Trading idea for GBP/USD

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Good day dear traders! I present to your attention, a trading idea for the GBP/USD pair.

As you can see on the chart below, there was a "false breakdown" of the lows of Thursday and Friday yesterday.

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Therefore, today, in order to increase the price of the pair, I recommend holding a position on the breakdown of the previous week's peaks, as well as fixing profits in the area of 1.25.

The risk / profit ratio can reach 1/5.

Good luck in trading and control your risks.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for April 7 - 2020

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We continue to look for a break above minor resistance at 0.8866 as a strong indication that wave iv has completed with the test of 0.8742 and wave v towards 0.9740 is unfolding. in the short-term, we see support near 0.8808 which is expected to protect the downside for a break above 0.8866. A break above resistance at 0.8911 confirms that the corrective low is in place and the final rally towards 0.9740 is developing.

R3: 0.8911

R2: 0.8866

R1: 0.8827

Pivot: 0.8808

S1: 0.8785

S2: 0.8767

S3: 0.8742

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 0.8760 and we have our stop placed at 0.8730

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Control zones for GBPUSD on 04/07/20

Closing yesterday's trading occurred below the WCZ 1/2 1.2268-1.2247. This indicates a change in priority to downward. The next goal of the fall will be the weekly control zone 1.2052-1.2009. The probability of the formation of a bearish model is 75%, so you need to look for patterns to sell the instrument.

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The reduction range is estimated at 230 points, so sales are already profitable from current levels. If the pair grows a little more, then this will give more favorable prices for selling.

An alternative growth model will allow returning to the limits of the formed accumulation zone. This will happen if the close of today's trading is higher than yesterday's peak. The formed absorption pattern of the daily level will indicate the emergence of a new large buyer.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 07/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

An ongoing coronavirus pandemic accelerates the development of the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). In a published tweet, Deutsche Bank cites that the risk of coronavirus spreading will further motivate authorities to consider digital alternatives.

According to earlier reports, China has quarantined its banknotes in an attempt to stop the spread of the coronavirus. Research published in 2008 showed that the influenza virus was able to survive on banknotes for up to 17 days.

Governments are increasingly perceiving cash handling as a potential infection risk factor. This will probably become an additional reason why you should aim for digital currencies. Another Deutsche Bank tweet quotes her saying:

"The pathogen requires adequate solutions every hundred years. The obvious place to start is to accelerate the inevitable transition to digital cash."

Interestingly, the experts' comments contradict studies published by Deutsche Bank at the end of January. According to the report, cash will remain in circulation for a long time, despite a decline as a payment method and will not be replaced in the near future by digital currencies.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made another higher high at the level of $7,390 after the breakout from the consolidation zone. Nevertheless, the rally has failed to continue and market has made a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern after the level of $7,390 was hit. If the bearish pressure will intensify again, then the price might move even lower towards the technical support located at $6,908 or even towards the level of $6,586.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $8,726

WR2 - $7,938

WR1 - $7,363

Weekly Pivot - $6,545

WS1 - $5,997

WS2 - $5,159

WS3 - $4,567

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP/USD for April 7, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, from the support line of 1.2166 (red bold line) the pair may begin to move up with the first target at the upper fractal 1.2485 (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this level, the continuation of the upward work is with the target of 1.2518 - a retracement level of 61.8% (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - neutral;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, an upward movement is possible with the target of 1.2518 - a retracement level of 61.8% (red dotted line).

An unlikely scenario: from line 21 of the middle EMA - 1.2309 (black thin line), work down with the target of 1.2096 - a retracement level of 38.2% (blue dashed line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR/USD for April 7, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, from the level of 1.0795 (closing of yesterday's candle) the pair may begin a pullback upward movement with the target at 1.0840 - a pullback level of 23.6% (red dashed line). If this level is reached, the upward work will continue with the target of 1.0965 - the retracement level of 38.2% (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price will try to start moving up with the target at 1.0965 - a pullback level of 38.2% (red dashed line).

An unlikely scenario: from a pullback level of 23.6% - 1.0840 (red dashed line), work down, with a target of 1.0758 - a pullback level of 76.4% (blue dashed line).

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 07/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Bank of Revolut said that all standard users will now be able to buy and sell cryptocurrencies supported in its banking application, although this will not apply to US residents for now.

Revolut planned to expand its cryptographic offer later this year. In an email to users, the bank's cryptography chief, Edward Cooper, said that growing concerns about the potential effects of the central bank's quantitative easing and currency devaluation have accelerated adoption.

Revolut - which raised $ 500 million in D series earlier this year - has enabled users to buy cryptocurrencies directly from the app since they added Bitcoin support in 2017. Although users can trade digital assets with other Revolut users, they cannot remove them from the app.

Revolut services were extended to the United States at the end of March. The bank said that new US customers will only have access to its basic functions. Additional services, such as the cryptocurrency buying service, will be added later.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $175.00 in the time of writing the analysis. Nevertheless, the bulls are still trying to make use of the momentum behind this move up and move higher towards the level of $176.78, which is a technical resistance for the price. On the other hand, if the bulls fail here, then the next technical support is seen at the level of $156.24 - $153.46. Please notice the increasing momentum on ETH/USD on H4 time frame chart during the last move up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $180.45

WR2 - $163.97

WR1 - $154.32

Weekly Pivot - $137.76

WS1 - $127.39

WS2 - $112.43

WS3 - $101.19

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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EUR/USD. Success of scientists in the fight against COVID-19: anti-risk sentiment declined, the dollar loosened its grip

The euro-dollar pair failed to gain a foothold in the seventh figure, although yesterday it even approached the support level of 1.0750 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). However, the price returned to the eighth figure during the Asian session on Tuesday, reflecting the uncertainty of dollar bulls. The pair shows a correction not due to the strengthening of the euro, but primarily due to the weakening of the US currency: the dollar index has been declining for several hours, heading to 99 points. This dynamics is due to the increased interest in risk, against the background of the latest news from the front of the fight against the epidemic. Although it is too early to talk about a turning point in the situation, some events allow us to look at the future with optimism.

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First, there are certain developments of scientists regarding the creation of a vaccine. In Australia, virologists announced a sensational statement that the antiparasitic drug Ivermectin is able to cope with Covid-19 in just two days – that's how long it took for this drug to defeat the coronavirus in a test tube. The results of this study have already been released in the Antiviral Research publication. Now it is necessary to conduct human trials – it is necessary to find out whether there is an effective dose of this drug that could be used safely for people. That is, the use of Ivermectin in the fight against coronavirus will depend on further preclinical and clinical studies. In other words, scientists have made a serious "bid to win" - and here it is worth adding that the above-mentioned antiparasitic drug has previously shown high effectiveness against the HIV virus, dengue fever, flu and zika.

Similar news came from Turkey. They tested the Covid-19 vaccine on animals and they developed antibodies. Now experts plan to test the new drug in humans. It also became known that American scientists have tested a vaccine against coronavirus in laboratory mice.

According to some experts, if we consider all these trials in aggregate, we can assume that the Covid-19 vaccine will appear in a few months – that is, much earlier than the previously announced deadlines (experts from the World Health Organization said that the reaction will not appear earlier, but in 12-18 months). Such prospects provided background support for risky assets, while the US currency ceased to enjoy increased demand.

It also became known that in several European countries – Italy, Spain and Germany – the number of deaths and new cases of coronavirus is steadily decreasing. For example, the Germans said yesterday that the number of new infections in their country has been decreasing for four consecutive days. In Italy, the lowest number of fatalities in the past two weeks was recorded on April 5. In addition, in this country, the number of patients who are in intensive care has decreased for the second day. And in China, more than one fatal case from Covid-19 was not registered in a day – for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic.

These trends have led governments in several European countries to begin preparing to ease quarantine measures. This information is unofficial – this is written by the British edition of the Financial Times, referring to its sources. According to them, France, Spain, Belgium and Finland are "among many" countries that have already set up expert committees to study the gradual reduction of quarantines and strict restrictions. It is highly likely that the quarantine will continue until the end of April, but the restrictive measures may be significantly relaxed in May. Especially if the positive trends regarding the spread of Covid-19 continue.

This news flow slowed the growth of the US currency throughout the market, as the demand for protective instruments decreased (gold, by the way, also shows a downward trend).

However, long positions on the EUR/USD pair are extremely risky at the moment. First, it is too early to say that the coronavirus has been defeated: despite some positive trends in some countries, the overall situation remains difficult: in particular, the number of deaths from the virus has exceeded 10,000 in the United States – this is the third indicator in the world after Italy and Spain. The head of the US health service has already said that the country should prepare for Pearl Harbor - that is, for many premature deaths. In France, 833 deaths from Covid-19 were recorded in the last 24 hours – the highest rate in the country for the entire time of the pandemic. In other words, many countries have not yet experienced the peak of the epidemic, so relatively rare news of an optimistic nature is drowned in the rest of the news stream.

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Secondly, the European currency is waiting for the results of the negotiations of the EU finance ministers. Let me remind you that representatives of Italy, France and Spain (that is, those countries where the largest outbreaks of the virus occurred) are lobbying for the introduction of so-called crown bonds. In turn, representatives of Germany, the Netherlands and Austria are against such an idea. Today, the ministers will try to agree on tools to support the European economy. If they can find common ground, the euro will receive significant support, since a second online meeting of EU leaders will take place on April 9 (i.e. on Thursday). If today's negotiations fail, the EUR/USD pair will return to the seventh figure again, despite the overall weakening of the dollar.

Therefore, if the day ends not in favor of the European currency, the pair may again approach and even test the support level of 1.0750 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart). If the negotiations are successful, we will see a correction-up to 1.0940 (the average line of the Bollinger Bands is already on the daily chart).

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 7 - 2020

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GBP/JPY is locked in a trading range between 132.70 - 134.72. As long as short-term important support at 132.70 is able to protect the downside, the possibility for a final spike to 134.72 and to 135.34 and maybe even closer to 137.24 looks possible

If, however short-term important support at 132.70 is broken, that will indicate wave iv has completed and wave v to below 123.99 is unfolding. This should be the last decline in the major decline cycle from 156.66 and once the low is in place a new major rally towards at least 156.66 may occur.

R3: 134.72

R2: 134.08

R1: 133.66

Pivot: 133.08

S1: 132.70

S2: 132.10

S3: 131.43

Trading recommendation:

We sold GBP at 134.40 with our stop placed at 135.40

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AUD/USD price movement for April 07, 2020

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AUD/USD is now forming a market maker buy model pattern since the 0.5987 level has already broken. There is a probability that this pair may overcome their nearest liquidity pool at 0.6215. As long as this pair does not retrace to 0.5981, it may move above 0.6215.

(Disclaimer)

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EUR/GBP to Hit Equal Low of 0.8765. Analysis For April 07, 2020

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As we see from the 4-hour chart, the nearest liquidity pool is at the equal low of 0.8765. It will be broken soon. If the pair passes this level, there is a high probability that EUR/GBP will continue its downward move to 0.8738 as the first target and to 0.8620 as the secondary target as long as the pair does not rebound higher than the 0.8864 level.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 07/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has hit the technical support at the level of 1.0767 and is trying to bounce higher. The current price action acts as there is a Double Bottom pattern made around the support, so the odds for a rally are quite high. The first obstacle is the technical resistance located at the level of 1.0888, but the oversold market conditions on H4 time frame chart might be helpful to the bulls. If they manage to break through this level, then in the same time, they will break out of the descending channel, and this should accelerate the rally towards the level of 1.0951. On the other hand, a failure to break out will likely result in deepening the move down and new local lows will be made. The next technical support is seen at the bottom of the swing at 1.0654 and 1.0635.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1359

WR2 - 1.1244

WR1 - 1.0981

Weekly Pivot - 1.0872

WS1 - 1.0612

WS2 - 1.0487

WS3 - 1.0228

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 07/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

After the lower boundary of the consolidation zone located at the level of 1.2244 has been violated, the GBP/USD pair has moved down towards the level of 1.2199 (low was made at the level of 1.2166). This low was made in a form of a Pin Bar candlestick pattern, so there is a bullish activity involved at this levels. Nevertheless, the next technical support for GBP is seen at the level of 1.2014 - 1.1957 and if this level is violated, then the bears will be in control of the price again. For now, despite the oversold market conditions, the outlook remains neutral to bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2628

WR2 - 1.2555

WR1 - 1.2356

Weekly Pivot - 1.2275

WS1 - 1.2111

WS2 - 1.2024

WS3 - 1.1831

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 7. Pound fell after news on UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Bulls aim for

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

News that the condition of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has deteriorated caused the pound to fall yesterday afternoon. Let me remind you that the prime minister was infected with coronavirus. However, the bulls managed to protect the support of 1.2150, which kept the pair in the side channel. Today, buyers need to urgently return the pair back to the level of 1.2315 in the first half of the day, which they failed to do yesterday, since only in this scenario will they be able to retain the advantage. Consolidating above this range will open a direct path to last week's high in the 1.2473 area, where I recommend taking profits. If the decline in GBP/USD continues amid the absence of fundamental statistics, it is best to return to long positions only after the support test of 1.2150, provided that a false breakout is formed there, or a rebound from the larger low of 1.1985, based on a correction of 60-70 within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Bears still control the market, showing themselves at every opportunity. Today, you can return to short positions only after an upward correction to the resistance of 1.2355, provided that a false breakout is formed there, which will be a signal to sell the pound in order to update the larger lows of 1.2150 and 1.1985, where I recommend taking profits. If the bears prefer to retreat again, as evidenced by the lack of active sales after a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2315, then I recommend returning to short positions only for a rebound from last week's high in the 1.2473 area.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the range of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper boundary of the indicator at 1.2320 will lead to a larger growth of the pound. Breakout of the lower boundary in the region of 1.2200 will increase the pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 7. Channel being formed for the euro, going beyond which will determine this

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Nothing has changed from a technical point of view. Although the bulls allowed Friday's lows to be updated yesterday, they still stayed above support 1.0772, which led to new purchases of EUR/USD in the expectation of an upward correction. Important fundamental data will not be published today, which allows us to expect a breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.0834. After this, a larger upward correction is expected against the background of profit-taking by bears, with a likely test of the high of 1.0897 and an update of the larger resistance of 1.0961, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on EUR/USD persists in the first half of the day after weak indicators for Germany and Italy, it is best to return to long positions only after updating the low of 1.0772, provided that a false breakout is formed, or immediately to rebound from the larger support of 1.0718. You should take note that a Eurogroup meeting will be held today, at which decisions can be made on the allocation of new aid to the economy, which will definitely support the euro.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Given the lack of demand for the US dollar as a safe haven asset at the end of last week and the inability of the bears to push the low of 1.0772 yesterday, there is a risk of ending the downward trend in EUR/USD. Sellers need to protect the 1.0834 range, where by analogy with yesterday the formation of a false breakout will be a signal to open short positions in expectation of the pair's fall to the lower boundary of the descending channel and to update the weekly lows with a break of the support 1.0772 and test a larger area 1.0718 where I recommend to take profit. In case the pair grows above the resistance of 1.0834 in the first half of the day, it is best to return to sales only after the test of a large resistance of 1.0897, or short EUR/USD immediately to rebound from the high of 1.0961.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the preservation of the probability of an upward correction in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper boundary of the indicator at 1.0830 will strengthen the demand for the euro. A break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the 1.0772 area will bring the euro to new lows.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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Control zones for EURUSD on 04/07/20

Keeping the price above the weekly CZ 1.0786-1.0769 indicates the presence of demand from major players. In order for the bearish momentum to continue, it will be necessary to close today's trading below this zone. This will open the way for a retest of the March low in the near term.

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The downward movement is still a priority until a reversal pattern is formed at a level not lower than the daily one.

An alternative growth model will develop if today's trading closes above yesterday's high. This will open the way for growth and a return to the lower limit of the average move of the previous week, located at the level of 1.0901. The probability of a return movement is high, so purchases will be profitable when you switch to the ascending model.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on April 7, 2020

EUR/USD

On Monday, in the absence of bright news, the euro traded in the range of 65 points, closing the day with a decline of 11 points. Trading volumes were at the same level as on Friday, when the euro fell by 50 points (on the stunning bad data on employment in the US), which indicates the closing of sales and the likely beginning of corrective growth. The Marlin oscillator on the daily scale shows the intention to turn around.

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The potential for correction is the line of the embedded price channel at 1.0954. It is possible for the euro to continue to decline with a probability of 40%, here the goal is to support the price channel at 1.0625.

Let's look at the details on a smaller scale chart.

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The price is in the consolidation range of 1.0768-1.0836 on H4. When the price goes above the upper limit of this range, it opens the way to the target range of 1.0900/27 (extremes of April 1 and March 31), and only after overcoming it, the price can reach the goal of 1.0954. Leaving the price below 1.0768 opens a bearish target of 1.0625.

Indicator readings on H4 are already moving into the bullish phase – the price has overcome the resistance of the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator is trying to move into the zone of positive values, having previously formed a weak convergence.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on April 7, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose by 89 points on Monday, which was helped by the general weakening of the US dollar as short positions are closed on the euro and the pound. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily scale chart has moved to the zone of positive values, and the corrective growth continues.

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The growth target is the 0.6196-0.6249 range formed by the line of the descending price channel and the February 2009 low. With the price reaching the level of 0.6249, it is possible to continue growth to the 0.6355 level, which the MACD line tends to reach. After the correction is complete, we expect the price to fall to the first significant support at 0.5825 - this is also the embedded line of the price channel of the higher timeframe.

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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has entered the growth zone on the four-hour chart, the price continues to struggle with the balance indicator line (red indicator). A price victory over this line (growth above 0.6130) will strengthen the upward mood of this currency pair.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 7. Boris Johnson is hospitalized. The British ignore the quarantine requirements and

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -52.2255

On Monday, April 6, the British pound was fixed below the moving average line, which indicated a desire to start forming a new downward trend. However, trading on Monday showed that the bears are not so eager and want to resume selling the British currency and buying the US dollar. Volatility continues to decline gradually, indicating calm market participants. However, with the advent of reassurance, the movement trend begins to leave the currency market. The pound/dollar pair spent the entire past week in a relatively narrow price range, which can not be called anything other than flat. The new week also started with an inarticulate movement. Thus, in the current situation, we believe that we need to wait for some time for developments. The pair should "detach" from the moving average and start a new trend. Alternatively, you should now trade on lower timeframes.

No important macroeconomic statistics were published on Monday. The UK and US calendars remained empty. They will be so on Tuesday, April 7. Thus, even if traders wanted to work out statistics, they simply would have nothing to work out. However, there were certain messages that deserve attention on Monday. The country's Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, was hospitalized because for several days he had a stable high temperature, which could not be brought down by anything. Recall that earlier Johnson was infected with "coronavirus" and in accordance with the rules of quarantine, self-isolated in his residence at Downing Street. In the morning, it was announced that the Prime Minister was sent to the hospital for a routine check-up, but later it became known that Johnson remains in the hospital for the night. It was also later reported that a meeting of the COBRA emergency committee to counter the "coronavirus" was held by Foreign Minister Dominic Raab, Johnson's deputy for the latter's illness. According to the latest and unconfirmed information, Boris Johnson will be connected to a ventilator.

At the same time, many media outlets note the complete insubordination of the British to the rules of quarantine. The country has already recorded about 50,000 cases of the disease, as well as 5,000 deaths from the epidemic. However, a large number of British citizens, especially in large cities, do not stay at home in quarantine, but regularly go out on the streets, not at all out of special necessity. For example, on Saturday, about 3,000 people visited Brockwell Park in London alone. People walk along the Thames embankment, relax, have fun, drink beer. According to journalists, almost no one wears masks, and no one observes the distance of two meters. The police are not able to cope with all the violators. And, to be honest, the fines for violating the quarantine are not so big, especially for the British, only about 60 pounds. In fairness, it should be noted that the rules of quarantine are not as strict as they could be. And for this leniency, the government of Boris Johnson has previously been criticized. In particular, the British are allowed to go out once a day to play sports. However, as noted by the British media, every citizen interprets this permission in their own way. Someone walks around the city, thinking that this is a sport. Someone is playing soccer with children in the playground. In general, it is not the majority of British citizens who are in self-isolation. Plus, it is impossible to check exactly what time a particular citizen is on the street on a particular day. Moreover, there are no restrictions on the time of this "one exit to the street per day". Thus, any Briton can legally leave the house for a walk at 8 am and go home at 10 PM, without violating any of the rules of quarantine. In the worst case, he will have to pay a "whole" 60 pounds fine. In Scotland, there was a humorous situation. The head of the Ministry of Health of Scotland, Catherine Calderwood, urged all citizens not to go out unless absolutely necessary, after which she twice left Edinburgh for her country home, located about an hour away. The media took a photo of Calderwood outside her city apartment, after which the head of the Ministry of Health came under a barrage of criticism and later resigned. "I didn't follow the advice I gave to others, I'm really sorry. What I did was wrong. I am very sorry," Ms. Calderwood said.

Meanwhile, Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain was evacuated from London to Windsor. It recorded the Queen's fifth address to the British population in the 68 years of her reign. The Queen urged British citizens to unite in the fight against "coronavirus" and expressed the hope that years later everyone can be proud of how we responded to this challenge. However, requests are requests, and the health sector the UK is experiencing serious problems with a lack of space in hospitals and a lack of necessary drugs to treat the virus. Personal protective equipment for doctors is also running out, and some hospitals use masks with an expiration date that expired in 2012. All doctors are begging British citizens not to leave their homes... According to medical experts, the UK has not yet passed the "peak" of the epidemic and can reach Italian levels in terms of mortality and morbidity. Government representatives have already warned citizens that in the event of a sharp increase in the number of people infected with the "Chinese virus", the health system may not be able to withstand the pressure. There aren't enough medicines or hospital beds for everyone. Therefore, there is an assumption that the system will simply not cope with 100,000 infected people... Perhaps now is the best time to tighten quarantine measures and increase penalties for non-compliance?

From a technical point of view, the pound/dollar pair is now squeezed between the Murray levels of "2/8" and "3/8". The pair has bounced from the first one only once, and from the second – three times already. Thus, we have formed a side channel. It is logical to assume that the exit of the pair's quotes from this channel will mark the resumption of the trend movement. Thus, we believe that the best solution now is to wait for the exit of the channel or trade between the upper and lower borders of this channel.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to decline and is already 157 points. However, the activity of traders on the pound/dollar pair still remains quite high, which should be taken into account when opening any positions. On Tuesday, April 7, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2149 and 1.2463. The flat has resumed at this time and is still limited by the Murray levels of "2/8" and "3/8", which are almost identical to the volatility levels.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2207

S2 - 1.1963

S3 - 1.1719

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2451

R2 - 1.2695

R3 - 1.2939

Trading recommendations:

On the 4-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has passed to side movement. Thus, it is now recommended to trade between the upper and lower border of the side channel. It is recommended to buy pound with the target of 1.2695 after fixing the price above the level of 1.2451. It is recommended to open new sell positions if the bears overcome the moving average and the level of 1.2207 with the first target level of 1.1963.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on April 7, 2020

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair went over the MACD line and the balance line (red indicator), but the price returned to the support of these indicator lines today in the Asian session, the Marlin oscillator showed an intention to turn down and there was a threat that the price could fall again. The signal level for further decline will be the price moving under the MACD line, below 108.73.

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The corrective growth could possibly continue after the price reaches the high of 109.39 yesterday. However, continued growth is limited to the range of 109.73-110.30. The price consolidations of mid-January and February, the March 2019 low and other record levels are in the range of 109.73-110.30.

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The price develops in the range of signal levels 108.73 and 109.39 on the four-hour chart. Overcoming the lower level opens the goal of 107.78, then it is possible to fall to 106.96.

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Control zones for AUD/USD on 04/07/20

After yesterday's growth, the pair broke through and consolidated above the weekly control zone 1/2 0.6080-0.6071. This allows us to talk about the continuation of growth. The first goal will be the weekly control zone 0.6179-0.6161. At the same time, developing in the upward direction becomes the main goal for the current week. Any decrease must be perceived as a correction.

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Growth will not be limited to a weekly control zone, so the next goal will be the maximum of the last week, and then the monthly short-term in April.

However, forming a deep correctional model may not follow. Thus, this will not allow you to get a favorable purchase price today. Despite this, purchases from current levels are not profitable, since they will require setting a stop loss below the current local minimum, which will not allow you to get a favorable risk-to-profit ratio.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 7. EU imposes retaliatory duties on US goods amid coronavirus epidemic

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - down.

Lowe linear regression channel: downward direction.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -87.1604

If you close your eyes to the completely crazy last month and a half in the currency market and only consider the trading on Monday, it may even seem that there is no crisis, epidemic and recession in the world. The euro/dollar currency pair moved so calmly and easily. The volatility was only 68 points, first the pair went up and then down, thus fully corresponding to the nature of the fundamental and macroeconomic background on Monday, April 6. And both backgrounds were simply not there on Monday. There was no macroeconomic background, and no more or less significant publications for the day. The fundamental background is the same. No high-profile speeches by top officials of the European Union and the United States. Moreover, traders have been completely unresponsive to any macroeconomic information that comes to their disposal for a month and a half. At what absolutely any. Thus, by and large, trading is now quite simple, since it makes sense to take into account only technical factors. Trends are easy to follow, reversals are quite smooth, and fast indicators, like Heiken Ashi, react in time to everything that happens. The only thing that marred such a convenient time for trading was volatility. The pair went through 200-400 points every day, which simply frightened average traders who are not ready to work with a tool that goes the same distance in a day as it did a month ago. Thus, we can even assume that over the past month and a half, the market has mostly been made by major players. Large banks, financial conglomerates and syndicates, large manufacturing companies, and so on. The share of private traders, of course, was also present, but it was definitely lower than before the crisis. Now, when the volatility slowly returns to normal, it returns a convenient time for ordinary traders. If during almost all of 2019, we have repeatedly said that the balance of power between the United States and the EU, between the Fed and the ECB, is clearly led by the Americans. In other words, we analyzed all the macroeconomic indicators and monetary policies and concluded that the dollar will become more expensive. Now, no such conclusions can be made simply. We have received quite a lot of important information from overseas regarding the labor market. All market participants realized that unemployment and the labor market are now a headache for Congress and the Fed. Unemployment and a weak labor market will pull the US economy down at the moment. However, what about Europe? Is it ever better in the EU than in the US? We believe not. The EU does not publish data similar to NonFarm Payrolls, there is no ADP report, and there are no weekly reports on benefits applications. There are only official unemployment rates. Thus, we believe that the unemployment situation is no better in the EU, since it has the same quarantine as in the United States, and the epidemic is no smaller. Based on this, and also taking into account the Fed's key rate cut to almost zero, we believe that now the euro and the dollar are in almost the same conditions. If you carefully consider the movement of the euro/dollar over the past month, it becomes obvious: at the moment, quotes have returned exactly to the place where the strongest growth began a month and a half ago. Thus, nothing has changed in the balance of power between the euro and the dollar over the past month and a half.

Meanwhile, the EU decided after almost two months to respond to the US for their expansion of duties on imports of steel and aluminum, which were introduced by Donald Trump on February 8. According to the European Commission, the list of goods from the United States that will be subject to duties is limited. Representatives of the EU believe that in the context of a global pandemic, partners should cancel their "unfair" duties, in particular on aluminum and steel. Since this did not happen, the EU introduces duties that will apply to lighters, furniture fittings and some other groups of goods.

At the same time, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said: "We need a Marshall plan for Europe. It is necessary to invest billions of euros today to prevent a disaster in the future." Naturally, we are talking about investing in the European economy to prevent its collapse as a result of the coronavirus epidemic. The head of the European Commission believes that the EU budget for 2021-2027 should be revised, as economic and social conditions have changed. All EU countries, according to Ursula von der Leyen, should show solidarity on this issue.

From a technical point of view, the downward movement has every chance of resuming, since the upward correction has not started, and the Heiken Ashi indicator has colored the last bars purple. However, firstly, there is now a high probability of a flat, since the price has returned to its original positions a month and a half ago, and the macroeconomic background is now absent, and, secondly, we still believe that the correction against correction option is relevant. It is in the area of the 1.08 level that we believe there will be an upward reversal with a further upward movement from the 1.10 area. As before, we advise not trying to guess the reversal of the pair, but trading strictly on the trend. No important macroeconomic publications are scheduled for April 7.

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The volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair remains at rather high values, but at the same time continues to decline every day. As of April 7, the average volatility is 113 points. We believe that markets continue to rebound at a slow pace. Today we expect a further decrease in volatility and price movement between the levels of 1.0687 and 1.0913. There is a flat at the beginning of the trading week, so in fact the volatility channel can be much narrower.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0742

S2 - 1.0620

S3 - 1,0498

The nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1,0864

R2 - 1.0986

R3 - 1,1108

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair maintains the downward trend. Thus, it is advised that traders either remain in euro-currency sales with the goals of 1.0742 and 1.0687, or wait for new signals for selling, since the Heiken Ashi indicator has already been turning up, indicating a correction. It is advised to buy the pair before traders reverse consolidate above the moving average line with the first goal of the Murray level "2/8" - 1.0986.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Results of April 6. Coronavirus begins to recede in Europe. Euro and pound

4-hour timeframe

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Average volatility over the past five days: 126p (high).

The first trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair was held in absolutely calm, Monday trading. Like at a time when there was no epidemic of coronavirus yet, and panic did not engulf the currency, commodity and stock markets. The euro/dollar pair has passed only 68 points during the day. And this is absolutely the lowest figure for the past month and a half. Thus, we can confidently say that market participants continue to calm down after an almost one and a half month period of chaos and panic. This conclusion suggests that in the near future the markets will begin to recover. And so far, it is precisely and only about restoring markets, not the economies of the United States or the European Union. Markets are tricky, but even during a pandemic and crisis, they cannot contract and fall constantly. We need, so to speak, upward corrections. Whoever says anything, the number one energy price in the world — oil — cannot be $20-25 per barrel. Theoretically, this is possible. For a short period of time, but not constantly, and not in for the long term. Oil prices have already begun to recover, because no matter how production declines, no matter how the transportation sector in each country of the world decreases due to quarantine, no matter how the demand for gasoline, fuel and oil itself decreases, it is not profitable to pump oil and only make a couple of dollars from one barrel. After all, it is absolutely obvious that there is no point in selling the most valuable asset at cost. The only problem is that large market players cannot always agree among themselves, but low prices are not profitable for all miners, and behind them, as a rule, are powerful countries that have influence in the international arena. Thus, we believe that the oil market will recover.

The latest news about the spread of the coronavirus also suggests that the epidemic is beginning to subside in Europe. Growth in some countries has been contained. For example, Italy is no longer a hotbed for the spread of the COVID-2019 virus, and Spain came out on top in Europe. However, in Spain, sooner or later, the incidence will decrease. Thus, for the first time in a long time, it is really possible to say that the epidemic can be localized in every country by introducing a strict quarantine. These are just the first steps on the way to complete victory over the virus. But they are done, which means that there are no new reasons for panic in international markets. The United States is the leader in the number of diseases in the world, New York in particular, which has become a hotbed of infection overseas. Following a series of pessimistic forecasts of 200,000 deaths in America, Donald Trump has finally made a statement that can support the US population. "We see a light at the end of the tunnel," Trump said during a regular briefing at the White House. "We hope that in the near future we will be very proud of the work done. It is impossible to be happy when so many people die, but we will be very proud of the work we have done to minimize the death rate," the US president said.

We would now like to review economic reports or analyze one or another aspect of the US or EU economy. However, unfortunately, on Monday, April 6, no important macroeconomic information was available to traders. Moreover, in addition to regular reports on the state of the economy of a particular country, no important economic information is now available to traders. The reason is simple - quarantine. The number one problem in the world right now is the epidemic. Losses from the pandemic will be calculated later. Now we need to stop the spread of the virus and minimize the negative effects on the economy. So, in fundamental terms, there is not much to talk about right now. Moreover, traders persist in ignoring any reports...

4-hour timeframe

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Average volatility over the past 5 days: 164p (high).

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its slurred movement on April 6. The pound/dollar pair seems to have resumed a downward trend on Friday, but as it was shown on Monday, traders have little desire to continue selling pounds. However, a price rebound from the critical Kijun-sen line could trigger a resumption of the downward movement. Most likely, not as strong as before. The average volatility over the past two weeks has decreased to 164 points per day, however, for example, today, the pair managed to pass only 117 points. This is still a lot, but it can not be compared with the previous values. Bollinger Bands are now directed sideways, and the MACD indicator is located near zero. Both indicators, thus, indicate the absence of a trend movement, in other words, flat. There were no important macroeconomic publications in the UK today. Only the index of business activity in the construction sector, which expectedly fell from February 52.6 to 39.3. No important statistics are also expected in the United States and Britain tomorrow, so volatility may continue to remain low (in current realities), and there may be no trend movement.

Recommendations for EUR/USD:

For short positions:

The EUR/USD pair maintains the prospects for a downward movement on the 4-hour timeframe, even though the MACD indicator has turned up. Nevertheless, the price continues to be near local lows, so there is no correction as such now. Thus, in euro sales, it is recommended to remain until the MACD indicator turns up (with a parallel increase in price) with the target of 1.0681.

For long positions:

It is recommended to buy the EUR/USD pair before consolidating the price above the Kijun-sen line, which will indicate the resumption of an upward trend. The first goal in this case is the resistance level of 1.1043.

Recommendations for GBP/USD:

For short positions:

The pound/dollar is trying to resume a downward movement. Thus, it is recommended to sell the pound in small lots with targets at levels 1.2153 and 1.2099, especially in case of a rebound from the critical line. At the same time, one should remember the high probability of a flat.

For long positions:

It will be possible to buy the GBP/USD pair before consolidating the price above the critical line with the first target level of volatility of 1.2427. Also in small lots.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com