NZD/USD Price Movement For June 17, 2020

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After making a completed primary-secondary movement on the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD is now starting to make a new primary movement to the downside. This is confirmed by the Liquidity Void below the current price which will act as a magnet area and support from the technical view. So, this currency pair is still moving below the Moving Average and the spotted Convergence (Hidden Divergence) between the price with the Stochastic Oscillator. Base on this fact, we believe that NZD/USD will try to raid the nearest SELL Side Liquidity Pool at 0.6391 soon. If this level easily is surpassed, the price will have a chance to reach 0.6300 as the primary target and 0.6175 as the optional target as long as the pair does not retrace upwards and closes above the 0.6504 level.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 17, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The S2F model, popularized by an anonymous analyst, predicts the price of bitcoin based on a shortage of digital coins. It is usually used to forecast the prices of goods such as gold and silver, whose decreasing supply determines the price. PlanB concluded that the S2F model can also be applied to limited supply assets, such as Bitcoin. S2F includes Bitcoin halving and predicts that the price of a digital coin can reach as much as USD 288,000 by 2024. While Bitcoin maximal's look at this model with hope, co-founder Ethereum is not convinced of the legitimacy of its use.

Vitalik Buterin stated that the very method of configuring the model prevents its overthrow. He explained that if the price of bitcoin peaked before halving, the model proved to be correct because it suggests that the price has risen in anticipation of this event. Buterin noted, however, that this thinking applies to every other event on the BTC bitcoin timeline when the cryptocurrency price reaches its peak:

"The" halvings cause BTC price rises "theory is unfalsifiable: was the peak before the halving? Then it" rose in anticipation of the halving "During?" Because of the halving "After?" Because of ... ". The last $ 20k peak was near the halfway point between the 2016 and 2020 halvings "- wrote Buterin on Twitter.

Later in the thread Vitalik Buterin confirmed his opinion. He said he completely disagrees with the S2F model.

Some Twitter users have noticed that the stock-to-flow model alone does not mean that the peak is a direct consequence of halving the prize. They claim that each period between halving displays different orders of magnitude due to changes in supply.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has failed to rally higher towards $250 and is currently testing the lower main channel boundary from below. Any violation of this line will likely make the level of $217.65 a temporary low for the market. The next technical support is seen at the level of $217.65 and $209.89. The nearest technical resistance is still seen at the level of $235.42. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $269.64

WR2 - $259.20

WR1 - $244.61

Weekly Pivot - $234.84

WS1 - $219.79

WS2 - $210.55

WS3 - $195.77

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 17, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Bitcoin mining difficulty is an indicator of the ease with which miners can create new transaction blocks on the network. It increased by almost 15% yesterday. This jump represents the largest upward movement of this type since January 2018. The change occurred at block height of 635.040, and the network adjusted its difficulty to 14.94%, according to data from BTC.com.

This is the highest positive correction of difficulty since January 2018, when the mining sector staggered after the speculative bull run that took place at the end of 2017. Two jumps took place at that time: by 15.36% and 16.84%. They took place on January 13 and 25, respectively.

The difficulty of mining bitcoin shows how difficult the task for miners is to "dig" a new BTC. The indicator "tunes" every 2016 blocks to reflect the state of the network.

After the last halving, the mining award for block mining in the network dropped from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. In the same period, Bitcoin's hash rate, which measures compulsive network power, lost 26 percent.

Some cryptocurrency mining market participants had to turn off excavators after halving reduced their potential revenues by half.

As a result of these events, after which the mining sector experienced a kind of exodus, there were two negative adjustments of difficulty: May 20 (-6 percent) and June 4 (-9.29 percent).

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair made the local low at the level of $8,860, but there is still a room for another wave down. Nevertheless, the bulls have managed to push the price back up after the low was made and currently the price is trading around the level of $9,400. The local high during the bounce was made at the level of $9,530. In a case of a reversal from here, the next technical support is seen at the level of $8,565 and the nearest technical resistance is still seen at the level of $9,249. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,691

WR2 - $10,307

WR1 - $9,752

Weekly Pivot - $9,407

WS1 - $8,828

WS2 - $8,448

WS3 - $7,903

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Investors are cautiously optimistic allowing the dollar to consolidate (further consolidation of AUD/USD and USD/JPY pairs

The Fed's unexpected decision to expand measures to support the national economy before the threat of a wider and prolonged recession has blown optimism again into the sails of optimism of risky assets and highly profitable currencies.

The Fed said it will begin to buy corporate debt under the previously announced incentive scheme by launching the Main Street program, which means lending to a business by purchasing corporate bonds. This news unfolded market sentiment and shifted the focus from the subject of probability of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic to a new opportunity to continue the June rally.

The news from D. Trump, who announced on Tuesday that he was preparing a proposal for infrastructure projects (construction of roads, bridges, etc.) for $ 1 trillion also added positivity. This is generally an unprecedented event. It seems that the president decided to follow the path of F. D. Roosevelt, who implemented an employment program in the 30s of the twentieth century after the awful financial crisis of 1929 with the implementation of infrastructure projects, which allowed the States to break out of the most difficult crisis problems.

These two news led to an increase in demand for risky assets and a noticeable weakening of the US currency. The ICE dollar index declined, turning around in the wake of a wide wave of optimism.

Given the widespread incentive measures, the US dollar exchange rate is expected to remain unchanged in the future. We believe that the most powerful dollar offer in the US financial system will lead to its depreciation against major currencies in the future. This will happen despite the Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates to negative values. The strongest support in pairs with the dollar will receive commodity and commodity currencies. The euro and pound will also face the fact of promising growth, despite their own economic support programs, which, however, are noticeably inferior to the US. At the same time, the Japanese yen and the franc are likely to remain under pressure on the general wave of widespread demand for risk.

On Tuesday, investors closely watched the speech of J. Powell on the Senate Banking Committee. The details were expected from him on the announced new incentive measures. He, as expected, confirmed the course towards the implementation of the corporate bond purchase program. But, besides this, he was generally pessimistic again about the rapid growth of the US economy, which led to profit taking in the stock markets and a limited recovery in the dollar, which, however, stopped following the restoration of purchases of risky assets.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair is likely to consolidate in the side range 0.6800 - 0.7025 in the wake of some worsening situation with coronavirus in China and positive expectations from the new Fed stimulus measures. We consider buying a pair from the lower boundary of this range.

The USD/JPY pair is also consolidating in the range of 106.65-107.65. The lack of a strict focus on the market has a direct impact on the dynamics of the pair. We believe that this picture will continue today. Purchases from the support line 106.65 is considered.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for June 17, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has rallied towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the previous wave down located at the level of 1.1342, but the bulls were rejected from this level and the market reversed towards the main channel line. If the rally will continue here, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1361 and then at 1.1419. The market is bouncing form the oversold conditions and the momentum has broken above its fifty level already, so the odds for another leg up are quite high. Only a sustained breakout above the level of 1.1419 will signal the up trend continuation.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1560

WR2 - 1.1485

WR1 - 1.1355

Weekly Pivot - 1.1283

WS1 - 1.1138

WS2 - 1.1066

WS3 - 1.0927

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Trump's administration has prepared another trillion to support the falling infrastructure; Overview of USD, CAD, and JPY

US stock indices showed an impressive growth again on Tuesday in response to a stronger-than-expected retail sales report in May. Growth amounted to 17.7% with a forecast of 8%, and the markets regarded this result as a direct indication that consumer spending will also grow at a higher rate, which means that a strong decline in GDP in the 2nd quarter will likely be avoided.

The latter conclusion is more than controversial. In any case, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank adjusted its forecast for GDP by only 3%, and expects a decline of not 48.4%, but 45.4%. Small difference isn't it?

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It is logical that the growth amid encouraging retail data will be won back very quickly, since completely different factors must be taken into account. The Trump administration, in the framework of supporting the economy, is preparing the next $ 1 trillion investment project, which is reported to be directed to infrastructure projects. This news contributed to the growth of optimism, because together with the measures taken earlier, it will support the stock market.

At the same time, it is completely unclear who will ultimately bear the obligation to repay the rapidly growing debt. As we know, the US Federal Reserve has announced that it is ready to provide unlimited liquidity. The Congressional Budget Committee examined the first 4 laws that were passed in response to the coronavirus pandemic and summarized their impact on federal spending, income, and deficits. Usually, it is customary to consider only expenses, but the CBO went further and considered such a factor as lost revenue from the adoption of laws.

The result is disappointing – 4 laws of March 6, 18, 27 and April 24 added a total of 2.404 trillion dollars to the budget deficit. If we add new measures, it is clear that there is no chance of an increase in the rate in the coming years, otherwise, the US budget will not be able to service the public debt.

USD/CAD

Canadian manufacturing sales declined by 28.5% in April after falling 9.8% in March. April marked the first full month of physical distance measures in connection with COVID-19, and manufacturing plants operated at limited capacity or completely ceased operations.

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Obviously, May will show an even deeper decline, so for now, making long-term forecasts is early. If the likely second wave of coronavirus does not force restrictive measures to be reintroduced, it can be assumed that the fall of the Canadian economy has gone to the bottom, and against the backdrop of global growth of optimism, this will also affect the growth of the Canadian dollar.

Today, data on consumer inflation in May will be published. The forecast is positive, if it is true, then USD/CAD will receive an additional impulse to decline.

The Canadian dollar is significantly lower than the estimated price, which gives reason to expect USD/CAD to grow, but since the estimated price is directed down and below the trend line, any growth should be considered corrective.

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As a result, the movement of USD/CAD to a minimum of 1.3310 within the boundaries of the medium-term downward channel with a goal at 1.3150 looks more reasonable. Growth is limited by the upper boundary of the channel 1.3720/40, the current market situation suggests a further decline.

USD/JPY

According to the results of the meeting ended on June 16, the Bank of Japan kept the interest rate at 0.1% and confirmed the main parameters of the super soft policy adopted at previous meetings. Additionally, measures to support small and medium-sized businesses will be expanded from 75 to 110 trillion. yen in the form of interest-free loans. Obviously, this is a necessary measure - import and export declined in May by 26.2% and 28.3%, industrial production was at a peak, and emergency measures could not be avoided.

The yen is experiencing a slight decline in demand amid growing optimism. The estimated price is directed upwards, which corresponds to the position of large speculators who reduce the long position on the yen.

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There is a high probability that support at 106.56 will not be updated and the current decline can be used to buy in order to test the current maximum 109.85 for strength.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 17, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD price moved towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2674, but bulls was not strong enough to break through it and the price reversed. The market conditions are now bouncing from the oversold levels, so the bulls might risk another wave up from the current levels towards the nearest technical resistance seen at the level of 1.2747. Nevertheless, they have to violate the level of 1.2674 first. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.2645.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3034

WR2 - 1.2910

WR1 - 1.2681

Weekly Pivot - 1.2581

WS1 - 1.2343

WS2 - 1.2226

WS3 - 1.2014

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 17 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pound is not as strong as it seemed without

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Yesterday, data on a sharp increase in US retail sales caused the British pound to fall, as there is still belief that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be able to find a compromise and reach a trade agreement with the EU. On the 5-minute chart, you can see how after the breakthrough of 1.2620 support in the afternoon, the pair returned to this level, but there was literally a couple of points before its test, which would be a signal to open short positions, after which the market continued to decline to the next support area of 1.2536, the test of which took place today at the Asian session. At the moment, the situation is not as scary for buyers of the pound, however, an operational return to the resistance level of 1.2591 is required, and inflation data in the UK for May this year can help. The bulls will be able to gain a foothold above 1.2591 if the indicator is above zero. This will cause the pound to grow to the area of this week's high at 1.2683, where I recommend taking profits. The farther target is still the area of 1.2801, the update of which will indicate the resumption of the bullish trend formed in early May of this year. If the pressure on the pound returns, then it is best to return to long positions only after updating support 1.2507 and form a false breakout there. You can buy GBP/USD immediately for a rebound only at this week's low at 1.2453. It is important to remember that COT reports have undergone major changes that could affect the British pound. The COT report for June 9 showed a sharp decrease in short positions and an increase in long ones, which indicates a completely possible change in the market direction in favor of strengthening the pound. There was a reduction in short non-profit positions from the level of 63,014 to the level of 52,941. By the way, this is the first reduction in short positions since April 14. At this time, long non-profit positions rose sharply from 26,970 to 28,893. As a result, the nonprofit net position reduced its negative value to -24,048, versus -36,044, which indicates a possible market reversal and building a new bullish momentum in the medium term.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Most likely, the market will remain under pressure, and inflation data may turn out to be much worse than forecasts of economists, which will only increase consumer insecurity after the pound's fall from yesterday. Bears will initially aim for support at 1.2504, however, consolidating below this level will not lead to breaking the bullish trend, as this requires dealing with the more serious level of 1.2453, which is where the pound sharply grew this week. A good signal to open short positions in the first half of the day will be to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2591, slightly higher than where the moving averages pass. In the absence of activity on the part of sellers in this range, it is best to postpone selling until the resistance test of 1.2683, based on a rebound of 30-40 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the formation of a downward correction in the pair.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

If the pound rises in the morning, you can sell at a rebound from the upper border of the indicator at 1.2660. A break of the lower border at 1.2507 will increase the pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD price movement, June 17, 2020

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After failing to reach Primary Move (LP-Lower Peak) and sell-side liquidity pool at 1.1218, Fiber might try to move to the 4-hour chart bearish order block at 1.1315. Before this pair re-tests again the 1.1218 level, from the technical point of view, we can see a convergence (hidden divergence) between the Stochastic and the Price with the current price that is already moving bellow the Moving Average (Maroon). We believe that after making a secondary (up) movement, the EUR/USD pair will go down again id it does not rise and close above the 1.1352 level.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 17, 2020

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The minor correction from 136.35 seems to have been completed. We are looking for a break above minor resistance at 135.35 as confirmation for the next impulsive rally above the mini-peak at 136.35 for a continuation higher to 139.77 and to 148.32.

Short-term support is seen at 134.14 with short-term support at 133.47.

R3: 135.92

R2: 135.33

R1: 134.75

Pivot: 134.54

S1: 134.14

S2: 133.74

S3: 133.47

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 135.35 and we have placed our stop at 133.10

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 17, 2020

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The correction from 122.12 has been deeper than we expected. These mini-rallies followed by deep corrections are a series of one's and two's and once the series of wave three's and four's being, we should see a powerful rally through minor resistance at 121.14 and more importantly resistance at 122.12 for a continuation towards the ideal target for wave iii/ at 125.77.

Only an unexpected break below minor support at 120.31 will indicate that red wave iv still is in motion but the potential downside should be limited to 119.84.

R3: 121.12

R2: 121.46

R1: 121.14

Pivot: 120.85

S1: 120.62

S2: 120.31

S3: 119.84

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 120.90 with our stop placed at 120.25. If our stop is hit, we will re-buy EUR at 119.95

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 17 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pressure on the euro returns. COT reports.

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday's data on a sharp increase in US retail sales provided significant support to the US dollar, which managed to strengthen its position against the European currency. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech to Congress limited demand for the dollar. Unfortunately, it was not possible to wait for a clearer signal to sell the European currency in the afternoon. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the pair's upward correction to the resistance area 1.1326 in the afternoon did not result in a test of this level, to which there was literally a couple of points, after which the market went down again. At the moment, a new resistance 1.1284 has been formed and the task of buyers of the euro is to consolidate on it in the morning. If eurozone inflation data for May this year is better than economists' forecasts, then you can watch euro purchases above the level of 1.1284 counting on a return to the upper limit of the current rising channel of 1.1349, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on the euro continues in the morning, then there is no need to rush into purchases. The optimal scenario is to wait for the test of the lower boundary of the side channel of 1.1215 and form a false breakout there, which will be a signal to open long positions. I recommend buying EUR/USD immediately for a rebound from a low of 1.1164. It is worth recalling that the market is on the side of buyers of the euro. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for June 9 showed the growth of long positions, as well as the reduction of short ones, which indicates a bullish momentum for the pair. The report shows a decrease in short non-profit positions from the level of 93,172 to 98,020, while long non-profit positions sharply rose from the level of 174,412 to the level of 184,669. As a result, the positive non-profit net position rose again to 95,639, against 81,240, which indicates an increase in interest in purchases of risky assets.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers took advantage of good US data yesterday and formed a new resistance at 1.1284, which will be emphasized in the morning. Forming a false breakout there, as well as a rebound from moving averages that pass just above this level, will be a signal to open short positions in EUR/USD whose main goal will be to test the lower border of the side channel of 1.1215. We can talk about resuming the downward trend for the euro after consolidating below the level of 1.1215, which will quickly push the pair to a new low of 1.1164 and 1.1106, where I recommend taking profits. In case the euro grows above resistance 1.1284 after the release of data on the eurozone economy, then it is best not to rush into sales, but wait for the major high of 1.1349 to be updated and open short positions there immediately for a rebound, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates a further decline in the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

In case the pair grows, the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.1330 will act as resistance. You can open long positions after updating the lower border in the area of 1.1225.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

CADJPY pulling back towards ascending trendline support

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 79.498

Reason for Entry: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, Moving average resistance

Take Profit: 78.042

Reason for Take Profit: 38.2% Fibonacci extension, ascending trendline support

Stop Loss: 80.000

Reason for Take Profit: 50.0% Fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 17, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro fell 60 points on Tuesday due to fears of a second wave of coronavirus infection that erupted in China, now in the capital, Beijing. More significant was the reason for the increased demand for dollars during the placement of US debt - this week the US Treasury offers bonds for an incredible worth $460 billion.

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At the moment, the price is slightly lingers at the target level of 1.1265. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is rapidly approaching the boundary of the territory of the negative trend, and the next target at 1.1195 will probably be reached today.

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The price already lingers at the target level and looks like a horizontal consolidation, which is a sign of further decline. The Marlin oscillator is already in the negative zone.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 17, 2020

GBP/USD

So the pound's attempt to overcome the Fibonacci level of 110.0% on the daily chart was suppressed yesterday. The price was pushed down near the Fibonacci level of 123.6%. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is about to move into the bears' possession and the target at the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.2424 will open. The price must overcome the Fibonacci level of 123.6% at the price level of 1.2535 for Marlin to go into the negative zone.

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A decisive price reversal came from the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart. Marlin is in a downward trend zone. We expect the price to decline to 1.2424. There is uncertainty about tomorrow's meeting of the Bank of England, but if you believe the earlier statements by representatives of the regulator, there will be no changes in policy.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on June 17, 2020

AUD/USD

Under the general strengthening of the American dollar, the Australian dollar fell by 29 points on Tuesday, breaking the target level of 0.6900. The Marlin oscillator on the daily timeframe is currently crossing the boundary of the territory of the bears.

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The price turned down from the MACD line and consolidated under the balance line (indicator red) on the four-hour chart. Here the Marlin, as well as on a higher scale, is introduced into the decreasing trend zone. The target of the movement is 0.6680.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 17, 2020

USD/JPY

Japanese investors were very disappointed with economic indicators this morning: the trade balance for May reached -0.60 trillion. yen against expectations of -0.16 trillion. The situation is even worse when considering export and import: exports fell to -28.3% y/y, imports to -26.2% y/y. As a result, the Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 is losing 0.92% despite yesterday's 1.90% increase in the US S&P 500.

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The yen is currently struggling with the support of the embedded price channel line on the daily chart. Most likely, the breakthrough will be successful, but the MACD line (107.01) is located slightly below support, overcoming it opens the way to the lower embedded line of the price channel at 105.90.

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The price is below the indicator lines of balance and MACD on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator is moving down to the boundary of the negative trend, the signal line will approach just in time for the price attack to the key level 107.01 (June 15 low).

Possible correction is limited by the MACD line on the H4 at a price of 107.80.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XAU/USD under bearish pressure, potential for further drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1732.96

Reason for Entry: horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% fibonacci retracement, 78.6% fibonacci extension and descending trend line

Take Profit: 1699.76

Reason for Take Profit: 78.6% fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1745.32

Reason for Take Profit: horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on June 17. COT report. Powell continues to anger Trump with his pessimistic

GBP/USD 1H

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The pound dollar, as well as the euro/dollar, began a downward correctional movement on Friday, June 12. A downward channel has also been formed for the GBP/USD pair, which currently supports trading on a decline. However, the pair tried to overcome the upward trend line yesterday, which continues to remain in force, but the attempt failed. Thus, the bulls continue to remain in the game, despite many signs of completing the upward trend. Since the downward channel is at our disposal, it has become much easier to trade consciously. At the moment, traders have managed to once again descend to the Senkou Smith B line and now it needs to overcome a new test of the ascending trend line. If this line can be overcome, then the bears will strengthen their presence in the market, and buyers will retreat even more. Otherwise, we expect quotes to consolidate above the downward channel and an upward trend to resume.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are again directed upwards and only the small one has started to turn down in the last few hours on the 15-minute timeframe. Thus, the pair is probably making a new attempt to start a downward trend.

COT Report

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The latest COT report for the British pound, published on Friday, showed a strong drop in the number of open purchase contracts among professional traders. Their number decreased by almost 7,000, but there were only 705 new open buy-positions. Thus, traders didn't buy the pound sterling very much, and nevertheless, the British currency rose in price in the reporting week. If you look at the behavior of large traders in all categories, then you would see that they closed both purchase contracts and sale contracts. A total of 25,000 contracts were closed. Thus, in general, the pound was not in demand, but at the same time it was growing against the dollar. This week the pair is falling more than growing, but now it's very difficult to talk about the behavior of large traders.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair remains unchanged. There are no fundamentally new statements or news on the main topic for the pound sterling - Brexit. Yesterday, the markets stirred up because of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's statements that negotiations should be completed before the end of 2020, that he hopes to sign an agreement before the end of summer, and negotiations themselves need to be intensified. However, we note once again that such a statement from Johnson does not mean that the parties are now ready to make concessions. As for macroeconomic statistics, yesterday it became known that, paradoxically, unemployment in the UK is not growing. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in April reached almost a million, but unemployment itself did not increase from the previous 3.9%. Earlier, we noted a similar paradox in the US and some European countries, despite the fact that top officials of the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the governments of the EU and the US continue to declare high unemployment. Consumer price index for May will be released in the UK, which again is unlikely to catch the attention of market participants. More attention will be paid, as usual, to the statements of US President Donald Trump and the imminent growth of the US economy, as well as to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in Congress. By the way, soon we can witness a new portion of criticism from Powell, as the US president is unlikely to be pleased with his speech in Congress, which became public.

There are two main scenarios as of June 17:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair remains in the hands of buyers, since the upward trend line is still relevant. Therefore, formally, it is now relevant for long positions with targets at resistance levels of 1.2740 and 1.2946. However, we consider it inappropriate to consider purchases earlier than consolidating the price above the downward channel. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 80 to 290 points.

2) At the moment, sellers have fulfilled correctional goals and will seek to overcome the trend line in order to form a new downward trend. In this case, it is recommended to resume trading on the down with the targets support levels of 1.2401 and 1.2268. Take Profit will be from 80 to 200 points.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on June 17. COT report. Powell's pessimism did not create pressure

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair resumed its downward movement on the hourly timeframe on June 16 after a rather strong growth on Monday. Thus, we can conclude that the downward trend persists, although it remains rather weak. We continue to expect a significant drop in the European currency, considering that the previous growth was, to put it mildly, not too justified. In recent days, a downward channel has been formed, which now provides support to the traders who expect a fall. Yesterday, the pair failed to gain a foothold above the resistance area of 1.1327-1.1341, which also helped the bears to resume sales. At the moment, the quotes of the pair fell to the Senkou Span B line, and in addition to the descending channel, two more upward trend lines remain in force. Thus, we believe that the downward movement will continue, at least to the first trend line, which lies near the support level of 1.1171. Further prospects for sellers will depend on overcoming this line.

EUR/USD 15M

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The higher linear regression channel turned up again on the 15-minute timeframe, and the lowest turned down again. Thus, we are now witnessing an entry to forming a new downtrend from the pair.

COT Report

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The European currency continued to rise in price for most of the past week. Thus, we made assumptions that professional market players have invested in the euro, respectively, according to the latest COT report, the number of buy positions should have seriously increased. Or the number of contracts for selling the euro will seriously decrease. As a result, the report showed that the first option was implemented. The number of open buy positions increased by 12,662, while sales contracts were also reduced by professional traders (-2,579). Thus, even a double effect was obtained. As for the general changes among all categories of traders in the COT report, it is the number of sell deals that has grown over the past week. However, as we all perfectly understand, speculators drive the market, and accordingly, it is their actions that interest us first of all. The trend is already different this week. Speculators stopped opening new contracts for the purchase.

The general fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair remains neutral, from our point of view. Quite important messages and macroeconomic reports are regularly received from the United States and the European Union. However, unfortunately, traders continue to ignore most of the macroeconomic statistics because in the EU and in the US the economic picture is now about the same. Both there and there, the economy is experiencing serious problems due to the coronavirus crisis, so the next drop in any indicator does not cause shock for market participants, because competitors have no better indicator. The top officials of the EU and the US, all but Donald Trump, continue to give out very pessimistic comments about the economic recovery after the crisis. Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking to the Banking Committees of the US Congress, said that much will depend on whether the coronavirus is completely defeated and when it happens. According to Powell, complete restoration can not be done without this. On the one hand, the comments of the Fed chairman cannot be called optimistic, but the greenback was in demand yesterday at the US trading session. At a time when there was no other important news. Today's important events include inflation in the EU and Powell's second speech in the Congress. However, inflation in recent months has ceased to be an important indicator for market participants, and the content of Powell's second speech will most likely be the same as the first.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 17:

1) So far, the bulls have released the initiative from their hands, so the pair could continue the downward movement. Therefore, after overcoming the Senkou Span B line, we recommend selling the pair again with the goal of the support level of 1.1171. If sellers succeed in overcoming the trend line, then sales will be supported with targets at support levels of 1.1088 and 1.0962. Potential Take Profit range from 70 to 280 points.

2) We recommend considering the option of resuming the pair's growth if the bulls manage to return to the area above the critical Kijun-sen line, as well as above the resistance area 1.1327-1.1341 and, as a result, after consolidating above the downward channel. Then we will recommend buying the euro again with targets at the resistance levels of 1.1380 and 1.1506. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 30 to 160 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What did Jerome Powell say the US Senate Banking Committee?

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On Tuesday afternoon, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke before the US Senate Banking Committee. The head of the Federal Reserve, as several times before, noted the importance and significance of the fight against the "coronavirus" and said that without a victory over the virus, there will not be a full recovery of the economy. According to Powell, there are only small signs of recovery at the moment, and economic activity remains far below the level seen before the epidemic and crisis. Powell noted a high level of uncertainty about the timing and pace of economic recovery, as there remains a high degree of uncertainty around the "coronavirus". Powell also said that the consequences of the epidemic in the form of increased unemployment, waves of small business failures will cause long-term damage to the economy. "Until people are confident that the disease is under control, a full recovery is unlikely," the head of the Federal Reserve said. In principle, this is what we have discussed in recent articles. Even if the quarantine is completed and all quarantine measures are lifted, if people are afraid of getting sick, they will significantly restrict their movements and activities and, as a result, limit their spending. In addition, Powell notes that the fall in the number of jobs will negatively affect low-income Americans, representatives of national minorities, and women, as well as increasing the gap between the poor and the rich. "If it is not stopped and reversed, this downturn may exacerbate the problem of economic inequality among the population, which has made some progress over a long period of economic growth," the Fed Chairman said. Also, Powell once again drew the attention of Congress to the fact that the unemployed and businesses require longer-term support than that implied by the current $ 3 trillion programs. Thus, according to Powell, the economy should continue to be supported by direct monetary injections. The head of the Federal Reserve also focused on the importance of supporting small businesses, which is the "heart of the American economy".

Today, on Wednesday, Jerome Powell will address the House of Representatives of the US Congress. Most likely, the content of his speech will remain unchanged.

Well, based on the results of Powell's speech, we can say the following. The head of the Federal Reserve clearly understands what problems the US economy is facing and what consequences it will have. Unlike Donald Trump, who has already promised a rapid and strong economic recovery in the third and fourth quarters of 2020, and at the same time a "stunning 2021", as if forgetting that in 2021 he can no longer be president of the country, Powell is aware that there will be no rapid recovery. Moreover, the Chairman of the American Central Bank is absolutely right, stating the importance of fighting the "coronavirus". Based on this, we cannot draw any optimistic conclusions. And this applies, oddly enough, to all countries, including the European Union. Therefore, we do not believe that the US dollar will become cheaper because of Powell's words since the economic situation in Europe is no better. Moreover, the US currency, on the contrary, rose in price during the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 17. Hysteria swept the markets due to information about the resumption of Brexit negotiations

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -49.4481

Over the past two days, all traders and analysts have been discussing only one event – the continuation of the dialogue between the UK and the European Union regarding an agreement on further co-existence after December 31, 2020. It is the "sequel". And this "continuation" caused euphoria in the currency market. The British pound soared yesterday and it doesn't matter whether it is due to this information or not. All the media and experts immediately began to trumpet that the pound received market support due to the resumption of Brexit negotiations. However, the negotiations did not end and did not pause. The parties simply cannot agree on many of the key issues and nothing has changed in the past two days. All that has happened is a statement by both sides of the need to continue negotiations and speed them up a little.

We will now try to understand better everything that has happened in recent days. First, it should be noted at once that the pound sterling in recent years really likes to get more expensive on rumors. Therefore, yesterday's news could easily be interpreted as the willingness of both sides to make concessions, which will bring them much closer to the cherished agreement. However, as has happened in reality many times, such rumors are usually not confirmed by anything. Secondly, Boris Johnson and the EU leaders did not make any loud statements after the joint video conference. The official statement said that the parties agreed that "a new impetus is needed in the negotiations". London and Brussels also supported the plans of the negotiating groups of Michel Barnier and David Frost to intensify negotiations and create a favorable environment and conditions for signing a comprehensive agreement by the end of 2020. The meeting was attended by the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, the head of the European Parliament, David Sassoli, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and Michel Barnier. Earlier, Boris Johnson has repeatedly stated that London will not extend the duration of the "transition period", yesterday the parties officially announced this. Boris Johnson also reminded EU leaders that the UK is ready to leave the Alliance without any agreements. Thus, the first six months that were devoted to negotiations ended with little more than nothing. Of course, serious adjustments were made by "coronavirus", but if you remember the position of Boris Johnson before the epidemic, it becomes clear that COVID-2019 is absolutely nothing to do with it, and the outcome of the negotiations by June 16 would have been the same. Based on this, in fact, absolutely nothing positive has happened for the pound. The parties can negotiate for as long as they want, but until there are concrete concessions on both sides, there will be no progress. Well, what awaits the UK if an agreement is not reached, we have already written repeatedly. In short, it is another blow to the economy, a blow to the welfare of citizens, and a blow to the country. In any case, any budget deficits will be covered by ordinary Britons, not Boris Johnson, so the population of Albion will pay the bills anyway.

However, the British Prime Minister still expressed hope that the parties will be able to reach an agreement before the end of this year. And this statement looks like a mockery, especially after the statements of Michel Barnier that London is not very keen to conclude an agreement, and sometimes openly delays the negotiation process. Also, Boris Johnson initially intended to withdraw the country from the bloc without any agreements, but this option was strictly blocked by the Parliament, and everything ended in a serious political crisis and re-elections. From our point of view, a new political crisis may now begin in Britain. The population of the country is dissatisfied with the actions of the authorities in the fight against COVID-2019. The British are dissatisfied with the fact that there will be no deal with the EU, as they fear the supply of many medicines that are produced in the EU. In times of global pandemics, you will agree that this is a rather serious issue. As a result, the political ratings of Johnson and the Conservative party began to decline, and the ratings of the Labor party began to grow. Of course, such a crisis as in the United States and the UK is still far away, but certain makings are already visible.

Yesterday, some fairly important reports were published in the UK. Most surprising was the unemployment report, which remained unchanged at 3.9% in April. And this is despite the fact that by the end of the same April, 856 thousand applications for unemployment benefits were submitted in the country. And at the end of May, there were still 370 thousand such applications. How, at the same time, unemployment in Britain has not increased by half a point, is unclear. However, we have already witnessed a paradoxical decline in unemployment in the US, where instead of rising to 20%, unemployment has managed to fall in the midst of the pandemic crisis. After this data, the wage report was no longer of interest to anyone. Well, the pound did not react to these data. But with pleasure, I reacted with a fall to Jerome Powell's speech in Congress.

Today, June 17, the UK will publish the inflation rate for May, which, according to experts, will slow down to 0.5% y/y. However, as we said earlier, at this time, inflation is almost irrelevant. And in general, macroeconomic statistics are often simply ignored by traders. Thus, we would recommend paying much more attention to Jerome Powell's second speech to the US Congress and to technical factors.

And the technical factors are now such that it is unclear whether traders are going to resume the formation of an upward trend or are preparing for mass sales. We are inclined to the second option, but it requires fixing the price below the moving average line. Both channels of linear regression are currently directed upwards, but we still do not see any serious and compelling reasons for the pound to continue to rise in price at such a difficult time for the UK.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to remain stable and is currently 146 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this indicator is "high". On Wednesday, June 17, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2432 and 1.2724. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will indicate a possible new round of upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2573

S2 – 1.2512

S3 – 1.2451

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2634

R2 – 1.2695

R3 – 1.2756

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair resumed its downward movement on the 4-hour timeframe, anchoring below the moving average line. Thus, today it is recommended to trade the pound/dollar pair for a decrease with the goals of 1.2512 and 1.2451. It is recommended to buy the pound/dollar pair when traders manage to return to the area above the moving average, with the first targets of 1.2695 and 1.2724. It is recommended to be extremely careful with purchases of the pair now.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 17. The political crisis in the US may turn into a constitutional one, and Donald Trump

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -90.7903

Recently, we often analyze the figure of Donald Trump in our articles, discuss his chances of winning the election in November, as well as the prospects of America with and without Trump. We still believe that a lot will depend on the results of the November 3 elections for the dollar, the United States, and the world. It has happened in recent years that the United States plays a very significant role in the international arena. Their actions and opinions cannot be ignored, even if they are fundamentally wrong, unfair, or absurd. These are the realities of modern international diplomacy. Washington can quite calmly declare that, conditionally, South Korea is engaged in uranium enrichment and that it cannot be engaged in this, since it is a threat to the security of the entire world, and threaten sanctions if Seoul refuses to voluntarily give up its "outrage". And what are sanctions if not for the wealthiest country? This is a blow to the economy, a strong blow. It is China or Russia that can relatively painlessly withstand US sanctions or duties or other restrictions. But this judgment applies only to large countries with strong economies and military power. Countries that can also fight back from a position of strength. Therefore, a strong and powerful state mustn't be headed by a dictator who wants to take over the whole world or just make it dance to his tune, but first of all by a diplomat who knows how to negotiate and conduct international activities wisely, so that his country flourishes, but others do not feel an eternal desire to annoy his country. And this is exactly the quality that Trump does not have. The US President believes that dialogue with China, Russia, and others can only be conducted from a position of strength and threats. And this strategy can only work with Brazil, Mexico, or Guatemala. Therefore, all as one, world experts say that during the Trump presidency, Washington's relations with Russia and China have significantly deteriorated. And if he remains at the helm of the country, they will continue to deteriorate, since it is unlikely that the US leader will wake up one fine morning with the desire to establish relations with everyone and make friends. Thus, the prospects for the whole world are not very bright. At best, these are ongoing trade and cold wars if Trump remains president of the United States.

Although political ratings are now not in favor of Republican Trump, many experts agree that the US leader will not leave his post just like that. First, many fear that Trump will try to do everything possible to spoil the November election. He can give hidden orders to his fellow party members and supporters to block the work of electoral precincts in those regions in which almost 100% probability would have won Joe Biden. Or, for example, using his power to order certain states or counties to be quarantined. Many Republican governors may follow him, who will also fight for power. All this will be in the style of Trump, who does not accept the word "impossible". Trump is ready to use any means to achieve the goal. It is not necessary to go far for the proof of these words. Just recently, Trump was going to use army forces to disperse protesters across the country, referring to the law of 1807 on the suppression of riots, which has never been applied in the United States. He was barely dissuaded from such a step by the Defense Minister and other high-ranking officials. However, not only Trump but also Joe Biden is counting on the help of the army. The Democratic candidate, if he wins the election, is going to resort to the help of the US military to "throw" Trump out of the White House. And all these skirmishes between presidential candidates take place not in any country that is difficult to call civilized and democratic, but in the United States. It turns out that Biden is quite seriously suggesting that Trump may simply refuse to leave the White House if he loses the election. Many traders and readers may say: "this can't be happening". It can. According to American law, the president is not required to leave the White House, even if he lost the election. That is, of course, this does not mean that he will remain president after the term allotted to him, however, he can challenge the election results in the courts, can initiate re-elections in some states where, in his opinion, there were violations. To do this, he does not need to present any evidence, which Trump, however, has never pampered anyone. Thus, the fears of Joe Biden, which he shared a few months ago, are not groundless at all. Donald Trump, who initially clearly intended to win the election fairly, presenting the results of his work for 4 years, now clearly will try to win by any means. And all this will mean not just a political crisis (what is already happening in America), but a constitutional one, when the constitution, the laws of the country, and democracy will be put at risk. In general, as in the case of the UK, the "Brexit" epic dragged on for many years, so in the case of the US, the "Donald Trump" epic can drag on for many months.

On the third trading day of the week, a fairly large number of different events are planned again. The European Union will publish today the value of inflation for May, which may remain at a minimum level of 0.1% y/y. In monthly terms, deflation of -0.1% may be recorded. Also today, ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos will speak, who often pampers market participants with very serious and important statements. In the afternoon, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will address Congress (second performance). The first one took place the day before and you can read about it in a separate article. Yesterday, Powell's speech caused quite a strong reaction to the market, the US currency rose significantly after it. Therefore, today there may be something similar.

In general, we continue to insist that the US currency should continue to grow, despite any statements by the ECB and Fed chairmen and representatives, despite any macroeconomic statistics. The euro currency has returned to the area below the moving average line, so the trend is now again downward.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of June 17 is 115 points. Thus, the value of the indicator is still characterized as "high", thanks to the last two weeks. We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1147 and 1.1377 today. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back up will signal a possible new round of upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1353

R2 – 1.1475

R3 – 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair returned to the area below the moving average line. Thus, at this time, sell orders with the goals of 1.1147 and 1.1108 are again relevant before the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back up. It is recommended to return to buying the pair not before fixing the price above the moving average with the goals of 1.1353, 1.1377, and 1.1475.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com