Analysis of Gold for October 02, 2017

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Recently, the Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,271.95. According to the 4H time frame, I found a fake breakout of the downward channel in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is a successful breakout of Friday's low at the price of $1,277.65, which is another sign of weakness. Sellers are in control and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $1,245.20 (Fibonacci expansion 100%).

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,278.50

R2: $1,280.00

R3: $1,282.45

Support levels:

S1: $1,274.80

S2: $1,272.53

S3: $1,271.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for October 02, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3263. According to the 30M time frame, I found a breakout of Friday's low at the price of 1.3350, which is a sign that sellers are in control. The price also broke a downward trendline, which is another sign of weakness. I placed Fibonacci to find potential downward targets. I got FR 50% at the price of 1.3215 and FR 61.8% at the price of 1.3120. Watch for potential selling opportunities.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3350

R2: 1.3395

R3: 1.3425

Support levels:

S1: 1.3280

S2: 1.3255

S3: 1.3215

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for October 02, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards.The price tested the level of $4,445. According to various reports, the African country of Zimbabwe is suffering from severe economic hardships similar to the inflation and currency crisis in Venezuela. Furthermore, demand for bitcoin is surging.

Trading recommendations: According to the 15M time frame, I found a bullish gap today and hidden bearish divergence on the moving average osiclator, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is also a breakout of an upward trendline. My advice is to watch for intraday selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $4,296 and $4,182.

Support/Resistance

$4,445 - Intraday resistance

$4,295 – Intraday target (price action)

$4,182 – gap target (price action)

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 02, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair is trading above its rising 50-period moving average, which plays a support role and maintains the bullish bias. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported that personal income grew 0.2% on month in August (as expected) and personal spending was up 0.1% (as expected). Market News International posted its Chicago PMI at 65.2 in September (vs. 58.7 expected, 58.9 in August). And the University of Michigan posted its consumer sentiment index at 95.1 for September (vs, 95.3 previously estimated, 96.8 in August).

To sum up, as long as 112.40 holds on the downside, look for a further advance to 113.25 and even to 113.50 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 112.40 with a target at 112.20.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 112.40, Take Profit: 113.25

Resistance levels: 113.25, 113.50 and 114.00 Support Levels: 112.20, 112.00, 111.50

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Trading plan 02 - 10/06/2017

Trading plan 02 - 10/06/2017

The general picture: The EUR/USD rate opened with a gap down on the Spain-Catalonia crisis. Week of important news.

On Monday, the pair EUR/USD fell in the morning after the Catalan citizens held a referendum on independence from Spain during the weekend. The Spanish central government strongly resisted the referendum, declaring it illegal. There were mass clashes with the police and hundreds of victims.

According to the authorities of Catalonia, 2 million Catalans participated in the referendum or approximately 40% of those eligible to vote from the 5 million adult population. 90% voted to withdraw from Spain.

Madrid is tough against.

Spain is an important economy in the EU and the euro area, it's no wonder that the euro is falling.

This week is a week of important news. On Monday is the ISM industrial index for the USA and on Wednesday is the ISM services sector.

On Wednesday, a report on employment in the US for September from ADP and on Friday, a report on nonfarm.

We expect high volatility.

We sold EUR/USD from 1.1770 (stop 1.1815)

Possible sales for a breakthrough down 1.1715

Alternative: Buy for a breakthrough 1.1835 up.

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Global macro overview for 02/10/2017

Global macro overview for 02/10/2017:

The global monetary policy changed dynamically in September, which brought the crystallization of the trend, that is beginning to follow more and more leading central banks. Monetary policy-makers are tired of prolonged inflationary pressures, which in normal circumstances would justify departing from ultra-soft policies introduced during 2007 crisis. While economic activity is more than satisfactory and the labor market is healthy, economists still can not see a revival in wage growth and stimulation of inflationary pressures. On the other hand, the long-term maintenance of record low-interest rates has led to a dangerous situation on the credit and real estate market. Now impatient central bankers prefer to risk that inflation will eventually move up in the future, than to protect against the uncertain effects of the overturning households and businesses and bubble in the real estate market. Central banks are moving into action, but not all and not at the same pace. From the point of view of the foreign exchange market, this means changes in the pattern that the currency has stronger support in market interest rates.

In September, surprising decisions were made by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, which resulted in CAD and GBP rally. The European Central Bank will support EUR when the monetary policy changes in the near term (asset purchase reducing program) and FED keeps hiking the interest rates on a steady pace. Moreover, ECB activity will prompt Norges Bank and Riksbank to normalize the monetary policies, so NOK and SEK should get stronger in the near term. At the opposite extreme are the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank, which are not even interested in further weakening the domestic currency.

In conclusion, September was a surprising month for market participants and there are clear clues, that the monetary stance triggered last month will be continued to the end of the year and might even intensify at the beginning of 2018.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price is still hovering around the 78%Fibo at the level of 112.95, but the upward momentum is decreasing. The bounce from technical support at the level of 112.19 did not result in new local highs, so the odds for a further downside correction are rising. Breakout below the violet trend line will result with a drop towards the next technical support at the level of 111.45.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 2, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested earlier in September.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

The current price levels of 0.7320-0.7350 can be watched for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 2, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, If the current bearish breakout below 1.1800 (the depicted uptrend line) and 1.1700, a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 where BUY entries can be offered.

Trade Recommendations

Bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.1835-1.1850 (the backside of the broken uptrend line) should be considered for a valid SELL entry.

S/L should be placed above 1.1950.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 02, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.9675. The pair is trading above its key support at 0.9675, which is expected to limit any downside room. In addition, the 50-period moving average is turning up, and now acts as a support role. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extent should be limited.

As long as 0.9675 holds on the downside, look for further advance to 0.9745 and 0.9765 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9675, Take Profit: 0.9745

Resistance levels: 0.9745, 0.9765, and 0.9790

Support levels: 0.9650, 0.9630, and 0.9600

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Global macro overview for 02/10/2017

Global macro overview for 02/10/2017:

Who is going to be the next Federal Reserve Chairperson? How will the US Dollar react to this announcement? There are various speculations among market participants regarding this matter. President Trump reported that he had four meetings on this issue and would make a decision within 2-3 weeks. The Yellen current period as Fed chair ends in February 2018. According to economists, the candidates are: current Chairperson Janet Yellen, Vice President Jerome Powell, Chief Economic Officer Gary Cohn and Kevin Warsh. Not putting too much emphasis on the topic, with all four Janet Yellen is considered the most dovish regarding the future monetary policy. The same Janet Yellen, who a dozen days ago showed great determination for yet another interest rate hike this year and three more in 2018. If we add that the rotation of voting FOMC members next year is toward a more hawkish group, then all of this favors a further increases in US bond yields and ongoing support of USD rally.

Let's now take a look at US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is again trying to break through the technical resistance at the level of 93.63, but so far no avail. Moreover, the bullish rally is not being supported by the momentum oscillator and the market conditions are not bullish, but let's say neutral at best. In the other hand, a breakout higher will immediately open the road towards the next resistance at the level of 94.16.

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Bitcoin analysis for 02/10/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 02/10/2017:

The head of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde, warns central bankers that Bitcoin is rising. In an interview for ABC News she said: "In many ways, virtual currencies might just give existing currencies and monetary policy a run for their money. The best response by central bankers is to continue running effective monetary policy while being open to fresh ideas and new demands, as economies evolve." In her opinion, cryptocurrencies are unlikely to replace the traditional currency for now, as they are too violative, too risky and underlying technologies are not yet scalable. Nevertheless, she warned the central bankers that they should not ignore the technology or underestimate it as there will inevitably and undoubtedly be more technological innovation in blockchain and digital currencies will continue to grow and thrive.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The first projected target for wave (c) had been hit and now the market is at the crucial moment. Either it will reverse here and move impulsively lower towards the level of $4,000 or the price will extend the move even higher towards the next projected target at the level of $4,661. Please notice the growing bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator.

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Bitcoin analysis for 02/10/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 02/10/2017:

The head of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde, warns central bankers that Bitcoin is rising. In an interview with ABC News she said: "In many ways, virtual currencies might just give existing currencies and monetary policy a run for their money. The best response by central bankers is to continue running effective monetary policy, while being open to fresh ideas and new demands, as economies evolve." In her opinion, cryptocurrencies are unlikely to replace the traditional currency for now, as they are too violate, too risky and underlying technologies are not yet scalable. Nevertheless, she warned the central bankers that they should not ignore the technology or underestimate it as there will inevitably and undoubtedly be more technological innovation in blockchain and digital currencies will continue to grow and thrive.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture on the H4 time frame. The first projected target for wave (c) had been hit and now the market is at the crucial moment. Either it will reverse here and move impulsively lower towards the level of $4,000 or the price will extend the move even higher towards the next projected target at the level of $4,661. Please notice the growing bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator.

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Euro goes into correction

Eurozone

Preliminary data on consumer inflation in the eurozone for the month of September proved to be worse than expectations, depriving the euro of a chance to resume growth. According to Eurostat, the inflation rate was 1.5% with the forecast of 1.6%. Meanwhile, the basic index minus energy and food prices increased by 1.1%, which is much worse than 1.3% for the month of August. The overall structure of the index indicates that inflation is supported solely by price increases in the services sector. The share of the industrial sector is only 0.1%, which indicates the weakness of the consumer sector.

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Today, the employment report in the euro area for the month of August will be published . The unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 9.1% to 9.0%, but the average wage growth, according to experts, will remain subdued and well below the historical average of 2.1%. The release of data, if it is no better than expectations, will confirm the trend towards deflationary pressure and push the probability of the stimulus program ending further into the future.

Also, the level of consumer activity can be estimated on Wednesday, when retail sales data will be released for the month of August. After a weak July (-0.3%), a moderate growth of 0.3% is expected. Deviation from the forecast in any direction can influence the euro exchange rate.

On Monday morning, the euro remains under pressure, with the probability of a decline to 1.16 remains high.

United Kingdom

Friday brought a few positive news to the pound. In August, there has been a positive trend in consumer lending. After the failure in July last year, there is recovery, albeit not at a rapid pace. However, for the whole, the growth was quite confident. The total volume of commercial investments in the second quarter also turned out to be higher than expected. The growth was 0.5% with zero forecast and 2.5% year-on-year.

At the same time, GDP growth in the third reading was still adjusted downward from 1.7% to 1.5%. The dynamics remain weak. In fact, the GDP growth rates are the worst for 4 years, only in the services sector.

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The head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, confirmed on Friday a high probability to raise the rate at the meeting on November 2, provided that there is no data indicating the weakness of the economy. What is considered a weakness? Before the meeting of the Bank of England for another month, the pound, most likely, will take a pause because there are no clear reasons to resume growth.

Negotiations on Brexit will not be continued next month, despite the fact that the position of the UK has softened considerably. Too much of a complex of contradiction has been identified by the parties, and pro-expert approaches will not find new approaches. News from this side should not be expected.

On October 1-4, the congress of the Conservative Party in Manchester, which is in a weakened state after the June elections, will convene. There are more specific comments on the state of the British economy from Therese May.

On Monday, Markit will present data on business activity in production and service sector. Expectations are currently neutral. Reduction in the GBP/USD pair is slightly more likely. The immediate goal of bears is support for 1.3113.

Oil

Confident oil growth creates prerequisites for technical correction, and the growing likelihood of strengthening the dollar will help to reduce it. At the same time, the growing demand and confident control over production by OPEC + will help Brent quotes stay above the support zone of 55.40 / 90.

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Trading plan for 02/10/2017

Trading plan for 02/10/2017:

The US Dollar appreciated in the first hours of the Monday session, which was caused by a slight reshuffle on the debt market. EUR/USD opens a gap lower after the Catalan referendum riots and is currently trading at the level of 1.1754. Exchanges in China and Hong Kong are closed today due to a national holiday. Investors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange are likely to be positive as some modest gains in the Nikkei 225 (0.1%) are being noticed.

On Monday, 2nd of October 2017 we start a new month and a new quarter, but the event calendar is not very busy with important data releases. Early in the morning, Spain, Germany, France, Italy and the UK will release PMI Manufacturing data, and Switzerland will post the Retail Sales data. During the US session, Canada will present RBC Manufacturing PMI (s.a.) data and the US will post ISM Manufacturing PMI data.

EUR/USD analysis for 02/10/2017:

The PMI Manufacturing data from across the Eurozone main economies will be released during the early London session and at 08:30 am GMT the UK will post PMI Manufacturing data as well. In general, market participants do not expect any surprises in the reading and have a positive attitude towards the PMI Manufacturing figures. Moreover, the Unemployment Rate from the whole Eurozone is expected to tick lower from 9.1% to 9.0%, so it can elevate the mood even higher. Nevertheless, the Catalan referendum results and riots might weight on the Euro sentiment during the day. Approximately 2.26 million people voted, 90% of whom voted for the region's independence, the Catalan regional government said. 8% were opposed to the region's independence and other voices were invalid. As reported by the Catalan government spokesman Jordi Turull, about 42.3% of the eligible Catalan voters were present in the referendum. This means that these results were very similar to those of the unofficial poll that was held in November 2014. Jordi Turull stated that the converted ballot papers do not include those that were confiscated by the Spanish police during a forceful intervention at polling stations. He added that during the fight with law enforcement officials, at least 844 people were injured, including two in severe condition. The wounded were also 33 policemen.

No one can predict what will happen if the Catalan authorities, as promised, relying on the results of such a "chaotic" referendum, will accept its results as a basis for proclaiming independence, threatening Spain with the loss of one of its richest and most economically developed regions. Whatever the outcome of this decision will be, it will have an impact on the Euro anyway.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The technical resistance at the level of 1.1826 was too strong for bulls to be broken, so the price reversed towards the old support at the level of 1.1721. If this support is violated then the next is seen at the level of 1.1662.

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Market Snapshot: Gold down below another support

The price of Gold has broken below the technical support at the level of $1,274 and it is heading towards the next support at the level of $1,267. The market conditions are oversold and there is a visible bullish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator, but the downtrend prevails.

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Market Snapshot: EUR/GBP in a horizontal correction

The price of EUR/GBP has broken below the golden trend line and now seems to be locked in a narrow horizontal zone between the levels of 0.8742 - 0.8851. On a daily time frame, the market conditions are oversold, but any bounce towards the level of 0.8851 was capped so far. In a case of any breakout lower, the next support is 61%Fibo at the level of 0.8692.

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The dollar starts to take off

Despite the combined efforts of the Fed and the Trump administration, the US dollar was not able to complete the week with growth. It recoiled from the intermediate highs reached on Thursday.

The reason for such indecision of investors may be much deeper than the market is aware of. Until recently, players were very skeptical about the likelihood of another rate hike this year, as the Fed lost the main argument in the matter of rates because of the rising inflation. As you know, the Fed proceeds from the assumption that full employment will automatically ensure an increase in inflation. They believe that it will lead to an increase in the average wage and real population income. This position was repeatedly voiced by both the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, and many other members of the Committee.

However, the latest data indicate that the process of increasing the population income is stalling. The PCE report showed that consumer spending growth slowed down in August where the growth was only 0.1% versus 0.3% in July, with inflation being accounted for the first time since January. The PCE Core index rose by 1.3% year-on-year which is worse than the forecast of 1.4%.

The reason may be the worse state of affairs for employment than what is considered. The graph below shows the result of the San Francisco FRB study, which compares the official growth of new jobs (left histogram) with the calculated, weather-adjusted, and seasonal data. Following from the calculations, the employment situation deteriorated for 4 consecutive months, which means that there is no reason to expect real income growth.

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Thus, the main factor of confidence in the continuation of the growth of rates under threat is the assumption that there are no reasons for the return of inflation to the growth trajectory. Perhaps, this factor explains the cautiousness of investors and the muted demand for the dollar, which is still behind expectations.

The market will overestimate the Fed's ability to maintain the intended course. In early September, Deputy Chairman of the Federal Reserve Stanley Fischer decided to resign on October 13, as reported in a letter to US President Trump. On Saturday, it was reported that Trump will decide on a candidate for Fed chair head post within three weeks. So, Yellen's resignation after his first term looks almost settled. The Fed will significantly update the composition besides dealing with a new reality in the form of an amended fiscal law, which may require adjustments to monetary policy.

On Monday and Wednesday, there will be reports on business activity from Markit and ISM. Given that the regional indices rose steadily in September, we can expect that both indexes will support the trend towards confidence growth. As a result, the dollar will receive some support. Also on Wednesday, the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, is scheduled.

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On Friday, the employment report for September will be published. And given the slowdown, the growth in new jobs may be less than 100,000, which does not add points to bulls. Representatives of the Fed in recent weeks have repeatedly stated that they are ready for weak macroeconomic data and will not pay any special attention to them, since they are "connected with hurricanes". However, investors can argue differently because the slowing of the labor market will not give the chances to rising inflation. In this case, the dollar will lose the driver for growth.

Thus, the beginning of the week for the dollar looks quite optimistic, but in order to continue growing, it will need support in the form of good ISM indices and an employment report. The dollar will have an advantage against defensive assets, primarily against the yen. However, rising oil and the outlook for outpacing rates in Canada and the UK make the favorites of the week commodity currencies.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for October 2, 2017

The Dollar index has made a shallow pullback towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement and started its bounce on Friday and continues today. Price is testing important daily resistance today. A rejection today will increase the chances that a major top was made last week.

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Price is trading above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen (red and yellow line indicators). Price held above the 38% Fibonacci retracement and is bouncing. Resistance is at previous highs at 93.65. Support is at 93.10-93.20. As long as price is above that area, bulls are in control.

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Red lines - bullish channel

The Daily chart of the Dollar index shows price inside the bullish channel and testing the Kumo (cloud) resistance. Entering the cloud will turn daily trend to neutral from bearish. Support is at 92.95 on a daily basis. A daily close below 92.95 will open the way for a move towards 92.10 at least.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for October 2, 2017

Gold price is making new lows early this week. I continue to consider this pullback as a corrective one inside a larger bullish trend. The decline from $1,291 is to be completed today and a reversal at least towards $1,285 is to be seen this week.

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Black line - resistance trend line

Blue lines - bullish divergence signs

Gold price is trading below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen (red and yellow lindicators). Trend is bearish on the 4-hour chart. Bullish divergence signs continue to be given each time a new low is made. Short-term resistance is at $1,285. Breaking above it will push price towards $1,298 at least. Support is at $1,270.

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On a daily basis Gold price is testing the daily Kumo (cloud). Price is just below the 50% retracement of the rise and could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Daily support is now at $1,260-55. Resistance is at $1,293. My longer-term view remains bullish.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 29, 2017

Forex analysis review
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 29, 2017

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 02, 2017

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We will retain our previous outlook for GBP/JPY. The pair is still expected to trade with a bearish bias. Though the pair posted a rebound, the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 151.55. Even though a continuation of technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

To conclude, as long as 151.55 is not surpassed, a return to 150.10 and even to 149.70 seems more likely to occur.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 151.55 with the target at 151.80.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 151.55, Take Profit: 150.10

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 151.80, 152.25 and 152.80

Support levels: 150.10, 149.70, and 149.00

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 02, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a earish outlook. The pair is under pressure below the key resistance at 0.7225, which should limit the upside potential. Even though a continuation of the rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

To sum up, as long as 0.7225 is not surpassed, look for another drop with targets at 0.7165 and 0.7140 in extension.

The black line is showing the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7245, 0.7260, and 0.7280

Support levels: 0.7165, 0.7140, and 0.7100

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 02, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair dropped sharply from the level of 1.1836 towards 1.1750. Now, the price is set at 1.1760. On the H1 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 1.1836 and 1.1911. Volatility is very high for that the NZD/USD pair is still expected to be moving between 1.1836 and 1.1716 in coming hours. In the short term, we expect the NZD/USD pair to continue to trade in a bearish trend from the new resistance level of 1.1836 to form a bearish channel. Also, it should be noted that major resistance is seen at 1.1911, while immediate resistance is found at 1.1836. According to the previous events, the pair is likely to move from 1.1836 towards 1.1716 and 1.1657 as targets. In the H1 time frame: On the other hand, if the pair succeeed to pass through the level of 1.1836, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 1.1836. So, the market will rise further to 1.1911 in order to return to the resistance 2. Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to 1.1994.
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for October 02, 2017

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards from the area of 1.3350-1.3298. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.3298, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.3298, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade between 1.3298 and 1.3655. So, the support is seen at 1.3298, while daily resistance is found at 1.3655. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3298. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the zoneof 1.3298 with the first target at the level of 1.3655; and continue towards 1.3886 in coming days. However, if the GBP/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3655 today, the market will decline further to 1.3298.
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 2, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for a break above 1.6410 to confirm that red wave iii/ is developing for a rally towards 1.6875. Support is now seen at 1.6326 and important support is seen at 1.6263, which should protect the downside for the break above 1.6410.

R3: 1.6488

R2: 1.645

R1: 1.6410

Pivot: 1.6400

S1: 1.6336

S2: 1.6263

S3: 1.6222

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 1.6365 and has placed our stop at 1.6250.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 2, 2017

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Wave summary:

Wave B has now moved into the 133.05 - 133.37 and could be complete for wave C lower towards at least 130.37 and likely even closer to 128.96 as wave C is expected to extend.

Short-term a break below minor support at 132.60 will confirm that wave B is complete and wave C lower is developing

R3: 133.77

R2: 133.45

R1: 133.37

Pivot: 133.00

S1: 132.60

S2: 132.24

S3: 132.04

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 133.00 with stop placed at 133.55.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 02, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Unemployment Rate, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, Final Manufacturing PMI, German Final Manufacturing PMI, French Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1864.

Strong Resistance:1.1857.

Original Resistance: 1.1846.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1835.

Target Inner Area: 1.1807.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1779.

Original Support: 1.1768.

Strong Support: 1.1757.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1750.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Oct 02, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Final Manufacturing PMI, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index, and Tankan Manufacturing Index data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.42.

Resistance. 2: 113.20.

Resistance. 1: 112.98.

Support. 1: 112.71.

Support. 2: 112.49.

Support. 3: 112.27.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for October 2, 2017

EUR/USD has been quite bearish on the recent week which did show some bullish retracement towards 1.1840-50 resistance area. There has been a Gap today in the market which has been also retested as well and the price is currently progressing downward. There is a good amount of economic reports to be published this week which Is expected to inject a good amount of volatility in the market. As of the recent 2 days of price action, EUR was expected to start with the lead this week but the price action shows a different point of view. Today, EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 53.2 from the previous figure of 52.4, Italian Manufacturing PMI report is expected to increase to 56.9 from the previous figure 56.3, French Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 56.0, German Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 60.6, Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 58.2, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate is expected to decrease to 11.2% from the previous value of 11.3% and EUR Unemployment Rate is expected to decrease as well to 9.0% from the previous value of 9.1%. On the USD side, today Final Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 53.0, ISM Manufacturing PMI report is expected to decrease to 57.9 from the previous figure of 58.8, Construction Spending report is expected to show an increase to 0.4% from the previous negative value of -0.6% and ISM Manufacturing Prices is expected to increase to 64.5 from the previous figure of 62.0. As of the current situation, EUR has a series of economic reports to be published today where most of the reports are expected to be unchanged but as of the recent performance of EUR economic reports it can be expected that we might see some mixed results and on the USD side as of the reports are forecasted to show growth which can lead to further gains on the USD side in the coming days. This week ECB President Draghi is going to speak on Wednesday and US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate reports are going to be published on Friday. So as the starting of the month with a good amount of high impact events and reports to be published on both currency of this pair, a good amount of volatility is expected to hit the market this week whereas USD is expected to have an upper hand over EUR with the gains.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price started the week with a gap whereas it has also rejected it already and currently showing some bearish pressure. The recent price surged higher towards 1.1840-50 area but could not sustain the bullish pressure and ended up opening the first week of the month with a bearish gap. As of the current scenario, as the price remains below 1.1900-1.1850 resistance area the bearish bias is expected to continue further with a target towards 1.1620 support area.

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AUD/JPY breaking our as expected, remain bullish

The price has finally made a bullish exit of its triangle formation. We remain bullish looking to buy above support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, bullish divergence) and play the breakout from the triangle towards 89.09 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major support above 7% and also sees bullish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is fast approaching.

Buy above 88.04. Stop loss is at 87.59. Take profit is at 89.09.

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EUR/USD approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

The price is approaching major resistance at 1.1841 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect to see a strong reaction off this level to push the price down to at least 1.1728 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, Elliott wave theory).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance from the 100% level and we're starting to see a nice reversal take place.

Sell below 1.1841. Stop loss is at 1.1890. Take profit is at 1.1728.

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AUD/USD approaching our selling area, remain bearish for a further drop

The price has reversed nicely below our selling area last week. We remain bearish looking to sell on the pullback to the resistance area of 0.7868 (Fibonacci retracement, overlap resistance, bearish price action) for a further push down to at least 0.7791 support (Fibonacci extension, Elliott wave theory).

Stochastic (21,3,1) is seeing major resistance at 98% and still has good downside potential to play our drop.

Sell below 0.7868. Stop loss is at 0.7913. Take profit is at 0.7791.

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USD/CHF right on major support, time to start buying

The price is right on major support at 0.9672 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support) and we expect to see a major bounce above this level to push the price up to at least 0.9758 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) sees major support above 42% where we continue to holds our bullish bias as long as it remains above the support.

Buy above 0.9672. Stop loss is at 0.9627. Take profit is at 0.9758.

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USD/JPY right on selling area, remain bearish

We remain bearish looking to sell below 112.65 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, bearish divergence) for a further drop towards 110.90 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

RSI (55) sees bearish divergence signaling that a strong reversal is impending. However, we see intermediate support at 50% so only a break of this level would confirm a further downside move.

Sell below 112.65. Stop loss is at 113.45. Take profit is at 110.90.

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NZD/USD dropping nicely since reaching our selling area, remain bearish

The price touched our selling area before reversing strongly. We remain bearish looking to sell below major resistance at 0.7244 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, Fibonacci extension) for a push down to at least 0.7178 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) once again.

Stochastic (21,3,1) is seeing strong resistance at 95% and still has good downside potential to ride the drop down.

Sell below 0.7244. Stop loss is at 0.7300. Take profit is at 0.7178.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 2, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair dropped by 200 pips last week, dropped briefly below the support line at 1.1750 and then closed above the support line at 1.1800. This week, a further bearish movement is possible (which means the current rally in the context of a downtrend is another opportunity to go short at better prices), as price goes towards the support lines at 1.1800, 1.1750 and 1.1700. The outlook on EUR pairs is strongly bearish for the month of October, so EUR could be seen going downwards versus major pairs.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF is precariously bullish. In case the EUR/USD continues to slide southwards, the USD/CHF would be moving northwards. Another impediment to the bullishness of the USD/CHF is the expected stamina in CHF itself (which would happen within the next two weeks). However, bulls would become a clear winner at the end of the month, as USD would start a vivid gathering of strength.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD was generally bullish in September, save the bearish correction that was witnessed last week. The price came down by 200 pips and that has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Further bearish movement is strongly anticipated this week as price targets the accumulation territories at 1.3350, 1.3300 and 1.3250. The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week, and therefore, long trades are not recommended.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument has gone upwards by 450 pips since September 11, and it has thus generated a bullish signal which still remains in place. This week and this month, the movement in the market would be determined by whatever happens to USD. A stronger USD would mean the market would continue going north, while a weaker USD would result in a protracted bearishness that could eventually lead to a "sell" signal.

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EUR/JPY: This cross dropped on Monday and Tuesday and then consolidated for the rest of last week. Nonetheless, a closer look at the market reveals that bulls have been subtly pushing the market upwards: thereby saving the recent bullish bias. Price could continue going upwards – and if EUR is weakened too much – price could nosedive.

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Daily analysis of USDX for October 02, 2017

USDX is in a corrective phase in the short-term and awaits to test the 200 SMA at H1 chart. Further gains are expected to take place during this week, as the price action doesn't give any hints of bearish continuation. However, if it manages to consolidate below the 200 SMA at H1 chart, we can expect a decline towards the support level of 91.67.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04

H1 chart's support levels: 91.67 / 90.30

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place bull (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 93.09, take profit is at 94.04 and stop loss is at 92.15.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 02, 2017

GBP/USD currently trades below the 200 SMA at H1 chart and remains supported by the 1.3350 level, which should help to give a boost to the Cable, but the risk to the downside still prevails. With a breakout below the 1.3309 level, we should expect another leg lower towards 1.3209. MACD indicator remains slightly in the positive territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3460 / 1.33592

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3309 / 1.3209

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3309, take profit is at 1.3209 and stop loss is at 1.3408.

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