EUR/NZD analysis for September 01, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of 1.5650 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2% is broken) in an ultra high volume (selling climax), which is a sign that buying looks very risky. It is still unsafe to buy anything, so watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. Since the price has broken the level of 1.5710 in a higher volume, we may see potential testing the level of 1.5595. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe sideways market, which is a sign that buying looks risky. Watch for potential selling opportunities.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5745


R2: 1.5765


R3: 1.5797


Support levels:


S1: 1.5681


S2: 1.5661


S3: 1.5629


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.


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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for September 1-5, 2014

The weekly technical levels of GBP/USD pair.


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Trading recommendations :



  • According to the previous events, the price of the GBP/USD pair has still been trapped between the levels of 1.6630 and 1.6582.

  • When buying above 1.6582 (the weekly pivot point) with the first target of 1.6628 (resistance 1), it can resume to 1.6658 to test the weekly resistance 2.

  • Below the level of 1.6660 (161.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels) look for further downside with 1.6634 and 1.6582 targets.


Idea about resistance and support :



  • R3 and S3 are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through. Pivot lines work well on the sideways markets as prices are most likely to be located between the R1 and S1 lines. Within a strong trend, the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continue moving. If the breaking news released may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 and R3 or S2 and S3.



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Observations :



  • If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency pair will be defined as following: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.

  • Fibonacci retracement is used to determine accurate psychological levels of support and resistance. The period of time should be taken into account. Fibonacci is in a trading range; it looks like the trend is trapped and going up and down. If you sell or buy in the long term in this period, you will surely lose your profit.


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Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD for September 1-5, 2014

The weekly technical levels of EUR/USD pair.


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Trading recommendations :



  • According to the previous events, the price of the EUR/USD pair has still been moving between the levels of 1.3110 and 1.3150. Moreover, it should be noted that the market was quite stable and the trend was also clear (downward), but the range was not very large around 89 pips last week. Additionally, the value of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels is 1.3165 (the weekly pivot point is set at the price of 1.3161). So, the key level of 1.3161 is presented for a downtrend to confirm a bearish market. This level will act as strong resistance because it coincides with the weekly pivot point on the first of September, 2014. Therefore, sell deals are recommended below the 1.3161 level with targets at the level of 1.3131 in order to form a double bottom at this level, and it will resume towards 1.3101 to try testing the weekly support 1.


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Intraday technical level s:


Date and Time:1/09/2014 13:15


Pair:EUR/USD



  • Projected high:1.3394

  • Breakout (buy stop):1.3339

  • Strong resistance (sell limit):1.3309

  • Current pivot:1.3176

  • Strong support (buy limit):1.3042

  • Breakout (sell stop):1.3017

  • Projected low:1.2967


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 01, 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.5725


R2: 1.5692


R1: 1.5682


Current spot: 1.5668


S1: 1.5649


S2: 1.5589


S3: 1.5543


Technical summary:


We were looking for a more complex correction towards 1.5589 after the break below 1.5692 and that expectation has proved correct. In the short term, we expect minor resistance at 1.5682 to protect the upside for the next move lower towards the 61.8% corrective target at 1.5589, before a more sustained upside pressure can be expected. Only an unexpected break above resistance at 1.5760 tells us, that the correction is over and a new rally towards 1.5900 and higher is developing.


Trading recommendation:


We are looking to buy EUR near 1.5595 or upon a break above 1.5725 with stop placed at 1.5535.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 01, 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 137.29


R2: 136.92


R1: 136.82


Current spot: 136.74


S1: 136.41


S2: 136.06


S3: 135.73


Technical summary:


Short-term important resistance at 137.29 has potected the upside, which keeps the sight locked firmly on the equality target between wave A and Wave C at 134.34. In the short run, we would like to see a break below minor support at 136.41 to confirm the next decline towards the long-term target at 134.34. That said, we have to be aware of the risk scenario, which shows a possible inverse S/H/S bottom. This formation needs a break above minor short-term resistance at 137.29. More importantly, it needs a break above the neckline resistance at 138.00 to confirm a rally towards 140.00 and evidently much higher.


Trading recommendation:


We are short in EUR from 137.75 with stop+reverse placed at 137.35. If you are not short in EUR yet, selling should be near 136.95 with the same stop+reverse at 137.35.


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#USDX Technical analysis for September 1, 2014

The Dollar index tested our critical support at 82.40 on Friday and made a strong reversal above the 82.54 resistance level. The new high at 82.80 shows that Dollar remains in a strong up trend that could reach 83. Last week, I was bearish about the Dollar index as long as price was below 82.54. Breaking above that level canceled my bearish scenario and pushed the index to new highs.


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The Dollar index has broken above the Ichimoku cloud once again in the 4 hour chart. The short-term trend remains bullish. The index is making higher highs and higher lows. Support is found at 82.60 and resistance at 83. A new high above 82.80 is expected before a deeper pull back. As long as price is above 82.40, the trend will remain bullish and short positions should be avoided.


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The daily chart shows how price remains inside the upward sloping channel. The ichimoku cloud is well below the current price level. The trend will change if the Dollar index breaks below 82.40. Until then, bulls remain in control. If that level is broken, we should expect a move towards 81.85.


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Gold Technical analysis for September 1, 2014

Gold price has held above support and continues to make higher lows. Three higher lows so far have brought Gold price in the 4 hour chart inside the Ichimoku cloud area keeping bullish hopes alive. Our target remains $1,350.


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Gold price has entered the Ichimoku cloud area where the trend is neutral. After making a low at $1,272, gold price has made three higher lows and is most probably preparing for a new break out. Resistance is found at $1,295. Breaking and closing above that level will be a bullish sign. Support is found at $1,280 and $1,270. Breaking below $1,280 will give us a sell sign that will most probably push price sharply towards $1,270.


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The daily chart continues to show how price is hitting the Ichimoku cloud and tries to penetrate it. Support is at $1,270 in the daily chart. Entering the Ichimoku cloud will give Gold price a push towards $1,305 and even a spike towards $1,340-50. As long as Gold price is inside the red triangle, our target will remain at $1,340-50.


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Weekly forecast and an intraday analysis of GBP/JPY for September 01-05, 2014

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The pair successfully closed above 20WSma on the previous weeks, trading in a 4-week high. The pair came out of an 8-week trading range. The pair has weekly support at the 172.35 level. On a weekly basis, the pair has the nearest strong resistance at 172.90. The pair has just made a high at 172.92 in Asia's session and trading at 172.76. A daily close is above 173, the weekly trend turns to positive for a sharp run up to 173.30, 173.50, 174, and 174.20.


In case a daily close is below 169, strong selling will resume. - pending


In case a daily close is above 173, strong upmove is intact. - pending


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Weekly forecast and an intraday analysis of EUR/JPY for September 01-05, 2014

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The pair has been rejected thrice at the broken bottom of the triangle, support became resistance. In the daily chart, the pair hit the short and near-term moving averages and the prices are closed below that. We can see an inverse H&S pattern in the daily chart. The price falls through the left shoulder support level and bounced from there on Thursday's session. The neck line existed at the 138.02 level. The pair will face selling pressure below the 136.36 levels towards 136.16 and 136-135.72 .


Until the price closes above the 137 level on a daily basis, sell on a rise on a weekly basis.


Until the price closes above the 138.75 level on a daily basis, sell on every rise on a monthly basis.


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For an intraday outlook, the prices are closed and trading below 12ema level. On the down side, it has support at 136.59, 136.41, and 136.36. We recommend selling below 136.36 for an immediate target 136.20-136.17; breaking below this at the 135.85 and 135.70 levels.


Sell below 136.35 or sell on an upmove with sl 137.10.


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Weekly forecast and an intraday analysis of Gold for September 01-05, 2014

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The metal managed to close in green at the previous week, but it was unable to close above 50WSma. The metal is still sitting above the triangle bottom. The trading pattern of the metal is framed between the $1,270-$1,295 - $1,305 levels. On the upper side, it has resistance at $1,295 (100Dsma and 20Dsma), above this at 1305 (50DSma). On the down side, it has support at $1,284 (200Dsma).


When a weekly close is above $1,291- ST, the trend turns to positive. - Pending


When a daily close is above $1,305, we expect strong upmove towards the upper end of the triangle. - Pending


When a daily close is below $1,284, selling pressure will emerge towards $1,282, $1,280, $1,276, and $1,272.


When a break is below $1,270, panic will trigger movement towards $1,258.


Intraday cmp $1,286.


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The metal rejected at 12ema in an early Pacific session. For an intraday basis, the prices are closed and the metal is trading above 21hrsma and the 34hrsma levels. If a h4 candle closes above 12ema ($1,287), we expect a strong upmove towards $1,291, $1,292.40, and $1,295-$1,296. The metal has an hourly support at $1,285.50, $1,284 and $1,283 levels. We recommend selling below $1,283 with the target at $1,280, $1,276, and $1,274 levels.


Buy above $1,287.


Sell below $1,283.


Above $1,291, huge short covering will take towards $1,295, $1,300, and $1,305-$1,307.


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Monthly forecast and an intraday recommendation on EUR/USD for September 01-05, 2014

EUR/USD


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Monthly view - September, 2014


The strong US dollar pushed the Euro to 1.3132 and closed at the lowest point in the previous week and month as well. The pair has the nearest minor support at 1.3105-1.31 and 1.30 is the major support. This week's crucial data is going to hit the wires at the ECB press conference on Thursday. Traders keep an eye on this event. On the higher side 1.3250 is the inital monthly resistance, above this 1.3420 is the major one. The pair closed at the lowest point of the month. It indicates some more room for downside in the ST for the 1.30 and 1.2766 levels.


Support is at 1.3105-1.31, 1.30, and 1.2766.


Resistance is at 1.3250, 1.3420, and 1.3540.


Until the pair closes below 1.3294, selling on a rise is the best strategy for the weekly and monthly basis.


Intraday cmp 1.3128.


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The pair is struggling to cross 1.3135 in an early Pacific session. We recommend buying only above 1.3150 for an hourly trading / speculation perspective. The pair has resistance at the 1.3148 1.3176, 1.3187, and 1.32 levels. Until the price closes below 1.32, selling on an up move will gain profit.


Resistance is at 1.3148, 1.3176, and 1.3197.


Safe buy above 1.3150, strong up move only above 1.32.


Fresh sell only below 1.31.


Bears - Sell on a rise, until the h4 candle close above 1.32.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 01, 2014

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When the European market opens, some important news are expected in the economic calendar such as German Final GDP q/q, Spanish Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI. But the US will not release the economic data because of the bank holiday. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.


TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3192.

Strong Resistance:1.3184.

Original Resistance: 1.3171.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3158.

Target Inner Area: 1.3127.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3096.

Original Support: 1.3083.

Strong Support: 1.3070.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3062. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 01, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will release the Capital Spending q/y and Final Manufacturing PMI. However, the US will not release any economic data because a bank holiday. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the day.


TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 104.70.

Resistance. 2: 104.48.

Resistance. 1: 104.29.

Support. 1: 104.04.

Support. 2: 103.84.

Support. 3: 103.63. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for September 1, 2014

EUR/USD: With the clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, this pair has the potential to move further southward. One reason for this is the palpable weakness in the Euro. The price may go further south, testing the support line at 1.3100. The outlook for this week is generally bearish.


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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF has been able to stay above the support level at 0.9150. In fact, the price is now trading upwards, going towards the resistance level at 0.9200. That is the target for this week.


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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD is still caught in its consolidation to the upside. The GBP is not as weak as the EUR and therefore, the Cable seems poised for an exponential breakout that may favor buyers. This can result in a long-term uptrend and it would materialize as soon as the price crosses the distribution territory at 1.6650 to the upside.


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USD/JPY: This pair is also trending upwards and it may reach the supply level at 104.50 this week. On Friday, August 29, 2014, the price closed at 104.08. This close was slightly above the demand level at 104.00, and the price may go further downwards from there. The market is presently strong.


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EUR/JPY: There is no question about it: the bearish signal that was generated last week on this cross is still valid. The validity holds in spite of the visible volatility in the market. The price may go more bearish and test the demand zones at 136.50 and 136.00 respectively.


5.pngThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for September 01, 2014

Daily chart: the USDX has had a bullish momentum at support level of or 82.51. Since then this instrument is forming a bullish pattern above that level. Now, it is likely that the USDX rise to resistance level of 83.22. However, the USDX could begin to perform corrective movements. The MACD indicator continues in positive territory.


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H4 chart: the USDX has been consolidated under the bullish trend line, since the USDX has found strong resistance at that level. However, if the USDX does a pullback at that level, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 82.35. In addition, a breakout at that level could lead to the USDX falling to the 200-day moving average. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


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H1 chart: the USDX did a bullish rebound at the support level of or 82.50. So now, this instrument is consolidating above the level of 82.67 with the formation of a bullish pattern. If the USDX manages to make a breakout at the resistance level of 82.85, the next target would be the level of 82.97 in this chart. The MACD indicator is entering overbought area.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 82.85, take profit is at 82.97, and stop loss is at 82.72.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 01, 2014

Daily chart: GBP/USD is trying to rise up to the 200-day moving average, which is close to the resistance level of 1.6 668. However, it is worthy to remember that GBP/USD is trying to form a bearish pattern, so this pair could fall back to the support level of 1.6540. The MACD indicator is entering into positive territory.


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H4 chart: This pair is trying to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6615. If it succeeds, it would be expected to rise to the level of 1.6644. However, we should take into account that GBP/USD is conducting corrective movements, so it is very likely that this pair will climb up to the 200-day moving average. The MACD indicator stays in positive territory.


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H1 chart: GBP/USD has performed a bullish rebound at the support level of 1.6578, so now this pair is trying to find resistance at the 200 moving average. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6629, one would expect it to rise to the level of 1.6 700. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6578, take profit is at 1.6544, and stop loss is at 1.6611.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com