards 0.7170-0.7220.

On the other hand, conservative traders can wait for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) (significant supply zone) for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.7260.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 14, 2018

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Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 1.2200 and 1.2500 until bearish breakout occured recently.

Significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400.This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of April 20.

The short-term outlook turns to become bearish as long as the EUR/USD pair keeps trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range remains broken.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

As mentioned, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered significant bullish rejection and a short-term bullish pullback for intraday traders. Target levels should be located around 1.2100 and 1.2160.

Conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.2190-1.2200 for a valid low-risk SELL entry.

However, If bearish momentum dominates, bearish persistence below 1.1700-1.1750 (zone of previous daily lows) will be needed to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1400 (the previously mentioned monthly key-level).

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Trading Plan for US Dollar Index for May 14, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index story continues to keep its rising trend intact, while it takes a momentary dip for now. After printing highs at 93.41 on May 09, 2014, the dollar index continues to consolidate its earlier gains, drifting lower towards a fibonacci 0.382 support at 91.80 levels and also a channel line support, that typically forms wave 4. According to the 4H chart displayed here, the index is expected to drop through 91.80 and channel line support around May 16, 2018. Looking into the wave counts, the US Dollar Index is progressing into wave (3) of a higher degree and within that wave (3), it is set to carve wave 4 of a lesser degree. Interim resistance stays at 93.41 levels for now, while support is seen through 91.80 levels to start with. If this wave structure holds true, prices would ideally stay above 90.50/60 levels before turning higher again.

Trading plan:

Remain long for now and look to add further around 91.80 levels, stop below 90.00, target 95.00 plus.

Fundamental outlook:

There are no major events lined up for the day.

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Trading Plan for FTSE for May 14, 2018

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Technical outlook:

We have presented a 4H chart view for FTSE to have a medium-term outlook, after having discussed last on April 30, 2018. The price action suggests that FTSE might have topped out at 7790/95 levels in January 2018. Thereafter, the indice has dropped lower unfolding into 5 waves (impulse) as labelled here as wave (1) or A. Subsequently the steep rally has went past the fibonacci 88% as shown here. A typical wave (2) property would be it can retrace wave (1) to these levels. Bottom line, till prices stay below 7790/95, the high made in January 2018, FTSE is expected to remain in control of bears going forward. A break below the 7650 levels would also break the steep rising support trend line and accelerate lower. Price support comes in at 7500 levels, followed by 7300 and lower. If the above wave structure holds good, we should see FTSE dropping below 6900 levels going forward.

Trading plan:

Remain short with risk above 7795 levels, targeting below 6900 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

There are no major events lined up for the day.

Good luck!

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BITCOIN Analysis for May 14, 2018

Bitcoin has been impulsive inside a bearish trajectory recently that led the price to consolidate at the edge of $8,500 support area currently. Despite certain bearish pressure in the market, the overall Crypto market is going stronger day by day recently. So, Bitcoin bulls are likely to attack in the coming days. Everyday, retail market participants and big companies are entering the Crypto market which is speculated as a good sign for the bullish trend in the crypto markets in the coming days. Bitcoin being the flagship of all the cryptocurrencies is expected to lead the market to a better place in the future. As for the current scenario, certain bearish pressure in the market is being observed at the edge of $8,500 but the price is still being supported by the Kumo Cloud that is expected to lead to further bullish momentum in the coming days. As the price remains above $8,000-$8,500 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Global macro overview for 14/05/2018

Japan is the most indebted developed country in the world. At present, the country's debt is 2.4 times higher than the gross domestic product, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. In 2013-2017, Japan paid 7.4 trillion yen (68 billion USD) for servicing T-bonds of 630 trillion JPY. This means that the state saved 4.9 billion JPY ( $45 billion) if we compare the average debt servicing cost incurred in 2012.

The funds saved can be enough to pay the annual defense spending. All because of the quantitative easing conducted by the Japanese central bank. Loans costs thanks to this were in the vicinity (and even below) of zero. This is to help domestic entrepreneurs and encourage them to take out loans and increase spending. Nevertheless, the key question is how much the nation can borrow and how sustainable the existing debt is. By keeping borrowing costs low, the central bank aims to make it easier for companies to borrow and spend. It also relieves pressure on the government to achieve its target of stopping the increase in debt, as the BOJ has replaced the market in setting bond yields.

The Bank of Japan long-term inflation target is still at the level of 2.0%. If inflation will reach this level, the BOJ may start looking to normalize policy by cutting back asset purchases and raising interest rates. That would cause the cost of issuing new bonds to rise, worsening the nation's fiscal position. Moreover, the Japanese Yen would start to massively appreciate across the board in the currency market.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. There is a possible Double Top formation at the level of 110.00, so the mid-term top might be in place already. Moreover, the market has fallen out of the rising channel, which confirms the negative outlook for the week. So far, the navy trend line provides the support, but in a case of a downside breakout, the next support is seen at the level of 108.81 and 108.62.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for May 14, 2018

USD/JPY has been quite volatile, making correction in the overall impulsive non-volatile bullish trend for more than month now. Due to recent downbeat economic reports from the USD, certain confusion has arisen in the market which led to certain volatility and consolidation, being observed currently.

Ahead of the Retail Sales and Building Permits reports to be published this week, USD seemed to be sustaining the bullish impulsive pressure in the market that is expected to push the price higher in the coming days. Today, FOMC Member Mester is going to speak about upcoming interest rate decisions and monetary policies. Her speech is expected to have little impact on the gains of USD this week. Moreover, the Retail Sales report to be published tomorrow is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.6% and Building Permits is expected to be unchanged at 1.35M. As no definite hawkish forecast is made on the USD side this week, certain volatility may remain on the pair throughout the week.

On the JPY side, today PPI report was published with a slight decrease to 2.0% from the previous value of 2.1% as expected and Prelim Machine Tool Orders report was also published with a decrease to 22.0% from the previous value of 28.1%.

As for the current scenario, JPY has been quite dovish with the economic reports today as well, which put the market into greater confusion already. This is likely to lead to certain consolidation and volatility along the way. Until USD comes up with better economic reports to push the price higher with enormous pressure in the coming days, further correction is expected in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite bullish, proceeding higher towards 100.00-50 resistance area with a dynamic level of 20 EMA acting as support along the way. The price is expected to push higher under the current market conditions but certain consolidation and correction is expected throughout the process. If the price breaks above 110.50 with a daily close, further bullish momentum with a target towards 112.00 is expected in the future. As the price remains above 108.50 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Global macro overview for 14/05/2018

The new week investors begin in a cheerful mood, which is visible primarily on the stock market, but on the currency market, it turned into a drift without the advantage of the dollar, that lost the momentum which in recent weeks provided it with a clear appreciation for other currencies. The lack of negative consequences of breaking the nuclear contract with Iran by President Trump and worse than expected US CPI readings allowed regrouping and profit taking and now we are in the phase of waiting for a new impulse. The macroeconomic background is still favorable, while the rest of the world has not yet recovered from the series of signals about the slowdown in economic activity. Despite this, investors are not yet willing to opt for any option (buy or sell USD). Therefore, the nearest hours may pass on a calm anticipation of the new impulse.

In conclusion, the data package from the last two weeks somehow does not give a strong basis for the markets to speculate for a shift in median FED members towards a total of 4 interest rate increases during the upcoming FED meeting on June 13. Even Iran's case did not change it too much, because oil prices have not gone up too high, although if a new agreement with Tehran cannot be worked out in the coming weeks and the sanctions come into force, the prices of the oil may remain at high levels, which in turn will give birth to speculations about inflationary pressures.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. After a top at the level of 93.42, which ended in a Doij candlestick formation, the price has dropped towards the level of 92.34. This level is very close to the dashed channel support and the market can bounce from this level soon. The oversold market conditions support this temporary recovery possibility, but if the market will slide further, the next support is seen at the level of 92.00.

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EUR/CHF analysis for May 14, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/CHF pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1971. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found a potential end of the upward corrective structure, which is a sign that buying looks very risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities if you see a valid breakout of upward trendline. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1870.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1957

R2: 1.1960

R3: 1.1976

Support levels:

S1: 1.1948

S2: 1.1942

S3: 1.1939

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for May 14, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $8.173. The decree to regulate cryptocurrencies and initial coin offerings in Thailand go into effect on Monday. The government has also revised the country's tax code to add crypto taxation. Sellers of digital tokens will face a fine or even jail time if they fail to register with the regulator within 90 days. Technical picture on Bitcoin looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that price broke bearish flag in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found that MACD oscillator started to turn bearish, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $8.172 and at the price of $7.986.

Support/Resistance

$8.728 – Intraday resistance

$8.246– Intraday support

$8.172 – Objective target 1

$7.986 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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USD/JPY analysis for May 14, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 109.61. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential contracting flat corrective phase in creation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a breakout of the supply trendline and a hidden bullish divergence on the MACD oscillator in the background, which is another sign of strength. Watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 110.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: 109.40

R2: 109.47

R3: 109.53

Support levels:

S1: 109.27

S2: 109.21

S3: 109.15

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Wave analysis of the GBP/USD currency pair. Weekly review

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Analysis of wave counting:

Throughout the past week, the GBP/USD pair has not been able to determine the direction of the movement, trading before the close of the Friday session, mainly between the level of 1.3600 and the mark of 1.3460. It can be assumed that the currency pair began to make attempts to complete the wave c and transition to the stage of formation of the wave d, in b, in B, in C, in C, in (A). If this is the case, and the price will fall almost to the level of 1.3400, wave c, in b, in B, in C, in C, in (A), will not take an even more complex and extended form, then from the already reached minimum on Thursday the currency pair can start a rather dynamic growth of quotations in the direction of the level of the 40th, or even the 42nd figure.

Targets for buying:

1.3443 - 38.2% by Fibonacci

1.3165 - 50.0% by Fibonacci

Targets for selling:

1.3788 - 23.6% by Fibonacci

1.4000 - 1.4200

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The sterling pound continues the construction of the assumed wave B, in C, in C, in (A). This week it is recommended buying a pair with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.3788, which corresponds to 23.6% Fibonacci, within the construction of wave d, in b, in B, in C, in C, in (A). To the sales I recommend to return below the level of 1.3443 with the targets, which are about 1.3165 (50.0% Fibonacci).

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Wave analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair. Weekly review

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the past week, the EUR/USD pair began with a downward movement, and only after a decline to the level of 1.1820 rebounded more than 140 percentage points from the minimum reached on Wednesday. Thus, in connection with the working off of the ratio 1.618 (by Fibo) between the dimensions of waves a and c, in B, in (C), the currency pair has attempted to complete the wave c and go to the stage of wave formation d in B, in (C). If this is so, and wave c, in B, in (C) does not take an even more complex form, then the already indicated growth of quotations can be further developed in the direction of the level of the 23rd figure.

Target for buying:

1.2200 - 1.2400

Target for selling:

1.1828 - 161.8% by Fibonacci

1.1709 - 38.2% by Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The trading instrument supposedly completed the construction of the wave c, in B, in (C) near the calculated mark of 1.1828, which corresponds to 161.8% of Fibonacci. Thus, it is recommended buying the currency pair with targets that are about 23 and 24 figures within the framework of wave d. It is recommended to go back to selling at break of a mark 1.1828 with the targets, which are near the mark 1.1709 (38.2% on Fibonacci).

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Bitcoin analysis for 14/05/2018

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has banned banks and other financial institutions from facilitating cryptocurrency transactions in the country. In response to this coalition consisting of four platforms for the exchange of cryptocurrencies and other startups, the regulator filed a petition in court, questioning the RBI directive. The decision of the Supreme Court will be considered on May 17.

The Central Bank of India has banned banks and other regulated financial organizations from dealing in cryptocurrency transactions last month. The regulator maintained that such a decision was in the interest of investors, citing the fact that cryptocurrencies constituted a tool for dishonest actions. According to RBI, the huge number of threats associated with the cryptocurrency market forced the central bank to take action. Many opponents responding to the ban expressed their opposition to this decision. They believe that this movement threatens the growth and development of the domestic cryptocurrency market. Others point to the unclear language of the ban, questioning its constitutionality.

Before the ban was introduced, the RBI issued three separate press releases warning against cryptocurrency investments. The country's government is also hostile to cryptocurrencies. Despite this hostility, there are reports that RBI wants to create a national cryptocurrency for India.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the three wave advance to the upside, the marked is reversing again towards the local lows at the level of $8,200. This small wave up might be a wave x, which indicates a possible drop lower towards the level of $7,712 as the correction evolves into a complex one. Moreover, the golden trend line is still providing the dynamic resistance for the price, so as long as this line is not violated, the outlook remains bearish.

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–ĘTrading plan 05/14/2018

Trading plan 05/14/2018

The general picture: There is a lull in the markets. Range.

There was a calm in the markets. The calendar does not have strong data that can cause movement - until the end of next week.

From the "unexpected" - the last shock for the market - Trump's sharp speech against Iran: as you remember, Trump left the nuclear deal with Iran. This caused an increase in oil. However, subsequent statements by European leaders reassured markets: Europe remains in a deal with Iran. In addition, OPEC is ready to smooth out the situation with oil supplies in case of restrictions on supplies from Iran.

So, this shock is behind us.

Probably, we will see a quiet period in the markets - some growth in the stock markets - and a range in the foreign exchange market.

We believe that the growth of the dollar is stopped - for a while at least.

GBPUSD: Range.

Buy from 1.3460. Sell from 1.3770.

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Burning forecast 05/14/2018

Burning forecast 05/14/2018

EURUSD:Looking forward to continuing growth.

The euro showed a reversal up last week - the downtrend is completed at the moment.

There are no important news this week. There is possibility of continued growth of the euro.

Buy from 1.1940, stop 1.1890, the target is 1.2100.

Alternative: Sell from 1.1820, stopat 1.1865, profit at 1.1720.

For fans of aggressive trade: sell from 1.1890, stop at 1.1935, profit at 1.1820.

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Trading plan for 14/05/2018

The dollar remains supported across the board, although volatility at the start of the week is moderate. The stock market keeps up well with increases in China and Japan. Crude falls, feeling pressure from the growing number of wells in the US.

Changes in the main currency pairs from the beginning of the week do not exceed 0.3%. The strongest are NOK and SEK, the weakest NZD. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY are more or less at levels from Friday. Judging by the market behavior you can not see the risk on / risk off scheme, or rather it looks like a simple wandering. The climate on the stock market is positive with the growing optimism around global growth and hopes for the successful course of US-China trade negotiations. Chinese Shanghai Composite grows 0.3%, Hang Seng gains 1.1% and Japanese Nikkei 225 gains 0.5%.

On Monday 14th of May, the event calendar is light in important economic data releases. The global investors might keep an eye on speeches from ECB (Peter Praet, Sabine Lautenschager, Yves Mersch) and FED ( Loretta Mester, James Bullard) officials.

EUR/USD analysis for 14/05/2018:

After the week in which the US withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal and because of that added fuel to a looming deterioration in risk sentiment, which has been building recently by a weakening business cycle, this week might develop on a more positive sentiment as hopes of a fading US-China trade war are mounting.

In the Eurozone, risk sentiment has been largely unmoved as well, mostly due to the weekend's news that revealed the increasing likelihood of a coalition government formed by the two anti-establishment parties in Italy, the Five-Star Movement, and Northern League. Today, both parties will reveal their political and economic program that will mostly include cutting taxes and boosting spending. This news might influence the EUR/USD rate today, together with speeches form the ECB officials.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pair exchange rate is maintained in the upward channel as it approaches the Friday's high at 1.1965. Thus, the level of 23.6% Fibo at the level of 1.1995 is also tested. In fact, for the development of the correction, the market behavior in the zone around 1.2020 will be crucial, where the 200-session moving average and the zone of local highs converge. The fact that the exchange rate may have a big problem with the continuation of the increase may be confirmed by the triple divergence with the RSI index calculated for the hourly interval made in overbought market conditions. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1889 - 1.1897. The key technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2025 - 1.2053.

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Weekly review from May 14 to 19, 2018 on the GBP/USD pair

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

Last week, the price moved in the side channel. A strong candlestick figure of the reversal was formed (paired with a pullback level of 38.2% - this is a very strong "fence"), and the price (I think) will roll back up. How much the probability of this scenario is likely will be shown by a comprehensive analysis.

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Fig. 2 (weekly chart).

Complex analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- monthly chart - down.

Conclusion on the complex analysis is an upward movement.

The total result of the GBP/USD currency pair candlestick estimate according to the weekly chart: the price for the week is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candle and the presence of the second upper shadow.

The first top target is 1.3675 - the rolling level is 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Weekly review from May 14 to May 19, 2018 for the EUR/USD pair

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

The price, moving downwards, tested, but closed above the recession level of 61.8% 1.1937 (red dotted line), on large volumes, which indicates the possibility of starting the movement upwards. The more complex analysis will show more accurately where the price goes. The most likely upper target is 1.2055, the rollback level is 50.0% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 2 (weekly chart).

Complex analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up (red dotted line);

- volumes - upwards;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- monthly chart - down.

Conclusion on complex analysis - up.

The total result of the estimate of the candle currency EUR/USD pair on a weekly chart: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the presence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candle and the presence of a second upper shadow.

The first top target of 1.1996 is the retracement level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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The euro and pound will resume its fall

Eurozone

The ECB, analyzing the economic prospects of the Eurozone, notes a slight slowdown in growth since the beginning of the year. This slowdown, according to the ECB, is a consequence of several reasons. Firstly, a pullback after high growth rates in the second half of 2017 is quite logical, and secondly – the growth of risks associated with external factors, and first of all – protectionism policy.

As for the assessment of key parameters, they are not in favor of the euro. The ECB assumes that the inflation rate will not exceed 1.5% by the end of the year, which means that there is a threat of an increase in the yield spread between the dollar and the euro and, as a result, a decline in the european currency.

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ECB head Mario Draghi, speaking at a conference in Florence, said that the Eurozone needs a new fiscal instrument to effectively deal with crises. Whether he meant something similar to the tax reform initiated by US President Trump, or just trying to outline the circle of problems for the next summit of EU leaders, Draghi never explained. The euro strengthened slightly after the comments, but there is a more prosaic reason – locking in profits after a fairly strong strengthening of the dollar before the weekend.

Most likely, the euro on Monday will be traded neutrally before the publication of important macroeconomic data. On Tuesday, there will be a preliminary assessment of the growth rate of GDP and industrial production, as well as an assessment of the economic conditions by the ZEW Institute. On Wednesday, the focus on Eurostat's report on consumer inflation, the forecasts are neutral, a possible slowdown in inflation could trigger a new wave of decline.

Overall, the euro has no reason to start a new cycle of consolidation. It is more likely for selling to resume and movement towards the first obvious target of 1.1790.

United Kingdom

The pound ended the week near a 5-month low, staying away from a deeper fall amid the negative results of the Bank of England meeting on Thursday.

7 out of 9 members of the Committee voted to maintain the rate, as there were no objective reasons for its increase. Moreover, the forecasts are revised downward – the forecast for GDP growth for the current year is reduced from 1.8% to 1.4%, for 2019 and 2020 the forecast is maintained at 1.7%, besides the Bank of England expects a faster slowdown in inflation to 2% than previously expected.

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At the moment, the UK economy shows the weakest growth in the last 6 years, so the rate hike could trigger a recession.

At a press conference, Mark Carney tried to add optimistic notes, saying that the current dovish mood is temporary and personally he still expects two rate hikes in the next year and a half. In his opinion, withdrawal from the EU creates difficulties for the economy, because it is not clear how it will function after the transition period, but the labor market looks confident, and therefore there are no special reasons for concern.

The CFTC report showed that speculators are cutting long positions in the pound, focusing on the fact that the dollar will show more convincing results in the coming weeks.

The pound is likely to start the week with selling. On Tuesday, the labor market report will be published, the most attention will be directed to the growth rate of average wages, the forecast is optimistic, if it is justified, the pound will be able to recoup part of its losses. Also on Tuesday, a hearing of the inflation report in Parliament will begin, which may result in a political show, as it will give the opposition a chance to use the weak results to attack the government.

Corrective growth is limited by the level of 1.3650, more likely the resumption of a decline, a target of 1.32 by the end of the week.

Oil

Oil prices stabilized by Friday evening, having played a negative, connected with the withdrawal of the US from the deal on Iran. While the position of OPEC + is unclear, which can be corrected taking into account new circumstances, however, in any case it is not necessary to expect a decline in oil prices, oil will continue to grow, the target is 81.50 in the near future.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The daily review of GBP/JPY on May 14, 2018. Ichimoku Indicator

GBP/JPY

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Higher timeframes

Players on the decline could not realize the potential of the previous day. As a result, the premise was raised that the upper limit of the weekly cloud (Senkou Span A 147.66) would prove to be reliable support and would be able to slow down, and perhaps even stop the decline altogether. At the moment, the main objectives of players on raising are to transfer to their side the daily short-term trend (Tenkan 148.56) and in the further rise to the day cloud (Senkou Span A 148.93), with the goal of consolidating in it. For the players on the decline the main agenda has not changed, they have to overcome the upper limit of the weekly cloud (Senkou Span A 147.66)

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H4-H1

Today, the pair again tests the resistance of the bearish cloud H4 for strength, it is now quite wide and is filled with levels of resistance of the upper halves (148.55 - 148.97 - 149.40 - 149.63). Overcoming this area will form an upward target for the breakdown of the H4 cloud and will open new prospects for players to increase. If now the players on the upward can not overcome the boundaries of the clouds H4 (148.10), H1 (148.37) and cross H4 (148.42), strengthened by the daily Tenkan (148.56), then we can expect the formation of a release and new testing support 147.66 (weekly Senkou Span A). Overcoming the support and recovery of the downtrend (the minimum extremum of 147.03) will allow considering the continuation of the decline to new downward prospects.

Indicator parameters:

All time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

Clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

Support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

Horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

Trend lines - purple.

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Technical analysis on USDX for May 14, 2018

The Dollar index reversed as expected and made an important top last week. Price is moving lower at least for a correction of the rise from 89.23. Short-term trend has changed to bearish as the price is expected to move at least towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement at 91.85.

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The Dollar index is pulling back. Short-term trend is bearish as the price is making lower lows and lower highs. The Dollar index has important daily support at 91.85 where we find the 38% Fibonacci retracement. I expect this target to be achieved maybe even this week. However, there are a lot of chances of a move even towards lower than Fibonacci levels. A bounce and full scale reversal is then expected. The deeper the correction, the less chances of a big upward reversal next. Until then, we remain bearish looking for a move below 92-91.80.

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Technical analysis on Gold for May 14, 2018

Gold price has made an important low in May around $1,301 and we are bullish since then. We expect Gold price to reach $1,330-32 in the short-term and most probably this week before a move towards $1,310 again and the setup for a bigger bounce.

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The 161.8% extension of the first leg higher is our short-term target. This is also important short-term resistance. If Gold manages to break above, then we could even make a move towards the next Fibonacci target at $1,350. Support is at $1,301 and as long as the price is above that level, we consider any pullback as a buying opportunity.

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Indicator analysis. The daily review for May 14, 2018 on the GBP/USD pair.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Friday, the price continued to move in the side channel. On Monday, an upward movement is possible. Complex analysis will more accurately tell where the price will go.

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Fig. 2 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - upwards;

- Candle analysis - neutral;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, perhaps, the upward movement with the first target of 1.3616 - the upper fractal.

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