EURNOK: EURO to gain over hawkish NOK? May 31, 2019

The euro managed to sustain the bullish momentum over the Norwegian Krone. The single currency is likely to extend further gains.

The Eurozone economy developed at a slower pace in 2018, following a robust growth in the previous year. The number of employed people had increased by more than ten million since mid-2013. The ECB staff projected the annual real GDP growth at 1.1% in 2019, 1.6% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021. Headline inflation in the Eurozone had lately been flying around 1.5%, somewhat lower than in the figure of last year, when it was around 2.0%. The headline inflation was projected to be 1.2% in 2019, 1.5% in 2020 and 1.6% in 2021. For the longer term if the ECB manages to achieve the target GDP and inflation the euro will grow against all other major currencies.

The Norges Bank remains one of the more hawkish monetary authorities in the world while most other major central banks have paused their rate hike cycle. The inflation of Norway is expected to be 2.5% in 12 months, unchanged from the previous quarter. Expected annual inflation in 2 years is 2.5%, up 0.1% from the previous quarter. The annual wage growth is expected to be 3.1% in 2019 and 3.1% for next year also. 76.9% of households expect the prices for goods and services to be higher in the next 12 months, down 4.0 percentage points from the previous quarter. The main aim of the Norges bank is to maintain monetary stability by keeping inflation low and stable. In terms of GDP, Norway is much stronger than the Eurozone in comparing the last few year's data and the divergence is expected to continue as the Norges Bank is expecting another rate hike in June 2019. This week, the retail sales rate of Norway has improved from 0.6% to 1.8% while credit indicator showed a decrease of 0.1% from the last data.

As of the current scenario, the Norwegian economy showed some positive signals of recovery. The euro attracted the buyers' attention and rose moderately.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the range of 9.65 to 9.85 price area which is expected to play the inbound range rejection further as the price push higher towards 9.85 area. A rejection with daily close off the 9.85 area is expected to lead to further bearish pressure which may result in the price residing at the edge of 9.65 support area again in the future. As the price resides below 10.00 area with a daily close, the continuation of the bearish momentum is expected.

analytics5cf0aa3d04d91.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD / JPY pair on May 31, 2019

USD / JPY pair

Today's morning, China has received weak economic data. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from 50.1 to 49.4 in May. the indicator of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector remained at the same 54.3 points. Amid aggravating relations between the United States and China, the data was perceived particularly sensitively. The dollar fell 45 points against the yen, pushing the support of the embedded price channel line on the daily chart. Fixing below this line will provoke a further decrease in price up to the January 10 minimum of 107.78.

The current technical situation is completely downward. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator signal line is turning downward. On the four-hour chart, the price was fixed below the balance lines and MACD, while the Marlin line is in the negative zone.

Nevertheless, the USD / JPY pair still has a chance to come back above the trend line of the price channel. The reason may be due to moderately optimistic data from Japan today and evening data on income and expenditure of consumers. Industrial production in Japan added 0.6% in April against expectations of 0.2%. The unemployment rate dropped from 2.5% to 2.4%. On the other hand, retail sales added 0.5%, which is good even if the forecast of 1.0% was more significant. In the US, revenue forecast is 0.3% while expenditure is 0.2%. The probability of price reversal is up about 40%.

1TA_xZePW0u7abttkLqRhcvllnqz0LsIiCaw7_J_

YoyZkym7lNHJIP7KM44M5pjt7ghgtNBqZPFgQsOK

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN

Bitcoin has managed to reach $9000 price area quite quickly recently but then failed to keep up the momentum. Thus, it fell drastically towards $8000 area within few hours from the peak touch.

Bitcoin incurred a sudden influx of buying pressure earlier today that allowed it to surge past $9,000, which immediately led many investors to believe that an extension of this surge would lead the crypto to the coveted $10,000 region. Bitcoin's massive volatility has led the aggregated crypto markets to lose their upward momentum, with most major altcoins erasing much of the gains that they had incurred earlier today.

Crypto investors were incredibly disappointed earlier today after Bitcoin surged to highs of $9,000 before it began reeling lower, which has led many analysts to believe that a deeper pullback is imminent. Although the recent flash surge and subsequent drop does appear to spell trouble for the crypto's bulls, BTC may still have some fuel in it that allows it to continue climbing higher.

As of the current scenario, the price is quite impulsive with the bearish momentum. Presently, the price is growing to $8000 area. MACD showing certain Bullish Divergence for a short-period has not managed to sustain the bullish pressure it regained after the recent rejection off the $8000 area. Though the price is bearish, as it remains above $8000 area with a daily close, further upward pressure is expected as the target towards $10,000 is still feasible.

SUPPORT: 7500, 8000

RESISTANCE: 8500, 9000, 9250

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5cf0b3e7b3860.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GOLD regained momentum as expected to push towards $1300. May 31, 2019

Gold has inched up drastically bouncing off the $1276 area recently.

After the back-and-forth on how good the trade war could be for gold, gold is benefiting again from speculation over a possible Fed easing. It could reattempt topping $1,300 as US inflation proves weaker than thought. For the second day in a row, both gold and the dollar rose together, with gold coming into its own after lagging the greenback lately as a hedge to the trade war. As per certain speculators, Gold is holding well, even with the dollar index at over 98, and ignoring that headwind is positive as global economic and political worries persist.

The US personal consumption expenditures price index, released Thursday, showed a 1.0% growth rate last quarter, excluding volatile food and energy components. It was the smallest increase in four years in the so-called PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, and pushed inflation further below the central bank's 2% target. The PCE previously rose at a 1.3% pace. Inflation has lately been running below levels targeted by the Fed, placing its Chairman Jerome Powell again under the scrutiny of President Trump, who's been pressuring for lower interest rates. Powell said recently he believed the soft inflation environment may wind up being transient.

As of the current scenario, the price broke above $1289 price area with a daily close which is heading towards $1300-10 resistance area. MACD line residing above Zero line while having a bullish crossover along the bullish heightening histogram does signal further upward pressure in the coming days. As the price remains above $1265 with a daily close, the impulsive bullish pressure is expected to persist further.

SUPPORT: 1265, 1276

RESISTANCE: 1289-90, 1300-10

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5cf0acd7308b9.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 31, 2019

EUR/USD

On Thursday, the euro fell by only 2 points. US GDP for the 1st quarter in the 2nd assessment, as expected, was revised down from 3.2% to 3.1%, but investors repeated the events, as during the publication of the first assessment, that is, ignored the data. Investors are probably waiting for more recent data on the income and expenses of consumers, which will be released today. The forecast for April revenues is 0.3%, 0.2% for expenses. At the same time, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Chicago region for the current month is expected to grow from 52.6 to 55.1.

The technical picture on the daily and four-hour charts is decreasing. The price develops under the indicator lines of balance and MACD, the Marlin oscillator on both charts in the negative zone.

First, the goal of the decline is 1.1075 – the Fibonacci level of 123.6%, the second target is 1.0985 – the Fibonacci level of 138.2%.

yGuiZJfAcfPzOZ4pbMBZCAXwoLu9FRSTPeOK3VEi

sNH99UNj45MdpyzEiZsBaSUK-3brlH074uHZ5YrL

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on May 31, 2019

GBP/USD

The pound is slowly declining to the nearest target of 1.2530 – the minimum on December 14. After overcoming the first goal, the second one opens – 1.2388, which is the support of the embedded line of the price channel of the weekly timeframe.

Significant events for the British pound did not happen yesterday. The revision of US GDP for the 1st quarter in the 2nd estimate for a decrease from 3.2% to 3.1% was within expectations, the US trade balance for April was slightly worse than the forecast: -72.1 billion dollars against -72.0 billion Today, investors are waiting for data on income and expenditure of consumers in April. The forecast for income is 0.3%, for expenses is 0.2%.

AUdQ2smEY1fzcOly0542cZJ4UwHou5I3k_t67DAA

VFTdw38gPXCLzm2dGX4JaUeWyb1GzBRBgod77nNc

Data on lending in the UK will be released in the afternoon. The net volume of new loans issued to individuals in the UK in April is expected to be 4.6 billion pounds against 4.7 billion of March, but the number of issued permits for mortgage lending may increase from 62 thousand to 64 thousand. Doubtful as permits (some customers will later abandon the loan) leaves US data on consumer spending priority for market participants.

So, the nearest target is 1.2530 and the second target is 1.2388.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 31.05.2019

Crypto Industry News:

According to an official statement, the British government's jurisdiction team began a public consultation to establish the status of cryptographic assets under English private law. In the document, the UK Jurisdiction Task Force (UKJT) found that the existing legal uncertainty regarding the crypto industry was the main reason for the lack investor confidence.

UKJT, one of the six task groups of the LawTech Advisory Group (LTDP), gathers the judiciary and the Legal Commission of England and Wales, as well as technical and legal experts. As the document notes, the UK Financial Supervisory Authority also participated in the initiative as a technical advisor.

The task team stressed that intelligent contracts based on Blockchain "will finally start when market participants and investors will trust them".

As a result, the Task Force started preparing a reliable legal statement on the state of cryptographic assets and smart contracts under English private law to identify key legal issues in this area and provide a basis for widespread use.

When the consultations are closed and analyzed, the UJC will issue a legal statement at the end of the summer. After the publication of the statement, the authorities will assess whether a legislative change is necessary or appropriate.

The Task Force noted that the consultation period would last until June 21, 2019, and on June 4, the public would be invited to discuss the consultation questions.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has entered the corrective cycle after the top of the wave (5) of the wave 3 of the higher degree has been made at the level of $288.61. The market has made the first wave down of the corrective cycle and currently is trading around the level of $250.00. The price is still above the trendline support, but it looks like a matter of time when it will get broken. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $226.17

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $321.20

WR2 - $292.77

WR1 - $283.99

Weekly Pivot - $254.33

WS1 - $241.65

WS2 - $213.82

WS3 - $203.55

Trading Recommendations:

The up cycle has been completed so the best strategy is to close all of the buy orders and take the profits off the table. The market is now developing the correction, so the best strategy now is to stay aside until the correction is completed. Please pay attention to the key support/resistance levels and the price behavior on these levels as well.

analytics5cf0baf0410ca.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

May 31, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

analytics5cf0ba554b0cf.jpg

Since January 10, the EURUSD pair has been moving within the depicted channel with slight bearish tendency.

Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15.

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed on April 23.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1175 (a previous weekly bottom which has been holding prices above for a while)

On May 17-20, a bearish breakdown below 1.1175 was temporarily achieved.

As expected, further bearish decline was expected towards 1.1115. This is where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated by the end of last week on Thursday bringing the EURUSD pair back above 1.1175.

Recently, The EURUSD pair was trapped between the depicted price zones (1.1150-1.1235) until this week on Tuesday when another bearish breakdown was demonstrated below 1.1150.

This should enhance the bearish side of the market towards 1.1115. However, conservative traders should stay out of the market until long-term outlook is determined.

Trade recommendations :

Intraday traders should look for another bullish breakout above 1.1175 as a valid BUY signal.

T/P level to be located around 1.1240. Stop loss should be placed below 1.1150.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 31.05.2019

Crypto Industry News:

Germany is planning to introduce draft legislation authorizing Blockchain bonds this summer, the local business newspaper reported.

Referring to Thomas Heilmann, Blockchain's dedicated coalition correspondent, the publication revealed that the new legislation has already gained momentum, considering the existence of a summary document. According to Heilmann, it is both necessary and beneficial for Germany to take Blockchain to support regulation.

Germany traditionally has a conservative position on both Blockchain and cryptocurrency. The country also shows a cautious approach towards Bitcoins, and in particular to other tokens. This situation has recently begun to change with the increasing awareness of the authorities about evolving trends.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has completed the five waves impulsive progression to the upside with the recent spike up to the level of $9,070 and this is the top for the wave 5 of the wave (5) of the wave 3 of the higher degree. It means the market has entered the corrective cycle and the first wave down in this cycle has been just made. The next target for bears is the trendline support test around the level of $7,948. The key support is still seen at the level of $7,484.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10467

WR2 - $9524

WR1 - $9190

Weekly Pivot - $8239

WS1 - $7860

WS2 - $6970

WS3 - $6557

Trading Recommendations:

The up cycle has been completed so the best strategy is to close all of the buy orders and take the profits off the table. The market is now developing the correction, so the best strategy now is to stay aside until the correction is completed. Please pay attention to the key support/resistance levels and the price behavior on these levels as well.

analytics5cf0b9afd80f2.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

May 31, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

analytics5cf0b782cf4b1.jpg

On March 29, a visit towards the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the newly-established bearish movement channel) could bring the GBPUSD pair again towards the upper limit of the minor bearish channel around (1.3160-1.3180).

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish with intermediate-term bearish targets projected towards 1.2900 and 1.2850.

On April 26, another bullish pullback was initiated towards 1.3000 (the same bottom of March 29) which has been breached to the upside until May 13 when a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern was demonstrated on the H4 chart with neckline located around 1.2980-1.3020.

Bearish persistence below 1.2980 enhanced further bearish decline.

Initial bearish Targets were already reached around 1.2900-1.2870 (the backside of the broken channel) which failed to provide any bullish support for the GBPUSD pair.

Further bearish decline was demonstrated towards the lower limit of the long-term channel around (1.2700-1.2650).

The GBPUSD pair looks oversold around the current price levels (1.2650-1.2600). That's why, SELL signals shouldn't be considered at such low prices.

On the other hand, bullish persistence above 1.2650 and 1.2750 is needed to enhance the bullish side of the market towards 1.2870 (Bottom of April 26).

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for another bullish pullback towards 1.2870-1.2905 (newly-established supply zone) to look for valid sell entries. S/L should be placed above 1.2950.

Counter-trend traders can consider any bullish breakout above 1.2650 as a valid signal to look for BUY entries.

T/P level to be located around 1.2750 and 1.2820. S/L to be located below 1.2600.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 31.05.2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair is getting ready to test the key technical support at the level of 1.1108 and the result might be severe if the bears will break through this level. The momentum is still weak and negative, but so are the market conditions (extremely oversold). Despite these conditions, the price might make another lower low before any meaningful bounce will occur. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1027.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1355

WR2 - 1.2080

WR1 - 1.1254

Weekly Pivot - 1.1180

WS1 - 1.1146

WS2 - 1.1076

WS3 - 1.1043

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to sell the up move near the technical resistance around the level of 1.1174. All the open sell orders should set the take profit at the level of 1.1111. The larger timeframe trend is still down, so the trade at the short term timeframe will be in line with the downtrend.

analytics5cf0b643418c8.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 31.05.2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made another lower low at the level of 1.2580 as the downtrend continues. The larger timeframe trend remains down, but there is the first sign of a possible trend reversal which is a Hammer candlestick pattern made at the recent low. In order to bounce or reverse the trend, the bulls would have to push the prices above the technical resistance at the level of 1.2647 and then 1.2683. Otherwise, the downtrend will continue with the nearest target at the level of 1.2500.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3009

WR2 - 1.2910

WR1 - 1.2801

Weekly Pivot - 1.2631

WS1 - 1.2607

WS2 - 1.2502

WS3 - 1.2401

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to sell the up move near the technical resistance around the level of 1.2755. The larger timeframe trend is still down, so the trade at the short term timeframe will be in line with the downtrend. The target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2500.

analytics5cf0b4e98a19c.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, May 31, 2019

analytics5cf09df5928f8.jpg

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Italian Prelim CPI m/m, German Prelim CPI m/m, and German Retail Sales m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Chicago PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1185. Strong Resistance: 1.1179. Original Resistance: 1.1168. Inner Sell Area: 1.1157. Target Inner Area: 1.1131. Inner Buy Area: 1.1105. Original Support: 1.1094. Strong Support: 1.1083. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1077. (Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, May 31, 2019

analytics5cf09d7442db2.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the Housing Starts y/y, Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales y/y, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, Unemployment Rate, and Tokyo Core CPI y/y. The US will also publish some economic data such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Chicago PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 109.91. Resistance. 2: 109.70. Resistance. 1: 109.48. Support. 1: 109.21. Support. 2: 109.00. Support. 3: 108.78. (Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD h1. Options for the development of the movement from May 31, 2019 Analysis of APLs & ZUP

Minuette ( h1 )

Great Britain pound vs US dollar

____________________

The development of the movement of the GBP / USD currency pair from May 31, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the range breakdown:

-> resistance level 1.2635 (initial SSL line of the Micro operational scale forks );

-> support level 1.2615 (starting line SSL is for Minuette operating scale forks ).

____________________

The development perspective of the upward movement (buy)

The breakdown of resistance level of 1.2635 ( SSL Micro initial line ) -> a variant of the development of GBP / USD movement to the borders of the 1/2 Median Line channel ( 1.2665 <-> 1.2682 <-> 1.2700 ) and the equilibrium zone ( 1.2710 <-> 1.2737 <-> 1.2762 ) Micro operational scale forks.

Details are shown on the chart .

____________________

Downward Move

Development Perspective (sell)

The breakdown of support level of 1.2615 ( SSL Minuette start line ) is followed by updating the local minimum of 1.2604, it will determine the possibility for a continuation of the downward movement of GBP / USD to the aims -> Control line LTL ( 1.2530 ) Fork operational scale Minuette <-> warning line UTL38.2 Minuette ( 1.2500 ).

Details are shown on the chart .

____________________

The review was compiled without regard to the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

HoPdfn6WFsMkkjcpFmMFvWiGMRMHFqbwfq5eRLya

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD h1. Options for the development of the movement from May 31, 2019 Analysis of APLs & ZUP

Minuette ( h1 )

Euro vs US Dollar

____________________

Range of Breakdown Direction :

-> resistance level 1.1145 (starting line SSL for the Micro operational scale forks);

-> support level of 1.1130 (starting line SSL is for Minuette operation scale forks);

and will determine the development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from May 31, 2019

____________________

The development perspective of the upward movement (buy) A

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1145 (the initial SSL Micro line ) -> EUR / USD movement will be directed to the borders of 1/2 channels. Median Line will take an operating scale -> Minuette ( 1.1150 <-> 1.1167 <-> 1.1185 ) and Micro ( 1.1167 <-> 1.1180 <-> 1.1192 ), with the prospect of reaching the limits of the equilibrium zones of the same operational scale forks -> Micro ( 1.1210 <-> 1.1230 <-> 1.1250 ) and Minuette ( 1.1210 <-> 1.1235 <-> 1.1257 ).

Details are shown on the chart .

____________________

Development perspective of the downward movement (sell)

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1130 ( SSL Minuette start line) with the subsequent updating of the local minimum 1.1124 will make it relevant to continue the development of the downward movement of the single European currency to the targets -> minimum 1.1107 <-> control line LTL ( 1.1095) Minuette operational scale forks <-> warning line UWL61.8 Minuette (1.1075 ).

Details are shown on the chart .

____________________

The review was compiled without regard to the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

TS49jXmZZngqO6pLQ26moaGhS1jqLhD7-ApwV5XA

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/JPY approaching support, big potential bounce coming!

analytics5cf091b3a50a1.png

Price is approaching our first support level.

Entry : 137.65

Why it's good : Horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 136.29

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 139.61

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension

analytics5cf08f3822957.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/JPY approaching support, big potential bounce coming!

Price is approaching our first support level.

Entry : 137.65

Why it's good : Horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 136.29

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 139.61

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension

analytics5cf08f3822957.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD testing support, potential breakout!

analytics5cf08ea61bb08.jpg

Price is testing its 1st support where we have a slight bias that it still has more downside potential. If it breaks past its 1st support, we expect a further move down to its 2nd support.

Entry : 0.6900

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support

Stop Loss : 0.6932

Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 0.6871

Why it's good : Horizontal swing low support, 100% Fibonacci extension

analytics5cf08e7729379.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on May 31

Forecast for May 31:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

lnG63g56WOblvZTt_oGXh9_QIHixpww2oWMG4PpA

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1171, 1.1157, 1.1146, 1.1123, 1.1115, 1.1099, 1.1080 and 1.1067. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward structure of May 27. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.1123 - 1.1115. In this case, the target is 1.1099. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1099 will lead to movement to the level of 1.1080. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1067, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation in the corridor of 1.1080 - 1.1067.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range 1.1146 - 1.1157. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1171. This level is a key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward structure of May 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1146 Take profit: 1.1156

Buy 1.1158 Take profit: 1.1170

Sell: 1.1115 Take profit: 1.1100

Sell: 1.1097 Take profit: 1.1083

dpDSc-K4mAh8vExCYhGZwEtge_cab3QRC3t2w59V

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2715, 1.2667, 1.2637, 1.2553, 1.2478 and 1.2428. Here, the continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown at 1.2553. In this case, the goal is 1.2478. We consider the level of 1.2428 to be a potential value for the bottom. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the corridor 1.2478 - 1.2428, as well as a departure to a correction.

Short-term uptrend is possible in the corridor 1.2637 - 1.2667. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.2715. This level is a key support for the downward structure. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward structure of May 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2637 Take profit: 1.2666

Buy: 1.2668 Take profit: 1.2715

Sell: 1.2550 Take profit: 1.2480

Sell: 1.2476 Take profit: 1.2428

K6XZ9I4rKLLi3j8XOuYI7ahv4vmleh-ZwDEmFsll

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0137, 1.0118, 1.0094, 1.0082, 1.0057, 1.0048 and 1.0034. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure of May 24. Short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor 1.0082 - 1.0094. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 1.0118. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 1.0137. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of 1.0120.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1.0057 - 1.0048. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.0034. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of May 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 1.0082 Take profit: 1.0094

Buy : 1.0096 Take profit: 1.0118

Sell: 1.0057 Take profit: 1.0048

Sell: 1.0046 Take profit: 1.0036

xYCeoXsFDpenOrtSCtgNq4G185JdQjItmS8jTQQ1

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.21, 109.94, 109.73, 109.14, 108.98, 108.51 and 108.18. Here, the price forms the medium-term initial conditions for the downward cycle of May 21. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 109.14 - 108.98. In this case, the goal is 108.51. We expect consolidation near this level. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 108.18, after reaching which, we expect a possible rollback to the correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 109.73 - 109.94. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 110.21. This level is a key support for the downward cycle.

The main trend: the formation of medium-term initial conditions for the downward cycle of May 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.73 Take profit: 109.92

Buy: 109.95 Take profit: 110.20

Sell: 108.98 Take profit: 108.55

Sell: 108.48 Take profit: 108.20

-09typjH37fOuhJj-weZpUcIfiX0hKk_ca6_8wb4

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3651, 1.3611, 1.3556, 1.3491, 1.3464 and 1.3428. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure of May 22. Short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor 1.3534 - 1.3556. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 1.3611. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 1.3651, after reaching which, we expect to go into correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1.3491 - 1.3464. Breaking the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.3428. This level is a key support to the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of May 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3534 Take profit: 1.3555

Buy : 1.3558 Take profit: 1.3610

Sell: 1.3490 Take profit: 1.3466

Sell: 1.3462 Take profit: 1.3433

aUB1s4KfdVZhWpxw1l0LkAQYCTZtM5m1tg7FHd4H

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7013, 0.6994, 0.6965, 0.6955, 0.6941, 0.6910, 0.6897, 0.6882 and 0.6863. Here, the price forms the expressed initial conditions for the top of May 23. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown 0.6941. Here, the first goal is 0.6955. Price consolidation is found near this level. The price passage of the noise range of 0.6955 - 0.6965 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 0.6994. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 0.7013, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.6910 - 0.6897. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged movement. Here, the target is 0.6882. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of May 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6941 Take profit: 0.6955

Buy: 0.6967 Take profit: 0.6992

Sell : 0.6910 Take profit : 0.6898

Sell: 0.6895 Take profit: 0.6884

F9Hple4KHNvcQFBqIqBfXHIPb_ot_lPqOPl477zH

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.72, 122.42, 122.23, 121.76, 121.54, 120.96 and 120.59. Here, we are following the development of the mid-term downward structure of May 21. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 121.76 - 121.54. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 120.96. For the potential value at the bottom, we consider the level of 120.59, after reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the correction.

Short-term uptrend is possible in the corridor 122.23 - 122.42. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 122.72. This level is a key support for the downward structure. Before it, we expect clearance of the expressed initial conditions to the top.

The main trend is a mid-term downward structure of May 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 122.23 Take profit: 122.40

Buy: 122.44 Take profit: 122.70

Sell: 121.76 Take profit: 121.56

Sell: 121.50 Take profit: 121.00

nBMeQAy4g-epzX3jD5UTJ-1iXpZnzBXpJoTfvB90

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 139.14, 138.76, 138.24, 137.49, 136.85 and 136.00. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of May 21. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level 137.49. In this case, the target is 136..85, near which the price consolidation is possible. Breakdown at level 136.85 will allow to count on the movement to the potential value - 136.00, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Care in the correction is possible after the breakdown of 138.24. In this case, the first target is 138.76. In the corridor 138.76 - 139.14, we expect a short-term upward movement. The level 139.14 is a key support at the bottom. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is a local downward structure of May 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 138.25 Take profit: 138.74

Buy: 138.76 Take profit: 139.14

Sell: 137.46 Take profit: 136.90

Sell: 136.80 Take profit: 136.10

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY reversed off key resistance, a drop is possible!

analytics5cf08d61b3dc6.jpg

USDJPY reversed off key resistance, a drop to first support is possible

Entry: 109.802

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance

Stop Loss : 110.67

Why it's good :100% Fibonacci extension,50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 108.63

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support

analytics5cf08d360aaf5.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Game of thrones in the EU: Germany's loss will win the Euro

The results of the elections to the European Parliament were quite unexpected, at least in several aspects. First, the popularity of right-wing political forces in the EU countries has been greatly exaggerated - populists still remain on the margins of the political life of Europe. But the "traditional" European parties also lost their points: for the first time in the entire history of the European Parliament, the European Popular Party and the Social Democrats no longer have an absolute majority. In this convocation of parliament, they cannot create a coalition and, consequently, determine personnel policy in the power structure of the bodies of the European Union. In an unexpected way, this fact can have a positive effect on the positions of the single currency, which has recently been going through hard times.

ODo6e5sU5Sn__FpwPMim-SXVED2PmTlP7oPQ-hCM

Long before the parliamentary elections, the press "walked" that Berlin would lobby for the post of the head of the European Commission representative of its state, namely the candidate of the European People's Party, Manfred Weber. For the sake of this post, Angela Merkel was ready to "exchange" the position of head of the ECB. Although for several years, the market was confident that the Germans would lobby for the position of head of the European Central Bank Jens Weidmann, who now heads the Bundesbank and is on the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank. This has been discussed for a long time - both among bank analysts and among economic observers. All these rumors were based on the fact that the Germans, in principle, are unhappy with the policies implemented by Mario Draghi.

By the way, now this is hardly remembered, but seven years ago, when the eurozone was experiencing the most acute phase of the crisis, some German politicians called Draghi a "European counterfeiter". In their opinion, the head of the ECB then illegally "turned on the printing press", since the redemption of bonds violated a law prohibiting the European regulator to directly finance governments. Of course, most economists in Germany and representatives of business groups were not so radical in their statements - but many of them publicly criticized and still criticize the current head of the ECB for their soft policy.

Jens Weidmann himself also repeatedly spoke of the need for a gradual tightening of monetary policy. Even in the present conditions, when the main economic indicators of the eurozone have slowed down, it maintains a fairly "hawkish" position. Just two weeks ago, he stated that there was no need to postpone the normalization of the policy, "if forecasts allow it to be done". In addition, Weidmann has always been an open opponent of the mechanism of redemption of bonds and other incentives from the ECB. Of course, if Italy brings the situation to a debt crisis, the regulator will have to return to unconventional measures, but for Weidmann, it will be a difficult decision because of his position. He often repeats the phrase that markets should not underestimate the risks of a very soft monetary policy. By the way, In early April, Mario Draghi himself emphasized the presence of side effects of the low stakes. Following this statement, an open appeal appeared from German bankers who called on the European Central Bank to introduce a differential rate on deposits - but the ECB subsequently rejected this idea. If Weidmann will stand at the helm of the Central Bank, these intentions may regain their relevance, while the likelihood of monetary policy easing will decrease significantly (I believe that he will resort to such measures only as a last resort).

CIofGncZ3qMBNfaobobEn24eo8wNwVLTnPwTmOJN

Thus, the very fact of the appointment of Jens Weidmann as head of the ECB will provide background support for the European currency. Considering how the political struggle unfolds for key positions in the EU structure, it can be assumed that the chances of the Germans have increased in many ways. As mentioned above, the German Chancellor was ready to "exchange" the position of the head of the ECB for the position of head of the European Commission, which is now headed by the representative of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker. But the results of the elections to the European Parliament do not allow the Germans to apply for this post: the center-right of the EPP and the center-left of the group of socialists and democrats do not have 50 votes for the majority to determine who should lead the European Commission (in this case the German Manfred Weber).

But the liberals (ALDE) achieved good results in the elections, significantly strengthening their positions and becoming, in fact, the owners of the "Golden share" (with them, the ENB and the socialists can form a majority). That is why Weber's chances of leading the EC are now quite low - EU leaders have been actively negotiating other candidates in recent days. According to experts, this could be the representative of Denmark Margrethe Vestager (the most likely candidate) or the current first deputy of Jean-Claude Juncker, the Dutchman Frans Timmermans. In turn, the post of head of the ECB can become a "consolation prize" for Germany, which nevertheless, retains its influence on the political Olympus of the EU. If further events will unfold under this scenario, the euro will receive some support.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. Southern Trend Coalition: China, Brexit and Italy

Anti-risk sentiment is growing in the foreign exchange market, reflecting the increasing geopolitical tensions in the world. China and the United States entered the trade clinch. The likelihood of a "tough" Brexit is also growing every day, and this week, there is information about the upcoming sanctions against Britain, Germany and France from the United States for the possible use of the INSTEX financial mechanism. Against the background of such a gloomy fundamental picture, the American currency feels more than confident: the dollar index has updated the local maximum yesterday, at the level of 98.16. But on the contrary, the single currency loses its points, being under additional pressure of the political conflict between Rome and Brussels.

Nevertheless, EUR/USD bears cannot take full advantage of the strong greenback. Sellers are strenuously pulling the pair to the base of the 11th figure, to an annual minimum of 1,1105, which is a "concurrent" level of support. But as soon as the price approaches the area of key targets, the southern impulse fades away, and buyers in turn seized the initiative. The same thing happened yesterday: the US base PCE, for the first quarter of this year, was revised downward, as well as the GDP indicator. This fact has cooled the fervor of the sellers, and the pair slowed down its fall.

2SfsrZe9GxrUWeaFVOuWcUen_sHoEL3eiuc63M90

Of course, a trend reversal is out of the question: the maximum that the EUR/USD bulls are capable of right now is a modest correction within 40-60 points. In a more global aspect, buyers of the pair need to stay above the 10th figure in order to avoid falling into price levels for 2015-2016 (that is, in the range of 1.04-1.08). All the other desires of the bulls of the pair are now impossible to fulfill: a trend reversal is possible only if China and the US sit down again at the negotiating table, and the risk of a tough Brexit will be leveled at least by another delay. But so far, the situation has only worsened - both in the sphere of US-China relations, and in the sphere of the prospects for the "divorce process of Britain with the EU.

Thus, it became known that China has suspended purchases of soybeans in the United States, thereby confirming the next round of escalation of the trade conflict between the countries. In a sense, this is a momentous event, given the "background" of this issue. Indeed, at the beginning of the year, the Chinese agreed to increase the volume of purchases of American agricultural products (soybeans, corn and wheat) only as a compromise. Beijing promised to purchase products of this category for a total amount of up to $ 30 billion: as a result, these volumes should have exceeded the "pre-war" figures. It was a good sign for those who expected to conclude a trade deal between the superpowers. This sign has acquired a negative value: the Chinese have once again confirmed their readiness to further escalate the conflict.

And here, it is worth recalling that according to rumors circulated, China is preparing to deliver a more significant blow to the United States by restricting or banning the export of rare earth metals. The largest consumers of rare-earth metals include American industrial companies that develop not only innovative technologies, but also military equipment. In turn, China accounts for about 80% of the global supply of rare earth metals. Does Beijing use such a powerful Trump card in a protracted trade conflict? The experts do not have a common opinion on this issue, however, the PRC leader has already hinted rather clearly at such an opportunity, suddenly visiting one of the enterprises for processing RMP on a working visit.

In addition to the global trade war, the pair EUR/USD are under pressure from more "local" problems. It's about Brexit and the political conflict between Rome and Brussels. During the other day, the market was optimistic about the idea of the Irish Prime Minister that the date of Brexit could be rescheduled. According to him, if on the other side of the scale there is a "hard" Brexit, then it is advisable for the European Union to postpone the British release date from the Alliance from October 31 to a later date. Such an idea was liked by traders, because at this rate, the parties can reach even the next general parliamentary elections in Britain, which Laborists can win.

lMGBdeYYmhcvjJdF3LwAopi8hz25z3OImzmjEaxz

But yesterday, there was information that Germany will not agree to such a scenario. To be more precise, the Germans put forward the condition of London: either the British announce the holding of a second referendum, or hold general special elections this fall - in October or November. Only in this case will Germany agree to another postponement of Brexit. Obviously, if Boris Johnson (who is still leading in the political race) becomes the next prime minister, he will not agree to this scenario. Consequently, the "hard" Brexit again loomed on the horizon with all the ensuing consequences.

Thus, the fundamental background is still conducive to testing the price minima of this year - bears are quite able to touch the mark of 1.1105. But to enter the 10th figure (and even more so to consolidate in this area), sellers need a strong informational occasion. Therefore, short positions in a pair at the base of the 11th figure look extremely risky, given the high probability of corrective pullback.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for Gold for May 30, 2019

Gold price has broken above the short-term resistance level of $1,288 and bulls should now expect at least a move towards the major resistance area of $1,294-$1,300. Breaking above this major resistance will have implications for the medium-term trend which remains bearish after topping back in February.

analytics5cf0360e831ca.png

Red rectangle - short-term resistance (broken)

Blue rectangle -short-term target

Black line - major resistance trend line

Gold price has support at today's lows at $1,275. Short-term resistance and previous highs at $1,288 are broken and we now expect price to move higher towards the blue rectangle and the major downward sloping trend line resistance at $1,294-$1,300 area. Bears remain in control of the medium-term trend and as long as price is below $1,300 bulls need to be very cautious.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for May, 30.2019

Bitcoin did nice flash up and reject from strong resistance of $8.910. The rejection of the round number $9.00 is a good sign that aggressive sellers entered the market.

analytics5cf01f6d0f2d9.jpg

White horizontal line – Major resistance

Red horizontal line 1- Support 1

Red horizontal line 2 – Support 2

BTC did successful test and reject of the key resistance and round number at $9.000, which is strong sign of the weakness. We found that key rising trendline-support to be very important for further downside. You can watch for potential breakout of the trendline to confirm further downside. Downward references are set at $7.856 and $7.425. Key resistance remains at $9.000.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

May 30, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

analytics5cf014443808c.jpg

Since January 10, the EURUSD pair has been moving within the depicted channel with slight bearish tendency.

Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15.

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed on April 23.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1175 (a previous weekly bottom which has been holding prices above for a while)

On May 17-20, a bearish breakdown below 1.1175 was temporarily achieved.

As expected, further bearish decline was expected towards 1.1115. This is where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated by the end of last Thursday's consolidations bringing the EURUSD pair back above 1.1175.

Recently, The EURUSD pair was trapped between the depicted price zones (1.1150-1.1235) until Tuesday when another bearish breakdown was demonstrated below 1.1150.

This should enhance the bearish side of the market towards 1.1115. However, conservative traders should stay out of the market until long-term outlook is determined.

Trade recommendations :

Intraday traders should look for another bullish breakout above 1.1175 as a valid BUY signal.

T/P level to be located around 1.1240. Stop loss should be placed below 1.1150.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

May 30, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

analytics5cf000086910c.jpg

On March 29, a visit towards the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the newly-established bearish movement channel) could bring the GBPUSD pair again towards the upper limit of the minor bearish channel around (1.3160-1.3180).

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish with intermediate-term bearish targets projected towards 1.2900 and 1.2850.

On April 26, another bullish pullback was initiated towards 1.3000 (the same bottom of March 29) which has been breached to the upside until May 13 when a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern was demonstrated on the H4 chart with neckline located around 1.2980-1.3020.

Bearish persistence below 1.2980 enhanced further bearish decline.

Initial bearish Targets were already reached around 1.2900-1.2870 (the backside of the broken channel) which failed to provide any bullish support for the pair.

Further bearish decline was demonstrated towards the lower limit of the long-term channel around (1.2700-1.2650).

The GBPUSD pair looks oversold around the current price levels (1.2650-1.2600). That's why, SELL signals shouldn't be considered at such low prices.

On the other hand, bullish persistence above 1.2650 and 1.2750 should be achieved to enhance the bullish side of the market initially towards 1.2870 (Bottom of April 26).

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for another bullish pullback towards 1.2870-1.2905 (newly-established supply zone) to look for valid sell entries. S/L should be placed above 1.2950.

Counter-trend traders can consider any bullish breakout above 1.2650 as a valid signal to look for BUY entries.

T/P level to be located around 1.2750 and 1.2820. S/L to be located below 1.2620.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for May 05/30.219

EUR/USD price has been trading downwards. The price did test and reject from the yesterday's low at 1.1124. EUR is trading near the important support at 1.1108 and you should watch for buying opportunities.

analytics5ceffbafb2431.jpg

White rectangle – Support

Red horizontal line 1- Resistance 1

Red horizontal line 2 – Resistance 2

EUR/USD did successful test and reject of the support at 1.1115, which is strong sign of the strength. We found also the bullish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of the strength. We expect potential test of the middle bolinger line at 1.1161 and even test of 1.1194 in the next period. As long as the EUR is trading abot the support at 1.1110, we are watching for buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Fed is holding on with its last strength not to lower rates

_I2OkuIiaka04s_ZBqzJeLRclc4bXuxcTK1S7pvF

The United States and China continue to exchange "courtesies." On Thursday, Beijing once again added fuel to the fire, comparing Washington's position with "economic terrorism." Meanwhile, the date of the next Fed meeting is approaching, and the regulator is in an extremely difficult situation due to the escalation of the trade war, which runs the risk of becoming a full-scale one.

The Fed views trade dispute as one of the serious risks to the growth of the US economy. It is becoming increasingly difficult for financial officials to maintain a neutral stance with regard to monetary policy. Judging by the futures on the Fed rate, the markets are now estimating the probability of lower interest rates by 25 bp by September, more than 50%.

If the risks are justified and GDP growth begins to slow, the Fed will have to act more rapidly than in past economic downturns. The fact is that short-term rates are in the historically low range of 2.25% – 2.50%. Before starting to soften the policy, the Central Bank will want to make sure that the rate of growth slowdown exceeds expectations. Evidence of a more serious decline could be reports on the trust of companies and consumers, as well as indicators of costs and hiring.

It is not excluded that the Fed will start to act ahead of schedule, since the trade war may flare up sharply, and the DKP will be set up incorrectly. Officials are closely following the development of trade negotiations between the United States and China, but they do not give an indication, as well as signals about a likely change in policy.

It is worth noting that too frequent changes in rates can lead to negative consequences in the form of increased volatility and uncertainty in the prospects for markets and the economy as a whole. At the same time, there are concerns that the wait-and-see attitude of the American Central Bank is risky.

"The wait-and-see attitude and intention to see strong evidence of weakening activity means that the fed will begin to mitigate too late, returning to the usual manner and forgetting the lessons learned in January, and will create all conditions for another rate cut," experts write.

The Fed meeting was completed on a positive note. Jerome Powell dispelled market expectations about lowering rates this year, stressing that the recent easing of inflation is a temporary factor. However, since that time, there have been some changes. Donald Trump raised import duties on Chinese goods worth $200 billion from 10% to 25%, further heightening the situation. Beijing did not keep it waiting long and delivered retaliatory measures.

At the moment, the rise in global GDP is of concern, while the US economy is balancing between sharply deteriorated indicators and those that are between growth and decline.

Trade and production data indicate a more serious decline in company sentiment and a reduction in capital investment than previously expected. The preliminary index of US industrial production, according to IHS Markit, fell to 50.6 in May from 52.6 in April, reaching the lowest level since September 2009. The index of activity in the services sector fell to a three-year low of 50.9, previously it was at around 53.

What will happen to the dollar?

The dollar against the basket of the main competitors is held near 2-year highs. It is helped by the status of the world reserve currency, which tends to attract attention during periods of market turmoil and political tension. The dollar continues to strengthen, including due to the weakness of the euro, suffering from a new political clash between Italy and the EU and the pound, falling on news regarding Brexit.

On Thursday, the US currency did not seem to notice the revised down GDP for the first quarter and the PCE index, which is closely monitored by the fed in assessing inflation risks.

KHktpKgPFGaCFo7F-GblfSYzU-icjID4uyZs7c9c

In the period from January to March, the American economy expanded by 3.1% in terms of annual rates, while previously it was about 3.2%. The PCE climbed 1% – the lowest rate since the fourth quarter of 2015, following a 1.8% increase in the previous quarter. The first estimate indicated an increase of 1.3%.

Experts from Julius Baer believe that the upward trend of the dollar ends. This is due to changes in the US economy in terms of GDP dynamics. America is beginning to lose its advantage over other countries and the growth of the global economy as a whole.

JPMorgan also spoke negatively against the dollar. The bank believes that the Fed will have to soften monetary policy. The escalation of the trade conflict between Beijing and Washington has a negative effect on the economic prospects of the States. It is expected that in the second quarter growth will be only 1%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin to hit $10,000 soon. May 30, 2019

The uptrend of Bitcoin continued after a retreat towards the $8,500 area with a daily close. At the moment, the price is pushing higher, however, being restrained by the dynamic support level of 20 EMA.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $8,700, up significantly from the daily lows of just above $8,400 that were set last night. Analysts say that the range between $8,200 and $8,400 is a key support zone that BTC must not cross in order for its upward momentum to remain.

After two months of a relieving rally, BTC prices are pulling back. It's nothing new. Extended gains, rallies and cool offs are typical in healthy markets, and Bitcoin is no exception. Besides, there is nothing to worry about considering significant developments and shifting sentiment in the last few years. Moreover, changing political stands could thrust Bitcoin into the scene. Gradually, BTC will be more than a medium of exchange but a settlement layer and a store of value. By the end of the year, BTC is anticipated to soar above $20,000, to prices unseen before.

On the contrary, one strong indicator that altcoins are about to make a revival is the fall in Bitcoin market dominance. Today it has fallen back to 55.3 percent, its lowest level since the beginning of the month. BTC dominance is still up compared to earlier this year but the slow decline could be a sign of altcoin resurgence.

As for the current scenario, BTC continues its uptrend aiming the $9,000 area again. A breakout above this level with a daily close is to lead the price higher towards the $10,000 psychological level. As the price remains above $8,000 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to remain.

SUPPORT: 8,000/8,400/8,500

RESISTANCE: 9,000/9,250/9,500/10,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5cefae46ebbcc.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for May, 30.2019

Gold price has been trading downwards. The price did hit our down target from yesterday at $1.275 and did flip up, which is sign of the reversal. Gold is very strong today and you should watch for buying on the dips.

analytics5cefe8ebe2914.jpg

Red horizontal line – Resistance 1

Red horizontal line 2- Resistance 2

White line – Broken resistance trendline

Gold did strong test and reject from of the $1.275, which is strong sign of revesal. Bullish momentum is present and you should watch only for buying opportuntiies.As long as Gold is trading above the $1.275, we will be bullish. Resistance levels are seen at the price of $1.284 and $1.286.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The appointment of Jens Weidmann as head of the ECB will cause a rally of euro

U7yJXLmJCSDcavLwA5epMgfSUA4Dal8EGPsiAVwH

As soon as the elections to the European Parliament were over, the struggle for the highest posts of the European leadership began.

It is assumed that the main opposition will unfold between Germany and France, which seek to occupy a leading position in the block.

The fate of the euro will depend on who will head the ECB, the protege of Angela Merkel or Emmanuel Macron.

One of the potential candidates for this position is Jens Weidmann, the President of the German Federal Bank, who is known for his "hawkish" views.

Previously, he openly opposed the ECB's stimulating measures, purchases of sovereign bonds by the regulator and called for the normalization of monetary policy (an increase in interest rates).

Such a candidate represents the most striking contrast with the policy of the current ECB President Mario Draghi.

According to experts, the appointment of J. Weidmann to the position of President of the ECB will help strengthen the euro.

Moreover, the very presence of a German at the helm of the European Central Bank can help prevent the main risk to the stability of the euro – the confrontation between Rome and Brussels over the budget deficit and the level of debt. On Tuesday, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini announced his intention to make the ECB a guarantor of public debt. Most likely, this initiative will break up about the team of Jens Weidmann and former Spanish Minister of Finance Luis de Guindos, who is now the vice-chairman of the ECB. In his previous position, he proved willingness to take unpopular austerity measures.

Thus, if the post of head of the ECB will take J. Weidmann, then the mood of the "bulls" on the euro will seriously improve.

However, it is unlikely that the regulator will sit idly until October of this year, when Mario Draghi resigns. In June, the Central Bank should announce the details of the long-term refinancing program (LTRO). If the loan rate is set at -2%, which is actually an effective subsidy of banks, interest in the program can be very high. At the same time, the ECB may raise the rate on deposits from the current -0.4% in order to attract investors. Such a policy seems to be more effective than quantitative easing (QE).

Even a hint at an earlier time for increasing the deposit rate than the market expects will be a catalyst for the growth of the euro.

In the meantime, the EUR/USD pair is forced to retreat to the south due to the resuscitation of political risks in the EU and disappointing statistics for the eurozone.

For the third time in the last month, EUR/USD is testing support at 1.113. It is assumed that the success of the "bears" in this event will open the way for the pair to 1.1, and failure will allow it to develop consolidation in the range of 1.113-1.1265.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 30, 2019

analytics5cefe49bd0329.png

Overview: The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of weakness following a breakout of the lowest level of 0.6571. On the H1 chart, the level of 0.6571 coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor resistance today. Since the trend is below the 38.2% Fibonacci level, the market is still in a downtrend. However, the resistance is seen at the level of 0.6571. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Therefore, resistance will be found at the level of 0.6571 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6500. If the trend breaks the first supprt at 0.6500, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the levels 0.6469 and 0.6424.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 30, 2019

analytics5cefe0fdf244a.png

Overview:

The pivot point: 1.3457.

The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3457. The pair rose from the level of 1.3457 (the level of 1.3457 coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 1.3505. But it rebounded from the top pf 1.3505 to 1.3477. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.3457 followed by 1.3425, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 1.3457. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3505 and 1.3457; for that we expect a range of 48 pips (1.3505 - 1.3457). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.3505. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.3505, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at the levels of 1.3532 and 1.3560. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3425.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com