Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 16, 2018

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bearish outlook. The pair has returned to levels above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, but remains capped by the key resistance at 107.65. Meanwhile, the relative strength index has returned to levels above the neutrality level of 50, indicating that upward momentum could push the pair higher. As long as the key resistance at 107.65 is not surpassed, intraday bearishness persists, and the pair could pull back to 107.05 on the downside.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 107.65, take profit at 107.05.

Resistance levels: 107.80, 108, and 108.50

Support levels: 107.05, 106.80, and 106.50.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 16, 2018

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair retreated and broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the death cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified. The relative strength index is below it neutrality level at 50. Therefore, as long as 0.9640 holds on the upside, a further decline to 0.9580 and even to 0.9550 seems more likely to occur.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 0.9640, take profit at 0.9580.

Resistance levels: 0.9670, 0.9695, and 0.9740

Support levels: 0.9580, 0.9550, and 0.9500.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 16, 2018

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair rebounded from 152.60 and broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is bullish and calls for a further upside. To conclude, as long as 152.60 holds on the downside, look for a new rise with targets at 152.35 and 151.90 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 153.85, 154.25, and 155

Support levels: 152.35, 151.90, and 151.00.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for April 16, 2018

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY pair is bearish in the long-term, and now bullish in the short-term. It has gained roughly 250 pips this month, and it can gain another 250 pips before the end of the month. That is something that can bring about a long-term bullish outlook on the market as it goes through the supply zones at 133.00, 133.50 and 134.00, even exceeding those supply zones as price goes further and further northwards.

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There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which would become more and more serious as price goes northwards. Short trades are not recommended here.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for April 16, 2018

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is bearish in the long-term, and bullish in the short-term. There is a weak short-term bullishness owing to the fact that price made some effort to go upwards last week, gaining only 80 pips. Price managed to briefly breach the supply level at 107.50, but it could not close above it on Friday (it closed below it).

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However, price would be able to go above the supply level at 107.50; even reaching other supply levels at 108.50, 109.00 and 109.50. This is owing to the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for April 16, 2018

USD/CHF

There is some form of bullishness on the USD/CHF pair. Since the support level at 0.9200 was breached on February 16, price has moved upwards by 440 pips, closing above the support level at 0.9600 on Friday. This week is supposed to be bullish, because USD will likely gain some stamina against certain currencies like EUR, CHF, AUD and NZD (with the exception of GBP). The first object of attack this week is the resistance level at 0.9650.

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There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and price is expected to go upwards, as the EUR/USD goes southwards. The support levels at 0.9500 and 0.9450 would try to impede any southward attempts.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 16, 2018

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair retreated from 0.7395 (the high of April 13) and broke below its rising trend line since April 11, which confirmed a bearish outlook. The declining 50-period moving average is acting as a resistance. The relative strength index is mixed with bearish bias. Hence, as long as 0.7370 is not surpassed, look for a drop with targets at 0.7320 and 0.7300 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7395, 0.7415, and 0.7450

Support levels: 0.7320, 0.7300, and 0.7265.

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Global macro overview for 16/04/2018

Contrary to the majority of the market participants expectations, the S&P rating agency decided to increase the outlook for Poland's rating from stable to positive. The agency expects a strong expansion of the economy in 2018 in view of solid external demand, generous transfers from the EU and the resilience of the foundations of the Polish economy. The revision also points to the growing conviction that reforms of the tax administration have generated a secular increase in public revenues at the level of about 0.5% of GDP. The latter issue could have outweighed the change in the rating, despite maintaining the opinion on the presence of a number of risks, including an increase in the budgetary pressure on the part of the shrinking and aging working-age population.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/PLN technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pair stability this morning suggests that a part of the PLN strengthening at the end of last week could be matched by the positioning of investors in the event of a revision of the outlook, as a result of which the continuation of the strengthening is not certain. The market has slipped towards the parallel channel lower line around the level of 4.16, which is as well the technical support for the price. The market conditions look oversold, so the bounce towards the nearest technical resistance is possible soon. Nevertheless, the PLN remains dependent on fluctuations in external sentiment and the recent improvement in sentiment is conducive to EUR/PLN slippage, although, in the wider perspective, the market is not clearly visible.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 16, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $8.030. Bitcoin in Brief today is slanted toward a crypto winter slowly thawing, as Pantera Capital bets on a moonshot price point. Besides, the world's most popular decentralized digital asset has been forked more than a plate of good pasta; there's a growing list of countries who're less likely to nab your crypto profits; Yahoo! smashes rumors; and a good-hearted wager between bitcoin core and bitcoin cash partisans exemplifies how ecosystem actors should treat one another. Technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the Daily time - frame, there is a breakout of falling wedge and flat base, which is sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 8.837.

Support/Resistance

$8.342 – Intraday resistance

$7.926– Intraday support

$8.837– Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Global macro overview for 16/04/2018

The Syrian affair had an unpleasant development over the weekend, but the market reaction is surprisingly almost invisible. A drop of USD/JPY by 30 pips, or fluctuations in the price of Gold within 0.5% are not worth describing. Suggestions that military action will not turn into a longer campaign (President Trump said that "the mission was done") help calm the reaction. Nevertheless, the continuation of the conflict is not excluded: Trump warned that he would respond to the next attack with the use of chemical weapons; President Putin warns against the "chaos" that may arise from subsequent attacks on Syria; The US is ready to impose sanctions on other Russian companies that may be suspected of ties to the Syrian regime. In the intervals between macro data publications, information services (and social networks) remain to be monitored in the event of unexpected messages.

It is possible that Monday will be used by investors to confirm whether you can really ignore weekend events, or whether there is a reason to reduce risky positions. The technical picture on pairs with AUD, NZD and JPY indicates ugly corrections and unsuccessful breaking out of significant technical levels. At least it may cool the enthusiasm for continuing the trends from last week. However, if the next day remains calm, the return of risk-on is the path along the line of the least resistance.

The main point of the calendar on Monday is retail sales from the USA. Expectations are on the positive side (0.4% m/m) after a series of three readings at -0.1%. Despite this, global investors must not forget that the USD has a problem to clearly gain after good publications, but the disappointments are carefully reflected by the market.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. There is no dramatic improvement in the US Dollar price so far, neither the markets are willing to drop lower. The recent breakout below the intraday support at the level of 89.63 is still within the daily range as the key technical support remains at the level of 89.35. On the other hand, the key technical resistance is seen at the level of 89.96. Neutral bias is being continued untli one of this levels is violated.

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EUR/USD analysis for April 16, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2365. According to the M30 time – frame, I found a confirmed intraday ascending triangle, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.2395 and 1.2440.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2350

R2: 1.2367

R3: 1.2387

Support levels:

S1: 1.2310

S2: 1.2290

S3: 1.2270

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 16, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair will probably continue to rise from the level of 1.2345 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.2307 which represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.2345. So, buy above the level of 1.2345 with the first target at 1.2398 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.2432. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.2432 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.2307, a further decline to 1.2217 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 16, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to trade upwards from the level of 1.4225 (the daily pivot point). Last week, the pair rose from the level of 1.4170 (the level of 1.4170 is coincided with the major support today) to the top around 1.4296. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.4364 followed by 1.4426, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.4170. According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.4225 and 1.4364; for that we expect a range of 139 pips (1.4364 - 1.4225) at least in coming days. If the GBP/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.4364, the market will decline further to 1.4170. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards 1.4170 with a view to test the daily support. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.4364, then the trend will continue to move towards the next target of 1.4426.

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The pound is preparing to update its high

Eurozone

This week will be poor for macroeconomic indicators, which can change the prospects for the euro. On Tuesday, the ZEW Institute will present an economic sentiment index for the month of April. Most similar studies indicate a slowdown in activity.

On Wednesday, there will be data on consumer inflation for the month of March. Inflation is already slowing down throughout this year, giving the ECB the opportunity to evade the curtailment of the incentive program and, according to forecasts, the market will not see any positive changes on Wednesday.

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The rhetoric of the ECB leadership against the backdrop of a slowdown in the euro zone economy is becoming more mild. With the rate at which the forecasts are changing, the first increase has been postponed until Q3 2019. Perhaps the markets will be shaken by the speech of the chief economist of the ECB Praet or at least the players will need benchmarks that are presently absent.

The euro continues to trade in a range that tends to narrow and is currently in an unstable equilibrium situation. In the first days of the week, trading will take place within the area of 1.2200 - 1.2470, without the obvious advantage of any of the parties.

United Kingdom

The British pound finished the week with growth, based on the increasing probability of a rate hike by the Bank of England. Despite weak GDP growth, inflation, and the labor market's status, the BoE is given an opportunity that it will most likely take advantage of in order to gain an additional argument in the battle for financial flows after the country leaves the EU.

The pound will receive several rather important signals this week. The threat of a rate hike by the Bank of England in May compels us to pay more attention to the key parameters of the economy, so the report on the labor market on Tuesday will cause increased interest. The forecast is positive. The average wage is expected to increase and the number of applications for unemployment is reduced. The data may increase the likelihood of an increase in the rate and lead to an increase in the pound.

On Wednesday, the report on inflation for the month of March will be published. The forecasts are neutral but some slowdown in price growth by the market is almost ignored, as the influence of the weak pound is dying out.

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Technically, the pound looks more than confident. The probability of updating the three-year maximum set in January is quite high. The breakthrough of the wedge opens the way to the level of 1.4340 and further to the upper boundary of the rising channel at 1.44.

Oil

Oil continues to trade above three-year lows, focusing on the main indicator, which affects quotes on the balance of supply and demand. The efforts of OPEC + give the result. The IEA already predicts that in May, the balance in the market will finally be reached. The commercial reserves of the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development fell in March to 2.841 billion barrels, and in May, according to the IEA, it will approach the average for 5 years.

Traders practically do not pay attention to the reports of Baker Hughes, which show stable growth of active drilling rigs and should somewhat cool the demand, neither on API commercial inventory reports. Its role is also played by the complication of the geopolitical situation after the US missile struck against targets in Syria and the production in Venezuela sharply declined.

Support for Brent is at the level of 68.50, within the correction it is possible to decrease to this level, but strategically the prices are aimed at 80 dollars per barrel. This can be reached in the perspective of the month.

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GBP/USD analysis for April 16, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.4279. According to the M30 time – frame, I found a rising bottom and hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential upward targets. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.4310 and at the price of 1.4340.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4283

R2: 1.4327

R3: 1.4360

Support levels:

S1: 1.4207

S2: 1.4176

S3: 1.4130

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Burning forecast 04/16/2018

Burning forecast 04/16/2018

EURUSD: Waiting for the breakthrough of the range.

Military tension in Syria has decreased. The tension in the US-China trade dispute is not yet in the near term.

Thus, the markets are ready for growth - starting with the US and European markets, where there are attractive prices after a deep correction.

This will also trigger movement in currency pairs.

Strong news on the US economy is not - but it is possible to increase volatility at the time of data on retail sales at 12:30 PM London time.

We expect the euro to rise to a key level of 1.2400, a breakout to the top and the continuation of a strong upward movement.

Buy from 1.2400, stop at 1.2355, profit at1.2680.

Alternative: Sell from 1.2213, stop at 1.2258, profit at 1.2000.

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Bitcoin analysis for 16/04/2018

After the investment mogul Tim Draper said this week that Bitcoin could make up to $ 250,000 by 2022, Brian Kelly supported this forecast in a TV interview. In response to the question about Draper's high predictions, Kelly replied that although it sounds crazy, considering that Bitcoin has grown by 4,000 percent in two years and 3,000 percent in four years, it could be a continuation of the trend. Kelly continues, noting that the growth of institutionalized money in the cryptographic sphere - Rockefeller's VC arm, Executive Goldman Sachs and Soros Fund Management - can make the cryptocurrency variability decrease, making it easier to use as real currencies and will only need four years to reach Draper's price point suggested in 2022. At the moment, the most common use of cryptocurrencies in the opinion of Brian Kelly are citizens of countries where there are no reliable governments or banking systems. Asked why someone would risk losing 20 percent or more by investing in cryptocurrencies, he replied: "Well, it's better than to lose 100 percent if your assets are taken over by a dishonest government".

The key aspect in which Bitcoin reaches $ 250,000 by 2022 or $ 25,000 by the end of 2018 is to increase the volume of transactions. Moreover, this week, Crypto Pantera Capital hedge fund also predicted that Bitcoin will reach $ 20,000 again by the end of this year, and $ 6,500 was the likely bottom.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a bottom of the wave (c) of the wave Y at the level of $6,400 and since then the new cycle up has developed. The recent high for this cycle was made at the level of $8,355 and was labeled as the top of the potential wave (1) or (a). Currently, the market is in the corrective cycle wave (2)/(b), so a potential test of the level of $7,500 is possible before the uptrend will resume.

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Technical analysis on USDX for April 16, 2018

Bears remain in control of the Dollar index as long as the price is below the 90.30-90 level. The trend remains bearish as price is still below the Ichimoku cloud. The price is trying to break back above the previously broken downward sloping resistance trend line at 89.85.

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Blue lines - trading range

On a daily basis, there is no trend change as price remains inside the trading range and below the Daily cloud. Bulls need to overcome the 90-90.30 resistance for a possible bounce towards 91.70. On the other hand, a rejection here below the cloud and a break below 89.30 will open the way for a push back to 2018 lows.

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Technical analysis on Gold for April 16, 2018

The Gold price continues to trade inside the $1,360-$1,300 range. The price is near the upper boundary and below resistance. There is a danger of seeing a push lower towards $1,300 as long as we remain below $1,350.

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Magenta line - long-term resistance

Black line - short-term support

The Gold price is in a bullish trend as long as the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. However, the price remains in a sideways neutral trend for the last few weeks as the price is trapped between $1,365 and $1,300. Last weeks rejection and reversal at $1,365 was not a good sign. However, bulls have hopes of retesting this level as long as they remain above $1,340-33 area. Break this support and we go to $1,320-$1,300 area. Break above $1,350-65 area and we go to $1,400-$1,450.

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Trading plan for 16/04/2018

The missile attack of the US, the UK, and France in Syria did not make panic on the financial markets yet. The currency market is calm, JPY is the strongest, but USD/JPY stopped the falls before 10 7.10. After AUD and NZD, there is no increase after the recent drops. The Asian stock market is drawing a mixed picture: Nikkei gains 0.2% on the Asian stock market, but Shanghai Composite loses 1.8%. SP500 futures are growing 0.3%. Gold in the first reaction after the weekend approached to 1348 USD, but already goes back to 1344 USD. WTI oil has lost $ 0.5 and is now at 66.8 USD.

On Monday 16th of April, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Index data from the US. Moreover, there is a scheduled speech from FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic later in the evening.

EUR/USD analysis for 16/04/2018:

The geopolitical situation is the most important fundamental issue the global investors should focus on these days.The missile attack on targets suspected of linking to a chemical attack from a week ago did not make panic on the financial markets yet. Investors are waiting for the situation to develop, although the subdued reaction of Russia does not force aversion of risk. US President Trump warned the Syrian government that the US is ready to strike again if the chemical attack repeats itself. President Putin, in a telephone conversation with his Iranian counterpart, said that the world will witness "chaos" if the attack on Syria is repeated.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After a failure to break out above the 61% Fibo the market dropped towards the level of 1.2320 and made a new low at the level of 1.2297. Since then the price is locked in a tight horizontal zone between the levels of 1.2297 - 1.2395 and the momentum indicator is hovering around the neutral fifty level. The market participants might be now in a waiting mode to see how the fundamental situation is developing.

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Markets do not see a threat to stability

The dollar ended the week with a slight increase, which is natural before the weekend, but the long-term trend is still unclear. The blow to Syria did not lead to a significant reaction of the markets, the demand for safe haven assets practically did not increase, the markets did not see the threat of escalation.

The preliminary value of the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in April was 97.8p, which is below 101.4p in March and below forecasts, but the overall trend continues to remain confidently high. The last spike in the index occurred during the period of Donald Trump's presidency and is connected with the tax reform, which contributes to the growth of consumption due to lower costs.

On Tuesday, April 16, data on retail sales in March will be published. Growth is expected amid high consumer activity. As reported by the Bank of America, spending on goods of everyday demand increased significantly in March, the result is not worse than expectations and will support the dollar.

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It was assumed that this week will be marked by the development of trade contradictions between the US and China. Despite the fact that both sides are not interested in escalating the dispute, the US, by some criteria, simply has no choice. The Ministry of Finance, analyzing capital flows, provides a graph of the state of the current account of the largest countries, from which it can be seen that the largest deficit is in the USA, and the surplus is in Germany, Japan and China. The growth of the current account deficit usually precedes the financial crisis, as it points to the tendency of borrowing growth when trying to maintain the current level of consumption, this was the case in 2000-2006, which led to a huge financial crisis.

Trump tries to prevent an unfolding of similar events, trying to rectify the trade imbalance. An increase in the Fed's rate will lead to the fact that the debt service will become the largest part of federal budget spending, and reducing the balance, to which the Fed has already started last fall, will put the government in front of the need to seek new buyers of public debt.

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It is possible to break out of this trap by conducting several counter procedures simultaneously. First, it is necessary to achieve production growth directly in the United States in order to increase tax collection and reduce imports. Secondly, it is necessary to reduce the trade deficit by any means, which the Trump administration does by regulating the tariffs in its favor. And thirdly, it is necessary to maintain a high level of capital inflow through both the repatriation mechanism and foreign capital, which requires an appropriate foreign policy.

The policy of the Fed and the government, at first glance, contradict each other, but from the Trump administration we still have not heard a single word of protest against the tightening of monetary policy, and it makes the life of the government much more difficult. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Kashkari said on Friday that the problems of the Treasury and the level of public debt are not the problems of the Fed, and these criteria are not guided by the regulator when developing his monetary policy. The Fed will continue to adhere to the policy of normalization, which can lead to tightening of financial conditions and bring a new crisis closer, according to various estimates, it can be developed this year.

A report on industrial production in March will be published on Tuesday. The latest ISM and Markit data indicate that the growth momentum is maintained, so the final data may come out better than expected.

In general, the week will not be interesting from the point of view of macroeconomic releases, the focus will be primarily on foreign policy and negotiations with the main trading partners. The dollar index to growth is not seen and will trade within the established trading ranges in anticipation of new information.

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