EUR/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

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EURUSD is approaching support where we might be seeing a bounce above this level.

Entry: 1.1197

Why it's good : horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 1.1181

Why it's good : 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal swing low support

Take Profit : 1.1244

Why it's good: 50% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal pullback resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension

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AUD/USD broke past its intermediate support, potential further drop!

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Price broke past its intermediate support which confirms a further drop.

Entry: 0.7011

Why it's good : 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 0.7046

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 0.6994

Why it's good: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback support

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USD/JPY approaching support, possible bounce!

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Price is reaching support at 108.110, a bounce could occur!

Entry :108.110

Why it's good :

50% Fibonacci retracement

100% Fibonacci extension

Horizontal overlap support

Take Profit : 108.566

Why it's good :

horizontal pullback resistance

61.8% Fibonacci retracement

100% Fibonacci extension

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 17/07/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Georgia has released cryptocurrencies from VAT, as reported by the Internet portal dealing with cryptocurrencies.

According to the publication, the Minister of Finance of Georgia, Nodar Khaduri, recently signed a law aimed at regulating the taxation of entities trading or kicking cryptocurrencies. The act came into force at the end of June. The definition of the decentralized currency presented by the bill is as follows:

"Cryptocurrencies are digital assets that are exchanged electronically and based on a decentralized network. Their exchange does not require a reliable intermediary and they are managed using DLT technology" - we read.

With the introduction of the law, residents of the country can exchange cryptocurrencies into the currency of Fiat without paying VAT. Nevertheless, Khaduri pointed out that Georgian lari will remain a legal tender in Georgia and - similarly to foreign fiat currencies - the country will not allow the use of cryptocurrencies for payment.

The article explains that mining companies will still have to pay VAT unless they are registered abroad, which may result in the relocation of local mining companies.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair is testing the technical support located at the level of $190.94 after the bulls have failed to rally above the 50% of the Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down. The downside momentum was very strong and the bears are in full control of the market, so this support might be violated. The next technical support for the price is seen at the level of $181.94.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $421.78

WR2 - $368.25

WR1 - $298.00

Weekly Pivot - $241.50

WS1 - $169.20

WS2 - $118.90

WS3 - $41.01

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 17/07/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The new analysis showed the movement of stolen Bitcoins from Binance to various wallets. The hack in which 7,000 Bitcoins were abducted, took place on May 7, 2019, and the hackers transferred the stolen Bitcoins from the wallet to the wallet.

Now, however, some activity has been noticed, which suggests that hackers transfer profits from exchanges, potentially to other cryptocurrencies. It became clear that the hackers began liquefying Bitcoins on various exchanges.

Analysis of one of the main networks used by the hacker shows that they have managed to liquefy at least 1.8087 BTC ($ 21,000) on various exchanges.

Although objections are in force, it is clear that the hacker has moved some Bitcoins to each of the exchanges and has either left the chain or remained dormant. This is, of course, no consolation for those who observe how their stolen crypt jumps from the stock exchange to the stock exchange.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has broken below the technical support located at the level of $9,672 (wave A bottom) and made a new low at the level of $9,177. The Elliott wave count has been updated accordingly and now the preferred scenario is an ABC-X-ABC formation as the last leg of the wave Y. This means we might likely see one more leg to the downside as the bears are in full control of the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $14,838

WR2 - $13,876

WR1 - $11,942

Weekly Pivot - $11,071

WS1 - $9,127

WS2 - $8,276

WS3 - $6,180

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.

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Overview of GBP/USD on July 17. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". The UK is racing full speed to the "hard" Brexit

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -152.8607

Today in the UK, the consumer price index for June will be published, however, judging by yesterday's market reaction to reports on wages, macroeconomic information from Britain is not particularly interested in traders. Markets are waiting for the completion of the election of the Prime Minister, the completion of Brexit, or at least some clarity on it. Thus, we believe that even if inflation accelerates today, it will not help the British currency very much. An upward correction to the moving average is possible, but it is still quite difficult for the bulls to count on something more. Meanwhile, the EU has once again disowned any new negotiations with the UK under the terms of the Brexit agreement. TThe EU placed particular emphasis on London's attempt to exclude from the agreement a point on "backstop", which will allow Northern Ireland to remain in the EU Customs Union after Brexit. The European Union said that the exclusion of this paragraph from the agreement is equivalent to the cancellation of the entire agreement. Thus, we once again draw attention to the fact that both UK Prime Minister candidates, Johnson and Hunt, can promise a lot of different things, but how many of them will be fulfilled? However, this is a normal situation for elections, when promises are maximum, and their implementation is possible. The most important conclusion from this is the approaching "hard" Brexit, traders feel it and continue to get rid of the pound sterling.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2390

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2421

R2 – 1.2451

R3 – 1.2482

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP/USD resumed its downward trend. Thus, it is again recommended to sell pound sterling with the closest target of 1.2390, after which all Murray levels are recalculated.

It will be possible to buy the pound/dollar pair with the goals of 1.2543 and 1.2573 not earlier than the price consolidation back above the moving average line, but with the minimum lots.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 17/07/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has failed to break through the orange trendline and reversed lower towards the technical support located at the level of 1.2432. This support has been violated and the new local low was made at the level of 1.2395 in oversold market conditions. This is also a new swing low at the higher time frame charts, so the breakout is very important at the downtrend continues. The next long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1983.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 12770

WR2 - 1.2670

WR1 - 1.2630

Weekly Pivot - 1.2528

WS1 - 1.2496

WS2 - 1.2396

WS3 - 1.2356

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to follow the larger timeframe trend. The larger time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of any trend reversal. The key long-term technical support at the level of 1.2420 has been violated and the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1983.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 17/07/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has reversed towards the technical support zone located between the levels of 1.1193 - 1.1206 after the Pin Bar candlestick formations have been made around the level of 1.1285. This technical support is the key long term support and if broken, then the new swing lows can be seen shortly. Please notice the oversold market conditions and weak and negative momentum support the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1406

WR2 - 1.1342

WR1 - 1.1312

Weekly Pivot - 1.1251

WS1 - 1.1222

WS2 - 1.1157

WS3 - 1.1125

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to buy the corrections in anticipation of the uptrend to resume. This strategy is valid as long as the level of 1.1181 is clearly violated. The larget time frame trend is still down, but there are signs of the trend reversal and the Ending Diagonal breakout to the upside.

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on July 17, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The range of the price downward channel for the Australian dollar has expanded onhe daily chart. It received an updated look but it did not breakthrough the signal level of 0.7049. Meanwhile, the reversal trend is gaining momentum. The first goal of the reduction is the area of accumulation of technical lines, which is a graphic nested line of the price channel at MACD indicator line (blue color). It is an indicator of the trend direction and being independent support and resistance in the area of 0.6933. When the price reaches the specified support area, the Marlin oscillator will connect to its strengthening and the signal line of which will meet the border of the "bears" territory. With the overcoming of support by the price, the second goal of 0.6878 has opened, which also determined by the nested line of the price channel.

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On the four-hour chart, the price tries to break through below the MACD line, which will succeed in our main scenario since the Marlin oscillator line is already being introduced into the zone of decreasing trend. We are waiting for the price in the area of 0.6933.

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Trading plan for US Dollar Index for July 17, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The US dollar Index might be ready to form an up Gartley and drop towards 96.40 levels before rallying higher above 98.00 levels. As the 4H chart is displayed, the rally from 95.84 through 97.60 levels had unfolded into 5 waves (impulse). The subsequent wave is 3 waves lower, waves a and b look to be in place (not labelled here). If prices remain below 97.59/60 levels, wave c is expected to unfold lower towards 96.40 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at 97.60 followed by 97.90 levels. Support is at 95.84 levels and only a break below may indicate that a major correction is underway. Another short opportunity is seen with a risk just above 97.60 levels as the above counter trend drop unfolds.

Trading plan:

Short now @ 97.30, stop above 97.60, target is 96.40

Good luck!

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Overview of EUR/USD on July 17. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". Eurozone inflation: a new reason to sell the

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -164.6272

During the second trading day of the week, the EUR/USD pair ended with a significant decrease, although in general, the volatility remains not too high. However, it is now possible to declare that the market participants are ready for new sales of the euro. On July 17, the publication of the consumer price index in Europe for June is planned. Recall that in recent months, inflation in the EU slowed to 1.2%. If the slowdown continues, the reasons for the ECB to lower the rate and start pouring fresh money into the economy will become more, and the pressure on the euro will increase. It so happened that in recent weeks, low inflation in the US and a possible reduction in the key rate was not discussed. However, we continue to insist that the States still remain in the lead in the balance of power between the US and the EU. Inflation is higher, the labor market is stronger, and the rate is much higher. And even if there is a recession in the economy, it is still much less tangible than in the European Union. And it is still Trump that has not started a full-scale trade war with the European Union. A similar war with China has led to a slowdown in China's GDP to a minimum value for 27 years. What will happen to the EU economy in this case, if the European regulator is already thinking about easing monetary policy despite the fact that the current rate is 0.0%?

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1169

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.1047

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1292

R3 – 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is fixed below the moving average line. Now, therefore, it is recommended to sell the euro/dollar pair with a target of 1.1169 before the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top.

It is recommended to buy the euro after the bulls consolidate back above the moving average line, which will change the trend to the upward one, and the targets, in this case, will be the levels of 1.1292 and 1.1353.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for July 17 - 2019

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GBP/JPY dipped to a low of 133.94. With this dip, the level 134.50 has been completed. So, we will be looking for signs that the pair is searching for a bottom. The first strong indication of a a corrective decline in wave 2 being complete will be a break above resistance at 135.26 while a break above resistance at 136.28 will confirm a new impulsive rally in wave 3 is unfolding.

However, as long as resistance at 135.26 is able to cap the upside, we must accept a final dip to just below the 133.94 low. However, the downside potential should be limited.

R3: 136.28

R2: 134.92

R1: 134.48

Pivot: 134.29

S1: 133.94

S2: 133.68

S3: 133.40

Trading recommendation:

We bought GBP at 134.75

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Trading plan for EURUSD for July 17, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD is poised to complete the correction with one more push higher towards 1.1320/30 levels as highlighted on 4H chart view here. The wave structure from 1.1412 levels through 1.1193 earlier was a 5 waves impulse drop; ideally, it should be followed by a 3 wave corrective rally labelled as potential a-b-c here. If the above structure holds, and prices remain above 1.1193 levels, we could see wave c unfolding higher towards 1.1320/30 levels. The RSI has also reversed higher from just above 30 levels which is supporting the expected price action. Immediate support is seen at 1.1180 levels while strong resistance is at 1.1412 respectively. Another opportunity to go long is provided by the above counts with a good risk reward ratio. Please note that this is a counter trend rally and the trade setup is an aggressive one.

Trading plan:

Go long again @ 1.1210/13 levels, stop at 1.1180, target 1.1320.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 17 - 2019

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We continue to look for a final dip closer to the 120.62 target. This should complete wave 2 and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave 3. Short-term minor resistance is seen at 121.68 while short-term important resistance is seen at 121.86. A break above this resistance will indicate that wave 2 has completed and wave 3 is developing for a rally to and above 123.36.

R3: 121.85

R2: 121.68

R1: 121.53

Pivot: 121.30

S1: 121.07

S2: 120.92

S3: 120.62

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a EUR-buying opportunity at 120.85 or upon a break above 121.68

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 17,2019

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When the European market opens, such economic data as German 30-y Bond Auction, Final Core CPI y/y, and Final CPI y/y will be published.The US will release such economic data as Beige Book, Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits.So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1266. Strong Resistance:1.1260. Original Resistance: 1.1249. Inner Sell Area: 1.1238. Target Inner Area: 1.1212. Inner Buy Area: 1.1186. Original Support: 1.1175. Strong Support: 1.1164. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1158. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, July 17, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data today, but the US will publish some economic data such as Beige Book, Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 108.77. Resistance. 2: 108.56. Resistance. 1: 108.34. Support. 1: 108.08. Support. 2: 107.87. Support. 3: 107.65. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 17, 2019

GBP/USD

The pound sterling fell by 110 points yesterday due to the tightening of the rhetoric of both candidates for the post of British prime minister, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, regarding the conditions of Brexit, namely along the rigid border with Ireland, which could later lead to Brexit without a transitional deal. Also elected to the post of head of the European Commission, Ursula der Layen mentioned the harsh conditions for the UK, although she allowed the possibility of another postponement of it's date.

Inflation figures for June will be released today in the UK. Forecasts for them are more negative than positive. The base CPI could increase from 1.8% y/y to 1.7% y/y, but the overall CPI is projected to remain unchanged at 2.0% y/y and the producer price index significantly pulls down the overall situation - the forecast is -1.0 % y/y versus 0.0% y/y in May. The price index for residential real estate could drop from 1.4% y/y to 1.2% y/y.

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The price is in a downward trend on the daily chart and there are no obstacles to reaching the target level of 1.2296, which is the support for the embedded line of the price channel.

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On the four-hour chart, the price is securely consolidated below the balance line and the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is slightly bent up, but this is a sign of a small discharge of the indicator before it decreases further.

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Forecast for EUR/USD for July 17, 2019

EUR/USD

The euro fell by 47 points under external and internal pressure on Tuesday. At first, these were pessimistic indicators of ZEW business sentiment, then there was pressure from candidates for Great Britain's prime minister, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, regarding the conditions of Brexit and resulting in a strong decline in the pound, then strong data on retail sales in the United States were released.

The German ZEW business sentiment index for July fell from -21.1 to -24.5, while in the euro zone the index deteriorated from -20.2 to -20.3. The trade balance for May showed an increase from 15.7 to 20.2, but the pound sterling had already dropped by 50 points by this time. Retail sales in the US in June showed an increase of 0.4% against expectations of 0.1%. Industrial production showed zero growth in June, with a drop in capacity utilization to 77.9% from 78.1%, which in general did not cause pessimism.

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On the daily scale chart, the price went below the price channel line and the Fibonacci level is 100.0%. Here, below the lines, there may not be a long consolidation, a set of forces before going under the signal level of 1.1193, after which we expect a long-term decline towards targets 1.1155 (Fibonacci level 110.0%), 1.1116 (a low of 30 May and 25 April).

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On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated below the balance and MACD lines, while the Marlin oscillator indicates a steady decline in the trend.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on July 17

The forecast for July 17:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1283, 1.1251, 1.1233, 1.1221, 1.1195, 1.1169, 1.1137 and 1.1116. Here, the price canceled the development of the ascending structure and at the moment, we are watching the formation of the potential for the bottom of July 15. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1195. In this case, the goal is 1.1169, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1169 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.1137. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1116. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1221 - 1.1233. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1251. This level is a key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the potential target is 1.1283 .

The main trend - the formation of potential for the bottom of July 15

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1221 Take profit: 1.1232

Buy 1.1335 Take profit: 1.1250

Sell: 1.1295 Take profit: 1.1170

Sell: 1.1167 Take profit: 1.1140

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2492, 1.2458, 1.2434, 1.2395, 1.2364 and 1.2337. Here, the price canceled the development of the ascending structure and we are following the downward trend of July 12. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2395. In this case, the target is 1.2364. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2337. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2434 - 1.2458. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2492. This level is a key support for the downward structure of July 12.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2435 Take profit: 1.2457

Buy: 1.2460 Take profit: 1.2492

Sell: 1.2395 Take profit: 1.2365

Sell: 1.2362 Take profit: 1.2337

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9952, 0.9902, 0.9881, 0.9841, 0.9820, 0.9797 and 0.9779. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 9. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9841. In this case, the goal is 0.9820. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to count on the movement to 0.9797. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 0.9779. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Consolidated movement is possible in the range of 0.9881 - 0.9902. We expect the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle to the level of 0.9902.

The main trend is the formation of the downward structure of July 9, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9881 Take profit: 0.9902

Buy : 0.9910 Take profit: 0.9950

Sell: 0.9840 Take profit: 0.9822

Sell: 0.9818 Take profit: 0.9797

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.99, 108.70, 108.42, 107.78, 107.58, 107.41, 106.98 and 106.68. Here, we are following the downward structure of July 10th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.78. Here, the goal is 107.58, and near this level is a price consolidation. A passage at the price of the noise range 107.58 - 107.41 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. In this case, the goal is 106.98. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 106.68. From which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 108.42 - 108.70. The breakdown of the latter value will have to form an upward structure. Here, the potential target is 108.99.

The main trend: the formation of a downward structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.43 Take profit: 108.70

Buy : 108.72 Take profit: 108.99

Sell: 107.78 Take profit: 107.58

Sell: 107.40 Take profit: 107.00

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3141, 1.3105, 1.3090, 1.3041, 1.3016, 1.3001, 1.2964 and 1.2937. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 9th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3041. In this case, the first goal - 1.3016. The price pass of the noise range 1.3016 - 1.3001 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 1.2964. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2937. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

The range of 1.3090 - 1.3105 is a key support for the downward structure. Its price passage will have to form an upward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.3141.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3105 Take profit: 1.3140

Buy : Take profit:

Sell: 1.3041 Take profit: 1.3016

Sell: 1.3000 Take profit: 1.2965

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7111, 0.7091, 0.7063, 0.7050, 0.7013, 0.6991 and 0.6969. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of July 10. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7050 - 0.7063. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 0.7091. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7111. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7013 - 0.6991. The breakdown of the latter value will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. Here, the goal is 0.6969.

The main trend - the ascending structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7050 Take profit: 0.7063

Buy: 0.7065 Take profit: 0.7090

Sell : 0.7011 Take profit : 0.6993

Sell: 0.6988 Take profit: 0.6972

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.28, 121.89, 121.59, 121.22, 120.92 and 120.48. Here, we are following the downward structure of July 10th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 121.22. In this case, the target is 120.92, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 120.48. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 121.59 - 121.89. The breakdown of the latter value will have to the formation of the potential for the top. Here, the goal is 122.28.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.59 Take profit: 121.87

Buy: 121.94 Take profit: 122.28

Sell: 121.20 Take profit: 120.94

Sell: 120.90 Take profit: 120.50

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 135.04, 134.70, 134.44, 134.13, 133.94, 133.56 and 133.24. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 9th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 134.13 - 133.94. In this case, the goal is 133.56. We consider the level of 133.24 to be a potential value for the bottom. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 134.44 - 134.70. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 135.04. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 134.45 Take profit: 134.65

Buy: 134.72 Take profit: 135.04

Sell: 133.94 Take profit: 133.56

Sell: 133.50 Take profit: 133.25

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#USDX vs GBP / USD H4 vs EUR / USD H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from July 17, 2019. Analysis of APLs &

Everything becomes clear in comparison...

In this regard, we look at yesterday's options for #USDX vs EUR / USD H4 vs GBP / USD H4 and relate them to the current situation on FOREX today, and then try to determine the prospects for the development of these instruments from July 17, 2019.

Minuette (H4)

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US dollar Index

After the breakdown of the resistance level of 96.95 (the final Schiff Line Minuette) #USDX was in the range again :

- resistance level of 97.38 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork);

- support level of 97.22 (a Median Line channel Minuette);

The direction of the breakdown of which will determine the development trend of the movement of the dollar index from July 17, 2019.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 97.38 - the development of the #USDX movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (97.38 - 97.50 - 97.70) of the Minuette operating scale with a perspective (after the breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette - the resistance level of 97.70) to reach the final Shiff Line Minuette (97.95) and the final FSL line Minuette (98.22).

When the dollar index returns below the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (support level of 97.22), the development of the #USDX movement can be continued towards the goals - the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (96.90) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork - local minimum 96.75 - 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (96.25 - 96.05 - 95.85).

The details of the #USDX movement from July 17, 2019 are presented in the animated graphic.

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Euro vs US Dollar

The 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale (support level of 1.1255) could not stop the downward movement of the single European currency, and EUR / USD was in the range formed by the levels:

- resistance level of 1.1235 (SSL start line for the Minuette operating scale);

- support level of 1.1220 (lower boundary of ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork);

Accordingly, the further development of the EUR / USD movement from July 17, 2019 will be due to the direction of the breakdown of this range.

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1220 at the lower boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork , together with the breakdown of the support level of 1.1210, will determine the further development of the movement of EUR / USD in the channel boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line (1.1210 - 1.1195 - 1.1175) and equilibrium zone (1.1185 - 1.1165 - 1.1150) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the ultimate Schiff Line Minuette (1.1130).

On the other hand, if the EUR / USD returns above the initial SSL line (resistance level of 1.1235) of the Minuette operating scale fork, then there may be a development of the upward movement of the single European currency to the targets - the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette (1.1255) - the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 (1.1290) the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the lower boundary of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette (1.1340).

The details of the EUR / USD movement options from July 17, 2019 are shown in the animated graphic.

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Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar

1/2 Median Line Minuette (support level of 1.2510) was safely broken. As a result of which, Her Majesty's currency (GBP) found itself in an equilibrium zone (1.2460 - 1.2415 - 1.2375) of the Minuette operating scale. The breakdown direction of which will determine the further development of the GBP / USD movement from July 17, 2019.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 1.2375) of the Minuette operational scale fork along with the LWL38.2 Minuette warning line (1.2385) will make it possible to continue the downward movement of GBP / USD to the control line LTL Minuette (1.2315) and the warning line LWL61. 8 Minuette (1.2287).

In the case of the breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 1.2460) of the Minuette operational scale, the development of Her Majesty's currency movement will continue to the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.2460 - 1.2500 - 1.2540) with the prospect of reaching the initial line SSL Minuette (1.2580) and the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (1.2645).

The details of the GBP / USD movement from July 17, 2019 are presented in the animated graphic.

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The review was compiled without taking into account of the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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GBP/USD: the chances for a "soft" Brexit are rapidly decreasing, the pound has fallen to two-year lows

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TheGBP/USD pair slipped to the lowest level since 2017 (to the level of 1.2420).

Several factors are playing against the British currency at once: this is a high probability of the implementation of a "hard" Brexit, and a moderate economic growth in the country, and the fact that the monetary policy of the Bank of England can move to a more "soft" course.

On the eve of the two candidates for prime minister, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, stated that even substantial concessions on the part of the European Union on the regulation of the Irish border may not be enough to ratify the "divorce" agreement. This heightened concerns that the new British government's stance on Brexit would be more rigid, which could lead to the breakdown of the London-Brussels talks and the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU on October 31 without a deal.

According to analysts, the dynamics of the GBP/USD pair reflects the general mood of the market in relation to the pound.

In this regard, it is noteworthy that the British currency was unable to use even the positive statistics on the country's labor market today.

According to the National Statistical Office (ONS), the average salary (including premiums) increased by 3.4%, in March-May with an expected growth of 3.1%. At the same time, unemployment remained at the lowest from October-December 1974 - 3.8%.

The employment sector in the country remains one of the few that remains stable despite the constant stress caused by Brexit.

The futures market is already expecting a 50% chance of lowering interest rates by the Bank of England in 2019 due to the risk of Great Britain's chaotic exit from the EU, as the policy outweighed stronger than expected labor market data.

This month, the pound sterling hit a two-year low against the US dollar.

Analysts polled recently by Bloomberg report that the situation may worsen next month. Moreover, this is an established trend: the fall of the pound against the dollar in August has been noted over the past five years.

"In any case, we will have enough cause for concern in August, with the arrival of the new prime minister of Great Britain, as we are approaching October 31," the currency strategists of Royal Bank of Canada believe.

"Since the British Parliament has gone on summer vacation, the deadline for the UK's withdrawal from the EU is inexorably expiring," said MUFG analyst Lee Hardman.

ING Group believes that B. Johnson will become a leader who will not succeed in concluding a new agreement with Brussels. This will increase the likelihood that Great Britain will leave without a deal.

The main message of B. Johnson during the Brexit campaign was that this event would not have a negative impact on the British economy. However, the irony is that the ex-foreign minister may become the prime minister of the country just at the moment when the national economy will fully experience all the Brexit.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The euro's clipped wings, takeoff is impossible

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Factors such as trade wars, the weakness of the eurozone, the soft monetary policy of the ECB are not in favor of the euro. Another escalation of the US-China conflict, which may well occur, will strike at European exports and increase the risks of recession in the region. The owner of the White House argues that the slowdown of China's economy to its lowest level for 27 years is nothing but an effective US tariff policy. Washington is likely to increase pressure on Beijing if the latter does not accept the conditions proposed by the Americans. Recall that Chinese authorities have repeatedly emphasized that they will not participate in this kind of dialogue.

The risks of a downturn in the euro bloc are also discussed in the OECD. The government does not stimulate the economy enough, representatives of a reputable organization believe. The contribution of state support to GDP growth is insignificant 0.3 pp, while the forecasts of an increase in the economy are significantly adjusted downward. Activities, in the first place, are expected from Germany, which is working with a budget surplus. German debt rates on 15-year securities are negative, which leads to additional investor spending, and these funds could go into the real economy. As an example, here you can take France with its fiscal stimulus of 17 billion. Thus, the country's economy for the first time in 6 years will grow faster than the average for the eurozone.

Accelerate the process of restoring the eurozone economy by 0.75 percentage points stimulating fiscal policy is quite capable in the next two years, according to the OECD. However, experts warn that the ECB can not cope with the approaching recession on their own. Based on ING research, the likelihood of a recession will increase with a slowdown in the industry. But there is one positive thing that allows us to expect that the negative growth rates of the economy will be avoided - employment in the manufacturing sector continues to expand.

In principle, the euro is not averse to grow, but the burden of problems prevents. On top of everything else, a trade conflict between the European Union and the USis brewing. In such conditions, it's hard for euro bulls to dream about $1..15, and even more so about $1.17. However, when there is a currency war, it is almost impossible to predict the result. According to representatives of PIMCO, the White House will definitely intervene in the life of foreign exchange markets, and this will happen very soon. The effectiveness of direct dollar sales against the background of a constant stream of statements about a weak national currency exchange rate and the Fed's readiness to lower rates can be very high.

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Now traders refrain from any active actions, preferring to wait for the release of data on retail sales and industrial production from the United States. Information in the releases can be a signal of how much the Fed will loosen monetary policy at a meeting in July. After Jerome Powell's speeches before Congress, the likelihood of a 50 percent reduction in the rate increased from 2% to 29%. The statistics, deprived of optimism, will raise the chances even higher and help EUR/USD buyers to push quotes to the bottom of the 13th figure.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: potential decline to 1.1170 and a "powder keg" for dollar bulls

Bears of the EUR/USD pair managed to overcome the support level of 1.1230, which corresponded to the Kumo cloud boundaries on the daily chart, and then headed towards the 11th figure - or more precisely, to the next support level of 1.1170 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1). The overall market situation is unequivocally negative for the euro and fairly neutral for the dollar. However, today the US currency received support from retail sales in the US, while the single currency received another blow from the German statistics.

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Thus, the euro was pressured by figures from the ZEW Institute. In particular, the sentiment index in the business environment of Germany dropped immediately to the level of -24.5 points - this is the most negative result since last November. Analysts expected a negative trend, but, according to their forecasts, the indicator should have dropped to -22.7 points. In Europe as a whole, this indicator also remained at semi-annual lows, having stood at -20.3 points. At the same level, the indicator was released last month. After the surge of optimism in April, when for the first time in 2 years, both in Germany and in the EU as a whole, they were above zero, this dynamic looks depressing, and this fact had a corresponding impact on the single currency. Judging by the rhetoric of members of the ECB, the central bank is ready to use its whole arsenal of available actions in the fall. In particular, we are talking about the bond purchasing program and reducing the interest rate. Not so long ago, the head of the ECB acknowledged that many of the early indicators warn of a worsening situation in the eurozone, so the risks for forecasts remain downward.

By the way, tomorrow's data on the growth of European inflation may put additional pressure on the euro if they are revised downward. We will know the final data for June. According to initial estimates, the overall consumer price index rose to 1.2%, while the core index rose to 1.1%. According to the general opinion of experts, core inflation will be subject to revision - the indicator can be reduced to 1%. In this case, bears of the EUR/USD pair will have another reason to sell the single currency, and the price will certainly be consolidated within the 11th figure.

Moreover, the greenback's growth is fueled by fairly good statistics from the United States. Today, dollar bulls have pleased retail sales. Contrary to negative forecasts, indicators of consumer activity have not decreased, but in fact remained at the level of the previous period. The overall figure, as well as the figure excluding car sales, grew in June by 0.4% (with a decline forecast to 0.1%). Excluding auto and fuel sales, the indicator has been growing for the second month in a row, reaching 0.7%. Against the background of the growth of key macroeconomic indicators (strong Nonfarm and positive dynamics of inflation), these figures have provided significant support to the dollar. I note that Jerome Powell, in the course of his speeches and without this release, stated the intensification of consumer activity. He associated the main risks for the Fed with other factors (first of all, we are talking about geopolitical risks and reducing the volume of business investments).

Nevertheless, today's release made it possible for dollar bulls to once again show character - in almost all pairs, the greenback strengthened their positions, and the EUR/USD pair was no exception. In general, the dollar is gradually gaining momentum throughout the market, and either Powell or Trump can hinder this process. Here it is necessary to emphasize the fact that the Fed's July interest rate cut is largely taken into account in prices, so any reminder about this on the part of the US central bank's members is quite calmly perceived by the market. Dollar bulls fear only aggressive rates of monetary policy easing - for example, a one-time cut in the rate by 50 basis points or the beginning of a decline cycle. The "precautionary" rate cut of 0.25% was largely played by the market, especially after the Fed head's dovish speech in Congress, during which he actually announced the relevant intentions of the regulator.

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In my opinion, the greatest danger to the dollar is not the Fed, but Donald Trump, who repeatedly expressed outrage at the overvalued exchange rate of the national currency. According to Bloomberg, the US president has already instructed his advisers to develop a strategy to weaken the dollar. According to insider sources, Larry Kudlow, the chief economic adviser to the president, and Stephen Mnuchin, the minister of finance, opposed any US intervention to weaken the greenback. But according to Trump, an overly expensive dollar is almost the key obstacle to a country's economic growth. In turn, economic growth, according to the head of the White House, should provide him with a second presidential term. Here it is worth noting that the overwhelming majority of opinion polls are giving a definite advantage to former Vice-President Joe Biden. Even the Fox News channel, which clearly sympathizes with Trump, acknowledged this fact. According to their polls, Trump is almost 10% behind Biden.

Thus, good news for dollar bulls is that the greenback has acquired "immunity" regarding the Fed's stated intentions to cut the rate by 25 points (and more aggressive measures are unlikely to be applied). In addition, US statistics also provide background support for the dollar. The bad news is that Trump may initiate currency interventions, especially if the US currency continues to rise in price across the entire market. Taking into account such (possible) perspectives, dollar bulls sit on a "powder keg", which can jerk at any moment.

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair has the potential to fall to the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, which corresponds to the mark of 1.1170. If the bears overcome this support level (which is unlikely within the next few days), the pair will head to the bottom of the 11th figure, that is, to the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart.

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