EUR / USD: plan for the European session on October 17. Eurozone inflation data can shake the market

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Euro buyers once again need to return and consolidate above the resistance level of 1.1569, just above which the moving averages restrict growth. Only a breakthrough of 1.1569 after the release of a good report on the consumer price index in the eurozone will allow us to expect a re-growth of EUR / USD with an update of the highs around 1.1605 and reaching a maximum of 1.1648, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a decline in the euro under the support level of 1.1534, it is best to return to long positions to rebound from a minimum of 1.1490. The formation of a false breakdown at 1.1534 in the morning will also be a good signal to buy euros.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Sellers will try to return to the support level of 1.1534, which will be a signal to sell the euro in order to update the area of 1.1490, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of EUR / USD growth in the first half of the day after the release of data on inflation in the eurozone, short positions can be returned after an unsuccessful fixation and the formation of a false breakdown at the resistance level of 1.1569 or rebound from a maximum around 1.1605.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade moved under the 30 and 50-day average, which gives a slight advantage to euro sellers. In general, the situation is developing in favor of buyers of the American dollar.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is very low. A break of the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1545 will be a direct signal to open short positions in euros. The average border is at the same level as the average sliding, which is a very strong resistance.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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BITCOIN Analysis for October 17, 2018

After the recent breakout above $6,500 area with a strong impulsive bullish pressure, the price has been quite indecisive and volatile in Bitcoin. The price having no active Bullish Divergence phase in the process is expected to correct itself more while having a bullish bias to push the price upward in the coming days. The price is currently being held by the Kumo cloud resistance while being supported by the horizontal level at $6,500 area. Moreover, other dynamic levels such as 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line is currently flat and do not provide any indication for further decisions. As the price remains above $6,000-6,500 area, though certain corrections may be observed but the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 6,000, 6,500

RESISTANCE: 7,500, 8,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD on October 17. Bullish divergence allows growth to be expected.

4h

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The bearish divergence of the MACD indicator in conjunction with the rebound from the correction level of 38.2% - 1.1620 worked in favor of the US currency. The currency pair EUR / USD completed the fall to the correctional level of 50.0% - 1.1558. On October 17, a new bullish divergence is brewing near the CCI indicator. It allows you to expect a turn in favor of the euro currency. Hanging quotes from the Fibo level of 50.0% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of the pair's growth. Fixing the rate under the correction level of 50.0% will increase the likelihood of a further fall towards the next Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.1497.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair quotes continue to trade above the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Thus, the process of growth in the direction of the correctional level is possible at 76.4% - 1.1789. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of the US currency and resuming the fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be opened with the target of 1.1620 and a Stop Loss order under the Fibo level of 50.0% if the pair bounces the correction level of 1.1558, especially in the bovine divergence.

The EUR / USD currency pair can be sold with the target of 1.1497 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 50.0% if the pair closes below the 1.1558 correction level and hold them until a bullish divergence is formed.

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Analysis of the divergence of GBP / USD on October 17. The bearish divergence may contribute to the fall to 1.3067

4h

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The GBP / USD currency pair reversed in favor of the US currency after the formation of the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator. As a result, the process of falling quotations can be continued in the direction of the correctional level of 23.6% - 1.3067 on the 4-hour chart. Rebounding the pair from the Fibo level of 23.6% will allow traders to count on a turn in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% - 1.3316. Fixing the course of the pair below the Fibo level of 23.6% will increase the chances of continuing falling towards the next correctional level of 0.0% - 1.2662.

The Fibo grid was built according to extremums of April 17, 2018, and August 15, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the currency pair reversed in favor of the American currency and consolidation the below the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.3208, as well as falling to the correction level of 61.8% - 1.3153. Rebounding quotes from the Fibo level of 61.8% will make it possible to count on a reversal in favor of the British currency and a return to the correction level of 76.4%. The ripening divergences on October 17th are not observed in any indicator. Fixing quotes below the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 50.0% - 1.3110.

The Fibo grid was built according to extremums of September 20, 2018, and October 4, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.3208 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 61.8% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.3153 (hourly chart).

The currency pair GBP / USD will be sold with targets at 1.3110 and 1.3065 and a Stop Loss order above 61.8% if the pair closes below the Fibo level of 1.3153 (hourly chart).

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Correction in the markets may continue

Published on Tuesday, economic statistics from the United States provided significant support to US stock indexes, which caused a new wave of optimism and talk that the recent decline was not even a correction, but only a slight decrease against the background of a small fright caused by concerns about the prospects for the global economy.

According to the presented data, the volume of industrial production in September in the USA increased by 0.3% against the forecast of an increase of 0.2% and more noticeable growth in August by 0.4%. The value of open vacancies on the labor market also turned out to be positive, which reached a maximum of 7.136 million in August against 7.077 million in July and a predicted value of 6.945 million.

On this wave, as well as on the statement of, the new head of the Federal Reserve of San Francisco, that the American economy "is not cooled and not overheated" and that "it makes sense to gradually raise interest rates", the local stock market received considerable support, and major stock indexes added more than 2.0%. As for the dynamics of the US dollar, it traded in different directions, but in general, remained to the basket of major currencies in a small plus.

Estimating the general alignment of forces and factors influencing the mood of investors in the market, we believe that the overall dollar sideways tendency towards major currencies will continue. Local support can only get the British pound, and then only if the next round of endless negotiations between the EU and the UK to exit the last of the union ends in real success. The single currency can also grow on this wave.

In general, assessing the overall picture in the markets, we would not be so optimistic, and we believe that the US stock market will continue to adjust, as well as crude oil prices, and the US dollar to consolidate against major currencies. The main reason remains the desire of the Fed to continue raising interest rates, as well as the factor of tension between China and the United States.

Today, we should pay attention to the publication of the minutes of the last Fed meeting on monetary policy. If it reflects the steady striving of the regulator to further raise interest rates, this can support the dollar against major currencies.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / USD is trading below the level of 1.1565. In general, remaining in the "side", the pair is likely to correct down to 1.1500 if the data on consumer inflation in the eurozone turns out to be weaker than the forecast, and the Fed's protocol confirms the bank's firmness to normalize monetary policy.

The currency pair USD / JPY is trading above the level of 112.20 and above the support line of the short-term uptrend. If it keeps above this mark, there is a probability of a local growth to 112.90.

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Trading Plan 10/17/2018

Trading Plan 10/17/2018

Markets await EU Brexit summit.

Today, there should be a summit of heads of EU countries under a treaty with Britain. On the terms of trade after Britain's exit from the EU.

European currencies are ready to play decisions. The latest rumors about the preparation of agreements are not encouraging. The technical picture of the euro and the pound at the same time indicates the possibility of a positive conclusion of the summit.

Pound: We are ready to buy at the breakthrough of 1.326.

Alternative: Sell when you break down at 1.292.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on October 17

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we are following the ascending structure of October 9 and a pronounced movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1628. For the pound / dollar currency pair, we expect a resumption of the uptrend after the breakdown of 1.3211. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price is close to the abolition of the downward structure of October 9, for which a break of 0.9918 is necessary. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the price is in correction and forms potential for the top, the level of 112.72 is the key support. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price is in correction and forms the potential for the top of October 15. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of October 15.

Forecast for October 17:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1699, 1.1658, 1.1628, 1.1612, 1.1585, 1.1550, 1.1518 and 1.1478. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure of October 9. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1585. In this case, the goal is 1.1612, and consolidation is in the range of 1.1612 - 1.1628. The passage of the level of 1.1628 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 1.1658. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.1699, after reaching which we expect a departure to a correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1550 - 1.1518, hence we expect the key upward reversal. The breakdown of the level of 1.1518 will have to develop the downward structure. In this case, the goal is 1.1478.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1585 Take profit: 1.1610

Buy 1.1629 Take profit: 1.1656

Sell: 1.1548 Take profit: 1.1525

Sell: 1.1516 Take profit: 1.1480

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3350, 1.3292, 1.3263, 1.3211, 1.3133, 1.3081 and 1.3023. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of October 4. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3211. In this case, the target is 1.3263 and in the range of 1.3263 - 1.3292 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3350, upon reaching this level we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3133 - 1.3081 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of the downward movement. Here, the target is 1.3023.

The main trend is the upward cycle of October 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3211 Take profit: 1.3260

Buy: 1.3294 Take profit: 1.3350

Sell: 1.3080 Take profit: 1.3030

Sell: 1.3130 Take profit: 1.3084

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9918, 0.9896, 0.9860, 0.9835, 0.9820, 0.9782 and 0.9757. Here, we are following the downward structure of October 9. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9860. In this case, the target is 0.9835 and the passage at the cost of the range of 0.9835 - 0.9820 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.9782. The potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 0.9757, after reaching which we expect consolidation and rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9896 - 0.9918 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form an ascending structure. Here, the goal is 0.9953.

The main trend is the downward structure of October 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9918 Take profit: 0.9950

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 0.9860 Take profit: 0.9837

Sell: 0.9820 Take profit: 0.9786

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 113.31, 112.72, 112.38, 111.77, 111.48, 111.02 and 110.38. Here, we are following the downward cycle of October 3rd. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 111.77 - 111.48. The breakdown of the level of 111.48 will lead to the movement to 111.02, near this level is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 110.38, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 112.38 - 112.72 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 113.31 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend: the downward cycle of October 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 112.38 Take profit: 112.70

Buy: 112.75 Take profit: 113.30

Sell: 111.75 Take profit: 111.50

Sell: 111.46 Take profit: 111.04

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3013, 1.2982, 1.2952, 1.2911, 1.2866, 1.2835 and 1.2791. Here, we are following the downward structure of October 11th. A downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2910. In this case, the target is 1.2866 and in the range of 1.2866 - 1.2835 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2791, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 1.2952 - 1.2982 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the goal is 1.3013 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle

The main trend is the downward structure of October 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2953 Take profit: 1.2980

Buy: 1.2984 Take profit: 1.3010

Sell: 1.2908 Take profit: 1.2870

Sell: 1.2864 Take profit: 1.2837

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For the Australian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7211, 0.7188, 0.7156, 0.7130, 0.7107, 0.7092, 0.7073. Here, the price forms the ascending structure of October 10. The short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, is expected in the range of 0.7130 - 0.7156. The breakdown of the level of 0.7158 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.7188. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 0.7211, after reaching which we expect consolidation.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.7107 - 0.7092 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 0.7073 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price will have the development of the downward structure. In this case, the potential goal is 0.7040.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure from October 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7135 Take profit: 0.7152

Buy: 0.7158 Take profit: 0.7185

Sell: 0.7107 Take profit: 0.7194

Sell: 0.7190 Take profit: 0.7073

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 130.94, 130.34, 129.97, 129.43, 129.07 and 128.35. Here, the price is in correction from the downward structure and forms the potential for the top of October 15. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 129.43 - 129.07, hence the probability of an upward reversal. The breakdown of the level of 129.07 will allow us to count on the movement towards a potential target of 128.35, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 129.97 - 130.34 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 130.94 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of September 25, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.98 Take profit: 130.32

Buy: 130.37 Take profit: 130.90

Sell: 129.41 Take profit: 129.10

Sell: 129.03 Take profit: 128.40

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 150.34, 149.84, 149.10, 148.52, 147.69, 147.39, 146.92 and 146.47. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of October 15. The upward movement is expected after breakdown of 148.52. In this case, the target is 149.10, consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 149.10 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 149.84. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 150.34, upon reaching which we expect consolidation and rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 147.69 - 147.39 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 146.92 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle of October 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 148.55 Take profit: 149.00

Buy: 149.15 Take profit: 149.80

Sell: 147.35 Take profit: 147.00

Sell: 146.90 Take profit: 146.50

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Experts believe Europe is the undisputed leader of the cryptocurrency market

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According to a study published by Business Insider, most European countries are confidently leading the virtual currency market. Following with a large margin are the United States and Asia.

According to analysts at the Fabric Ventures investment fund, since the beginning of this year in Europe, the number of tokens sold during the ICO has reached $ 4.1 billion, while in the US, this figure has not exceeded $ 2.6 billion, and only $ 2. 3 billion in Asia. According to experts, the absolute dominance of European countries is due to a more favorable environment created for cryptocurrency investors.

At present, about 5.5 million blockchain technology developers are involved in Europe, and 4.4 million in the United States. In comparison with American universities, European universities produce twice as many professionals involved in IT development and innovation related to the blockchain system.

According to researchers, a turning point in the technical field came in the US in 2008, after the crisis of the banking system. In universities, especially in specialties related to information technology, the number of income declined. On the contrary, in the euroblock countries, the number of students for similar specialties has increased.

According to Bruno Le Maire, Minister of Economy of France, the blockchain revolution will not pass by Europe in general and his country in particular. He believes that France is destined to become the global center of ICO. Switzerland has similar goals, and in the UK, there are communities for working with digital assets. According to experts, the current situation contributes to fierce competition, when each state seeks to offer IT developers the most favorable conditions of all.

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Saudi Arabian authorities will strike an economic blow to the United States if sanctions are imposed

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According to most experts, the leadership of Saudi Arabia, to whom the United States is threatened with the imposition of sanctions, can adequately respond. Experts have provided a number of options for such a response, among them is the strong influence of the kingdom on the world oil market.

Experts believe that if necessary, the Saudis can raise the price of black gold to $ 100 and even to $ 200 per barrel, which will seriously affect the economy of the United States.

Another option analysts believe the acquisition of weapons by Saudi Arabia, the purchase of which the kingdom can stop. Recall that the country is the largest importer of weapons from the United States, but if restrictions are imposed, the Saudis will start purchasing them from other suppliers. The White House administration is unlikely to agree to the implementation of such a scenario, experts believe. Perhaps that is why US President Donald Trump does not yet impose any restrictions on Saudi Arabia.

The third option for influencing Washington is that the Saudis have an impressive amount of US Treasury bonds. In the event of pressure from the administration of Donald Trump, Saudi authorities may begin to sell them.

Recall that since 2014, the Saudis almost continuously bought treasuries and only in the period of the collapse of oil prices, they partially sold treasury papers. At the moment, Saudi Arabia is one of the largest countries-holders of US debt. Recently, when Japan, Russia, and China sold off treasuries, the kingdom actively increased the purchase of American debt.

Given the current trends, when most countries get rid of dollar dependence and create independent payment systems, the Saudis can refuse to purchase treasuries and start selling them, experts are sure.

The reason for the possible imposition of sanctions by the United States was the information that the Saudi authorities were involved in the murder of an American journalist Jamal Khashoggi. However, Riyadh has responded if restrictions were imposed.

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The banner of superiority eludes the dollar

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US President Donald Trump criticizes the board and methods of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. However, the normalization of monetary policy and steady GDP growth continue to support the national currency of the United States, while the wager of other Trump cards can lead to the closure of the maximum net long positions on the dollar since the beginning of last year.

Correction of indices makes investors extremely cautious about investing in shares issued in the United States. More frequent discussions about the fact that the rates on 10-year US bonds of 3.15% are too high. Barclays is expecting a return below 3% in the near term. As evidence, analysts cite September retail sales statistics and the stubborn reluctance of inflation to move far from the target mark of 2%.

At the same time, the budget deficit of 779 billion which has been the largest in six years and the growth of the negative balance of foreign trade put pressure on the "American". In 2018 figure, the first indicator increased from 3.5% to 3.9% of GDP. Note that the previous unemployment below 4% (in 2000), it was 2.3%. But when the unemployment rate was around 3.7% (in 1969), it was 0.3% of GDP.

One of the main factors for the rise of the dollar in April-October was the repatriation of capital against the background of tax reform, but its growth rates slowed down noticeably from $294.9 billion in the first quarter to $169.5 billion in the second. The effect of the fiscal stimulus is fading, which can cause a slowdown in the economic recovery in the country. It can also make adjustments to the policy of the Central Bank. There is one more circumstance that will probably add problems to the dollar which is the midterm elections in the USA.

Goldman Sachs Pro Dollar

The share of the dollar in reserves of world central banks fell to 62.3% in the second quarter. At the same time, investments in euros, yen, and yuan have increased, according to the IMF data for September. Analysts at Goldman believe that the policy of sanctions has hit the leading role of the dollar.

Restrictive measures and trade duties occupy an important place in Trump's international politics, such countries as China and Iran have experienced this. Goldman experts point to the threat that sanctions pose to the still dominant position of the dollar in the structure of world reserves.

Who intercepts the banner of primacy

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The dollar loses its strength, growth, drops the banner of superiority. But is there any worthy who could intercept him?

The burden of political problems hangs on the euro as the currency is also aggravated by the inability of the region's economy to recover from a weak start this year, and not to mention, Italy as well.

Brussels is at the crossroads. If the European Union helps Italy which now has a budget deficit that exceeds the permissible levels of the region's authorities, experts are waiting for it to collapse. The fact is that other problem countries of the region, namely Spain and Greece, may insist on such decisions in their direction. In case of non-assistance, Italy may want to withdraw from the group. Where you do not look, everywhere there are problems.

Meanwhile, the European "bulls" are still fully counting on an increase in investor discontent with the dollar. But, without having our own Trumps, it is difficult to hope for a rise to the sky. In this regard, the assumption of maintaining the consolidation of the euro/dollar in the range of 1.145-1.18 looks sensible.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for October 17, 2018

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On September 13, the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090 failed to offer enough bearish pressure on the pair. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout so far.

On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish within the depicted H4 bearish channel to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

Recently, the price level of 1.2900-1.2940 (the backside of the broken uptrend) demonstrated significant bullish recovery which led to the recent bullish breakout of the depicted H4 channel.

Evident Bullish momentum was demonstrated above 1.3010 and recently above 1.3100 (61.8% Fibo level) which led to the recent bullish movement towards 1.3200.

As for the bullish breakout scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above 1.3200 (SELL-ZONE) was needed to maintain sufficient bullish momentum initially towards 1.3280.

However, Bearish persistence below 1.3200 hindered the bullish breakout scenario allowing a further decline towards 1.3090 (61.8% Fibo level) and probably 1.3010 (50% Fibonacci level) if enough bearish pressure is applied.

Today, price action should be watched around the current price level of 1.3100 (61.8% Fibo level) to decide the next destination for the GBP/USD pair.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 17, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On September 10, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750). However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, evident bearish momentum was being demonstrated on the daily chart.

On October 10, recent bearish decline below 1.1520 found its way towards the price level of 1.1420.

As for the bearish side of the market to remain dominant, the EUR/USD pair should keep trading below the price level of 1.1520.

However, last week, evident signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated around 1.1430 (Note the full-bullish candlestick of Thursday). This brought the EUR/USD pair again above 1.1520.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair resumes its sideway consolidations inside the depicted consolidation range (1.1520-1.1750) until a bearish breakout occurs.

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Bitcoin analysis for October 17, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that Bitcoin is still in the short-term balance and that my last analysis is still active. The high of the balance is set at the price of $6.710 and the low of the balance is set at the price of $6.163. Most recently, I have found successful rejection of the support at $6.313, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward take profit level is set at the price of $6.710.

Support/Resistance

$6.454 – Intraday resistance

$6.313– Intraday support

$6.710 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Analysis of Gold for October 17, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,226.00. Anyway, according to the H4 time – frame, I have found potential end of the downward correction (regular flat), which is a sign that selling looks risky. The short – term trend is bullish and my advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the supply trendline ($1,232.00) to confirm further upward continuation. If you see a breakout of the supply trendline, watch for opening buy deals with the take profit at the price of $1,266.85.

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GBP/USD analysis for October 17, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3124. According to the H1 time – frame, I found the breakout of the bearish flag and end of the upward correction (abc flat), which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found that wave C didn't break the high at 1.3256, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for opening sell deals with the take profit levels at 1.3086 and at the price of 1.3035.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 17, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair faces resistance at 0.6617, while strong resistance is seen at 0.6617. Support is found at 0.6543 and 0.6496 levels. Today, the NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from 0.6617 level. The pair could fall from 0.6617 level to the first support around 0.6543. In consequence, if the NZD/USD pair will break support at 0.6543, this level will turn into resistance today. In the H4 time frame, the 0.6543 level is expected to act as minor resistance. Hence, we expect the NZD/USD pair to continue moving in the bearish trend from 0.6543 level towards the target at 0.6496. In the long term, if the pair succeeds in passing through 0.6543 level, the market will indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.6543 level in order to reach the second target at 0.6496. However, the 0.6496-0.6423 mark remains a significant support zone. Thus, the trend will probably rebound again from 0.6423 level as long as this level is not breached. in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario below the area of 0.6423.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 17, 2018

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Overview:

Bullish outlook.

The USD/CHF pair continues to trade upwards from the level of 0.9875. The pair rose from the level of 0.9875 to a top around 0.9865. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9865 followed by 0.9922, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9743 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9875 and 0.9999; so we expect a range of 124 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.9865, we should see the pair climbing towards the second resistance (0.9922) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.9865 with the first target at 0.9922 in order to test the daily resistance 2 and further to 0.9963. Besides, it might be noted that the level of 0.9963 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9875, a further decline to 0.9743 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for October 17, 2018

USD/CAD has been quite impulsive, making bearish swings since it bounced off the 1.3050 area with a daily close. CAD has been the dominant currency in the pair. Despite higher volatility in the trend structure, CAD managed to sustain the bearish pressure in the pair against USD.

USD has been struggling in light of recently published disappointing economic reports which pushed USD down against CAD. Recently, US CPI and Retail Sales report were published worse than expected which enabled CAD to gain impulsive momentum despite other positive economic reports from the US published later. Today the US is due to post Building Permits report which is expected to increase to 1.27M from the previous figure of 1.25M, Housing Starts are assumed to decrease to 1.22M from the previous figure of 1.28M, and Crude Oil Inventories are also expected to decrease to 1.6M from the previous figure of 6.0M. Additionally, FOMC Member Brainard is going to speak today about FED intentions on interest rates and monetary policy. The speech is expected to make a neutral impact on the current market scenario.

On the CAD side, a significant decrease in Foreign Securities Purchases to 2.82B from the previous figure of 15.29B which was expected to be at 10.05B provided USD certain room to be impulsive and win back some earlier losses. Today Canada's Manufacturing Sales report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -0.6% from the previous value of 0.9%. Ahead of the CPI and Core Retail Sales report to be published on Friday this week, the pair is set to trade with higher volatility.

Meanwhile, both Canada and the US are expected to present mixed economic reports. Any positive reading from Canada is expected to trigger impulsive momentum against USD. As the market sentiment has been favoring CAD against USD in the current market situation, further bearish pressure is expected in this pair in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has recently broken below 1.2950 area which is being retested currently by the daily candle as a retracement. The price is expected to move lower towards 1.2750 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.3050 area with a daily close, further bearish pressure is expected in this pair.

SUPPORT: 1.2750

RESISTANCE: 1.2950, 1.3050

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE and NON-VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for October 17, 2018

EUR/JPY has been quite volatile and corrective at the edge of 130.00 area from where the price is expected to sink lower in the coming days. JPY has been the dominant currency in the pair for a few days. If the reports from the eurozone do not come up with strong economic results, further bearish pressure is expected in this pair.

Recently Japan's Revised Industrial Production report was published with a decrease to 0.2% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.7%. Despite the recent downbeat economic data from Japan this week, the currency managed to sustain the bearish pressure aead of the Trade Balance report yet to be published which is expected to decrease to -0.34T from the previous figure of -0.19T. If this economic report is positive, it will indicate further downward momentum in the future.

On the EUR side, today European Union Summit is going to take place which is expected to make a serious high impact on EUR gains. Moreover, today the eurozone's Final CPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 2.1% and Final Core CPI is also expected to be unchanged at 0.9%.

Meanwhile, Japan's recent economic data and expectations are sour. As the eurozone has not provided upbeat economic data so far, JPY managed to sustain the momentum for a few days. If macroeconomic data from the eurozone which is due today surpasses expectations, then certain bullish counter momentum may be observed in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite bearish after rejecting off the 130.00 area while also being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance. Amid the recent impulsive bearish pressure, the price is expected to fall lower with a target towards 128.00 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 130.00 area with a daily close, the bearish pressure is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 128.00

RESISTANCE: 130.00, 131.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis: Intraday levels for EUR/USD, Oct 17, 2018

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German 30-y Bond Auction, Final Core CPI y/y, and Final CPI y/y. When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German 30-y Bond Auction, Final Core CPI y/y, and Final CPI y/y. The US is due to present a few economic data too such as Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1633

Strong Resistance: 1.1626

Original Resistance: 1.1615

Inner Sell Area: 1.1604

Target Inner Area: 1.1576

Inner Buy Area: 1.1548

Original Support: 1.1537

Strong Support: 1.1526

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1519

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.The US is due to present a few economic data too such as Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

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Technical analysis: Intraday levels for USD/JPY, Oct 17, 2018

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In Asia, Japan today will not release any economic data. The US is due to release a few economic reports such as Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 112.96

Resistance 2: 112.74

Resistance 1: 112.52

Support 1: 112.26

Support 2: 112.03

Support 3: 111.81

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 17/10/2018

Risk appetite in the markets improved after strong increases on Wall Street on Tuesday. The SP500 rose on Tuesday by 2.15%, which was the best day since April and a sign of ending the correction. A manifestation of sentiment improvement helps continue growth in Asia. Japanese Nikkei225 grows 1.1% and Chinese Shanghai Composite gains 0.2%.

The currency market is calm with minor changes. EUR / USD moves back to 1.1550, realizing fluctuations in consolidation. USD / JPY is trying to take advantage of increases on the stock exchanges and exits over 112.20.

Information about Brexit before the EU summit that is starting today gives rise to hopes. Diplomats, among others from France and Germany, they pointed out that negotiations are advanced, and an agreement on the Irish border is possible in the coming weeks, but not before the summit. GBP seems to be waiting for concretes and GBP / USD drifts at 1.3170.

On Wednesday, the 17th of October, the event calendar is busy with important data releases. The event of the day is the FOMC Meeting Minutes release, but during the London session, the UK will post Consumer Price Index data, the Eurozone will present CPI data as well. Moreover, during the US session, Canada will post Manufacturing Shipments data and the US itself will present Building Permits, Housing Starts and Crude Oil Inventories data. There are some speeches scheduled for today from BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe, FOMC Member Lael Brainard ECB's Jens Weidmann and BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent.

GBP/USD analysis for 17/10/2018:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data are scheduled for release at 09:30 am GMT and the market participants expect the CPI to decrease from 0.7% to 0.3% on the monthly basis. The similar reading is expected on the yearly basis, where another decrease is expected, this time from 2.7% to 2.6%.

The Consumer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market tried to rally above the technical resistance zone between the levels of 1.3244 - 1.3257, but failed to reach there and started to slowly decrease. Currently, the price is trading slowly in the middle of the range, around the level of 1.3170 as the market participants await the CPI data. A better than expected data will likely push the prices higher towards the mentioned technical resistance zone and might even break it. On the other hand, the worse than expected data will likely trigger the down move towards the technical support at 1.3132, 1.3125 and 1.3107.

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Global macro overview for 17/10/2018

The European common currency is blocked by the Italian case. Rome has approved the draft budget with the planned increase in the deficit, which is however opposed by the EU. The draft budget was submitted yesterday in Brussels and is waiting for an official opinion, but last week we heard the EC's initial position critical for "significant deviations" from the economical path recommended by the EU Council. If Italy does not go out and make no changes, the EU may initiate an excessive deficit procedure that will result in the imposition of sanctions. Hence the very rise in Italian debt yields may exert pressure on EUR and undermine the ECB's plans to normalize monetary policy.

In addition, EUR indirectly suffers from the specter of breaching Brexit negotiation talks with a major impact directed towards GBP. The EU summit is starting today, and so far nothing indicates that there will be an agreement this week. It can be said, however, that after the grim reports from the weekend, yesterday both sides tried to comment on the matter in a positive tone. The reason for the dispute remains the nature of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The details are about customs control conditions and other legal regulations in case the EU and the UK. Britain will not enter into a free trade agreement until the end of the transition period (at the end of 2020), the so-called backstop agreement. As long as the risk of a "no-deal Brexit" cannot be ignored, a negative bonus will be included in European assets.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture at the daily time frame. The market has been moving down in a descending channel since the top at the level of 0.9098. The recent low was made at the level of 0.8727 and since then, the price has bounced a little towards the nearest daily resistance at the level of 0.8847, but failed to break through. The market conditions are now oversold, but the momentum remains weak and negative, so any bullish attempt to rally should be treated as a local correction only.

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Technical analysis of Gold for October 17, 2018

Gold has most probably made a short-term top. Price is expected to pull back towards $1,215-$1,208 area for a back test of the broken resistance now support. Gold price is expected to make a higher low towards that support area and then move higher towards $1,250-60.

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Red lines - bearish long-term channel

Green rectangle - support area

Green lines - expected path of price

Gold price has short-term support at $1,217. Breaking below this level will push prices towards $1,210-$1,208. Gold could still make a higher high at $1,240 but overall I expect a move lower to form a higher low and then move higher towards $1,250-60. I do not see much upside from current levels. Only after a pull back. Resistance is at $1,232-33. Breaking it will push price to $1,240. Prices are now trading out of the bearish channel. This is a bullish sign for the medium-term. This is why I expect the bounce in Gold to push prices eventually higher towards $1,270.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 17, 2018

EUR/USD did not manage to break above resistance yesterday and got rejected. Price is pulling back towards the short-term support of 1.1550-1.1535. Next important short-term support is at 1.15. For the bullish scenario to increase chances of success, we need to see a daily close above 1.1610. A break and close below 1.15 will be a bearish sign.

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Red rectangle - resistance area

Green rectangle - short-term support

EUR/USD is challenging the 38% Fibonacci retracement and the previous resistance highs that is now support. So far price bounces off support which is a good sign. Breaking below the 38% Fibonacci retracement would most probably push prices towards the next important Fibo level (61.8%) at 1.15. It is very important for the longer-term bullish view we have to hold above 1.15-1.1480. Of course breaking above the red rectangle resistance area would be a very bullish sign and would make me expect a break above 1.18 next.

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Global macro overview for 17/10/2018

Mary Daly, the head of the FED of San Francisco and a member of the FOMC, spoke at the question and answer session. Her comments indicate that there are no signs to stop interest rate increases. Inflation is at the target, and the level of full employment has been exceeded in the labor market. The economic growth is also strong.

Asked about the situation on the market, Daly said that the current downward correction does not have to be a negative thing and you should not worry about it hastily. In her opinion, there is rarely one reason why such movements occur.

Coming back to the economy, one of the driving forces behind the current dynamic growth is fiscal policy and financial conditions. An independent central bank is essential for maintaining a healthy economy. These last words are probably a reaction to the words of Trump, who said very little that currently, the biggest threat to his policy is the Federal Reserve. It looks like the US president has found a scapegoat in the event of a country crash.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a local low at the level of 94.79, just above the 61% Fibo retracement of the previous swing up. When the low was made, the price bounced and now is its way towards the level of 95.38, which is the nearest technical resistance. The larger time frame trend remains up, so the market might again try to resume the rally soon.

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Bitcoin analysis for 17/10/2018

According to the Russian media magazine Vedomosti, investors in the interview confirmed the authenticity of the circular sent in early September to the participants of the initial monetary offer of the TON. In the circular, the company informed that the platform's Blockchain component is currently under development and is ready in 70 percent. Once launched, TON will also use its own cryptocurrency, Gram, and create a "new way to exchange data".

Earlier this year, the Telegram attracted considerable attention when, through two private presales, ICO collected almost $ 1.8 billion for investments in TON and its current communications application. In connection with such a large success of foundations, in May the directors canceled the planned public phase of ICO.

At the time, the Russian media speculated that the attempt to block access to the Telegram to citizens by the national authorities is the result of ICO and Gram's emission plans, and not, as it has been officially reported, a violation of the provisions regarding data sharing by the website.

General director Pavel Durov refused to comment when Vedomosti asked him to provide the timeframe for the issue of the TON.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market returned to the sleep mode as not much has changed since yesterday. The market has made a marginal new local high at the level of $6,455, but is still drifting slowly inside the consolidation zone. The nearest support is seen at the level of $6,322, the nearest resistance is seen at $6,455. The short-term sideway trend continues.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 17, 2018

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The corrective decline from 1.7929 has extended lower to test the support line. This support line is expected to be able to protect the downside and cause a new impulsive rally in blue wave iii towards 1.8030 and later even higher to 1.8369.

We see a clear loss of downside momentum near the support-line, which adds confidence in this support, being able to protect the downside. A clear break below this support line will be of concern, but only a break below support at 1.7477 will cause a review of the bullish count.

R3: 1.7657

R2: 1.7625

R1: 1.7588

Pivot: 1.7561

S1: 1.7555

S2: 1.7515

S3: 1.7477

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR here at 1.7555 with our stop placed at 1.7465.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 17, 2018

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EUR/JPY is finally showing signs that the correction in blue wave (2) has come to an end with the test of 129.12. To confirm this is the case, we need a break above resistance at 130.51, the finally will confirm that blue wave (2) is complete and blue wave (3) towards 138.10 has started unfolding.

Support is now seen at 129.75 and then at 129.36.

R3: 131.27

R2: 130.85

R1: 130.51

Pivot: 130.15

S1: 129.75

S2: 129.36

S3: 129.12

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 129.80 and has placed our stop at 129.00. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 129.35 or upon a break above 130.51 and use the same stop at 129.00

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the American session on October 16. Buyers continue to build a new upward trend for the pound

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The breakthrough of the resistance level at 1.3165, to which I paid attention in my morning review, led to a further increase in the pound. Now, testing of the support 1.3205 from top to bottom will be a good signal for the opening of new long positions with access to the maximum of last week in the area of 1.3253, where taking profits are recommended. In the case of a decrease in the pound in the afternoon below the support of 1.3205, you can buy to rebound from the area of 1.3171. The breakthrough of 1.3253 will lead to a new wave of growth of the GBP/USD pair in the area of resistance at 1.3291.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Sellers need to rely on a return below the support level of 1.3205, which will lead to a larger downward correction in the area of 1.3171, where taking profits are recommended. In the case of maintaining the uptrend in the second half of the day, for example, due to poor data on industrial production in the United States, it is best to consider short positions in the pound after testing last week's high of 1.3253 or on the rebound from the resistance of 1.3291.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

The pair has fixed above the moving average, and the 30-day average crosses upwards the 50-day average, which indicates the formation of a new uptrend.

Bollinger bands

The potential of the GBP/USD pair for a downward correction will be limited by the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3171.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP / USD pair for October 16, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price will move up with the first goal of 1.3258 on the upper fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price will move up with the first goal of 1.3258 on the upper fractal.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR / USD pair for October 16, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the market will move up with the first target of 1.15599 at 38.2% (blue dashed line), and it is only possible to continue the upward movement with the subsequent goal of the upper fractal 1.1612 if a breakout occurs on this level.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, an upward movement with the first target of 1.1599 is expected with a recoil level of 38.2% (blue dashed line) and a continuation of the uptrend when it breaks through.

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Gold is out in the wild

No matter how hopeless against the background of a strong dollar at the beginning of October, the position of gold did not look, for an infinitely long time to ignore the favorable external background precious metal could not. Trade wars, the growing probability of slowing the GDP of China and the world economy, the uncertainty around Brexit, the Italian political crisis and, finally, the threat of Saudi Arabia to inflate oil prices to $100 per barrel in case the United States imposes sanctions, from a fundamental point of view, should contribute to the growth of demand for safe-haven assets. However, as long as the US stock market was dominated by buyers, there was little chance of gold, because this situation is regarded by investors as a high global risk appetite. Another thing is the correction of the S&P 500. In this regard, it becomes clear why the catalyst for the breakthrough by the precious metal of the upper limit of the trading range of $1185-1215 per ounce was the worst two-day collapse of US stock indices since February.

Having lost about 10% of its value since April against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy and the revaluation of the US dollar, gold has been stuck in consolidation for a long time. It waited in the wings and waited. Growing volatility in the US stock market is forcing investors to diversify their portfolios, increasing the share of reliable assets. And even in times of escalation of trade wars between the United States and China, it was believed that the dollar stole from the yen and the precious metal's safe haven status, in fact, and the US currency has its Achilles heel. As soon as the S&P 500 went down, the inflow of foreign capital was replaced by an outflow, which allowed gold to mark the best daily dynamics since the referendum on Britain's membership in the EU in 2016.

Gold dynamics

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What's next? The fate of the XAU/USD will depend on the US securities market and the position of the dollar. Despite the fact that the consensus forecast of Bloomberg experts suggests that the yield of Treasury bonds may rise above current levels by the end of the year, Barclays believes that the figure will soon fall below 3%. According to the bank, investors overestimate the strength of the American economy, and weak statistics on retail sales and inflation proves it. As for the S&P 500, the most likely scenario is consolidation. Forecasts of corporate profits for 2018 are optimistic (+23%), but it appears more modest for 2019 (+10%), with the fading effect of fiscal stimulus and trade wars will contribute to a slowdown in US GDP.

The dollar is gradually losing its trump cards. The factor of four hikes in the Federal funds rate by the end of 2019 has already been practically taken into account in the quotes of related pairs, while the decline in the rate of repatriation of capital and economic growth is negative for the bulls on the USD index. These circumstances allow us to be optimistic about the prospects of the precious metal.

Technically, the daily gold chart continues to implement the target of 88.6% on the "Bat" pattern. To begin with, the bulls need to storm the resistance at $1239-1244 per ounce.

Gold, daily chart

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GBP/USD: whether to believe the optimism of the bulls?

Published data on the UK labor market again raised the importance of soft Brexit in the context of monetary policy prospects. Experts started talking about the fact that in the event of a deal, the Bank of England may raise the rate twice next year, and for the first time in February. Earlier, a later date was discussed – traders focused on the summer months of 2019. But the dynamics of the key macroeconomic indicators of the British forces us to revise the previous forecasts.

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Traders are not confused by the fact that the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased to 18.5 thousand. Although this indicator shows gradual growth since June, adversely affecting the overall picture of the labor market. But the market focused on other components: in particular, the unemployment rate remained at a record low four percent - this is the lowest level since 1975 (although in 2004 the indicator approached this target, but did not fall below 4.7%). But the most surprising thing today was the dynamics of wage growth. The indicator is growing for the second month in a row, exceeding not only the forecast values, but also long-term highs.

Thus, excluding bonus payments (which are inherently unstable), the figure rose to 3.1% – this is the strongest growth rate since 2009. Taking into account the bonuses, the indicator also exceeded expectations and reached 2.7%, showing a positive trend for the second month in a row. Even the American labor market cannot boast of such results, which has been strengthening for the third year in a row. Despite the fact that Americans have reached full employment, and official unemployment in the United States is only 3.7%, the growth rate of wages there leaves much to be desired. Fed members have repeatedly expressed concern about this, since such a situation negatively affects the growth of inflation indicators.

In Britain, wages have also been criticized by members of the British central bank. But if the trend of the last two months continues, the Bank of England can really bring the date of the first rate hike next year, especially against the background of growth of other macroeconomic indicators. That is why any positive rumors around the prospects of Brexit provide the pound with such strong support – because on the way to tightening monetary policy there is only one factor that can be resolved in the coming days.

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It is not the first time to talk about London and Brussels coming close to concluding the deal. The GBP/USD pair follows the headlines and the current comments of politicians – so the price movement is sometimes intermittent. And yet optimism prevails, although the statements of the top officials of Europe, Britain and Ireland are contradictory and heterogeneous. Thus, the German Minister for Europe Michael Roth said in the morning that an agreement between London and Brussels is likely to be reached. Later he was supported by the Prime Minister of Ireland Leo Varadkar - however, in his opinion, the negotiation process should be extended until November or December.

But the President of the European Council Donald Tusk voiced a pessimistic scenario. He noted today that there is no reason for optimism, and the parties should prepare for a "hard" Brexit, because such a scenario is now "more likely than ever". Theresa May, who spoke in the British Parliament last night, was also restrained in her assessments. According to her, the deal is the best option for both sides, but the compromise has been achieved. The labour leader compared the current situation with the plot of the "Groundhog Day" film, as the negotiation process moves in a circle, but there was no mutually beneficial solution.

In other words, today's growth of the GBP/USD looks, in my opinion, premature and in some sense false. Traders repeat the mistake of a month ago, when the market heard only optimistic forecasts about the informal summit in Salzburg, ignoring the alarming signals. Now the situation repeats itself: none of the high-ranking participants of tomorrow's meeting can say exactly how the negotiations will end, so all the preliminary comments of politicians are assumed. But, judging by the dynamics of the pound, the market was inspired by the statements of several officials who expressed some optimism.

Of course, if tomorrow the parties really find common ground on the main issues (especially on the Irish border), the pound paired with the dollar will grow impulsively by several hundred points, thus giving rise to a protracted upward trend. But otherwise, the pair will collapse much more than a month ago-because there is less and less time for further negotiations.

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Summing up, it should be noted that technically the GBP/USD pair is still upward: this is indicated by the location of the price between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1, as well as the formed bullish signal of the "Parade of lines" of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator. But in the coming days, the material will not "work", since the fate of the pair will depend on the outcome of the October summit. In the context of the current situation, it is best to stay for some time "on the fence", that is, to take an observant position and not open trade orders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the US session on October 16. The market is completely calm

To open long positions for EURUSD, it is required:

The market situation has not changed compared to the morning forecast. Trading remains in the side channel of 1.1534-1.1605. The formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.1569 occurred, which led to the resumption of demand for the euro, but the main task is to re-test and break the upper limit of 1.1655 with the exit to the highs in the area of 1.1648 and 1.1682, where I recommend to lock in the profit. If the euro falls below the support level of 1.1569 in the second half of the day, purchases can be returned to the rebound from the lower border of 1.1534.

To open short positions for EURUSD, it is required:

Sellers will expect an unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.1605, and good data on industrial production in the US will lead to a decline in the EUR/USD in the support area of 1.1569, where I recommend taking profits. If a quick sell-off after the update of last week's high does not follow, I recommend returning to short positions in euro only to rebound from the resistance level of 1.1648. A break of support at 1.1570 will instantly lead to a decline in the euro to yesterday's low of 1.1537.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade has moved one level from the 30- and 50-day moving average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is very low, and therefore I do not recommend paying attention to its performance.

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Indicator description

Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. October 15th. Results of the day. The fate of the pound may be decided at the summit on October 17-18

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 105 p-117 p-79 p-66 p-111 p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 96 PT (97 p). The British pound opened today with a large "gap" down, but managed to close it during the day.

In principle, the technical picture of the last two days for EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs is the same. The only difference is that the pound is more volatile. At the moment, the price has consolidated back above the Kijun-sen line, which may mean the completion of a deep correction and the resumption of an uptrend. However, the MACD indicator is still pointing down (!!!), which is due to the formation of a "gap" at the opening of the market. Thus, the indicator readings are simply incorrect now. As for the fundamental component, in addition to the report on retail sales in the US, which slightly increased the demand for the pound during the day, there is nothing to note today. Even no new rumors about Brexit has not been received. Thus, market participants are fully focused on the summit, which will be held on 17-18 October, and which is highly likely to be either signed an agreement or negotiations will fail completely. Of course, everyone, especially traders, now believe that the "deal" will be signed. But we think the odds are about 50/50. If the parties could easily concede on the Northern Ireland border, they would have done so long ago. Nobody wants to give in, and Britain needs the "deal" first. But additional concessions to the European Union will lower Theresa May's political ratings even more. Not everyone is happy with her rule and negotiations in the UK.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair seems to have completed the correction, but the breakdown of the Kijun-sen line may be false, given the nature of the next bar. Thus, now it is recommended to hurry with the opening of new longs, it is better to wait for clarification of the situation.

Sell positions are relevant as long as the price is below the Kijun-sen line. But MACD did not react to the upward correction and now can not signal its completion with a turn down.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com