NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 14, 2017

analytics59ba7f5c4c4df.png

Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested earlier in September.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 14, 2017

analytics59ba7eec64f89.png

Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

analytics59ba7ef5ddf8d.png

Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, If bearish pullback persists below 1.1800 and 1.1700, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 can be watched for a valid BUY entry

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 14, 2017

USDJPYM30.png

All our long targets which we predicted in our previous analysis has been hit. USD/JPY is still expected to continue the upward movement. The pair is holding on the upside and is trading above its rising 50-period moving average, which plays a support role. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level and lacks downward momentum.

Hence, as long as 110.25 holds on the downside, look for a further advance with targets at 110.90 and 111.30 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 110.25 with a target at 110.90.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 110.25, Take Profit: 110.90

Resistance levels: 110.90, 111.30, and 111.80 Support Levels: 109.90, 109.60, 109.05

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 14, 2017

USDCHFM30.png

All our upside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair is trading above its rising 50-period moving average, which plays a support role and maintains the upside bias. The relative strength index is mixed with a bullish bias.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that the producer-price index (PPI) grew 0.2% on month in August, compared with +0.3% expected and -0.1% in July. Investors are closely watching the consumer-price index (CPI) report due later today, which will be tracked by the U.S. Federal Reserve as reference for scheduling the next interest rate rise.

Hence, as long as 0.9605 holds on the downside, a further upside to 0.9660 and even to 0.9705 seems more likely to occur.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9615, Take Profit: 0.9705

Resistance levels: 0.9705, 0.9750, and 0.9800

Support levels: 0.9580, 0.9545, and 0.9500

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 14, 2017

GBPJPYM30.png

All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. GBP/JPY is expected to continue its upside movement. The pair broke above the declining trend line, which confirmed a negative outlook. The upward momentum is further reinforced by the risining 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is bullish and is calling for another upside.

Hence, as long as 146.30 is not surpassed, look for a new test to 148.50 and even to 149.10 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 146.30 with the target at 145.30.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 146.30, Take Profit: 148.50.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 148.50, 149.10, and 149.60

Support levels: 145.30 144.80, and 144.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for September 14, 2017

analytics59ba775daffea.png

Recently, the Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,316.80 in a high volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found that price is trading inside of a downward channel, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential downward targets. I got FE 61.8% at the price of $,1313.40 and FE 100% at the price of $1,300.00. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,337.00

R2: $1,347.00

R3: $1,353.50

Support levels:

S1: $1,321.35

S2: $1,315.45

S3: $1,305.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 14, 2017

NZDUSDM30.png

NZD/USD is under pressure and expected to continue the downside movement. Despite the recent rebound from 0.7220 (the low of September 13), the pair is trading below its key resistance at 0.7265, which should limit the upside potential. The declining 50-period moving average is playing a resistance role. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50.

To conclude, below 0.7265, look for a new drop with targets at 0.7170 and 0.7145 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates the bullish position. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7290, 0.7305, and 0.7350

Support levels: 0.7170, 0.7145, and 0.7100

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for September 14, 2017

analytics59ba727f9dc00.png

Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3337 in an ultra high volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found extension in an average true range and a fake breakout of yesterday's high at the price of 1.3329, which is a sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. I placed Fibonacci retracement levels to find potential downward targets. I got FR 38.2% at the price of 1.3270, FR 50% at the price of 1.3250 and FR 61.8% at the price of 1.3225.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3345

R2: 1.3355

R3: 1.3370

Support levels:

S1: 1.3320

S2: 1.3305

S3: 1.3297

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for September 14, 2017

EUR/GBP has been impulsively bearish after bouncing off the resistance level of 0.9267 recently. GBP has been the dominant side of this pair whereas due to mixed economic reports EUR could not refrain from the drastic fall. Today, the Bnak of England released the statement with the policy decision to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 0.25% as widely expected. The Asset Purchase Facility report was also published unchanged as expected at 435B and MPC Official Bank Rate votes were published as expected at 2-0-7 from the previous figure of 2-0-6. Besides, the Monetary Policy Summary was quite hawkish as well that helped the currency to gain more momentum and create pressure over EUR today. On the other hand, today French Final CPI report was published unchanged as expected at 0.5%, which did not quite help the currency to show some strength over GBP today. As a result GBP is expected to dominate further. GBP is currently expected to gain more in the coming days against EUR until the eurozone comes up with better high impact economic reports to push the price higher again.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price recently reached the support area of 0.8850 – 0.8950. If the price shows a daily close today above the least support of 0.8850, we can expected a further bullish move in the coming days with a target towards 0.9267 again. On the other hand, if the price breaks below 0.8850 with a daily close in the coming days, then we will consider sell positions with a target towards the 0.8530 support level. As the price remains above the support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

analytics59ba646a2f9e2.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for September 14, 2017

EUR/USD: A valid signal has been generated at last on EUR/USD. The EMA 11 has crossed the EMA 56 to the downside and the Williams' % Range period 14 has gone into the oversold region. Price is now below the resistance line at 1.1900, going towards the support lines at 1.1850 and 1.1800.

1.png

USD/CHF: There is now a valid bullish signal on USD/CHF, which has gone into the opposite direction to EUR/USD. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the Williams' % Range period 14 is in the overbought region. A further bullish movement is anticipated as price goes towards the resistance levels at 0.9700 and 0.9750.

2.png

GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair has continued to go upwards in spite of the correction it experienced yesterday. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the 4-hour chart, and a further bullish movement is anticipated today and tomorrow as price goes towards the distribution territories at 1.3300 and 1.3350.

3.png

USD/JPY: This pair is in a bull market, which has been going upwards, following the gap-up that was witnessed at the beginning of this week. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the market would gain at least, another 100 pips before the end of this week. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they are supposed to have impact on the market.

4.png

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair has gone upwards this week, enabling a bullish bias on the market. There has been a minor bearish retracement, which occurred yesterday, therefore giving opportunity to purchase the instrument at slightly higher prices. The next targets are the supply zones at 131.50, 132.00 and 132.50, which may be attained within the next few trading days.

5.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for September 14, 2017

analytics59ba6948107db.png

The Bitcoin (BTC) is trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $3,612 driven on the news that over the past week, bitcoiners everywhere have been focused on the speculative news about China 'banning' bitcoin and wondering if the stories were true. According to recent reports from local media and the country's National Internet Finance Association (NIFA), bitcoin is not 'illegal,' but exchanges may face tighter regulatory supervision and might have to cease operations temporarily until they are licensed. Technical picture is still very bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, the price is near the critical support at $3,605 and my advice is to watch for potential breakout of support to confirm further lower price. The next downward target will be set at the price of $3,186. Few bearish patterns are broken in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control.

Support/Resistance

$3.945 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$3.605 – Projected pattern target (support)

$3.186 – Short-term downward target

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar tired of his own weakness

The dollar approached the major day of the week with an impressive increase in optimism. A sharp decrease in political tension and the extension of the government's financing period for 3 months are adequate enough to exhibit signs of changes in sentiment regarding the prospects for the world's major currency.

On the eve of US President talks, Trump held talks with Democrats which is skillfully disguised as a friendly dinner. Apparently, the draft tax reform has passed preliminary approval that has significantly increased the chances of passing it in the Congress. According to CME, The market reacted instantly since there is a probability of an increase in the rate in December rose to 47% that clearly showed a change in mood.

Meanwhile, it seems that the actual macroeconomic indicators are not convincing enough. The producer price index in August rose since May which supports the price recovery after the failure but still did not impress the market. Prices rose by 2.4% year-on-year, which is significantly higher than July's 1.9% but below market expectations of 2.5%. Therefore, growth again appears insufficient to justify inflationary expectations.

analytics59ba0e612de9f.png

Today, a report on consumer inflation in August will be published while the forecasts are neutral. Experts do not expect a noticeable increase in the July report instead, it is assumed that the inflation remains below the long-term average and below the target set by the Fed. Before the key autumn meeting of the Fed that will happen in less than a week, the data on inflation will significantly affect the mood of investors. Published on the eve of the business optimism index from NFIB, it showed that small business still expects a successful start on reforms. The data of the index showed a slight increase to 105.3 in August, against 105.2 a month earlier. Also, it holds near the maximum set immediately after the victory of Donald Trump elections last November.

The issue of reforms does not only concern Trump, but for the economy as a whole. The fact that Congress agreed to raise the ceiling on the national debt is an indicator of the uncoordinated position of Republicans and Democrats. A countermeasure were enforced whose goal is not to allow a government default and have time to consider and adopt a plan of action for reforming the economy in the next three months.

The fact that things are not going as they wanted can be observed from the dynamics of freight traffic across the United States. As follows from the data provided by the American Association of Railways, the volume of freight traffic this year barely exceeds the level of 2016 and significantly lags behind the two previous years.

analytics59ba0e720cb4d.png

The real economy looks weak which is not a secret for Trump, for the Fed and for Congress. In place of monetary stimulus measures, fiscal stimulus must be introduced. Hence, the warring parties in Washington are ready to sit at the negotiating table but at least the events of the last week clearly indicate progress on a number of key issues.

In fact, the dollar bulls were waiting for this particular moment. If it turns out that consumer inflation has a positive momentum today, the dollar will react to a sharp increase, as the market decides that the weakening of the trend is about to end.

Reports on retail sales and industrial production in August will be published on Friday. The forecasts confirm the conclusion that the expected weak figures of the experts for both groups of data will affect the deterioration of consumer sentiment in the end. In fact, there is less time for fluctuations, but one must assume that the market as a whole has already played out both excessive expectations for Fed's monetary policy tightening and the real weakness of the American economy. The dollar weakened for 8 consecutive months and now, it's time for positive news which will help turn global expectations.

Nevertheless, the dollar will not show confident movement before the meeting of the Fed on September 20 and it will most likely spend the remaining days in a wide range. Strong volatility is possible and the direction the market will be determined not earlier than a week.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for September 15, 2017

analytics59ba5485cf09e.jpg

Technical outlook:

The EURUSD pair has formed an interim resistance at 1.2092 levels and looks to be in an interim downtrend. As depicted here, the pair has unfolded into 5 waves from 1.2092 through 1.1925 levels respectively labelled as (1) or A (not shown). The subsequent corrective rally stalled at fibonacci 0.382 resistance at 1.1990/95 levels, labelled as wave (2). Furthermore, the pair is likely to go into its wave c drop and it should unfold into 5 waves lower towards 1.1800/20 levels going forward. Please note that the pair should be facing formidable resistance around 1.1915/30 levels and is expected to turn lower from there. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1999 levels while support is at 1.1820/30 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Please remain short and look to add further around 1.1915/30 levels, risk is at 1.2000 levels and a reward/target should be at least at 1.1820 levels.

GBPUSD chart setups:

analytics59ba586c228d6.jpg

Technical outlook:

The GBP/USD has formed a meaningful top around 1.3329 levels yesterday before reversing sharply. The pair is drifting sideways at the moment and should be looking to dip one more time towards 1.3150 levels at least, which is the immediate price support as well. Looking at the present wave count, GBP/USD should be poised to drop towards 1.3150 levels before deciding upon further trend. Please also keep the larger picture discussed last week in mind that GBP/USD has already peaked or should be very close to forming a meaningful top in near term. The previous wave 4 termination was around 1.3400 levels (seen on weekly chart) and 1.3350/60 levels should provide enough resistance. Hence, the upside remains limited and capped below 1.3400 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain short with stop above 1.3329 levels, immediate soft target is 1.3130/50 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for GBP rate decision to be out in 20 minutes, followed by US CPI data at 08:30 AM EST.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 14/09/2017

Global macro overview for 14/09/2017:

The better than expected data from the Australian job market contributed to strengthening of the AUD on Wednesday morning. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the country's unemployment rate remained at the 5.6% level in line with expectations. Moreover, the job market added 54.2k new positions in August, while analysts anticipated only a 17.4k gain. It was the sixth straight month of gains as employers continued to add payrolls at a faster pace. The number of full-time jobs rose by over 40k, following a revised drop of 19k the month before, part-time jobs by rose by 14k.

The Australian economy is still far to reach full employment, with the main concern being low wage growth, which refrains consumer confidence. The recent statements from Reserve Bank of Australia member Ian Harper have limited the hawkish enthusiasm represented by Governor Philip Lowe. Harper stated that domestic growth remained too weak for a near-term interest rate rise.Nevertheless, the recent set of data might well increase speculations that record-low Australian interest rates may be lifted sooner than the end of 2018, which is when futures markets currently suspect that a move will come.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price had deteriorated recently from the multi-month highs at the level of 0.8125 and now is back in the congestion zone. Nevertheless, as long as the golden trend line is not clearly violated (around 61% Fibo support at 0.7928) the short-term outlook remains bullish.

analytics59ba488c04e12.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 14/09/2017

Global macro overview for 14/09/2017:

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) leaves the interest rated unchanged at the level of -0.75% as expected. In the Monetary Policy Statement, SNB said that the Swiss Franc remains highly valued and the situation on FX market is still fragile. The SNB will remain active in the currency market while taking the overall currency situation into consideration. Moreover, SNB will continue to monitor the situation in mortgage and property markets as imbalances on mortgage and real estate markets persist.

In the statement the bank changed its assessment of the Franc's position, which is no longer "significantly overvalued", but "remains highly valued". This is an important change in the rhetoric as the SNB is trying to prevent the Franc appreciation in order to "reduce the attractiveness of Swiss Franc investments and thus ease pressure on the currency." The SNB conditional inflation forecast has been slightly revised upwards compared to June statement. For the current year, the forecast has risen marginally to 0.4%, from 0.3% in the previous quarter. For 2018, too, the SNB anticipates an inflation rate of 0.4% compared to 0.3% last quarter. For 2019, it now expects inflation of 1.1% compared to 1.0% last quarter.

In conclusion, the SNB is following the path of the ECB as it is hesitating yet to hike the interest rate from the negative territory to the positive one despite the mounting inflationary pressures and renewed higher projections. Nevertheless, as soon as the ECB will finally hike the interest rate or become more hawkish in the statements, then the SNB will definitely follow, causing a massive Franc's appreciation.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/CHF technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market reaction to the interest rate decision is limited so far, but the price of EUR/CHF is moving north. Nevertheless, the market is still trading inside of the range zone between the levels of 1.1255 - 1.1538 with the momentum indicator hovering around its fifty level. As long as any of the important levels are not violated, the price remains range bound.

analytics59ba392ce40ff.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY approaching major resistance, remain bearish

Forex analysis review
USD/JPY approaching major resistance, remain bearish

Bitcoin analysis for 14/09/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 14/09/2017:

Good news from South Korea for all Bitcoin investors has hit the newswires recently. The South Korean police have taken 216 Bitcoins from the person suspected of illegal activity using the cryptocurrency. However, the court ruled that the seizure was unjustified. This case is a groundbreaking precedent that makes the Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies safe from confiscation. Although South Korea is one of the countries most open to Bitcoin, it is also taking steps to regulate aspects such as legal status, stock exchanges, and ICOs. The court ruling in Suwon County can cause a considerable stir among financial watchdogs in the country as well as in the world. Such a position is different from that presented by the Chinese authorities. Bitcoin confiscation was defined as unjustified because "it can not accept standard, objective value". Moreover, it is suggested that BTC as a virtual currency has no material form, so it is practically impossible to confiscate.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture on the H1 time frame. The market keeps sliding towards the next important technical support at the level of $3, 588. However, the price tries to bounce from the oversold market conditions, but so far the technical resistance at the level of $3,992 still hasn't been violated. From the Elliott Wave Theory point of view, the market is in the last stage of the simple ABC correction and should bounce soon.

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

analytics59ba319cd30cf.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 14/09/2017

Trading plan for 14/09/2017. A limited volatility was observed overnight, but the US Dollar is backed by the hope of the White House's success in implementing tax reform policies. AUD jumped on good data from Australia's labor market, although slight disappointment with readings from China hampered growth. Gold remains in reverse, Crude Oil goes slightly to the tops.

On Thursday 14th of September, the event calendar is super busy with important data releases. During the London session, the Swiss National Bank will release Libor Rate decision together with Monetary Policy Assessment. Later on, the Bank of England will release Interest Rate Decision, Asset Purchase Facility, Official Bank Rate Votes, and Monetary Policy Summary data. During the US session, Consumer Price Index and Unemployment Claims will be posted from the US.

GBP/USD analysis for 14/09/2017:

The Interest Rate Decision, Asset Purchase Facility, Official Bank Rate Votes, and Monetary Policy Summary data are all scheduled for release at 11:00 am GMT. Market participants expect the Bank of England to leave the interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.25%, together with asset purchases at 435 bln. This interest rate decision and the interest rate votes and the statement might be critical for further BoE monetary policy. Market participants will find out how the recent data (prices rising significantly faster than the Bank of England's target and weaker wage pressure) will affect decision-makers' views on optimal interest rates. The key question is whether Haldane will support Saunders - McCafferty in an effort to immediately raise the price. The other important issue is the overall rhetoric of the BoE statement. If market participants find out that the overall tone was more hawkish than the last one, then the British Pound might appreciate a lot across the board (the markets will be discounting a possible future rate hike).

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. After a breakout above the recent technical resistance at the level of 1.3267, the price has made a new high at the level of 1.3328 and the reversed back towards the last internal demand zone. Currently, the market might be developing the Head and Shoulders pattern at the end of this rally with a neck line at the level of 1.3160. Violation of this level will open the road towards the next technical support at the level of 1.3126 and below. A lack of interest rate hike and/or dovish tone of the statement support the bearish view.

analytics59ba2e2a03df8.jpg

Market Snapshot: NZD/USD down after political news

The price of NZD/USD plunged from 0.7245 to 0.7210 after the publication of the latest poll before the New Zealand parliamentary elections. The results point to the Labor Party's dominance (44 percent, 43 percent) prior) over the current ruling National Party (40 percent, 39 percent prior). The Labor Party's program is negatively evaluated from an economic point of view and harms NZD, although the initial reaction is slowly extinguished. The golden trend line is the key dynamic support for the bulls.

analytics59ba2e35433cb.jpg

Market Snapshot: US Dollar Index at the trend line resistance

The price of US Dollar Index has managed to bounce from the oversold market conditions and currently has hit the golden trend line resistance around the level of 92.54. It is a key level for the price for now, as a breakout higher would mean an immediate test of the next technical resistance at the level of 93.35, or a failure would mean a lower high in place and another slide towards the support at the level of 91.02.

analytics59ba2e3f5570e.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 14, 2017

The Dollar index is showing signs of strength. We mentioned in previous analysis that Dollar bears should be very cautious because we had warning signs of a possible strong bounce in the index. The index is now challenging resistance that if broken could confirm that we are in a bigger bounce towards 96-97. However my main view remains bearish looking for a move below 90 over the coming weeks.

analytics59ba2821e39b1.png

In the 4-hour chart the Dollar index is trying to break out of the Ichimoku cloud resistance. Price is now at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 93.35. This important Fibo resistance is at the same level with the Kumo. Dollar bulls need to be cautious here for a possible rejection. Support and trend change level for the short-term is at 91.70.

analytics59ba28f9aca01.png

On a daily basis the Dollar index is testing the kijun-sen resistance level at 92.50-92.60. Breaking above this level will push the index towards the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud near 93.80-94. As long as the index is above 91.70 the chances of a bigger bounce are higher. However longer-term trend remains bearish and this bounce is considered as a selling opportunity.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for September 14, 2017

Gold price is pulling back as we expected. We warned that there were overbought signs and that Gold price would need a pull back towards $1,330-$1,320. This pull back could extend towards $1,300, however our longer-term view remains bullish and we see this as a buying opportunity.

analytics59ba26c28102e.jpg

Black line - trend change level

Gold price is breaking below the 4-hour Kumo support. This implies that more downside should be expected. Gold price could extend the decline lower for an equal leg down similar to the first part of the decline. The target would be at $1,302. However we should also keep an eye on the resistance and trend change level at $1,334. Breaking above it will confirm the pull back is over.

analytics59ba274a548fa.jpg

On a daily basis the close below the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) implies that the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) will be tested. Trend remains bullish. Price should continue towards $1,380-$1,400 once the pull back is over. Kijun-sen support is at $1,308.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 14, 2017

analytics59ba1e2b6f635.png

Wave summary:

Red wave iv ideally completed with the test of 1.6327 and red wave v to above 1.6690 should be developing. A firm break above minor resistance at 1.6488 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.6569 will confirm that wave iv has completed and red wave v higher is developing for a rally towards 1.6883.

R3: 1.6624

R2: 1.6569

R1: 1.6522

Pivot: 1.6488

S1: 1.6395

S2: 1.6327

S3: 1.6309

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 1.6395 and we have placed our stop at 1.6295. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy EUR upon a break above 1.6488 and use the same stop at 1.6290.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 14, 2017

analytics59ba1cdaa3742.png

Wave summary:

As long as support at 129.35 is able to protect the downside, as long will we be looking for more upside pressure towards 134.80 and ideally a continuation higher to the ideal wave (D) target at 137.36. Only an unexpected break below support at 129.35 will indicate that wave (D) has completed early and wave (E) already is developing.

R3: 132.67

R2: 132.19

R1: 132.00

Pivot: 131.50

S1: 131.00

S2: 130.85

S3: 130.65

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 130.10 with stop placed at 130.65. Take profit is placed at 137.15.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 14, 2017

EURUSD.jpg

When the European market opens, some economic data is due today such as French Final CPI m/m. The US will present its statistics such as Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1945.

Strong Resistance:1.1938.

Original Resistance: 1.1927.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1916.

Target Inner Area: 1.1888.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1860.

Original Support: 1.1849.

Strong Support: 1.1838.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1831.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sept 14, 2017

USDJPY.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the Revised Industrial Production m/m and the US will release a series of economic reports such as Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 111.21.

Resistance 2: 110.99.

Resistance 1: 110.70.

Support 1: 110.50.

Support 2: 110.28.

Support 3: 110.07.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 14, 2017

NZDUSDH4.png

Overview:

  • Pivot : 0.7293.
  • The NZD/USD pair is moving in the bullish trend from the support levels of 0.7231. Right now, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that it is still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.7231, which coincides with a golden ratio (23.6% of Fibonacci). Hence, the first support is set at the level of 0.7231. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.7231. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the price of 0.7231 with the first target at the level of 0.7343. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.7343. Moreover, the pair could climb towards the double top (0.7393). However, it would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7181.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 14, 2017

USDCHFH1.png

Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 0.9580 yesterday. The level of 0.9580 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 30. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 0.9624 with the first target at the level of 0.9679. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.9679 and further to the level of 0.9710. The level of 0.9710 will act as strong resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.9710. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.9549, then this scenario may become invalidated.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/JPY reversing from major resistance, remain bearish

Price is reversing very nicely below major resistance at 131.96 (Fibonacci extension, Elliott wave theory) and we expect a strong reaction from this level to push price down to at least 130.71 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing a drop from our 96% resistance with good downside potential.

Sell below 131.96. Stop loss at 132.40. Take profit at 130.71.

analytics59b9da542a57e.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/JPY approaching strong support, prepare to buy

Price is approaching major support at 87.91 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) and we expect a strong bounce from this level to push price up to at least 88.56 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) still remains above our ascending support which is holding up our bullish momentum really nicely. Only a break of that ascending support line would trigger a bearish change in momentum.

Buy above 87.91. Stop loss at 87.45. Take profit at 88.56.

analytics59b9da1be3e44.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD approaching major support, prepare to buy

Price is approaching major support at 0.7966 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) and we expect to see a strong bounce from this level to push price up to at least 0.8051 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong support above 8% where we expect a further bounce from.

Buy above 0.7966. Stop loss at 0.7935. Take profit at 0.8051.

analytics59b9d9ed129c5.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD approaching major support, prepare to buy

Price continues to drop further and is fast approaching major support at 1.1829 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support) and we expect a strong bounce from this level to push price up to at least 1.1926 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance) once again.

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong support above 4.1% where we expect a bounce from similar to the one we're expecting on price.

Buy above 1.1829. Stop loss at 1.1768. Take profit at 1.1926.

analytics59b9d9bcb6f0f.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

Price is approaching major resistance at 0.9675 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect to see a strong reaction from this level to push price down to at least 0.9578 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is approaching our 100% resistance once again where we expect a strong reaction from.

Sell below 0.9675. Stop loss at 0.9706. Take profit at 0.9578.

analytics59b9d98b42b86.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY approaching major resistance, remain bearish

Price continues to rise as we approach major resistance at 110.90 (Fibonacci retracement, multiple horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect a strong reaction from this level to push price down to 108.52 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 97% and we expect a drop from this level soon, similar to the one we're expecting on price.

Sell below 110.90. Stop loss at 111.84. Take profit at 108.52.

analytics59b9d9557c324.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for September 14, 2017

USDX was favored during Wednesday's session by the headlines of a U.S. tax plan to be revealed soon and it helped the greenback to recover positions against its major competitors. Currently, the index is consolidating above the 200 SMA and looks forward to the resistance zone of 93.09. MACD indicator is favoring to that scenario, as it remains on the positive territory.

1505322897_USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04

H1 chart's support levels: 91.67 / 90.30

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 91.67, take profit is at 90.30 and stop loss is at 93.04.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 14, 2017

GBP/USD did a retracement on UK data released during Wednesday's session and it looks like a leg lower could happen towards the support zone of 1.3209, at which a breakout should open the doors to test the 200 SMA on H1 chart. However, the risk to the upside still prevails and we would prefer that scenario with a first target placed at 1.3367.

1505322821_GBPUSDH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3271 / 1.3367

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3209 / 1.3113

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3271, take profit is at 1.3367 and stop loss is at 1.3176.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold follows Trump's Twitter

After it became known that North Korea, in honor of the 69th anniversary of its founding, did not launch another ballistic missile, and the consequences of the hurricane Irma were not as terrible as originally thought, gold was marked by the worst daily dynamics in the last two months. This recent rally was due to the escalation of the geopolitical conflict on the Korean peninsula, the fears of the impact of hurricanes on the US economy, and the weakness of the US dollar. These factors have for a while gone into the shadows, but hardly ever.

After the UN Security Council approved the expansion of the package of economic sanctions against Pyongyang, US stock indexes returned to growth and some of them managed to update to record levels. The increase in global appetite for risk is a "bearish" factor for the XAU / USD. The market was optimistic about the information that the final scale of sanctions was less than what Washington suggested, while Beijing and Moscow approved them. At the same time, an increase in economic pressure is unlikely to put North Korea on its knees. This means that geopolitics will certainly still make itself felt.

According to Goldman Sachs, hurricanes "Harvey" and "Irma" will slow the US GDP by 0.8 pp, which will potentially be able to keep the Fed from raising the rate for federal funds. Nevertheless, the damage assessment from Irma was reduced by insurance companies from $ 100 billion to $ 20-40 billion. In 2005, the Federal Reserve tightened its monetary policy even after the damage brought by the more serious hurricane, Katrina. Natural disasters, as a rule, lead to a temporary slowdown in GDP. And then, the economy accelerates and recovers because of reconstruction work.

The dynamics of the US dollar is of fundamental importance for precious metals.

Dynamics of gold and the USD index

analytics59b91e6dd7539.png

Source: Trading Economics.

After inflation accelerated in China and in Britain under the influence of energy prices, investors began to look with hope at US consumer prices. The market is full of rumors that the probability of an increase in the Fed rate for the month of December is too low and will soon grow. This will support the dollar. However, traders should still be cautious against excessive euphoria about this. The Federal Reserve monitors core inflation, which does not take into account the prices of petroleum products.

A more powerful driver for strengthening the "Dollar" can be the passing of tax reform through the Congress. Add to that the infrastructure projects, which are now associated with the elimination of the consequences of hurricanes. Donald Trump commented in his Twitter that in the near future, the review of the largest changes in the tax system in US history will begin. He called on legislators to approve them as soon as possible. At the turn of 2016 and 2017, expectations of the economic crackdown under the influence of the president's reforms forced the quotes of XAU / USD to collapse. If the idea is reanimated, then gold can go down south.

Technically, the inability of bulls to gain a foothold above an important resistance area of $ 1,245-1,251 per ounce indicates their weakness. The nearest support is near the $ 1320 mark, and in case of its successful assault, the bears will be able to develop a correction.

Gold, daily chart

analytics59b91e7924960.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin Analysis for September 13, 2017

Bitcoin has broken below the support area of $3,917.20 - $4,000.00 recently, which can be called a Crush of Bitcoin for a certain period. The move to break below the support area was quite impulsive in nature, which is expected to create more room for the price to move even lower in the coming days. Due to confusion and uncertainty over what China will do to Bitcoin exchanges and what decision they are taking on the issue of the Bitcoin permanent ban on the economy has put the cryptocurrency under pressure. Though there is no official announcement about the ban from the regulators yet, but amid confused market sentiment, the demand is currently not as it should be in the current market situation. Currently, the price is expected to retest the support area as new resistance before showing some more impulsive bearish pressure towards the Kumo Cloud. The Kumo Cloud is expected to hold the price as a support and create some corrective situation in the market before it reaches the support area of $2,617.60 - $2,867.30. The Chikou Span has broken below the candle support, which confirms the upcoming bearish move providing more confidence to bears to take the price much lower.

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a trade in your MetaTrader 4.

analytics59b959ab88baa.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of AUDUSD for September 13, 2017

AUD/USD is currently showing some bearish pressure after bouncing off the resistance area of 0.8020-80. The pair has been in a non-volatile bullish trend after breaking above the 0.7400 level. This week AUD economic reports were quite mixed helping the currency to push higher against USD, against which AUD is currently quite weak in nature. Recently, Australia's NAB Business Confidence report showed a decrease to 5 from the previous figure of 12; today's Westpac Consumer Sentiment data from Australia showed an increase to 2.5% from the previous negative value of -1.2%. On the UD side, today the PPI report was published with worse than expected figure at 0.2% in comparison with expectations for 0.3% and the previous figure of -0.1%. The core PPI report was also published with a worse figure at 0.1% (vs. 0.2% expectations and previous score -0.1%) and Crude Oil Inventories report showed growth to 5.9M from the previous figure of 4.6M, which was expected to decrease to 4.1M. Despite the downbeat economic reports from the US published today, AUD could not gain over USD, which does signal the severe weakness of AUD in comparison to USD. As of the current situation, USD is expected to show some short-term gains over AUD in the coming days until AUD comes up with better economic reports and events to push the price higher.

Now let us look at the technical view, after surging up higher in non-volatile manner the price has recently bounced off the resistance area of 0.8020-80. The price has formed the Bearish Regular Divergence recently and more bearish pressure is expected in this pair with a target towards the support area of 0.7750-0.7830. While the price remains below the resistance area of 0.8020-80, the bearish pressure is expected to continue further.

analytics59b9553ad785a.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com