Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 1, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Ethereum has been very popular this year, usually not for good reasons. Namely, network congestion and high gas costs often put gas in the spotlight. While the reason for speeding up these problems was the boom on DeFi protocols in Ethereum, some projects have already started work on a solution such as Synthetix (SNX).

Synthetix, along with other DeFi platforms such as Uniswap, Aave and Curve, is working closely together to introduce scaling solutions. According to a recent update, Synthetix struggled with high fees before being upgraded to a primitive L2 scaling version on September 24th. Dubbed the "Fomalhaut" update, this is the first phase of L2's migration to Optimistic Ethereum. As it was written on the Synthetix blog:

"This will be a network testing incentive to lower gas costs for SNX's small stackers."

This would make collecting prizes for small stakes cheaper as opposed to the hundreds of dollars deposited previously.

Thanks to Synthetix's plan to deal with congestion and high tolls, it has also managed to attract the attention of the DeFi community. With the growing importance of scaling solutions and DeFi, SNX has also reached the quotes on Bitfinex and Gemini.

Technical Market Outlook:

The local low at the ETH/USD pair was recently made at the level of $350 and since then the market bounced towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement again. This Fibonacci level is located at $362.92 and if clearly violated, then the bulls will eye the next technical target seen at $369,37 and $375.52. If this two levels are violated, then the bulls will regain the control over the market for longer. The momentum had reversed as well and now is on the neutral level, pointing north.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $446.64

WR2 - $410.95

WR1 - $384.24

Weekly Pivot - $347.99

WS1 - $319.88

WS2 -$284.46

WS3 - $256.92

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 1, 2020

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Overview :

  • Pair : USD/JPY (US dollar/Japanese yen).
  • Expertise : Technical analysis.
  • Average time frame of trades : 1 day to 2 days.
  • Trend : Sideways channel.
  • Forecast : Bullish scenario.

It is looking at a standard chart pattern. Buyers are trying to form a Likely bullish secondary higher top inside the minor retracement zone (105.34), while the chart shows that the trend of USD/JPY pair movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel.

The market showed signs of instability at the area of 105.34 - 105.71 . Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 105.34 and 105.71.

The first resistance level sets at the price of 105.71. 1. So, above the price of 105.71 will indicate the buying is getting stronger with potential upside targets coming in at the level of 105.98.

But before opening any long buying position, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area (105.34 and 105.71). Hence, we need to wait until the sideways channel has completed.

We foresee the current rise will remain within a framework of correction. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 105.71, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 105.71 (the level of 105.71 coincides with the double top too).

The level of 105.71 will act as strong resistance and the double top has already set at the point of 105.71 .

Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bearish yet. Buy deals are recommended above the first support at the level of 105.34 with the first target at 105.71.

If the trend breaks the resistance level of 105.71, the pair is likely to move upwards continuing the development of a bullish trend to the level 105.95 in order to test the daily resistance 2.

From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 105.95 and further to the level of 106.25.

Otherwise, if a breakout happens at the support level of 105.06, then this scenario may become invalidated.

Indicators :

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  • RSI (14) is seeing major support above 40 where we expect further upside movement from.
  • MACD (50, 100, 9) is seeing major resistance and a bearish divergence vs price also signals that a reversal is impending because of the saturation condition.

Trading recommendations:

  • On the four hour chart :
  • According to previous trades, the USD/JPY pair has still been trapping between 105.06 and 105.95.
  • Buy above 105.06 with target at 105.71, 105.95 then 106.25.
  • Below 105.00 look for further downside with the first target of 104.66, then 104.01.

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Trading tips :

  • R3 and S3 are considered as clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility though it is possible to pass them through.
  • In case of the breaking news release that may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 and R3 or S2 and S3.

Major levels :

  • Resistance 3 : 106.25
  • Resistance 2 : 105.98
  • Resistance 1 : 105.71
  • Pivot Point : 105.34
  • Support 1 : 105.06
  • Support 2 : 104.66
  • Support 3 : 104.01
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for October 1, 2020

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Overview :

  • Pair : AUD/USD (Australian dollar/US dollar).
  • The main trend : Bearish.
  • The secondary trend : Bullish.
  • Volatility : High.
  • Forecast bias : Uptrend in short term.

Australian dollar has shown slight gains against US dollar during today's Euro session. The AUD/USD pair traded between 0.7007 and 0.7150, it reached 0.7150, which was the highest price for the pair on record since 25th September 2020.

The AUD/USD pair may grow in coming hours because the development of the first wave of the lower level of 0.7007 to continue towards the new top of 0.7150.

MACD is reversing upwards preserving a buy signal. It is seeing major support above the price of 0.7082 where we expect further upside movement from.

Moreover, RSI (14) sees a bearish exit of our climbing resistance-turned-support line signalling that it will likely be seeing some bullish momentum 0.7082 - 0.7100.

It seems that the AUD/USD pair has completed the correction pattern therefore buyers can buy from the support levels of 0.7007, 0.7082 and 0.7100.

A rebound from 0.7082 as from resistance, followed by a breakup of 0.7082 may become a signal for new purchase with the first target at 0.7204. The golden ration is set at the level of 0.7204 On the H1 chart.

Furthermore, the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the entire rally between 0.7082 and 0.7204 is also seen towards 0.7255 levels.

It should be noted that another point of convergence is that previous resistance turned support is around 0.7082 sign. Probabilities remain high for a bullish bounce if prices reach there again.

In other words, buy orders are recommended above spot of 0.7080 with the first target at the level of 0.704. Additionally, if the trend is able to break through the first resistance of 0.7080. As a result, the pair will climb towards the double top (0.7325) to test it.

On the contrary, stop loss should always be in account. In consequence, it must set the stop loss below the second support level of 0.7007 (last bearish wave).

Conclusion (Signal) :

  • Bullish forecast.
  • Buy above the level of 0.7080.
  • Take profit 1 : 0.7204
  • Take profit 2 : 0.7255
  • Take profit 3 : 0.7320
  • Stop loss : 0.7007
  • Expected range of the AUD/USD pair : 0.7080 and 0.7320 (240 pips).
  • Implementation period: 1 - 2 days.

Technical levels:

  • Resistance 3 : 0.7325
  • Resistance 2 : 0.7255
  • Resistance 1 : 0.7204
  • Pivot Point : 0.7082
  • Support 1 : 0.7007
  • Support 2 : 0.6925
  • Support 3 : 0.6860

Technical tips:

  • Bulls are bidding at a lower price. Then it should become a bull's investor who believes that trend will rise because the market will be called for a bullish market (uptrend). Therefore, buy at a low price (bottoms).
  • Buying happens in a long amount of time.
  • Buy inexpensive and sell expensive.
  • The stop loss should always be taken into account.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 1, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has made a big step towards streamlining digital asset clearing in the form of securities, shortening the previous four-step process to three to reduce operational risk for broker-dealers.

The SEC issued a no-action letter stating it would not penalize any Alternative Trading System (ATS) broker that trades digital securities if it complies with the new guidelines.

According to the regulator, several ATS want to use the simplified model in cases where there is no trust over traded assets. Most ATS follows a four-step process: first, the buyer and seller send orders to the Dealership, second, the Dealership matches the orders, third, the Dealership notifies the buyer and seller of the matched transaction, and finally the transaction is settled bilaterally, between themselves or through their guardians. .

However, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) has called for more clarity on this process in cases where the broker-dealer cannot physically hold the assets.

Some broker-dealers felt that this four-step model put them at too much risk. ATS requested permission to improve the process. According to the no-action letter, this process would include:

Step 1 - Buyers and sellers submit their orders to the ATS, notify their trustees of their orders placed with the ATS and instruct their trustees to settle the trades in accordance with the terms of their orders when the ATS notifies the match trustees at the ATS;

Step 2 - ATS matches the commands;

Step 3 - ATS notifies the buyer and seller and their respective trustees of the matched transaction, and the trustees execute the conditional instructions.

While the document expresses SEC employees' view of the enforcement, and is not a legal ruling, it is further evidence that regulatory oversight of virtual assets is becoming more sophisticated and nuanced.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair keeps trading inside of the narrow consolidation zone located between the levels of $10,586 - $10,890. The bulls were not strong enough to break back above the trend line and the price started to consolidate horizontally. Nevertheless, the momentum remains positive, but if the bearish pressure intensify, the sell-off might continue towards the level of $10,430 and below. Weekly time frame trend remains up, but to continue the higher time frame trend, bulls must violate the supply zone located between the levels of $11,062 - $11,233.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,934

WR2 - $11,451

WR1 - $11,105

Weekly Pivot - $10,558

WS1 - $10,238

WS2 -$9,737

WS3 - $9,392

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for October 1, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the level of 1.1696 (low at the level of 1.1685) and is testing the short-term trend line resistance again. There is a 50% Fibonacci retracement level located at 1.1742 as well, so the breakout above this resistance cluster (Fibonacci, horizontal line and trend line) might be hard. Nevertheless, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1772 and 1.1790. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1710 and 1.1696. Only a sustained breakout above the level of 1.1758 would put bulls back into control again. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2011

WR2 - 1.1939

WR1 - 1.1752

Weekly Pivot - 1.1683

WS1 - 1.1498

WS2 - 1.1408

WS3 - 1,1239

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for October 1, 2020

The pair traded upward on Wednesday and tested the resistance level 1.2943 (black bold line). Today, the price may continue to move up. According to the economic calendar, pound news is expected at 08:30 UTC, and dollar news is at 12:30 and 14:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may move upward from the level of 1.2924 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the target of 1.2984 - a 38.2% pullback level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the upward trend may continue with the target of 1.3079 - a 50.0% pullback level (blue dashed line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may move upwards with the target of 1.2984 - a 38.2% pullback level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the upward trend may continue with the next target of 1.3079 - a 50.0% pullback level (blue dashed line).

Another possible scenario: from the level of 1.2924 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) the price may move upward with the target at the resistance level 1.2945 (black bold line). Upon reaching this level, the price may decline to at least 1.2868 - a 50% pullback level (red dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on October 1. COT reports. Buyers resisted the pressure from sellers and returned

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

After several unsuccessful attempts to pull down the pound below support at 1.2819 in the first half of the day, buyers of the pound took the initiative and created a good signal to enter long positions. Let's figure it out. On the 5-minute chart, you can see how the bulls achieved a false breakout after failing to test support at 1.2819, and then they started to actively buy the pound. The bears tried to defend the resistance area of 1.2869, but the correction from there was no more than 25 points, afterwards there was a breakthrough of this range and GBP/USD sharply grew to a high of 1.2925, from where it was necessary to sell the pound immediately on a rebound, which brought about 30 points of profit. Unfortunately, we could not wait for the quote to return and test the 1.2869 level after its breakout, so I missed the movement from 1.2869 to 1.2925.

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At the moment, the situation in the pair is rather delicate. The 1.2925 level has been repeatedly smeared. Forming a false breakout on it in the first half of the day and returning to this area will be a good signal to buy the pound in order to continue the upward trend so the quote will rise towards the high of 1.2995, which is where I recommend taking profits. The 1.3089 area is a distant goal, and we can only reach it with good news on Brexit. In case GBP/USD falls, you can also look at long positions after testing 1.2869, which is where the moving averages pass, playing on the side of buyers. It is possible to buy the pound immediately on a rebound from a larger low of 1.2819, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. The lower border of the new ascending channel is also located there.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 22 did not record significant changes in the market, as everyone took a wait-and-see attitude and are watching how the economy will react to the next phase of growth in the incidence of COVID-19 and how the situation will develop further. Brexit. Most likely, the pressure on the pound will gradually return as the second wave of coronavirus spreads and the negotiations on a trade deal between the UK and the EU become more complicated, where there is not even a hint of a compromise between the parties. Short non-commercial positions slightly decreased from 41,508 to 40,523 during the reporting week. Long non-commercial positions also decreased from 43,801 to 43,487. As a result, the non-commercial net position remained practically unchanged at 2,964 against 2,293 weeks earlier.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Pound sellers have a very simple task. In order to return the market over to their side, it is necessary to pull down GBP/USD below 1.2925 and test it from the bottom up, which forms a good entry point for short positions. The initial goal will be to update support at 1.2869, which coincides with the moving averages and acts as the middle of the horizontal channel. Consolidating below this range will cause the pound to fall to the week's low in the area of 1.2819, which is where I recommend taking profits. In case the pair grows further, it is best not to rush to sell, but to wait until a high of 1.2995 has been updated, from where you can sell the pound immediately on a rebound based on a 30-40 point correction within the day. A more powerful resistance level, in case bears are not active at 1.2995, is located near the 31st figure - at 1.3089.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the upward correction will continue for the pair.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.2970 area will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2820 area.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar demand weakens as the US government hinted another stimulus package

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Regardless of strong economic figures, the US dollar fell against most currencies, as the US government hinted that another stimulus package could be adopted to help dampen the economic downturn.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are set to resume negotiations for this soon.

"New hopes of a boost in the US economy sparks desire to spend dollars," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions. " Such a rhetoric is really great, however, until it is finalized and signed, the market will be skeptical," he added.

Volatility also increased on the US dollar last Tuesday, largely due to the first debate of presidential candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Their discussion heightened fears that the results of the November elections could be challenged.

During the debate, aside from discussions on controversies regarding health and economics, personal insults as well as repeated interruptions were directed to Trump.

"The debate only confirmed that the election could be contested," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

Meanwhile, the dollar was supposed to rise due to improving US statistics, especially since jobs in the private sector have increased by 749,000, according to the ADP's national employment report. However, Andrew Hunter, senior economist at Capital Economics, said that despite the gains seen in the figures, employment is still well below pre-crisis levels.

"The labor market is still far from full recovery," Hunter said.

In addition, the latest GDP data for the United States show a 31.4% year-on-year collapse in the second quarter of 2020, the deepest drop in output since the government began recording in 1947.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on October 1. COT reports. ECB changes its attitude towards inflation. Euro bulls

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

A good signal to buy the euro from the 1.1685 level appeared yesterday afternoon, which I wrote in yesterday's afternoon review. Let's figure it out. On the 5-minute chart, you can clearly see how the bulls quickly took the initiative in their own hands after testing support at 1.1685, and the statements of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde regarding the shift in the eurozone's inflation target caused the single currency to grow, which was then picked up by the good data on the American economy. I also mentioned such a probability in yesterday's reviews.

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At the moment, the nearest levels have changed. Euro buyers should prioritize a breakout and then settle above the resistance of 1.1754, which will cause EUR/USD to grow to a high of 1.1796. Thel 1.1833 level will be a distant target, where I recommend taking profits. However, it is worth paying attention to the economic calendar. The report on activity in the manufacturing sector of eurozone countries will be released today, which may have a negative impact on the euro, as the indicators have a chance to significantly slow down in early autumn this year. In this scenario, it is best to wait for a false breakout to form in the support area of 1.1713, but I recommend buying EUR/USD immediately on a rebound but only from a larger low in the 1.1668 area, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 22 showed that both long and short positions increased, but there were more of the first ones than the latter, which led to an increase in the delta. Apparently, buyers are attracted to such a low euro rate for the first time in three months, even despite the risk of a second wave of coronavirus infection across Europe. Thus, long non-commercial positions increased from 230,695 to 247,049, while short non-commercial positions only increased from 52,199 to the level of 56,227. The total non-commercial net position also increased over the reporting week to 190,822, against 178,576 a week earlier, which indicates bullish market sentiment in the medium term. The more the euro falls against the US dollar, the more attractive it will be for new investors.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers of the euro need to protect resistance at 1.1754, and forming a false breakout on it will be a signal to open short positions in the pair. In this case, the main target will be a low of 1.1713, consolidation below it will form an additional entry point to short positions and return the market to the bears, making it possible for them to reach the 1.1668 area, where I recommend taking profits. Support at 1.1617 will be a distant target. If there is no critical activity when resistance is being tested at 1.1754, and the eurozone data turns out to be better than economists' forecasts, then it is best not to rush to sell, but to wait for the quote to grow to a new resistance at 1.1796 and sell the euro there immediately on a rebound based on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that an upward correction is about to form in the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

The breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.1740 will sustain the euro's growth. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.1695 area.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for October 1, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has made a local pull back towards the level of 1.2816 and then the bulls has took control over the market. They have manage to push the price above the technical resistance seen at the level of 1.2926 and made a new local high at the level of 1.2948 (at the time of writing the article). The target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2979 and 1.3017 and strong and positive momentum support this short-term outlook. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.2901.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3187

WR2 - 1.3072

WR1 - 1.2894

Weekly Pivot - 1.2783

WS1 - 1.2601

WS2 - 1.2494

WS3 - 1.2312

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for October 1, 2020

The pair traded downward on Wednesday, into a pullback, but the news did not allow the bottom to be fully worked out. Today, the price may move upward. According to the economic calendar, euro news is expected at 07:55 and 10:00 UTC, and dollar news is at 12:30 and 14:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may move upward from the level of 1.1723 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the target of 1.1766 - a 38.2% pullback level (red dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may continue to move upward with the target at 1.1813 - a 50.0% pullback level (red dotted line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.1723 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the target of 1.1766 - a 38.2% pullback level (red dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may continue to move upward with the target at 1.1813 - a 50.0% pullback level (red dotted line).

Another possible scenario: from the level of 1.1723 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick), the price may continue to move upward with the target of 1.1758 - a 21-day EMA (black thin line). Upon testing this line, the price may decline to at least 1.1690 - a 38.2% pullback level (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on October 1

Trading recommendations for the EUR / USD pair on October 1

Analysis of transactions

Strong US statistics should've brought sharp decline in the EUR / USD pair, however, movement yesterday was a lot smaller than expected, amounting to only 20 pips down from the level of 1.1709.

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Today is the same as the upcoming reports also pose certain risks for the euro, one of which is the data on production activity in the eurozone. If the indicator comes out better than the forecasts, a new wave of growth will appear, but if a slowdown was observed on activity, the euro will depreciate even further in the market.

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  • Buy positions when the quote reaches the level of 1.1751 (green line on the chart), targeting a price of 1.1810. However, growth will only occur on the grounds of good data for the eurozone.
  • Sell positions after the euro reaches a price of 1.1709 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1642.

Trading recommendations for the GBP / USD pair on October 1

Analysis of transactions

The bearish sentiment was not that strong in the pound yesterday, as a result of which the quote moved down by only 20 pips from the level of 1.2833. Then, in the afternoon, a slight bullish momentum went through the GBP / USD pair, bringing the quote a 40-pip rise from the level of 1.2882.

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Today, data for the UK PMI will be published, however, it will not greatly affect the market, as everyone's attention will be focused on Brexit updates and the spread of the coronavirus.

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  • Buy positions when the pound reaches a price of 1.2945 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.2999 (thicker green line on the chart).
  • Sell positions after the quote reaches the level of 1.2909 (red line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.2844.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 10/01/20

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Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair did not manage to stay below the side channel 1.1700 // 1.1810 // 1.1910. As a result, the correction phase from the local low of 1.1612 remains on the market, where the resistance level is 1.1755.

Based on the data obtained on the location of the quote, we can assume that without price consolidation above 1.1775, the quote will continue to fluctuate within the amplitude of 1.1710/1.1755 until the end of the current day.

If the local high is updated and the price consolidates above 1.1775, it may lead to a prolonged corrective movement in the direction of 1.1810.

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On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair resumed to grow along the correction course after a short stagnation in the period of September 29. As a result, the local high was updated, and the quote was consolidated above 1.2940.

The maximum possible deviation from the downward trend is 1.3480 ---> 1.2674. Now, if the price consolidates above the level of 1.3000, it may lead to a change in market interest from downward trend to an upward one.

Based on the data obtained on the quote, we can assume that if the correction phase persists, a movement towards the level of 1.3000 (+/-15 pips) is not excluded, where a slowdown with a following price rebound is possible.

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AUD/USD: Greenback in prostration; The Australian Dollar grows on news from China

The Australian Dollar, against the US Dollar, continues to recover its positions. Last Thursday, the pair reached a local minimum of 0.7007. After, it turned around and headed up, consistently returning the lost points. This behavior was predictable for the par, given the significance of the 0.7000 support level. Traders for many weeks could not break through this level and now the bears of the pair are faced with a mirror problem. As soon as the Australian Dollar approached the base of the 70th figure, sellers began to fix profits, and buyers, on the contrary, showed an active interest in the pair. As a result, the Australian dollar has been growing for a week, approaching the borders of the 72nd price level.

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The US Dollar, in turn, cannot determine the vector of its movement and is in some prostration. Its index showed mixed dynamics during the Asian session on Thursday, reflecting the market's skeptical attitude to the greenback. Dollar bulls ignore many of the fundamental factors that should have pulled the greenback out of the flat. For example, the Consumer Confidence Index (CB Consumer Confidence) came out with positive feedback, updating multi-month highs (101.8 points). The housing market was also good. The volume of pending home sales increased by almost 9% in August-- with a forecast growth of 3.8%. On an annual basis, the indicator jumped by 20% with a forecast of growth of 16.4%. According to experts, against the background of the Coronavirus epidemic in the United States, internal migration of the population has increased – people are trying to move from large cities so the housing market is experiencing a kind of boom. Low interest rates also contribute to this. There was also a report from the ADP Agency, the publication of which is expected on Friday. However, it should be taken into account that recently there has been a de-correlation of these indicators, so it should not be considered as a reliable reference point.

Generally, the dollar ignored all the above fundamental factors. The reaction of traders was reflex and short-term. The latest messages voiced by the US Treasury Secretary indicate that the US Congress is unlikely to be able to agree on a new package of fiscal incentives in the foreseeable future. On Tuesday, Steven Mnuchin said that consultations between the parties are still ongoing and by the end of this week, it will be clear whether the Democrats, Republicans, and Representatives of the White House will be able to work out a compromise solution or not. In my opinion, there is very little chance here as representatives of the Democratic party continue to insist on accepting their proposals, which amount to 2 trillion 200 billion dollars. This initiative, to put it mildly, differs from the proposals of the Republicans, who proposed to allocate only 300 billion. In conditions of such uncertainty and hopelessness, the Dollar is less secure and this uncertainty is observed in almost all Dollar pairs.

The Australian Dollar received support from China this week. Despite the difficult political relations between Canberra and Beijing, China still remains a key trading partner for them. The growth of Chinese indicators has a positive impact on the state of the Australian Dollar. It became known that China's manufacturing PMI in September exceeded experts' expectations, rising to 51.5 points. This is the best result since March since a sharp jump was recorded after the Coronavirus recession in February. The September index of activity in the non-manufacturing sector also turned out to be better than expected, reaching 55.9 points. This indicator is gradually but consistently growing for the third month in a row, reflecting the positive processes in the Chinese economy.

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At the moment, the fundamental picture is in favor of the Australian Dollar. It is noteworthy that the market ignores recent rumors that the Reserve Bank of Australia may soon reduce the interest rate. In my opinion, these rumors are groundless and speculative, given the rhetoric of representatives of the Australian regulator both at the September meeting of the RBA and after it. It seems that most traders are also skeptical about such conversations.

From the technical point of view, the AUD/USD pair on the daily chart is traded in the Kumo Cloud, between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator. Judging by the growth dynamics, buyers of the pair are clearly determined to test the nearest resistance level of 0.7220. At this price point, the upper line of the Bollinger Bands and the upper border of the above Cloud coincide. The next resistance level is much higher at 0.7350. The pair tested this price target for a month and a half (during August and the first half of September), but failed to gain a foothold higher. Therefore, for AUD/USD bulls, this price level is a key resistance. At the moment, we can consider purchases with the first goal of 0.7220.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for October 1, 2020

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GBP/JPY dipped to a low of 135.16 (we where looking for a final dip to 135.25). From the 135.16 low GBP/JPY accelerated higher thorugh resistance at 136.05 confirming more upside pressure towards the next more solid resistance at 138.29.

Support is now seen at 136.05, which we expect will be able to protect the downside for the next push higher to 138.29.

R3: 137.72

R2: 137.10

R1: 136.60

Pivot: 136.32

S1: 136.05

S2: 135.65

S3: 135.16

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 133.51 and we will move our stop higher to 135.05.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 1, 2020

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EUR/JPY hit the bottom at 123.50 for one more rally to just above 124.25 to complete wave i of 3/. Once wave i is complete, we should see a correction in wave ii towards solid support near 123.30 before the next impulsive rally in wave iii of 3/. Wave iii of 3/ should be the strongest of the waves and push EUR/JPY a lot higher and ultimately through the former peak at 127.02.

Support is now seen at 123.62 and then at 123.50.

R3: 124.58

R2: 124.25

R1: 123.94

Pivot: 123.75

S1: 123.62

S2: 123.50

S3: 123.30

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 122.95 and we will move our stop higher to 123.45 and take 50% profit at 124.25.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 1, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday's debate between presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump turned out to be a bad show, investors regretted spending time waiting for them since the beginning of the week and continued to buy dollars and shares, albeit with some caution, primarily associated with fears of a "peaceful" transfer of power by Trump.

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The euro did not try to go beyond the signal level of 1.1754 on the daily chart, these are the lows of August 21 and September 9. The euro is more likely to break through the area above the 1.1650 support and continues to fall towards 1.1550 (low on Nov 5, 2017).

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The Marlin oscillator continues to decline on the four-hour chart, but it still remains in the zone of positive values and the price is above the balance (red) and MACD (blue) indicator lines. Setting the price below the MACD line (1.1694) will be a signal for its attack on 1.1650.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on October 1, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose 32 points on Wednesday, close to the strong resistance of 0.7190, formed by the extremes on July 22, August 13, September 9. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator reached the upper border of its own descending channel, it is possible that a signal line would reverse, and the price will not reach the 0.7190 level. If the price settles above the resistance, the price may continue to grow to the target level of 0.7270. The probability of such a development of events is 30-35%.

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A stable upward trend in the short-term remains on the four-hour chart. Here, the price intends to fight the resistance at 0.7190 and it is more clearly visible. In case the price rapidly pulls back from this level, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator could stay within the current channel during the daytime. We are waiting for the development of events.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on October 1, 2020

USD/JPY

USD/JPY fell by 18 points while investors were temporarily confused on Wednesday, stopping at the 110.0% Fibonacci level on the daily chart. The pair is planning to go up from this level during the Asian session. The Marlin oscillator is staying in the growth zone. We are waiting for the next branch of growth at the target of 106.00 - at the Fibonacci level of 100.0% and the MACD line coinciding with it.

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The price is held by the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, the general trend is growing. The Marlin oscillator has been declining for a long time while the price increases, you can look at this as the indicator easing from the overbought zone before it grows further. We are waiting for the price to reach the designated target.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on October 1. COT report. Traders are confused, waiting for new information

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair continued to trade in a narrow price range between the Kijun-sen line and the resistance level of 1.2915 on September 30. Therefore, the technical picture has not changed compared to the previous day. Sellers made an attempt to resume the downward movement, crossed the Senkou Span B line, but could not go below the Kijun-sen. Buyers remain in a more advantageous position, but now they need to overcome the 1.2915 level in order to count on maintaining growth. Bears still need to pull the pair back below the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines in order to expect the downward trend to resume. The general trend remains uncertain, as there is no clear upward trend now.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe, but only formally. In fact, they are directed more sideways than down. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report for the British pound showed that non-commercial traders got rid of buying the pound and opened Sell-contracts (shorts). A group of commercial traders got rid of huge amounts of both longs and shorts of the pound. We then concluded that the pound sterling is now, in principle, not the most attractive currency for large traders. The new COT report showed absolutely minor changes for the "non-commercial" group. Buy-contracts (longs) fell by 2,000 while Sell-contracts decreased by 1,500. Thus, the net position for non-commercial traders remained practically unchanged for the reporting week (September 16-22). The British pound continued to fall, which can be considered a consequence of the previous reporting week, when the net position of non-commercial traders greatly decreased, by 11,500 contracts. No changes in the rate of the pound/dollar pair on the 23rd, 24th, 25th, which will be included in the next report. Thus, a long term decline in the pound's quotes is quite questionable, although the pound is still the most unattractive currency in the foreign exchange market.

The UK GDP for the second quarter in the third estimate was released on Wednesday, September 30. The report showed that GDP contracted by 19.8%, which is slightly less than what previous estimates showed. However, this improvement did not particularly support the British pound, which continued to trade in a very narrow range yesterday. A report on business activity in the manufacturing sector is scheduled for Thursday in the UK, the significance of which is not yet alarming. However, given the beginning of the second waves of the epidemic in both the European Union and Britain, we can expect that business and economic activity will begin to decline again. The manufacturing PMIs Ism and Markit will also be published in America, which do not cause any concerns yet. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits and the total number of secondary applications will also be released today, which many consider as the absolute value of unemployment. These are the most important reports of the day, but even they may not generate any reaction from market participants. The overall fundamental background remains more important. And any news regarding Brexit and negotiations between Brussels and London is especially important for the British pound.

We have two trading ideas for October 1:

1) Buyers continue to push the pair upward and have broken through the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines, and have also reached the first resistance level of 1.2915 twice. Thus, you are recommended to stay in long positions while aiming for the resistance area of 1.3004-1.3024 and the 1.3086 level, as long as the pair remains above the Senkou Span B line. Take Profit in this case will be from 70 to 150 points. The current fundamental background is simultaneously bad for both the pound and the dollar.

2) Sellers failed to keep the pair below the critical line, and then failed to return below this line. Thus, now they need to wait for a new price consolidation below the Kijun-sen line (1.2814), and only after that it is recommended to resume trading downward with the target of the support area of 1.2636-1.2660. Take Profit in this case can be up to 110 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on October 1. COT report. Traders remain calm, ready to resume selling the pair

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair perfectly reached the upper line of the descending channel, despite failing to overcome it the first time on the hourly timeframe on September 30. Therefore, it is likely that the pair might fall. Of course, buyers can make another attempt to overcome it. However, the downward trend remains as long as the price remains within the descending channel. Moreover, the bulls still need to overcome the equally strong Senkou Span B line in order to expect the upward movement to continue. If the pair settles below the critical line, then it may go back to moving downwards.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels began to reverse to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe, as the price failed to overcome the descending channel on the hourly chart. The euro/dollar fell by about one and a half cents last reporting week (September 16-22). Recall that the previous Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that the "non-commercial" group of traders, which we have repeatedly called the most important, sharply reduced their net positions. Thus, in general, the downward movement that began later on was sufficiently substantiated. The only problem is that it started late. The new COT report, which only covers the dates when the euro began its long-awaited fall, showed completely opposite data. Non-commercial traders opened 15,500 new Buy-contracts (longs) and almost 6,000 Sell-contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position for this group of traders has increased by around 9,000, which shows that traders are becoming bullish. Accordingly, the behavior of the EUR/USD pair and the COT report data simply do not match. For the second week in a row. However, if you try to look at the overall picture, you can still take note of a very weak strengthening of the bearish sentiment, so the COT report allows a slight fall in the euro. The question is, will it continue to decline or is it already over? The pair even managed to rise by 40 points from September 23-29. Therefore, there are no such changes again.

Germany published the unemployment rate on Wednesday, which is only interesting because it helps to predict the pan-European unemployment rate. It turns out that unemployment actually decreased by the end of September, amounting to only 6.3%. This is not much for the crisis. Retail sales in Germany rose 3.1% month-on-month. Thus, the statistics for Europe were quite encouraging. The US data also turned out to be stronger than what market participants expected. The ADP's Private Sector Employment Change report showed more gains than traders had expected, and the third quarter GDP estimate showed an improvement to -31.4%. However, neither the one nor the other news caused a strong reaction from market participants. The European Union will publish the PMI for the manufacturing sector on Thursday, October 1. Similar figures will be released in Germany and the United States

We have two trading ideas for October 1:

1) Buyers continue to put pressure on the pair, but it is still not enough to break the current trend and for us to go beyond the descending channel. Therefore, we recommend opening long positions if the pair settles above the descending channel and the Senkou Span B line (1.1763) with targets at 1.1798 and the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1910, not earlier. Take Profit in this case will be from 20 to 110 points.

2) Bears keep it under control despite the fact that the euro has been growing for several days. As long as the price is within the channel, there are chances for the downward movement to resume. Below the Kijun-sen line, you are advised to resume trading bearish while aiming for the support level of 1.1538. In this case, the potential Take Profit is up to 110 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. October 1. London and Brussels simultaneously declared that they would not concede and started

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 119.7727

On Wednesday, September 30, the British pound paired with the US dollar also traded absolutely calmly. Throughout the trading day, there was also plenty of interesting information for the GBP/USD pair, starting from the same Trump-Biden debate, ending with the publication of GDP in the UK and the US for the second quarter of 2020. However, traders did not consider all the information at their disposal important. As a result, the quotes first corrected to the moving average line, after which they attempted to resume the upward movement they had started. The pound is now in an even more difficult fundamental situation than the euro. The growth of the European currency is stopped by the fears of traders associated with purchases of this currency near two-year highs. In addition, the ECB optically hinted that it considers the current euro exchange rate to be too high, so further appreciation may lead to currency interventions, which is also feared by traders. With the GBP/USD pair, the situation remains such that there is no reason to buy either the dollar or the pound itself. The fundamental background in the US and the UK is equally bad and weak.

What important news came from Albion yesterday? First, the British Parliament passed the "Johnson bill" in the second reading. Now it will be sent to the House of Lords for revision and amendment, after which the final vote will take place. Most experts still believe that this bill is nothing more than a way to put pressure on the European Union and force it to make concessions. After all, the final round of negotiations between Brussels and London on an agreement on future relations also began on Tuesday. However, Vice-President of the European Commission Maros Sefcovic said that the European Union is not going to make concessions to the UK, which is going to adopt the controversial bill "on the internal market" and thus violate the agreement on the Northern Irish border with the EU. A little later, a similar statement was made by the chief negotiator from Britain, David Frost, who said that London wants to get full independence from the European Union, and not remain tied to it in many areas. Thus, it is not clear why this final stage of negotiations is needed at all. The parties can basically just have tea and talk about football. No one believes in the conclusion of an agreement anyway. Meanwhile, a member of the British government, Michael Gove, repeated the words of British Prime Minister Johnson that the approved law is insurance in case there is no deal with the European Union. Gove did not comment on the fact that the adoption and implementation of this law would lead to a gross violation of international law.

Thus, it is difficult for the pound to count on a "bright future" with Boris Johnson. And the US dollar – with Donald Trump. If the situation for the US currency can be resolved in a little over a month, then the British Prime Minister can still lead the Kingdom for a very long time.

Meanwhile, the situation with the "coronavirus" around the world continues to worsen. In the States, approximately 40,000 new diseases are still recorded every day. In Britain, the anti-record of three days ago was updated yesterday – plus 7,156 cases of COVID-2019. Thus, in both countries that are interesting in the GBP/USD pair, there is no improvement in the epidemiological situation. Britain, in addition to all the problems that it has already faced, may run into new, unscheduled, and unaccounted for economic problems. The fact is that if the second "wave" of the pandemic is stronger than the first (and the number of daily recorded cases of infection is already higher than in the spring), this will potentially be another strong blow to the economy. In addition to the first wave of the pandemic and the crisis, in addition to Brexit, in addition to the lack of trade deals with the US and the European Union. But London signed a $ 15 billion agreement with Japan. Naturally, this is sarcasm.

As for macroeconomic statistics, the British Gross Domestic Product, although revised upwards, still amounted to a record minus 19.8% in quarterly terms, and minus 21.5% in annual terms. Thus, it was extremely difficult for the British currency to count on support with such figures. In the States, however, the numbers were not much better. GDP for the second quarter in America was -31.4% q/q. Only the ADP report on changes in the number of employees in the private sector showed a larger increase than market participants expected (749 thousand against 650 thousand). However, the US dollar did not gain 10 points on this report, once again proving that macroeconomic statistics now have almost no meaning for traders. What can we say about the index of personal consumption expenditures for the second quarter and the price index of personal consumption expenditures? They didn't matter at all.

From a technical point of view, the pair has bounced off from the moving average line, so the upward movement may resume. At the same time, as long as the price does not overcome the previous local maximum (1.3000), it is pointless to think about the high prospects of the pound. Buyers need to prove their strength and desire to push the pound up again. And, as we have already said, there are very few fundamental reasons for this. And below the moving average line, bears will return to the market.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 121 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Thursday, October 1, therefore, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2783 and 1.3025. A new reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down may signal about a possible resumption of the downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2878

S2 – 1.2817

S3 – 1.2756

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2939

R2 – 1.3000

R3 – 1.3062

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair resumed its upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe, rebounding from the moving average line. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in the longs with the goals of 1.2939 and 1.3000 as long as the Heiken Ashi indicator is directed upwards. It is recommended to trade the pair down with targets of 1.2783 and 1.2695 if the price returns to the area below the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. October 1. The most pointless, angry, and chaotic debate in US history.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 102.8927

The US currency paired with the euro traded very calmly on the third trading day of the week, although a huge number of potentially important events were planned for this day. However, market participants reacted to them rather sluggishly, thus, there is no need to talk about serious exchange rate changes. We have repeatedly stated that the long-term fundamental background plays an important role for the pair now, not macroeconomic statistics or "one-time" news. By and large, traders continue to ignore most of the economic data, because they are now completely predictable. First, there was a collapse in macroeconomic indicators, which did not cause anyone any surprise, since the epidemic and crisis covered the whole world. Now, after the removal of "lockdowns", the recovery of all countries' economies has begun, which is also absolutely logical.

Important and interesting news began to arrive on Wednesday night. It was on this day in the American city of Cleveland that the first debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden took place. The debate was set aside for 1.5 hours, divided into 15-minute segments devoted to each of the six topics (the political "background"; the situation in the Supreme Court due to the death of Ruth Ginsburg; the COVID-2019 epidemic; the economy and its recovery from the pandemic; racial conflicts and problems; protection of electoral processes). According to media reports, about 100 million Americans watched the live broadcast. Naturally, most of them wanted specific answers to specific questions. According to statistics, one in ten Americans has not yet decided who they will vote for in the election. The debate could also change (at least slightly) the balance of power between Biden and Trump. In recent weeks, data on political ratings have varied. Some opinion polls show that the gap of 8-10% has not decreased, some indicate that Trump has managed to reduce the gap to 2-3%. We are inclined to believe that the gap has remained the same. All in all, the debate was potentially a very interesting event that disappointed everyone.

Almost all American media called the event the worst in the history of the United States. Both candidates spent most of the allotted hour and a half insulting and accusing each other of all mortal sins. Bickering, interrupting, inciting, provoking – these are the terms that best reflect what happened last night in America. Most Americans wanted to get a clear answer to the question: what will a candidate do if he gets the post of President of the United States? Instead, they received an online showdown between Trump and Biden, which had previously only taken place in absentia. It should be noted at once that most media outlets still record the results of the debate as Biden's asset. Six out of ten observers believe Biden performed better than Trump. Both presidential candidates, however, used their own tools, to which everyone has long been accustomed. Trump – rude, accused, interrupted, did not allow to speak, put pressure on Biden and host Chris Wallace. Biden also "rode" all of Trump's "achievements" as President in his first term, from the "coronavirus" to racial scandals. In general, it seemed that Trump continues to post messages on the social network Twitter. Many experts noted that the US President constantly made ridiculous statements that were not relevant, told gossip, and shared absolutely unsubstantiated information about Biden. The results of this "boorish domination" of Trump were as follows: only 29% of respondents believe that Trump was truthful and sincere in his statements, and only 28% believe that the current President performed better than his opponent. Biden was supported by 69% of respondents, and another 65% said that the attacks on Trump were fair. Thus, the winner of the first round of the confrontation can be considered a Democrat. However, you should not make an "innocent lamb" out of it. Biden used "sharp words" as well as Trump, openly called on Trump to "shut up" and called him a "clown."

Thus, according to the common opinion of Western media and experts, yesterday's elections will have almost no effect on the balance of power before the elections, which are only 34 days away. At the end of the debate, Donald Trump could only strengthen the faith of his supporters in himself, and Joe Biden – to show that his solid age is not a hindrance and he quite cheerfully opposed his opponent.

Fast forward from America to the European Union. Christine Lagarde gave another speech earlier this week. During it, the head of the ECB said that the regulator will do everything necessary to stimulate the economy in the future and help it recover from the coronavirus pandemic. She said the current level of economic recovery is "incomplete" and the prospects for further recovery are "uncertain." According to Lagarde, consumers are very cautious about spending money, and companies are very reluctant to invest. In principle, this is not surprising, given the scale of the crisis and the beginning of the second "wave" of the epidemic in Europe. "The health crisis will continue to put pressure on economic activity and pose downside risks to the economic outlook," said Christine Lagarde. She also noted negative inflation and said that the CPI will remain negative for some time due to high pressure on it due to the growth of the European currency. In general, a neutral performance.

As for the euro/dollar pair and the impact of all events on it, it was quietly trading for most of the day near the moving average line. It is clear that traders are again confused. On the one hand, it seems that buying the euro currency looks more attractive due to the complete uncertainty in the future of the United States. On the other hand, the European currency has already risen quite seriously in the last few months. Thus, we can only wait and analyze the technical picture. We are still inclined to the option that the euro currency will continue to grow. It may not be strong, however, it will continue. To be honest, it is absolutely normal practice when the national currency becomes cheaper before the elections. Something similar may happen to the dollar in the next six weeks.

The last thing I would like to note is that in the coming weeks, there will be two more rounds of debates between the current President and the former Vice President of the United States. Despite the fact that there was almost no reaction to the first round, this does not mean that it will be the same for the next two rounds.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of October 1 is 71 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1646 and 1.1788. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back down may signal the end of an upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1658

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1780

R2 – 1.1841

R3 – 1.1902

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is fixed above the moving average line. Thus, it is now recommended to consider long positions with targets of 1.1780 and 1.1808 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down or the price fixes below the moving average. It is recommended to consider sell orders again if the pair is fixed back below the moving average with the first targets of 1.1658 and 1.1597.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com