Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for September 11, 2017

EUR/USD non-volatile bullish trend is still intact and further bullish momentum is expected in the future. The eurozone's economy is currently in a recovery mode which is expected to have steady and consistent growth in the coming days. As ECB President Draghi hinted about Quantitative Easing at a smaller scale and tapering is also on the way, EUR is likely to gain much stronger in comparison to other currency pairs including US Dollar. Today, Italian Industrial Production report was published with better than expected print of 0.1% from the previous value of 1.1% which was revised upwards from -0.5%. The news did not help EUR to gain momentum against USD today even though there is no economic reports or events in the US. As of the current scenario, USD is currently expected to gain over EUR in the short term before launching up higher.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some bearish momentum after the rejection off the daily candle of Friday. Currently the price is heading for the dynamic level of 20 EMA or 1.1820-50 support area before bouncing up higher towards 1.2140 resistance level. The trend is still non-volatile which does indicate that there are good chances of price to head upward without much counter impulsive momentum along the way. As the price remains above the 1.1820-50 support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for September 11, 2017

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Technical outlook:

An extremely short time frame, 15 minutes, has been presented here for a short entry in EUR/USD. The pair rallied past 1.2070 levels marginally last week and print highs at 1.2092 levels before pulling back lower again. Now if you look at the short term wave count, EUR/USD has dropped 5 waves between 1.2092 and 1.1972 levels. This could probably be the beginning of a meaningful correction, that can drag prices lower towards 1.1640 levels at least. If the above wave count discussed is correct, EUR/USD could be unfolding into an expanded flat. A short entry can be initialized again on a pullback or counter trend rally towards 1.2040/50 levels going ahead. As depicted here, that would be wave 2 (a-b-c) into making, before wave 3 could begin lower. Please note that immediate resistance is seen through 1.2020/30 levels, while interim support is seen at 1.1970 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Please look to sell again around 1.2030/40 levels, stop above 1.2092, target at 1.1900, 1.1800 and lower.

GBPUSD chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

A 4H chart setup has been presented here for GBP/USD with a simple interpretation of waves, support-resistance, and fibonacci ratios. Looking into the waves first, the drop from 1.3270 through 1.2770 levels can be still considered as primary drop towards the larger trend. Furthermore, the counter trend rally towards 1.3220/30 levels, which has unfolded into 3 waves still looks corrective. Besides, note that prices are stalling at fibonacci 88.0% resistance of the entire previous drop and is also looking to produce an engulfing bearish candlestick pattern at this moment. A break below 1.3170 and subsequently below the counter trend line support would confirm that a major top has been formed in GBP/USD and that the pair should be looking aggressively lower from here.

Trading plan:

Please remain short again around current price of 1.3188, stop above 1.3270, target is lower.

Fundamental outlook:

There are no major fundamental events lined up for today.

Good luck!

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EUR/USD analysis for September 11, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1989 in a low volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found a broken pennant formation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I found intraday support at the price of 1.1995. There is also a hidden divergence on the moving average oscilator, which is another sign of strength. Watch for potential buying opportuntiies. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.2030, 1.2075 and 1.2090.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2025

R2: 1.2030

R3: 1.2040

Support levels:

S1: 1.2010

S2: 1.2000

S3: 1.1995

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for September 11, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upward. The price tested the level of 1.3222 in a high volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found a broken bullish pennant formation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. Another sign of strength is that price covered down gap from the opening this week. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The short-term trend is billish. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3250 and the price of 1.3300.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3200

R2: 1.3112

R3: 1.3225

Support levels:

S1: 1.3185

S2: 1.3170

S3: 1.3160

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 11, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested earlier in September.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

The current price levels of 0.7320-0.7350 can be watched for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 11, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, If bearish pullback persists below 1.1800 and 1.1700, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 can be watched for a valid BUY entry

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Bitcoin analysis for September 11, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) is trading lower at the level of $4,091 driven on the multiple monday reports have added to speculation that Chinese authorities are planning to ban bitcoin trading on domestic exchanges, with no plans to stop non-commercial, over-the-counter transactions. After Friday's swirling rumors about Chinese regulators reportedly drawing plans to shut down domestic bitcoin exchanges, the Wall Street Journal is now reporting that China's central bank is looking to ban Chinese platforms from providing virtual currency trading services. Citing "people familiar with the matter", the report claims that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) – China's central bank – is leading a draft of instructions to stop commercial bitcoin trading on domestic exchanges. Technical analysis confirms weaknes on Bitocin.

Trading recommendations:

The analysis from last weak i still valid and we got good progres so far. According to the 1H time frame, I found a broken rising wedge and hidden bearish divergence on MA oscilator in the background, which is sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunties. The downward targets are set at the price of $4,000 and $3,600.

Support/Resistance

$4,000 – Local support

$3,600 – Support (projected target)

$4,331 – Intraday resistance

$4,441 – Intraday resistance

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Global macro overview for 11/09/2017

Global macro overview for 11/09/2017:

Better than expected Canadian jobs data surprised market participants. Canadian employment increased 22k in August which was slightly better than expectations of around 19k for the month and following a gain of 11k in July. Full-time employment declined sharply by 88k for the month following a 35k increase the previous month while there was a strong gain in part-time employment of over 110k following a decline of 24k the previous month. Altogether over the year, full-time employment increased by 213k (1.5% year to date), while part-time jobs increased 4.6% over the year. The unemployment rate declined further to 6.2% from 6.3% the previous month which was the lowest rate since October 2008.

There might be some concerns surrounding the decline in full-time jobs, although this drop was concentrated among young workers and may be a seasonal factor (students going back to college). The Bank of Canada should be pleased with the data as the recent interest rate hike might soon start to have an impact on the cooling job market and inflation. So far the BoC remains confident that the interest rate hike was timed perfectly and it should not greatly affect the other sectors of the economy in a negative way. The future monetary policy will be determined by the development of the economy with close attention paid to the sensitivity of the economy to higher interest rates given elevated household debt. The Canadian housing market is booming now, but there are some areas that are causing concerns and giving some fresh signs of a possible bubble, like Vancouver or Toronto (event compared to US housing market in 2007).

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is trading in extremely oversold conditions, so a bounce towards the nearest technical resistance is expected to happen any time now. The key level to the upside is still the 61%Fibo at the level of 1.2342 and the supply zone between the levels of 1.2411 - 1.2440. As long as this area is not violated the long-term trend remains bearish. The nearest resistance is seen at the level of 1.2246.

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Euro and pound make use of the situation

Eurozone

The following week after the ECB meeting on Thursday, the euro was able to increase, despite the fact that ECB President Mario Draghi did his best to bring down the wave of purchases.

The decision for monetary policy changes is postponed and most likely will resume in October. Draghi mentioned thrice in his speech the appreciation for the euro, but avoided clear reasons for this growth and he referred this to only as one of the factors saying "uncertainty that requires further monitoring." On Friday, the euro continued to rise on the wave of rumors about the possible situation next year. In one scenario, QE can continue for 6 or 9 months with a decrease in purchases to 20 or 40 billion euros. Obviously, when this scenario is implemented, then the reduction in the volume of purchases will be smooth and the euro has a chance to resume its growth.

Conclusions from the ECB meeting can determine the following.

  • 1. The strong growth momentum of the euro increases the ECB's confidence regarding the potential economic growth. In 2017, the forecast for GDP will increase from 1.9% to 2.2%, and this is one of the reasons for the growth in demand for the European currency.
  • 2. When it comes to inflation, the prospects remain unclear with a slight revision downward for 2018 and 2019 and rather a technical one.

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In general for the euro, we can assume that the strengthening of the trend will continue. The ECB was unable to influence the investors' mood, and the idea about the need to curtail incentives against the background of economic growth remains dominant.

The second most important reason for the growth of euro is the continuous disappointment of investors in the US dollar. The completion of the interim agreement regarding the increase in national debt until December 15, reflects the fact that a long-term solution is not easy to find, and the next meeting will feature a confrontation in the power elite of the United States again. Rate forecasts virtually exclude another increase this year, and the upcoming rotation in the Fed leadership raise doubts that the previously announced target can be implemented.

Technically, the euro may go into correction due to a pronounced short-term overbought, but a decline below 1.16 is unlikely and will be used for new purchases.

United Kingdom

For the British pound, the week will be quite busy. On Tuesday, inflation data will be published. On Wednesday, the labor market and unemployment will be released, and the main event of the week will be held on Thursday, which is the regular meeting on monetary policy held by the Bank of England.

Players do not expect any changes since the meeting will not be accompanied by the publication of updated macroeconomic forecasts. The rate is likely to remain at 0.25%, and the number of votes is in favor of the current monetary policy and projected to be 7/2.

The NIESR Institute published a forecast for GDP growth, the estimate shows that the economic growth in the last three months was 0.4%, which is much better than the previous 0.2%, the growth is due to the development of the services sector and the strong growth in the manufacturing sector.

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NIESR, whose opinion is heard by the Bank of England in the development of monetary policy, recommends raising the rate by 0.25% in the first quarter of 2018, provided that the economy continues to grow. This is a bullish signal for the pound which could reduce the spread of yields to its advantage, amid adjustments on the Fed's plans. The pound would likely update the maximum reached in August and will try to reach 1.36 in the next month.

Oil and Ruble

The prices for Brent continue to hold above $53/bbl and did not pay attention to any bearish signals. One of the reasons is the growth in demand amid fears of a possible increase in US gasoline consumption due to the struggle with the consequences of hurricanes "Harvey" and "Irma". Price support has noticeably weakened the dollar.

The market awaits for news from the camp of OPEC. Saudi Arabia intends to reduce exports in October by 350 thousand barrels per day. Moreover, the agreement on limiting production can be extended after six months which is the next schedule of OPEC meeting, according to rumors. While the initiative is with bulls, oil can already test $ 55 / bbl this week.

The Ruble will hold the week near the highs reached during the evening, while strong movements are not expected. The market will wait for the rate decision of the Central Bank of Russia.

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Global macro overview for 11/09/2017

Global macro overview for 11/09/2017:

The main event of the week will be CPI Inflation data release from the US on Thursday. This is the last chance to reaffirm the Fed's hypothetical price weakness. The market expects a rebound from 1.7% in July to 1.8% and the disappointment here will turn into a conviction that next week the Fed will rule out a rate hike in December (although the start of the balance sheet normalization at the next FOMC meeting is not threatened). Resetting market expectations to a hike (now at 32% according to CME FedWatch Tool) will pull the USD down. In the coming days, we will also receive data on August retail sales and industrial production (on Friday). The sales should maintain solid growth rate from July with the greatest attention to so-called "control group", which enters the GDP calculation. Industrial production has recently been secondary, but the US Dollar will be more vulnerable to worse than expected readings. In conclusion, very interesting week for the US markets and many ongoing developments might get terminated, especially after the Hurricane Irma impact on US GDP will be estimated.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. After a bounce from the weekly support at the level of 107.30, the price is now moving higher towards the next technical resistance at the level of 109.41. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 108.12- 108.27, nevertheless as long as the zone between the levels of 110.61 - 111.04 is not clearly violated the bears remain in full control over this market.

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Bitcoin analysis for 11/09/2017:

Bitcoin analysis for 11/09/2017:

Despite the recent bad news for the new ICO in China, Hu Bing, a researcher at the Institute of Finance and Banking, a government-backed Chinese government, said in a conversation with state-run CCTV-13, that the government was forbidding the ICO's offering of coins only temporary. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Institute of Finance and Banking are affiliated with the State Council of the People's Republic of China, the main administrative body of the People's Republic of China. The Chinese Institute of Finance and its researchers are considered government institutions and state officials.

In his interview with Box Mining, Bing explained that the ICO suspension and ICO declaration as an illegal method of raising funds are only temporary until local regulators introduce the necessary regulatory and policy framework for both ICO investors and projects. More importantly, Bing emphasized that the Chinese cryptanalyst community must understand that the government did not forbid the ICO, instead held back, demonstrating the government's intention to resume the ICO in the near future. Bing also noted that the Chinese government and its financial institutions are currently considering the possibility of allowing the ICO to collect money in a controlled environment through a licensing program. If the government decides to legalize and regulate the ICO market, its licensing program will be similar to the BitLicense program at the New York Department of Financial Services (NYSDF), which requires companies to obtain licenses from the state to handle New York people.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H1 time frame. The price reversed from the gray rectangular zone as anticipated, but did not manage to make a new low. Currently, the market is trading just below the golden trend line and below the weekly pivot at the level of $4,296. A breakout below the level of $3,992 opens the road towards the key near - term technical support at the level of $3,600.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 11, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair is bullish – and there is a bullish outlook on the market this week. This is also true of EUR pairs, for they are expected to go upwards this (in most cases). Price would reach the resistance lines at 1.2050, 1.3000 and 1.3050 (which is the ultimate target for the week).

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair trended downward last week, went briefly below the support level at 0.9450 and then closed above it on Friday. Further bearish movement is anticipated this week, and price would test the support levels at 0.9450, 0.9400, and 0.9350. As long as EUR/USD is weak, a meaningful rally on USD/CHF cannot be expected.

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GBP/USD: This pair gained a minimum of 270 pips last week, rising in the beginning of the week and testing the distribution territory at 1.3200. That distribution territory has been tested a few times and it would eventually be breached to the upside, as price targets another distribution territories at 1.3250, 1.3300, and 1.3350.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair dropped about 250 pips last week, having dropped about 660 pips since July 11, 2017. There is a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which points to more southwards movement. However, the outlook on JPY pairs is bullish this week, which means that, while further southwards movement is possible, the market would reverse and rally before the end of the week.

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EUR/JPY: This currency trading instrument has become essentially neutral – for there was no directional movement in the market last week. This week, price is expected to go either above the supply zone at 131.00 (staying above it) or to go below the demand zone at 129.50, (staying below it). Except one of these conditions are met, the market cannot be said to be trending in the short term.

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Trading plan for 11/09/2017

Trading plan for 11/09/2017:

There is slight optimism on financial markets for the North Korean regime to refrain from ballistic testing during the anniversary of the foundation of the state. This translates into the outflow of capital from safe-heaven markets: increases in US debt yields, decrease in Gold prices, a clear appreciation of the US Dollar to Yen and Franc. USD/JPY is growing 0.5% and returned over the level of 108.00, breached on Friday. EUR/USD retreated to 1.20, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3175.

On Monday 11th of September, the event calendar is light in important news releases, but global investors might pay attention to Industrial Production data from Italy, German Bundesbank Monthly Report, and Housing Starts data from Canada. Fed decision makers can not speak publicly before September's FOMC meeting.

EUR/USD analysis for 11/09/2017:

Due to a lack of important news release, the market attention today will focus on North Korea and Hurricane Irma in Florida.

The financial markets took a breath of relief after the leaders of the North Korean regime have not decided on yet another ballistic launch to celebrate the anniversary of the founding of the People's Democratic Republic of Korea. Investors prepared for a show of strength, but instead, Kim Jong-Un served a lavish party to their scientists. Nevertheless, this is not the end of the geopolitical uncertanity yet. Today, the UN Security Council will vote on tightening sanctions against North Korea, which may be the result of Pyongyang's response. Moreover, the decision to abandon ballistic missions does not testify to the regime's conciliatory attitude, but is the evidence of its unpredictability. The fact that no ballistic test was conducted on Saturday does not mean that the tests will not be conducted on Tuesday.

Hurricane Irma hit the coast of Florida, but its path leads the western part of the peninsula - not as it was feared over Miami. Wind power is also weakening with every hour - today the disaster has been rated category 2 (yesterday 4, before the hit in Florida - 5). The wind blows at an average speed of over 150 km/h. Information on the extent of damage caused by the disaster will be coming gradually.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to violate the recent swing high at the level of 1.2069, but the price failed to move any higher so far. Currently, the market is testing the level of 1.2000 again after a visible bearish divergence between the price and momentum indicator is now in progress. The key support area is the navy trend line support around the level of 1.1950. The level of 1.1829 remains the key technical support.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil retreats from highs

After hitting the 78%Fibo at the level of $49.38 the price of Crude Oil reversed sharply lower towards the level of $47.22. No new high has been made and the golden trend line has been tested again from below. Due to the fact that the momentum indicator is still below the fifty level, the odds for another leg down are now high. The next technical support is seen at the level of $46.45.

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Market Snapshot: GBP/JPY at the key resistance

The price of the GBP/JPY pair has broken above the 38% Fibo at the level of 142.52 and currently is trading just under the key technical resistance below the level of 143.24. Any breakout higher would indicate a test of the 50%Fibo at the level of 143.52 or even a test of the technical resistance at the level of 144.00. No sign of any bearish price developments yet.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 11, 2017

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair fell from the level of 1.2091 to bottom at 1.1998 this morning. Today, the EUR/USD pair has faced strong support at the levels of 1.1988 and 1.1957. So, the strong support has been already faced at the levels of 1.1988 and 1.1957 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again and form a double bottom. Hence, the EUR/USD pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support area of 1.1988 and 1.1957; to form a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 1.1960 and 1.2050. Also, it should be noted major resistance is seen at 1.2059, while immediate resistance is found at 1.2033. Then, we may anticipate potential testing of 1.2033 to take place soon. Moreover, if the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.2033, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 1.2033. A breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to 1.2059. Buy orders are recommended above the area of 1.1988 with the first target at the level of 1.2033; and continue towards 1.2059. On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed below the major support of 1.1957.
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Trading plan 11 - 15/09/2017

Trading plan 11 - 15/09/2017

The general picture. EURUSD. A week without big news, a range.

The opening of the week passed calmly. At the weekend, North Korea and the United States was made to worry. Many expected a new launch of a long-range missile from North Korea since September 9 is the anniversary of the formation of the DPRK. And in the event of such a launch, the missiles were expecting a tough reaction from the US up to a military strike. That did not happen.

The United States submitted to the UN Security Council a resolution with new sanctions against North Korea. A vote is expected on Monday, September 11. The main thing in sanctions is a ban on the supply of petroleum products to North Korea. They do not have their own oil.

China and Russia were negative about the new sanctions.

Sev. Korea already threatens the US, "damage and suffering" in the case of new sanctions. (Let me remind you that the new sanctions and the reaction to testing the great strength of the hydrogen bomb a week ago by North Korea, gross violation of the UN requirements).

Thus, on this front, serious events are possible.

The new powerful hurricane "Irma" weakened, after causing serious damage to Florida, the US and this negative have decreased.

In the foreign exchange market: At the end of last week, the ECB did not change the monetary policy, and ECB officials did not begin to voice their plans to curtail the QE program.

EUR/USD: What is important here? Market reaction.

We saw a sluggish attempt to show new highs. The maximum of the end of August for EUR/USD 1.2070 was breached, but the strength of the growth was enough only to 1.2090. And the current price for Monday morning is 1.1995.

In addition: There are no important news in the week.

Growth was exhausted, at least for awhile. The range is 1.1800 - 1.2100.

There is a new attempt to reach the highs, but from 1.2080 and higher you can try selling (stop at no more than 45 pp).

In the case of growth to the highs, an interesting level is formed down for sale for a breakthrough.

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BITCOIN Analysis for September 8, 2017

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BITCOIN Analysis for September 8, 2017

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for September 11, 2017

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair set above strong support at the level of 1.3079, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected for four times confirming uptrend veracity. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 1.3079 because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend from the area between 1.3079 and 1.3350. The GBP/USD pair is trading in a bullish trend from the last support line of 1.3079 towards the first resistance level at 1.3210 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.3210 and further to the level of 1.3268. The level of 1.3268 will act as second resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 1.3350. At the same time, if a breakout happens at the support level of 1.3079, then this scenario may be invalidated. But in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario.
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for support at 1.6407 to be able to protect the downside for a continuation higher towards 1.6969. Ideally minor support at 1.6485 6 will be able to protect the downside for the next break above 1.6690 confirming more upside towards 1.6969. But only an unexpected break below 1.6407 will delay the expected rally higher.

R3: 1.6969

R2: 1.6758

R1: 1.6690

Pivot: 1.6600

S1: 1.6485

S2: 1.6407

S3: 1.6315

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6611 with stop placed at 1.6400. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6485 or upon a break above 1.6625 and use the same stop at 1.6400

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 11, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for more upside pressure towards 134.80 and then the ideal wave (D) target at 137.36. Once wave (D) is complete and zig-zag decline will be expected in wave (E), which will complete the huge triangle consolidation that has developed since July 2008.

Short-term, we are looking for a break above minor resistance at 131.10 which confirms more upside towards 134.80 and above. Only a break below 129.35 will delay the expected rally higher.

R3: 131.71

R2: 131.10

R1: 130.67

Pivot: 130.40

S1: 130.13

S2: 129.95

S3: 129.43

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 130.10 with stop placed at 129.25. Take profit is placed at 137.15.

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Technical analysis of USDX for September 11, 2017

The Dollar index started a bounce on Friday. This is a short-term bounce although we should soon expect a strong rally in the Dollar as the weekly chart is oversold, diverging and a strong bounce is hugely justified and expected. Dollar bears should be VERY cautious.

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The Dollar index is making lower lows and lower highs. Trend remains bearish although there are some signs in the short-term for a possible bigger reversal. Key resistance level to watch out for is at 91.90 and most importantly at 92.50. Support is at 91 and next at 90.20.

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Black lines - expanded triangle pattern

The downward move in the Dollar index is overextended, oversold, diverging on a weekly basis. A strong bounce is justified. We might see below 91 first and touch the lower triangle side, but overall Dollar bears need to be very cautious. A dollar bounce is expected soon....and it will be very strong.

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Technical analysis of gold for September 11, 2017

Gold price opened with a gap down today. Trend remains bullish. Price can find support at $1,330-$1,340 area. Gold price is expected to continue its bullish trend higher.

Black lines - bullish channel

Gold price has reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement support. We could see price move a bit lower towards the lower channel boundary or the Ichimoku cloud support at $1,330, This would be a buying opportunity. I remain bullish and expect Gold price to reverse to the upside soon.

On a daily basis, Gold price is making higher highs and higher lows. Support is at $1.330-$1,300 area. Trend is bullish in ichimoku cloud terms as well. The oscillators are turning downwards from overbought levels but we have no divergence. This implies that price should make new highs after the pullback is over.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy

Price has dropped perfectly to our profit target as expected. We prepare to buy above major support at 129.34 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, Fibonacci retracement) for a push up to at least 130.66 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong support above 1.45% and we expect a bounce above this level soon.

Buy above 129.34. Stop loss at 128.44. Take profit at 130.66.

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NZD/USD approaching major support, prepare to buy

Price is approaching major support at 0.7238 (multiple Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support, Fibonacci extension) where we expect a strong bounce from to push price all the way up to 0.7335 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) once again.

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong support above 3.64% and we expect a bounce above that level once it reaches there.

Buy above 0.7238. Stop loss at 0.7201. Take profit at 0.7335.

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AUD/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy once again

Price has bounced up perfectly to our profit target from last week. Today we prepare to buy above major support at 86.55 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support, Fibonacci extension) for a bounce up to at least 87.78 resistance (price gap, horizontal resistance).

RSI (34) is seeing ascending support holding up our bullish momentum really well.

Buy above 86.55. Stop loss at 86.11. Take profit at 87.78.

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EUR/USD forming a nice reversal signal, prepare to sell

Price is forming a really nice reversal pattern. We prepare to sell below 1.2069 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, bearish divergence) for a push down all the way to 1.1956 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 94% and is also seeing bearish divergence, signalling that a reversal is impending.

Sell below 1.2069. Stop loss at 1.2111. Take profit at 1.1956.

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USD/CHF profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy

Price has dropped absolutely perfectly to our profit target. We prepare to buy above major support at 0.9431 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, bullish price action) for a push up to at least 0.9528 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major support above 3.46% and we expect a corresponding bounce above that level similar to the one we're expecting on price.

Buy above 0.9431. Stop loss at 0.9398. Take profit at 0.9528.

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GBP/USD approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

Price is approaching major resistance at 1.3265 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect a strong reaction from this level to push price down to at least 1.3074 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance at 93% and we expect a corresponding drop from this level.

Sell below 1.3265. Stop loss at 1.3324. Take profit at 1.3074.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 11, 2017

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Italian Industrial Production m/m. Today, the US will not release any economic reports. So amid a thin economic calendar, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2074.

Strong Resistance:1.2067.

Original Resistance: 1.2055.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2043.

Target Inner Area: 1.2015.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1987.

Original Support: 1.1975.

Strong Support: 1.1963.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1956.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sept 11, 2017

In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y, Tertiary Industry Activity m/m, M2 Money Stock y/y, and Core Machinery Orders m/m. However, the US will not release any Economic Data. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 109.02.

Resistance 2: 108.81.

Resistance 1: 108.60.

Support 1: 108.33.

Support 2: 108.11.

Support 3: 107.90.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for September 11, 2017

Greenback's weakness is still the main driver in the currencies' baskets, as the index is doing a breakout below August 29th lows and it looks like we can see a downside continuation towards the 90.30 level, where bulls could attempt a recovery to correct the recent declines. The 200 SMA on H1 chart is still pointing to the downside and recoveries' attempts should be limited by such indicator.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04

H1 chart's support levels: 91.67 / 90.30

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 91.67, take profit is at 90.30 and stop loss is at 93.04.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 11, 2017

The pair is looking forward to consolidating gains as the bulls continue to reunite momentum in order to post new highs across the board. Resistance is being challenged at the 1.3213 level, at which a breakout should open the doors to test the 1.3253 level. To the downside, the nearest support is placed around 1.3113. MACD indicator is on the negative territory, favoring to pullbacks in the near term.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3213 / 1.3253

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3113 / 1.3016

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3213, take profit is at 1.3253 and stop loss is at 1.3173.

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Investors continue the outflow from the dollar

On Friday, the US Congress passed a law on the temporary increase of the US public debt ceiling until December 8 and on the provision of $15.25 billion to remove the consequences of Hurricane Harvey. The decision, which was made possible by Trump's approval and the leadership of the Democratic Party, was not given to Congress easily, because the agreement was too short, adopted in an emergency, and moreover, Trump's government succeeded in removing the promise to cut government spending from the final wording.

Meanwhile, the situation with budget revenues continues to deteriorate. The US Committee on the Budget of the Congress published another update, which noted that in the 11 months of the 2017 financial year, the deficit amounted to 675 billion dollars, which is 56 billion higher than last year, and a negative trend persists. Despite the fact that budget revenues are higher than a year ago, expenditures increase at a much higher rate, and the absence of a plan to cut spending in the state debt law will contribute to the growth of the budget deficit.

The pace of business lending growth remains low. The positive momentum from the mining sector is beginning to slow down, the cost of building non-residential premises shows negative dynamics, the growth rates of sales of residential premises are also slowing down. Regional business activity indices after a period of growth in the second half of 2016 also show a clear downward trend.

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The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, said on Friday that he expects further interest rate increases, but he does not know exactly when the next raise will be. Dudley's speech was expected by the market with increased attention, since after the clearly dovish speeches of several cabinet members at the beginning of the week and the news about the voluntary resignation from the post of Deputy Chairman of the Federal Reserve Stanley Fisher, investors were waiting for at least some positive information. Dudley, however, preferred vague comments, saying that the increase in rates will depend on how the situation in the economy will develop. Dudley also said that inflation is well below the target level of 2%, so soft financial conditions should not cause concern.

Investors are prepared to the face the fact that the Fed will not be able to implement its plan to normalize monetary policy, given that there are no conditions for another rate increase this year. Moreover, for the first time since June 2016, the probability of a rate increase, according to CME, is below 50%. This result indicates the complete disappointment of investors in the current economic course.

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The next extended meeting of the FOMC is in 10 days. Markets are almost certain that the Fed will announce the beginning of a phased reduction of the balance sheet, but the strategy of justifying such a step will be of most interest. The reduction of the balance means not only reducing assets on the account of the Fed, but also a cut in liabilities. To date, the balance sheet structure contains 4.53 trillion Federal Reserve securities, of which 1.57 trillion is the currency in circulation, and 2.37 trillion are surplus reserves of commercial banks on the Fed's correspondent accounts. Obviously, the reduction in the balance sheet should be accompanied by the repayment of obligations, and therefore investors fairly expect changes in the policy of charging interest on excess reserves.

In other words, commercial banks should start withdrawing their funds from the accounts of the Fed because of a decline in yield. In order for this process to be regulated, new tools for investing in the United States are needed. If inflation continues to decline, the spread of yields between US securities and, for example, Europe, will also tend to decline, which further refocuses capital flows in favor of European assets.

Thus, for the dollar, the situation continues to be negative. Investors do not expect it to turn positive and do not see any reason to change their view: the dollar outflow will continue. On Monday, the tendency toward a decline in the dollar can undergo development against the background of the absence of any positive macroeconomic factors.

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