Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 12, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bearish bias. The pair managed to hold below its key resistance at 0.9800, which has been tested for several times to confirm the significance of this level. The 20- and 50-period intraday MAs are turning down, and also play as support roles. Moreover, the intraday RSI is above the neutrality level of 50, and calls for a new bounce. In which case, as long as 0.9800 holds on the downside, the pair is expected to post a new down to challenge 0.9660 (the nearest top) in sight. In case of a breakout, look for 0.9860 in extension.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9660. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9635. The pivot point stands at 0.98. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9860 and the second target at 0.9940.

Resistance levels: 0.9860 0.9940 0.9995

Support levels: 0.9660 0.9635 0.96

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 12, 2015

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NZD/USD is exected to trade in a lower range. The pair remains capped by its key resistance at 0.6550, and seems likely to post further upside. Both the ST and intraday outlooks are negative as the key moving averages maintain strong selling pressure. On an intraday basis, even though a technical rebound cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extent should be limited by 0.6675. To sum up, the pair is expected to decline to test its support base around 0.6515. In case of a breakout, look for 0.6500 and 0.6485 as our next targets.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6630 and the second target at 0.6675. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6515. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6465. The pivot point is at 0.6550.

Resistance levels: 0.6630 0.6675 0.6735

Support levels: 0.6515 0.6465 0.6415

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 12, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias. The pair has broken below its previous low and is looking for a higher top. Both rising 20- and 50-period intraday MAs maintain a bearish bias. The intraday RSI is well directed. Further downside is therefore expected with the next horizontal resistance and overlap set 193 at first. A break below this level would call for a further advance towards 192.20. Only a break above the horizontal resistance at 194.50 would open the way to further strengthening towards the 195.05 low of August 11 at first.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is still positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are in a bullish mode.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 193. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 192.20. The pivot point stands at 194.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 195.05 and the second target at 195.40.

Resistance levels: 195.05 195.40 196

Support levels: 193 192.20 191.75

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EUR/NZD analysis for August 12, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. The price tested the level of 1.6823 in a high volume. In the daily time frame, we can observe an up-thrust bar in a high volume. The price has broken our major resistance level (1.6805) but it seems like there is no power for further upward movement. Anyway, our resistance at the price of 1.6805 now became a strong support so do not sell before you see a breakout of that level. Buyers can still load more buying positions. The trend is bullish.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6940

R2: 1.7015

R3: 1.7135

Support levels:

S1: 1.6700

S2: 1.6627

S3: 1.6510

Trading recommendations: Watch for buying opportunities above the price of 1.6805.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 12, 2015

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Overview:

On April 9, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom was reached. This is where the ongoing bullish swing was initiated.

A daily closure above 1.5060 exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where a temporary bearish pullback took place on April 29.

The next bullish swing extended up to the levels of 1.5750-1.5800, which offered traders few valid sell entries (depicted with red arrows). The final bearish target at 1.5450 was already reached.

Recently, strong bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels around 1.5800 via the ongoing bullish swing.

That is why, the resistance level at 1.5800 was temporarily breached. Hence, GBP/USD bulls pursued towards 100% Fibonacci Expansion located around 1.5900 where the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was initiated.

The level of 1.5555 (prominent demand level/depicted uptrend line) got breached earlier last month due to excessive bearish pressure. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards 1.5360.

However, as suggested in the previous articles, a bullish pullback towards 1.5550-1.5600 was expected to take place shortly after.

Our SELL entry which was suggested around 1.5600 got triggered few days ago. Early exit should be considered if the current daily candlestick maintains its closure above 1.5600.

Note that fixation below the price zone of 1.5550-1.5500 is mandatory to pursue towards lower bearish targets, initially at 1.5450. Moreover, it confirms the Double-Top reversal pattern.

A better SELL entry with a lower risk/reward ratio may be offered around the price level of 1.5780 (the upper limit of the consolidation range and the backside of the broken uptrend) if enough bullish pressure is expressed today.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 12, 2015

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Overview:

When bulls pushed the price further above 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs), resulting in a formation of successive lower highs (within the depicted consolidation zone) enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened a way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend).

Bullish support was found around these levels. Successive higher lows were reached. Bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels of 1.2450 and 1.2500 (previous tops).

On the other hand, the previous weekly candlestick was quite bullish. That is why, an extensive bullish movement is seen on the chart.

A bullish breakout above the zone of 1.2770-1.2800 has been executed.

Earlier, signs of lacking bullish momentum were generated on the chart. A bearish corrective movement was initiated towards the levels of 1.2900-1.2850.

However, a new bullish swing has been taking place this week, especially after the bullish engulfing daily candlesticks expressed last week.

The long-term bullish projection target remains projected at the level of 1.3270 (100% Fibonacci Expansion) where bearish pressure should be applied.

However, price action should be watched around the current price level of 1.3050 (Recent Support). Daily closure exposes below the next support levels around 1.2910 then 1.2800 where long-term BUY entries should be considered.

Trading recommendations:

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish pullback towards the recent breakout zone (1.2800-1.2750) for a valid buy entry as the breakout level constitutes a strong recent support.

Stop Loss should be located below the level of 1.2700. T/P levels should be located at 1.2850 and 1.2900.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for August 12, 2015

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Two months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900, which provided evident supply for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, a bearish pullback towards the level of 1.5550 took place. A bearish breakout below 1.5500 took place two weeks ago.

Last week, strong bearish pressure was applied to the level of 1.5550 again. It was beeing broken temporarily until the last week when bullish recovery was expressed.

Contradictory signals are coming from consecutive weekly candlesticks. This indicates lacking bullish momentum above 1.5500.

The previous weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hindered further bearish decline and enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.5680 (previous weekly high).

The current weekly candlestick should be monitored by the end of the week to determine if the weekly closure comes above 1.5500 or below.

The nearest demand level around 1.5200 will become exposed if GBP/USD bears manage to bring trading below the level of 1.5500 again.

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Previously, the zone of 1.5800-1.5880 acted as significant supply. It offered a valid sell entry few weeks ago. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the level of 1.5550, which corresponds to 50% Fibonacci level and a previous prominent top, was temporarily broken allowing further bearish decline towards 1.5350 where an ascending bottom was recently established.

Last week, strong bullish price actions were expressed. A bullish pullback towards 1.5600 took place. The level of 1.5550 was breached during last week's consolidations.

However, Thursday's candlestick came as a bearish engulfing one, which enhanced the bearish side of the market again.

The level of 1.5500 is going to be the significant level to watch for. It corresponds to the short-term uptrend line depicted on the chart. It was temporarily breached on Friday.

However, evident bullish pressure was applied at 1.5450 on Monday. A bullish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed by the end of the day.

The nearest supply levels to meet the GBP/USD pair are located around the price levels of 1.5660 (Multiple Daily Highs) and 1.5770 (prominent Supply level).

On the other hand, the bearish scenario towards 1.5470 and 1.5370 should be considered only if the GBP/USD bears manage to successfully push below 1.5500 again.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 12, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously hit back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997). Bullish recovery was expressed shortly after.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May, June, and July) reflect recent bearish rejection being expressed around 1.1450.

In the long term, a projection target will be still located at 0.9450 if a bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 occurs soon.

A bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 will be possible only if May's monthly high of 1.1465 gets breached (a low probability).

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After such a long bearish rally, which started around the level of 1.1300, bullish rejection took place at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0470, 1.0550, and 1.0850. These levels corresponded to the daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Further bullish pressure was observed until bearish rejection was applied around 1.1400 (long-term double-top reversal pattern).

A daily closure below the level of 1.1150 brought EUR/USD to 1.1000 again. A bearish daily closure below 1.0950 enabled a quick bearish decline towards 1.0850 and 1.0750.

Evident bullish recovery was expressed last week after hitting the level of 1.0800. Since then, bulls have been trying to bring a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1000 and 1.1150 where the backside of the broken uptrend is located.

Bearish rejection should be anticipated around the price zone of 1.1150-1.1180 as it corresponds to the backside of the broken uptrend (depicted on the chart).

On the other hand, daily closure above 1.1150 threatens the previously mentioned bearish scenario. It may allow a quick bullish swing towards 1.1270 and 1.1300.

Trading recommendations:

Conservative traders can take a valid SELL entry around the recently established supply zone (1.1150-1.1170) for a valid sell entry. S/L should be placed above 1.1200.

T/P levels should be located at 1.1100, 1.0850, and 1.0700.

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Gold analysis for August 12 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price went to test the level of $1,119.63. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a demand in a volume above the average. I found a strong trading range between the prices of $1,077.00 (support) and $1,108.00. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe strong demand (wide spread) in an ultra high volume (buying climax) in the background. Our resistance at the price of $1,119.00 is on the test agian. Watch for a potential breakout of our trading range to confirm further direction.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,116.56

R2: 1,122.58

R3: 1,132.50

Support levels:

S1: 1,096.84

S2: 1,090.76

S3: 1,080.90

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold at this stage. Watch for a breakout of our trading range to confirm further direction. Buyers are in control in the short term today.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 12, 2015

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Overview:

  • Depending on the previous events, the last double top has been set at the level of 0.9902 and support is placed at 0.9614. Additionally, the USD/CHF pair has been still trapped between 0.9614 and 0.9902. Besides, the key level is set at 0.9725 because it is representing strong support and is coinciding with the last weekly pivot point of USD/CHF. The double top will be formed at the 0.9902 level, but it seems the price is going to break this level in order to continue towards the level of 0.9902. The level of 0.9952 will be resistance today. Hence, the range of market will be around 241 pips this week. As it is know, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Therefore, it will be a good sign to buy above 0.9725 with the first target of 0.9902. Furthermore, It will call for an uptrend in order to continue its bullish movement towards 0.9952. However, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts, thus the stop loss should be placed below 0.9614 at the price of 0.9585.

Trading recommendations:

  • According to the previous events, the price of USD/CHF is going to move between 0.9614 and 0.9902 .
  • Buy above the level of 0.9725 with the first target of 0.9902, it might resume to 0.9952.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 12, 2015

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair on August 12, 2015.
  • The resistance of the NZD/USD pair has already set at the level of 0.6735. Moreover, double top has been also placed at the same price of 0.6735. Consequently, the descending movement will probably be lower than the 0.6735/0.6730 level with the targets at 0.6603 and 0.6467 in order to test the double bottom on the H4 chart. On the contrary, the support has been already set at 0.6467. Furthermore, it should be noted that it will be very profitable to buy above this level for retesting this price in a short period. Therefore, buy deals are recommended above the 0.6467 level with targets at 0.6633 (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement) and 0.6660 to reach the minor resistance. Even so, you have to set your stop loss. The best location for placing it should be at the 0.6467 level which represents the double bottom on the H4 charts.
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Global macro overview for 12/08/2015

Global macro overview for 12/08/2015:

The Greek government has agreed for the new rescue program from its international creditors; it has saved the Greece from financial ruin. According to the finance ministry, the pact will be worth 85 billion euros in fresh loans during the next three years. Moreover, the Greek bank will be recapitulated with the sum of 10 billion euro by the end of 2015. The deal now must be signed by Greece's parliament and the euro zone's finance ministers later this wee, in order to ensure Athens has enough cash to meet the ECB payment on August 20.

The EUR/USD pair is responding very positively to the news and currently is trading at the level of 1.1144 after breaking the golden trendline and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1129.

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Global macro overview for 12/08/2015

Global macro overview for 12/08/2015:

WTI crude oil prices hit a fresh 5-year low yesterday after the OPEC announced that production output reached a new three-year high in July. OPEC raised its forecast for non-OPEC supply this year by almost 90,000 barrels per day after claiming it raised its output by 100,700 bpd to 31.5 million in July. The current output is at the highest level since 2012 and further declines in crude oil prices might have return concerns about global growth and deflation risks.

Crude oil futures slid 4.13% to trade at the $42.67 low and closed yesterday at the level of $43.06. The most important support is at the level of $41.98.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 12, 2015

General overview for 12/08/2015 10:40 CET

The current price action inside the neutral zone looks like a typical market behavior during the topping process. This scenario is currently being supported by the Elliott wave count that indicates a possible top for the wave 1 blue. Nevertheless, the further clues will come only if the market breakout below the intraday support at the level of 1.2991 takes place. The golden trendline is currently the key dynamic resistance and only a breakout higher would invalidate the topping scenario.

Support/Resistance:

1.3213 - Intraday Resistance

1.3107 - WR1

1.3130 - Weekly Pivot

1.3046 - WS1

1.2991 - Intraday Support

1.2963 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should refrain from trading until a clear pattern appears or the corrective cycle is completed. A possible top is in place.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 12, 2015

General overview for 12/08/2015 10:00 CET

After breaking yesterday's high of the wave c purple at the level of 137.46, the main count was invalidated and the bullish impulsive count is currently the correct one. The wave progression to the upside looks completed and the whole (a)(b)(c) blue corrective cycle might be completed as well. However, there is no top confirmation from the price action and it can come only with intraday support breakout (at the level of 137.78), weekly pivot resistance breakout (at the level of 137.74), and overbalance level breakout (at the level of 137.50). Any failure to break out below this levels means that new highs should be seen soon.

Support/Resistance:

138.94 - WR3

138.69 - Intraday Resistance

138.12 - Longer TF Resistance

137.78 - Intraday Support

137.74 - WR2

137.50 - Overbalance Level

Trading recommendations:

Swingtraders and daytraders should note that the bigger corrective cycle might have been completed and any breakout below the level of 137.50 might be considered as bearish. Longer-term buy orders should be now closed or set for a trailing stop.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 12, 2015

The pair managed to hold the 20Dsma and to post gains for five days in a row. The pair was rejected exactly from 50Dsma at yesterday's session.

IMPACT OF EURO: The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany declines again in August 2015. The index fell by 4.7 points compared to the previous month. The index is August come in at 25.0 points (a long-term average is 24.9 points).

The pair closed and is trading below 20Wsma which seems at 1.1050. The weekly support is found at 1.0840 and 1.0800. Weekly resistance is seen at 1.1050.

The pair has been forming higher highs and higher lows on the h1 chart. But on the four-hour chart, the pair has been facing strong resistance on the descending trend line.

Intraday: Intraday support is at 1.1040, 1.1000, and 1.0960. Resistance seems at 1.1090 and 1.1130. The pair is trading at 1.1060 at today's Asian session. The pair is likely to make a high between 1.1120 or 1.1150. Bulls must close above 1.1130 to regain a fresh momentum. Until a close above 1.1130, sell on spikes.

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Technical analysis of EUR/AUD for August 12, 2015

The China's currency devaluation directly affects the AUD & NZD. The risk appetite factor is one more driving force.

Today the Westpac consumer confidence and wage price index coincides with the Asian session. Consumer confidence has posted a surprisingly strong rise in August.

The Westpac Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment jumped to 99.5 in the first full week of August from 92.2 in July.

Technical view: After the release of Australia's reports, the cross is edging higher to retest the earlier high. At present at the Asian session, the cross made a high at 1.5290. The earlier high seems at 1.5337 which is a December 17, 2014 high. The cross has been forming lower highs and lower lows from January 2014 highs. If the cross can close above 1.5337 on a weekly basis, the first higher high is likely to be achieved. In this case, bulls aim at 1.5700, the previous high seems at 1.5831 which was hit in 2014.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 12, 2015

The cross has been consolidating at higher levels, facing strong rejection from the supply zone. The cross approached the lower end of the supply zone exists at 195.24 The supply zone existed between 195.25, which is an August 06 high, and 195.87 which is a June 24 high.

Intraday resistance seems at 195.05, 195.25, and 195.60, a high has just been hit at 195.02. Support is seen at 194.50, 194.00, and 193.70.

On the hourly and four hour-chart, the oscillators are indicating negative divergence. During the present uptrend, the cross is unlikely to breach the earlier high. We expect the cross to make a top again between 195.10 and 195.60.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 12, 2015

Minutes of the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting from July 14-15, 2015 is due today which will coincide with the Asian session. Many members expect Japan's inflation dynamic is set to improve. Besides, the minutes read that the Bank of Japan will continue to pursue the loose monetary policy until an inflation rate remains steady at 2%.

According to the minutes, the Bank of Japan will assess risks and adjust policies when necessary.

BoJ members share the view that CPI may rise, consistent with the April outlook. One member said, CPI will approach the target level of 2% by the end of 2016 fiscal year. However, few members think that a monetary easing effect of lower real interest rates is waning. Three members expressed a cautious view on the inflation outlook. One official said he is uncertain whether revenue growth will increase spending.

The cross managed to close and traded above all the moving averages in the different time intervals. The 20Wsma is set at 135.00. The cross has been forming a head and shoulder pattern, a neckline is seen at 133.09. The trend changing level is found at 133.00 rounded, buyers' stop loss might be here.

On the higher side, multiple resistance seems at 141.00.

On the hourly and four-hour chart the oscillators are indicating overbought levels. Intraday resistance seems at 138.40,138.70, and 139.40. At present, a high has been reached at 138.36. Support is set at 137.90, 137.50, and 137.20. We advised fresh buying only above 138.40.

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Technical analysis of Gold for August 12, 2015

After the yuan devaluation, the USD spiked suddenly at yesterday's session. But the reality comes to the limelight in the form of a currency war and delay in the US interest rates hike. The metal extended the rally towards the crucial resistance level of $1,120.00 but was rejected.

Bank of Montreal analyst Jessica Fung said that after the devaluation of the Chinese yuan, gold and silver may get some support due to safe-haven investors' demand. Gold is expected to trade sideways, rather more down. If the second half of this year China's economic data shows stronger economic growth, "safe haven" effect may dissipate. Gold and silver prices are likely to rise driven by the interest rates hike by the Federal Reserve.

The world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust holdings held steady compared to the previous day at the same level of 667.69 tons.

The weekly support is found at $1,085.00, $1,077.00, and $1,073.00. A weekly close below $1,085.00 opens way to $1,068.00 initially, later the metal is likely to grow towards $1,045.00, and $1,005.00. On the monthly chart, strong support zone is seen between $1,045.00 and $1,032.00. The metal fell below a 14-year ascending trend line on the monthly chart.

The 20Dsma is seen at $1,099.00. Bulls must close above $1,110.00 to retain the new momentum. The parallel resistance seems at $1,120.00, $1,122.00, and $1,128.00.

The intraday momentum oscillators are indicating overbought levels. The upmove was capped at yesterday's session.

Support is set at $1,102.00, $1,098.00, and $1,092.00. Resistance seems at $1,110.00, $1,115.00, and $1,120.00.

The trend suggests buying on dips with sl $1,091.00, intraday positional sl $1,085.00.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 12, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German 10-y Bond Auction, Industrial Production m/m, and Italian Trade Balance. The US will release the economic data too such as the Federal Budget Balance, 10-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, and JOLTS Job Openings. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1095.

Strong Resistance:1.1089.

Original Resistance: 1.1078.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1067.

Target Inner Area: 1.1042.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1017.

Original Support: 1.1006.

Strong Support: 1.0995.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0989.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 12, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the Tertiary Industry Activity m/m, Revised Industrial Production m/m, PPI y/y, and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. The US will also publish some economic reports such as Federal Budget Balance, 10-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, and JOLTS Job Openings. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 125.81.

Resistance. 2: 125.56.

Resistance. 1: 125.32.

Support. 1: 125.02.

Support. 2: 124.78.

Support. 3: 124.53.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 12 - 2015

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Technical summary:

We have seen a nice thrust out of the triangle and the first upside target at 1.6990 is already taken out. Now the focus is on the 1.7277 target. Short-term minor support at 1.6943 will be able to protect the downside for the next rally higher to strong resistance at 1.7277 form where a larger correction should be expected.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6827 and we will move our stop higher to the break-even point. As wave (v) is already well under way, one intraday long position should be opened. So buy near 1.6943 with stop loss at 1.6900 and take profit near 1.7277.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 12 - 2015

2015-08-12-EURJPY-4H.png

Technical summary:

With a clear break above 137.35 and 137.80, the triangle count was invalidated. The much more bullish count is again back in the limelight. The break above 137.80 calls for a new rally higher towards 142.05 on the way higher to 144.03.

Support is now found at 137.80 and again at the inverse S/H/S neckline near 137.38.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 137.45 was hit. We will look for a buying opportunity at 137.45.

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Technical analysis of Gold for August 12, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold rose through the $1,120.00 levels yesterday, just above its fibonacci 0.382 resistance, of the drop between $1,167.00 and $1,070.00 levels. Please also note that the metal is stalling at an immediate resistance line at the moment, indicating a potential pullback/reversal ahead. It is hence recommended to remain flat for now and watch out for a possible reaction around $1,095.00 levels. It is also possible that a pullback rally might be over around $1,120.00 levels and the metal could be heading towards fresh lows. Immediate support is seen at $1,095.00 levels, followed by $1,075.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,030.00/32 levels, followed by $1,067.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for August 12, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is stalling at the fibonacci 0.618 resistance levels (of the drop between $15.90 to $14.40 levels respectively), around the $15.30/40 levels as seen here. Also note that the metal is testing the immediate resistance line as well. It is recommended to stay flat for now and watch out for a drop towards $14.90/$15.00 levels before entering again. Immediate support is seen at $15.10 levels, followed by $14.90, $14.40/50 and lower, while resistance is seen at $15.90/$16.00 levels, followed by $16.30/40 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 12, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is seen to be trading above 138.15 levels for now, having broken above the cone consolidation zone earlier. Please note that the pair is at a past resistance zone at the moment, and a corrective drop could be expected before the next bull leg resumes. It is hence recommended to book profits on long positions taken earlier and remain flat for now. Immediate support is seen at 136.50 levels, followed by 135.50, 135.00, 134.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 139.00 levels, followed by 140.00, 141.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Book profits on long positions and remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for August 12, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is seen to be trading around 1.5397 levels after printing highs at 1.5412/15, against our expectations for a short correction. The pair is setting up to extend its uptrend from current levels, and seems that bulls shall remain in control till prices stay broadly above 1.5150 levels for now. It is hence recommended to buy on dips around 1.5250 levels from here on. Immediate support is seen at 1.5250 levels, followed by 1.5150, 1.5050, 1.4950 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.5420 levels and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Look to buy on dips towards 1.5250 levels.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 12, 2015

EUR/USD: There is now an unambiguous bullish signal on this pair, since positive news from the Eurozone has fuelled the pair. Today or tomorrow, it is possible for bulls to attain the resistance lines at 1.1100 and 1.1150. There are support lines at 1.0950 and 1.0900, which should obstruct bearish attempts along the way.

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USD/CHF: It is intriguing to see that both USD/CHF and EUR/USD are trying to go upwards at the same time. According to their nature, the two pairs ought to go in opposite directions. The resistance level at 0.9900 is now being tested. Unless the USD loses stamina, the resistance level would be breached to the upside.

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GBP/USD: Although the cable moved upwards strongly before the current sideways movement, the upwards attempt has not rendered the recent bearish outlook completely invalid. The distribution territory at 1.5600 is being tested repeatedly. In case it is breached to the upside, the price could go towards another distribution territory at 1.5650. Should this happen, it would lead to a new bullish signal.

3.png

USD/JPY: Interestingly, the USD/JPY pair is also moving upwards, but not as strongly as the EUR/JPY pair. The price has moved above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. The demand level at 125.00 has already been overcome, the next target for bulls is the supply level at 125.50.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair has moved upwards by over 200 pips this week. The price is currently trading above the demand zone at 138.00, targeting the supply zone at 139.00. There is now a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. Unless the yen gains a significant amount of stamina, the cross would continue moving upwards.

5.png

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 12, 2015

USDX continues to make bearish moves below the resistance level of 97.57, as we can see it on the daily chart. That's why we're waiting for another push lower towards the support zone of 96.57. The overall structure is still bullish and 200 SMA is slightly pointing upward. However, be cautious with a possible breakout of that support.

USDXDaily.png

On H1 chart, USDX has been trading below the 200 SMA and the support zone of 97.12 continues to be a very big obstacle for bears. However, a breakout could happen there if the Index is capable of building another bearish pattern. On the other hand, USDX can make a rebound at current levels, but bear in mind the latest support found at the session on July 31.

USDXH1.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 97.57 / 98.29

Daily chart's support levels: 96.57 / 95.50

H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.65 / 98.09

H1 chart's support levels: 97.12 / 96.88

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.65, take profit is at 98.09, and stop loss is at 97.22.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 12, 2015

On the daily chart, GBP/USD regained positions above the 200 SMA and it's pointing again towards the resistance level of 1.5640. We should be aware of a possible breakout there, which could unleash a bullish force and the pair will rise towards the resistance zone of 1.5761. MACD indicator is entering the neutral territory, an indicator of the current uncertainty of the Cable.

GBPUSDDaily.png

GBP/USD is forming a higher high pattern above the 200 SMA on H1 chart. The current resistance level is set at 1.5587 which could be a big obstacle for bulls in the near term. If a breakout happens over there, the pair could rise until the 1.5632 level. However, there is still a high risk of a pullback below the moving average mentioned above.

GBPUSDH1.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5640 / 1.5761

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5450

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5587 / 1.5632

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5545 / 1.5489

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5587, take profit is at 1.5632, and stop loss is at 1.5541.

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USDX technical analysis for August 12, 2015

The Dollar index is testing the important short-term support level of 97. The Dollar index has made a bearish reversal towards trend line support but bulls continue to hold the upper hands. As long as price is above 97, bulls should feel safer.

usdx.jpg

Red line - resistance

Green line - support

The Dollar index has pulled back towards 97 area as expected and tested the Ichimoku cloud and the green trend line. Trend remains bullish but with some reversal signs. Bulls will be in danger if we see a daily close below 97. The double top at 98.20 is not a good sign for the next couple of weeks.

usdxd.jpg

Red line - resistance

Green line - support

The weekly chart continues to support the bearish scenario of a pullback at least towards 95 where the lower triangle boundary is found. It is important to watch closely in case the triangle is broken.

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Gold technical analysis for August 12, 2015

Gold price has held above support after back testing the Ichimoku cloud and bulls have managed to break above the long-term downward sloping trend line resistance. Gold is most probably heading now towards $1,130-40 for a bigger bounce.

goldh4.jpg

Blue line - long-term resistance trend line

Green lines - broken triangle

Gold price has successfully back tested the Ichimoku cloud support and bounced higher towards new highs above the blue trend line resistance that is valid since the $1,210 level. Gold is in a short-term bullish trend targeting $1,130-40 area.

goldd.jpg

Blue line - trend line resistance

Gold price on the weekly chart confirms my thoughts expressed in my previous analysis that we should be waiting for a bigger upward bounce towards $1,130-40 at least. The $1,130-40 area is very important for the longer-term outlook for Gold price.

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