Bitcoin analysis for March 21, 2019

BTC has been trading upward but on the very slow paste, which is potential warning for the future upside.

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According to the H4 time – frame, we found that that there is potential for a change in the trend direction from bullish to bearish. The resistance at the price of $4.020 is holding that we expect potential downward movement. We might see potential fifth wolf's wave to complete the bearish pattern and that would signal downside. The projection for the potential drop is set at $3.633 and $3.500.

Trading recommendation: We are watching a potential breakout of the upward trendline to confirm further downside. The targets are set at the price of $3.633 and $3.500.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for March 21, 2019

Gold has been trading as we expected. The price tested and rejection of the level $1.318.59.

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According to the H4 time – frame, we found that successful rejection of the parallel line (resistance) at $1.319.50, which is a sign that buying looks risky. We also found that hidden bearish divergence on the macd oscillator and the potential end of the fourth wolf's wave pattern. Gold is expected to head towards the $1.280.35 and EPA (Estimated Price at Arrival) $1.258.6.

Trading recommendation: We entered short positions on Gold from $1.310.00 but we plan to add another short position if we see a breakout of the upward trendline at $1.297.50. The main target is set at the price of $1.258.65.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD analysis for March 21, 2018

AUD/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 0.7127.

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According to the 5M time-frame price structure, we found that there are prospects for an upward movement since there is potential fifth point of the wolf's wave bullish pattern. The price of AUD/USD is expected to grow based on this pattern and the current market structure. The EPA (Estimated Price at Arrival) is seen at 0.7165.

Trading recommendation: We are long AUD on intraday prospective from 0.7130 with the target at 0.7165. Protective stop can be placed below 0.7115.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

March 21, 2019: GBP/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations

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On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend line managed to push price towards 1.3200 before the GBP/USD pair came to meet the uptrend again around 1.2775 on February 14.

Another bullish wave was demonstrated towards 1.3350 before the bearish pullback brought the pair towards the uptrend again on March 11.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair slightly below the trend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Bullish persistence above 1.3060 allowed the GBP/USD pair to pursue the bullish momentum towards 1.3130, 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the current bearish pullback was initiated.

Bullish persistence above 1.3250 ( 50% Fibonacci expansion level ) was needed for confirmation of a bullish Flag pattern. However, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated below 1.3250.

Hence, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.3120 - 1.3100 where the depicted uptrend line comes to be tested again.

The current price zone of (1.3120-1.3090) corresponding to the uptrend line should be watched for a possible bullish reversal as long as bullish persistence above (1.3080) is maintained.

On the other hand, a bearish breakout below 1.3080 (23.6% Fibonacci expansion) invalidates the current bullish scenario allowing further bearish decline towards 1.3000 and 1.2965 (Next Fibonacci level).

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders should wait for a valid BUY entry anywhere around (1.3120-1.3090). T/P level to be located around 1.3180 and 1.3250. SL to be set as H4 closure below 1.3080.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: Bank of England passes the baton to the EU summit

The current week was eventful for the GBP / USD pair in the background of the Fed, the Bank of England, and the EU Brexit summit.

Despite the sharp weakening of the dollar, the British currency ended the day with a pullback to 1.32 support. The pound traders appeared to be disappointed that British Prime Minister Theresa May asked Brussels for a short-term postponement of the extreme date of the country's withdrawal from the EU.

If it were not for the "soft" comments of the Fed following the next meeting, which ended yesterday, the loss of the pound within the day could have been more substantial.

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Today, the GBP/USD pair was unable to grow on the recovery attempt and continued to decline to 1.31.

Pressure on the pound is still exerted by the continuing uncertainty around the exit of the United Kingdom from the EU.

Considering how late London's official request to postpone Brexit was made, EU members are unlikely to be able to take any decision on this matter at the next meeting of the European Council.

Earlier, the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, allowed the possibility of convening an emergency EU summit next week (until March 29) to decide whether to approve the UK's request for an extension of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

At the same time, the best options in Brussels are either to consider the postponement of Brexit until May 23, 2019 before the elections to the European Parliament or for a year.

In addition, the EU is unhappy that there is no agreement between the government and the British Parliament and they question the fact that Theresa May will be able to reach a consensus in the next 2 months.

If the British Prime Minister can not provide Brussels with assurances that the Brexit deal will eventually be accepted by the House of Commons, the renewal request is likely to be rejected.

Meanwhile, all these events look unfavorable for the Bank of England, which is forced to leave without attention the fact of wage and consumer price growth in the country in favor of the continuing uncertainty over Brexit.

Following the results of the next meeting, which took place today, the regulator decided to leave the base interest rate at the level of 0.75% again and at the same time, they confirmed the volume of assets repurchase from the market in the amount of 435 billion pounds sterling.

Additionally, the management of the Bank of England reported that further changes in interest rates would depend on the Brexit process and the next step for the Central Bank could either be raising or lowering borrowing costs.

It is assumed that the emergence of new reasons for postponing Brexit will be positive for the pound. At the same time, you should not finally write off the possibility of the United Kingdom's exit from the EU without a deal, which could turn into a failure for the British currency.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD plan for the American session on March 21. Bank of England will raise rates in the event of an orderly exit from

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged, saying that they were ready to raise them in the future provided that Britain will leave the EU in an orderly manner. This supported the pound, which fell sharply in the morning before the EU summit. Traders can return to purchases after fixing above the resistance of 1.3131, which will lead to an upward correction in the area of 1.3173 and 1.3222, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of further reductions on the news on Brexit, the long positions are best to look at the rebound from the lows of 1.3085 and 1.3034.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Bears coped with the task for the first half of the day but a further decrease is possible only with negative news on the postponement of the UK exit date from the EU. A failed consolidation above 1.3131 will be the first sell signal for the pound. Otherwise, short positions can be opened for a rebound from the maximum of 1.3173 and 1.3222. The main targets of the bears will be the minimums near 1.3085 and 1.3034, where I recommend taking profits.

More in the video forecast for March 21

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30- and 50-moving averages, which indicates the advantage of the pound sellers.

Bollinger bands

In the case of an upward correction in the pound in the second half of the day, growth may be limited by the average border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3194.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on March 21. The euro fell after yesterday's growth due to changes in the policy of the

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

A significant correction occurred in the area of major support level 1.1396, to which I drew attention in my morning review. Currently, the bulls are required to return to this range, which will lead to the formation of a new wave of growth with an update of the highs in the area of 1.1427 and 1.1459, where I recommend taking profits. A weak US labor market data could help the euro bulls. In case of further decline, long positions are best to return on a rebound from a minimum of 1.1361.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears managed to break through the important support of 1.1396 from the second attempt, however, the downward trend ended there. While trading will be conducted below this range, the option of further reducing the EUR/USD pair will be maintained and the sellers' goal will be at least in the area of 1.1361, where I recommend taking profits. Under the scenario of return to resistance 1.1396, it is best to look again at short positions from the resistance of 1.1427 and best to sell the euro on a rebound from the maximum of 1.1459.

More in the video forecast for March 21

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

The bears tested the 30- and 50-day moving averages, however, only a fixation below on which will indicate a break in the upward trend.

Bollinger bands

In the event of a further decline in the euro, support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1373. Euro growth will be limited to the middle of the channel in the 1.1410 area.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

FRS: Fed can completely refuse to raise interest rates this year

The US Federal Reserve has left the range of interest rates on federal funds unchanged. The Fed may completely refuse to raise interest rates this year.

The European currency has seriously strengthened its position in tandem with the US dollar after the US Federal Reserve left the range of interest rates on federal funds unchanged yesterday, signaling that it can completely refuse to increase rates this year.

According to the data, the Fed left the range of interest rates on federal funds unchanged between 2.25% and 2.50%, saying that it would respect the calm approach to the issue of changes in interest rates in the future.

Strong pressure on the US dollar was driven by the statement that interest rates will not rise this year, but this decision is not final and much will depend on the incoming data.

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The committee still expects the median interest rate on federal funds to be 2.4% by the end of 2019 and 2.6% by the end of 2020. In 2021, the rate will not rise and will remain at 2.6%. In the long run, the Fed expects the federal funds rate to be 2.8%.

Changes in monetary policy are primarily associated with a slowdown in economic growth. Despite the fact that the situation on the labor market remains favorable, the growth of the economy slowed down compared to the 4th quarter, which is reflected in a slowdown in the growth of household spending and investment by companies.

The Fed predicts the GDP growth in 2019 to 2.1% versus the December forecast of 2.3%. Unemployment in the US in 2019 is expected to be 3.7% against the December forecast of 3.5%.

Another important statement from the Fed concerns plans in completing the process of reducing its balance sheet, which will begin in May of this year and last until October. The regulator noted that he would continue to reduce mortgage-backed securities in his holding after the balance reduction process was completed. At the same time, it would reinvest the income from it into treasury bonds. Beginning in October 2019, the Fed will reinvest up to $20 billion a month in Treasury securities.

During the press conference, which took place immediately after the meeting of the Open Market Operations Committee, Jerome Powell said that the US economy is in good shape but the Fed leaders will be patient when considering changes in monetary policy.

Powell drew attention to data on retail sales, which indicate a slight slowdown in consumer spending, while expectations on inflation did not cause concern and remained near the lower limit of the range.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, its further growth will be supported and highly depend on the area of 1.1395. To maintain the upward trend, buyers of risky assets need to return to the resistance level of 1.1430, which will lead to the formation of large growth with the update of weekly highs at 1.1460 and 1.1490.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GOLD Trading system "Regression Channels" on March 21. Gold takes advantage of the odds

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

Junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 234.9411

After a strong decline in gold prices in the period of February 20 - March 5, this drags metal to continue its recovery and form a new uptrend. Yesterday, the Fed greatly helped many currencies and precious metals rise in price but gold was no exception. The exempted one was the sterling pound. Thus, the rise in prices for the most famous precious metal is absolutely logical. Plus you should not forget that the more uncertainty is associated with a particular currency asset, there is a greater demand for safe-haven assets and one of which is gold.

Now, there is enough uncertainty in the world and talks about the UK is not relevant to even speak once again. The US and China seem to have agreed on a trade agreement but there is no signed agreement. However, information has already appeared that China does not adhere to the terms of the agreement. Meanwhile, the US is threatening a trade war with the European Union, whose economy is going through hard times. In general, there are plenty of reasons to buy gold. From a technical point of view, the purple bars of the Heiken Ashi indicator and the upward direction of the older linear regression channel clearly indicate the direction of the trend. Due to the strong overbought of the CCI indicator, a rollback may follow in the near future.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1316.41

S2 - 1312.50

S3 - 1308.59

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1320.31

Trading recommendations:

Gold is currently continuing its upward movement. Thus, purchase orders with a target of 1320.31 and higher are relevant today. Heiken Ashi's reversal will indicate the beginning of a downward correction.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 21, 2019

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Overview:

Pivot point : 0.6882.

The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705. The pair is still moving around the daily pivot point of 0.6882. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to 0.6882 and further to 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. On the other hand, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 21, 2019

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the level of 0.7046 which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, the major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards the first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD Trading system "Regression Channels" on March 21. Fed meeting affected the pound and the Bank of England meeting

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -106.4178

The GBP / USD currency pair has fixed below the MA. Thus, a change in the downward trend has responded to the outcome of the Fed meeting rather indirectly. However, the rise in the pair was not enough to go above the MA, which was weak in general. Hence, the sterling pound is now in a position where the market does not know which way to go next. The new strengthening of the pound will be completely illogical in the context of the situation in Brexit. Yesterday, the Fed's meeting did not contribute to the decline in the pair amid the decline in GDP forecasts for the coming years and the statement which in fact about ending the key rate increase cycle. It should also be noted that today the meeting of the results of the meeting of the Bank of England will take place. However, no changes are expected in monetary policy but any interesting information can still do.

The key question for the next few days remains: what decision will the EU take at the request of Theresa May to postpone Brexit to June 30? Earlier, information has already been received that Brussels is against the transfer of a "divorce" precisely for this period, although on the whole it is ready to meet London. Moreover, on March 21, a report on retail sales in the UK for February will be published. However, Brexit will be postponed either to May 23 or to a much later date. although generally ready to meet London. However, Brexit will be postponed either to May 23 or to a much later date, although generally, they are ready to meet London.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3184

S2 - 1.3123

S3 - 1.3062

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3245

R2 - 1.3306

R3 - 1.3367

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has begun a round of correction but it was already against a downward correction. Thus, you should wait for the Heiken-Ashi indicator to turn down in order to open short positions with targets of 1.3184 and 1.3123.

Purchase orders will again become relevant not earlier than breaking of the MA and the level of 1.3245. In this case, the bulls will again seize the initiative on the market and the first target levels in trading longs will be the levels of 1.3306 and 1.3367.

It should be noted.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI is a blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is on the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil is likely to continue falling despite OPEC and sanctions

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Oil could not stay at the highs of 2019 which were reached during the previous session. But, generally speaking, the markets remain relatively tough against the background of supply cuts led by OPEC and the US government sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Futures for WTI crude oil in the United States were worth $ 60.11 per barrel, losing 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, while at the beginning of the day WTI reached its highest level since November 12. Brent crude oil traded at $ 68.54 per barrel, which is close to $ 68.69 per barrel at the beginning of the session, the highest level since November 13. Since the beginning of 2019, oil prices have risen by almost a third due to a reduction in OPEC supplies, as well as US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Oil production in OPEC fell from a peak of mid-2018, 32.8 million barrels per day to 30.7 million barrels per day in February.

Venezuelan exports to the United States completely stopped. Exports of Iranian oil also declined remarkably. States seek to reduce oil exports from Iran by about 20 percent, to below 1 million barrels per day, demanding that importing countries reduce purchases in order to avoid US sanctions.

Oil stocks in the US last week fell by almost 10 million barrels, helped by high demand for export and refining. Export growth is associated with a sharp increase in US oil production, which last week returned to a record level of 12.1 million barrels per day, which makes America the largest producer in the world. The United States was able to outrun both Russia and Saudi Arabia.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD Trading system "Regression Channels" on March 21. Fed statements created pressure on the US dollar

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 210.0263

On Thursday, March 21, the EUR/USD currency pair made a strong upward breakout as part of the continuing uptrend. The Federal Reserve has left the key rate unchanged but lowered GDP forecasts for 2019 and 2020. They also stated that the rate hike is likely in 2019 amid fears of a slowdown in the country's economic growth. Thus, it was precisely the open statement in 2019 that was no longer enough to rely on monetary policy tightening, which provoked the sale of the American currency. By and large, no more important information from the Fed has been received but Donald Trump can rejoice. He has long criticized Jerome Powell for raising the key interest rate too quickly, which makes the dollar more expensive but Trump opposes and complicates the servicing of public debt. Euro currency broke through the trend line yesterday, which connected several lower peaks at once. At the moment, we can assume makes that the global downward trend of the euro has broken. Of course, as before, a lot will depend on the nature of the fundamental news in the coming months. The EU economy still looks much weaker than the American one. Nevertheless, the euro received certain chances of forming an upward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1322

S2 - 1,1292

S3 - 1.1261

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1383

R3 - 1,1414

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement. Hence, significant targets for long positions will be at 1.1444 and 1.1475. Heiken Ashi's reversal will indicate a downward correction round.

Sell positions will become relevant not earlier than the fixation of the pair below the moving average line with targets at 1.1322 and 1.1292, given that the trend of the pair will change to downward.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is on the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (March 21)

The currency pair Euro / Dollar for the last trading day showed an extremely high volatility of 112 points, in comparison with the previous days, having as a result of pulsed candles. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the sluggish market has been replaced by active growth, reaching as a result of the resistance level of 1.1440. Considering the chart in general terms, we see significant growth, in a little less than two weeks the quote jumped from 1.1180 to 1.1440, which is already alarming traders. Information and news background had a whole layer of information. We will start with the most anticipated event of the week - the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations. Dear and beloved Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference that this year they will not raise the interest rate, but a one-time increase is planned for 2020. At the same time, the head of the Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the volume of asset repurchases from May, and already in September of this year, he wants to stop the repurchase of assets. Naturally, against the background of the above, the dollar was literally spilled on all currency pairs, I think you have already appreciated the jump on the euro / dollar. Go ahead and turn to our beloved Brexit, as here the circus is in full swing.

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Today, the circus tent continues, as Teresa May is in Brussels and there is an active process of discussing the postponement.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that a rebound from the level of 1.1440 has already occurred, which is quite normal against the background of this kind of overheating. It is likely to assume that the downward interest will still remain in the market, where, together with the information background, we can sink to 1.1380-1.1360.

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Based on the data available, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- Positions to buy at this time are not considered due to a strong bearish interest. Consideration of these transactions will be carried out as soon as a point of support is found.

- Traders considered selling positions as soon as the price reached the level of 1.1440 and the deceleration process started. Now, there is a process of conducting the transaction in the direction of 1.1380-1.1360.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short term, the indicators have changed to descending against the background of recovery of quotes. Intraday and mid-term prospects still maintain an upward interest.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 21, was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 44 points. It is likely to assume that due to the information background, volatility can still grow.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1300 **; 1.1214; 1.1120; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Fed moves to a neutral policy

On March 20, the decision on rates was published and kept unchanged to 2.25 - 2.50%.

The Fed has changed and the GDP growth forecast for 2019 was noticeably downward from the range of 2.3-3.5 % to 1.9-2.2%.

The text of the Fed statement emphasized the neutral position of the Fed with the desire to ensure a balance between supporting GDP growth and controlling inflation.

All these suggest that the Fed stopped raising rates for a long period of time and perhaps, the next Fed action will not be a raise but a rate cut.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

How will the dollar behave after the publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting

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The Federal Reserve has abandoned plans to raise rates this year. It was a signal that a three-year campaign to normalize policies could be completed this year. The dollar could not resist after such a decision of the regulator. Investors quickly appreciated the prospects for abandoning the rate cut, and the yield on US Treasury bonds fell to its lowest level since the beginning of 2018. The change in the Fed's rate led to a fall in the dollar to 110.47 yen, which lost 0.6 percent overnight, the biggest drop since early January. The euro climbed to a seven-week high and was trading at $ 1.1424.

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It is worth noting that the markets were ready for such a decision by the Fed, and currencies, including the dollar, behave predictably, which is generally in line with expectations. Now it is necessary to adjust trading strategies in view of the complete absence of a rate increase this year. The central bank also reduced its growth and inflation projections, while raising unemployment projections. In continuation of its pigeon strategy, the Fed will stop cutting its balance in September, a few months earlier than many expected.

The only consolation for the dollar has been that in recent months, central banks around the world have changed their aggressive tone as economic growth has slowed almost everywhere. This need for incentives means that many central banks will not want their currencies to go up against the dollar. Of course, a more cautious tone and lower US economic outlook will limit dollar growth, but it should be kept in mind that with similarly weak growth prospects in other countries, including Europe, China, Australia and Japan, it is doubtful that the dollar will depreciate to a large extent.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for March 21. Euro ready to complete a wave

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Wave counting analysis:

On Wednesday, March 20, trading ended for EUR / USD by 75 bp increase. The Fed, led by Jerome Powell, frankly disappointed the market with words about stopping the increase in the key rate. In addition, the GDP forecast for 2019 was reduced to 2.1% y / y, and for 2020 - to 1.9% y / y. Thus, wave a received a longer view, but is already ready for its completion. In this case, the pair will proceed to the construction of the wave and with targets located near the level of 50.0% on the Fibonacci grid constructed by the size of wave a. The wave may take a more extended form than it is now, but the more likely option is still the beginning of the construction of a corrective wave.

Sales targets:

1.1344 - 38.2% Fibonacci (small grid)

1.1311 - 50.0% Fibonacci (small grid)

Purchase goals:

1.1477 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair supposedly completed the construction of wave a or is close to completion. Now I recommend taking profits on purchases and preparing for short-term small sales with targets located around 1.1344 and 1.1311, which corresponds to 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci, based on building wave b.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for March 21. Briton waiting for the outcome of the meeting of the Bank of England

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Wave counting analysis:

On March 20, the GBP / USD pair fell by 75 basis points, showing complete disinterest in the decisions and plans of the Fed. The pound sterling is most concerned now with the Brexit theme, which has been inexhaustible in recent years. But in it every day there are more and more questions that require an answer. Now, in full swing discussion, the date of Brexit may take for several months. But the European Union does not want to postpone Brexit later than May 23, since then elections to the European Parliament will begin, in which Britain should no longer participate, since it leaves the EU or the EU proposes to transfer Brexit for 2 years. Now, the words are behind the UK, which is already unclear what it wants itself: to leave the EU, stay in it, or "think" for a few more years ... Even the results of the Bank of England meeting can "pass by" the market today.

Purchase goals:

1.3350 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3454 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2961 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern involves the construction of an upward wave with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.3350 and 1.3454, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci. However, there is also a possibility that the upward wave is completed. The wave pattern now does not look completely unambiguous and at any time may require adjustments.

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The dollar fell on the basis of the Fed meeting. Did the regulator back up?

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On the eve of the US currency fell sharply against the backdrop of the fact that the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), the US left the interest rates unchanged and hinted at the lack of plans to raise them in 2019. Today, the dollar index is recovering after reaching its lowest level since the beginning of February.

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At the moment, the regulator is going to keep the interest rate unchanged this year and increase it once in 2020.

According to experts, if everything is exactly like this, then this will be a landmark moment. Since the 1970s, the Fed has kept the rate three times stable for more than a year after its increase in the previous three months: in 1997, 2000, 2006. At the same time, the next step of the Central Bank was almost always a reduction in the rate.

"The Fed has given the markets even more than they could count on," Goldman Sachs experts stated.

As we can recall, the consensus forecast of economists suggested that at least one rate increase by the Fed will still be this year.

"For 2020, the US Central Bank still laying another increase in the rate, which, according to the forecast, will be the last. However, given the upcoming US presidential elections and the almost guaranteed attempts by Donald Trump to raise his rating at the expense of criticism from the Fed, this seems unlikely, " the representatives of ING believe.

Meanwhile, market expectations have become even more "dovish." Therefore, futures traders raised their estimate of the probability of a rate reduction to almost 50% this year.

Today, many probably wonder: why has the regulator decided to change his rhetoric so drastically?

It is possible that everything will be tied to the already mentioned presidential elections in the United States now, although there is still a lot of time left to them. The head of the White House, obviously, knows that by tradition, only those presidents under which the stock market showed growth, could succeed in electing for a second term. Thus, the Fed must do everything possible for that. In addition, to improve economic performance, the United States is likely to need a weaker dollar to improve economic performance.

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (March 21)

For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a high volatility of 125 points, as a result of having a breakdown of a previously formed cluster. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a long-awaited surf of the range of 1.3200 / 1.3300, which kept us for almost a week. Meanwhile, pulse candles overcame the lower limit, going down to the value of 1.3145, but after that, we saw a pullback to 1.3220, as if embodying the model of "Breakdown & Rollback". On the other hand, the informational news background had a wide platform for discussions. We will begin with the notorious Brexit theme. Earlier, we discussed the refusal of the parliament to vote for the agreement, but now, the focus is on postponing Brexit, and here the most interesting thing begins. The head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, allowed Brexit to postpone for a short time, but only if the British Parliament approves the previously agreed deal with Brussels. Now, perhaps, there is a desynchronization in your mind, as the British Parliament will not go to the approval of the current agreement on the EU, and in the case of such ultimatums there is a hard Brexit waiting for us. In turn, the media are trying to remove this ultimatum from our attention, turning all attention to the disagreement in the release dates of the delay. Prime Minister Theresa May insists on the date of June 30, while European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker insists on May 23. Now, we come back to another key event of the previous day - the meeting of the Federal Reserve Commission on open market operations. At the press conference, Jerome Powell said that the Fed would not raise the rate in 2019, adding that it would stop reducing the portfolio of bonds held by the Fed in September.

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Today is a day with no less activity. In Britain, there are data on retail sales, where a strong decline is expected from 4.2% to 3.3%. At the same time, a meeting of the Bank of England will take place, where the rate will naturally remain at the same level of 0.75%, but Mark Carney can, as always, throw in two cents about current realities. Of course, bringing everything together, do not forget about the information noise in the face of Brexit.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that the hypothetically trading method "Breakdown & Rollback" has a place to exist, along with a charmingly poor informational news background in Britain, we can move down. In this case, I do not exclude a decline to 1.3150-1.3100.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- Positions to buy, if something changes on the information background and bearish interest go to the background, traders monitor clear price fixing higher than 1.3230.

- Traders consider selling positions in terms of mining the value of 1.3220, where they already consider selling positions lower than 1.3200.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is interest in the background of an attempt to work out a previously passed level in the short term. Intraday perspective was replaced by the downward side against the background of the recent impulse move, while the medium-term perspective maintains the upward interest against the background of the past.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 21, was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 42 points. It is likely to assume that due to the information and news background, volatility will remain at a high level.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1,3200 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3130 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Burning Forecast 03/21/2019

On Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve published a decision on rates (unchanged) and the text of the statement.

The main thing: the Fed made it clear that it is very likely that there will be no rate hikes in 2019.

This stimulated the dollar's decline - in the euro, franc and yen. The pound did not participate in the movement - but strengthened in previous days.

EURUSD: A breakthrough of the important level of 1.1425 gives a signal of an upward trend.

We keep buying from 1.1340 - it is possible to buy with a retracement of 1.1375.

Alternative: with a full turn downwards, sell from 1.1175.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 21. A very important day for the pound. Brexit and interest rate

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The Bank of England's decision on the interest rate will be published today, but the more important event will be the EU's provision of postponing Brexit for the UK. Yesterday, a request was submitted to postpone the release from March 29 to June 30. If the delay is approved, the pound can strengthen its position. Consolidating above 1.3223 will be a signal to buy with the aim of testing a high of 1.3266 and 1.3316, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound falls during the first half of the day, only a false breakdown around 1.3182 will make it possible for us to count on a new wave of growth. In a different scenario, it is best to buy on a rebound from the low of 1.3131.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

Sellers of the pound will try to form a false breakdown in the intermediate resistance area of 1.3223, however, the main goal will be a breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.3182, which will lead to selling the GBP/USD towards the lows of 1.3131 and 1.3085, where I recommend taking profits. In case growth is above 1.3223, good resistance levels can be seen in the area of 1.3266 and 1.3316, from where you can open short positions immediately on a rebound. However, you must understand that any news on Brexit can provoke a sharp and strong movement of the pound to any of the parties.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

To resume growth, bulls need a breakthrough of the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3240. In case the pound falls, support will be provided by the lower limit in the area of 1.3170.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 21. The Fed is not in a rush to raise rates in the future

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The euro has increased after the Federal Reserve's statement from yesterday and that they are not in a hurry to raise interest rates. A new upward trend is formed. At the moment, the sellers' task is to return to the resistance of 1.1430, which will lead to the resumption of euro growth with a test of highs around 1.1459 and 1.1487, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario that the pair declines in the first half of the day, long positions can be returned to rebound from a large support of 1.1396, where the moving averages will be tightened by the time of the decline. In case of a larger fall, you can buy EUR/USD on the rebound from 1.1348.

To open short positions on EURUSD it is required:

Sellers need to form a false breakthrough in the resistance area of 1.1430 which will be the first signal for opening short positions with the aim of a decline towards the support area of 1.1396, where I recommend to take profit. However, the main task of the bears will be to break and consolidate below the area of 1.1396, which will lead to a larger sale in the area of a low of 1.1348. In case of further growth in the trend above the resistance of 1.1430, you can look at short positions after updating the high of 1.1459, but it is best to sell on a rebound from 1.1487.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30-day and 50-day moving average, which indicates the bullish nature of the market. By reducing the euro you can buy on the rebound from the 50-day moving average.

Bollinger bands

The growth of the euro will be limited to the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1470, from where you can sell the euro immediately to rebound. The average border in the 1.1400 area may limit the downward correction.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Results of the Fed meeting: Acknowledge the inevitable

According to the results of the next meeting on Wednesday, the Fed leadership managed to surprise the markets. It was expected that the position of the FOMC would soften somewhat in view of the latest macroeconomic data; however, even pigeon expectations were more than met. In the test of the accompanying statement, the key word turned out to be "patience", which should orient investors to a pause in the normalization of monetary policy, however, the profound changes in forecasts do not mean a pause, but a full-fledged reversal.

The forecast for GDP growth rates have been lowered for both 2019 and 2020. This means that Trump's desperate protectionism is not successful, American enterprises will not increase output, and the outcome of the trade war with China may not be as expected. China felt the weakness of the enemy and applies a suffocating technique, because it is the United States that needs the quickest possible completion of the negotiations, not China, and now the delay in the process is playing on China.

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The unemployment rate forecast has worsened for 2019/21, which means admitting that the labor market is saturated and it has nowhere to grow. The weak employment report for February somewhat puzzled markets that were quick to explain the low level of new jobs as seasonal factors, but the Fed seems to think otherwise. If tax reform and trade negotiations will not give impetus to the growth of the American economy, the labor market cannot stay away.

As a result, the inflation forecast is lower. For a long time, it was believed that inflation was about to rise again, since good rates of growth in average wages would also lead to an increase in consumer activity. Obviously, the Fed believes otherwise - the forecast has been lowered, albeit slightly, but also for the next 3 years. The conclusion is obvious - the Fed assumes that the wage growth will be slow.

In the light of the foregoing, there is nothing surprising in the fact that the Fed does not plan a single rate increase in the current year, despite the fact that in December there were two such increases. One increase is planned for 2020, but, apparently, only in order not to bring down the markets - the deterioration of macroeconomic forecasts leaves the hawks no chance.

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This is subject to adjustment; and there are plans to reduce balance. The marginal amount, which is not reinvested at repayment of treasury obligations, has been lowered from 30 to 15 billion. The structure of the balance will also change - as expected, part of the mortgage securities will be gradually replaced by treasury bonds, which means that there will be a recognition of direct budget financing by the Fed. Is it against the background of rising budget deficit and low activity of foreign investors? In the first place of China, such a move indirectly indicates a further slowdown in the inflow of foreign capital.

The markets have not yet fully realized that the turnaround of the Fed's position has taken place. Nordea Bank believes that markets react strangely - in his opinion, the weakening of the dollar is excessive. Danske Bank is confident that the US economy is in good shape, and the dollar will soon resume its growth, as the focus will shift to further easing by the ECB.

Facts suggest something else - the US economy may have passed the peak of growth.

EURUSD

The euro on Thursday will remain the favorite in the pair with the dollar, a break of the downtrend and consolidation above 1.1420 noticeably improve the technical picture for EURUSD. A successful attempt to update yesterday's high of 1.1448 and movement to 1.15 is likely to take place during the day.

GBPUSD

The British pound is one of the few who did not take the opportunity to strengthen against the dollar at the end of Wednesday. The reason is both an increase in concerns about Theresa May's chances of achieving a postponement of Brexit at the opening of the EU summit today, and a worsening of the inflation rate. The base index unexpectedly dropped in February from 1.9% to 1.8%; production prices show weak growth; and housing prices are falling.

Today, the Bank of England will hold a regular meeting, no changes are expected. The pound will remain under pressure, the most likely scenario - a decline to the support area of 1.3080 / 95.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on March 21, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, there is a high probability of continuing the downward movement. The first lower target of 1.3272 is the pullback level of 50.0% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, there is a high probability of continuing the downward movement. The first lower target of 1.3272 is the pullback level of 50.0% (yellow dotted line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review March 21, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the price may continue to move upwards. The first upper target of 1.1481 is the retracement level of 76.4% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price may continue to move upwards. The first upper target of 1.1481 is the retracement level of 76.4% (blue dashed line).

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for March 21, 2019

EUR/USD made a big move higher yesterday after the Fed Chairman press conference yesterday. The speech weakened USD substantially. EUR/USD has now broken above 1.14 and this is a major bullish sign for EUR.

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Red line - major resistance trend line (broken)

Green line - support

Blue line - RSI divergence (broken)

EUR/USD has broken above 1.14 and the red trend line resistance is making a higher high than the one made on February 28th. The RSI also canceled the bearish divergence by providing a higher high. This could be the start of a bigger upward move at its early stages. A pullback as a back test could be expected, but bulls now need to see a higher low being formed and then a higher high. On the other hand bears need to see this trend reverse soon and stay below 1.14. The medium-term outlook is now being challenged to change to bullish as price is breaking above 1.14.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for March 21, 2019

The Federal Reserve kept its official funds rate unchanged at 2.50%. The policy statement reads that there will be no rate hikes in 2019. This agenda was unveiled at the press conference of Jerome Powell. Fed's dovish rhetoric made USD lose further momentum against CHF. USD is likely to extend a decline across the board.

The US Federal Reserve is going to take a patient approach for the whole 2019 year keeping a scope for further increase in 2021. Besides, the FED posed a less aggressive intention to ease a pace of monthly tapering its holdings of Treasury Bonds. Fed's dovish tone dealt a blow to USD which is expected to extend weakness in the coming days. Additionally, FED's balance sheet shrinking is also a part of adjusting to global fluctuations whereas the inflation is also projected to decrease to 1.8%, downgraded from 1.9% in the previous forecast.

Today US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 4.6% from the previous negative value of -4.1%, Unemployment Claims is expected to have positive outcome with a decrease to 226k from the previous figure of 229k, CB Leading Index is expected to increase to 0.1% from the previous value of -0.1%, and Natural Gas Storage is expected to grow to -49B from the previous figure of -204B.

On the other hand, Switzerland released positive reports in PPI and Trade Balance. So, CHF managed to gain impulsive momentum over USD. Today, a SNB Monetary Policy Statement and Libor Rate report are going to be published. The Libor rate is expected to be left steady at -0.75%. Moreover, a SNB Press Conference will provide further hints about assessment of Switzerland's economy. The overall tone is most likely to be hawkish according to recent economic projections.

Meanwhile, USD is licking its wounds following the dovish policy update from the FED. On the other hand, CHF has been firm in light of the recent economic reports ahead of the SNB policy meeting today. To sum it up, the pair could trade with higher volatility today. Besides, CHF is most likely to gain further momentum over USD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading at the edge of 0.9850-0.9920 support area from where a daily close below the area is expected to lead to further bearish pressure with a target towards 0.9500-50 support area. As the price remains below 1.00 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Trading plan for 03/21/2019

Just one look at the single European currency is enough to understand that something has happened. And it really happened. During a press conference, which followed immediately after the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations, Jerome Powell not only confirmed the expectations of many market participants, but also presented an unexpected surprise in the spirit of a recent gift from the European Central Bank. So, as expected, the Federal Reserve will not raise the refinancing rate this year. However, the regulator clarified its future plans and announced one rate hike next year. Also, the chief of the Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the volume of asset repurchases from May, as planned earlier. However, they plan to stop the repurchase of assets in September. In other words, following the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve took measures to mitigate its monetary policy. Moreover, it was much more than expected, which affected the dollar.

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The situation is somewhat different with the pound, which seems to have not taken notice of either the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations, nor its own macroeconomic statistics, which showed an increase in inflation from 1.8% to 1.9%. Naturally, it's all about a triple damned Brexit.After all, no one understands what will happen next. London is asking Brussels to postpone the resettlement date from the EU, so that they still have time to come to an agreement that will be arranged by the House of Commons. But Europe, in the form of Donald Tusk, is prepared to give a delay only if the United Kingdom accepts the enslaving agreement, which the British MPs have already rejected twice. However, in the media, this news is not particularly exaggerated and focuses on the differences between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker regarding the date of delay. The British prime minister wants to postpone the issue until June 30, while the head of the European Commission calls for May 23. But this is not important, since it does not matter what date will be set, because Europe itself does not intend to change the text of the agreement, which the United Kingdom does not like at all. 3EdwtTPH05q-RqngZmLK-XcKENc4h1ySgussLbQu

Today, interesting macroeconomic data will be released in the UK and we are talking about retail sales, the growth rate of which might fall from 4.2% to 3.3%. In addition, the Board of the Bank of England will hold their meeting on monetary policy today, and given the uncertainty around Brexit and the increasing risks of a "hard" exit, it is unlikely that Mark Carney will be able to tell us something optimistic. Again, there will be terrible tales about the severe consequences for the British economy and horror stories about its parity with the dollar. Obviously, this does not add optimism. We are also waiting for a decrease of as much as 8 thousand in the total number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. And - that the number of primary that repeated applications for unemployment benefits should be reduced by 4 thousand.

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By taking an active interest upwards, the euro/dollar currency pair reached a level of 1,1440, where it formed a slowdown. It would be likely to assume that after this kind of rally we should expect a pullback towards around 1.1400-1,1390.

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The pound/dollar currency pair was temporarily concentrated near the recent cluster of 1.3220, forming a slight slowdown. Likely to assume a temporary turbulence in the limits of this value of 1,3220, with the prospect of further declines.

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Elliott Wave analysis of Bitcoin for 21/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The BTC/USD pair has completed the wave (a) of the move up and now is unfolding wave (b). The recent top at the level of $4,101 might be the top for the wave (b), so if the market will break through it, the next target is seen at the level of $4,122 and the wave (b) top will be invalidated. Any price movement above the level of $4,122 will invalidate the current bearish outlook and will make the spike to the level of $4,246 more possible.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $4,456

WR2 - $4,282

WR1 - $4,180

Weekly Pivot - $4,000

WS1 - $3,897

WS2 - $3,712

WS3 - $3,614

Trading recommendations:

Due to the unfinished corrective cycle in the wave (b) and (c), the sell orders should be placed as close as possible to the level of $4,101 with a protective stop loss above the level of $4,122. Any breakout above this level invalidates the bearish outlook.

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The Fed ended the cycle of raising interest rates

The decision of the March Fed meeting was not only to leave interest rates unchanged but also a signal that there will not be any increases this year.

It happened on Wednesday when many in the markets were expecting and perhaps deeply wanting the decision of the American regulator to stop the cycle of raising interest rates. In the communique of the bank, it was reported about the need to show "patience" in an effort to tighten monetary policy this year since inflation remains restrained. Economic growth signals its weakening while the labor market will remain strong. The regulator made it clear that this year one should not expect the promised increase in interest rates but one may be implemented in 2020. In fact, the American Central Bank and its leader commented after the meeting, stating that the current cycle of interest rate increases, which started under the previous leader Janet Yellen in 2015 was over.

The American stock market reacted ambiguously to this news. The Fed has signaled that it expects a decline in economic growth, which means that this process may continue and smoothly turn into a recession and in turn, becomes a negative signal for investors. The stock market will now monitor very closely the incoming economic data and if he sees that the inhibition will continue, the shares of the companies will continue to sell on the market. In this case, the question arises: will the Fed renew some incentive measures to support the local stock market? For the reason that there will be a new presidential election in 2020 wherein Donald Trump wants to run for a second term?

It is likely that the Fed will have to find a way to support the stock market with some new incentives, following the example of how the Chinese began to do this. In this case, the US dollar, could break out of the trading range and be under strong pressure in the medium and long term.

As for its nearest possible behavior, we believe that the negative dynamics can continue if the outgoing data of US economic statistics show a weak dynamic.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading above 1.1395 after strong growth on the eve. The pair may adjust down to this point. If it resists, the price will push off from it and continue to rise to 1.1480.

The USD/JPY pair can be adjusted to the level of 110.85 after a strong fall. If it resists and such a probability remains, the pair can turn around and test the level of 110.40 again and go even lower to 110.00.

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Technical analysis for Gold for March 21, 2019

Gold price did not break below $1,300 yesterday and with Dollar weakness has broken above short-term resistance at $1,312. Price is closing in on our first target and important Fibonacci resistance at $1,322.

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Red line - bearish divergence

Red rectangle- short-term resistance (broken)

Blue rectangle - short-term target

Gold price is trading very close to our target of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We warned that a break above $1,312 would open the way for a move towards $1,322. Despite the new high in price, the RSI did not follow. This is a bearish divergence. This is just a warning and not a reversal signal. Key support is now found at $1.301-$1,298. A four-hour close below this level will most probably push Gold price below $1,280-70. As long as price is above $1,300 bulls remain in control of the short-term trend. $1,332 is also another major resistance. Breaking above it will open the way for a push towards $1,350-60.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 21, 2019

EUR/USD

The results of yesterday's Fed meeting disrupted plans for market participants who are already prepared to sell the euro. FOMC members have specifically expressed their plans for the rates - an increase is not expected for this year and there can be only one increase in 2020, by 0.25%. The Fed also decided to complete the balance sheet reduction by October of this year, which is also a "soft" measure of monetary policy. As a result, the euro grew by 73 points, bringing the technical picture in a highly unstable state.

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To resume the euro's decline, the price must return to the accumulation range, from which growth occurred (1.1324/60), but a more accurate signal can be obtained after the price leaves the four-hour MACD line. The marlin oscillator, being a leading indicator on H4, does not provide any clarity; the existing hint of divergence can be easily modified into a local discharge with subsequent growth. It remains to wait until the market itself shows its intention through signal levels.

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Elliott Wave analysis of Ethereum for 21/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The ETH/USD has finally made a move and has broken above the short-term trendline resistance around the level of 137.00. Despite the breakout, the rally after the breakout was not that strong and the price is now again trading in a narrow range with the nearest target seen at the level of 139.63, which is the lower boundary to the technical resistance. The nearest technical support at the level of 134.68 has already been tested, but this is not the end of the down move as the wave (c) is still being made. The next target is seen at the level of 127.85 and this bearish bias is valid as long as the orange trendline is not violated.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 162.50

WR2 - 153.11

WR1 - 146.18

Weekly Pivot - 134.66

WS1 - 129.36

WS2 - 120.05

WS3 - 112.99

Trading recommendations:

The bearish wave progression to the downside has still not been completed, so only sell orders should be placed as close as possible to the level of 140.89 with a target seen at the level of 134.89 and if this level is violated - at 127.85. Please notice, the trendline (marked in orange) cannot be violated, otherwise, the scenario will be updated.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 21/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made another lower low at the level of 1.3145 as the market is slowly continuing the corrective move down towards the level of 1.3012. Despite the move down the volatility remains subdued and no major breakout occurred yet. The momentum is now bearish -to - neutral but can pick up if the volatility will increase. The longer time frame trend remains bullish, so the bias is still to the upside and the main technical resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3362 and 1.3379.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3917

WR2 - 1.3636

WR1 - 1.3473

Weekly Pivot - 1.3224

WS1 - 1.3055

WS2 - 1.2794

WS3 - 1.2638

Trading recommendations:

The market is still in a consolidation phase, so it will be better to wait for a trading setup after the consolidation terminates. The best one would be a breakout in either direction, but due to the fact that the trend is still up, traders should prefer to buy in the local corrections and wait for the market to resume the up move. Only a sustained breakout below the level of 1.2959 would invalidate the short-term bullish bias and deepen the correction.

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