Hot forecast and trading recommendations for GBP/USD on 09/24/2020

The pound froze in place in the absence of any news regarding the coronavirus epidemic. Which once again proves that the reason it fell is because of the pandemic and the introduction of new restrictions. There have been no changes in this matter since Tuesday evening, and investors do not yet know what to focus on. At the same time, the panic due to the epidemic is so great that the market is ignoring any data for now. But yesterday the preliminary data on business activity indices were published. Despite fears, they turned out to be slightly better than forecasts. Thus, the index of business activity in the service sector, as expected, fell from 58.8 to 55.1. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, which was supposed to decline from 55.2 to 53.8, decreased to 54.3. As a result, the composite PMI fell from 59.1 to 55.7, although it was expected to decline to 54.9. Although we are still talking about a decline in business activity indices, which can hardly be called a positive factor. But in the light of recent events, there were indeed strong fears that the decline in the indices would be on a much larger scale.

Composite PMI (UK):

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Take note that in the United States, the preliminary data on business activity indices were significantly better than forecasted. Instead of declining from 53.1 to 53.0, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector rose to 53.5. The index of business activity in the service sector should have decreased from 55.0 to 54.1, but it only fell to 54.6. The composite PMI, instead of declining from 54.6 to 53.0, only decreased to 54.4. And given the fact that data turned out to be better than forecasts in both the UK and the United States, despite showing a decline, all other things being equal, then, we should still have observed stagnation.

Composite PMI (United States):

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If there is no news on the coronavirus today, investors will have to pay closer attention to macroeconomic data. And oddly enough, this will also help strengthen the dollar. After all, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits should decrease from 860,000 to 840,000. The number of repeated applications may even decrease from 12,628,000 to 12,100,000. So the data will once again indicate a gradual recovery of the labor market, which is the main guarantee of economic growth.

Repetitive Unemployment Insurance Claims (United States):

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The GBPUSD pair continues to focus below the 1.2770 price level, which signals the prevailing downward interest in the market. The consistent decline in the value of the British pound since the beginning of September signals a possible change in the market sentiment, which may well lead to a change in the medium-term trend.

Based on the quote's current location, you can see a variable fluctuation within 100 points below the 1.2770 benchmark, which probably reflects the stage of price taking.

In terms of volatility, there is a high dynamic that has been following the British currency for a long time.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, we can see that the current downward movement is the largest for the last six months.

We can assume that the price fluctuation in the 1.2670/1.2770 range will not last long and as soon as market participants overcome the value of 1.2670 we will see the resumption of the downward movement in the direction of 1.2600.

From the point of view of a complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the hourly and daily keep the sell signal by focusing the price below the reference level of 1.2770.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for September 24, 2020

The pair traded downward on Wednesday and tested 1.2721 - a 61.8% pullback level (red dotted line). Today, the price may continue to move down. As per the economic calendar, pound news is expected at 14:00 UTC, and dollar news is expected at 12:30 and 14:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may move downward from the level of 1.2725 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the target at the historical support level 1.2646 (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the downward trend may continue with the next target of 1.2542 - a 76.4% pullback level (red dotted line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price maymove down with the target at the historical support level 1.2646 (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this level, the downward trend may continue with the next target of 1.2542 - a 76.4% pullback level (red dotted line).

Another possible scenario: from the level of 1.2725 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick), the price may move down with the target at the historical support level 1.2646 (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the price may begin to move upward with the target at the historical resistance level 1.2769 (white dashed line).

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Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 09/24/20

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The EUR/USD pair keeps the quote below the side channel 1.1700 // 1.1810 // 1.1910, which is considered a good signal for a downward development. Yesterday, the quote approached the coordinates of 1.1650, which made it possible to further strengthen the sellers' position in the market. The fact of changing the structure of the side channel is already unquestionable, thus working for sale will be considered the most attractive trading tactic. It is also worth noting that there are pullbacks and local corrections even with the most stable course, so take this point into account when setting restrictive Stop Loss orders.

Based on the obtained data on the location of the quote, we can assume that a downward development is possible in the market, but if you have not yet opened positions in the level of 1.1690, it is now most ideal to enter the market after holding the price below the variable level of 1.1650. The late entry is due to the fact that the quote may temporarily fluctuate between the values of 1.1650 and 1.1700.

If the forecast for the development of a downward movement is fulfilled, it may have a long-term character, where the first coordinates for fixing profit are in the range of 1.1550-1.1500.

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On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair, following a downward course, managed to firmly consolidate below the price level of 1.2770, which can cause the price trend to change from an upward to a downward one in the future. The process of consolidating prices at new levels is considered a difficult task. The quote slowed down for a while, having a variable amplitude of 1.2674/1.2770. To resume the quote's decline, it is necessary to complete the consolidation stage, where a possible signal to sellers will be the price passing through the level of 1.2670.

The prospect of developing a downward course has long distances, but we should move in the form of steps, consistently fixing profits. Thus, the first stage will be considered the level of 1.2620, where the transaction volume is fixed by 50-100%, while the second step is the level of 1.2500.

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Euro aims to bypass the US dollar

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Another rally of the EUR/USD pair is being experienced in the market, triggered by the inspiring rise of the Euro. Against the background of the falling USD, the euro is trying to take the lead in the pair. However, the dollar does not yield, as it breaks through to the top from time to time.

By the end of this week, experts recorded an increase in the rally of the US currency. Analysts believe that one of the main reasons for the dollar's strengthening is the unclear prospects of a new medium inflation targeting regime in the United States. The Fed notes that this uncertainty is due to the lack of suitable instruments that can raise inflation and analyze the consequences of its rise. At the moment, only fiscal measures are helping to raise inflation. In this regard, J. Powell, supports the strengthening of such measures. However, Fed's officials believe that the US economy will plunge into recession without significant fiscal support.

Technically, the US currency remains vulnerable in view of the regulator's aggressive stimulating monetary policy and uncertainty ahead of the US presidential election.

The failures of the US dollar gave a chance to the European one. Taking advantage of the weakening USD, the euro decided to move to the next highs. Its attempts were successful, which led to a temporary leadership against its rival. As this week began, the EUR/USD pair entered a downturn, breaking the key support level of 1.1720. At the same time, experts did not record a deeper decline in the pair. On the contrary, during yesterday's start of the trading session, the indicated pair resumed its growth and tried to break through the level of 1.1720. But today, it is trading near the extreme lows of 1.1655-1.1656 and so experts admitted that the pair will further collapse.

It is difficult for many analysts to know how the rally between the EUR/USD pair will end, but they do not exclude its correction in the near future. Currency strategists at TD Bank recommend using pair recovery attempts to open short positions. Its analysts also expect a correction of the EUR/USD pair and its departure to the extremely low level of 1.1550.

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Among the reasons for the confusing rally in the EUR/USD pair, the bank's strategists note a decline in investor optimism about a possible tightening in quarantine measures related to the COVID-19, as well as doubts about an early recovery of the global economy. What's worsened the situation is the negative data on business activity indices in the euro area services. Despite the disappointing statistics, the Euro is not going to give up. However, the current deterioration of the situation may disappoint the "bulls", who have significant investments in the European currency and are in long positions. In this regard, TD Bank experts prefer short positions for this pair.

According to experts, the further dynamics of the classic pair will depend on a number of factors, including the fight against COVID-19 and the possible adoption of additional measures to stimulate the US economy. Many market participants are confident that if new fiscal incentives are introduced, the dollar will be under pressure. In a similar situation, the euro will win, which will try to overtake its opponent once again.

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Another pandemic wave will raise the price of gold

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Economists, especially those in Europe, believe that another pandemic wave is coming, and that it will positively affect gold in the markets. Re-imposing quarantine will lead in a strong gold rally, however, for that, the measures should also extend in the United States, as a restriction only from Europe could strengthen the dollar against the euro and gold, which will neutralize the increased demand for the yellow metal as a safe haven.

Suffice to say, gold will rise amid a second wave not only because of the associated economic slowdown and increased uncertainty, but also because of new stimulus programs that are likely to be announced by both central banks and governments.

At the moment though, both stocks and gold are trading at low prices because of the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve with regards to economic policy. However, there are speculations that a new stimulus may emerge in the near future, and it will greatly benefit the gold markets.

Anyhow, the plunge in gold prices this week left investors wondering if the safe-haven asset is experiencing a respite or a very sharp fall.

The key driving force of the drop is the dollar, which strengthened this week due to dying hopes for additional stimulus in the United States.

Now, because of the upcoming US presidential election, gold may rally again, since over the past 20 years, the yellow metal always moved before and after the event. This is because investors tend to weigh the potential impact of the election results to the dollar, Treasury yields and global political risks.

In addition, gold increased last summer because of negative Treasury rates, which, since the beginning of August, have remained unchanged. A significant increase in inflation expectations is needed to to reduce them.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on September 24

Trading recommendations for the EUR / USD pair on September 24

Analysis of transactions

The weaker-than-expected data on the euro area's PMI halted the growth of the European currency in the market, so as a result, long positions from 1.1703 only made about 15 pips of profit in the EUR / USD pair. Then, afterwards, the quote turned in the other direction, but the movement was not as large as anticipated.

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A number of important reports for Germany are scheduled to be published today, one of which is the data on business activity and confidence. Since these are leading indicators for the EU economy, good performance could lead to a new wave of growth in the EUR / USD pair.

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  • Buy positions when the quote reaches a price level of 1.1685 (green line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.1758. However, a huge price increase is not really expected, especially if data for Germany comes out weaker than the forecasts.
  • Sell positions when the quote reaches the level of 1.1647 (red line on the chart) A breakout from which will lead to a huge price drop in the euro, especially if confidence in German businesses decreases. Take profit at the level of 1.1586.

Trading recommendations for the GBP / USD pair on September 24

Analysis of transactions

Large movements were not seen on the GBP / USD pair, mainly because major players were absent in the forex market yesterday. As a result, short positions from the level of 1.2714 got profit of only 20 points, while long positions from the level of 1.2755 got about 15 points.

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No important statistics are scheduled to be published today, so all attention will be on the indicators for the US economy. The upcoming speech of Bank of England president Andrew Bailey may put pressure on the British pound, so it is best to stick with trading along the trend.

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  • Set long positions from 1.2740 (green line on the chart), and take profit around the level of 1.2810 (thicker green line on the chart).
  • Sell positions when the quote reaches 1.2704 (red line on the chart), and take profit at the level of 1.2655. Statements regarding negative interest rates will cause the pound to fall.
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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for September 24, 2020

The pair traded downward on Wednesday and broke through the support level 1.1674 (black bold line). Today, the downward trend is likely to continue. As per the economic calendar, euro news is expected at 08:00 UTC, and dollar news is expected at 12:30 and 14:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may move downward from the level of 1.1662 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the target at 1.1590 - a 50% pullback level (red dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may begin to move upward with the target at the resistance level 1.1673 (black thick line). If this level is reached, the upward trend may continue with the next target at 1.1823 - a 61.8% pullback level (blue dashed line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:

The market may move downward from the level of 1.1662 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the target at 1.1590 - a 50% pullback level (red dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may begin to move upward with the target at the resistance level 1.1673 (black thick line). If this level is reached, the upward trend may continue with the next target at 1.1823 - a 61.8% pullback level (blue dashed line).

Another possible scenario: from the level of 1.1662 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick), the price may continue to move downward with the target of 1.1590 - a 50% pullback level (red dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may continue to move down, with the target at the historical support level 1.1544 (blue dashed line).

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 24, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Catherine Coley, CEO of the US cryptocurrency exchange Binance, says the adoption of cryptocurrencies may be one of the only ways for companies to be "pandemic-proof" in the future.

In an online interview, Coley said cryptocurrencies may offer "uses beyond speculation" where investors can engage in e-commerce transactions, run new businesses, and other real-world uses such as mortgages:

"If you build a business in the next five years and don't treat digital assets as an ingredient, you are unconsciously stepping in. It's a pandemic-proof case."

The president continued that in the future, companies should draw inspiration from cryptocurrencies, which made talking about money more accessible to the average person, but also more accessible to professionals dealing with traditional finance.

"It's an industry that reaches a much different audience than finance. (...) there are so many benefits to it that people don't appreciate."

Coley has been CEO of Binance.US since 2019. Last month, the stock market announced that it had overcome regulatory hurdles to expand into Florida, Alabama and Georgia.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has broken out from a Triangle pattern as anticipated and hit the technical support located at the level of $321.95. The zone located between the levels of $321.95 - $305.20 is the key mid-term demand zone, so traders should expect some price reaction from this area. The key short-term technical resistance is seen at the level of $332.38 and $355.24.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $426.36

WR2 - $409.08

WR1 - $387.32

Weekly Pivot - $370.45

WS1 - $348.67

WS2 - $331.18

WS3 - $309.49

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support, seen at the level of $364.95 had been violated, but all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 24. COT reports. Pound continues to produce excellent market entry points.

To open long positions in GBP/USD, you need:

In yesterday's review, I drew attention to placing buy positions on the pound above 1.2714, returning to which occurred in the middle of the European session. I also said that you can take your time, but wait until support at 1.2714 has been tested from the reverse side, those from top to bottom. Let's take a look at a 5-minute chart. We see how the bulls quickly returned to the market when the 1.2714 level was reached, which resulted in a powerful upward momentum for the pound, thereby rising to the resistance area of 1.2782, to which we literally fell short of almost seven points. In total, the upward movement was about 60 points, which is pretty good.

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Bulls currently need to defend the 1.2709 area, because a lot depends on it. Forming a false breakout at the 1.2709 level will be a signal to open long positions while expecting an upward correction to the resistance area of 1.2772. However, you can only count on succeeding growth if we receive positive news on Brexit, since it is unlikely that today's speech from the governor of the Bank of England will be able to support the pound, and we also do not have other UK fundamental data for the day. Settling above 1.2772 will be the entry point into long positions on GBP/USD with the main goal of moving towards the high of 1.2816. A large resistance at 1.2863 will be a distant goal, which is where I recommend taking profits. In case the pair falls below the 1.2709 level, and this is more likely, it is best not to rush to buy the pound, but wait until the next low of 1.2645 has been updated, or buy GBP/USD even lower, immediately on a rebound from support 1.2585, counting on a correction of 30- 40 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 15 showed a reduction in long positions and a large increase in short positions, which indicates market expectations and a high possibility that the pound will fall in the long term, which is probably due to uncertainty regarding the conclusion of the Brexit trade deal. And if last week, it was possible to say that the downward momentum may start to gradually slow down, which the market showed us, now the situation is on the side of the pound sellers once again and the pair may succeedingly fall. Short non-commercial positions increased from 33,860 to 41,508 during the reporting week. Long non-commercial positions decreased from 46,590 to 43,801. As a result, the non-commercial net position sharply fell to 2,293, against 12,730, a week earlier.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is set to deliver a speech again today. We all remember his recent statements about the high likelihood of negative interest rates, which put sharp pressure on the pound. The GBP/USD pair may continue to fall today if Bailey mentions this problem again. There is also Brexit and the growth of coronavirus infection. In general, everything plays on the side of the pound sellers. Bears need a breakout of support at 1.2709 in the first half of the day, consolidation below which will open a direct way for the pound to a low of 1.2645, and the 1.2585 area will be a distant goal, which is where I recommend taking profit. In the event of an upward correction in GBP/USD, I recommend not to rush in selling, but wait for a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2772, just below which the moving averages pass. It is possible to open short positions immediately on a rebound from a larger resistance in the 1.2816 area, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a continuation of the bearish trend.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower boundary of the indicator in the 1.2695 area will lead to a new wave of decline for the pound. A breakout of the upper border in the 1.2765 area will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 24. COT reports. Euro under pressure. Bears moving towards weekly target

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

After disappointing data on activity in the eurozone services sector, the European currency continued to fall against the US dollar, returning to the area below 1.1695. There was also an excellent entry point, which I mentioned in yesterday's afternoon review. Let's figure it out. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bears quickly regained the 1.1695 level and settled below it, after several unsuccessful attempts by the bulls to climb this range, they continued to pull down the euro into the area of the next target at 1.1648, which was reached at end of the day. The movement was about 50 points.

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Bulls currently need to protect resistance at 1.1648, because a lot depends on it. So far, the only hope we have is for good data on the indicator of conditions, expectations and the current assessment of the business environment in Germany. If the indicator turns out to be better than economists forecasts in September, which is quite possible, then forming a false breakout at the 1.1648 level will be a good entry point for long positions in the euro, counting on an upward correction to the high of 1.1695. However, we can talk about continuing EUR/USD growth only after we have confidently settled above this range, which will open a direct road to the highs of 1.1737 and 1.1779, where I recommend taking profits. In case the euro falls further, and this is more likely, it is best not to rush to buy, but wait until the bears' weekly target has been updated - the 1.1585 level and then you can buy from there immediately on a rebound, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 15 continued to record a reduction in long non-commercial positions and an increase in short ones, which confirms the downward correction in EUR/USD that we recently observed. Long non-commercial positions fell from 248,683 to 230,695, while short non-commercial positions rose from 51,869 to 52,199. The decisions that the Federal Reserve made last week supported the US dollar. and new problems with the spread of coronavirus infection in the EU do not make it possible for euro buyers to seriously expect large players to return to the market. But do not forget that even though the euro has fallen, the total non-commercial net position, which slightly decreased over the reporting week, still remained at a positive level. As a result, the non-commercial net position fell to 178,576 against 196,814 a week earlier.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers keep the market under their control, and all they need in the morning is to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1695, which will increase pressure on the euro and lead to a new wave of decline for the pair, falling to a low of 1.1648. Testing this area for the second time will certainly come with a breakout, therefore, focus on Germany's fundamental data in the morning, since only this can hold back the influx of euro sellers for a while. Settling below 1.1648 forms a new entry point for short positions on EUR/USD which aims to test the low of 1.1585, where I recommend taking profits. In case the euro grows in the first half of the day after the data has been released and there also isn't much activity in the resistance area of 1.1695, which is where the moving averages also play on the bears' side, then it would be best to postpone shorts until the larger resistance of 1.1737 has been updated and afterwards open sell positions from there immediately on a rebound, counting on a downward correction of 20-30 points by the end of the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a continuation of the bearish market in euros.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.1640 area will lead to a new wave of decline for the euro. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the 1.1715 area.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 24, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Speaking at an online meeting of the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly, Lagarde said the bank was analyzing the "benefits, risks and operational challenges" of the European Central Bank's Digital Currency (CBDC), but that fiat currency is likely to continue to play a role in this digital future:

"The digital euro could be a complement to, not a substitute for cash. This could be an alternative to private digital currencies and ensure that sovereign money remains at the center of European payment systems."

On September 10, the ECB president said the Eurosystem had yet to decide whether to introduce the digital euro, but said a task force set up to investigate the potential impact of CBDC on Europe would be announced "in the coming weeks".

Lagarde has long supported the central bank in developing the digital euro to meet the steps towards digitization. In September last year, when she was the head of the International Monetary Fund, the ECB president announced that she would focus on ensuring that the EU institutions adapt to the changing financial environment through openness to cryptocurrencies.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made another lower low at the level of $10,092 and the bounce was very short-lived. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $10,343. The upside momentum had clearly decreased and if the bearish pressure intensify, the market might extend a correction towards the level of $10,000 (intraday support, psychological level) or $9,863 (lower technical support). The weekly trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $12,186

WR2 - $11,616

WR1 - $11,271

Weekly Pivot - $10,739

WS1 - $10,293

WS2 - $9,807

WS3 - $9,393

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis for major currency pairs on September 24

Outlook on September 24:

Analytical overview of major pairs on the H1 scale:

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The key levels for the euro/dollar pair on the H1 chart are 1.1786, 1.1744, 1.1710, 1.1684, 1.1624, 1.1593, 1.1541 and 1.1509. We are following the descending structure from September 21 here. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1624 - 1.1593. Now, if the last level breaks down, it will lead to a strong decline. The next target will be 1.1541. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level 1.1509. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation and upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.1710 - 1.1684. In case of breakdown of the last value, it will lead to a deep correction. The target here is 1.1744, which is the key support level for a downward structure and its breakdown will be conducive to the formation of initial conditions for an upward cycle. In this case, the potential target is 1.1786.

The main trend is the descending structure from September 21

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1684 Take profit: 1.1710

Buy: 1.1712 Take profit: 1.1744

Sell: 1.1623 Take profit: 1.1594

Sell: 1.1592 Take profit: 1.1541

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The key levels for the pound/dollar pair are 1.2866, 1.2797, 1.2754, 1.2691, 1.2606, 1.2546, 1.2463 and 1.2417. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure from September 18.Moreover, the downward movement is expected to continue after breaking through the level of 1.2690. In this case, the target is 1.2606. On the other hand, there is a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation in the range of 1.2606 - 1.2546. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to a strong decline. Our next target will be 1.2463. For the potential value for the bottom, we have the level of 1.2417. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation and upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2754 - 1.2797. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to a deep correction. The next target is 1.2866, which is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure from September 18

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2754 Take profit: 1.2796

Buy: 1.2798 Take profit: 1.2866

Sell: 1.2689 Take profit: 1.2607

Sell: 1.2605 Take profit: 1.2547

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The key levels for the dollar/franc pair are 0.9321, 0.9279, 0.9259, 0.9215, 0.9191, 0.9160 and 0.9132. We are following the upward structure from September 16 here. Now, a short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.9259 - 0.9279. The breakdown of the last value will allow us to count on a movement to a potential target of 0.9321. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9215 - 0.9191. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 0.9160, which is the key support for the top and the price passing this level will cancel the formation of initial conditions for a downward cycle. The first potential target here is 0.9132.

The main trend is the upward cycle of September 16

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9259 Take profit: 0.9279

Buy : 0.9281 Take profit: 0.9320

Sell: 0.9215 Take profit: 0.9192

Sell: 0.9189 Take profit: 0.9160

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The key levels for the dollar/yen are 106.21, 106.02, 105.73, 105.51, 105.28, 105.11 and 104.86. We are following the development of the downward pattern from September 21. Moreover, a short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 105.51 - 105.73. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to a strong growth. Here, the target is 106.02. We consider the level 106.21 as a potential value for the top. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation and downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 105.28 - 105.11. In case that the last value breaks down, it will lead to a deep correction. The target is 104.86, which is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure from September 21

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 105.52 Take profit: 105.71

Buy : 105.75 Take profit: 106.02

Sell: 105.28 Take profit: 105.12

Sell: 105.08 Take profit: 104.86

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The key levels for the USD/CAD pair are 1.3573, 1.3507, 1.3457, 1.3430, 1.3382, 1.3351 and 1.3303. Here, we consider the upward structure of September 18 as medium-term. The upward movement is expected to continue after the price passes the noise range 1.3430 - 1.3457. In this case, the target is 1.3507 and there is consolidation near this level. On the other hand, we consider the level 1.3573 as a potential value for the top. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3382 - 1.3351. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to a deep correction. The target is 1.3303, which is a key support for the main trend.

The main trend is the local upward structure of September 18

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3457 Take profit: 1.3507

Buy : 1.3509 Take profit: 1.3573

Sell: 1.3382 Take profit: 1.3351

Sell: 1.3349 Take profit: 1.3305

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The key levels for the AUD/USD pair are 0.7163, 0.7112, 0.7082, 0.7037, 0.7005 and 0.6961. Now, we are following the development of the downward trend cycle from September 16. Here, a short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.7037 - 0.7005, breaking through the last value will lead to a movement to a potential target - 0.6961. We expect an upward pullback from this level.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7082 - 0.7112. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction, which will lead us to the next target of 0.7163.

The main trend is the downward cycle from September 16

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7082 Take profit: 0.7112

Buy: 0.7114 Take profit: 0.7160

Sell : 0.7035 Take profit : 0.7007

Sell: 0.7003 Take profit: 0.6965

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The key levels for the euro/yen pair are 124.23, 123.81, 123.56, 123.16, 122.41, 121.86, 121.20 and 120.74. We are following the local descending structure from September 18 here. So now, decline is expected to continue after breaking through the level of 122.41. In this case, the target is 121.86 and there is consolidation near this level. If the target breaks down, it will lead to a sharp decline. Here, our next target is 121.20. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 120.74. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation and upward pullback.

Meanwhile, leaving into a correction is expected after the breakdown of 123.16. The target is 123.56, while the range of 123.56 - 123.81 is the key support for the downward structure. The price passing this range will lead to the development of an upward structure. Here, the first potential target is 124.23.

The main trend is the local descending structure of September 18

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 123.16 Take profit: 123.56

Buy: 123.81 Take profit: 124.23

Sell: 122.40 Take profit: 121.88

Sell: 121.84 Take profit: 121.20

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The key levels for the pound/yen pair are 135.77, 135.00, 134.49, 133.44, 132.65, 131.63 and 131.04. Here, we are following the local descending structure from September 10th. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 133.44 - 132.65. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to a strong decline The target here is 131.63. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 131.04. Upon reaching which, we expect an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 134.49 - 135.00 and breaking through the last value will lead to a deep correction. The next target is 135.77, which is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the local descending structure of September 10

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 134.49 Take profit: 135.00

Buy: 135.03 Take profit: 135.75

Sell: 133.44 Take profit: 132.67

Sell: 132.63 Take profit: 131.63

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 24, 2020

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We continue to look for a clear break above minor resistance at 134.57 to confirm the completion of the correction in wave ii/ and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave iii/ to above the former peak at 142.72.

In the short-term, we will see support at 133.53 which we expect to protect the downside for renewed upside pressure for a clear break above minor resistance at 134.54 and more importantly above resistance at 135.55 that confirms wave ii/ is completed and wave iii/ higher is in motion.

R3: 136.00

R2: 135.55

R1: 134.57

Pivot: 133.96

S1: 133.53

S2: 133.48

S3: 133.14

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 133.51 with our stop placed at 133.00

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for September 24, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has made a new swing low at the level of 1.1644 despite the oversold market conditions on the H4 time frame chart. The levels of 1.1655, 1.1697 and 1.1710 will now act as an intraday technical resistance for the price. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1590, which is a 50% Fibonacci retracement level on a Daily time frame chart. The momentum remains weak and negative, so another wave down is anticipated. The weekly time frame trend remains up, but the up trend is very close to be terminated.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2077

WR2 - 1.1988

WR1 - 1.1919

Weekly Pivot - 1.1829

WS1 - 1.1748

WS2 -1.1662

WS3 - 1.1583

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 24, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

Despite the oversold market conditions, the GBP/USD pair has hit the 38% Fibonacci retracement located on the level of 1.2697 on the Daily time frame chart. The immediate technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.2749 and it should temporary stop any bullish attempts. The intraday technical support is seen at the levels of 1.2686 and 1.2668. Momentum is weak and negative, which supports the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3253

WR2 - 1.3131

WR1 - 1.3027

Weekly Pivot - 1.2896

WS1 - 1.2795

WS2 -1.2660

WS3 - 1.2557

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 24, 2020

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The short-term triangle consolidation continues as the penultimate wave before the final dip towards our ideal target at 122.15 to complete wave 2/ and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave 3/ to above the former peak at 127.07.

The short-term triangle is now so far advanced that a break-down is imminent. A break below minor support at 122.55 confirms that the triangle is completed and the final dip to 122.15 is in motion.

R3: 123.43

R2: 123.19

R1: 122.95

Pivot: 122.70

S1: 122.55

S2: 122.30

S3: 122.15

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 123.90 and we will take profit+revers our short-position to a long EUR position at 122.25 or upon a break above 123.25

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EUR/USD. US dollar is increasing in price, while Euro is heading downwards

The US dollar index continues to ascend. During the Asian session on Thursday, the indicator reached 94.47 - the last time it hit such heights was two months ago, at the end of July. The upward trend of the greenback has been observed since September 17, and this dynamic is stable and consistent. Many factors that recently put pressure on the US currency have become its allies and are now participating in its growth. For example, the coronavirus factor again "switched to the side" of the greenback - the surge of the incidence in many countries of the world played into the hands of dollar bulls, as the American dollar returned to the status of a protective asset. At the same time, in the States themselves, the COVID-19 spread and mortality rates are gradually decreasing (despite remaining at a high level). For comparison, at the height of the pandemic during spring, more than two thousand people a day died from COVID-19 in the United States, while at this moment, this sad figure is about 700-800 people. Although the United States ranks first in the world in terms of the number of deaths from COVID-19, some countries in Europe and Latin America still record more deaths per capita.analytics5f6c2f4d9615f.jpg

In the context of the "coronavirus factor," the dollar is also supported by Trump's promises regarding the development of a COVID-19 vaccine. The current US President assured the Americans that the corresponding drug will be approved and put into mass production by the end of this year - allegedly, 100 million doses of the new vaccine will be created by January 1. On one hand, his words here can be considered as merely a pre-election PR. On the other hand, specialized American experts do not refute such a pleasing scenario, although they "shift" the time frame for several months ahead. As you know, the White House initiated the implementation of a program called "Operation Warp Speed." The Trump administration has pledged to deliver 300 million doses of the approved vaccine by early next year.

Meanwhile, quarantine restrictions are being tightened in continental Europe. Great Britain, France, Spain, the Czech Republic, and Germany are at the forefront of these events. In particular, in Britain, the maximum increase in coronavirus cases since May was recorded the day before. The daily increase is estimated in thousands, causing alarm to both medical professionals and traders. Negative dynamics continue in many European and Asian countries. The tightening of quarantine measures will negatively affect the recovery of the global economy, which was already recovering at a rather weak pace.

The demand for the US currency has been provoked by such trends, which is again used by the market as a protective tool. In addition, dollar bulls have reacted to recent political events in the US. The house of representatives, controlled by the Democrats, "prematurely" agreed on the issue of funding the government, thus avoiding a shutdown. The corresponding bill was sent to the US Senate, but the Republicans are "ruining the show" there, so there should be no problems. Against this background, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced that the White House continues to hold talks with congressmen on a bipartisan bill to provide assistance to the American economy. These words were also positively received by the market, despite the fact that the Minister has already voiced similar theses more than once. But in this case, Mnuchin's rhetoric sounded "at the right time in the right place." After the statement of the head of the Ministry of Finance, the demand for the US currency increased again.

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Short positions are definitely a priority in the euro-dollar pair. On the daily chart, the price overcame the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator and is now drifting within the Kumo cloud. The goal of the southern movement is the 1.1600 mark, which corresponds to the lower border of this cloud. There are no significant technical barriers to achieving this target. The 1.1600 mark is a key support level, since if it is broken, the Ichimoku indicator on D1 will form a bearish "Parade of lines" signal, indicating the prospects for a deeper fall – up to the 1.1490 mark, which corresponds to the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart. In addition, if buyers "lose" the 16th figure, any more or less large-scale growth will be used by traders as an excuse to open short positions. In principle, this trend is already being observed, but if it falls below the 1.1600 mark, this pattern will be more noticeable. Therefore, from the current positions, we can consider sales – at least, the path to the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on D1 has already been "cleared."

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on September 24? Plan for opening and closing trades on

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair calmly moved down on Thursday night, preventing the MACD indicator from easing to the zero level. Let me remind you that this is necessary in order for the signals generated by this indicator to be more timely. However, as long as there are no upward corrections, the indicator will not ease as it should. On the other hand, a descending channel has finally appeared at the disposal of novice traders, within which the pair is traded. Therefore, you can now trade in relation to this channel: as long as the price is inside it - you can trade lower, as soon as the price settles above it - you can open long positions. The euro/dollar pair went below the horizontal channel $1.17-1.19 by 50 points, which only increases the likelihood of forming a new downward trend.

The fundamental background for today may be interesting, or it may be absent altogether. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin are set to appear before the Congress. The problem is that both financiers have already spoken this week in the same setting, but before a different committee and, most likely, the content of their speeches today will not differ from what was on Tuesday. If so, then the markets will not bear any new information for themselves. Accordingly, they will have nothing to react to during the day. Nevertheless, both economists can still tell the traders something new, therefore you should not skip their speeches and also be prepared that there might be no significant reaction. In general, the US dollar made a significant step forward against the euro - it left the horizontal channel. Thus, the initiative is now on the side of this currency, as well as the advantage. The data on applications for unemployment benefits, which will be released in the US in the afternoon, is interesting only from a general point of view. If the number of secondary claims for benefits continues to decrease, this, in fact, will mean a decrease in the unemployment rate in the country, which is good for the US dollar...

Possible scenarios for September 24:

1) Novice traders are recommended to not consider buying at this time, since there is not a single signal to them yet. However, now we have a descending channel that we can use, setting the price above will allow us to start trading upward. In this case, the first targets for long positions are the levels of 1.1782 and 1.1744. If this scenario is realized, then the pair may return to the $1.17-1.19 horizontal channel.

2) Selling does not look appropriate at this time, however, if quotes settle above the descending channel, it will break the entire technical picture. The MACD indicator still needs to be discharged to the zero level, but the pair is likely to leave the descending channel and all sell signals will no longer be relevant. Thus, we recommend trading for a decline within the descending channel while aiming for support levels 1.1634 and 1.1608, and move the Stop Loss levels outside the channel in case the price leaves it.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 24, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro has reached the nearest target level of 1.1650 yesterday, and this morning, it is correcting slightly upwards with the support of the Marlin oscillator turning to the upside.

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Correction, or consolidation before reaching the target support may last for the entire day. The data on new home sales in the US for the month of August will be released today, and the forecast is a slight decrease to 890,000 against 901,000 in July. In general, the achieved indicators are at the levels of the first quarter of 2007, at the peak of construction development before the mortgage crisis, but investors would like to see even better indicators.

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The Marlin has formed a small convergence on the 4-hour chart. This element fits well into our proposed version of today's flat. Volatility could increase with the release of data on applications for unemployment benefits, since the Federal Reserve last spoke about prioritizing the labor market, and at the beginning of the week, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, suddenly announced that the US central bank could raise the rate even before inflation reaches 2.0 % (as we assumed earlier). Therefore, it would be good for investors to carefully think over today's indicators. And they can start taking action when data on orders for durable goods is released on Friday, which will confirm (or not confirm) today's data. In any case, the price going below 1.1650 is a signal for new short positions. Aim for 1.1550.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on September 24, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar managed to reach the target range of 0.7065-0.7110 yesterday. The price is trying to go even lower today in the Asian session. The 0.6970 target will probably be reached soon, which is near the area where the channel line passes. The Australian dollar, especially after sharply moving yesterday, should be helped by external markets. Currently, non-ferrous metals and hydrocarbons are listed as mixed. The hitch will cause the price to reach the support of the price channel only on September 30 (checkmark).

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The Marlin oscillator lies in a horizontal direction on the four-hour chart. This is either preparation for a further decline or for a deeper reversal of the indicator. In this case, settling below 0.7065 is an important sign of intentions to decline in the long term.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on September 24, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen broke through the price channel line and reached the intermediate Fibonacci level of 110.0% on Wednesday. The powerful convergence of the price and the Marlin oscillator continues to work, now the yen is aiming for the Fibonacci level of 106.00, or slightly higher, where the MACD line passes. But the main goal of the USD/JPY pair is the upper line of the price channel (also embedded) around the area of the 106.40 level, since overcoming it will guarantee a medium-term price growth (targets 107.35, 108.20 and higher).

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The four-hour chart shows that the price has firmly settled in the area above the balance and MACD indicator lines. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator falls into the horizon, which may be a harbinger of a local price decline in the 105.00/15 range, formed by support of the MACD line (H4) and the price channel line (daily).

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 24. The main outsiders of 2020: the US dollar and the pound

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -82.6970

The British pound spent the third trading day of the week in a slightly weakened downward movement. The pair's quotes fell to 1.2700 and could not continue moving down. Thus, the US currency retains an advantage over the pound, but now it does not look as convincing as a couple of weeks ago. How can we not remember and compare it with the movement of the euro/dollar pair? The European currency has lost at most 250 points if you count from the last high of the price. That is, it is only the pound sterling that has fallen in price against the currently weak US dollar. We have already repeatedly discussed the reasons for this. And now, it seems that the markets have completely worked out all the negative from the UK and are now thinking about what to do next? Just at this moment, the information "arrived" that the final vote on "Johnson's bill" will be held no earlier than December-month. This was stated yesterday by the British newspaper The Times, whose opinion can be trusted. The publisher reports that in this way London will try to ease the tension that has arisen in the negotiations with Brussels. We have our point of view.

We believe that Boris Johnson is simply trying to put pressure on Brussels with a new bill that allows a violation of the current agreement on the Northern Ireland border. Now it has become clear and obvious. First, Johnson announced this high-profile law, and now it will be "finalized" by the Parliament until the EU summit in mid-October, as well as before the deadline for negotiations with Brussels, which was set by Johnson himself. Thus, when the deadline expires and the EU summit is passed, it will already be known for sure whether a deal will take place between the UK and the EU. And if not, Johnson will be able to push his bill through Parliament. Now it seems to give the European Union an opportunity and a chance to "come to its senses" and be more accommodating in the remaining weeks of negotiations as if showing that London is not afraid to go into open conflict with the European Union and violate the principles of international law. From our point of view, such a strategy is a failure. It is suitable for beginners in chess or poker, but not for the Prime Minister of Great Britain. The essence of any bluff is that the opponents do not understand that it is a bluff. In the case of Boris Johnson, the opposite is true. His "hidden" actions are obvious to everyone. The whole world understands that Johnson can go to such a violation of the current agreement, however, this will harm first of all himself and his country. Further, Brussels will not follow the lead of 10 Downing Street. Because in this case, Boris Johnson will start "twisting the ropes" from the European Union, each time coming up with new threats and opportunities for pressure and blackmail. In doing so, it harms the whole of the UK, which is simply losing its international reputation and credibility. But the country still has to conclude trade agreements with many countries of the world after the final break with the EU. What will these negotiations be like if everyone in the world understands that at any moment London can violate any agreement? It also harms itself and its reputation. Johnson's political ratings are already declining, as the British are not happy with the way the government conducted the fight against the "coronavirus", the fact that the second "wave" has now begun in the country, which means that new strict restrictions will be introduced and many fines for non-compliance with quarantine measures will already be increased. Moreover, already in mid-September, the incidence rates in the UK almost reached the maximum values of the spring. What will happen next? This is a matter of life and health for the British nation. People in the UK can't help but understand this, and most likely, the stronger the second "wave" is, the more displeasure there will be with Boris Johnson's rule.

According to the Prime Minister himself, "it is time for everyone to show discipline, determination, and a spirit of unity to get through this". A beautiful pathos speech, in the best traditions of Johnson's "big brother" Donald Trump. The American President also knows how to talk beautifully and forget that it is the States that are in the first place in the world in terms of morbidity and mortality from COVID-2019. Boris Johnson also promised not to introduce a "hard" quarantine or a full "lockdown", however, in our humble opinion, if the wave is strong, he will have to do it. Thus, a new page of hard tests begins for the British economy, as well as for the British Prime Minister, who still has very few victories in office.

Thus, in the near future, the pound may remain under market pressure, solely due to the growing new wave of the pandemic. The more cases of the disease are recorded every day, the more likely it is that the British currency will fall further. As for other factors, there is no new data yet. Both the British pound and the US dollar remain in limbo. Traders in both currencies fear an uncertain future, which is expressed in the UK by the unknown scale of the second "wave" of the pandemic and, accordingly, the unknown timing of monetary policy easing by the Bank of England. Also, it is unclear what the real economic consequences of a British exit from the EU with no free trade agreement, and what are the consequences of the implementation of the law "on the domestic UK market". In the situation with the US dollar, there are even more unanswered questions. It is unclear how the election will end. It is unknown when the first "wave" of the "coronavirus epidemic" will end. It is unknown whether Republicans and Democrats will agree on a new package of assistance to the American economy. In general, in the next two or three months, until the new year 2021, both the pound and the US dollar may significantly fall in price. Everything will depend on the current fundamental background.

From a technical point of view, a round of upward correction to the moving average line may now begin, but we do not see why the British currency can continue to strengthen above the moving average. Accordingly, we expect the resumption of the downward trend, which is already signaled by the lower channel of linear regression directed downwards.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 135 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Thursday, September 24, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2634 and 1.2904. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back down to signal the completion of the spiral upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2695

S2 – 1.2634

S3 – 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2756

R2 – 1.2817

R3 – 1.2878

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe began to adjust to the moving average. Thus, today it is recommended to open new short positions with targets of 1.2695 and 1.2634 as soon as the Heiken Ashi indicator turns back down or the price bounces off the moving average line. It is recommended to trade the pair for an increase with targets of 1.2904 and 1.2939 if the price returns to the area above the moving average line.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 24. The battle for the Supreme Court between Democrats and Republicans has begun.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -124.2894

On the third trading day, the EUR/USD pair continued its downward movement, as indicated by the Heiken Ashi indicator. The pair has fallen below the $ 1.17- $ 1.19 side channel, however, it can't continue its steady downward movement yet. Thus, there is a high probability that the lateral movement is completed. You can trade for a decrease, taking into account the readings of the Heiken Ashi indicator. At the same time, we recommend that you be cautious about buying the US currency, as there are still very few fundamental growth factors.

All the latest news for the US currency was related exclusively to the speeches of Jerome Powell and Steven Mnuchin in the US Congress. We've already talked about this, and Jerome Powell will be speaking three times before three congressional committees this week. Most likely, each of his next speech will differ little from the previous one. Further, in his first speech, he did not tell the markets anything fundamentally important. According to Powell, the economy is recovering at a good pace, however, additional funds are still needed to provide financial assistance to the sectors most affected by the pandemic. Powell also believes that the recovery of the American economy will depend on the success of the US government in the fight against the "coronavirus". Steven Mnuchin supports his colleague and predicted that the US economy will grow significantly in the third quarter. "The recovery is proceeding at a steady pace because the President's administration and Congress worked together to agree on the largest economic aid package in American history. The Fed also played an important role in the recovery, providing 13 unique credit mechanisms to economic entities." According to Steven Mnuchin, Congress and the presidential administration continue to negotiate the fourth package of financial assistance. "Full recovery will occur when people are confident that it is safe to return to various activities. Further economic growth will depend on when the virus is brought under control, as well as on the political actions taken by the government," said Jerome Powell. However, the country's top two financiers believe that the economy needs new monetary incentives, and also consider the risks of a pandemic high. From our point of view, these are all negative factors and news for the US currency. It was obvious that the economy would recover with the cancellation of lockdown. In all countries of the world that managed to suppress the pandemic (at least temporarily) and that lifted the "strict" quarantine measures, there is a recovery. The main questions are how fast the economy is recovering (and it is not the subjective opinion of Powell or Mnuchin that is important here, but specific figures) and how strong the impact of the next waves of the coronavirus epidemic will be on the economy.

In addition to talking about the economy and monetary policy, Steven Mnuchin touched on the topic of unemployment, saying that since April, almost 11 million jobs have been restored - that is, about half. At the same time, the debate continues between Democrats and Republicans about the size of the new stimulus package and also about the judicial appointment to the US Supreme Court after the death of Ruth Ginsburg. Media reports that Donald Trump, along with the leader of the Republican majority in the Senate, Senator Mitch McConnell, wants to appoint a new judge to the vacant seat before the November 3 election. Thus, Republicans will be able to count on 5 or 6 votes out of 9 possible in the event of disputes that may reach the Supreme Court. According to current US law, the US Senate, in which the majority of votes belongs to Republicans, must approve the candidacy of a new judge. Thus, most likely, a Trump judge will be appointed, and the advantage in the main judicial body of the country will be obtained.

Further, this will be a huge advantage for Trump before the upcoming elections. The fact is that many American media and experts have almost no doubt that immediately after the election, both presidential candidates will appeal to the Supreme Court, expressing their disagreement with the results. More precisely, only the loser is likely to go to court. Since there is a 70-80% probability that it will be Donald Trump, it is the current US President who needs the support of the Supreme judges. Moreover, this is not an ephemeral or hypothetical assumption. In 2000, the late Hen Ginsburg allowed a recount in the state of Florida. And then this recount brought victory to Republican George W. Bush. Thus, even a recount of votes in a single state can cost a candidate a victory.

Democrats are still strongly opposed to the appointment of a new judge, accusing Senator Mitch McConnell of hypocrisy since he was against a similar appointment of a new judge before the presidential election in 2016. Then the initiative came from Democrat Barack Obama. McConnell personally said at the time that it was inappropriate to appoint a judge in an election year. Joe Biden himself addressed Republican senators: "We need to de-escalate the conflict, not escalate it. Listen to your conscience and don't vote to approve any candidate in the circumstances that President Trump and Senator McConnell created." Thus, in the near future, we will find out whether the US Senate will meet Biden halfway. If not, Trump will indeed have a powerful weapon against Joe Biden in the election. Trump will be able to initiate a recount in any state or several at once. Thus, Biden will need a clear victory by a large margin. Recall that at the moment, according to the latest opinion polls and research, Biden is ahead of Trump by at least 8%. In several "swing states," Joe Biden is the leader. However, in North Carolina, Florida, and several other states, its advantage is minimal.

We believe that the victory or growing probability of Donald Trump winning the election is a bearish factor for the US currency. We believe that the absolute majority of Americans understand that the current government has failed to cope with international politics, the coronavirus epidemic, and mass rallies and protests. Thus, a change of power will be the most reasonable scenario for the United States. But power is a thing that no one gives up voluntarily and easily. Therefore, there is no doubt that Trump will fight to the last. Plus, we remind you that it was Trump who repeatedly stated that he needed a "cheap" dollar. Therefore, for the US dollar, President Trump is almost in any case dangerous.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of September 24 is 87 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1601 and 1.1775 today. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back upward signals a round of upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1688

S2 – 1.1658

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1719

R2 – 1.1749

R3 – 1.1775

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement and overcome the side channel. Thus, now you can continue to hold short positions with targets of 1.1658 and 1.1601 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upward. It is recommended to re-consider options for opening long positions if the pair is fixed above the moving average with the first targets of 1.1810 and 1.1841.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com