EUR/AUD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 10, 2018

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In April, the EUR/AUD pair expressed a significant bearish movement that extended between the price level of 1.6110 down to 1.5280.

Since June 6, the pair has been trending-up above the depicted uptrend on the H4 chart. This depicted bullish movement was initiated around 1.5280.

Recently, the evident bearish pressure was initiated around 1.5880. This led to a bearish breakdown of the depicted uptrend allowing the current bearish decline to occur towards 1.5710.

Please note that the price zone 1.5750-1.5650 constitutes a prominent demand zone corresponding to a previous consolidation range that goes back to February 2018.

Daily candlestick closure below 1.5750 (38.2% Fibonacci level) enhances further bearish decline towards 1.5650-1.5580 (near 50% Fibonacci level) where bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry should be anticipated.

On the other hand, re-consolidation above 1.5750 enhances further bullish momentum initially towards the recent highs around 1.5800.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 10, 2018

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until the bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.

Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears That's why bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for a valid SELL entry.

The quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6800 where a false bearish breakdown occurred. This allowed temporary bearish movement to occur towards 0.6680. However, the pair failed to maintain enough bearish momentum.

Instead, evident signs of bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 again.

Trade Recommendations:

Currently, the price zone 0.6780-0.6820 constitutes a prominent demand zone to be watched for BUY entries with potential bullish targets around 0.6900-0.6980. Any breakdown below 0.6750 invalidates this bullish scenario.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 10, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Shortly after, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established. However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, further bearish momentum below the price zone was expressed in the market.

In June 2018, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered significant bearish rejection which led to bearish decline towards 1.1500.

The price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent bullish demand where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped inside a consolidation range between the depicted key-levels 1.1520 and 1.1800 until breakout occurs in either direction.

Please note that early signs of bearish rejection around 1.1800 are already manifested on the chart. That's why, further bearish movement towards should be expected towards 1.1670 initially.

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Global macro overview for 10/07/2018

Global macro overview for 10/07/2018:

The UK industrial data disappoints

The data set from Great Britain is slightly unsatisfactory. In May, industrial output unexpectedly fell 0.4% m/m against an expected increase of 0.5%. Production output also fell less, growing by 0.4% (exp. 0.7%). The statistical office also started monthly publications on GDP dynamics - in the three months to May, GDP increased by 0.2%, in line with expectations.

Industrial output is a measure of the manufacturing output of the energy sector, factories, and mines. Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of UK industrial activity. Industry accounts for about a quarter of the overall GDP. Because industrial production accounts for most of the volatility in the GDP, foreknowledge of trends in manufacturing goes a long way in forecasting UK output. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion, healthy for the Pound. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation. In times of inflation, the Bank of England may raise interest rates to control growth.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the data were released the market slid from the level of 147.80 to 147.20, but the price is still trading inside of the rising channel. The next technical support is seen at the level of 146.62 and then at 146.02. The momentum remains strong, but there is a visible bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator, which suggest the short-term pullback is still on the table. Please keep an eye on the technical resistance zone between the levels of 148.11 - 147.79 as any breakout higher is bullish.

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Global macro overview for 10/07/2018

The German ZEW index was weaker than anticipated by the global investors. The outlook assessment disappointed with a worse result: -24.7pts. (versus - 18.9 points expected). The current assessment was also worse (72.4 points versus 78.1 points expected).

There are no major changes on the European market. Investors cannot decide which way to go. CAC40 is still the strongest (0.3 percent). The values of DAX and FTSE100 indexes increase by 0.1%. IBEX35 (-0.3 percent) further in the red.A better mood prevails in the US futures market. A few hours before the start of the session in the US, Dow Jones and Nasdaq are growing 0.2%. S & P500 increases 0.1 percent. Among the main Asian market indices, the best day was Nikkei225 (0.7 percent) and Shanghai Composite Index (0.4 percent). The value of the Hang Seng index remains at the level of Monday's closing.

The US dollar is gaining relative to major currencies. EUR/USD falls by more than 0.2% to 1.1720. USD/JPY is growing by 0.3% to the level of 111.20.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the ZEW data were released the market dropped towards the technical support at the level of 1.1675 after the local lower high was made at the level of 1.1790. The momentum is weak and points to the south, so is the stochastic indicator, so further slide towards the level of 1.1675 or even 1.1630 is expected.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 10, 2018

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Overview:

The pivot point is seen at the point of 1.3190 on the H1 chart. The USD/CAD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.3190, which represents the double top on the H1 chart. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3190 to the bottom around 1.3130. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3227 followed by 1.3190, while daily support is seen at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3093. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still trapping between the levels of 1.3227 and 1.3093. Thus, we expect a range of 137 pips in coming hours. The first resistance stands at 1.3227, for that if the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3227, the market will decline further to 1.3130. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.3093 in order to test the second support (1.3093). On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.3257 (50% Fibonacci retracement levels), then this scenario may become invalidated.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 10, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.1785. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.1785 to the bottom around 1.1705. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.1694, the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 1.1752, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the veracity of a downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the first support at 1.1694, the market will decline further to 1.1623 in order to test the weekly support 2. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.1752 with the first target at 1.1663 and further to 1.1566. However, stop loss is to be placed above the level of 1.1810.

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BITCOIN Analysis for July 10, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite indecisive recently. BTC price is expected to trade higher above $6,500 with a daily close. The price has again surprised market participants with impulsive bearish pressure today. Being held by the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line, there is still a possibility that the price may surge higher with a target towards $8,000. However, having a bigger Kumo Clloud to work as resistance may be the biggest threat for the bulls under the current market conditions. As the price remains above $6,000 support area with a daily close, the bullish pressure is expected to push BTC higher.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for July 10, 2018

USD/JPY has been quite corrective and volatile at the edge of 110.50 area earlier, which is currently quite impulsive with the bullish momentum recently heading quite quickly towards 112.00 area. Though JPY has been quite positive with the recent economic reports but it failed to sustain the momentum to gain further against USD in the process.

Today JPY M2 Money Stock report was published unchanged as expected at 3.2% and Prelim Machine Tools Orders decreased to 11.4% from the previous value of 14.9%. The mixed economic report did prove as a setback for the JPY but without any high impact economic report on the USD side, current gain is completely assumed to be based on the JPY weakness.

On the USD side, after the recent NFP Economic report published with dovish results last week, USD has been quite weak recently. Today USD NFIB Small Business Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 105.6 from the previous figure of 107.8 and JOLTS Job Opening report is going to be published with an increase to 6.88M from the previous figure of 6.70M.

As of the current scenario, despite having any high impact economic reports to be published this week USD has already gained a good amount of momentum against JPY which is expected to continue further until JPY comes up with better than expected economic results in a consistent basis.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite impulsive with the bullish gains after being bounced off the 110.50 area with a daily close. Despite the recent deeper pullbacks, the trend has been bullish and expected to push the price higher towards 112.00 area in the coming days. As the price remains above 110.50 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Bitcoin analysis for July 10, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

Recently, Bitcoin has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $6.420. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a breakout of the upward trendline in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on MACD oscillator in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $6.220 and at the price of $5.767.

$6.770 Intraday resistance; $6.220– Intraday support; $6.220 – Objective target 1;$5.767 - Objective target 2;

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Analysis of Gold for July 10, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,253.00. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a potential completion of downward correction (abc flat), which is a sign that selling at this stage looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence in the background, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the supply trendline to confirm a further upward direction. The upward target is set at the price of $1,264.90.

Resistance levels: R1: $1,265.20R2: $1,271.50R3: $1,275.40

Support levels: S1: $1,254.60S2: $1,250.20S3: $1,244.40

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for July 10, 2018

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Recently, GBP/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3179. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a broken upward trendline in the background and potential completed flat upward correction (abc flat), which is a sign that buying looks very risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportuntiies if you see a valid breakout of intraday bearish flag pattern. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3190 and at the price of 1.3050.

Resistance levels: R1: 1.3345 R2: 1.3435 R3: 1.3510

Support levels: S1: 1.3180 S2: 1.3107 S3: 1.3017

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Trading plan for the European session of EUR / USD pair on July 10

To open long positions for the EUR / USD pair, you need:

In the morning, it's better not to rush into buying the euro. The optimal signal for long positions will be the update of yesterday's lows with a return to the support level of 1.1736 and the main goal of updating this week's high in the area of 1.1789. If the pressure on the euro persists, I recommend that you consider buying after updating the area of 1.1704 or to rebound from 1.1674.

To open short positions for the EUR / USD pair, you need:

The formation of a false breakout at 1.1760 will be the first signal for euro sales with the main goal of breakdown and consolidation below the support level of 1.1736, which will lead to a larger sellout of EUR / USD to the 1.1704 and 1.1674 lows, where fixing profits are recommended. If the euro rises above 1.1760 in the first half of the day, you can sell for a rebound from the resistance of 1.1789.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Review of AUD / USD pair for the week of July 9 via simplified wave analysis

The wave pattern of the H4 graph:

Since January 26, the trend is bearish and the price reached the likely turn in the upper limit of the calculation area. The structure of the wave is not complete.

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The wave pattern of the graph H1:

In the wave of June 6, an average corrective part was formed. Then, the trend of the wave will continue.

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

The rising wave from July 2 reached the lower limit of the calculated resistance zone. In the coming days, a change in the price movement vector is expected.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Short-term trading needs to track to sell the pair. Supporters of trade on higher timeframes should wait for the signals of the completion of the current bearish wave before buying the pair.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7470 / 0.7520

Support zones:

- 0.7250 / 0.7200

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every time frame is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis on EUR/USD for July 10, 2018

EUR/USD has made a pullback towards 1.1730 and held above the upward sloping trend line support. Short-term trend is bullish as price remains above the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud. Big resistance lies at 1.18-1.1820 and in order to reach our higher 1.19-1.20 targets we will need to see new higher highs and higher lows.

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Red line - medium-term resistance

Green line - support

Black line - short-term resistance

The EUR/USD pair has broken above the Ichimoku cloud and the medium-term downward sloping red trend line resistance. Price is making higher highs and higher lows, respecting the upward sloping trend line support. If price continues to hold above 1.1730 we should expect EUR/USD to move towards 1.18 and higher. A break below 1.1730 will open the way for a move lower towards 1.17 first (where the 4-hour kijun-sen indicator is found) and second towards 1.1660 where the 4-hour cloud support is.

Short-term trend is bullish as long as price holds above 1.17-1.1730. A break above 1.18-1.1820 will open the way for a move to 1.19-1.20.

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Technical analysis on Gold for July 10, 2018

Gold price pulled back yesterday and closed below $1,260. This is not a bullish sign but at least for bulls price is still above $1,250 which is the critical short-term support level. Gold bulls want to see more higher highs and higher lows for the precious metal and a break above $1,265 for the big test of the resistance and first target of $1,272.

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Black line - support

Blue line - resistance

Red line - first target

Gold price has pushed back below the break out area of $1,260. This could be a false break out. Bulls need to retake this level soon otherwise we could see a push to new lows towards $1,220 over the coming weeks. A weekly close above $1,265 would be a great sign for bulls. On the other hand bears want to see $1,250 broken.

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Trading plan for 10/07/2018

The night went quietly with slight changes in the value of major currencies accompanied by growing indices. The pound stabilizes after the political storm from yesterday, and the Turkish lira tries to recover from the sharp sell-off related to the controversial changes in the central bank and the FinMin.

Among the major currencies, the Asian session does not bring many changes. Traders can see some strengthening of USD from EUR/USD going down at 1.1740 and USD/JPY higher at 111.10.

In Norway, June CPI inflation was 0.6% against expected 0.5%. The annual price growth amounted to 2.6% vs expected 2.4%. EUR/NOK dived to 9.38 after the decision, although it quickly rebounded to 9.41, more or less at the starting point.Earlier, data on June CPI inflation from China dropped in line with consensus (1.9% YoY), while PPI was higher than forecasted (4.7% vs. 4.5%).The stock market continues to stabilize in a positive envelope. Japanese Nikkei225 grows 0.7% and Hang Seng gains 0.1%. Worse is Shanghai Composite, which loses 0.5%. This is a recovery of yesterday's increases by 2.8%- the biggest daily increase since August 2016.On the commodity market, crude oil gains with the support of information on production disruptions in Canada and Libya. WTI is at USD 74.2.

On Tuesday the 10th of July, the event calendar is busy in important data releases. On Tuesday's macroeconomic calendar, traders will find, among others publication of data on industrial and manufacturing production from Great Britain. The British balance of foreign trade and GDP forecasts according to NIESR. From Germany, traders will get ZEW index values, which is an indicator showing the moods regarding the economic situation in Germany.

GBP/USD analysis for 10/07/2018:

GBP / USD moves just above 1.3230 after a sharp fall from yesterday, when the resignation of Boris Johnson from the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs triggered a flurry of speculation about the crisis in the government and the potential removal of Prime Minister May. So far, the motion of censure has not been filed and the GBP / USD is above the wells (1.3186), but the situation is developing.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The big down candle clearly indicated the weakness of bulls to rise higher towards the swing high at 1.3472. The candle has closed near the technical support zone between the levels of 1.3191 - 1.3217 and now the market is slowly bouncing higher. The momentum remains neutral, but the market conditions are clearly overbought, so the bears might attack the level of 1.3191 again. A breakout lower will directly expose the level of 1.3100 for a test. Poor data from the UK will only add fuel to the fire.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for July 10, 2018

GBP/USD has rejected off the 1.3320 resistance area recently with a daily close which is expected to support the upcoming bearish pressure in the pair. Ahead of the upcoming GDP report to be published today on the GBP side, certain volatility is expected to have an impact on the market today.

Today GBP GDP report is going to be published which is expected to have irregular impact on the market without any forecasted value, Manufacturing Production is expected to increase to 1.0% from previous value of -1.4%, Goods Trade Balance is expected to increase to -11.9B from the previous figure of -14.0B, Construction Output is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.5%, Index of Services is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2% and Industrial Production is expected to increase as well to 0.5% from the previous value of -0.8%. Moreover, today NIESR GDP Estimate report is going to be published with a hawkish expectation from the previous value of 0.2%.

On the other hand, after the recent NFP Economic report published with dovish results last week, USD has been quite weak recently. Today USD NFIB Small Business Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 105.6 from the previous figure of 107.8 and JOLTS Job Opening report is going to be published with an increase to 6.88M from the previous figure of 6.70M.

As of the current scenario, GBP is currently quite hawkish with the upcoming economic reports expectation which if met, GBP is expected to gain certain momentum over USD in the process but any negative outcome of the reports may lead to impulsive USD gains in the coming days of the week.

Now let us look at the technical view. After the recent rejection off the 1.3320 area with a daily close, the pair is currently quite bearish residing at the edge of the dynamic level of 20 EMA. The overall trend is still bearish and expected to continue pushing the price lower towards 1.3050 area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.3320 area with a daily close the bearish bias is expected to continue.

NEAR TERM RESISTANCE: 1.3320

NEAR TERM SUPPORT: 1.3050

TREND BIAS: BEARISH

CURRENT MOMENTUM: CORRECTIVE

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Bitcoin analysis for 10/07/2018

A lot has been said about Bitcoin and its future. Many people have wondered whether the cryptocurrency will rise above its January value or will continue to decline. Here's a summary of how experts have been considering the matter in the last few months.

Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said that Bitcoin "was absolutely a bubble based on the introduction of futures in December and great enthusiasm for this asset". He also insisted that investors should be cautious because interest in cryptocurrency falls. According to him, it "kills" the possibility of new money appearing on the market.

Colas based his statements on trends in Google searches. According to him, Bitcoin recorded fewer searches compared to the end of 2017 - when the cryptocurrency reached a level of around $ 20,000. However, deliberately or not, he failed to touch the fact that interest in the technology underlying Bitcoin is growing.

According to Ran Neu-Ner, there were 27,000 Blockchain startups in 2017. In the first two quarters of 2018, this number has already been exceeded, reaching over 28,000. It is safe to say that interest in this field is far from a decline. On June 28, Neu-Ner said he believed the market would continue to fall:"Now, I bet the market will continue to fall and fall to around $5,350". Neu-Ner also said that "now is a great time to buy" if you believe in Bitcoin and/or Blockchain technology.

Chief economic advisor at Allianz, Mohamed El-Erian, raised the need for a consolidated base of people who "really believe" in Bitcoin. According to him, this is especially important now when prices are falling. He also added that the 2017 cryptocurrency rally was driven by a large number of investors who joined the already-believers in Bitcoin.

He shared his opinion that Bitcoin is a purchase under $ 5,000. El-Erian also said that he sees a future in which digital currencies are strong, but it would be necessary to involve the government in these currencies.

According to Arthur Hayes, the co-founder and CEO of Bitmex, we were able to achieve stability now. He says that with the fall in prices, we see a lot less instability. He describes this as a problem and involves great variability with greater chances of price jump: "You want as much volatility as possible to have the same chance that Bitcoin will reach $ 50,000, $ 100,000 or $ 1,000,000" - he argues. Hayes also maintains that the time needed for potential price increases will be shortened significantly due to the much greater investor involvement in the market. He also stressed that positive regulatory decisions can be a key factor in a sharp rise in prices: "We are dismissed by one positive regulatory decision, perhaps ETF approval by the SEC, to rise to $20,000 or even $50,000 by the end of the year" - he added.

The founder and CEO of a popular cryptocurrency trading company BKCM LLC and active trader Brian Kelly noticed that Bitcoin is not the only long-term investment possible. In June he stated that Ethereum performs slightly better in relation to the relative value. He also noted that while Bitcoin exceeded its lowest value in June 2018, Ethereum did not. "Considering relative value, Ethereum is a bit better than Bitcoin. So if I played long in this market, at this point I would bet on Ethereum" - he explained. Kelly, however, remains bullish in relation to Bitcoin. He also outlined several reasons why the largest cryptocurrency is far from death.

Tom Lee went ahead several months ago and announced the price of $25,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2018. He then repeated his position saying that Bitcoin is still a huge "asset of value" and the technology behind it works really well in terms of digital transactions. Just a few days ago Lee, who is now Managing Partner and Research Manager at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said he still thinks Bitcoin can reach $ 25,000 by the end of the year. His main argument is the growing difficulty in extracting Bitcoins: "The reason why Bitcoin looks really good is that the cost of extracting Bitcoin is about $ 7,000, and the difficulty is growing. So by the end of the year, it will be $9,000" - he says.

Well, everyone has its point of view, but the time and market will tell who was right and who was wrong. Stay tuned!

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is quietly trading inside of the horizontal range between the levels of $6,809 - $6,400, just around the weekly pivot at $6,607. The bulls are too weak to break through the technical resistance at the level of $6,809 (top of the range). The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $6,334 (low of the range). Breakout lower will open the road towards the level of $6,064 and $5,900.

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Technical analysis of EUR/GBP for July 10, 2018

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The EUR/GBP pair at 4-hour charts is still moving in a Bullish bias. This is already confirmed by the price still moving in an up slop channel and above the Moving Average Periode 50; however we've spotted the Divergence from the MACD Histogram with the price, as long as this pair does not break out and close bellow the 0.8799 the EUR/GBP pair will still be in a Bullish bias.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 10, 2018

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(Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 10, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Italian Industrial Production m/m, and French Industrial Production m/m. The US will also release the Economic Data such as JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIB Small Business Index, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1814.

Strong Resistance:1.1807.

Original Resistance: 1.1796.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1785.

Target Inner Area: 1.1757.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1729.

Original Support: 1.1718.

Strong Support: 1.1707.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1700.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, July 10, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y, and M2 Money Stock y/y. The US will release some Economic Data such as JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIB Small Business Index. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.58.

Resistance. 2: 111.36.

Resistance. 1: 111.14.

Support. 1: 110.88.

Support. 2: 110.66.

Support. 3: 110.44.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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The first call for the Fed

The US dollar lost a number of positions to the euro and the British pound, as well as to other world currencies after the release of a weak report on the US labor market, which pointed to an increase in the unemployment rate. Also, a supplementary indicator of average earnings could play an additional pressure, which indicates a low wage growth rate that affects many economic indicators in the future.

According to the report of the US Department of Labor, the number of jobs outside the country's agriculture in June this year increased by 213,000, which was much better than the forecasts of economists who counted on an increase of 195,000.

As I noted above, the growth of unemployment had a negative effect on the rate of the American dollar. According to the same report, the unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 4.0% in June, which could "pause" the Fed's plans to further raise interest rates. Economists expected that unemployment in the US will remain unchanged at 3.8% in June.

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The increase in wages was moderate in June. According to the data, the average hourly earnings increased by 5% to 26.98 dollars, while wages increased by 2.7% in June compared to the same period of the previous year.

On Friday, data was also released on the reduction in the foreign trade deficit from the US in May this year. This happened due to a sharp increase in the supply of soybeans and other export goods. However, the introduction of trade duties on a number of goods from China and Europe will seriously affect this indicator in the near future.

According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, the deficit of trade in goods and services in the US fell by 6.6% in May 2018 compared to the previous month and amounted to 43.05 billion US dollars in May. Exports grew by 1.9% compared to April. Import for the same period increased by 0.4%. Economists predicted that the deficit in May will be 43.6 billion dollars.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the breakthrough of the important resistance level at 1.1720 led to the formation of a new uptrend in the trading instrument with the key objectives of 1.1790 and 1.1840, which buyers will aspire to in the near future. It is likely that to confirm the breakdown of the range 1.1720, a downward correction will be formed. Testing 1.1720 on the volume from top to bottom will be an additional signal to the opening of long positions in risky assets.

The Canadian dollar rose against the US dollar, even though Canada's foreign trade deficit widened in May. This happened due to the fact that the export of cars has declined, and the import of aircraft from the US has grown dramatically.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, the deficit of foreign trade in May 2018 was 2.77 billion Canadian dollars, while economists expected the deficit to be 2.2 billion Canadian dollars. Exports from Canada decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous month and amounted to 48.34 billion Canadian dollars. As I noted above, imports increased by 1.7%, to 51.12 billion Canadian dollars.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for July 9. The euro continues to adhere to the working scenario

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on Friday, the currency pair EUR / USD added about 50 percentage points, remaining thus in the stage of construction of the proposed wave 3, c, 4. If this is the case, then the quotes will continue to rise with targets near the mark of 1.1856, which corresponds to 100.0% of Fibonacci, and higher. The wave c can assume a pronounced 5-wave structure, which allows one to assume the growth of the pair to area 20 of the figure. The construction of wave 5 of the downward trend section is being postponed for an indefinite period.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1440 - 323.6% of the Fibonacci of the highest order

1,1118 - 423.6% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1866 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.2072 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair EUR / USD continues to rise within wave 3, c, 4. Thus, on July 9 I recommend to remain in purchases with targets located near the calculated marks of 1.1856 and 1.2072, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci. Return to sales, I recommend after receiving confirmation of the completion of the entire wave 4. At the moment there is no sign of the completion of the construction of this wave.

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Weekly review of the GBP/USD as of July 9, 2013

As soon as the representatives of the Bank of England Board ceased to tell terrible stories for the night, the pound immediately found many reasons for growth. At the same time, it cannot be said that the pound made any effort to do this. Of course, the business activity index in the manufacturing sector increased from 54.3 to 54.4, and the business activity index in the construction sector from 52.5 to 53.1. The business activity index in the service sector also increased from 54.0 to 55.1. However, the growth rate of housing prices slowed from 1.9% to 1.8%, according to Halifax.

The largest contribution of the pound's growth was made by the labor market data in the United States. Aside from the published report of the US Department of Labor on Friday, a lot of interesting data came out prior this day. Thus, employment increased by 177 thousand against 189 thousand in the previous month. The total number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 35 thousand due to growth in the number of initial applications by 3 thousand, and repeated by 32 thousand. As expected, after such data investors were anxiously approaching the Friday report of the Ministry of Labor. The report showed that the unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 4.0%, but this was due to the fact that the labor force share in the total population increased from 62.7% to 62.9%. Hence, the special concern about the unemployment growth is not worthwhile. Out of agriculture, there were 213,000 new jobs created compared with 244,000 in the previous month. Although the pace of creating new jobs has decreased, they still continue to overlap the growth of workers' hands, resulting the population rate to grow. But the data on the average hourly wage greatly frightened investors, as they remained unchanged, since the increase in inflation, it turns out that salaries are growing more slowly than prices. This is a serious signal to the fact that consumer activity may soon start to decline.

In addition to the labor market data , there were a lot of significant data despite the fact that the week was torn by the celebration of Independence Day. Thus, the business activity index in the manufacturing sector fell from 56.4 to 55.4, while business activity index in the service sector fell from 56.8 to 56.5. As a result, the composite index of business activity decreased from 56.6 to 56.2. Construction costs rose by 0.4%, although they expected growth of 0.5%. Production orders decreased by 0.4% last month, but this time, it was able to increased by the same 0.4%. The total sales of vehicles grew from 16.9 million to 17.5 million. Honestly, if it were not for the labor market data, the dollar will not have such big reasons for the decline.

There is not much data on the UK this week even they will have a serious impact on the market. The main news will be the preliminary GDP estimate for the second quarter, which is expected that economic growth will remain unchanged. If this proves to be true, investors may take it negatively, given recent statements by the Bank of England, as low economic growth rates will not add to the desire of the English Central Bank to raise the refinancing rate. However, the growth rate for industrial production data should accelerate from 1.8% to 2.7%, which can raise investor sentiment, tech as they promise to accelerate economic growth in the near future.

Given that British statistics are expected to be mixed, much attention will be paid to US statistics. Everything starts with the consumer lending data, whose volume could increase from $ 9.3 billion to $ 12.5 billion. Also, data on open vacancies showed its numbers had increase from 6,698 to 6,880 thousand which can raise investor sentiment and reduce fears caused by rising unemployment. The growth in the number of open vacancies inspires hope that people will quickly find a job and the employment situation will quickly return to previous values. Growth rates of producer prices can accelerate from 3.1% to 3.2%, which investors always prefer. But commodity stocks in warehouses of wholesale trade can grow by 0.2%, and this is because they have been growing for the first time in a row. Also, the total volume of applications for unemployment benefits should be reduced by 37,000 due to the decline in the number of initial applications by 1,000 and repeated applications by 36,000. And the main news of the week will be the inflation data, which is expected to accelerate from 2.8% to 2.9%. And although this further widens the gap between the growth rates of average hourly wages and price increases, a confident increase in inflation inspires hope that the Fed will increase the refinancing rate not once but twice at end of the year.

If all forecasts are confirmed, then it is worth waiting for the pound to drop to 1.3150.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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GBP / USD. 9th of July. The British pound takes the opportunity to add in the value

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 114p - 92p - 79p - 71p - 87p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 89p (100p).

The British pound sterling also reacted well to the not the best macroeconomic statistics from the States. Throughout the trading day, traders bought the pound sterling, and there was a hope for a strong correction against the strengthening of the dollar, which began as early as April 17. At the moment, however, the correction still looks rather weak. Despite local failures of the dollar, this currency remains the most attractive in the foreign exchange market for investment. To spoil its position can only escalate the trade conflict between the States and partners. Traders can still pay attention to the fact that in the trade war, as in any other, there are no winners. Each party will incur certain losses. And now only this factor looks like capable of stopping the long-term "dollar" trend. In other respects, the British pound has practically nothing to oppose to the American currency. The Brexit theme is still not exhausted. Carney fears a "tough" scenario, fears a slowdown in the growth of the world economy due to the trade war and does not know when the Bank of England will begin to tighten monetary policy. Macroeconomic statistics from the UK in the first half of 2018 is mostly disappointing. Thus, at any time the downtrend in the pair may well resume. But this requires some kind of push, an event. On Monday, July 9, the calendar of news from Britain and the US is empty. Thus, today's volatility may drop slightly, and the pair - start to adjust.

Trading recommendations:

On Monday, the GBP / USD keeps the upward movement. Thus, now it is recommended to stay in long positions with a target resistance level of 1.3351. The signal to the closing of the long lines will be the turn of the MACD indicator downwards.

Sell-positions with small lots are recommended to be considered if a signal about the beginning of correction is received. In this case, from the maximum of the day, the pair will be able to decrease by 60-70 points, and in the future to develop the critical Kijun-sen line.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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Trading plan for the European session July 9 GBP / USD

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

To continue the growth of the British pound, buyers need a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3334, which from the first will make it very difficult. The only breakdown of this range opens the way to new highs in the area of 1.3383 and 1.3437, where I recommend fixing profits. If the pound is lowered in the morning, long positions can be opened to rebound from support 1.3257 or after a false breakdown from the level of 1.3292.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

An unsuccessful attempt to consolidate at resistance level 1.3334 and return under it in the first half of the day will be the first signal for opening short positions on the pound, with the main goal of reducing to the middle of the channel 1.3292 and updating this week's low at 1.3257. In the case of growth above 1.3334, you can sell the pound for a rebound of 1.3383.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Trading plan for the European session July 9 EUR / USD

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

Buyers today will be aimed in the first half of the day to update the resistance level 1.1785, the consolidation at which opens new highs in the areas 1.1818 and 1.1849, where I recommend fixing profits. In the case of a decline in the euro in the morning, a good support area will be the range of 1.1736.

To open short positions for EUR / USD, you need:

The formation of a false breakout at 1.1785 will be the first signal for euro sales with a view to lowering to the middle of the channel 1.1765 and updating the lower limit of 1.1736, where I recommend fixing the profit. If the euro rises above 1.1785 in the morning, it is possible to sell for a rebound from resistance at 1.1818.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences for July 9. The hegemony of the dollar is over?

4h

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart cleared the correction level of 50.0% - 1.1680 and the growth to the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1771. The bearish divergence in the CCI indicator allowed a small drop, but now the growth process has already been resumed. Quit on July 9 from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.1721. Fixing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the chances of continuing growth towards the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.1852.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of June 14, 2018, and June 21, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the growth of quotations continues in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.1789. The maturing divergence of the CCI indicator is canceled. The fall of the rate of the pair from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop towards the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. There are no new brewing divergences today. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.1938.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Buy a pair of EUR / USD on July 9 will be possible with a target of 1,1852 with a Stop Loss level below the Fibo level of 76.4% if there is a close above the correction level of 1.1771.

Selling the EUR / USD pair will be possible with the target of 1.1721 if there is a retreat from the correction level of 76.4%, with a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1771.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for July 9. The pound sterling takes an example from the euro.

4h

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The pair GBP / USD on the 4-hour chart has increased to the corrective level of 161.8% - 1.3301. The pair's retreat from this level of Fibo will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop toward the correction level of 200.0% to 1.3048. On July 9, there are no signs of divergence in any indicator. Fixing the quotes above the Fibo level 161.8% will increase the probability of continuing growth towards the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.3530.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from March 1, 2018, and April 17, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair GBP / USD performed first growth to the correction level of 100.0% - 1.3314, and then the retreat from this level of Fibo. As a result, quotes performed a turn in favor of the US currency and began the process of falling towards the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.3252. There are no maturing divergences today. The consolidation of the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to count on further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.3386.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of June 22, 2018, and June 28, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

New purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out for the purpose of 1.3386 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 1.3314 if the Fibo closing is 100.0% (hourly chart).

The GBP / USD pair can now be traded with a target of 1.3252 and a Stop Loss order above the correction level of 100.0%, as there has been a retreat from the Fibo level of 1.3314.

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Carefree "Australian" is growing

AUD / USD

The Australian dollar reacted particularly vividly to the weakening of the US dollar on Friday. The price goes straight to the point of coincidence on the daily scale of the balance line and trend Kruzenshtern at 0.7887. The penetration of the level will allow the price to work out the upper limit of the price channel in the area of 0.7548. The signal line of the oscillator Marlin moved into the growth zone.

The growth of the "Australian" is also supported by related markets; Iron ore has risen in price by 1.1%, aluminum by 0.1%. The prices for oil, copper, and meat contracts declined.

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GBP/USD: the pound lives in hope

In July, the GBP/USD pair bounced off the annual lows and in just a few trading days was able to reach the middle of the 33rd figure, continuing to show a bullish sentiment. The greenback attempts to resist, but the pound is moving up, gradually returning the lost positions.

In the last two years, that is, since the historic referendum on the withdrawal of Britain from the EU, the issue of Brexit has traditionally supplanted all other fundamental factors – be it American inflation or the prospect of an increase in the interest rate by the Bank of England. Future relations between London and Brussels are at stake, so traders have been extremely sensitive to any more or less significant news on this topic for the second year.

The events of the last few days were no exception. A new round of "divorce" began on Friday, when Theresa May gathered members of the Cabinet in her country residence to a government meeting. On it, the British Prime Minister announced a renewed course of Brexit, which differed markedly from the previous position line.

The main difference is the preservation of a significant level of integration with the European Union, especially in the business sphere. What exactly is going on, is still unknown, as the "White Paper" (the scenario of future relations with the EU) will be published on July 10. But, according to information from various sources, the proposed regime of bilateral trade with the EU does not significantly differ from the terms of the current customs union. By and large, Theresa May decided to significantly soften her position on the eve of the next EU summit, which will be held at the end of the month.

Such a radical turn was not to the liking of the Minister for Brexit David Davis - he resigned. It is worth noting that Davis was one of the most ardent supporters of the "hard" scenario of the country's withdrawal from the EU, so his departure was positively received by the pound. However, the GBP/USD pair started trading week, albeit from the upward gap, but without rapid growth.

First, traders are confused by the fact of political uncertainty: together with Davis, Brexit Secretary of state Steve Baker and Junior Minister Suella Braverman left their posts. The British press again started talking about the fact that supporters of the hard Brexit in the Conservative party can initiate the process of her resignation because of such a sharp change of course. Secondly, the market is waiting for the publication of the updated "White paper": its text was to be published on Friday, but political events have made their own adjustments, so the content of the fateful document we will know today.

That is why the bulls of the pound/dollar pair are in no hurry to celebrate the victory: despite the optimistic prerequisites, the risk of disappointment still remains. On the one hand, it is unlikely that Theresa May will be dismissed on the eve of key negotiations with Brussels. In the camp of the Conservative Party there are supporters and opponents of the "hard" Brexit, therefore, not all conservatives protested against the decision of the prime minister to maintain a significant level of European integration. Even the traditional critic of the premier Boris Johnson abstained (for the time being) from commenting on Davis's resignation and at the moment did not follow his example. Theresa May, in turn fairly quickly found a replacement for the disgraced minister: Dominic Raab who is now responsible for Brexit in her government, who previously held the post of Deputy Minister for Regional Affairs and Local Government, and was formerly the Minister of Justice.

Personnel decisions calmed the market a little, but the bulls of the GBP/USD still do not rush into the battle: traders first of all want to assess the reaction of the British Parliament to the latest events, and then to assess the prospects of the relationship between Britain and the EU in the context of the updated "White Paper". If after that the prospects of a "soft" Brexit take on a real form, the pound will receive a strong support. Otherwise, the pair will again be under pressure of uncertainty, returning to the area of annual lows.

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In terms of technique, the GBP/USD pair has every chance to re-test the nearest resistance level - 1.3380, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. The next level is almost next to 1.3405 (the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the same timeframe). Having consolidated above the above resistance levels, the pair will have a path to the upper boundary of the cloud, that is, to the area of the 37th figure. But it is too early to talk about this: political events can suddenly turn the pair to monthly and annual lows. London is faced with a choice between "hard" and "soft" Brexit, and the British currency, in turn, will determine the vector of its movement depending on who will win this confrontation.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of July 9

The forecast for July 9:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1889, 1.1861, 1.1807, 1.1771, 1.1718, 1.1684 and 1.1652. Here, we follow the development of the upward cycle of June 28. The continued movement to the top, we expect after the breakdown of 1.1771. In this case, the target is 1.1807 and near this level is the consolidation. The break of the level of 1.1810 should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 1.1861. The potential value for the top, consider the level of 1.1889, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation in the corridor of 1.1861 - 1.1889, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, possibly in the corridor of 1.1718-1.1684 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1652 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1771 Take profit: 1.1805

Buy 1.1812 Take profit: 1.1860

Sell: 1.1716 Take profit: 1.1690

Sell: 1.1682 Take profit: 1.1656

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For the Pound / Dollar pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 1.3422, 1.3368, 1.3329, 1.3274, 1.3246, 1.3211 and 1.3172. Here, we follow the upward structure of June 28. The continued movement to the top, we expect after the breakdown of 1.3329. In this case, the target is 1.3368 and near this level is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top, consider the level of 1.3422, upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, we expect in the range of 1.3274 - 1.3246 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3211 and this level is the key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will have to develop a downward structure. In this case, the target is 1.3172.

The main trend is the development of the ascending structure of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3330 Take profit: 1.3365

Buy: 1.3372 Take profit: 1.3420

Sell: 1.3272 Take profit: 1.3248

Sell: 1.3244 Take profit: 1.3212

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For the pair of Dollar / Franc, the key levels in the scale of H1 are: 0.9942, 0.9914, 0.9897, 0.9862, 0.9849 and 0.9811. Here, we continue to follow the downward structure of June 28. At the moment, we expect the move to the level of 0.9865, after reaching consolidation in the corridor of 0.9865 - 0.9849. The break of 0.9849 level should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement to the potential target of 0.9811, from this level we expect a pullback to the top.

The short-term uptrend, possibly in the corridor of 0.9897 - 0.9914 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9942 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9900 Take profit: 0.9914

Buy: 0.9916 Take profit: 0.9940

Sell: 0.9863 Take profit: 0.9851

Sell: 0.9847 Take profit: 0.9814

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For the pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 112.00, 111.58, 111.39, 111.09, 110.52, 110.25 and 109.96. Here, the price is in deep correction from the ascending structure on June 26. The continued development of the upward cycle from June 26, we expect after the breakdown of 111.10. In this case, the target is 111.39 and in the corridor of 111.39 - 111.58 is the consolidation. The potential value for the top, consider the level of 112.00, after reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The consolidated movement, possibly in the corridor of 110.52 - 110.25 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first potential target is 109.96.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 26, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.10 Take profit: 111.36

Buy: 111.60 Take profit: 112.00

Sell: 110.25 Take profit: 110.00

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For the Canadian Dollar / Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3247, 1.3193, 1.3147, 1.3071, 1.3025, 1.2938, 1.2872 and 1.2768. Here, we follow the formation of a downward structure from June 27. The short-term downward movement, we expect in the range of 1.3071 - 1.3025 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of a pronounced movement to the bottom. Here, the target is 1.2398. In the corridor 1.2938 - 1.2872, we expect a short-term downward movement. The potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 1.2768, the movement to this level is expected after the breakdown of 1.2870.

The short-term upward movement, possibly in the corridor of 1.3147 - 1.3193 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3247 and this level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure from June 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3148 Take profit: 1.3190

Buy: 1.3195 Take profit: 1.3245

Sell: 1.3025 Take profit: 1.2940

Sell: 1.2935 Take profit: 1.2875

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For the Australian Dollar / Dollar pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7600, 0.7555, 0.7538, 0.7502, 0.7478, 0.7427, 0.7402 and 0.7367. Here, we follow the development of the upward structure of July 2. The short-term upward movement, possibly in the corridor of 0.7478 - 0.7502 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.7538 and in the corridor of 0.7538 - 0.7555 is the consolidation. The potential value for the top, consider the level of 0.7600, upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, possibly in the corridor of 0.7427 - 0.7402 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7367.

The main trend is the upward structure of July 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7478 Take profit: 0.7500

Buy: 0.7504 Take profit: 0.7536

Sell: 0.7425 Take profit: 0.7404

Sell: 0.7400 Take profit: 0.7370

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For the pair of Euro / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 132.02, 131.20, 130.64, 129.90, 128.80, 128.34, 127.74 and 127.06. Here, the price has issued a pronounced structure for the upward movement of June 28. The continuation of traffic to the top, we expect after the breakdown of 129.90. In this case, the target is 130.64 and in the corridor of 130.64 - 131.20, we expect short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top, consider the level of 132.02, upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, possibly in the corridor of 128.80 - 128.34 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 127.74 and this level is the key support for the upward structure of June 28.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.90 Take profit: 130.60

Buy: 130.66 Take profit: 131.20

Sell: 128.80 Take profit: 128.38

Sell: 128.30 Take profit: 127.80

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For the Pound / Yen pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 148.80, 148.10, 147.48, 146.67, 145.62, 145.11 and 144.52. Here, the price forms an upward structure from June 28. The continued movement to the top, we expect after the breakdown of 146.67. In this case, the target is 147.48 and in the corridor of 147.48 - 148.10 is the consolidation. The potential value for the top, consider the level of 148.89, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, possibly in the corridor of 145.62 - 145.11 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 144.52 and this level is the key support for the upward structure of June 28.

The main trend is the formation of the upward structure of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 146.68 Take profit: 147.45

Buy: 147.50 Take profit: 148.10

Sell: 145.60 Take profit: 145.14

Sell: 145.10 Take profit: 144.55

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly review of the EUR / USD dated July 9, 2013

It is extremely difficult to get rid of the feeling that the purpose of the ECB is just to reduce the price of the euro, since while representatives of the European Central Bank remained silent, the dollar lost its positions. At the same time, it can't be said about the whole thing in European statistics, which in fact was rather weak. What was particularly amusing was the way in which Europeans report about another decrease in the unemployment rate, as the data itself showed to be unchanged, but a revision of the previous values in the smaller direction led to a reduction in unemployment. However, the growth rate of retail sales slowed from 1.6% to 1.4%, which, of course, few people can please. Nevertheless, it must be recognized that market participants are clearly looking for a reason for the growth of the euro, so, in many respects, its growth was due to data on business activity indices. Although the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector fell from 55.5 to 54.9, the index of business activity in the service sector showed an increase from 53.8 to 55.2. Given the much greater weight of the services sector, the composite business activity index rose from 54.1 to 54.9. Although the indices of business activity do not reflect the real state of affairs in the economy, but only talk about the moods and expectations of business representatives, investors are extremely sensitive to this indicator. Especially when there is no other data.

In any case, it can be seen that there were no special reasons for the growth of the euro, so it's worth looking at what came out in the US. And although the week was torn by the weekend, due to the celebration of Independence Day, last week was rich in macroeconomic data. As well as in Europe, there were data on business activity indices, in particular, the index of business activity in the service sector, which declined from 56.8 to 56.5. As a result, the composite index of business activity decreased from 56.6 to 56.2. So, unlike Europe, there was not much to be pleased about. Although there was a lot of positive news. So, construction costs increased by 0.4%, and production orders for the same 0.4%. Also, the total sales of vehicles increased from 16.9 million to 17.5 million. But all this fades against the background of the most important news that came out in the US, because the first week of each month is accompanied by the publication of a whole data block on the labor market. All began with employment, which increased by 177 thousand, while in the previous month it increased by 189 thousand. Simultaneously, along with the data on employment, there were data on applications for unemployment benefits, the total number of which increased by 35 thousand. In particular, the number Initial applications for unemployment benefits increased by 3 thousand, and worst of all, the number of repeated applications increased by 32 thousand. And all this in advance of the publication of the report of the US Department of Labor.

Speaking about the very report of the Ministry of Labor, its content is extremely ambiguous. On one hand, the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased from 3.8% to 4.0%, and against the backdrop of the fact that 213 thousand new jobs were created outside agriculture. Although 244 thousand were created in the previous month, taking into account the growth rate of the population in the USA, the creation of 200 thousand new jobs a month should not lead to an increase in the unemployment rate. The fact is that the share of the labor force in the total population increased from 62.7% to 62.9%, so that the rise in the unemployment rate should not bother investors. It happened solely due to a change in the demographic composition of the population. However, a huge cause for concern was the data on wages, as the growth rate of the average hourly wage remained unchanged, and now salaries are growing more slowly than the prices in stores. This is an extremely worrying factor, since all the positive from the price increase can evaporate, and a serious decline in consumer activity will begin.

This week, ECB representatives will again perform, with Mario Draghi performing twice already. However, the members of the board of the European Central Bank have already said so many things that now they will have to try hard to surprise the market. It can be said that only a direct statement that the program of quantitative easing will be extended after December will also lead to new shocks in the market. But this is more likely from the field of fairy tales about elves and orcs. So in Europe, it is worth paying attention only to data on industrial production, the growth rate of which should be accelerated from 1.7% to 2.2%.

In the US, there are quite a lot of interesting data that will have a significant impact on the state of affairs in the market. So, the data on the number of open vacancies, which should grow from 6 698 thousand to 6 880 thousand, can reduce fears due to rising unemployment, as people can quickly find work. The number of applications for unemployment benefits should be reduced by 37,000 due to a decrease in the number of primary applications per 1,000, and repeated by 36,000. So all the data on the labor market will clearly be positive for the dollar. However here, the commodity stocks in the warehouses of wholesale trade can show an increase of 0.2%, and given that their growth and so has been going on for more than a month, this is not a pleasant thing. The most important thing is that the inflation data comes out, and their data are preceded by producer prices, whose growth rates should accelerate from 3.1% to 3.2%. Inflation itself can accelerate from 2.8% to 2.9%, and although prices are growing faster than salaries, such an increase in inflation can convince many that the Fed will raise rates twice, before the end of the year.

Given all the forecasts, especially on inflation in the US, it is possible to expect a decline in the euro to 1.1675.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily review of the GBP / USD on 09/07/18. Ichimoku Indicator

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GBP / USD

The pair took advantage of today's upside gap at the opening of the market in order to reach out the most important resistance (1.3309-31). The result of interaction with 1.3309-31 (Weekly Tenkan + Weekly Senkou Span A + day Fibo Kijun) will help determine further plans. When forming a rebound from the levels encountered, the development of the situation will lead to an increase in bearish sentiment. But to restore the downtrend, players should attempt to go much lower and there are plenty supports located on this course (1.3260 - 1.3205 - 1.3144). Therefore, bears would likely limit themselves to reduction in the framework of the current correction. In case of consolidation above 1.3309-31, the main task for players on the rise will be an impulse to enter the daylight cloud. At the same time, it would reliably leave the weekly cloud which will difficult due to the subsequent configuration of the upper boundary of the weekly cloud.

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At the ascent today, an upward target for the breakdown of the H4 cloud has also been worked out. The accumulation levels and targets in one zone confirms the significance of the breakdown of current resistances for the beginning of a new stage movement. The support today is well read at 1.3260 - 1.3205 - 1.3144. As of this writing. the key levels of higher and lower time frames are combined. If the development of the situation leads to the formation of a bearish decline, then these levels may be the boundaries of its completion.

Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning forecast 09.07.2018

Burning forecast 09.07.2018

The euro continues to grow.

Last week, the euro broke through an important level of 1.1725 and was consolidated higher - this is a strong technical signal for growth.

The euro's growth may be caused by some easing of tension in the US trade conflict - China after the first exchange of blows - new negotiations are possible. In addition, markets do not react until the fall in the trade conflict.

We are buying the euro from 1.1725, stop 1.1680, profit 1.1825.

Alternative: We sell the euro from 1.1525.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: "surrender", Merkel can bring the pair to the 20 figure

At the end of last week, the European press was full of headlines that German Chancellor Angela Merkel surrendered in the trade war with the United States, allowing a reduction in tariffs on American cars. Political experts argue about how much this step will affect its rating, given the recent scandals and ambiguous attitude of the Germans to the government's policy.

However, in the aspect of the currency market, experts almost agree that the German leader prevented the escalation of the large-scale trade conflict between Brussels and Washington. An example of the US-China trade war says that the White House is ready to play "to increase", when each symmetrical reaction follows the next move. And if the conflict with China is almost irreversible, given the actions and rhetoric of the parties, Europe still has the opportunity (and the main desire) to prevent escalation.

It is important to note that in the first half of the year, Europe and the US exchanged the first "blows" of an economic nature. Thus, at the end of March, Washington introduced duties on imported steel and aluminum from the European Union and other countries of the world by 25% and 10% respectively (for EU countries, the preferential treatment was effective until June 1), and on June 22 the EU introduced duties of 25% on goods of American exports by 2.8 billion euros. And although after that, officials continued to express tough rhetoric, the real actions of Brussels (and even Washington, too) indicate that the parties are in search of a compromise solution. Last week, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte visited the White House, where he agreed to continue the dialogue in the sphere of tariff policy.

It is worth noting that in the joint press conference of the leaders of the countries, there was a curious incident when Mark Rutte interrupted Donald Trump in words that if the parties do not agree, then the new American fees will still "have their positive". The Dutchman interrupted the speech of the American president with a short "no", adding that the negotiating groups need to find a solution, since there will be no positive from the new fees. This suggests that Europe seriously intends to find a common denominator with the White House and certainly is not interested in excessive adherence to this issue.

By the way, the voyage of the head of the Netherlands government was in its way "intelligent" on the eve of the main event - the visit of the head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker to Washington. According to some analysts, this visit will be a turning point in the trade relations between the Alliance and the United States. Back in late June, Juncker doubted that he would meet with Donald Trump: the fact is that the US Department of Commerce is now conducting an investigation into the possibility of introducing new duties on cars and auto parts. According to the results of the investigation, the department will issue a verdict whether the import of European cars worsens the state of the US economy or not. Next week (July 19-20) hearings will be held on this issue (it is likely that with the participation of EU representatives), and at the end of July, the ministry will announce the results of the investigation.

In view of the above facts, the "conciliatory" statement by Angela Merkel is a very important component for the normalization of trade relations with the US - as much as possible with the incumbent American president. According to some experts, the Ministry of Trade will have fewer arguments for making a negative for the EU (especially Germany) verdict. In this case, Juncker's visit to the White House will take place in the context of mutual concessions, increasing the likelihood of concluding a commercial "armistice" in one form or another.

It is difficult to overestimate the importance of such a scenario for the European currency. The head of the ECB recently particularly actively pointed to the risks of a possible escalation of the trade war between the EU and the States. According to a number of sources, at the last summit of the EU countries he outlined the "apocalyptic" consequences of the conflict: from a decrease in investment attractiveness and ending with a significant slowdown in production.

Therefore, if Brussels and Washington still find a common denominator during the July meetings, the euro will receive significant support throughout the market. In this case, traders will focus on macroeconomic indicators and on the prospects for tightening monetary policy of the ECB. Here, the European currency will also find support: inflation shows a positive trend, and market rumors suggest that the regulator can raise the rate in September next year. Moreover, expensive oil creates the prerequisites for further growth of European inflation, thus supporting the optimism of bulls EUR/USD.

The American currency, in its turn, is still under the influence of negative Non Farms. Growth in unemployment and weak wage growth rates are bad news for dollar bulls. The third rate increase this year is partly taken into account in prices, but the fourth increase is again under big question, considering the protocol of the June Fed meeting. The rhetoric of the members of the Federal Reserve was controversial, especially about the prospects for inflationary growth. Here it is worth noting that this Thursday, US consumer price index will be published - if the indicator does not show "character", then the dollar will remain under the pressure of the fundamental background. The preliminary forecast is not impressive: according to experts, the CPI will remain at the level of the previous month, recording a weak increase (+ 0.2% in monthly terms).

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From the technical point of view, the pair came close to the first, the strongest resistance level - 1.1790 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1). If the bulls can overcome this level and gain a foothold above it, the path will be opened up to the 20th figure (to be exact - 1.1995), since the next level of resistance is the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com