Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for September 13, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair managed to breach 144.20 resistance clearly yesterday to regain the bullish bias and record big gains by reaching 146.55 level. Meanhwile, we will depend on the new support base formed by the breached resistance to expect targeting new upward levels that start at 147.85 followed by 150.95. Stochastic reinforces the price attempt to regain the bullish bias by consolidating within the overbought areas. This will provide new momentum and ease the attempt to record the waited targets. The expected trading range for today is between 144.80 and 147.85

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Daily analysis of Gold for September 13, 2017

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Overview

Gold price is riding a bullish bias after 23.6% Fibonacci correction level has formed solid support at 1,321.49 which followed recent negative moves. The metal is likely to return to the bullish trend, but we notice that stochastic loses its positive momentum clearly, while the EMA50 is generating negative pressure. Therefore, we prefer staying aside for a while until we get a clearer confirmation signal for the next trend. We are waiting until one of the key levels represented by 1,321.49 support and 13,44.00 resistance is breached to determine the next target. Please note that breaking the mentioned support will push the price to extend its bearish correction towards 1,299.20 directly, while breaching 1,344.00 will stop the correctional bearish pressure and lead the price to regain the main bullish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 1,315.00 support and 1,350.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for September 13, 2017

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Overview

Silver price continues to fluctuate sideways in a tight range. Besides, stochastic should get rid of its negativity clearly to approach from the oversold areas. This move means momentum that we are waiting for to make the price resume the overall bullish trend, which is organized inside the bullish channel. Therefore, the odds are that our first target at 18.30 will be touched as breaching it represents the key to rally towards 19.38 as the next main station. Let me remind you that holding above 17.43 represents the key condition to continue the bullish trend. The expected trading range for today is between 17.75 support and 18.00 resistance.

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Analysis of Gold for September 13, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,334.67. According to the 30M time frame, I found a broken falling wedge formation (bullish) in the background, which is a sign that selling looks risky. There is also a confirmed hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscilator, which is another sign of strength. I placed Fibonacci retracement levels to potential targets. I got FR 38.2% at the price of $1,336.00, FR 50% at the price of $1,340.00 and FR 61.8% at the price of $1,343.00. Watch for buying opportunities.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3315

R2: 1.3325

R3: 1.3330

Support levels:

S1: 1.3300

S2: 1.3290

S3: 1.3280

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for September 13, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3260. According to the 30M time frame, I found that sellers entered the market after the news today. Anyway, the trend is still upward and selling looks risky. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.3265, Fibonacci retracement 50% at the price of 1.3245 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.3225. Stochastic is in oversold mode and that is another sign of strength. Watch for potential buying opportunties on the dips.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3315

R2: 1.3325

R3: 1.3330

Support levels:

S1: 1.3300

S2: 1.3290

S3: 1.3280

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 13, 2017

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Our initial target which we predicted in our previous analysis has been hit. USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 109.70. The pair is supported by the rising trend line since September 8, which confirmed a positive outlook. The upward momentum is further reinforced by both ascending 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is bullish and calls for a new upside.

Hence, as long as 109.70 is not broken, look for another advance to 110.40 and even to 110.90.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 109.70 with a target at 109.25.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 109.70, Take Profit: 110.40

Resistance levels: 110.40, 110.90, and 111.35 Support Levels: 109.25, 108.80, 108.30

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 13, 2017

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Our initial target in our previous analysis has been hit. USD/CHF is expected to continue the upside movement. The pair recorded higher tops and higher bottoms since September 8, which confirmed a positive outlook. The rising 50-period moving average suggests that the prices have potential for a further upside. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum.

US dollar gained modestly yesterday after its biggest downward rally in nearly eight months as investors are waiting for important data due to announced today.

Investors are also waiting for US inflation data due to be announced today at 12:30 GMT, it is expected that the producer price index will have increased to 0.3% in August against the -0.1% in July and Core PPI is expected to come out at 0.2% as compared to -0.1% previously.

Therefore, as long as 0.9570 is support, expect a new challenge to 0.9630 and even to 0.9655 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9570, Take Profit: 0.9630

Resistance levels: 0.9630, 0.9655, and 0.9700

Support levels: 0.9545, 0.9510, and 0.9460

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 13, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is moving in the bullish trend from the support levels of 0.7231 and 0.7293. Right now, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that it is still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.7293, which coincides with a golden ratio (38.2% of Fibonacci). Hence, the first support is set at the level of 0.7293. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.7293. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the price of 0.7293 with the first target at the level of 0.7343. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.7343. Moreover, the pair could climb towards the double top (0.7393). It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7230.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 13, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair has faced strong resistances at the levels of 0.9596 because support had become resistance on the H4 chart. So, the first resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9596 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9596, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9596 (the level of 0.9596 coincides with a ratio of 50% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9596 so it will be good to sell at 0.9596 with the first target of 0.9554. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9503. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9503. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.9638.
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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 13, 2017

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All our targets which we posted in our targets have been hit. The pair remains supported by its rising trend line on an intraday basis. The 20-period moving average is heading upward, and should continue to push the prices higher. Moreover, the relative strength index is bullish, and calls for further upside.

In which case, above 145.25, look for further advance to 146.65 and 147.30 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 145.25 with the target at 144.80.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 145.25, Take Profit: 146.65.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows th-e pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 146.65, 147.30, and 147.80

Support levels: 144.80 144.20, and 143.55

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 13, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested earlier in September.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

The current price levels of 0.7320-0.7350 can be watched for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 13, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, If bearish pullback persists below 1.1800 and 1.1700, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 can be watched for a valid BUY entry

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 13, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.7255. Despite the recent pullback from 0.7320 (the high of September 12), the pair is still trading above the rising 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is mixed to bullish. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 0.7255.

Hence, as long as this key level is not broken, look for a further rebound to 0.7340 and even to 0.7370 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates the bullish position. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7340, 0.7370, and 0.7415

Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7220, and 0.7200

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Bitcoin analysis for September 13, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $3,894 driven on the news that BitKan, an over-the-counter (OTC) trading service for cryptocurrencies in China, announced today that it will suspend operations amid growing scrutiny from domestic regulators. The statement noted that the suspension is a result of an announcement published by People's Bank of China on September 4 in which seven local financial regulators announced a ban on illegal initial coin offering (ICO), fundraising, and trading activities. The technical picture is in favor for sellers since there are confirmed patterns in the background.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found two broken rising wedges in the background and most recently broken symmetrical triangle which is a sign of weakness. The price did break the level of $4,000 (round mark) and the next downward target is set at the price of $3,605 (projected pattern target). Watch for selling opportunities.

Support/Resistance

$4.000 – Support became resistance (price action)

$3.605 – Projected pattern target (support)

$3.887 – Intraday support (price action)

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Global macro overview for 13/09/2017

Global macro overview for 13/09/2017:

High expectations for the British Pound ahead of BoE interest rate decision are still being the main theme for all GBP traders. Yesterday, the UK Office for National Statistics revealed that UK CPI was stronger-than-expected and the growth rate was 2.9% in August, up from an increase of 2.6% in the preceding month. The country's consumer prices growth has been the strongest since the decision to quit the European Union as Brexit kept pushing up the living cost in the UK. Higher costs of fuels as well as a strong rise in clothing and footwear prices, contributed most to the growth, as retailers passed cost pressures straight to customers. Today's UK job market data were worse than expected, except the unemployment rate that declined to 42 years low at the level of 4.3%. Nevertheless, the number of individuals who are out of work and who are claiming some sort of unemployment benefit increased 2.8k and average earnings increased only 2.1% instead of expected 2.3%. The absence of wage pressure is taking away the hawkish ammunition in the Bank of England and reducing the chances of a positive tone in tomorrow's BoE message. However, it is doubtful that investors will completely abandon their hopes for tomorrow's decision, so the GBP may be off for a deeper correction.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is trading below all of the moving averages, but managed to bounce from the important technical support zone between the levels of 0.8982 - 0.9007. The market conditions are now oversold and some kind of a corrective move is expected towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 0.9050 - 0.9061.

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Global macro overview for 13/09/2017

Global macro overview for 13/09/2017:

The US JOLTS job-openings data increased to fresh record highs in July. According to the US government agency, JOLTS job-openings rose to 6.17mn from a revised 6.12mn the previous month. The data was above consensus expectations of 6.00mn and a fresh record high for the data series. The biggest growth was noticed in trade and support sectors and the decline was noted in manufacturing jobs.

The US job market remains strong and confident. The quits rate, a good measure of how confident workers are in the current labor market, inched up 0.1pp to 2.2%, matching its post-recession high. The layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged from June at 1.2%, indicating low levels of involuntary separations. Nevertheless, the upcoming labor market readings are expected to deteriorate due to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma hindering activity in recent weeks. The scale of the damage done to the US economy can only be roughly estimated at the time of writing, but many analysts say it will be devastating to US GDP. It will definitely influence the US labour market in the form of increase of joblessness claims.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. After a bounce from the level of 107.30, the price rallied toward the technical resistance at the level of 109.84. However, the key technical resistance zone between the levels of 110.61 - 111.04 is still not violated. The market conditions are overbought on this time frame and internal correction is now due. First technical support is seen at the level of 109.84 and 109.41.

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Trading plan 13.09.2017

Overall picture: The market awaits for the US inflation data on Thursday.

Interest rate risk rose again to the markets. US stock indices overcame its highs on August 8 and showed new historical highs.

The S&P 500 index closed near the 2500 level.

The optimism is caused partly by some calm situation in North Korea, as new sanctions have been adopted against the country. However, it's much lighter than the originally proposed penalties by the United States. On the other hand, the North Korea realized that the new sanctions could include a complete ban on oil supplies and this might put the regime nearly in a desperate situation. Moreover, North Korea took a break.

The British pound has sharply stepped into the principal growth for two reasons: The process of negotiations on the exit of Britain from the EU is successfully going on, and the inflation in Britain has risen above the forecast.

The situation of EURUSD.

The news for tomorrow is regarding the inflation in the US.

We stand in the purchase from 1.1980

As of this writing, the movement is more likely to move upward, reaching the highs at 1.2100.

The breakthrough at 1.1925 below is an option where we can sell.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 13, 2017

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 13, 2017

Bitcoin analysis for 13/09/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 13/09/2017:

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed his point of view on Bitcoin yesterday. In the interview at a Barclays investment conference on Tuesday, Dimon said he supported a blockchain technology for tracking payments but that trading Bitcoin itself was against the bank's rules, because, as he said, Bitcoin was "stupid" and "far too dangerous". Later on, he warned that Bitcoin prices are very volatile and would remain very volatile for some time. This situation could be dangerous if countries crack down on its use like China has recently done (after the Chinese decision, the Bitcoin plummeted by about 10% in value). At the end of the interview he warned investors again: "It won't end well," Dimon said, adding that "they will eventually blow up. It's a fraud."

As a CEO of one of the biggest investments banks in the world, Dimon sounds very pessimistic about the future of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency, while many other banks around the world are trying to deal with this situation in a more constructive way by legalizing the digital currencies, implementing more regulations or trying to introduce their own altcoins or cryptocurrencies.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture on the hourly time frame. The current Elliott wave count indicates a possible termination of the wave (c) at the weekly pivot support at the level of $3, 920 which means the completion of a corrective structure of a higher degree. Nevertheless, a lack of an impulsive rebound would indicate a possible extension of the slide towards the next important technical support at the level of $3,600.

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Trading plan for 13/09/2017

Trading plan for 13/09/2017:

The overnight trading session in Asia was dominated by supply after the Wall Street indices made a decent set of gains and new all-time highs: S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, with new Dow Jones indexes closing at 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 at 0.3% as well. On the currency market, Pound Sterling (0.2%) is trying to keep the GBP/USD exchange rate above the key 1.3300 level.

On Wednesday 13th of September, the event calendar is quite busy with various economic releases. During the London session, Germany and Spain will post Final Consumer Price Index data and the Eurozone will present Employment Change and Industrial Production data. The UK will reveal Unemployment Rate, Claimant Count Change, and Average Earnings Index data. Later on, the US will post PPI data.

GBP/USD analysis for 13/09/2017:

The Unemployment Rate, Claimant Count Change, and Average Earnings Index data from the UK are all scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT. Market participants expect the Unemployment Rate to be left unchanged at the level of 4.4%, Claimant Count Change is expected to increase 0.8k after a -4.2k drop a month ago and Average Earning Index is expected to increase from 2.1% to 2.3% on a quarterly basis and from 2.1% to 2.2% on a yearly basis. Market participants expectations are pretty high, but after yesterday's inflation data that beat the market consensus significantly (0.6% vs. 0.5% expected, -0.1% prior) the investor's enthusiasm and positive approach might be understandable. The inflationary pressures are accelerating faster than forecasts and clearly exceed the Bank of England's target projections. It is no wonder that there is a chance that Haldane will join on Saunders and McCafferty on Thursday Bank of England monetary policy meeting. In this situation, hopes for an interest rate hike are rising and the British Pound is gaining across the board.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price has broken above the technical resistnace at the level of 1.3267 after the better than expected data were released and currently is consolidating the gains in overbought market conditions. There is a first clue that a bearish divergence is forming between the price and the momentum oscillator, but as long as the price is above the level of 1.3165 the short-term bias stays bullish.

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Market Snapshot: SPY gaps up to all-time highs

The price of SPY (SP500 ETF) has stepped up towards new highs at the level of 249.20 The market is trading in overbought conditions on an hourly time frame, but is still above all of the moving averages and is now consolidating the gains. There are the first signs of developing bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator, so the internal correction might be deep enough to fill the gap (marked as a gray rectangle). The longer-term bias remains bullish.

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Market Snapshot: DAX30 retracing 61% of the previus swing

The price of German DAX30 index is rallying up and it has retraced 61% of the previous swing down already. It is worht to keep an eye on the level of 12 538 as this migth be the level where the bears will come to cap the rally.The next techncial resistnace zone of importance is seen at the level of 12,620 - 12,675.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for September 13, 2017

USD/CAD bearish non-volatile trend has taken the price towards 1.21 level recently and now we can see some corrective structure showing some evidence to push the price higher again. CAD has been very powerful in light of upbeat economic reports after the rate hike which did make CAD resilient to USD for last few weeks. Recently this week, Canada's Housing Starts report was published with an increase to 223k from the previous figure of 222k which is expected to decrease to 216k. However, despite the positive report CAD is currently struggling to withstand the bearish pressure which does indicate that counter bullish move is on the way. On the other hand, USD is also quite positive amid solid economic reports this week which lead to a better competition with CAD in its impulsive growth. Today, US PPI report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 0.3% from the previous negative value of -0.1%, Core PPI is expected to increase to 0.2% from the negative value of -0.1%, and Crude Oil Inventories are expected to decrease to 4.1M from the previous figure of 4.6M. The US reports today are widely expected to reveal upbeat figures, whereas any better than expected report is going to push the USD price higher against CAD and show some good counter move along the way. Though CAD has been quite strong amid the positive market sentiment, USD is now following it to gain ground through the positive economic reports, resulting in growing demand for the US currency.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has recently bounced off the support area of 1.21 which also showed a bullish engulfing candle pattern yesterday as well. The price is currently expected to show some rise towards the 1.2410 resistance level where the dynamic level 20 EMA resistance resides. As the price remains above the 1.21 support area with the daily close, the bullish bias is likely to continue further.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 13, 2017

The Dollar index is showing signs of a possible reversal and resumption of the larger bearish trend. Is the bounce in the Dollar index over? Too early to tell and we have to be patient and confirm only on a break below 91.50.

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Black line - short-term support

The Dollar index has broken below the short-term neckline of a possible head and shoulders pattern. Key resistance to cancel this pattern is at 91.95. A break above it will open the way for a move higher towards 92.30. Support is now at 91.50.

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On a daily basis, the Dollar index is clearly in a bearish trend. Price has not managed to break above the tenkan-sen yet. Resistance is at 92. A daily close above 92 could open the way for a move towards 92.60 where we find the kijun-sen resistance (yellow line indicator). For now we still expect that the Dollar index will continue lower towards 90.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for September 13, 2017

Gold price remains vulnerable to a decline towards $1,300-$1,290. Longer-term trend and favorite scenario remains bullish. Gold has rallied from $1,205 non-stop without any big pull back. Maybe this is it before the next leg upwards to $1,450.

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On the 4-hour chart, Gold price shows signs of strength bouncing off the Ichimoku cloud support. In our previous analysis, I said that the $1,330-20 area is a buying opportunity. Price is now bouncing off this support and bulls now need to break above the kijun-sen resistance (yellow line indicator) at $1,340. A break below $1,322 will open the way for a move below $1,300.

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On the Daily chart, we see Gold price trying to move back above the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). Trend is clearly bullish as price is making higher highs and higher lows. Daily important support for Gold is at $1,308.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 13, 2017

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Wave summary:

The correction in red wave iv extended lower to 1.6327, this is more than enough to complete this correction and turn prices higher in red wave v towards 1.6883 and above. A break above minor resistance at 1.6522 and more importantly a break above 1.6569 will confirm that red wave iv has completed and red wave v higher is developing towards 1.6883.

Support is now seen at 1.6389 and again at 1.6327.

R3: 1.6624

R2: 1.6569

R1: 1.6522

Pivot: 1.6500

S1: 1.6425

S2: 1.6389

S3: 1.6327Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6400 was hit for a loss. We will buy EUR again at 1.6395 or upon a break above 1.6522.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 13, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY is broken into new highs for the rally from 109.48, just as we expected. We continue to look for more upside closer to 134.80 and the ideal wave (D) target at 137.36, from where the final zig-zag decline in wave (E) should take over.

Support is now seen at 131.10, which should be able to protect the downside for the expected rally higher. R3: 134.80

R2: 132.67

R1: 132.19

Pivot: 131.50

S1: 131.10

S2: 130.87

S3: 130.65

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 130.10 and will raise our stop to 130.60. Take profit is placed at 137.15.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 13, 2017

EUR/USD: It may be prudent to stay away from this pair until there is a directional movement. The EMAs 11 and 56 are giving a bullish indication, and the Williams' % Range period 20 is giving a bearish indication. When price trends in a direction, the indicators would agree with one another. A movement below the support line at 1.1850 would result in a bearish bias, while a movement above the resistance line at 1.2050 would help strengthen it.

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USD/CHF: A "buy" signal has finally been generated on this pair – especially in the short term. The EMA 11 has crossed the EMA 56 to the upside, while the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the overbought region. Price could now target the resistance levels at 0.9650 and 0.9700.

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GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument has moved upwards by close to 360 pips since the beginning of last week. The accumulation territory at 1.3300 has been breached to the upside, as price targets another distribution territories at 1.3350 and 1.3400. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. A further bullish movement is logically anticipated.

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USD/JPY: There is now a clean bullish signal on USD/JPY, for price has gone upwards by 200 pips this week. Price is now above the demand level at 110.00, going towards the supply levels at 110.50, 111.00 and 111.50. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the 4-hour chart, which shows that bulls reign.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair has gone upwards by 200 pips this week, now testing the supply zone at 132.00. The supply zone would be breached to the upside as price targets other supply zones at 132.50 and 133.00, which would be reached today or tomorrow. The bias on the market is now bullish.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 13, 2017

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German 10-y Bond Auction, Industrial Production m/m, Employment Change q/q, German WPI m/m, and German Final CPI m/m. The US will post a few economic reports too such as Federal Budget Balance, 30-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, Core PPI m/m, and PPI m/m. So amid a packed economic calendar, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2030.

Strong Resistance:1.2023.

Original Resistance: 1.2011.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1999.

Target Inner Area: 1.1971.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1943.

Original Support: 1.1931.

Strong Support: 1.1919.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1912.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sept 13, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the PPI y/y and BSI Manufacturing Index. On the US dollar's front, the US will release several economic data such as Federal Budget Balance, 30-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, Core PPI m/m, and PPI m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 110.67.

Resistance 2: 110.45.

Resistance 1: 110.24.

Support 1: 109.98.

Support 2: 109.76.

Support 3: 109.55.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/JPY approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

Price is approaching major resistance at 131.65 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect a strong reaction off that level to push price down to at least 130.41 support (Fibonacci retracement, fibonacci extension).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 96% and we expect a similar reaction off this level to follow the drop we're expecting on price.

Sell below 131.65. Stop loss at 131.99. Take profit at 130.41.

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NZD/USD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell

Price touched our entry level and shot up absolutely perfectly to our profit target. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 0.7319 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal resistance, Fibonacci extension) for a push down to 0.7224 support (Fibonacci extension, fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) once again.

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 91% where we expect a reaction from.

Sell below 0.7319. Stop loss at 0.7344. Take profit at 0.7224.

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AUD/USD forming a nice bullish reversal, time to start buying

Price is bouncing up nicely above major support at 0.8001 (Fibonacci retracement, fibonacci extension, bullish divergence) and we expect a strong bounce from this level to push price up to at least 0.8121 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major support above 8% and we can see bullish divergence vs price signalling that a bounce is impending.

Buy above 0.8001. Stop loss at 0.7956. Take profit at 0.8121.

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EUR/USD testing major support, remain bullish

Price has dropped and reached our buying area. We remain bullish looking to buy above major support at 1.1956 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, ascending support) for a push up to at least 1.2083 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, fill price gap).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major support above 6% and has started to bounce up nicely from that level, also displaying good upside potential for our rise.

Buy above 1.1956. Stop loss at 1.1901. Take profit at 1.2083.

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USD/CHF forming a nice reversal, remain bearish

Price has started to form a really nice reversal signal. We remain bearish looking to sell below major resistance at 0.9582 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, bearish divergence) for a push down to at least 0.9483 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong resistance below 100% and we expect a corresponding drop from that level similar to the one we're expecting on price. We can also see bearish divergence vs price signalling that a reversal is impending.

Sell below 0.9582. Stop loss at 0.9625. Take profit at 0.9483.

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USD/JPY approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

Price is approaching major resistance at 110.18 (Fibonacci retracement, filling price gap) and we expect a strong reaction off this level to push price down to 107.95 (Fibonacci retracement, filling price gap).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 97% and we expect a strong reaction off this level too.

Sell below 110.18. Stop loss at 111.10. Take profit at 107.95.

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 13, 2017

There are no major moves ongoing in the US Dollar Index, as it remains capped by the 200 SMA on H1 chart. As long as the index stays below that indicator, one should expect a leg lower to test September 8th lows, near 91.00. To the upside, the dynamic resistance of the 200 SMA is the first hurdle to overcome, ahead of the resistance level of 93.09.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04

H1 chart's support levels: 91.67 / 90.30

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 91.67, take profit is at 90.30 and stop loss is at 93.04.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 13, 2017

The pair is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.3271 and it's waiting for clues to follow the upside trend across the board. Ahead of BoE's interest rate decision, GBP/USD could remain in sideways around that area. However, a pullback should take the pair to test the support zone of 1.3113. MACD indicator remains on the positive territory, calling for more rallies in the pair.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3271 / 1.3367

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3209 / 1.3113

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3271, take profit is at 1.3367 and stop loss is at 1.3176.

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Brent: OPEC looks out for itself

While the oil market is following closely the restart of the refineries, the dynamics of US reserves and the impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma, OPEC is beginning to return investor attention to its person. Citing sources who are familiar with the matter, Bloomberg said in August the cartel reduced production by 109, 000 b/d.

Increased activity is shown by Saudi Arabia, which not only discussed with Venezuela the possibility of extending the agreement on the reduction of production beyond March 2018, but also issued a rather optimistic forecast for the second half of this year. According to Riyadh, along with a decrease in production by 1.8 million b/d compared with the level of October 2016, an increase in global demand to 2 million b/d will benefit the oil market. These factors make it possible to count on a reduction in world reserves, which currently are 219 million barrels higher than the average for the last 5 years and amounts to, according to the International Energy Agency, 3.02 billion barrels.

However, Saudi Arabia's charity begins at home. The U.S. forecast growth of their own reserves by 2.3 million barrels by the end of the week by September 8 after the first increase in the last two months by 4.6 million barrels. It should be noted that the turn of the trend can go faster: Goldman Sachs predicts that US inventories will jump by 40 million barrels in the next few five-day periods amid a contraction in demand for 900,000 b/d in September and 300,000 b/d in October. At the same time, the destructive power of Harvey's influence on the US oil market will be higher than that of Irma, as Texas per capita consumes twice as much oil as Florida. Capital Economics agrees with the view of Goldman Sachs. The company compares both hurricanes with Katrina, under the influence of which, in 2005, demand fell by 2% y/y over the next three months.

Thus, the American market is full of internal negative factors, which forces speculators to increase short positions on Brent. Long positions in the week to September 5 remained virtually unchanged, which somewhat reduced net long positions. Nevertheless, the indicator continues to stay near the maximum mark since May.

Dynamics of speculative positions for Brent

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Source: Bloomberg.

Further dynamics of Brent and WTI will depend on the speed of the refineries' restart and on the dynamics of US stocks. If the pessimistic forecasts of Goldman Sachs and Capital Economics are not justified, and oil refining will rebound much faster than it is commonly believed in the market, then futures can continue the upward trend. Moreover, the slowdown in the US economy in the third quarter under the influence of hurricanes can affect the plans of the Fed and will shift the time frame for raising the federal funds rate for the second half of 2018, which will weaken the US dollar.

Technically, the return of Brent prices to the resistance at $ 54.7 per barrel with the subsequent successful push will increase the risks of continuing the rally in the direction of the target by 161.8%, 200% and 224% on the AB = CD pattern.

Brent, daily chart

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