Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 27, 20157

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Fundamental outlook:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.94 versus 97.31 early Friday) after the report on the US durable goods published in March (excluding transportation goods) showed a decline by 0.2% (versus forecast +0.3%), while orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft slid 0.5% (versus forecast +0.3%). USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower US Treasury yields (10-year slipped 3.0 bps Friday to 1.917%) and Japan export sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by demand from Japan importers, ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy, and yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 1.52% to 12.29) as U.S. stocks rose Friday (S&P 500 hit record high 2,120.92 before closing up 0.23% at 2,117.69).

Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is in bearish mode, stochastic turned bearish.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 119. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 118.70. The pivot point stands at 119.70. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.10 and the second target at 120.45.

Resistance levels:
120.10
120.45
120.85

Support levels:
119
118.70
117.35

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 27, 2015

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Fundamental overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade with risks skewed lower. It is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF crosses, negative interest rates, and the threat of CHF-selling intervention by Swiss National Bank. "The Swiss franc is significantly overvalued overall," Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan said Friday. The SNB will monitor exchange rates and intervene in the market to influence monetary conditions, Mr. Jordan said.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is bearish, stochastic is getting bearish mode near oversold levels.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9480. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9440. The pivot point stands at 0.9620. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9670 and the second target at 0.9720.

Resistance levels:
0.9670
0.9720
0.9760

Support levels:
0.9480
0.9440
0.94

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 27, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range. Financial markets in New Zealand are shut for a public holiday on Monday. NZD/USD is supported by the weaker dollar sentiment and positive investor risk appetite. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the comments from RBNZ Assistant Governor John McDermott who said the cash rate would be on hold for some time with an increasing risk of a rate cut and kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross and soft dairy prices.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is falling from overbought levels, but the MACD is still in bullish mode.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7640 and the second target at 0.7685. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7540. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7490. The pivot point is at 0.7575.

Resistance levels:
0.7640
0.7685
0.7740

Support levels:
0.7540
0.7490
0.7435

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 27, 2015

GBPJPYM30.png

Fundamental overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range. It is undermined by the soft USD/JPY undertone and Japan exporter sales and continued impact from less-dovish-than-expected UK Bank of England MPC meeting minutes released last Wednesday, positive investor risk appetite, and sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/JPY is limited by the positive investor risk appetite and demand from Japan importers.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is still positive-biased as the MACD and stochastic are bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and is advancing.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 181.20 and the second target at 181.80. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 179.40. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 178.40. The pivot point is at 180.

Resistance levels:
181.20
181.80
182.45
Support levels:
179.40
178.90
178.50

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EUR/NZD : analysis for April 27, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.4222 in an average volume. The short-term trend changed from bearish to bullish. Be careful when selling at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities after a bearish correction. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe supply in an average volume but with a very weak price action. I had placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the level of 1.4200 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of 1.4085. We also found support around 1.4220 (recent swing high like support).

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4371

R2: 1.4408

R3: 1.4469

Support levels:

S1: 1.4250

S2: 1.4212

S3: 1.4150

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling EUR/NZD and watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement.


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Gold : analysis for April 27, 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,175.07. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a supply in a ultra high volume (selling climax), which is a sign that selling at this stage looks risky. I had placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support level and got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at $1,174.00. I had also placed Fibonacci expansion levels to find potential bullish objective points. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the level of $1,224.00. Major resistance is seen around the level of $1,220.00. The short-term trend is neutral. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of $1,174.00 in an high volume, we may see potential testing the level of $1,147.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,179.37

R2: 1,179.73

R3: 1,180.30

Support levels:

S1: 1,178.23

S2: 1,177.80

S3: 1,177.00

Trading recommendations: Selling climax according to the daily time frame, selling gold looks risky.


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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for April 27, 2015

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Overview:

  • The AUD/USD pair set below the double top (0.7840) since yesterday. On the H4 chart, the resistance had already been placed at the level of 0.7851 which coincides with the 78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels. Also, it should be noted that the price has formed the strong resistance at 0.7851. Furthermore, the AUD/USD pair has still been moving between 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels and 78.6% at the same time frame. Additionally, the AUD/USD pair will be able to fall from the level of 0.7851 in order to extend further to 0.7783 today. Hence, there is a probability that the market will start showing signs of bearish market again to indicate the bearish opportunity from the level of 0.7851 to 0.7840 targeting the strong support around 0.7783 and 0.7752. Meanwhile, bears were forced to pull back at the level of this area. Therefore, this level will form strong support at 0.7687 to indicate a bullish opportunity above that line. So, it will be a good sign to buy in the short term above the level of 0.7687 with the first target at 0.7780 and it might resume to 0.7840.

Observations:

  • Stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. So, your stop loss should be around 55 pips for each position.
  • Major support is seen at 0.7687.
  • Major resistance has already been placed at 0.7850.
  • We expect a new range about 163 pips in coming days.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 27, 2015

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Overview:

  • The resistance got broken at the level of 0.9537 and turned to support since the April 17, 2015. Also, it should be noted that the level of 0.9537 represents the ratio of 11.8% Fibonacci retracement levels and the double bottom set at the point of 0.9494. Moreover, the area between 0.9494/0.9537 is going to become support this week. So, according to previous events, the price of USD/CHF pair will move between the levels of 0.9537 and 0.9635. Additionally, the psychological level has been set at 0.9581 because it acts as minor resistance. Also, the double top will be set at 0.9635. Therefore, it will be of the sagacity to buy above the level of 0.9537 with the first target at 0.9581. Equally important, the USD/CHF pair is going to try to break the minor resistance at 0.9581 to call for the bullish market above 0.9630. In consequence, the price is likely to move towards the double top (0.9535). On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, thus it will be of the foresight to set your stop loss at 0.9480.
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Daily analysis of USDX for April 27, 2015

The Index remains solid in the current bearish bias, as it could reach the support zone around 96.30. By the way, the bullish risk is still there on the daily chart, because the USDX is still on an overall bullish consolidation above the 200 SMA. In the short term, if bulls are enough strong, the index is expected to rise to the resistance level at 97.83.

USDXDaily.png


On the H1 chart, the USDX continues to look for solid floor at the support level of 96.83. The bearish outlook is still solid in the lower timeframe, as the index is still trading below the 200 SMA, which should act as strong dynamic resistance. We could see bullish moves until the resistance level of 97.52 during this week.

USDXH1.png


Daily chart's resistance levels: 97.83 / 99.94

Dailychart's support levels: 96.30 / 95.00

H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.18 / 97.52

H1 chart's support levels: 96.83 / 96.34



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.83, take profit is at 96.34, and stop loss is at 97.32.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for April 27, 2015

In the daily chart, GBP/USD is tying to reach the resistance zone around 1.5238 in the near term. The bearish force seems getting stronger at the current levels and eventually we could see a break of the support level at 1.5125. In this case, GBP/USD is likely to test the 1.4976 level in the medium term. It should be noted that the 200 SMA is turning flat.

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GBP/USD is moving in favor of a pullback towards 1.5185, as the pair is trying to reach the support at 1.5096. The short-term outlook could be bearish, but this would be invalidated by the breakout of the resistance zone around 1.5161, because GBP/USD will rise until the 1.5245 level. The MACD is at negative territory.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5125 / 1.5238

Dailychart's support levels: 1.4976 / 1.4820

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5161 / 1.5245

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5096 / 1.5025



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5161, take profit is at 1.5245, and stop loss is at 1.5082.

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#USDX technical analysis for April 27, 2015

The Dollar index is trading above critical support. There is a possibiliti for Head and Shoulders pattern to be formed. Confirmation will come once a break of the neckline is made at 96.70. A daily close below that level will put the recent low to the test and probably push even towards 94-93.

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Green line = neckline

Blue line= price projection if neckline is broken

The Dollar index is trading above short-term and medium-term important support of 96.70. The recent low at 96.20 is also a big support level. So, bulls will need to be extra cautious if they see these two levels being broken. A deeper dollar correction could push the index towards 94 or even 93.

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Orange lines= bullish channel

The rice has broken the weekly bullish channel as shown in the chart above. The weekly candle has also closed below the tenkan-sen indicator and this is another bearish signal. Target of such break down is the kijun-sen (yellow line) at 94. Bulls need to be very cautious as we might see a deep dollar correction if week closes below 96.

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Gold technical analysis for April 27, 2015

Gold price had broken the triangle pattern and pushed below $1,180 on Friday producing a new sell signal. Now, the price is testing the breakdown area. As long as the price is below $1,200, bears are in control with $1,130-40 as 1st target area.

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Blue lines = triangle pattern

Gold price has broken the lower boundary of the triangle pattern. The price is below the Ichimoku cloud. It is making lower lows and lower highs in the 4-hour chart. Short-term support is at $1,175, which is the last weeks's low. The price is back testing the breakdown area. It is testing the triangle from below.

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The weekly chart does not look good either. After 3 weeks, the red line indicator tenkan-sen was broken. The weekly candle closed below the tenkan-sen and this is a new bearish signal. Overall the weekly chart is bearish as price has reversed from the 50% retracement, price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and below the kijun-sen. If $1,130 is broken I expect to see a push as low as $1,000 or even $900.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 27, 2015

General overview for 27/04/2015 08:30 CET

After hitting all the previous week's targets, including the 78%Fibo at the level of 130.10, the market stalled a little and declined to the level of 128.82 that will act as intraday support now. It is worth to mention that the decline from the level of 130.10 is in three waves. This is why there might be another rally up in the alternative labeling presented on the chart before the overall corrective cycle will be completed. Please notice that even a break out below the intraday support is still not bearish in this count as the key level is the weekly pivot support at the level of 127.87. Only a clear break out below this level will result in last swing low test.

Support/Resistance:

126.07 - Swing Low

126.33 - WS2

127.86 - WS1

128.82 - Intraday Support

128.97 - Weekly Pivot

130.10 - Intraday Resistance

130.51 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider to open sell orders only if the intraday support level is clearly broken, with entry at the level of 128.80, SL at the level of 129.10 and TP at the level of 1.2786 (3:1 R/R trade).

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Technical analysis of Gold for April 27, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold dropped lower to $1,175.00 on Friday before pulling back higher. The metal is seen to be trading around $1,182.00/83.00 for now. The hourly chart view has been depicted here, indicating interim support at $1,175.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,198.00 followed by $1,204.00/08.00 and higher up respectively. If the metal drops below $1,175.00, it should test the levels of $1,171.00/73.00 at least, which is fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between $1,140.00 and $1,224.00 respectively. A drop below $1,170.00 could prove to be extremely bearish though.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop at $1,170.00, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 27, 2015

General overview for 27/04/2015 08:15 CET

The golden trend line is still providing dynamic resistance for the price and only an impulsive break out higher will be considered bullish (short-term). Nevertheless, the market hasn't completed wave (c) blue to the downside, so the mentioned bullish break out might be just a part of wave b green and then market should reverse. The price is still trying to complete wave 4 green to the downside as a part of a larger degree corrective cycle.

Support/Resistance:

1.2085 - WS1

1.2102 - Intraday Support

1.2187 - Intraday Resistance

1.2193 - Weekly Pivot

1.2285 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening buy orders only if the golden trend line is clearly broken, with entry at the level of 1.2231, SL at the level of 1.2187 and TP at the level of 1.2285.

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Technical analysis of Silver for April 27, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver had dropped to the level of $15.60 on Friday but it recovered to $15.85 as seen here. The metal produced a bullish morning star pattern on the 4-hour chart view indicating a potential rally ahead. It is hence recommended to remain long with risk below $15.30. Bulls might be poised to drag prices higher until the metal remains above $15.30 from here on. A push through the levels of $16.00 would confirm the same. Immediate support is seen at $15.60 followed by $15.30/40 and lower, while resistance is seen at $16.00 followed by $16.40/50, $17.40/50, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is at $15.30, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for April 27, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is pulling back from the level 1.4500 now and might be indicating that the top has beem formed around the same region. The pair is currently seen to be trading at 1.4469/70 and expected to drift lower from here on. It is hence recommended to book profits on long positions taken earlier and initiate short positions with risk around 1.4600. Immediate support is seen at the level of 1.4350 followed by 1.4200, 1.4100, and lower while resistance is seen at 1.4630 followed by 1.4800, 1.4900, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Book profits on long positions, initiate short positions, stop is at 1.4630, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 27, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair had rallied through the level of 130.00 before pulling back sharply on Friday. The pair is seen to be trading around 129.23/25 and at the trend-line resistance. Please note that the pair might have already entered into the buy zone on smaller time frames. It is hence recommended to initiate long positions around the level of 129.25 with risk at 128.00. Immediate support is seen at 127.50/75 followed by 126.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at 131.00/50 and higher respectively. Bulls might be preparing to extend rally through the level of 131.50 before producing a meaningful retracement.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate long positions, stop at 128.00, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 27, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic data on German Import Prices m/m are due for release.The US will publish data on the Flash Services PMI. So, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day amid the reports.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0919.

Strong Resistance:1.0913.

Original Resistance: 1.0902.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0891.

Target Inner Area: 1.0866.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0841.

Original Support: 1.0830.

Strong Support: 1.0819.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0813.




Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 27, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data but the US is expected to release figures for Flash Services PMI. So, there is a sreong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 119.57.

Resistance. 2: 119.34.

Resistance. 1: 119.10.

Support. 1: 118.82.

Support. 2: 118.59.

Support. 3: 118.35.




Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for April 27, 2015

EUR/USD: this pair traded in a tight range until April 23, 2015, when it broke upwards owing to the stamina in the euro. The bullish outlook would be valid for this week (except the euro becomes weak – an event that can cause a reversal of the bullish trend).

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USD/CHF: this market went upwards last week testing the resistance level at 0.9700. The short-term bullish movement was due to sudden weakness in CHF, for all CHF pairs were affected on the same day. As CHF eased on the following day, the price dived almost reaching the support line at 0.9500. The support line must be breached to the downside, for the bearish bias to continue to be in force. The failure to achieve this could cause another rally in the market.

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GBP/USD: as the cable was strong an upward movement of 300 pips was witnessed in this market last week. From just below the accumulation territory at 1.4900, the price went upwards almost reaching the distribution territory at 1.5200. That distribution territory could be battered. if the price fails to close above it, we might witness a bearish correction.

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USD/JPY: this is the type of market in which upswings and downswings are short-term in nature. However, a closer look reveals that bears currently have the upper hand and, as a result of this, we might see some selling pressure in force this week.

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EUR/JPY: EUR/JPY consolidated last week but it broke upwards on April 23, 2015. The upward break enabled a Bullish Confirmation Pattern to be formed in the market, and the price might reach the supply levels at 130.50 and 131.00. This outlook would be valid as long as EUR does not sustain exponential weakness.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 27 - 2015

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Technical summary:

The rally from a low of 1.3880 keeps unfolding as a textbook rally. Red wave iii has become 361.8% the distance traveled in red wave i and after a small correction in red wave iv to 1.4208 the next impulsive rally above 1.4569 should be seen. The rally towards 1.4569 is likely to end the first impulsive rally from the low of 1.3880 and call for a correction of wave i towards at least 1.4208 and perhaps even lower to the area between 1.4076 - 1.4136 before a strong rally in wave iii should be expected.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.4055 and will move out stop higher to 1.4100 and place take profit at 1.4535. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.4208 with the same stop at 1.4100 and take profit at 1.4535.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 27 - 2015

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Technical summary:

The base channel resistance-line at 130.21 has protected the upside but we think it is only a matter of time before this resistance line gets broken in favor of acceleration higher towards 131.90. In the short term, we expect support at 128.76 to protect the downside for a break above 129.73 and more importantly a break above 130.21 for acceleration higher.

Only an unexpected break below 127.83 will be of concern.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 128.85 and will keep our stop at 127.80 for now. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 128.76 with the same stop at 127.80.

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